Volume 20: Issue 4 June 2018
BOTTOM LINE Sharing ideas, solutions, resources and experiences that help dairy producers succeed.
BY THE NUMBERS
Page 3 Water tours coming up
Financial climate better than 1980s
A Page 4 Virtual dairy farm brain is data-overload remedy
Page 6 Manage for opportunities
Page 8 Death and divorce: protect farm assets
s tough as things are in today’s agricultural economy, things were considerably worse just more than 30 years ago. Commodity prices were down at support levels established by the federal Farm Bill and interest rates on farm loans were in the mid to low teens for most of a decade. The combination of low commodity prices and high interest rates resulted in cash-flow problems for Bruce Jones nearly all farmers. But it was particularly hard on farmers who had borrowed heavily to expand their holdings of farmland. Highly leveraged farmers depleted their cash reserves while trying to make up the difference between their net-cash receipts and their loan-repayment obligations. Ultimately those high-debt farmers ran out of cash reserves and had difficulties obtaining the operating loans needed to cover short-run cash deficits. The financial problems of farmers with high debt were further complicated by declines in farmland values. Low farm incomes pushed land values downward. In turn, credit regulators ordered lenders to foreclose on some farm loans. Those foreclosures drastically increased the amount of acres for sale in a short period of time. The influx in the supply of land for sale put significant downward pressures on farmland values. Eventually commodity prices rose, farm incomes increased and farmland values stabilized. When that occurred the financial crisis
for agriculture essentially came to an end. There are now some people in the agricultural community who believe we’re set to go through another farm-financial crisis. It’s true we’re again seeing cash-flow problems as we did prior to the farm-finance crisis of the 1980s. However we’re not dealing with interest rates on farm loans that are well above 10 percent. Instead interest rates on farm loans are about 5 percent. Thanks to those low interest rates, it’s been a bit easier for farmers to stay current on their loan payments. Another important difference between farm-financial conditions 30 years ago and today is the relative stability of farmland values. In the decade prior to the 1980s farm-financial crisis, the average annual percent change in Wisconsin farmland values was almost 17 percent per year. In contrast the average percent change in Wisconsin farmland values during the 2008-2017 period was about 4.5 percent per year. That sizable difference in land-value growth rates is evidence that the farmland market is not operating as it did three decades ago. The high annual growth in land values for the 1971-1980 period is an indication that optimism about future land values was a key driver of the farmland market during that period of time. People bought land fully expecting to reap significant financial gains. Those expectations didn’t coincide with the economic realities. Corrections were instated that prompted the market value of farmland to decrease until it was back in line with the See JONES, Page 2
Professional Dairy Producers I 1-800-947-7379 I www.pdpw.org ™