Vision 2030 Presents a Window of Opportunity for Saudi Steel and Iron

Iran Is Testing the Trump Administration

A Weekly Political News Magazine

The Middle East’s Technological Renaissance

Issue 1768- October - 04/10/2019

A Weekly Political News Magazine

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Issue 1768- October - 04/10/2019

Greta Thunberg: The Teen ‘Eco-Warrior’ Who’s Inspired Worldwide Strikes www.majalla.com

Vision 2030 Presents a Window of Opportunity for Saudi Steel and Iron

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Editorial Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 plan is in full motion, as the Kingdom has set its sights on ridding itself from its economic dependence on oil. In order to diversify its economy, Saudi Arabia has started investing and building its other industries, one of the said industries is that of iron and steel. While the iron and steel and industry has been in place since the late twentieth century, it is now that it’s becoming a core part of the Kingdom’s economic network. Recently, the National Committee for Steel Industry held the First Saudi International Steel and Iron Conference, where industry domestic and international industry leaders discussed the role the industry will play in the Kingdom’s future and how it can develop its industry towards its highest potential. Ahmed Taher writes on this recent conference, and the conclusions and suggestions it has raised for the Kingdom. He also gives a brief overview of recent breakthroughs within the domestic industry, such as Saudi Arabia’s first-ever steel export which was made last year.

Over the next decade, artificial intelligence (AI) technology is going to make a giant leap, as more advanced technologies will become a part of our daily lives. As expected, leading global economies such as the US, China, Germany, and South Korea are investing heavily in AI research. The Middle East isn’t sitting idly by, as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have also invested in AI research, and the results have already been seen. For example, the UAE’s ALEF platform has already made great advances in the country’s education sector, while Saudi Arabia has started building its high tech mega-city NEOM, where robots will reportedly outnumber humans. Yasmine El-Geressi gives an overview of these advances and plans in Saudi Arabia and the UAE as they ascend as regional leaders in AI technology.

Following last week’s annual General Assembly gathering, new information has surfaced regarding Macron’s failed efforts to get Trump and Rouhani to speak in the same room. According to various sources, Rouhani refused to meet with Trump and would only agree to do so if he agreed to various prerequisites such as lifting all the sanctions on Iran and a guarantee that the US would go back to the JCPOA. Naturally, Trump refused to give in to these demands and no meeting between them was held. Joseph Braude reports on these events and how France’s diplomatic efforts were rendered futile by Tehran’s unreasonable demands.

We invite you to read these articles and more on our website eng.majalla.com. As always, we welcome and value our reader’s feedback and we invite you to take the opportunity to leave your comments on our website.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

14 Iran Declines an Off-Ramp Overture

Issue 1768- October - 04/10/2019

26 Will Nuclear Weapons Make A Comeback?

22 How Americans Were Driven to Extremes

08 Sudden Protests Rock Iraqi Capital, Spreads to other Regions

09 French Foreign Minister Issues Warning on the

Iranian Regime’s Possible Next Moves

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34 ‘Joker’ Has Finally Arrived 3

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Chinese military march in formation as they do a last rehearsal before a parade to celebrate the 70th Anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China at Tiananmen Square on October 2019 ,1 in Beijing, China. The day marks 70 years since Mao Zedong announced the formation of the People's Republic of China in 1949. (Getty)

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A religious person gestures in front of a bonfire called "Demera" during the Meskel celebrations, a religious holiday held by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church at Meskel square in Addis Ababa, on September 2019 ,27. Meskel marks the finding by Saint Helena of the "true cross" on which Jesus was crucified. It began on September 27 afternoon with Demera, a ceremony that drew tens of thousands of people to central Addis Ababa, the capital, for hours of dancing, chanting, drumming and prayer. (Getty) 7

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eekly news Northern Ireland and the UK will need to be declared at the border. After 4 years, the Northern Irish Assembly can choose if it wants closer relations with the EU or the UK, if it chooses the former then the customs border could be rearranged, and if it chooses the latter then the regulatory border would be reworked.

Paris Police Employee Murders Three Officers in Police Headquarters An IT employee, who hasn’t been named, went on

Sudden Protests Rock Iraqi Capital, Spreads to other Regions Mass protests have occurred this week in Baghdad, triggering an early challenge to Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi who has only been in office for a year.

Most demonstrators are from the disenfranchised youth who suffer from mass unemployment and complain over a lack of public services. While the protests have started spontaneously, they soon garnered mass appeal as it spread to other areas in the country, particularly in southern cities such as Amara, Diwaniya, Hilla, and Nassiriya.

Security forces have clashed with the protestors, and the violence has so far cost the lives of 20 people. Looking to end the unrest, Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi implemented an indefinite curfew in Baghdad and has also made a televised address on Thursday when he stated that he would give in to the protestor’s demands and would start by giving poor families a basic income. Furthermore, he asked lawmakers to support him to reshuffle cabinet posts and urged calm after three days of deadly civil unrest rocked the country.

is much more complicated than that. Basically, Johnson’s government is proposing two borders be placed around Northern Ireland, a regulatory one between it and mainland UK in the Irish Sea and a customs one between it and the Republic of Ireland. The regulatory border would be placed since Northern Ireland would be following some of the single market rules, which would not apply to the rest of the UK and the customs border would be placed since Northern Ireland (along with the rest of the UK) would be out of the EU customs union.

Customs checks between both Irelands would be placed away from the border, (the proposal doesn’t state the distances) as to make sure that there isn’t technically a physical border between them. The border between Northern Ireland and mainland UK would be in place since the former would be following some of the single market’s agricultural and industrial rules and any goods moving between

Boris Johnson Presents Final Proposal to Brexit Deal

a knife attack at police headquarters in Paris, killing three officers and one administrative worker while critically injuring another employee. The attacker was shot dead by police, and thus far the motive of the attack is unknown, while the incident happened a week after a police strike happened in the capital little evidence points to the strike as a motivating factor. Rather, there is a reason to suggest that a work dispute might have triggered the attack, as Christophe Crepin, a police union leader, told the BBC that there were tensions between the attacker and his supervisor. However, the attacker had been working for the police for the past 16 years and has reportedly shown no signs of violent behavior over these years.

Satellite Images Show Adrian Darya 1 Preparing to Transfer Oil to another Tanker

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has presented his final proposal to the Brexit deal to the EU this week. The proposal abandons the prospect of keeping the UK in the customs union indefinitely, and instead Northern Ireland will remain in the EU single market for the next four years but the proposal

Adrian Darya 1 might be preparing to transfer its cargo to another Jasmine, another Iranian-flagged oil tanker. The controversial tanker was previously seized by British authorities last summer for

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violating EU sanctions which prevent oil sales to the Syrian regime. The tanker has since been released, despite US objections, but now appears to be part of a potential ship-to-ship transfer, as satellite images show it being connected to Jasmine via mooring lines.

French Foreign Minister Issues Warning on the Iranian Regime’s Possible Next Moves

succeed, are still on the table and it is up to Iran and the United States to seize (them) in a relatively short amount of time because Iran has announced new measures to reduce its commitments to the Vienna accord in November,” Jean-Yves Le Drian told parliament’s foreign affairs committee.

Iran is breaching the restrictions of its 2015 nuclear deal with major powers step-by-step in response to U.S. sanctions imposed since Washington pulled out of the agreement in May of last year.

It has said its next reductions would be at the start of November and diplomats fear the next move could force European powers who are trying to salvage the accord to respond, unlike after previous breaches.

“These measures risk leading to a new period of tension and new escalation so we must take advantage of the political space that exists to move forward,” Le Drian said.

he publically requested the Chinese government to investigate Hunter Biden’s (Joe Biden’s son) allegedly illegal business practices in Beijing.

Hunter traveled to China with his father, when the senior Biden was vice president, in 2013.

The trip came months after Hunter became an unpaid board member of a new investment fund with a Chinese private equity manager, the New Yorker reported. Hunter Biden has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. Most experts think that China will not likely follow through Trump’s request, one because it has little to gain from it, especially considering the current circumstances of the ongoing trade war with Washington, and two because of Beijing’s longstanding policy of not getting involved in any country’s internal affairs.

Bernie Sanders Temporarily Puts Campaign Trail on Halt as He Undergoes Heart Surgery

Trump Requests China to Investigate Bidens’ Potential Illicit Business Activities Iran and the United States have one month to get to the negotiating table, France’s foreign minister warned, suggesting that Tehran’s plan to increase its nuclear activities in November would spark renewed tension in the region.

“We consider that these initiatives, which didn’t

One week after stirring controversy by secretly contacting the Ukrainian leader for dirt on the Biden’s son (something that triggered impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives), Trump appears to have taken a much more different approach this week when Vermont Senator and Democratic Presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was hospitalized this week after suffering chest pains. It was later revealed that Sanders underwent surgery for clogged arteries, but reports suggest that he is on his way to a speedy recovery and his wife insists that he will be ready for the October 15 democratic debate. The -78year-old is the oldest person to run for US president, and there has been a public debate on whether or not the senator has the health required for such for the strenuous work that comes with occupying the highest office in the country. Back during the 2016 election, Hilary Clinton triggered similar debates after she displayed several signs of fatigue and possible seizures.

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Vision 2030 Presents a Window of Opportunity for Saudi Steel and Iron The First International Iron and Steel Conference Addresses the Emerging Industry’s Needs

by Ahmed Taher “This International Iron and Steel conference will shed light on the investment opportunities within the Saudi Arabian steel industry. It is these opportunities which

will advance our cooperation with various international steel companies, and with their expertise in the field we can further develop our domestic iron and steel products.” This was part of Bandar Alkhorayef’s, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources,

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The second need that the Kingdom must address is the need to export domestic steel to the international market.

opening statement at the First Saudi International Iron and Steel Conference, which was held on September 17 and was organized by the National Committee for Steel Industry.

This conference’s goal was to attract international investors toward the Saudi steel and iron industry, to do those international and regional leaders in the industry were invited to the conference where they had various meetings leading Saudi figures in the same industry.

Various topics were discussed including the aspirations of the Saudi steel industry, private sector participation in upcoming building projects, the establishment of new economic hubs, the country’s growing economic demand for steel and iron and the future of labor in the construction sector. The conference’s significance wasn’t derived just from the fact that it was the first of its kind; rather there is a myriad of reasons that highlight the conference’s importance.

First of all, the conference was held during the time in which the global steel and iron industry is facing a number of different challenges, such as the ongoing trade war. The conference addressed these issues and discussed how the industry can overcome these challenges to protect the strategic importance of iron and steel in the global economy.

Second, the presence of industry giants made the conference more noteworthy as 800 individuals participated in the event, and 46 large regional and international iron and steel corporations also took part.

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Furthermore, there were 43 speakers in the conference who represented 23 countries, most of whom spoke of novel scientific methods towards the development and stimulation of the industry.

The very subject the conference was centered on, signifies its importance as the use of steel and iron in various manufacturing processes, makes it a global strategic industry. The industry is also one of the largest global employers, and Ra’ed El Agaiby, the president of the National Committee for Steel Industry and the chairman of this conference, emphasized this fact when he said that some studies indicate that the iron and steel industry has created 48 million jobs around the world, 42 million of said jobs are indirectly related to the industry itself. As such, it can be safely assumed that the industry is a driving force for various jobs around the world.

In accordance with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiative, the development of the iron and steel industry is part of the Kingdom’s plans of diversifying its economy beyond oil. Moreover, Industry Minister Bandar Alkhorayef has said that through its Vision 2030 plan, the Kingdom is supporting its economy with promising sectors, this is why it recently launched the National Industrial Development and Logistics Vision Realization Program which aims to turn Saudi Arabia into a leading industrial power. So far, this program has successfully launched 300 initiatives, which is onethird of the initiatives set under Vision 2030 to steer the Saudi economy away from oil. To do this, the Kingdom has focused its attention on four key sectors: industry, mining, energy, and logistical services. At the core of all these sectors is steel and iron, an industry that the Kingdom has a long history with as it understands how vital it is for sustainable economic development.

It is evident that the steel industry will play a large role in the Kingdom's Vision 2030, especially since the Kingdom aims to raise the GDP contribution of the mining industry from $ 17 billion to $ 64 billion by 2030.

Saudi Arabia has subsequently decided to expand its factories and institutions that are involved in the industry. As it stands, there are currently 7,551 licensed

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iron and steel factories, which collectively employ 800 thousand workers. These factories have also received more than one trillion riyals in investments and produce 13 million tons of iron and steel products. The following is a list of the most prominent Saudi factories operating in the iron and steel industry:

SAUDI IRON & STEEL COMPANY [HADEED] The Saudi Iron and Steel Company was founded in Jubail in 1979, and it is owned by SABIC. It started operations in 1983 and it produces skewers, reinforcing bars, wire coils, steel sections and in 2000 it started producing steel plates. That same year the company underwent new expansion, which increased its production capacity of long and flat steel products. It currently employs 3,500 employees.

JEDDAH NATIONAL STEEL FACTORY COMPANY The Jeddah National Steel Factory Company was founded in 1976 and is a subsidiary of the manufacturing sector. The company makes steel pipes, boilers, sandblasters, storage tanks and the coatings of steel structures.

RAJHI STEEL Rajhi Steel is one of the companies founded by Sheik Mohamed Abdel Aziz El Rajhi who founded the corporation in 1984. The company built its first reinforcing bars production line in Riyadh in 1996.

It built its first metal rolling factory in 2007 and its second one in 2012 located in Jeddah.

Source: Mervat Abd El Moniam, A Chronological List of Saudi Steel Companies, August 2017. https://www.almrsal.com/post/513271 This conference has shown that the iron and steel

Last year, Solb Steel exported steel to Africa, marking the first time Saudi Arabia exported its steel to the international market.

industry will play a central role in the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 Initiative, as it will be a core part of economic growth and diversification. It should also be noted that the Kingdom has a raw iron reserve of 780 million tons, which can be used to meet the needs of the country’s steel factories and presents a good opportunity for investors to look into this lucrative market. The conference came out with 13 recommendations to develop the industry, among such recommendations were reducing the prices of raw materials at the local level, implementing policies that encourage foreign and private investments and establishing institutes and academies focused on the steel and iron industry.

To implement these recommendations, then two vital needs will need to be addressed: First, the Kingdom needs to facilitate domestic competition in the Saudi steel industry. This is especially true in light of increasing local consumer confidence in Saudi steel after the industry adopted the standards set by the Saudi Standards, Metrology and Quality Organization in 2017. These standards also highlighted the need to review the challenges the local industry faces, such as the lack of iron ore. Mohamed El Gabr, the head of the National Committee for Steel Industry, addressed this when he said: “The lack of iron ore is one of the barriers holding back the Saudi steel industry, as it has caused high production costs, export charges and competition from imported products.”

As such, it is necessary that protectionist policies are implemented, which is why El Gabr has called for “Imposing duties on imported iron products to protect domestic iron products. Such protectionist measures will inevitably reduce the ability of nations with iron

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Saudi Arabia recently launched the National Industrial Development and Logistics Vision Realization Program which aims to turn Saudi Arabia into a leading industrial power.

surpluses to export to countries with such policies.”

This is exactly what happened in 2018 when the US and EU introduced tariffs on steel and iron products, this created a surplus in global steel production, these countries then started looking for new markets to drain their surplus. However, a decline in the global economy decreased the number of potential buyers willing to pay such high tariffs and instead they imported steel from other countries that export cheaper, but lower quality steel. This presence of inferior foreign steel meant that Saudi steel and iron companies didn’t face as much competition from foreign steel industries.

The second need that the Kingdom must address is

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the need to export domestic steel to the international market. By the end of 2018, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry issued 54 exporting licenses and Mohamed Bin Dergem, the National Committee for Steel Industry’s representative in the Council of Saudi Chambers wants the Saudi government to issue export licenses for corporations that make up the Saudi iron and steel industry. He thinks that more exporting opportunities will make Saudi steel more competitive in the international market and would enable Saudi steel companies to outsource their excessive steel and iron.

Last year, Solb Steel exported 473.1 thousand tons of steel to Africa, marking the first time Saudi Arabia exported its steel to the international market. This doesn’t mean, however, that Saudi Arabia can become a major steel exporter overnight; the Saudi minister of Industry recently indicated that the country is still one of the world’s largest steel importers as it buys almost 4 million tons of steel from abroad.

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Iran Declines an Off-Ramp Overture French Efforts to Bring Washington and Tehran Together Rendered Futile

by Joseph Braude Tehran has doubled down on a course of diplomatic brinkmanship that may inadvertently consolidate the Western alliance. President Rouhani spurned a long-planned overture

by French President Macron to broker a clandestine meeting with U.S. President Trump, while publicly expanding Iran’s list of demands before agreeing to any negotiation.

In response, the White House has re-committed itself to

isolating Tehran and accelerating a cyber-campaign against its nuclear program.

Tehran’s Unrealistic Demands According to a September 30 New York Times report, Iranian President Rouhani rebuffed a French effort to broker backchannel negotiations with U.S. President Trump. Following months of clandestine negotiations,

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French President Macron had carefully arranged a secure room where Rouhani could speak over the phone with President Trump.

But, in the end, Rouhani refused to even leave his room, effectively bringing the French effort to Trump had offered to remove all U.S. sanctions, but that Tehran declined the offer due to the current “toxic atmosphere.”

Iran’s Foes Parry

French President Emmanuel Macron (L) and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks after a meeting at the United Nations headquarters on September 2019 ,23, in New York. (Getty)

French President Macron had carefully arranged a secure room where Rouhani could speak over the phone with President Trump. But, in the end, Rouhani refused to even leave his room, effectively bringing the French effort to nought.

Rouhani’s behind-the-scenes intransigence cast his remarks to the UN General Assembly that same day in an ominous light. While addressing reporters at UNGA on September 25, the Iranian President laid out a series of improbable conditions to precede any American-Iranian reconciliation: ”First, the [JCPOA] deal should be fully implemented ... meaning that sanctions should be lifted and America should return to the nuclear deal."

Even while laying out these preconditions, Rouhani called on Washington to abandon its own terms for negotiations: "We want America to remove its preconditions for talking to Iran, including its 'maximum pressure' policy against the Iranian nation" before any talks can be possible, he said. A few days later, Rouhani claimed that President

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For his part, President Trump wasted little time in pouring cold water on both Rouhani’s version of events and his expansive calls for sanctions relief. On September 27, Trump tweeted, “Iran wanted me to lift the sanctions imposed on them in order to meet. I said, of course, NO!” On a September 28 interview with NBC, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif indicated that the US had accelerated nonkinetic efforts to degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, claiming that “the United States started that cyber war, with attacking our nuclear facilities in a very dangerous, irresponsible way that could’ve killed millions of people.

You remember Stuxnet?” He added: “So there is a cyber war ... and Iran is engaged in that cyber war. But the United — any war that the United States starts, it won’t be able to finish.”

A few days later, Iran’s Passive Defense Organization chief Gholamreza Jalali appeared to corroborate Zarif’s claims, noting that “America has started its cyber war against Iran,” while remaining guarded about providing more details. In his remarks, he warned that Iran would “decisively will resort to cyber defense,” and that, in his view, this should be considered a “strategic mistake” by the United States.

For his part, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman hinted at the ramifications of the escalating conflict in the Gulf in a September 29th interview with PBS: "If the world does not take a strong and firm action to deter Iran, we will see further escalations that will threaten world interests," he said. "Oil supplies will be disrupted and oil prices will jump to unimaginably high numbers that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes." He also added, "The political and peaceful solution is much better than the military one.”

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Iran Is Testing the Trump Administration

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Iran has chosen to act very brazenly with these strikes. If there is no consequence for that choice, the Islamic Republic will be even more emboldened.

The day of the strikes, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lost no time in attributing them to the Iranians.

The Saudi Ministry of Defense has displayed remnants of the drones and cruise missiles used—all Iranian made— and the ministry’s spokesman, Colonel Turki al-Malki, said the attack was “unquestionably sponsored by Iran.”

That choice of words left vague whether the Iranians had conducted the attack themselves from Iranian territory. But U.S. officials have said in background statements that the cruise missiles were launched from Iranian bases. Pompeo declared the strikes an “act of war”—certainly implying that the United States must do something about them.

So far, the president has responded with his instrument of choice: sanctions. His administration has called its approach to Iran to date “maximum pressure,” though it might more accurately be called “maximum economic pressure.” Now Washington needs to ask itself whether this approach matches the current test.

MOTIVE AND OPPURTUNITY

A damaged installation in Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant is pictured on September 2019 ,20.

(Getty)

On September 14, drones and cruise missiles struck Saudi Arabia’s most important oil-processing facility, at Abqaiq.

The attacks don’t just threaten the global oil supply, of which Abqaiq accounts for roughly five percent. They pose a critical test for the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.

If the Iranians attacked Saudi Arabia’s most important oil facility directly, from their own territory, they have crossed a threshold. They have also acted in a manner completely out of character. The Islamic Republic typically works in the region through proxies, allowing for plausible deniability. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif have denied that Iran was behind the recent strikes. But the attackers clearly used Iranian weapons, including short-range drones that could not have reached Abqaiq if fired from Yemen—making Houthi claims of responsibility an obvious deception and cover for Iran.

Iran has chosen to act very brazenly with these strikes.

If there is no consequence for that choice, the Islamic Republic will be even more emboldened. Worse, an ineffectual response will send a message internationally that there are no rules, no limits, and anything goes.

The Iranians have some motivation for such out-ofcharacter behavior. To begin with, they think they can get away with it. They have lost their fear of the United States and believe it won’t respond. Add to that the fact that they are being terribly squeezed by the Trump administration’s

by Dennis Ross

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maximum economic pressure policy, which they believe gives them reason to push back.

The Iranians have observed the Trump administration closely. On May 5, John Bolton, then the U.S. national security adviser, announced that the United States was sending a carrier strike group to the Gulf because it had intelligence that the Iranians were planning attacks on U.S. forces in the region. Bolton declared that Washington would respond with “unrelenting force” to attacks on U.S. forces, interests, or friends in the Middle East. In the days and then weeks that followed, limpet mines blew holes in the hulls of four oil tankers; Houthi drones attacked Saudi civilian airfields and oil-pumping stations; mines exploded more tankers in the Gulf of Oman; Shiite militias fired rockets about 300 meters from the American embassy in Baghdad, as well as at American bases north of Baghdad; and the Iranian military shot down a U.S. drone. Only for the last of these did Iran take credit.

The United States did not use “unrelenting force”—or any force—in response to the string of attacks. On the contrary, the administration appeared to retreat from long-standing U.S. commitments. Back in January 1980, President Jimmy Carter had declared the Arabian Gulf a vital national security interest of the United States. Trump abandoned that stance in late June of this year, when he tweeted that the United States does not get its oil from the Gulf region and that those who do should assume the principal responsibility for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. According to the president, preserving the free flow of oil, at least from the Middle East, is no longer a vital American interest or security responsibility. Moreover,

The problem is that the Trump administration has lacked a strategy toward Iran. It has principally been prepared to use a single instrument: economic pressure. But economic pressure is a means, not an end.

the president called off the planned military retaliation for the downing of the U.S. drone. The Iranians concluded that as long as they didn’t kill American servicemen and servicewomen in a direct, overt strike, the United States would not respond. Everything below that threshold was fair game.

The foregoing explains why the Iranians have not been deterred from attacking U.S. allies and interests. But it does not account for Tehran’s motivation in intensifying that campaign in the first place. The economic pressure policy is relevant here. On May 4, the Trump administration ended the waivers that permitted several countries to buy Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions. The express purpose was to drive Iranian oil sales to zero. The Iranian leadership decided then to meet Trump’s maximum pressure with its version of maximum pressure on U.S. allies and interests in the Middle East. Until that time, Iran’s “malign activities” were part of the landscape, but they were not escalating.

After the end of the waivers, the Iranians began not only to attack the oil supply—by way of the tankers and smaller Saudi oil facilities and pumping stations—but also to gradually walk away from their end of the Iran nuclear deal.

That the Iranians would respond to the Trump administration’s maximum economic pressure campaign should not have come as a surprise. After all, Iran has long maintained that if it could not export oil, no one else in the region would be able to either. Moreover, Tehran has made clear at the highest levels that it views the U.S. sanctions policy as one of economic warfare against the Islamic Republic. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in a speech on September 17 that the Islamic Republic should therefore “create deterrence . . . so that the enemy realizes he cannot pressure the nation through the economic sector.”

By “creating deterrence,” Khamenei means to raise the price for the United States such that it will back off of its economic pressure campaign. The posture is not a new one for Iran’s supreme leader. Back in May, he noted that the United States was trying to weaken Iran so that it would come back to the negotiating table and concede. Khamenei said that the Islamic Republic would do no such thing— rather, it would apply its own “leverage.”

WASHINGTON NEEDS A STRATEGY That Iran would meet Washington’s maximum pressure with a maximum pressure campaign of its own, designed

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U.S. President Donald Trump listens to a presentation about prescription drugs during a cabinet meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (L) (Getty)

to get the United States to back off, should have come as no surprise. But the Trump administration is clearly surprised, having assumed that the Iranians could be squeezed into coming back to the table and submitting. Washington neither anticipated nor planned for Iranian retaliation in the region. It did not prepare for the kinds of attacks the Iranians have been behind or are now carrying out.

Ironically, an administration that often speaks of Iranian “malign activities” failed to anticipate that Iran could ratchet them up in response to the real economic squeeze it imposed on the Islamic Republic.

The problem is that the Trump administration has lacked a strategy toward Iran. It has principally been prepared to use a single instrument: economic pressure. But economic pressure is a means, not an end. If the objective is, as Trump says, not regime change but a change in the regime’s behavior, then the administration needs to employ all the tools of statecraft—diplomatic, political, economic, cyber, military, intelligence, and public messaging. Iran must be politically isolated, put on the defensive internationally,

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subject not just to U.S. pressure but to collective pressures.

It must be named and shamed and exposed for its behaviors.

Washington has to show conclusively that many of the drones and cruise missiles were launched from Iranian bases. Given the Trump administration’s lack of credibility, it will need others to join with it in presenting the facts about the source of the attacks. If the United States has the proof; and the French send their analysts to investigate; and the United Nations takes up the Saudi invitation to investigate—then the information can be collectively released, exposing the Iranians and revealing that their denials are lies. At a minimum, the revelations will put the Iranians on the defensive and raise the pressure on the Europeans to respond.

If Iran has in fact directly conducted these attacks, it has undermined regional and international stability in a manner that Washington should highlight to the public both at home and abroad. At issue is not just the defense of Saudi Arabia but the establishment of international rules such

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that open aggression and attacks on critical infrastructure cannot be carried out with impunity.

Sooner or later, Tehran will miscalculate and set off a wider war. Pompeo should make clear that to think that Trump will continue to show military restraint is a mistake.

And the United States should work to secure a commitment from the Europeans to join U.S. sanctions unless Iran acts immediately to defuse tensions.

China and Russia should be enlisted to convey similar messages to the Iranians. Beijing depends on oil from the region, and the last thing it wants is a major conflict or for more oil facilities to be attacked. The United States should persuade China to adhere to U.S. sanctions if Iran doesn’t stop the aggression and to tell Iran that the investments it receives under China’s Belt and Road Initiative are at risk. Russia doesn’t have the economic leverage with Iran that China has, but the Islamic Republic takes Moscow’s threats and warnings seriously. If President Vladimir Putin sees the Trump administration acting seriously— diplomatically and potentially militarily—he will likely to offer to mediate between Trump and the Iranians, in an effort to show that he can help shape events, and knowing that he has more sway with the Iranians than the French do and that Trump is responsive to him as well.

The Trump administration should also consider supplementing its diplomatic efforts by taking a page from the Iranian playbook. The United States can engage in deniable acts that nonetheless disable or destroy certain high-value Iranian targets. If deemed necessary, such actions would produce what appear to be accidents—but the supreme leader would get the message. He would understand that the adventures of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are becoming too risky and that the United States will not give in to Iranian pressure.

Iran has long maintained that if it could not export oil, no one else in the region would be able to either.

On the contrary, the Trump administration needs to turn that pressure around by isolating Tehran internationally, exposing its recent acts, and showing that U.S. restraint has limits. The trick will be to keep tightening that vise even while offering Iran a way out, lest the Iranians see us as more in need of a deal than they are.

Khamenei has said that Iran will talk only if the United States returns to the nuclear deal; Rouhani has stipulated that Washington drop sanctions. Both conditions indicate the purpose of Tehran’s maximum pressure campaign. The United States and Iran are unlikely to negotiate directly in the near term, but mediation remains possible and could focus on both the nuclear

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Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (L) and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at an Astana format meeting on the sidelines of the 74th session of the UN General Assembly at the headquarters of the United Nations in Manhattan. (Getty)

deal and defusing regional dangers.

For such a mediation to succeed, the Trump administration will have to clarify its aims. Washington must determine under what conditions it would consider returning to the nuclear agreement—for example, if the so-called sunset provisions, which set the timeline for Iran’s compliance, were extended to 15 years. The president should lay out the changes to Iran’s regional behavior that he would accept: say, for Iran to stop providing Lebanese Hezbollah with advanced rockets and precision-guided munitions; for Tehran to pressure the Houthis to settle in Yemen; and for Iran to cease putting its rockets in areas of Iraq under Shiite militia

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control. Trump will need to make clear what he is prepared to offer in return for such actions. For example, he may offer to lift the nuclear-related sanctions.

Given that many non-nuclear sanctions are enshrined in legislation, he could also offer to set up a specialpurpose vehicle that would allow U.S. companies to transact with the Iranians within certain bounds.

Iran is testing the United States and the international community now. The Trump administration needs to show that it knows how to answer.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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How Americans Were Driven to Extremes In the United States, Polarization Runs Particularly Deep 22

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by Thomas Carothers and Andrew O'Donohue Every day brings more evidence of the United States’ profound political polarization. Partisan intransigence, vitriol, and divisiveness now contaminate most government institutions.

What is more, these sentiments have steadily infiltrated every nook and cranny of American life. The 2020 presidential campaign will only further intensify the country’s partisan tribalism. And despite the lofty praise that news media and civil society heap on politicians who work across party lines, the divisive trend continues with no end in sight.

The more than 35 books published on this subject in the past decade have shed much light on partisan dynamics. Yet almost without exception, they examine U.S. polarization as an isolated phenomenon, separate from the experiences of other countries. In our research and advocacy work, we have taken a different tack.

Collaborating with scholars from around the world, we have examined the striking rise of severe polarization in numerous other democracies, including Bangladesh, Colombia, Poland, and Turkey. In each case we took a close look at the roots of polarization and then traced its trajectory over time, analyzing the main drivers as well as the negative consequences and attempted remedies.

Although polarization in the United States shares some basic features with political divisions elsewhere, we found that it stood out in many crucial respects. American polarization has deep roots that have taken decades to grow and strengthen. The United States may look much like many other angry, divided countries, but its brand of polarization raises specific concerns about the future and functioning of its democracy.

WHO KILLED CONSENSUS? In most highly polarized states, the fundamental divisions arose first among elite political actors. They then spread throughout society when politicians made calculated efforts to solidify or expand their bases. U.S. polarization has altogether different sources. Partisan sentiment bubbled up from the belly of American society, not the head.

U.S. President Donald Trump walks in a corridor of the White House to greet visitors, while a portrait of Hillary Clinton hangs on the wall, March ,7 2017 in Washington, DC . (Getty)

The cultural transformations that swept the United States in the 1960s and 1970s first set the trend in motion. During this period, the civil rights movement, the women’s rights movement, the anti–Vietnam War movement, and the sexual revolution all upended established traditions and hierarchies. Two contending visions of America emerged from the maelstrom: a progressive vision that embraced far-reaching sociopolitical change and a conservative vision that sought to block or limit it. Politicians and political parties were slow to use the emerging rift to their advantage. Instead, social activists, evangelists, and public intellectuals drove the rise of polarization within American society.

Only later did polarization worm its way into the formal

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The United States has many traditions and institutions that help its democracy hold together in the face of the centrifugal pressures. political realm. As the progressive and conservative social movements gained force and coherence, their ideologues vied for influence within the Democratic and Republican parties, seeking to transform what had for several decades been two catchall, ideologically heterogeneous parties into more defined, programmatic organizations.

In most other seriously polarized countries, charismatic leaders were the main contributors to the schism. Not so in the United States. Until recently, there was no American equivalent to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey or President Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. In fact, most U.S. presidents in the past four decades have tried to appeal at least somewhat to the center— whether it was Richard Nixon pursuing a raft of relatively moderate socioeconomic policies, Bill Clinton adopting a strategy of “triangulation” after 1994, or George W. Bush trying to advance some elements of “compassionate conservatism.”

Donald Trump is a startling exception in this regard. He is the first U.S. president within living memory to wield polarization as a core political strategy, deliberately seeking to intensify partisan emotions around the most divisive issues facing the country.

But his administration is as much a symptom as it is a cause of polarization. In this, Trump is unlike his counterparts in Ankara or Caracas.

To the extent that polarization in the United States comes from the bottom rather than the top, political elites cannot easily reverse or moderate it, even if they genuinely wish to do so. Countries that manage to ease polarization are typically ones where a sharply divisive figure has left the scene and his or her successors are able to walk back the corrosive partisanship. In Ecuador, for instance, President Lenín Moreno has moved away from the antidemocratic tactics of his predecessor, even though the two men come from the same party. In the United States, by contrast, partisanship has continually deepened over the last five decades, regardless of who has occupied the White House. The lesson is clear: Trump’s eventual departure may temper America’s polarization fever, but it will not cure the malady.

POISONED ROOTS The story of polarization is much longer in the United States than in most democracies. Only a few other countries, such as Argentina and Kenya, have been grappling with severe

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polarization for more than half a century. Even fewer face polarization that continually intensifies rather than burning out over time. Most current cases of extreme polarization are, at best, 20 years old. (Consider Hungary, Poland, or Venezuela.)

Because of its durability, partisanship in the United States has become a characteristic that is passed down across generations, making another kind of political life hard to imagine.

What is more, polarization in the United States is especially multifaceted. In most cases, polarization grows out of one primary identity division—usually either ethnic, religious, or ideological. In Kenya, for instance, polarization feeds off fierce competition between ethnic groups. In India, it reflects the divide between secular and Hindu nationalist visions of the country. But in the United States, all three kinds of division are involved.

The clash that emerged in the 1960s and 1970s between progressive and conservative worldviews had a strong ideological component—especially when compared to the era of “consensus politics” that came immediately before. That said, race was and continues to be a major fault line—one that cannot, and should not, be ignored. And religion matters too: movements in the 1960s and 1970s to legalize abortion, to increase access to birth control, and to ban state-sponsored prayer in public schools brought religion directly into political debates and decisions.

This powerful alignment of ideology, race, and religion with partisanship renders America’s divisions unusually encompassing and profound. It is hard to find another example of polarization in the world that fuses all three major types of identity divisions in a similar way.

The cultural transformations that swept the United States in the 1960s and 1970s first set the trend in motion. Two contending visions of America emerged from the maelstrom: a progressive vision that embraced far-reaching sociopolitical change and a conservative vision that sought to block or limit it.

A BROKEN SYSTEM Political life in the United States has some distinct structural features that feed polarization. A two-party system could work against bifurcation if the leading parties are moderate, catchall parties that compete for the political center. But the United States is unusual in that it has a two-party system dominated by parties that have, in recent decades, become not just more ideological but also quite institutionally weak. (Both parties now use open primaries to choose candidates and rely on more candidate-driven than party-driven political financing than is common in other democracies.) The parties have thus given up most of the tools that would allow them to serve as moderating gatekeepers, both at the national and state levels.

More important, the first-past-the-post electoral system is a powerful obstacle to the formation of major third parties that could break up partisan binaries.

The record elsewhere shows that two guardrail institutions are crucial in preventing strenuous political competition from

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California National Guardsmen, bayonets at the ready, block the street during protests near People's Park on the campus of the University of Berkeley, Berkeley, California, May 1969 ,19. (Getty)

veering into destructive polarization—an apolitical judiciary and an independent election administration. While the courts safeguard democracy in many respects, the U.S. judiciary has certain features that undercut its function as a bulwark against polarization. The overtly political process for appointing and confirming Supreme Court justices (as opposed to the more consensus-oriented and depoliticized processes in other major democracies) encourages partisanship. At the state level, some judges are elected with party support—a practice tantamount to letting polarization in through the front door.

When it comes to elections, the United States is one of the few wealthy Western democracies that places elected officials in charge of election administration. The system’s attendant vulnerability to partisanship was on full display in the disputed 2000 presidential election. Fights over voter access highlight the problem today. No other established democracy is still struggling to settle such basic rules about how voting should be carried out.

And the weakness of the system as a guardrail against polarization is thrown into even sharper relief now that the United States has

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a president who repeatedly broadcasts patently false allegations of election fraud.

THE ROAD AHEAD The barbs of U.S. polarization today are unusually sharp.

Thankfully, the United States has many traditions and institutions that help its democracy hold together in the face of the centrifugal pressures: above all, the country has a deep attachment to the rule of law, constitutionalism, and the idea of democracy itself. The same is not true elsewhere. Countries that have descended into severe polarization without some or all of the abovementioned anchors—like Bangladesh, Thailand, and Turkey—have suffered serious blows to their democracies. But not everything that makes the United States politically distinctive works against polarization. Indeed, political tribalism may be as American as apple pie.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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Will Nuclear Weapons Make A Comeback?

Why the Global Nonproliferation Regime Is Fraying

by Eric Brewer Last month, the United States withdrew from a landmark missile treaty with Russia. Another crucial arms control treaty,

the New START agreement, is set to expire in early 2021.

China and several other countries with nuclear weapons, unconstrained by any treaty commitments, have been building up their arsenals. But as the global arms control architecture

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Only a handful of countries worldwide have nuclear weapons, and the risk of new entrants into the club, most experts agree, is relatively low.

But although nuclear proliferation has remained mostly in check so far, there is reason to doubt whether it will do so indefinitely. The international order and the United States’ role within it are changing. The treaties, security commitments, and sources of leverage on which nonproliferation rests may not survive these shifts. Washington shouldn’t be surprised if the nuclear landscape—and its ability to manage it—soon changes for the worse.

THE WRITING ON THE WALL Today’s consensus on preventing the spread of nuclear weapons did not always exist. In the early years of the Cold War, some in the United States argued that proliferation was inevitable and that having more nuclear-armed states on Washington’s side could actually be an advantage. But the winds shifted by the mid1960-s, and Washington and Moscow both realized the risks of open-ended proliferation. By 1970, both sides backed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, under which countries that did not already have nuclear weapons pledged not to seek them in the future.

The treaty effectively forced fence sitters to make a decision, and the overwhelming majority of states decided against nuclear weapons.

Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty signing by the USSR, the USA and Great Britain.

(Getty)

has frayed and weapons stockpiles grow, one pillar holds steady: only a handful of countries worldwide have nuclear weapons, and the risk of new entrants into the club, most experts agree, is relatively low.

On balance, the United States’ nonproliferation efforts have been remarkably successful. No country that does not already have nuclear weapons seems to be developing them, although some, such as Iran, have the capabilities to do so.

Most countries have opted not to build their own warheads in part because international treaties have erected legal, political, and normative barriers to the bomb and in part because the United States has made extensive security commitments to its allies around the world. Washington and its partners have also established that those who get caught proliferating face tough penalties.

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Over time, governments built additional tools to close any loopholes. The Nuclear Suppliers Group, which comprises nearly 50 states, has successfully tightened controls on exports of sensitive technologies that could be used for proliferation.

And several incidents in the 1990s, including the discovery of Iraq’s hidden nuclear program in 1991, prompted states to expand the inspection powers of the International Atomic Energy Agency—powers that today make it easier for the agency to inspect Iran’s nuclear program.

Few U.S. allies have developed nuclear weapons in large part because they had the United States and its vast arsenal on their side. Washington, in turn, has used those countries’ dependence on its military might—and on other forms of U.S. military, economic, and technical assistance—as leverage if one of them nonetheless evinced nuclear ambitions of its own.

That leverage was critical to preventing Taiwan, South Korea,

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and Germany from going nuclear.

Would-be proliferators are well aware that, especially since the end of the Cold War, the United States has had the ability to inflict devastating economic harm on countries that do not abstain from weapons development. Washington has in the past levied painful domestic and UN-imposed economic sanctions against Iraq, Libya, North Korea, and Iran to convince their leaders that the cost of their nuclear programs outweighed the benefits. In the cases of Libya and Iran, the resulting isolation played no small part in pushing them to limit their programs or scrap them altogether in exchange for sanctions relief.

Because nonproliferation has depended so heavily on U.S. leadership, alliances, and enforcement, it has come under serious pressure during the tumultuous administration of President Donald Trump. That pressure, combined with rising global threats—Russia, China, North Korea, and now even the specter of an unconstrained Iran—has produced a combustible mix of proliferation pressures among friendly countries.

To be sure, U.S. allies have always worried that Washington might abandon them, but Trump’s actions put him in a class of his own. He has made clear that he views the U.S. alliance system as a liability, not an asset, and he has repeatedly questioned whether the United States would honor its defense commitments if allies were attacked. The U.S. president has tried to strong-arm countries that host U.S. troops into coughing up more money to “compensate” the United States for providing security, and he has routinely praised the likes of Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un—leaders of the very regimes that U.S. alliances are intended to defend against.

Whether or not Trump’s hostility to the U.S.-led world order outlasts his presidency, some of its attendant characteristics are likely to live on and perhaps even grow in American politics.

These include the devaluation of free trade, a skepticism of international institutions, and a transactional approach to

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently complained that it was unfair that Turkey could not develop nuclear weapons.

alliances. Future leaders in Washington who may seek to sustain the current international system and the United States’ position within it will have to contend with the rise of rival powers and the burden of fiscal requirements and political gridlock at home.

None of these trends bode well for nonproliferation. The barriers that the United States has helped erect to thwart the spread of nuclear weapons are strong but not self-sustaining.

The United States cannot turn away from them and expect to keep proliferation contained. In fact, doubts about the United States’ commitment have driven allies and partners to seek nuclear weapons in the past: President Richard Nixon’s policy that allies should do more to shoulder the burden of their own defense and his efforts to normalize relations with communist China helped stimulate South Korean and Taiwanese nuclear ambitions.

Today, U.S. allies have so far refrained from trying to build the bomb. There has been some recent debate in this direction in Germany, and public support for a nuclear weapons program remains high in South Korea, but there are no widespread calls to join the nuclear club in either country. It is hard to know, however, whether governments may be having more serious

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People watch a television news screen showing file footage of a North Korean missile launch, at a railway station in Seoul on September 2019 ,10.

(Getty)

longer a sure-fire way to cut off a country’s revenue.

Imposing “maximum pressure” on North Korea—already a pariah state—is one thing. Levying penalties against major economies or allies on a scale sufficient to outweigh the benefits of a nuclear weapons arsenal, and convincing the international community to support those efforts, is quite another. If Washington sanctioned a global player such as Japan, the United States would risk damaging its own economic and security interests in the process.

Punishing allies is not only complicated, it might also take a back seat to other objectives. This is what led Washington to tread lightly when trying to rein in Israel’s nuclear program in the 1960s and Pakistan’s in the 1980s. But those approaches failed. Today, in an era of rising great-power competition, Washington might once again downplay or ignore concerns about a partner’s nuclear weapons ambitions and focus instead on the more important goal of countering Russia or China.

Greater U.S. emphasis on burden sharing might also allow or encourage allies to develop capabilities useful for nuclear weapons. For example, South Korea could resume its push for the development of a nuclear-powered submarine, which could bolster allied efforts to counter North Korea but could also serve as a potential justification for uranium enrichment.

THE AUTHORITARIAN CHALLENGE discussions behind closed doors. Countries considering the bomb need to make advance bets about whether the United States is likely to be a reliable and predictable partner in the future. Little in Washington’s current behavior would suggest that it will.

HOW FAR WILL WASHINGTON GO? Usually, any country would have to think seriously about the penalties it could face for developing nuclear weapons. After all, the United States wields considerable economic power, from which it could still fashion incentives and punishments that would cut short any moves toward proliferation. But even that ability is coming under strain.

For one, economic sanctions on would-be proliferators lose their sting as countries develop the means to work around the United States’ dominance of the global financial system.

Disagreements with Washington over Iran policy, for example, have led European states to think about how to protect against and circumvent U.S. sanctions. And as North Korea’s cybertheft of billions of dollars from banks and cryptocurrency exchanges shows, even near-universal export sanctions are no

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Washington’s flagging ability to act as a nonproliferation enforcer will be made worse by the global rise of authoritarian regimes. Personalist leaders—who research suggests are especially likely to seek nuclear weapons—have taken power in NATO countries such as Turkey and Hungary. (Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently complained that it was unfair that Turkey could not develop nuclear weapons.)

These autocratic leaders are less likely to worry about violating international norms and treaties. Worse still, there is less risk that a secret nuclear program will be exposed, or that a civic outcry will interfere with its progress, in countries that lack democratic institutions, political opposition, and press freedoms.

Trump’s departure from office will likely ease some of these negative trends. But others—such as a global reorientation away from the U.S.-led international order—have no easy policy fixes. The United States will have to think anew about the types of proliferation challenges it is likely to face in the decades ahead, its sources of leverage, and how it can realistically use them. Washington is by no means powerless— but it needs to wake up to how geopolitical shifts are chipping away at decades of efforts to prevent proliferation.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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The Middle East’s Technological Renaissance The UAE and Saudi Arabia are Carving Out their Own Place in the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence

by Yasmine El-Geressi Artificial Intelligence (AI) is going to be a big game changer in the global economy. Global spending on AI is expected to hit 35.8$ billion this year, up 44 percent over last year. The US and China are

investing heavily in research and development, while countries like the UK are working towards becoming leaders in more niche areas of AI. Other counter like South Korea, France, Germany and others are also strongly increasing their AI investments. Given this surging interest across the global landscape,

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The UAE, Arab world's secondlargest economy, is projected to benefit the most in the region from AI adoption. The technology is expected to contribute up to 14 per cent to the country’s gross domestic product – equivalent to Dh352.5 billion – by 2030.

governments and businesses across the Middle East, and particularly countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are beginning to realise the shift globally towards AI and advanced technologies and are also pursuing strategies to carve out their own place in the advancement of AI. The magnitude of the impact expected in these two economies is unsurprising given their relative investment in AI technology compared to the rest of the Middle Eastern region both countries place within the top 50 countries in the world on the Global Innovation Index 20173 in terms of their ability to innovate and the outputs of their innovation.

The UAE, Arab world's second-largest economy, is projected to benefit the most in the region from AI adoption. The technology is expected to contribute up to 14 per cent to the country’s gross domestic product – equivalent to Dh352.5 billion – by 2030, representing roughly two percent of the global total, according to a report by consultancy PwC. The UAE will be followed by Saudi Arabia, where AI is forecast to add 12.4 per cent to GDP. That means a diversification from oil and gas to an economy of innovation with manufacturing, mining and public service industries to see the most benefit.

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According to the consultancy KPMG, 70 percent of UAE’s chief executives are disrupting their industries by making significant technological advances in core operations in 2019, compared with 63 percent globally.

UAE firms are adopting new technologies – such as artificial intelligence and automation – to ensure they beat global competitors, according the KMPG’s 2019 CEO outlook report published this week. Nearly three-fourths of the UAE businesses are trying new AI and automating processes in their businesses while only 31 per cent companies are doing it globally.

Research by Microsoft also found that business leaders across the UAE are highly advanced in terms of their implementation of AI. 53.3 percent indicated that they want to use AI to improve decision making within the next year as opposed to 33.7 percent internationally, and 84 percent think AI is going to have a positive impact on their leadership, which was the highest number in the survey.

The nation’s efforts are mainly concentrated in the city of Dubai, which is already home to a number of futuristic projects, including plans to create a “Mars science city” and build a real life hyperloop, programs for renewable energy and electric vehicles, and tests for flying taxis and even flying jetpacks. Dubai even has an accelerator program aimed at expediting the creation of these various futuristic technologies. Earlier this year, the city hosted the world’s first ever AI summit.

According to His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE, and Ruler of Dubai, “AI is the next major revolution of our time and the UAE’s goal is to become one of the most advanced countries in this regard.”

To compete for a position on the AI podium, the

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UAE launched its official strategy for AI in 2017, more recently appointing a state minister for artificial intelligence, His Excellency Omar bin Sultan Al Olama.

The ministry of intelligence, the first of its kind in the world, aims is to improve government performance by investing in the latest AI technologies and applying them in various sectors. Earlier this year the ministry launched a strategy aimed at positioning the UAE as a global leader in AI by 2031.

A number of vital sectors will witness an immediate positive impact from applying AI technologies. Over four years ago, Alef Education was launched and has since managed to get its artificial intelligence education platform into dozens of schools in Abu Dhabi, as well as Al Ain, another city in the Emirates, creating a new learning experience for thousands of students.

The platform focuses on core subjects such as maths, English and science and helps students by using AI to tailor the curriculum to individual needs. It gives students, teachers and parents real-time feedback and adjusts accordingly. Alef Education plans to expand into more countries, adapting the program to suit each market. Its lofty vision is to affect the lives of a billion people over the next 10 years.

There are many innovations also taking place in the healthcare industry, which is set to grow exponentially, with demand for world-class medical service currently outpacing supply. According to Alpen Capital, the UAE healthcare market is expected to grow 12.7 percent, to nearly US20$BN (AED 71.56BN) by 2020.

The UAE leads in the top 20 countries in the world with US1,200$ per capita spend on healthcare (AED 4,400).

Alef Education has managed to get its artificial intelligence education platform into dozens of schools in Abu Dhabi, as well as Al Ain, another city in the Emirates, creating a new learning experience for thousands of students.

In line with the UAE’s artificial intelligence strategy, the Dubai Health Authority (DHA) introduced Dubai Health Strategy 2021, which focuses on technology and automation using AI and robotics. From augmented reality (AR) platforms that allow doctors to ‘teleport’ between clinics, to concierge packages providing bespoke medical services, 3D printing prosthetic limbs and robot pharmacists, the UAE is seeking to take its healthcare to the cutting edge and secure its positon as the global leader in health technology.

The government is also encouraging the hospitality sector to adopt an artificial intelligence program, known as the Window Vision system, that measures the amount of food that is discarded and puts a monetary value on it in an effort to save one million meals in one year.

The Minister of Climate Change and Environment, Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi, said that by making the promise, the country was cementing its commitment to meet the United Nations target of cutting food losses and waste by 50 per cent by the year 2030.

Saudi Arabia is also not standing idle. The Kingdom is undertaking the largest and most ambitious economic reform and transformation program in its history. A broad range of initiatives are being rolled out to realize the objectives of Vision 2030. Digitization and artificial intelligence (AI) are key enablers of these wide-ranging reforms. According to PwC, AI will contribute 135.2$ billion to the Saudi Arabian economy by 2030. The Kingdom also recently granted citizenship to an AIpowered robot named Sophia.

The country was the biggest backer of SoftBank’s 100$ billion Vision Fund — which invested solely in tech ventures — and has a raft of what it calls “gigaprojects” in the works. Chief among these is the proposed 500$ billion futuristic mega-city 33 times the size of New York City the Kingdom building from scratch., announced in 2017, which — if completed to plan — will be inhabited by more robots than people.

Born from the ‘Saudi Vision 2030’, a plan to reduce the state’s dependence on oil, NEOM is set to become one of the world’s first smart cities. Their aim is to be an economic, scientific and technological capital, attracting the world’s greatest pioneers, thinkers and doers, to push the boundaries of innovation.

The mega-city will be a special economic zone.

NEOM’s founders claim that the city will be so advanced that robots will outnumber humans. One

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look at their advisory board will tell you that they’re no stranger to tech. Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is a consultant to NEOM. The Saudi billionaire owns stakes in Snapchat, Twitter and Apple. The country is also backing Lucid, by investing 1$ billion in Tesla’s rival autonomous carmaker, and their ties to Uber are stronger than ever: they have previously invested billions in the ride-sharing company. This all hints at a fully automated city of self-driving cars and passenger drones, given the accumulated resources and innovation of those organisations.

Neom is also supposed to draw on "cloud seeding" technology to make artificial clouds which will produce more rainfall than naturally possible in the desert. At night it will be is illuminated by a giant artificial moon.

King Salman issued a decree last month to establish the National Center for Artificial Intelligence and an organization called the National Data Management Office, which will be linked to the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority, which was set up in August to oversee the use of the tech in the country.

Minister of Communications and Information Technology Abdullah Al-Sawaha said that the establishment of the center was a clear indication of the Kingdom’s determination to develop its digital capabilities and build a future based on AI and

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According to statistics from Harvard Business Review, 46 percent of jobs in Saudi Arabia are susceptible to automation, which will require government policies aimed at increasing human capital to counter the risk of AI-related job losses. innovation. Al-Sawaha said that AI would enhance productivity, boost decision-making processes across all sectors, render services provided to Saudi citizens more innovative, and open new horizons to stimulate entrepreneurship and support young people. However, there are also risks that these technologies could lead to high levels of structural unemployment among citizens.

According to statistics from Harvard Business Review, 46 percent of jobs in Saudi Arabia are susceptible to automation, which will require government policies aimed at increasing human capital to counter the risk of AI-related job losses.

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by Christi Carras In the months leading up to its much-anticipated release, Warner Bros.’ villainous character study “Joker” has proved — perhaps, a little too successfully — that it is no joke.

From its Oscar-buzzy debut at the Venice Film Festival in August to recent concerns surrounding moviegoers’ safety on opening weekend, Hollywood, law enforcement and the public have taken “Joker” nothing but seriously.

The film, directed by Todd Phillips and starring Joaquin Phoenix has recently opened on Friday October 4, it has nevertheless stirred quite the drama in the lead uo to its opening weekend.

A SUPERVILLAIN WOWS CRITICS AND AUDIENCES Comic-book adaptations are not typical awards season fare, but the character-driven “Joker” is not a typical comic-book adaptation. The film practically aced the preliminary awards season test, playing to

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Joaquin Phoenix attends the premiere of Warner Bros Pictures "Joker" on September 2019 ,28 in Hollywood, California.

(Getty)

Though Warner Bros. tried to allay anxieties leading up to the film’s release, the Los Angeles Police Department, later, essentially validated them by promising to increase its “visibility” around theaters showing the movie on opening weekend.

‘Joker’ Has Finally Arrived Here’s a Guide to All the Drama it Has Stirred Up

FAMILIES OF AURORA SHOOTING VICTIMS PEN A LETTER TO WARNER BROS. Shortly after its successful festival outings, “Joker” was forced to confront a tragic period in the franchise’s past. Late last month, family members of victims of the 2012 mass shooting at an Aurora, Colorado movie theater reached out to Warner Bros. to express fears that a movie centering on a murderous man in clown makeup might lead to a repeat incident.

Loved ones of the victims, 12 of which died in a screening of Christopher Nolan’s “The Dark Knight Rises,” urged the studio to donate to gun-victim organizations and advocate for gun reform.

overwhelming acclaim from critics and audiences alike at top film festivals.

Despite ongoing concern in the industry that franchises are overcrowding the theatrical market, “Joker” had the last laugh, nabbing top prize with its debut at the Venice Film Festival.

In addition to scoring the Golden Lion — and a whopping eight-minute standing ovation — the drama also secured a spot at the Toronto International Film Festival, where it garnered more praise for Phoenix’s off-kilter performance.

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“When we learned that Warner Bros. was releasing a movie called ‘Joker’ that presents the character as a protagonist with a sympathetic origin story, it gave us pause,” read the letter, which was obtained by Variety.

“As anyone who has ever seen a comic book movie can tell you: with great power comes great responsibility.”

WARNER BROS. DEFENDS THE FILM The studio provided a statement to The Times in response to the letter, which was addressed to its new CEO, Ann Sarnoff, the day the note went public. The company offered its condolences to the families and victims of mass shootings and pointed out its history of donating to victims of violence, as well as its support for bipartisan legislation to prevent more loss.

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“At the same time, Warner Bros. believes that one of the functions of storytelling is to provoke difficult conversations around complex issues,” the statement continued. “Make no mistake: neither the fictional character Joker, nor the film, is an endorsement of realworld violence of any kind. It is not the intention of the film, the filmmakers or the studio to hold this character up as a hero.”

LAPD PLEDGES TO MONITOR ‘JOKER’ SCREENINGS Though Warner Bros. tried to allay anxieties leading up to the film’s release, the Los Angeles Police Department, later, essentially validated them by promising to increase its “visibility” around theaters showing the movie on opening weekend.

“The Los Angeles Police Department is aware of public concerns and the historical significance associated with the premiere of ‘Joker,’” the LAPD said in a statement last week. “While there are no credible threats in the Los Angeles area, the department will maintain high visibility around theaters when it opens.”

The LAPD’s announcement came after both the FBI and the U.S. Army issued internal warnings about possible threats related to the movie. One of the warnings from the U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Command field office at Ft. Sill, Okla., which went public after a memo circulated online, flagged a “credible potential mass shooting” at an unknown movie theater during “Joker’s” Friday release.

Amid building controversy surrounding its fall tent pole, Warner Bros. rescinded access for reporters planning to cover “Joker’s” L.A. premiere last week, alerting them that the cast and creatives would not stop for interviews on the red carpet.

WARNER BROS. BANS PRESS INTERVIEWS AT ‘JOKER’ PREMIERE Amid building controversy surrounding its fall tent pole, Warner Bros. rescinded access for reporters planning to cover “Joker’s” L.A. premiere last week, alerting them that the cast and creatives would not stop for interviews on the red carpet.

“A lot has been said about ‘Joker,’ and we just feel it’s time for people to see the film,” a Warner Bros. spokesperson confirmed to The Times the day before the event.

Journalists were still allowed inside the screening and after-party following the press-proofed carpet.

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Glenn Fleshler, Josh Pais, Brett Cullen, Frances Conroy, Joaquin Phoenix, Zazie Beetz, Leigh Gill and Marc Maron attend the premiere of Warner Bros Pictures "Joker" on September ,28 2019 in Hollywood, California. (Getty)

ALAMO DRAFTHOUSE CAUTIONS PARENTS ABOUT ‘OVERALL BAD VIBES’ Though Alamo Drafthouse hasn’t followed suit with a dress code for ticket buyers, the company did take to social media to remind people of “Joker’s” R rating. A Facebook post discouraged parents from bringing their children to the film, assuring them there would be “no Batman” to save the day.

“Parental warning (this is not a joke),” the PSA read.

“Joker is Rated R and for good reason. There’s lots of very, very rough language, brutal violence, and overall bad vibes … It’s a gritty, dark, and realistic Taxi Driver-esque depiction of one man’s descent into madness. It’s not for kids, and they won’t like it, anyway.”

PHOENIX GETS (FAKE?) AMBUSHED BY AN ‘EMBARRASSING’ OUTTAKE Meanwhile, it was still business as somewhat usual for Phoenix, who carried out at least one press tour duty by appearing on “Jimmy Kimmel Live” days before the premiere. But his relatively light conversation with the late-night host turned awkward when Kimmel played a supposedly never-before-seen outtake of the actor unleashing a nasty, expletive-ridden rant on “Joker” cinematographer Lawrence Sher.

THEATERS CRACK DOWN ON COSPLAY Exhibitors also pledged to do their part to create safe spaces for the public to view the film by prohibiting moviegoers from attending screenings dressed as the film’s titular villain. AMC Theatres bans face paint, masks and toy weapons, while Landmark Theatres simply won’t allow costumes, period.

One theater chain known for welcoming costumed fans, Alamo Drafthouse Cinema, said it does not plan to make an exception for “Joker,” but noted that “guests in costume are always subject to search at the discretion of theater staff at any time, and may be asked to leave for any reason.”

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“The constant whispering, just shut the … up, dude,” Phoenix tells Sher in the viral clip. “I’m trying to, like, find something real.”

Later in the outtake, the star accuses Sher of starting a rumor comparing Phoenix to Cher and “making fun” of him for being a “diva.” When the video — provided by the director — ended, a visibly stunned Phoenix attempted to explain his behavior, which was “supposed to be private.”

“This is so embarrassing,” he told Kimmel. “Look, sometimes movies get intense because you’re a lot of people in a small space, and you’re trying to find something, so it can feel intense, but … I’m a little embarrassed. I’m sorry about that.”

By mid-afternoon Wednesday, the “Kimmel” clip had amassed more than a million views on YouTube, and a rep for Phoenix told media outlets the whole segment was a charade — the outtake was a “joke,” as was Phoenix’s feigned real-time reaction.

A joker, indeed.

A Weekly Political News Magazine

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Issue 1768- October - 04/10/2019

Greta Thunberg: The Teen ‘Eco-Warrior’ Who’s Inspired Worldwide Strikes www.majalla.com

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Comfort food without the guilt Simple swaps like whole grains instead of white rice maintain flavor while boosting health benefits.

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But digging into comfort foods all winter -- like a savory beef stew, spicy spaghetti and meatballs, macaroni and cheese, fluffy pancakes, gooey pizza, or buttery mashed potatoes -comes with health risks. pancakes, gooey pizza, or buttery mashed potatoes -- comes with health risks.

COMFORT FOOD CONSEQUENCES

by Harvard Health Letter There's nothing quite like coming in from the cold and sitting down to a hot, hearty meal.

The icy temperatures seem to make us yearn for foods that will warm us up inside, stick to our bones, and soothe the soul. "We are warm-bodied creatures, and as the weather cools we actually crave more calories so we can stay warm," explains Sandra Allonen, a registered dietitian with Harvard-affiliated Beth Israel Deaconess Hospital.

But digging into comfort foods all winter -- like a savory beef stew, spicy spaghetti and meatballs, macaroni and cheese, fluffy

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The "stick to your bones" ingredient in comfort foods is typically saturated fat (from red meat, heavy cream, butter, cheese, and coconut products). Any kind of fat takes longer to digest and makes you feel fuller, but just 1 gram of fat has nine calories, about twice the calories in carbohydrates or protein, so fat-laden foods make it easy to shovel in more calories than you need.

Eating too much saturated fat, in particular, increases your blood levels of "bad" LDL cholesterol and raises your risk for heart disease.

Other typical comfort food ingredients are refined carbohydrates (such as those found in white flour, noodles, or white rice) and -of course -- sugar. These are easily digested and can rapidly elevate your blood sugar.

Eating too much sugar and refined carbs is associated with weight gain, inflammation, and diabetes.

Potatoes, although in the vegetable family, are another comfort food staple. They are rich in carbohydrates and can raise your blood sugar in a way similar to sugar. Eat them only in moderation.

Salt is another common component of comfort food. While we need a certain amount of the sodium in salt for health, consuming too much makes us retain fluid and gain weight,

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and in some people it leads to high blood pressure. Too much salt can also negate the effects of blood pressure medications.

SHOULD YOU BAN COMFORT FOODS? Despite all of the unhealthy ingredients, you don't have to banish comfort foods from your diet. That could lead to a feeling of deprivation, which can trigger an eating binge.

Instead, place a strict limit on how often you eat your comfort food favorites and the portion size when you do have them. "A little indulgence once in a while won't hurt you," Allonen says. "The problem is indulging every day."

That means it's probably okay if you occasionally enjoy a very small portion of lasagna, a dab of mashed potatoes, or single slice of pizza. But don't make those foods part of your regular meal rotation.

Dietary guidelines recommend limiting saturated fat to no more than %10 of your daily calories. The American Heart Association recommends a daily salt intake of no more than 2,300 milligrams (mg), and an ideal target of less than 1,500 mg (especially if you have high blood pressure or heart disease).

Despite all of the unhealthy ingredients, you don't have to banish comfort foods from your diet. That could lead to a feeling of deprivation, which can trigger an eating binge.

Rethinking recipes If a strict limit on comfort food isn't appealing, take heart: there are plenty of ways to make them healthier. "You don't have to reinvent them. Just revise them by swapping out some of the ingredients," Allonen suggests.

Generally speaking, you can • ditch full-fat dairy products like cream and butter, and instead use nonfat Greek yogurt, skim milk, low-fat sour cream or cheeses, or vegan cheese (made from tofu or nuts) • ditch red meat in favor of poultry, fish, or legumes (beans or lentils) • ditch sugar or syrup and use fruit (berries, applesauce, or citrus) or sweet vegetables

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such as carrots or corn • ditch white rice and use whole grains like brown rice, oats, barley, quinoa, or teff • ditch white flour and use whole-grain flours (such as whole wheat, buckwheat, or cornmeal) or even grated cauliflower to make pizza dough • ditch refined-grain noodles and use noodles made of whole wheat, black beans, lentils, or zucchini • ditch salt and use herbs and spices, such as oregano, rosemary, basil, thyme, chili powder, cloves, cumin, curry powder, nutmeg, or cinnamon • ditch mashed potatoes and try mashed

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cauliflower.

REMAKING MENUS "Think of oatmeal pancakes with berry compote on top," Allonen says. "Or mac-andcheese made from whole-wheat pasta, lowfat cheese, and skim milk. Or shepherd's pie with ground turkey and mashed cauliflower instead of mashed potatoes."

Other ideas: vegetarian chili, lasagna with tofu "ricotta," or black bean tacos in soft whole-wheat tortillas. "Get creative," Allonen says, "and you'll find you can enjoy all of your favorites.

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Greta Thunberg: The Teen ‘Eco-Warrior’ Who’s Inspired Worldwide Strikes Majalla – London Swedish teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg is the favorite to win the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, after she rose to lead a millions-strong youth movement demanding action on global warming.

The -16year-old is tipped to become the youngest ever recipient of the award, which will be announced next week and has previously been won by major figures such as Nelson Mandela, Jimmy Carter and Mikhail Gorbachev.

Thunberg was born in Sweden to her mother Malenda Ernman, an opera singer who represented Sweden in the 2009 Eurovision Song Contest, and father Svante Thunberg, an actor. Thunberg herself first learnt about global warming at the age of 8, when she her class was shown documentaries about climate change at school. At school she was always the one to be sat quietly at the back of the classroom, but she remembers being more affected than the other student She launched the "Fridays For Future" movement — or School Strike for Climate (as it says in Swedish on her sign) — in 2018, encouraging students to skip school to demand action on climate change from their governments. In November, when she was

a ninth grader, Thunberg staged a strike for two weeks outside the Swedish parliament, demanding that the government cut emissions by %15 a year. More than 17,000 students in 24 countries took part in Friday school strikes. Thunberg then began speaking at high-profile events across Europe, including U.N. climate talks in Poland.

highlighted her Asperger’s diagnosis four years ago and suggested she is being manipulated by her parents. "Being different is a gift," she told the BBC, "It makes me see things from outside the box. I don't easily fall for lies, I can see through things. If I would've been like everyone else, I wouldn't have started this school strike for instance."

In the 12 months since, she has become one of the world’s most talked-about people.

On August 2019 ,14, Thunberg set sail from Britain for the United States to take part in a U.N. climate summit. Meanwhile, the total number of climate strikers reached 3.6 million people across 169 countries.

Thunberg delivered a blistering speech to leaders at the U.N. summit, “You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words,” she said.

“And yet I’m one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction. And all you can talk about is money and fairytales of eternal economic growth. How dare you.”

Donald Trump this week doubled down on his criticism of outspoken climate activist by retweeting one of his supporters who branded the teen an actress. Trump's retweet came after he had earlier mocked the Swede following her tearful appearance at the United Nations Climate Summit by calling her a "very happy young girl". She responded by updating her Twitter bio to read: "A very happy young girl looking forward to a bright and wonderful future."

Since being thrust into the global limelight, Thunberg’s climate activism has attracted scorn as well as praise. Some right-wing critics have, with little evidence, denounced her as a liar or a hypocrite. Others have

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Thunberg has repeatedly hit back at her critics, denying she is paid for her activism or is being “used” by anyone. Earlier this year she wrote on Facebook to say “there is no one ‘behind’ me except for myself. My parents were as far from climate activists as possible before I made them aware of the situation”. In August, she hit back at “hate and conspiracy campaigns” after by conservative Australian commentator Andrew Bolt described her as a “deeply disturbed messiah”.