11.1 Scenarios for future: Planning for uncertainties Towards formulating an adaptive framework for decision making
The previous chapters showcased the vision and strategic interventions proposed for achieving a water resilient future for the region of Marathwada and creating a more sustainable and transparent supply chain in cotton production and consumption. However there are many uncertainties that can occur in the future that will affect in the implementation of these strategies. By imaging different future scenarios of possibilities, it can be ensured that an adaptive system can be achieved irrespective of what the future may hold. Bohensky et al., defines scenario planning as ‘a set of plausible not probable narratives’ that has the ability to depict alternative pathways that can help predict the future changes (Bohensky, Reyers, & Van Jaarsveld, 2006). This thesis looks at the two axis based on the two systems that are at either ends of supply chain. The vertical axis looks at the degree of decentralisation based on the sending system. The horizontal axis looks at the extent of compensation from the receiving system. This gives rise to the four scenarios as explained below namely; (1)harmony, (2) indifference, (3)dependency and (4)despair. These scenarios then help formulate the policy actions and simplify the complexities in the outcomes.
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Conclusion
(Sending system)
11.1 Scenarios for future: Planning for uncertainties 11.2 Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) 11.3 Conclusions
(Receiving system)
Fig 11.1 Four scenarios
Source: by author based on the Dutch climate scenarios
Appropriation of Water
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Appropriation of Water
