english 1538 majalla

My Way Or The Highway Paula Mejia

The Cowboy’s Legacy Ambassador Chas Freeman

Do A Grim Future Afshin Molavi

The Heat is On Issues 1538 / 1539, 25 December 2009

By Patrick Loughran

ub

le

Ed

itio

n

Editorial Cover

Established in 1987 by Prince Ahmad Bin Salman Bin Abdel Aziz

Dear Readers,

Established by Hisham and Mohamad Ali Hafez

Editor-in-Chief

ADEL Al TORAIFI

Managing Director TARIK ALGAIN

Published by

The Majalla Magazine HH Saudi Research & Marketing (UK) Limited Arab Press House 182-184 High Holborn, LONDON WC1V 7AP DDI: +44 (0)20 7539 2335/2337 Tel.: +44 (0)20 7821 8181, Fax: +(0)20 7831 2310

to The Majalla Digital, this W elcome week our double-issue brings to you

an analysis of the relationship between climate change and conflict in the Middle East.

In his article, Patrick Loughran, freelance journalist, specializing in climate issues and a regular contributor to CNN and the Times, explains how the collapse of water supplies, the extinction of coastal fish stocks and the end of industries like agriculture and tourism embody serious threats to the stability of the Middle East.

We invite you to read these articles and much more on our website at Majalla.com/en. As always, we welcome and value our reader’s feedback and we invite you to take the opportunity to leave your comments or contact us if you are interested in writing for our publication.

Sincerely,

Adel Al ToraiďŹ Editor-in-Chief

Cartoon

Issues 1538/1539

05

Contents 08 Geopolitics A Grim Future

11 In Brief Around The World Quotes Of The Week Magazine Round Up Letters

18 Features The Heat is On

27 Debate Climate Change: Who Will Pay the Bill?

30 Ideas My Way Or The Highway THE MAJALLA EDITORIAL TEAM London Bureau Chief Manuel Almeida Cairo Bureau Chief Ahmed Ayoub Editors Stephen Glain Paula Mejia Dina Wahba Wessam Sherif Daniel Capparelli Editorial Secretary Jan Singfield Webmaster Mohamed Saleh 25 December, 2009

06

51

35 People Interview

The Cowboy’s Legacy

Issue 1536, 11 December 2009

Profile

Dr Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2007

43 Economics

Submissions To submit articles or opinion, please email: editorial@majalla.com Note: all articles should not exceed 800 words

Gulf Economics

Of Trojans and Climate Change International Investor

As Good as Gold?

Advertising

For advertisement, sponsorship and digital edition, please contact

Markets

51 Reviews Books

Riddle Me This

35

Readings Reports

To Integrate or Alienate ?

64 The Political Essay A Secret That Everybody Knows

Mr. Wael Al Fayez w.alfayez@alkhaleejiah.com Tel.: 0096614411444 F.: 0096614400996 P.O.BOX 22304 Riyadh 11495, Saudi Arabia

subscriptions To subscribe to the digital edition, please contact: subscriptions@majalla.com To subscribe for kindle edition: kindle@majalla.com

Saudi Arabia Office Address: HH Saudi Research & Marketing El-Takhasosy Street Crossing Mekkah Rd Conference Area p.o. Box 478 Riyadh 1141 Tel: 0096614417749 E-Mail: editorial@majalla.com

Cairo Office Address:

14 El-Hegaz St. Mohandessien - Giza. Egypt Tel.: +2 02 333 88 654, Fax: +2 02 333 88 654 E-Mail: editorial@majalla.com

London Office Address:

HH Saudi Research & Marketing (UK) Limited Arab Press House 182-184 High Holborn, LONDON WC1V 7AP DDI: +44 (0)20 7539 2335/2337, Tel.: +44 (0)20 7821 8181, Fax: +(0)20 7831 2310 E-Mail: editorial@majalla.com Issues 1538/1539

Disclaimer The views expressed in this magazine are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the opinion or views of The Majalla and its editorial team.

Al Majalla Š 2009 HH Saudi Research and Marketing (UK) Limited. All rights reserved.

Niether this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of HH Saudi Research and Marketing (UK) Limited. Published weekly, except for two issues combined periodically into one and occasional extra, expanded or premium issues. For digital subscription inquiries please visit www.majalla.com/ subscriptions.

07

Geopolitics

A Grim Future Yemen staring down the economic abyss A look at the economic numbers of Yemen promises a grim future for the country. Several factors, such as a very young population, high unemployment, water shortage, and the infiltration by extremists, are a recipe for turmoil in Yemen and its surroundings. That’s why it is vital that the GCC states, along with a broad-based coalition of other states, take the lead to support Yemen in its moment of economic crisis.

W

hile Yemen’s political unrest, its civil conflicts in the south and north, and its rising tide of alQaeda linked extremism capture headlines, the south Arabian country is heading toward a quiet economic implosion that could dramatically compound its current difficulties, spill over into bordering states, most notably Saudi Arabia, destroy the lives of millions of Yemenis, and take the country further down the road to what some analysts are calling a “failed state.”

The economic numbers are grim, and the future does not look much better. Yemen is the poorest country in the Arab world. Its GDP growth rate during the five year oil boom beginning in 2003 has been anaemic, averaging about 2.5% – low by the standards of oil producers. Meanwhile, its oil – which accounts for some 75% of government revenue – is dwindling, with no new discoveries in sight. Indeed, the World Bank has noted that Yemen might not have any oil left for export within the next ten years.

While Yemen is not a major oil exporter in the global sense, its oil revenue helps the government meet its basic needs and fund state development projects. The oil revenue also greases patronage networks among various tribes and allies of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Without the oil exports, its hard to imagine any Yemeni government maintaining even a basic semblance of central government control.

Yemen’s successful launch of its liquefied natural gas program (LNG), which saw its first shipments pushed out in October 2009, will make up for some lost revenue, but will be unable to match the earning power of oil exports in the near to medium-term.

Furthermore, population trends will likely compound Yemen’s economic troubles.

Yemen is one of the youngest countries in the world, with more than two-thirds of its people under the age of 24. That young population is crashing head-on with a weak economy that fails to produce adequate jobs.

Yemen’s unemployment rate – at nearly 35% – is among the highest in the world. And the future does not look much better: Yemen’s 25 December, 2009

likely to face a rise in Salafist extremism as its population grows and economy weakens. It is also noted that Yemen is “ripe for continued instability and state failure”, unless its population growth slows and its economy strengthens.

Afshin Molavi population of 22 million will likely double within the next twenty years.

This population will continue to put pressure on state’s deteriorating infrastructure, including its water resources. The World Bank, in a 2006 report, noted that Yemen could face severe water shortages and describe a looming water crisis as “extreme.”

Most of the nation’s water is used to grow qat, the mildly narcotic leaf chewed by Yemenis of all segments of society. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Minister of the Environment Abdulrahman Al-Iryani said in 2008 that Yemen’s domestic water supply collapse is irreversible. In short, Yemen will not survive without water supplies from elsewhere.

As the population grows and the sources of government revenue decrease, Yemen’s government faces the prospect of losing further control of its population outside the capital city, Sana’a. The gradual diminution of central government control could lead Yemen into a situation that would see it devolve into semi-autonomous regions and cities, suggested Christopher Boucek, an analyst with the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Referring to similar cases in Somalia and Afghanistan, Boucek wrote in a recent report on Yemen that that such “a slow, emerging state of lawlessness in Yemen would provide opportunities for extremists directed or inspired by al-Qaeda to regroup, organize, train, and launch operations against U.S and allied targets throughout the Gulf region.”

The U.S National Intelligence Council, in its report entitled “Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed”, noted that Yemen is

Needless to say, Yemen emerged as a key topic at the recent Gulf Cooperation Council Summit in Kuwait, but much of the attention focused on the Houthi rebellion in the north and the perceived security implications for Saudi Arabia and the GCC states as a whole.

While the Houthi rebellion and the southern secessionist movement pose significant problems to Yemen’s government, its slow economic deterioration might be more consequential to its future – and thus the future of the GCC states.

That’s why it is vital that the GCC states, along with a broad-based coalition of other states, take the lead to support Yemen in its moment of economic crisis. The possibility of railway links to the GCC states, as discussed in the summit, is a useful idea, but one that is not sufficient. What is needed is a broad-based strategy of development.

Without significant and sustained support aimed at forestalling an economic crisis and laying the foundations for more broad-based development, Yemen will likely buckle under the tremendous pressure it faces.

A cracking, buckling, deteriorating Yemen as failed state will pose far more danger to the GCC and the international community than the latest round of civil conflict within its borders. The time is now to begin the process of healing Yemen’s economic wounds. If we fail to do so, those wounds will expand, destroying the lives of millions of innocent Yemenis, and spilling over across Yemen’s borders and beyond.

Senior Research Fellow at the New America Foundation and author of Persian Pilgrimages: Journeys across Iran

08

Issues 1538/1539

09

In Brief Around The World

Quotes Of The Week

Magazine Round Up

Letters

Montazeri's Death Sets Iran on Fire Iran's Isfahan province witnessed fierce demonstrations that later erupted into clashes with police in "Najaf Abad"; the hometown of the late Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri, who died earlier this week aged 87.

New slogans directed at Ayatollah Khamenei the current Iranian supreme leader were chanted by his opposition.

Security forces have enforced a Issues 1538/1539

state of emergency in the province and created a siege around Montazeri's house and the home of Ayatollah Sayed Jalal, a close friend of Montazer‎i.

Reformist Iranian leaders have agreed unanimously that the death of the great religious leader at this particular period is considered a major setback.

They have stressed however that Montazeri's sudden death

will not hinder their progress towards reform.

It is noteworthy that the authorities have prevented the holding of funerals in many Iranian cities, in addition to cancelling the "Third Day" ceremony. Montazeri's family is also under threat of arrest should they hold any commemorational ceremony. The authorities have stated that these measures have been taken for “Security Reasons�.

11

In Brief - Around The World

Around The World

1 Serbia

7

In an attempt to end international isolation, Serbia has submitted its application to join the European Union.

Serbia has recently witnessed the initiation of the once frozen free trade agreement with the European Union.

Nevertheless, Serbia still has to overcome several obstacles in order to begin negotiations with the EU, including the capture of the remaining war fugitives.

4

3

3 Colombia Colombian troops have scanned remote areas of the Amazons in search for a local governor who was kidnapped by the FARC rebel groups. The governor's body was found shortly afterward. The kidnapping shows that FARC still has the capability carry out high profile operations posing security threats to the Colombian government.

2 China The British climate secretary claimed that efforts to reach an agreement at the climate summit in Copenhagen were "hijacked" by China who vetoed two agreements on limiting emissions. The claims were dismissed by the Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu, who said that the claims were a political plot by leaders who were trying to evade their own duties 25 December, 2009

4 United Kingdom A suspected friendly fire is said to be the cause of death of a second British soldier in Afghanistan in an exchange of fire that took place in the province of Helmand. The Ministry of Defense announced that the soldier has not been named but his family has been informed.

5 Ethiopia An Ethiopian court has sentenced 5 people to death for plotting the assassination of governmental officials. It is noteworthy that Melaku Tefera, the opposition leader, was also incriminated. The authorities have claimed that they found weapons including land mines at the suspects' homes. On the other hand the defendants claim to have been tortured into confessing the crime.

12

In Brief - Around The World

8 Lebanon A bus carrying Syrian workers has come under heavy fire in northern Lebanon near an army checkpoint in the Deir Emar district north of Tripoli.

According to security sources, at least one person was shot dead. The attack comes a day after Saad Hariri's two day visit to Damascus.

1

2 8

6

9

10

9 UAE

5

Dubai World has met creditors including executives from several banks to discuss its debt repayment plan. The meeting was an overview of Dubai World's financial plans to discuss it debt repayment plans. This the first face to face meeting since the firm asked for the extension of its debt repayments in November.

6 Iran Hussein Mousavi, Iran's opposition leader has been dismissed from his position as the head of the arts institution.

Mousavi has been accused of instigation unrest in the country. Accordingly, hardliners have called for putting him on trial.

Issues 1538/1539

7 USA

10 Burma

The American secret service has held in custody a woman who was accused of threatening to kill the American First Lady. Agents of the secret service claim that the suspect, Kristy Lee Roshia, knew where the Obama's would be staying and had intentions of killing them during their holiday in Hawaii.

Russia has signed a 400 million Euros contract to deliver 20 Mig-29 fighter planes to Burma. However, Burma is subject to sanctions by the western community due to its international human rights record. Nevertheless, the country is still in trade with many neighbors such as China, India and recently, Russia.

13

In Brief - Quotes Of The Week

Magazine Round Up

Quotes Of The Week

"We don’t welcome confrontation, but we don't surrender to bullying either" President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

"Never again should we let a global deal to move towards a greener future be held ransom by only a handful of countries."

Gordon Brown, British Prime Minister, blaming a small group of nations, for impeding negotiations in Copenhagen.

"This is an issue of sovereignty," said Abul Gheit in reference to reports on Egypt's intention to construct a barrier on its borders with Gaza.

"We are pursuing special ties with Syria based on honesty and frankness" Lebanese Prime Minister Saad El Harriri said on the Lebanese-Syrian relations.

25 December, 2009

1

Magazine Round Up 1 Foreign Affairs

Mind Over Martyr

The article explores the notion of deradicalization and advocates that it is both possible and important. Rehabilitation programs around the world for narco-terrorists, far-right militants, neo-Nazis and Islamic terrorists seem to be successful. Since 2004 in Saudi Arabia, more than 4,000 militants have gone through rehabilitation programs, and its graduates have been reintegrated into mainstream society much more successfully than ordinary criminals. Foreign Affairs affirms that this is an effective method that the US should focus on in combating terrorism.

14

3 New statesman Spiritual awakening

2 2 Newsweek

It seems that the religious wave in India is growing stronger and stronger. India now has 2.5 million places of worship, but only 1.5 million schools and barely 75,000 hospitals. Most importantly religion and politics seem to have become intertwined in India with politicians using religion strongly in their political campaigns and with the increase in governmental funds for religious institutions.

4 Businessweek A crisis is a terrible thing to waste This should have been the year of radical financial reform Businessweek blames the economists and mostly Obama’s administration for not taking advantage of a good crisis. This crisis could have been an opportunity to reform the economic system of the United States and cure its flaws. But unfortunately a temporary fix has been put into place, a decision that we will come to regret in the next crisis.

The General Karzai's challenge Afghanistan's president is crucial for the success of Obama's proposed plan. Newsweek addresses this issue in an interview with Karazai that discusses issues in Afghanistan including corruption, the surge and Pakistan. Karazai’s interview shows support for the surge as he asserts his belief that the timeline that Obama set is not absolute. He further confirms his consideration that Pakistan is the centre of terrorism. He also reiterated his pledge in fighting corruption in Afghanistan.

4

3 Cover Of The Week

Cover of the Week Prospect

How should we rate 2009?

Prospect asks a very valid question in this week’s issue "what has been overrated and underrated in 2009?" Prospect assesses various issues and individuals including Google’s wave which they believe is overrated. In short, Prospect provides an interesting way of assessing this year’s events.

Issues 1538/1539

15

In Brief - Letters

Letters LAST ISSUE

Syria’s State of Play

The interviewee talks from a US perspective and give priority to America's interests. We can't blame him for that. He is American patriot. The blame goes to us because we try to beg solutions to our problems from non-Arab, non-Muslim experts who tend to condemn us.

Nour Zaki Ibrahim

Samir Al-Taqi: Changing Course I think Bashar Al-Asad will eventually conclude a policy that fulfills all parties' satisfaction without causing any harm to the Syrian interests.

Fahed Al-Hamamsy 25 December, 2009

Assad Phase II The new emerging character of Syria’s President Syria is one of the most important political countries in the Middle East and it will remain so. Damascus plays a vital role both on the global level and the regional one.

Ali Ahmed Al-Juaini 16

In Brief - Magazine Round Up

Issues 1538/1539

15

Features

25 December, 2009

18 18

The

Heat is On By Patrick Loughran

Issues 1538/1539

19

Features

The Heat is On Conflict and climate change in the Middle East

Patrick Loughran

From wars over the collapse of water supplies, to the extinction of coastal fish stocks and the end of industries like agriculture and tourism, climate change threatens to destabilize the Middle East in the mid-term far more than any form of violent extremism or tyrannical government. This scenario brings both challenges and opportunities for the region, but the later will have to be seized in proper time, otherwise the former can be become insurmountable.

If a decrease in carbon emissions was achieved, as recommended by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change, the condition of 80% of the total area of Jordan, which is currently semi-arid (but is likely to be suitable for agriculture), will .deteriorate. It will become an arid desert

last month in one A tofa seminar the NASA buildings in

Washington DC, a US defence and intelligence services analyst gave a PowerPoint presentation showing several war games simulations to a room of fellow analysts and policy advisors. As the screen behind him flashed between different battles and strategies, he told his audience that the US government is already programming its military systems with dozens of scenarios similar to the ones he showed. These scenarios were not centred on wars stemming from the familiar diplomatic conflicts with Iran, or North Korea, 25 December, 2009

or even old Cold War-style nuclear face-offs with Russia or China. Instead, every one of the simulations was based on one of the many possible wars the US government already believes could arise due to climate change.

Now whether you are a sceptic or a believer in climate change or the proposed link to human activity as a cause, when the US military is jumping on the environmentalist bandwagon, it is hard to deny the big players are taking it seriously.

Anthony Hobley, a climate change legal specialist at law firm Norton

Rose, was among the audience at the seminar. ‘The presentations really hammered home that some nations at Copenhagen were negotiating for their very survival,’ he says.

‘The trajectory it seems we are on without drastic action, according to the trends in the observed scientific data, is the world at 6 degrees Celsius hotter, which is unthinkable.’

No doubt every nation in the world would like to see the details of those US military simulations, and certainly each region of the world will face its own challenges and conflicts if climate change is not averted. We 20

Features have already heard many devastating predictions – from the sea flooding that could wipe low-lying states like Bangladesh, the Maldives and many Pacific Islands off the map, to the drought and increasing desertification that could choke agricultural regions around the world.

But what are the likely effects in a region that is already dominated by desert and constrained in so many ways by its need for water? Policy makers and industry leaders in the Middle East would love to know.

For example, are the deserts of Jordan a future conflict zone in the US government simulations? Will there be water riots on the shores of the Sea of Galilee? Will battleships accompany the fishing vessels competing for diminishing stocks in the Red Sea, or the Mediterranean, or the Persian Gulf?

Some countries in Copenhagen had been negotiating for their survival.

It need not all be guess work. In fact, many governments, businesses and NGOs across the Middle East are already warning – and preparing for the worst – based on predictions taken from existing data and scientific models.

Dangers ahead Take Jordan. The Hashemite Kingdom already experiences regular interruptions in the water supply, and very few Jordanians can rely on running water 24 hours a day. Rationing water is just one of the rhythms of daily life in cities like Amman.

And even to maintain this intermittent supply, Jordan has to resort to tapping into ancient underground reservoirs of water – known as aquifers – and it also depends heavily on Israel as a supplier, as agreed under the terms of the peace accords.

But if Jordan has, per capita, one of the lowest levels of water resource availability in the world today, before the harshest effects of climate change have really set in, what will the future hold? Munqeth Mehyar, the Jordanian Director of Friends of Issues 1538/1539

Some others have ignored the climate change crisis. They forgot all about the conference and fell into a deep sleep.

Protesters have set fire in the streets of Copenhagen against the selfishness of .major countries

21

Features

If Middle Eastern countries don’t sit down and renegotiate their water we’ll be heading to a conflict. But water will always be an issue that can bring people together rather than separate them – it’s a point of meeting for people in the Middle East in our time Indeed, even if we see only a 1-2 degrees Celsius rise in temperatures by 2050, which would be a best-case scenario even if the emissions cuts recommended by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were achieved, the 80% of Jordan’s total land area that is currently semiarid (and potentially arable), would deteriorate into arid desert.

‘It’s a chain link process,’ says Mr Mehyar. ‘First we see the flora and fauna affected, then it will immediately start to affect the human beings themselves. And all of this region is suffering, and will suffer. Not just Jordan, but Syria, Algeria, Lebanon.

Most of the Middle East.’

So far armed conflict in the Middle East specifically related to water supply has been conspicuous largely by its absence. But the potential is certainly there, as is demonstrated in other areas susceptible to drought, such as Kenya, where over 300 people have been killed this year from conflicts over water after three years 25 December, 2009

© Getty Images

the Earth, has a stark warning. ‘All the scientific models indicate the region will receive much less rainfall – that means less water in the underground aquifers, rivers and lakes.’

Until now, the armed conflict in the Middle East related to water supply has been pretty obvio areas prone to drought, such as Kenya. More than 300 people were killed this year during dis

of continuous drought.

Increasing temperatures and lower levels of rainfall will affect not just individuals, but the wider food supply and the economy too as large businesses such as agriculture see declining yields. Industries such as fishing and tourism also face threats.

The seas and coastal regions of the Middle East are rich in coral reefs.

These reefs act both as a home and a food source for the much of the fish in the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea, and parts of the Mediterranean. They also bring lucrative tourism in the form of divers and snorkellers eager to experience the biodiversity of the coasts. But climate change threatens the coral and the fish. As the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rises, more and more of the gas is absorbed

into the seas and oceans. Carbon dioxide dissolves in seawater to form carbonic acid, which is seriously harmful to plant and animal life in the seas, especially coral.

‘At 450 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, coral reefs stop growing,’ says M. J. Mace, a climate change negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States. ‘At 550 ppm they disintegrate entirely. We know this. It’s been observed.’ Scientists already know the point at which coral reefs die from too much exposure to carbonic acid because they have observed the process in seas close to volcanic eruptions where carbon dioxide concentration in the air is very high.

The carbon dioxide concentration recorded in the Earth’s atmosphere 22

Features sit down and renegotiate their water,’ says Munqeth Mehyar, ‘we’ll be heading to a conflict. But water will always be an issue that can bring people together rather than separate them – it’s a point of meeting for people in the Middle East in our time. I think Jordan and Israel, for example, should go, and will go, to renegotiate the terms under which they deal with water.’

ous due to the lack of water. But the prospect of war certainly exists. It is evident in other sputes over water, following three years of continuous drought.

by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as of March 2009 was 387 ppm, which is a rise from an average of 378 ppm in 2005. The NOAA has recorded a steady rise of carbon dioxide concentration since 1960, when the atmosphere contained less than 320 ppm.

‘Even if the global concentration of carbon dioxide peaks before 2015, which is looking very optimistic, we will still see between 445-490 ppm. That could mean fish stocks declining as the coral they feed on stops growing. What’s more likely though, is we could see a carbon dioxide peak of 535-590 ppm. In that case, coral will die, and so will the fish,’ says M J Mace.

Coral reefs of course take many Issues 1538/1539

decades to grow, and without them generations of fish will not survive, most likely leading to population collapses and many extinction events.

So the seas of the Middle East could become very sparsely populated by plant and animal life, meaning goodbye not only to the profitable fishing and tourism industries, but also to the fish many people in the region rely on for their daily meal.

Yellow brick road As always, there is opportunity in threat, and the doomsayers are just as quick to point out solutions. In Jordan, Friends of the Earth sees the threat of climate change as a motivation to hammer out better agreements on how water is managed.

‘If Middle Eastern countries don’t

One thing I still cannot understand is the divergent positions of the Arab countries.

It’s not just about carbon emissions.

It’s also about good business sense in using a commodity like oil. I find it very strange that oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Algeria or Syria would not support talks like Copenhagen One of the major problems in the past has been that Israel is obliged to give Jordan a minimum quantity of water, not a percentage of its total supply. So when the supply falls below what Israel needs for itself, it cuts what it provides to Jordan, as happened during the record drought at the Sea of Galilee in 1999. Friends of the Earth sees the current arrangement as a potential source of conflict because there is no concept of shared burden. The organisation sees renegotiation as a chance for greater integration between the two countries on responsibility for water, so that management and interests are 23

Features

It is more likely that we will witness a rise in carbon dioxide emissions that will range from 535 to 590 ppm. In this case, .coral reefs will begin to die, as well as fish

shared, and competition is reduced.

‘We certainly need to talk about percentages of water, not quantities,’ says Mr Mehyar. ‘We have to avoid earlier mistakes. I hope we can learn that water is a regional resource, not a national resource. It can be a source of cooperation. We need to work together to preserve it. For example, in Jordan we are used to the adaptation theory, because nobody has water all the time, so we have learned to conserve it. In Israel they always receive water, so there is a culture of using and abusing it. But we all have a lot more to learn, no matter what country we’re from.’

The Middle East does not just have to prepare for the threats posed by climate change. It can also profit from potential solutions. While the region does not have large supplies of certain natural resources, such as protected rainforests, that could be used to gain ‘carbon credits’, it has an advantage in that its emissions are relatively low on a global scale. Thus, it does not face such huge challenges in making cuts. It also has other types of resources that could be turned to profit in the zero carbon age.

‘Deserts can actually be extremely valuable in the alternative energy industry,’ Mr Mehyar says. ‘Solar energy technology is improving not annually, but monthly, even daily.

25 December, 2009

First generation photovoltaic cells were only 10% efficient, and used very expensive silicon. They also needed an ideal temperature of 25 Degrees Celsius.

Anything above that significantly reduced the efficiency. Now we have third generation photovoltaic cells widely available. The technology has been used in space, and companies are starting to bring it down to earth. It is 25% more efficient than the first generation, so it is economically more effective. And high temperatures do not affect it, so it can be used in the desert. In the Middle East in particular this could be the answer to the energy crisis.’

in the long-term it will pay off. Even fossil fuel gets government subsidies.

Those same subsidies can be transferred to solar. After that, it is free energy from the sun. Even with the existing grid system, if you lose so many Kilowatts along the way, it’s a start. And with an upgraded system, you can decrease the amount that’s lost.’

While some countries, like Spain, are already experimenting with solar energy on a larger scale, the costs involved are very high. It will also be very difficult to export excess energy for profit to neighbouring regions like Southern Europe or the Caucasus states because electrical energy is lost over long distances on the grid system. Mr Mehyar admits the initial investment costs will be high. ‘But

But this points to a larger problem in trying to cope with the costs of climate change for the Middle East: funding. ‘Between 50-85% of all funding required for adaptation to climate change will have to be private finance,’ says Anthony Hobley of Norton Rose, a leading international legal practice. ‘When you consider that by 2030 the total global funding required is estimated to be between

The Arab countries might suffer from a cyclone, similar to

24

© Getty Images

Features

When the U.S. military gets involved in the field of environment, it is hard to deny that the major players in the .world are taking it seriously

ing steps. Jordan is currently building a new pipeline from the huge Disi aquifer to bring water to Amman, and the government has been in talks with the Palestinian Authority and Israel to discuss plans for a canal between the Red Sea and the Dead Sea to help o the Gonu cyclone of Oman, as a result of climate change. stem the decline in inland water US$384-563 billion per year, that is levels. But even quite a sum.’ these projects are still lacking in investment. Other governments though But business, both globally and in seem largely unconcerned by either the Middle East, is still not involved the threats or the business opportuniin climate change issues as much as ties presented by climate change, as it needs to be, or even wants to be. Munqeth Mehyar points out.

‘71.7% of businesses surveyed recently by Norton Rose said they ‘One thing I still cannot understand thought they could not, or could not is the divergent positions of the Arab really, influence the process of nego- countries. It’s not just about carbon tiation and adaptation being discussed emissions. It’s also about good busiat conferences like Copenhagen,’ ness sense in using a commodity like says Mr Hobley. ‘We need to ask: oil. I find it very strange that oil prowhy is business not more engaged? ducing countries like Saudi Arabia, Why is it not working through its Algeria or Syria would not support business forums and trade organisa- talks like Copenhagen. Oil is a very tions? Is that the fault of business, or precious commodity. We can use is it governments not reaching out?’ it not just to get energy. It goes into every product around us – plastics, The answer may be a bit of both. pharmaceuticals, chemicals. Why are Some governments are already tak- we burning that very precious comIssues 1538/1539

modity to get energy at the same time as we can get energy from alternative sources? We are depriving the Middle East of the future long-term revenue stream of oil as a raw material by burning it up in the short-term instead.’

His concern over short-sighted policy and the failure of so many to act is well placed. By all scientific accounts, the effects of climate change are now progressing faster than even the (by no means conservative) IPCC anticipated. ‘Sea level is rising faster than IPCC predictions,’ says M. J Mace., ‘the West Antarctic ice sheet loss is accelerating, Artic sea ice loss is outpacing IPCC projections, the rate of loss of the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated beyond predictions made just a couple of years ago. The problem is it seems not to matter how often you repeat the headline figures, people still forget them, and these are things we cannot afford to forget about.’

Indeed, with recent reports from the UK Meteorological Office that the past decade has been the hottest on record, and the World Meteorological Office saying 2009 will be one of the ten warmest years recorded, with a warming of 0.44 Degrees Celsius above the long-term average, it may soon become hard for the people of the Middle East to forget that the heat is now really on.

25

25 December, 2009

Debate Climate Change: Who Will Pay the Bill?

Will the Arab countries bear alone the consequences of the big powers' fault?

All expectations indicate that the Arab countries and the Middle East region will be the first to bear the burden of climate change. Desertification will increase and the individual share of water in the Middle East will decrease. Crops will become more difficult to harvest and epidemic diseases will spread.

Water expert, Dr. Radwan Abdullah Al-Washah, and economist Dr. Mokhtar Al-Sharif, explore the consequences of climate change that Arab countries are doomed to face.

Š getty images

Issues 1538/1539

27

Debate

The Arab Region Amid Climate Change Disappointing Copenhagen Summit Studies show that a sea-level rise by one meter will directly affect 41,500 square kilometres inland from the Arabian coast. The health of 3.2% of the Arab population could be harmed due to climate change, with increased outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Dr. Radwan Abdullah

S

The global summit on climate change in Copenhagen ended this week without realizing the objectives of developing countries. Unfortunately, it is these countries which are most affected by the negative effects of climate change, while industrialized countries are most responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases.

The Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon said that the agreement reached does not respond entirely to hid hopes and aspirations, but he acknowledged it was a start. The agreement includes the allocation of 30 billion dollars over the next three years to poor countries to confront the dangers of climate change.

Arab countries are, in many cases, the most vulnerable countries in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. The most important of these effects are high temperatures, low rainfall, and rising sea levels. The Middle East is a region already suffering from aridity, recurrent droughts and water scarcity.

There are many examples such as the floods in Jeddah, Yemen, Algeria and Morocco this year.

Forecasts suggest that a sea level rise of one meter will directly affect the 41,500 sq km of Arab 25 December, 2009

coastal land, with 3.2% of the Arab population affected compared with a global rate of 1.28%.

Moreover, due to climate change the health crises might occur as a result of a rise in temperatures, with increased outbreaks of infectious diseases such as malaria and schistosomiasis, and increasing cases of pulmonary disease.

Climate change will also affect coral reefs, beach erosion and rising sea levels on the coastal tourist centres where sea levels are already relatively low. A rise in temperature by two degrees Celsius will lead to the extinction of up to 40% of all living species. Seventy five percent of the buildings and infrastructure in the region are directly exposed to the effects of climate change. Artificial islandsbuilt in some Arab countries will be the first locations to be adversely affected by rising sea levels.

Water scarcity in the region is critical. Although the Arab region occupies 10% of the planet, it contains less than 1% of fresh water resources in the world. The region's current population of about 300 million is expected to reach nearly 500 million by 2025.

The demand on water is expected to increase from 205 billion cubic millimetres per year at present to 400 billion cubic millimetres in 2025. Various estimates indicate

that the Arab individual share of renewable water resources will be less than 800 cubic millimetres per year by 2015, equivalent to 10% of per capita at the global level.

The measures that countries should take to adopt to and live with climate change include: changing agricultural patterns; adopting new water strategies in order to develop water conservation techniques and rationalize water usage; adopting integrated management tools of water resources; developing new types of crops that are more adapted to warmer temperature; and developing innovative mechanisms and techniques for the desalination of salt water suitable for the Arab nation. Appropriate measures must also be taken to protect important installations on Arab shores, coasts, and islands so as to protect them from corrosion and sinking. Finally, the Arab countries must reconsider their priorities for the distribution of water on different development activities based on water-use efficiency. This water-use efficiency can be measured by the volume of production per cubic meter of water, instead of production per area of land. These measures will ensure the greatest economic return form each drop of water.

International Water Expert 28

Debate

Big Powers' Interests Spoil Copenhagen Summit Developing nations victimized by climate change Climate change poses a serious problem to the whole world. Developed nations are responsible for this problem while developing nations will have to suffer.

A

ccording to scientific studies, the effects of climate change are now observable on the 15 million square kilometres that compose the Arctic. This area is threatened with the meltdown of glaciers as well as the disappearance of animals due to changes in the atmosphere. Rising temperature and rapid melting of snow as well as the emergence of shipping routes caused these atmospheric changes.

Meanwhile, two studies have been conducted that measure the impact of climate change around the world. The first one covered 84 countries and the second covered 20 countries.

They monitored the dangers of climate change on specific countries. Egypt came in third place in the two studies among the countries most affected, while Vietnam came first, followed by Bangladesh. In Europe, we find that the Netherlands is threatened with total extinction, as its land lay 6 metres below sea level. The studies also find conclusive evidence that these threats are man made — associated to the removal of large sections of forests in the Amazon, Central Africa among other regions, which increased the rate of desertification and Issues 1538/1539

Dr.Mukhtar Al-Sherif drought.

Moreover, lakes have also shrunk in size. The prominent example is the Chad Lake, which eroded by 90%. In addition, the level of methane gas rose in the atmosphere— an element that is far more dangerous to the environment than carbon dioxide. Its rise contributed to the emergence of global warming.

Geologists have confirmed that the temperature of the atmosphere surrounding the earth also rises, while the temperature of the earth’s core falls. This is a serious indicator, especially since distances between continents and oceans increase and decrease depending on these factors. For example, the Red Sea area between Egypt and Saudi Arabia shrinks by millimetres every year. In Egypt, the land in Alexandria, falls by 2 mm per year and by 1.5 mm in Port Said annually. Meanwhile, the sea level rises by 1 cm per year. According to the latest estimates, river deltas will shrink around the world and especially the Nile Delta. Estimates show that at least 17% of the Nile Delta area will shrink. This means the disappearance of 5 million acres, an average investment

of 320 billion pounds of crops and livestock. Moreover, 20 km from Alexandria land will sink in case the water level rises by 50 cm until 2050.

It is noticeable that the developed countries have abandoned their commitments and obligations towards the international conventions on climate change, starting from the Earth Summit in Brazil, then the Kyoto Protocol in Japan and ending with the Copenhagen summit. This reveals the ongoing struggle between the developed nations, headed by the U.S., Canada, Europe and Japan on the one hand and developing countries on the other.

Amid the struggle, poor countries who are most affected by climate change will suffer. It is certain that the United States caused 31% of greenhouse gas emissions in the world for the past 10 years. China currently comes first place in greenhouse gas emissions, as it exceeded 21%, while the U.S. declined to 20 %. Meanwhile, developing countries only produce 8% of greenhouse gas emissions.

An economi expert in the Egyptian Desert Institute 29

Ideas

25 December, 2009

30

My Way Or The

Highway By Paula Mejia

Issues 1538/1539

31

Ideas

My Way Or The Highway Insights from the Iraq Inquiry Paula Mejia Amongst the different issues the Iraq Inquiry has exposed regarding the UK’s involvement in the War in Iraq has been the role of the UN. The Inquiry has hinted at important differences between the UN mandate and the reality behind its hierarchical structure – exposing important weaknesses in the international cooperation that is supposedly behind the organization’s power and legitimacy.

Weaknesses that effectively limit diplomacy as a viable option in cases when it was most desirable.

Tony Blair followed the tracks of Bush causing Britain to be involved in a losing war.

T

he implicit question behind the assessment of witnesses that the Iraq Inquiry has undertaken since it was set up

by British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has been How did we get here? For Britain, the way in which its involvement in the war in Iraq unfolded over seven years ago is still a question that remains to be answered.

25 December, 2009

Of the controversial issues surrounding this question, the most contentious are the government’s close relationship to the United States, and the now-refuted-presence of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq that was used to justify the invasion.

While having addressed these topics extensively during the first four weeks of the public hearings, the 38 witnesses that have been examined have provided more information

on other important issues that have received less media attention but that were equally important to the involvement of the UK and the US in Iraq.

Amongst these recent insights has been the role of the UN and the contradicting positions that it held as an international organization meant to represent a unified front of universal values, and as an organization 32

Ideas divided along political fault lines between the permanent members of the Security Council. That is, the Inquiry has hinted at important differences between the UN mandate and the reality behind its hierarchical structure –exposing important weaknesses in the international cooperation that is supposedly behind the organization’s power and legitimacy.

During one of the early sessions of the inquiry, Sir Jeremy Greenstock, the UK’s Ambassador to the United Nations from 1998-2003, was asked to build a picture of developments on United Nations policy towards Iraq prior to the invasion. Sir Jeremy Greenstock noted that amongst the member states of the Security Council there was a spectrum of views against how the UN should handle Iraq.

More importantly, he asserted that normally “the Permanent 5 do not act as a body, they don’t meet, they don’t caucus… On Iraq they gradually became operational. The Security Council, as 15, could not operate if the permanent members of divided.”

As a result, he noted, the Security Council’s stance on Iraq was characterized by a series of geometric relationships. The United States, he further noted “was at one end of the spectrum in regarding Iraq as a threat and as regarding the United Nations unable to deal with the threat.”

From this same session, the public was informed that United Kingdom had a different approach from that of the United States, although it sympathized with its view that Iraq was a threat and that the UN had limited capacity in mitigating this threat.

However, where they differed, Sir Greenstock claimed, was that “[The UK] believed that action against Iraq should be unequivocally collective, that it had to be based on Security Council Resolutions, that it had, if at all possible to avoid the use of force, but also that it had to be effective, that it had to remove nationally any threat which Hussein and his regime might pose to the vital interests of the Issues 1538/1539

cision, or at least their willingness to approach Iraq unilaterally.

Jeremy's confessions revealed the deficiency in the United Nations Bush causing Britain to be involved .in a losing war

UK, and collectively would remove the defiance by Iraq of the UN resolutions”.

As Sir Greenstock explained “The United Kingdom’s reasons for taking action on Iraq was solely based on UN Resolutions. The United States, in its public explanations of policy, throughout this period, suggeste. that there were reasons beyond UN Resolutions why the wished to deal with the threat posed by Iraq and regime change… The UK as the prospects for diplomacy declined were increasingly pulled on to American grounds for going to war, because, if we were going to go to war, the Prime Minister had made a commitment that he would go with the United States.”

But does this answer the implicit question of How did we get here?

Although Sir Greenstock’s explanation covers the differences between the American and British way of approaching Iraq, in particular how willing they were to resort to diplomacy, there is still something left wanting in an explanation that proportions most of the blame on the Bush administration’s unilateral de-

For those interested in being completely honest in their assessment of the decision to invade Iraq, whether from a British, American, or international perspective, these explanations undoubtedly provide an important insight into the weight that a powerful country can have on international policies. However, these explanations alone are insufficient, and they beg the question of to what extent the UN, or the international community more generally, is at fault in not preventing the US from effectively bullying other members of the Security Council to follow their agenda or risk being left out.

Interestingly, Greenstock noted in his final statement that while “the United Nations is fundamentally a reasonable place… the UN has a problem in dealing with big power divisions.

The United Nations is a forum of its member states, it is not a separate agency to deal with something, and there is no doubt that the United Nations, over 12 years, failed to deal with the fact that they were being defined by Saddam Hussein.”

Greenstock’s acknowledgement of the role that the UN’s structural flaws played in the invasion of Iraq, s evidence in favour of the realist tradition— that state behaviour is determined by what’s in their best interests and not what’s in the interests of the international community. For some, this assessment might be an unfortunate reality check with regards to the UN’s capability in defending the ideals it represents. Although the UN’s intention’s in Iraq were surely positive, as a structurally inhibited organization, the invasion of Iraq is evidence that it is no more than a microcosm of the same political hierarchy that dictates international relations. For those wishing to take from the Inquiry an important lesson on diplomacy it’s a matter of confronting a new set of complicated questions – can we reform the UN, and if we could, would it even make a difference?

33

25 December, 2009

36

People

Why

Peace is About Winning a War Against Climate Change Dr Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2007

Issues 1538/1539

35

People - Profile

Dr Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2007 Why Peace is About Winning a War Against Climate Change Dr R K Pachauri is one of the few heroes on the climate change scene. Dr. Pachauri won the Nobel Peace Prize for providing the international community with scientific evidence that climate change – both natural and anthropogenic – would be a major and incommensurable threat to peace in the course of this century. be a major and incommensurable threat to peace in the course of this century. As a result, Rajendra Kumar Pachauri did not just win a world-renown prize. He won a front line political battle against deeprooted paradigms.

The IPCC’s last and globallyacknowledged report (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007) highlights that based on the current temperature increase, 75 to 250 million people in Africa will be suffering from water stress in 2020 and that agricultural yields could decline by 50% in some countries. Small island states, mega deltas and low-lying coastal areas are threatened by the rising sea level and by the increasingly frequent and destructive climatic events. In the face of these ascertained impacts, even those who doubt the human impact on climate change cannot keep denying the reality of the impacts suffered by the most vulnerable regions in the world— a victory for the IPCC, Dr Pachauri and vulnerable countries.

D

octor Rajendra Kumar Pachauri is not your everyday Nobel Peace Prize winner. Before his award, threats to peace were generally associated with armed conflict, Pachauri’s accomplishments however, have broadened the international community’s understanding of what constitutes a threat to peace.

25 December, 2009

Pachauri was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel of scientists on Climate Change (IPCC), an award he shared with Vice President Al Gore.

Dr. Pachauri won the prize for giving scientific evidence that climate change – both natural and anthropogenic – would

Dr RK Pachauri is one of the few heroes on the climate change scene. He is a messenger sent from his native Nainital, India, to warn us that climate change is a threat to our civilization and to world peace, and not just another issue for the developing world to deal with. This bearer of bad news, however, is also remarkable for his belief in change: in a welfare-compatible capitalist model, in a poverty-alleviating combat against climate change, in carbon-constrained sustainable development, and in the empowerment of civil society.

In an article reflecting on the current globalized economic crisis, Pachauri, who himself received a doctorate in Economics, questions the effectiveness of the capitalist system in promoting

36

People - Profile individual and collective welfare. He sees a climax of the market’s failure to internalize environmental degradation in the human-induced climate changes we are experiencing today. These changes are not only environmental but also dangerously social: exacerbated poverty, forced migrations and identity changes, and new forms of social tensions just to name a few.

Climate change, according to Pachauri’s life work, is increasing disparities in wealth and welfare across the world.

Indeed, its current impacts are mostly taking place in the poorest regions of the world and in turn, affecting the poorest social strata within these regions. Poverty must not be yet another consequence of climate change. Instead, for RK Pachauri, poverty alleviation must become a rationale and a lever to mitigate climate change: particularly by helping developing countries find a path to development that is socially, economically and environmentally climate-proof.

The debate on the environmental and social impacts of the globalized capitalistic model is long overdue. Thanks to Dr. Pachauri’s research, and his ability to spread his message to the international community, the debate is finally taking place on a global level. The world must endorse a new economic paradigm in which policies contribute to bridge – rather than widen - the gap between private and social benefits. Indeed, today’s economic system, although globalized, is essentially private and lacks the unity and solidarity to effectively tackle climate change.

Capitalism need not be destroyed but reformed, in Dr. Pachauri’s own words “it would not help to throw the baby out with the bath water but certainly to clean the bath water completely”.

As an engineer and economist, RK Pachauri spent most of his career working on the state and prospects of energy resources, from different angles. In fact, he worked in the private sector (India’s Diesel Locomotive Works, Indian Oil Corporation Limited), in the public sector (Indian Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas), for the UN (UNDP adviser, IPCC), and as an academic (TERI-Tata Energy Research Institute, World Energy Council and World Resource Institute Council).

“We need a mix of policies that promote the movement to a low carbon future with active engagement on the part of business organizations in developing technical Issues 1538/1539

Pachauri shares Nobel with Al Gore 2007

solutions”. And his career is a reflection of the mixed policies he calls for.

According to him, we have the technology to adapt: low-carbon rapid transport systems, energy efficiency in our households and industrial plants, renewable energy resources. All we need is a paradigm shift and a forward-looking investment policy. His insider’s words are golden and if Dr. Pachauri says we must and can adapt to a carbon-constrained world, adapt we shall.

In an article reflecting on the current globalized economic crisis, Pachauri, who himself received a doctorate in Economics, questions the effectiveness of the capitalist system in promoting individual and collective welfare.

RK Pachauri has a vision in which civil society is empowered to decide about its own future and to demand the necessary reforms to guarantee welfare that is collective, environmentally-sound and

socially at rest for the generations to come. NGOs and economic stakeholders play a major role in Pachauri’s vision in leading communities and groups to make the necessary changes to mitigate and adapt to climate change as well as alleviate poverty. He believes in the power of the youth to make these changes and win the long-standing fight for equity.

Dr. Pachauri’s institute (TERI) funds an education programme for children and university students.

Pachauri also advocates the need for local businesses and communities to learn about the economics and politics of climate change. Indeed, only local-driven demands can sustain the international and national political momentum to effectively combat climate change. Only grass-root action can endorse the significant changes in lifestyles and consumption needed to curb green house gases emission trends and limit temperature increases caused by human behaviour.

It is true that tackling climate change will require significant paradigm shifts as well as massive technological and industrial overturns that may seem unfeasible as yet. However, the co-benefits of these global changes will by far exceed the costs (both symbolical and economical) entailed. Learning to live in a carbonconstrained world seems like a small price to pay for higher energy security, access to sustainable development in poorer countries, a fairer distribution of common resources and…world peace.

Leaving us to ponder, as Pachauri has, “why we are dragging our feet in the face of such overwhelming logic”.

37

People - Interview

The Cowboy’s Legacy Ambassador Chas Freeman on American Foreign Policy in the Middle East In an interview with The Majalla, Ambassador Freeman provides his insight on the various tensions that underscore Middle East policy, and provides important perspective on America’s legacy in the region.

A

mbassador Chas Freeman is an American diplomat, author and writer. Most notably, he served as the United State’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 1989 until 1992, during which he dealt with the Gulf War. Ambassador Freeman has also served for the State and Defence departments in various capacities, including acting as the main interpreter for Richard Nixon’s 1972 visit to China. He now serves as president of the Middle East Policy Council, co-chair of the U.S. China Policy Foundation, vice-chair of the Atlantic Council, and Chairman of Projects International.

The Majalla: As the former Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, how have US-Saudi relations evolved since 9/11?

25 December, 2009

Well I think they hit a very low point just before 9/11, at that time differences over the absence of American engagement in any peace process between the Palestinians and Israelis made US-Saudi relations very frosty. Then Crown Prince Abdullah communicated to President Bush that we might have to come to a parting of ways. 9/11, however, ended by cementing cooperation and a new relationship, although it took a while for that to work out. This cooperation was in the counterterrorism area. However, after the 2003 bombings the Saudis were more willing to co-operate with the United States on that issue. Since then, however, Saudi Arabia has been remarkably successful in its program to re-educate

terrorists, deter people from becoming terrorists and to round up those who do. This aspect of the Saudi-American relationship is a new one.

The traditional elements of the relationship – cooperation on energy matters and the special relationship – eroded quite badly on the eve of the American invasion of Iraq. Saudi Aramco altered its pricing formula for oil and this led to an immediate drop of sales to the US and a raise in the sale of oil to China.

This was an expression of disapproval on behalf of Saudi Arabia towards the policy the US was following and it signalled a much less special relationship than one we had in the past.

38

People - Interview Traditionally we cooperated on various foreign policy projects. The most well known of which is probably the expulsion of the Soviet Union from Afghanistan — which was very much a joint venture between the US and Saudi Arabia, working through Pakistan, and with the assistance of China as well as other Arab countries. We haven’t had that kind of cooperation in some time, and it wasn’t until the Obama administration was elected that the US resumed its efforts to mediate peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis. So the relationship between the two countries has changed since 9/11, with the one bright spot being cooperation against terrorism, while other areas lack the vigour they had before 2001.

The Majalla: Does Saudi Arabia’s growing relationship with countries like China, Russia and India create a tension in its relationship with the US? From the Saudi point of view, after 9/11 and the changes in the relationship that I began to describe – which include also the end of Saudi Arabia’s role as the financial backer for America’s foreign policy in the Middle East –Saudi Arabia decided it was in its interest to diversify its relations.

So it has been trying to establish, not alternatives to the US, but offsetting relationships with countries like China and India, and Brazil in South America.

They have also been looking towards traditional friends in Europe and North East Asia, like Japan and Korea. They also have a new relationship with Russia.

So Saudi Arabia is trying to reduce what it came to conclude was overdependence on the United States. And I think this is an intelligent and entirely understandable approach, which certainly Americans shouldn’t object to.

There are some that object to it, for a very long time there was a tendency in the US to take Saudi Arabia for granted. It’s never a good idea in any marriage to take your spouse for granted; they may wander off in a direction you don’t like.

The Majalla: What role can Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States play in the stabilization of Afghanistan?

I think potentially there is a great deal that can be done. The UAE actually has a small military group in Afghanistan as part of the coalition there. I think Saudi Arabia could be engaged in helping to stabilize Pakistan with schools that Saudi money builds in the border area among

the Pashtuns which have been captured by militant Muslim extremists.

Since the public school system has collapsed in that area, parents who want to give their children an education have no alternative other than to send their children to academies that are teaching a set of religious doctrines that many people find objectionable, including many Saudis. It is possible to have a cooperation on that issue, but we have not as of yet.

Also, as an institution the Gulf Cooperation Council, is much less than the sum of its parts, it’s fallen far short of its potential for many reasons. It isn’t an effective collective defence organization.

It has been unable so far to form a common currency or a real common market, and it does not coordinate security issues effectively.

The Majalla: Do you think Saudi Arabia’s history in Afghanistan affects its willingness to participate in stabilizing the country?

I think Saudi Arabia has a lot of credibility with the ex-mujahideen, some of which are in the Taliban today. Saudi Arabia is therefore in a position to play a very positive role, quite welcome by many, certainly Afghanistan and the adjacent area of Pakistan. These areas need outside

I think Saudi Arabia could be engaged in helping to stabilize Pakistan with schools that Saudi money builds in the border area among the Pashtuns which have been captured by militant Muslim extremists.

help, and Saudi Arabia could provide it if it worked with the US and others – Saudi Arabia would be an Islamic face that would make that assistance more acceptable.

The Majalla: How do you evaluate Iraq’s prospects? Are trends in the relationship between the growing

loyalties of security forces to political parties significantly detrimental to its future stability?

I think security in Iraq has been very political from the start. What the United States inadvertently did in Iraq was not to change the regime but destroy the state and create anarchy from which Iraqis are only now emerging. But as a result of that anarchy, various sectarian elements in Iraq, which have been non-violent in the past, are now violent. The situation resulted in a civil war between Sunni and Shii, with the Kurds in their own special category. Iraq is now very divided and essentially under Shii domination, which is not accepted by many of the Sunni Arabs or the Kurds which are also Sunni.

Iraq is now like a kaleidoscope, it is once again in motion and we don’t know what pattern it will finally assume.

The Majalla: With the problems that Iraq has had in defining election laws, do you think there will be a recurrence of the violence that characterized the 2005 elections?

It appears that the Sunni Arabs in Iraq are not satisfied with the election law. If that proves to be the case, then I think we will see a resumption of the violence. We may already be seeing it. And this is sad because Al-Qaeda and its like were not in Iraq prior to the US invasion; they are parasites on the sectarian violence that subsequently occurred, and on resistance to occupation. They seem to be making a bit of a comeback in Iraq at the moment.

The Majalla: What strategies do you think the US government should follow in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program, as well as with its lack of internal legitimacy?

I would say that the Obama administration’s efforts to open a dialogue with Iran, which I think were sincere, began with the greeting that the President recorded for the Iranian New Year, and in his Al Arabiya interview – both demonstrating a willingness to explore a new relationship with Iran. This approach, however, has not worked and it hasn’t for several reasons. One of them is that there are many more issues between the United States and Iran, involving Iran’s relationship with the region, than simply the nuclear question. Which is simply a matter of obsession in Israel, and which is a matter of concern rather than obsession elsewhere in the region.

39

People - Interview Iran has reason to fear attack by Israel or the US, because on many occasions Israel and the US have threatened attack. It would be entirely logical for Iran in these circumstances to seek a nuclear deterrent, partly because it is logical that they do so in these circumstances and partly because of the example of Israel, which developed nuclear capability while denying at every point it was doing so, and insisting that its program was for peaceful purposes.

I don’t share the Israeli judgement of Iranian nuclear weapons as an existential issue, but I do share the Israeli judgment that it is almost a foregone conclusion that Iran is in fact driving to develop nuclear weapons. The only question is how and when they will do it, not, whether they will do it.

So there is a serious issue there, but there are many other issues. The effect of US policy in the region has been to make Iran the dominant political influence in Iraq, cement the Syrian-Iranian relationship into what appears to be a very strong alliance, place Iran’s friends in Lebanon, Hezbollah, in a position of command in Lebanese politics and to drive those Palestinians who live in Gaza under Hamas into the arms of Iran because they have nowhere else to go. American foreign policy has greatly raised the level of influence and power that Iran exercises in the Middle East. This is of great concern to the Arab Gulf States. It is this aspect of the new Iran that they worry about more than the nuclear issue.

That is to say, where Israel sees Iran’s possible development of nuclear weapons as a matter bearing on its survival, for a country like Saudi Arabia it is a matter of boosting Iranian prestige to new heights and thereby enhancing Iranian influence in the region at the expense of Arab solidarity and the influence of powerful countries like Saudi Arabia.

The second reason for the failure of the open hand that President Obama extended to Iran, has been that Iran has fallen into a season of dissent and confusion, and it appears that quite a number of Iranians, especially young Iranians, are not satisfied with the Islamic Republic, they did not regard the recent elections as fair and honest, and they do not accept the legitimacy of some of their leaders.

That is of course very destabilizing and disruptive in Iranian politics.

I think all Iranians including opposition accept the need of Iran to develop nuclear capability, if only a peaceful nuclear capability. I don’t think there is any difference among them on that. However, 25 December, 2009

there are other issues and these get in the way of Iran being able to reach back to President Obama, and that may explain in part why they have not responded favourably.

That said, I think the US needs to do several things. First we need to recognize that we can’t deal with the nuclear issue in isolation from other issues. Particularly, some clearing of the air of bad memories going back to more than half a century will be necessary. We need to understand and respond to the Iranian fear of an American attack, fear of our disrespect for their security and their identity, and we need to find a way to provide reassurance to them as they reassure us that they withdraw from some of their more extreme activities abroad. It’s not easy to do this, so the second thing we need to do in addition to broadening the agenda is persisting in a willingness to talk to Iran. We can wait and we should be patient on that even if we are not terribly patient on the nuclear matter.

The Majalla: How do you explain Syria’s rapprochement to the West and to Saudi Arabia?

The warming has been less evident in Syria’s relation with the West than it has been in some measure of Syrian-Saudi rapprochement. In that case, King Abdullah simply despaired of waiting for the US to respond appropriately to the various openings that Assad had appeared to offer for dialogue and improved relations, and perhaps even a peace agreement with Israel, Therefore, in part of Saudi concern for the Iranian lock on Syria, they decided to take the initiative to patch up the relations that had become very strained over issues in Lebanon, the Harriri assassination, and other incidents that led Saudi Arabia to take a very disapproving view of the Assad regime.

The Majalla: Is Iran’s growing instability a factor that might lead Syria to cash in now on the leverage it has acquired from its relationship with Iran?

I think it mainly disturbs countries in the region, and it should disturb the west. It should therefore motivate us, I think, as it did Saudi Arabia, to try to reach out to Syria and give Syria alternatives to exclusive reliance on Tehran.

The Majalla: Do you find that the Obama administration will be able to make objective decisions towards the Middle East Peace Process given the

weight of the Israeli lobby in the US? First, the Obama administration is in its early days. Moreover, it is engaged in very difficult internal American political negotiations, over matters like health insurance, fiscal reform, financial regulatory reform and so forth, and it is very hard in this context to take on a very difficult foreign policy issue without alienating important constituencies at home, including those who are aligned with the Israeli right wing. Which I think is a minority of the Jewish population and certainly a minority of the Christian population, but they are passionate on the subject and if you appear to ignore or contradict their views then they will exact price in some other area.

I don’t have any doubt whatsoever about the president’s sincerity and resolve to address this issue. I think he is entirely serious in a way that his predecessor was not. After all, he took quite a series of steps early in his administration to signal that. On the second day of his administration he appointed George Mitchell as a mediator, signalling that this was a very high priority for him. He took the occasion to give two speeches one addressed to the Turks and other Muslims, and another in Cairo to address the entire Muslim world and this issue in particular— which he didn’t have to do. I think he understands the importance of this issue and the extent to which American complicity with Israeli policy burdens American foreign policy and American relations with the Muslim world and particularly the Arab world.

But President Obama is also a politician and a decision maker, and you cannot do everything at once. I for one keep an open mind about whether he will or will not be willing to take on that portion of the Israel lobby that supports settlement expansion.

However, let’s not forget there is another Jewish lobby emerging, which is J Street.

This group does not support the occupation of the West bank or the siege of Gaza and they do not support settlements. Instead, they support the president’s effort to halt the building of settlements and broker a negotiation of a final status for the Palestinians in their own land and their own state. I think it’s far too early to write-off the possibility that this President – who is a very patient, very bright, very resourceful one – will keep pressing on this issue. I think that would be a mistake.

Interview conducted by Paula Mejia

40

Issues 1538/1539

25 December, 2009

Economics Gulf Economics

International Investor

Markets

Of Trojans and Climate Change By Paula Mejia and Daniel Capparelli

Issues 1538/1539

43

Economics - Gulf Economics

Of Trojans and Climate Change Understanding the need for cap-and-trade Paula Mejia and Daniel Capparelli Of late, climate change seems to have become the primary concern of most governments worldwide.

The issue appears in an increasing number of speeches by heads of state, very often on thoroughly unrelated topics. Most of the time, however, this near omnipresence is symptomatic of the use of climate change to pursue non-environmental agendas in an ad hoc and inefficient way. A way of countering this tendency is the development of cap-and-trade schemes.

In Copenhagen special interests rather than climate change were the heroes.

O

ne of the main topics of discussion absent at the Copenhagen Conference on climate change was the issue of how to efficiently tackle emissions of greenhouse gases. This absence is all the more striking if one considers the significant costs that many policies being considered by the global environment community would create for developed and developing countries.

The question of climate change is inextricably linked to economics. On the one hand, there are those that argue that if climate change is not addressed, the economy will be affected in the long term. People will find themselves without resources to produce goods, food crises and water shortages, for instance, would affect stability in both economic and political terms. On the other side 25 December, 2009

of the argument are those that believe that tackling climate change itself is a costly measure – and one whose effects are questionable. In the past few years, however, it has become increasingly clear that, for better or for worse, those advocating immediate action have been more persuasive.

As a result, global warming and the intertwined need to tackle it have been established as the new nearly religious policy priority for the 21st century. This unanimity has in turn fostered something best described as a self-feeding political frenzy, under which politicians compete for the post of most environmentally and, by extension, socially conscious leader in the world. This unanimity briskly stops there, however, since the ensuing cacophony of demands, ideas

and industrial strategic behaviour of concerned businesses seems to have lead governments to behave erratically and inefficiently.

One of the main commonly held ideas fomenting confusion is the notion that governments must subsidize or give regulatory preferences to clean energy producers in order to level the competitive playing field and challenge the entrenchment of existing fossil energy sources in the economy. The problem with such a line of reasoning is that, today, no one knows for sure what is the best tool to fight global warming: no one knows which clean energy source is the most efficient in diminishing green house gas emissions; and no one knows how to best allocate the exact proportion of investment to clean energy, carbon sequestration, geo-

44

Economics - Gulf Economics engineering, or even nuclear power. This is not to mention what most economists describe as the preposterous belief that subsidizing competing industries is a good idea – given the offsetting effect of one industry’s subsidies on another’s.

These problems are the main reason why of the options available, cap-and-trade is a favourite. Its goal is to steadily reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions in a cost effective manner. Each large-scale emitter will have a limit on the amount of greenhouse gases it can emit.

The firm must have a permit for every tonne of CO2 it releases. These permits act as an enforceable limit on the amount of pollution allowed. Over time, limits become stricter allowing less pollution.

The trade aspect of carbon emissions trading is based on the idea that it will be cheaper for some companies to reduce their emissions below their required limit than others. These more efficient companies will be allowed to sell their permits. Consequently, the market creates an incentive system for companies to emit less CO2 by financially rewarding those that pollute less, and making it more costly for companies that pollute more.

The main benefit of this approach is that, unlike subsidies and regulatory preferences, cap and trade does not rig the market in favour of a particular source of clear energy, but rather, internalizes the costs of greenhouse emissions into the price of energy, thus granting energy producers a fair chance to prove how and why theirs is the most cost-efficient energy source. Furthermore, because cap and trade does not depend on the ability of a bureaucrat to rightly choose the right source of energy, and on performance of one particular industry, but relies rather on the whole energy sector, it is likely to be the fastest way of effectively reducing greenhouse emissions. In practice, many specialists agree that it takes under a year after its implementation for the scheme to start producing its effects.

Some progress has already been achieved in this account. According to the World Bank, carbon emission trading has been increasing in recent years. 37 million metric tonnes of CO2 were exchanged through projects in 2005, a 240% increase relative to 2004 which was itself a 41% increase relative to 2003. In terms of dollars, the World Bank estimated that the size of the carbon market was 11 billion USD in 2005, 30 billion USD in 2006 and Issues 1538/1539

64 billion USD in 2007.

Of the specific cap-and-trade systems that have been put in place, that established by the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 usually comes to mind. Coming into force in 2005, this international treaty binds developed nations to a cap-and-trade system for six major greenhouse gases.

It is also possible for developed countries within the trading scheme to sponsor carbon projects that provide a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in other countries, as a way of generating tradable carbon credits. The protocol allows this through Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation projects, in order to provide flexible mechanisms to aid regulated entities in meeting their compliance with their caps.

cap-and-trade is a favourite. Its goal is to steadily reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions in a cost effective manner.

Another important example of a capand-trade system is the European Union Emission Trading Scheme or EU ETS. It is the largest multi-national greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme in the world and was created in conjunction with the Kyoto protocol. The program caps the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted from large installations and covers almost half (46%) of the EUs carbon dioxide emissions.

As these examples show, cap and trade is not pie in the sky. This is not to say, however, that the current design and implementation of these schemes does not need fine-tuning. The Clean Development Mechanism of the UN for developing countries and the program for transition economies have achieved mixed results.

In some cases they are causing real

investment to be made, particularly in reducing CO2 from energy use. On the other hand, it hasn’t been as effective or cost effective as many people hoped. On a more general level, cap-and-trade systems are criticized for being overly complicated – which may lead one to wonder whether the problem is not inherent to incompetent design rather than the policy itself.

Although these shortcomings pertain to the realm of form rather than substance, they do bring about a looming threat: that of the dismissal of such schemes in favour of ad hoc environmental policymaking and voluntary national reductions. The danger behind ad hoc policymaking lies in its “going it alone” nature. Governments end up establishing overly expensive subsidy systems and fiscal disincentives that undermine the competitiveness of some industrial sectors. The resulting fall in sectoral competitiveness produces domestic political pressures to compensate the extra environmental-related costs with border tariffs or regulatory barriers in order to hinder the import of goods originating from countries with no such scheme.

Furthermore, history teaches us that “temporary” subsidies almost invariably turn into long run industrial policies.

In fact, from a conceptual perspective there is not much difference between the subsidization of green industry today and the subsidization of heavy industry in developing countries in the 1950s through 1980s, which proved to be a failure with no exception. Given the urgency of acting now that many pundits of the environmental global community express, it seems paradoxical that many of them argue for the establishment of policies that have been proven failures by history rather than comprehensive and efficient schemes such as cap-and-trade.

From this standpoint, subsidies schemes and any variation of the carbon tax are becoming known as Green Protectionism. Green protectionism has become a Trojan Horse to push forward populist and protectionist policies in order to score domestic political gains. This Trojan Horse poses a serious threat to one of the greatest economic achievements of international cooperation and the main driver of economic growth – the liberalization of trade and capital flows. Only with the establishment of capand-trade schemes can we expect to tackle climate change efficiently and at the same time keep the development door open for lower income countries.

45

Economics - International Investor

As Good as Gold?

Gold, central banks and relevance for the Gulf States Gold is making a comeback. As the US dollar slips into depreciation, central bankers turn once more to gold to solidify their reserves. In times of crisis, this trend bodes well for international economic stability.

S

In the summer of 2008, the US dollar had experienced a serious depreciation against other global currencies. It took two dollars to buy a British pound and $1.60 to buy a euro. Partly reflecting this dollar weakness, oil had surged to $147 a barrel. The global economic crisis, the accompanying steep decline in global stock markets and the flight to safety of investors around the world gave the dollar something of an Indian summer as demand for the greenback soared and it strengthened across the board against the pound, euro, yen and other national currencies. However, as the crisis begins to recede and the American policy solution to the crisis—massive fiscal stimulus to the tune of $1.4 trillion in borrowed funds—begins to assert itself, economic fundamentals will begin to re-assert themselves and the dollar will start heading back in the direction of its relative value in more normal times. Already the euro has clawed back much of the value it lost in the winter of 20089-.

While plummeting dollar values will help American exports and stimulate the American recovery, they promise substantial losses for foreign holders of dollar assets. Foreign central banks in China and the Persian Gulf with large dollar reserves will be particularly vulnerable to these developments and concerns about diversification of reserve portfolios. Increasing their stocks of the world’s most traditional monetary asset, gold, would provide an avenue of relief from these quandaries for many dollar-centric economies.

But why hold gold? First, gold is no country’s liability. Unlike the dollar, no country can simply put unlimited amounts of gold out into international markets. Second, the amount of gold in the world is relatively fixed.

Approximately 160,000 tonnes have 25 December, 2009

Dr.Mark Duckenfield been mined in human history and the World Gold Council anticipates that only 2,400 tonnes will be mined annually for the foreseeable future.

Central banks hold 20,000 tonnes, around one-eighth of this gold. It is not often appreciated how little gold there actually is – all the gold in the world would fit into the bottom third of the Washington Monument.

Consequently, gold is a good longterm store of value. Furthermore, gold also can readily be tapped either as collateral for international loans or sold outright in a time of crisis.

India used its gold reserves in 1991 as collateral for an international loan and Switzerland targets a gold cover of 40% of its reserves in order to promote confidence in the Swiss franc and the Swiss financial system.

There are signs that countries are beginning to take notice of gold’s valuable role in portfolio diversification. While the developed world is divesting itself of gold, developing countries are adding to their portfolios. European countries hold nearly 60% of their reserves in gold but are steadily reducing this amount. The European Central Bank has targeted 15% as an appropriate figure for gold as a share of its reserves.

Meanwhile, the Chinese have expanded their gold holdings from 395 tonnes in 2001 to over 1,000 tonnes in

2009 (see attached chart). While this is barely more than 1% of their total foreign reserves, it is enough to make them the world’s sixth largest holder of gold. China has concentrated on purchasing domestically-produced gold. If it continues with that strategy it will rapidly surpass all European holders of gold within five years. If it commits just a small portion of its over $200 billion trade surplus to purchasing gold instead of dollar assets it would rapidly close the gap on the United States, the world’s largest holder of gold. India recently bought 200 tonnes from the IMF and appears to have plans to add to this total. Most Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the U.A.E. are seriously under-exposed to gold and over-exposed to the US dollar. As oil exporters whose primary product is priced in oil, their vulnerability to dollar devaluation is both real and exacerbated.

The recent crisis with declining oil prices followed by a return to dollar depreciation promises to put the finances of many Gulf states under increasing financial pressure. Having a hedge against further declines in the dollar makes a great deal of sense for countries that are so closely tied to the United States. Had Dubai and the U.A.E. followed the Swiss model of holding a large portion of their foreign reserves in gold, the current concerns over the fate of Dubai World would be causing a lot less anxiety in financial markets. It is something for dollarexposed central banks to consider.

The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Air War College or the Department of Defense.

Professor of International Political Economy at US Air War College, Maxwell Air Force Base

46

Issues 1538/1539

25 December, 2009

42

Economics - Markets

Copenhagen

On December 18th, 2009, after arduous negotiations between heads of state at the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change, the United States, China, India, South Africa and Brazil reached what was politically spun as a “meaningful agreement�. Many in the global environmental community underlined, however, that although the deal was a historic step forward, it fell considerably Issues 1538/1539

short of an efficient tool in the effort to tackle climate change. Inter alia, the agreement pledges US$ 30 billion to help developing countries to implement greenhouse gas emissions cuts. This figure is to rise to US$ 100 billion by 2020. Although the agreement is non-biding, the American President Barack Obama underlined that aiming for a binding agreement would have meant making no progress at all.

49

25 December, 2009

Reviews Books

Issues 1538/1539

Readings

Reports

51

Reviews - Books

Riddle Me This Inside the Kingdom: Kings, Clerics, Modernists, Terrorists and the Struggle for Saudi Arabia Robert Lacey Hutchinson 2009 With styles and stories, Robert Lacey’s latest book brings to its readers great insight into the paradoxes that characterize Saudi society. In addressing its most controversial issues, Lacey manages to explain a country that is largely misunderstood by the rest of the world.

T

Saudi Arabia is a historical anomaly. At least this is what Robert Lacey argues in his latest book. It is a country filled with paradoxes that contradict the general social trends the rest of the world has followed. “Its survival defies the laws of logic and history. Look at its princely rulers, dressed in funny clothes, trusting in God rather than in man, and running their oil-rich country on principles most of the world has abandoned with relief”. And with this introduction, Lacey sets the tone for what proves to be an entertaining yet highly informative read on the country that is, for the most part, an enigma to the rest of the world.

Inside the Kingdom is a continuation of the work the author began in his first book on Saudi Arabia, The Kingdom. This volume, however, manages to break past records in terms of the insight he provides on the internal paradoxes of the country, and more interestingly, how its conservative religious culture has influenced its relationship to the rest of the world.

Lacey is daring in his coverage of 25 December, 2009

issues ranging from the presence of terrorists in Saudi Arabia, its special relationship with the US, the role of women, and how the royal family has adapted to changing times.

Beginning with one characteristic that perhaps intrigues most foreigners, Robert Lacey, reviews the historical conditions that have allowed Saudi Arabian society to cling to the conservative values that define the country today.

In this light, Lacey incorporates events like the siege of Mecca by Juhayman and the 9/11 attacks in a sociological explanation of how the evolution of the Bedouin tribes came to define their modern societies in comparatively conservative ways.

Referring more specifically to the siege of Mecca, Lacey explains how this event perhaps had more influence on the development of modern social mores than most other events in Saudi Arabia. His ability to convey this message however, lies in more than the historical facts he provides, and

even the first hand accounts that he incorporates into his story. As an accomplished writer, Lacey’s investigations are greatly complemented by his ability to emote to the reader the great sense of urgency that Saudis, both its rulers and its citizens, felt on that fateful day.

For example noting how the pious King Khaled had exclaimed with horror “I wish they had done that to my palace, not the mosque”.

Interestingly, Lacey explains that the trauma that this event caused for Saudi society, undid any shifts towards reform that might have been occurring at the time. Instead, it led to further closing of Saudi culture. Yet the legacy of this conservatism was questioned as a paradox. The various chapters that Lacey dedicates to the ideo52

Reviews - Books logical development of Osama Bin Laden, along with the trajectory towards extremism that other Saudis experienced in the late 90s, is a social critique of the role the religious establishment has had on impressionable youth.

Far from being disrespectful of tradition, Lacey manages to use examples of former members of terrorist groups to explain that Saudi Arabia has a problem, not with religion, but with an excess in conservatism inextricably linked to religion, which unfortunately has brought along with it intolerance. It is this intolerance, he argues, that partly explained why the majority of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudis and not mainly Yemenites.

Interestingly, in his analysis of the problem of the growth of terrorist groups in the Middle East more broadly, Lacey is able to identify a variety of risk factors that motivate individuals to partake in these acts. He explains that There was a hierarchy among jihadis. The Yemenis were at the bottom... they were so poor, they were sort of stuck. They were probably better off in Afghanistan than they were at home, and they couldn’t travel anywhere in any case… The Egyptians couldn’t travel much either, and they certainly could not go home. They were wanted men, without much money. The Saudis were at the top of the heap because we had money. A Saudi wasn’t desperate for $150… He could go home at any time. So if he was here, he’d come too die. He could do the big job.

In other words, Lacey exposes that part of the problem behind terrorism is economic. Left with no options at home, and believing in a cause encouraged a great Issues 1538/1539

Saudi Arabia is characterized by its unique history. It is a country very different in nature and culture from many other countries of the world. Its capacity to survive and occupy a unique position at the regional and international levels is a model worthy of examining and studying.

53

Reviews - Books number of individuals to become martyrs. But surely this is not the only cause of terrorism. How then does he explain the fact that various Saudis, who had more economic opportunities than their counterparts joined these jihadi movements?

The political map of the area has changed. Conditions have become suitable for a re-evaluation of the special relationship which brings together Saudi Arabia and the United States. It appears that the Bush administration's conduct was the main reason behind such developments.

It is here that his analysis of Osama Bin Laden is especially strong – an evaluation of how a privileged country in the Middle East, with comparatively strong ties to the West, could produce the leader of Al-Qaeda. Bin Laden, the son of a particularly welloff Saudi family, is portrayed as a man whose piety took an unfortunate form, as he was largely influenced by a Syrian member of the Muslim Brotherhood while he was still at school. Soon thereafter, the invasion of Afghanistan ignited in Osama a desire to support his Muslim brothers.

“Osama lobbied wealthy friends and relatives to raise what one associate described as a huge sum of money to support the mujahideen”. The catalyst for it all was religion – it was difficult for many at the time to accept the death of innocent Muslims.

The problem arose, however, when jihadis like Bin Laden saw the exit of Soviet forces from Afghanistan and did not put their weapons down, argued one interviewee. According to him, these men were lost in their interpretation of what was right, and as a result turned jihad into a global movement – a sort of defence of pan-Muslim nationalism.

It is not clear whether the changes that have occurred recently in the American foreign policy might lead to the recreation of strong American-Saudi relations.

25 December, 2009

Lacey’s portrayal of Bin Laden’s ideology, and his general interpretation of the power of extremist views in Saudi Arabia, echoed the development he describes in Juhayman’s own thinking. The implication throughout the book 54

Reviews - Books is clear, and one he notes that has been recognized by Saudi officials themselves: Mainly that while there are advantages to the conservative nature of Saudi society, the one grave disadvantage is the degree of extremism that it fosters. However, Inside the Kingdom is able to move beyond the sources of Islamist movements, and also takes a look into how Saudi Arabia has been addressing this issue.

A largely under-explored subject, Lacey dedicates a great amount of research to the rehabilitation of former terrorists. In doing so the author explores the measures the Saudi government has employed in this regard.

In fighting its war, the Ministry of the Interior has resorted to a novel tactic – marriage. No Saudi official will admit on the record that the kingdom’s terrorist problem might boil down to sexual frustration…

One cornerstone of the extremist rehab programme is to get the beneficiaries as they are called, settled down with a wife as soon as possible.

In addition to encouraging marriage, the government, Lacey reports, supports them in finding employment. Recounting the story of one former Guantanamo detainee, Khaled Al-Hubayshi, who after being released was given 60,000 riyals, the going rate for a dowry. Now settled, and with a job the former detainee says “The government has been good to me.

So why should I not be good to the government.”

The philosophy behind the rehabilitation of former terrorists according to the Ministry for the Interior is to build a national consensus that extremism is wrong, Issues 1538/1539

Saudi relations are no longer limited to America. They have become opened in front of many countries such as China, Russia and Europe.

55

Reviews - Books

"I wish they had occupied my palace instead of occupying the Grand Mosque" Pious King Khalid expressing his disturbance over the occupation of the Grand Mosque

and a way of doing so is through familial support. “In the last few months we have had nine young men surrender because their families brought them in. Whoever wins society will win this war.”

Thus far, it seems this tactic is promising.

However, when discussing the foundation of Saudi society, the family, one controversial subject is regularly addressed by the book – that is, the role of women in Saudi Arabia. It is perhaps the status of women, their limited rights in the eyes of foreigners, that makes Westerners feel most alienated from Saudis. Lacey tackles this subject exposing the differing levels of acceptance amongst women of the behaviour that is expected 25 December, 2009

of them while in Saudi Arabia.

The story of one woman, Suzanne Al-Mashhadi, a social worker who wrote an article on her position as a woman in Saudi Arabia in the Riyadh Newspaper Al-Hayat. In this article she overtly criticized the status of women in the country. Expecting criticism for her beliefs, she said however that she expected most of it to come from men. To her surprise, the opposite occurred.

Almost all the nasty emails, and certainly the really bitter ones, came from women – from other women who cursed me to hell: You are a liberal, you are a secular, you do not represent us. I wondered if some of the notes had

been sent by men pretending to be women. But the encouraging emails all seemed to come from men. When did Saudi men get so liberal? I wondered. I never noticed the change. This is the big problem in Saudi society.

A small anecdote, yet truly insightful into the structures that support Saudi society today. Lacey’s incorporation of this story serves as proof that while many women in the country may be against the expectations that are had of them, another strong proportion embrace these customs and feel their identity is threatened when these are questioned. The accusation of “liberal” (read westernized) echoes a similar tone, according to Lacey, expressed by the more 56

Reviews - Books conservative elements of the religious establishment in regard to different issues.

Interestingly, Lacey demonstrates that aside from what one would expect, the Royal family has done much to equilibrate the status of men and women. Beginning with another anecdote of the extreme attitude of some towards women, Lacey tells the unfortunate story of a girls’ school in Mecca that caught fire in 2002. The girls, dressed in their uniforms, had not had time to collect their abayas as they were trying to exit the building. Guarding the entrance of the building were members of the religious police, who did not allow the girls to exit the building without their abayas, leading to the death of fifteen girls, and the injury of at least 50 others. Yet in this case, the Saudi press gathered information and the scandal felt by communities led to the Crown Prince’s decision that it was time for change. “The Kingdom’s schools for girls would henceforward be supervised like those for boys, by the Ministry of Education.”

Although it may appear as a small sign of change to some, Lacey takes this example as proof of the Saudi government’s acknowledgement that there are conservative elements in Saudi society that have caused damage, and that need to be reformed. In this sense, Lacey’s portrayal of the royal family is one that depicts the majority of its members as greatly responsive to Saudi’s and their needs.

While Inside the Kingdom takes a look at a plethora of issues that define Saudi Arabia’s place internationally, Lacey pays a great amount of attention to its relationship with the United States. As one of America’s closest allies in Issues 1538/1539

The king of Saudi Arabia amid the poor

The Saudi society has its own specials culture and traditions which are not known to the West

The Saudi leadership has done much to achieve equality between men and women.

57

Reviews - Books the Middle East, Lacey demonstrates how Saudi Arabia has been put in difficult positions when the US’s interference in the region has been deemed questionable by other Arab countries. One notable example is the case of the Gulf War. After having believed the promises of Sadam Hussein that he would respect the sovereignty of Kuwait, the Saudi government felt understandably betrayed and threatened. Facing the rise of tensions in the region, and the willingness of the US to intervene, the King at the time had to manage internal opposition to the presence of US bases in the country.

Lacey recounts how

Prince Saud al-Faisal handles the file of Saudi Arabia's foreign relations with skill and efficiency.

Faced with an armed threat on his border, Fahd obviously spoke to his military, but his most important calls were to the religious establishment, and to Abdul Aziz Bin Baz in particular. Would the Ulema support him, asked the king if he had to turn to America for military assistance? The answer was a prompt and unanimous no.

The Wahhabi tradition… was to seek separation from non-believers: ‘Let there not be two religions in Arabia.’

A similar distrust of American forces in Saudi Arabia was felt by citizens who believed what one Saudi described:

Prince Mohammed bin Nayef is considered by international experts as the most important active Arab figure in the war against terrorism. He survived an assassination attempt by terrorist groups last August. His efforts have helped hundreds in Saudi Arabia to abandon their wrong ideas.

25 December, 2009

When I saw those huge American convoys travelling, I knew that they had not come here for me, for my people, or for my government what nonsense to say that they had come halfway around the world to protect me! They had come to protect their own interests – because they didn’t want Saddam to control their oil...

Given the questionable interests of the US in the Middle East, and the general distrust this at58

Reviews - Books titude fomented, Saudi Arabia’s relationship to the US, if only for internal pressures has been complicated despite its relative closeness. Never was this clearer according to Lacey than after 9/11 when the special relationship was re-evaluated by both sides, with Saudi Arabia looking to replace its dependence on the US by coming closer to other powerful countries like China and Russia.

Prince Bandar bin Sultan liked to compare the long standing USSaudi relationship to a Catholic Marriage. There might be rows and dalliance, he would say ….

But the marriage would go on forever. Then in the spring of 2004 his nominal boss, Prince Saud AlFaisal… out-twinkled his cousin with a new definition. “It is not a Catholic marriage... It’s a Muslim marriage.” The Muslim husband is allowed up to four wives, providing that he treats them all with fairness – so that would be Saudi Arabia’s new course in the difficult days that followed 9/11.

The new relationships that Saudi Arabia has developed with other countries which have interests in the region is indicative of the changes that took place in the international arena following 9/11 and the invasion of Iraq. These events, Lacey notes, altered the political topography of the region and created conditions in which the special relationship Saudi Arabia previously had with the US demanded a re-evaluation.

While the conduct of the Bush administration appears to have had a heavy hand in these developments, it us unclear whether recent changes in American foreign policy will imply a renewed strength to the American-Saudi bond.

Overall, Inside the Kingdom is Issues 1538/1539

King Abdullah has not stopped his efforts to achieve Palestinian reconciliation and to restore warm relations between Arab countries.

daring in its ability to address a multiplicity of issues that have shaped Saudi Arabia. Lacey’s strength in presenting this country to readers unfamiliar with its culture and history lies in his ability to provide anecdote after anecdote, creating a real sense of the values that people in the country hold dear. Entertaining and infor-

mative at its best, Inside the Kingdom is recommendable to those looking for insight into Saudi Arabia’s paradoxes from a Westerner’s perspective – yet filled with substantial support from Middle Eastern and Saudi sources – Lacey’s investigative work gives further weight to the conclusions his latest book arrives at.

59

Reviews - Books

Readings Books The Red Flag: A History of Communism

Cover

David Priestland Grove Press November 20, 2009 In The Red Flag, Oxford professor David Priestland tells the epic story of a movement that has taken root in dozens of countries across two hundred years, from its birth after the French Revolution to its ideological maturity in nineteenth-century Germany to its rise to dominance and fall in the twentieth century. Beginning with the first modern Communists in the age of Robespierre, Priestland examines the motives of thinkers and leaders including Marx, Engels, Lenin, Stalin, Castro, Che Guevara, Mao, Ho Chi Minh, Gorbachev, and many others.

What I Believe

Cover

Tariq Ramdan Oxford University Press, USA October 6, 2009 Tariq Ramadan is very much a public figure, named one of Time magazine's most important innovators of the twenty-first century. He is among the leading Islamic thinkers in the West, with a large following around the world. But he has also been a lightning rod for controversy. Indeed, in 2004, Ramadan was prevented from entering the U.S. by the Bush administration and despite two appeals, supported by organizations like the American Academy of Religion and the ACLU, he is still barred from the country at this time. In What I Believe, Ramadan attempts to set the record straight, laying out the basic ideas he stands for in clear and accessible prose.

Reports Hostile Shores Human Rights Watch December 20, 2009

This report documents the harsh treatment of refugees traveling to Yemen and calls on the Yemeni government to stop systematically arresting Ethiopian asylum seekers and forcibly returning them home.

Podcast Growing China-Mideast Ties Council on Foreign Relations December 14, 2009 The Council on Foreign Relations interviewed Ben Simpfendorfer, Chief China Economist, Royal Bank of Scotland, Hong Kong. China became the largest exporter to the Mideast in 2008, overtaking the United States with nearly $60 billion of exports. This Podcast explores the development of this important relation.

25 December, 2009

60

Issues 1538/1539

53

Reviews - Reports

To Integrate or Alienate ?

Europe: Integrating Islam Council on Foreign Relations Toni Johnson December 1,2009

Ever since the 9/11 attacks tensions have been rising between Western Europe and its Muslim population. Incidents such as 2006 Danish cartoon and the ban of head scarf in France heightened sensitivities and made it far more complicated for Muslims in Europe.

I

t seems that fear and a mutual misunderstanding has been shaping the relationship between Western Europe and its Muslim population ever since 9/11 attacks. The Muslim population in Western Europe is perceived as a problem for European governments and citizens alike – especially with regards to policies of integration. The Council of 25 December, 2009

Foreign Relations confronts this issue in its recent report entitled Integrating Islam.

Integrating Islam is an overview focusing on Muslim population in Western Europe. In its introduction it marks the main incidents that increased the tension between several western European countries w their Muslim population,

such as 2004 London attacks, 2004 ban of head scarf in France and 2006 Danish cartoon incident.

The report adopts the notion that Western Europe's Muslims are poorly integrated in society. It tracks the history of Muslims in Western Europe which dates back to after the Second World War as immigrants were welcomed to 62

Reviews - Reports help rebuild Europe. According to the report special emphasis on Muslim minorities in Europe started to rise after the establishment of Islamic regimes such as Iran and again after 9/11 attacks.

sion, the report places less emphasis on the socioeconomic factors that lead to their assimilation and instead addresses the type of Islam that those better-assimilated Muslims follow.

Interestingly, the report demonstrates that the European Union has been witnessing increasing influx of immigrants from all around the globe in the last decade. The EU country with the largest Muslim minority is France with an estimated 8 percent of the population defining themselves as Muslims. The total Muslim population in Western Europe overall is about 20 million of the EU's 500 million residents. However, it seems that problem of integrating Muslim communities may become stronger in the future as some analysts estimate a surge of immigrants hailing from Islamic countries, in addition to higher birth rates amongst Muslim families already in Europe.

The report also addresses customs like wearing the veil and prohibitions against drinking as norms that seem foreign to European culture, and that equally promote self-segregating trends. However, a significant weakness in the report’s assessment was its comparison of the Muslim community in Europe to the closed Amish community in the United States. This is a weak argument as Muslims throughout history has been known to successfully incorporate themselves in different cultures. Furthermore, the case of the Amish community in the US is an extreme example of self-segregation and one that is under-explored if it is to be used as an illuminating comparison with the Muslim communities in Europe.

The report delineates various challenges that the Muslim population in Europe may face. With regards to poverty and segregation, the report states that Muslim communities tend to be poorer than other communities within the EU. While the report notes that segregation may be associated to the economic problems that seem to plague Muslim communities, they also acknowledge that Muslims tend to self-segregate as a result of language barriers and differing religious and social customs.

In this point, however, the report proves rather contradictory as it presents the view that analysts assure that middle-class Muslims assimilate better in Europe. However, with regards to this discusIssues 1538/1539

In reference to cultural integration, the report states that although there are signs that Muslims in Europe generally believe in and practice democracy; others believe that democracy is at odds with Muslim culture. This claim refers especially to women’s rights, freedom of speech and the separation of church and state. Nevertheless the report does not present any empirical convincing evidence to support that Islam contradicts with democracy in Europe.

The report admits that Muslims face many kinds of discrimination from employment to housing.

It also highlights the double standards of media when dealing with Muslims in Europe; giving ex-

ample of the murder of film maker Van Gogh and how it was dealt with in the media in comparison to Marwa El Sherbiny who was killed in Germany. When it comes to discrimination the report notes that bias goes both ways and that Muslim "anti-Semitism" in Europe is evident.

In an attempt to be objective and present all the different views in this topic, the report seems rather contradictory. It lacks sufficient research of Muslim culture in order to support its claims. The report also lacks practical policy recommendations to ameliorate the situation Muslims face in Europe.

Instead, it limits itself to wide range of recommendations that range from strengthening the intelligence within countries to starting Imam training for Muslims.

Furthermore, discussion about notions such as self-segregation amount to blaming Muslims and Islam for the inability of two communities to integrate with one another. As a result, focusing excessively on problems of selfsegregation undermine other arguments that have more practical solutions like the socioeconomic problems associated to the discrimination that Muslims in Western Europe face. However, the report does manage to imply that the question of integration is complicated by a vicious cycle mechanism, in which discrimination leads to socioeconomic problems which further segregation, and in turn inhibit a mutual understanding of the different communities that are present in Western Europe.

For the full report, refer to: www.cfr.org 63

The Political Essay

A Secret That Everybody Knows The drones and the “battle for the hearts and minds” From a humanitarian perspective, 33 per cent of civilian casualties is a considerably high figure. And while the drones’ invisibility provides an alternative for what would otherwise be an unsustainable military presence, some of the most negative consequences of the drone attacks are also invisible.

T

his past August, Beitullah Mehsud, considered the top leader of the Pakistani Taliban, was sheltered in a farmhouse in the village of Zanghara in South Waziristan. He was reportedly receiving treatment for his kidney problems related to a diabetic condition. Together with him was his wife, a few other members of his family, and several bodyguards. In a few seconds, two missiles destroyed the farmhouse and killed most people inside it, including Mehsud. To this date, the Taliban leader is the most high profile casualty of the drones, the pilot-less plane programme operated by the C.I.A. all the way from the United States.

Meshud was undoubtedly a big catch.

He was identified by Pakistani authorities to be behind Benazir Bhutto’s assassination and the bombing of the Marriot Hotel in Islamabad, among several other suicide attacks. Above all, the activities of his network were a major threat to the stability and security of the Pakistani state. Regarding the counterinsurgency effort in Afghanistan, the porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan allows the Afghan Taliban and other militants to escape to Pakistan territory, where regular US troops cannot chase them.

The drone attacks are thus the solution the US army and intelligence found to go around this obstacle.

Counter-terrorism experts have observed the advantages of a programme which allows the C.I.A. to hunt down high profile terrorists and militants. When asked about the positive aspects of the drones programme, William Cohen, former Defence Secretary for the Clinton Administration, told me that ‘it is a delicate situation for Pakistan that obviously does not welcome any foreign troops operating inside the country.’ However, ‘to the extent that the US is able to operate 25 December, 2009

Manuel Almeida the drones under their control, then they perceive that as something quite beneficial. It has been quite successful’, he added. It is this apparently invisible presence of the drones that is considered the most important aspect of this programme. It allows the US to monitor insurgents and kill them in situations that would either be too risky or politically untenable for US troops to be sent in, and apparently it is much cheaper too.

While the Obama Administration is a strong supporter of this strategy, which is backed in Congress by both Republicans and Democrats, the Pakistan government has officially expressed its concerns about what it considers a violation of its sovereignty. These declarations, however, are clearly directed to appease a Pakistani audience who is very sceptical of the country’s ties with the United States.

In reality, all seems to indicate that the Pakistani government secretly allows the US to conduct such attacks (it is even reported that it requested that the US provide such technology to the Pakistani army). Not surprisingly, the success of the drone strike that killed Mehsud is attributed to a close collaboration between Pakistani intelligence and the C.I.A. Most studies which look at the number of casualties caused by drone attacks

in Pakistan present extremely conflicting results, with huge disparities between each study in what concerns both the number of militants killed and that of civilian casualties. Perhaps the most reliable study to date on the casualties of the drone attacks is an assessment of the existent assessments made by Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann from the New America Foundation. This study was based on several sources such as The New York Times, Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Agence France-Press, CNN, BBC and the Pakistanis Daily Times and The News. Bergman and Tiedemann concluded that, in just over 80 drone attacks in Pakistan, between 600 and 800, or 66 and 68 per cent of those killed were militants. This means that for two militants killed one civilian life is lost.

From a humanitarian perspective, 33 per cent of civilian casualties is a considerably high figure. And while the drones’ invisibility provides an alternative for what would otherwise be an unsustainable military presence, some of the most negative consequences of the drone attacks are also invisible. If counter-terrorism experts find this programme a real asset, some counterinsurgency specialists have been firm in pointing out that it sends the wrong message to the Pakistani people. Today, ordinary Pakistanis have begun to realise, for the worst reasons – such as the fighting in Swat Valley and the intensification of suicide attacks against civilian targets – that the war against militants is indeed their war. This acknowledgement is very important for the legitimacy of Pakistani efforts to crack down on insurgents. Also in this perspective, and bearing in mind that the crucial element in counter-insurgency is the “battle for the hearts and minds” of the local population, the drones are undeniably a source for concern.

64

Issues 1538/1539

53

25 December, 2009