UK2030 - October 2017: City AM by Lyonsdown

SOMETHING IN THE AIR We must embrace electric cars to tackle urban pollution

INFORMATION NATION We have the big data – learning to use it is the big challenge

AUTOMATING THE FUTURE By 2030, robots could be helping us with the laundry

Page 2

Page 3

Page 7

AWARD-WINNING BUSINESS JOURNALISM • OCTOBER 2017

Why we’ll be sharing everything in 2030 SPECIAL REPORT: UK2030 Rachel Botsman’s TED Talks have been watched by 3.5 million people. We speak to her about whether we should trust technology in 2030

DISTRIBUTED WITHIN CITY AM, PRODUCED AND PUBLISHED BY LYONSDOWN WHICH TAKES SOLE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CONTENTS

BUSINESS-REPORTER.CO.UK

October 2017

AN INDEPENDENT REPORT FROM LYONSDOWN, DISTRIBUTED WITH CITY AM

business-reporter.co.uk

Business Reporter UK

@biznessreporter

We need to embrace electric vehicles if the air pollution in our cities is to reach acceptable levels OPENING SHOTS JOANNE FREARSON

ITH AIR pollution now at critical life threatening levels in cities such as London, moving into 2030 the government needs to look at ways we can make our cities cleaner. London in particular has an extremely dangerous air pollution problem and 7.9 million Londoners – 95 per cent of the capital’s population – live in areas exceeding World Health Organisation air quality guidelines by at least 50 per cent. It is widely acknowledged that the dangerous toxic air particles known as PM2.5 have a big impact on health following both short and long-term exposure and increase the likelihood of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Research has found these toxic air particles have resulted in 29,000 premature deaths in the UK every year, while children exposed to them are more likely to grow up with reduced lung function and develop asthma. The main sources of PM2.5 emissions in

London are from tyre and brake wear, construction and wood burning, with around half of PM2.5 in London from external sources outside the city. The mayor, Sadiq Khan, is planning to get pollution levels within WHO guidelines by 2030. The push now for 2030 is for people to switch to electric cars instead of diesel or petrol. Jaguar Land Rover has already announced that all its new cars launched will be electrified by 2020, while Aston Martin will produce its first allelectric model RapidE in 2019. The mayor has also called on all vehicle manufacturers to take serious action of diesel emission and contribute to his Air Quality Fund. The government is planning to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2040. Other projects, which could be in fruition by 2030 in the UK and potentially, help make our environment cleaner as well as reduce our energy needs, are driverless cars. As well as being electric they will also use the internet of things (IoT)

The European Information Security Summit 2017 Building an agile cybersecurity culture Etc Venues County Hall, London 21-22 February 2017

“London in particular has extremely dangerous air pollution – 95 per cent of the capital’s population live in areas exceeding the WHO’s air quality guidelines by at least 50 per cent”

to gather data about what is happening on our transport networks in our cities. Through IoT driverless cars will be able to talk to traffic lights, and other cars to understand where there are congestion spots. They would be able to drive in a way which uses the least amount of energy – for example, platoon driving, where vehicles drive closely to one another matching their speed and braking patterns to improve aerodynamics, traffic flow and performance. As driverless cars can drive themselves around and free up the need to have your car in one spot for a day, people may choose they do not need to own a car so much. By 2030 two-car families could become one-car families. Driverless cars could become part of the sharing economy, where instead owning a car people will use them on a sharing basis. Wherever we are in 2030, when it comes to driverless cars, the UK has to take action to make our cities cleaner.

October 2017

AN INDEPENDENT REPORT FROM LYONSDOWN, DISTRIBUTED WITH CITY AM

facebook.com/biznessreporter

info@lyonsdown.co.uk

We have the big data – but learning to use it will be the big challenge of 2030 To prosper in an era of total information needs strong and imaginative leadership – Joanne Frearson talks to entrepreneur Andy Hobsbawm about what to expect in 2030

Y 2030 data gathered in the UK through the Internet of Things (IoT) will help companies gain a better understanding of their business and projects, as well as make cities smarter and more energy efficient. “Companies that will really thrive will be the ones that look most like the ones that are succeeding today,” says Andy Hobsbawm, founder of EVRYTHNG, at a Design & Disruptive Technologies event in London. “If you look at Amazon, Apple, Google, Netflix and Uber, they share this ability to have a complete instrumentation of absolutely everything.” By using IoT data, he points out, companies will be able to gain a better understanding of what happens in their business. They will be able to examine how materials are sourced, manufactured, distributed and where products are stocked, sold and disposed of, giving them a complete 100 per cent view of the customer. “Data processing and analytics technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning and other forms of cloud intelligence will allow businesses to operate in that way,” he says. According to Hobsbawm, everything brought to market by 2030 will have AI or machine-learning data-analytical techniques applied, to help companies understand what products and services they should bring out next. He also thinks that by 2030 we will be in a far different environment because of climate change, and companies will be using IoT data to help reduce our energy needs. “Climate change will be the biggest existential force which is going to shape business,” he says. “A low-carbon economy is going to cause enormous pressure, which ties back to IoT in the sense that smartness and intelligence is a way of creating much greater efficiencies.” For example, sensors will be able to determine what level of lighting or airconditioning you need in a room, enabling commercial enterprises to be able to use energy much more efficiently. “The fact that you can apply sensors and chips to gather information, control objects and

Video campaigns from Transforming Tax SPOTLIGHT ON… • Tax going digital • R&D tax relief • Workers’ rights

Look out for the following titles coming in November and December… Transforming Wealth & Asset Management The Future of Supply Chain Selfcare: A guide to taking control of your health The Future of Retail The Future of Insurance Digital & Data Economy Disruptive technologies, focusing on 5G/IOT

generate data from objects means that you can write an algorithm that says, [for example] that I want to look at the average temperature of every room in these 5,000 hotel rooms,” adds Hobsbawm. “If you can automatically adjust temperatures down it can save a huge amount of energy.” In other areas, transport can also be co-ordinated much more efficiently from a logistical and supply chain point of view. Hobsbawm says: “One of the things that is interesting about modern transportation is that it is so interconnected – there are all sorts of dependencies. You notice that when you suddenly have a flight delay, that impacts the car pick up, the hotel reservation or a friend that is meeting you – all these different elements, because we live in this hugely connected real-time world.” IoT brings the ability to automate the exchange of data between those things. If one event happens you can co-ordinate the other event. But moving into 2030, Hobsbawm believes the challenges businesses will face in getting to this stage will be skills. He says: “If you want to get specific right now I would say things like Brexit are unimaginably disastrous for our future,

because what you are doing is suddenly potentially cutting off the enormous access to qualified skills and labour to realise that vision. “People involved in technology are throwing up their hands in despair [at] this idea that you would suddenly make it harder to get access to the talent and skills that you need to build up these services. “T hat is one example of crazy political policy that has real implications. Generally there is a wider question of education. Do we have the right education programmes to be able to teach the [workforce of the] next generation to know what to do in that world and be able to take us forward?” But one way or another, the UK will be a very different place by 2030, with technologies such as IoT data, AI and machine learning changing how businesses manage projects, view their customers and make products, while cities will become smarter and more energy efficient. But the challenges still lie ahead, and Hobsbawm would like to see genuine political leadership emerge in the UK by 2030, to move things forward and meet the challenges of the coming decades.

To watch these videos, and for more information, go to business-reporter.co.uk/category/video

October 2017

AN INDEPENDENT REPORT FROM LYONSDOWN, DISTRIBUTED WITH CITY AM

business-reporter.co.uk

Business Reporter UK

@biznessreporter

Heathrow expansion: building for the future “Heathrow expansion is a national project that will drive growth, create jobs and boost tourism across the UK”

30% In 2016, Heathrow handled more than 30 per cent of UK exports by value to global markets outside the EU and Switzerland Source: uktradeinfo.com

ITH BREXIT talks ongoing, there is no shortage of views on the UK’s position, its negotiating strategy, and, ultimately, what kind of country the UK wants to be. But across political parties, and across the Leave/Remain divide, there appears to be broad consensus on one issue – that the UK needs to maintain and strengthen its international connections. That way, Britain can ensure exports and expertise continues to flow out to the world, with tourists and investment able to flow in. This is why, one year ago, the government decided to support expansion at Heathrow, the UK’s only hub airport and soon to be Europe’s largest privately funded infrastructure project. It was a decision to equip Britain and the next generation with the infrastructure to trade with the world and to connect all of the UK to new global opportunities. Heathrow plays a unique role in the UK economy, connecting businesses of all sizes to global markets and supporting trade across the country. Nearly 76 million passengers travelled through the airport in 2016, and it handled more than 30 per cent of UK exports by value to markets outside the EU and Switzerland. From pharmaceuticals flown to Africa, components heading to the next F1 race or Scottish salmon going to China, Heathrow is Britain’s gateway for high-value, time-sensitive products being exported to foreign markets. Heathrow expansion will allow more UK trading routes with up to 40 new long-haul destinations, to make Britain the best-connected country in the world. Aside from new links to the world, national infrastructure projects such as Heathrow expansion are unique in the opportunities they create at home. Building a new rail route or runway creates jobs, growth and new opportunities. These projects can be the path to a skilled career for the engineering apprentice in Hounslow, or provide connections to new markets for the small business trader in Newcastle. As the UK prepares for a future outside the EU, building the right infrastructure and capitalising on these opportunities is vital to securing the UK’s status as a strong and connected nation. Projects such as Heathrow expansion send a signal to the world showing confidence in the UK’s future. Expansion will allow Heathrow to double its cargo capacity, create dozens of new long-haul trading routes and increase its domestic connections, giving more businesses the opportunity to trade with the world.

Connecting Britain to growth Heathrow may be in west London, but as the UK’s hub airport it supports growth and investment in every region and nation, and will

and Terminal 5, working with suppliers of all sizes from across the UK. For Terminal 2, electrical systems were made in the West Midlands. Steel came from Sheffield, the floors of the car park from Glasgow, and even the joinery and fit-out of the toilets was completed in Northern Ireland. With expansion, there’s an opportunity to go a step further and deliver a strategy centred on off-site manufacture, reducing costs, creating skilled jobs in UK regions, and building more safely and more sustainably. Heathrow has started the process to find four logistics hubs across the UK, receiving dozens of applications from interested sites covering every region and nation. It will be longlisting sites later this year. This innovative approach supports a legacy of construction excellence and skills around the country that can be exported to the world, and build up the reputation and profile of SMEs across the UK who will help to deliver Britain’s new runway. Closer to home, Heathrow is working with the local community to identify the skills tomorrow’s workforce will need. Expansion will support 10,000 apprenticeships, giving local young people the opportunity to begin a skilled career. In addition, the airport has established a Skills Taskforce, under the chairmanship of Lord Blunkett, to provide recommendations to Heathrow on using expansion to help the next generation of young people to fulfil their potential, and help the airport become a role model for diversity and social mobility.

Heathrow’s expansion will boost business and travel for Britain and the world

2017 Grimshaw Architects

deliver expansion in the national interest. That is why Heathrow is taking steps to boost domestic connectivity, supporting new routes from regions not currently linked to Heathrow, while improving and protecting current routes, to ensure the opportunities of expansion are unlocked for the whole country. The airport has recently unveiled an ambitious new nine-point plan to improve the UK’s connectivity to Heathrow, and via Heathrow, to growth markets around the world. The plan includes a £10million Route Development Fund to help establish new connections to UK airports from an expanded Heathrow, and a £10 passenger discount to domestic departing passenger charges to make domestic routes more affordable for passengers and businesses. This will allow more businesses across the country, from the smallest SME to the largest exporter, to trade on a global scale. The plan also outlines how Heathrow is supporting the right mode of transport for the right journey, with support for planned rail and improved bus and coach links to connect more communities across the country to the benefits of an expanded Heathrow and

ensure that at least 50 per cent of airport passenger journeys are made by public and sustainable transport by 2030. Better air and surface connections will supercharge the benefits of an expanded Heathrow, boosting local economies across Britain, and driving tourism and investment into each and every region – helping secure the UK’s economic future.

Securing a skills legacy for Britain’s future Projects such as Heathrow expansion, while creating jobs across the country during construction, present an opportunity to harness talent and create a legacy of skills for generations to come, helping to prepare the UK for its future outside the EU. Heathrow’s supply chain strategy for expansion is an opportunity to draw on talent and resources from across the country to build the new runway sustainably, and revolutionise the entire UK construction industry by harnessing a new approach to manufacture and assembly. Over the last decade, Heathrow has invested £11billion, including in Terminal 2

Building for the future Heathrow expansion is a national project that will drive growth, create jobs and boost tourism across the UK. It is supported by businesses, trade unions, more than 40 chambers of commerce across the country and the UK government. In the last 12 months since the government threw its weight behind Heathrow expansion, it has started the planning process for Britain’s new runway, and is preparing for public consultation on its plans. Heathrow is playing its part to make sure Britain and its businesses can be competitive in the early years of Brexit. This important era for British infrastructure is a chance to strengthen the national economy for the long term, and boost communities and businesses all over the UK. Bold decisions, such as government backing for Heathrow expansion, will help ensure a thriving, sustainable economy for future generations. That’s why Heathrow is getting on with building Britain’s new runway. INDUSTRY VIEW

@YourHeathrow www.heathrow.com/expansion

October 2017

AN INDEPENDENT REPORT FROM LYONSDOWN, DISTRIBUTED WITH CITY AM

facebook.com/biznessreporter

info@lyonsdown.co.uk

Staying human in the age of machines Award-winning author and trust expert Rachel Botsman talks to Business Reporter about how we need to keep hold of our human qualities if we are to make the most of the coming age of technology

“We need to be asking very tough questions. This is where the pendulum has swung – onto technology companies. The questions we need to ask are not technical, they are ethical”

ENOWNED FOR her TED talks on collaborative consumption and trust, and viewed by more than 3.5 million people, Rachel Botsman believes we are at a tipping point of social transformation. Her new book, Who Can You Trust? How Technology Brought Us Together And Why It Could Drive Us Apart, talks about a new world order emerging. By 2030, she thinks technology will rewrite the way we do things and who we trust in business. “One of the most interesting things [going into 2030 in the UK] will be when we decide to trust an artificial intelligence machine over a human to make decisions that a human would make,” she tells Business Reporter over the phone from a conference in Helsinki, where she has just delivered a presentation. “The one we keep thinking about is self-driving cars – that is a really good example, where it feels very risky to trust a machine over a human being,” she continues. “But I think by 2030 we could be at a place where we ask, do we trust human drivers?” The assumption that humans are automatically better at certain things than robots, she believes, is often a misguided one. “There is a tendency to look at technology and look at automation and say it is all bad, but human beings are not particular good drivers and there are places where trust and technology will really improve our daily lives,” she says. There could come a time over the next decade, she explains, where we might think we are interacting with a human doctor, financial adviser or therapist when they are really a machine. “If you think about our basic needs, a lot of areas in our lives – banking, food, products, the way we move from A to B – we will outsource our trust to an algorithm and machine [to oversee].” The main challenges she expects by 2030 will come in the form of “understanding the intentions and ethics of algorithms that are visible to us. It is the way those machines make decisions. The average human being cannot understand how they are being programmed. We have to trust the intention of people who understand these algorithms. “We need to be asking very tough questions,” she explains. “This is where the pendulum has swung – on to technology companies. The questions we need to ask them are

not technical, they are ethical. We have not figured out the ethical implications of this.” Even so, Botsman believes it will be the ethical companies that admit that they don’t understand the unintended consequences who will be the winners in the long run. Although there could be some confusion between what is a machine and what is human, Botsman does not think AI will be able to replace everything. Just as companies will need to look at the ethical consequences of AI systems on humans to be the winners, they will also have to inject some kind of “human-ness” into experiences. As well as the ethical dilemma the preponderance of AI will create, as technology progresses over the next decade Botsman expects it will shift peoples’ trust from corporates to individuals. “For a long period in history we have placed our trust in governments, banks, lawyers and corporate brands,” she points out. “What technology does is pull it away from the top and distributes it through networks and systems and marketplaces. “We are heading into this age where people will trust individuals more that institutions – whether that is influence over what music they should listen to or movies they should watch. The shift is only g oi n g to b e c om e m or e amplified.” Botsman believes that what we now call the “sharing economy” will by 2030 have become

Below: Rachel Botsman believes AI will precipitate a fundamental change in our working lives and relationships

just a way of doing business. “The next stage is individuals realising that all around them in their own lives they create excess capacity that they could monetise value from […] and be able to share in real time with one another,” she says. “At the moment it is about companies aggregating these assets.” According to Botsman the technology that will enable these transformations will be blockchain. As blockchain works through shared digital ledger technology, which records a transaction publically, people will be able to transfer assets and make micropayments without the need for a trusted third party to oversee the transaction. This bypasses the need to use a platform powered by a huge corporate entity to buy something, allowing people to simply sell what they don’t need – such as minutes on a phone – using blockchain. We’ll also be able to use blockchain to prove authenticity – as each transaction is recorded visibly a history of an item is built up and its legitimacy verified. Botsman believes this will have huge implications in the area of high-end goods – “things like artworks, fine wines, diamonds or jewellery, where you need the digital identity of something and it is largely dependent on paper”. As technology makes individuals more visible online, people will start to obtain trust and reputation scores, similar to the credit scores we have today.

Says Botsman: “The way we are assessed and the way someone might judge how we might behave will be more and more dependent on these trust scores. We will have a reputation score – a credit score will seem like a relic of the past. All this data will feed from what we buy and how we behave in different kind of communities and that will inform our ability to get a loan, health insurance… it will help predict our future behaviour.” But there is a danger. “There are many dark implications from that,” Bostman warns. “What we don’t want is one big popularity contest where everyone is rating one another and I might unfriend someone else because they are bringing my score down. [There’s a danger of] that constant society surveillance, where it is gamified obedience.” Another problem the technology could create is that of echo chambers and filter bubbles. “Technology naturally organises people into groups that are similar or familiar to them,” Botsman says. “What we need to do is break that and actually have interactions and trust people that on the surface seem like they are untrustworthy.” “If we can actually use these networks to discover new people to trust, what it could do for diversity, inclusion and collaboration would be phenomenal – actually looking at how it can overcome human bias and discrimination [rather than] just amplifying the way society is today.”

October 2017

AN INDEPENDENT REPORT FROM LYONSDOWN, DISTRIBUTED WITH CITY AM

business-reporter.co.uk

Business Reporter UK

@biznessreporter

Why the future robotic workforce should be working alongside humans, not replacing them

HE SKILLS needed to undertake successful projects in the workplace are likely to be a lot different by 2030, as automation, artificial intelligence, machine learning and robots change the way we work, according to a new report. The report, undertaken by Pearson, Nesta and the Oxford Martin School and entitled The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030, found that one in five workers were in occupations that face a high likelihood of decline and only one in 10 people was highly likely to experience a rise in demand for their skills. Hasan Bakhshi, executive director of creative economy and data analytics at Nesta, said: “While there is no shortage of research assessing the impacts of automation on individual occupations, there is far less that focuses on skills, and even less so that has actionable insights for stakeholders in areas like job redesign and learning priorities. The future of work for most people is not inevitable.” In the UK, the occupations forecast to most likely experience a rise in employment were associated with education, healthcare

and wider public-sector occupations. Creative, digital, design, and engineering occupations were also found to have bright outlooks, with architecture and green occupations to benefit from greater urbanisation and the need to build a more sustainable environment. However, a decline in employment was forecast in occupations related to transport and traditional manufacturing. The report found that projects being managed in manufacturing production were turning towards technology to improve productivity and were predicted to see a fall in workforce share. Philippe Schneider, researcher and coauthor of the report, said: “Jobs are the cornerstone of our social and economic lives. Today many are concerned that jobs face a period of sustained disruption – not only as a result of automation but also globalisation, demographic and environmental change and political uncertainty. “Thinking systematically about these trends cannot give conclusive answers on what is around the corner, but it can provide clues and challenge imaginations as we

“The future of work is brighter than conventional wisdom suggests. It is not going to be human versus machine, but rather human and machine” – John Fallon, Pearson

design policies to improve the adaptability and employability of our workforces.” The study showed strong social skills would be the key to success as demand for soft skills unique to humans rose. These included social perceptiveness, active learning, active listening, judgment and decision making. In addition, cognitive skills such as fluency of ideas, originality and oral expression were forecast to increase in demand – whereas physical abilities, such as stamina and depth perception, were forecast to decline as technology takes over. “The future of work is brighter than conventional wisdom suggests – it is not going to be human versus machine, but rather human and machine,” said John Fallon, CEO of Pearson. “It is clear that technology is changing the global economy and labour markets, but we still retain the ability to control our destiny. We must reevaluate the skills people will need for a digital future, and update our education systems to ensure teachers have the right tools to help students succeed in the workforce of tomorrow.”

Strong, principled chief executives will drive the businesses of the future forwards “Mastery requires commitment, focus and effort – it is a never-ending journey”

Ian Price is CEO, the Academy for Chief Executives

N A time of increasing disruption and turbulence, what does the world need from its CEO leaders? All CEOs will need to be agents of transformation, constantly shaping and enabling the breakdown of what no longer works and allowing the new to break through. In the past CEOs always prepared for the unexpected, but today is different – we all have to accept that we will be unprepared for the unexpected and lead from there. Voracious learning and personal mastery with a high level of resilience will be the hallmark of these next-generation CEOs. They will know that their own state of awareness will be the measure of their abilities to lead, so deep investment in their continuing growth and learning will be the norm. Resilience enables CEOs to prepare for, recover from and adapt in the face of stress, challenge and adversity as well as grab the opportunities that are always presented. The CEO’s goal will always be to lead high-performing sustainable businesses that enable everyone to flourish. In the future, this will require fierce attention not only to the excellence of the business and its operations, but also to the culture,

wellbeing and growth of all employees at a physical, mental, emotional and, increasingly, a spiritual level. Organisations are a reflection of their leadership in terms of language, behaviour and attitudes – particularly attitudes to learning – so CEOs need to be role models and exemplars of what they espouse. The rapid technological and social changes across all sectors and disciplines will

impact all our workforces. This coupled with potential global political and economic volatility will require strong, principled CEOs who live by the tenets of curiosity, courage, collaboration, transparency, humility, creativity, integrit y and compassion – striving for excellence is a given. CEOs will be whole-system thinkers and be able to tap into the zeitgeist of the

times. They will harness the purpose and passion of the whole company towards a compelling vision that brings people and their communities alive. The CEOs of the future are in the present now. Conscious leadership in union with sound commercial acumen is the future. When there is huge change, uncertainty and noise in our world, we become emotionally depleted, so CEOs will need to top up their batteries using all the tools available in their toolbox – and if there aren’t enough, they might even need to get a bigger toolbox. The CEO of the future will be aware of all the pieces on the chessboard – they will know that certain moves will affect the position of the company and that of their colleagues, families and communities. Mastery requires commitment, focus and effort – it is a never-ending journey. The Academy for Chief Executives Unlocking the potential of business leaders. We enable successful business leaders to achieve more for themselves and their businesses. INDUSTRY VIEW

Learn more at www.chiefexecutive.com

October 2017

AN INDEPENDENT REPORT FROM LYONSDOWN, DISTRIBUTED WITH CITY AM

facebook.com/biznessreporter

info@lyonsdown.co.uk

Why the UK could dominate the age of automation Silicon Valley is still the centre of tech innovation – but with a clearer direction, the country that started the first industrial revolution could be at the vanguard of the next. Joanne Frearson talks to two innovators about how that could happen

VER THE next decade in the UK, driverless cars could be transporting us to work, robots washing and drying our clothes and wastemanagement trucks picking up our rubbish on demand. “By 2030 every car will be self-driving,” believes Dr John Bates, CEO of Testplant and author of Thingalytics. “This is going to have a lot of implications for a lot of systems, not just technological, but also ethical.” For example, if a person suddenly steps out in front of a car, it may not be possible for a human driver to stop before hitting them. But when the car is being driven by an AI, sub-micro second decision-making is possible. If someone jumps out in front of the car, there is also an ethical dimension to the course of action to take. “Should all roadways be covered so no-one can even walk across them?” asks Dr Bates. “Should [the AI] make the decision of always protecting the driver or a l w ay s p r o te c t i n g t h e pedestrian?” By 2030, Dr Bates – who has been listed as one of the “Tech 50” most influential technologists by Institutional Investor magazine – points out there will be a whole new set of legislation that is introduced, so governments can ensure driverless cars are safe. They will also have to meet a set of certification standards. Driverless cars will obviously be a huge change to the way we drive, but Bates thinks they will also affect the way we live, work and even interact with each other. “It completely changes my possible commute,” he says. “I can have my car pick up my CTO, and we can have a meeting somewhere. We don’t need to go anywhere – we are already in the office. Maybe there will be people just driving around in their office all the time. We could have these enormous people-movers, around which are mobile offices, clogging up the roadways of the UK. Think of the implications.” Meanwhile, according to Antony Edwards, CTO of software testing firm Testplant, the introduction of driverless cars could also disrupt the way car ownership

is viewed, as people no longer use cars as we do today. “Once you don’t get any joy from driving – because you are not driving – [a car] just becomes a commodity,” Edwards says. “Why would you bother owning it? Everything starts to become a service a lot more.” Car manufacturers have already begun to start to change their business models to become more service-oriented. They now fit sensors in vehicles that can give feedback on how someone is drivi n g. A n d i n s t e a d o f j u s t manufacturers of vehicles, car companies are also becoming big data analytics providers. “Suddenly you know all the telemetry about that vehicle,” says Edwards. “The tyres are talking [via] wireless, [telling you that] if you pump up this tyre you can save 10p a mile on fuel.” Because they understand how you drive because of the data their products feed back to them, car companies could go down the road of leasing parts – such as tyres for example – as a service, rather than selling them. By 2030, as Edwards points out, car ownership itself might be a thing of the distant past. Over the next 10 years it is likely that most of the major cities in the UK will also be using to data to become smarter via the internet of things (IoT). “There will be smart lighting, smart waste management, all interacting with each other,” says Dr Bates.

According to Edwards, one of the first smart city projects local authorities will take up is waste management. “It is one where you can get massive savings,” he says. “You have tags in your bin and it tells you if they are full or not. Around 50 per cent of the trips trucks do are wasted.” He explains that by tagging rubbish the amount of potential waste could be halved. Edwards thinks it could encourage some councils to take more responsibility for the project management of IT infrastructure. Dr Dr Bates, meanwhile, points to personal robotics as being the next big thing by 2030: we’ll have “robots in the home and robots in the cities,” he says. He points out that one of the mundane chores we still have to do in person is filling and emptying the washing machine and dryer, as it is a difficult process to automate. “By 2030 we will have personal home automation that can load the washing machine and dryer,” Dr Dr Bates says. “In smart cities you are going to see some of this as well. You are going to see retailers have shelf-stacking robots – they are already starting to come in.” However, Dr Bates does not think it will be easy getting to this stage by 2030, with the number one challenge being the UK’s attitude to business. “The UK is producing some of the best and most innovative people in the world, but yet how many billiondollar technology companies come

out of the UK? Autonomy, Arm, Sage – that is about it,” he says. “But if you drive around the San Francisco Bay area, there is one on every street corner. There is something going w rong somewhere.” Despite the cynicism, Dr Bates has not given up hope – one of the reasons why he moved back was because he thinks the UK has the chance to dominate smart industries by 2030. “The industrial revolution started in Britain,” Dr Bates says. “This country invented Silicon Valley – now we have lost it. How do we get that back? That is the biggest problem to me. We should lead the way in smart cities. We can do it. We just have to have the right attitude. “This is an old country – the plumbing does not work, the sewers were built in the Victorian era. This is an opportunity because maybe the UK can augment these systems with smart sensors to detect problems and do predictive maintenance before it gets critical. We can augment our cities with technology to make them absolutely cutting edge.” Technology will be disrupting the way we live, work and potentially own things by 2030. And while some of the buildings, infrastructure and systems in the UK may be past their sell-by date, over the next decade many opportunities await – not least the tantalising prospect of finally h av i ng a r ob ot to do t he laundry…

BOO N I I TA R B NG I P L HE S I OW R H T EA H G DIN N A EXP

P X E

S T R

HUGHES CRAFT DISTILLERY, ONE OF THE MANY BUSINESSES ACROSS THE UK THAT SUPPORT HEATHROW EXPANSION

Heathrow is Britain’s biggest port by value for global markets outside the EU and Switzerland, handling over 30% of the UK’s exports. Expansion will double our cargo capacity and create new domestic and international trading routes, helping more businesses across Britain reach out and trade with the world. Heathrow expansion is part of the plan to strengthen Britain’s future. That’s why we are getting on with delivering Britain’s new runway.

Building for the future TRADE INFO IS BY VALUE FOR 2016, EXCLUDES EXPORTS TO EU AND SWITZERLAND AND SOURCED FROM uktradeinfo.com FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT: www.heathrow.com/exports