A New Regional Order in the Middle East

Decision to Withdraw from Syria Sparks Debate Among Republicans

A Weekly Political News Magazine

How China Sees the Hong Kong Crisis

A Weekly Political News Magazine

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Issue 1769- October - 11/10/2019

Abbey Road at 50

Issue 1769- October - 11/10/2019

www.majalla.com

A New Regional Order in the Middle East www.majalla.com

Editorial The last year or so has been an interesting time for the region, particularly in the Gulf. For the past year, the regional cold war contested between Saudi Arabia and Iran seems to be steering ever closer to an armed conflict, a scenario both sides would want to avoid given the destabilizing effect it could have on the region as a whole and the fact that it would likely involve on ground presence from world superpowers namely the US and Russia. Ever since the 1980s, US foreign policy has operated under the Carter doctrine which insisted that the US had the duty to protect its allies in the Gulf as to protect its own interests in the region. This week’s cover story by Dennis Ross is critical of President Donald Trump’s attitude towards the region, as he thinks that the president has abandoned the Carter doctrine a move which has only emboldened Tehran. As such, the writer is not surprised by the regime’s recent attacks and proxy attacks within the region since the Trump administration has so far done nothing but exert economic pressure on Iran.

President Trump’s decision to withdraw from northern Syria has had an instantaneous consequence as the Turkish military quickly started Operation Spring of Peace which Erdogan has said was to target PKK/YPG forces. Thus far, many civilians have been caught under Turkey’s military operation, and the move has caused widespread condemnation from the international community. Joseph Braude writes a brief report on the reaction from Republican spheres over the president’s decision, as some have criticized it while others have been much more supportive of it.

This past month has seen the 50th anniversary of the Beatles’ iconic album Abbey Road. As this served as the last recorded album released by the group, many fans around the world have marked this half-centennial occasion by reflecting on and celebrating their favorite songs from the LP. Ali El Shamy writes on the disputes and in-fighting between the Beatles as they were recording their LP and how the album served as their final hurrah as a group.

We invite you to read these articles and more on our website eng.majalla.com. As always, we welcome and value our reader’s feedback and we invite you to take the opportunity to leave your comments on our website.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

16 How Japan Could Go Nuclear

Issue 1769- October - 11/10/2019

24 How China Sees the Hong Kong Crisis

20 Putin Welcomes Stalin Back to the Pantheon

08 Johnson Appears to Make Progress in EU Negotiations

09 Bridge Collapse Traps Vehicles in China, Kil ing 3 People

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Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte: The Stabilizer of an Unbalanced Government 3

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30 Preventing Seasonal Maladies

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A woman takes a photo in Ohori Park, Fukuoka, Japan, October 2019 ,11. REUTERS/Peter Cziborra PRC/ Fukuoka, , Japan (Reuters Photos)

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People protest over a fuel price hike ordered by the government to secure an IMF loan in Quito, Ecuador on October 2019 ,10. (Getty) 6

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eekly news possible deal.”

Britain is due to leave the -28nation bloc on Oct. 31, and attempts to find a deal have foundered over plans for the border between EU member Ireland and the U.K.’s Northern Ireland.

The currently all-but-invisible border underpins both the regional economy and Northern Ireland’s peace process.

Meanwhile, Brexit Secretary Stephan Barclay met with the EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels and both sides described the meeting as “constructive”. All eyes will be on next week’s EU summit which is seen as a last chance where both sides can come up with a deal before the October 31 deadline.

Turkey Starts Operation Spring of Peace in Northern Syria, prompting worldwide Condemnation

Turkey launched airstrikes, fired artillery and began a ground offensive against Kurdish fighters in northern Syria on Wednesday after U.S. troops pulled back from the area, paving the way for an assault on forces that have long been allied with the United States.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the start of the campaign, which followed the abrupt decision Sunday by U.S. President Donald Trump to essentially abandon the Syrian Kurdish fighters, leaving them vulnerable to a Turkish offensive that was widely condemned around the world.

The decision was a major shift in U.S. policy and drew oppositions from all sides at home. It also marked a stark change in rhetoric by Trump, who during a press conference in New York last year vowed to stand by the Kurds, who have been America›s only allies in Syria fighting the Islamic State group.

Turkish forces pushed deeper into northeastern Syria on Friday, the third day of Ankara›s offensive against U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish fighters, as casualties mounted, international criticism of the campaign intensified and thousands of civilians fled the violence.

Turkey said it captured more Kurdish-held villages in the border region, while a camp for displaced residents about 12 kilometers from the frontier was evacuated after artillery shells landed nearby amid intense clashes. Aid agencies have warned of a humanitarian crisis, with nearly a half-million

people at risk near the border.

The move attracted worldwide condemnation, as the EU, the UK, France, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt all criticized Turkey for its destabilizing move. For its part, the US Pentagon has called on Turkey to stop its military operation as it risks the progress of the fight against ISIS.

Johnson Appears to Make Progress in EU Negotiations

The leaders of Britain and Ireland said Thursday they had spotted a “pathway” to an elusive Brexit deal, keeping hopes of a breakthrough alive just three weeks before the U.K.’s deadline to leave the European Union.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Irish leader Leo Varadkar provided a status update on the issue after a private lunch meeting in northwest England that lasted for several hours.

“Both continue to believe that a deal is in everybody’s interest,” they said in a joint statement.

“They agreed that they could see a pathway to a

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Extinction Rebellion in UK Blocs Roads to Protest Lack of Government Action towards Climate Change Hundreds of climate change activists camped out in central London on Tuesday during the ongoing world protests by the Extinction Rebellion movement to demand more urgent actions to counter global warming.

Determined activists glued themselves to the British government›s Department of Transport building as police working to keep streets clear appealed to protesters to move to Trafalgar Square.

Cities in Australia, elsewhere in Europe and other parts of the world also had climate change protests during the week.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson appealed Monday to the protesters to stop blocking London›s streets. He called the activists «uncooperative crusties» who should abandon their «hemp-smelling bivouacs.»

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister’s father has joined climate protesters in London, after his son urged

the demonstrators to pack up their «hemp-smelling» tents and leave.

Stanley Johnson told Extinction Rebellion demonstrators that they had «exactly the right things in mind» with their demand to slash carbon emissions to zero. He also said the eco-movement was «tremendously important. ... It is absolutely clear to me that we have been moving far too slowly on the climate change issue.»

More than 500 people have been arrested in London since protesters began blocking roads and bridges on Monday, part of a global wave of protests that have also hit New York, Paris, Berlin and Madrid.

Boris Johnson called the protesters «uncooperative crusties» who should abandon their «hemp-smelling bivouacs.»

Stanley Johnson said: «I wear that badge with pride.»

Stabbing Attack Occurs in Manchester Shopping Center, Police Arrest Man on Suspicion of Terrorism A man held in connection with a series of stabbings that injured several people at a shopping center in northwestern England was arrested for a suspected terrorist act Friday, police said.

Police in the city of Manchester said a man in his 40s who was originally detained on assault charges was arrested on a charge of «the commission, preparation and instigation of an act of terrorism.»

The suspect allegedly entered the Arndale shopping center in central Manchester at 11:15 a.m. Friday armed with a large knife, police said. Two unarmed police officers confronted them, but he chased them as they called for urgent assistance.

Greater Manchester Police Assistant Chief Constable Russ Jackson said authorities do not know the motive behind the attack.

«It appears random, is certainly brutal and of course, extremely frightening for anyone who witnessed it,»

Jackson said.

Counterterror police were leading an investigation Friday into a stabbing incident that injured four people at a shopping center in northwestern England, as police keep an open mind on the motive.

Police initially reported five people injured but later reduced the number. Two women and a man were hospitalized. Paramedics assessed an injured woman who wasn›t stabbed and didn›t go to the hospital.

Rudi Giuliani Associates Arrested in Connection to Ukraine Probe

Donald Trump›s dealings with Ukraine as well as Giuliani›s relationships in the former Soviet republic. The indictment was made public Thursday following the arrest of two Florida businessmen with ties to Giuliani. It alleges that Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman leveraged a flurry of GOP political donations in a campaign to force Yovanovitch›s removal, an effort prosecutors say was aided by laundered foreign money. Parnas and Fruman›s outsized political giving allowed the two relatively unknown entrepreneurs to quickly win access to the highest levels of the Republican Party — including face-to-face meetings with Trump at the White House and Mar-a-Lago.

On May 2018 ,9, Parnas posted a photo of himself and his business partner David Correia with Sessions in his Capitol Hill office, with the caption «Hard at work !!» Later that same day, Sessions sent a letter to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo seeking Yovanovitch›s dismissal because he had «notice of concrete evidence» that she had «spoken privately and repeatedly about her disdain for the current Administration.»

Campaign finance records show Parnas and Fruman later contributed 2,700$ apiece to Session›s campaign, the maximum allowed individual contribution.

Sessions said Thursday that he will vigorously defend himself against any allegations of wrongdoing.

Bridge Collapse Traps Vehicles in China, Killing 3 People Businessmen with ties to Rudy Giuliani lobbied a U.S. congressman in 2018 for help ousting the American ambassador to Ukraine around the same time they committed to raising money for the lawmaker.

An indictment unsealed Thursday identified the lawmaker only as «Congressman 1.» But the donations described in the indictment match campaign finance reports for former Rep. Pete Sessions, a Texas Republican who lost his reelection bid in November 2018.

Sessions, 64, has denied wrongdoing. But the federal indictment alleges «Congressman 1» was part of what prosecutors described as a coordinated effort to remove Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch at the behest of an unnamed Ukrainian official.

Sessions, who has been weighing a political comeback, now finds himself entangled in the impeachment investigation centered on President

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Three people have been killed and two injured in the collapse of bridge in eastern China.

An overloaded truck reportedly caused the bridge in Jiangsu province to buckle on Thursday night.

State broadcaster CCTV said the truck was carrying 187 tons of goods on a span where the maximum allowed load is 65 tons. CCTV said the collapsed overpass trapped three cars under it, killing the three people inside them. China this year has had serious industrial and transportation accidents despite efforts to boost safety. Accidents have included chemical plant explosions and the loss of dozens of firefighters in mountain blazes.

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A New Regional Order in the Middle East How the Gulf Crisis is Rewriting the Rules that Governed Regional Affairs 10

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It is not only that Iran feels emboldened in the region; it feels it has a license to act against its neighbors and need not worry that American response will respond to its provocations. It no longer respects an American umbrella of deterrence over its friends in the area. uncertainty and the potential for miscalculation are becoming even greater as the perception grows of the Trump Administration’s reluctance to maintain long-standing American stakes in the security of region.

A destroyed installation in Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq oil processing plant is pictured on September 2019 ,20. (Getty)

by Dennis Ross It feels like we are entering unchartered waters in the Middle East. If there were rules or norms that seemed to limit what actions state would take against their neighbors, those seem to be gone. True, Iran’s use of non-state proxy militias had already fuzzed the boundaries of the kind of threats that could provoke responses both regionally and internationally because they were so dangerous. At this point, especially after the attack on Abqaiq, it is not clear what kind of attacks will produce very strong responses. That

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Consider the signal President Trump sent when in June he declared that since we did not get our oil from the Gulf, it was up to those who do— and not the United States--to assume principal responsibility for safeguarding the flow of petrochemicals from the region. In doing so, he reversed the Carter Doctrine declared in January 1980, in which President Jimmy Carter announced that the US had a vital national security interest in the Gulf and would act to protect our interests and partners in the region. Every president since that time embraced that doctrine—but clearly President Trump does not. Together with his avoidance of military—overt or covert—responses to Iran’s shooting down of an American drone and its launching an attack against critical Saudi oil facilities, he is making clear that our security interests are much more limited. Small wonder that Iran feels emboldened.

It is not only that Iran feels emboldened in the region; it feels it has a license to act against its neighbors and need not worry that American response will respond to its provocations. It no longer respects an American umbrella

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of deterrence over its friends in the area.

Moreover, given the president’s desire to do a deal, Iran’s leaders increasingly believe that their counter-pressure against Trump maximum “economic” pressure will get him to back off. Indeed, his reported readiness to agree to French President Macron’s four points—points that have President Trump agreeing to remove not only the sanctions re-imposed at the time he withdrew from the JCPOA, but to sanctions adopted in 2017, is one indicator of Trump’s readiness to ease the tensions and relax the financial pressure on Iran. Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, foreshadowed Iran’s confidence and looming steps when he stated in May that the US was trying to use economic pressure to weaken the Islamic Republic in order to have it return to the negotiating table and concede more. He not only declared this would fail, he said the Islamic Republic would exert its own “leverage”—and since that time we have seen it covertly attack oil tankers on two separate occasions, have its proxy militias in Iraq fire on bases north of Baghdad where US forces are located, have the Houthis use drones to attack pumping stations and civilian airports in Saudi Arabia, ready a drone attack into Israel that the Israelis pre-empted, and, of course, conduct the drone and cruise missile attack against a Saudi oil facility that accounts for %5.5 of the world’s oil supply.

In speaking to the annual meeting of the IRGC leadership on October 2, the Supreme Leader was supremely confident, declaring that the American “maximum pressures” campaign was ineffective, had failed to bring Iran to its knees and would never be able to do so. Not only could Iran handle the pressure, but it was the US that was facing problems, so much so that America’s policies were inflicting “problems” on itself. If nothing else, Iran’s “active measures” as one Iranian observer describes them are affecting the US—and the Iranian decision to turn down Macron’s points indicates that the Supreme

Leader feels no particular need to defuse tensions now.

According to French officials, Rouhani accepted the content of the four points—requiring Iran to come back into compliance with the JCPOA, accept talking about a long-term framework on the nuclear issue, and agree to avoid conflict in the area in return for getting the sanctions dating from 2017 lifted and being able to sell its oil and repatriate the revenue with no restrictions.

These points require little of the Iranians: they have said they would come back into compliance with the JCPOA’s limits if the sanctions were

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US President Donald Trump (L) and French President Emmanuel Macron give a joint press conference in Biarritz, south-west France on August 2019 ,26, on the third day of the annual G7 Summit. (Getty)

The more interesting point is that the Iranians would not agree to the meeting Macron was brokering—which is what President Trump wanted— because Rouhani was insisting that Trump lift the sanctions in advance of the meeting and the president only wanted to do it afterwards. understanding was not finalized, a deal will probably be worked out soon. It is not hard to contrive parallel acceptance and implementation.

Perhaps, there were other reasons—either Trump was not truly ready for such an understanding or maybe Khamenei was not ready to take the pressure off of the Administration yet. The danger here is that the Iranians may yet overplay their hand and provoke Trump at a time when he is facing domestic internal pressures as well.

lifted; they speak of reducing regional tensions; and they say that ratifying the Additional Protocol is part of the longer-term framework for the nuclear question—none of these require any real concessions are their part and in return the sanctions are lifted. The more interesting point is that the Iranians would not agree to the meeting Macron was brokering—which is what President Trump wanted—because Rouhani was insisting that Trump lift the sanctions in advance of the meeting and the president only wanted to do it afterwards.

If that is the real reason that the four-point

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It is in everyone’s interest to see tensions truly defused. But it is also necessary that the Iranians understand that the current uncertainties in the region can also be a danger for them; that they are not as strong as they may think they are and that rather than continuing to try to ratchet up pressures, it is also in their interest to tone them down. The Supreme Leader may think that sanctions will ultimately make Iran more self-sufficient—an objective he has consistently emphasized over the last twenty years. The truth is that Iran’s economic hardships only deepen the disaffection within the country and hold it back.

What makes the current situation so dangerous is it takes just misstep for there to be a wider conflict in the region—and the Iranians would not be immune to consequences of such a conflict.

Better to be wise now and not sorry later.

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Decision to Withdraw from Syria Sparks Debate Among Republicans Senior GOP Officeholders Uncharacteristically Condemned Trump’s Move, Urging him to Reconsider

by Joseph Braude President Donald Trump surprised friends and adversaries alike this week by announcing that the U.S. would be withdrawing the roughly 2,000 troops deployed in northeastern Syria as part of

the counter-ISIS campaign. While Democratic lawmakers condemned the initiative as a matter of course, an uncharacteristically sharp debate roiled Republican circles as many senior GOP officeholders condemned the move and urged the President to reconsider.

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AN ONGOING SAGA This week’s move advances a drama dating back to December 2018, when President Trump first announced over Twitter that the U.S. would be withdrawing its positions from Syria.

Initial reports, indicating a timetable of 30 days, prompted the resignation of Secretary of Defense James Mattis, one of the most popular members of the administration. The Mattis departure, combined with subsequent pushback from U.S. allies, the Department of Defense, and Republican Senators, persuaded the President to decelerate the transition.

That is, until Monday. On October 7, the President announced, again via Twitter, “It is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home. WE WILL FIGHT WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN.” When reports emerged that Turkish forces had amassed along the border and were preparing a ground incursion into SDFheld territory, Trump added that “in no way have we Abandoned the Kurds, who are special people and wonderful fighters” and that “if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey.”

Donald Trump with Mark Milley, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, in the Cabinet Room on Monday. (AP)

CONSERVATIVE CRITICS Although normally united in defense of President Trump’s agenda, many prominent congressional Republicans moved to condemn the decision and urge the President to reconsider. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the most powerful Republican officeholder after Trump, said in a statement: "A precipitous withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria would only benefit Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime … American interests are best served by American leadership, not by retreat or withdrawal.”

Senator Lindsey Graham, who has developed a reputation for aggressively defending the President in the media, tweeted on October 7, “If press reports are accurate this is a disaster in the making.” He noted that the move “forces Kurds to align with Assad and Iran,” “destroys Turkey’s relationship with U.S. Congress,” and “will be a stain on America’s honor for abandoning the Kurds.” For his part, Senator Marco Rubio tweeted that “the Trump administration has made a grave mistake that will have implications

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Senator Lindsey Graham, who has developed a reputation for aggressively defending the President in the media, tweeted on October 7, “If press reports are accurate this is a disaster in the making.” far beyond Syria.”

Reactions in conservative media were similarly critical. Pat Robertson, an influential televangelist and founder of the Christian Broadcasting Network, said on October 7, “I believe [ …] the President of the United States is in danger of losing the mandate of heaven if he permits this to happen.” Likewise, the editorial board of National Review, a prominent conservative magazine, called the move “a serious mistake” and noted that “there is a cost to allowing allies to become cannon fodder. It deters future alliances, and local alliances are particularly important if America hopes to combat jihadists without large-scale troop deployments.”

BACKERS OF WITHDRAWAL On the opposite side of the ledger, defenders of the President’s decision were fewer but still notable.

Senator Paul, a committed anti-interventionist, declared, “I stand with [President Trump] today as he once again fulfills his promises to stop our endless wars and have a true America First foreign policy.” He later condemned the chorus of Republican critics of withdrawal as a “war caucus.”

Sounding a more legalistic note, Fox News anchor Laura Ingraham offered moderate pushback to the Republican critics of the President’s withdrawal plan, effectively implying the current military authorization was illegal: “Whether we're talking Syria or Somalia, we should not have our troops deployed in a war-time footing without a clear Congressional authorization.

Using the old 2001/18/9 resolution to cover today's actions is obscene.”

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How Japan Could Go Nuclear It Has the Smarts and the Resources, but Does Tokyo Have the Will?

by Mark Fitzpatrick In a speech on September 6, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, Stephen Biegun, warned that Japan might respond to the growing nuclear threat from North Korea by developing nuclear weapons of its own. Japan has long had the means to go nuclear, thanks to its sophisticated nuclear power industry. But since agreeing to a security treaty in 1951, Japan has relied on Washington's “extended deterrence”—the promise that any attack on Japan will trigger a retaliatory attack from the United States.

The Japanese government’s confidence in that commitment has fluctuated over the last half century, and Biegun is not the first U.S. official to fret that Tokyo will lose faith in it altogether.

On three occasions over the past 50 years, Japan weighed the merits and disadvantages of developing nuclear weapons. The first delicate moment came in the 1960s, after China began testing nuclear weapons. Then, during the 1990s after the Cold War, Japanese officials worried that Washington might feel less resolved in defending Japan from Moscow’s nuclear might.

Most recently, Japan faced a major new challenge to its west

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Japan is the only nation that has the ability to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium but has no nuclear weapons. treaty unfair and reportedly mused in private about canceling the treaty altogether. He has tolerated North Korean missile tests that threaten Japan. And during his election campaign, he suggested that it might even serve Japanese and South Korean interests if both nations developed nuclear weapons. There are still powerful historical, cultural, and institutional reasons for Japan to resist going nuclear, but Biegun is right to worry that the country could head in that direction—though it is the U.S. president, as much as North Korea, who may push Tokyo toward nuclear proliferation.

THE NUCLEAR TABOO

This picture shows the No. 3 reactor (R) at its Ikata nuclear power plant of Shikoku Electric Power in Ehime prefecture, about 700 kilometres (430 miles) southwest of Tokyo on August ,12 2016. (Getty)

after North Korea developed nuclear weapons in 2006. At each juncture, however, Japanese security strategists concluded that it made more sense to rely on the extended deterrence provided by the United States. In exchange, Japan presented itself to U.S. policymakers as a linchpin for peace and stability in Northeast Asia, a regional hub for the deployment of U.S. troops and military equipment (as it was during the Korean and Vietnam Wars), and a bulwark against China.

Today, the U.S. security guarantee looks less and less reliable. This summer, President Donald Trump repeatedly called the security

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As the only country to experience a nuclear bombing, Japan is a leading proponent of nonproliferation. Quietly, however, it pursues a strategy of “nuclear hedging,” preserving the capacity to develop nuclear weapons without intending to do so.

Officials occasionally reveal the existence of this policy. In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, for example, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, a prominent Liberal Democratic Party politician, explained that Japan couldn’t shut down its nuclear power plants because the nuclear fuel cycle— the industrial processes that turn uranium into electricity and recycle the waste—was necessary in order to maintain “technical deterrence.” Japan is the only nation that has the ability to enrich uranium and reprocess plutonium but has no nuclear weapons.

In theory, Japan could develop a small atomic arsenal in as little as a year or two. It would need to produce weapons-grade plutonium, a process that would most likely require repurposing civil reactors. It would also need to reengineer its advanced space launch rockets to deliver nuclear warheads. Japanese scientists are technically capable of both tasks and could accomplish them on a tight timetable if the government felt compelled to minimize concerns about safety, secrecy, reliability, and accuracy (and shirk its international obligations). A more thorough, careful process in keeping with Japan’s usual modus operandi would take three or four years. Scientists would face another hurdle in finding a place to test weapons in the crowded Japanese archipelago. The most recent known government study, conducted in 2006, concluded that Japan had the technical expertise and facilities to develop a small nuclear warhead but that doing so would take three to five years and cost over 2$ billion.

The biggest obstacles to a Japanese nuclear weapons program aren’t technical or logistic; they are political, legal, and cultural.

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Since 1972, following the return of Okinawa from the United States and the removal of nuclear weapons stationed there, Japan’s prime ministers have embraced “three non-nuclear principles” as a morally and politically binding norm: no manufacture, no possession, and no entry of nuclear weapons controlled by other nations (in practice, that third principle has been breached to allow nuclear-armed U.S. warships to make port calls). In addition, Japan’s championing of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, and other nonproliferation instruments reinforces the political constraints on going nuclear, as does the collective memory of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shows no sign of seeking to challenge this deeply rooted antipathy.

Opposition to nuclear weapons is particularly strong in the academic and scientific communities, including in the nuclear technology field. Combined with the robust International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring presence in Japan, this culture of ingrained hostility to nuclear weapons would make it nearly impossible for Japan to pursue a clandestine path to the bomb.

Japanese diplomats would also fret about the security costs of going nuclear. An indigenous nuclear program would be intensely provocative to China, sparking a further acceleration in Beijing’s buildup of nuclear and conventional weapons. Pursuing nuclear weapons would also increase the risk of a preemptive nuclear strike from North Korea and provoke South Korea to seek its own nuclear arsenal, inflaming regional tensions.

WEAPONS OF LAST RESORT The scientific establishment would likely comply with a directive to produce nuclear weapons only in the event of a sharp deterioration in Japan’s security situation. In the imaginings of Japanese policymakers, the most likely scenarios would be if South Korea goes nuclear or if the Koreas unify and keep Pyongyang’s existing arsenal. Japanese officials watched with interest when South Korean President Moon Jae-in extolled the benefits of unification with North Korea in an August 15 speech

The biggest obstacles to a Japanese nuclear weapons program aren’t technical or logistic; they are political, legal, and cultural.

commemorating liberation from Japan.

While Moon has insisted that a unified Korea would not retain nuclear arms, Japan remains wary in light of the pro-nuclear sentiments on both halves of the Korean peninsula. Unlike in South Korea, where mainstream politicians and newspaper columnists advocate for an indigenous nuclear weapons program, in Japan advocates for nuclear weapons remain largely on the far-right fringe. It is, however, increasingly acceptable to discuss nuclear arms as a future policy option. After North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006, for example, then Foreign Minister Taro Aso called for a public debate about the circumstances that would warrant a serious reconsideration of Japan’s non-nuclear policy.

Of course, Tokyo’s stance on nuclear weapons is shaped most fundamentally by its faith in the credibility of U.S. nuclear deterrence. Over the years, that credibility came into question when the United States lost the Vietnam War, withdrew from the Philippines, failed to prevent China and then North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons, and reduced its own nuclear arsenal.

Any Japanese move toward developing nuclear weapons should be seen as a cry for help. In the past, when Japanese leaders have hinted to Washington that they were considering going

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Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (L) and Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso (R). When he was Foreign Minister in 2006, Taro Aso opened debate on the external threats that could encourage Japan to adopt nuclear weapons.

Unlike in South Korea, where mainstream politicians and newspaper columnists advocate for an indigenous nuclear weapons program, in Japan advocates for nuclear weapons remain largely on the far-right fringe. nuclear, their intent was to encourage a stronger U.S. security commitment to Japan. Aso’s call for a public debate in 2006 elicited a reaffirmation of that commitment from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Aso followed an old script: in 1964, Prime Minister Eisaku Sato similarly raised the prospect of going nuclear to persuade President Lyndon B. Johnson to strengthen Washington’s pledge to safeguard Japanese security. Washington should learn from that history and work to assuage Japan’s fears, starting with clear statements from Trump that reassure Tokyo, refuse to pander to North Korean provocations, and discourage nuclear proliferation in an already tense region.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

People pray on the 74th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park on August 2019 ,6 in Hiroshima, Japan.

(Getty)

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Putin Welcomes Stalin Back to the Pantheon A New Russian Patriotism Embraces the Soviet Past 20

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Russia’s politicians are obsessed by Soviet glories.

They have declared themselves heirs to all the victories of their socialist predecessors— whether on the battlefield, in space, or in feats of engineering. to announce Brezhnev’s death.

This thick black quadrangle continues to hold Russian and Soviet history captive, bounding current understanding with myths about the past.

The country’s politicians are obsessed by Soviet glories. They have declared themselves heirs to all the victories of their socialist predecessors— whether on the battlefield, in space, or in feats of engineering. This history is really that of the state and its war machine, rather than that of the nation.

Portraits of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin on display at the opening of the Russia - My History.

2016-1945 exhibition at Moscow's Manege Central Exhibition Hall.

(Getty)

For many ordinary Russians, national pride remains fixed within this Soviet matrix. Among historical achievements, some of the most popular are the territorial acquisitions of the imperial and Soviet eras—not to mention the post-Soviet annexation of Crimea. This latter addition boosted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings: many saw it as a restoration of long-lost Soviet military glory.

by Andrei Kolesnikov On November 1982 ,10, the Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev died. The editors of Pravda, the country’s main newspaper, confronted something of a dilemma. A black frame would surround the front page to indicate mourning.

But how thick should it be—the same size as for mere mortals, or special in some way?

Eventually, someone thought to look in the newspaper’s archives to see what size had been used when Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin died, in 1953. The paper used precisely the same frame

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Putin in his speeches frequently compares his achievements to the victories and acquisitions of the Soviet past. The message is clear: whether Soviet or not, the country is in the same position as it once was.

THE POLITICS OF THE PAST Russian officialdom has lately developed an enormous appetite—bordering on patriotic hysteria—for historical politics. The interest is partly linked to the 80th anniversary of 1939, the

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year World War II broke out in Europe. Among the crucial events of that year for the Soviet Union was the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, in which Stalin and the German Führer Adolf Hitler concocted secret plans to divide the European mainland between themselves. The two dictators split up Poland, an act that, in the long run, drove the United Kingdom and France to enter the conflict.

Less than a month after the start of hostilities, Stalin and Hitler signed yet another accord: the German-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, which delineated spheres of influence between the two powers and gave Stalin the military flexibility along his western frontier to start the Winter War with Finland.

Soviet leaders took 50 years to admit to the existence of the secret protocols. When they did so, they also admitted that they were a mistake: in 1989, the era of President Mikhail Gorbachev, the Congress of People’s Deputies denounced the actions of their predecessors—among them, the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan in 1979 and the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

So it may come as some surprise that in recent months, articles have appeared in Russia reclaiming the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact as a

The reason for declaring the Russian Federation a successor to this mythical Soviet Union is simple: the Putin regime—which has now ruled the country for 20 years—has no history or achievements of its own, other than turning a democratic state into an authoritarian one and burning through colossal reserves of petrodollars.

feat of Soviet diplomacy. Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s minister of culture, and Sergei Naryshkin, the head of foreign intelligence—as well as steward of the Russian Historical Society—have both made statements to this effect. Medinsky practically denounced the 1989 conference as a terrible misstep. What is more, deputies of the current Russian parliament have spoken out to justify the Soviet Union’s Afghan adventure.

Because of the historic tension between Russia and Poland, reignited by statements like the ones above, Polish authorities did not invite Putin to Warsaw for ceremonies commemorating the start of World War II. Russian political figures, like the Speaker of the Parliament Vyacheslav Volodin and former Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, responded by attacking Polish leaders and labeling Poland a “satellite” of the United States.

The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact is perhaps the most florid, but not the only, contentious piece of Soviet history that Russian authorities have looked to rehabilitate. The country’s Military Historical Society—under Medinsky’s de facto control—has begun excavation work in the Sandarmokh forest in Karelis, near Finnish border, where Stalin’s secret police shot and buried Soviet political opponents en masse. The aim of the excavations?

To show that in fact the victims were not dissenters but Red Army prisoners of war—executed not by the Soviets but by the Finns.

STALINIZING HISTORY In Russia, World War II is known as the Great Patriotic War, and the Soviet victory is the glue of the nation. No one can doubt the feats of the Red Army or the enormous sacrifice of the Soviet people. But mythologizing that victory has come to entail glorifying Stalin. In recent years, TV propagandists have represented World War II not only as a war with Nazi Germany but as a battle against the West. Russians remember the role of the Allies less and less. Meanwhile, the ritual celebration of Victory Day on May 9 grows in pomp and ceremony with every passing year.

Putin has used the fête to strengthen his authority.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin walks by the grave of Soviet leader Josef Stalin, while visiting the Russian books festival in Red Square, on June 2015 ,25 in Moscow, Russia. (Getty)

the Russian Federation appears to be the direct heir to the Soviet Union. When senior officials say “we,” they mean the Soviet Union, too.

Even the bloody repressions of the Stalin era no longer seem so dreadful to ordinary Russians. In sociological polls, respondents increasingly say that these actions were “politically justified.”

The reason for declaring the Russian Federation a successor to this mythical Soviet Union is simple: the Putin regime—which has now ruled the country for 20 years—has no history or achievements of its own, other than turning a democratic state into an authoritarian one and burning through colossal reserves of petrodollars.

Russia did enjoy an economic upsurge in the early 2000s, but not because of Putin. Rather, oil prices were high, and Russia had made a successful transition to a market economy, thanks to a process that the reformer Yegor Gaidar had set into motion in the early 1990s. Full credit, however, must go to Putin for the current economic downturn, which is a consequence of Russia’s self-imposed isolation under his leadership, as well as his increasing the state’s role in the economic system.

And so the current regime is forced to make do with the achievements of the bygone Soviet era, which are largely fictitious, thanks to the use of official statistics to warp reality.

Official history is being Sovietized—or rather, Stalinized. The Stalin regime’s achievements have become a source of pride. And all of a sudden, officials rush to defend the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and the Winter War, when, in fact, these were utterly catastrophic decisions that sent many to their graves.

He has essentially privatized the victory and become its living symbol, although he was born seven years after the war ended.

Russia is neither practically nor formally the legal successor of the Soviet Union. It is a new state formed on democratic principles. But under Putin,

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Whoever controls the historical narrative controls the nation. What is more, the leaders of nations tend to look to the past for an image of the future.

In Russia’s case, the image they see is that of a harshly authoritarian state, both militarized and ideologized, controlling the economy, politics, and even people’s souls. The Russian elite can justly be described as the grandchildren of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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How China Sees the Hong Kong Crisis

The Real Reasons Behind Beijing’s Restraint

by Andrew J. Nathan Massive and sometimes violent protests have rocked Hong Kong for over 100 days. Demonstrators have put forward five demands, of which the most radical is a call for free, direct elections of Hong Kong’s chief executive and all members of the territory’s legislature: in other words, a fully democratic system of local rule, one not controlled by

Beijing. As this brazen challenge to Chinese sovereignty has played out, Beijing has made a show of amassing paramilitary forces just across the border in Shenzhen. So far, however, China has not deployed force to quell the unrest and top Chinese leaders have refrained from making public threats to do so.

Western observers who remember the violent crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square 30

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years ago have been puzzled by Beijing’s forbearance.

Some have attributed Beijing’s restraint to a fear of Western condemnation if China uses force. Others have pointed to Beijing’s concern that a crackdown would damage Hong Kong’s role as a financial center for China.

But according to two Chinese scholars who have connections to regime insiders and who requested anonymity to discuss the thinking of policymakers in Beijing, China’s response has been rooted not in anxiety but in confidence. Beijing is convinced that Hong Kong’s elites and a substantial part of the public do not support the demonstrators and that what truly ails the territory are economic problems rather than political ones—in particular, a combination of stagnant incomes and rising rents. Beijing also believes that, despite the appearance of disorder, its grip on Hong Kong society remains firm. The Chinese Communist Party has long cultivated the territory’s business elites (the so-called tycoons) by offering them favorable economic access to the mainland. The party also maintains a long-standing loyal cadre of underground members in the territory.

And China has forged ties with the Hong Kong labor movement and some sections of its criminal underground.

Finally, Beijing believes that many ordinary citizens are fearful of change and tired of the disruption caused by the demonstrations.

People protest a ban against masks in Sham Shui Po on October ,5 2019 in Hong Kong, China. (Getty)

Beijing therefore thinks that its local allies will stand firm and that the demonstrations will gradually lose public support and eventually die out. As the demonstrations shrink, some frustrated activists will engage in further violence, and that in turn will accelerate the movement’s decline. Meanwhile, Beijing is turning its attention to economic development projects that it believes will address some of the underlying grievances that led many people to take to the streets in the first place.

This view of the situation is held by those at the very top of the regime in Beijing, as evidenced by recent remarks made by Chinese President Xi Jinping, some of which have not been previously reported. In a speech Xi delivered in early September to a new class of rising political stars at the Central Party School in Beijing, he rejected the suggestion of some officials that China should declare a state of emergency in Hong Kong and send in the People’s Liberation Army. “That would be going down a political road of no return,” Xi said. “The central government will exercise the most patience and restraint and allow the [regional government] and the local police force to resolve the crisis.” In separate remarks that Xi made around the same time, he spelled out what he sees as the proper way to proceed: “Economic development is the only golden key to resolving all sorts of problems facing Hong Kong today.”

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Demonstrators have put forward five demands, of which the most radical is a call for free, direct elections of Hong Kong’s chief executive and all members of the territory’s legislature: in other words, a fully democratic system of local rule, one not controlled by Beijing.

ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS, MANY QUESTIONS Chinese decision-makers are hardly surprised that Hong Kong is chafing under their rule. Beijing believes it has treated Hong Kong with a light hand and has supported the territory’s economy in many ways, especially by granting it special access to the mainland’s stocks and currency markets, exempting it from the taxes and fees that other Chinese provinces and municipalities pay the central government, and guaranteeing a reliable supply of water, electricity, gas, and food. Even so, Beijing considers disaffection among Hong Kong’s residents a natural outgrowth of the territory’s colonial British past and also a result of the continuing influence of Western values.

Indeed, during the 1984 negotiations between China and the United Kingdom over Hong Kong’s future, the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping suggested following the approach of “one country, two systems” for 50 years precisely to give people in Hong Kong plenty of time to get used to the Chinese political system.

But “one country, two systems” was never intended to result in Hong Kong spinning out of China’s control. Under the Basic Law that China crafted as Hong Kong’s “miniconstitution,” Beijing retained the right to prevent any challenge to what it considered its core security interests.

The law empowered Beijing to determine if and when Hong Kongers could directly elect the territory’s leadership, allowed Beijing to veto laws passed by the Hong Kong Legislative Council, and granted China the right to make final interpretations of the Basic Law. And there would be no question about who had a monopoly of force. During the negotiations with the United Kingdom, Deng publicly rebuked a top Chinese defense official—General Geng Biao, who at the time was a patron of a rising young official

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named Xi Jinping—for suggesting that there might not be any need to put troops in Hong Kong. Deng insisted that a Chinese garrison was necessary to symbolize Chinese sovereignty.

At first, Hong Kongers seemed to accept their new role as citizens of a rising China. In 1997, in a tracking poll of Hong Kong residents regularly conducted by researchers at the University of Hong Kong, 47 percent of respondents identified themselves as “proud” citizens of China. But things went downhill from there. In 2012, the Hong Kong government tried to introduce “patriotic education” in elementary and middle schools, but the proposed curriculum ran into a storm of local opposition and had to be withdrawn. In 2014, the -79day Umbrella Movement brought hundreds of thousands of citizens into the streets to protest Beijing’s refusal to allow direct elections for the chief executive. And as authoritarianism has intensified under Xi’s rule, events such as the 2015 kidnapping of five Hong Kong–based publishers to stand trial in the mainland further soured Hong Kong opinion. By this past June, only 27 percent of respondents to the tracking poll described themselves as “proud” to be citizens of China.

This year’s demonstrations started as a protest against a proposed law that would have allowed Hong Kongers suspected of criminal wrongdoing to be extradited to the mainland but then developed into a broad-based expression of discontent over the lack of democratic accountability, police brutality, and, most fundamentally, what was perceived as a mainland assault on Hong Kong’s unique identity.

Still, Chinese leaders do not blame themselves for these shifts in public opinion. Rather, they believe that Western

In 1997, in a tracking poll of Hong Kong residents regularly conducted by researchers at the University of Hong Kong, 47 percent of respondents identified themselves as “proud” citizens of China. But things went downhill from there.

powers, especially the United States, have sought to drive a wedge between Hong Kong and the mainland.

Statements made by U.S. politicians in support of the recent demonstrations only confirm Beijing’s belief that Washington seeks to inflame radical sentiments in Hong Kong. As Xi explained in his speech in September: As extreme elements in Hong Kong turn more and more violent, Western forces, especially the United States, have been increasingly open in their involvement. Some extreme anti-China forces in the United States are trying to turn Hong Kong into the battleground for U.S.-Chinese rivalry…. They want to turn Hong Kong's high degree of autonomy into de facto independence, with the ultimate objective to contain China's rise and prevent the revival of the great Chinese nation.

Chinese leaders do not fear that a crackdown on Hong Kong would inspire Western antagonism. Rather, they take such antagonism as a preexisting reality—one that goes a long way toward explaining why the disorder in Hong Kong broke out in the first place. In Beijing’s eyes, Western hostility is rooted in the mere fact of China’s rise, and thus there is no use in tailoring China’s Hong Kong strategy to

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Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party Central Advisory Committee, Deng Xiaoping (L) and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher (R) talk in a file photo dated 24 September 1982 at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing during one of their meetings leading up to the signing of the SinoBritish Joint Declaration on the future of Hong Kong on 26 September in 1984, setting up the territory as a Special Administrative Region of China. (Getty)

through financial holding vehicles set up in Hong Kong, in order to benefit from the region’s legal protections. But China’s new foreign investment law (which will take effect on January 2020 ,1) and other recent policy changes mean that such investment will soon be able to bypass Hong Kong.

And although Hong Kong remains the largest offshore clearing center for renminbi, that role could easily be filled

by London or Singapore, if Chinese leaders so desired.

Wrecking Hong Kong’s economy by using military force to impose emergency rule would not be a good thing for China. But the negative effect on the mainland’s prosperity would not be strong enough to prevent Beijing from doing whatever it believes is necessary to maintain control over the territory.

CAN’T BUY ME LOVE? As it waits out the current crisis, Beijing has already started tackling the economic problems that it believes are source of much of the anger among Hong Kongers. Housing prices have tripled over the past decade; today, the median price of a house is more than 20 times the median gross annual household income. The median rent has increased by nearly 25 percent in the past six years. As many as 250,000 people are waiting for public housing. At the same time, income growth for many Hong Kong residents has fallen below the overall increase in cost of living.

Beijing believes that if it could make improvements on those metrics, the situation in Hong Kong would stabilize in a sustainable way.

influence how Western powers would respond.

IT’S NOT ABOUT THE BENJAMINS The view that Xi has not deployed troops because of Hong Kong’s economic importance to the mainland is also misguided, and relies on an outdated view of the balance of economic power. In 1997, Hong Kong’s GDP was equivalent to 18 percent of the mainland’s. Most of China’s foreign trade was conducted through Hong Kong, providing China with badly needed hard currencies.

Chinese companies raised most of their capital on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Today, things are vastly different. In 2018, Hong Kong’s GDP was equal to only 2.7 percent of the mainland’s. Shenzhen alone has overtaken Hong Kong in terms of GDP. Less than 12 percent of China’s exports now flow through Hong Kong. The combined market value of China’s domestic stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen far surpasses that of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and Chinese companies can also list in Frankfurt, London, New York, and elsewhere.

Investment flowing into and out of China still tends to pass

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In mid-September, China’s main party newspaper, The People’s Daily, published a lengthy commentary endorsing a proposal to seize private land in Hong Kong for the purpose of building public housing. The tycoons in Hong Kong seem to have gotten the message: just last week, New World Development, a major real-estate firm, announced that it would donate nearly three million square feet of farmland—almost a fifth of the company’s holdings—to Hong Kong’s government and to nonprofit organizations, for the purpose of building more public housing.

Meanwhile, there is little indication that the top leadership in Beijing is divided over the handling of Hong Kong or that Xi’s position has been weakened by the upheaval there.

Barring a flare-up of prolonged and large-scale violence, Beijing is determined to stay the course, relying on the Hong Kong government, police, and business community to keep pressure on the demonstrators until the prodemocracy movement dies out.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

A Weekly Political News Magazine

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Abbey Road at 50

www.majalla.com

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Preventing Seasonal Maladies A Quick Guide to Winter Bug Protection

by Harvard Health Letter

THE COLD WEATHER LINK

Winter is on the way, and along with cold temperatures, the season brings a spectrum of potential health problems for everyone -- especially for older adults. That's why it's important to take precautions now, before you get sick.

Cold weather doesn't cause illness, but it may foster it. "Some studies have found that both cold and flu viruses can multiply and spread more easily in lower temperatures and humidity. Additionally, cold air reduces blood flow to the lining of the nose, throat, and lungs, which may dampen the immune

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closer proximity," explains Dr. Suzanne Salamon, a geriatrician with Harvard-affiliated Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center.

A DISADVANTAGE To make matters worse, older adults are especially susceptible to getting sick. "That's partly because the immune system gets a little weaker as we get older," Dr. Salamon says. "Also, as we get older, we tend to get other conditions, like arthritis, that compete for the attention and energy of the immune system, distracting it from fighting an infection."

WHAT YOU’RE UP AGAINST There are many kinds of winter illnesses. Here are some of the usual culprits.

The common cold or viral rhinitis can be caused by more than 200 viruses. Symptoms come on gradually and can include a sore throat, nose and sinus congestion, thick and sometimes discolored discharge, a runny nose, sneezing, a cough, or hoarseness.

Sinusitis is an infection that can be caused by cold viruses or bacteria. The sinus lining swells, blocking mucus from draining. Symptoms include pressure, pain (in the cheeks, over the eyes), nasal congestion, thick yellow or green discharge, a diminished sense of smell, fever, headache, and fatigue.

Bronchitis is an inflammation of the lining of the bronchial tubes, the hollow air passages that connect the windpipe to the lungs. Viruses cause most cases of acute (short-term) bronchitis, although bacteria also can cause the condition. Symptoms include tightness in the chest and a cough that produces phlegm.

system response," says Dr. Craig Jones, an ear, nose, and throat specialist with Harvard-affiliated Massachusetts Eye and Ear. But what really triggers so much illness during the winter is increased exposure to germs. "Cold temperatures drive people indoors. If you're in a store with people clustered around and less air circulating, it's easier to catch bugs because everyone's in

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Pneumonia is inflammation deep in the lungs, affecting the small air sacs and nearby tissue.

Both viruses and bacteria can cause the condition.

Symptoms include fever, chills, a cough producing phlegm, labored breathing, fatigue, and sometimes pain in the chest when you breathe in deeply. But the symptoms of pneumonia can be more subtle. "Very frequently older people are just confused or very tired, no cough or fever," Dr. Salamon says.

Influenza (flu) is a very contagious and potentially deadly viral illness. Symptoms come on quickly and include fever, cough, sore throat, runny nose, muscle aches, fatigue, and sometimes vomiting and diarrhea.

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Stomach bugs are viruses, such as norovirus, which are contagious and cause vomiting and diarrhea for a few days. You can get sick from an infected person or by eating, drinking, or touching something with the virus on it.

PREVENTION To avoid winter illnesses, you'll have to take extra precautions. Get a flu shot, make sure you've had the pneumococcal vaccine if you're 65 or older, and wash your hands before eating or touching your eyes, nose, or mouth. Carry hand sanitizer when you travel.

Avoid close contact with people who're sick. "For most common illnesses, waiting two weeks after the person became infected is enough time to reduce the risk of catching the infection. For young kids who have the flu, it may be better to wait three weeks after the illness," Dr. Jones says.

On airplanes: "Direct the air vent toward your face, as the air coming from the vent is filtered and will help to deflect any germs away from your nose," Dr. Jones advises.

"And stay away from shared food, like potlucks, during norovirus [winter] season," Dr. Salamon warns.

WHAT IF YOU GET SICK? Take symptoms seriously, and report them to your

For flu, you may be able to shorten its course and avoid serious complications with antiviral medications. But that's only if you begin treatment within two days after symptoms appear.

doctor if they're severe or they last a few days. For bacterial illness, such as bacterial pneumonia or sinusitis, you'll need an antibiotic.

For flu, you may be able to shorten its course and avoid serious complications with antiviral medications. But that's only if you begin treatment within two days after symptoms appear.

Otherwise, there's little you can do for the flu or any

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Pharmacist giving customer flu shot. (Getty)

virus (like a cold) but treat symptoms. How? Take lozenges for a sore throat, over-the-counter painkillers for body aches, and antidiarrheals for diarrhea.

"For nasal congestion, you can use oxymetazoline nose spray [Afrin], but not for longer than three days unless your doctor tells you to, as it can lead to increased nasal congestion beyond that. For excess mucus, use guaifenesin [Mucinex]," Dr.

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Jones advises.

"For sniffles, I recommend the antihistamine loratadine [Claritin] and a spray called azelastine [Astelin], which helps with a runny nose without drowsiness," Dr. Salamon says.

And for all winter bugs, try to rest and get lots of fluids so you can get better soon.

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Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte: The Stabilizer of an Unbalanced Government

by Majalla-London 1. Early Life and Education Giuseppe Conte was born on August 1964 ,8 in the small Italian village of Volturara Appula. His father worked in their local municipality, while his mother made a living as a school teacher.

2. Academic Pursuits Before he emerged as a prominent politician during the 2018 political deadlock in Italy, Conte kept a relatively low profile working as a law academic.

In 1988, he graduated from Sapienza University of Rome with a law degree. During the 1990s, he would pursue further studies at other major law colleges abroad such as Yale Law School in the US and Internationales Kulturinstitut in Austria.

He later became a lecturer and a researcher mainly at Sorbonne University in France, but he also had stints at Cambridge and New York University.

3. Career in Law Throughout his law tenure, Conte wrote 650 papers on the protection of basic rights and freedoms. He is currently a professor of private law at the University of Florence and LUISS of Rome and also runs a law firm in the Italian capital.

4. Different Dreams During Youth Conte didn’t always want a career in law and politics, as a matter of fact during his younger

years he wanted an entirely different career path as he dreamed of becoming a football player.

Unfortunately, an articular cartilage operation forced him to abandon this dream. Conte is still an avid football fan and is a supporter of the Serie A club A.S. Roma.

5. Opportunity Knocks During the 2018 Political Deadlock Despite not being an MP or a member of a political party, his ties with the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the 2018 political deadlock following the general election gave him a serendipitous opportunity of a lifetime. Before the election, Luigi Di Maio, the leader of M5S, named Conte as a potential Minister of Public Administration if the party was to win the vote. However, a hung parliament meant that M5S had to form a coalition government with the CenterRight Coalition which is headed by Lega Nord and its leader Matteo Salvini. Di Maio and Salvini both chose Conte as a neutral candidate to head the coalition government, even though he has ties with the M5S. Moreover, both Di Maio and Salvini would serve as Deputy Prime Ministers. As such Conte was tasked with coordinating between both ruling parties.

6. A Puppet on Strings During his first year in office, Conte made several international trips, visiting various international leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. His first

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major summit was the 2018 G7 meeting, where he met US President Donald Trump. While he proved his political legitimacy on the international stage, many Italians back home considered him a political puppet controlled by Di Maio and Salvini.

2019 .7 Political Crisis: Conte Clashes with Salvini Spending little over a year in office, Conte faced his first major political crisis in August-September 2019. The crisis emerged after the M5S and Lega Nord had disagreements over the construction of the Turin–Lyon high-speed railway. As a result, the Lega Nord’s Matteo Salvini tabled a motion of no confidence against Conte and requested the President of the Republic to call a snap election.

Many saw this as a move by Salvini to gain more power in parliament, but Conte wouldn’t give in to his whims and instead opted to resign as Prime Minister just so that he could form a new cabinet composed of the M5S members and members of left-leaning parties, thus removing all Lega Nord elements from government. This new cabinet was sworn in on September 5, and Salvini was removed from his posts as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Interior. Conte’s victory was twofold, first he successfully kept his post as Prime Minister, and second, he triumphantly showcased his leadership and valiance against a political opponent who sought to force him out of power.

One thing is for certain now, no one can call Conte a puppet to Salvini.

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Abbey Road at 50

How the Band’s Final Studio Album Signaled the End of the Fab Four

by Ali El Shamy The latter years of the 1960s proved to be a fruitful time for The Beatles, although they had quit doing live concerts in 1966 it was during that time period in which they produced their most experimental and influential music. At that point, their music didn’t consist of boy band love ballads, such as She Loves You or Please Please Me, which got them famous in the first place. Instead, the band’s sound had radically changed as they started experimenting with different melodies and recording effects. Post1966-, the group became pioneers of several genres such as psychedelic rock, electronic music, and even heavy metal.

The band released its masterpiece album, Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band, in 1967 which contained various classics such as the psychedelic Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds, the Hindustani influenced Within You Without You and A Day in the Life, which is widely considered the band’s greatest song. Unfortunately, the next two years would be marred with the slow disintegration of the band, while the Beatles still released critically acclaimed albums post-Sgt. Pepper’s, in-group fighting, disputes, and walkouts eventually led to their breakup in early 1970. In spite of this, The Beatles managed to go out with a bang with the release of their last recorded studio album Abbey Road released on September 1969 ,26. (Let it Be was technically the last album to be released, but recording for

it started before that of Abbey Road, as such there is much debate among Beatles’ fans over which is their last album, but that’s a question for another day). The album’s legacy extends beyond its reputation as the Beatles’ farewell, rather it became a testament to how all four members grew and developed over the past decade and the kind of music they would work on during their respective solo careers.

As the 50th anniversary of the album’s release has recently passed, now is a better time than any to take a look at the lasting impact of Abbey Road.

JOHN EMERGES WITH NUMBER ONE HIT DESPITE MCCARTNEY’S DOMINANCE When The Beatles released the album A Hard Day’s Night in 1964, it was clear that John Lennon was the main composer of the band, as ten out of the thirteen songs were written by him. However, by the mid1960-s Paul McCartney started to rise as the more domineering voice in the group, as John would settle more towards the sidelines. Despite this, it was John's Come Together, that was released as a single and it was his song that became a number one hit in the US while peaking at number 4 in the UK charts. However, this wouldn’t be the band’s last number-one single, as Paul's Long and Winding Road released in 1970 has this honor. While this might seem like

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The cover of The Beatles' "Abbey Road" album. (TNS)

a victory for McCartney it is somewhat of a bittersweet one since his song was mired with production intervention as producer Phil Spector used an orchestra over Paul’s recording in a technique he pioneered called “The Wall of Sound” which has been criticized for rendering singers’ voices largely inaudible. Needless to say, Paul hated this edited version of the song, but this was the one released that was released to the public and the one that became the group’s last hit, much to his dismay. Moreover, the song’s commercial success did not reflect its critical success, as critics had an unfavorable view of it. So while John’s last hit for the band was a song that he, the fans and critics loved, the same cannot be said for Paul’s last hit for the band. John’s other significant song, I Want You (She’s So Heavy), reflected his sound during his early solo career.

Like many of his early solo songs, I Want You has a melancholic sound to it and has John really sing his heart out as if he’s therapeutically trying to get something off his chest. Examples of such songs include Mother which focuses on his feelings of abandonment from his mother, who was largely absent from his childhood and died shortly after they rekindled their relationship, and his father who left him while he was a toddler, and Cold Turkey which was centered on his heroin addiction.

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PAUL CONTINUES HIS DIVIRSIFIED REPETOIRE WHILE MAXWELL MAKES ENEMIES WITH OTHER THREE BEATLES Throughout both his Beatle and solo career, Paul McCartney has displayed an impressive musical prowess that hasn’t been displayed by the other three members of the group. First of all his musical gift is reflected in his ability to play 54 instruments, moreover, he has shown the talent of writing songs in a myriad of styles. During his tenure with The Beatles, he wrote rock ballads such as Birthday and Back in the USSR, love songs such as Here, There and Everywhere and he even pioneered new musical styles such as Helter Skelter which many view as a prototype to the heavy metal genre. This menagerie of different tunes was also present in Abbey Road, as Oh! Darling, She Came in Through the Bathroom Window and The End all displayed his varied musical styles.

However, as Paul became the de facto leader of the group post1967-, other members started to resent his workaholism and his bossy habit of making the other members record multiple takes before he was finally satisfied with his songs.

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The other Beatles had particularly disliked Paul’s softer, more whimsical songs such as When I’m 64 and Ob-La-Di, Ob-La-Da. John especially hated these songs and referred to them as “Paul’s granny sh*t”, the recording of the latter song in particular during the White Album sessions really aggravated Lennon. It took the band three to four days to record Ob-La-Di, Ob-La-Da as Paul’s perfectionism took the better of him and he insisted on remaking the song from scratch twice. This eventually caused John to storm out of the studio and only to return hours later stoned out of his mind and start erratically playing the piano intro of the song, which was eventually used in the final recording.

George Harrison would also quit the band during the White Album recordings, according to Starr his brief departure happened after an argument with McCartney, though there is a reason to believe he may have also had a feud with John who would reportedly dismiss any of the songs he wrote for the band. While the disputes might have subsided and the White Album was eventually recorded, the seeds of discord were well planted, and would eventually come into full bloom by the Abbey Road/Let it Be sessions.

Then comes Maxwell’s Silver Hammer, another one of McCartney’s so-called “granny songs”, which has a deceptively child friendly melody accompanied by the not so child friendly lyrics centered on a serial killer called Maxwell who murders his victims by banging a silver hammer on their heads. Whether or not you like this song, one thing is for sure, the other three members didn’t. John hated it, and has previously said in an interview how Paul had them redo it “a hundred million times”. While he was present when the other three members were recording the song, John chose not to take part in the actual recording.

George and Ringo didn’t particularly like the song either, in a 1977 interview with Crawdaddy magazine Harrison made it clear that he, like John, had a disdain for Paul’s “fruity songs” and singled out Maxwell’s Silver Hammer in particular. Another reason why he hated the song was because Paul would keep adding new arrangements

The other Beatles had particularly disliked Paul’s softer, more whimsical songs such as When I’m 64 and Ob-La-Di, Ob-La-Da.

whenever he thought of a new one. Ringo shared similar sentiments, in a 2008 Rolling Stone interview, he stated they recorded the song for “f*cking weeks”. There is a reason why some fans dub this song as the “one that broke up The Beatles”. In a way, Paul's perfectionism and workaholism did work out for him, after he did end up having the most successful solo career having secured 9 number one hits post-breakup and 14 out of his 25 albums went platinum.

HERE COMES GEORGE WITH SOMETHING SPECIAL As a Beatles fan, I always considered George Harrison to be the overlooked Beatle. Throughout his time with the band,

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The Beatles, one of the most famous groups in the history of pop music; from left to right, George Harrison (1943 2001 -), Ringo Starr, John Lennon (- 1940 1980), and in front, Paul McCartney, at the EMI studios in Abbey Road, as they prepare for 'Our World', a worldwide live television show broadcasting to 24 countries with a potential audience of 400 million. (Getty)

One of the poignant scenes in Let it Be was the Long and Winding Road rehearsal; the scene had a quite somber mood to it as all members of the group just seemed tired, depressed and apathetic. his writing talent with such classics such as Taxman, I Want to Tell You, Within You Without You, Love You To and of course While My Guitar Gently Weeps.

Harrison would go on to demonstrate his songwriting abilities in Abbey Road, as he contributed two of the best songs to the album: Something and Here Comes the Sun. Something was more than just a love song, I think it perfectly expresses the feelings someone develops when they start falling for someone, lyrics like “Something in the way she moves, Attracts me like no other lover”, “Something in the way she knows, And all I have to do is think of her” and “You're asking me will my love grow, I don't know, I don't know” sum up these early love days perfectly, those days when you can’t quite place your finger on what attracts you to a person. Moreover, the greatest aspect of this love song is the fact that George didn’t rely on cliché phrases like “I Love You” or “You’re My One and Only”. Frank Sinatra considered Something as one of the greatest love songs ever written and I for one couldn’t agree more. Sinatra, in fact, liked it so much that he often sang his own cover version of the song live in concert, of that isn’t a testament to George’s songwriting talent I don’t know what is. both John and Paul looked down on him as a songwriter.

Despite showing early promise during the band’s prefame days (he co-wrote In Spite of All the Danger and Cry for a Shadow in the first Anthology album), he was soon relegated to only getting to write one to two songs per album, while John and Paul got to write the majority of songs. I always think that one of the reasons why John and Paul didn’t take him as seriously as they should have was because they always viewed him as the naïve younger brother, which shouldn’t come as a surprise since they first met George when he was 14, while John and Paul were 17 and 16 at the time, respectively. In many ways, I don’t think that dynamic really changed, despite the fact that they were well into their mid to late 20s post-Sgt. Pepper, but it really should have. After all, George had well proven

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Here Comes the Sun is another iconic song; in the album it followed the loud and chaotic ending of I Want You (She’s so Heavy). On paper such song arrangements shouldn’t work, but the band somehow made it work, but anyway on to the song again I commend George for taking a simple emotion and turning it into a relatable and expressive song. Anyone who has lived through the winter months of England can tell you how dark and gloomy it gets for those 5-4 months, hence once March comes springing and sunlight starts creeping, you can’t help but smile as you turn your back towards those long winter months: “Little darling, it's been a long cold lonely winter, Little darling, it feels like years since it's been here”. On a deeper level, it also shows how one feels when they start recovering from a dark period during their life, I’m sure most of us can relate to lyrics like “Little darling, I feel that ice is slowly melting, Little

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darling, it seems like years since it's been clear”.

George actually wrote the song while he took some time away from the studio and spent the day at his friend, Eric Clapton’s, Surrey home. At the time, he was feeling disillusioned by how formal life in the recording studio was getting, he gave more detail on the background of the song in the Anthology: “Here Comes The Sun was written at the time when Apple was getting like school, where we had to go and be businessmen: 'Sign this' and 'Sign that'. Anyway, it seems as if winter in England goes on forever; by the time spring comes you really deserve it.” It is unfortunate that the Apple Corps studio could never become a warm, kindred place for George and the rest of the Beatles again and that all four felt like they needed a permanent holiday away from each other. It is also a shame that John and Paul still didn’t show George the respect he deserved as a songwriter, however, a recent article in the Guardian did indicate that they started appreciating him more. The article focused on a tape recording the band did shortly after the release of Abbey Road, in which they started talking about their plans after the album. Apparently, John and Paul had finally agreed to give George his fair share of songs on future albums, as three members would get four songs each. Funnily enough, the tape did show the two frontmen still berating George as Paul gave him a backhanded compliment: “I thought until this album that George’s songs weren’t that good,” to which George responded: “That’s a matter of taste. All down the line, people have liked my songs.”

This again shows the underlying tensions that came to define the latter years of the Beatles. While John and Paul never truly gave George the recognition he deserved, he

Frank Sinatra considered Something as one of the greatest love songs ever written and I for one couldn’t agree more. Sinatra, in fact, liked it so much that he often sang his own cover version of the song live in concert, of that isn’t a testament to George’s songwriting talent I don’t know what is.

got the last laugh soon after the breakup when he was the first Beatle to achieve a number one hit post break up with My Sweet Lord a song from his 1970 album All Things Must Pass.

RINGO GETS A LITTLE HELP FROM HIS FRIEND Ringo Starr was never the prolific songwriter that John, Paul, or George were, however, his songs both during his Beatles and solo career did have their own charm to them.

His first songwriting attempt came in the White Album in the form of Don’t Pass Me By, an endearing ditty that displayed Starr’s love for the country western genre.

Abbey Road contained his second and final song entitled Octopus’s Garden, which he wrote when he briefly quit the band and took a family trip to Sardinia. During the holiday, he a seafood dish containing octopus, which he had never eaten before from there he had the idea of how delightful it would be to be under the sea away from life’s hardships and troubles. After he returned to the band, he started composing the music for the song with the help of George Harrison. While George was more than happy to help his friend, there is little evidence to believe that John and Paul were as enthusiastic, in fact, if you listen to one of the takes contained in Anthology 3 you can clearly hear them uninterestedly singing along in the background, but at least he could rely on good ol’ George for help. While admittedly not his best song, Ringo did more than makeup for it in his solo career, as he wrote/released several hits such as It Don’t Come Easy, Photograph and Early 1970. The former two songs were also a testament to his everlasting friendship with

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The Beatles during their younger years. (TNS)

Harrison as he served as their co-writer.

COULD THE BAND HAVE BEEN SALVEGED? The recent Guardian article that I cited in George’s section seems to allude that the Beatles tried to prevent the band from breaking up. However, this appears to be a brief moment of denial from the band members, and I’m sure deep down all four members knew that they were beating a dead horse at this point. Anyone who is as obsessed with The Beatles as I am has likely seen the 1970 documentary film Let it Be, which showcased the band rehearsing and recording songs mostly from Let it Be, and some from Abbey Road. Likewise, anyone who has seen the film would have seen that the band was at its wits end, some scenes that come to mind are the one in which George and Paul were having an argument over the former’s guitar playing, or John not paying attention to George presenting his new song I, Me, Mine and instead opts to start making out with his girlfriend Yoko Ono and then subsequently waltzing with her while Harrison was

singing. Paul was too controlling, John just didn’t seem to care anymore and George and Ringo were frustrated with the fact that they weren’t being represented in the albums.

One of the poignant scenes in the film was the Long and Winding Road rehearsal; the scene had a quite somber mood to it as all members of the group just seemed tired, depressed and apathetic. They were no longer the four young beady-eyed Liverpudliuans who went on stage to sing feel-good songs such as Twist and Shout and I Want to Hold Your Hand, they were now indistinguishable from disillusioned employees who have been working 9 to 5 for countless years. Even Paul who was practicing one of his own songs had this indescribable melancholy look in his eyes, which almost signaled to the audience that it was all over for the group, it was just of a matter of when, rather than if. In all honesty, if I could accurately describe the scene, it was almost like a funeral service for The Beatles. While the band’s demise was inevitable, at least they gave us two great albums (Abbey Road/Let it Be) before all four members parted their own ways.

In the end, the love they took was equal to the love they made.

American photographer Linda McCartney (1998-1941) sitting besides Ringo Starr, Paul McCartney, George Harrison (2001-1943), and John Lennon (1980-1940) of the Beatles as they play their final live performance on the roof of 3 Savile Row, Apple Corps headquarters, January 1969 ,30 in London, United Kingdom. (Getty)

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