MADISON year-end Market report
2017 DENVER
Metro Area Real Estate Recap
THESE STATS ARE BASED ON THE FOLLOWING 11 COUNTIES: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Clear Creek, Denver, Douglas, Elbert, Gilpin, Jefferson and Park County
JUSTIN KNOLL BROKER ASSOCIATE, REALTOR® 303-550-0096 JUSTIN@MADISONPROPS.COM 1221 S CLARKSON STREET, SUITE 410 DENVER. CO 80210
In 2017, more Denver homes were sold for higher average and median prices than ever before, and we enter the New Year with the lowest amount of homes for sale on record. When the dust settled, sellers continue to be the clear winners while buyers line up in greater numbers than ever to get in the homeownership club. Predictions are keeping Denver in the top 10 markets in the US, which is making entry into the club harder than ever. The reality is that without any major outside factors, 2018 is going to bring much of the same.
Outside the numbers, homeowners dodged some bullets in the controversial Tax Reform Bill. The Capital Gains Exclusion was kept in its current form and deductions for Mortgage Interest and Property Taxes were preserved as well. If these pieces of law were gone, home values most likely would have declined by as much as 10% right away.
The industry found a new threat in wire fraud attacks on Real Estate transactions, which the FBI estimates diverted or attempted to divert over $1 billion into “criminal” bank accounts in 2017 alone. We took the lead and began offering a Wire Fraud Disclosure to clients that shed light on the issue and saved thousands of dollars in losses. Look for options like bitcoin and blockchain in the market sooner than later as the future of Real Estate appears to be upon us and Denver is front and center, again! - Justin Knoll, President | Madison & Company Properties
Single Family - Detached THIS REPORT IS BASED ON 11 COUNTIES 2017 Year in review
47,509
41,286
TOTAL New Listings YTD in 2017
TOTAL Sold Listings YTD in 2017
Increase from 2016
Increase from 2016
----.51%
----2.27%
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
34 2017
35 2016
33 2015
TOTAL SALES VOLUME YEAR TO DATE
2017
$19,823,060,040
2016
$17,831,837,376
2015
$16,166,899,840
For the calendar year our highest days on market peaked in January 2017 at 48 days. Our lowest fell in June with 24 days on market.
CLOSE PRICE TO LIST PRICE YEAR TO DATE
99.87% 2017
99.96% 2016
100.13% 2015
Single Family - Detached // Month OVER Month Recap
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000 DEC 16’
JAN 17’
FEB 17’
MAR 17’
APR 17’
MAY 17’
JUN 17’
JUL 17’
AUG 17’
ACTIVE
SEP 17’
NEW LISTINGS
OCT 17’
NOV 17’
DEC 17’
UNDER CONTRACT
SOLD
2017 AVERAGE SOLD PRICE YTD
$480,140 $441,732 in 2016 • $405,470 in 2015
A LITTLE TIDBIT With conventional loan limits increasing in 2018, on-the-fence buyers may start getting more serious about purchasing - or it may give current buyers more purchasing power. However, as rates go up, your buying power goes down. For every 1% jump in interest rates, a buyer COULD lose 10% buying power. So waiting might not be the best answer. Consult your lender and Madison Realtor ® for more information.
Single Family - Attached // condo THIS REPORT IS BASED ON 11 COUNTIES 2017 Year in review
18,828
16,502
TOTAL New Listings YTD in 2017
TOTAL Sold Listings YTD in 2017
Increase from 2016
Increase from 2016
----5.96%
----4.62%
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
41 2017
32 2016
27
TOTAL SALES VOLUME YEAR TO DATE
2017
$5,262,553,808
2016
$4,571,320,974
2015
$4,195,980,390
2015
Even with our lack of inventory, December 2017 had the highest days on market peaking at 60 days. On the contrary the month with the lowest days on market was in May, at 33 Days.
CLOSE PRICE TO LIST PRICE YEAR TO DATE
100.37% 2017
100.73% 2016
100.79% 2015
Single Family - Attached (condo) // Month OVER Month Recap SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED // NEW LISTINGS 3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500 DEC 16’
JAN 17’
FEB 17’
MAR 17’
APR 17’
MAY 17’
JUN 17’
JUL 17’
ACTIVE
AUG 17’
SEP 17’
NEW LISTINGS
OCT 17’
NOV 17’
UNDER CONTRACT
DEC 17’
SOLD
2017 AVERAGE SOLD PRICE YTD
$318,904 $289,801 in 2016 • $258,405 in 2015
A LITTLE TIDBIT If you are living in a condo complex over 25,000 sq ft, expect to have an assessment larger than normal if you need roof repair. The Denver Green Roof initiative passed, which means that all existing and new buildings over 25,000 square feet will need rooftop gardens and/or solar panels on top of their roofs. - Source: Denver Post
THE SNAPSHOT DENVER METRO REAL ESTATE MARKET
Active Listings vs Sold Listings
A LITTLE TIDBIT This is the real market. Supply vs. demand at its finest. More homes are being sold than they are entering the market. In a healthy market, the housing supply should be around 14,000 active units. At month end (December 2017), we had 3,854 single family, attached and detached active units on the market... the lowest in Colorado history.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2017 YEAR IN REVIEW
COLORADO POPULATION
4
Colorado added 77,059 RESIDENTS the past year (46,838 came from net migration and 30,211 from natural increases), bringing the total population to just over 5.6 MILLION.
5
7
Colorado’s total population rose 1.4 percent between July 1, 2016, and July 1, 2017, which was the 8TH-FASTEST GROWTH RATE IN THE COUNTRY. Colorado ranks 10TH-HIGHEST STATE for its rate of net migration.
9.1%
8
3
6
1
2
9%
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS
SOLD
4.4%
HOME SALES HOME SALES (CLOSED) ARE UP 4.4% from September to October 2017 (5,109).
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS INCREASED 9.1% from September to October 2017 (1,515).
YTD HOME SALES ARE DOWN 0.8% through October 2017 (50,132).
Year to date, RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS ARE UP 9% (20,344) through October 2017.
EMPLOYMENT Colorado’s unemployment rate, after setting a historic low of 2.3 percent in April 2017, is now close to the 3 PERCENT RATE measured on a seasonally adjusted basis. The AVERAGE WORK WEEK FOR ALL EMPLOYEES on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.3 hours for the year. Average HOURLY EARNINGS INCREASED FROM $26.96 TO $27.85.
1.5%
OTHER Denver ranks NO. 2 BEST PLACES TO LIVE on U.S. News & World Report’s 2017 list.
2
HOME PRICES
$
Median home price in Denver was DOWN 1.5% (TO $418,000) from 2Q 2017 to 3Q 2017. *Sources are located on the back cover.
MARKET TRENDS LUXURY // SIGNATURE // PREMIER “Our Market trends report also includes statistics and analyses in its supplemental ‘Luxury Market Report’ (properties sold for $1 million or greater), ‘Signature Market Report’ (properties sold between $750,000 and $999,999) and ‘Premier Market Report’ (properties sold between $500,000 and $749,999). In December, 118 homes sold and closed for $1 million or greater, down 19.18 percent month over month and up 24.21 percent year over year. The closed dollar volume in December for all luxury residential was $179,985,046, down 17.97 percent month over month and up 34.66 percent year over year. The highest priced single-family home sold in December was $6,500,000 representing six bedrooms, nine bathrooms and 7,353 above ground square feet in Denver. The highest priced condo sold was $3,750,000 representing three bedrooms, four bathrooms and 6,419 above ground square feet in Denver.” - Jill Schafer, DMAR Market Trends Committee Member
LUXURY MARKET Properties sold from $1 Million +
LIST TO CLOSE PRICE YTD
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:
2017
2016 2015 2017 2017
2014 2017
790
864
96.89%
1,090
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET YTD
1,297
104 DAYS
1,696
SOLD LISTINGS YTD
2013 2017
$1,523,914
SIGNATURE MARKET
Properties sold between $750,000 - $999,999
98.49%
2017
LIST TO CLOSE PRICE YTD
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:
2016 2015 2017 2017
2014 2017
1,022
1,150
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET YTD
1,537
74 DAYS
1,902
2,427
SOLD LISTINGS YTD
2013 2017
$847,298
PREMIER MARKET
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE: $847,298
Properties sold between $500,000 - $749,999
LIST TO CLOSE PRICE YTD
AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:
2017
2016 2015 2017 2017
2014 2017
$591,430
4,013
4,575
99.29%
6,220
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET YTD
7,797
61 DAYS
10,069
SOLD LISTINGS YTD
2013 2017
MADISON & COMPANY PROPERTIES | WWW.MADISONPROPS.COM | 303.771.3850 Š2018 Madison & Company Properties, LLC. Madison & Company Properties is a registered trademark licensed to Madison & Company Properties, LLC. Locally owned and operated. An equal opportunity company. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. If you have a brokerage relationship with another agency, this is not intended as a solicitation. Sources: DMAR Market Trends, MetroDenver Economic Development, Denver Post, World Population Review, US News