Samantha Ravich: Saudi Vision 2030 Can Be a Light Unto Iran

Can France Stem the Populist Tide?

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Much remains uncertain about the Trump administration and its policies and priorities in national security

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Issue 1631 - February 10/02/2017

Samantha Ravich: Saudi Vision 2030 Can Be a Light Unto Iran There's No Better Argument Against the Iranian Revolutionary Model Than Saudi Success www.majalla.com

A Weekly Political News Magazine

Issue 1631 - February 10/02/2017

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Sidestepping Big-Toe Woes

Can France Stem the Populist Tide?

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A New Political Dynamic Emerges

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Samantha Ravich: There’s no stronger argument against the Iranian model than a successfully implemented "Vision 2030" Washington: Mostafa El-Dessouki Samantha Ravich served as Deputy National Security Advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, and served in the White House for more than five years as the Vice President’s representative on Asian and Middle East Affairs as well as Counter-Terrorism and CounterProliferation. She was the Republican Co-Chair of the Congressionally-mandated National Commission for Review of Research and Development Programs in the United States Intelligence Community, and remains a prominent American voice on international security, cyber, and the future of intelligence. In her interview with Majalla, she shared impressions of her recent visit to Saudi Arabia and meeting with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. She appraised the Kingdom’s “Vision 2030,” the geo-strategic states, and the role Americans can play in supporting it. She reflected on the limitations of American public discourse on the Middle East, and offered a readout on the emerging policies of the Trump Administration.

the true importance and groundbreaking nature of this endeavor didn’t really sink in until I spent those hours with the Deputy Crown Prince, the Foreign Minister, and other ministers involved in it. The document itself is a policy document, and there’s a lot in there that, like any policy document, is wordsmithing, grand gestures — but getting on the ground and looking these people in the eyes as they talk about the reasons for it, and the need for it, really underscored the criticality that economic, societal, and even political changes must be done—both to ensure the future of Saudi Arabia and the broader stability of the region.

I had just finished a project looking at the changing maps and borders of the Middle East, so I had studied the demographics of the Kingdom. I know the kind of challenges Saudi Arabia faces in terms of population, economics, and the need to give the next generation an opportunity. On all of those things the trends aren’t good unless they are consciously changed. Thinking through how to really change a Q: What do you make of “Vision 2030” having met country — a culture — is at the heart of Vision 2030.

It’s a monumental task, but its time has come. Saudi with its architects in Riyadh?

Arabia is at a crossroads. They will either find a way A: I went to Saudi Arabia at the end of August as to engage the next generation so that they want to part of a high-level bipartisan delegation. And while I stay in Saudi Arabia and make a life for themselves, had read Vision 2030 and understood the framework, have a family, add to the value of the country not just

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Samantha Ravich

economically but socially, and have Saudi Arabia literally be the country that others in the region look to — or the challenges that already exist between different sectors and strata of the population will only get worse and undermine the country and its ruling elite. So this is a grand endeavor that must have both the leadership and the nation standing behind it for it to succeed. Now the question is, is the leadership going to be able to fulfill its side of the bargain and get the “Vision” accepted by the populace?

From my perspective — as a researcher who follows Saudi Arabia, with full knowledge that I’m an outsider — one of the biggest challenges is that there is a powerful segment in Saudi Arabia that doesn’t want to change. Why would it? It’s doing well the way it is. It’s doing well without a greater opening of the economy or the society. Any type of opening is going

to lead to new power centers, which the old power centers will naturally see as a diminution of their power base. Who will win this heated battle? And it will get more heated as Vision 2030 gets further implemented. I think part of the key to success in this is having a significantly larger portion of the population see their future in Vision 2030 and be willing to lend their voice and their support to it, causing those who stand against it to be seen as the people who want to hold Saudi Arabia back and not give it the future it deserves.

The Death of a US Navy SEAL in Yemen Has Started a New Conversation About the Country

If Saudi Arabia is able to successfully move forward

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with Vision 2030, it’s hard to imagine a stronger argument against the Iranian model — not just that, but a stronger argument to really open the eyes of the Iranian population. Can you imagine the conversations that could occur throughout Iran, if Saudi Arabia is able to post a number of “wins” in the “win column” on the Vision, in terms of opportunity, education, openness, modernization, economic liberalization, all of those things. Among the Iranian population, many would be saying, “Can you believe this? Saudi Arabia gets to have these things and we, the Persian

people, don’t get to have these things because of our leadership?” Every real win that the Saudis can rack up in terms of solidifying Vision 2030 should be broadcast into Iran.

Q: You spent several hours with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. What did you make of him?

A: August was the first time I had met the Deputy Crown Prince. I didn’t know what to expect other

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The delegation including Samantha Ravish in a meeting with King Salman Bin Abdul Aziz

than what I’d read in the open press and impressions of others. He reminded me a lot of a number of young, dynamic leaders of younger countries that I’ve met — it’s interesting and a little ironic, because Saudi Arabia is itself a relatively young country but also an old established area. His clear commitment is that 2030 has to be the way of the future if it is going to succeed and survive as a working, dynamic country in this unsettled region. It was clear that this guy is firmly committed to making this a success. The other thing that was striking was his expansive knowledge of a whole host of geopolitical topics. It was a two-hour meeting, and it ranged from the internal challenges and opportunities in Saudi Arabia, to the demographics, the economic challenges, and the societal challenges. He was equipped with the facts, figures, and numbers. But he also spoke at great length about foreign policy. We had a long conversation about Iran and the threats, and about potential new areas of partnerships with other countries in the region including Israel. We had a long conversation about what he sees Russia as trying to achieve in the region and about China and its new base in Djibouti.

He was not a one-trick pony who was going to talk to the Americans about only one thing. This is a leader who understands that Saudi Arabia is actually much more than just a Gulf nation. He understands and is able to convey its importance to the broader region and well beyond. That came clearly through as he spoke about great power politics and transnational trends such as proliferation and terrorism.

seen. But the recent death of a Navy SEAL in Yemen certainly started the conversation. All of a sudden on the front pages of newspapers is the word Yemen.

And I’m sure there’s a lot of newspapers throughout the US — from Ohio to Louisiana to Oregon — that have to show a map and show where Yemen is located. It’s going to be worrisome for a lot of people that the first time they’re hearing about Yemen is with the death of a Navy SEAL. The American people and the Administration they just

President Trump's Defense Secretary and CIA Chief Are Popular Within Their Agencies

elected are tired of the complications in the Middle East. And Yemen is a perfect example of it. It is messy and violent, with constantly shifting internal alliances and no obvious path towards a more peaceful future.

The role for America is not clearly defined. What might be easier for Americans to understand is that Saudi Arabia is confronted by an outside power agitating against it in the country right next door. It would make more sense to Americans that no country wants a strong insurgency backed by the Iranians on its border, which would use that territory as a launching base to Q: Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies are in the throes expand throughout the region. But again, tying that of a grueling conflict in Yemen. How do Americans to vital American interests is not clearly apparent for perceive it? many people, and it will be a lift for a US policymaker to want to educate an electorate about another problem A: Regarding Yemen, most Americans don’t know area in the Middle East. So there’s going to have to be anything about that country, its history, or the Houthis a much more significant educational effort undertaken and Iranian involvement. When most Americans to explain why this is important to US interests. It will think about the Middle East, they’re thinking about have to be backed up with hard facts, and shown how Iraq, Israel, Iran, now Syria. But Yemen, really for stability in Yemen is important to the stability of the most Americans it seems like it’s somebody else’s region and of Saudi Arabia, and that that is critical for problem and should stay somebody else’s problem. US interests in the region. And even with that, it is not I think that mindset, like it or not, is much more a given that the end of that process will yield more prevalent now. President Trump got elected on the people in the administration saying, “We get it, there basis that the US is not going to get further embroiled needs to be greater US involvement in Yemen.” in complicated conflicts we don’t understand that don’t have a clear path of resolution and should be on The new Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, knows somebody else’s plate. Whether or not that mindset Yemen very well. He had a Yemen portfolio at Exxon. will be educated and potentially evolve is yet to be I don’t know where he comes down on Yemen and its

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importance to the region and US in terms of regional stability, but I assume he will have a significant say in how the US government thinks about this issue.

Q: You recently carried out some research on the future of national borders in the Middle East.

Kindly share some of the highlights.

A: The general nature of the research was to imagine what the borders would look like if certain actors in the region could redraw Sykes-Picot. If you can imagine what the goals and desires are of the state and non-state actors are, you can have a better idea of possible future flashpoints as well as places that need to be better protected. For instance, if you gave Iran a blank map of the area, how would it draw its borders? What would it say are the reasons for these expanded borders? What would ISIS say and do, if they could? We posited that if Iran could draw its borders, it would draw the entire Persian empire.

It would say, “This is historically ours. We’re an expansionist power. We made it clear in our founding documents in 1979 that we’re a revolutionary power, and that we intend to reclaim our lost territory.” We looked at the use of Iranian proxies to undertake this plan. Clearly the Houthis, for example, are part of that network. By contrast, from our standpoint, Saudi Arabia was never an expansionist power. And in this respect, it is very, very different from Iran. But we pondered what the Kingdom might need to do to preserve its borders when there are other hostile states that want to make inroads. There is a rationale for strategic defense in-depth: To protect your own borders, you need to secure areas outside of your current configuration, but that's very different than the behavior of an expansionist power.

Q: There appears to be considerable political volatility in the U.S., with visceral opposition to President Trump from a sizable proportion of the population. What impact would domestic polarization be likely to have on the implementation of a coherent American foreign policy?

A: As to whether the new US Administration will be able to implement its foreign policy agenda given the

divided US electorate, I think that much of the anger among those who opposed Trump will focus on US domestic issues. The Supreme Court battle, for example, is going to suck up a lot of the “battle space.” Beyond the Supreme Court there are banking and financial reforms, Obamacare, environmental laws, immigration, and so on. The more complicated foreign policy issues, unless there’s a major disruption, will take a little more of the backseat. So in answer to your question, I don’t think the domestic polarization will tie President Trump’s hands on his overseas engagements that much. I think he’ll be strong in terms of his convictions of what he wants to do and he will get it done. And he is aided in this by the incredibly talented, confident, and popular new agency heads he has appointed.

Defense Secretary Mattis is winning rave reviews at the Department of Defense. The military is eager to hear how he wants to move out on certain issues important to them. The CIA is very comfortable with their newly appointed director, Mike Pompeo.

All signs point to him, in turn, appointing his upper management from a cadre of seasoned professionals, people the rank and file will be very happy with.

After a number of years of demoralization, they’re excited about the new leadership. In the Department of Homeland Security, General John Kelly is regarded as a “rock star.” That agency is very forward-leaning on international issues, so having

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This is a great opportunity for the US to broaden its engagement not only with the Saudi government but with its citizens

Mohammed bin Salman, the deputy crown prince

someone of Kelly’s experience and stature is a big plus. The newly confirmed Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson will be, I think, tremendously important to make the State Department function better. Here is a man who led a company, Exxon, that was many times larger in scale and scope and budget than the State Department. He knows the complications of the world, and how to make deals. Think about it: He has negotiated everything from drilling rights to trade routes to international finance. He has lived and breathed big geopolitical issues. This is also a man who was front and center in the Middle East during the time when Iran hacked Saudi ARAMCO. Tillerson understands cyber-enabled economic warfare – that is, an adversary’s use of cybertechnology to attack an economy in order to weaken it militarily. And I think that the Secretary of State, as well as other agency heads and even the White House, are greatly concerned about such cyberenabled economic warfare, and are looking for new partnerships to help deter and defeat this threat.

Q: Returning briefly to “Vision 2030,” the plan calls implicitly for deepening cooperation with the U.S. beyond the realm of government.

What opportunities do you see for new forms of engagement between the two countries?

A: First, more people in the United States must

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realize that the US will benefit from a successful implementation of Vision 2030: We need Saudi Arabia to be a stable country that progresses throughout the 21st century, because a stagnant, backwards-looking Saudi Arabia – one that will arise if Vision 2030 fails — is more brittle and fragile, and that’s not good for the US. The US should think about lending its expertise to Saudi Arabia for Vision 2030 on a number of fronts. Yes, there are the financial capacities to play an important role in the Aramco IPO. But also in terms of helping Saudi Arabia create a much more efficient, effective economy that can fund entrepreneurs at the startup level, we have some of the best expertise. That kind of startup culture is the way you get the younger generation excited about the future. You have a good idea, this is how you can get funding for it, this is how you get assistance to make the idea into a reality, into a prosperous enterprise. This is a great opportunity for

One of the biggest challenges is that there is a powerful segment in Saudi Arabia that doesn’t want to change the US to broaden its engagement not only with the Saudi government but with its citizens.

Saudi Arabia is an extremely fascinating country.

Only a tiny number of people in the US know anything about it — what it looks like, the history of it, its geography, its people. The lack of more in-depth— and personal—understanding by America for Saudi Arabia is, in some ways, odd, given the depth of the government-to-government relationship. But I think it’s critical that the Saudis find a way to expand peopleto-people engagement with Americans. Especially at the present time, when a great many Americans who had never voted before have found their voice and are newly empowered.

O

pinion

Much remains uncertain about the Trump administration and its policies and priorities in national security By: Dennis Ross* Much remains uncertain about the Trump administration and its policies and priorities in national security. For any new administration, it takes time to get a clear picture of where it is headed. With a president who some are calling the “disrupter in chief,” it may take longer—and not simply because he desires to shake things up. This president also likes to be unpredictable.

He clearly also likes to show he acts quickly on campaign promises like, for example, his controversial Executive Order on refugees. Amidst the uncertainty and court challenges, decisions are being made and patterns are beginning to form.

For those in the Middle East who are watching and wondering, here are some of the questions whose answers will reveal much about the direction of the new administration—at least toward the region.

Are the Secretaries of State and Defense Important DecisionMakers?

Both Rex Tillerson and General James Mattis in their confirmation testimonies were very clear in staking out the importance of our alliance structure. Moreover, General Mattis is his trip to South Korea and Japan was strong in reaffirming our commitments, especially against North Korea but also China. The notion that our commitments might be dependent on whether each contributed sufficiently to their own defense did not hang in the air. It was not apparently part of the discussion—on the contrary, the reliability of the United States as an ally was the main message.

I am not trying to suggest that President Trump does not want allies to pay their fair share; no doubt, he does and the fact that he has made this an issue in public at least during the campaign and the transition may give allies an incentive to show they are doing more to meet their obligations. My point in raising the more traditional postures toward the allies that Tillerson and Mattis have adopted is take note that if they have real weight

and authority in the decision-making process, US foreign policy may not appear to diverge as much as some may expect.

Indeed, should President Trump choose to delegate much of the day to day responsibility to Mattis and Tillerson—and defer to them as he has already indicated he will do to Mattis on the use of torture—the US priorities in national security may reflect more continuity than change.

Now that does not mean policies will remain unchanged.

Clearly, President Obama’s broad priorities in national security fell within the mainstream of the American internationalist traditions. But the way he carried out policy, his perception of the limits of hard power, his reluctance to get embroiled in Middle Eastern conflicts, all had profound effects on the image of the United States. And, it already appears that President Trump wants to convey an image of greater strength. Still, process matters and if one is looking for indicators of how and what the Trump administration will do on national security, it is worth seeing if the president defers to his key cabinet officials.

How Will the Trump Administration Deal with the Russians in Syria?

The President’s clear instinct is to cooperate with Putin in Syria. With Russia and Turkey cooperating that may create an opening for the Trump administration as well. The more Russia cooperates with Turkey, the less it may do so with Iran.

However, to date, the Russians have abetted the power of Iran and the Shia militias in Syria. The shortage of Syrian military forces has put a premium on the Shia militias in occupying the territory reclaimed by the Assad regime. And, absent an effective ceasefire, there is no doubt that the Russians will continue to depend heavily on the Iranians and the Shia militias.

But at this point, a durable ceasefire along with a de facto partition in Syria—with different zones of control, probably is in Putin’s interest. The Russians have achieved their main objectives in Syria—Russia is the central arbiter, the Assad regime has been saved and is secure; and Russia now has

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air and naval base access. Moreover, Russia’s interest is in ending the conflict; not in helping the Assad regime take back “every inch.” And, for a real ceasefire, Russia needs Turkey and the influence it wields over an important part of the Syrian opposition. To be sure, it also needs the Saudis, Qataris, and Emirates given their ability to influence other elements of the opposition—and they are far less likely to go along with anything that seems to strengthen the Iranian position in Syria.

Here is the interesting question for the Trump administration: will it make it clear to the Russians that our willingness to cooperate depends on their distancing from Iran? This becomes an important measure of whether cooperation with the Russians can actually help in the struggle against ISIS. Should the Russians seek to use the Iranians and the Shia militias with the Assad regime in Raqqa or presently al Bab, they are almost certain to deepen the very sectarianism that fueled ISIS’ rise in the first place. The Trump administration has its own questions to sort out with Turkey and the Kurdish Protection Forces (YPG) and whom to be relying on to liberate Raqqa. However, if it opts to work with the Russians to fight ISIS while they use the Iranians, there will be a contradiction in its policies: it is hard to undercut Iranian power in the region if it is being abetted in Syria.

Will the Trump Administration Restore Traditional Partnerships in the Region?

Certainly, the new administration has already sent one signal that is reassuring to the key Arab states and Israel in this regard: it shows little hesitancy in being tough toward the Iranians in public. The Obama administration frequently seemed reluctant to do anything that the Iranians would see as provocative, fearing that it might play into the hands of hard-liners in Iran.

The tone now toward Iran is different, with the president and his national security advisor already having “put Iran on notice” in response to its ballistic missile test. To be sure, that also creates a standard by which to measure the administration.

Putting the Iranians on notice may not be the equivalent of the Obama red-line, but everyone will be watching to see what it means in practice if the Iranians conduct another ballistic missile test or engage in some other provocative behavior.

As noted earlier, however, the larger issue for America’s traditional friends in the region is whether there will be consistency in the administration’s policy toward Iran. Does it accept there is a larger struggle over the balance of power in the region that pits Iran against its Arab and Israeli partners and is it prepared to work with them to limit the Iran’s reach and threats throughout the area? That requires working to contain the Iranians and the Shia militias in Syria not acquiescing in the strengthening of their hold. It also requires real planning with its partners to develop options for countering the Iranian use of the Shia militias and raising the costs to them for their

aggressive behaviors. A good place to start would be a more active interdiction policy for stopping the Iranian shipment of arms throughout the region.

Of course, if the administration is determined to restore traditional partnerships, it needs to focus not just on countering the Iranians. As important as that may be in the eyes of America’s key Arab and Israeli partners, they will also want to see what it is prepared to do with them. How will it work with them bilaterally? Does it see a stake in the success of the Saudi National Transformation Plan? Does it have a strategy for working bilaterally and multilaterally to shore up the Egyptian economy? Can it work with them on improving governance?

Will it find ways to translate bilateral security cooperation into more collective and integrative defense mechanisms?

Conclusion One article is not going to raise every question whose answer will give insight into the direction of the Trump administration.

The upcoming Trump-Netanyahu meeting will surely offer insights on the approach to Iran, priorities in the region, and the level of president’s interest on the issue of Israeli-Palestinian peace and preserving a two state outcome. My purpose here was to highlight the importance of the decision-making process—and the role of two key Cabinet officials—and what early decisions on Russia, Syria, and Iran will tell us about the national security priorities of the Trump administration. * American Middle East envoy Dennis Ross has served in the Administrations of Presidents Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, and is counselor and Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Washington.

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Dennis Ross*

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olitics

Can France Stem the Populist Tide?

A New Political Dynamic Emerges By: Carlo Invernizzi Accetti The upcoming French presidential election offers a primer on the turbulent politics of our times. We are witnessing the collapse of the traditional divide between left and right, as well as the parties associated with it. In its place, a new opposition is emerging between nationalist populism on one hand and liberal technocracy on the other. At stake is the very model of society—and democracy—that has been dominant in the West since the end of the Cold War. French politics in the past few decades has been characterized by a relatively stable alternation in power between a center-right party (recently renamed the Republicans), standing for market liberalization and traditional social values, and its center-left rival (the Socialist Party), which stands for more social welfare and economic redistribution.

While these two parties disagreed on the degree of state intervention in the economy, there was a basic consensus on the welfare-state model as well as on France’s commitment to European integration and multilateralism in international affairs.

Today, these parties are but shadows of their former selves. Facing historically low approval ratings, the incumbent Socialist president, François Hollande, decided not to seek re-election. His former prime minister, Manuel Valls, lost in the primaries against the outsider Benoît Hamon, whose signature proposal for a universal basic income succeeded in mobilizing support from the far left of the party’s base but seems to have little chance of being taken seriously by the broader electorate.

On the Republican side, the primaries were won

by another initial outsider, François Fillon, who also proposed a radicalized version of the party’s traditional platform. His recipe for a “shock therapy” of market liberalization, coupled with a flaunted religious conservatism, proved attractive to a rump of the party’s base, but is seen as an obstacle in obtaining the support of the more centrist electorate needed to win in the general election.

Moreover, Fillon’s campaign has recently been beset by allegations he hired his wife as a fictitious aide while serving as a member of parliament. By reaffirming his belonging to a political class that is widely perceived as corrupt and self-referential, this scandal may even deal a death-blow to his campaign.

It is not clear, however, who could step up to replace him now, after the primaries have been held.

Either way, it is striking that the leaders of the two parties that once dominated French politics are now both predicted to be excluded from the second round of the presidential election. Even together, they are polling less than 35 percent of the electorate at the first round. The real struggle for power is elsewhere.

The first main contender is the leader of the National Front, Marine Le Pen, who has consistently led the polls for the past few months. In the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election, several commentators have likened her anti-establishment rhetoric and flaunted social and economic protectionism to that of Donald Trump: a comparison she has herself invited in the hope of turning it into an electoral advantage. Less remarked, though, is the way her political platform scrambles traditional political categories and distinctions.

The National Front is typically described as a far-right

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party. But whereas its economic nationalism and antiimmigrant rhetoric do indeed borrow from traditional right-wing discourse, Le Pen has also emerged as the candidate most prominently defending the welfare state and the interests of the working class.

For instance, she has proposed a tax on imports that would be used to fund a direct cash subsidy to those in the lowest income brackets and also promised to launch a massive project of “re-industrialization” of the national economy. Perhaps unsurprisingly,

her most solid support comes from areas that were previously dominated by the Communist Party.

The other main contender is Emmanuel Macron.

Previously a banker at Rothschild, he briefly served as economics minister under François Hollande before leaving the government in August 2016 to found his own movement called En Marche! Its trademark claim is to be “neither left nor right wing” but rather “doubly liberal” in both social and economic affairs.

Macron’s youth and dynamism—as well as his

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Candidate for the 2017 French Presidential Election Marine Le Pen delivers a speech during her meeting at the occasion of her 'Assises de la présidentielle' at the Cite internationale.

(Getty)

pro-European and not-so-anti-immigration stance— have quickly made him a darling of the country’s mainstream as well as the international press. But Macron’s policy proposals have been singularly vague and, without an established party machine to back him, it is unclear from where he would draw his support within the legislative bodies, were he to succeed in winning the presidency.

Until now, the most striking thing about Macron’s candidacy has been his capacity to somehow combine an anti-establishment appeal stemming from his novelty and youth with the technocratic credentials coming from his experience as a high-profile banker.

movement through his own charisma (and business network) . In neither case can the question of “internal democracy” even really be posed.

Finally, perhaps the most salient element of convergence between Le Pen and Macron is the way in which they have attempted to name the new political divide that will replace the categories of left and right. At the launch of her campaign on Sunday in Lyon, Le Pen claimed that the key political struggle of the future is that between the partisans of a “rootless globalization” on one hand and “patriots” on the other. At a simultaneous counterrally in the same city, Macron explained that En Marche! stands for “progress” against “conservatism” and “reaction.”

What Le Pen means by “rootless globalization” is more or less what Macron means by “progress.” That is, a form of social and economic liberalism that strives for increased openness in society: openness to trade, to immigration, as well as to a multiplicity of different moral and religious standards. Conversely, what Le Pen means by “patriotism” is not far from what Macron means by “conservatism” and “reaction”: A form of social and economic protectionism that represents the ‘outside’ as a threat to domestic industry, and therefore jobs, but also to national identity, religion, and culture.

At stake in this confrontation is the social and economic model that has been dominant in the West since the end of the Cold War, based precisely on the gamble that the benefits of openness could compensate for the loss of established mechanisms of social and economic protection. As political scientist Hanspeter Kriesi has recently shown, however, this gamble—the gamble of globalization - produces both “winners” and “losers.”

There is therefore a concrete conflict of interests underlying the contemporary struggle between nationalist populism on one hand and liberal technocracy on the other. In order to prevent this from degenerating into a zero-sum game that would strain the democratic fabric of Western societies, it is urgent to find new ways of bridging the social fissure that globalization has produced, either by making openness more inclusive, or protection less exclusive.

The leader of the National Front, Marine Le Pen, has consistently led the polls for the past few months

The question remains, however, whether it will be possible to continue running as an outsider while essentially standing for a perpetuation of the status quo.

A confrontation between Le Pen and Macron in the second round would mark a new age in French—and European—politics. Despite the notable differences between them, there are also some striking points of convergence. First and foremost is that both claim to be “neither left nor right wing”: a slogan they have in fact both been using explicitly to mark their separation from the established political class (in spite of the facts that Le Pen has been a professional politician for most of her adult life and that Macron was a prominent member of the incumbent government).

Second, both Le Pen and Macron claim to have a direct relationship with the electorate, in which the traditional institutions of political mediation between the electors and their representatives -i.e. political parties and the media - are presented as obsolete.

This is reflected in the fact that both are more or less identified with their political machines. Marine Le Pen inherited the leadership of her party from her * CARLO INVERNIZZI ACCETTI is Assistant Professor of father through a dynastic logic that now pitches her Political Science at the City University of New York niece as her main successor. Macron created his own (City College) (This article was originally published on Foreign Affairs)

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A new opposition is emerging between nationalist populism and liberal technocracy

E

conomy

Guyana Strikes Oil

What the Windfall Means for the Country-and the Region By: Raúl Gallegos *

even bigger basket case than is its neighbor, Venezuela.

Nearly 40 years ago, tragedy struck Guyana Fortunately, the government of President when a religious zealot with major charisma, David Granger appears intent on avoiding such Reverend Jim Jones, convinced nearly 1,000 a debacle. Granger, a retired military man, of his followers to hole up in their socialist took over in 2015 after a -23year chokehold commune and commit mass suicide by drinking of the leftist People’s Progressive Party. His cyanide-laced Kool-Aid. The “Jonestown” administration is setting up new laws to shape massacre earned top billing in the news. On its the budding oil sector into a top oil producer; cover, Time magazine ran a photo of dead bodies these include a local content law that forces oil strewn next to a vat filled with the poisoned companies to hire locals, a new oil regulatory agency, taxation legislation, and the creation of drink. an infrastructure and savings fund, too.

Guyana now faces another threat of self- Meanwhile, he has promised oil companies a destruction but on a much larger scale. The tiny welcoming business environment that respects South American country of roughly 800,000 private property, and he has sought advice people recently discovered a massive amount from resource-rich Canada and Norway on of oil in its territorial waters. (Venezuela also how to set up a sovereign wealth fund to save the oil riches that should begin to flow in 2020. claims that territory.)

The U.S. energy giant ExxonMobil, which made The country also plans to join the Extractive the discovery, suggests the existence of anywhere Industries Transparency Initiative, a set of global between 800 million and 1.4 billion barrels of standards, to ensure accountability and address high-quality crude, worth at least 44$ billion at graft. In other words, the Granger administration current prices, or 15 times the country’s total is saying all the right things.

GDP. That’s an awful lot of cash for a country But history shows that vast amounts of cash whose capital city still has dirt roads.

Of course, oil wealth in and of itself won’t make people do dumb things. Around the world, destroy Guyana. But mismanaging the money too many are drinking the populist Kool-Aid, certainly will. If Guyana fails to take appropriate convinced that demagogues with power and steps, its politicians could end up blowing the a checkbook can solve society’s problems, and Guyana is not immune. Guyana’s former largest fortune in the country’s history.

In the process, they might turn Guyana into an President Bharrat Jagdeo, the leader of the leftist

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populist People’s Progressive Party, is eyeing a return to office in 2020, no doubt salivating over Guyana’s newfound riches. The letters to the editor of the local newspaper, Stabroek News, a major institution in Guyana, recently featured opinions by locals on what to do with the money when it flows. One suggested borrowing money against future oil flows so that the government

can spend it as soon as possible. For a poor nation with weak institutions, a culture of graft, and a tendency toward ethnic strife, such plans spell trouble.

Complicating matters, a major diplomatic showdown over the oil is in the works. Venezuela has long claimed nearly 40 percent of Guyana’s

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Prince Harry leaves Eugene F. Correia International Airport on the final morning of an official visit to the Caribbean on December 2016 ,4 in Georgetown, Guyana.

(Getty)

E

conomy

President David Arthur

territory- land and sea-as its own, and most of that territory is flush with crude. The United Nations has given the countries one more year to agree on a solution before it hands the mess over to the International Court of Justice. (The court is expected to side with Guyana.) Plus, the oil find is a crown jewel for Exxon, and the company will likely do all it can to defend it. Although the United States’ relationship with Venezuela has deteriorated, the United States has cultivated close ties with Guyana. That will likely continue under the Trump administration, with Rex Tillerson, Exxon’s former boss, now heading the Department of State. Of course, it would be tragic for Guyana to win this dispute only to become the new Venezuela by wasting its oil bounty.

mismanaging resource wealth. Giving money directly to individuals leaves less cash in the hands of politicians and encourages citizens to hold leaders accountable for how oil wealth is managed. The alternative could condemn Guyana to a world where politicians rule and citizens obey.

Guyana can still walk back from the ledge. The country should look to the U.S. state of Alaska, which not only saves oil money for future generations in a fund but also hands out a yearly oil dividend check to its citizens from its annual returns. The mechanism has been widely credited with helping Alaska avoid the type of communal suicide that typically accompanies politicians’

Critics of the dividend check argue that people get little cash, especially when populations are large. They also point out that the mechanism does not fully eliminate corruption. Guyana’s population is small, however, and the poor could benefit from the dividend. And any problems with identity fraud to claim checks would likely be more manageable than controlling runaway

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The tiny South American country discovered a massive amount of oil in its territorial waters

spending by politicians would be.

Next door, Venezuelans have rolled their eyes at the proposal, but most recent newspaper headlines attest to Venezuela’s penchant for self-destruction at the hands of homegrown populism.

Guyana can avoid this fate. The Granger government should pursue the right safeguards to prevent its oil fund from becoming a petty cash reserve for the president. Guyana should also have stringent rules for how the fund’s capital is invested and spent, limiting its use to infrastructure, education, and the like. Failure to do this will turn Guyana into a tragedy that not

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Oil wealth in and of itself won’t destroy Guyana.. Mismanaging the money certainly will only will make headlines but also will ruin the lives of future generations. * Raúl Gallegos, head of the Andean political analysis unit for consulting firm Control Risks, is the author of Crude Nation: How Oil Riches Ruined Venezuela (Potomac Books 2016).

(This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs).

H

ealth

Sidestepping Big-Toe Woes Bunions and rigidity are two of the most common problems with the big toe..

Both are easily treated Harvard - Majalla

the toes. Pointed-toe shoes (which force the big toe inward) and high heels (which put more pressure For many women, bunions and rigidity are two of the on the toes) are major culprits. As the big toe bends most common-and painful- problems with the big toe. inward, the joint at the base is pushed outward, forming the characteristic bump.

Both are easily treated.

Mother Goose may be wrong. It probably wasn't the little piggy, but the big piggy, who cried all the way Treating bunions home. Hallux (the medical name for the big toe) is If you've developed a bunion, it's a good idea to see more likely to be in pain than any of the other toes a podiatrist who can evaluate your bunion and suggest because it's involved in two of the most common foot solutions. Your bunion will benefit from many of the ailments-arthritis and bunions-both of which can occur same remedies used to treat other joint pain—applying after years of going to market, often encased in an ill- ice and taking an over-the-counter nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID) like ibuprofen (Advil, fitting or inappropriate shoe.

The big toe is especially vulnerable, explains Dr. Motrin) or naproxen (Aleve, Naprosyn) for a few days.

James P. Ioli, chief of the podiatry service at Harvard- If you're at elevated risk for heart disease or stroke, affiliated Brigham and Women's Hospital. Its position acetaminophen (Tylenol) is a safer choice, although it and length set it up for stubbing and other injuries. won't relieve inflammation. You may also need to have Shoes press in on the toe from the side and down on your shoes stretched to accommodate the bunion. The it from the top. Moreover, the toe also bears much podiatrist might recommend devices called orthotics to of the body's weight with each step. All of this can protect the area. Surgery to realign the joint is a last contribute to bunions and arthritis, and both of those resort. "Surgery may help, but it isn't going to fully conditions can affect your gait, contributing to knee restore the joint to its original state," Dr. Ioli says. and hip problems down the line.

Bunions

Hallux valgus, or bunion, is nine times more common in women than men. In fact, a third of all women have bunions. They are swollen, painful bumps on the side of the foot where the big toe joins the foot bone.

Causes of bunions

Although some bunions are genetic, most result from wearing shoes that are too narrow across the base of

Preventing bunions

Wearing the right shoes goes a long way. Shoes should have a toe box wide enough to allow you to wiggle your toes and a heel no higher than two inches.

Arthritis of the big-toe joint

This condition is known as hallux rigidus because it stiffens the toe so that it doesn't bend. It also affects more women than men, and usually occurs between the ages of 30 and 60. Women with hallux rigidus may

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first no-tice the problem when they have difficulty flexing their toe to put on shoes or boots. They may also have painful swelling at the top of the joint.

Causes of stiff toe

alleviate pain. When pain is severe, corticosteroid injections may help. Surgery is a last resort.

Preventing stiff toe

There isn't much you can do to prevent hallux rigidus, Hallux rigidus doesn't have a single cause, but several but the treatments above may keep it from getting factors have been implicated, including the structure worse. of the foot, injuries such as stubbing the toe or dropping a heavy object on it, and simply wear and One more bit of advice tear.

Just as you have your height and weight measured every year, it's also a good idea to have your feet measured annually, Dr. Ioli says. He notes that hormonal fluctuations Treating stiff toe As with bunions, painful, stiff toes can be treated during pregnancy and menopause, weight changes, with ice and short-term use of NSAIDs to relieve diabetes, and other conditions can alter the size and shape pain and inflammation or acetaminophen for pain of a woman's feet. A doctor visit isn't required; stop by the relief. Wear shoes you can put on easily; those with nearest shoe store and have an experienced clerk measure a roomy toe box and firm sole and lower heel are both of your feet. Knowing your actual shoe size and best. Special shoe inserts called Morton's extensions, width is essential, especially if you order shoes online. which provide support under the toe joint, can also (Harvard Health Publications)

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A woman getting a foot treatment at a clinic. (getty)

C

ulture

South Korean artists sue impeached Park over cultural blacklist

Park and her aides violated the artists' right to free speech, expression and privacy Seoul - Majalla Hundreds of South Korean artists sued President Park Geun-hye and former aides on Thursday for trying to silence them with a blacklist of writers, actors and others critical of the scandal-plagued administration. Park's former presidential chief of

The Culture Ministry admitted there was a systemic effort to sideline critics of the scandalplagued Park

in drawing up the list, lawyers representing the group told reporters.

"We seek to resist the attempt to tame art and culture and to exercise free will to proclaim that past mistakes should not be repeated," said Cho Young-sun, a member of the liberal Lawyers for a Democratic Society group representing the artists.

The practice harked back to the "dictatorship days" of Park's father, Park Chung-hee, who ruled the country after taking power in a coup in 1961 until he was assassinated by his disgruntled spy chief in 1979, Cho said.

staff and her culture minister have been charged with abuse of power for their role in drafting the blacklist in a corruption scandal that has gripped the country and led to Park's impeachment in December.

"Public servants and those who were aware of the existence of the blacklist must be held accountable," he said. The 461 artists, who include theatre director Park Kun-hyung and novelist Hyun Ki-young, are initially seeking 1 million won (873$) in damages each. The legal system does not allow for punitive damage awards and rulings in civil suits are small compared to those in other countries.

Park and her aides violated the artists' right to free speech and expression and their right to privacy by collecting personal information to use

The Culture Ministry last month issued a public apology for the blacklist, which it said excluded artists from government grants and financial

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Film distributor Kim Il-Kwon posing for a photo at his office in Seoul. Kim was one of thousands of artists secretly blacklisted by the conservative government for voicing 'left-wing' thoughts -meaning criticism of the authorities. (Getty)

support, admitting there was a systemic effort to sideline critics of the scandal-plagued Park.

However, the presidential Blue House has denied that such a blacklist exists. Former Culture Minister Cho Yoon-sun, who resigned last month after being arrested, has said that she had heard reports of such a list but that she had nothing to do with it.

chief of staff Kim Ki-choon, and Cho, along with government cultural agencies, as defendants.

Park was impeached by parliament over accusations that she colluded with long-time friend Choi Soon-sil to pressure big businesses to donate to two foundations set up to back the president's policy initiatives. Park, 64, remains in office but has been stripped of her powers while the Constitutional Court decides whether The artists bringing the suit listed Park, her former to uphold the impeachment.

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Cho Youngsun: "We seek to resist the attempt to tame art and culture�

A

rt

Giant screens across UK bring David Hockney iPad drawings to life London - Majalla Giant screens across Britain will show digital paintings by English artist David Hockney for a week starting on Thursday, as an exhibition of the pop art pioneer's work goes on display at London's Tate Britain museum.

According to Reuters newas agency, the paintings are part of more than 70 works Hockney drew on an Apple iPad and iPhone, and will be displayed across screens in seven cities - London, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle.

Every half hour, viewers in public locations will be able to see a minute-long animated clip of Hockney's brushstrokes building gradually to reveal

pools, friends and lovers captured the sunny optimism of Sixties California.

‘I was brought up,’ he said, ‘in Bradford and Hollywood.’ He had seen Los Angeles in Technicolor, brighter than bright, in Singin’ in the Rain on trips to the pictures. The first time he saw the city for real, in 1964, aged 26, his first impression was of pool after pool: ‘As I flew over San Bernardino and saw the swimming-pools and the houses and everything and the sun, I was more thrilled than I have ever been in arriving in any city.

He has made paintings on the iPad since 2010, the year the device was launched.

The exhibition at Tate Britain will feature Hockney's work across six decades and runs from February 9 to May 29.

The exhibition at Tate Britain will feature Hockney's work across six decades his paintings. The animations show how the images are composed, as if we’re gaining privileged access to the master at work.

One of the drawings on show, "Untitled, 382", depicts Hockney's garden in Los Angeles, split down the middle with a call to action: "Keep Calm and Carry On Drawing."

Hockney, 79, left his native Yorkshire for Los Angeles in the 1960s. His paintings of swimming

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A Tate representative poses for photographs next to David Hockney's Los Angeles garden paintings at Tate Britain gallery. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)

Viewers will be able to watch animations showing how the images are composed 25

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