March 30, 2019 Gulfstream Park
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Xpressbet Florida Derby Expert Picks Alfredo Alfonzo
Millie Ball
Jason Blewitt
Zoe Cadman
Gulfstream Park
XBTV
Gulfstream Park
XBTV
@videohipico
@camillayakteen
@jasonblewitt30
@zoecadman
Maximum Security
Hidden Scroll
Bourbon War
Code of Honor
Bourbon War
Harvey Wallbanger
Hidden Scroll
Bourbon War
Hidden Scroll
Unions Destiny
Code of Honor
Hidden Scroll
Code of Honor
Code of Honor
Harvey Wallbanger
Maximum Security
Johnny D
Ron Nicoletti
Dustin Fabian
Jeremy Plonk
Xpressbet
Gulfstream Park
Xpressbet
Xpressbet
@XBJohnnyD
@ronic17
@Xpressbet
@HorsePlayerNow
Harvey Wallbanger
Hidden Scroll
Bourbon War
Bourbon War
Code of Honor
Bourbon War
Code of Honor
Hidden Scroll
Hidden Scroll
Code of Honor
Maximum Security
Code of Honor
Harvey Wallbanger
Harvey Wallbanger
Maximum Security
Jonathan Van Dine
Jeff Siegel
Eddie Olczyk
Xpressbet
XBTV
NBC Sports
@Xpressbet
@jsiegelracing
@Xpressbet
Bourbon War
Hidden Scroll
Bourbon War
Maximum Security
Code of Honor
Bodexpress
Hidden Scroll
Maximum Security
Hidden Scroll
Current
Bourbon War
Code of Honor
Team Consensus 4 Points for 1st, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd and 1 for 4th 1. BOURBON WAR (30)
2. HIDDEN SCROLL (28)
3. CODE OF HONOR (22)
4. MAXIMUM SECURITY (13)
Gulfstream Park Mile $300,000 - Grade 2
Post Time: 4:14 PM ET
Race 4 (Post Time: 1:00PM ET) 4YO+, 1 Mile (Dirt)
1 1/2 Miles Turf
Prince Lucky Poised for Knockout By Jeremy Plonk, Xpressbet.com @Horseplayernow Analysis: Not every boxing match winds up like the script of Rocky. After a real-life bludgeoning, the bludgeoned may not want a rematch no matter how many zeroes appear on the pay ledger. After PRINCE LUCKY mopped the ring by 6 lengths in the Hal’s Hope, Gulfstream Park Mile nominees Copper Town and Quip said “no mas.” Can anyone step forward in this one-turn mile to take the favorite’s best shot, or are we simply looking at a clear single in the early multi-race wagers in the day’s fourth race? Main Contenders: PRINCE LUCKY stands out off his return win in the Grade 3 Hal’s Hope, his first start since taking the Easy Goer on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Those are two key feathers as we know he can handle Gulfstream, and he can handle a day with a lot of pomp, circumstance and crowd. And he’s trained by Todd Pletcher, who is other-worldly in Gulfstream one-turn miles. Over the past four years, Pletcher trainees are 36% wins and 53% in the exacta for a $1.17 ROI for every $1 bet. That jumps to $1.69 in stakes. If there’s any hope in beating the favorite it’s that he went almost :13 the final furlong of the Hal’s Hope and didn’t gallop-out with zest. But he had reason to be a bit tired. Now, he’s tight. TALE OF SILENCE, fourth in the Hal’s Hope, would be the other leading stakes-savvy threat.
4YO+, Fillies & Mares
Stats & Trends Last Year: Reigning Kentucky Derby and Xpressbet Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming had his 2018 return spoiled when he chased 12-1 shot Conquest Big E throughout and was a no-match second. Conquest Big E rebounded off a troubled, fourth-place effort in the Hal’s Hope. Among those also in the upset winner’s wake was past Holy Bull, Wood Memorial and Pimlico Special winner Irish War Cry.
Gulfstream Park Mile Snapshot: (Since 1991) Stakes Record: 1:33.80 (Palace Malice, 2014) Largest Win Margin: 5 1/4 Lengths (Discreet Dancer, 2013) Winning Favorites: 12 (42.9%) Wire-to-Wire Winners: 4 (14.3%) Average Win Odds: 4.63/1 Average Exacta ($2): $70.22 Average Trifecta ($1): $240.33
He’s run several triple-digit late BRIS pace figures, and if you’re going to beat the chalk here, it’s with a late whoosh on the off chance he’s weary late. Value Plays: Finding value in a 6-horse field with a heavy favorite most often means a multi-race wagering strategy. Race 3 has a 9-horse field and could help you leverage the math with a daily double into this race. Within the body of the Gulfstream
? Know This Faltering Favorites : The last 4 favorites in this race have finished 6th, 3rd, 4th and 2nd at odds of 9-5, 8-5, 6-5 and 6-5. Palace Malice (2014) and Mucho Macho Man (2012) are the only successful chalks the past decade.
Park Mile, GUY CABALLERO finds a group without much early speed and could be dangerous on or near the lead with a great outside draw. $100 Wagering Strategy: • $40 Daily Double Part-Wheel: OWNITIFYOUWANTIT and HAUNT from Race 3 with PRINCE LUCKY ($80) • $20 Exacta: PRINCE LUCKY over GUY CABALLERO ($20)
Jeremy’s Picks 1. PRINCE LUCKY
2. GUY CABALLERO
3. TALE OF SILENCE 4. BE GONE DADDY
Stretch-out, Not Cutback: 75% of the 72 one-turn mile stakes on the Gulfstream Park dirt since 2013 have been won by horses who last raced at a mile or shorter. Winning is Contagious: 47% of dirt mile stakes winners at Gulfstream Park since 2013 have exited prep victories. And consider 64% of those winners finished first or second last time out.
Cutler Bay Stakes $125,000
Race 5 (Post Time: 1:30PM ET) 3YO, 1 Mile (Turf)
Castellano Chooses Fresh Face By Jon VanDine, Xpressbet.com @Xpressbet Analysis: Even with the Cutler Bay drawing a field of seven horses this year, there doesn’t appear to be a standout in this race. The field is devoid of early speed, and the adage “pace makes the race” will certainly apply here. This race will be determined by the inside trio of horses, and that’s where my handicapping will focus. Main Contenders: SEISMIC WAVE is coming off of a maiden score going a mile and one-eighth while sitting just off the pace in his only try on the Gulfstream turf. In the first two starts of his career he tried to launch from 8th and came up short. With the turn-back in distance, drawing the rail, and lack of speed players involved, this one could find the front or be very close. FOREVER MO has 2 wins and a second-place finish in four races on the Gulfstream turf. This is another one who’ll be sitting close to the front under Manny Franco. FOREVER MO is in good form entering this race with two wins in his last three races, and enjoys the Gulfstream turf course. MARQUEE PRINCE enters this race off of two straight victories at Fair Grounds. Javier Castellano
Stats & Trends Last Year: Palm Beach Stakes third-place finisher Therapist rallied to nab 6-5 favorite Speed Franco by a neck as the second wagering choice. The New Yorkbred by Freud provided trainer Christophe Clement with back-to-back wins in the Cutler Bay, following Dover Cliffs’ victory in 2017.
Cutler Bay Snapshot: (Since 2016) Stakes Record: Largest Win Margin: Winning Favorites: Wire-to-Wire Winners: Average Win Odds: Average Exacta ($2): Average Trifecta ($1):
1:33.42 (Therapist, 2018) 1 1/2 Lengths (Dover Cliffs, 2017) 2 (66.7%) 1 (33.3%) 1.80/1 $80.00 $147.80
hops off of SEISMIC WAVE to ride MARQUEE PRINCE. He also sports a wire-to-wire victory going a mile at Churchill, and that pace ability might come in handy vs. these. Value Plays: CANDY CRUSHEM was beaten by FOREVER MO two starts ago, but in that race he was bumped at the top of the stretch, and steadied late. He returned
? Know This Note the Speed: The Cutler Bay pacemaker has finished in the exacta in each of the three editions of this race, including a win and two runner-up efforts.
next out to break his maiden at 7-1 going a mile over the turf. He could round out the trifecta at a price. $100 Wagering Strategy: • $30 Exacta Part-Wheel: MARQUEE PRINCE over SEISMIC WAVE and FOREVER MO ($60) • $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: SEISMIC WAVE and FOREVER MO over MARQUEE PRINCE ($20) • $5 Trifecta Part-Wheel: MARQUEE PRINCE over FOREVER MO, CANDY CRUSHEM over FOREVER MO, CANDY CRUSHEM, SEISMIC WAVE ($20)
Jon’s Picks 1. MARQUEE PRINCE 2. SEISMIC WAVE
3. FOREVER MO
4. CANDY CRUSHEM
Palm Beach Dreamin’: Horses exiting defeats in Gulfstream Park’s Palm Beach Stakes have accounted for victories in two of the three editions of the Cutler Bay to date. Winners Gonna Win: 40% of the more than 110 turf mile stakes races run at Gulfstream Park since 2013 have been won by horses coming off of victories.
Sanibel Island Stakes $125,000
Post Time: 4:14 PM ET
Race 6 (Post Time: 2:00PM ET) 3YO Fillies, 1 Mile (Turf)
1 1/2 Miles Turf
More Than ‘A Bit’ Special Dustin Fabian, Xpressbet.com @Xpressbet Analysis: Gulfstream’s Sanibel Island Stakes drew a solid field of eight three-year-old fillies and from a betting perspective, the question is simple – bank on A BIT SPECIAL or play against her? The way I see it, there’s no middle ground. If you like A BIT SPECIAL, she’s probably a single and a key horse. If you don’t like her, you’ve got a number of viable alternatives that are going to pay much better. In my eyes, however,
4YO+, Fillies & Mares
Stats & Trends Last Year: 9-5 favorite Best Performance rallied mildly for fourth in her first start since a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf nearly four months prior. Leading jockey Luis Saez slowed the pace on 8-1 shot Figarella’s Queen and wired the field after taking maidens coast-to-coast in her prior start.
this race starts and ends with A BIT SPECIAL. Main Contenders: A BIT SPECIAL is just that – A BIT SPECIAL. She’s 4-for-5 in her career, has won three stakes races and routed the field in the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant Stakes last time out. Her only defeat came last September when she got caught too far behind a pedestrian pace in an allowance race and came flying late only to lose by a neck. Norm Casse’s BELLE LAURA was third in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes here on March 2 and was regarded enough to compete in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last November. She finished 7th that day, but was beaten less than 3 lengths for second. Klaravich Stables, Chad Brown and Javier Castellano have teamed to win a
Sanibel Island Snapshot: (Since 2016) Stakes Record: Largest Win Margin: Winning Favorites: Wire-to-Wire Winners: Average Win Odds: Average Exacta ($2): Average Trifecta ($1):
1:34.68 (Harmonize, 2016) 3 1/4 Lengths (Celestine, 2015) 0 (0.0%) 2 (50.0%) 6.90/1 $91.75 $182.08
ton of stakes races and they send out POSITIVE SKEW, who broke her maiden here on January 6. Based on human connections alone, she’s worth consideration. Value Plays: TRENCHTOWN CAT was the heavy chalk when she broke her maiden going five furlongs here on February 17. She’ll need to prove she can stretch out and step up in company, but her speed figures are on par with most of her rivals. LA AUSTRALIANA should get a quicker pace here than she chased in her debut and could back into the Tri or Super. $100 Wagering Strategy: • $40 Exacta: A BIT SPECIAL over POSITIVE SKEW ($40) • $5 Trifecta Key: A BIT SPECIAL over LA AUSTRALIANA, BELLE LAURA, TRENCHTOWN CAT and POSITIVE SKEW ($60)
Dustin’s Picks 1. A BIT SPECIAL
2. POSITIVE SKEW
3. BELLE LAURA
4. LA AUSTRALIANA
? Know This Speed is Dangerous: Two straight Sanibel Island winners have registered wire-to-wire upsets at 8-1 prices, Figarella’s Queen last year and Conquest Hardcandy in 2017. In fact, 8-1 shot Celestine also won the inaugural edition of this race in 2015. Chalk Dust: Favorites are 0-for-4 in the Sanibel Island, finishing second at 3-5; third at 9-5; second at 2-1, and fourth at 9-5. Does Class Matter? Twice in the four-year history of the Sanibel Island, the winner was rising in class out of the maiden ranks, Celestine in 2015 and Figarella’s Queen in 2018.
Ticket Time! Recommended Picks for the Day’s Biggest Bets $750,000 Guaranteed Late Pick 4 One of horse racing’s most popular bets has a $750,000 guarantee on Xpressbet Florida Derby Day!
Race 11: Race 12: Race 13: Race 14:
5 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 11 1, 3, 8, 9 1, 4, 9
Total Ticket Cost ($.50 Base): $36.00
Mandatory Payout Rainbow 6 Xpressbet Florida Derby Day is Mandatory Payout Day for the Rainbow 6. That means the entire carryover must go! Heading into Thursday’s races, the carryover was over $2.4 million. If that holds until Saturday, there are going to be some very happy handicappers!
Race 9: Race 10: Race 11: Race 12: Race 13: Race 14:
1, 8, 9, 10, 14 4, 8, 9 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 11 1, 3, 8, 9 1, 4
Total Ticket Cost ($.20 Base): $144.00
Gulfstream Park Oaks $250,000 - Grade 2
Race 8 (Post Time: 3:00PM ET) 3YO Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
Oaks Road Runs Through ‘Dunbar’ By Johnny D., Xpressbet.com @XBJohnnyD Analysis: A field of 7 sophomore gals line up for this mile and one-sixteenth, Grade 2, $250,000 test. Leading the charge is DUNBAR ROAD, an impressive, nearly 9-length winner in her only start at one mile. She’s trained by Chad Brown, a 30% winning trainer at the current meeting. She will be ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., who’s currently in a nipand-tuck dogfight with Luis Saez for honors as the meet’s leading rider. Well-fancied is COOKIE DOUGH, second last out in this track’s Grade 2 Davona Dale going one-
Stats & Trends Last Year: Coach Rocks rallied to give trainer Dale Romans his third GP Oaks title in the last four years, nabbing race favorite Take Charge Paula in the final yards. The formful race produced just a $36 trifecta for $1, despite an 11-horse field, as the Top-3 all were 3-1 or less. Coach Rocks was coming off a maiden win at the meet, and would go on to be the runner-up in the Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico.
mile. She has a pair of dominating Gulfstream Park victories in restricted stakes on her resume, including a head defeat last out in the Grade 2 Davona Dale. Main Contenders: What makes things interesting in here is that DUNBAR ROAD and COOKIE DOUGH are drawn in posts 6 and 7, respectively, and both have speed. What happens early in this race will determine what happens late. Will Ortiz permit jockey Jeffrey Sanchez and mount COOKIE DOUGH to outrun him to the first turn? If not, and Ortiz holds inside position with his filly, how fast might the pair go and how much energy will they expend? If things become silly early, unbeaten POINT OF HONOR seems most likely to benefit. She has a Gulfstream maiden win and a Tampa stakes
Gulfstream Park Oaks Snapshot: (Since 1991) Stakes Record: 1:42.40 (Miss Oceana, 1984) Largest Win Margin: 21 3/4 Lengths (Dreaming of Julia, 2013) Winning Favorites: 14 (50.0%) Wire-to-Wire Winners: 6 (21.4%) Average Win Odds: 3.48/1 Average Exacta ($2): $35.63 Average Trifecta ($1): $69.62
tally in her only two starts. CHAMPAGNE ANYONE adds blinkers and could show more early interest. She closed well going 7 furlongs in the Forward Gal to miss by less than a length. Last out in the Davona Dale, she ran evenly to finish a well-beaten third. Value Plays: There really isn’t much apparent value to be found unless, of course, as stated early, DUNBAR ROAD and COOKIE DOUGH wage a pace war on the front end. If that pair go at a breakneck pace and POINT OF HONOR isn’t up to the task, the race sets up for newly blinkered CHAMPAGNE ANYONE, who should be at an acceptable price. $100 Wagering Strategy: • $20 Exacta Box: DUNBAR ROAD and POINT OF HONOR ($40) • $20 Exacta: DUNBAR ROAD and CHAMPAGNE ANYONE ($20) • $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: DUNBAR ROAD with POINT OF HONOR, CHAMPAGNE ANYONE, COOKIE DOUGH ($30) • $10 Exacta: POINT OF HONOR with DUNBAR ROAD ($10)
Johnny D’s Picks 1. DUNBAR ROAD
2. POINT OF HONOR
3. CHAMPAGNE ANYONE 4. COOKIE DOUGH
? Know This Dale & Todd Show: Trainers Dale Romans (3) and Todd Pletcher (4) have accounted for 7 of the last 9 editions of the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Winning Matters: 54% of the winners in 1-1/16 miles dirt stakes races since 2013 at Gulfstream Park have been coming off of prep victories. Two-thirds of the winners ran first or second last-time out. Don’t Toss Stretch-Out Horses: Just over half of the 1-1/16 miles dirt graded stakes at Gulfstream Park since 2013 have been won by horses extending distance out off of a 1-turn prep, so don’t be afraid of a stretch-out.
Sand Springs Stakes $100,000
Post Time: 4:14 PM ET
Race 10 (Post Time: 4:17PM ET) 4YO+ Fillies & Mares, 1 Mile (Turf)
1 1/2 Miles Turf
Ledge Stays Perfect at Gulfstream By Johnny D., Xpressbet.com @XBJohnnyD Analysis: Wagering decisions in this race hinge on how one views the chances of PROCTOR’S LEDGE off a 4-month layoff while breaking from the most outside post. She’s clearly the most accomplished in the field. No argument. However, she’s been away since Oct. 13 and may lose ground in this race. Still, she’s a multiple Grade 2 stakes winner that usually shows up. She’s improved steadily throughout her career,
4YO+, Fillies & Mares
Stats & Trends Last Year: Contested the first Saturday in March, Team of Teams led every step of the way under John Velazquez to pull an 11-1 upset for trainer Jimmy Jerkens. It was an empty finale for 2-5 favorite Celestine, the defending Sand Springs champion who had won this race at 3-10 odds a year prior and also been third here in 2016.
is 2-for-2 on Gulfstream turf and 3 of 4 in-the-money at the distance. Early speed belongs to VALEDICTORIAN and TOO CHARMING, so the pace should be honest. If ready, PROCTOR’S LEDGE will be difficult to down. Main Contenders: After the aforementioned PROCTOR’S LEDGE, there’s a bit of a scramble. VALEDICTORIAN seems logical. She figures to be hounded by TOO CHARMING early, though. FIRE KEY has some respectable races, but she’s now age 6; so it’s difficult to expect improvement. Also, she’s been closing recently and, therefore, needs pace help. QUEBEC is an interesting invader returning from California, and who
Sand Springs Snapshot: (Since 2016) Stakes Record: Largest Win Margin: Winning Favorites: Wire-to-Wire Winners: Average Win Odds: Average Exacta ($2): Average Trifecta ($1):
1:33.01 (Faufiler, 2016) 3 Lengths (Team of Teams, 2018) 1 (33.3%) 2 (66.7%) 8.23/1 $100.47 $294.13
gains the services of jockey Irad Oritiz, Jr. She’s a steady performer with 3 wins and 3 seconds in 7 past appearances on the Gulfstream turf. She’s 4-for-6 first or second at the distance. West coast stalwart Richard Baltas conditions the filly in California, and it appears he prepped her there for this. She races Saturday under Bobby Dibona’s name. Value Plays: ANDINA DEL SUR is a bit interesting because she seems to be a forwardmoving, 4-year-old type. Trouble is, she’s just 1-for-her-last-11. Co-leading rider Luis
? Know This Winners Gonna Win: 40% of the more than 110 turf mile stakes races run at Gulfstream Park since 2013 have been won by horses coming off of victories. Upset Special: The Sand Springs has produced 12-1 and 11-1 upsets in the past three editions.
Saez will ride—he’s been second with her twice before. She’s got an even running style (mid-pack early with a minor kick late). Her connections have regarded her highly all along—matching her against top 3-year-old fillies last season—but she’s never really put it all together. Perhaps, if PROCTOR’S LEDGE stumbles, ANDINA DEL SUR will surge. $100 Wagering Strategy: • $10 Exacta Box: PROCTOR’S LEDGE and ANDINA DEL SUR ($20) • $4 Trifecta Key: PROCTOR’S LEDGE with FIRE KEY, QUEBEC, VALEDICTORIAN, TOO CHARMING, ANDINA DEL SUR ($80)
Johnny D’s Picks 1. PROCTOR’S LEDGE 2. ANDINA DEL SUR
3. QUEBEC
4. VALEDICTORIAN
Bet Fresh Horses: The 2016 and 2017 winners of the Sand Springs both were making their first starts of the calendar year.
Pan American Stakes $250,000 - Grade 2
Post Time: 4:14 PM ET
Race 13 (Post Time: 6:00PM ET) 4YO+, 1 1/2 Miles (Turf)
1 1/2 Miles Turf
Same Script for Bigger Picture? By Jeremy Plonk , Xpressbet.com @Horseplayernow Analysis: Not to be the guy who gives away the end of the movie during the previews, but this is the flick where BIGGER PICTURE comes off a score in the Connally Turf at Sam Houston and turns in a dud, unable to make a dent against an Argentine pace player from the Todd Pletcher barn. Have you seen it? The 2018 Pan American Stakes may very well present its sequel in Saturday’s 13th of 14 races. Grab your popcorn; let’s get to work.
4YO+, Fillies & Mares
Stats & Trends Last Year: Defending champion and 9-5 favorite Sadler’s Joy mustered a modest fourth behind a dawdling pace as Hi Happy was able to push by front-running One Go All Go in a veritable merry-go-round. The top pair both exited the 1-1/8 miles Gulfstream Park Turf. This marked the third stakes win on the card for jockey Luis Saez, who won the Sanibel Island and Gulfstream Park Oaks prior.
Main Contenders: BIGGER PICTURE figures to be a tenuous favorite worth opposing. The 2-time Connally Turf champ has those bookend trophies around 8 straight losses, including his 2018 Pan American seventh. He’s without a lot of pace in a race that figures to offer very little early pace help to his style. Maker did win the one-mile Canadian Turf here last year with Hogy in Houston-to-Miami fashion. The barn also tries with SOGLIO, whose last 5 stakes losses have been by less than 2 combined lengths. He’s due some luck and should be fairly close to a slow pace. Alternatives to Maker’s pair include FOCUS GROUP, third in the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine last October. Sure, it’s a long layoff, but Betmix stats show Chad Brown at 6: 3-1-0 with horses off 150+ days and returning in 1-1/2 miles turf races since 2015. One of those included Wake Forest, second by a head in the 2016 Pan American after an
Pan American Snapshot: (Since 1991) Stakes Record: Largest Win Margin: Winning Favorites: Wire-to-Wire Winners: Average Win Odds: Average Exacta ($2): Average Trifecta ($1):
2:22.63 (Twilight Eclipse, 2013) 4 Lengths (Twilight Eclipse, 2013) 5 (17.9%) 4 (14.3%) 5.03/1 $63.68 $221.34
August hiatus from the Arlington Million. The layoff won’t beat him; though the slow pace might. Another top contender who could be pace-compromised is MELMICH. He was second in the Mac Diarmida with a wide trip behind a dawdling pace, and galloped out better than the winner. Value Plays: Todd Pletcher won this race last year with Hi Happy (Arg) and returns with another export of South America, VILLAGE KING (ARG). While this Group 1 winner in Argentina sports just a 1-for-6 record since coming to America, he’s got a strong pace advantage here as potential lone speed under Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. Surely he knows what to do with an edge. VILLAGE KING (ARG) has been 10-1 and 12-1 in a pair of stakes at the meet, so the connections alone won’t drag down his price. $100 Wagering Strategy: • $30 Win: VILLAGE KING (ARG) ($30) • $25 Exacta Part-Wheel: VILLAGE KING (ARG) and FOCUS GROUP over SOGLIO ($50) • $10 Exacta Box: VILLAGE KING (ARG) and FOCUS GROUP ($20)
Jeremy’s Picks 1. VILLAGE KING (ARG) 2. SOGLIO
3. FOCUS GROUP
4. BIGGER PICTURE
? Know This Javy’s World: Jockey Javier Castellano leads all Gulfstream jockeys in 1-1/2 miles turf stakes wins since 2013 with 5. He’s hit at 29% in these races with a $1.43 ROI for each $1 bet. Marathon Edge: Of the 24 turf marathon stakes at Gulfstream since 2013, 21 of the winners exited preps at 1-1/8 miles or farther. It Takes All Kinds: Only 6 of the 24 marathon turf stakes winners at Gulfstream since 2013 exited a victory, and notably 11 of them finished out of the money in their most recent start.
Xpressbet Florida Derby Stats and Trends All-Time Xpressbet Florida Derby Record – Today’s Trainers
Post 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Trainer
Horse
Bill Mott Todd Pletcher Ken McPeek Mark Hennig Dale Romans Jaime Mejia Jason Servis Gustavo Delgado Claude McGaughey III Juan Avila Ralph Nicks
Hidden Scroll Current Harvey Wallbanger Bourbon War Everfast Hard Belle Maximum Security Bodexpress Code of Honor Union’s Destiny Garter and Tie
Starts
Win
Place
Show
6 21 6 6 13 2 0 2 4 0 0
0 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Starts
Win
Place
Show
10 0 0 2 0 1 4 2 13 1 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
Win ROI
AVG Odds
$0.00 $1.58 $0.90 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1.95 -
11.92/1 5.87/1 13.13/1 44.05/1 31.18/1 148.30/1 62.35/1 5.50/1 -
Win ROI
AVG Odds
$0.86 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2.03 $0.00 -
18.11/1 32.05/1 116.30/1 4.10/1 92.90/1 8.89/1 153.70/1 -
All-Time Xpressbet Florida Derby Record – Today’s Jockeys
Post 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Jockey
Horse
Javier Castellano Manny Franco Brian Hernandez Jr. Irad Ortiz Jr. Chris Landeros Jose Batista Luis Saez Nik Juarez John Velazquez Leonel Reyes Jeffrey Sanchez
Hidden Scroll Current Harvey Wallbanger Bourbon War Everfast Hard Belle Maximum Security Bodexpress Code of Honor Union’s Destiny Garter and Tie
Winning Xpressbet Florida Derby Post Positions Since 1991
10 11 12 13 14
Post
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Starters
28
28
28
28
28
28
27
25
20
15
8
5
3
1
Winners
0
3
4
7
2
4
4
2
0
1
0
1
0
0
Xpressbet Florida Derby $1,000,000 - Grade 1
Post Time: 4:14 PM ET
Race 14 (Post Time: 6:30PM ET) 3YO, 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)
1 1/2 Miles Turf
Bourbon War Stands Out By Eddie Olczyk, NBC Sports @Xpressbet Analysis: The importance of the Xpressbet Florida Derby has been long-standing, but really in the spotlight in recent years. Kentucky Derby winners Orb, Nyquist and Always Dreaming all have come out of this race just since 2013. It’s the capper to a great, 14-race card on Saturday. Good luck to those playing in the live-money $50,000 Xpressbet Showdown online tournament.
4YO+, Fillies & Mares
Stats & Trends Last Year: Trainer Todd Pletcher won his fourth Xpressbet Florida Derby in five years when 8-5 favorite Audible rallied to post an easy, 3-length score. It was Pletcher’s fifth win in the event overall and fifth for jockey John Velazquez (third in tandem). Audible had been victorious in the Holy Bull Stakes earlier in the meet and sat out the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth to point for GP’s headline 3-year-old race. He would go on to run third in the Kentucky Derby.
Main Contenders: The pace got to favorite HIDDEN SCROLL in the Fountain of Youth when he finished fourth at 6-5. I respect him, but not sure he offers any more value this time … or if the pace will be any more forgiving. That’s because unbeaten sprinter MAXIMUM SECURITY should offer a big challenge to those up front. The Xpressbet Florida Derby should come down to the best finisher. In the Fountain of Youth, that was BOURBON WAR. He ran huge in the local prep when second to CODE OF HONOR and should get the perfect set-up. The longer the better for BOURBON WAR. And keep in mind that closers have taken the Mucho Macho Man, Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth this winter on the Florida Derby path.
Xpressbet Florida Derby Snapshot: (Since 1991) Stakes Record: 1:46.80 (Gen. Duke, 1957) Largest Win Margin: 9 3/4 Lengths (Empire Maker, 2003) Winning Favorites: 8 (28.6%) Wire-to-Wire Winners: 5 (17.9%) Average Win Odds: 6.14/1 Average Exacta ($2): $99.61 Average Trifecta ($1): $324.42
Value Plays: BODEXPRESS will be a big price (30-1 morning line, but likely much higher as a maiden). I know he’s never been around two turns, but he’s bred to like this. Sire Bodemeister dominated the Arkansas Derby at this same 1-1/8 miles and ran huge seconds in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. I’m looking for BODEXPRESS to be just off the speed in that second flight. $100 Wagering Strategy: • $43 Win: BOURBON WAR ($43) • $5 Exacta Part-Wheel: BOURBON WAR over BODEXPRESS, HIDDEN SCROLL, CODE OF HONOR ($15) • $3 Trifecta Key: BOURBON WAR over BODEXPRESS, HIDDEN SCROLL, CODE OF HONOR ($18) • $1 Trifecta Box: BOURBON WAR, BODEXPRESS, HIDDEN SCROLL, CODE OF HONOR ($24)
Eddie’s Picks 1. BOURBON WAR 2. BODEXPRESS
3. HIDDEN SCROLL
4. CODE OF HONOR
? Know This Run to the Roses: Since moving on the calendar closer to the Kentucky Derby as a final prep, the Xpressbet Florida Derby has produced 5 winners in Louisville since 2006 – Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist and Always Dreaming. No ‘Youth’ Needed: Five straight Florida Derby winners were horses who did not compete in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes. In fact, Orb (2013) is the only Fountain of Youth alumnus in the last 8 years to win the Florida Derby. Longshots Need Not Apply: 6 straight Xpressbet Florida Derby victors have come into the race off of a prep victory. The last 8 have first or secondplace final prep runs.