Will Iran Choose Confrontation or Negotiation?

Boris Johnson’s Options are Bleak

A Weekly Political News Magazine

What John Bolton’s Sacking Means for USIran Tensions

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1765- september - 13/09/2019

2

Issue 1765- september - 13/09/2019

Hong Kong’s Carrie Lam: The ‘Nanny’, the ‘Good Fighter’, and ‘Beijing’s Puppet’ www.majalla.com

Will Iran Choose Confrontation or Negotiation?

www.majalla.com

Editorial Almost 16 months have gone by since the US has withdrawn from the JCPOA agreement, and in the year that followed tensions have greatly escalated between the US and Iran. In recent months, Iran has attacked oil tankers belonging to regional US allies in the Arabian Gulf, threatened to close off the Strait of Hormuz and has ramped up its regional proxies. Furthermore, Iran has been violating its commitments to the agreement by increasing its uranium enrichment.

Thus far, Trump’s maximum pressure campaign has placed Iran in a corner, and the Islamic Republic has shown little willingness to go back to the negotiating table with the US. This week’s cover story by Hanin Ghaddar explores the options Iran has left at this point in time, as it faces more economic sanctions from the US and the prospect of a military confrontation with Israel. The writer explores confrontational actions that Iran’s proxies in the region have taken and the way Israel has retaliated against such actions.

Joseph Braude writes on Iran’s recent decision to no longer comply with the enriched uranium limits set by the JCPOA and to build more centrifuges. Iran cited the inaction of European allies for its recent measures. The writer further emphasizes that the regime might be preparing for protests due to economic decline in the coming weeks, as IRGC chose hardliner Brigadier General Gholamhossein Gheybparvar to be the new deputy at the Central Security Headquarters.

John Bolton has long been a controversial figure in US politics.

Believed to be one of the main orchestrators of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, his hawkish reputation has only increased during his tenure as Trump’s national security advisor. Many think that Trump’s hardline stance toward Iran is due to the influence of Bolton, and his recent resignation has led to some optimism towards ease of tensions between both countries. While some reports have indicated that Trump is allegedly more willing to sit down and reopen negotiations with Iran, it is still too early to be overly eager of such prospects. Majalla explores both optimistic and pessimistic viewpoints.

As the British parliament has entered its -5week prorogation, it seems that the realm of British politics is at a standstill. A frustrated Johnson has had his call for an early general election rejected twice and is adamant that he will take the country out of the EU by October 31. However, the passage of the Benn Bill into law makes it illegal for him to pursue a no-deal without parliamentary approval. It seems now that Labor has placed the Conservatives into a corner as its cross-party talks may have produced a temporary opposition alliance. In spite of this, it is still not prepared to call an election. Yasmine El-Geressi and Ali El Shamy write on this political stalemate and the options both parties have to gain the upper hand in this never-ending game of political chess.

2

13/09/19

A Weekly Political News Magazine

www.majalla.com/eng

Editor-in-Chief

Ghassan Charbel Editorial secretary Mostafa El-Dessouki HH Saudi Research and Marketing (UK) Ltd 10th Floor Building 7 Chiswick Business Park 566 Chiswick High Road London W4 5YG Tel : +44 207 831 8181 Fax: +44 207 831 2310

‫الوكيل اإلعالني‬ ،www.alkhaleejiah.com :‫موقع إلكتروني‬ hq@alkhaleejiah.com :‫بريد إلكتروني‬ + 9714 3 914440 :‫ دبي‬،920 000 417 : ‫من داخل اململكة‬ +44 207 404 6950 :‫ لندن‬+00764 537 331 :‫باريس‬ +966 11 441 1444 : ‫ومن مختلف الدول‬

- ‫ طريق مكة‬- ‫ حي املؤتمرات‬- ‫مرخص لها الرياض‬ ‫تقاطع التخصصى‬ +44 207 831 8181 :‫ لندن‬- 4419933 ‫ هاتف‬:‫الرياض‬

A Weekly Political News Magazine

14 Iran Throws Down the Gauntlet

Issue 1765- september - 13/09/2019

32 To Cure Ebola Will Take More Than a Pill

28 Pope Francis’ Holy Diplomacy in Ukraine

24 A Deal With the Taliban Is Only the First

Step Toward Peace

36 Is It Time for Britain to Adopt a Codified Constitution

46

Quick-start Guide to Nuts and Seeds 3

13/09/19

Renee Zellweger Brings Personal Insights to

40 Her Challenging Role as Garland in ‘Judy’

S

napshot

A police officer fires teargas at protesters on September 2019 ,8 in Hong Kong, China. Pro-democracy protesters have continued demonstrations across Hong Kong despite the withdrawal of a controversial extradition bill as demonstrators call for the city›s Chief Executive Carrie Lam to immediately meet the rest of their demands, including an independent inquiry into police brutality, the retraction of the word ‚riot› to describe the rallies, and the right for Hong Kong people to vote for their own leaders. (Getty)

4

13/09/19

5

13/09/19

S

napshot

Confetti, flower petals and coloured powder are showered on an idol of the elephant-headed Hindu deity Ganesha during a procession on the last day of the Ganesh Chaturthi festival in Mumbai on September 2019 ,12. (Getty)

6

13/09/19

7

13/09/19

W

eekly news Palestinians, who signed interim peace deals with Israel in the 1990s that include security cooperation, seek to make the area part of a future state. Officials in Jordan and Saudi Arabia sharply criticised the announcement and on Wednesday, U.N. Secretary General António Guterres expressed, saying it would be illegal and gut prospects for regional peace.

Iraq Stampede Kills 31 at Ashura Commemorations in Karbala

At least 31 people have been killed in a stampede during commemorations for the Shia

Hezbollah Downs Israeli Drone

On Monday, Hezbollah said it downed and took possession of an Israeli drone in south Lebanon after a flare-up at the border with Israel around a week ago. The brief exchange of cross-border fire between Hezbollah and Israel marked the fiercest shelling exchange since the long-time enemies fought a deadly month-long war in 2006. He added that there were no longer red lines that Hezbollah would not cross in defending Lebanon from Israeli aggression. He said this does not mean U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war, would not be respected, but that Lebanon and its people had the right to selfdefence. Hezbollah’s leader said on Tuesday his Iran-backed movement had shot down the

drone to strengthen deterrence against attack by its arch-foe.

Israel's Netanyahu Announces Postelection Plan to Annex West Bank's Jordan Valley

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced his intention on Tuesday to annex the Jordan Valley, a large swathe of the occupied West Bank, if he wins a closely contested election just a week away. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said in a statement that “all signed agreements with Israel and the obligations resulting from them would end” if Netanyahu went through with the move. Israel captured the West Bank in a 1967 war and

holy day of Ashura in the Iraqi city of Karbala, officials say. A health ministry spokesman said another 100 people were injured. The stampede reportedly occurred when a pilgrim tripped while hundreds of thousands were performing a ritual. Ashura commemorates the martyrdom in battle of the Imam Hussein, a grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, in 680AD. Every year, millions of Shia Muslim pilgrims travel to Karbala for Ashura, which falls on the 10th of Muharram, the first month of the Islamic lunar calendar. It is marked with mourning rituals and passion plays re-enacting Hussein's martyrdom.

Trump Says Taliban Talks 'Dead,' U.S. Military to Ramp up Afghanistan Operations

U.S. President Donald Trump proclaimed talks with Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders dead on Monday, while the general in charge said the U.S. military is likely to ramp up operations in Afghanistan to counter an increase in Taliban attacks. Trump scrapped talks with the Taliban

8

13/09/19

planned for Camp David, Maryland, over the weekend after an American soldier was killed by a suicide bomber in the capital Kabul last week. Trump had hoped to cap months of U.S. negotiations with the Taliban militants, who control large parts of Afghanistan, with a secret meeting at Camp David that would include Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and was aimed at securing an agreement to pull U.S. troops out of America’s longest war of 18 years.

Trump Fires Foreign Policy Hawk Bolton, Citing Strong Disagreements

Trump’s suggestions of a possible meeting with the Iranian leadership and advocated a tougher approach on Russia and, more recently, Afghanistan. Trump said Bolton had made mistakes, including offending North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un by demanding that he follow a "Libyan model" and hand over all his nuclear weapons. Trump also said he disagreed with Bolton on Venezuela but offered no specifics. "I thought he was way out of line and I think I’ve proven to be right," the president said.

Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament for five weeks was unlawful and should be annulled, Scotland’s highest court of appeal ruled on Wednesday in a damning verdict on the British prime minister’s reasons for the shutdown. Parliament was prorogued suspended - on Monday until Oct. 14, a move opponents argued was designed to thwart their attempts to scrutinise his plans for leaving the European Union and allow him to push through a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31. Johnson’s office said the government would appeal to the Supreme Court, the highest judicial body in the United Kingdom. It was not immediately clear what effect the ruling would have. Johnson’s opponents to accused him of lying to the queen as to the reasons for the suspension. Johnson said on Thursday those claims were “absolutely not” true.

Bahamas Says 2,500 Missing After Dorian; PM Warns Death Toll to Rise 'Significantly'

Scottish Court Says PM Johnson's U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly fired Suspension of Parliament is Unlawful his national security adviser John Bolton amid disagreements with his hard-line aide over how to handle foreign policy challenges such as North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan and Russia.

Bolton, a leading foreign policy hawk and Trump’s third national security adviser, had pressed the president not to let up pressure on North Korea despite diplomatic efforts.

Bolton, a chief architect of Trump’s strident stance against Iran, had also argued against

Some 2,500 people are still listed as missing in the Bahamas more than a week after Hurricane Dorian pummeled the Caribbean island chain, although that number may include evacuees who fled to shelters, authorities said on Wednesday. Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis told the nation in a televised address that the death toll from Dorian remained at 50, but conceded that the large number of people missing meant that number would rise. “The number of deaths is expected to significantly increase,” Minnis said, adding the government was being transparent and would provide “timely information on the loss of life as it is available.” Emergency management officials told a separate news conference that the list of missing had not yet been checked against records of evacuees or the thousands of people staying in shelters.

9

13/09/19-

C

over story

Will Iran Choose Confrontation or Negotiation?

Tehran is Left with Few Choices as US and Israel Step up Pressure 10

13/08/19

While the Iranian regime is trying to find a way to weather the financial storm, Israel has been busy attacking Iran’s presence in the region, mainly the facilities that are used by Iran and its proxies to develop the precision missiles times; however the supreme leader of the Iranian regime has so far rejected such talks.

Iran might be waiting for the results of the upcoming US presidential elections to see if they could deal with a democratic president, who might potentially be less demanding than the current one. If they are able to survive their financial crisis until a new president – or the same – gets confirmed, Iran might not want to surrender to the US conditions and negotiate a deal that would make Trump looks stronger ahead of the elections. The question is, can they survive the US financial pressure until then?

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani leads Council of Ministers meeting in Tehran, Iran on September 2019 ,11.

(Getty)

by Hanin Ghaddar In the past few weeks, Iran was hit on many levels, militarily by Israel – on some of its sites and proxies in the region, and financially by more US sanctions. Meanwhile, US president Donald Trump is still extending his hand to get Iran to the negotiating table, before the scheduled US presidential elections on November 2020.

Iran has been sending different – and contradictory – messages. Iranian president Hassan Rouhani had expressed interest in meeting Trump a number of

11

13/08/19

While the Iranian regime is trying to find a way to weather the financial storm, Israel has been busy attacking Iran’s presence in the region, mainly the facilities that are used by Iran and its proxies to develop the precision missiles. Israel has been bombing these facilities in Syria for a while now, but as Hezbollah has moved some of them to Lebanon and Iraq, Israel widened its Syria strategy to target these facilities as well.

EXPANDING THE REGIONAL STRATEGY Earlier this week, unknown warplanes targeted an arms depot and posts of Iranian-backed militias in eastern Syria, near the Iraqi border, killing at least 18 fighters. An Israeli military statement said that following this attack, rockets had been fired from Syria – specifically near Damascus - but all failed to hit Israeli territory.

C

over story

Also, Israel and Hezbollah have traded fire for the first time since the 2006 July war. After Israel hit Hezbollah’s headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, targeting what seems to be an industrial mixer that helps in developing precision missiles, Hezbollah launched anti-tank missiles at an Israeli armored vehicle near the border, causing no casualties. Israel retaliated with artillery fire into southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah said that the missile attack was retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that took place end of August near Damascus that killed two of its members.

Only one day later, Iraqi media reported that an unmanned aerial vehicle struck a weapons depot belonging to pro-Iranian Shiite militias. The targeted depot is near the Iraqi city of Hit, in the country's western Anbar province that borders Syria, not too far from the sites that targeted Deir Ezzour, east of Syria.

All these attacks seem to have targeted several of Iran’s precision missile facilities, which Israel has repeatedly warned the international community about for the months. Israel has accused Hezbollah of attempting to transform its -130,000missiles to precision missiles using Iranian precisionguidance technology. The Israel Defense Forces recently released information about such a facility belonging to Hezbollah, located in the Bekaa

While the Europeans – mainly the French president Emmanuel Macron – are still trying to organize a Trump-Rouhani Summit, Israel revealed what it says is a secret Iranian nuclear weapons development site.

Valley in Lebanon.

This – and other facilities in Lebanon – haven’t been bombed by Israel, but the revelation of the site was a message, or a warning, to Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, that if Hezbollah doesn’t cease work on its precision missiles project, Israel will go ahead and bomb them.

Many expect Israel will be ready to do that after the Israeli elections scheduled on September ,17 2019, and government formation.

THE NUCLEAR DEAL As the US increases sanctions against the Iranian regime and Quds Force officials, Iran decides to pressure the international community in its own way, mainly to put more pressure on the Europeans to help Iran with sanctions.

On May 2019 ,8, Tehran decided to reduce its commitments to the JCPOA, based on Articles 26 and 36, and set a deadline for Europeans to remedy breaches.

On September 8, Iran informed the IAEA that it will reinstall centrifuges pipes in research and development lines to put in place a -164chain of IR4- centrifuges and a -164chain of IR2-M. While the Europeans – mainly the French president Emmanuel Macron – are still trying to organize a Trump-Rouhani Summit, Israel revealed what it says is a secret Iranian nuclear weapons development site.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed earlier this week some satellite images and map coordinates of the nuclear site in the central Iranian region of Abadeh. Netanyahu said the information came from nuclear archives that Israeli agents stole from Iran's capital, Tehran, in early 2018.

IAEA said its inspectors confirmed that Iran is preparing to use more advanced centrifuges capable of refining uranium, a key component of nuclear weapons. The organization stated that

12

13/08/19

Israeli Prime Minister and Defence Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a statement to the media on the Iranian nuclear issue at the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem on September 2019 ,9.

(Getty)

the equipment that Iran has "prepared for testing" includes several types of centrifuges prohibited under the 2015 nuclear deal.

IRAN’S CHOICES One, Iran can decide to do nothing else and wait for the US elections, then decide who to negotiate with and on what conditions.

Two, Iran can accept Trump’s offer to negotiate before the elections, but this means that they are no longer capable of weathering the financial difficulties.

Three, Iran can escalate more in two directions: One, it can further reduce its commitments and restart activities at the Arak heavy water nuclear reactor. Heavy water can be employed in reactors to produce plutonium, a fuel used in nuclear

13

13/08/19

warheads. This has two implications: Europeans will no longer be able to protect the nuclear deal and will have to withdraw as well. The US – and Israel – might resort to military measures against Iran, mainly against these facilities, to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

Two, Iran can start a war against Israel – and the US – in the region, using its proxies such as PMFs in Iraq against US bases and interests, and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, against Israel.

However, this choice is too risky for Iran as a war means Iran and its proxies will lose much more than they have lost today. In addition, their financial crisis will make them reconsider going into a war that is also costly.

Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Visiting Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

P

olitics

Iran Throws Down the Gauntlet

Tightening US Sanctions are Leading to Fears of Renewed Unrest as the Economic Toll Climbs

by Joseph Braude Tehran’s contest of nuclear brinkmanship with the West entered a new phase as Iran moved this week towards resuming uranium enrichment

with advanced centrifuges, signaling a deepening break with the provisions of the 2015 JCPOA. For its part, the American-led sanctions regime on Iranian crude oil is tightening, causing exports to fall, and leading to fears of renewed unrest as

14

13/09/19

the economic toll climbs.

IRAN RETURNS TO ADVANCED ENRICHMENT Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sent a letter to the EU’s Foreign Affairs representative, Federica Mogherini, announcing that Iran would no longer comply with the limits on uranium enrichment as set forth in the nuclear agreement of 2015. According to Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi, the letter announced that “Iran ceases all its commitments in JCPOA in the field of nuclear research and development as of today [Thursday, September 5].”

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran followed through on Zarif’s threat and has begun installing more advanced centrifuges forbidden by the terms of the JCPOA. That agreement generally limited Iran’s enrichment to first-generation IR1- centrifuge machines; according to the IAEA, Iranian scientists have begun making preparations for installing 164 more advanced centrifuges of the IR2-m and IR4- cascades.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani marking National Nuclear Technology Day in Tehran last year (AFP)

This marks the third time in the last year that Iran has cast off restrictions imposed by the international nuclear agreement in retaliation for the U.S. decision to leave the JCPOA and re-impose sanctions. Ali Akbar Salehi, director of Iran's nuclear energy agency, lay the blame squarely on European shoulders, charging that "unfortunately the European parties have failed to fulfill their commitments,” and adding that “the deal is not a one-way street and Iran will act accordingly as we have done so far by gradually downgrading our commitments."

For his part, French Foreign Minister Minister JeanYves sounded a more optimistic note, projecting confidence that the Iranian measures would ultimately be resolved and saying that "the actions they have taken are negative but not definitive.

They can come back [to full compliance] and the path of dialogue is still open."

BASIJ BRACE FOR UNREST AS AMERICAN SANCTIONS BITE Another move arousing interest among Iran observers came on September 7, when IRGC commander Hossein Salami appointed Brigadier General Gholamhossein Gheybparvar as his deputy

15

13/09/19

This marks the third time in the last year that Iran has cast off restrictions imposed by the international nuclear agreement in retaliation for the U.S. decision to leave the JCPOA and re-impose sanctions. at the Central Security Headquarters, in what many viewed as a bid to prepare for a possible wave of protests. Gheybparvar will assume command of the Imam Ali Central Security Headquarters, a unit which was assigned the task in 2011 of suppressing public protests.

Gheybparvar developed a reputation as a hardline commander when serving in Fars province for attempting to suppress Western-style cultural events, criticizing former President Rafsanjani, and engineering an attack by plainclothes agents on lawmaker Ali Motahari during the latter’s visit to Shiraz in 2014.

Recent developments underscore the need for such preparations. In August, according to the data intelligence firm Kpler, Iranian oil exports declined drastically to roughly 160,000 barrels per day (bpd), a nearly %60 drop from July’s total of 365,000, and barely %7 of the 2.5 million bpd export total prior to the reimposition of U.S. sanctions.

At the same time, American officials took measures to tighten the sanctions regime still further. On September 4, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on a far-flung shipping network used by Iran to export oil, and run by Rostam Ghasemi, Iran’s former minister of petroleum. The Treasury Department’s latest round of sanctions included 26 individuals and entities affiliated with the IRGC, as well as 11 ships, and exposing anyone who owns, operates, or cooperates with them to future sanctions. As Sigal Mandelker, U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, put it: "We will continue to put pressure on Iran and as President (Trump) said there will be no waivers of any kind for Iran's oil."

P

olitics

What John Bolton’s Sacking Means for US-Iran Tensions Experts Say There is Reason for Optimism for a Slight Easing of Tensions and the Revival of Talks Majalla - London President Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton is known as the man who never met a war he didn't like and for managing to be in

the headlines even when he has said nothing in public. With his departure this week over strong disagreements with the President, the top tier of the U.S. government lost its staunchest hard-liner on Iran. Bolton has advocated a tough stance on

16

13/09/19

the Islamic Republic for decades, endorsing a preemptive strike to destroy the country's nuclear program as he filled posts from the White House to the United Nations. Following his resignation, experts say there is reason for optimism for a slight easing of tension and the revival of talks, but little sign of any dramatic shifts in the nuclear standoff that has stoked fears of a new war in the Middle East.

Since withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018, Trump has hit Iran with a raft of harsh economic sanctions as part of the administrations “maximum pressure” campaign to force Iran to renegotiate the terms of the deal, which the president has lambasted as being far too generous to Iran.

White House National Security Advisor John Bolton (R) listens to U.S. President Donald Trump as he and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte talk to reporters in the Oval Office at the White House July 2019 ,18 in Washington, DC. (Getty)

The "maximum pressure" policy is designed, according to Secretary of state Mike Pompeo, to alter Tehran's behaviour by bringing the country to its knees through severe sanctions. "We've now made Iran's economy a shambles," Pompeo told ABC's George Stephanopoulos Sunday, describing the effect of US sanctions. "We think their economy could shrink as much as 10 or %12 in the year ahead." Two days later – a few hours after Bolton’s resignation – Pompeo said Trump could meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani “with no preconditions.” CNN’s Senior International Correspondent, Ben Wedeman, commented that with “Bolton out of the way, such a meeting can now go ahead without much resistance within the Trump White House.”

Sir Richard Dalton, a former British Ambassador to Iran, told CBS news on Wednesday that Bolton’s departure “improves the odds slightly on an easing of the U.S. maximum pressure campaign,” but that from his vantage point, he saw little sign of willingness from Iran or the Trump administration to take meaningful steps back from their entrenched positions.

According to Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, at the very least, Bolton’s exit reduces the chances of a military escalation. “It’s too hard to say if a meeting will happen given the question of whether it’s politically palatable for both leaders,” Kupchan told Bloomberg. “But the likelihood of a meeting

17

13/09/19

According to Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, at the very least, Bolton’s exit reduces the chances of a military escalation. has gone up because one of its main detractors is now out of a job.”

Cliff Kupchan, a former State Department official who now chairs the Eurasia Group risk consultancy, seemed to agree that animosity could ease, but saw no reason to expect a sudden, dramatic change.

"Bolton has been 'Dr. No' when it comes to talks with Iran," Kupchan wrote in an analysis quoted widely by financial news outlets. He said it was "probably still unlikely" the Ayatollah would approve a Trump-Rouhani meeting, but suggested there was now more "upward pressure on the chance of a meeting."

The Guardian’s diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, said that a meeting with Rouhani could only happen if Bolton’s departure is “accompanied by a US willingness to lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports.”

Iranian leaders, at least publicly, have spurned the suggestion of a Trump-Rouhani encounter. Alireza Miroyousefi, a spokesman at Iran’s Mission to the UN, said via text message, “Iran is unconcerned with the internal deliberations of the US. What we are concerned with is the economic terrorism the US wages against our people, and we reiterate that that must fully stop before any speculations.”

One thing all sides agree on is that tensions in recent months have soared, with a spate of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf that have been blamed on Iran and the Islamic republic’s shooting down of an American drone it said was over its territorial waters. John Kilduff, partner of Again Capital told CNBC that Bolton “pressed to attack Iran militarily at almost every turn. I think in the aftermath of that drone attack he almost prevailed but President Trump pulled back at the last minute.”

P

olitics

Boris Johnson’s Options are Bleak And Labor’s aren’t Much Better

By Yasmine El-Geressi and Ali El Shamy Boris Johnson has racked up a new record by losing yet another major vote in parliament on Monday evening, over his second bid to dissolve parliament and hold an early

general election on October 15. This marked the sixth vote the Prime Minister has lost in his time in office and a big win for Opposition MPs and Rebel Tories who have organized a serious of spectacular victories in votes against the government. With parliament now suspended until mid-

18

13/08/19

majority and legally get around the Benn bill, however, as aforementioned, MPs rejected his calls twice.

This puts the PM in a sticky situation as he is unlikely to reach a withdrawal agreement that can pass with the 27 EU leaders who have warned that talks are paralyzed, or persuade Parliament to accept a no-deal by October 19, and he has explicitly ruled out asking an extension, saying he would rather be “dead in a ditch.”

There are therefore few routes left for the PM and the fate of Brexit truly hangs in the balance.

NARROWING OPTIONS

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visits Darnford Farm in Banchory near Aberdeen on September 2019 ,6 in Aberdeen, Scotland.

(Getty)

October, there are no more immediate opportunities for MPs to collapse the government or force Johnson’s hand further on Brexit and an October election has completely been ruled out, making the earliest date the election could be called on November 21, way ahead of the current Brexit deadline.

Also on Monday evening, the Queen gave royal assent to a bill by MPs which requires the government to do one of two things; either reach a new deal with the EU or get Parliament’s approval for a no-deal by October 19. If Johnson fails to get either of those things, the Benn bill requires the Prime Minister to request an extension from the EU, with the bill suggesting that the new deadline becomes January 2020. To get around that, Johnson proposed a general election in the hopes that he can win a

19

13/08/19

New DealSince becoming PM, Boris has been eager to keep no-deal Brexit firmly on the negotiating table. His strategy with the EU has been to remove or tweak the backstop - an insurance policy to ensure there is no hard border with Ireland – while showing the bloc that he is serious about leaving on October 31 potentially without a deal. There are now growing indications that the PM’s efforts are focused on a Northern-Ireland only backstop – a combined agrifoods regime with Ireland appears to be where talks are going. Such an outcome would put some sort of border in the Irish Sea. But Democratic Unionist leader Arlene Foster has branded such a deal as “unacceptable.”

Despite Johnson assuring this week that “there is a way” a new Brexit deal, the reality is, negotiations are not going anywhere fast. At the G7 meeting of world leaders last month, the British PM had promised EU Council President Donald Tusk he would deliver a new set of proposals soon. But at the first of a series of twice-weekly sessions with UK negotiators last week, EU diplomats and officials said that the UK did not put forward any of the "concrete" ideas they had been promised. And with Johnson losing his working parliamentary majority last week when a Conservative MP dramatically defected at the start of his speech after the summer recess, and Johnson then further undermining his position by firing 21 rebel Conservatives who voted in support of the bill to prevent no-deal, there is a sense among EU member states that negotiating with Johnson has become increasingly futile.

Assuming no new Brexit deal emerges out of the next EU council on October 17, the options left for Johnson are few and unappealing.

Test the law to the limits Johnson’s point-blank refusal to ask Brussels for an extension means that he will not give up his Brexit deadline without a fight, and his opponents in parliament are worried after top ministers have said in recent days that the government plans to “test the law to its limits,” implying that they may seek to skirt its requirements.

P

olitics

The law specifies the exact wording of the letter that Johnson has to send to the EU, but it does not exclude the possibility of sending a second letter setting out a different position.

The Daily Telegraph reported that this was one option under consideration in Downing Street. Any such move would also likely be challenged in the courts. Jonathan Sumption, a former senior judge, told BBC radio that such a letter would not be legal.

Some hard-line Brexiters have suggested he become “a martyr� to the cause, and allow himself to be jailed for contempt. But as well as the risk of imprisonment, a Prime Minister refusing to abide by the rule of law would have drastic and far-reaching constitutional consequences and with no real precedent for such a situation, the outcome and how long it might take to reach one are highly uncertain.

And even for a risk-taker like Jonhson, going against the fundamental principles of British democracy would be a step too far.

Lawmakers in parliament's upper chamber have raised concerns that Britain could veto itself, by asking for the delay and then refusing to agree to it. There has been a debate about whether this is possible, but the government has yet to respond directly to those concerns.

Resign as Prime Minister Last week, one senior minister told the Times that if opposition parties refuse to give an October election and if Johnson decides he cannot break his promise to deliver Brexit, he would opt instead to resign as prime minister.

His official representative on Friday repeatedly refused to rule this out when asked by journalists at a regular briefing

Last week, one senior minister told the Times that if opposition parties refuse to give an October election and if Johnson decides he cannot break his promise to deliver Brexit, he would opt instead to resign as prime minister.

in Parliament. Even the Conservative commentator Paul Goodman points out in the Conservative Home on Monday: "If there is an escape from this trap other than resignation, we would love to know what it is."

Under this scenario, Johnson would step down and make way for opposition parties to form a government instead.

Because of the defection of Conservative MP Phillip Lee and Johnson's decision to oust 21 Conservative members of Parliament last week, the prime minister no longer has a working majority in the House of Commons.

If Johnson did resign, the queen would have to look to opposition parties and invite the person who appears most likely to be able to command the confidence of lawmakers to serve as prime minister and form a government.

Corbyn's Labor Party has only 247 seats in the -650seat House of Commons but could command a majority with the support of other opposition parties and independent lawmakers. Corbyn has previously floated the idea of leading a temporary "government of national unity" with the sole purpose of securing a delay to Brexit, before calling a national election. Johnson would then hope to win that election to return to power with a majority in parliament large enough to approve a no-deal exit if necessary. This

20

13/08/19

Britain's opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn (L) speaks with deputy leader Tom Watson after giving his keynote speech on the final day of the Labour party conference in Liverpool, north west England on September 2018 ,26. (Getty)

“muzzled” him has made him appear as a feeble snoozer rather than a no-nonsense British bulldog. That isn’t to say that Brexiters aren’t relishing Johnson’s confrontation with parliament, but if the latter has its way and prevents him from going out without a deal, then the disillusioned Leave voters will grow more frustrated with the Tories.

Not only is the parliament divided over Brexit but so is the Conservative party, while Tory members around the country are dumbfounded by their party’s disarray, Labor is vying to exploit the ruling party’s anguish and finally end it’s nearly decade long governance over Britain.

However, as with anything in this extraordinary time in Britain’s history, the task of ousting the Tory government will not be easy for Labor. Any miscalculation on Corbyn’s part might lead to his political upheaval rather than his political ascendance. As such, Corbyn needs to play his cards right, pick the right allies and find a way to appeal to voters on most of the spectrum (the hardest task).

AUGUST 14 LETTER: A PRELIMINARY MANIFESTO?

would allow him to avoid breaking his promise while blaming Labor for the Brexit delay. He would also then be in a good position to win the next election.

Alternatively, Johnson could be forced to resign by Labor calling and winning, a vote of no confidence when parliament returns in mid-October. If no other party leader can command a majority within the following 14 days, an election would be triggered.

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS FOR CORBYN? You don’t need a magnifying glass to see that Brexit has not been kind for the Conservative Party. Thus far, the party has produced two successive incompetent leaders to take control of the government and May’s miscalculated decision to call a snap election in 2017 only caused the party to lose its majority in parliament, and that is a consequence that is currently causing a pain in the neck for Boris Johnson. Furthermore, the surge in popularity in Farage’s newly formed Brexit Party also shows how the government’s policies have repelled away ardent Brexiters, and while Johnson’s “do or die” stance is trying to remedy that, the way parliament has seemingly

21

13/08/19

On August 14, Corbyn made headlines as he sent letters to the leaders of the Liberal Democrats, Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), Plaid Cymru as well as major rebel Tory figures. The letters asked these parties and figures to support him when he tables a motion of no confidence to oust the Tory government. This would give him 14 days to form a temporary government, the letter stated that said government would not be a Labor one but rather a centrist one composed of Labor, SNP, Lib Dem and Plaid Cymru MPs with Corbyn as a leader. As the leader of this temporary government, he would call a general election and seek to extend article 50, thus extending the Brexit deadline. In the election he would run on a manifesto calling for another EU referendum, in which remain would be an option.

Would this plan work?

A major problem with this plan is that Labor seems to be more focused on securing a power grab from the Tories, rather than preventing a no-deal scenario, and this can be seen in the fact that Corbyn has called for a general election before a referendum. As such, it would appear that if the smaller parties get involved with Labor, then they would be pawns to its grander scheme rather than equal partners. The Liberal Democrats certainly seem to think that, as Jo Swinson, the leader of the Lib Dems rejected the idea outright. One mustn’t forget that the Lib Dems are still suffering from the sting they felt when they were part of David Cameron’s coalition government, and now that they are running as the de-facto remain party they

P

olitics

feel that they have the opportunity to make big gains from remainers in the event of a general election.

On the other hand, the SNP and Plaid Cymru and other small party MPs have shown to be more inclined to join forces with Labor, however there are still some reservations, for example, Plaid Cymru rejects Corbyn’s plans to hold a general election before a second referendum and the party thinks that the order of events should be reversed. Caroline Luca, who is currently the only Green MP in parliament, also shared Plaid’s sentiments.

It still remains unclear whether or not Labor has successfully persuaded opposition parties to join its orchestrated plan; however the recent votes seem to reflect the shared interests that Labor has with its potential allies.

For example, 15 out of 17 Lib Dem MPs, all 35 SNP MPs, all four Plaid MPs and the one Green MP voted with Labor to pass the Benn Bill. As it stands, it seems that Labor has more friends in parliament than the Tories, who only have the DUP supporting it.

IS LABOR BECOMING A REMAIN PARTY? Ever since the 2016 referendum, Jeremy Corbyn’s stances on Brexit have been an enigma. Throughout the last three years, this ambiguity has alienated many of his young voter base who are much more in favor of remaining in the bloc. This alienation was reflected in the previous European Parliamentary elections, which saw the Brexit Party gain the most seats, meanwhile, the Lib Dems, which ran on a remainer platform, gained the second most seats.

If Leave voters are disillusioned by the Conservatives, then Remainers might be equally as disappointed with Labor.

Digging through Corbyn’s history reveals that he has some negative perceptions of the European Union, perceptions that are aligned with those of labor unions back in the 1970s. While it might be hard to imagine now, back during the 1975 European Economic Community (the precursor to the EU) membership referendum Labor was the Eurosceptic

The fact that Johnson now wants a general election to regain his lost majority has disincentivized Labor from playing into the Prime Minister’s whims.

party that wanted the UK to leave the bloc while the Tories was more in favor of remaining. This was because Labor’s policies back then reflected those that favored labor unions, which at the time considered the EEC a free market project that would seek to weaken them. Corbyn has historically had similar views on the EU, additionally, some experts, such as Graham Room a professor of Policy and Social Sciences from the University of Bath, think that Corbyn would prefer to be free from the EU’s regulations when he attempts to rebuild the UK’s public institutions should he become Prime Minister. However, as the topic of the EU has proven to be divisive among voters and his party members, he attempted to steer clear of the topic to avoid severing himself from potential supporters.

While it may now seem that Labor is trying to brand itself as the “remain party”, the fact that it is now in favor of a

22

13/08/19

Anti-Brexit protesters with signs and EU flags lit up with fairy lights stand next to pro-Brexit banners outside the Houses of Parliament in London on September 2019 ,9 as MPs debate. (Getty)

referendum in which voters can vote between a “credible leave option” and remaining shows that it is trying to gain mass appeal by fence-sitting. As it stands, Labor has not been explicit with what kind of leave option it favors, but it has previously stated that it prefers to remain in the customs union and maintain close trade relations with the EU. Similar to the Tories, Labor seems to have its own internal divisions regarding Brexit, as Tom Watson, the party’s deputy leader, has shown to be more pro-EU than Corbyn and has gone on record to say that he wants the UK to stay in the bloc.

CALLING A GENERAL ELECTION: A CAREFUL GAME OF CHESS While calling a general election is part of Labor’s

23

13/08/19

plans, it has not been hasty in doing so, lest they risk losing again to the Tories. Moreover, the fact that Johnson now wants a general election to regain his lost majority has disincentivized Labor from playing into the Prime Minister’s whims. Labor has at least accomplished the first major step of its plan, making it unlawful for Johnson to crash out without a deal without prior parliamentary approval. However, as parliament has now been suspended until October 14, Labor might find itself with few options but to vote in favor of a general election before the current October 31 deadline. For now, the political stalemate continues and both parties eagerly await their foe's next move, however if any side makes any precarious moves, they might find themselves relegated from a stalemate to a checkmate.

P

olitics

A Deal With the Taliban Is Only the First Step Toward Peace The Real Negotiations Are About to Begin

by John Walsh After months of closed-door negotiations in Doha, Qatar, the United States appears close to finalizing a deal with the Taliban that would end Washington’s -18year war in Afghanistan. The agreement would reportedly set a conditional

timetable for the United States to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan in exchange for Taliban commitments to suppress terrorist groups and open peace talks with their fellow Afghans.

The deal is controversial. Supporters (and I am one of them) view the agreement as far preferable to

24

13/09/19

the status quo—a bloody battlefield stalemate— and a necessary first step toward any deal among Afghans to end the war. Critics worry that the deal sells out Washington’s Afghan allies, places naive trust in an extremist group, and provides cover for a troop withdrawal that Trump wants regardless of whether it makes diplomatic or military sense.

Ultimately, though, no U.S.-Taliban agreement will determine Afghanistan’s future. Talks with the Taliban, the Afghan government, and other Afghan parties are far more important, and these are expected to start soon after the U.S.-Taliban deal is announced. Thus the most vital concession that the United States’ lead negotiator, Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, has wrung from the Taliban is not the group’s well-publicized promise not to support terrorism; rather, it is the group’s agreement to at last negotiate with other Afghans, which for years it has refused to do until a timetable was in place for U.S. troops to withdraw. If, as reported, Khalilzad has negotiated a conditional timetable for withdrawal, the actual departure of U.S. troops would be contingent on the Taliban continuing these negotiations in good faith.

(L to R) The Taliban's former minister of agriculture Abdul Latif Mansoor, former envoy to Saudi Arabia Shahabuddin Delawar, former culture and information minister Amir Khan Mutaqi, former deputy education minister Abdul Salam Hanafi, and Taliban negotiator Abbas Stanikzai attend the Intra Afghan Dialogue talks in the Qatari capital Doha on July 2019 ,7. (Getty)

If the intra-Afghan talks that follow any U.S.Afghan agreement succeed, stability is possible in Afghanistan and the U.S.-Taliban deal will have been a necessary precursor. If they fail, this initial deal’s virtues may be for naught. The most important phase in this peace process is just beginning.

MAPPING THE TRANSITION The primary mission of intra-Afghan talks will be to map out a transition period that ends the war and brings the Taliban into Afghanistan’s political system. This will almost inevitably require the Afghan parties to address three issues from the beginning: Afghanistan’s forthcoming presidential election, the precise mechanism for incorporating the Taliban, and a ceasefire.

Afghanistan’s presidential election is currently scheduled for September 28, but Afghans are split on whether it should take place. President Ashraf Ghani, the front-runner, wants to hold the election so that he can win a fresh mandate for negotiations. The Taliban argue for canceling the vote, which they consider an illegitimate product of the post2001- “occupation” of Afghanistan.

25

13/09/19

Ultimately, though, no U.S.Taliban agreement will determine Afghanistan’s future. Talks with the Taliban, the Afghan government, and other Afghan parties are far more important, and these are expected to start soon after the U.S.Taliban deal is announced.

Many other Afghan leaders, notably former President Hamid Karzai, hope to cancel or delay the election because they consider peace a greater priority and fear—rightly—extensive electoral fraud and violence. The election may now be so near that a cancellation is unrealistic, but the parties are likely to debate the issue in the first days of intra-Afghan talks.

Whether or not the election proceeds, Afghans will need to negotiate a process for the Taliban to transition into mainstream politics. Ghani wants the current Afghan government to preside over any transition, while the Taliban and many of Ghani’s other rivals want to create a new interim government. Either way, Afghan leaders will need to define what positions will be open to Taliban representatives. The negotiators must also agree on what the interim government’s core tasks will be: for instance, reviewing the Afghan constitution, devising a program to reintegrate today’s fighters into society, and reforming the security forces. Finally, the Afghan leaders will need to agree on how and when the transition will end and how any interim authority will be dissolved, whether through an election or a national conference to choose its successor.

The top objective for most non-Taliban Afghan leaders will be to negotiate an enduring cease-fire.

Like most insurgents at war with governments, the Taliban view violence as their primary source of leverage. They therefore have an incentive to postpone a permanent cease-fire until the political questions have been resolved. This means that although nearly all Afghans want an immediate end to the fighting—and Khalilzad has

P

olitics

emphasized that a cease-fire must be a part of any final deal—an actual cease-fire may have to wait until the start of a transitional period.

DEFINING THE FUTURE Beyond these immediate issues, intra-Afghan discussions will need to broach the larger questions at the heart of the war—those concerning Afghanistan’s longer-term political future and how the country can begin to rebuild after nearly four decades of civil war. These questions may take years to fully resolve but finding some early convergence will be critical for a successful peace process.

Perhaps the most basic question concerns Afghanistan’s form of government. Nearly all non-Taliban Afghans embrace the post2001democratic system, whatever its flaws. Although Taliban leaders rarely demand the literal return of their draconian 2001–1996 emirate, in which the group banned elections and imposed a strict form of sharia law, they reject the legitimacy of the post2001- system and insist on replacing it with something more “Islamic.” If the Taliban decide

Afghanistan’s presidential election is currently scheduled for September 28, but Afghans are split on whether it should take place. President Ashraf Ghani, the front-runner, wants to hold the election so that he can win a fresh mandate for negotiations. The Taliban argue for canceling the vote, which they consider an illegitimate product of the post2001- “occupation” of Afghanistan.

that a compromise is possible on this point, they may propose some new balance of secular and religious institutions akin to the Iranian system, in which unelected clerics exercise a check on elected officials. If so, the most important debate in the entire negotiation might be over the respective authorities of elected and religious leaders.

Particularly in light of this fundamental divergence over the role and interpretation of religion, the negotiators will undoubtedly need to address the fundamental rights of Afghan citizens, especially women, who were prevented from working or attending school the last time the Taliban held power. Afghan women’s groups are adamant that the country must not revive the abuses of the Taliban regime, and most Afghan leaders at least claim they will prioritize women’s rights in any negotiation. The Taliban are quick to assert that they, too, will protect women’s rights—albeit “in accordance with Islam.” Basic rights for women are now guaranteed by the 2004 Constitution of Afghanistan. Yet they will inevitably come up for discussion, and the parties might well empower

26

13/09/19

An Afghan security personnel walks next to ballot boxes at a warehouse in Herat on September 2019 ,4, ahead of the presidential election set to be held on September 28. (Getty)

oppose impunity for murderers. And whatever happens in the negotiations, Afghanistan’s poor economy will struggle to absorb tens of thousands of young men. Reintegrating these fighters into society will take years of arduous work, even if the parties agree on principles at the outset.

AIM HIGH The Afghan negotiators could begin to address some of the country’s most fundamental issues in their first round of talks. Alternatively, they could aim for something simpler and more immediately achievable, such as a suite of confidence-building measures or a schedule of milestones that puts off resolving core disputes.

a commission to amend or redraft the document.

The international community has long prioritized the treatment of women as a vital litmus test of its willingness to continue to bankroll Afghanistan, something that even the Taliban quietly recognize; this might prove important leverage for donors to prevent any deal from trading these rights away.

The parties should be wary, however, of setting their sights too low. Addressing the major questions concerning Afghanistan’s future will only get harder over time. The world’s attention may move on, Afghan and international parties may become less committed to peace, and outside events may roil the country’s domestic politics.

Nobody expects an immediate grand bargain, but the negotiators may be able to find a sweet spot— for instance, an agreement on the mechanics of the transition process and on a set of principles to guide future negotiations on the longer-term substantive issues. Early talks may not settle on new constitutional language, for example, but they might empower a commission to do so and give it guidance on what can or cannot be changed. Each guideline will chip away at the conflict’s central disputes at a moment—possibly fleeting—when both the government and the Taliban are willing to talk.

Finally, no agreement will be stable unless it meaningfully provides for the enormous population of fighters and prisoners that the war has created. The Afghan government currently holds tens of thousands of battlefield prisoners, most of them Taliban fighters, and the Taliban can reportedly mobilize up to 60,000 men. Most Afghan leaders appear inclined to release the majority of these prisoners, forgive most crimes, and help fighters find gainful employment as the price of peace. Even a magnanimous approach, however, comes with serious challenges.

Ending Afghanistan’s war will require all parties to make difficult compromises. An intra-Afghan settlement is the only plausible way to achieve stability, however; neither a hasty U.S. withdrawal nor an inertial U.S. presence can bring it about.

Washington must do whatever it can to help intraAfghan negotiations succeed—most importantly by reinforcing that the departure of U.S. troops depends on the talks’ progress. This offer of a conditional U.S. withdrawal was necessary to create the current moment of opportunity, but ultimately, peace in Afghanistan depends on Afghans themselves.

Disillusioned fighters could drift toward groups such as ISIS. The Taliban may resist demobilizing even under a peace agreement. Victims may bitterly

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

27

13/09/19

P

olitics

Pope Francis’ Holy Diplomacy in Ukraine Why Washington and the Vatican Don’t See Eye to Eye

by Victor Gaetan

Poland. Those days are now over.

The Holy See and the United States once had a close partnership.

Under U.S. President Ronald Reagan, for instance, the CIA provided regular briefings to Pope John Paul II, as the Vatican coordinated with Washington to support democratic change in

Nothing exemplifies the decline of this special relationship like Pope Francis’ diplomacy in Ukraine. In the last year, U.S.Russian rivalries have played out in that country through the division between factions of the Orthodox Church. In the last

28

13/09/19

year, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church decisively split from the Moscow patriarchate, with the explicit approval of the United States. Francis did not follow the U.S. lead and instead cautioned Ukrainian Catholics not to meddle in the Orthodox proxy war.

The pope has used his relationships with important players on all sides of the dispute—including in Moscow—to calm nerves.

He has succeeded insofar as he has coaxed the antagonists into seeing one another’s humanity, which cut through the hostility in turn.

Francis’ discreet, behind-the-scenes mediation is of a piece with the approach to diplomacy he outlined in Evangelii Gaudium, his first papal exhortation, in 2013. In that exhortation, Francis emphasized four principles: that the whole is greater than the part, that unity prevails over conflict, that realities are more important than ideas, and that time is greater than space. Although abstract on first glance, the rules genuinely summarize his strategy, and reflect his desire to remain neutral among competing geopolitical powers, including the United States. This neutrality, in turn, is helping to restore the Holy See to its status as a major diplomatic player.

WHOLE AND FREE

Pope Francis flanked

by Major Archbishop of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church Sviatoslav Shevchuk, visits the Santa Sofia Basilica on January ,28 2018 in Rome, Italy.

(Getty)

Francis’ first guiding principle—that the whole is greater than the parts—can be seen in his reluctance to take sides within Ukraine’s religious conflict. Catholics make up no more than ten percent of Ukraine’s population, but they have long played an outsized role shaping national identity. The largest Catholic community is the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church (UGCC), created in 1596 when a group of Orthodox bishops agreed to recognize Rome while maintaining Byzantine-rite liturgy. (Ukraine also has much smaller Latin and Ruthenian Catholic communities—a legacy of western Ukraine’s history as Polish and Austro-Hungarian territory.)

The UGCC has firmly attached itself to the pro-Western side of Ukraine’s internal conflict. One might have expected Francis to do so as well. In Buenos Aires, he was friendly with a UGCC archbishop, a former Soviet soldier named Sviatoslav Shevchuk, who at that time served a sizable Argentine diaspora. Shevchuk now leads the UGCC and was a prominent supporter of the 2014 Maidan protests that touched off the current conflict. Shevchuk has encouraged Christians to confront “terrorist violence and overt military aggression from abroad,” a clear reference to Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine.

The pope has rejected Shevchuk’s confrontational approach.

When the archbishop described the conflict as a Russian “invasion,” Francis responded by condemning it as a “fratricidal war.” In February 2015, the pope politely told his Ukrainian bishops to stay out of politics, explaining that “the sense of justice and truth, before being political, is moral.”

29

13/09/19

Francis’ discreet, behind-the-scenes mediation is of a piece with the approach to diplomacy he outlined in Evangelii Gaudium, his first papal exhortation, in 2013.

For Francis, all conflict can be traced to interests, whether military, economic, or those related to national pride. But he is no more suspicious of Russian imperialism than of what he sees as U.S. imperialism—both Moscow and Washington, in his view, are equally self-interested and destructive. He therefore refuses to prioritize one group of Christians over another. The whole of Christianity is sacred, so peace must be found among its warring parts.

THE UNIVERSAL CHURCH Francis’ second principle emphasizes unity over conflict. The unity he means to preserve is not only among fellow Catholics but also between Catholics and their Orthodox brothers.

Eastern Orthodoxy is a family of 14 autonomous local churches.

The largest of these is the Russian Orthodox Church, with more than 100 million believers. In the 1960s, Rome sought to heal the schism with Eastern Orthodoxy, but the Russian church was locked behind the Iron Curtain. Pope Paul VI made peace with Athenagoras, the patriarch of Constantinople and “first among equals” within international Orthodoxy. In tandem, the U.S. government, which did not trust the communist-controlled leaders of the Russian church, promoted Athenagoras, a U.S. citizen, as global Orthodoxy’s main man. When Athenagoras was chosen as patriarch in 1949, he arrived in Istanbul on President Harry Truman’s presidential plane.

Pope Francis has grown particularly close to the current patriarch of Constantinople, Bartholomew. They’ve traveled together in the Holy Lands and Greek islands and visited each other at home, and this June Francis gave a relic of St. Peter to Constantinople. Yet Francis and his diplomats are also close to Patriarch Kirill and the Russian Orthodox Church. In this, he builds on the work of his two predecessors: in 1989, Pope John Paul II agreed to restore some diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union, and in 2010, Benedict XVI—who saw a deeply Christian Russia as an ally against the secular relativism of western Europe—fully normalized relations between Moscow and the Holy See. Under Francis, the Vatican’s relationship with the Russian

P

olitics

church—now backed by the Russian state—has flowered. Partly as a result of the pope’s pastoral prudence regarding Ukraine, in 2016, Putin green-lighted the first personal encounter between Francis and Kirill. At Havana’s international airport, the two leaders signed a joint declaration expressing shared religious, social, and political views. Three of the declaration’s 30 points pertained to the Ukrainian conflict, and the leaders pledged to hold the line against either church’s “taking part in the confrontation.”

The UGCC leadership fumed, but in the pope’s view, pursuing Christian unity—Christ’s own last wish—requires Rome to function in a balanced, loving way. If Francis had openly leaned toward Lvov, he would have fanned the flames of religious war.

Instead, he has preached restraint to those over whom he has most influence, UGCC leaders, hoping to model behavior for the Russian Orthodox Church in its relations with the faithful in Ukraine.

Moscow and Constantinople are now dueling over the status of a new Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which Bartholomew declared autocephalous (or independent from the Russian Orthodox Church) in 2018. The Russian church claims that Bartholomew was strong-armed into the declaration by former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the U.S. government. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has declared Washington’s support for autocephaly in Ukraine. And again Francis ordered Ukrainian Catholics not to get involved.

KEEPING IT REAL The third of Francis’ principles is that realities are more important than ideas. Living through Argentina’s “dirty war,” Francis (then known as Jorge Bergoglio) grew to despise ideology.

He has brought this attitude to Ukraine, where he prefers to address the realities of poverty and war-weariness rather than adjudicate competing claims. Between 2016 and 2018, he raised 18$ million for some 900,000 Ukrainians, most of them

In the Vatican’s view, the United States’ post–Cold War foreign policy has been overly militaristic and dismissive of the benefits of peaceful diplomacy.

Orthodox, who either resided in the conflict zone or had been displaced from their homes. Food, medicine, social services to treat PTSD, and renovations to winterize homes and install boilers were the main expenditures. The aid has been directly delivered to desperate people and supervised by the papal nuncio, who said the pope told him that his role is more charitable than political.

Regarding the ecclesiastical conflict over the autocephaly of the Ukrainain Orthodox Church, Vatican diplomats don’t think the faithful are easily manipulated. The majority of Ukrainians belong to the Orthodox church affiliated with the Moscow patriarchate and will not casually leave their bishops and local priests. And many Orthodox believers do not feel compelled to declare themselves members of one “brand” or another. Indeed,

30

13/09/19

Pope Francis pose with Ukraine military and their relatives at the Saint Peter's square, in the Vatican, at the end of his weekly general audience on May 2019 ,22. (Getty)

than space—is the fourth principle shaping the Holy See’s diplomacy. In the pope’s view, politics is preoccupied with taking positions, gaining advantage, and occupying space in a manner that mimics military action. He prefers to advance slowly, through personal encounters that gradually build love and mutual respect.

Recent polling data bear out Francis’ intuition. As time passes, regular Ukrainians are becoming less polarized and more willing to “reconcile diversity,” to use Francis’ phrase from Evangelii Gaudium. Earlier this year, a Kiev public opinion poll found that among Ukrainians, favorable feelings toward Russia had increased from 30 percent in 2015 to 57 percent today.

CHRISTIAN DIPLOMACY The pope’s neutral line on Ukraine is the latest example of how Catholic doctrine and Vatican diplomacy have diverged from U.S. foreign policy preferences since the end of the Cold War. Pope John Paul II, for instance, sent top diplomats to personally dissuade U.S. President George W. Bush from invading Iraq, prophetically warning Bush that the war would lead to countless casualties and long-term regional turmoil, including the scapegoating and repression of Christian communities.

In the Vatican’s view, the United States’ post–Cold War foreign policy has been overly militaristic and dismissive of the benefits of peaceful diplomacy. There have been notable exceptions—Rome strongly supported the Obama administration’s nuclear deal with Iran and its rapprochement with Cuba. In general, however, the Holy See is concerned that the United States has stopped exercising its once significant moral influence as a country striving to calm nerves, encourage liberal order, and facilitate peace, opting instead for counterproductive bellicosity. since Poroshenko’s defeat in the presidential election this April, the Ukrainian government has abandoned its attempts to force Moscow-affiliated parishes to join the autocephalous Ukrainian church. In July, Ukraine’s new president, Volodymyr Zelensky, tweeted, “I urge the leaders of the churches to dialogue, in order to unite the faith, and not divide Ukrainians. In unity is our strength and our future.” It was a statement after Francis’ own heart.

TAKE IT SLOW Francis believes that God’s hand is shown in history, and that his job is to encourage reconciliation without trying to control the outcome. With patience and persistence, good things evolve over time. This conviction—that time is greater

31

13/09/19

Yet the United States’ aggressiveness has opened up space for the Vatican. Between America’s loss of prestige and the multiplication of conflicts around the world, there are fewer disinterested actors aiming to defuse conflicts and create space for alternative solutions. This week, the pope is embarking on a three-country tour of aoutheastern Africa, where he will deploy dialogue—informed by the four principles sketched above—as his primary method of diplomacy. Francis’ itinerary, which includes a visit to Mozambique to encourage a new peace agreement and a trip to Madagascar to bolster the country’s fragile transition back to constitutional government, suggests that there is no shortage of places eager for the Holy Father’s input.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

P

olitics

To Cure Ebola Will Take More Than a Pill What Congo Must Do to Prevent Future Outbreaks

by Laura Seay Two experimental drugs used to treat the Ebola virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo are working, medical researchers say. Infected people who took the medications as part of a trial survived at rates of 71–66 percent, compared with 30 percent for those who were not vaccinated and did not receive

medication. Ninety percent of patients who received treatment within the first days of showing symptoms survived. These therapies have the potential to transform Ebola from a nearcertain death sentence into a difficult but survivable disease.

Congo especially stands to benefit. The country has experienced ten Ebola outbreaks since 1976, and its health authorities are adept at identifying and isolating infected individuals, tracing and monitoring exposure networks, and controlling the spread

32

13/09/19

of the virus. But as the current outbreak in the eastern province of North Kivu has shown, no amount of medical preparedness can overcome the difficulties of fighting an outbreak under conditions of insecurity.

Over the last 12 months, more than 2,000 Ebola patients have died in eastern Congo, a region that has been racked by episodic instability for the last two decades. This Ebola outbreak is the second deadliest ever, eclipsed only by the one that claimed more than 11,000 lives in West Africa between 2014 and 2016. And the virus keeps on spreading: health workers confirm an average of 81 new cases each week, according to the World Health Organization.

Congo’s Health Ministry and the World Health Organization have led the international response to the outbreak, and their measures have proven increasingly effective. But the new drug therapies alone can’t stop this or any future epidemic.

Eradicating Ebola in Congo will require building public trust among Congolese and working with community organizations in order to reach vulnerable populations and overcome governance issues.

A DAUNTING GROUND ZERO

Members of the International Federation of the Red Cross and the Congolese Red Cross go door-to-door in the Beni neighbourhoods, northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, to listen to families about their fear of the Ebola virus and the response teams on August 2019 ,31.

(Getty)

North Kivu sits on the far eastern edge of Congo, along the borders with Uganda and Rwanda. The region was the epicenter of two major wars that drew in many of Congo’s neighbors in the late 1990s and the early years of 2000. A 2002 peace settlement officially ended those conflicts but failed to account for local disputes over land and citizenship rights in the region, so Kivu remains fraught with violence. According to researchers at New York University, roughly 130 armed groups are currently active in North and South Kivu Provinces alone. The number and nature of these groups constantly change, but they are part of the insecurity that has continued since the wars began in 1996.

A militant group called the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) poses an especially big problem for Ebola responders. Active in the Beni territory of North Kivu, which is the hardest hit by the outbreak, the ADF terrorizes civilians through murder and looting. Along with other armed groups such as the Mai Mai Mazembe¬—a coalition of militias in the region—the ADF has helped make Beni one of the most violent places in Congo, the site of an estimated 31 percent of all civilian killings in the region.

The violence has severely constrained the Ebola response. To contain an epidemic, health workers must be able to move quickly to identify infections, isolate patients in safe medical facilities, and trace the patients’ contacts. Responders also need to move equipment, medication, and vaccines into affected areas. All of these tasks are complicated by armed groups, which maintain roadblocks to collect bribes, attack medical facilities to loot medicines and other supplies, and kidnap

33

13/09/19

Congo’s Health Ministry and the World Health Organization have led the international response to the outbreak, and their measures have proven increasingly effective. But the new drug therapies alone can’t stop this or any future epidemic. people traveling through the areas they control.

At the same time, insecurity has hastened the spread of the disease. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, a Geneva-based group that tracks people who flee their homes but stay in their country, more than three million Congolese are currently displaced as a result of conflict, and 1.8 million were newly displaced in 2018 alone. Another 850,000 Congolese are refugees in other African countries, according to the United Nations. All this movement raises the risk of Ebola transmission and increases the difficulty health officials encounter in determining who may have come into contact with the virus. Should someone infected with Ebola be among those fleeing across borders to refugee camps, or to family and friends in distant cities, health authorities would have a very difficult time finding them before they exposed others to the disease. And because the symptoms take up to three weeks to present, someone unknowingly infected with the virus could easily travel, become ill, and infect others. Just such a scenario unfolded in July, when a pastor who had conducted healing services in Butembo—a city with many Ebola cases—took a bus to Goma, then fell ill with the disease. Authorities have monitored his fellow bus passengers to prevent further spread of the disease.

If today’s medical responders succeed in North Kivu, they will have improved on the government’s long record of failure—a history that makes health workers’ jobs all the harder. For nearly a quarter century, the Congolese government has failed to deliver basic public services in the region. Most ordinary citizens have come to expect little besides corruption, inefficiency, and violence from public officials, so they don’t trust anything the government says, including about Ebola. As a result, Congolese don’t take symptomatic family members to health centers, hide ill people in their homes to avoid detection, and undertake traditional burial rituals without informing state authorities. All of these activities expose caregivers to infection themselves, causing the number of cases to skyrocket.

Congolese are equally distrustful of international actors,

P

olitics

including aid agencies, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the United Nations. Congolese concerns about what foreign aid workers are up to are easily dismissed as conspiracy-mongering (fallacious rumors include the claim that patients are being injected with the disease). But such suspicion rises from long experience of foreigners saying one thing and doing another. The Belgians looted Congo’s natural resources under the guise of a “civilizing mission.” The CIA supported (if not actually carried out) the assassination of the country’s first post-independence prime minister.

And Rwanda and Uganda have both repeatedly invaded in support of rebel movements, while the world’s largest UN peacekeeping mission has done little to actually bring peace.

Given that history, one can hardly blame the Congolese for being wary of outsiders.

Consider, then, the unusual safety precautions taken by Ebola responders. Dozens of sick people enter hospitals, where foreigners keep patients out of view of families and friends, and few ever return. Families are told these people have died, but their bodies are never produced. Everything that happens is a mystery, so rumors fill the void. That groups of angry, frightened civilians have attacked Ebola treatment centers is hardly surprising under the circumstances.

TOWARD A REAL CURE Despite all the obstacles and misunderstanding, there are promising signs that this epidemic can be brought under control. The new Ebola vaccine has prevented most health workers from contracting the disease from their patients. And although the Congolese government is weak, its Ebola response and vaccination programs are not. In Congo and in neighboring countries, extensive vaccination programs run by the state and NGO partners have been underway since the outbreak began.

Church health authorities are at the forefront of the Ebola vaccination, prevention, and treatment efforts. Their role matters because churches were among the few social institutions to survive the state’s collapse.

While isolated cases have made it to Goma and across the border to Uganda, health workers quickly contained them, and there have been no major outbreaks beyond northern North Kivu.

The very weakness of the Congolese state supplies another reason for hope. Because the government has been so dysfunctional for so long, Protestant and Catholic churches run much of the country’s public health system and manage most public hospitals and clinics. Under this system, church-run health facilities are part of the public health system, for which NGOs help supply funding and implement programs.

Church health authorities are at the forefront of the Ebola vaccination, prevention, and treatment efforts. Their role matters because churches were among the few social institutions to survive the state’s collapse: while the government, economy, army, and just about everything else ceased to function as instruments of public good, the religious institutions survived.

Almost every Congolese is a member of a church or mosque, to which congregants look for leadership and information.

To make the most of these robust religious networks, and of the high levels of trust Congolese place in them, Ebola responders

34

13/09/19

A healthcare member inoculates a man for Ebola suspicion to take precautions against the disease in Butembo, Democratic Republic of the Congo on July ,27 2019. (Getty)

should work more closely with religious leaders, especially to spread information about early Ebola symptoms and effective treatment. Ebola responders should provide regular briefings to pastors and imams and encourage them to incorporate Ebola information into weekly services. Responders should also work with religious leaders to develop alternative rituals that allow families to properly commemorate their loved ones while preventing Ebola from spreading.

Churches are not the only bastions of the public’s trust.

Responders should enlist the help of Congolese civil society organizations and local NGOs such as Goma’s HOLD-DRC to disseminate information, answer questions, and assuage fears.

These and other reputable community-based organizations enjoy high levels of trust. Their representatives speak local languages and can communicate lifesaving information in culturally sensitive ways.

Local NGOs can even help Ebola responders contain the disease among migrants fleeing violence. Responders currently run health-monitoring posts along major roads and in refugee camps. These are necessary but not sufficient. Local NGOs can help find potentially infected people in urban areas that host

35

13/09/19

large numbers of unregistered, displaced Congolese. Donors should finance and train leaders in these urban centers to reach out to displaced people, in the languages the migrants speak.

During the 16–2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, too, trust was of the essence. One simple innovation—the use of transparent isolation tent walls that allow family members to see and visit with infected family members—helped to dispel rumors and calm fears. Health workers in Congo should make the most of the lessons their colleagues learned from the last epidemic.

The trajectory in eastern Congo is positive, but the outcome will not depend only on the hope the new drugs provide. Working closely with religious institutions and community organizations, coming up with innovative solutions, and building trust within the population will ultimately allow responders to defeat the Ebola virus in eastern Congo. But given the daunting challenge responders face—an extremely insecure environment, population movements, and high levels of mistrust—it will be an uphill battle.

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.

P

olitics

Is It Time for Britain to Adopt a Codified Constitution Why Britain’s Constitutional Arrangements Aren’t Antiquated

by Majalla-London Despite all its shortcomings, Brexit has some redeeming factors. For one thing it has highlighted how disenfranchised the country’s voter base feels. It also gave smaller parties and independents a chance to take away votes from the country’s two dominant parties. Furthermore, the anguish and division that the withdrawal process has caused for both the public and government might very well dissuade any other EU member state from doing the same thing.

But perhaps the biggest revelation that came from Brexit

was just how susceptible the British political system is for constitutional crises. As of the writing of this piece, the British parliament has been suspended until October 14, something Prime Minister Johnson wanted so that he would have no obstacles preventing him from taking the country out of the EU, deal or no deal. However, parliament successfully passed the Benn Bill into law before it was suspension, and now the Prime Minister cannot pursue a no-deal without parliamentary approval. This political deadlock has been the result of precedential convention.

Although prorogation has happened before, this current one

36

13/09/19

MP Hilary Benn and MP Yvette Cooper of the Labour Party leave the Cabinet Office on January 2019 ,17 in London, England.

(Getty)

is the longest since 1945 as such this current predicament is in some ways unconventional.

While, Britain’s uncodified constitution has been a source of pride for the country, current circumstances do raise the question of whether or not there is a growing need for a codified one that prevents the political establishment from resorting to unconventional means and uncharted territories to get what it wants.

Britain is not the only country with an uncodified constitution, as Canada, Israel and New Zealand make up the other states with such an arrangement. This begs the question, why is a codified constitution more popular?

Well for one thing, a codified constitution clearly outlines the rights and duties of citizens and the state into a single document, thus making it more accessible to both parties, the citizens in particular. By contrast, Britain’s constitution is derived of multiple sources such as the acts of parliament, legislation enacted by ministers and common law. As such, common citizens living in states with uncodified constitutions will likely have a much harder time determining they’re rights and duties and the relationship they have with the state.

There are many advantages to an uncodified constitution, though. For instance they tend to be more flexible, which lends it to be more easily amended. The malleability of the British constitution is what allowed the UK to easily enact the Scotland Act 1998 and the Government of Wales Act, which gave both countries their own devolved legislative bodies. It also allowed the Human Rights Act to become law, thus making Britain liable to the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). This kind of system also ensures that no single document has supremacy over parliament’s sovereignty, thus in theory ensuring that country’s legislative body (which represents the people) always has the means to provide checks over the executive body.

When looking at other states’ constitutions, there seems to be a pattern of inflexibility and rigidness. For example, the US congress has historically had a hard time proposing amendments to the country’s constitution. Ever since the constitution was put into effect in 1789, Congress has only proposed 33 amendments, of which only 27 have been ratified. Anyone who avidly follows US politics knows that the second amendment in the constitution has been subject to great scrutiny and debate both among the public and in Congress, yet thus far no changes have been made to it. One might make the argument that the lack of changes to amendment is the result of the US political system being susceptible to lobbying, but the point still stands that the inflexibility of its constitution doesn’t help matters. Furthermore, while a codified constitution is more accessible to the public, sometimes states can defeat that purpose by making their constitutions too long. For example, the Indian constitution has 448 articles, and has had 103 amendments since it was first enacted in 1950.

Nine of such amendments occurred in the last decade. This

37

13/09/19

The malleability of the British constitution is what allowed the UK to easily enact the Scotland Act 1998 and the Government of Wales Act, which gave both countries their own devolved legislative bodies.

Very old (1911-1909) law reports in a law library. (Getty)

can make it harder for the population to keep up with the constant constitutional changes.

This brings us back to the original question in hand; does the UK need to adopt a codified constitution for more concision and clarity? The short answer is no.

Even though the political deadlock can be attributed to Britain’s constitutional flexibility, countries with codified constitutions aren’t immune to such developments. Earlier this year, the US suffered its longest ever government shutdown due to executive-legislative disagreements over funding for Trump’s wall on the US-Mexican border.

Even though the malleability of the British constitution does leave it vulnerable to political crisis such as the one it currently finds itself in, one must not forget that the sovereignty that parliament has over its constitution is what enabled it to quickly pass the Benn Bill into law, thus preventing Johnson from plunging the country into further crisis just to fulfill some fantastical promise of out

by October 31, “do or die”. That isn’t to say that the current political system isn’t due to needed reforms, for example the Commons might consider passing a law that prevents the Prime Minister from proroguing parliament during times of national emergency. But as it stands, there is little reason to suggest that Britain should make radical changes to its constitutional arrangements.

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1765- september - 13/09/2019

2

Hong Kong’s Carrie Lam: The ‘Nanny’, the ‘Good Fighter’, and ‘Beijing’s Puppet’ www.majalla.com

C

ulture

Renee Zellweger Brings Personal Insights to Her Challenging Role as Garland in ‘Judy’ How Zellweger Relates to the Late Actress

by Amy Kaufman Renee Zellweger knows what it’s like to be a public target. At 50, she’s lived half her life in the spotlight, weathering tabloid stories about her weight, plastic surgery and highprofile relationships (Jim Carrey, Kenny Chesney).

personal, intimate relationships and the private choices you make.”

In Rupert Goold’s “Judy,” which opens Sept.

27, Zellweger plays Garland in the final months of her life. It’s 1968 and the “Wizard of Oz” star at 46 is no longer America’s sweetheart. Millions of dollars in debt, she’s in London, the only place she can find a So when it came to playing Judy Garland paying gig. Away from her children, she’s — whose struggle with substance abuse, drinking heavily and popping the pills that financial troubles and custody battles were Hollywood studios forced on her during her all grist for the mill — little surprised the adolescence. She turns up late or out-of-tune actress. Not even learning that in the last during her sold-out run at the cabaret club years of Garland’s life, British audiences Talk of the Town, inviting scorn from critics literally pelted her with bread rolls when they and ticket holders. were displeased with her performance.

In writing the screenplay, based on “It wasn’t shocking because I’ve never known playwright Peter Quilter’s 2005 musical any different,” Zellweger says. “It might “End of the Rainbow,” Tom Edge (“The have been a little less direct then than it can Crown,” “Lovesick”) did not reach out to the be today, where you will be unapologetically Luft children or Garland’s older daughter, asked about the nature or health of your Liza Minnelli, who recently said, “I do not

40

13/09/19

American actress Judy Garland (-1922 1969), born Frances Gumm, during a press conference at the Savoy Hotel, London, for the film premiere of 'I Could Go On Singing'. (Getty)

approve nor sanction the upcoming film about Judy Garland in any way.” Lorna Luft had already written a memoir, 1998’s “Me and My Shadows,” so he felt that “a little distance” from the children would prove useful in remaining neutral.

Zellweger, however, says she felt torn about speaking to Garland’s kids.

“I wanted to reach out not to ask questions, except to maybe ask what they would like or hope to see,” she says. “I figured that whatever was for public consumption, they had already shared at this point. I could find that. I wouldn’t dream of calling and asking, ‘Hey, what else can you share here? Because that’d be so helpful.’ To me, what they haven’t shared is treasure and that belongs to them and that’s where it should stay.”

The actress tried to connect with Minnelli through a mutual friend but wasn’t successful.

Luft was diagnosed with a brain tumor just

41

13/09/19

“Judy” director Goold says he liked the idea of Zellweger as Garland because the star so often has been “presented almost as a gargoyle,” the filmmaker says. as filming began. “That was a time for her and her family, not for a stranger to approach her about things that ultimately don’t matter, right?” Zellweger says. Instead, she dug into publicly available material, watching old films, listening to concert recordings and reading numerous Garland biographies, some written by those who claimed to be close to her like her last husband, Mickey Deans.

“Every night, there was something new

C

ulture

to go to sleep with, reading and watching to make sure there wasn’t a tiny little gemstone hidden in the mix,” she says.

“But considering the source was a challenge — trying to understand the truth or the depth of the relationship. Having had some experience with that myself, maybe I knew to sniff it out and be skeptical about ‘firsthand accounts.’ Everybody has a bad day and can be misunderstood.”

“Judy” director Goold says he liked the idea of Zellweger as Garland because the star so often has been “presented almost as a gargoyle,” the filmmaker says. He hoped Zellweger could channel Garland’s warmer side. But he was also didn’t want the “Bridget Jones” star to do a note-for-note impression.

“That’s what people do on cruise ships,” Goold says. “ Zellweger has sung in films before, most memorably as Roxie Hart in the 2002 adaptation of “Chicago.” But she says she was scared when Goold requested that she

In Rupert Goold’s “Judy,” which opens Sept. 27, Zellweger plays Garland in the final months of her life. It’s 1968 and the “Wizard of Oz” star at 46 is no longer America’s sweetheart.

Millions of dollars in debt, she’s in London, the only place she can find a paying gig.

belt out Garland’s classics on set instead of in a studio before filming.

“There was freedom in knowing (she had) nights where there were misses and compromise and inability to access her full instrument,” Zellweger acknowledges, referring to the decline in Garland’s vocal abilities. “ Having that in the back of my mind was liberating. I could just be. It also brought a little bit of truth to the experience, because from my understanding, she was

42

13/09/19

Jess Cagle and Renee Zellweger attend SiriusXM's Town Hall with Renee Zellweger hosted by SiriusXM's Jess Cagle on September ,05 2019 in Santa Monica, California. (Getty)

afraid that she would not perform at the level to which people had expected from her and she experienced stage fright. So the mix made it very real and true.”

Unlike in the play, Edge says he included a glimpse of Garland’s adolescence in the film to give audiences a sense of what she overcame. MGM studio head Louis B. Mayer referred to her as his “little hunchback,” and Garland revealed later in life that he touched

43

13/09/19

her inappropriately.

“I think she certainly felt like the way that she was treated in those studio days was at least partly responsible for the things she struggled with later in life,” Goold says. “The pity of it is that this terrifically funny and talented and charismatic kid ended up on the other side of that system carrying so much damage. Yet at the same time, she endured and found her way back to her audience.”

Po

rt

ra

it

Hong Kong’s Carrie Lam: The ‘Nanny’, the ‘Good Fighter’, and ‘Beijing’s Puppet’ Majalla – London Carrie Lam, a Roman Catholic, was born in Hong Kong and comes from a working class background.

1982, as a civil servant, the Hong Kong government funded her one year-diploma course at Cambridge University, where she met her future husband, Chinese mathematician Lam Siu-por.

In 2004, she was appointed Director General of London Hong Kong Economics Trade Office – the city’s representation in the United Kingdom.

She returned to Hong Kong in 2006 to take up the position of Permanent Secretary for Home Affairs, and climbed through the ranks. In 2007, Lam gave up her British nationality when she was appointed Secretary for Development by Chief Executive Donald Tsang, becoming one of the principal officials.

During the 2014 pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, Lam served as Chief Secretary for Administration under then Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying. Protesters occupied key areas in Admiralty and Causeway Bay for 79 days. After the protests ended, she held talks with five student leaders. The talks focused on the students’ demands that China reconsider its ruling on how candidates for elections were chosen. She rejected the demands saying: “As far as their position is concerned I’m afraid we can only agree to disagree.”

In 2017, Lam was sworn into office by Chinese President Xi Jinping on the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return of Beijing. In her acceptance speech she said: "Hong Kong, our home is suffering from quite a serious divisiveness and has accumulated a lot of frustrations. My priority will be to heal the divide." But pro-democracy

supporters, who had widely contested Hong Kong’s election system during the 2014 Umbrella Movement, immediately warned of what was to come.

Ever since she was elected to her seat, fears have amplified that the city’s first female leader will aid Beijing in tightening its control over the city, effectively undermining the “one country, two systems” framework that guarantees Hong Kong its high degree of autonomy, including an independent justice system. These fears have been fuelled by several Beijing-tainted cases in recent years, including clandestine detention of five Hong Kong booksellers on the mainland and the suspected abduction of a Chinese tycoon in Hong Kong by mainland agents. Lam event went under the nickname “the nanny” for her complying loyalty to her Beijing-friendly bosses. She was also referred to as the “good fighter,” referring to her tough stance as she reportedly never backs down in a political battle, threatening to resign if she does not get her way.

But Lam’s time in office has been marred by her government’s push to make amendments to extradition bill proposed in 2019, which she argued was necessary to protect the city against criminals. It was introduced after a high-profile case where a Hong Long man was accused of murdering his girlfriend on holiday in Taiwan but could not be extradited. However many people felt the law would open the city to the long arm of Mainland Chinese law and that Hongkongers could be victimised under the Mainland Chinese legal system.

On 9 June, a record high number of protesters marched in the streets against the extradition bill

44

13/09/19

and called for Lam to step down; with protest organizers estimating over 1.03 million people attended the protest. Following violent clashes on June 10, Lam spoke the following morning, admitting that the size of the rally showed there were "clearly still concerns" but refused to withdraw the bill. On 16 June, nearly two million protesters, as claimed by the organisers, flooded the streets demanding a full withdrawal of the bill.

The government issued a statement in the evening where Carrie Lam apologised to Hong Kong residents and promised to "sincerely and humbly accept all criticism and to improve and serve the public" and passage of the bill was suspended.

Protests continued throughout the summer of 2019 as protestors renewed demands for the complete withdrawal of the bill, free elections, an independent inquiry on police brutality, the release of arrested protesters and for the government to retract the characterization of the protests as "riots".

In early September 2019, the embattled leader finally fully withdrew the controversial bill, marking a dramatic U-turn for Lam, after denying that she had offered to resign over her handling of the crisis earlier in the same week after a recoding published of her at a meeting with business leaders was leaked to Reuters.

Amid the social upheaval, Lam saw her support in August 2019 fall to a record post-colonial low of 17 per cent, with those opposed hitting 76 per cent. Protesters do not trust Lam and have said they will continue to take to the streets until all their demands are met, with protests entering their 14th consecutive week last Sunday. On Sunday, protesters could be heard chanting, "Five demands, not one less."

H

ealth

Quick-start Guide to Nuts and Seeds Tiny but Mighty, Nuts and Seeds Deliver a Protein, Fiber, and Nutrient Punch with Every Bite

by Harvard Health

open fire. But you don't have to go to all that trouble to increase your intake of nuts and seeds.

Fall and winter are on the way, along with the traditions of baking pumpkin seeds after carving jack-o-lanterns or roasting chestnuts over an

Just bone up on some of the most nutritious choices, and start crunching your way to

46

13/09/19

seeds of trees; peanuts, however, are the seeds of a legume.

Many, including walnuts and cashews, grow inside leathery fruits, with the nut corresponding to the peach pit (also a seed) within a peach.

Others, such as hazelnuts and chestnuts, are classified as true botanical nuts (hard, dry fruits that don't open to release a separate seed).

The benefits: Nuts are flavorful little packages containing healthy unsaturated fats (see "Fat and calorie content per ounce of selected nuts and seeds"), protein, fiber, and other nutrients. For example, peanuts and pecans contain lots of B vitamins; almonds are rich in calcium and vitamin E; walnuts have lots of folate, vitamin E, and alpha-linoleic acid (ALA, an omega3- fatty acid). And all nuts have magnesium.

"In just a handful of nuts, which is about an ounce or a quarter of a cup, you get a lot of bang for the buck. They contain anywhere from 3 to 7 grams of protein per ounce, 1 to 3 grams of fiber, and 160 to 200 calories," says registered dietitian Kathy McManus, director of the Department of Nutrition at Harvard-affiliated Brigham and Women's Hospital.

The risks: "If you eat more than one or two handfuls of nuts per day, you're adding extra calories -- maybe too many -- that can take the place of other healthy foods and add weight," McManus warns. She also advises that you stay away from buying nuts with added sugar or chocolate. "But salted nuts are fine, if you eat less than an ounce," she says. "For 1 ounce of most nuts, the sodium content is less than 100 milligrams."

Try these: Almonds, Brazil nuts, cashews, hazelnuts, peanuts, pecans, pistachios, pine nuts, and walnuts.

Mix of various nuts background from above. (Getty)

better health.

SEEDS

NUTS

Unlike the seeds we call nuts, culinary seeds come from vegetables (such as pumpkins), flowers (such as sunflowers), or crops grown for

Nuts are actually the seeds of plants. Most are the

47

13/09/19

H

ealth

a variety of uses (such as flax or hemp).

tablespoon, but 10 grams of protein.

The benefits: "Seeds have mostly healthy fats, some fiber, and about 150 calories per ounce.

And they do have protein, about 5 to 9 grams per ounce," McManus notes. "Flaxseeds and chia seeds are also good sources of plant-based omega3- fatty acids, with two or three times the ALA of walnuts."

The risks: Doctors once believed that eating seeds could lead to diverticulitis, an infection of diverticula (pouchlike structures that sometimes form in the muscular wall of the colon and bulge outward). However, the link between diverticulitis and seed consumption is unproven.

In fact, seeds are rich in fiber, which is crucial for gut health.

Just a tablespoon of seeds yields surprising nutrition. In chia seeds, for example, you'll get 2 grams of protein, 4 grams of fiber, and 78 milligrams of calcium. A tablespoon of flaxseed has 2 grams of protein and 3 grams of fiber.

Hemp seeds contain only 1 gram of fiber in a

Just a tablespoon of seeds yields surprising nutrition. In chia seeds, for example, you'll get 2 grams of protein, 4 grams of fiber, and 78 milligrams of calcium.

Try these: Chia seeds, flaxseeds, hemp seeds, pumpkin seeds, sesame seeds, and sunflower seeds.

How to use them Adding nuts and seeds to your diet is simple: stay within the serving guidelines of an ounce or two per day, and eat the ones you like. Sprinkle a few into salads, sauces, vegetables, or whole grains such as brown rice or quinoa.

"Make a cashew or pine nut pesto," suggests McManus. "Add nuts or seeds to hot cereal or yogurt. Put nuts and seeds in a stir-fry. Or include some nut flour in baking recipes."

No matter how you enjoy them, you'll wind up with extra flavor and texture in meals and the added benefits of better nutrition.

48

13/09/19

Nuts are flavorful little packages containing healthy unsaturated fats (see "Fat and calorie content per ounce of selected nuts and seeds"), protein, fiber, and other nutrients.

49

13/09/19