The Unwanted Children of Al-Hol

Iran Arouses Fear in the Arab Gulf

Saudi-American Relationship: Past, Present and Future

A Weekly Political News Magazine

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1747 - May - 10/05/2019

Brexit: A Very British Carnival

Issue 1748 - May - 17/05/2019

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The Unwanted Children of Al-Hol www.majalla.com

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Editorial As we come to the end of the 2010s, we are no closer to solving the current refugee crisis in the Middle East. One statistic estimates that the ongoing war in Syria has produced over half of the world’s refugees and given how young the population in the Middle East is, most of those being displaced are in fact children. With each day that passes by, more and more children become victims of this region’s conflicts. This week’s issue of Majalla explores the current refugee crisis and how it is making millions of children exposed to disease, kidnapping, psychological disorders, and radicalization.

The first cover story by Ali El Shamy focuses on the children who are residing in the Al-Hol camp in eastern Syria after the defeat of IS. Most of these children lived under IS rule and were likely radicalized with the group’s barbaric ideology. Moreover, there is the possibility that they have been militarily trained by the group and thus might pose a security risk. It is this risk that has made Western countries hesitant to repatriate children back to their countries, but human rights activists argue that Western states have a duty to help the children given the fact that they have the tools to do so. Nevertheless, most governments have taken measured actions toward the crisis. The writer further explores past attempts of de-radicalizing children used in armed groups such as the Lord’s Resistance Army.

Yasmine El Geressi has written the second cover story in which she focuses on the psychological impact that the wars and displacement have had on these children. In the article, she mentions the fact that the children do not have access to psychological help, schooling or medical attention which thus causes them to suffer both mentally and physically during their current state. She further points out that the crisis will have a long term impact in countries that will undergo the process of reconstruction, as they will have an absence of the human capital needed. She also interviewed Matthew Saltmarsh, a spokesperson from the UNHCR, who spoke of the challenges of providing psychological and educational help for these children.

Dennis Ross writes an opinion piece in which he argues on how valuable the US-Saudi relationship is and how it has only grown stronger since the mid-twentieth century. He also writes on the shared interests both states have in the region and how both are intensely committed to stopping Iran from destabilizing the Middle East.

Joseph Braude writes on the recent escalations in the Arab Gulf, as four tankers (including two Saudi vessels) were damaged after a series of explosions. US intelligence indicates that Iran was the most likely perpetrator of the attack. The incident came shortly after the US sent naval ships to the region as to curtail any possible act of aggression from the Iranian regime or any of its proxies.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

38 Ramadan Around the World

Issue 1748- May - 17/05/2019

20 Iran Arouses Fear in the Arab Gulf

14 A Generation Lost to War

32 30 Huawei Heads South

34 Mind the Gap

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Mohamed Abdel Mottaleb: How His Ramadan Gana Song Became the Holy Month’s Unofficial Theme Tune 3

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54 Protect Your Brain From Stress

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An Indonesian woman prepares meals for Muslims breaking their fast during the holy month of Ramadan at Jogokariyan Mosque in Yogyakarta on May ,11 2019. (Getty) 5

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A rice farmer works at a paddy field during the spring season in Cukurca district of Hakkari, Turkey on May 2019 ,8. Organic products are sold under the brand "Zap" for increasing the agricultural potential of the area and contributing to the publicity of the city in Cukurca district, where sesame, produced on spring months, is turned into tahini at 400 year old historic mill. (Getty)

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it supports used explosives to damage four ships.

47 Suspected Militants, 5 Troops Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Attack Saudi Gulf in response to what it said were Killed in Egypt's Sinai Iranian threats.

Oil Facilities Yemen’s Houthi rebels carried out multiple drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities on Tuesday in an act of sabotage, ratcheting up tensions in the region. A Houthi spokesman, Mohammed Abdul Salam, claimed responsibility for the drone strikes on Twitter, saying that they were a response to Saudi “aggression” and “genocide” in Yemen. The attacks took place against a backdrop of U.S.-Iranian tension following Washington’s decision this month to try to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero and to beef up its military presence in the

Saudi Oil Tankers Targeted by “Acts of Sabotage” Four commercial ships were targets of a "sabotage attack" off the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Sunday.

The incident reportedly took place near Fujairah port, just outside the Strait of Hormuz, but caused no casualties.Saudi Arabia confirmed that two Saudi oil tankers sustained “significant damage”. Another vessel was Norwegian-registered, whilst the fourth was reportedly UAE-flagged.

US investigators believe Iran or groups

Egypt's army on Thursday said 47 militants and five of its troops were killed as part of its military offensive in the restive Sinai Peninsula, where it is fighting Daesh. The suspected militants had "guns of different makes, ammunition, explosive devices in northern and central Sinai" in their possession, according to a slickly produced video statement posted on the armed forces' social media accounts. As part of the wide-ranging operation to secure Egypt's borders, 158 "criminal elements" were arrested.

The armed forces also neutralised 385 explosive devices that insurgents planted targeting security forces. The army did not specify when the deaths and arrests took place, saying only that they happened as part of "recent efforts" against extremists.

Sudanese Forces Clear Protesters with Gunfire; Talks Suspended At least one people were wounded on Wednesday when Sudanese forces used live ammunition to clear demonstrators from central Khartoum, a protest group

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said, ad talking on forming a body to lead Sudan to democracy have bee suspended for 72 hours. The violence has cast a shadow on talks that had appeared on course to reach a deal on forming a joint military-civilian body to run the country for a threeyear transition period until presidential elections. Both sides traded accusations on who was responsible for the violence.

The Commerce Department said it was adding Huawei Technologies Co Ltd and 70 affiliates to its “Entity List” - a move that bans the company from acquiring components and technology from U.S. firms without government approval. Huawei hit back in a statement reported by the state-run Global Times, saying: “If the US restricts Huawei, it will not make the US safer, nor will it make the US stronger. It will only force the US to use inferior and expensive alternative equipment, lagging behind other countries ... and ultimately harming US companies and consumers.”

May to Agree Departure, Boris Johnson to Stand as Next Conservative Leader U.S. Blacklists China's Huawei as Trade Dispute Clouds Global Outlook The Trump administration hit Chinese telecoms giant Huawei with severe sanctions on Wednesday, adding another incendiary element to the U.S.China trade dispute just as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he would visit China soon for more talks.

British Prime Minister Theresa May will set out a timetable for her departure in early June after the latest attempt to get her Brexit deal approved

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by parliament, the chairman of a powerful Conservative Committee said on Thursday. This means a leadership contest is likely to take place during the summer. but many in her party want her to set out clearly when she will quit if the agreement is rejected for a fourth time, and others are demanding her immediate departure. Boris Johnson, the face of the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union, said on Thursday he will be standing as a candidate to replace May as Conservative leader. The winner of the leadership contest will automatically become prime minister and will take control of the Brexit process.

Thousands March in Cardiff Calling for Welsh Independence Thousands have demonstrated in Cardiff to call for an independent Wales in what organisers said was the first such march in Welsh history. Some protesters said they had been lifelong supporters of independence, while others said they were converted by Brexit and austerity. A recent poll for ITV Wales showed that %12 of people support self-government. As the march ended with a rendition of the Welsh national anthem, Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau, Adam Price, leader of nationalist party Plaid Cymru, said that Welsh problems could be more easily solved if decisions were taken within the nation. “For many years, our desire to see an independent Wales has seemed distant. But the tide is turning, the marches are growing, and the voices are louder,” he said.

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The Unwanted Children of Al-Hol A Responsibility that No One Wants to Bear 10

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Children trapped in Al-Hol face terrible conditions as many of them suffer from diarrhea, dehydration and malnutrition.

A child stands in queue in al-Hol camp which houses relatives of Islamic State (IS) group members, in alHasakeh governorate in northeastern Syria on March ,28 2019. (GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP/Getty Images)

Early this year, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) liberated the eastern Syrian city of Baghouz as it defeated IS in its last stronghold. Nevertheless, the aftermath of the liberation has created a humanitarian crisis as an estimated 70,000 people who lived under IS rule are now displaced and living in the Al-Hol camp which is largely run by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

While it is widely agreed that adult men and women who willingly joined the group should be punished for their actions, there is a crisis with regards to children who joined the group (usually with their parents), were kidnapped by the group, or were born into the group. The controversy came to international light during the Shamima Begum case, in which a young British woman (Begum) joined IS when she was 15 to become a bride in the group. After IS’s defeat, the now adult Begum requested to go back to the UK, moreover she had a newborn boy who would, in theory, be entitled to British citizenship and would have the right to reside in the UK. Experts, policymakers and the general public debated whether or not Begum should be repatriated by the UK, many citing that she would be threat to security and allowing her to get back would set a risky precedent. There were those who suggested separating her son from her, but doing so would require many legal hurdles. In midst of the debate, Sajid Javid, Britain’s Home Secretary, decided to strip Begum of British citizenship citing the fact that she would be eligible for Bangladeshi citizenship. Nevertheless, the action did not end the debate as thousands of children are still stuck in Al-Hol and the international community has not acted fast enough to find a solution to the growing crisis.

By Ali El Shamy W While images of child soldiers bearing weapons and carrying out armed operations for militias can be shocking to the public eye, it is not a new phenomenon. In fact, the use of child soldiers can be traced back to medieval times, for example, there was the failed Children’s Crusade back in 1212. As the name implies it was a crusade composed of children, and was in fact led by a child, bent on capturing Jerusalem. Fast forward to our modern age, various terrorist groups and armed militias have recruited and kidnapped children for their barbaric acts. Examples of such groups include the Lord’s Resistance Army, AlShabab and of course IS.

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A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS At 70,000 people, the camp is overcrowded and a reported 000 ,10 people are forced to sleep in large communal tents.

Children make up 66 percent of the camp’s inhabitants, women are 24 percent of the inhabitants and men make up the remaining 10 percent. Children trapped in Al-Hol face terrible conditions as many of them suffer from diarrhea, dehydration, and malnutrition. A BBC report from April 2019 ,12, indicates that 169 children have died so far in the camp, but it’s not just the conditions within the camp that are causing the children to suffer, it is also the route

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to the camp as estimated 140 people, mostly children, passed away on route to the camp. While speaking to The Independent, Misty Buswell, IRC’s Middle East advocacy director, stated that many children die on the way to the camp due to malnutrition and hypothermia. The SDF largely lacks the tools to help these children and NGOs such as the ICRC is doing what it can to help the starving and ill children.

A RESPONSIBILITY THAT NO ONE WANTS According to a report in Rudaw, most of the former IS inhabitants are either Syrian or Iraqi, as they make up 43 percent and 42 percent of the occupants, respectively.

Meanwhile, the remaining 15 percent are foreigners who hailed from all over the world as many of them came from Europe, some from Australia and a few from the Americas.

Both regional and foreign children face difficulties going home, but for different reasons. Clive Stafford Smith, a human rights lawyer who has worked to return children who lived under IS to their homeland, spoke with Majalla and indicated that both Iraq, which is still under reconstruction, and Syria, which still has fighting factions, both lack the tools to help these children. Moreover, the SDF does not have the means to help the children integrate into normal life; as such he believes that the West has a responsibility to save the children from further suffering.

This responsibility, in his opinion, stems not only from Iraq and Syria’s lack of resources but also because Western powers invaded Iraq and created the problem in the first place. Nevertheless, Western states have been largely static during this crisis and seem to ignore any responsibility for the children. Smith would further criticize Western powers for leaving the SDF with this crisis since it fought against

Both Iraq, which is still under reconstruction, and Syria, which still has fighting factions, both lack the tools to help former IS children.

IS and was the largest driving force behind IS’s defeat in eastern Syria.

INTERNATIONAL LAW REGARDING CHILD RECRUITS Panos Moumtzis, the UN’s Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria Crisis has said that the children should be treated as victims and has called on the international community to help the estimated 2,500 displaced children. While his plea was a moral one, it is backed by international law.

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A German woman, living in al-Hol camp which houses relatives of Islamic State (IS) group members, carries her child in the camp in alHasakeh governorate in northeastern Syria on March ,28 2019. (GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP/Getty Images)

Article 39 of the Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC) indicates that states should take the responsibility to promote the psychological and physical recovery and social reintegration of children who become victims of exploitation, inhuman treatment or armed conflict.

Moreover, Article 6 of the Optional Protocol on Children in Armed Conflicts says that state parties should provide children used in armed conflicts with “all appropriate assistance for their physical and psychological recovery and their social reintegration”. While such conventions are clear, most states have taken measured to no steps to aid these children fearing various security risks with the prospect of their repatriation.

TICKING TIME BOMB: WESTERN RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS Security fears surrounding foreign nationals, children included, has encouraged many Western governments to opt out of repatriating those who lived and fought with IS. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who as of the writing of this article is contesting in an upcoming federal election, has rejected calls from Save the Children Australia to repatriate children when he said is “not going to put any Australian life at risk to extract people from these conflict zones”. He did go on to say that the government could potentially help the 80 Australian children escape their situation, if their parents go seek help in Australian embassies. Meanwhile, the British government refuses to repatriate the estimated 30 British children (and adult citizens) due to security reasons and legal difficulties.

While speaking to the Independent, a government spokesperson has cited the fact that the UK does not have consular services in Syria and could not help children residing there for that reason. The spokesperson would go on to say, that if a British child reached a British consulate outside of Syria, then the government would be able to help them. While the Swedish government has had similar responses toward the issue, opposition parliamentary parties have been critical of its government’s slow reaction toward the estimated 80-60 Swedish children. Recently, a man in Sweden has fought to bring back his grandchildren, aged one to eight, from the Al-Hol camp. The children’s father, Michael Skråmo, left Sweden to join IS as a fighter and took his wife and kids with him. The children would eventually become orphans after both their parents were killed. The grandfather’s efforts were fruitful, as SDF authorities handed the orphans to a Swedish delegation in the region and are now set to go back. However, most Western governments are unwilling to risk repatriating children and Giles de Kerchove’s, the EU CounterTerrorism Coordinator, recent comments on children who lived under IS being a “ticking time bomb” can sum up the sentiments that European governments have over the issue.

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The child soldiers would be used extensively in the group’s propaganda material and promotional videos that showed the children commit brutal acts of violence.

HOSTILITY WITHIN FOREIGN PART OF THE CAMP The residents of the Al-Hol camp are divided as to keep foreign women and children separate from the Iraqi and Syrian women and children. The reason why the SDF did this is due to the fact that foreign women tended to cling on to IS’s barbaric ideology and thoughts. A BBC report indicates that foreign women in the camp are hostile towards SDF soldiers and have resorted to throwing stones and food at them. The report further interviewed a number of these women, many of whom show little signs of remorse over their actions and remain steadfast in their beliefs. It should be noted that the report also had women who were beseeching for a way back home. If a majority of the foreign women within the camp share the same fundamentalist pro-Is sentiments then perhaps Western governments have a point of being wary of repatriating them. Another fear that permeates through governments is the possibility that children who lived under IS for years and were educated with their ideology would have a difficult time reintegrating back into society. When asked about the children who have been indoctrinated and carried out savage acts, Clive Stafford Smith said that those who have been the most exploited by IS are the ones in need of the most help and they should not be neglected by Western governments.

RECRUITMENT AND TRAINING Terrorist groups and armed militias throughout history have used child recruits to carry out their acts of atrocity.

The reason for this is two-fold, first young children are vulnerable and can be molded into militants who wholeheartedly believe in the group’s ideology, they can also become desensitized towards violent acts once they are frequently exposed to it. Secondly, few people suspect children to commit acts of terror which enables them to carry out attacks without being detected; this is one of the reasons why so many suicide bombers are children.

A 2017 Foreign Affairs article titled, Inside ISIS’ Dysfunctional Schools, gave a detailed account of how the group recruited children into their educational and training centers. According to the article, the group used its

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recruitment department the Diwan of Dawah and Masajid (outreach and mosques) to attract children by setting up large screens which showed videos of IS militants battling and training, speeches by Abu Bakr El Baghdadi and even beheadings. The new recruits would be educated in aqidah, or Islamic theology but most other subjects were largely ignored. Furthermore, IS would create its own curriculum which was distributed via PDFs, rather than printed books.

In Syria, the group banned all school books that were issued by the Syrian regime but would use teachers who used to work for schools in Syria. These teachers would have to take a two-month “sharia course” before teaching the children who were placed in separate classes based on gender.

The children would further receive intense military training in which they would be trained on how to use AK47-s and behead people. A publication in the 2018 International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Armed Conflict Survey stated that children wouldn’t just be used as pawns of war, but those who were talented orators would be used to recruit both children and adults in the group.

The children would be given the title “ashbal”, which is Arabic for cubs, this serves the purpose of giving them a badge of honor within the ranks of IS’s social structure and to indicate that they would one day grow into the “lion warriors” of the “caliphate”.

These cubs would be used extensively in the group’s propaganda material and promotional videos that showed the children commit brutal acts of violence. The group liked making big spectacles that would shock the world but indulge their base. Shortly after capturing the ancient city of Palmyra in 2015 the group would use it as a venue for one of its filmed mass executions. Using a large IS flag as its backdrop, 25 Syrian regime soldiers were lined up to face their fate. Then, 25 IS children dressed in military camouflage came out and proceeded to pull out hand pistols

Security fears surrounding foreign nationals, children included, has encouraged many Western governments to opt out of repatriating those who lived and fought with IS.

which they used to murder the tied up regime soldiers.

The IISS has stipulated that militant groups, such as those in Uganda, have mostly used child soldiers as shields, in other words they were meant to be expendable. The same cannot be said for the children recruited by IS as they were clearly be used and trained for the long term, again their intense indoctrination has made governments hesitant towards taking them back into their countries.

REINTEGRATION AND UNDOING THE INDOCTRINATION If governments decide to repatriate the children, then an intensive plan of social reintegration is necessary for their wellbeing and security of these states. When speaking to Majalla, Clive Stafford Smith emphasized the necessary role of education in the rehabilitation process of these children. Leading policy experts seem to agree with this and many of them further states the need for psychological healing. An article published in the Financial Times said that Ben Wallace, the UK’s Security Minister, had commissioned an NHS Trust to develop a plan on how to deal with the health and social needs of child soldiers if they return to the UK. It should be noted, however, that the minister would go on to say that some young adolescents

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Screenshot of video showing IS children executing Syrian regime soldiers in Palmyra.

Clive Stafford Smith is a human rights lawyer who has worked to bring various former IS children back to their homelands. While speaking to Majalla he stated that the West has a responsibility to help these children and has described Western inaction as «reprehensible». (Getty)

might be “beyond help”. The Mia Bloom of the IISS agrees with that as she stated that “these children will likely have problems with socialization, lack empathy and suffer from attachment problems, and normalization will be all the more challenging”. Interestingly, Bloom has also conceded that de-radicalization programs that worked with kidnapped child soldiers in Africa might not work with those recruited to IS. One of the said programs involved the Catholic Church uniting children with their families, by contrast, a theological body or framework might not work with IS children since they have a distorted view of Islamic teachings that must be corrected. Moreover, many of these children’s families played a part in their recruitment, while most of the children who were in armed groups in Africa were in fact kidnapped and taken away from their families.

In spite of these difficulties, it is paramount that a solution be found before the situation becomes too complex and too big to solve. A case study published in the Zurich Center of Security Studies (CSS) and the Small Wars Journal, gave a brief comparison of two different methods in which child recruits were reintegrated into society.

For decades, the Colombian government has been at war with Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a terrorist organization that was known for using child soldiers. In 2016, the government and FARC signed a

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peace agreement and part of the agreement was that the latter would release all the children it has in its ranks.

The government then worked with UNICEF to initiate a reintegration program in which these children would be taken to government centers where they were provided with schooling, counseling and assimilation procedures for two years. Thus far, the effectiveness of such a program has yet to be confirmed. The study further noted that children who left the Lord’s Resistance Army did not have the same rigorous government-led initiative to rely on; as such states like Uganda had to call on the services of NGOs, such as World Vision to carry out reintegration projects.

It could be suggested that more stable governments such as those in the EU could start programs similar to that of the Colombian government, while NGOs would have a bigger role to play in the war torn Syria and the unstable Iraq.

As it stands, the situation is getting more difficult by the day as many governments are not acting hastily enough to provide help to those who need it. International law and human rights activists both emphasize that the children should be treated as victims rather than perpetrators but security officials beg to differ and would rather avoid any potential risk to their countries. Many more questions remain unanswered for these children, who, in many ways, have truly lost their innocence.

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A Generation Lost to War Conflicts in the Middle East are Leaving Behind Millions of Unschooled, Traumatised Children

by Yasmine El-Geressi Over 68.5 million people have been forcefully displaced worldwide as a result of persecution, conflict, violence or human rights violations. Close to 40 percent originate from the Arab region which continues to pose overwhelming challenges, with multiple and complex emergency situations on an unprecedented scale. The humanitarian and refugee crisis in Syria remains the largest in the world after more than 8 years of conflict. More than 5.6 million have fled the country as refugees, and another 6.2 million people are displaced within Syria. Elsewhere, violence and instability in countries such as Iraq, Libya and Yemen have triggered waves of

displacement. A tragic by-product of ongoing conflicts in the region that has a disproportionately young population with over 50 per cent of the population under 18, is a what many are calling a “lost generation” of unschooled, psychologically traumatised children.

Carsten Hansen, Middle East Regional Director at the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), told Majalla that there is a “very clear and present danger of losing an entire generation of children wherever there is conflict - be it Syria, Yemen, Palestine, Iraq or elsewhere.”

Children are born into situations beyond their control, yet they bear the brunt of war, destruction, displacement, and social and economic turmoil, and they will continue to pay the price for these conflicts.

The long-term impacts on the future of the region's youth who may

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not remember a time before brutal war, and thus the region itself, are huge, devastating and unpredictable.

THE TRAUMA OF WAR

Syrian refugees walk on their way back to the Syrian city of Jarabulus on September 2016 ,7 at Karkamis crossing gate, in the southern region of Kilis. (Getty)

Less talked about than physical and social issues, mental health problems are extremely widespread in refugee and populations.

According to a report by the German Federal Chamber of Psychotherapists, more than half the number of refugees from war zones suffer from some kind of mental illness. Many children caught up in war have been orphaned, seen their homes and communities destroyed, and are starved of food and water, education, medical treatment – deprived of their most basic human rights. According to Unicef, children are often exploited, abused, forced into armed groups or early marriage. The resulting depression, PTSD, suicidal tendencies, severe aggression and other mental illnesses that result from these horrors are invisible wounds that are not being detected early enough, let alone treated efficiently, in Syria and beyond, as this quote from a teacher in the Syrian town of Madaya, in Save The Children’s March 2017 report, Invisible Wounds, makes clear: “The children are psychologically crushed and tired. When we do activities like singing with them, they don’t respond at all…they draw images of children being butchered in the war, or tanks, or the siege and lack of food.”

Medics treating the children in these war-torn countries say the devastation and lasting mental health implications far exceed anything they have seen before and the symptoms eclipse those of PTSD. Dr. M.K. Hamza, a neuropsychologist with the SyrianAmerican Medical Society (SAMS), created the term ‘human devastation syndrome’ because he felt any existing terms are not adequate to accurately describe the levels of horror experienced by these children.

NRC’s Hansen told Majalla that the psychological scars of conflicts can be seen even after the conflict ends and in areas where escalations in fighting keep happening, children are subjected to repeated traumatic violence that can undermine years of work.

“Just in the Gaza Strip, for example, we found that 68 per cent of children living close to the Israeli perimeter fence have clear indications of psychosocial distress, many of whom witness explosions in their neighbourhood. They experience unusually high rates of nightmares and suffer concentrating at school,” said Hansen.

Nevertheless, Hansen expressed that there is reason for optimism.

“But we’re also encouraged by very positive results – children who get the chance to deal with their psychosocial distress professionally have a high rate of success.”

The child survivors face bleak futures if immediate, targeted and long-term assistance is not given to provide the mental health and psychosocial support that they need, and the longer they go untreated, the more amplified and permanent are the impacts on their mental and physical health. The risk of the long-term effects of traumatic experiences in even higher in younger children as they do not have the complete emotional mechanisms and a

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The long-term impacts on the future of the region's youth who may not remember a time before the brutal war, and thus the region itself, are huge, devastating and unpredictable. robust enough framework to interpret the events. It should also be remembered that very often the parents of child refugees are traumatised too, so they are not as able to give a secure base for the child to feel safe.

Even before the conflict, mental health care was in short supply in the region. In Syria, 21 million people were served by only 70 psychiatrists and were only two public psychiatric hospitals.

Today, the need for mental health services in the region is overwhelming and supply is at the lowest possible level because resources and attention given to mental health issues are grossly insufficient and therefore there are millions of young refugees without any opportunity to express their trauma, let alone receive any support and therapy to overcome the nightmares of war, loss and forced displacement. Matthew Saltmarsh, spokesperson for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), told Majalla that improving psychological conditions for young refugees and creating contextually sensitive mental health services is an “enormous area and a huge challenge.”

“85 percent of the world's refugees are in developing countries and, therefore, the support for mental health provision is very limited in countries like Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. The socalled psychosocial support and support for other areas like disability, unfortunately, are often limited because the resources are going into the basics of emergency response like food, water, shelter, health. Areas like mental health have been somewhat neglected in many situations because of a lack of financing and funding of agencies like UNHCR. There is in many, many cases a lack of dedicated mental health provision,” Saltmarsh explained.

Saltmarsh added that while the UN Refugee Agency has people dedicated to trying to support refugees in overcoming the burden and pain of displacement through supporting them into employment or to keep active and occupy their time, these initiatives are still “minimal and they're often an afterthought when it comes to supporting refugees.”

People with mental illness experience the compounded disadvantages of the acute shortage of mental health specialists, stigma and in many cases, having their illness ignored and dismissed. Hansen told Majalla that the NRC faces “cultural resistance” in communities where a strong stigma surrounds mental health issues. This can often bar children and their families from seeking treatment fearing that they will be labelled.

“In spite of this, our results are extremely encouraging and give

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us a lot of hope in what we do,” he added.

This further necessitates that the development and implementation of specialised culturally appropriate methodologies for the treatment of PTSD and other disorders should be a priority.

A GENERATION OF UNSCHOOLED CHILDREN Education tends to be one of the first victims of conflict. NRC’s Hansen explained that children drop out of school because it’s unsafe to travel, because their school has been bombed, or because they have to work to support their families. Young girls also drop out of school because of early marriage, which spikes up as one of the negative coping mechanisms wherever there is widespread instability and poverty.

According to a 2015 report by UNICEF, the United Nations children’s agency, conflict in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has driven 13 million children out of schools and some 43 percent of Syrian refugee children in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq are out of school. The size of the crisis means that governments, whose education system were already under strain before the refugees arrived, are struggling. In Lebanon, most refugee children are living outside the formal camp system and attending local schools, where teachers are trying to incorporate them into ordinary classes. This means that classes are overpacked, each pupil receives less attention, teachers are under pressure to teach bigger classes with mixed language skills, and have to support children who are traumatised.

UNHCR's Saltmarsh explained that for children who have been out of school for years, the possibility of finding gainful employment as an adult becomes increasingly challenging. “The number of refugee adolescents enrolled in secondary school is about 23 percent. In lower-income countries, that number declines to 9 percent, while the global equivalent for nonrefugees is 84 percent. When you miss out on a big chunk of secondary or further education it becomes extremely difficult just to have the skills that are needed to find jobs and to become more productive,” he said.

Matthew Saltmarsh, spokesperson for the UN Refugee Agency, told Majalla that improving psychological conditions for young refugees and creating contextually sensitive mental health services is an “enormous area and a huge challenge.”

The NRC is concerned about the hostile environment where uprooted youth feel trapped and disaffected with few opportunities to develop their potential. “Our work is just a drop in the ocean and requires government policies to make sure young people are given the opportunities to thrive in whatever they aspire to do. This will benefit everyone – from the host countries to their country of origin if and when they return,” Hansen said.

Education gives children the skills they need to grow up to be productive and independent members of society and therefore unschooled children have negative short-term and long-term consequences, not just for the individuals, but for both sending and receiving countries. In Syria, the departure of millions of refugees, combined with inadequate schooling will cause longterm deterioration of the county’s most valuable asset, its human capital. Saltmarsh says that in the future when Syria needs it most, there will be a collective shortage of vital skills. “There's a lot of people who have not been working and who have not been in full-time education. So, firstly, you have to hope for peace and that people will return, but when they do they will need to be a lot of support from the international community to help people to physically rebuild structures and then to try to make sure that there are enough good people and staff to run public services and to make sure that the country has the ability to get back onto its feet.”

One of the factors blocking refugee and displaced children from accessing education is the documentation crisis taking shape in the region that is leaving hundreds of thousands in legal limbo, with severe consequences for their ability to access services.

“There are many refugees who are still undocumented – either because they entered the country through irregular channels, or they lost their documents as they fled, or because they lost their registration with the authorities. This puts them at further risks and makes them vulnerable and stops them from accessing essential services, education for their children or jobs,” Hansen explains.

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A child girl standing in the mud outside her shelter at Al-Ihsan refugee camp as Syrians enduring harsh winter at the camp in Idlib, Syria on January ,15 2019. (Getty)

Internally displaced children are facing the same challenges.

Children are often stigmatised because they were born in areas by armed groups and are not being issued the basic documentation they need to prove one’s identity which is fundamental to rebuilding their lives, NRC’s Hansen explains. In Iraq, where internally displaced people are scattered across different governorates, ensuring that the most vulnerable are identified and can obtain their rights is a tremendous challenge. Hansen says that 45,000 children displaced in Iraq’s camps do not have documents providing their identity which deprives them access to education and health care.

“This is depriving them of their most basic rights as Iraqi citizens – creating a neglected generation unable to travel between Iraqi cities and towns, barred from attending formal schools and obtaining educational certificates, and denied access to health care or state social welfare programs,” he explains.

“We need to make sure that education and vocational training are freely available for displaced youth, wherever they are and whatever their status is. Whether a young person has an ID or not or the right paperwork should make no difference to their right to education, training and pursuit of their ambitions. Whether formal or informal education, this is the basis for any improvement in their situation,” he added.

The NRC says that drastic interventions need to be designed to ensure that new generations are not lost to hopelessness and have the necessary skills and education to move forward in life.

“We need to see more wide-ranging reforms that would benefit the impoverished youth who may be citizens of a host country but have been marginalised along the years for reasons of class, sectarian, ethnic and political divisions, not to mention other issues such as corruption and outdated curricula that disenfranchise a lot of youth. The only way to tap into today’s generation of young people is to aspire for equality of opportunities for all citizens and refugees,” Hansen said.

The UN Refugee Agency has for a long time advocated that education needs to be mainstreamed and invested in immediately in humanitarian disaster response rather than being an afterthought. They’ve also called for more money to go into education programs "whether that's specific programs around scholarships for refugees or creating what is known as ‘legal pathways’ for refugees to be able to move to different countries for limited periods and potentially work or study in those countries before they can go back to their home countries,” said Saltmarsh.

A FUTURE IN THE BALANCE It is difficult to overstate the extent of the destruction which the wars in the Arab region have left behind. In Iraq, the liberation of territories from ISIS came at a great human and infrastructural cost. In Syria, the reconquest of terrorisers by Basher al-Assad came after a war which generated half the words refugees and sowed devastation across much of the country. In Yemen, the infrastructure and economy of the country have endured near complete destruction, leaving much of the population at risk of

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Unschooled children have negative shortterm and long-term consequences and social challenges for the refugees, but also for both sending and receiving countries. starvation and disease. While sadly none of these wars have fully ended, attention is increasingly focused on the overwhelming impending challenges of reconstruction. But these mass atrocities have left behind a traumatised, unschooled deeply divided generation, the scale and magnitude of which societies are still struggling to come to term with. The catastrophic damage done to the social fabric of the countries affected will take decades to undo. We are living in an unprecedented time in history and therefore global and shared solutions are needed. Only acting today to ensure that a generation is healing and learning and not lost will we provide a foundation for reconstruction and unlock the hope that all children deserve.

In December last year, the UN approved the Global Compact for Refugees which sets out four main objectives: ease the pressures on host countries, enhance refugee self-reliance, expand access to third-country solutions and support conditions in countries of origin for a safe and dignified return. International organizations, government officials, NGOs, activists, and scholars were all involved in developing the documents. UNHCR’s Saltmarsh said told Majalla that although the agreements have no binding value, they have created a new momentum in the world by shedding light on these issues.

“Although the Global Compact on Refugees is not legally binding, it is probably the most significant international commitment on refugee protection since the 1950s. As such, there is optimism that it can over the medium and longer term help to create new structures which can better support refugees in displacement and give them much more of a route towards independence, dignity and self-reliance.”

Although it is largely a symbolic step, advocates for refugee rights and welfare say they hope the agreement is a starting point for better international cooperation. Whether the compact will make a difference is too early to tell but it ultimately depends on the political will of states to implement their commitments and create systems to ensure meaningful follow-up, review and accountability will be crucial.

NRC’s Hasnen says that both host governments and donor governments must live up to their existing commitments and called on politicians and civil society to diffuse the inflammatory rhetoric that demonises refugees. “Anti refugee rhetoric and xenophobia is becoming more mainstream, and these vulnerable people are easy scapegoats. The end result is more misery and an erosion of hard-fought human rights. We call on politicians and civil society to buck this trend.”

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Iran Arouses Fear in the Arab Gulf U.S. Plans Bolstered Military Presence in the Gulf Following Iranian Provocation

By Joseph Braude In recent days, the U.S. military has dispatched a carrier group to the Gulf while drafting contingency plans for the deployment of up to 120,000 troops to the Middle East in the event of Iranian aggression. Some in Washington view these measures as a prudent exercise in pre-emptive planning, while others have voiced concerns about a descent into open-ended conflict with Tehran.

US DEPLOYS CARRIER GROUP, CONTEMPLATES BOLSTERING GROUND TROOP PRESENCE On May 14, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan announced an updated military contingency plan outlining the

“Any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.» John Bolton

deployment of nearly 120,000 U.S. troops to the Middle East, in the event of an Iranian attack on U.S. forces or sudden Iranian acceleration of nuclear weapons development. Commenting on Iranian policy broadly, President Trump said Monday, “If they do anything, they will suffer greatly. We’ll see what happens with Iran.”

At a meeting of President Trump’s top national security aides last Thursday, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan presented an updated military plan that envisions sending as many as 120,000 troops to the Middle East should Iran attack American forces or accelerate work on nuclear weapons, administration officials said.

This follows a May 5 decision by the White House to deploy an additional Carrier group to the Persian Gulf. Explaining the decision to dispatch the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group as well as a bomber task force to U.S. Central Command, National Security Advisor John Bolton announced that Washington’s goal was «to send a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.»

According to U.S. officials, “specific and credible” threats to American military forces in Syria, Iraq, and the Gulf emanating from Iranian proxy groups prompted the buildup. Although details about the precise nature of these threats have yet to emerge, one official added, «There was enough information to

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A picture taken on May 2019 ,13, shows the crude oil tanker, Amjad, which was one of two Saudi reported tankers that were damaged in a series of sabotage attacks, off the coast of the Gulf emirate of Fujairah. (Getty)

indicate this had to be taken seriously.»

Indeed, shortly after the decision was announced, four oil tankers, including two Saudi vessels, were damaged in a series of explosions in the Gulf. An initial U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Iran was the likely culprit.

In such a context, April comments by senior Iranian military officials take on added salience. Last month, the IRGC Naval Force’s commander Alireza Tangsiri, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, according to state-run Fars news agency.

WASHINGTON DEBATES BROADER IMPLICATIONS Officially, members of the Trump administration view the potential deployment of 120,000 troops and a carrier group as a prudent exercise in contingency planning. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking to reporters over the weekend, downplayed the move’s significance. The deployment was «something we›ve been working on for a little while.» He added, «It is absolutely the case that we have seen escalatory actions from the Iranians and it is equally the case that we will hold the Iranians accountable for attacks on American interests.»

Others, particularly current and former Democratic officials, find the implications of large scale military deployments deeply troubling. Colin Kahl, former National Security Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, tweeted in response to the news, “No plausible contingency except invasion and regime change would require sending 120,000 U.S. forces to the Middle East.”

Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut echoed this wary sentiment: “The one thing we learned from the last time we

Four oil tankers, including two Saudi vessels, were damaged in a series of explosions in the Gulf. An initial U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Iran was the likely culprit. sent 120,000 American troops to the Middle East is don’t send 120,000 American troops to the Middle East,” he said.

Iranian officials, for their part, seemed content to reiterate strident warnings against American aggression. Hamid Baeidinejad, Iran’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, told reporters that the United States is playing a «very dangerous game» as it attempts to «drag Iran into an unnecessary war.”

According to Ali Vaez, director of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, the American measures reflect Trump administration concerns as to whether the pressure campaign on Tehran will yield its hoped-for results. He notes, “Frustration is building up in Washington, as maximum pressure has produced minimum strategic results, and the clock is ticking.” In Vaez’s assessment, “[E]ither Iran digs in, prompting a frustrated White House to double down yet again on measures that alienate key allies and risk regional escalation,” or Iran opts for a more aggressive path “and decides to escalate further in the nuclear realm or in the region.”

White House National Security Advisor John Bolton talks to reporters following a television interview outside the West Wing May 2019 ,01 in Washington, DC. (Getty)

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Saudi-American Relationship: Past, Present and Future Why Relations Between Both Countries Need to be Sustained

by Dennis Ross *

The United States and Saudi Arabia have had a relationship with ups and downs over the last eight decades. Beginning with the meeting between President Franklyn Roosevelt and the Saudi King, Ibn Saud, a relationship was forged that reflected an understanding of our common interests.

Disagreements are natural between friends and the two have had their share, but they always saw the deeper common interests that drove them together.

During the Cold War, the two shared strong common interests in containing and limiting Soviet influence in the Middle East. During the Reagan Administration, it was the Saudis who helped to make the American strategy of raising the costs to the Soviets in Afghanistan a success. Whether looking

Whether looking to counter the influence of the Soviets or their proxies or preserving a stable oil market after 1973, the US and Saudi Arabia cooperated in the pursuit of their common interests and concerns.

to counter the influence of the Soviets or their proxies or preserving a stable oil market after 1973, the US and Saudi Arabia cooperated in the pursuit of their common interests and concerns.

Even before the end of the Cold War, both countries saw the Islamic Republic of Iran as a threat. But it was not only the Shia radicalism that the two saw eye to eye on, but also the secular Sunni extremism of Saddam Hussein. US forces deployed to the Kingdom to help conduct the military campaign of the Gulf War in 1991 and then departed when it was over.

The factors that drove the two together historically—seeing threats in radicalism, wanting evolutionary change and not a new order in the

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (R) attend the Arabic Islamic American Summit at King Abdul Aziz International Conference Center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on May 2017 ,21. (Photo

by Bandar Algaloud / Saudi Kingdom Council / Handout/Anadolu Agency/ Getty Images)

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American president Franklin Delano Roosevelt (R, 1882 1945-) meets with King Ibn Saud (1953 -1880) of Saudi Arabia, chief of staff William D. Leahy (on knee, - 1875 1959) and Col. William A. Eddy (to Leahy's right, 1896 1962 -), minister to Saudi Arabia aboard a United States warship, February 1945 ,20.

(Getty)

Middle East, believing in a stable oil market and supply not subject to threats of disruption or coercion—remain true today. Moreover, security and economic ties over the years have cemented the mutual perception of the importance of the relationship.

For Americans, there has been a sense that we have a commitment to Saudi security, understanding how security and stability in the Kingdom is crucial to broader stability in the greater Middle East. Some of this stems from understanding that those who threaten the Kingdom also threaten the United States. Some of it stems from the sheer financial and economic interdependence— American companies have built extensive parts of Saudi infrastructure and have large investments in Saudi Arabia as a result. But the Saudis over the years also made very large investments in America, producing assets in the US worth over 800$ billion.

With there never being a successful model of development in any larger Arab states, it is extremist states and groups, secular and Islamist, that try to fill that vacuum and contribute so much to conflicts in the region. If nothing else, that gives the US an enormous stake in seeing the Saudi National Transformation plan succeed. Not only would it remove the vacuum that extremist groups have constantly sought to exploit, but a successful model could then be applied elsewhere in the Middle East. In this sense, transformation in Saudi Arabia promises transformation in the region.

At a time when there are real threats in the region from the Iranians and their proxies and from radical Sunni Islamists— ranging from the Muslim Brotherhood to al Qaeda and Daesh—America and Saudi Arabia need to be in sync. Both leaderships need to be open and honest with each other on our differences and an honest, candid discussion is needed

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It is extremist states and groups, secular and Islamist, that try to fill that vacuum and contribute so much to conflicts in the region. If nothing else, that gives the US an enormous stake in seeing the Saudi National Transformation plan succeed. on strategic interests and issues. That discussion should be regularized and deal with the full range of regional and international issues. It is important not just to talk about Iran or the conflicts in the region but also the Russian and Chinese policies and points of agreement and disagreement. It will be important to compare assessments of where things stand in Yemen and Syria as well as what the Administration intends to do on Israeli-Palestinian peace.

Avoiding surprises and coordinating policies where possible should be a premise of these talks. As important as such talks may be, the Saudis must also reach out to the Congress—and to do so on a bipartisan basis. The new Saudi ambassador must reach out to the Democrats on Capitol Hill, but the Saudi leadership should also invite bipartisan delegations to come to the Kingdom for candid discussions. The current differences, especially with the US Congress, won’t simply go away; nor can they be ignored. But listening to each other’s concerns can begin to manage the problems and turn a new page—and that will serve the interests of both countries.

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Huawei Heads South The Battle Over 5G Comes to Latin America have fallen on deaf ears.

Now the campaign against Huawei has reached a The U.S. government is on the warpath against new frontier: Latin America. Mexico and Argentina Huawei. For months, the Trump administration has plan to initiate the region’s first 5G networks in pressured its allies in Europe to exclude the Chinese 2020; Brazil is expected to follow the next year. As technology firm from their 5G telecom systems, in Europe, the Trump administration is working hard insisting that Huawei’s products may pose a security to convince these states not to rely on 5G equipment threat to Western countries. So far, these warnings made in China. But, as in Europe, Washington risks

By Oliver Stuenkel*

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Hamilton Mourão, Brazil’s Vice President, argued that “for the time being,” Brazil did not share U.S. fears that Huawei could pass sensitive information to the Chinese government.

Huawei employees wait for a shuttle bus at the company's Bantian campus on April ,12 2019 in Shenzhen, China. (Getty)

the Trump administration, knows that he stands to lose the advantages of that closeness if he fails to take concrete action against Huawei. The United States could, for example, downgrade intelligence sharing, or bar Brazilian firms from bidding on some U.S. defense contracts, privileges that the United States conferred on Brazil in March when it declared the country a “major non-NATO ally.” Washington could also withdraw its support for Brazil's candidacy to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD. Bolsonaro knows, in other words, that a close alliance with the United States is feasible only if Brazil can help Washington achieve specific geopolitical goals.

Yet doing so comes at a domestic political cost, which is why most past attempts to forge such an alliance have failed.

The same dynamic is playing out today. Despite enthusiastic pro-Trump rhetoric from the antiglobalist faction in the Brazilian government, domestic politics overplaying its hand. will most likely prevent Bolsonaro from delivering Brazil is a case in point. When Jair Bolsonaro, recently on Trump’s demands. Brazilian business groups have elected president, visited his U.S. counterpart in the already begun to defend the country’s deep trade White House in March to establish stronger bilateral ties to China, rightly pointing out that any hope of ties, Donald Trump laid out what he expected from containing China and once more turning the United Brazil to make the new friendship last. Brazil, Trump States into Brazil's most important trading partner told Bolsonaro, would need to become a trusted is little more than unrealistic nostalgia. Working ally in limiting Chinese influence in Latin America. alongside powerful military generals, these business Crucial to this effort, the U.S. government warned, associations are mobilizing to avoid any delays that would be curbing the spread of Huawei technology sidelining Huawei in the region could cause in getting in the region’s next-generation 5G networks. The 5G up and running.

Chinese tech company has already opened an Internet Bolsonaro will have the final say. Yet he faces an uphill of Things lab in São Paulo state and plans to build a battle. Vice President Hamilton Mourão dedicated smartphone assembly plant in Brazil later this year. most of a recent interview to hailing China as a key In theory, Washington has found a stalwart in partner, promising that Bolsonaro would resist U.S. Bolsonaro. The Brazilian president, whose entire pressure to veto investments from Huawei. Mourão, foreign policy strategy depends on moving closer to a retired general, argued that “for the time being,”

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Brazil did not share U.S. fears that Huawei could pass sensitive information to the Chinese government.

Washington's warnings about security risks, he added, were just a cudgel in the U.S.-Chinese trade war, a dispute in which Brazil would not take sides.

Mourão’s view of U.S. foreign policy in Latin America is damning but common. Washington’s attempt to frame its aggressive campaign against Huawei as a defense of the rule of law and fair trade practices has not convinced many in the region. Quite the opposite: the topic has become politicized, eclipsing legitimate concerns about the company’s technology theft and possible ties to the Chinese government. Today, critics can accuse anyone who raises national security concerns about Huawei of blindly toeing the U.S. line in a geopolitical battle between a rising and a declining hegemon.

A similar dynamic is discernible across the region, suggesting that the United States will not easily keep Huawei out of Latin America. In Europe, concerns about the potential risk of Chinese spying for liberal democracies find genuine public resonance.

By contrast, the U.S. undercut its warnings about Chinese meddling in Latin America when leading foreign-policy makers, including National Security Adviser John Bolton, expressed their fondness for the Monroe Doctrine, the principle behind a long and traumatic history of U.S. interventions in the region.

Considering that Latin American elites share a deepseated concern about excessive U.S. influence in the region, but a relatively neutral stance vis-à-vis China,

The Chinese company’s smartphone sales in the region grew by over 50 percent last year. Taking on the Chinese technology giant would not only mean opting for a more expensive competitor; it would endanger jobs and ties to a crucial trading partner.

they have generally preferred to stay above the fray as the West’s relationship with China has spiraled into open mistrust on matters of economic policy, technology, and national security.

As a result, Beijing's focus on the region’s economic development has so far proved more attractive than Washington's attempts to depict Chinese mobile technology as a national and geopolitical security threat. In Brazil, where the NSA spied on former President Dilma Rousseff and her cabinet, leading Rousseff to cancel a formal state visit to Washington in 2013, U.S. warnings about Chinese spying ring hollow—not least because Rousseff’s demand for a formal apology from President Barack Obama went unmet. Elsewhere in the region, too, U.S. anti-China rhetoric comes at a cost. “While the Chinese talk development, all the U.S. talks about is China,” one Central American diplomat told me. “They sound like a jealous ex-boyfriend.”

On a visit to Chile in April, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo publicly attacked China and warned of Huawei's activities. The Chinese ambassador in Santiago fired back, accusing Pompeo of having “lost his mind” and denying that Huawei had any links to the Chinese government. Eduardo Frei, Chile's special

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U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro (L) participate in a joint news conference at the Rose Garden of the White House March 2019 ,19 in Washington, DC. President Trump is hosting President Bolsonaro for a visit and bilateral talks at the White House today. (Getty)

global 5G connections by 2025. Still, the race to bring the next generation of telecom to Latin America will matter far beyond the region. After all, the more 5G markets Huawei captures in the developing world, the better it will be able to become a globally dominant standard-setter.

Privately, Latin American policymakers express bewilderment at the United States’ obsession with Huawei. The Chinese company’s smartphone sales in the region grew by over 50 percent last year. Taking on the Chinese technology giant would not only mean opting for a more expensive competitor; it would endanger jobs and ties to a crucial trading partner.

Given the difficulty and expense of updating digital infrastructure to 5G, Latin American governments will find it politically tricky to justify paying more in the name of security against a threat that sounds both abstract and speculative.

For Latin America, remaining on good terms with China is the more immediate concern. The industries that truly depend on 5G, such as autonomous cars or drones, “smart” cities, and artificial intelligence, will not spread in Latin America before the mid2020-s.

At that point, most of today's policymakers will have left office. But Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Brasília in November 2019, and there he is expected to invite all of Latin America to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Many governments in the region consider Xi’s offer a historic opportunity for their economic development. “It is a mutual benefit,” Mourão, the Brazilian vice-president, said, echoing Chinese “win-win” rhetoric. “China wants our products; we need trains, ports, and highways that facilitate the transport of these products.”

If Bolsonaro, perhaps the most pro-U.S. leader in Latin American history, struggles to steer his country away from China, the Trump administration’s quest to stop Huawei from leading the 5G rollout in the region faces long odds. As the U.S.-Chinese rivalry intensifies, Latin American governments will no doubt avoid siding with China outright. There is, after all, a lot to gain from maintaining cordial ties with both sides. But, as technological spheres of influence go, China is well positioned to take over what was once the United States’ backyard. *OLIVER STUENKEL is an Associate Professor of International Relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, Brazil.

envoy to the Asia-Pacific and former president, also blasted Pompeo's comments, adding that "Chile should not be pressured by anyone." Soon after the Pompeo’s visit, the Chilean president traveled to China to attend the 2019 Belt and Road Summit, where he also met with Huawei executives. Chile would like Huawei to open a plant on its soil. Peru has also expressed interest.

In Latin America, China's lack of soft power and visibility in everyday life may, paradoxically, be its strength. Beijing’s under-the-radar approach has helped it avoid the Sinophobia that has accompanied its deepening trade ties with some African and Asian countries. Many in Latin America still see China as a useful partner to help offset excessive U.S. influence— even though Beijing’s influence in Brazil and Chile by now far outweighs Washington’s. The United States inevitably evokes love or hate—sometimes both.

But when it comes to China, many Latin Americans are simply indifferent. At most, they think of it as an abstract entity. Even the anti-China factions that have emerged within right-wing governments like Bolsonaro’s will only slowly change this perception.

For now, most Latin American telecom operators are focused on expanding existing 4G networks, and the region will account for only around five percent of This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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Mind the Gap The Economic Case for Equal Pay

By Rachel Vogelstein* and Alexandra Bro* Each year in early April, women in the United States mark Equal Pay Day, the date on which their earnings finally reach the amount American men took home the previous year.

Women who hold year-round, full-time jobs earn, on average, 20 percent less than their male counterparts, the equivalent of 80.5 cents on the dollar. The gender wage gap is widest for African American and Hispanic women, who make just 61 and 53 percent, respectively, of what white non-Hispanic men earn. And although the gap is decreasing overall, progress is

slow. At the current rate, American women will not reach pay equity with men until 2106.

The United States is not alone: the wage gap between the sexes is a global phenomenon. Indeed, in not a single country do women earn as much as men. According to the World Economic Forum, women around the world are paid on average just 63 percent of what men earn.

The gender wage gap doesn’t short change only women. A McKinsey Global Institute study estimates that closing gaps between men and women in the work force, including the wage gap, could boost the global annual GDP by up to 28$

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trillion in 2025—gains that would benefit developed and developing countries alike. The United States, for example, could grow its GDP by 4.3$ trillion, China by 4.2$ trillion, and India by 2.9$ trillion if women were to work the same hours as men, participate in the labor force at the same rate as men, and be employed at the same levels as men across sectors. Companies stand to benefit as well: greater female representation in highly compensated corporate leadership positions can improve firm performance. In order to eliminate the gap, however, one must first understand its cause.

WHY THE PAY GAP PERSISTS

Thousands of women participate in 'Women's March for Bread and Roses' in central London as part of global protest taking place in 30 countries around the world.

(Getty)

Given evidence that closing gender inequalities in the workplace could boost growth, what explains the wage gap’s persistence? Outright discrimination—paying a woman less than a man for equal work solely on the basis of her gender— certainly remains a factor, notwithstanding that 40 percent of nations have prohibited this practice. Yet that explains only part of the disparity. Upon closer examination of the data, it’s clear that structural barriers also contribute.

Women remain disproportionately concentrated in low-wage industries and occupations. Indeed, occupational segregation fuels the wage gap in nations across the globe. The higher the percentage of female workers in a given occupation or field, the lower the average earnings—a relationship that exists regardless of the skill level required. In the United States, for example, women are overrepresented in lowerwage education, health care, and retail occupations, while men are disproportionately represented in the higher-paying construction, maintenance, and transportation industries.

Not only do women remain in lower-paying fields, they still spend a disproportionate amount of time on unpaid labor, or so-called invisible work, in their personal lives, which exacerbates the pay gap. Women in countries that are part of with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) spend almost twice as much time on unpaid work as men on average. In the United States, women spend 28 hours on uncompensated labor per week, as compared with only 17 hours for men. Consequently, women also comprise 64 percent of part-time workers: employees who are busy cooking dinner, cleaning the house, and caring for children have less time available for income-generating work.

The gender pay gap widens as employees move up the corporate ladder. This is particularly true for women of color, who face significant obstacles in climbing corporate ranks and have fewer opportunities for advancement to leadership positions. Globally, only 34 percent of managers are women, and in the United Kingdom, male managers are 40 percent more likely than their female counterparts to be promoted into higher-paying roles. In only five countries—the Bahamas, Colombia, Jamaica, Laos, and the Philippines—are women as likely as men to hold managerial positions.

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What explains the wage gap’s persistence? Outright discrimination—paying a woman less than a man for equal work solely on the basis of her gender—certainly remains a factor.

Perhaps nothing depresses women’s earnings more than becoming a parent, particularly low-income women. Studies from numerous countries show that the gender wage gap is close to non-existent up until the point at which women have their first child. In the United States, for example, women who are not married and have no children earn 96 cents for every dollar men make. When women become mothers, however, their wages plummet, even while childless women increase their earnings apace with their male counterparts. Bosses and colleagues tend to perceive women as less competent after they have children, and mothers suffer an average four percent pay cut per child.

Men, on the other hand, actually benefit from having children: their earnings increase more than six percent on average. Even in changing times, the motherhood wage penalty is particularly stubborn: a recent study from Denmark—considered one of the most gender-equal countries in the world—concluded that childbearing accounts for an astounding 80 percent of the national gender wage gap.

THE PATH TO EQUALITY Fortunately, some leaders are taking action to end the pay disparity. A handful of governments have adopted new laws that emphasize transparency: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland require companies to report their pay gap data, and Iceland and France now fine companies that fail to adhere to regulations. Other countries, including Australia and Germany, have extended technical assistance to the private sector on how to close their wage gap or have given employees the right to request peer salary information.

The act of reporting alone can make a difference. Since April 2017, companies in the United Kingdom with more than 250 employees have been required to release information on their overall gender pay gap, the gender distribution of bonuses, and the proportion of men and women in each quartile pay band. Around 50 percent of companies shrank their pay gap in the first year of reporting alone.

Some countries have backed up the new transparency with stronger enforcement. France requires firms to report their

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overall gender pay gap, male and female promotion rates, and the gender of their ten highest-paid employees. Based on these and other indicators, each company gets a score between zero and 100; companies that score below 75 have to draw up plans to address their gender gaps. Firms that fail to implement these plans within three years incur fines of up to one percent of their total payroll.

In Iceland, pay inequality is effectively a criminal offense: companies with 25 or more employees must obtain equal pay certification by the government or face the consequence of a daily fine of approximately 400$ for noncompliance. But Reykjavik has dug down even deeper, in an effort to address the undervaluation of work traditionally done by women: in January 2018, Iceland became the first country in the world to mandate that companies prove they offer men and women equal pay not only for equal work but also for work of the same value, by assessing job classifications and rendering salary determinations according to the value each position brings.

THE RIGHT REFORMS The United States has considered some policy solutions of its own to the problem of unequal pay. The Paycheck Fairness Act, which would require companies to share salary data with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and make it unlawful for employers to prevent employees from sharing compensation information with colleagues, passed the House of Representatives in late March and is an important first step. But even economic reasoning alone suggests a need for further reforms.

According to the McKinsey Global Institute, the U.S. GDP stands to grow by as much as 19 percent if women and men participate in the labor force equally. Reform would also help the United States recover its relative global standing when it comes to women in the workplace. In the late 1980s and early

Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Portugal, and Switzerland require companies to report their pay gap data, and Iceland and France now fine companies that fail to adhere to regulations.

1990s, the United States had one of the highest rates of female labor force participation among Western nations, and its economy benefited; estimates suggest that the U.S.economy was 2$ trillion, or 13.5 percent, larger in 2015 than it would have been had women’s labor force participation rate and hours worked stayed at their 1970 levels. Yet by 2010, most OECD countries had surpassed it in female work force participation.

In 1990, the U.S. women’s labor force participation rate stood at 74 percent, the sixth highest among OECD countries at the time; but by 2010, the rate had increased to only 75.2 percent, putting the United States at a meager rank of 17. A lack of programs designed to support American parents in their prime career and childbearing years may help explain that relative decline. Today, the United States stands alone as the only developed country in the world without any form of mandated paid family leave.

Generous parental leave policies can help the United States offset the disproportionate burden women bear for childcare and unpaid care work and thus narrow the pay gap, but only if done right. In Denmark, where parents are guaranteed one year of paid leave—of which 18 weeks are maternity leave, two weeks are paternity leave, and 32 weeks are parental

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A protester seen holding a placard that says end gender pay gap now during the Labour Day Protest in Manila.

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leave—fathers take only one month off on average while mothers take ten months on average. Out of the shared parental leave period, Danish fathers take less than 12 percent. The gendered expectation that women will be primary caregivers helps explain this result, but simple economics drives many couple’s choices: because the woman is more likely to be the secondary earner, it makes financial sense for her to stay home.

Some governments have intervened by encouraging fathers to take more paternity leave, thereby reducing the motherhood penalty women suffer. It benefits men’s relationships with their children as well: research has found that fathers who take more than two weeks off from work to care for their newborn children are more involved in their children’s care nine months later. In Sweden—which in 1974 became the first country in the world to expand its paid leave policy to include fathers—the government incrementally implemented a policy of so-called use-it-orlose-it months. These are months of paid leave given to one parent that cannot be transferred to the other. When the first such month was introduced in 1995, the immediate effect of the reform was astounding: the number of Swedish fathers

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taking one month of parental leave grew from nine percent to 47 percent. Today, fathers take close to 30 percent of total parental leave, compared with 0.5 percent in 1974 and ten percent in 1998.

Once paid leave ends, however, working parents still face the prospect of paying for expensive childcare, leading some mothers to stay home out of economic considerations. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services deems childcare to be affordable so long as its cost does not exceed ten percent of a family’s income. But across the country, infant care costs on average more than 27 percent of the median household income for single working parents, and one in four families spends more than ten percent of its income on childcare. The hourly cost of childcare grew 32 percent between 1990 and 2010; in 33 states, infant care is actually more expensive than college. Subsidizing childcare, increasing the availability of child-care centers, and improving low-income families’ access to child tax credits could thus significantly increase employment rates for lowincome mothers in the United States.

Without access to childcare or smart parental leave policies, women with children come under systemic pressure to stay home. Unfortunately, the U.S. tax code adds to this pressure by taxing married couples as a unit, thereby penalizing secondary earners. The first dollar earned by the second spouse is taxed at the same rate as the last dollar earned by the primary spouse, as any additional income brought into the household is taxed at increasingly higher rates. Because women disproportionally fall into this category, reforming such tax laws could go a long way in boosting their labor force participation. The Canadian government, for example, replaced a spousal tax exemption with a non-refundable tax credit in 1988. Doing so meant that the secondary earner’s marginal tax rate no longer depended on his or her spouse’s rate. This reform, together with others, including tax cuts benefiting families with children, meant that a woman whose earning potential was lower than her husband’s now had reason to join the work force—and sure enough, such women did so, at a rate ten percent higher than before the tax reforms.

Better policies can’t address every source of pay discrimination. But the persistence of the wage gap suggests that some of the obstacles to pay equity are institutional ones that are susceptible to policy solutions. The United States is long overdue to mind its pay gap—and finally take steps to close it. *RACHEL VOGELSTEIN is Douglas Dillon Senior Fellow and Director of the Women and Foreign Policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations and an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown Law School. *ALEXANDRA BRO is a Research Associate with the Women and Foreign Policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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Ramadan lanterns also called fanouses, are on sale at a market ahead of Muslims' Holy Month of Ramadan at Sayyida Zaynab neighborhood of Cairo in Egypt on May 2019 ,4. (Getty)

Ramadan Around the World

How Traditions Differ During the Holy Month

By Majalla-London

Egypt

Another year has passed and another Ramadan season is upon us. For many Muslim countries, the Holy month of Ramadan is a festive period filled to the brim with traditions. While religious traditions, such as tarawih prayers and fasting, are shared across these countries, each one has different cultural traditions.

Weeks before Ramadan starts, thousands of street vendors in Egypt start selling lanterns of different sizes and colors. Homes all around the country are decorated with these lanterns and children carry around small lanterns that sing various traditional Ramadan songs such as “Ramadan Gana” and “Wahawy ya wahawy”.

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Saudis shop for dried dates in the Saudi coastal city of Jeddah on May 2019 ,3, ahead of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan. (Getty)

Before iftar, families gather around the dining table and wait for the midfa al iftar (iftar cannon) to be fired on TV, the iftar cannon is traditionally fired seconds before the Maghrib call to prayer which signals the end of the fasting day.

Both the lanterns and cannon traditions can be traced back to the Fatimid era in Egypt.

Egyptians usually break their fast with a date and bowl of soup or a glass of Qamar El Din (a type of apricot juice), tamarind or karkadeh (hibiscus). Meals are usually heavy and filling, people will traditionally have coffee and tea after the iftar, as well as traditional deserts such as basbosa or konafa. The families usually get together during the first week of Ramadan while friends usually meet during the rest of

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The Hijaz has another unique drink which consists of Zamzam water infused with burned mastic (a gum that comes from mastic trees). the month.

Saudi Arabia In Saudi Arabia, Ramadan is filled with the smell of sambosa being prepared and the sound of Quran recitation. Unlike in Egypt, iftar in Saudi Arabia is much lighter as Saudis usually break

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their fast with dates and milk. There is a myriad of drinks that accompany a Saudi iftar, such as Qamar El Din, tamarind and soobya, which is a traditional Hijaz drink made from barley or bread doused in water for a few days and sweetened with sugar and raisins. The Hijaz has another unique drink which consists of Zamzam water

Homes all around Egypt are decorated with these lanterns and children carry around small lanterns that sing various traditional Ramadan songs such as “Ramadan Gana” and “Wahawy ya wahawy”.

infused with burned mastic (a gum that comes from mastic trees). People then spend the time after iftar relaxing while drinking tea, coffee and sweets. Ramadan is also a time for family gatherings, which become more frequent during this time of year.

Indonesia

Indonesia has the largest Muslim population in the world and has traditions that differ from those in the Arab world. Before suhoor, many young children will start chanting and banging on drums to wake people up for the meal before the long fast. Pop-up markets selling traditional Indonesian food can be found throughout the streets, even during daylight hours. Moreover, these markets will have festive Ramadan food and drink that isn’t usually sold during the rest of the year. One traditional Ramadan food is Kicak, which is widely eaten in Yogyakarta.

This is a mashed rice based dish mixed with coconuts and sliced jackfruit bulb. Iftar can be

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Nigerian Muslims perform the first 'Tarawih' prayer on the eve of the Islamic Holy fasting month of Ramadan at a mosque in Abuja, Nigeria on May 2019 ,06. (Getty)

Indonesian muslims gather for first iftar (fast-breaking) dinner of Islamic Holy month of Ramadan at Istiqlal mosque in Jakarta, Indonesia on May 2019 ,06. (Getty)

an eventful gathering in Indonesia, as there is the traditional buka puasa bersama, which literally means breaking the fast together. During the

In Indonesia, there is the traditional buka puasa bersama, which literally means breaking the fast together. event, tens to hundreds of people gather to break fast together and such events are usually done in outdoor spaces, such as mosque exteriors.

Nigeria Fruit is a big part of Ramadan in Nigeria, as many Muslims there usually break their fast with fruit before proceeding to the main iftar meal. Iftar in Nigeria is usually light as it consists of fried eggs, roasted corn on the cub and fried yam. As in other countries around the world, families will gather together for Iftar meal and many will go to the mosque to pray taraweh prayers.

A lantern hangs above the workshop of Atef Salama in Birkat al Fil on March 2019 ,23 in Cairo, Egypt.

(Getty)

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1747 - May - 10/05/2019

Brexit: A Very British Carnival

www.majalla.com

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Mohamed Abdel Mottaleb: How His Ramadan Gana Song Became the Holy Month’s Unofficial Theme Tune

By Moncef al-Mazghany Illustration by Ali Minadalou For the past 50 years, the song “Ramadan Gana” has played through airwaves in Egypt as well as many parts of the Arab world to welcome the arrival of the holy month. The song’s lyrics were written by the late poet Hussein Tantawy, while the late musician Mahmoud El Sherif provided its melody. In 1965, Mohamed Abdel Mottaleb recorded the song, which since then has become the unofficial anthem for the advent of Ramadan.

1. Early life and Talent Mohamed Abdel Mottaleb Abd El Aziz El Ahmar was born on August 1910 ,13 in Shabrakheet a district within the Beheira governorate in Egypt. Like most young Egyptians in the early 20th century, he listened to Quran recitations, religious anthems and non-religious Arabic songs.

He memorized the Quran and learned a variety of recitation styles; this would hone his musical skills as he mastered the fundamentals of performance and how to grab listener attention. He soon took part in many concerts as his voice spread across the Arab world and stirred intrigue among many musical artists such Said Darwish,

5. Courtesy towards Audience and Crew While on stage, Abdel Mottaleb would show courtesy towards his audience by constantly displaying a genuine friendly smile. At the end of each concert, he 2. Rising Above the Chorus would thank both his audience members Mohamed Abd El Motalleb wanted to be and his band because he knew that more than just another voice in a choir. As he wouldn’t be where he was without such, he would train his voice to become them. distinguished from those of the rest of the chorus singers. Abd El Motalleb’s 6. Reaching the Cinema Industry talents as a solo singer would eventually When the cinema industry started to rise to be recognized while he was part of Badia prominence, it needed appropriate musical Masbany’s band. numbers which would complement the scenes of drama and romance and Abdel 3. First Song Mottaleb’s songs were the perfect match.

His first popular song, entitled “Betesa’alini Thus, Abdel Mottaleb’s songs went from Bahabek Leih” (You Ask Me Why I Love the radio to the big screen and eventually to You), was recorded in the early 1930s everyone’s television sets. As a result, his under the Baidaphon record label. music spread across multiple generations of Arabs.

4. Poise and Balance Thus Mohammed Abdel Mottaleb became 7. Ramadan’s Theme Song a star during a time when many talented Mohamed Abdel Motalleb passed artists graced the Arab world, but he never away on August 1980 ,21. Despite his let that get to his head. When he was live absence, he left us with a myriad of on stage, he struck the perfect balance of wonderful songs. Perhaps his lasting performing self-confidently without giving legacy is his iconic “Ramadan Gana” off vibes of arrogance. It was this poise, song which millions of Arabs listen to modesty, simplicity and self-confidence and sing when they’re counting down which made him a pleasure to watch. the days to Ramadan.

Zakaria Ahmed Salah Abd El Hai, Badia Masbany and Mohamed Abd El Wahab.

He eventually became part of Mohamed Abd El Wahab’s choir.

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Brexit: A Very British Carnival Why the Political Quagmire became a Circus Bryn Haworth When Andrea Leadsom first came to prominence in the wake of the referendum result, as a possible replacement for David Cameron, was I alone in noticing how she resembled Dame Vera Lynn, the forces’ sweetheart during the war years?

Dame Vera is – incredibly – still alive. It was she who sang ‘There’ll be bluebirds over/The white cliffs of Dover’ when the country was battling for survival against the full fury of Nazi Germany. Bombers, rather than bluebirds, flew over Kent.

Leadsom lost the leadership race after ill-advisedly assuring the press that she would make a great prime minister because she was a mother, one of the few qualifications that Theresa May

lacked. Leadsom seemed not to notice that a great many other women had children, none of whom were expecting to move into Number Ten. This Brexit saga has lasted so long now, one could be forgiven for thinking that Andrea Leadsom (along with all the other characters it has turned into household names) has been around as long as Dame Vera. The white cliffs have had a pretty strong showing too, invariably depicted by cartoonists as the ‘cliff edge’ in question when the politicians and the pundits have threatened us with a ‘no deal Brexit’. The prospect of crashing out of the European Union has led to a kind of race memory of wartime hardship and the necessity of growing one’s own vegetables.

People have even invoked the old slogan ‘Dig for Victory.’ The leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, is said to be secretly in

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The Brexit monster: A hybrid of David Davis, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson and Theresa May.

favour of Brexit, but then as the proud owner of an allotment he has a head start on the rest of us.

None of this sounds very hedonistic. In fact, the whole Brexit issue, overshadowing as it does the pressing need to solve some of the country’s long-standing social problems, has proved so time-consuming that the Conservatives have been able to continue austerity, even as they have claimed to be ending it. Libraries continue to close, schools continue to struggle to buy resources, food banks continue to proliferate along with homeless numbers in our cities, and yet Brexit reigns supreme, sucking up all the parliamentary business that Andrea Leadsom, the tuneless impersonator, announces. Even now, in the hiatus that has followed the dodging of the deadline in March, nothing else gets done.

Part of the problem is that no one has ever known how to interpret the result, let alone how to honour it. Was it a spasm of xenophobia? Was it a more chronic reaction against immigration?

Was it a desire for greater sovereignty? Was it, as many believe, a revolt of the discontented and ‘left behind’ members of the British public against their politicians and the system in general?

We will never really know, for the simple reason that the referendum was a closed question, a binary choice without reference of any kind to further detail. It wasn’t even as subtle a question as the one that tormented The Clash: ‘Should I stay or should I go now? / If I go there will be trouble, /And if I stay it will be double.’

Thus, after frantic dithering, the British people decided by a narrow margin that a certain amount of trouble (go) was preferable to double the trouble (stay), but even this they decided half-heartedly, and without specifying what ‘go’ meant. Since then, we have seen a huge display of ridicule aimed at the politicians, the vast majority of whom did not want to go and didn’t see the trouble doubling if we stayed. But the politicians have surely been poorly treated this time round, as it is the British people who have lumbered them with the nigh on impossible task of reading the runes of the referendum and solving what Danny Dyer, the TV soap star, so wisely referred to as a ‘riddle’.

The ultimate revenge of the voter; that is where one can see the carnivalesque element in Brexit. Carnival has always been associated with Catholicism and with some very un-British behaviour, so when the British resort to its methods, it may not look like the ‘thighs and feathers’ shenanigans in Rio de Janeiro.

There may not be much music, not a lot of jollity, and not a spectacular float in sight, except perhaps this one: But it is carnival nonetheless because, in the way of the old medieval carnivals, it involves the befuddling of the political classes, paralysing the normal operations of government and challenging the elites. The world’s been turned upside down.

The people have spoken. If the politicians are having problems making out what the people have said, well, ain’t that just the problem with politicians?

In one of my old theory books, the Russian philosopher Bakhtin’s epic work on Rabelais and the medieval world, I first learnt about the tradition of the carnival in Catholic Europe, and even as a dreamy young student I could see it was the kind of

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In fact, the whole Brexit issue, overshadowing as it does the pressing need to solve some of the country’s longstanding social problems, has proved so time-consuming that the Conservatives have been able to continue austerity, even as they have claimed to be ending it. thing to give the Protestant work ethic a good name. Carnival was a time of sanctioned chaos, of anarchy really, a period in the year when anything could happen. Instead of the usual authorities, the people paid obeisance to a certifiable numskull, sometimes known as the Lord of Misrule, at whom everyone could have a good laugh. In fact, Bakhtin wrote a whole chapter on the history of laughter, advancing the notion of its therapeutic and liberating force, and arguing that ‘laughing truth... degrades power’. In his book on Dostoyevsky he added, Carnival is past millennia’s way of sensing the world as one great communal performance. This sense of the world, liberating one from fear, bringing the world maximally close to a person and bringing one person maximally close to another, with its joy at change and its joyful relativity, is opposed to that one-sided and gloomy official seriousness which is dogmatic and hostile to evolution and change, which seeks to absolutise a given condition of existence or a given social order. From precisely that sort of seriousness did the carnival sense of the world liberate man.

This reminds one of the recent scolding that school children received from Theresa May for bunking off school to protest against climate change. The cheeky laughter of the pupil turned demonstrator undermines the pomposity of the nanny state as embodied in its starchy head teacher. It is no accident that Private Eye portrays May as a head mistress. For Bakhtin, ‘carnivalesque laughter’ is always punching upwards, directed towards something higher – towards the existing world order. Hence, All the images of carnival are dualistic; they unite within themselves both poles of change and crisis: birth and death (the image of pregnant death), blessing and curse (benedictory carnival curses which call simultaneously for death and rebirth), praise and abuse, youth and old age, top and bottom, face and backside, stupidity and wisdom.

The ‘face and the backside.’ It was Montaigne who wrote: ‘On the highest throne in the world, we still sit only on our own bottom.’ Bakhtin’s Wikipedia entry goes on to explain, in addition to qualities of inversion, ambivalence, and excess, carnival’s themes typically include a fascination with the

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body, particularly its little-glorified or 'lower strata' parts, and dichotomies between ‘high’ or ‘low’. The high and low binary is particularly relevant in communication as certain verbiage is considered high, while slang is considered low.

As we shall see, the Liberal Democrats are running a campaign that seeks to utilise this aspect of Carnival and to wrest control of the agenda from the ‘bad boys’ of Brexit. By adopting the phrase ‘Bollocks to Brexit!’ they are staking a claim to slang and to the language of the lower stratum of the human body. For too long the energy of the (Brexit) Carnival has been directed at the wrong authorities, those in Brussels, while the actual authorities that rule our everyday existence here in England have escaped unscathed and even been able to benefit from subversive laughter.

This is how we end up with the likes of Boris Johnson who, in the manner of a French performer of the last century known as Pétomane, has mastered the art of speaking through his backside.

At first sight, Brexit undoubtedly has a carnivalesque quality and its defiance of authority might even seem refreshing, until you realise that it is the upper classes who’ve been running the show all along.

NO CARNIVAL, PLEASE, WE’RE BRITISH The revellers of medieval society were not so inclined to make that mistake. They knew better than we do who their natural enemies were. One only has to consider the number of revolts that took place in medieval England, by peasants for the most part, and how close they came in some cases to toppling the world order of the day. ‘When Adam delved and Eve span / Who then was the gentleman?’ Oddly enough, it helped to have a religious view of existence, insofar as it put the gentry, aristocracy and even monarchs in their place on the wheel of fortune, and so long as the wheel turned – or whenever another plague happened along – they could fall.

For too long the energy of the (Brexit) Carnival has been directed at the wrong authorities, those in Brussels, while the actual authorities that rule our everyday existence here in England have escaped unscathed and even been able to benefit from subversive laughter.

So, Carnival in its old, lower stratum rudeness and scatological irreverence, was a kind of prototype for insurrection. It temporarily suspended the normal rules of life and could last for as long as three months. It still does, in Guadeloupe.

Now, as we all know, a week is a long time in politics.

Three months, therefore, is much longer than a long time. And if that’s the case, just how unimaginably long is three years?

Because that’s how long this present carnival has been going on now, in merry England, and it is the English who are chiefly to blame for this less than merry season, though the Welsh also had a hand in it. Almost three years ripped from the pages of a nation’s history when nothing got done, when the politicians were increasingly ludicrous in their behaviour, when one carnival buffoon succeeded another and the world stifled its giggles to see this once great country reduced to an ungovernable mess. Three years of tortuous, fractious, jargon-laden inconsequence and the endless dancing of angels on the head of a pin. Three years of repeating the word ‘Brexit’, which is some kind of fossilised form of a joke that was never funny in the first place and was probably, irony of ironies, invented by a Brussels bureaucrat.

It is almost three years since the country voted in a referendum and elevated an idiot to power. But I don’t wish to malign Theresa May here. She might not inspire any great affection, but she is not an idiot. No, it has elevated the ‘will of the people’ to that high office and, like a football result, given an illusion of victory to those who ‘won’. Brexit must indeed mean Brexit. Make mine a red, white and blue one. Many of those who voted for Brexit were

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The young Will of the People (on the left, with his family in the 70’s)

Mikhail Bakhtin, looking quietly amused.

amazed that it didn’t simply happen, the next day if possible, as that was indubitably the will of the people.

But, unlike the transient pleasures of the old-fashioned carnival, gratification has not proved quite so instantaneous. Thus, having vanquished her child-bearing rival, May has become the longsuffering handmaiden to the decision of the electorate, more formally known as ‘Will of the People’, the highest seat of authority in the land. Will of the People is now the one who will decide every last detail of our daily lives: how much we can earn, how hard we must work if we are still productive, how many mouths we can feed if we are still re-productive, and how much we can eat if we are no longer productive. For a country with chronically low productivity, no one is safe.

So, just who is this Will of the People? His fans, by which I mean the politicians on the winning side in the referendum, will tell you he’s the creation of the biggest democratic exercise in the country’s history and that he is incredibly popular, though in the same way as marmite is popular, since almost half of the country hate him.

For three long years he has been served by his handmaiden who claims to be the only person truly to understand him and his whims. May is the people’s most unlikely servant, the daughter of a vicar and wife of a stockbroker whose ‘relatability’ is so low that she has been christened the ‘Maybot’ by satirists. When she tried to blame parliament for its failure to support Will of the People recently, she was roundly condemned for putting its members in danger. Then, soon afterwards, when she tried to

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speak to the people directly from her sofa in Chequers, she was so strained in her relaxed manner she made Gordon Brown’s efforts at a smile seem winsome, which until that point had only made a nation wince.

Will of the People is supreme. His handmaiden, in comparison, is a diminished figure, worn down by defeats in the Commons and before that by a disastrous election she only called to improve her majority (she lost what slender majority she had). There are times when her voice has failed, when a cough has afflicted her, when she has attempted to dance, and with every fresh failure she has diminished further. The former Chancellor, George Osborne, said after the ill-starred election that Theresa May was a dead woman walking. One cartoonist has taken to depicting her as a ghost. And yet, like the Sibyl of Cumae, it is as if she cannot die. Having asked for immortality but forgotten to ask for eternal youth, she sits in Number Ten like a caged grasshopper, shrinking ever smaller and squeaking “I want to die!” so quietly that no one, not even the rivals for her job, can hear her.

So much for Theresa May. As I said, a handmaiden.

WILL OF THE PEOPLE It was perhaps inevitable that, given the essential inscrutability of the result, the will of the people would have to find its embodiment in a person. Cometh the hour and all that. A man who could make, in his own eloquent words, a ‘titanic success’ of Brexit. A man with charm, wit, a bizarre way with the English language and a cavalier approach to the truth. A man intelligent enough to have authored a documentary account of Europe’s indebtedness to Islam, yet populist enough to portray women in burkas as letter boxes and bank robbers. A man who, writing in The Spectator, had referred to pickaninnies with water melon smiles. A man with a Latinate vocabulary picked up in a posh school, who could nonetheless blurt out “F*ck business!” when told that business didn’t want Brexit. A man with Turkish blood who could benefit from the notion that Turkey was about to join the European Union and that Albion would be flooded with freely moving Turks. A man who had, as Mayor of London, plans to build an airport on an island in the Thames and a garden bridge

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across it. A man, in short, who no one could decide if he was a cunning dissembler or a complete buffoon.

Only one man had the necessary talent and charisma, coupled with apparent stupidity, to embody the will of the people and that was Boris Johnson. Who else could have kept the world of British journalism on tenterhooks and holding its breath for the answer to what way he would jump when the referendum was first called? The press camped outside his London flat to hear what he had decided. Johnson, uncharacteristically, spent the weekend in retreat from the press, mulling over his decision: would his ascent to the post of prime minister best be served by supporting his old Etonian buddy David Cameron’s campaign to remain in the European Union, or was this the time to toss friendship and loyalty aside and throw his considerable weight behind the campaign to leave.

It was a tough one. Boris underwent an entire weekend of obscurity without anyone being privy to his thoughts and with no opportunity, under the self-denying ordinance, to speak his mind, entangled in thought, racked, one might conjecture, petrified in the attitude of Rodin’s thinker, assailed by an almost clerical level of doubt. It already looked as if this dilemma would seriously erode his customary good humour. It was, quite frankly, a lamentable waste of a perfectly good weekend.

So, the man of the moment set about drafting two letters, one in which he would loyally declare his allegiance to his old mate and to his country’s future membership of the European club, the other in which he would say the precise opposite.

Finally, after completing the two drafts, he did what he always did in such circumstances – he determined which option best served his ambition and took a gamble: he would indeed embody the will of the people, but only insofar as it was the losing portion of the people. Boris saw no likelihood of being on the winning side. From the noble state of defeat, he would go on to champion the losers. It would put sufficient distance between himself and the old buddy and, you watch, his time would come. The result would narrowly go the way of remain and then he could lead the lost cause he had always cherished qua lost cause, not because he cared one way or the other since, after all, what was the point of an expensive education if one didn’t come out of it insouciant?

When one carnival buffoon succeeded another and the world stifled its giggles to see this once great country reduced to an ungovernable mess.

Caring is a deeply plebeian habit of mind.

Ever the insurgent, Boris would continue an adult lifetime of sniping at the institutions in Brussels, lying about the absurdities of the bureaucrats, and biding his time.

CHAP CALLED CUMBERBATCH Which brings me, inevitably, to Benedict Cumberbatch. One struggles, nowadays, to understand anything without the help of Benedict Cumberbatch.

When starring in ‘Hamlet’ (a play with little to say on the topic of refugees, though at a stretch one might mistake Rosencrantz and Guildenstern for spectacularly failed asylum seekers), Cumberbatch highlighted the issue of refugees after every performance in an extemporised speech, and such was his stardom that only the occasional cantankerous critic objected to these homilies. Pah, critics!

More usually, however, Cumberbatch prefers to portray the leading figures of any given period. This is the actor who persuaded audiences that slave owners were unpleasant people.

It’s also the actor who gave us a penetrating insight into the enigma of a white-haired Australian geek. Sadly, however, we never saw him embody ‘the will of the people’. He might have managed the hair, which is not unlike that of Julian Assange, and the stoop would have been a doddle, but no amount of method acting would have been sufficient to pull off the distinctive body line. Hamlet, Assange and Sherlock Holmes are alike in being skinny. They also have a certain cerebral froideur in common. So it was that we never got Cumberbatch’s Boris Johnson.

Instead, we got his Dominic Cummings. Uncanny, really: the Machiavellian campaign director of Vote Leave, in a play for television by James Graham called ‘An Uncivil War’. The playwright has confessed to liking ‘disrupters’, though of course this is a professional predilection, as disrupters make good drama.

I don’t suppose he likes them much in reality.

The Western world is presently experiencing an epidemic of

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Cumberbatch as Cummings – uncanny, really

An understated poster discarded after the protest

disrupters and has to cling onto its democratic institutions in the same way sheepish footballers cling onto their family jewels when the opposition are awarded a free kick. There is a disrupter in the White House (who is very fond of another disrupter in the Kremlin), numerous disrupters in Italy (including Matteo Salvini, Minister of the Interior, and an ex-pope who retired rather than die in harness and now lingers on, like a fart in a lift, disrupting Pope Francis), a disrupter in Budapest who advocates illiberalism, disrupters on the Champs-Élysées who show up every weekend dressed in yellow, German disrupters who argue that the Second World War was mere ‘bird poo’ in the bigger historical picture of German greatness, and, of course, Steve Bannon.

Here, we have a chap called Yaxley-Lennon who didn’t like having a dead left-wing pop star’s name, so he chose the moniker of a pop star who was ‘glad to be gay’ instead. We all make mistakes. Steve Bannon reckons he’s ‘the backbone of England’, though he actually bears no resemblance to the Pennines, apart from a certain dankness. He doesn’t have a lot of disruptive vitality, to be fair, and he can’t sing for toffee. His only talent is for a bit of straight forward persecuting, mostly of religious minorities.

But Yaxley-Lennon is not the only British disrupter. These days the country has so many, it has to export them. The bulk of our disrupters are exported directly to the European parliament, but if and when we ever leave, finally, they will come back here,

and from that day forward we will never get shot of them.

Dominic Cummings was a comparatively little-known disrupter until Benedict Cumberbatch decided to immortalise him. In fact, the cantankerous critics had a go at the actor for doing just that, as they thought, probably wrongly, that having the greatest thespian of his generation portraying him like this would only encourage Cummings. Sadly, the man needs no encouragement.

He has already determined to his complete satisfaction that he is a towering genius. He is skinny and cerebral for a start. And did he not come up with the slogan Take back control, the most successful since I’m Backing Britain or Go to work on an egg?

According to the script, he picked this up from a manual for new parents, which is possibly the only touching moment in the play.

Cummings is shown as a ruthless strategist, utterly convinced that the British people are crying out for Brexit, although he alone can hear their cries. He hides in broom cupboards, hunched over a hot laptop, calculating his next move. He draws diagrams in a frenzy, hatches plots, stares down his doubters and leads the country towards the sunny uplands with utter, ruthless determination. Throughout, he hears the faint rumble of the nation’s discontent. At one point he goes into the street and, in broad daylight, sinks to his knees, sinks his head down to the tarmac and hears the sound of the country, rumbling. Ear to the ground, see?

Only when the results come in does that rumble cease.

Cummings is no lunatic. He is a visionary in the mould of Savonarola, a fanatic, a Brexit obsessive. He has a brief moment of doubt when an MP is brutally murdered and the campaigning is put on hold, but doubt seldom troubles the true Brexiteer. If those licentious paintings have to be burnt, so be it. If the Irish peace process needs to be halted and even reversed, if the entire population needs to be divided against itself, if the economy needs to be trashed, or if the rule of law needs to be challenged and our venerable democratic institutions disrupted, well, that’s what disrupters do: they disrupt.

“You lost. Suck it up! You’re all re-moaners. Get over it.”

A TALE OF TWO MARCHES But some people just don’t know when they’re beaten. On the 23 March, the BBC reported a massive march of ‘hundreds of thousands’, which made it sound rather less massive than it actually was. In fact, the numbers easily topped one million.

Even the police agreed it was bigger than just ‘hundreds of thousands’, but then they would: these days they’ll say anything to inspire sympathy.

The people who gave us Brexit were quick to condemn the marchers. Kate Hooey, a Brexit voting MP whose constituents voted to remain, reluctantly acknowledged the sheer size of the demonstration. She said the march from Sunderland, a bedraggled ‘leave’ affair organised by Nigel Farage, had never been intended to be big. It was ‘symbolic’ she said.

Other Brexiteers were more openly disgruntled. A young woman on Sky's Press Review claimed to be ‘appalled’ by it.

Michael Gove's wife, Sarah Vine, tweeted that there were no

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leave protesters around on the day, as they would certainly have been lynched. This was a comical observation to anyone at the demonstration. Many of the protesters were young parents. There were prams everywhere, numerous pet dogs. It would have been the first time in history that a gang of toddlers, possessed by blood lust, had grabbed their hapless political opponents and strung them from the lampposts.

Demonstrations have a mood and attitude all of their own, and this one's energy was not remotely violent. There were no police to be seen. The choppers that whirred clunkily overhead belonged to the TV news channels. The whole thing had what journalists like to call ‘a carnival atmosphere’. That makes it sound noisy, though, and a bit brash. In fact, it was quietly satirical and a little bit rude. There were numerous unicorns held aloft and the phrase ‘Bollocks to Brexit!’ (possibly inspired by the Sex Pistols’ great album) was everywhere: on stickers, on badges, shouted with subversive glee. A girl who could have been no more than five or six was perched above the shuffling mass of people inching its way down Piccadilly, shouting (and she really had a voice on her) the sunnily (but not as in the newspaper) alliterative phrase. To this, the entire crowd responded with the same words as they crept past. Nowadays it has been adopted by the Liberal Democrats, leading to prim opinion pieces lamenting the lowering of the tone of public debate.

It wasn’t all colourful language. As I came back up Villiers Street later, I found a placard dumped in a bin that read: I’m rather against this nonsense. That typified the studied understatement of many of the placards.

However, outside a Covent Garden pub a man in a wheelchair sporting unfeasibly large bollocks made of soft material agreed to let me photograph them as long as I didn't take a picture of his face. And so, with the encouragement of his girlfriend, I found myself pointing my mobile at a stranger's crotch.

This was the kind of demonstration which partakes of the true carnival spirit, with the atmosphere, yes, but also the traditional subversion of authority.

The demonstration that followed, on the missed date of the country’s departure, had a more sombre aspect. Not a toddler or funny placard in sight. This was the Real Brexit Carnival. A host of disgruntled leavers, many of them classed as ‘gammons’ by their opponents, otherwise identifiable as white middle-aged men, were united in their utter disbelief that they were still in the European Union and marched on parliament to vent their anger. The Disrupter in Chief, Nigel Farage, told them to put the fear of God in their elected representatives, while the man with the name of a gay pop star – we all make mistakes – was there too, bathing in the crowd’s adulation, his face projected on a big screen opposite a dejected statue of Churchill, as he had a go at religious minorities for no apparent reason. A lot of union flags were in evidence. Jon Snow, the reporter from Channel Four News, commented that he’d “never seen so many white people in one place”.

It didn’t go down well, that comment. Well, not with the disrupters.

COMETH THE BREXIT What do they teach them at Eton? Not how to comb their hair, tuck their shirt in or stand up straight, obviously. Foreign affairs and diplomacy are not in your average Etonian’s skill set either.

But gaming the system in whatever way the times require, check. Cultivating a flair for mendacity, check. Getting a ‘fag’ to do all your dirty work, check. None of this gets a mention in the school’s boating song.

Anyone lacking the proper mendacity and facility with lying gets his head rammed down the pan of a toilet and the cistern flushed, pronto. He is then required to learn by heart Cicero’s Second Oration against Catiline and caned on the bare nates for any grammatical errors or failures of memory, and if the errors are repeated and in sufficient number, he is nailed to the exterior wall. I’m lying, obviously. I may not have gone to Eton, but I can lie with the best of them, on paper.

Adulthood is the eventual reward for the miseries of a privileged education. Deprived of childhood, they finally get to be children from the moment they leave school. And when an Etonian comes of age, fully equipped with the capacity to deceive the populace, he is already groomed for power.

I suppose it seemed obvious to most of his teachers that Will of the People would go far, being such a good liar. And he is, of course, an inveterate one. Only the other day, when there were local elections across the country, he claimed to have voted at his local polling station and urged others to do so, despite the fact

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Brexit Illustration by Anish Kapoor

that he lives in London and the metropolis had no elections on that day. He later deleted the tweet.

While in Brussels, Will of the People would send accounts of preposterous and mostly invented bureaucratic edicts for the disgusted relish of Eurosceptic readers. He showed no regard for veracity: Johnson did not invent Euroscepticism but he took it to new levels. A brilliant caricaturist, he made his name by mocking, lampooning and ridiculing the EU. He wrote stories headlined “Brussels recruits sniffers to ensure that Euro-manure smells the same”, “Threat to British pink sausages” and “Snails are fish, says EU”. He wrote about plans to standardise condom sizes and ban prawn cocktail flavour crisps (Martin Fletcher, New Statesman, 1 July 2016).

Boris still writes for the Daily Telegraph and was recently caught lying about statistics, by an actual statistician called Mitchell Stirling. Johnson had maintained that departure without a deal was ‘by some margin preferred by the British public.’ When it turned out this was a distortion of the truth, the newspaper, ever loyal to its mendacious star columnist, protested that the article was clearly an opinion piece, and readers would understand that the statement was not invoking specific polling – no specific dates or polls were referenced. It [the paper] said that the writer was entitled to make sweeping generalisations based on his opinions and that the complainant had misconstrued the purpose of the article; it was clearly comically polemical, and could not be reasonably read as a serious, empirical, in-depth analysis of hard factual matters.

It was all to no avail. The Independent Press Standards Organisation’s Complaints Committee ruled that there had been

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a ‘failure to take care over the accuracy of the article’. But hang on, failure? In this society, at least since the financial crash of 2008, there have only ever been rewards for failure, so long as you belong to the right circles, which might account for the large sums Boris gets paid for ‘sweeping generalisations’ which are so ‘comically polemical.’

Simply lying, however, has not brought him to the very threshold of Number Ten. The eye-watering school fees his parents paid equipped him with the eloquence to bamboozle the populace, yet it is not rabble-rousing speeches of gravity and foreboding that he excels in. Whenever he attempts the oratory of Churchill, his hero, Will of the People has a tendency to sound self-conscious. Soaring rhetoric is not his forte, and this is a good thing, as soaring rhetoric is not fashionable. Will is shrewd, in a way never foreseen by his most devious educators. Cometh the hour, cometh the comedian. We have seen how, on the jolly old continent, the clowns keep getting into office and spouting their populism like trick buttonholes. It’s the carnival of our times. The age did not demand some latter-day Ezra Pound with complicated theories about usury. Poetry is also out. Nor does the age demand another Enoch Powell with all those rivers of blood.

Classical learning, references to the Tiber, that kind of thing, just sound too grim and portentous. Only an Ironic Enoch can hope to get under the radar and evade the liberal thought police. He needs to be a man with a confident grasp of the demotic in perpetual search of a comb. In this ancient society, almost unobserved, there has been a breakdown in the usual relationship between the Anglo-Saxons and the Normans. The elite are still the inheritors of the Conquest, but it is they who speak the most fluent AngloSaxon. The Norman yoke is now the Anglo-Saxon joke. That’s why the Liberal Democrats have adopted the bollocks to Brexit mantra, in a vain effort to catch up with the really rude people: Britain’s elite.

But they are doomed to failure, and they won’t reap any rewards for it. Will of the People is ruder than any of them. He is the twenty-first century’s very own Pétomane, that French showman whose lower stratum entertained Edward, Prince of Wales, King Leopold of the Belgians and Sigmund Freud (naturally) with tunes like ‘O Sole Mio’. Boris is the Lord of Misrule, the Great Disrupter. In his role as Will of the People, he is the subterranean voice of the populace groaning under the yoke of Brussels. He can win more hearts and minds with his lower stratum than the Lib Dems could ever win with their mealy mouths. Like his illustrious French predecessor, he can achieve the sound effects of cannon fire and thunderstorms, blow out a candle from several yards and deliver a passable version of Land of Hope and Glory, all from his expressive fundament, whilst being paid vast sums for doing so. The elite needed a jester and every conference season he gave them one.

Now, as the highest office in the land at last seems attainable, he will give the entire country a jester for prime minister. The chief architect of the great Carnival of Brexit will bumble into Downing Street and, stooping slightly with his back to the lectern, entertain an adoring public with his very own rendition of ‘Ah Sole Mio’. That’s Boris for you.

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Protect Your Brain From Stress

Stress Management May Reduce Risk for Alzheimer’s Disease and Dementia Harvard Health It’s not uncommon to feel disorganized and forgetful when you’re under a lot of stress. But over the long term, stress may actually change your brain in ways that affect your memory.

Studies in both animals and people show pretty clearly that stress can affect how the brain

functions, says Dr. Kerry Ressler, chief scientific officer at McLean Hospital and professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School. Scientists have seen changes in how the brain processes information when people experience either reallife stress or stress manufactured in a research setting. (For the latter, researchers might challenge subjects to perform a difficult task, such

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There is evidence that chronic (persistent) stress may actually rewire your brain, says Dr. Ressler. memory, it’s important to understand a little about how the brain works. Your brain isn’t just a single unit, but a group of different parts that perform different tasks, says Dr. Ressler.

Researchers believe that when one part of your brain is engaged, the other parts of your brain may not have as much energy to handle their own vital tasks, he says. For example, if you are in a dangerous or emotionally taxing situation, the amygdala (the part of your brain that governs your survival instincts) may take over, leaving the parts of your brain that help to store memories and perform higher-order tasks with less energy and ability to get their own jobs done. “The basic idea is that the brain is shunting its resources because it’s in survival mode, not memory mode,” says Dr. Ressler. This is why you might be more forgetful when you are under stress or may even experience memory lapses during traumatic events.

as counting backward from the number 1,073 by 13s while being graded.) Either type of stress seems to interfere with cognition, attention, and memory, he says.

Stress affects not only memory and many other brain functions, like mood and anxiety, but also promotes inflammation, which adversely affects heart health, says Jill Goldstein, a professor of psychiatry and medicine at Harvard Medical School. Thus, stress has been associated with multiple chronic diseases of the brain and heart. In addition, it can affect men and women differently, she says.

STRESS AND THE BRAIN To understand why stress affects thinking and

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The effect that stress has on the brain and body may also differ depending on when it occurs in the course of someone’s life, says Goldstein.

Certain hormones, known as gonadal hormones — which are secreted in large amounts during fetal development, puberty, and pregnancy and depleted during menopause — may play a role in how stress affects an individual, says Goldstein.

“For example, reductions in the gonadal hormone estradiol during the menopausal transition may change how our brain responds to stress,” she says

Protect yourself from damaging stress To better cope with stress, consider how you might minimize factors that make it worse. Here are some tips that can help you better manage stress and hopefully prevent some of the damaging effects it could have on your brain.

• Establish some control over your situation. If stress isn’t predictable, focus on controlling the things that are. “Having a routine is good for

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development and health,” says Dr. Kerry Ressler, professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School. Predictability combats stress.

• Get a good night’s sleep. Stress can result in sleep difficulties, and the resulting lack of sleep can make stress worse. “Sleep deprivation makes parts of the brain that handle higher-order functions work less well,” says Dr. Ressler. Having healthy sleep habits can help. This includes going to bed and waking up at the same time each day, avoiding caffeine after noon, and creating a relaxing sleep environment.

• Get organized. Using strategies to help manage your workload can also reduce stress. For example, each day, create a concrete list of tasks you need to accomplish. This way, your duties won’t seem overwhelming. Making a list also gives you a clear end point so you know when you are done. “Laying tasks out like this helps reduce the feeling that the brain is being bombarded,” he says. It can also help you predict when you are likely to be stressed.

• Get help if you need it. Reaching out can help you become more resilient and better able to manage stress, which may ultimately protect your brain health. Earlier intervention may reduce disability caused by stress-related complications later on.

• Change your attitude toward stress. “A life without stress is not only impossible, but also would likely be pretty uninteresting — in fact, a certain degree of stress is helpful for growth,” says Dr. Ressler. So, rather than striving for no stress, strive for healthier responses to stress.

The effect that stress has on the brain and body may also differ depending on when it occurs in the course of someone’s life.

LONG-TERM BRAIN CHANGES There is evidence that chronic (persistent) stress may actually rewire your brain, says Dr. Ressler. Scientists have learned that animals that experience prolonged stress have less activity in the parts of their brain that handle higher-order tasks — for example, the prefrontal cortex — and more activity in the primitive parts of their brain that are focused on survival, such as the amygdala. It’s much like what would happen if you exercised one part of your body and not another. The part that was activated more often

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on the developing brain, some research has found that people who demonstrate resilience in the face of past childhood trauma actually appear to have generated new brain mechanisms to compensate.

It’s thought that these new pathways help to overcome stress-related brain changes that formed earlier in life, he says.

IS ALL STRESS CREATED EQUAL? While the effect of stress on the brain is well documented, it’s less clear exactly what type of stress will prove damaging and raise the risk of memory problems later in life. Do brain problems occur when you are under a small amount of stress or only when you experience long-term stress?

“That’s a tough question, because stress is a broad term that is used to describe a lot of different things,” says Dr. Ressler. The stress you might experience before you take a test is likely very different from the stress of being involved in a car accident or from a prolonged illness. “Certainly, more stress is likely worse, and long-term stress is generally worse than short-term stress,” says Dr. Ressler.

But there are additional factors that make stress more harmful, he says. In particular:

would become stronger, and the part that got less attention would get weaker, he says. This is what appears to happen in the brain when it is under continuous stress: it essentially builds up the part of the brain designed to handle threats, and the part of the brain tasked with more complex thought takes a back seat.

These brain changes may be reversible in some instances, says Dr. Ressler, but may be more difficult to reverse in others, depending on the type and the duration of the stress. While stressful childhood experiences seem to take more of a toll

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• The stress is unpredictable. Animal research shows that animals that could anticipate a stressor — for example, they received a shock after a light turned on — were less stressed than animals that received the same number of shocks randomly.

The same is true in humans, says Dr. Ressler. If a person can anticipate stress, it is less damaging than stress that appears to be more random.

• There is no time limit on the stress. If you are stressed about a presentation at work or an upcoming exam, the stress you are experiencing has an end point when you know you will get relief. If the stress has no end point — for example, you are chronically stressed about finances — it may be more challenging to cope with.

• You lack support. If you feel supported during your stress, you are likely to weather it more successfully than if you don’t.