When Hezbollah Lost its Sacredness

Trump›s Middle East Peace Plan Faces Major Challenges

Washington Signals Openness to Dialogue, but Tehran Rebuffs

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1751- June - 07/06/2019

When Hezbollah Lost its Sacredness www.majalla.com

Editorial Ever since its inception in 1985, Hezbollah has been a destabilizing force in the region. Politically allied with Iran, the group has long been a proxy to the Islamic Republic, which in turn has used it to carry out attacks against its adversaries in the region. Nevertheless, Hezbollah has been facing major setbacks in recent years which have caused a reduction in its support base. In this week's cover story, Hanin Ghaddar focuses on the group’s recent complications and how they affected its influence in the region. The writer explores Hezbollah’s support base of Shia Lebanese, giving a brief account of how the group attracted its supporters and why it is having trouble keeping them. According to the writer, the group relied on three pillars namely resistance, providing social services and jobs and its ties with Iran’s Wilayat Al Faqih in Iran. Over time, the group became sacred to the Lebanese Shia community, but recent developments, such as the group’s corruption, it's cutting of social services and the fact that it has attacked Lebanese groups or people who oppose it, has caused it to lose many of its supporters.

Yasmine El-Geressi writes on the current problems facing the Trump Administration’s proposed Middle East peace plan. As the first step of the plan, the administration is holding an economic workshop in Bahrain late this month aimed at offering a vision for investment in the West Bank, Gaza, and neighbouring countries. But Palestinian officials and groups have refused to participate as they believe that the secret political component of the plan favors Israel. Furthermore, the Israeli Prime Minister’s failure to form a coalition government following his election victory earlier this year has paved the way for new elections in September - an unprecedented development that may force the Trump administration to delay its announcement of the plan.

Joseph Braude compares how Republicans and Democrats have reacted to Trump’s policies toward Iran. While Republicans are largely supportive of Trump’s policies, Democrats are divided over them. For instance, some presidential candidates, such as Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris, have expressed their intention to return the US to the Iran nuclear deal, while others, such as Cory Booker, have stated that the US must remain vigilant against Iran.

In sports, Ali El Shamy writes on how Jürgen Klopp, managed to transform Liverpool from a team with no identity to Champions League winners in a span of almost four seasons. The writer focuses on many elements of his management from his tactics, to his passion and how he makes everyone in the club, including the fans, feel involved with the team’s success.

We invite you to read these articles and more on our website eng. majalla.com. As always, we welcome and value our reader’s feedback and we invite you to take the opportunity to leave your comments on our website.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

30 For Rohingya Refugees, There’s No Return in Sight

Issue 1751- June - 07/06/2019

20 Why Venezuela’s Regime Hasn’t Collapsed

24 The New Revolution in Military Affairs

32 38 Armies, Gold, Flags- and Stories

pursuit of peace, Yossi Klein Halevi examines 42 Incommonalities between the sons of Abraham

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5 food and Drink Fads You Can Skip 3

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52 The Jürgen Klopp Effect

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Veterans take part in an event to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the D-Day landings, in Portsmouth, southern England, on June 2019 ,5.

US President Donald Trump, Queen Elizabeth II and 300 veterans are to gather on the south coast of England on Wednesday for a poignant ceremony marking the 75th anniversary of D-Day. Other world leaders will join them in Portsmouth for Britain's national event to commemorate the Allied invasion of the Normandy beaches in France -- one of the turning points of World War II. (Getty)

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A Syrian girl carries a toy that was given to her by a Syrian man living in Finland and calling himself "The Toy Smuggler", after he distributed toys to children at a DIP camp for Internally Displaced Persons near the town of Aqrabat in Syria's northern Idlib province, on June ,4 2019 as Muslims around the world celebrate Eid al-Fitr, the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan.

(Getty)

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two-state solution. It urged member countries to take “appropriate measures” against countries that move their embassies to Jerusalem. The OIC also refused to accept any proposal for peaceful settlement that did not accord with Palestinians’ legitimate inalienable rights, the final statement said.

Sudan Opposition Rejects Military's Offer of Talks as Death Toll Rises to 108 Sudan’s military rulers offered to resume talks with opposition groups on Wednesday, two days after security forces mounted a deadly raid on a protest camp, but the opposition rejected the invitation.

Medics linked to the opposition said the death toll from Monday’s operation and subsequent unrest had risen to 108 and that it was expected to increase.

State news agency SUNA early on Thursday put the number much lower, at 46, citing a health ministry official. The raid, which followed weeks of wrangling between the ruling military council and opposition groups over who should lead Sudan’s transition to democracy, marked the worst outbreak

of violence since the army ousted President Omar al-Bashir in April after months of protests against his -30year rule.

OIC Summit Condemns Any Decision to Recognise Jerusalem as Israel's Capital The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) said it condemns any position adopted by an international body that supports prolonging occupation of Palestinian territories, including a U.S. decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The OIC summit in Mecca said in its final statement on Saturday that it opposes all illegal Israeli measures aimed at changing facts in occupied Palestinian territories including Jerusalem, and undermining the

Egyptian Forces Kill 19 Suspected Militants After Checkpoint Attack That Killed 8 Policemen Islamist militants attacked a checkpoint in Egypt's restive northern part of the Sinai Peninsula on Wednesday, killing at least 8 policemen. The attack took place as Muslims in the city of el-Arish were holding prayers marking the holiday of Eid al-Fitr, which follows the holy month of Ramadan, early in the morning. The officials said the militants attacked the checkpoint seized an armored vehicle to make their getaway but a warplane chased them in the desert, killing at least five.

The Interior Ministry said in a statement that security forces have tracked down militants who escaped after that to an abandoned house in Masaeed neighbourhood in al-Arish. Egyptian security forces have killed a total of 19 militants suspected in the attack which ISIS claimed responsibility for.

Donald Trump Lavished with Royal Pomp and Pageantry on State Visit to UK Donald Trump and Queen Elizabeth hailed the bonds between the United States and the United Kingdom on Monday after the U.S. president was feted with a day of pomp designed to bolster an alliance strained by discord over Brexit and China. The three-day trip was cast as a chance to celebrate Britain’s “special

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relationship” with the United States, boost trade links in a post-Brexit world and reaffirm security cooperation ahead of the 75th anniversary of the allied D-Day landings in World War Two. In a news conference with Theresa May on Day 2 of his visit, Trump promised a "phenomenal" trade deal after the UK leaves the European Union, but added that "everything is on the table" - including the NHS. The last act of Mr Trump's visit to Britain before travelling to Ireland was a D-Day commemoration in Portsmouth. In Ireland, Trump met with Irish PM Leo Varadkar and told him that Americans “love the Irish” and said he believed things would work out well “with your wall, your border” after Brexit.

Trump then travelled to Doonbeg to stay at his golf resort.

World Leaders Honour Veterans at D-day Ceremony in Normandy, France France will never forget the sacrifice of the Allied troops who liberated it from Nazi Germany, President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday, the 75th anniversary of the D-Day operation that helped bring World War Two to an end. U.S. President

Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Theresa May joined Macron at separate ceremonies along a 80km (50 mile) stretch of Normandy coastline, where more than 150,000 soldiers landed on June ,6 1944, under a hail of German fire.

“We know what we owe to you, our veterans: our freedom. On behalf of my country, I want to say ‘thank you’,” Macron told several dozen American D-Day combatants at a U.S. war cemetery overlooking Omaha Beach, one of five landing spots in Normandy.

just as Czech police concluded investigations into whether he illegally received a 2 million euro EU subsidy for a farm and convention center a decade ago and recommended he face trial. Protesters fear a newly appointed justice minister could interfere in the case, now in prosecutors’ hands. Babis has denied wrongdoing, calling the case a political maneuver.

Millions of Pigs Culled Across Asia as Swine Fever Spreads

Biggest Czech Protest Since 1989 Calls for PM's Resignation Tens of thousands of Czechs hit the streets on Tuesday to demand the resignation of billionaire Prime Minister Andrej Babis over alleged conflicts of interest involving his former business empire and an investigation into a decade-old EU subsidy.

Organizers estimated 120,000 people protested on Prague’s central Wenceslas Square, making it one of the largest demonstrations since the Velvet Revolution ended Communist rule in 1989. Protests against Babis have swelled since the end of April

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South-east Asia is battling to contain the spread of highly contagious African swine fever, known as “pig Ebola”, which has already led to the culling of millions of pigs in China and Vietnam. African swine fever, which is harmless to humans but fatal to pigs, was discovered in China in August, where it has caused havoc, leading to more than 1.2m pigs being culled. Experts say region is losing the battle to stop the biggest animal disease outbreak the planet has ever faced. China is home to almost half of the world’s pigs and the news sent the global price of pork soaring.It has spread like wildfire across Asia, causing growing devastation to the pig farmers of Vietnam and Cambodia and putting Thailand, Asia’s second-biggest pork producer, on “red alert”. Cases have increased in Mongolia, North Korea and Hong Kong in recent weeks, while South Korea is blood testing pigs at the border.

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When Hezbollah Lost its Sacredness The Iran-Backed Group is No Longer the Liberator, the Protector and the Provider for the Shia Community

by Hanin Ghaddar For Hezbollah to establish itself as the strongest faction in Lebanon, and then transform into a regional arm for Iran, a strategy of popular support had to be carved. The Iranian regime

understood that without vast popular support and loyalty, Hezbollah will always be confronted with Lebanon’s shifting political dynamics and international pressure.

They also understood that this support base has to withstand regional and international storms, and

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Discontent increased when Hezbollah started facing a financial crisis, and started cutting many of its social services.

therefore be immune to criticism or accountability.

It has to be sacred, and unquestionable. Therefore, Iran helped Hezbollah by building its support base, centred on three main pillars, with a sacred component for each and every one of them.

HEZBOLLAH’S SACRED PILLARS OF SUPPORT The first and most important pillar is the resistance, which the Islamic State in Iran created, funded and organized. Before Hezbollah’s resistance, Lebanon did have its own national resistance that consisted of leftist and liberal groups who came together to form a national resistance front, with the simple goal of liberating the occupied parts of Lebanon. When Hezbollah realized that this front enjoyed the support and admiration of the vast majority of the Shia community in Lebanon, they started an assassination spree against its leadership, until they were weakened enough for Hezbollah to take over and claim the resistance as

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their own creation and cause.

Eventually, resistance became Hezbollah’s main brand and Iran’s gift to Lebanon. But this was not possible if it wasn’t accompanied by Iran’s willingness to throw major sums of money and weapons on Hezbollah’s new brand.

This is why the second pillar is equally important; that is, the social services and jobs. Hezbollah created hundreds of service institutions and started catering its services to all the Shia community – and sometimes beyond – telling the constituency that they not only there to liberate the land, but also to protect and provide.

Hezbollah became the main job provider for the Shia community, with jobs and benefits that no one else in Lebanon could provide, including the state.

Hezbollah came to the Shia community and said: Forget about the state and its institutions. They failed to liberate you. They failed to protect you.

And most importantly, they failed to provide for you. You do not have to be citizens of this state.

You are my children, and I am your father.

But that too was not enough to gain the desired sacredness. Both the resistance and the services needed to be tied to something bigger and further than Lebanon. It wasn’t difficult to elevate the resistance to the sacred level. That was already considered a noble cause by many people in Lebanon, mainly the Shia community that was mostly under Israeli occupation in the south of Lebanon. But separately, the resistance cannot hold on its own The two pillars had to be tied together with the third and most significant one – in Iran’s perspective; that is the Shia identity and its link to Wilayat Al Faqih in Iran. Because of the Wilayat al Faqih umbrella, Hezbollah’s resistance and services were now more tied to the Shia identity, with rhetoric and methodology that prioritized the Shia community. If you are a loyal Shia,

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who appreciate Iran’s fatherhood, Hezbollah will protect you, provide for you, and make sure that you are politically empowered and covered no matter how impertinent you are towards other Lebanese. The other Lebanese do not count. Only you – as a Shia citizen of Iran – count, and you will be guaranteed power and prosperity.

This worked magically. Many within the Shia community liked the idea of being part of something that is so much bigger than themselves and their inconsequential identities. They weren’t treated as citizens by their own state, so why not try another entity – or another identity. All they have to do is be loyal and appreciative.

Meanwhile, this loyalty - slowly but surely - morphed into sacredness. Refraining from criticizing Hezbollah’s Iranian affiliation or sectarian rhetoric, eventually allowed Hezbollah to take advantage of this trend and present itself as the most sacred entity for the Shia community.

Between their rhetoric of victory as a resistance movement, the generosity of Iran, and their image as the only party in Lebanon that hasn’t been tainted with the civil war and corruption, Hezbollah became the ideal movement – the sacred one.

HOW HEZBOLLAH LOST ITS SACREDNESS Unfortunately for Hezbollah, this image was shaken many times, and opportunities were brought into light.

It started to shake with the many reports and cases of corruption within its ranks. People started to

The weapons of the resistance transformed, yet again, and on a much bigger scale, into tools to silence and oppress Arab citizens, help dictators, and serve Iran’s regional agenda.

realize that Hezbollah officials and politicians are as corrupt as other political figures in Lebanon, and that they flaunt their wealth in front of other poor Shia. It is not difficult for the Shia to realize this when Hezbollah’s officials’ wives drive the most expensive cares and when their children go to the most expensive private schools and universities.

Hezbollah also was exposed to be dealing in prostitution, money laundering and drugs productions. And to make things worse, it turned out that Israel’s best spies were recruited from within Hezbollah’s ranks.

All these were hard to accept by the loyal and by then brainwashed Shia community. Many believed Hezbollah’s counter propaganda, and many made excuses for Hezbollah. It is not easy to go after your protector – or you “father” in the symbolic sense of the situation.

But Hezbollah was still tainted, and despite all the attempts to clean its slate, things were no longer the same, although the small criticism that started to emerge from within the Shia community didn’t

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Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Hezbollah’s image has changed, and the Shia community are no longer tied to it with a sacred thread that cannot be cut.

go to the public sphere.

Then came May 2008 ,7, when Hezbollah used its arms for the first time against other Lebanese.

Although the Shia community didn’t really oppose Hezbollah operations back then, many started to ask questions in private about Hezbollah’s real motives. The weapons were supposed to be used against Israel and to defend Lebanon, so what is Hezbollah really doing?

These questions amplified when the Shia community started to feel the isolation caused

by Hezbollah’s 2008 actions. And this isolation drastically increased when Hezbollah marched to Syria and the rest of the region and used its weapons against Syrian Sunnis and anti-regime groups.

The weapons of the resistance transformed, yet again, and on a much bigger scale, into tools to silence and oppress Arab citizens, help dictators, and serve Iran’s regional agenda.

What made it worse is that Hezbollah did not respond to any of the Israeli attacks against its positions in Syria. Israel did not spare Hezbollah and Iran in Syria and has been bombing their

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facilities for years, destroying almost half of it.

But Hezbollah decided to put the resistance on hold, and – despite their continuing anti-Israel Rhetoric – people understood that resistance is no longer a Hezbollah priority.

The first pillar cracked.

Discontent increased when Hezbollah started facing a financial crisis, and started cutting many of its social services. They first focused on providing for their fighters’ community to make sure this part of the community will not abandon them when the battle is still going on.

However, Hezbollah’s financial issues are becoming more challenging today and they had to cut half of the salaries of many fighters. Without the services, jobs and salaries, the second pillar also cracked.

All is left is the Shia identity and the ideological connection to Iran’s Wilayat al Faqih. However, this alone is not going to put food on the table, send the children to school, or provide a sense of security amidst fears of another war between Hezbollah and Israel. And with the deteriorating economic situation in Lebanon, people’s priorities have shifted, and financial security is becoming more important than ideologies and loyalties to abstract causes.

Hezbollah is no longer the liberator, the protector and the provider for the Shia community.

Hezbollah is no longer the father or the sacred umbrella that protects all its children.

Iran might recover from sanctions if the extreme pressure campaign changed with another administration, but in any case, Hezbollah’s image has changed, and the Shia community are no longer tied to it with a sacred thread that cannot be cut. If they are offered a sustainable and solid alternative, many would reconsider. *Hanin Ghaddar is the inaugural Friedmann Visiting Fellow at The Washington Institute.

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President Donald Trump walks toward journalists as he departs the White House for a campaign rally in Pennsylvania May 2019 ,20 in Washington, DC. (Getty)

Washington Signals Openness to Dialogue, but Tehran Rebuffs

President Trump’s Supporters and Opponents are Divided as to What Happens Next

by Joseph Braude After May’s spike in tensions between Tehran and Washington, American officials have begun to sound conciliatory notes — but Iran has so far rebuffed attempts to negotiate points of contention with the U.S., leaving President Trump’s supporters and opponents divided as to what should come next.

On June 2, while visiting Switzerland — a country that has served as a backchannel for communications

between Washington and Tehran — Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during a press conference that the U.S. would continue the maximum-pressure campaign against the Iranian regime. He also signaled a willingness to engage in negotiations without preconditions. “We’re ready to sit down with them,” he said, speaking alongside Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis in Bellinzona. “But the American effort to fundamentally reverse the malign activity of this Islamic republic, this revolutionary force, is going to continue.”

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Despite these gestures toward a more conciliatory posture toward Tehran, skepticism of Iranian intentions remains common among Democratic leaders.

According to recent reports, three former Obama administration officials who were closely involved in the negotiations over the JCPOA, including one who remains in contact with Iranian government officials, recently briefed congressional Democrats on Capitol Hill on how Iranian decision makers react to economic pressure. Mark Dubowitz, an Iran specialist at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies — generally supportive of the Trump administration’s efforts at containing Iranian influence — criticized these efforts as “wrongheaded.” He said that Democrats “would be wise to tell their Iranian counterparts to return to negotiations.”

Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA), seen speaking to the media following a campaign rally in Los Angeles. (Getty)

Tehran’s rebuke was not long in coming.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif denounced the continuation of the sanctions campaign as “economic terrorism” and told ABC’s Martha Raddatz that direct talks with President Trump were “not very likely because talking is the continuation of the process of pressure. He is imposing pressure. This may work in a real estate market. It does not work in dealing with Iran.”

The next day, Iran›s hardline Judiciary Chief Ebrahim Raeesi went further: «We see that U.S. officials are begging to hold talks with Iran. This proves Supreme Leader [Khamenei›s] insight and expertise.»

DEMOCRATS TRIANGULATE OPPOSITION TO TRUMP, IRAN Though generally critical of the Trump administration’s international posture, Democrats now manifest division over present Iran policies.

Five of the leading presidential candidates have declared their intention to return the United States to the JCPOA, including Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris.

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Despite these gestures toward a more conciliatory posture toward Tehran, skepticism of Iranian intentions remains common among Democratic leaders. Last week, Representative Seth Moulton, another Presidential hopeful, described Iran as “a major threat to our national security.” Senator Kirsten Gillibrand condemned Iranian “malign activities.”

Senator Cory Booker declared that the United States must “be more vigilant than ever in fighting Iranian aggression.”

Republicans Aligned with Administration Policy For their part, the Republican base remains supportive of the Trump administration’s policies toward Iran. Notably, during an ongoing Republican primary in North Carolina, both candidates deferred to the President on Iranian matters: Both Dr. Joan Perry and state representative Greg Perry, each seeking to represent the 3rd District in Congress, declared that they stood the administration. Dr. Perry said she believed Trump›s “misgivings were valid” about the JCPOA and that the U.S. should “cripple” Iran›s ability to fund regional proxies.

Greg Perry, for his part, said, “we can›t allow Iran to become a nuclear power.”

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Trump's Middle East Peace Plan Faces Major Challenges As Bahrain Economic Conference Looms, Pompeo Casts Doubt Amid Political Chaos in Israel

by Yasmine El-Geressi Following a long period of anticipation and repeated delays, US officials have announced that they will hold an economic workshop in Bahrain in late June as the first step in the

administration’s road map for peace between Israel and Palestine.

The conference, which will take place in the capital Manama, is aimed at offering a vision for investment in the the West Bank, Gaza, and neighbouring countries by focusing on four major components: infrastructure, industry, empowering and investing

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in people, and governance reforms to “develop the foundation of a prosperous future,” in the words of US President Donald Trump’s Middle East advisor and architect of the plan Jared Kushner. Trump’s son-in-law recently met with European, Moroccan, Jordanian and Israeli officials to discuss the secret plan and drum up support but while the details of the political component remain under wraps for now, the long-awaited plan has been faced with a wall of scepticism and the economic conference looks to be rendered ineffective.

U.S. President Donald Trump (R) with his son-in-law and Senior Advisor Jared Kushner in the Roosevelt Room at the White House January 2017 ,31 in Washington, DC.

A PALESTINIAN INVESTMENT CONFERENCE WITHOUT PALESTINIANS

In a raw assessment of the peace plan published by The Washington Post, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described it as “unexecutable”, saying that it “may be rejected” and that critics would call it “not particularly original”.

The idea for the “Palestinian investment conference” ran into trouble almost immediately after it was announced, with Palestinian business leaders and officials refusing to participate and calling on other Arab governments to do the same.

Palestinian officials, who see the administration as tilted in Israel’s favour, have refused to talk to the United States since it recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017 and relocated the US embassy from Tel Aviv - ending decades of US policy that the final status of the city would be agreed through peace talks.

The idea of promoting economic peace as a forerunner to addressing thorny political issues has a long history, dating back to the Reagan administration. But since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated his willingness to negotiate a twostate solution but called on Arab countries to cooperate with the Palestinians and Israel on achieving “economic peace” in the meantime, the term took a negative cast. Thus, sequencing the peace deal by putting potential investments ahead of political change, did not sit well with Palestinian leaders.

Soon after the announcement of the summit, the Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh immediately cast a cloud of doubt during a Palestinian cabinet meeting. “Any solution to the conflict in Palestine must be political… and based on ending the occupation,” he said. “The current financial crisis is a result of a financial war waged against us and we will not succumb to blackmailing and extortion and will not trade our national rights for money.”

Palestinian business organisations also declined the invitation.

The groups, which say they represent %80 of Palestinian gross domestic product, say the Palestinian economy will never grow to its full potential without a comprehensive political solution.

“Economic peace — regardless of how it is repackaged — has been tried by successive U.S. administrations and has failed every time precisely because freedom and sovereignty for Palestinians was lacking,” the organisations said in a written statement. Ibrahim Barham, head of one of the largest West Bank technology companies, said he wouldn’t attend because “there’s no clue to any solution.”

US officials say the Palestinians are doing themselves a disservice by not attending the conference, and that they are marginalising their own role. Jason D. Greenblatt, the Trump administration’s special representative for negotiations, said in a Twitter post that

a political component of the peace deal was coming. “We’ve been clear that the economic vision we present can’t exist without the political component, and the political component can’t succeed without the economic,” he wrote.

While the administration has failed to get buy-in from the Palestinian side, they have succeeded in engaging key Arab states, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE confirming their intention to attend the workshop while assuring the Palestinians they would not endorse a U.S. plan that fails to meet their demands.

The UAE has also reiterated its “support for the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital,” according to a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Saudi Arabia has said that it will send Minister of Economy and Planning Mohammed Al Tuwaijri.

Saudi Arabia reiterated its support for the Palestinian cause during the Saudi-hosted Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit held in Jeddah last month. Saudi King Salman told OIC countries that the Arab nations would not compromise on the Palestinian issue. "The Palestine cause is the cornerstone of the works of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and is the focus of our attention until the brotherly Palestinian people get their legitimate rights," Salman said. "We reaffirm our unequivocal rejection of any measures that would prejudice the historical and legal status of Quds (Jerusalem)," he added.

The leaders of the -56 Muslim-majority countries also said that they oppose any Middle East peace plan that favours Israel and undermines Palestinians and condemned countries that have made the “illegal and irresponsible decision” to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. "The Palestinian people have the right to achieve their inalienable national rights, including their right to self-determination and the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state," the OIC statement said.

The IMF, which has been operating in the West Bank and Gaza since 1995, has also confirmed that it and other global financial bodies would be present at the conference. The IMF and other lenders and development banks have long played a stabilising role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, providing loans, credit guarantees, and policy advice to the Western-backed Palestinian Authority (PA). The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) confirmed it would have “someone”

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representing it.

Israeli Deputy foreign minister Tzipi Hotovely said in a weekend radio interview “Israelis” would be there, but it was unclear if that was official delegates or private business representatives.

Asked if she believed the event should be postponed given it would be shunned by the Palestinians, Hotovely told Tel Aviv station 102 FM: “No. There is no reason to ... Apart from them, everyone’s okay. Everyone’s in favor.”

UNPRECEDENTED INSTABILITY IN ISRAEL While Israel has confirmed its intention to attend, any delegation will not be representing a stable, established government empowered to make deals. Following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failure to form a government in the wake of his April 9 election victory, Israeli politics has been thrown into disarray. Netanyahu was forced to call a new election scheduled for September 17, an unprecedented development even for the country’s infamously volatile political system. A senior US administration official said that the plan would be presented when the “timing is right” but that timing has grown increasingly problematic and the peace plan could be losing steam.

The Trump administration had previously decided against issuing the plan in the middle of an Israeli election campaign a few months ago and so the same logic may pertain as Netanyahu enters a new election campaign. Thus, the Trump administration will likely find itself stymied in any significant attempt to move forward with the political component of the peace effort until November which is the earliest there could be a government in place. In the interim, Netanyahu will likely be pulled further to the right by distancing himself from any potential concessions to the Palestinians to retain hold on power, amounting to a setback for Trump’s peace team. Furthermore, by November Trump will

While the administration has failed to get buy-in from the Palestinian side, they have succeeded in engaging key Arab states, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE confirming their intention to attend the workshop while assuring the Palestinians they would not endorse a plan that fails to meet their demands.

be in campaign mode as he enters the start of the primary season, a less than ideal time to put forth a peace plan.

As Israel has never held two consecutive elections so quickly, it is difficult to predict how the do-over will affect turnout but there is no guarantee that Netanyahu’s Trump friendly government will stay in power. And if he does emerge with a sixth election victory in September, he won’t be out of trouble: Just weeks after the vote, he is set to face a legal hearing with state prosecutors and then a final decision from Israel’s attorney general on whether to go ahead with a plan to indict the prime minister on corruption charges.

In the wake of Mr. Netanyahu’s setback, the chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, cracked that the “deal of the century,” as people have taken to calling the Trump plan, had become the “deal of the next century.”

Former U.S. ambassador to Israel between 2011 and 2017, told the Jewish Insider that "the Trump peace plan is on ice - maybe permanently”.

But Jonathan Schanzer, vice president at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who has worked closely with the Trump administration on Middle East policies and told the Washington Examiner that while the new developments in Israel complicate the process, a deal isn't dead-on-arrival. "It's not impossible, but extremely difficult because any agreement that Netanyahu might agree to would lack the support for the Israeli electorate," he said.

Some observers have also commented that the collapse of the

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (C) walks to a party meeting in the Knesset (Israeli parliament) building in Jerusalem on May 2019 ,29.

(Getty)

Israeli coalition talks may prove to a blessing in disguise as a delay in the deal’s release could buy the administration time to overcome some of the flaws that threaten to produce an ineffective plan while improving its diplomatic position as well as the situation on the ground. This could help the peace team to avoid landing the plan in the middle of an already volatile landscape as the situation on the ground itself is becoming increasingly unstable. Progress is being made toward an Egyptian-brokered truce in Gaza between Hamas and Israel after numerous rounds of fighting and a mounting death toll. Yet there are likely to be more flare-ups this summer. In the meantime, the humanitarian situation there remains on the precipice of collapse, demanding an immediate international response.

FROM “DEAL OF THE CENTURY” TO “WE’LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS” In a raw assessment of the peace plan published by The Washington Post, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described it as “unexecutable”, saying that it “may be rejected” and that critics would call it “not particularly original”. Pompeo, who said he believes he has seen “all the details of what we are going to roll out,” made his comments during an off-the-record meeting of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations. According to the Post, Pompeo demonstrated in the audio recording obtained by CNN a drastic change in tone when talking about the deal admitting that it “has taken us longer to roll out our plan than I had originally thought it might - to put it lightly,” and that there are “no guarantees that we’re the ones that unlock it.” In the most candid remarks yet from the Trump administration on the challenges facing the plan, Pompeo also said he could understand why many see the deal as one “only the Israelis could love” and said the US was also planning for failure,

While Israel has confirmed its intention to attend, any delegation will not be representing a stable, established government empowered to make deals. including in a scenario where Israel annexes parts of the West Bank - a move that many in the international community see as being the end of the possibility of a two-state solution and could create further unrest on the ground.

Reacting to Pompeo’s downbeat comments, Trump, who previously called the plan the “deal of the century” conceded that “he may be right.” But he did not completely dismiss the plan, adding: “when Mike says that, I understand when he says that, because most people think it can’t be done. I think it probably can. But as I say often, we’ll see what happens.”

Jared Kushner defended his plan in an interview with Axios website but sparked controversy by questioning whether the Palestinians were capable of governing themselves and suggesting it didn’t matter if the Palestinians trusted him. Asked whether the Palestinians were capable of governing themselves without Israeli interference, Mr Kushner said: “That’s a very good question. That’s one that we’ll have to see. The hope is that they, over time, will become capable of governing.” He also said “I’m not here to be trusted” when asked why the Palestinian leadership should trust him and other senior members of the peace team, who have longstanding links to the Israeli settlement movement.

Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh makes a speech as he leads the weekly cabinet meeting at the Prime Ministry building in Ramallah, West Bank on May 2019 ,06.

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Why Venezuela’s Regime Hasn’t Collapsed Guaidó and What Army?

By Laura Gamboa Gutiérrez* At dawn on April 30, Venezuelan opposition leaders Juan Guaidó and Leopoldo López appeared at a military base in Caracas and called on citizens and the military to begin the “final phase” of ousting President Nicolás Maduro.

Opposition leaders had called on citizens to rise

against the government before, but their decision to appeal directly to the military was seen as a game-changer. By sunset that same day, however, López and his family had sought refuge in the Spanish embassy and Guaidó had gone silent for several hours. It was all but certain that the attempted uprising had failed.

What happened? Some have suggested that

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Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro gestures as he speaks during a rally in front of Miraflores Presidential Palace in Caracas on May 2019 ,20. (Getty)

Guaidó, who has mounted a direct challenge to Maduro’s presidency since January, did not manage to project enough of a sense of confidence and inevitability for the uprising to gather momentum. Others have claimed that, forced by rumors that the government was going to issue an arrest warrant, Guaidó had jumped the gun and acted a day earlier than he and several military leaders had agreed on, spooking his allies in the armed forces. The truth, however, is more complex.

In order to get Maduro to step down and call for free and fair elections, Venezuela’s opposition must break up the military-civilian alliance that is keeping him in power. Getting there will require, first, that the military no longer benefits from supporting Maduro. With the support of international allies such as the United States, Guaidó has already made some progress on this front. Yet the military also needs credible guarantees that it won’t be prosecuted or penalized under a new regime—something that the opposition has failed to provide so far. Absent such a guarantee, it is unlikely that the military will turn on Venezuela’s dictator.

Transitions from authoritarian rule to democracy are by nature very uncertain. They require some kind of break in the ruling coalition together with moves by the opposition that make it easier for the government to step down than to hold on to power.

There are good reasons to hope that Venezuela is on the right track in this regard. The opposition, long subdued and riven by infighting, seems to have moved past previous missteps and tamed factional strife. In January, Guaidó, acting as head of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, swore himself in as interim president. Soon thereafter, the United States, Canada, most Latin American countries, and the European Union all recognized Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president. The move shifted the government opposition equilibrium that was established in 2016 and, for the first time since 2015, put the government in a defensive position.

To succeed in ousting Maduro, however, Guaidó will need to get the Venezuelan armed forces on his side. Maduro does not have the charisma of Hugo Chávez, who was the country’s president from 1999 until his death, in 2013, nor has he been able to benefit from the same oil windfall as

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Opposition leaders had called on citizens to rise against the government before, but their decision to appeal directly to the military was seen as a game-changer. his predecessor. Since coming to power, Maduro has overseen a country in crisis. Inflation is expected to reach ten million percent this year, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have fled the country, and the ones staying behind lack food and medicines. Unsurprisingly, Maduro is deeply unpopular, and he has relied on the military for his government’s survival. In exchange for suppressing popular discontent, the military has gotten control of PDVSA, Venezuela’s stateowned oil company, and used the government’s mantle of impunity to run and profit from drug trafficking and black-market trading. Highranking members in the armed forces continue siding with Maduro because they do not want to lose this revenue stream or face prosecution for corruption, drug trafficking, and human rights abuses such as the death of protesters, unjust imprisonment, and torture.

To change the generals’ calculus, the opposition has tried to reduce the benefits that the military derives from supporting the regime. Targeted international sanctions have been a big part of this process. By drawing attention to the situation in Venezuela and lobbying foreign governments, the opposition has gotten other countries to increase the pressure on Maduro. The U.S. Treasury Department, for example, has frozen the money of 88 Venezuelans as of May 10, including members of Maduro’s inner circle, such as General Vladimir Padrino, Venezuela’s defence minister.

The measures not only affect the material benefits of those who surround Maduro; they also remind them of their vulnerability to prosecution.

The opposition has also made it costlier for the military to keep supporting the regime by organizing peaceful demonstrations. The number of such protests has gone up dramatically in recent months, from around 700 from October to December 2018 to more than 6,000 in the first

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three months of 2019. The government, unwilling to respond to the protesters’ concerns, has resorted to repression, imprisoning activists and opposition leaders and at times even firing on protesters. This strategy can easily fail, since it might encourage the defections of officers who are reluctant to use violence against fellow citizens or who worry about facing human rights trials in the future.

Yet chipping away at Maduro’s military support is only half the equation. The opposition also needs to offer Maduro’s backers a way out. Venezuela’s generals would rather stay penniless but in power than step down and end up imprisoned.

Here is where amnesty and transitional justice mechanisms come in: the opposition needs to craft amnesty laws attractive enough for those in office to give up power and comprehensive enough that they will not be overturned by domestic or international courts in the future.

So far, attempts to do so have failed. Earlier this year, Venezuela’s National Assembly introduced a law promising amnesty to any bureaucrats and members of the armed forces who, in keeping with their constitutional duty, helped with the restitution of democracy in the country. Yet the bill has faced criticism by human rights organizations and victims of political repression and has not generated nearly enough defections to be effective.

Part of the problem is a lack of trust on both sides.

In exchange for suppressing popular discontent, the military has gotten control of PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, and used the government’s mantle of impunity to run and profit from drug trafficking and black-market trading.

There is ample evidence suggesting that low- and high-ranking members of the armed forces are ready to withdraw their support from Maduro.

The alleged backdoor deal between opposition and government officials ahead of the April 30 uprising indicates that opposition leaders and individuals close to the president could indeed come to an agreement. How to guarantee and enforce the terms of the deal, however, is a more complicated story. The opposition has a hard time trusting powerful regime insiders, since the latter have often just used negotiations with the opposition to buy time. Guaidó also needs to balance different factions inside the opposition, some of which are more willing to compromise with the regime than others.

Officials in the government and military, for their part, worry about what will happen once they have no leverage. Will the opposition renege on

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Venezuelan opposition leader and selfproclaimed interim president Juan Guaido points to supporters during a rally in Sabaneta, Barinas state, Venezuela on May ,31 2019. (Getty)

its promises and seek retribution, as it did during a short-lived coup in 2002 when the opposition briefly ousted then President Hugo Chávez with the help of the armed forces? At the time, the expectation was that, once in office, opposition leaders would abide by the constitution in appointing Chávez’s successor. Instead, Pedro Carmona, a business leader and a central opposition figure, swore himself in as president, ignoring the line of succession laid out by the constitution. During his two-day rule, Carmona suspended the constitution, shut down Parliament and the courts, impeached recently elected governors and mayors, and started persecuting former Chavistas. Today, Maduro loyalists fear a repeat of this scenario should they abandon the sitting president. Members of the armed forces and other government bodies are also unsure if they can trust each other once they defect: if all

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goes well, the government has to step down. If all goes wrong and government allies discover that they are dealing with the opposition, they are likely to end up dead or in jail.

Usually these credibility problems are solved by getting a neutral third party to act as guarantor.

A coalition of Latin American countries, for example, served as guarantor for democratic transitions in Central America during the 1990s.

Yet finding a set of countries or organizations that could serve that role in Venezuela has been complicated. The most suitable contenders, such as the Organization of American States and the Lima Group, a collection of 12 states committed to help Venezuela resolve its crisis, have already come out in support of Guaidó’s interim government. The ones that haven’t are either Maduro allies with questionable democratic credentials, such as Bolivia and Nicaragua, or have alienated the Venezuelan opposition, as Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador did when he invited Maduro to his inauguration in December. This week, Norway invited government and opposition delegates for talks, but the opposition remains sceptical.

Two previous attempts to negotiate with the government in 2016 and 2017, the latter hosted by the Dominican Republic, simply allowed the Maduro regime to stall, failed to produce meaningful results, and sapped the opposition of its momentum.

In other words, Guaidó and his allies appear to have made little headway. Not all is lost, however. Transitions to democracy are often uneven and nonlinear. The failure of last month’s uprising does not mean that Maduro will last forever. In fact, seeing how close the opposition got to toppling him might have made Maduro more willing to engage in a meaningful dialogue in Norway. Until that happens, however, the unforgiving logic of regime change will continue to compel his military backers to stand by him— at least for now. * LAURA GAMBOA GUTIÉRREZ is Assistant Professor at Utah State University. Her research focuses on political institutions and regime change in Latin America.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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The New Revolution in Military Affairs War’s Sci-Fi Future

by Christian Brose In 1898, a Polish banker and self-taught military expert named Jan Bloch published The Future of War, the culmination of his long obsession with the impact of modern technology on warfare. Bloch foresaw with stunning prescience how smokeless

gunpowder, improved rifles, and other emerging technologies would overturn contemporary thinking about the character and conduct of war. (Bloch also got one major thing wrong: he thought the sheer carnage of modern combat would be so horrific that war would “become impossible.”)

What Bloch anticipated has come to be known as a “revolution

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The traditional model of U.S. military power is being disrupted, the way Blockbuster’s business model was amid the rise of Amazon and Netflix. have appeared while the United States has been fighting lesser opponents for almost three decades.

Yet if ever there were a time to get serious about the coming revolution in military affairs, it is now. There is an emerging consensus that the United States’ top defense-planning priority should be contending with great powers with advanced militaries, primarily China, and that new technologies, once intriguing but speculative, are now both real and essential to future military advantage. Senior military leaders and defense experts are also starting to agree, albeit belatedly, that when it comes to these threats, the United States is falling dangerously behind.

H7- stealth unmanned reconnaissance aircraft stands on static display on day two of the Airshow China 2018 on November 2018 ,7 in Zhuhai, Guangdong Province of China.

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in military affairs”—the emergence of technologies so disruptive that they overtake existing military concepts and capabilities and necessitate a rethinking of how, with what, and by whom war is waged. Such a revolution is unfolding today. Artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, ubiquitous sensors, advanced manufacturing, and quantum science will transform warfare as radically as the technologies that consumed Bloch. And yet the U.S. government’s thinking about how to employ these new technologies is not keeping pace with their development.

The idea of a future military revolution became discredited amid nearly two decades of war after 2001 and has been further damaged by reductions in defense spending since 2011. But along the way, the United States has also squandered hundreds of billions of dollars trying to modernize in the wrong ways. Instead of thinking systematically about buying faster, more effective kill chains that could be built now, Washington poured money into newer versions of old military platforms and prayed for technological miracles to come (which often became acquisition debacles when those miracles did not materialize). The result is that U.S. battle networks are not nearly as fast or effective as they

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It is still possible for the United States to adapt and succeed, but the scale of change required is enormous. The traditional model of U.S. military power is being disrupted, the way Blockbuster’s business model was amid the rise of Amazon and Netflix. A military made up of small numbers of large, expensive, heavily manned, and hard-to-replace systems will not survive on future battlefields, where swarms of intelligent machines will deliver violence at a greater volume and higher velocity than ever before.

Success will require a different kind of military, one built around large numbers of small, inexpensive, expendable, and highly autonomous systems. The United States has the money, human capital, and technology to assemble that kind of military. The question is whether it has the imagination and the resolve.

NEW TECHNOLOGIES, OLD PROBLEMS Artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies will change the way war is fought, but they will not change its nature.

Whether it involves longbows or source code, war will always be violent, politically motivated, and composed of the same three elemental functions that new recruits learn in basic training: move, shoot, and communicate.

Movement in warfare entails hiding and seeking (attackers try to evade detection; defenders try to detect them) and penetrating and repelling (attackers try to enter opponents’ space; defenders try to deny them access). But in a world that is becoming one giant sensor, hiding and penetrating—never easy in warfare—will be far more difficult, if not impossible.

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The amount of data generated by networked devices, the socalled Internet of Things, is on pace to triple between 2016 and 2021. More significant, the proliferation of low-cost, commercial sensors that can detect more things more clearly over greater distances is already providing more real-time global surveillance than has existed at any time in history.

This is especially true in space. In the past, the high costs of launching satellites required them to be large, expensive, and designed to orbit for decades. But as access to space gets cheaper, satellites are becoming more like mobile phones— mass-produced devices that are used for a few years and then replaced. Commercial space companies are already fielding hundreds of small, cheap satellites. Soon, there will be thousands of such satellites, providing an unblinking eye over the entire world. Stealth technology is living on borrowed time.

On top of all of that, quantum sensors—which use the bizarre properties of subatomic particles, such as their ability to be in two different places at once—will eventually be able detect disruptions in the environment, such as the displacement of air around aircraft or water around submarines. Quantum sensors will likely be the first usable application of quantum science, and this technology is still many years off. But once quantum sensors are fielded, there will be nowhere to hide.

The future of movement will also be characterized by a return of mass to the battlefield, after many decades in which the trend was moving in the opposite direction—toward an emphasis on quality over quantity—as technology is enabling more systems to get in motion and stay in motion in more places. Ubiquitous sensors will generate exponentially greater quantities of data, which in turn will drive both the development and the deployment of artificial intelligence. As machines become more autonomous, militaries will be able to field more of them in smaller sizes and at lower costs. New developments in power generation and storage and in hypersonic propulsion will allow these smaller systems to travel farther and faster than ever. Where once there was one destroyer, for example, the near future could see dozens of autonomous vessels that are similar to missile barges, ready to strike as targets emerge.

Although this new technology will present ethical dilemmas, it will also help resolve them.

Technology will also transform how those systems remain in motion. Logistics—the ability to supply forces with food, fuel, and replacements—has traditionally been the limiting factor in war. But autonomous militaries will need less fuel and no food.

Advanced manufacturing methods, such as -3D printing, will reduce the need for vast, risky, and expensive military logistics networks by enabling the production of complicated goods at the point of demand quickly, cheaply, and easily.

In an even more profound change, space will emerge as its own domain of maneuver warfare. So far, the near impossibility of refueling spacecraft has largely limited them to orbiting the earth. But as it becomes feasible to not just refuel spacecraft midflight but also build and service satellites in space, process data in orbit, and capture resources and energy in space for use in space (for example, by using vast solar arrays or mining asteroids), space operations will become less dependent on earth. Spacecraft will be able to maneuver and fight, and the first orbital weapons could enter the battlefield. The technology to do much of this exists already.

THE MILITARIES OF TOMORROW Technology will also radically alter how militaries shoot, both literally and figuratively. Cyberattacks, communication jamming,

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In this handout released by the U.S. Navy, Sailors move an X47-B Unmanned Combat Air System (UCAS) demonstrator onto an aircraft elevator aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush(Getty)

Finally, the way militaries communicate will change drastically.

Traditional communications networks—hub-and-spoke structures with vulnerable single points of failure—will not survive.

Instead, technology will push vital communications functions to the edge of the network. Every autonomous system will be able to process and make sense of the information it gathers on its own, without relying on a command hub. This will enable the creation of radically distributed networks that are resilient and reconfigurable.

Put together, all these technologies will displace decades-old, even centuries-old, assumptions about how militaries operate.

The militaries that embrace and adapt to these technologies will dominate those that do not. In that regard, the U.S. military is in big trouble.

THE FUTURE IS HERE The United States is still betting that by incrementally upgrading its traditional military systems, it can remain dominant for decades to come. This approach might buy time, but it will not allow the U.S. military to regain superiority over its rivals. Doubling down on the status quo is exactly what Washington’s competitors want it to do: if the U.S. government spends more money in the same ways and on the same things, it will simply build more targets for its competitors while bankrupting itself. electronic warfare, and other attacks on a system’s software will become as important as those that target a system’s hardware, if not more so. The rate of fire, or how fast weapons can shoot, will accelerate rapidly thanks to new technologies such as lasers, high-powered microwaves, and other directed-energy weapons.

But what will really increase the rate of fire are intelligent systems that will radically reduce the time between when targets can be identified and when they can be attacked. A harbinger of this much nastier future battlefield has played out in Ukraine since 2014, where Russia has shortened to mere minutes the time between when their spotter drones first detect Ukrainian forces and when their precision rocket artillery wipes those forces off the map.

The militaries of the future will also be able to shoot farther than those of today. Eventually, hypersonic munitions (weapons that travel at more than five times the speed of sound) and spacebased weapons will be able to strike targets anywhere in the world nearly instantly. Militaries will be able to attack domains once assumed to be sanctuaries, such as space and logistics networks.

There will be no rear areas or safe havens anymore. Swarms of autonomous systems will not only be able to find targets everywhere; they will also be able to shoot them accurately. The ability to have both quantity and quality in military systems will have devastating effects, especially as technology makes lethal payloads smaller.

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It’s time to think differently, and U.S. defense planners should start by adopting more realistic assumptions. They should assume that U.S. forces will fight in highly contested environments against technologically advanced opponents, that they will be unlikely to avoid detection in any domain, and that they will lose large numbers of military systems in combat. Washington must also banish the idea that the goal of military modernization is simply to replace the military platforms it has relied on for decades, such as fighter jets and aircraft carriers, with better versions of the same things. It must focus instead on how to buy systems that can be combined into networks or kill chains to achieve particular military outcomes, such as air superiority or control of the seas.

Finally, the old belief that software merely supports hardware must be inverted: future militaries will be distinguished by the quality of their software, especially their artificial intelligence.

What would a military built on those assumptions look like?

First, it would have large quantities of smaller systems: swarms of intelligent machines that distribute sensing, movement, shooting, and communications away from vulnerable single points of failure and out to the edges of vast, dispersed networks. Such an approach would impose costs on competitors, as they would no longer be able to concentrate on a few big targets and would instead need to target many things over larger spaces.

Second, those systems would be cheap and expendable, which

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would make it easier to endure large-scale losses in combat. If it takes the United States’ competitors more time and money to destroy U.S. systems than it does for the United States to replace those systems, the United Stateswill win over time.

Finally, these systems would be unmanned and autonomous to the extent that is ethically acceptable. Keeping humans alive, safe, and comfortable inside machines is expensive—and no one wants to pay the ultimate price of lost human life. Autonomous systems are cheaper to field and cheaper to lose. They can also free humans from doing work that machines can do better, such as processing raw sensor data or allocating tasks among military systems. Liberating people from such work will prove crucial for managing the volume and velocity of the modern battlefield, but also for enabling people to focus more energy on making moral decisions about the intended outcomes of warfare. In this way, greater autonomy can not only enhance military effectiveness; it can also allow more humans to pay more attention to the ethics of war than ever before.

A FAILURE OF IMAGINATION Military modernization of this kind will not happen all at once.

Autonomous systems may rely on legacy systems, including aircraft carriers, for some time to come. But even this will require significant changes to how traditional systems are configured and operated. Some leaders in Congress and the executive branch want to embrace these changes, which is encouraging. But if this transition fails—and the odds of that are unsettlingly high—it will likely fail for reasons other than the ethical opposition that is the focus of current debates, which seeks to “ban killer robots” or ensure that commercial technology companies do nothing to benefit the U.S. military.

There are serious ethical concerns. The military use of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence requires sober debate, but that debate should not be reduced to a binary decision between human and machine control. If framed clearly, many

The militaries that embrace and adapt to these technologies will dominate those that do not. In that regard, the U.S. military is in big trouble.

of the technological and moral questions facing policymakers can be answered within the confines of existing law and practice.

For example, the legal concept of “areas of active hostilities,” in which the threshold for using violence is reduced in limited geographic areas, could provide useful answers to the moral dilemmas posed by lethal autonomous weapons.

The real challenge facing policymakers is how to imbue intelligent machines with human intent, and that is not a new problem. And although this new technology will present ethical dilemmas, it will also help resolve them. Autonomous systems will enable humans to spend less time on menial problems and more time on moral ones. Intelligent machines will likely become more capable of differentiating between, say, tanks and other vehicles, than a scared -19year-old is.

Americans will naturally be apprehensive about trusting machines to perform what have traditionally been human tasks. But the greater danger right now is that Americans will move too slowly and not be trusting enough, especially as China and Russia are proceeding with fewer ethical concerns than the United States. Unless Washington is willing to unilaterally cede that advantage to its rivals, it cannot allow

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itself to become paralyzed by the wrong questions.

don’t know what to do about it.

Bureaucrats who derive power from their mastery of the current system are loath to alter it. Military pilots and ship drivers are no more eager to lose their jobs to intelligent machines than factory workers are. Defense companies that make billions selling traditional systems are as welcoming of disruptions to their business model as the taxi cab industry has been of Uber and Lyft. And as all this resistance inevitably translates into disgruntled constituents, members of Congress will have enormous incentives to stymie change.

This points to a broader problem: a fundamental lack of imagination. U.S. leaders simply do not believe that the United States could be displaced as the world’s preeminent military power, not in the distant future but very soon. They do not have the vision or the sense of urgency needed to alter the status quo.

If that attitude prevails, change could come not from a concerted plan but as a result of a catastrophic failure, such as an American defeat in a major war. By then, however, it will probably be too late to alter course. The revolution in military affairs will have been not a trend that the United States used to deter war and buttress peace but a cause of the United States’ destruction.

Overcoming these obstacles will require leadership at the highest levels of government to set clear priorities, drive change in resistant institutions, remake their incentive structures, and recast their cultures. That may be too much to expect, especially amid Washington’s current political turmoil. There are many capable, well-intentioned leaders in the Pentagon, Congress, and the private sector who know that the U.S. defense program needs to change. But too often, the leaders who understand the problem the best lack the power to address it at the scale required, while those with the most power either don’t understand the problem or

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CHRISTIAN BROSE is Head of Strategy at Anduril Industries, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the author of a forthcoming book on the future of warfare. He was formerly Staff Director of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee. This article is adapted from a paper presented to the Aspen Strategy Group in August 2018.

This article was originally published in Foreign Affairs

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For Rohingya Refugees, There’s No Return in Sight

Why They Remain Stuck in Bangladesh

By Meenakshi Ganguly*and Brad Adams* The Rohingya Muslims have faced persecution in Myanmar for decades. And yet no violence in their recent history has compared to that which the Myanmar military inflicted in August 2017. After militants from the Arakan

Rohingya Salvation Army attacked police and army posts in northwestern Rakhine State on August 25, the military responded by killing thousands of Rohingya civilians, raping hundreds of Rohingya women and girls, and burning entire villages to the ground. In the course of a little more than three months, more than 700,000 Rohingya were forced to flee for

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their lives to Bangladesh. Myanmar authorities claimed they had conducted a “clearance operation” to rid the country of militants. In reality, they were fulfilling a long-standing dream of Myanmar’s Buddhist nationalists: the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya Muslims.

The refugees joined hundreds of thousands of Rohingya who were already in Bangladesh seeking refuge after previous attacks, bringing the total to 1.2 million. Today, more Rohingya live as refugees than remain in Myanmar.

Bangladesh and humanitarian organizations are struggling to provide for the needs of refugees, while Myanmar refuses to take the steps necessary to ensure the safe and voluntary return of the Rohingya to their homes in Rakhine State.

International attention to the plight of the Rohingya has waned, even as the Myanmar military continues to terrorize those who remain in Rakhine State. Many Rohingya in the camps in Bangladesh say that they fear they will soon be forgotten.

China and Russia have thus far blocked UN Security Council action to hold the Myanmar military accountable for these atrocities, but the United States and other Security Council members are not doing enough to secure justice. The Rohingya will not be returning to Myanmar anytime soon, so for the foreseeable future the camps in Bangladesh will be their only home. The Bangladesh government should do everything in its power to make the camps more liveable, while donors should provide sufficient aid to ease the burden on Bangladesh.

LIFE IN LIMBO

UN special Rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar Yanghee Lee holds a joint press conference with Rohingyas in Geneva, Switzerland on March 2019 ,11.

(Getty)

Rohingya refugees have fled to Bangladesh for decades.

Violence in the 1990s, 2012, and 2016 caused major refugee flows. Before 2017, the Bangladeshi government periodically pushed back refugees and sought to block international humanitarian groups from providing services to them. But this changed with the huge influx in August 2017. Public opinion in Bangladesh sympathized with the Rohingya, with many groups organizing volunteer efforts to assist them. The government responded to the public mood by adopting a more welcoming policy. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina promised to share food and other resources with the beleaguered community, leading the local authorities in Cox’s Bazar, the largest city near the camps, to erect posters and billboards proclaiming her the “Mother of Humanity.”

But in September 2018, one year into the crisis, Sheikh Hasina said that Bangladesh could not afford to permanently absorb the refugees. In March 2019, Bangladesh’s foreign secretary, Shahidul Haque, told the Security Council that the country “could no longer… accommodate more people from Myanmar.” The government’s initial response was predicated on the expectation that the Rohingya would be short-term guests. It hoped that the threat of sanctions and international justice would persuade the Myanmar authorities to create the conditions that would allow the Rohingya to be able to return to their homes.

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Myanmar authorities claimed they had conducted a “clearance operation” to rid the country of militants. In reality, they were fulfilling a long-standing dream of Myanmar’s Buddhist nationalists: the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya Muslims.

The situation for the Rohingya in Bangladesh is dire. Crammed into crowded camps, refugees increasingly suffer from crime and violent disputes. They are not allowed to move around the country freely, and their access to employment, education, and other social services is heavily restricted. Human Rights Watch has found that since January 2019, authorities have expelled Rohingya refugee children from schools because they are not Bangladeshi citizens. The future hardly looks bright for the refugees in the camps.

Bangladesh has proposed only one solution to this overcrowding, and it is unacceptable: Dhaka has offered to relocate at least 100,000 Rohingya to a silt riverine island in the Bay of Bengal called Bhasan Char. Many experts and international donors fear that refugees on the island would be at risk from cyclones and tidal waves. Bangladeshi officials claim that the island has been secured with embankments, and that the homes and cyclone shelters there are better than anything available to millions of Bangladeshis. Even if this is true, there remains the question of the refugees’ rights: Bangladesh insists that relocation will be voluntary but has yet to explain how it intends to persuade 100,000 Rohingya to move to this de facto prison island where they will be cut off from the rest of their community and the wider world.

Officials have not provided convincing assurances that the refugees on the island would be free to move around and earn livelihoods.

Sending refugees back to Myanmar is also clearly not an option. In November 2017, China—eager to play kingmaker in its backyard and looking to prevent outside intervention in the region—brokered a repatriation agreement between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Myanmar agreed to accept 1500 “properly verified” refugees per week in temporary shelters, which were ringed with barbed wire and guarded by police and military. But when authorities sent buses to the camps to transport the refugees back over the border, not a single refugee volunteered to go.

The Rohingya don’t trust Myanmar’s leaders—and with good

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reason. As one refugee told Human Rights Watch, “They will kill us if we go back.” According to the September, 2018 report of a UN fact-finding mission, the Rohingya will be safe only when Myanmar’s leaders investigate and prosecute the country’s military chief and other leaders for genocide and crimes against humanity in Rakhine State, as well as for war crimes in other areas of Myanmar. But despite the overwhelming evidence, Myanmar’s leaders, including the Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, refuse to take any steps toward bringing these people to justice. Rather, in an attempt to buy time, they have so far responded to calls for accountability with repeated domestic inquiries, all of which have whitewashed atrocities and absolved those responsible of wrongdoing. Myanmar continues to defy international law by denying the Rohingya equal access to citizenship. Its leaders even refuse to use the term “Rohingya,” expecting interlocutors, including diplomats and UN officials, to share in the erasure of the community’s proclaimed identity even while discussing that very community’s rights.

Although Bangladesh continues to participate in the repatriation negotiations, officials privately doubt Myanmar’s commitment. “They assured me several times that they will start to take back Rohingyas,” Bangladesh Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. A. K. Abdul Momen said in a briefing with journalists, but “the atmosphere for safe repatriation of Rohingyas inside Myanmar has not been created yet.”

Bangladesh has proposed internationally monitored safe zones for the returning Rohingya, but Myanmar rejects the kinds of foreign presence that would provide real safety for returnees.

Rohingya rightly fear violence upon return or that they would end up in the kind of de facto military-run detention camps that an estimated 125,000 Rohingya have been confined to in central Rakhine State since a wave of military-backed violence there in 2012.

In order to lessen the displeasure of the international community, Myanmar’s leaders will probably continue publicly to insist that they are ready to welcome back the

Last September, a panel of judges from the International Criminal Court confirmed that the court could assert jurisdiction over Myanmar officials who forced Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh.

refugees. But this is just rhetoric. Their goal was to force Rohingya from the country and they have largely succeeded.

There is little reason to believe that they intend to allow the Rohingya to return safely and permanently to their homes. The government has bulldozed villages in the ethnically cleansed areas and is now rapidly “developing” them, constructing new housing and other structures for the area’s Buddhist population. UN officials have expressed concern that this socalled development is intended to cover up Myanmar’s crimes and erase the Rohingya from northern Rakhine.

A TIME TO ACT The international community has taken small steps toward pushing for accountability in Myanmar. Last September, a panel of judges from the International Criminal Court

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Rohingya refugees come to see Angelina Jolie US actress and humanitarian a special ambassador for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (Getty)

confirmed that the court could assert jurisdiction over Myanmar officials who forced Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh.

Deportation qualifies as a crime against humanity, which falls within the court’s purview, the panel determined.

The prosecutor is now deciding whether to seek a formal investigation. Also in September, the UN Human Rights Council created an independent international commission that would gather and preserve evidence of crimes against the Rohingyafor future prosecution.

Some governments, too, have applied pressure. The United States, Canada, and the European Union have imposed sanctions on some members of the Myanmar military responsible for the 2017 atrocities. The European Union is considering a formal review of Myanmar’s access to the EU market under its Everything But Arms (EBA) program, which gives tariff-free access in exchange for commitments to

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uphold basic human rights standards. Malaysia and Indonesia, which have long endorsed the doctrine of “non-interference in the internal affairs” of other states, have publicly called on Myanmar to change course.

Myanmar will only budge, however, if the costs of continued defiance become too high to bear. Aung San Suu Kyi and Myanmar’s military need to be shown that their intransigence could lead to economic, diplomatic, and political disaster.

The Rohingya cannot be forced to wait any longer in what Yanghee Lee, the UN Special Rapporteur on Myanmar, called in March “the purgatory of international inaction.” *MEENAKSHI GANGULY is South Asia Director at Human Rights Watch. *BRAD ADAMS is Asia Director at Human Rights Watch.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

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The UN’s Bleak Predictions on Climate Change The Global Disaster Threatens all Our Futures Cairo-Khaled Makhlouf In recent years, climate change has soared to unprecedented levels and has been the primary driving force behind rising temperatures around the world. Climate change has also caused a number of natural disasters as more countries are facing life-threatening floods. The United Nations Climate

Action Summit is set to be held in September 2019 at New York. The UN has called on all member states to participate in the summit and discuss a number of different issues surrounding climate change such as heavy industry, energy production and the cities most threatened by the phenomenon.

Participating countries, especially the major industrialized ones, will present their views on climate change and what they will do in the coming years to tackle it.

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The World Bank also warned that low coastal areas in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are likely to greatly suffer from rising sea levels since their average temperatures started rising. Additionally, rising temperatures have led to melting ice caps and increasing droughts which will surely pose a risk to our future generations. The UN further warned that receding ice caps are leading to rising sea levels. Some reports have indicated that sea levels are expected to rise by 24 to 30 cm in the year 2065, and this problem will only worsen as levels are set to increase by 43 to 60 cm in the year 2100.

To prevent such disasters from happening, the world will need to adopt rapid and long-term changes in the industry, energy, city development, and transportation. There is presently the ambitious goal of reaching ‘net zero’ carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, but this cannot be achieved unless carbon dioxide emissions fall to around %45 from 2010 levels by 2030.

WARNINGS FROM OTHER INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS A CRITICAL CRISIS The UN has reiterated that it considers climate change one of the world’s most critical and sensitive issues as it has caused a number of global disasters. For one thing, rising global temperatures have threatened the world’s food production; moreover, rising sea levels have caused many floods around the world, particularly in Asia, Africa, and the Americas which in turn has displaced thousands of people out of their homes. All these disasters will only increase in the future and the only way to stop them is if the world tackles the root causes of climate change. Furthermore, as they are the greatest contributors to climate change, developed states must collectively take unprecedented actions against this global catastrophe.

THE UN’S WARNING SIGNALS According to the UN, if immediate action is not taken, then the world’s major ecosystems will face a point of no return as reversing the effects of climate change will be close to impossible. As a matter of fact, both the Amazon Rainforest and the North Pole have undergone radical changes ever

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The World Bank has recently stated that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is one of the regions most at risk from rising sea levels, it further predicted that sea levels would likely rise by 0.5 meters in the year 2099. The World Bank also warned that low coastal areas in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are likely to greatly suffer from rising sea levels, especially those in Egypt. The World Economic Forum has also issued a report on speaking on traditionally dry areas that have been suffering from constant floods, for instance, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia has been enduring floods since the 1960s due to freak storms. The report also noted of the heatwaves that the region has been facing in recent years, as temperatures have risen to 54 °C in some countries. These heatwaves have caused devastating droughts, the likes of which the region hasn’t experienced in decades.

The World Bank, which spends $ 1.5 billion to fight climate change in the region, has estimated that 80 to 100 million people in MENA will be exposed to water shortages. The organization has also predicted that average temperatures in the region will be °4C higher by the year 2050, moreover by the end of the century day temperatures might be as high as 50 °C. All these predictions indicate how imperative it is for the region to tackle rising temperatures.

Last year, a climate summit was held in Poland where 200 attending countries agreed to the rules for implementing the

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2015 Paris Climate Agreement. After a series of talks, the attending states put behind their political differences and agreed to do what they could to prevent global temperatures from rising by more than 2 °C above preindustrial levels.

Furthermore, some countries tried to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement in spite of many reservations other countries had over many of its terms.

HUMAN CONTRIBUTION TO THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT Industrial activities, deforestation, and rapid cultivation have led to an increase in greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere. The reason why this poses a threat to Earth is that such gases prevent some of the sun’s energy from returning back to space thus increasing the globe’s temperatures. It should be noted that these gases are actually necessary for the survival of humans and other living organisms since they help maintain some of the sun’s warmth and as a result make Earth suitable for living. However, mass industrialization and modern living habits have caused a massive increase in these gases which in turn have been trapping hazardous levels of solar energy within Earth’s atmosphere.

Many countries have taken the initiative of reducing the greenhouse effect and some Arab countries have taken crucial first steps in preventing its dangers. For instance, a number of Arab countries have started utilizing renewable energy, such as solar energy and wind energy, in agriculture, industry, and electricity. Furthermore, some countries have modified their spray or drip irrigation systems as an alternative to traditional irrigation methods. The use of electric cars, which greatly reduce carbon emissions and harmful gases, has also become more widespread in some countries.

THE REALITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE In an interview with Majalla, Dr. Ayman Farid AbouHadid, Egypt’s agricultural minister and the former head of Egypt’s Environmental Affairs Agency, has emphasized the

The Amazon Rainforest and the North Pole have undergone radical changes ever since their average temperatures started rising.

undeniable reality of climate change, regardless of whether or not it has slowed down: “There are experts that claim that the climate is rapidly changing, while others are of the opinion that climate change is slowing down. But it is evident that climate change is real and human activity and consumption has accelerated this phenomenon by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Dr. Ayman Abou-Hadid also stated that “Climate change has been happening on this planet since its inception, as the planet has endured three ice ages and periods of rainy ages have come between them.” He also noted that past periods of climate change had certain “pace” to them, and the fact that emissions have accelerated this period’s climate change has raised questions on the impact of human activity on the process.

THREATS TO THE MIDDLE EAST Regarding the threats that climate change poses on the Middle East and what governments in the region are doing to handle it, Dr. Ayman Abou-Hadid noted that this region is one of the most susceptible ones to climate change. Climate change has had negative impacts on the region as it led to rain scarcity

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and rising temperatures. Furthermore, there are many areas in the region that are highly vulnerable to rising sea levels.

He then said that each country is preparing for the impact in different ways, for instance, Egypt and the Gulf States have exerted a lot of effort into improving agricultural and irrigation methods. These countries are also trying to not increase their uses of substances that cause gas emissions.

The effectiveness of such attempts cannot be determined at this present time.

THE PARIS AGREEMENT The 2015 Paris Agreement is one of the most crucial international accords regarding climate change. The agreement stated that all signing countries would implement every measure possible to ensure a future of significantly reduced global carbon emissions. The agreement also stated that all nations should cooperate to solve this crisis and emphasized the need to help developing states reduce their contributions to climate change. The agreement also has the goal of preventing average global temperatures from rising above °2C as well as reducing temperatures by 1.5 °C by the

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100 million people in the Middle East and North Africa will be exposed to water shortages. end of the century. The United States is currently the largest contributor to climate change and despite the fact that its oceans make it more vulnerable, the US hasn’t done enough to reduce its emissions. On the other hand, the European Union contributes to only 7.8 percent of global emissions and is encouraging measures to decrease greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Moreover, EU countries have sought to move towards renewable sources of energy to conserve their environments. Many industries in Asia have also taken to relying on cleaner renewable energy sources and using new technology such as electric cars. As such, many states in the Middle East have followed Europe and Asia’s lead.

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Armies, Gold, Flags- and Stories

What Game of Thrones Has Taught Us About Pop Culture and Foreign Affairs

by Charli Carpenter The eight-year-long cultural phenomenon of HBO’s Game of Thrones culminated on May 18 with the fiery destruction of the Iron Throne and the death of the formerly beloved Queen Daenerys. The show’s final season has produced an explosion of commentary on

what it all means. What is the appropriate basis for political authority? Can Daenerys be both a feminist hero and a war criminal? Does might make right?

Should it, in a time of war?

Among the foreign-policy intelligentsia, and society broadly, interpreting Game of Thrones (and the book series by George R. R. Martin that the show

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If Game of Thrones teaches us that stories matter, then the foreign affairs community should take political fiction seriously- not as fans and literary critics but as political analysts.

At a screening of the final episode of Game of Thrones in Moscow, Russia, May 2019.

(Getty)

is based on) has become a cottage industry. Every political analyst, historian, or theorist has his or her take on what lessons can be drawn from the story for real-world foreign policy. This enthusiasm tells us something about the show’s political implications: fans and writers argue over Game of Thrones precisely because there is power in interpreting a story to support one’s own arguments about what is right and who gets to choose.

In 2012, I joined this fray, arguing in these pages that the overall narrative arc of Game of Thrones favored a constructivist rather than a realist view of global politics, in that it disrupted stale formulas, privileged the marginalized, and taught that power hinges on attention to justice. The series’ denouement largely confirms this reading. Those left standing can

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include women, cripples, bastards, and “cowards.”

Meaningful and necessary institutional changes can arise from global collective action. Brute force cannot win the day in the absence of ethical restraint.

Above all, Game of Thrones contains a still deeper constructivist message about the power of narrative to lead or mislead. Tyrion’s message to the elites of Westeros in the season finale sums up this lesson of the show: “What is it that unites people? Armies?

Gold? Flags?” The realist answer to Tyrion’s question would have been armies: war makes nations and nations make war. But that claim is refuted time and again throughout this series. The liberal answer would have been gold, but that argument gets short shrift, despite terrific cameos by Bronn and the Iron Bankers. The shallow constructivist would have emphasized flags, along with other symbols, norms, and slogans, but those ultimately did more to dress up Game of Thrones than to drive its plot.

Tyrion’s answer, however, is that “there’s nothing in the world more powerful than a good story.” His argument draws on a deeper critical constructivism that emphasizes the productive power of political narrative. Storytelling, a critical theorist would likewise say, makes sense of political reality, constructs political community, engenders rebellions, foments genocides, and forestalls wars. At the outset of Game of Thrones, the power of a lie, told and retold, leads to the overthrow of King Aerys at the Trident and sets in motion the War of the Five Kings.

And at the end of the series, the power of Tyrion’s storytelling saves Westeros and “breaks the wheel” of endless wars between the great houses.

Throughout the show, the Game of Thrones writers used storytelling as both a theme and a plot device, encouraging viewers to think about how stories influence our willingness to tolerate political violence. In Season Four, Tyrion told his brother

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Jaime a story about how, as a child, he had desperately tried to understand their cousin Orson’s obsession with murdering beetles. Tyrion’s monologue about making meaning out of madness foreshadowed the audience’s experience during the week between the two final episodes of Season Eight, when viewers were left to make sense of Daenerys’ willingness at King’s Landing to mow down innocent civilians like so many insects.

Tyrion himself no doubt struggled with this, too, because of the story he had been telling himself about Daenerys for several seasons. By the series finale, Tyrion had grasped the point—not only of cousin Orson’s madness but of his own queen’s. You make meaning, he teaches us, by asking a different question. As several analysts pointed out, we already knew who Daenerys was—if we had paid attention to the facts rather than the narrative. Though she presented herself as a just ruler, Daenerys had been smashing beetles all along, be they witches, slavers, Dothraki horselords, rebels, or captured soldiers.

She had nurtured a penchant for torture since Season One. The story Tyrion had been telling himself about Daenerys had blinded him to her true nature. But, in the end, why Daenerys did it wasn’t what mattered.

All that mattered was how to stop her—and Tyrion knew that to stop her he would need to tell a different kind of story.

It was Tyrion’s pithy reframing of Daenerys’ story arc in his parley with Jon in the final episode that changed the outcome. Not rational analysis—Varys had used logic to reason with Jon. Not data—Jon had the evidence in front of his own eyes. Not persuasive

rhetoric—his family had already exhausted that angle. A compelling story is what ultimately changed Jon’s behavior, and thus changed history.

Tyrion’s view of the power of narrative fits with what many political scientists and educators are coming to understand about the impact of fictional stories on real world political behavior. Political power lies where people decide it lies, and people today are locating power in fantasy and science fiction as much as in fact. For this reason, pop culture offers insights into a society’s values that should matter to foreign-policy makers. Those insights should matter to foreign-policy analysts as well: if there is political power in storytelling, then we need to pay attention to how that power works.

THE POWER OF STORIES

The final season of “Game of Thrones” emphasizes not a realist or a liberal but a constructivist view of the world, where good storytelling has the power to drive history

People love stories, and, as Paul Musgrave notes, storytelling matters in how we understand political reality. Well-known fictional tropes can be used to set political agendas and sell political ideas.

For example, as Manjana Milkoreit has written, environmental activists have used the popularity of Game of Thrones to encourage actions that fight climate change. That climate change turned out to be only a subplot in Game of Thrones doesn’t really matter; here political actors used a cultural meme to

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Political power lies where people decide it lies, and people today are locating power in fantasy and science fiction as much as in fact. should be more interesting to policy analysts than the fact that the showrunners ultimately punished Daenerys for it.

After the sack of King’s Landing, surveys showed that American viewers—both Democrat and Republican—largely withdrew their support from Daenerys and began to support Jon Snow instead.

This shift in allegiance suggests that American viewers care deeply about fighting wars justly and protecting civilians. They want rulers who don’t torture prisoners to death, who care about refugees and the environment, who honor their alliances but also hold war criminals accountable. Though they serve their own ends. Political analysts need to know may increasingly believe the world is not just (and more about how people do this and when it works. this may be a good thing), audiences want to believe Even absent conscious efforts to use them that the arc of history at least bends toward justice, strategically, parables in pop culture can inform and that their rulers will not betray their trust and how audiences think about real-world politics— disgrace them by murdering innocents. That the often in ways that authors don’t necessarily intend. show’s reaffirmation of these core values resonated For example, studies led by the political scientist with audiences suggests something important about Anthony Gierzynski have shown that young people how Americans will evaluate the actions of their own who watch Game of Thrones have a demonstrably leaders. weaker belief in a just world than young people If Game of Thrones teaches us that stories matter, then who do not, when controlling for other variables. the foreign affairs community should take political The finding is politically significant because people fiction seriously—not as fans and literary critics but who do believe in a just world are also more likely as political analysts. Except for the purposes of our to believe that individuals generally get what they own entertainment, we need not do that by agonizing deserve in life, and are therefore less likely to support over the writers’ true intended meaning, or by government policies that correct for market failures, adjudicating whether the showrunners were geniuses, such as anti-poverty programs or affirmative action. incompetents, or mad as the Targaryens. Rather, In other words, whatever the showrunners may we can and should take a hard look at the effects have intended, the research suggests that Game of of this tale in the real world: how concepts from Thrones affected audiences in ways that likely made fictional stories circulate through the policymaking them less willing to accept the political status quo. process, and how pop cultural artifacts or narratives Finally, in drawing lessons from Game of Thrones, influence real-world political discourse and policy foreign-policy analysts must remember that audiences decisions. Then—just like Jon Snow—we can use matter more than showrunners. Similar to public that knowledge to inform difficult decisions about opinion polls, audience reactions to pop cultural how to act. phenomena can provide a window into the national mood. For example, the fact that audiences blamed This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com. the writers for the firebombing of King’s Landing

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In pursuit of peace, Yossi Klein Halevi examines commonalities between the sons of Abraham Cairo — Dalia Asim Over the course of 10 letters, Yossi Klein Halevi, a bestselling author and researcher on Jewish and Israeli affairs based in Jerusalem, examines and unpacks issues central to the IsraeliPalestinian conflict.

The most significant obstacle to peace, writes Yossi Klein Halevi, is a lack of both sides listening to each other. His new book, Letters to my Palestinian Neighbor, has been recently translated into Arabic as part of Halevi’s aspiration to engage Palestinians and the broader Arab world. Halevi — also the author of At the Entrance to the Garden of Eden, Memoirs of a Jewish Extremist, and Like Dreamers — puts the ideas he writes about into practice:

Together with Imam Abdullah al-Entebli, he leads an Americansupported project called the Muslim Leadership Initiative.

Letters to my Palestinian Neighbor presents a diary-like account of an Israeli citizen who aspires to engage Palestinians — both empathically, and on the basis of mutuality. Dividing the book into “letters” built around special days of sacred or symbolic importance, he shares stories about the events they commemorate, from ancient Jewish history to contemporary Arab-Israeli relations to the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Halevi delves into the impact of these events and their influence on people on either side of the conflict. He employs an appealing journalistic style — honed over decades of essay writing, notably in the American magazine The New Republic.

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First letter: “The Wall Between Us” Halevi begins with reflections on the state of Israel as well as Palestine, from his vantage point on the French Hill in Jerusalem, not far from the separation wall. He clarifies the reason for addressing his reader as “neighbor:” though they do not know each other, their lives are vastly intertwined. “Neighbor,” Halevi explains, is a title that most closely reflects the current daily reality. “I feel the presence of that neighbor everywhere,” he writes, “even though I rarely see him.”

Halevi narrates his attempt to discover commonalities between the three monotheistic religions in this sacred capital. All regard the same God as holy, he observes, though the precariousness of this shared living is perpetuated by “mutual separation.” After all, the old city in Jerusalem is divided among Jewish, Muslim, and Christian areas.

In his quest to hone a religious language for peace, Halevi recalls his learning about Islam. He was surprised to find that the Islamic conscience fears neither death nor the temporality of being. He also concluded that if both Jews and Muslims build on the idea of temporality on this earth, they can develop a religious dialogue that reduces their polarization.

Halevi shows empathy with the Palestinian people, including its diaspora, and seeks to understand Palestinians’ claims to the land and listen to their narrative of struggle. At the same time, he explains, “Understanding your narrative doesn’t mean losing my loyalty and love for the right of return of my own, Jewish people to their land.” In the end, he believes it is a tenet of faith and doctrine.

Halevy then argues that the marginalization of the Israeli left — a movement opposed to the occupation of the West Bank — was a terrible mistake. He blames the failed Oslo negotiation on both the Israelis, who continued to build settlements during the talks, and on the Palestinians, who did not respond to peace initiatives.

He affirms that the best path to peace is a two-state solution — one that enables Palestinians to enjoy power as an independent state, the separation barrier to fall, and Israel to live peacefully among its neighbors in the Middle East.

He also blames the Arab world for rejecting Jews’ right of return, as well as Israelis for ignoring the rights of the Palestinians. He writes, “I cannot bear the impact of seemingly endless occupation on the lives of my neighbors — and also on my own moral credibility as a Jew.” He points to a teaching of Judaism: “Seek peace and pursue it.”

—Halevy argues that the marginalization of the Israeli left — a movement opposed to the occupation of the West Bank — was a terrible mistake.

—Second letter: “Need and Longing” In this chapter, the author delves deeper into Jewish life and holidays, and explains how Jews regard their special religious celebrations. He notes, for example, how something as mundane as a traffic signal in Israel reminds him of what his ancestors

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As Sinn Fein leader, Gerry Adams adopted a “long war” approach, which assumed that it would take years, perhaps decades, to drive the British out and that the nationalists needed to enlist broad swaths of the Catholic population in the fight. suffered to reach the point of statehood, then dwells on the lingering threat to his presence on this land. “We have returned to our land, but haven’t been fully delivered yet.”

This letter shows how the assumption that the Holocaust was the main impetus for the Jewish return to Israel is incorrect. Israel, from a Jewish perspective, is a part of the Jewish collective memory: Jews have been asking God to return them to their land for centuries, since the Roman destruction of the Judean Kingdom and banning of the Jewish presence in Jerusalem, which continued into the Christian era. Halevi also notes that Muslim civilization was the more gracious in its dealings with Jews, beginning when Omar bin Al-Khattab allowed the return of some Jews in 638 CE. Halevi then goes on to review the birth of the Zionist movement, founded by Theodor Herzl, who failed to convince the Ottoman caliphate to permit the return of the Jews. His proposal was also rejected by the Vatican, which saw the Jews’ expulsion as punishment for their rejection of Jesus Christ. Halevi notes that Great Britain wanted to cooperate with Herzl, and proposed the so-called "plan of Uganda" to grant Jews citizenship there. This plan failed too, and Herzl died at the age of 44. Halevy believes that such a plan, had it succeeded, would only have amount to a further defeat in the Jews’ -2,000year old longing to return to the land of their origin.

Halevi explains the formation of the Israeli polity, which began with the arrival of European Jews, and continued with the return of Jews from Yemen, Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Russia, and elsewhere. Perhaps the most important point in this letter is the observation by Halevi that Zionism came to be shared as strongly

by Orthodox, socialist, and secular Jews. In other words, Jews, with all their differences, share the connection to a certain land.

Halevi meanwhile laments the present Palestinian reality of exile and diaspora, and believes that Palestinians too have a right of return — and the right to acquire Palestinian citizenship.

Third letter: “Fate and Destiny” Next Halevi answers his Palestinian neighbor’s hypothetical questions about who the Jewish people are. Are they truly a

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nation unto themselves? He explains that the idea of "God's chosen people" means not that Jews enjoy divine privileges, but rather that they endure greater burdens and responsibilities as a nation — and have failed to entirely meet them, despite God having revealed Himself to them. These observations also relate to the Jewish principle that every Jew is part of a larger family.

Fourth letter: “Narrative and Presence” The next piece is written on the backdrop of Israel's independence day, a memory Jews cherished as they developed from living in camps to building skyscrapers in Tel Aviv — from the socialist kibbutz model to a grand Israeli state, albeit one notorious for its settlement policy in the West Bank. Halevi takes the reader back to 1882, when the first Zionist groups arrived in the port of Jaffa. "The Jews succeeded where the Crusaders and Ottomans and the British failed,” he tells his Palestinian neighbor, “because we didn’t merely come here; we returned.” He also clarifies that the intention of the Zionists was the resettlement of Jews, not the possession of Palestinian land or robbing of their property. He cites Ze’ev Jabotinsky, the leader of revisionist Zionism, who wrote, during the period leading up to the establishment of the State of Israel, “Arabs will be granted equality with Jews.”

Halevi urges Palestinians and Israelis to respect each other’s historical narrative, as doing so is essential to pave the way toward peace. He speaks out of experience interacting with Palestinians as a former Israeli soldier who served during the first intifada in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Halevi then returns to the historical trajectory, asserting that the war against the Zionist movement began in the aftermath of the First World War, with the massacres of Jews who arrived from Tsarist Russia to Palestine. The bloodiest massacre occurred in Hebron in 1929, in which Arabs killed 69 Jews, even as some Arabs saved 400 others by allowing them to escape. According to Halevi, the massacre proved an important turning point in the Zionist mindset, in that it severely challenged the belief in the possibility of coexistence between Jews and Palestinians. It was then that Ben Gurion and other Zionist leaders began to prepare for a longterm war with Arabs.

The Jewish population in the Arab world was about one million at that time. One of the most prominent Palestinian leaders, Jerusalem’s Grand Mufti Amin al-Husseini, meanwhile lived for a time as a guest of Hitler's, exhorting Muslims to ally with the Nazis and further the mass murder of Jews in the Middle East.

The letter explains that after 1947, hostilities were fueled by the United Nations decision to establish two independent states in Mandatory Palestine — a proposal that was rejected by the Palestinian national movement. Arabs attacked the Jews for six months in an attempt to conquer Israel. With respect to the displacement of Palestinians after the war, Halevi says it owed to a combination of voluntary flight, forced flight by Jews, and Arab leaders’ advice that they evacuate their homes for use by their armies.

Fifth letter: “Six Days and 50 Years” The next letter begins with the author’s preparations for Jerusalem Day, commemorating the unification of the city of Jerusalem on June 1967 ,7. Halevi expresses his regret at the decision by the Israeli Supreme Court to reject a proposal by some activists to prohibit celebrations in Arab neighborhoods on this day. Halevi tells the story of the 1967 war, covering Israel’s preemptive strike on Egyptian air force fighter jets on June 4, and the subsequent Jordanian shelling of Israeli neighborhoods in West Jerusalem on June 5. Halevi writes that Israel took the decision to occupy the Old City and free it from Jordanian control. The events drastically changed the demarcation of the borders of the state of Israel. The letter also covers the settlement issue: Halevi considers opposition to certain settlements to be an attack against people who simply returned to homes that had been theirs before 1948. He also expounds on the UN’s 1975 resolution declaring Zionism to be a form of racism. The vote passed 72 to 35, with 32 abstentions.

In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union and communist socialism in the early 1990s, the UN voted to reverse its previous decision, and dozens of countries began establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. This prompted Israelis to move forward toward the Oslo peace talks, demonstrating that Israelis are willing to work towards peace when met with mutual respect and recognition. That is what happened in 1977 after the late Egyptian President Anwar El-Sadat visited Jerusalem. The visit led to a peace deal and Israel's withdrawal from the Sinai.

Halevy proceeds to offer a historical reading of events in Jerusalem, personal memories, and impressions of Israel. During his first visit to Israel, he writes, he felt both a permanent feeling of attachment to the land that his ancestors had struggled to access, and an awareness of the persistent insecurity and fear of a repetition of the Holocaust or Israel’s annihilation.

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Halevi then references Yasser Arafat’s duplicity after the Oslo Accords — and his efforts to manipulate Israelis, which strengthened the conviction of a large segment of Israeli society that each of their concessions had brought only a new wave of Palestinian violence.

Sixth letter: “The Partition of Justice” This letter begins in a tone fraught with uncertainty about the best way to reach a solution to the conflict. Can two peoples who have fought each other for a century reach peace? In light of the collective memory of each side, Halevi regards a two-state solution as the answer — albeit painful and by no means easy, as uprooting Jews from Judea, Samaria, and Hebron will leave a painful mark on the Jewish people. At the same time, he acknowledges how difficult it will be for Palestinians to accept the establishment of a Palestinian state without Jaffa. Halevi concludes that the choice is between another 100 years of killing, or dividing the land.

Seventh letter: “Isaac and Ishmael” The letter begins with the advent of Eid al-Adha, an occasion to highlight the commonality between Jews and Muslims, who share a father: Abraham of Hebron. Halevi notes the importance of the city of Hebron for both religions, and laments events such as the massacre of worshippers in the Ibrahimi Mosque by Baruch Goldstein, in which 29 Palestinians were killed and dozens injured. Halevi alerts readers that respect of others’ beliefs and traditions can dispel hatred and curb resentment. Not many Jews appreciate the depth of religious meaning the Al-Aqsa Mosque has for Muslims, while not many Arabs grasp the Jews’ holy connection to the Temple Mount. Halevi ends the letter with an explanation of the Jewish and Muslim versions of the story of Abraham and his son Ismael.

Eighth letter: “The Israeli Paradox” Halevy now reveals his fears about the consequences of the separation wall on future generations of Israelis and Palestinians. Whereas friction and misunderstanding pervade the area today, before the wall was built in the year 2000, both sides had the opportunity to directly communicate.

Halevi goes on to explain the nature of present-day Israeli society, and the paradox of a secular state based on a sacred land. One contradiction in the structure of Israeli society is that the establishment of the state resulted in the unification of of Jewish communities that had been dispersed across the world. He draws on his own story as an example.

Growing up in a Jewish community in New York in the 1960s, Halevi brought the values of pluralism and the American way of life with him to Israel. This stands in contrast to Jews who arrived from the Soviet Union, who grew up facing systematic persecution. Halevi also addresses the contradictions of Palestinians who remained in Israel after the birth of the state in 1948 and received Israeli citizenship. He explores the culture that subsequently evolved among them, arising from their hybrid Israeli-Palestinian identity.

Ninth letter: “Victims and Survivors”

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The letter opens with the memory of the Holocaust. Halevi reminds his Palestinian neighbor that the Israeli state did not result from the West's guilt complex toward Jews in Europe, but rather derived legitimacy from the Jewish faith and inherent attachment to the land. He then describes principles on which the early Zionist state was built: a focus on the faults and mistakes of Jewish peoplehood in exile, and a desire to break with the past. Jews bear a sense of responsibility to end their history of mistreatment in the diaspora. Their rejection of the mentality of victimhood, Halevy finds, is one of the main contributors to Israel’s success today.

Halevi relates that his father was a survivor of the Holocaust. Readers experience the fears he still carries even in recalling what happened to Jews who had been stripped of their humanity.

—Halevi asserts the the best solution for peace is two states, granting Palestinians political sovereignty, knocking down the wall of separation, and allowing Israel to engage its region in peace and security.

—Tenth Letter: “A Booth at the Edge of the Desert” The tenth and final letter explores Sukkot, a holiday commemorating the journey of Jews from the Sinai desert to the land of Israel. They pitched tents along the way in braving the harshness of the desert. Jews today still pitch tents in front of their homes for a week, and many live in them as part of their observance of the holiday. Each family decorates its tent with what it deems appropriate. Halevi chooses to adorn it with Qur’anic verses, Tibetan flags, and Jewish symbols. The tent, he writes, is a symbol of the fragility of life.

Halevi contemplates the realities around him and feels unsafe. The situation in the Middle East lies between rubble and ruin: Syria is like a tomb, Iraq is devouring itself, a Turkish dictator suppresses and tortures the elite of his population, and Yemen is starving. Taking stock of the destruction that surrounds him, he asks, “What future awaits our two peoples on this land?”

He considers the larger perils facing humanity — from environmental, nuclear, and technological disasters — and avers that humanity is capable of destroying itself. He ends his letter with questions such as, what is our responsibility as beings placed on this earth by God, amid one of the most complicated conflicts in history and one of the most gravest periods of history?

In sum, Yossi Klein Halevy has honored his commitment to objectivity.

He has aired the manifestations of intolerance and extremism on both sides, and situated them among whirlpools of ignorance, a failure at reciprocity, and, for that matter, piles of maps and historical documents.

He pins his hope on spiritual aspects of the commonality between the descendants of Ishmael and Isaac. Letters to My Palestinian Neighbor is a source of reference on the history of Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

At a time of turbulence across the Arab region, it paves the way for a future of greater understanding.

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A Weekly Political News Magazine

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JĂźrgen Klopp: From Perpetual Runner Up to Champions League Winner www.majalla.com

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5 food and Drink Fads You Can Skip Why New Crazes Might Not Be the Smartest By: Harvard Health Letter Trendy isn’t necessarily healthy. Consider alternatives instead.

It’s fun to try new foods once in a while. But when a flashy food fad gets your attention, be careful.

Just because a particular food or drink is showing up everywhere doesn’t mean it’s healthy. Here are

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Coconut oil is %90 saturated fat; one tablespoon has about 12 grams of saturated fat.

Kathy McManus, director of the Department of Nutrition at Harvard-affiliated Brigham and Women’s Hospital. “You’ll get more far more nutrients from a healthy diet.”

Also note: many enhanced waters are loaded with sugar. Vitamin water has more than 30 grams of added sugar — well over the -25gram daily limit of added sugar for women and close to the -36gram daily limit for men, as recommended by the American Heart Association. Consuming huge amounts of sugar can spike your blood sugar levels and lead to weight gain.

A better idea: “Infuse a glass of water with berries or orange slices,” McManus suggests. “If you’re concerned you have a marginal diet, take a multivitamin.”

2. COCONUT OIL

Close up of woman›s hand taking a photo of fresh breakfast with smartphone.

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Coconut oil is touted as an all-natural way to boost brain function, ward off heart disease, burn fat, improve digestion, and help health in many other ways. Despite the claims, we don’t have solid evidence to back them up. The problem: coconut oil is %90 saturated fat. One tablespoon has about 12 grams of saturated fat (a whole day’s worth in a -1,500calorie diet), compared with 2 grams in a tablespoon of extravirgin olive oil.

Some small studies suggest coconut oil can raise five trends you can probably skip. “good” HDL cholesterol levels (possibly because the oil contains lauric acid, which the body processes 1. VITAMIN-ENHANCED WATER slightly differently than other saturated fats).

However, other studies suggest coconut oil also raises Vitamin-enhanced waters have names like Propel “bad” LDL cholesterol levels.

Vitamin Boost and Vitaminwater, and they promise And no evidence suggests coconut oil reduces heart lots of vitamins (like B, C, and E) and minerals disease or any other disease. But we have a wealth (like magnesium, calcium, and potassium) in every of evidence that consuming lots of saturated fat can gulp. But don’t start guzzling. “There aren’t enough increase your risk for cardiovascular disease and nutrients added to these waters to make a difference in stroke. your health. I saw one product with 10 milligrams of A better idea: Stick to canola and olive oils for potassium. The recommendation for daily potassium cooking. “You don’t have to totally avoid coconut is 4,700 milligrams per day,” says registered dietitian oil. But save it for a special meal that calls for it,

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like a Thai dish. Don’t use it for your everyday oil,” and various vitamins. But hummus recently has appeared as a dessert treat in restaurants and grocery McManus advises. stores, with flavors like brownie batter, snickerdoodle, red velvet, cherry, and mango. The texture is like 3. GLUTEN-FREE FOOD gritty cake frosting that you can spread on fruit, These foods are free of gluten, a protein found in pretzels, cookies, or even vegetables. But should you? grains such as wheat, rye, and barley. In people with Dessert hummus contains sugar and lots of saturated celiac disease, gluten can trigger an immune system fat. For example, two tablespoons of Delighted By attack on the small intestine. For these people, gluten- Hummus, Brownie Batter flavor, contains 80 calories, free foods are necessary, especially since the protein 5 grams of saturated fat, and 4 grams of sugar. By comparison, two tablespoons of Sabra Classic (plain, can hide in sauces, soups, and even salad dressings.

But McManus recommends against eating gluten-free non-dessert) hummus contains 70 calories, 1 gram of foods if you can tolerate whole grains. “You wouldn’t saturated fat, and no sugar. want to miss out on whole grains when intake is linked A better idea: Dip a few fresh strawberries into plain to a decrease in heart problems and early death,” she hummus to bring a sweet zing to this ancient staple.

Chickpeas, McManus notes, “have a low glycemic says.

Another problem with gluten-free foods like crackers index and won’t spike your blood sugar — unless you or pretzels: they typically use rice or potato starch in add sugar to them.” place of whole grains. “Eating large amounts could increase your blood sugar,” McManus says.

5. MUSHROOM-INFUSED DRINKS A better idea: If you feel you’re sensitive to gluten but don’t have celiac disease (sensitivity symptoms include bloating, cramping, or diarrhea after ingesting anything with gluten, like wheat bread), McManus recommends keeping a food diary to record what you eat and note any symptoms that occur. If you see a pattern, talk to your doctor or dietitian about reducing your intake of some of these foods and how to replace them safely.

4. DESSERT HUMMUS Hummus is made from a blend of chickpeas, olive oil, tahini (ground sesame seeds), and a hint of lemon juice. It’s rich in healthy unsaturated fats. Plain hummus is a fine way to get protein, carbohydrates,

Hummus recently has appeared as a dessert treat in restaurants and grocery stores, with flavors like brownie batter, snickerdoodle, red velvet, cherry, and mango.

Some coffee shops, restaurants, and even manufacturers offer coffee, tea, or smoothies blended with mushroom powder or mushroom extract. The claims: mushrooms can reduce caffeine jitters and improve your digestion, thinking skills, energy, and immune response. While mushrooms contain numerous plant chemicals (phytochemicals) linked to fighting cancer and protecting our cells from damage that might lead to chronic disease, most studies on the benefits of mushrooms are small and limited to petri dishes and lab animals.

Will a mushroom-infused brew make you feel better?

“It’s questionable,” McManus says. “We don’t really know. There’s no research on it.” Plus, you can’t be sure exactly what’s in a mushroom extract or powder, since the FDA does not regulate the safety and purity of dietary supplements.

A better idea: McManus recommends adding spices (such as cinnamon) to your coffee, tea, or smoothies, but only for flavor. “There are small studies that link cinnamon to blood sugar control. But adding it to a drink doesn’t mean you’ll see an improvement in blood sugar,” McManus says, “and it takes away from the big picture when you focus on one ingredient.

Nutrients don’t act alone. They work together. Focus on a healthy meal pattern, not one nutrient.”

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Close up shot of cold mason jars of meyer lemonade on an old rustic wooden table.

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Coconut oil in jar with spoon.

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The Jürgen Klopp Effect How the German Coach Retrieved Liverpool’s Winning Identity By: Ali El Shamy When Jürgen Klopp took over Liverpool in October 2015; the team was a stark contrast to the one that has just won the Champions League. The Liverpool that Klopp inherited was

struggling in all competitions and was already 10th in the Premier League just two months into the season. His first three games with the team all ended in draws and it was at that moment that everyone knew that he had his work cut out for him. Three and a half years on from his appointment, Liverpool is now a strikingly

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As with previous teams he’s managed, Klopp has employed a philosophy of gesamtkunstwerk, which essentially aims to make every part of the club feel included in its accomplishments.

Liverpool’s celebration parade after their Champions League final win over Tottenham Hotspur in Madrid on 1st June, 2019. (Getty)

different team, one that is hungry for and capable of winning games and trophies. This evolution did not happen overnight as Klopp took it upon himself to change everything in the club from the tactics, the scouting process and the philosophy of the team.

TACTICAL CONSISTENCY AND ADAPTABILITY During his last season at the club, Brendan Rodgers, Liverpool’s previous manager, was known to be inconsistent with his tactics. Rodgers often changed the team’s formation from game to game and frequently played some players out of position.

Such negative unpredictability created confusion and chaos in the field; moreover, Rodgers could not attract quality players to replace Luis Suarez who had joined Barcelona the season prior and Steven Gerard who went to play for LA Galaxy. As

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a result, the team that ended the 14-2013 season second in the league was struggling to get into top four at the start of the 16-2015 season. Unlike Rodgers, Klopp stuck to consistent formations throughout his tenure, namely the 3-3-4. Most of the games are played with 3-3-4, as this plays well into Klopp’s counter-pressing approach, which dictates that the team must immediately regain possession of the ball once it lands with the opposition. The logic behind counter-pressing is that when the opposing team gains possession it goes from defensive to attacking, thus rendering it vulnerable to attack if they quickly lose the ball. To employ this tactic, Klopp lets his fullbacks take part in the team’s pressing; as such Trent Alexander Arnold and Andy Robertson have been instrumental in many of the team’s goals this season. Furthermore, Klopp uses three compact and robust central midfielders to cover for the attacking fullbacks, these midfielders are capable to getting the ball from the opposition and quickly pass it to the front three and players such as Henderson, Fabinho, Keita, and Milner are skilled at doing just that. It should be noted that these midfielders are not static, as the two wider ones are adventurous and participate in the team’s attack, while the midfielder in the number six position (mainly Henderson) occupies the more defensive role. Such tactics help get the ball quickly to Liverpool’s front 3, which consists mainly of Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino who have shown to be ruthless in front of goal. The front three’s effectiveness is evident as Salah scored 27 goals this season for Liverpool, while Mane scored 26 and Firmino, despite his injuries this season, still managed to score 16 goals for the Reds.

PASSION AND INCLUSIVENESS You don’t need a magnifying glass to identify the passion Klopp has for the game and for the club. During every Liverpool game, the camera pans at the German who is seen shouting instructions at the players, yelling at them when they aren’t playing to plan and of course emphatically celebrating when his team scores a goal. He also openly shows love for the players as he is often seen hugging them, in spite of this he is not afraid of showing his stern side when the players disappoint him. For instance, in September 2018 after his side was knocked out of the League Cup by Chelsea, Klopp was seen shouting at Shaqiri reportedly because he allowed Jordan

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Henderson to take the last minute free-kick.

As with previous teams he’s managed, Klopp has employed a philosophy of gesamtkunstwerk, which essentially aims to make every part of the club feel included in its accomplishments. As such, the players, members of staff, stadium employees and most of all the fans feel that they are an integral part of the club’s success; this is one of the reasons why the fans will collectively cheer their hearts out during games. The best display of gesamtkunstwerk in action can be seen during the end of the Champions League semifinal against Barcelona, when Klopp, the coaching staff and the players sang ‘You’ll Never Walk Alone’ with the fans at Anfield, something that would be repeated after the team went on to win the final three weeks later at the Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid.

More notably, Klopp has also been filmed singing with fans after Liverpool’s Champions League defeat in 2018 and again after the team’s European victory in 2019, such embrace of the fans is something that is rarely, if ever, seen.

Klopp is also keen on accommodating his players; in an interview

Having found victory in Europe, Klopp now has the goal of winning the Premier League with Liverpool something they haven’t done since 1990.

with Goal he recalled an incident when he was a player for Mainz 05 and his coach would not allow him to miss training to be with his son during his first day of school. He noted that he regrets the decision and has since tried accommodating his players’ needs; during the interview, he mentioned the fact that he allowed Fabian Gerber, one of his players during his managerial stint at Mainz 05, a day off to celebrate his mother’s birthday. This notion of accommodation remains with Klopp at Liverpool and an example of this was seen during one of the press conferences in the runup to the Champions League final when he was asked about the prospect of Salah and Mane fasting during the game which clashed with Ramadan. He eloquently answered that he had “no problem with the fast of my players. I respect their religion, they were always wonderful and they offered the best whether they were fasting or not." This contrasts with other notable coaches, namely Jose Mourinho who, during his time as Manchester United coach, famously criticized Anthony Martial for staying with his girlfriend after she gave birth to their first baby.

SMART SPENDING AND FILLING NECESSARY GAPS In the modern game, the biggest clubs in Europe have tended to scout players who have been on the radar or big name “galactico” players. Klopp, by contrast, incorporated a scouting process that aimed to fill necessary gaps in the team rather than focusing on big-name players. When he needed a third forward to effectively use his 3-3-4 tactics, he signed Mo Salah for 37 million pounds.

Although this was a club record at the time, it was a bargain in terms of modern club spending, just to put it into context during that same transfer window Manchester United spent 75

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Liverpool supporters celebrate Liverpool win against Tottenham Hotspur during the UEFA Champions League final football match at Plaza Mayor in Madrid on June 2019 ,2.

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million pounds on Romelo Lukaku while Paris Saint-Germain paid Barcelona 222 million Euros for Neymar. Salah proved to be an excellent signing for the team as he scored 71 goals and made 24 assists during his first two seasons at the club, meaning that he was directly involved in 95 goals during these past couple of seasons. Moreover, he also cleverly bought in Virgil van Dijk, who despite his hefty signing fee of 75 million pounds, has had a massive impact in improving the team’s defense, something Liverpool was struggling with for the past few years. Van Dijk has also proven to be a massive leader who is also tactically skillful; this was shown during Liverpool’s game against Newcastle at St. James’ Park when he told Shaqiri to take a last minute free-kick instead of Trent Alexander Arnold. This was a smart command as Shaqiri masterfully delivered the ball to Divock Origi who headed in a goal to give Liverpool the final winning score of 2-3. After Loris Karius’s goalkeeping errors in the 2018 Champions League final, Klopp was quick to buy Alisson Becker from Roma and his impeccable performance in this year’s Champions League final speaks for itself, as he helped keep a clean sheet in Liverpool’s 0-2 win against Tottenham Hotspur. All in all, Klopp has built the team as a unit rather than a set of talented individuals who do not complement each other.

A LOOK INTO THE FUTURE On June 2019 ,1, Klopp and Liverpool’s efforts finally paid off as they won their sixth overall Champions League. On that night, Liverpool was able to put last year’s nightmare in Kiev behind them as they confidently regained their thrones as the kings of Europe.

This victory marked Liverpool’s first major trophy since 2005, but this will hopefully be only the beginning of Klopp’s tournament success with the Reds. Having found victory in Europe, Klopp now has the goal of winning the Premier League with Liverpool something they haven’t done since 1990. Since they missed the mark by only one point, Klopp’s army will be keen to bring future domestic joy for their loyal supporters.

NEVER GIVE UP ATTITUDE Throughout the season, Liverpool has been relentless and has displayed inspiring performances that exhibit how perseverance pays off. Last December’s Merseyside Derby seemed destined to end in a draw, but then Origi’s 96th-minute goal sent thunder waves across Anfield and caused Klopp to euphorically run into the field and hug Alisson. A similar incident would happen in March when Liverpool was tied one all against Tottenham Hotspur, but Liverpool’s constant pressing caused Spurs to score a last minute own goal, which saw the Reds collect a crucial three points in the Premier League race. Despite the fact that they ended up runners up in the league, the team’s “never give up” spirit caused the competition to go into the last day of the tournament, which ultimately saw Manchester City crowned champions of England by just one point.

Nevertheless, Liverpool’s point tally of 97 and a goal difference of 67 are impressive to say the least and would have made them champions in any other season. This attitude was also displayed during the Champions League, particularly after the team lost 0-3 against Barcelona in the first leg of the semi-final. This did not stop the team from believing as they made an incredible comeback in the second leg, which they won 0-4 and saw them through to their second European final in a row. What’s even more incredible about that game was the fact that Liverpool went in without Salah and Firmino, two key first team players who were injured at the time, and to make matters worse Barcelona’s first team had taken a week off. But none of that mattered as Liverpool kept playing with their relentless tactics and attitude, while Barcelona could not keep up with the Reds at home.

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Liverpool's Mohamed Salah celebrates scoring their third goal (Reuters)

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Jürgen Klopp: From Perpetual Runner Up to Champions League Winner By: Ali El Shamy

trips to Frankfurt to study for his Football Coaching License.

would win for a long time. The next two seasons were not as successful Klopp and the team, and the German resigned after the 1. Early Life 15-2014 season which saw Dortmund end Jürgen Klopp was born on June 1967 ,16, 3. Mainz 05: First Managerial Job in Stuttgart, West Germany. His father, When he retired as a footballer in 2001, he up 7th in the Bundesliga.

Norbert, was a traveling salesman and was appointed Mainz 05’s new manager. showed the potential of becoming a As coach of the club, he started pioneering 5. Klopp Brings Back Liverpool’s Lost goalkeeper. However, he could not achieve his gegenpressing, or counter-pressing Glory his dream and so he transferred his love for tactics. He proved to be talented as a coach, Klopp was appointed the new Liverpool football to Jürgen and trained him to become as he guided Mainz 05 to promotion to the manager in October 2015 and as with an athlete. Klopp would go on to say that Bundesliga after his third season, a first Dortmund, Klopp gradually improved the his father was ruthless in his training as he in the club’s history. The club would get club season by season. Klopp also trained relegated again three years later and Klopp the team to counter-press and bought in wanted him to be the best he could be. eventually resigned in 2008 after failing to the right players suited for his tactics. secure promotion once again.

His impact became noticeable during the 2. Education and Football Career 18-2017 season, as Liverpool blitzed to the As a youth player, he played for several teams such as SV Glatten and Rot-Weiss 4. Borussia Dortmund: Klopp’s Rise to Champions League final, which Real Madrid ended up winning. But, Liverpool kept Frankfurt. Klopp would go on to play Prominence amateur football for Eintracht Frankfurt Klopp was appointed as Borussia up their winning pace and during the next while pursuing a degree in sports science Dortmund’s new coach in 2008 and was season, they competed against Manchester from the Goethe University of Frankfurt. tasked to help improve the club’s abysmal City for the Premier League, but alas lost It was during that time that he had his first form as it only managed to come in 13th by one point. Liverpool would nevertheless stint as a coach since he managed Frankfurt place the previous season. Like in Mainz 05, have their crowning moment three weeks D-Juniors. He became a professional Klopp employed his counter-pressing tactics later after they beat Tottenham Hotspur 0-2 footballer when he signed for Mainz 05 in but did not make an instant impact. Rather, in that season›s Champions League final.

1990, where he played until his retirement the team’s league form improved over This tournament was a major milestone for in 2001. He was initially a striker but time and Klopp won the Bundesliga with both Liverpool and Klopp; it was Liverpool’s converted into a defender in 1995. Despite Dortmund after his third season in charge. first major trophy since 2005 and Klopp’s this, he remains the club’s third highest goal The following season was also a success first ever Champions League win. Moreover, scorer with 56 goals to his name. During his as Dortmund won both the Bundesliga and Klopp managed to overcome his cup final playing career, he closely watched how his the German Cup, although this would prove curse, as he had previously lost six finals coaches managed players and made weekly to be the last cup competition that Klopp before winning the 2019 European Cup.

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