PORTFOLIO MANAGER’S REVIEW A Monthly Publication of BeyondProxy LLC
August 27, 2010
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When asked how he became so successful, Buffett answered: “we read hundreds and hundreds of annual reports every year.” Edited by the
Manual of Ideas Research Team “If our efforts can further the goals of our members by giving them a discernible edge over other market participants, we have succeeded.”
Top Five Ideas In This Report African Barrick Gold (UK: ABG) ……………………… p. 66
Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) ………………….. p. 78
Ensco
THE SUPERINVESTOR REPORT ► Snapshot of 100 companies owned by superinvestors ► Latest holdings of 50+ top investors, including MOI’s proprietary Signal Value™ idea ranking ► 20 companies profiled by MOI research team ► Proprietary selection of Top 5 candidates for investment ► Plus: Favorite stock screens for value investors ► Plus: Exclusive interview with Ken Shubin Stein
(NYSE: ESV) ………………….. p. 82
NCR (NYSE: NCR) ………………… p. 102
Vodafone (UK: VOD, Nasdaq: VOD) ….. p. 118
Also Inside Editor’s Commentary …………….. p. 5 Interview: Ken Shubin Stein ……. p. 9 Portfolios with Signal Value™ … p. 14 New/Increased Holdings ………. p. 66 Unchanged/Offsetting Holdings p. 126 100 Superinvestor Stocks …….. p. 146 Favorite Value Screens ……….. p. 162 Top 10 Online Resources ……… p. 172
About Portfolio Manager’s Review Our goal is to bring you investment ideas that are compelling on the basis of value versus price. In our quest for value, we analyze the top holdings of top fund managers. We also use a proprietary methodology to identify stocks that are not widely followed by institutional investors. Our research team has extensive experience in industry and security analysis, equity valuation, and investment management. We bring a “buy side” mindset to the idea generation process, cutting across industries and market capitalization ranges in our search for compelling equity investment opportunities.
Superinvestor companies mentioned in this issue include African Barrick Gold, American Capital, American International Group, Aon Corp., Apollo Group, Apple, Arris Group, Automatic Data Processing, Bally Technologies, Bank of America, Bank of NY Mellon, Baxter, BP, Broadridge Financial, Canadian Natural Resources, CF Industries, Chesapeake Energy, Citigroup, Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Cooper Tire & Rubber, Corning, Covidien, DaVita, Dell, DIRECTV, Discovery Communications, Dollar Tree, eBay, Ensco, Enstar Group, Estee Lauder, Fiserv, Franklin Resources, GameStop, General Electric, Goldman Sachs, Google, H&R Block, Hess, Innophos, Intel, Ituran Location, Jo-Ann Stores, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, Key Energy Services, Kraft Foods, Leap Wireless, Liberty Media Interactive, Life Technologies, Lincare, Live Nation, Lowe's, Macquarie Infrastructure, Macy's, MasterCard, MBIA, McClatchy, McDonald's, Merck, Microsoft, Nalco Holding, NCR Corp., News Corp., Novartis, Ocwen Financial, Oracle, Pfizer, Philip Morris, Pinnacle Airlines, Potash, Pride International, Redwood Trust, Republic Airways, Reynolds American, Sears Holdings, Service Corp. International, Smurfit-Stone, Sprint Nextel, SuperMedia, Symantec, Target, Tennessee Commerce Banc, Teva Pharmaceuticals, Time Warner, Transocean, TravelCenters, Tree.com, Tyco International, U.S. Bancorp, Union Pacific, Viacom, ViaSat, Visa, Vodafone, Wal-Mart, Walt Disney, Washington Post, Wells Fargo, Xerium Technologies, Xerox, Yum! Brands, and more.
(profiled companies are underlined)
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Table of Contents EDITOR’S COMMENTARY .............................................................................5 EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH KEN SHUBIN STEIN ..................................9 50+ PORTFOLIOS WITH SIGNAL VALUE™ .............................................. 14 AKRE CAPITAL (CHUCK AKRE) ................................................................................................ 15 APPALOOSA (DAVID TEPPER) ................................................................................................. 16 BARES CAPITAL (BRIAN BARES).............................................................................................. 17 BAUPOST (SETH KLARMAN) .................................................................................................... 18 BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY (W ARREN BUFFETT) ........................................................................... 19 BLUE RIDGE (JOHN GRIFFIN) .................................................................................................. 20 BP CAPITAL (BOONE PICKENS)............................................................................................... 21 BRAVE WARRIOR (GLENN GREENBERG) .................................................................................. 22 BREEDEN CAPITAL (RICHARD BREEDEN) ................................................................................. 23 CENTAUR CAPITAL (ZEKE ASHTON) ........................................................................................ 24 CHILDREN’S INVESTMENT (CHRIS HOHN) ................................................................................. 25 CHOU ASSOCIATES (FRANCIS CHOU) ...................................................................................... 26 CLARIUM (PETER THIEL) ........................................................................................................ 27 EAGLE (BOYKIN CURRY) ........................................................................................................ 28 EDINBURGH PARTNERS (SANDY NAIRN) .................................................................................. 29 ESL INVESTMENTS (EDDIE LAMPERT) ..................................................................................... 30 FAIRFAX (PREM W ATSA) ........................................................................................................ 31 FAIRHOLME (BRUCE BERKOWITZ) ........................................................................................... 32 FIRST PACIFIC (BOB RODRIGUEZ AND STEVEN ROMICK) ........................................................... 33 GATES CAPITAL (JEFF GATES) ............................................................................................... 34 GLENVIEW (LARRY ROBBINS) ................................................................................................. 35 GREENLIGHT (DAVID EINHORN) .............................................................................................. 36 GRUSS (HOWARD GUBERMAN) ............................................................................................... 37 H PARTNERS (REHAN JAFFER) ............................................................................................... 38 HARBINGER (PHIL FALCONE) .................................................................................................. 39 HAWKSHAW (KIAN GHAZI) ...................................................................................................... 40 ICAHN CAPITAL (CARL ICAHN) ................................................................................................. 41 KLEINHEINZ CAPITAL (JOHN KLEINHEINZ) ................................................................................ 42 LANE FIVE (LISA RAPUANO).................................................................................................... 43 LEUCADIA (IAN CUMMING AND JOE STEINBERG) ....................................................................... 44 LONE PINE (STEVE MANDEL) .................................................................................................. 45 MARKEL GAYNER (TOM GAYNER) ........................................................................................... 46 MAVERICK (LEE AINSLE) ........................................................................................................ 47 MHR (MARK RACHESKY) ....................................................................................................... 48 MSD CAPITAL (GLENN FUHRMAN AND JOHN PHELAN) .............................................................. 49 PABRAI FUNDS (MOHNISH PABRAI) ......................................................................................... 50 PAULSON & CO. (JOHN PAULSON) .......................................................................................... 51 PENNANT (ALAN FOURNIER) ................................................................................................... 52 PERSHING SQUARE (BILL ACKMAN) ........................................................................................ 53 SAGEVIEW (ED GILHULY AND SCOTT STUART) ......................................................................... 54 SCOUT (JAMES CRICHTON) .................................................................................................... 55 SECOND CURVE (TOM BROWN) .............................................................................................. 56 SHUMWAY CAPITAL (CHRIS SHUMWAY) ................................................................................... 57 SOUTHEASTERN (MASON HAWKINS) ....................................................................................... 58 THIRD POINT (DAN LOEB)....................................................................................................... 59 TIGER GLOBAL (CHASE COLEMAN) ......................................................................................... 60 VIKING GLOBAL (ANDREAS HALVORSEN) ................................................................................. 61 WEITZ FUNDS (WALLY WEITZ) ................................................................................................ 62 WEST COAST (LANCE HELFERT AND PAUL ORFALEA) ............................................................... 63 WINTERGREEN (DAVID W INTERS) ........................................................................................... 64 WL ROSS & CO. (WILBUR ROSS) ........................................................................................... 65
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NEW OR INCREASED SUPERINVESTOR HOLDINGS ............................. 66 AFRICAN BARRICK GOLD (UK: ABG) – GREENLIGHT ......................................................... 66 AON CORP. (AON) – BREEDEN , FPA , SOUTHEASTERN , WEITZ ............................... 70 BALLY TECHNOLOGIES (BYI) – BREEDEN ............................................................................. 74 CHESAPEAKE ENERGY (CHK) – BP CAPITAL , ICAHN , SOUTHEASTERN ............................ 78 ENSCO (ESV) – BLUE RIDGE , EAGLE , GREENLIGHT , ICAHN ............................ 82 ESTEE LAUDER (EL) – LONE PINE , VIKING .................................................................... 86 GAMESTOP (GME) – CENTAUR .......................................................................................... 90 MBIA (MBI) – FAIRFAX , FAIRHOLME .......................................................................... 94 NALCO HOLDING (NLC) – BERKSHIRE , MSD ................................................................... 98 NCR CORP. (NCR) – GREENLIGHT ................................................................................ 102 SERVICE CORP. INTERNATIONAL (SCI) – SOUTHEASTERN ................................................... 106 TEVA PHARMA (TEVA) – BLUE RIDGE , EAGLE , MARKEL , MAVERICK ..................... 110 TREE.COM (TREE) – SECOND CURVE , WEITZ ................................................................ 114 VODAFONE (VOD) – CENTAUR , EAGLE , FPA , KLEINHEINZ , SOUTHEASTERN .... 118 XERIUM TECHNOLOGIES (XRM) – THIRD POINT ............................................................... 122
UNCHANGED OR OFFSETTING SUPERINVESTOR HOLDINGS .......... 126 AAPLE (AAPL) – BLUE RIDGE , GREENLIGHT , KLEINHEINZ , LONE PINE .................... 126 GOOGLE (GOOG) – BRAVE W ARRIOR , GLENVIEW , MAVERICK , VIKING ................ 130 LIBERTY INTERACTIVE (LINTA) – EAGLE , SOUTHEASTERN , THIRD POINT , WEITZ ...... 134 SUPERMEDIA (SPMD) – APPALOOSA , FAIRFAX , PAULSON ........................................ 138 TRAVELCENTERS OF AMERICA (TA) – BARES , LEUCADIA ............................................... 142
SNAPSHOT OF 100 SUPERINVESTOR HOLDINGS ............................... 146 IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER ..................................................................................................... 146 BY MARKET VALUE .............................................................................................................. 148 BY SECTOR......................................................................................................................... 150 STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE .............................................................................................. 152 FREE CASH FLOW ............................................................................................................... 154 P/E MULTIPLES ................................................................................................................... 156 PERCENTILE RANK WITHIN INDUSTRY .................................................................................... 158 LATEST EARNINGS SURPRISES ............................................................................................. 160
FAVORITE STOCK SCREENS FOR VALUE INVESTORS ...................... 162 “MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON TRAILING OPERATING INCOME ................................................. 163 “MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON THIS YEAR’S EPS ESTIMATES ................................................. 164 “MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON NEXT YEAR’S EPS ESTIMATES ................................................ 165 CONTRARIAN: BIGGEST YTD LOSERS (DELEVERAGED & PROFITABLE) ..................................... 166 VALUE WITH CATALYST: CHEAP REPURCHASERS OF STOCK ................................................... 167 PROFITABLE DIVIDEND PAYORS WITH DECENT BALANCE SHEETS............................................ 168 DEEP VALUE: LOTS OF REVENUE, LOW ENTERPRISE VALUE ................................................... 169 DEEP VALUE: NEGLECTED GROSS PROFITEERS .................................................................... 170 ACTIVIST TARGETS: POTENTIAL SALES, LIQUIDATIONS OR RECAPS ......................................... 171
THIS MONTH’S TOP 10 WEB LINKS ....................................................... 172
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Editor’s Commentary What a summer it’s been! With Mr. Market wholly lacking in generosity of spirit, we hope you’ve at least found some time to relax and enjoy the company of family and friends. We are pleased to be back with another Superinvestor Issue, surveying the top ideas of some of the most successful investors in the business. Starting with this report, we are more than doubling our coverage of superinvestor buys and sells. Inside, you’ll find us analyzing the portfolios of 50+ investment managers. New additions include John Griffin’s Blue Ridge, Boone Pickens’s BP Capital, Boykin Curry’s Eagle Capital, Bob Rodriguez’s First Pacific Advisors, Larry Robbins’s Glenview, Phil Falcone’s Harbinger, and Lee Ainsle’s Maverick, to name a few. For each of the 50+ investment firms, we show not only their latest top holdings by quoted value but also based on our proprietary Signal Rank™ methodology. The latter aims to answer the question, What are this investor’s best ideas right now? Of all the superinvestor holdings we came across while researching this report, the following five companies struck as particularly interesting, timely opportunities: African Barrick Gold (UK: ABG; $9 per ADS; MV $4 billion) is a carve-out of the Tanzanian assets of Barrick Gold (ABX), which sold a quarter of ABG in an IPO this past March. The new public company appears to have been overlooked by investors and represents one of the cheapest ways to invest in a gold miner with a large base of exploration assets. ABG’s enterprise value implies a purchase price of roughly $200 per ounce of proved and probable gold reserves. The company’s cash cost is roughly $500-550 per ounce, leaving a handsome “profit spread” for those investing in ABG at recent prices. Another positive feature of ABG is the company’s net cash position of more than $300 million, which should enable management to increase production without raising additional equity capital. Finally, management incentives are better aligned with those of shareholders now that ABG is a standalone public company. A reason investors may have overlooked the company is ABG’s high proportion of probable relative to proved reserves. This makes the shares appear less attractively priced when viewed solely from the standpoint of proved gold resources. However, ABG resource base is well-defined and offers opportunities for multi-year production growth. David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital purchased a stake in ABG during the second quarter. Chesapeake Energy (CHK; $20 per share; MV $13 billion) has for some time been synonymous with the vast untapped opportunity in U.S. onshore natural gas shale plays. As gas prices have remained depressed relative to oil prices longer than most expected, it appears many investors have slowly but surely given up on the company. While the near-term outlook for natural gas remains unfavorable, the underlying value of Chesapeake’s assets and the lagging stock price have once again attracted considerable superinvestor interest. Famed oil and gas investor Boone Pickens more than doubled his fund’s stake in Chesapeake during the second quarter. Carl Icahn’s firm boosted its position from two million to nearly 13 million shares, while Mason Hawkins’s Southeastern Asset Management slightly added to its stake, which amounts to a considerable 12% of Chesapeake. Only David Winters’s mutual fund went against the grain, selling out of a relatively small position. Our analysis of Chesapeake suggests that the value of proved reserves alone may be sufficient to justify the recent stock price, based on NYMEX strip pricing. When one considers © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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the fact that the company’s unproved reserves amount to roughly 15 times proved reserves, the upside in Chesapeake becomes clear. It’s worth noting that the company is run by one of the most highly regarded executives in the business — Aubrey McClendon — and that Chesapeake can credibly claim to be one of the natural gas industry’s low-cost producers (Contango is another). McClendon, who has shown shrewdness in timing the company’s purchases and sales of natural gas price hedges, has recently begun emphasizing crude oil reserves as a part of Chesapeake’s mix. This move appears to have been interpreted negatively by the market — after all, if the industry’s leader is perceived as moving away from natural gas, then what does this mean for the future of gas? However, we interpret McClendon’s moves simply as another way of safeguarding shareholder value, regardless of whether or not the relationship between oil and gas prices returns to its historical norm. After all, while McClendon may be better than most at predicting natural gas price, no one knows what the price of natural gas will be in five years. This truism lies at the crux of the investment thesis for Chesapeake: If natural gas prices remain depressed, Chesapeake will likely preserve equity value (net income is projected at ~$3 per share in each of the next couple of years). However, if gas prices rise to the high single digits, shareholders may reap multiples of their investment. Ensco (ESV; $42 per share; MV $6 billion), a provider of offshore contract oil drilling services, predictably saw its stock price decline in the wake of the BP oil spill in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. There is only one issue: Most of Ensco’s business is conducted globally rather than in the Gulf of Mexico, and the company can shift additional assets to global arenas if necessary. It appears unlikely that Ensco’s longterm earning power will be materially affected by the aftermath of the BP oil spill. Several superinvestors picked up on this simple thesis as others panicked during Q2, with David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital initiating a position of seven million shares in Ensco. Carl Icahn, Chuck Akre, Boykin Curry and John Griffin also built new positions in the company. Bob Rodriguez already owned shares of Ensco and added to them during the quarter. No superinvestor on our list sold the stock. Based on analyst estimates, Ensco should earn more than $4 per share in 2011, implying a forward earnings multiple of just under 10x. We view this as quite low given Ensco’s growing earnings power and deleveraged balance sheet ($1 billion of net cash). The opportunity to purchase Ensco at a price roughly in line with tangible book value may not be long-lived, as the company’s portfolio of deepwater assets is one of the most attractive in the contract drilling industry. NCR Corp. (NCR; $13 per share; MV $2 billion), one of the leading makers of ATMs and retail point-of-sale terminals, represents a classic case of non-operating expenses and growth expenditures masking strong underlying cash generation. In NCR’s case, accounting losses on pension obligations and start-up losses related to the emerging DVD self-service kiosk business may have led investors to miss the company’s underlying profitability. The core ATM and retail terminal operations should generate operating EPS of $1.50-1.60 in 2010. The core business benefits from a large installed base, providing a recurring stream of service income and the potential for replacement product sales. While the outsized pension plan represents a capital structure risk, we believe the market’s low valuation of NCR more than compensates investors for taking this risk (excluding pension obligations, NCR has a net cash position of roughly $400 million). Even if pension and related liabilities are taken at their accounting cost of $1.5 billion — likely overstated given current low interest rates and depressed asset values — investors are getting the core ATM/retail business for 8x estimated 2010 EBIT, with no value attached to the large growth opportunity in DVD self-service kiosks. David Einhorn purchased more than eleven million shares of NCR in the second quarter. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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Vodafone (VOD; $23; MV $124 billion), the mobile communications services provider with a global presence, continues to sell roughly 30% below our fair value estimate, implying roughly 50% share price upside for a stable company with a 6% dividend yield. The dividend payout is supported by the company’s free cash flow generation even excluding any contribution from Vodafone’s 45% ownership of Verizon Wireless. This stake in the number one U.S. mobile operator may be Vodafone’s single most valuable asset, and we believe the market’s continued ignorance of its value provides an interesting investment opportunity (the financials of Verizon Wireless are not consolidated on Vodafone’s financial statements, as Verizon exercises control over the jointly owned company). An upward re-rating of Vodafone shares could come following a resumption of cash distributions from Verizon Wireless beyond the recent level of tax pass-throughs. Regardless of how Verizon Wireless and other unconsolidated assets are monetized, Vodafone’s sumof-the-parts valuation implies that the consolidated business trades at 4-5x trailing EBITDA. This appears too low given Vodafone’s strong European market share, growth prospects in emerging markets, and margin improvement potential. Vodafone attracted significant superinvestor interest during the second quarter, with Francis Chou, Mason Hawkins and John Kleinheinz initiating new positions in the company, and Zeke Ashton, Boykin Curry and Bob Rodriguez increasing existing positions. David Einhorn appears to have maintained Greenlight’s stake in Vodafone. For those of you looking for a superinvestor-owned gem in the micro-cap space, we point to Tree.com (TREE; $7 per share; MV $80 million), a technology-driven provider of online services to U.S. real estate industry participants. The company owns the popular LendingTree and RealEstate.com websites, yet trades roughly in line with net liquid assets. Founder and CEO Doug Lebda owns 14% of Tree.com, having purchased a substantial chunk of shares last year. Lebda appears both capable and focused on growing shareholder value, a combination that could produce longterm rewards for investors. Finally, we are pleased to bring you an exclusive interview with Ken Shubin Stein, founder of Spencer Capital. Ken is a highly regarded deep value investor who an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. In the interview, Ken provides valuable insight into various aspects of his investment philosophy and shares his latest view on Sears Holdings (SHLD). Sincerely,
John Mihaljevic, CFA and The Manual of Ideas research team
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The Manual of Ideas research team is gratified to have won high praise for our investment idea generation process and analytical work.
“An invaluable tool for the serious investor.” —TIM DAVIS, MANAGING DIRECTOR, BLUESTEM ASSET MANAGEMENT “We do similar work ourselves.” —GLENN GREENBERG, MANAGING DIRECTOR, BRAVE WARRIOR CAPITAL “The Manual of Ideas is a tremendous effort and very well put together.” —MOHNISH PABRAI, MANAGING PARTNER, PABRAI INVESTMENT FUNDS “Outstanding.” —JONATHAN HELLER, CFA, EDITOR, CHEAP STOCKS “Your reports provide serious investors with a plethora of bargain stocks.” —MIGUEL BARBOSA, EDITOR, SIMOLEON SENSE “Very impressive.” —SHAI DARDASHTI, MANAGING PARTNER, DARDASHTI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT “It’s little surprise MOI is a winner. When you start with superior stock screening and combine it with good judgment, you put yourself in a great position to outperform.” —MARKO VUCEMILOVIC, FOUNDER AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, ALKAR GLOBAL “This is the best institutional-quality equity research to come along in a long time.” —PAVEL SAVOR, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF FINANCE, THE WHARTON SCHOOL “I am (as always) impressed with your work.” —MARK SPROULE, SCOPIA CAPITAL “Wonderful.” —TOM GAYNER, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, MARKEL CORP. “Keep up the great work, you are quickly becoming one of my must-read sources.” —CORY JANSSEN, FOUNDER, INVESTOPEDIA.COM
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Exclusive Interview with Ken Shubin Stein This month we bring you our interview with Dr. Kenneth Shubin Stein, CFA, founder of Spencer Capital Management. Shubin Stein is an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and a frequent speaker on value investing topics. In 2000, Shubin Stein founded Kenshu, the predecessor to the Spencer Capital Opportunity Fund, which was formed in 2003. Prior to founding Compo, Shubin Stein was a medical technology analyst for The Abernathy Group. Shubin Stein is a graduate of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine where he completed a five-year medical and research program with a focus on molecular genetics. He graduated with a B.A. degree from Columbia College in 1991. Shubin Stein serves on the board of HelpUSA and is the leader of HelpNYC.
The Manual of Ideas: You are a somewhat rare breed of value-invested generalist with advanced degree in the scientific field, namely medicine. How did you become interested in Buffet-style investing and at what point did you choose investment management, although over an alternative career in the medical field? Ken Shubin Stein: I became interested in Buffett-style investing at a pretty early age because I was fortunate enough to learn about Berkshire Hathaway while I was still in junior high school. After learning about Buffett’s success, I started studying Berkshire and trying to reverse engineer the company and how it had become so successful and had such a long track record of good investing decisions. As I continued my education and went through high school, college, and medical school, and part of residency, I always stayed very involved with investing. Since the end of junior high school, I’ve been managing my parents’ retirement accounts and other money for people in my family, so I’ve had a dual education and sort of career path of investing and medicine and science.
“…medical school and science are great places to learn about critical thinking, how to frame research questions and to look for flaws in research methodologies.”
Although I love both and have a passion for the medical field as well as for investing, I ultimately had to choose and obviously picked investing. Right around the time I was 30 or 31, I made the final switch. There was some overlap in my 20s because, like I said, I had a passion for both. The benefit that having medical training has given me is medical school and science are great places to learn about critical thinking, how to frame research questions and to look for flaws in research methodologies. All this is very helpful and plays into learning how to research a situation, understand what questions may not be being asked that are important, and learn how to frame the situation correctly and seek out data that can be helpful in coming to a conclusion. MOI: How do you describe your own brand of value investing? Shubin Stein: At Spencer we focus on concentrated value investing and, specifically, we look at special situations. For us, special situations run the gamut from companies that are in distress, in bankruptcy, are in turnaround situations, companies that are doing spin offs or debt recapitalization or large
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share repurchases or are experiencing significant short-term events that are impairing their earnings power but don’t impair the long-term intrinsic value of the company. MOI: It’s been said that all successful investing is value investing, with growth being a component of value. How important is that component for you? Shubin Stein: Our opinions about the growth prospects for a company are very important in determining its intrinsic value. Now oftentimes, we’re looking at companies that have uncertain growth prospects, but occasionally we find companies that actually have fantastic long-term growth prospects and mediocre short-term prospects, and these are often wonderful opportunities, so we do consider growth very much an addition to value, and we try to value things in multiple different ways. We look at it as an ongoing entity, on a liquidation basis, and under a number of scenarios with different implied growth rates. MOI: What are some of the lessons you have drawn from investments that may not have worked out as expected? What types of situations would you avoid, even though they may meet various quantitative value criteria? Shubin Stein: Well, having had a long investment career, and unfortunately, having made lots of investment mistakes, I’ve had lots of opportunities to learn from them. In fact, I’m writing a book about investment mistakes and how to do well in investing by trying to avoid these errors. It’s sort of a derivative of Munger’s idea of “invert, always invert,” or the story he tells of the mathematician who said, “Tell me where I’m going to die so I never go there.” One of the things we’ve learned is to avoid retailers with leverage. The retail business implicitly has leverage because of the lease obligations for the stores, and it can be, for certain types of retailers, a precarious business model. If the company sells fashion-sensitive clothing, and they miss a fashion cycle, which happens to everyone eventually, if the company does not have a strong balance sheet, they can quickly start losing money and the confidence of their vendors. The latter will then change the payment requirements and sometimes even convert them to cash on demand, which creates a significant and immediate need for capital.
“One of the things we’ve learned is to avoid retailers with leverage. The retail business implicitly has leverage because of the lease obligations for the stores, and it can be… a precarious business model.”
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There was a company called Gadzooks where we represented investors on the equity committee that had actually gone bankrupt because of a change in the terms of its vendors, not because it had debt. So, retailing is a business we generally try to avoid and, specifically, retailers with debt are companies we really try to avoid. MOI: Can you share one or two investments that best reflect your investment approach? Shubin Stein: One investment that we have done very well with over the years and still have a position in is Sears Holdings (SHLD). We’ve bought and sold Sears at different prices as the market falls in love with and hates the story — it really does reflect the ability to have a long-term perspective in a variant perception to the market. It’s a highly controversial company because it is run by an investor, Eddie Lampert, rather than a traditional corporate CEO. It also is a struggling retailer, and that’s well known. The retailer has very significant problems that may or may not be able to be fixed over time.
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When we buy Sears, we buy it when it is at a significant discount to liquidation value. We don’t value it as an ongoing entity, although it has a strong balance sheet and has zero risk of being forced into bankruptcy at this point. We value it on a liquidation basis purely to be conservative, not because we think it’ll actually happen. One of the things we really like about Sears is they have a diverse group of assets. They have brands that have significant value. They have a white goods home service business that has significant value. They have land that has significant value, and they have capital resources that allow the company to keep buying back stock whenever it’s below [Lampert’s] estimate of intrinsic value per share. Given that Eddie Lampert is a superb investor, we think that he is better equipped to make these decisions than most of the capital allocators in corporate America. MOI: In a speech at the Darden School of Business, you talked about the detrimental impact of biases on investment decision making. Could you eliminate the distinction between innate and acquired biases? What, if anything, can investors do to offset the impact of these biases?
“One of the things we really like about Sears [SHLD] is they have a diverse group of assets. They have brands… They have a white goods home service business… They have land… and they have capital resources…”
Shubin Stein: The difference between innate and acquired biases is that innate, cognitive biases are largely hardwired into all human beings and are the result of evolutionary forces. These biases help us make decisions quicker or allow us to have heuristics or mental shortcuts. They are often a result of a behavior that conferred an evolutionary advantage in pre-civilization times. Now, in modern civilization with capital markets and dangerous things in the capital market that have nothing to do with the dangerous things that were true in the wilds of the forest, these biases often hurt us. Acquired cognitive biases are the ones we pick up through life because of our various experiences. They can be positive or negative, but are unique to each of us based on our life experiences, and we at Spencer don’t spend a lot of time focusing on acquired cognitive biases because they’re not universal, versus the innate ones, which are universal. Some people who have done some great work on this include [Daniel] Kahneman and [Amos] Tverski as well as [Robert] Cialdini in the book Influence. Munger has spoken a great deal about it as well. We focus a lot on cognitive biases in terms of the decision making at the company level, what are the incentives that drive behavior, as well as looking at the markets in general. Often, there is nothing going on in the markets that is very helpful, looked at through the lens of a cognitive bias, but sometimes there is, and certainly the credit crisis gave us an example of that. MOI: What if anything can investors do to offset the impact of these biases? Shubin Stein: It’s impossible to completely immunize ourselves from the impact of cognitive biases. However, there are specific techniques that can help us understand them and mitigate their impact on us, and those techniques and a few examples of that are the following: Keeping an investment journal when investments are made and as the investments are monitored helps with the problems of memory and recall and the fact that we, in order to avert cognitive dissonance, tend to recall things that are consistent with our worldview and forget those that are inconsistent.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 11 of 175
Another tool or technique that is helpful to me is that if we own a position and I am concerned that I have commitment and consistency bias and I am anchored to the position because maybe I’ve spoken about it, maybe I’ve done a ton of work on it and taught the issue, taught the investment as a case study or I’ve spoken to investors about it, if I’m concerned about these things, a technique I use is to sell a part of our position. Then I'll wait and look at the facts again and consider the case, and I’ll see if my judgment is different, having sold some of it. Do I feel like I really want to buy it back — that’s a good sign — or do I not feel like I really want to buy it back, or I may have been relieved that I got rid of some of it in the portfolio, and that’s a sign that maybe my earlier analysis was colored by commitment and consistency bias or anchoring. I owned it, and, therefore, I valued it more highly than I should have. MOI: What is the single biggest mistake that keeps investors from reaching their goals? Shubin Stein: That’s an excellent question, but I don’t know that there’s a single biggest mistake, so I’ll try to give a couple that I think are common.
“I think all investors can benefit by keeping an investment journal and using checklists in doing their research. These two very simple tools not only will help keep people focused on their goals and sticking with their strategy, but they will also help them avoid mistakes out of impulse.”
I think all investors can benefit by keeping an investment journal and using checklists in doing their research. These two very simple tools not only will help keep people focused on their goals and sticking with their strategy, but they will also help them avoid mistakes out of impulse. They will also protect investors from some of the cognitive biases to which we are all subject. In the checklist, it’s possible to put not only the steps necessary to do the research as well as lists of mistakes or problems that occurred in the past and should be avoided, but also a list of cognitive biases. This allows the investor to check with him or herself and to think about whether there are forces at play that may be activating some cognitive biases, and if so, to consider those. MOI: In a Forbes interview, you described the investment business as a creed of echoing the Buffet and Munger view that all knowledge is cumulative. Of course, investors don't necessarily get better over time. Investor Li Lu recently admonished students in the speech at Columbia to keep your innocence. He cited the tendency of professional investors to lower their position sizes over time, perhaps in response to client demands or jarring past experience. He caricatured the language of professional investors who often talk in bases points in order to make their positions appear substantially and that they barely move the needle. While recognizing that more experience is generally better than less, what aspects of innocence should aspiring investment managers seek to preserve? Shubin Stein: Well, Li Lu is a superb investor, and I agree that over time the business moves people towards keeping their jobs rather than shooting for investment excellence. If one’s goal is to keep their job, then I think that will lead to behavior that is very different from the goal of having excellent lifetime investment performance. I do agree with him that investors need to keep focused on their true goal. If you’re an individual, certainly your goal is investment excellence since you’re not running a business, and if you’re a professional, I think it’s worth thinking about why you’re in business and what goals you’re trying to accomplish.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 12 of 175
So the question is, while recognizing that more experience is generally better than less, what aspects of innocence should aspiring investment managers seek to preserve? I think it’s helpful for all of us who are professional managers to periodically think about our true goals in the business, and what we are doing in order to achieve those goals. Are we constantly learning? Are we improving or are we being pushed by experience and fear into behavior that will put us in the middle of the pack versus are we continually trying to push the needle and be excellent and continue to learn, even if that has some near-term costs? I’m reminded of the many value investors in the late 1990s during the tech bubble. When that was occurring, a lot of us felt this tremendous pressure because we were investing in solid, profitable companies at extremely good prices, but the market was valuing tech companies with no earnings at far higher prices. Lots of managers were faced with a choice: start buying things that broke the discipline of value investing because that was what investors clamored for — or lose your investors. Some managers changed their style, bought tech companies during the bubble and ended up maintaining their investors and losing capital. Some did the reverse —we didn’t buy tech companies, and we ended up losing some our clients, and I think that’s a choice that many of us are faced with during our careers.
“…while recognizing that more experience is generally better than less, what aspects of innocence should aspiring investment managers seek to preserve? Are we improving or are we being pushed by experience and fear into behavior that will put us in the middle of the pack…?”
MOI: What books have you read in recent years that have stood out as valuable additions to your investment library? Shubin Stein: There are a couple of extremely good books I’ve read recently, and I’ll list the authors because some of them have multiple books. Whitney Tilson and Glen Tongue’s book about the stock market crash and how to profit from it was excellent, both because it gave superb ideas and it highlighted that even after something starts to unfold, there’s the opportunity to do work, develop a variant perception, and profit from it. Mohnish Pabrai books are excellent investment books for both amateurs and professionals. James Montier’s books are superb for anybody interested in behavioral finance, which, in my opinion, should be all of us in this business. The Big Short by Michael Lewis and Fooling Some of the People All of the Time by David Einhorn are must reads for everybody, both because they highlight a lot about what is important in investing and they give us an insight into how the capital markets and the government in the United States work. MOI: Ken, thank you very much.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 13 of 175
50+ Portfolios With Signal Value™ Revealing the Top Ideas of Top Investors “Signal value” as opposed to “noise.” We present the holdings of some of the world’s top investors. We look for investors who have amassed impressive track records over long periods of time. We choose these investors carefully to avoid the noise inherent in most 13F-HR filings. MOI Signal Rank answers the question, “What are this investor’s top ten ideas right now?” Rather than simply presenting each investor’s largest holdings as of the recently filed quarter end, the MOI’s proprietary methodology ranks the companies in each investor’s portfolio based on the investor’s current level of conviction in each holding, as judged by the MOI. Our proprietary methodology takes into account a number of variables, including the size of a position in an investor’s portfolio, the size of a position relative to the market value of the corresponding company, the most recent quarterly change in the number of shares owned, and the change in the stock price of a position since the most recent quarterly filing date. For example, an investor might have the most conviction in a position that is only the tenth-largest position in such investor’s portfolio. This might be the case if an investor invests in a small company, resulting in a holding that is simply too small to rank highly based on size alone. On the other hand, such a holding might represent 19.9% of the shares outstanding of the subject company, suggesting a high level of conviction. Our estimate of the conviction level would rise further if the subject company has a 20% poison-pill threshold, thereby suggesting that the investor has bought as much of the subject company as is practically feasible.
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Top investors included in this section: • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Lee Ainsle, Maverick Chuck Akre, Akre Capital Zeke Ashton, Centaur Capital Brian Bares, Bares Capital Bruce Berkowitz, Fairholme Richard Breeden, Breeden Capital Tom Brown, Second Curve Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Francis Chou, Chou Associates Chase Coleman, Tiger Global James Crichton, Scout Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg, Leucadia Boykin Curry, Eagle David Einhorn, Greenlight Phil Falcone, Harbinger Alan Fournier, Pennant Glenn Fuhrman and John Phelan, MSD Capital Jeffrey Gates, Gates Capital Tom Gayner, Markel Gayner Kian Ghazi, Hawkshaw Ed Gilhuly and Scott Stuart, Sageview Glenn Greenberg, Brave Warrior John Griffin, Blue Ridge Howard Guberman, Gruss Andreas Halvorsen, Viking Global Mason Hawkins, Southeastern Lance Helfert and Paul Orfalea, West Coast Chris Hohn, Children’s Investment Fund Carl Icahn, Icahn Rehan Jaffer, H Partners Seth Klarman, Baupost John Kleinheinz, Kleinheinz Capital Eddie Lampert, ESL Investments Dan Loeb, Third Point Steve Mandel, Lone Pine Sandy Nairn, Edinburgh Partners Mohnish Pabrai, Pabrai Funds John Paulson, Paulson & Co. Boone Pickens, BP Capital Mark Rachesky, MHR Lisa Rapuano, Lane Five Larry Robbins, Glenview Bob Rodriguez and Steven Romick, First Pacific Wilbur Ross, WL Ross Chris Shumway, Shumway Capital David Tepper, Appaloosa Peter Thiel, Clarium Prem Watsa, Fairfax Wally Weitz, Weitz Funds David Winters, Wintergreen
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August 27, 2010 – Page 14 of 175
Akre Capital (Chuck Akre) Chuck Akre has been in the investment business since 1968. While sometimes viewed as a small cap growth manager, Akre follows a value strategy that focuses on returns on equity, management quality and cash flow-oriented valuation analysis.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Akre Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Dollar Tree / DLTR Markel / MKL Enstar Group / ESGR Lamar Advertising / LAMR Ross Stores / ROST Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A TradeStation / TRAD First Fin. Holdings / FFCH Greenlight Re / GLRE Fox Chase Bancorp / FXCB
Market Value ($mn) 5,665 3,188 973 2,610 6,082 192,655 234 166 833 136
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 44.62 7% 326.27 -4% 70.35 6% 28.28 15% 49.81 -7% 116,700 -3% 5.77 -15% 10.06 -12% 22.84 -9% 9.35 -2%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 611 >100% 115 7% 396 20% 1,138 29% 429 95% 0 69% 300 >100% 20 new 27 new 100 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 8% 1% 11% 3% 8% 1% 9% <1% 6% <1% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 15x 13x 22x 19x 7x 6x n/m n/m 12x 11x 19x 18x 20x 17x n/m 35x n/a n/a 43x 24x
Price/ Tang. Book 4.5x 1.4x 1.2x n/m 4.8x 2.1x 1.4x .6x 1.2x .7x
Top Holdings of Akre Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 19,026 3,188 2,610 973 5,665 6,636 6,082 8,944 192,655 3,483
Company / Ticker American Tower / AMT Markel / MKL Lamar Advertising / LAMR Enstar Group / ESGR Dollar Tree / DLTR O'Reilly Automotive / ORLY Ross Stores / ROST Hartford Financial / HIG Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A FactSet Research / FDS
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 47.43 7% 326.27 -4% 28.28 15% 70.35 6% 44.62 7% 47.82 1% 49.81 -7% 20.13 -9% 116,700 -3% 75.19 12%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 14% 1% 11% 1% 9% 3% 8% <1% 8% <1% 6% <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 4% <1% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 55x 43x 22x 19x n/m n/m 7x 6x 15x 13x 17x 15x 12x 11x 9x 5x 19x 18x 24x 22x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 1.4x n/m 1.2x 4.5x 3.1x 4.8x .5x 2.1x >9.9x
Sold Out Positions
Becton Dickinson / BDX Ensco / ESV First Fin. Holdings / FFCH
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1,070 -1% 115 7% 1,138 29% 396 20% 611 >100% 473 -1% 429 95% 808 -1% 0 69% 164 -27%
Fox Chase Bancorp / FXCB Greenlight Re / GLRE W.R. Berkley / WRB
*
Portfolio size
CarMax / KMX Entertainment Prop. / EPR
Sector Weightings
Technology Other 2% 4%
$351 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
75%
Median market value
$3.8 billion
Average market value
$20 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tangible book
1.7x
*
Financial 41%
Services 53%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 15 of 175
Appaloosa (David Tepper) Tepper heads Appaloosa Management, which he founded in 1993 after leaving Goldman Sachs, where he had been the head trader on Goldman’s high-yield desk. Tepper’s specialty is in distressed investments and special situations. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Appaloosa
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 128,413 126 107,393 96,360 40,896 8,854 1,503 185 586 3,051
Company / Ticker Pfizer / PFE MPG Office Trust / MPG Merck / MRK Banco Santander / STD Royal Bank Scotland / RBS Macy's / M Con-way / CNW SuperMedia / SPMD Strategic Hotels / BEE Continental Airlines / CAL
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 15.92 12% 2.63 -10% 34.44 -2% 11.71 12% 14.11 17% 20.97 17% 27.61 -8% 11.94 -35% 3.87 -12% 21.74 -1%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 11,344 76% 4,047 new 3,843 >100% 754 new 12,035 7% 4,838 new 633 35% 495 -1% 1,238 17% 644 22%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 7% 8% <1% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1% 6% 1% 4% 1% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 7x 7x 19x 10x 10x 9x 9x 7x n/a n/a 11x 10x 30x 14x 2x 7x n/m n/m 7x 5x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m n/m >9.9x 2.1x .4x >9.9x 3.3x n/m 1.8x n/m
Top Holdings of Appaloosa – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 129,136 108,651 128,742 23,467 128,413 40,896 9,206 107,393 8,944 11,998
Company / Ticker Bank of America / BAC Citigroup / C Wells Fargo / WFC AIG / AIG Pfizer / PFE Royal Bank Scotland / RBS Fifth Third Bancorp / FITB Merck / MRK Hartford Financial / HIG SunTrust Banks / STI
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 12.87 -10% 3.75 0% 24.60 -4% 35.17 2% 15.92 12% 14.11 17% 11.56 -6% 34.44 -2% 20.13 -9% 24.00 3%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 27,350 -10% 57,783 -7% 7,901 -12% 5,467 -27% 11,344 76% 12,035 7% 12,696 -25% 3,843 >100% 6,181 -6% 4,739 -14%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 13% <1% 8% <1% 7% <1% 7% <1% 7% <1% 6% 2% 5% <1% 5% 1% 5% <1% 4%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Banco Santander / STD CF Industries / CF Macy's / M MPG Office Trust / MPG
American Commercial / ACLI MPG Office Trust / MPG NRG Energy / NRG Office Depot / ODP Valassis Comms / VCI XL Capital / XL
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 14x 8x 10x 8x 12x 9x 5x 8x 7x 7x n/a n/a 31x 12x 10x 9x 9x 5x n/m 29x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.2x .9x 2.2x >9.9x n/m .4x 1.3x >9.9x .5x 1.2x
*
$2.7 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Other 17%
68%
Median market value
$3.5 billion
Average market value
$27 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
11x
Median P/E (next FY)
9x
Median P / tangible book
Services 7% Health Care 15%
1.5x
Financial 62%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 16 of 175
Bares Capital (Brian Bares) Brian Bares started his investment firm, Bares Capital Management, in 2000, focusing initially on micro-cap public companies. The firm launched a small-cap institutional strategy in 2001 and now manages assets in two value-oriented strategies. Bares Capital Management is quite unique in the institutional asset management world, as it has adhered to a disciplined business strategy, limiting the growth of assets under management to benefit investment performance. Both of Bares’s institutional strategies have beaten their respective benchmark indices by wide margins since inception. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Bares Capital Management
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 248 295 171 446 154 44 92 1,202 158 30
Company / Ticker Interactive Intell. / ININ International Assets / IAAC Hallmark Financial / HALL Stratasys / SSYS Winmark / WINA Tandy Leather / TLF Utah Medical / UTMD HEICO Corp. / HEI Stamps.com / STMP BIDZ.com / BIDZ
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 14.15 -14% 16.74 5% 8.51 -14% 21.67 -12% 30.72 -8% 4.27 3% 25.33 2% 36.51 2% 11.09 8% 1.54 -1%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,491 0% 2,269 15% 2,033 0% 857 0% 845 0% 1,643 0% 330 0% 103 >100% 1,026 0% 1,483 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 14% 14% 13% 15% 10% 7% 4% 7% 17% 10% 16% 3% 9% 3% <1% 1% 7% 4% 8% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 15x 13x 19x 19x 15x 9x 39x 28x 19x 17x n/a n/a n/a n/a 25x 21x 15x 14x n/m 15x
Price/ Tang. Book 3.2x 1.3x 1.1x 3.4x 9.2x 1.7x 2.9x >9.9x 2.4x .9x
Top Holdings of Bares Capital Management – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 295 248 154 446 171 158 173 246 92 44
Company / Ticker International Assets / IAAC Interactive Intell. / ININ Winmark / WINA Stratasys / SSYS Hallmark Financial / HALL Stamps.com / STMP American Dental / ADPI Rentrak / RENT Utah Medical / UTMD Tandy Leather / TLF
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 16.74 5% 14.15 -14% 30.72 -8% 21.67 -12% 8.51 -14% 11.09 8% 10.96 -9% 22.57 -7% 25.33 2% 4.27 3%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,269 15% 2,491 0% 845 0% 857 0% 2,033 0% 1,026 0% 905 -10% 437 -11% 330 0% 1,643 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 13% 15% 14% 14% 17% 10% 4% 7% 10% 7% 7% 4% 6% 4% 4% 4% 9% 3% 16% 3%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Colfax / CFX
None
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
72%
Median market value
$1.6 billion
Average market value
$18 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tangible book
2.1x
*
Financial 37% Services 20%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Price/ Tang. Book 1.3x 3.2x 9.2x 3.4x 1.1x 2.4x n/m 6.4x 2.9x 1.7x
Other 18%
$253 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 19x 19x 15x 13x 19x 17x 39x 28x 15x 9x 15x 14x 10x 10x 29x 17x n/a n/a n/a n/a
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Technology 25%
August 27, 2010 – Page 17 of 175
Baupost (Seth Klarman) Seth Klarman, founder and president of The Baupost Group, is the author of Margin of Safety and one of the most widely respected value-oriented investors. From inception in February 1983 through December 2008, The Baupost Group has delivered an annual compounded return of approximately 20%. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Baupost
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 636 1,396 1,031 102 320 311 883 659 1,616 292
Company / Ticker Enzon Pharma / ENZN ViaSat / VSAT Theravance / THRX Multimedia Games / MGAM Ituran Location / ITRN Alliance One / AOI Energy XXI / EXXI Solar Capital / SLRC CapitalSource / CSE Syneron Medical / ELOS
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 10.50 -1% 34.40 6% 14.00 11% 3.71 -18% 13.65 -9% 3.48 -2% 17.44 11% 19.87 3% 5.00 5% 8.20 -20%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 10,176 11% 9,972 15% 13,000 0% 2,600 0% 1,721 0% 8,800 0% 265 new 2,011 0% 20,278 0% 1,500 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 17% 7% 25% 24% 18% 13% 9% <1% 7% 2% 10% 2% <1% <1% 6% 3% 6% 7% 4% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 62x n/m 20x 20x n/m n/m n/m 25x 14x 13x 5x n/a 65x 29x 9x 8x n/m 15x n/m n/m
Price/ Tang. Book 1.7x 2.4x n/m 1.5x 2.6x .9x 2.1x .9x .9x 1.3x
Top Holdings of Baupost – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 1,396 33,368 1,031 913 2,614 636 1,616 1,225 659 311
Company / Ticker ViaSat / VSAT News Corp. / NWSA Theravance / THRX BreitBurn Energy / BBEP Domtar / UFS Enzon Pharma / ENZN CapitalSource / CSE ADC Telecom / ADCT Solar Capital / SLRC Alliance One / AOI
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 34.40 6% 12.73 6% 14.00 11% 17.13 15% 61.00 24% 10.50 -1% 5.00 5% 12.62 70% 19.87 3% 3.48 -2%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 9,972 15% 19,050 -18% 13,000 0% 8,291 -2% 1,825 -32% 10,176 11% 20,278 0% 5,662 13% 2,011 0% 8,800 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 25% 24% <1% 17% 18% 13% 16% 10% 4% 8% 17% 7% 6% 7% 6% 5% 6% 3% 10% 2%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Energy XXI / EXXI
DIRECTV / DTV
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 20x 20x 12x 10x n/m n/m 14x 16x 7x 10x 62x n/m n/m 15x 24x 17x 9x 8x 5x n/a
Price/ Tang. Book 2.4x >9.9x n/m .7x 1.0x 1.7x .9x 3.6x .9x .9x
*, **
$1.5 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
94%
Median market value
$972 million
Average market value
$5.0 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tangible book
1.3x
Other 30%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services 21%
Technology 29%
Health Care 21%
**
A large portion of assets managed by Seth Klarman may be invested in nonequity and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 18 of 175
Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) Warren Buffett has built an unparalleled investment track record over several decades, becoming widely regarded as the best investor of all time. Buffett has embraced a long term-oriented investment approach with an emphasis on investing in companies with durable competitive advantage, high returns on capital employed, and shareholder-friendly management.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Berkshire Hathaway
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 128,742 3,187 35 2,321 1,228 49,043 5,087 127,713 161,796 41,679
Company / Ticker Wells Fargo / WFC Washington Post / WPO Comdisco / CDCO Wesco Financial / WSC USG / USG American Express / AXP Moody's / MCO Coca-Cola / KO Johnson & Johnson / JNJ U.S. Bancorp / USB
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 24.60 -4% 347.68 -15% 8.79 -2% 326.00 1% 12.34 2% 40.76 3% 21.71 9% 55.30 10% 58.74 -1% 21.74 -3%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 325,791 2% 1,728 0% 1,538 0% 5,703 0% 17,072 0% 151,611 0% 30,784 0% 200,000 0% 41,320 73% 69,039 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 6% 17% 19% 1% 38% <1% 80% 4% 17% <1% 13% 13% 13% 1% 9% 23% 2% 5% 4% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 12x 9x 13x 11x n/a n/a 30x 27x n/m n/m 12x 11x 12x 11x 16x 15x 12x 12x 13x 10x
Price/ Tang. Book 2.2x 3.2x .8x 1.0x 1.9x 3.4x n/m 9.5x 7.4x 2.9x
Top Holdings of Berkshire Hathaway – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 127,713 128,742 49,043 170,252 50,752 161,796 186,299 2,321 82,285 41,679
Company / Ticker Coca-Cola / KO Wells Fargo / WFC American Express / AXP Procter & Gamble / PG Kraft Foods / KFT Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Wal-Mart / WMT Wesco Financial / WSC ConocoPhillips / COP U.S. Bancorp / USB
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 55.30 10% 24.60 -4% 40.76 3% 59.98 0% 29.10 4% 58.74 -1% 50.22 4% 326.00 1% 53.89 10% 21.74 -3%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from ('000) Mar. 31 200,000 0% 325,791 2% 151,611 0% 78,071 -1% 105,215 -1% 41,320 73% 39,037 0% 5,703 0% 29,110 -15% 69,039 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 9% 23% 6% 17% 13% 13% 3% 10% 6% 6% 2% 5% 1% 4% 80% 4% 2% 3% 4% 3%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Fiserv / FISV
None
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings $48 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
$29 billion
Average market value
$58 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
2.3x
Price/ Tang. Book 9.5x 2.2x 3.4x n/m n/m 7.4x 3.8x 1.0x 1.4x 2.9x
*, **
Other 12%
88%
Median market value
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 15x 12x 9x 12x 11x 15x 14x 14x 13x 12x 12x 13x 11x 30x 27x 9x 8x 13x 10x
Services 10%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Consumer Non-Cyclical 40%
Financial 38%
**
A large portion of Berkshire’s asset value may be attributed to holdings that are not publicly traded and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 19 of 175
Blue Ridge (John Griffin) John Griffin was a merchant banking analyst at Morgan Stanley before joining Robertson’s Tiger Management in 1987. Griffin became president of Tiger in 1993 but chose to start long/short partnership Blue Ridge in 1996. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Blue Ridge
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 228,062 147,266 6,187 10,765 198 5,665 2,973 2,196 128,742 1,529
Company / Ticker Apple / AAPL JPMorgan Chase / JPM Gold Miners ETF / GDX Discovery Comms / DISCA Xinyuan Real Estate / XIN Dollar Tree / DLTR Genpact / G J. Crew / JCG Wells Fargo / WFC Primerica / PRI
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 249.64 -1% 37.14 1% 51.28 -1% 37.82 6% 2.61 10% 44.62 7% 13.55 -13% 34.41 -7% 24.60 -4% 21.03 n/m
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1,897 36% 11,933 24% 5,148 0% 7,148 0% 13,953 0% 3,795 43% 2,040 new 1,490 new 1,275 new 447 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 8% <1% 7% 4% 4% 3% 4% 18% <1% 3% 3% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 17x 14x 10x 8x n/a n/a 21x 18x 4x 3x 15x 13x n/a n/a 14x 13x 12x 9x 11x 10x
Price/ Tang. Book 5.4x 1.5x 1.1x n/m .4x 4.5x 4.3x 5.1x 2.2x 1.2x
Top Holdings of Blue Ridge – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 228,062 147,266 57,214 10,765 6,187 11,786 11,069 77,782 10,522 5,665
Company / Ticker Apple / AAPL JPMorgan Chase / JPM Amazon.com / AMZN Discovery Comms / DISCA Gold Miners ETF / GDX Crown Castle / CCI Citrix Systems / CTXS McDonald's / MCD Western Union / WU Dollar Tree / DLTR
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 249.64 -1% 37.14 1% 127.76 17% 37.82 6% 51.28 -1% 40.60 9% 59.21 40% 73.08 11% 15.94 7% 44.62 7%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 8% <1% 7% <1% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4% 2% 4% <1% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 17x 14x 10x 8x 49x 36x 21x 18x n/a n/a n/m >99x 31x 27x 16x 15x 12x 11x 15x 13x
Price/ Tang. Book 5.4x 1.5x >9.9x n/m 1.1x n/m 9.1x 7.3x n/m 4.5x
Sold Out Positions
Ensco / ESV Genpact / G Goldman Sachs / GS Golub Capital / GBDC J. Crew / JCG Kroger / KR Liberty Global / LBTYA
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1,897 36% 11,933 24% 2,123 -2% 7,148 0% 5,148 0% 6,384 -6% 3,815 59% 2,890 -25% 12,275 0% 3,795 43%
MGIC Investment / MTG Pfizer / PFE PMI Group / PMI Primerica / PRI Starwood Hotels / HOT Theravance / THRX Wells Fargo / WFC
*
Portfolio size
American Capital / ACAS Apollo Group / APOL Boston Scientific / BSX Green Mtn Coffee / GMCR Iberiabank / IBKC iShares Silver Trust / SLV Netflix / NFLX
Sector Weightings
Other 11%
$6.0 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
*
46%
Median market value
$7.3 billion
Average market value
$31 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tangible book
2.1x
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Financial 37%
Technology 20%
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Services 33%
August 27, 2010 – Page 20 of 175
BP Capital (Boone Pickens) Pickens, born in 1928, was a prominent corporate raider during the 1980s. He founded energy fund BP Capital in 1997. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of BP Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 16,828 48,631 24,103 27,031 3,021 13,335 1,738 11,667 20,393 1,995
Company / Ticker Hess / HES Suncor Energy / SU Anadarko Petroleum / APC Devon Energy / DVN Transatlantic / TRH Chesapeake Energy / CHK SandRidge Energy / SD Southwestern Energy / SWN EnCana / ECA Quicksilver Resource / KWK
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 51.24 2% 31.13 6% 48.70 35% 62.14 2% 47.39 -1% 20.38 -3% 4.29 -26% 33.71 -13% 27.70 -9% 11.71 6%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 284 >100% 553 48% 314 >100% 190 new 2,000 0% 590 >100% 1,889 5% 190 new 190 new 600 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 5% <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 4% 3% 33% <1% 4% <1% 3% <1% 2% <1% 2% <1% 2%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 11x 9x 19x 13x 25x 20x 10x 10x 9x 7x 7x 7x 11x 13x 18x 15x 21x 20x 16x 19x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.3x 1.6x 1.6x 2.5x .7x 1.1x n/m 4.4x 1.3x 2.6x
Top Holdings of BP Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Transatlantic / TRH Suncor Energy / SU Anadarko Petroleum / APC Hess / HES McMoRan Exploration / MMR Weatherford / WFT Chesapeake Energy / CHK Devon Energy / DVN Smith International / SII SandRidge Energy / SD
Market Value ($mn) 3,021 48,631 24,103 16,828 1,082 11,216 13,335 27,031 9,754 1,738
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 47.39 -1% 31.13 6% 48.70 35% 51.24 2% 11.63 5% 15.19 16% 20.38 -3% 62.14 2% 39.24 4% 4.29 -26%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 3% 33% <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 5% 1% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4% <1% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 9x 7x 19x 13x 25x 20x 11x 9x n/m n/m 27x 13x 7x 7x 10x 10x 35x 22x 11x 13x
Price/ Tang. Book .7x 1.6x 1.6x 1.3x 5.7x 2.4x 1.1x 2.5x 5.8x n/m
Sold Out Positions
Apache / APA Chevron / CVX Devon Energy / DVN EnCana / ECA Fluor / FLR Massey Energy / MEE
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,000 0% 553 48% 314 >100% 284 >100% 1,120 -6% 854 -6% 590 >100% 190 new 295 -5% 1,889 5%
Murphy Oil / MUR Oceaneering / OII Plains Exploration / PXP Quicksilver Resource / KWK Southwestern Energy / SWN
*
Portfolio size
Transocean / RIG
Sector Weightings
*, **
$291 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Capital Goods 2%
73%
Median market value
$11 billion
Average market value
$20 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tangible book
1.9x
Financial 33%
Energy 66%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**
A large portion of assets managed by Boone Pickens may be invested outside of BP Capital and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 21 of 175
Brave Warrior (Glenn Greenberg) Brave Warrior, formerly called Chieftain Capital Management, was founded in 1984 by Glenn Greenberg and John Shapiro. The firm runs a concentrated portfolio focused on companies with high returns on capital and sustainable competitive advantage. Brave Warrior’s long-term performance record is believed to feature mid teens annualized investment returns.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Brave Warrior
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 147,249 27,005 2,555 7,694 3,880 58,890 298 100 227 129,136
Company / Ticker Google / GOOG MasterCard / MA Broadridge Financial / BR Fiserv / FISV Arch Capital / ACGL Visa / V Star Gas Partners / SGU Nicholas Financial / NICK Freddie Mac / FMCC Bank of America / BAC
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 462.02 4% 206.37 3% 20.16 6% 51.26 12% 78.11 5% 70.10 -1% 4.35 0% 8.50 3% 0.35 -15% 12.87 -10%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 252 88% 231 new 2,361 new 1,079 new 731 68% 359 new 154 new 29 new 72 0% 15 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 12% <1% 5% 2% 5% <1% 6% 1% 6% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 17x 15x 15x 13x 13x 11x 13x 12x 9x 9x 18x 15x n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 14x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book 4.3x 7.8x >9.9x n/m 1.0x >9.9x 6.8x 1.0x .0x 1.2x
Top Holdings of Brave Warrior – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 8,648 49,985 147,249 7,788 41,679 26,535 3,880 7,694 27,005 2,555
Company / Ticker Ryanair / RYAAY Comcast / CMCSA Google / GOOG Lab Corp. of America / LH U.S. Bancorp / USB Lockheed Martin / LMT Arch Capital / ACGL Fiserv / FISV MasterCard / MA Broadridge Financial / BR
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 29.14 8% 17.81 3% 462.02 4% 75.76 1% 21.74 -3% 73.20 -2% 78.11 5% 51.26 12% 206.37 3% 20.16 6%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 2% 14% <1% 14% <1% 12% 1% 12% <1% 11% <1% 10% 1% 6% <1% 6% <1% 5% 2% 5%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 17x 13x 14x 12x 17x 15x 14x 12x 13x 10x 10x 9x 9x 9x 13x 12x 15x 13x 13x 11x
Price/ Tang. Book 2.2x n/m 4.3x n/m 2.9x n/m 1.0x n/m 7.8x >9.9x
Sold Out Positions
Broadridge Financial / BR Fiserv / FISV MasterCard / MA
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 4,632 -2% 7,513 -8% 252 88% 1,532 -1% 5,126 -1% 1,323 -17% 731 68% 1,079 new 231 new 2,361 new
Nicholas Financial / NICK Star Gas Partners / SGU Visa / V
*
Portfolio size
Precision Castparts / PCP RenaissanceRe / RNR Varian Medical / VAR
Sector Weightings
*
$989 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
93%
Median market value
$7.7 billion
Average market value
$25 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
1.7x
Other 36%
Technology 20%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Financial 25%
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Services 19%
August 27, 2010 – Page 22 of 175
Breeden Capital (Richard Breeden) Richard C. Breeden, born in 1949, is a former Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Breeden founded Breeden Capital Management in 2006. The fund applies a concentrated, activist investment approach.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Breeden Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 9,955 4,355 1,542 1,251 1,753 58 5,909 1,797 864 3,402
Company / Ticker Aon Corp. / AON H&R Block / HRB EMCOR Group / EME Hillenbrand / HI Steris / STE Zale / ZLC SAIC / SAI Bally Technologies / BYI ValueClick / VCLK Dun & Bradstreet / DNB
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 36.91 -1% 13.47 -14% 23.24 0% 20.09 -6% 29.42 -5% 1.79 13% 15.55 -7% 33.04 2% 10.56 -1% 67.97 1%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,561 72% 13,292 0% 1,707 new 5,069 0% 5,067 0% 9,071 0% 852 new 2,726 11% 280 new 1,335 3%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 9% 4% 16% 3% 4% 8% 9% 9% 14% 28% 1% <1% 1% 5% 8% <1% <1% 3% 8%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 11x 11x 9x 7x 13x 11x 11x 10x 13x 12x n/m n/m 11x 10x 15x 13x 17x 15x 12x 11x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m >9.9x 3.5x n/m 4.5x .3x >9.9x 5.2x 3.8x n/m
Top Holdings of Breeden Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 4,355 1,753 3,844 1,251 9,955 3,402 1,797 2,232 16,367 1,542
Company / Ticker H&R Block / HRB Steris / STE Helmerich & Payne / HP Hillenbrand / HI Aon Corp. / AON Dun & Bradstreet / DNB Bally Technologies / BYI Burger King / BKC Raytheon / RTN EMCOR Group / EME
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 13.47 -14% 29.42 -5% 36.33 -1% 20.09 -6% 36.91 -1% 67.97 1% 33.04 2% 16.45 -2% 43.75 -10% 23.24 0%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 4% 16% 9% 14% 3% 12% 8% 9% <1% 9% 3% 8% 5% 8% 3% 6% <1% 6% 3% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 9x 7x 13x 12x 15x 13x 11x 10x 11x 11x 12x 11x 15x 13x 12x 11x 10x 8x 13x 11x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x 4.5x 1.4x n/m n/m n/m 5.2x >9.9x n/m 3.5x
Sold Out Positions
EMCOR Group / EME Fidelity National / FNF NASDAQ OMX / NDAQ
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 13,292 0% 5,067 0% 3,617 -2% 5,069 0% 2,561 72% 1,335 3% 2,726 11% 4,356 0% 1,447 -6% 1,707 new
SAIC / SAI ValueClick / VCLK
*
Portfolio size
Hill-Rom Holdings / HRC Pharma Product / PPDI
Sector Weightings
*
$1.1 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
92%
Median market value
$3.1 billion
Average market value
$3.9 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
11x
Median P / tangible book
3.5x
*
Other 32%
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Health Care 14%
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Services 35%
Financial 19%
August 27, 2010 – Page 23 of 175
Centaur Capital (Zeke Ashton) Zeke Ashton is founder and managing partner of Centaur Capital, a Dallas-based investment firm. Centaur Capital serves as advisor to the Centaur family of private partnerships using a value-oriented long/short equity strategy. Centaur is also the sub-advisor to the Tilson Dividend Fund, a mutual fund utilizing an income-oriented value investing strategy. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Centaur Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1
Market Value ($mn) 2,555 2,828 124,220 2,584 307 2,681 7,788 410 221 331
Company / Ticker Broadridge Financial / BR GameStop / GME Vodafone / VOD DreamWorks / DWA MVC Capital / MVC American Eagle / AEO Lab Corp. of America / LH Himax Tech / HIMX Terra Nova Royalty / TTT Adaptec / ADPT
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 20.16 6% 18.81 0% 23.55 14% 30.67 7% 12.62 -2% 13.05 11% 75.76 1% 2.32 -20% 7.31 -12% 2.75 -5%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 200 new 225 >100% 170 42% 75 new 313 0% 195 new 60 0% 940 new 257 >100% 268 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 8% <1% 9% <1% 8% <1% 5% 1% 8% <1% 5% <1% 9% <1% 4% <1% 4% <1% 1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 13x 11x 7x 7x 9x 9x 17x 14x 15x 19x 13x 12x 14x 12x 13x 9x n/m 41x n/m n/a
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x 3.9x 5.0x 2.4x .7x 1.8x n/m 1.1x 1.1x .8x
Excludes LEAPs and other option positions.
Top Holdings of Centaur Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1
1
Market Value ($mn) 7,788 2,828 2,555 124,220 307 16,879 2,681 327 3,872 2,584
Company / Ticker Lab Corp. of America / LH GameStop / GME Broadridge Financial / BR Vodafone / VOD MVC Capital / MVC Northrop Grumman / NOC American Eagle / AEO Capital Southwest / CSWC PetSmart / PETM DreamWorks / DWA
1
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 75.76 1% 18.81 0% 20.16 6% 23.55 14% 12.62 -2% 57.37 5% 13.05 11% 87.37 -1% 32.72 8% 30.67 7%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 60 0% 225 >100% 200 new 170 42% 313 0% 67 9% 195 new 27 0% 71 -23% 75 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 9% <1% 9% <1% 8% <1% 8% 1% 8% <1% 8% <1% 5% <1% 5% <1% 5% <1% 5%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 14x 12x 7x 7x 13x 11x 9x 9x 15x 19x 8x 9x 13x 12x n/a n/a 17x 15x 17x 14x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 3.9x >9.9x 5.0x .7x n/m 1.8x .7x 3.4x 2.4x
Excludes LEAPs and other option positions.
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Adaptec / ADPT American Eagle / AEO Broadridge Financial / BR DreamWorks / DWA Himax Tech / HIMX
Portfolio Metrics
Madison Sq. Garden / MSG
*
Portfolio size
Alleghany / Y AllianceBernstein / AB Annaly Capital / NLY Chipotle / CMG Duoyuan Printing / DYP
Sector Weightings $49 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
$2.6 billion
Average market value
$19 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tangible book
1.9x
*
Technology 12%
Based on information provided to The Manual of Ideas. Excludes portfolio cash, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
*
Other 19%
70%
Median market value
Exxon Mobil / XOM Fairfax Financial / FRFHF Fidelity National / FNF MIND C.T.I. / MNDO
Services 51%
Financial 18%
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August 27, 2010 – Page 24 of 175
Children’s Investment (Chris Hohn) Chris Hohn is the founder of London-based The Children’s Investment Fund Management. TCI runs a concentrated portfolio that has historically been heavily weighted in industrials. Hohn has acquired a reputation as an aggressive shareholder activist, most notably forcing the resignation of the CEO of Deutsche Boerse after he refused to abandon a proposed takeover of the London Stock Exchange. Hohn also agitated for a sale of ABN Amro, ultimately pushing it into the hands of RBS.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Children’s Investment Fund
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 63,212 19,266 36,949 19,943 68,114 2,354 26,535 115,704 5,087 8,538
Company / Ticker Walt Disney / DIS Viacom / VIA.B Union Pacific / UNP WellPoint / WLP Co. Bebidas Americas / ABV Compass Minerals / CMP Lockheed Martin / LMT Oracle / ORCL Moody's / MCO Molson Coors / TAP
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 33.05 5% 31.68 1% 74.26 7% 49.89 2% 110.02 9% 71.87 2% 73.20 -2% 23.02 7% 21.71 9% 45.92 8%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 17,777 new 18,561 >100% 11,410 4% 5,358 15% 459 0% 32 0% 3,579 -25% 13,790 -18% 47 -15% 6,677 -21%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 14% 3% 14% 2% 20% 1% 6% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 6% <1% 8% <1% <1% 4% 7%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 14x 11x 10x 14x 12x 8x 8x 17x 16x 14x 12x 10x 9x 12x 11x 12x 11x 13x 12x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x n/m 2.1x 8.3x >9.9x 9.6x n/m >9.9x n/m 6.5x
Top Holdings of Children’s Investment Fund – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 36,949 58,890 19,266 63,212 127,713 115,704 8,538 19,943 26,535 68,114
Company / Ticker Union Pacific / UNP Visa / V Viacom / VIA.B Walt Disney / DIS Coca-Cola / KO Oracle / ORCL Molson Coors / TAP WellPoint / WLP Lockheed Martin / LMT Co. Bebidas Americas / ABV
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 74.26 7% 70.10 -1% 31.68 1% 33.05 5% 55.30 10% 23.02 7% 45.92 8% 49.89 2% 73.20 -2% 110.02 9%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 11,410 4% 8,523 -45% 18,561 >100% 17,777 new 6,093 -28% 13,790 -18% 6,677 -21% 5,358 15% 3,579 -25% 459 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 2% 20% 1% 14% 3% 14% <1% 14% <1% 8% <1% 8% 4% 7% 1% 6% <1% 6% <1% 1%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Walt Disney / DIS
MasterCard / MA Time Warner / TWX
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Sector Weightings $4.2 billion
Other 31%
100%
Median market value
$36 billion
Average market value
$46 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
8.0x
Transportation 20%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 14x 12x 18x 15x 11x 10x 16x 14x 16x 15x 12x 11x 13x 12x 8x 8x 10x 9x 17x 16x
Price/ Tang. Book 2.1x >9.9x n/m >9.9x 9.5x >9.9x 6.5x 8.3x n/m >9.9x
*
Services 28%
Financial 21%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 25 of 175
Chou Associates (Francis Chou) Francis Chou arrived in Canada from India in 1976. Over the years, he worked for Bell Canada, Gardiner Watson, and Fairfax Financial. The roots of Chou Associates date back to 1986. Today, Chou manages several investment funds and has been repeatedly ranked one of the top investment managers in Canada. He follows a deep value-oriented investment style.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Chou Associates
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Overstock.com / OSTK Bank of America / BAC Sprint Nextel / S Flagstone Re / FSR Sears Holdings / SHLD Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A Nokia / NOK Vodafone / VOD BP / BP International Coal / ICO
Market Value ($mn) 321 129,136 12,505 797 6,815 192,655 34,042 124,220 113,998 1,009
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 13.90 -23% 12.87 -10% 4.19 -1% 10.21 -6% 61.59 -5% 116,700 -3% 9.09 12% 23.55 14% 36.40 26% 4.95 29%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,220 0% 1,200 new 6,123 0% 1,500 0% 334 0% 0 0% 30 100% 10 new 10 new 3,000 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 10% 10% <1% 5% <1% 8% 2% 5% <1% 6% <1% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 22x 15x 14x 8x n/m n/m n/a n/a 24x 23x 19x 18x 13x 11x 9x 9x 6x 6x 20x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x 1.2x n/m .7x 1.7x 2.1x 5.5x 5.0x 1.8x 1.4x
Top Holdings of Chou Associates – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker King Pharma / KG Biovail / BVF Overstock.com / OSTK Watson Pharma / WPI Sprint Nextel / S Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A Sears Holdings / SHLD Bank of America / BAC Flagstone Re / FSR International Coal / ICO
Market Value ($mn) 2,307 3,565 321 5,269 12,505 192,655 6,815 129,136 797 1,009
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 9.24 22% 22.48 17% 13.90 -23% 42.19 4% 4.19 -1% 116,700 -3% 61.59 -5% 12.87 -10% 10.21 -6% 4.95 29%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 6,728 -1% 1,937 -9% 2,220 0% 635 -10% 6,123 0% 0 0% 334 0% 1,200 new 1,500 0% 3,000 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 3% 19% 1% 14% 10% 10% <1% 8% <1% 8% <1% 7% <1% 6% <1% 5% 2% 5% 1% 5%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Bank of America / BAC BP / BP Vodafone / VOD
RCN Corp. / RCNI Qwest Comms / Q
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings $321 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
86%
Median market value
$3.3 billion
Average market value
$27 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
1.6x
Financial 17%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 14x 13x 22x 20x 22x 15x 12x 11x n/m n/m 19x 18x 24x 23x 14x 8x n/a n/a 20x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.9x n/m >9.9x >9.9x n/m 2.1x 1.7x 1.2x .7x 1.4x
*, **
Other 5%
Health Care 47%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services 31%
**
A large portion of assets managed by Francis Chou may be invested in Canadian and other securities, which are not shown in the chart or tables.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 26 of 175
Clarium (Peter Thiel) Peter Thiel, born in Germany in 1967, founded global macro hedge fund Clarium after selling PayPal, a company he cofounded, to eBay in 2002. Thiel is also managing partner of venture capital firm The Founders Fund. He is also an early investor in Facebook, having paid $500,000 for 10.2% of the company in 2004. In his youth, Thiel was a Chess Master and one of the highest-ranked young chess players in the U.S. He is a libertarian.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Clarium Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6
Market Value ($mn) 93,030 368 690 12,985 77,782 105,291
Company / Ticker Hewlett-Packard / HPQ Rosetta Stone / RST Interactive Brokers / IBKR Progressive Corp. / PGR McDonald's / MCD Intel / INTC
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 39.85 -8% 17.86 -22% 16.34 -2% 19.45 4% 73.08 11% 18.91 -3%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 43 6% 50 0% 90 13% 81 0% 24 0% 30 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 20% <1% 10% <1% 17% <1% 18% <1% 20% <1% 7%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 9x 8x 25x 15x 25x 14x 13x 12x 16x 15x 9x 9x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x 3.0x 1.1x 2.1x 7.3x 2.6x
Top Holdings of Clarium Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Market Value ($mn) 77,782 93,030 12,985 690 368 677 105,291
Company / Ticker McDonald's / MCD Hewlett-Packard / HPQ Progressive Corp. / PGR Interactive Brokers / IBKR Rosetta Stone / RST Contango Oil & Gas / MCF Intel / INTC
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 73.08 11% 39.85 -8% 19.45 4% 16.34 -2% 17.86 -22% 42.91 -4% 18.91 -3%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 24 0% 43 6% 81 0% 90 13% 50 0% 15 -40% 30 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 20% <1% 20% <1% 18% <1% 17% <1% 10% <1% 7% <1% 7%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
None
Axis Capital / AXS Exxon Mobil / XOM
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
$3.7 billion
Average market value
$54 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
12x
Median P/E (next FY)
9x
Median P / tangible book
*, **
Other 7%
100%
Median market value
Price/ Tang. Book 7.3x >9.9x 2.1x 1.1x 3.0x 1.8x 2.6x
Iconix Brand Group / ICON Trico Marine / TRMA
Sector Weightings $9 million
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 15x 9x 8x 13x 12x 25x 14x 25x 15x 14x 9x 9x 9x
Services 20%
Technology 37%
2.1x
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Financial 35%
**
A large portion of assets managed by Peter Thiel may be invested in nonequity and non-U.S. securities, which are not shown in the chart or tables.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 27 of 175
Eagle (Boykin Curry) Ravenel Boykin Curry IV manages New York-based Eagle Capital Management, which started as a family investment partnership and has grown to more than $5 billion in assets invested in equities. Curry has a long term-oriented investment approach and looks for out-of-favor companies that trade at a significant discount to intrinsic value.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Eagle Capital Management
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 186,299 127,713 27,041 57,521 29,371 23,542 209,676 5,936 35,538 82,285
Company / Ticker Wal-Mart / WMT Coca-Cola / KO Praxair / PX 3M / MMM Lowe's / LOW Travelers / TRV Microsoft / MSFT Ensco / ESV UnitedHealth / UNH ConocoPhillips / COP
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 50.22 4% 55.30 10% 88.35 16% 80.66 2% 20.64 1% 50.09 2% 24.23 5% 41.51 6% 31.61 11% 53.89 10%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 5,653 0% 5,723 1% 3,416 3% 2,824 9% 3,597 new 6 new 11,226 1% 1,036 new 8,247 2% 6 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 5% <1% 6% 1% 5% <1% 4% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 13x 11x 16x 15x 19x 17x 14x 13x 15x 12x 9x 9x 10x 9x 11x 10x 9x 9x 9x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book 3.8x 9.5x 8.2x 8.1x 1.5x 1.1x 6.4x 1.1x >9.9x 1.4x
Top Holdings of Eagle Capital Management – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 49,985 6,918 127,713 27,041 186,299 209,676 35,538 11,070 7,865 57,521
Company / Ticker Comcast / CMCSA Liberty Global / LBTYA Coca-Cola / KO Praxair / PX Wal-Mart / WMT Microsoft / MSFT UnitedHealth / UNH Ecolab / ECL Altera / ALTR 3M / MMM
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 17.81 3% 28.39 9% 55.30 10% 88.35 16% 50.22 4% 24.23 5% 31.61 11% 47.45 6% 25.60 3% 80.66 2%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 18,986 -1% 11,771 -1% 5,723 1% 3,416 3% 5,653 0% 11,226 1% 8,247 2% 5,464 -4% 9,927 -4% 2,824 9%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 6% 5% 6% <1% 6% 1% 5% <1% 5% <1% 5% <1% 5% 2% 5% 3% 5% <1% 4%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
ConocoPhillips / COP Ensco / ESV Lowe's / LOW Travelers / TRV
Boeing / BA Costco Wholesale / COST CVS Caremark / CVS
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 14x 12x n/m n/m 16x 15x 19x 17x 13x 11x 10x 9x 9x 9x 21x 19x 11x 12x 14x 13x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m n/m 9.5x 8.2x 3.8x 6.4x >9.9x >9.9x 4.9x 8.1x
DigitalGlobe / DGI DISH Network / DISH EOG Resources / EOG
*
$5.6 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
51%
Median market value
$17 billion
Average market value
$39 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tangible book
2.3x
Other 37%
Financial 14%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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Services 33%
Consumer Non-Cyclical 16%
August 27, 2010 – Page 28 of 175
Edinburgh Partners (Sandy Nairn) Sandy Nairn follows a value-oriented investment style. He developed his approach during a ten-year “apprenticeship” under famed investor Sir John Templeton.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Edinburgh Partners
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 14,894 151,002 19,118 82,285 129,136 3,269 160,689 10,592 22,266 10,893
Company / Ticker Applied Materials / AMAT Petroleo Brasileiro / PBR Time Warner Cable / TWC ConocoPhillips / COP Bank of America / BAC D.R. Horton / DHI General Electric / GE SK Telecom / SKM Franklin Resources / BEN Symantec / SYMC
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 11.09 -8% 34.42 0% 53.79 3% 53.89 10% 12.87 -10% 10.27 4% 15.03 4% 16.17 10% 98.92 15% 13.80 -1%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 16,158 28% 7,040 3% 5,469 0% 3,377 1% 13,199 1% 16,862 2% 11,693 1% 11,042 2% 1,784 0% 11,157 1%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 1% 7% <1% 10% 2% 12% <1% 7% <1% 7% 5% 7% <1% 7% 2% 7% <1% 7% 1% 6%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 12x 9x n/a n/a 16x 13x 9x 8x 14x 8x 14x 19x 14x 12x 9x 8x 16x 14x 11x 9x
Price/ Tang. Book 2.6x 1.9x n/m 1.4x 1.2x 1.3x 4.0x 3.4x 4.1x n/m
Top Holdings of Edinburgh Partners – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 19,118 151,002 126,959 82,285 14,894 10,592 22,266 160,689 3,269 129,136
Company / Ticker Time Warner Cable / TWC Petroleo Brasileiro / PBR Cisco Systems / CSCO ConocoPhillips / COP Applied Materials / AMAT SK Telecom / SKM Franklin Resources / BEN General Electric / GE D.R. Horton / DHI Bank of America / BAC
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 53.79 3% 34.42 0% 22.23 4% 53.89 10% 11.09 -8% 16.17 10% 98.92 15% 15.03 4% 10.27 4% 12.87 -10%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 5,469 0% 7,040 3% 10,125 -25% 3,377 1% 16,158 28% 11,042 2% 1,784 0% 11,693 1% 16,862 2% 13,199 1%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 2% 12% <1% 10% <1% 9% <1% 7% 1% 7% 2% 7% <1% 7% <1% 7% 5% 7% <1% 7%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
None
Home Depot / HD
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings $2.5 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Other 34%
81%
Median market value
$23 billion
Average market value
$61 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
10x
Median P / tangible book
2.6x
Energy 17%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 13x n/a n/a 13x 11x 9x 8x 12x 9x 9x 8x 16x 14x 14x 12x 14x 19x 14x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 1.9x 5.2x 1.4x 2.6x 3.4x 4.1x 4.0x 1.3x 1.2x
*
Technology 29%
Services 19%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 29 of 175
ESL Investments (Eddie Lampert) Eddie Lampert, founder and managing member of ESL Investments, is a value investor who started out working under Bob Rubin at the arbitrage desk of Goldman Sachs. When he left Goldman to start ESL in 1988, he received the support of Texas investor Richard Rainwater. Lampert compounded ESL’s capital at rates of more than 25% per annum for many years. His largest investment was the much-publicized taking control of Kmart during Kmart’s bankruptcy process in 2002. Lampert engineered the merger of Kmart and Sears in 2004. He is currently chairman and chief capital allocator of the combined firm, Sears Holdings (SHLD). He also still manages his investment partnership, which holds a concentrated investment portfolio.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of ESL Investments
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Market Value ($mn) 5,559 17,257 6,815 108,651 7,618 10,017 3,429
Company / Ticker Genworth Financial / GNW Capital One / COF Sears Holdings / SHLD Citigroup / C CIT Group / CIT AutoZone / AZO AutoNation / AN
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 11.36 -13% 37.78 -6% 61.59 -5% 3.75 0% 38.04 12% 213.07 10% 23.42 20%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 9,091 12% 7,093 -22% 48,180 -22% 24,592 -21% 3,563 -21% 12,439 -36% 62,227 -19%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 2% 1% 2% 3% 44% 39% <1% 1% 2% 2% 26% 35% 43% 19%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 11x 7x 8x 9x 24x 23x 10x 8x 16x 15x 15x 13x 16x 13x
Price/ Tang. Book .5x 1.6x 1.7x .9x .9x n/m 5.2x
Top Holdings of ESL Investments – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Market Value ($mn) 6,815 10,017 3,429 17,257 7,618 5,559 108,651
Company / Ticker Sears Holdings / SHLD AutoZone / AZO AutoNation / AN Capital One / COF CIT Group / CIT Genworth Financial / GNW Citigroup / C
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 61.59 -5% 213.07 10% 23.42 20% 37.78 -6% 38.04 12% 11.36 -13% 3.75 0%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 48,180 -22% 12,439 -36% 62,227 -19% 7,093 -22% 3,563 -21% 9,091 12% 24,592 -21%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 44% 39% 26% 35% 43% 19% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% <1% 1%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
None
Acxiom / ACXM SLM Corp. / SLM Wells Fargo / WFC
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 24x 23x 15x 13x 16x 13x 8x 9x 16x 15x 11x 7x 10x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.7x n/m 5.2x 1.6x .9x .5x .9x
*
Financial 8%
$7.7 billion 100%
Median market value
$7.6 billion
Average market value
$39 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY) Median P / tangible book
9x 1.6x
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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Services 92%
August 27, 2010 – Page 30 of 175
Fairfax (Prem Watsa) Prem Watsa is the founder, chairman and CEO of Fairfax (FFH), a Canadian property/casualty insurance and reinsurance firm. While managing Fairfax’s investment portfolio over the past couple of decades, Watsa has built a reputation as an astute value investor. Some have called him “Warren Buffett of Canada.” In recent years, Watsa’s firm successfully defended itself against short sellers who allegedly conspired to drive down the price of Fairfax stock and hurt the company’s business. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Fairfax
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Market Value ($mn) 321 105,291 50,752 128,742 41,679 161,796 1,009
Company / Ticker Overstock.com / OSTK Intel / INTC Kraft Foods / KFT Wells Fargo / WFC U.S. Bancorp / USB Johnson & Johnson / JNJ International Coal / ICO
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 13.90 -23% 18.91 -3% 29.10 4% 24.60 -4% 21.74 -3% 58.74 -1% 4.95 29%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 3,389 0% 11,500 new 10,150 2% 14,074 0% 11,307 0% 6,884 0% 45,156 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 15% 2% <1% 8% <1% 11% <1% 13% <1% 9% <1% 16% 22% 9%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 22x 15x 9x 9x 14x 13x 12x 9x 13x 10x 12x 12x 20x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x 2.6x n/m 2.2x 2.9x 7.4x 1.4x
Top Holdings of Fairfax – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Market Value ($mn) 161,796 128,742 50,752 23,636 41,679 1,009 105,291 1,781 7,658
Company / Ticker Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Wells Fargo / WFC Kraft Foods / KFT Dell / DELL U.S. Bancorp / USB International Coal / ICO Intel / INTC Level 3 Comms / LVLT Frontier Comms / FTR
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 58.74 -1% 24.60 -4% 29.10 4% 12.07 0% 21.74 -3% 4.95 29% 18.91 -3% 1.07 -2% 7.72 9%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 16% <1% 13% <1% 11% 1% 11% <1% 9% 22% 9% <1% 8% 8% 6% 2% 6%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 12x 12x 12x 9x 14x 13x 10x 8x 13x 10x 20x 8x 9x 9x n/m n/m 15x 17x
Price/ Tang. Book 7.4x 2.2x n/m >9.9x 2.9x 1.4x 2.6x n/m n/m
Sold Out Positions
1st Century Banc / FCTY Citigroup / C Consolidated Edison / ED Dominion Resources / D Duke Energy / DUK Everest Re / RE Intel / INTC MBIA / MBI Patterson-UTI Energy / PTEN
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from ('000) Mar. 31 6,884 0% 14,074 0% 10,150 2% 22,817 -1% 11,307 0% 45,156 0% 11,500 new 139,276 0% 18,620 0%
PG&E / PCG PPL Corp. / PPL Public Service / PEG Sempra Energy / SRE SLM Corp. / SLM Southern Company / SO Sybase / SY Xcel Energy / XEL
*
Portfolio size
General Electric / GE Leucadia National / LUK
Sector Weightings
*, **
$2.6 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Financial 24%
92%
Median market value
$7.7 billion
Average market value
$33 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
1.6x
Other 41%
Technology 19%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Health Care 16%
**
A large portion of Fairfax’s asset value may be attributed to holdings that are not publicly traded and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 31 of 175
Fairholme (Bruce Berkowitz) Bruce Berkowitz, manager of The Fairholme Fund, has been one of the most successful value-oriented investors of the past decade. From inception on December 29, 1999 through December 31, 2009, The Fairholme Fund delivered a cumulative return, net of expenses, of 253%, versus a return of -9%, before expenses, for the S&P 500 Index. This translates into annualized performance of 13.4% and -0.9% for The Fairholme Fund and the S&P 500 Index, respectively. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Fairholme
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Goldman Sachs / GS AIG / AIG MBIA / MBI Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A Citigroup / C RSC Holdings / RRR St. Joe / JOE Bank of America / BAC Morgan Stanley / MS BP / BP
Market Value ($mn) 76,435 23,467 1,816 192,655 108,651 675 2,314 129,136 36,209 113,998
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 148.24 13% 35.17 2% 9.06 61% 116,700 -3% 3.75 0% 6.52 6% 24.96 8% 12.87 -10% 25.92 12% 36.40 26%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 5,991 new 32,789 >100% 22,736 new 7 18% 237,323 4% 14,839 3% 26,799 0% 54,093 38% 16,258 new 9,436 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 1% 8% 5% 11% 11% 2% <1% 8% <1% 8% 14% <1% 29% 6% <1% 6% 1% 4% <1% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 10x 8x 5x 8x n/m n/m 19x 18x 10x 8x n/m 28x n/m n/m 14x 8x 8x 8x 6x 6x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.3x >9.9x .7x 2.1x .9x n/m 2.6x 1.2x 1.2x 1.8x
Top Holdings of Fairholme – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker AIG / AIG Citigroup / C Goldman Sachs / GS Sears Holdings / SHLD Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A Bank of America / BAC St. Joe / JOE Humana / HUM AmeriCredit / ACF Regions Financial / RF
Market Value ($mn) 23,467 108,651 76,435 6,815 192,655 129,136 2,314 8,210 3,255 8,566
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 35.17 2% 3.75 0% 148.24 13% 61.59 -5% 116,700 -3% 12.87 -10% 24.96 8% 48.51 6% 24.12 32% 6.82 4%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from ('000) Mar. 31 32,789 >100% 237,323 4% 5,991 new 14,037 -5% 7 18% 54,093 38% 26,799 0% 13,106 -17% 24,709 -19% 71,912 -5%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 5% 11% <1% 8% 1% 8% 13% 8% <1% 8% <1% 6% 29% 6% 8% 6% 18% 5% 6% 4%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
BP / BP Goldman Sachs / GS MBIA / MBI Morgan Stanley / MS
None
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
71%
Median market value
$7.7 billion
Average market value
$35 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
12x
Median P/E (next FY)
11x
Median P / tangible book
1.5x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x .9x 1.3x 1.7x 2.1x 1.2x 2.6x 1.9x 1.4x 1.1x
*
Other Capital Goods 7% 4%
$11 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 5x 8x 10x 8x 10x 8x 24x 23x 19x 18x 14x 8x n/m n/m 8x 9x 14x 13x n/m 21x
Services 21%
Financial 68%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 32 of 175
First Pacific (Bob Rodriguez and Steven Romick) Bob Rodriguez is one of the most successful small cap mutual fund managers of the past couple of decades. He joined First Pacific Advisors in 1983 and now serves as the firm’s CEO. He also manages the FPA Capital Fund. Steve Romick joined FPA in 1996 and serves as portfolio managers of the FPA Crescent Fund.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of First Pacific Advisors
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 19,104 5,936 2,918 2,890 60,967 9,955 2,236 16,817 2,331 87
Company / Ticker Covidien / COV Ensco / ESV Arrow Electronics / ARW Rowan Companies / RDC Occidental Petroleum / OXY Aon Corp. / AON SM Energy / SM Baker Hughes / BHI Lincare / LNCR Seahawk Drilling / HAWK
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 38.09 -5% 41.51 6% 24.77 11% 25.21 15% 75.06 -3% 36.91 -1% 35.48 -12% 39.01 -6% 23.76 -27% 7.33 -65%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 3,209 33% 7,980 6% 5,111 2% 7,353 4% 1,281 56% 2,880 44% 1,034 new 1,976 new 1,564 50% 194 -2%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 3% 6% 8% 4% 3% 6% 5% <1% 2% 1% 3% 2% <1% <1% 2% 2% <1% 2% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 12x 11x 11x 10x 6x 6x 10x 11x 14x 11x 11x 11x 33x 28x 21x 13x 13x 11x n/m n/m
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x 1.1x 1.5x .9x 2.0x n/m 1.9x 2.7x n/m .2x
Top Holdings of First Pacific Advisors – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 5,936 2,890 3,670 2,918 19,104 2,391 1,028 9,955 1,385 60,967
Company / Ticker Ensco / ESV Rowan Companies / RDC Avnet / AVT Arrow Electronics / ARW Covidien / COV Signet Jewelers / SIG Rosetta Resources / ROSE Aon Corp. / AON Trinity Industries / TRN Occidental Petroleum / OXY
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 41.51 6% 25.21 15% 24.17 0% 24.77 11% 38.09 -5% 27.95 2% 19.48 -2% 36.91 -1% 17.37 -2% 75.06 -3%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 6% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 4% 3% <1% 3% 5% 3% 11% 3% 1% 3% 7% 3% <1% 2%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 11x 10x 10x 11x 7x 6x 6x 6x 12x 11x n/a n/a 30x 15x 11x 11x 24x 14x 14x 11x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.1x .9x 1.5x 1.5x >9.9x 1.3x 2.0x n/m .9x 2.0x
Sold Out Positions
Anheuser-Busch / BUD Baker Hughes / BHI Devon Energy / DVN Johnson & Johnson / JNJ
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 7,980 6% 7,353 4% 5,701 -3% 5,111 2% 3,209 33% 4,280 -7% 5,880 -14% 2,880 44% 5,903 -1% 1,281 56%
SM Energy / SM Tidewater / TDW Transocean / RIG Travelers / TRV
*
Portfolio size
None
Sector Weightings
*
$4.0 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Other 33%
36%
Median market value
$3.0 billion
Average market value
$19 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
1.9x
Technology 13%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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Energy 35%
Services 19%
August 27, 2010 – Page 33 of 175
Gates Capital (Jeff Gates) Jeff Gates has 25+ years of experience identifying undervalued securities. He started the ECF Value Fund in 1996 after spending 10+ years in high yield bond research and sales, including as a director at Schroder & Co.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Gates Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 14,585 2,614 2,149 534 1,769 211 710 8,710 1,520 110
Company / Ticker Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Domtar / UFS Armstrong World / AWI Blount International / BLT Solutia / SOA Vishay Precision / VPG Interval Leisure / IILG McGraw-Hill / MHP KAR Auction / KAR Dover Downs Gaming / DDE
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 29.02 12% 61.00 24% 37.25 23% 11.15 9% 14.50 11% 15.79 -74% 12.46 0% 28.18 0% 11.28 -9% 3.42 18%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1,413 new 694 >100% 1,320 79% 4,346 30% 3,275 23% 646 new 1,536 47% 785 39% 970 >100% 2,421 6%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 8% 2% 8% 2% 10% 9% 10% 3% 9% 5% 2% 3% 4% <1% 4% <1% 2% 8% 2%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 16x 7x 10x 22x 16x 14x 12x 10x 9x n/a n/a 17x 16x 11x 10x 12x 10x 13x 10x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 1.0x 1.7x n/m n/m 1.5x n/m n/m n/m 1.0x
Top Holdings of Gates Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Armstrong World / AWI Blount International / BLT Solutia / SOA Domtar / UFS Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Copart / CPRT McGraw-Hill / MHP DaVita / DVA Advance Auto Parts / AAP Interval Leisure / IILG
Market Value ($mn) 2,149 534 1,769 2,614 14,585 2,868 8,710 6,548 4,886 710
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 37.25 23% 11.15 9% 14.50 11% 61.00 24% 29.02 12% 34.01 -5% 28.18 0% 63.82 2% 55.89 11% 12.46 0%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1,320 79% 4,346 30% 3,275 23% 694 >100% 1,413 new 859 -10% 785 39% 315 -21% 359 -24% 1,536 47%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 2% 10% 9% 10% 3% 9% 2% 8% <1% 8% 1% 6% <1% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4% 3% 4%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Vishay Precision / VPG
Genesco / GCO Penn National Gaming / PENN Quanex Building / NX Western Union / WU
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings Other 24%
$508 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
67%
Median market value
$1.5 billion
Average market value
$3.2 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
11x
Median P / tangible book
1.7x
Capital Goods 23%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 22x 16x 14x 12x 10x 9x 7x 10x 16x 16x 18x 15x 11x 10x 15x 14x 15x 13x 17x 16x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.7x n/m n/m 1.0x n/m 3.3x n/m n/m 4.7x n/m
*
Services 30%
Basic Materials 23%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 34 of 175
Glenview (Larry Robbins) Larry Robbins founded Glenview after working for buyout specialist Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors. Robbins’ hedge fund utilizes various value-oriented investment strategies in order to generate absolute returns. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Glenview Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 12,406 6,548 6,725 8,127 19,627 1,085 24,604 2,331 1,527 1,798
Company / Ticker Xerox / XRX DaVita / DVA Expedia / EXPE Life Technologies / LIFE Medco Health / MHS PHH / PHH Express Scripts / ESRX Lincare / LNCR Live Nation / LYV Synovus Financial / SNV
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 8.97 12% 63.82 2% 23.64 26% 44.33 -6% 45.26 -18% 19.56 3% 45.36 -4% 23.76 -27% 8.80 -16% 2.29 -10%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 23,972 new 3,338 64% 9,084 >100% 7,305 17% 4,143 >100% 2,899 >100% 4,291 62% 2,314 >100% 2,788 >100% 3,000 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 2% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 7% <1% 4% 5% 1% <1% 4% 2% 1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 10x 8x 15x 14x 14x 12x 13x 12x 13x 11x n/m 7x 18x 14x 13x 11x n/m 73x n/m n/m
Price/ Tang. Book n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m 9.6x n/m n/m n/m .7x
Top Holdings of Glenview Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 8,127 16,124 12,406 6,725 6,548 24,604 3,368 19,627 115,704 18,008
Company / Ticker Life Technologies / LIFE McKesson / MCK Xerox / XRX Expedia / EXPE DaVita / DVA Express Scripts / ESRX Fidelity National / FNF Medco Health / MHS Oracle / ORCL Thermo Fisher / TMO
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 44.33 -6% 61.67 -8% 8.97 12% 23.64 26% 63.82 2% 45.36 -4% 14.76 14% 45.26 -18% 23.02 7% 44.20 -10%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 4% 7% 1% 5% 2% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% <1% 4% 6% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 13x 12x 13x 12x 10x 8x 14x 12x 15x 14x 18x 14x 13x 14x 13x 11x 12x 11x 13x 11x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 6.2x n/m n/m n/m n/m 2.5x n/m >9.9x >9.9x
Sold Out Positions
Air Products & Chem / APD Broadridge Financial / BR Discover Financial / DFS Gilead Sciences / GILD Goodrich Corp. / GR Google / GOOG Lab Corp. of America / LH McAfee / MFE
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 7,305 17% 3,737 -30% 23,972 new 9,084 >100% 3,338 64% 4,291 62% 12,885 42% 4,143 >100% 8,122 32% 4,062 -4%
Quest Diagnostics / DGX RadioShack / RSH Synovus Financial / SNV Talecris Bio / TLCR Waters / WAT Wyndham / WYN Xerox / XRX
*
Portfolio size
Amdocs / DOX American Water Works / AWK DIRECTV / DTV eBay / EBAY
Sector Weightings Other 26%
$4.9 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
44%
Median market value
$7.8 billion
Average market value
$24 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
11x
Median P / tangible book
2.6x
Health Care 19%
Kroger / KR Merck / MRK Morgan Stanley / MS R.R. Donnelley / RRD
*
Services 28%
Technology 28%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 35 of 175
Greenlight (David Einhorn) David Einhorn is the founder of Greenlight Capital, a value-oriented, research-driven investment firm with a market-beating long-term track record. From inception in May 1996 through yearend 2009, Greenlight Capital has returned, net of fees and expenses, 1,397% cumulatively or 22% annualized. He is also author of Fooling Some of the People All of the Time. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Greenlight
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 5,936 128,413 232 2,024 11,275 168 42 555 5,071 7,618
Company / Ticker Ensco / ESV Pfizer / PFE Republic Airways / RJET NCR / NCR Cardinal Health / CAH Einstein Noah / BAGL BioFuel Energy / BIOF MI Developments / MIM CareFusion / CFN CIT Group / CIT
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 41.51 6% 15.92 12% 6.69 9% 12.61 4% 31.14 -7% 10.14 -6% 1.29 -3% 11.88 -3% 22.81 0% 38.04 12%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 7,417 new 23,154 28% 3,853 12% 11,469 new 6,551 0% 10,733 0% 7,542 0% 5,655 0% 8,719 0% 10,590 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 5% 9% <1% 11% 11% <1% 7% 4% 2% 6% 65% 3% 23% <1% 12% 2% 4% 6% 5% 12%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 11x 10x 7x 7x n/m 7x 9x 8x 13x 11x 14x 12x n/a n/a n/a n/a 14x 12x 16x 15x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.1x n/m .7x 3.5x 3.7x n/m .6x .4x 5.3x .9x
Top Holdings of Greenlight – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 7,618 128,413 5,936 11,275 5,071 209,676 2,024 6,187 16,441 12,406
Company / Ticker CIT Group / CIT Pfizer / PFE Ensco / ESV Cardinal Health / CAH CareFusion / CFN Microsoft / MSFT NCR / NCR Gold Miners ETF / GDX Becton Dickinson / BDX Xerox / XRX
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 38.04 12% 15.92 12% 41.51 6% 31.14 -7% 22.81 0% 24.23 5% 12.61 4% 51.28 -1% 70.82 5% 8.97 12%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 5% 12% <1% 11% 5% 9% 2% 6% 4% 6% <1% 5% 7% 4% 2% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 15x 7x 7x 11x 10x 13x 11x 14x 12x 10x 9x 9x 8x n/a n/a 14x 13x 10x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book .9x n/m 1.1x 3.7x 5.3x 6.4x 3.5x 1.1x 4.5x n/m
Sold Out Positions
Apple / AAPL Ensco / ESV Furiex Pharma / FURX Lockheed Martin / LMT NCR / NCR
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 10,590 0% 23,154 28% 7,417 new 6,551 0% 8,719 0% 7,660 >100% 11,469 new 2,583 -19% 1,797 >100% 13,500 93%
Oritani Financial / ORIT Symmetricom / SYMM
*
Portfolio size
ATP Oil & Gas / ATPG Automatic Data / ADP Coinstar / CSTR Iconix Brand Group / ICON MDC Partners / MDCA
Sector Weightings Other 24%
$3.5 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
64%
Median market value
$2.4 billion
Average market value
$17 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
12x
Median P/E (next FY)
11x
Median P / tangible book
1.3x
Symetra Financial / SYA Teradata / TDC URS / URS Validus / VR
*
Financial 30%
Technology 19% Health Care 27%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 36 of 175
Gruss (Howard Guberman) Howard Guberman co-founded Palm Beach, Florida-based Gruss Investments with Audrey, Joshua and Martin Gruss. The firm follows a highly concentrated, value-oriented investment approach.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Gruss Asset Management
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Gerdau Ameristeel / GNA Novartis / NVS Caseys General Store / CASY SPDR Gold Trust / GLD Psychiatric Solution / PSYS Talecris Bio / TLCR Dollar Thrifty Auto / DTG Wells Fargo / WFC Abraxis Bioscience / ABII Novell / NOVL
Market Value ($mn) 4,750 116,091 1,919 50,567 1,901 2,728 1,381 128,742 3,012 2,033
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 10.95 0% 50.75 5% 37.68 8% 119.97 -1% 33.21 1% 22.20 5% 48.15 13% 24.60 -4% 74.43 0% 5.81 2%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from ('000) Mar. 31 2,000 new 2,250 new 550 new 1,020 6% 300 new 400 new 169 new 200 new 48 new 500 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 4% <1% 23% 1% 4% <1% 24% <1% 2% <1% 2% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 25x 13x 10x 10x 15x 13x n/a n/a 14x 13x 15x 13x 15x 17x 12x 9x n/a n/a 21x 20x
Price/ Tang. Book 9.6x 3.4x 2.5x 1.3x n/m 5.4x 3.1x 2.2x 6.6x 3.5x
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 32% <1% 24% <1% 23% <1% 4% 1% 4% <1% 2% 2% 2% <1% 2% <1% 2% <1% 2%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 21x 19x n/a n/a 10x 10x 25x 13x 15x 13x 14x 13x 95x 14x 15x 13x 16x 16x 15x 17x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x 1.3x 3.4x 9.6x 2.5x n/m 1.0x 5.4x n/m 3.1x
Top Holdings of Gruss Asset Management – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Alcon / ACL SPDR Gold Trust / GLD Novartis / NVS Gerdau Ameristeel / GNA Caseys General Store / CASY Psychiatric Solution / PSYS Retail Opportunity / ROIC Talecris Bio / TLCR Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Dollar Thrifty Auto / DTG
Market Value ($mn) 48,322 50,567 116,091 4,750 1,919 1,901 399 2,728 14,585 1,381
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 160.95 9% 119.97 -1% 50.75 5% 10.95 0% 37.68 8% 33.21 1% 9.54 -1% 22.20 5% 29.02 12% 48.15 13%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Abraxis Bioscience / ABII Caseys General / CASY Dollar Thrifty Auto / DTG Gerdau Ameristeel / GNA Novartis / NVS
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from ('000) Mar. 31 1,000 -16% 1,020 6% 2,250 new 2,000 new 550 new 300 new 961 0% 400 new 300 -41% 169 new
Novell / NOVL Psychiatric Solution / PSYS Talecris Bio / TLCR Wells Fargo / WFC
*
Portfolio size
Baker Hughes / BHI Sauer-Danfoss / SHS Synovus Financial / SNV Telefonos de Mexico / TMX
Sector Weightings $507 million
Top 10 as % o portfolio
Services 8%
96%
Median market value
$3.0 billion
Average market value
$22 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tangible book
3.4x
Financial 25%
*
Other 8%
Health Care 59%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 37 of 175
H Partners (Rehan Jaffer) Rehan Jaffer honed his investment approach at Dan Loeb’s activist hedge fund Third Point. He joined River Run Partners in 2004 and started H Partners shortly thereafter. Loeb was quoted in the book Hedge Hunters as saying the following about Jaffer: “He is super-hungry. He’s got a good nose. He’s very intelligent. So he’s got a great combination of having a high IQ, really strong financial analytics, a great nose for value, and great trader sense.” MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of H Partners
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 16,269 6,398 1,862 872 666 1,544 4,649 373 2,957 4,388
Company / Ticker Transocean / RIG CF Industries / CF W.R. Grace / GRA Leap Wireless / LEAP Boyd Gaming / BYD Coinstar / CSTR Crown Holdings / CCK Vantage Drilling / VTG Foster Wheeler / FWLT Owens Illinois / OI
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 51.00 10% 90.01 42% 25.58 22% 11.13 -14% 7.72 -9% 47.19 10% 28.67 14% 1.29 -4% 23.19 10% 26.83 1%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,077 new 400 new 850 70% 3,750 0% 3,100 0% 200 new 50 new 7,761 >100% 800 >100% 50 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 39% <1% 13% 1% 8% 5% 15% 4% 9% <1% 3% <1% <1% 3% 4% <1% 7% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 7x 6x 12x 12x 11x 11x n/m n/m 34x 23x 24x 17x 13x 12x n/m 9x 11x 10x 9x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.3x 3.8x n/m n/m 1.2x 7.9x n/m .5x 4.0x n/m
Top Holdings of H Partners – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 16,269 872 6,398 666 1,862 2,957 373 1,544 214 4,649
Company / Ticker Transocean / RIG Leap Wireless / LEAP CF Industries / CF Boyd Gaming / BYD W.R. Grace / GRA Foster Wheeler / FWLT Vantage Drilling / VTG Coinstar / CSTR FBR Capital Markets / FBCM Crown Holdings / CCK
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 51.00 10% 11.13 -14% 90.01 42% 7.72 -9% 25.58 22% 23.19 10% 1.29 -4% 47.19 10% 3.39 2% 28.67 14%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,077 new 3,750 0% 400 new 3,100 0% 850 70% 800 >100% 7,761 >100% 200 new 1,317 0% 50 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 39% 5% 15% <1% 13% 4% 9% 1% 8% <1% 7% 3% 4% <1% 3% 2% 2% <1% <1%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
CF Industries / CF Coinstar / CSTR Crown Holdings / CCK Owens Illinois / OI Transocean / RIG
Golar LNG / GLNG Key Energy Services / KEG MetroPCS / PCS Trico Marine / TRMA
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 7x 6x n/m n/m 12x 12x 34x 23x 11x 11x 11x 10x n/m 9x 24x 17x n/m 10x 13x 12x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.3x n/m 3.8x 1.2x n/m 4.0x .5x 7.9x .8x n/m
*
Other 12%
$275 million 100%
Median market value
$1.5 billion
Average market value
$3.0 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
10x
Median P / tangible book
1.5x
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Energy 42%
Basic Materials 22%
Services 24%
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August 27, 2010 – Page 38 of 175
Harbinger (Phil Falcone) Phil Falcone founded Harbinger Capital Partners in 2001 in order to capitalize on distressed investment opportunities. The firm has since expanded into special situation investments and other value-oriented investment strategies. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Harbinger Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Market Value ($mn) 1,381 8,923 102 32 2,560 3,929 5,540
Company / Ticker Spectrum Brands / SPB Cameron / CAM Harbinger Group / HRG TerreStar / TSTR Corn Products / CPO Walter Energy / WLT Calpine / CPN
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 26.99 6% 36.84 13% 5.29 -16% 0.23 -54% 34.02 12% 74.24 22% 12.46 -2%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 34,169 new 7,000 new 9,950 >100% 31,636 0% 3,930 13% 750 new 6,700 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 67% 45% 3% 13% 52% 3% 23% <1% 5% 7% 1% 3% 2% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/m 9x 16x 13x n/m n/m n/a n/a 13x 12x 8x 7x 96x 36x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 3.6x .7x n/m 1.7x >9.9x 1.3x
Top Holdings of Harbinger Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 1,381 8,923 12,505 2,560 108,651 1,126 5,540 2,952 3,929 102
Company / Ticker Spectrum Brands / SPB Cameron / CAM Sprint Nextel / S Corn Products / CPO Citigroup / C New York Times / NYT Calpine / CPN EXCO Resources / XCO Walter Energy / WLT Harbinger Group / HRG
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 26.99 6% 36.84 13% 4.19 -1% 34.02 12% 3.75 0% 7.72 -11% 12.46 -2% 13.88 -5% 74.24 22% 5.29 -16%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 34,169 new 7,000 new 35,000 -30% 3,930 13% 35,000 -50% 13,120 -22% 6,700 0% 5,837 -17% 750 new 9,950 >100%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 67% 45% 3% 13% 1% 7% 5% 7% <1% 6% 9% 5% 2% 4% 3% 4% 1% 3% 52% 3%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Cameron / CAM Crosstex Energy / XTXI Lloyds Banking / LYG Spectrum Brands / SPB Walter Energy / WLT
Ashland / ASH Bunge / BG Clearwire / CLWR Cliffs Natural / CLF Complete Production / CPX CONSOL Energy / CNX Constellation Energy / CEG Freeport-McMoRan / FCX Harry Winston / HWD iStar Financial / SFI Media General / MEG
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings $2.0 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
$2.6 billion
Average market value
$10.0 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
11x
Median P/E (next FY)
10x
Median P / tangible book
1.3x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 3.6x n/m 1.7x .9x n/m 1.3x 2.2x >9.9x .7x
Mercer International / MERC Mirant / MIR NRG Energy / NRG Owens Corning / OC Pioneer Drilling / PDC Seagate Technology / STX SPDR Gold Trust / GLD Strategic Hotels / BEE Trina Solar / TSL US Airways / LCC
*, **
Other 17%
97%
Median market value
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/m 9x 16x 13x n/m n/m 13x 12x 10x 8x 11x 11x 96x 36x 18x 13x 8x 7x n/m n/m
Services 13%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology 47%
Energy 23%
**
A material portion of assets managed by Phil Falcone may be invested in private, non-equity or non-U.S. securities, which are not shown here.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 39 of 175
Hawkshaw (Kian Ghazi) Kian Ghazi co-founded long/short investment partnership Hawkshaw in 2002. Ghazi looks for investments in which there is a disconnect between near-term market expectations and longer-term intrinsic value. He relies on in-depth primary research to form investment theses on individual companies. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Hawkshaw Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 10,893 23,636 50 5,215 1,001 3,210 242 244 50,567 6,187
Company / Ticker Symantec / SYMC Dell / DELL Frozen Food Express / FFEX Electronic Arts / ERTS Corporate Executive / EXBD Abercrombie & Fitch / ANF Aviat Networks / AVNW The Knot / KNOT SPDR Gold Trust / GLD Gold Miners ETF / GDX
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 13.80 -1% 12.07 0% 2.85 -19% 15.79 10% 29.20 11% 36.39 19% 4.05 12% 7.16 -8% 119.97 -1% 51.28 -1%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 962 new 1,050 16% 2,038 0% 839 0% 321 0% 358 0% 2,166 43% 254 new 60 0% 137 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 11% <1% 10% 12% 5% <1% 11% <1% 8% <1% 11% 4% 7% <1% 1% <1% 6% <1% 6%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 11x 9x 10x 8x n/m n/m 24x 18x 22x 17x 21x 15x n/m >99x >99x 65x n/a n/a n/a n/a
Price/ Tang. Book n/m >9.9x .6x 3.5x >9.9x 1.8x .9x 1.6x 1.3x 1.1x
Top Holdings of Hawkshaw Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Symantec / SYMC Electronic Arts / ERTS Abercrombie & Fitch / ANF Dell / DELL Corporate Executive / EXBD Aviat Networks / AVNW Universal Technical / UTI SPDR Gold Trust / GLD Gold Miners ETF / GDX IAC/InterActiveCorp / IACI
Market Value ($mn) 10,893 5,215 3,210 23,636 1,001 242 400 50,567 6,187 2,484
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 13.80 -1% 15.79 10% 36.39 19% 12.07 0% 29.20 11% 4.05 12% 16.53 -30% 119.97 -1% 51.28 -1% 23.75 8%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 962 new 839 0% 358 0% 1,050 16% 321 0% 2,166 43% 500 -10% 60 0% 137 0% 277 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 11% <1% 11% <1% 11% <1% 10% <1% 8% 4% 7% 2% 7% <1% 6% <1% 6% <1% 5%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Symantec / SYMC The Knot / KNOT
Core-Mark / CORE DragonWave / DRWI IMAX / IMAX MEMC Electronic / WFR Papa John's / PZZA
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
$916 million
Average market value
$5.5 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tangible book
1.6x
*
*
Financial 12%
81%
Median mar et value
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 3.5x 1.8x >9.9x >9.9x .9x 5.0x 1.3x 1.1x 1.7x
Other 8%
$123 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 11x 9x 24x 18x 21x 15x 10x 8x 22x 17x n/m >99x 13x 10x n/a n/a n/a n/a 30x 20x
Technology 41%
Services 40%
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 40 of 175
Icahn Capital (Carl Icahn) Carl Icahn is an activist investor with a long track record of success agitating for change at underperforming companies. Carl publishes an activist investing blog entitled The Icahn Report at www.icahnreport.com. Below we exclusively show holdings disclosed by Icahn Capital LP. Certain other entities controlled by Carl are excluded.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Icahn Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 13,335 873 715 852 17,458 1,041 2,852 13,397 24,103 17,046
Company / Ticker Chesapeake Energy / CHK Lions Gate / LGF Take-Two / TTWO Hain Celestial / HAIN Motorola / MOT Mentor Graphics / MENT Amylin Pharma / AMLN Biogen Idec / BIIB Anadarko Petroleum / APC Genzyme / GENZ
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 20.38 -3% 6.41 -8% 8.44 -6% 20.81 3% 7.48 15% 9.74 10% 19.85 6% 55.38 17% 48.70 35% 66.89 32%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 12,739 >100% 32,003 82% 9,431 1% 2,900 new 177,666 14% 6,215 new 12,971 0% 12,860 0% 2,000 new 10,480 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 2% 6% 23% 5% 11% 2% 7% 1% 8% 32% 6% 1% 9% 6% 5% 17% <1% 2% 4% 17%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 7x 7x n/m n/m n/m 7x 20x 17x 18x 14x 15x 11x n/m n/m 11x 11x 25x 20x 35x 19x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.1x n/m 3.0x 6.8x 2.6x 6.5x 7.3x 5.9x 1.6x 5.5x
Top Holdings of Icahn Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 17,458 13,397 17,046 13,335 2,852 873 24,103 715 1,041 852
Company / Ticker Motorola / MOT Biogen Idec / BIIB Genzyme / GENZ Chesapeake Energy / CHK Amylin Pharma / AMLN Lions Gate / LGF Anadarko Petroleum / APC Take-Two / TTWO Mentor Graphics / MENT Hain Celestial / HAIN
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 7.48 15% 55.38 17% 66.89 32% 20.38 -3% 19.85 6% 6.41 -8% 48.70 35% 8.44 -6% 9.74 10% 20.81 3%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 8% 32% 5% 17% 4% 17% 2% 6% 9% 6% 23% 5% <1% 2% 11% 2% 6% 1% 7% 1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 18x 14x 11x 11x 35x 19x 7x 7x n/m n/m n/m n/m 25x 20x n/m 7x 15x 11x 20x 17x
Price/ Tang. Book 2.6x 5.9x 5.5x 1.1x 7.3x n/m 1.6x 3.0x 6.5x 6.8x
Sold Out Positions
Anadarko Petroleum / APC Ensco / ESV Hain Celestial / HAIN Lawson Software / LWSN
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from ('000) Mar. 31 177,666 14% 12,860 0% 10,480 0% 12,739 >100% 12,971 0% 32,003 82% 2,000 new 9,431 1% 6,215 new 2,900 new
Mentor Graphics / MENT MICROS Systems / MCRS NRG Energy / NRG Smith & Wesson / SWHC
*
Portfolio size
CIT Group / CIT
Sector Weightings $4.1 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Other Energy 8% 9%
91%
Median market value
$2.4 billion
Average market value
$6.1 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tangible book
2.8x
*, **
Health Care 45%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Technology 38%
**
A large portion of assets controlled by Carl Icahn may be attributed to entities other than Icahn Capital LP and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 41 of 175
Kleinheinz Capital (John Kleinheinz) John Kleinheinz graduated from Stanford in 1984 and worked for Nomura, Merrill and San Antonio Capital before starting his firm in 1996. “We are contrarian, opportunistic and value-oriented. We are a macro firm in that we think about where we are being best paid to take risk and we mostly manifest that macro theme through a global long-short equity approach.” MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Kleinheinz Capital
1 2 3 4 5
Market Value ($mn) 28,596 6,805 1,334 2,825 151
Company / Ticker Baidu.com / BIDU Netflix / NFLX Veeco Instruments / VECO Mindray Medical / MR Cheniere Energy Inc. / LNG
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 82.17 21% 129.96 20% 32.63 -5% 26.38 -16% 2.62 -7%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1,000 >100% 225 new 1,645 25% 1,377 2% 5,690 13%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 6% <1% 2% 4% 4% 1% 3% 10% 1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 59x 38x 46x 35x 8x 7x 19x 17x n/m n/m
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x >9.9x 3.4x 4.4x n/m
Top Holdings of Kleinheinz Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 228,062 26,918 28,596 213,388 45,592 1,334 16,794 2,825 5,735 6,805
Company / Ticker Apple / AAPL Research In Motion / RIMM Baidu.com / BIDU China Mobile / CHL Lukoil / LUKOY Veeco Instruments / VECO Chubb / CB Mindray Medical / MR Ctrip.com / CTRP Netflix / NFLX
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 249.64 -1% 48.72 -1% 82.17 21% 53.18 8% 53.85 5% 32.63 -5% 53.39 7% 26.38 -16% 42.10 12% 129.96 20%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 553 -32% 2,167 -6% 1,000 >100% 1,200 -8% 1,145 -8% 1,645 25% 700 -1% 1,377 2% 750 17% 225 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 10% <1% 8% <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 4% 4% 4% <1% 3% 1% 3% <1% 2% <1% 2%
New Positions
Price/ Tang. Book 5.4x 4.1x >9.9x 2.9x .8x 3.4x 1.1x 4.4x 9.7x >9.9x
Sold Out Positions
AES Corp. / AES AFLAC / AFL Agilent Technologies / A Akamai Technologies / AKAM Amedisys / AMED American Capital / ACAS AutoNation / AN BP / BP China Fire / CFSG Devon Energy / DVN DreamWorks / DWA E-House China / EJ
Portfolio Metrics
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 17x 14x 9x 8x 59x 38x 14x 13x 5x 5x 8x 7x 10x 9x 19x 17x 45x 35x 46x 35x
EMC / EMC Express Scripts / ESRX Exxon Mobil / XOM Fiserv / FISV Home Inns & Hotels / HMIN Hot Topic / HOTT Itau Unibanco / ITUB Kraft Foods / KFT Las Vegas Sands / LVS Lihua International / LIWA Live Nation / LYV Longtop Fin. Tech / LFT
*
Portfolio size
Marvell Technology / MRVL McMoRan Exploration / MMR Netflix / NFLX Randgold Resources / GOLD Range Resources / RRC Sinovac Biotech / SVA Sprint Nextel / S Visa / V Vodafone / VOD Yahoo! / YHOO Yum! Brands / YUM Zale / ZLC
Sector Weightings
None
*, **
$1.4 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Other 23%
46%
Median market value
$3.5 billion
Average market value
$30 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
2.4x
Technology 42% Financial 13%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
Services 21%
**
A material portion of assets managed by John Kleinheinz may be invested in non-U.S. securities, which are not included in the charts or tables.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 42 of 175
Lane Five (Lisa Rapuano) Yale-educated Lisa Rapuano spent ten years at Legg Mason Capital Management and two years as co-CIO at Matador Capital Management prior to founding Lane Five in 2006.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Lane Five Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Smurfit-Stone / SSCC MasterCard / MA Bank of America / BAC Equinix / EQIX SBA Comms / SBAC Centerstate Banks / CSFL Learning Tree / LTRE Corinthian Colleges / COCO Iberiabank / IBKC Williams Controls / WMCO
Market Value ($mn) 1,830 27,005 129,136 4,104 4,211 238 126 396 1,354 66
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 18.30 -23% 206.37 3% 12.87 -10% 90.02 11% 36.73 8% 7.92 -22% 9.27 -15% 4.49 -54% 50.38 -2% 9.00 0%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1,050 new 47 34% 834 4% 80 18% 154 71% 72 new 744 3% 459 9% 69 new 682 3%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 1% 15% <1% 7% <1% 8% <1% 5% <1% 4% <1% <1% 5% 5% <1% 2% <1% 3% 9% 5%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 17x 9x 15x 13x 14x 8x 89x 36x n/m n/m >99x 38x 26x 18x 3x 2x 25x 17x >99x 13x
Price/ Tang. Book .9x 7.8x 1.2x 4.9x n/m 1.2x 2.0x 5.8x 1.3x 3.2x
Top Holdings of Lane Five Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 1,830 129,136 27,005 2,795 4,104 126 11,685 3,095 66 4,211
Company / Ticker Smurfit-Stone / SSCC Bank of America / BAC MasterCard / MA Ares Capital / ARCC Equinix / EQIX Learning Tree / LTRE Republic Services / RSG Raymond James / RJF Williams Controls / WMCO SBA Comms / SBAC
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 18.30 -23% 12.87 -10% 206.37 3% 14.55 16% 90.02 11% 9.27 -15% 30.51 3% 24.91 1% 9.00 0% 36.73 8%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 1% 15% <1% 8% <1% 7% <1% 6% <1% 5% 5% 5% <1% 5% <1% 5% 9% 5% <1% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 17x 9x 14x 8x 15x 13x 12x 10x 89x 36x 26x 18x 18x 15x 14x 12x >99x 13x n/m n/m
Price/ Tang. Book .9x 1.2x 7.8x 1.0x 4.9x 2.0x n/m 1.4x 3.2x n/m
Sold Out Positions
Centerstate Banks / CSFL DIRECTV / DTV Iberiabank / IBKC
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1,050 new 834 4% 47 34% 499 -38% 80 18% 744 3% 223 3% 269 3% 682 3% 154 71%
Smurfit-Stone / SSCC Visa / V
*
Portfolio size
American Tower / AMT Crown Castle / CCI drugstore.com / DSCM
Sector Weightings $132 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Health Care 8%
65%
Median mar et value
$2.9 billion
Average market value
$14 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tangible book
1.9x
Interval Leisure / IILG Legg Mason / LM Potash / POT
*
Other 5%
Services 47% Financial 40%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 43 of 175
Leucadia (Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg) Chairman Cumming and President Steinberg describe their approach in a 2008 letter: “We tend to be buyers of assets and companies that are troubled or out of favor and as a result are selling substantially below the values, which we believe, are there. From time to time, we sell parts of these operations when prices available in the market reach what we believe to be advantageous levels. While we are not perfect in executing this strategy, we are proud of our long-term track record. We are not income statement driven and do not run your company with an undue emphasis on either quarterly or annual earnings. We believe we are conservative in our accounting practices and policies and that our balance sheet is conservatively stated.”
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Leucadia
1 2 3 4 5
Market Value ($mn) 327 295 4,121 3,255 62
Company / Ticker Capital Southwest / CSWC International Assets / IAAC Jefferies / JEF AmeriCredit / ACF TravelCenters / TA
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 87.37 -1% 16.74 5% 24.00 14% 24.12 32% 3.61 56%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 20 0% 1,385 0% 48,585 0% 33,900 0% 275 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% <1% 8% 1% 28% 58% 25% 41% 2% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/a n/a 19x 19x 17x 14x 14x 13x n/m n/m
Price/ Tang. Book .7x 1.3x 2.1x 1.4x .3x
Top Holdings of Leucadia – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5
Market Value ($mn) 4,121 3,255 295 327 62
Company / Ticker Jefferies / JEF AmeriCredit / ACF International Assets / IAAC Capital Southwest / CSWC TravelCenters / TA
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 24.00 14% 24.12 32% 16.74 5% 87.37 -1% 3.61 56%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 48,585 0% 33,900 0% 1,385 0% 20 0% 275 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 28% 58% 25% 41% 8% 1% <1% <1% 2% <1%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
None
Endwave / ENWV Millennium India / SMCG
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Sector Weightings $2.0 billion
$295 million
Average market value
$1.2 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tangible book
.7x
Price/ Tang. Book 2.1x 1.4x 1.3x .7x .3x
*, **
Services 0%
100%
Median market value
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 17x 14x 14x 13x 19x 19x n/a n/a n/m n/m
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**
Financial 100%
A large portion of Leucadia’s asset value may be attributed to holdings that are not publicly traded and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 44 of 175
Lone Pine (Steve Mandel) Mandel founded long/short firm Lone Pine in 1997. He previously worked for Tiger Management, Goldman Sachs and Mars. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Lone Pine
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 11,786 2,331 19,764 17,936 1,245 11,296 14,630 2,698 1,527 50,567
Company / Ticker Crown Castle / CCI Lincare / LNCR Yum! Brands / YUM Cognizant Tech / CTSH VistaPrint / VPRT Estee Lauder / EL priceline.com / PCLN DeVry / DV Live Nation / LYV SPDR Gold Trust / GLD
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 40.60 9% 23.76 -27% 42.32 8% 59.61 19% 28.39 -40% 57.39 3% 302.36 71% 37.98 -28% 8.80 -16% 119.97 -1%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 10,957 new 6,245 new 15,053 23% 11,868 9% 797 new 6,106 75% 1,188 new 1,286 new 11,706 22% 3,370 45%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 4% 4% 6% 1% 3% 6% 4% 7% 2% <1% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% <1% 7% <1% <1% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/m >99x 13x 11x 17x 15x 26x 23x 13x 11x 19x 16x 25x 20x 8x 7x n/m 73x n/a n/a
Price/ Tang. Book n/m n/m >9.9x 6.6x 3.4x >9.9x >9.9x 5.7x n/m 1.3x
Top Holdings of Lone Pine – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 17,936 19,764 147,266 228,062 11,786 62,458 27,121 50,567 14,630 11,296
Company / Ticker Cognizant Tech / CTSH Yum! Brands / YUM JPMorgan Chase / JPM Apple / AAPL Crown Castle / CCI QUALCOMM / QCOM Accenture / ACN SPDR Gold Trust / GLD priceline.com / PCLN Estee Lauder / EL
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 59.61 19% 42.32 8% 37.14 1% 249.64 -1% 40.60 9% 38.91 18% 38.42 -1% 119.97 -1% 302.36 71% 57.39 3%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 4% 7% 3% 6% <1% 6% <1% 5% 4% 4% <1% 4% 2% 4% <1% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 26x 23x 17x 15x 10x 8x 17x 14x n/m >99x 16x 15x 15x 13x n/a n/a 25x 20x 19x 16x
Price/ Tang. Book 6.6x >9.9x 1.5x 5.4x n/m 4.1x >9.9x 1.3x >9.9x >9.9x
Sold Out Positions
7 Days Group / SVN Autodesk / ADSK Career Education / CECO China Lodging / HTHT Crown Castle / CCI DeVry / DV Dollar General / DG Equinix / EQIX Family Dollar Stores / FDO Google / GOOG
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 11,868 9% 15,053 23% 16,436 -8% 2,251 -4% 10,957 new 11,265 -24% 10,668 -15% 3,370 45% 1,188 new 6,106 75%
Lincare / LNCR Owens Corning / OC priceline.com / PCLN QuinStreet / QNST Regal Entertainment / RGC Suntech Power / STP TD Ameritrade / AMTD VanceInfo / VIT VistaPrint / VPRT
*
Portfolio size
Apollo Group / APOL Bank of America / BAC Baxter International / BAX Coca-Cola / KO CVS Caremark / CVS Dr Pepper Snapple / DPS Mindray Medical / MR Monsanto / MON PNC Financial / PNC Staples / SPLS
Sector Weightings
46%
Median market value
$8.7 billion
Average market value
$27 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tangible book
4.3x
Services 34% Financial 16%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
*
Other 16%
$11 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Walter Energy / WLT Wells Fargo / WFC
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Technology 33%
August 27, 2010 – Page 45 of 175
Markel Gayner (Tom Gayner) Tom Gayner has been President of Markel Gayner Asset Management since 1990 and EVP and CIO of Markel, a Richmond, Virginia-based international property and casualty insurance holding company, since 2004. Tom has been a disciplined steward of capital on behalf of Markel shareholders, and his long-term investment record is one of the best in the business. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Markel Gayner
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1
Company / Ticker Investors Title / ITIC Union Bankshares / UBSH 1 Fairfax Financial / FRFHF Wal-Mart / WMT General Electric / GE Heritage-Crystal / HCCI UPS / UPS Pre-Paid Legal / PPD Walt Disney / DIS Anheuser-Busch / BUD
Market Value ($mn) 68 309 8,715 186,299 160,689 121 64,494 520 63,212 82,968
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 29.79 -6% 11.91 -3% 394.41 6% 50.22 4% 15.03 4% 8.51 6% 65.10 14% 52.43 15% 33.05 5% 51.70 8%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 229 0% 3,505 0% 279 0% 883 2% 3,644 0% 240 >100% 707 0% 15 new 1,490 0% 120 71%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 10% <1% 14% 3% 1% 7% <1% 3% <1% 4% 2% <1% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1% 3% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 15x 19x 15x 12x 10x 16x 13x 11x 14x 12x 33x 25x 19x 16x 8x 8x 16x 14x 17x 14x
Price/ Tang. Book .7x 1.0x 1.3x 3.8x 4.0x 1.9x >9.9x 7.7x >9.9x n/m
Markel acquired UBSH shares in connection with a merger of a Markel subsidiary with First Market Bank, a private company in which Markel was a shareholder.
Top Holdings of Markel Gayner – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A CarMax / KMX Fairfax Financial / FRFHF Diageo / DEO Brookfield Asset / BAM General Electric / GE Walt Disney / DIS Marriott / MAR UPS / UPS Wal-Mart / WMT
Market Value ($mn) 192,655 4,824 8,715 42,137 14,644 160,689 63,212 12,180 64,494 186,299
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 116,700 -3% 21.56 8% 394.41 6% 67.27 7% 25.47 13% 15.03 4% 33.05 5% 33.57 12% 65.10 14% 50.22 4%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2 0% 5,271 -1% 279 0% 1,256 0% 3,104 0% 3,644 0% 1,490 0% 1,422 0% 707 0% 883 2%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 15% 2% 7% 1% 7% <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 4% <1% 3% <1% 3% <1% 3% <1% 3%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Pre-Paid Legal / PPD
Cintas / CTAS
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 19x 18x 15x 14x 10x 16x 15x 13x 25x 20x 14x 12x 16x 14x 30x 24x 19x 16x 13x 11x
Price/ Tang. Book 2.1x 2.5x 1.3x n/m 1.7x 4.0x >9.9x n/m >9.9x 3.8x
*, **
$1.5 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
56%
Median market value
$17 billion
Average market value
$42 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tangible book
2.6x
Other 24% Financial 35% Consumer Non-Cyclical 9%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**
Services 32%
A large portion of Markel Corp.’s asset value may be attributed to holdings that are not publicly traded and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 46 of 175
Maverick (Lee Ainsle) Lee Ainsle worked for Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management prior to founding long/short hedge fund Maverick. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Maverick Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Market Value ($mn) 25,142 10,504 1,244 128,413 3,158 62,458 51 11,069 9,120
Company / Ticker Corning / GLW Marvell Technology / MRVL Children's Place / PLCE Pfizer / PFE Skyworks Solutions / SWKS QUALCOMM / QCOM Bluefly / BFLY Citrix Systems / CTXS Stanley Black Decker / SWK
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 16.10 0% 16.16 3% 44.84 2% 15.92 12% 17.68 5% 38.91 18% 2.08 4% 59.21 40% 55.05 9%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from ('000) Mar. 31 20,339 13% 20,578 16% 2,075 New 23,218 12% 12,956 New 10,136 19% 3,704 0% 5,212 new 4,724 >100%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 1% 4% 3% 4% 7% 1% <1% 5% 7% 3% <1% 5% 15% <1% 3% 4% 3% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 7x 8x 10x 10x 14x 13x 7x 7x 15x 12x 16x 15x n/a n/a 31x 27x 15x 12x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.5x 4.2x 2.0x n/m 4.4x 4.1x 1.6x 9.1x n/m
Top Holdings of Maverick Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 62,458 128,413 10,504 25,142 228,062 11,069 6,007 6,725 8,854 9,120
Company / Ticker QUALCOMM / QCOM Pfizer / PFE Marvell Technology / MRVL Corning / GLW Apple / AAPL Citrix Systems / CTXS Apollo Group / APOL Expedia / EXPE Macy's / M Stanley Black Decker / SWK
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 38.91 18% 15.92 12% 16.16 3% 16.10 0% 249.64 -1% 59.21 40% 40.72 -4% 23.64 26% 20.97 17% 55.05 9%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 5% <1% 5% 3% 4% 1% 4% <1% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 15x 7x 7x 10x 10x 7x 8x 17x 14x 31x 27x 8x 7x 14x 12x 11x 10x 15x 12x
Price/ Tang. Book 4.1x n/m 4.2x 1.5x 5.4x 9.1x 7.9x n/m >9.9x n/m
Sold Out Positions
Adobe Systems / ADBE Bank of NY Mellon / BK Children's Place / PLCE Citigroup / C Citrix Systems / CTXS Comcast / CMCSA DeVry / DV Education Management / EDMC Invesco / IVZ Kohl's / KSS Medidata Solutions / MDSO
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 10,136 19% 23,218 12% 20,578 16% 20,339 13% 1,310 -15% 5,212 new 7,484 32% 11,171 7% 12,494 2% 4,724 >100%
Skyworks Solutions / SWKS Teva Pharma / TEVA Toyota / TM UnitedHealth / UNH Whiting Petroleum / WLL
*
Portfolio size
Abercrombie & Fitch / ANF AthenaHealth / ATHN Bank of America / BAC Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A Carnival Corp. / CCL Cypress Bioscience / CYPB Dell / DELL Discovery Comms / DISCA DISH Network / DISH FedEx / FDX Health Net / HNT
Sector Weightings $8.2 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
$9.6 billion
Average market value
$29 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
2.5x
Technology 36% Financial 14%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
*
Other 20%
38%
Median market value
Hewlett-Packard / HPQ Mead Johnson / MJN Men's Wearhouse / MW NewStar Financial / NEWS Northwest Bancorp / NWBI Office Depot / ODP Oracle / ORCL PNC Financial / PNC Raytheon / RTN Visa / V
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Services 30%
August 27, 2010 – Page 47 of 175
MHR (Mark Rachesky) Mark Rachesky worked for Carl Icahn from 1990 to 1996. He subsequently founded MHR Fund Management, which focuses on inefficient market sectors, including special situation equities and distressed investments. He runs a concentrated portfolio.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of MHR Fund Management
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 872 873 1,063 4,047 87 1,560 27 840 478 66
Company / Ticker Leap Wireless / LEAP Lions Gate / LGF Key Energy Services / KEG Pride International / PDE Seahawk Drilling / HAWK Loral Space / LORL Omega Navigation / ONAV L-1 Identity / ID M & F Worldwide / MFW Rand Logistics / RLOG
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 11.13 -14% 6.41 -8% 8.46 -8% 23.04 3% 7.33 -65% 51.64 21% 1.40 -28% 9.02 10% 24.70 -9% 4.90 -4%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 15,538 0% 23,165 0% 16,666 0% 12,832 0% 1,174 37% 8,130 0% 1,358 0% 6,936 43% 827 0% 462 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 20% 12% 17% 11% 13% 10% 7% 21% 10% <1% 27% 30% 7% <1% 7% 4% 4% 1% 3% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/m n/m n/m n/m >99x 14x 15x 8x n/m n/m 14x 7x n/a n/a >99x 56x 4x 3x 20x 13x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m n/m 3.3x .9x .2x 3.6x .2x n/m n/m 3.8x
Top Holdings of MHR Fund Management – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 1,560 4,047 872 873 1,063 3,178 840 478 87 66
Company / Ticker Loral Space / LORL Pride International / PDE Leap Wireless / LEAP Lions Gate / LGF Key Energy Services / KEG MetroPCS / PCS L-1 Identity / ID M & F Worldwide / MFW Seahawk Drilling / HAWK Rand Logistics / RLOG
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 51.64 21% 23.04 3% 11.13 -14% 6.41 -8% 8.46 -8% 8.98 10% 9.02 10% 24.70 -9% 7.33 -65% 4.90 -4%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 8,130 0% 12,832 0% 15,538 0% 23,165 0% 16,666 0% 12,820 0% 6,936 43% 827 0% 1,174 37% 462 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 27% 30% 7% 21% 20% 12% 17% 11% 13% 10% 4% 8% 7% 4% 4% 1% 10% <1% 3% <1%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
None
None
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 14x 7x 15x 8x n/m n/m n/m n/m >99x 14x 14x 10x >99x 56x 4x 3x n/m n/m 20x 13x
Price/ Tang. Book 3.6x .9x n/m n/m 3.3x n/m n/m n/m .2x 3.8x
*
$1.4 billion
Energy 32%
100%
Median market value
$840 million
Average market value
$1.4 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
11x
Median P / tangible book
3.2x
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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Technology 35%
Services 33%
August 27, 2010 – Page 48 of 175
MSD Capital (Glenn Fuhrman and John Phelan) Glenn Fuhrman and John Phelan are co-managing partners and co-founders of MSD, having teamed up with Michael Dell to manage his personal capital in the late 1990s. Fuhrman previously spent ten years at Goldman Sachs, where he was head of the Special Investments Group. Phelan previously spent five years at Eddie Lampert’s ESL Investments.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of MSD Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Market Value ($mn) 261 605 1,258 1,633 615 574 418 3,182 865
Company / Ticker School Specialty / SCHS Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC Wright Express / WXS EchoStar / SATS Tyler Tech / TYL DineEquity / DIN Asbury Automotive / ABG Nalco Holding / NLC Sunstone Hotel / SHO
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 13.86 -23% 13.23 3% 32.87 11% 19.18 1% 17.73 14% 32.03 15% 12.76 21% 23.01 12% 8.78 -12%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,785 0% 2,565 new 1,737 6% 3,671 0% 4,050 0% 2,512 0% 3,686 0% 2,065 0% 4,159 -4%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 15% 7% 6% 6% 5% 10% 4% 12% 12% 12% 14% 14% 11% 8% 1% 8% 4% 6%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 17x 10x 5x 5x 13x 12x 29x 48x 24x 21x 9x 8x 9x 7x 15x 13x n/m n/m
Price/ Tang. Book n/m n/m 8.6x .6x >9.9x n/m 1.7x n/m 1.3x
Top Holdings of MSD Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 574 615 1,633 1,258 883 3,182 418 261 928 865
Company / Ticker DineEquity / DIN Tyler Tech / TYL EchoStar / SATS Wright Express / WXS Energy XXI / EXXI Nalco Holding / NLC Asbury Automotive / ABG School Specialty / SCHS Transatlantic Petro / TAT Sunstone Hotel / SHO
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 32.03 15% 17.73 14% 19.18 1% 32.87 11% 17.44 11% 23.01 12% 12.76 21% 13.86 -23% 3.04 -4% 8.78 -12%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,512 0% 4,050 0% 3,671 0% 1,737 6% 3,226 0% 2,065 0% 3,686 0% 2,785 0% 12,500 -24% 4,159 -4%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 14% 14% 12% 12% 4% 12% 5% 10% 6% 10% 1% 8% 11% 8% 15% 7% 4% 7% 4% 6%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC
Dollar Thrifty Auto / DTG
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
Price/ Tang. Book n/m >9.9x .6x 8.6x 2.1x n/m 1.7x n/m 4.1x 1.3x
*
Other 14%
$578 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 9x 8x 24x 21x 29x 48x 13x 12x 65x 29x 15x 13x 9x 7x 17x 10x n/m 11x n/m n/m
94%
Median market value
$874 million
Average market value
$1.1 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
2.1x
Energy 16%
Services 50%
Technology 19%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 49 of 175
Pabrai Funds (Mohnish Pabrai) Mohnish Pabrai is founder and managing partner of Pabrai Investment Funds, a family of value-oriented investment partnerships with a fee structure similar to that of the Buffett Partnerships of the 1950s and ‘60s, i.e. no management fee and 25% performance fee above 6% annual hurdle rate. Pabrai Funds have a long-term track record vastly superior to that of the S&P 500 Index. Pabrai follows an investment strategy built upon the principles of Graham, Buffett and Greenblatt.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Pabrai Funds
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 8,715 92 1,616 7,082 693 44,392 76,435 128,742 230 4,956
Company / Ticker Fairfax Financial / FRFHF Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL CapitalSource / CSE Brookfield Prop. / BPO Cresud / CRESY Potash / POT Goldman Sachs / GS Wells Fargo / WFC Harvest Natural / HNR Leucadia National / LUK
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 394.41 6% 4.97 -9% 5.00 5% 14.12 1% 13.96 15% 149.67 74% 148.24 13% 24.60 -4% 6.85 -7% 20.37 4%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 97 20% 2,003 0% 2,813 new 2,359 0% 1,719 0% 343 3% 111 0% 389 4% 4,490 -6% 750 -5%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 13% 11% 3% <1% 5% <1% 11% 3% 8% <1% 17% <1% 6% <1% 3% 13% 10% <1% 5%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 10x 16x 4x 4x n/m 15x 11x 12x 15x 18x 27x 20x 10x 8x 12x 9x 6x 4x n/a n/a
Price/ Tang. Book 1.3x 1.1x .9x 1.1x 1.5x 6.9x 1.3x 2.2x .8x 1.3x
Top Holdings of Pabrai Funds – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 44,392 8,715 7,082 230 693 300 76,435 4,956 1,616 1,009
Company / Ticker Potash / POT Fairfax Financial / FRFHF Brookfield Prop. / BPO Harvest Natural / HNR Cresud / CRESY Air Transport / ATSG Goldman Sachs / GS Leucadia National / LUK CapitalSource / CSE International Coal / ICO
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 149.67 74% 394.41 6% 14.12 1% 6.85 -7% 13.96 15% 4.71 -1% 148.24 13% 20.37 4% 5.00 5% 4.95 29%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 343 3% 97 20% 2,359 0% 4,490 -6% 1,719 0% 4,209 -22% 111 0% 750 -5% 2,813 new 2,486 -1%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 17% <1% 13% <1% 11% 13% 10% 3% 8% 7% 7% <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 5% 1% 4%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
CapitalSource / CSE
Interactive Brokers / IBKR Teck Cominco / TCK
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
Financial 26%
86%
Median market value
$2.2 billion
Average market value
$29 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
12x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
1.3x
Other 38%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Price/ Tang. Book 6.9x 1.3x 1.1x .8x 1.5x 1.7x 1.3x 1.3x .9x 1.4x
*
$298 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 27x 20x 10x 16x 11x 12x 6x 4x 15x 18x 6x 5x 10x 8x n/a n/a n/m 15x 20x 8x
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Energy 14%
Basic Materials 21%
August 27, 2010 – Page 50 of 175
Paulson & Co. (John Paulson) John Paulson founded his firm with $2 million in 1994. He gained notoriety by profiting hugely from the credit crisis of ‘08. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Paulson & Co.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 1,707 243 129,136 586 2,618 5,644 884 299,856 151 1,437
Company / Ticker American Capital / ACAS McClatchy / MNI Bank of America / BAC Strategic Hotels / BEE Popular / BPOP Sybase / SY inVentiv Health / VTIV Exxon Mobil / XOM Cheniere Energy Inc. / LNG Mirant / MIR
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 5.01 4% 2.87 -21% 12.87 -10% 3.87 -12% 2.56 -4% 64.98 1% 26.06 2% 58.89 3% 2.62 -7% 9.87 -7%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 43,725 new 5,000 new 207,794 17% 8,000 new 66,667 new 7,000 new 3,300 new 9,169 new 7,461 0% 18,203 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 13% <1% 6% <1% 2% 11% 5% <1% 7% <1% 8% 2% 10% <1% <1% 2% 13% <1% 13% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 9x 8x 5x 4x 14x 8x n/m n/m n/m 13x n/a n/a n/a n/a 10x 9x n/m n/m 6x 37x
Price/ Tang. Book .5x n/m 1.2x 1.8x .9x >9.9x n/m 2.1x n/m .3x
Top Holdings of Paulson & Co. – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 50,567 129,136 16,039 108,651 147,266 8,944 17,257 49,985 11,998 299,856
Company / Ticker SPDR Gold Trust / GLD Bank of America / BAC AngloGold Ashanti / AU Citigroup / C JPMorgan Chase / JPM Hartford Financial / HIG Capital One / COF Comcast / CMCSA SunTrust Banks / STI Exxon Mobil / XOM
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 119.97 -1% 12.87 -10% 43.85 2% 3.75 0% 37.14 1% 20.13 -9% 37.78 -6% 17.81 3% 24.00 3% 58.89 3%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 7% 16% 2% 11% 12% 8% 2% 8% <1% 4% 10% 4% 5% 3% 2% 3% 6% 3% <1% 2%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/a n/a 14x 8x 29x 17x 10x 8x 10x 8x 9x 5x 8x 9x 14x 12x n/m 29x 10x 9x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.3x 1.2x 6.0x .9x 1.5x .5x 1.6x n/m 1.2x 2.1x
Sold Out Positions
Airgas / ARG Alcon / ACL American Capital / ACAS Caseys General / CASY Exxon Mobil / XOM General Growth / GGP Goldman Sachs / GS inVentiv Health / VTIV
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from ('000) Mar. 31 31,500 0% 207,794 17% 43,750 0% 506,700 0% 25,728 0% 44,000 >100% 20,993 0% 44,000 0% 30,381 0% 9,169 new
Mariner Energy / ME McClatchy / MNI PMI Group / PMI Popular / BPOP Strategic Hotels / BEE Sybase / SY Talecris Bio / TLCR
*
Portfolio size
First Midwest Banc / FMBI
Sector Weightings Other 16%
$23 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
*
64%
Median market value
$5.7 billion
Average market value
$24 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tangible book
1.8x
Services 12% Financial 58% Basic Materials 13%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 51 of 175
Pennant (Alan Fournier) Alan Fournier started his career at Sanford Bernstein in 1988 and became a partner in 1990. He also worked for Rich Pzena’s firm and David Tepper’s Appaloosa, where he was responsible for global equities. Fournier founded Pennant in 2001.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Pennant Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 19,943 6,548 1,527 8,307 3,011 87 228,062 299,856 2,344 35,538
Company / Ticker WellPoint / WLP DaVita / DVA Live Nation / LYV Delta Air Lines / DAL Old Republic / ORI Seahawk Drilling / HAWK Apple / AAPL Exxon Mobil / XOM Omnicare / OCR UnitedHealth / UNH
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 49.89 2% 63.82 2% 8.80 -16% 10.53 -10% 12.49 3% 7.33 -65% 249.64 -1% 58.89 3% 19.84 -16% 31.61 11%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,734 8% 1,898 0% 2,735 new 2,876 >100% 8,305 24% 583 0% 200 new 240 new 2,445 57% 3,534 9%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 5% 2% 4% 2% <1% <1% 1% 3% 4% 5% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 2% 2% <1% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 8x 8x 15x 14x n/m 73x 7x 5x 37x 12x n/m n/m 17x 14x 10x 9x 10x 9x 9x 9x
Price/ Tang. Book 8.3x n/m n/m n/m .8x .2x 5.4x 2.1x n/m >9.9x
Top Holdings of Pennant Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 2,830 19,943 3,210 6,548 62,458 126,959 35,538 1,085 3,011 19,104
Company / Ticker TransDigm / TDG WellPoint / WLP Abercrombie & Fitch / ANF DaVita / DVA QUALCOMM / QCOM Cisco Systems / CSCO UnitedHealth / UNH PHH / PHH Old Republic / ORI Covidien / COV
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 57.35 12% 49.89 2% 36.39 19% 63.82 2% 38.91 18% 22.23 4% 31.61 11% 19.56 3% 12.49 3% 38.09 -5%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 7% 7% <1% 5% 4% 5% 2% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4% 10% 4% 3% 4% <1% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 18x 16x 8x 8x 21x 15x 15x 14x 16x 15x 13x 11x 9x 9x n/m 7x 37x 12x 12x 11x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 8.3x 1.8x n/m 4.1x 5.2x >9.9x 9.6x .8x >9.9x
Sold Out Positions
Apple / AAPL Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Exxon Mobil / XOM Live Nation / LYV Macy's / M
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 3,573 -1% 2,734 8% 3,569 -8% 1,898 0% 3,065 -16% 5,296 -18% 3,534 9% 5,407 0% 8,305 24% 2,554 0%
McDermott / MDR
*
Portfolio size
Alliance Holdings / AHGP Alliance Resource / ARLP AMR Corp. / AMR Applied Materials / AMAT Broadcom / BRCM
Sector Weightings
*
$2.9 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
44%
Median market value
$4.9 billion
Average market value
$29 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
12x
Median P/E (next FY)
10x
Median P / tangible book
2.5x
*
Other 39%
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Health Care 17%
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Citigroup / C FreightCar America / RAIL Helix Energy / HLX MI Developments / MIM UAL Corp. / UAUA
Financial 28%
Technology 17%
August 27, 2010 – Page 52 of 175
Pershing Square (Bill Ackman) Bill Ackman, managing member of Pershing Square Capital, is a value-oriented activist investor. He runs a concentrated portfolio with the largest ten equity investments accounting for the vast majority of his long book. Before the credit crunch developed into a full-blown economic crisis, Ackman made a strong case for why MBIA (MBI) and AMBAC (ABK) were overvalued and fundamentally more distressed than the market had judged at the time. On the long side, Ackman has approached large companies, including McDonald’s (MCD) and Target (TGT), with proposals for unlocking value.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Pershing Square
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Market Value ($mn) 19,818 108,651 50,752 73 4,431 833 395 2,328 37,684
Company / Ticker Automatic Data / ADP Citigroup / C Kraft Foods / KFT Borders Group / BGP General Growth / GGP Greenlight Re / GLRE Landry's Restaurants / LNY Corrections Corp. / CXW Target / TGT
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 39.40 -2% 3.75 0% 29.10 4% 1.21 -9% 13.96 5% 22.84 -9% 24.31 -1% 21.07 10% 52.15 6%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 8,270 new 146,500 new 33,651 3% 10,598 0% 23,954 0% 250 0% 1,554 0% 10,937 0% 20,680 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 2% 9% <1% 15% 2% 27% 18% <1% 8% 9% <1% <1% 10% 1% 10% 6% 3% 30%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 15x 10x 8x 14x 13x n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/m 69x 16x 16x 13x 12x
Price/ Tang. Book 3.6x .9x n/m .8x 7.4x 1.2x 1.5x 1.6x 2.5x
Top Holdings of Pershing Square – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 37,684 50,752 108,651 4,431 19,818 2,328 19,764 395 73 833
Company / Ticker Target / TGT Kraft Foods / KFT Citigroup / C General Growth / GGP Automatic Data / ADP Corrections Corp. / CXW Yum! Brands / YUM Landry's Restaurants / LNY Borders Group / BGP Greenlight Re / GLRE
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 52.15 6% 29.10 4% 3.75 0% 13.96 5% 39.40 -2% 21.07 10% 42.32 8% 24.31 -1% 1.21 -9% 22.84 -9%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from ('000) Mar. 31 20,680 0% 33,651 3% 146,500 new 23,954 0% 8,270 new 10,937 0% 1,907 -87% 1,554 0% 10,598 0% 250 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 3% 30% 2% 27% <1% 15% 8% 9% 2% 9% 10% 6% <1% 2% 10% 1% 18% <1% <1% <1%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Automatic Data / ADP Citigroup / C
None
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 13x 12x 14x 13x 10x 8x n/a n/a 16x 15x 16x 16x 17x 15x n/m 69x n/a n/a n/a n/a
Price/ Tang. Book 2.5x n/m .9x 7.4x 3.6x 1.6x >9.9x 1.5x .8x 1.2x
*
Financial 15%
$3.6 billion 100%
Median market value
$6.6 billion
Average market value
$23 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tangible book
1.5x
Consumer Non-Cyclical 27%
Services 58%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 53 of 175
Sageview (Ed Gilhuly and Scott Stuart) Ed Gilhuly and Scott Stuart were classmates at Stanford Business School. After graduating in 1986, Gilhuly joined Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. in San Francisco, while Stuart started with KKR in New York. Each became a partner of KKR at the end of 1994. They continued serving in leadership roles at KKR until 2005, at which time they teamed up to start Sageview. The firm follows a highly concentrated, value-oriented investment approach. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Sageview Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 1,073 10,893 16,869 8,127 435 601 26,045 1,738 320 193
Company / Ticker Arris Group / ARRS Symantec / SYMC Charles Schwab / SCHW Life Technologies / LIFE Huron Consulting / HURN Financial Engines / FNGN Baxter International / BAX SandRidge Energy / SD Ituran Location / ITRN Rural/Metro Corp. / RURL
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 8.57 -16% 13.80 -1% 14.13 0% 44.33 -6% 19.70 1% 14.52 7% 44.57 10% 4.29 -26% 13.65 -9% 7.63 -6%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 3,173 new 992 new 1,125 new 2,545 2% 201 new 140 new 76 new 15 new 100 0% 14 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 3% 13% <1% 7% <1% 8% 1% 54% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 10x 9x 11x 9x 25x 16x 13x 12x 14x 9x 50x 39x 11x 11x 11x 13x 14x 13x 14x 11x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.8x n/m 3.2x n/m n/m 5.9x 7.6x n/m 2.6x n/m
Top Holdings of Sageview Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 8,127 3,804 1,073 16,869 10,893 435 26,045 601 320 193
Company / Ticker Life Technologies / LIFE Hologic / HOLX Arris Group / ARRS Charles Schwab / SCHW Symantec / SYMC Huron Consulting / HURN Baxter International / BAX Financial Engines / FNGN Ituran Location / ITRN Rural/Metro Corp. / RURL
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 44.33 -6% 14.68 5% 8.57 -16% 14.13 0% 13.80 -1% 19.70 1% 44.57 10% 14.52 7% 13.65 -9% 7.63 -6%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 1% 54% <1% 14% 3% 13% <1% 8% <1% 7% <1% 2% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 13x 12x 13x 11x 10x 9x 25x 16x 11x 9x 14x 9x 11x 11x 50x 39x 14x 13x 14x 11x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m n/m 1.8x 3.2x n/m n/m 7.6x 5.9x 2.6x n/m
Sold Out Positions
Arris Group / ARRS Baxter International / BAX Charles Schwab / SCHW Financial Engines / FNGN
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 2,545 2% 1,940 -14% 3,173 new 1,125 new 992 new 201 new 76 new 140 new 100 0% 14 0%
Huron Consulting / HURN SandRidge Energy / SD Symantec / SYMC
*
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Pioneer Natural / PXD SeaChange / SEAC
Sector Weightings Financial 9%
$209 million 100%
Median market value
$1.7 billion
Average market value
$5.9 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
11x
Median P / tangible book
2.6x
*
Other 3%
Technology 20%
Health Care 69%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 54 of 175
Scout (James Crichton) James Crichton co-founded Scout with Adam Weiss in 1999. The firm runs a concentrated portfolio of undervalued equities.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Scout Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker SPDR Gold Trust / GLD Visa / V McDonald's / MCD MasterCard / MA Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Tyco International / TYC Sensata Tech / ST Apollo Group / APOL Research In Motion / RIMM Citigroup / C
Market Value ($mn) 50,567 58,890 77,782 27,005 14,585 19,261 2,961 6,007 26,918 108,651
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 119.97 -1% 70.10 -1% 73.08 11% 206.37 3% 29.02 12% 38.70 10% 17.31 n/m 40.72 -4% 48.72 -1% 3.75 0%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 830 new 1,060 new 2,629 19% 455 new 12,350 10% 4,000 0% 3,420 21% 480 new 370 new 7,500 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 12% <1% 6% 2% 23% <1% 10% 2% 4% <1% 1% <1% 1% <1% 2%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/a n/a 18x 15x 16x 15x 15x 13x 16x 16x 15x 12x 10x 9x 8x 7x 9x 8x 10x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.3x >9.9x 7.3x 7.8x n/m >9.9x n/m 7.9x 4.1x .9x
Top Holdings of Scout Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 14,585 77,782 19,261 5,095 50,567 27,005 30,665 58,890 2,961 2,610
Company / Ticker Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE McDonald's / MCD Tyco International / TYC Verisk Analytics / VRSK SPDR Gold Trust / GLD MasterCard / MA eBay / EBAY Visa / V Sensata Tech / ST Lamar Advertising / LAMR
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 29.02 12% 73.08 11% 38.70 10% 28.47 -5% 119.97 -1% 206.37 3% 23.37 19% 70.10 -1% 17.31 n/m 28.28 15%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 2% 23% <1% 12% <1% 10% 3% 8% <1% 6% <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 5% 2% 4% 2% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 16x 16x 15x 15x 12x 21x 19x n/a n/a 15x 13x 14x 13x 18x 15x 10x 9x n/m n/m
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 7.3x >9.9x n/m 1.3x 7.8x 4.0x >9.9x n/m n/m
Sold Out Positions
American Express / AXP Apollo Group / APOL Citigroup / C Goldman Sachs / GS MasterCard / MA
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 12,350 10% 2,629 19% 4,000 0% 4,611 -23% 830 new 455 new 3,300 -52% 1,060 new 3,420 21% 2,000 -13%
Research In Motion / RIMM SPDR Gold Trust / GLD TransDigm / TDG Visa / V
*
Portfolio size
Amazon.com / AMZN Bank of America / BAC C.H. Robinson / CHRW CarMax / KMX Comcast / CMCSA
Sector Weightings $1.6 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
$20 billion
Average market value
$35 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tangible book
2.6x
Services 33%
Consumer Non-Cyclical 23%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
*
Other 19%
82%
Median market value
Home Depot / HD Netflix / NFLX Popular / BPOP Wells Fargo / WFC
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Financial 25%
August 27, 2010 – Page 55 of 175
Second Curve (Tom Brown) Tom Brown was a sell-side analyst focused on the financial services industry in the 1980s and 1990s, working at Smith Barney, PaineWebber and Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette. In 1998, he joined Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management. He struck out on his own two years later, founding Second Curve Capital, a value-oriented firm with a focus on the financial sector.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Second Curve
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 25 909 185 481 1,798 141 49 694 201 79
Company / Ticker TN Commerce Banc / TNCC Ocwen Financial / OCN Taylor Capital / TAYC West. Alliance Banc / WAL Synovus Financial / SNV Primus Guaranty / PRS Banner Corp. / BANR Altisource Portfolio / ASPS CoBiz Financial / COBZ Rodman & Renshaw / RODM
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 4.37 -32% 9.07 -11% 10.10 -22% 6.55 -9% 2.29 -10% 3.71 1% 2.10 6% 27.51 11% 5.46 -17% 2.27 -21%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 584 new 2,532 >100% 1,864 40% 3,710 59% 14,794 11% 6,360 9% 2,000 new 371 >100% 2,500 25% 50 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 10% 1% 3% 9% 10% 8% 5% 10% 2% 14% 17% 10% 9% 2% 1% 4% 7% 6% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 7x 7x 12x 6x n/m n/m n/m 21x n/m n/m n/a n/a n/m n/m n/a n/a n/m 20x 7x 4x
Price/ Tang. Book .3x 1.2x 1.2x 1.2x .7x n/m .2x >9.9x .9x 1.4x
Top Holdings of Second Curve – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 1,798 481 141 909 914 185 228 201 475 694
Company / Ticker Synovus Financial / SNV West. Alliance Banc / WAL Primus Guaranty / PRS Ocwen Financial / OCN Wintrust Financial / WTFC Taylor Capital / TAYC CompuCredit / CCRT CoBiz Financial / COBZ Encore Capital / ECPG Altisource Portfolio / ASPS
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 2.29 -10% 6.55 -9% 3.71 1% 9.07 -11% 29.38 -12% 10.10 -22% 4.76 20% 5.46 -17% 19.95 -3% 27.51 11%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 2% 14% 5% 10% 17% 10% 3% 9% 2% 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 3% 5% 1% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/m n/m n/m 21x n/a n/a 12x 6x 25x 13x n/m n/m n/m n/a n/m 20x 11x 9x n/a n/a
Price/ Tang. Book .7x 1.2x n/m 1.2x 1.1x 1.2x 1.7x .9x 1.9x >9.9x
Sold Out Positions
Banner Corp. / BANR Capital One / COF CapitalSource / CSE
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 14,794 11% 3,710 59% 6,360 9% 2,532 >100% 778 -15% 1,864 40% 3,720 39% 2,500 25% 660 1% 371 >100%
First Merchants / FRME Rodman & Renshaw / RODM TN Commerce Banc / TNCC *
Portfolio size
First Busey / BUSE Nara Bancorp / NARA Regions Financial / RF
Sector Weightings
Services 4%
$246 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
*
82%
Median market value
$346 million
Average market value
$2.0 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tangible book
1.1x
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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Financial 96%
August 27, 2010 – Page 56 of 175
Shumway Capital (Chris Shumway) Chris Shumway is another “Tiger Cub,” having previously worked for Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management. Shumway follows a value-oriented investment approach, albeit with large portfolio turnover and only modest concentration. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Shumway Capital
1 2 3 4 5
Market Value ($mn) 26,045 28,596 5,593 36,949 1,527
Company / Ticker Baxter International / BAX Baidu.com / BIDU Illumina / ILMN Union Pacific / UNP Live Nation / LYV
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 44.57 10% 82.17 21% 45.00 3% 74.26 7% 8.80 -16%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 4,036 new 3,604 >100% 2,695 >100% 1,897 68% 4,933 new
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 6% 1% 10% 2% 4% <1% 5% 3% 1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 11x 11x 59x 38x 46x 34x 14x 12x n/m 73x
Price/ Tang. Book 7.6x >9.9x 8.0x 2.1x n/m
Top Holdings of Shumway Capital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Market Value ($mn) 28,596 128,413 26,045 4,104 228,062 47,012 19,578 36,949
Company / Ticker Baidu.com / BIDU Pfizer / PFE Baxter International / BAX Equinix / EQIX Apple / AAPL Teva Pharma / TEVA Las Vegas Sands / LVS Union Pacific / UNP
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 82.17 21% 15.92 12% 44.57 10% 90.02 11% 249.64 -1% 50.28 -3% 29.63 34% 74.26 7%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 3,604 >100% 13,762 -35% 4,036 new 1,948 -47% 678 -79% 3,216 -51% 5,362 0% 1,897 68%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 1% 10% <1% 7% <1% 6% 4% 6% <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 5% <1% 5%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
American Eagle / AEO Ameriprise Financial / AMP Baxter International / BAX Cephalon / CEPH D.R. Horton / DHI El Paso Corp. / EP Freeport-McMoRan / FCX Hansen Natural / HANS KB Home / KBH Lennar / LEN Live Nation / LYV MercadoLibre / MELI Netflix / NFLX Pulte Homes / PHM RadioShack / RSH Sirius XM Radio / SIRI
Amazon.com / AMZN Annaly Capital / NLY Bank of America / BAC C.R. Bard / BCR Cablevision / CVC CME Group / CME Comcast / CMCSA Community Health / CYH Credit Suisse / CS Ctrip.com / CTRP Discovery Comms / DISCA Gap / GPS Goldman Sachs / GS Hartford Financial / HIG Illinois Tool Works / ITW Ingersoll-Rand / IR Johnson & Johnson / JNJ
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 59x 38x 7x 7x 11x 11x 89x 36x 17x 14x 11x 10x 42x 28x 14x 12x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x n/m 7.6x 4.9x 5.4x >9.9x 3.5x 2.1x
JPMorgan Chase / JPM Juniper Networks / JNPR Lab Corp. of America / LH Liberty Global / LBTYA Lowe's / LOW Omnicom / OMC PepsiCo / PEP Quest Diagnostics / DGX salesforce.com / CRM Sigma-Aldrich / SIAL St. Jude Medical / STJ Staples / SPLS Urban Outfitters / URBN Visa / V Walt Disney / DIS Waters / WAT Yum! Brands / YUM
*
$3.0 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Other 28%
58%
Median market value
$12 billion
Average market value
$33 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tangible book
3.1x
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Services 22%
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Health Care 27%
Technology 23%
August 27, 2010 – Page 57 of 175
Southeastern (Mason Hawkins) Mason Hawkins is chairman and CEO of Southeastern Asset Management, a firm he founded in 1975. Southeastern serves as investment adviser to the Longleaf Partners Funds, a family of value-oriented mutual funds. The firm has $22 billion of assets under management, including $13 billion in separately managed accounts.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Southeastern
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 1,967 8,397 833 3,540 1,781 13,335 2,663 23,636 941 574
Company / Ticker Service Corp. / SCI Cemex / CX Texas Industries / TXI Martin Marietta / MLM Level 3 Comms / LVLT Chesapeake Energy / CHK tw telecom / TWTC Dell / DELL Fair Isaac / FICO DineEquity / DIN
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 7.97 8% 8.41 -13% 29.98 1% 77.76 -8% 1.07 -2% 20.38 -3% 17.57 5% 12.07 0% 22.55 3% 32.03 15%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 29,551 >100% 133,128 1% 4,550 23% 2,629 new 484,232 5% 80,813 1% 28,281 13% 142,216 2% 9,390 0% 3,218 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 12% 1% 13% 6% 16% <1% 6% 1% 29% 3% 12% 8% 19% 2% 7% 9% 23% 1% 18% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 14x 13x n/m 49x n/m >99x 36x 23x n/m n/m 7x 7x 10x 34x 10x 8x 15x 14x 9x 8x
Price/ Tang. Book 9.9x .5x 1.1x 4.8x n/m 1.1x 4.9x >9.9x n/m n/m
Top Holdings of Southeastern – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 33,811 19,764 23,636 13,335 63,212 6,722 8,397 9,955 29,926 6,280
Company / Ticker DIRECTV / DTV Yum! Brands / YUM Dell / DELL Chesapeake Energy / CHK Walt Disney / DIS Pioneer Natural / PXD Cemex / CX Aon Corp. / AON Bank of NY Mellon / BK Liberty Interactive / LINTA
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 38.05 12% 42.32 8% 12.07 0% 20.38 -3% 33.05 5% 57.95 -3% 8.41 -13% 36.91 -1% 24.65 0% 10.50 0%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 7% 12% 10% 10% 7% 9% 12% 8% 2% 8% 18% 6% 13% 6% 8% 4% 2% 4% 10% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 12x 17x 15x 10x 8x 7x 7x 16x 14x 30x 20x n/m 49x 11x 11x 11x 9x 12x 15x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m >9.9x >9.9x 1.1x >9.9x 1.8x .5x n/m 3.6x n/m
Sold Out Positions
Campbell Soup / CPB Lowe's / LOW Martin Marietta / MLM Shanda Games / GAME
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from ('000) Mar. 31 64,017 -16% 48,758 -4% 142,216 2% 80,813 1% 47,232 -14% 20,322 -6% 133,128 1% 21,834 23% 29,369 89% 57,414 -16%
Shanda Interactive / SNDA Verizon / VZ Vodafone / VOD
*
Portfolio size
Discovery Comms / DISCA Ingersoll-Rand / IR Marriott / MAR
Sector Weightings $20 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Other 25%
69%
Median market value
$6.3 billion
Average market value
$20 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tangible book
2.1x
*
Services 48% Financial 13%
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
*
Energy 14%
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August 27, 2010 – Page 58 of 175
Third Point (Dan Loeb) Loeb is the founder of long/short activist fund Third Point, which has amassed a respectable long-term investment record. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Third Point
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 48,322 164 42 7,618 2,348 2,830 196 8,854 325 6,280
Company / Ticker Alcon / ACL Xerium Technologies / XRM BioFuel Energy / BIOF CIT Group / CIT Health Net / HNT TransDigm / TDG DepoMed / DEPO Macy's / M ViewPoint Financial / VPFG Liberty Interactive / LINTA
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 160.95 9% 10.97 -22% 1.29 -3% 38.04 12% 24.10 -1% 57.35 12% 3.73 33% 20.97 17% 9.31 -6% 10.50 0%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 700 new 1,295 new 5,579 0% 2,447 4% 3,000 0% 1,800 0% 6,790 0% 2,600 >100% 775 new 5,000 4%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 12% 9% 1% 17% <1% 1% 10% 3% 7% 4% 11% 13% 3% <1% 6% 2% <1% <1% 5%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 21x 19x n/a n/a n/a n/a 16x 15x 9x 9x 18x 16x n/m 13x 11x 10x 26x 25x 12x 15x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x n/m .6x .9x 2.3x n/m >9.9x >9.9x 1.5x n/m
Top Holdings of Third Point – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Alcon / ACL TransDigm / TDG CIT Group / CIT PHH / PHH Health Net / HNT Airgas / ARG Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Macy's / M Mead Johnson / MJN Liberty Interactive / LINTA
Market Value ($mn) 48,322 2,830 7,618 1,085 2,348 5,543 14,585 8,854 10,925 6,280
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 160.95 9% 57.35 12% 38.04 12% 19.56 3% 24.10 -1% 66.25 7% 29.02 12% 20.97 17% 53.41 7% 10.50 0%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 700 new 1,800 0% 2,447 4% 4,170 -7% 3,000 0% 1,080 17% 2,002 0% 2,600 >100% 1,000 0% 5,000 4%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 12% 4% 11% 1% 10% 8% 8% 3% 7% 1% 7% <1% 6% <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 5%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Alcon / ACL Plains Exploration / PXP ViewPoint Financial / VPFG Xerium Technologies / XRM
Alkermes / ALKS Brocade Comms / BRCD Dana Holding / DAN DIRECTV / DTV Kraft Foods / KFT Lear / LEA Pall Corp. / PLL Phillips-Van Heusen / PVH
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 21x 19x 18x 16x 16x 15x n/m 7x 9x 9x 20x 18x 16x 16x 11x 10x 22x 20x 12x 15x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x n/m .9x 9.6x 2.3x >9.9x n/m >9.9x n/m n/m
Phoenix Companies / PNX Popular / BPOP Strategic Hotels / BEE Toyota / TM VIVUS / VVUS Walgreen / WAG Washington Post / WPO WellPoint / WLP
*
$976 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Financial 26%
77%
Median market value
$2.7 billion
Average market value
$13 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
2.1x
*
Other 39%
Services 19%
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Health Care 17%
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August 27, 2010 – Page 59 of 175
Tiger Global (Chase Coleman) Chase Coleman, a descendant early New York Governor Peter Stuyvesant, worked for Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management prior to founding Tiger Global in 2001. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Tiger Global
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 228,062 1,527 14,630 3,074 3,969 6,918 26,535 2,065 19,266 2,022
Company / Ticker Apple / AAPL Live Nation / LYV priceline.com / PCLN MercadoLibre / MELI Liberty Capital / LCAPA Liberty Global / LBTYA Lockheed Martin / LMT Longtop Fin. Tech / LFT Viacom / VIA.B Shanda Games / GAME
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 249.64 -1% 8.80 -16% 302.36 71% 69.66 33% 45.37 8% 28.39 9% 73.20 -2% 36.59 13% 31.68 1% 7.02 -17%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1,041 76% 10,581 >100% 893 56% 4,193 0% 3,808 79% 6,384 36% 2,136 2% 3,911 26% 1,148 new 2,834 58%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 7% 6% 2% 2% 7% 10% 8% 4% 5% 3% 5% <1% 4% 7% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 17x 14x n/m 73x 25x 20x 61x 45x n/m n/m n/m n/m 10x 9x 22x 18x 11x 10x 10x 9x
Price/ Tang. Book 5.4x n/m >9.9x >9.9x 2.3x n/m n/m 5.8x n/m 7.8x
Top Holdings of Tiger Global – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 6,007 3,074 33,811 14,630 228,062 103,093 5,215 6,918 3,969 26,535
Company / Ticker Apollo Group / APOL MercadoLibre / MELI DIRECTV / DTV priceline.com / PCLN Apple / AAPL PepsiCo / PEP Electronic Arts / ERTS Liberty Global / LBTYA Liberty Capital / LCAPA Lockheed Martin / LMT
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 40.72 -4% 69.66 33% 38.05 12% 302.36 71% 249.64 -1% 64.80 6% 15.79 10% 28.39 9% 45.37 8% 73.20 -2%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 9,918 -11% 4,193 0% 7,484 -36% 893 56% 1,041 76% 3,887 -13% 14,100 -7% 6,384 36% 3,808 79% 2,136 2%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 7% 11% 10% 8% <1% 8% 2% 7% <1% 7% <1% 7% 4% 6% 3% 5% 4% 5% <1% 4%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Compania Cervecerias / CCU Domino's Pizza / DPZ Viacom / VIA.B Xerox / XRX
Amazon.com / AMZN Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A E*Trade Financial / ETFC Google / GOOG Hewlett-Packard / HPQ Kraft Foods / KFT Lincare / LNCR
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
67%
Median market value
$9.1 billion
Average market value
$30 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tangible book
3.6x
*
Madison Sq. Garden / MSG Monsanto / MON Symetra Financial / SYA Visa / V Western Union / WU Yahoo! / YHOO
*
Capital Goods 8% Services 44%
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Price/ Tang. Book 7.9x >9.9x n/m >9.9x 5.4x n/m 3.5x n/m 2.3x n/m
Other 13%
$3.7 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 8x 7x 61x 45x 16x 12x 25x 20x 17x 14x 16x 14x 24x 18x n/m n/m n/m n/m 10x 9x
Technology 35%
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August 27, 2010 – Page 60 of 175
Viking Global (Andreas Halvorsen) Andreas Halvorsen is a graduate of the Norwegian Naval Academy, a former platoon commander of the Norwegian SEALs, and a former director of equities at Tiger Management. Halvorsen founded Viking Global Investors in 1999. MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Viking Global
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker American Tower / AMT Oracle / ORCL News Corp. / NWSA Invesco / IVZ Adobe Systems / ADBE Tyco International / TYC Mednax / MD PNC Financial / PNC Corinthian Colleges / COCO Comcast / CMCSA
Market Value ($mn) 19,026 115,704 33,368 8,717 14,664 19,261 2,296 27,704 396 49,985
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 47.43 7% 23.02 7% 12.73 6% 18.50 10% 27.92 6% 38.70 10% 48.20 -13% 52.73 -7% 4.49 -54% 17.81 3%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 11,798 new 21,237 >100% 32,736 65% 36,556 15% 11,409 new 10,754 3% 2,652 >100% 4,623 >100% 3,159 new 23,142 >100%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 3% 6% <1% 5% 1% 5% 8% 8% 2% 4% 2% 5% 6% 1% <1% 3% 4% <1% <1% 5%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 55x 43x 12x 11x 12x 10x n/a n/a 15x 13x 15x 12x 12x 11x 10x 9x 3x 2x 14x 12x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x n/m 1.7x 5.8x n/m
Top Holdings of Viking Global – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Market Value ($mn) 8,717 19,026 115,704 33,368 19,261 49,985 9,052 7,435
Company / Ticker Invesco / IVZ American Tower / AMT Oracle / ORCL News Corp. / NWSA Tyco International / TYC Comcast / CMCSA Goodrich Corp. / GR Sherwin-Williams / SHW
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 18.50 10% 47.43 7% 23.02 7% 12.73 6% 38.70 10% 17.81 3% 72.25 9% 68.34 -1%
New Positions
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 8% 8% 3% 6% <1% 5% 1% 5% 2% 5% <1% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/a n/a 55x 43x 12x 11x 12x 10x 15x 12x 14x 12x 16x 14x 15x 13x
Price/ Tang. Book >9.9x n/m >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x n/m >9.9x >9.9x
Sold Out Positions
Adobe Systems / ADBE American Express / AXP American Tower / AMT BRE Properties / BRE C.H. Robinson / CHRW Charles Schwab / SCHW Corinthian Colleges / COCO EMC / EMC Equity Residential / EQR Estee Lauder / EL Human Genome Science / HGSI KB Home / KBH
Portfolio Metrics
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 36,556 15% 11,798 new 21,237 >100% 32,736 65% 10,754 3% 23,142 >100% 4,935 39% 5,117 69%
KeyCorp / KEY Lab Corp. of America / LH Medco Health / MHS Morgan Stanley / MS Precision Castparts / PCP Prudential Financial / PRU Stanley Black Decker / SWK Time Warner / TWX Time Warner Cable / TWC Valeant Pharma / VRX Xerox / XRX
*
Portfolio size
Banco Santander / STD Bank of America / BAC Beckman Coulter / BEC Capital One / COF CME Group / CME Family Dollar Stores / FDO Google / GOOG Hewlett-Packard / HPQ Ingersoll-Rand / IR InterMune / ITMN Lennar / LEN
Sector Weightings
McKesson / MCK NVR / NVR Pall Corp. / PLL Pfizer / PFE Psychiatric Solution / PSYS Qwest Comms / Q Rockwell Collins / COL Visa / V Walt Disney / DIS WellPoint / WLP
*
$8.9 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
48%
Median market value
$12 billion
Average market value
$25 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
2.7x
*
Other 35%
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Technology 15%
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Services 27%
Financial 23%
August 27, 2010 – Page 61 of 175
Weitz Funds (Wally Weitz) Wally Weitz, sometimes called “The Other Oracle of Omaha,” founded Wallace R. Weitz & Co. in 1983 with $10 million under management. The firm has since grown into a $2 billion asset manager best known for the Weitz Value Fund.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Weitz
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 209,676 10 6,280 244 27,121 2,344 82,285 6,007 19,261 147,249
Company / Ticker Microsoft / MSFT Intelligent Systems / INS Liberty Interactive / LINTA The Knot / KNOT Accenture / ACN Omnicare / OCR ConocoPhillips / COP Apollo Group / APOL Tyco International / TYC Google / GOOG
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 24.23 5% 1.06 -15% 10.50 0% 7.16 -8% 38.42 -1% 19.84 -16% 53.89 10% 40.72 -4% 38.70 10% 462.02 4%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 3,611 45% 2,270 0% 8,652 5% 2,205 >100% 1,711 >100% 3,626 41% 1,301 52% 726 >100% 1,604 18% 99 >100%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 5% 25% <1% 1% 5% 6% <1% <1% 4% 3% 4% <1% 4% <1% 2% <1% 4% <1% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 10x 9x n/a n/a 12x 15x >99x 65x 15x 13x 10x 9x 9x 8x 8x 7x 15x 12x 17x 15x
Price/ Tang. Book 6.4x 1.8x n/m 1.6x >9.9x n/m 1.4x 7.9x >9.9x 4.3x
Top Holdings of Weitz – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A Liberty Global / LBTYA Redwood Trust / RWT Liberty Interactive / LINTA Microsoft / MSFT Omnicare / OCR ConocoPhillips / COP Dell / DELL Accenture / ACN Tyco International / TYC
Market Value ($mn) 192,655 6,918 1,118 6,280 209,676 2,344 82,285 23,636 27,121 19,261
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 116,700 -3% 28.39 9% 14.34 -2% 10.50 0% 24.23 5% 19.84 -16% 53.89 10% 12.07 0% 38.42 -1% 38.70 10%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1 -38% 3,659 -3% 6,836 -1% 8,652 5% 3,611 45% 3,626 41% 1,301 52% 5,793 -3% 1,711 >100% 1,604 18%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 7% 2% 6% 9% 6% 1% 5% <1% 5% 3% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4% <1% 4%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Hewitt Associates / HEW Target / TGT
Buckle / BKE Corporate Executive / EXBD Daily Journal / DJCO DIRECTV / DTV News Corp. / NWSA
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 19x 18x n/m n/m 9x 9x 12x 15x 10x 9x 10x 9x 9x 8x 10x 8x 15x 13x 15x 12x
Price/ Tang. Book 2.1x n/m 1.1x n/m 6.4x n/m 1.4x >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x
*
$1.7 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Other 24%
50%
Median market value
$5.0 billion
Average market value
$27 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
2.5x
*
Services 48% Financial 11%
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Technology 18%
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August 27, 2010 – Page 62 of 175
West Coast (Lance Helfert and Paul Orfalea) Lace Helfert and Paul Orfalea co-founded West Coast Asset Management in 2000. Helfert, who directs the firm’s investments, previously oversaw a $1 billion portfolio at Wilshire Associates. Orfalea is the founder of Kinko’s copy shops. West Coast invests in undervalued equities and follows a concentrated investment approach.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of West Coast Asset Management
1 2 3 4 5
Market Value ($mn) 19,818 2,555 13 39 1,527
Company / Ticker Automatic Data / ADP Broadridge Financial / BR American Defense / EAG Angiotech Pharma / ANPI Live Nation / LYV
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 39.40 -2% 20.16 6% 0.26 13% 0.46 -39% 8.80 -16%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 206 new 414 new 5,084 0% 59 0% 506 -17%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 8% <1% 8% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% 5%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 15x 13x 11x n/a n/a n/a n/a n/m 73x
Price/ Tang. Book 3.6x >9.9x n/m n/m n/m
Top Holdings of West Coast Asset Management – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 161,796 9,073 26,487 8,538 5,450 2,555 19,818 50,752 181 1,527
Company / Ticker Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Clorox / CLX Kimberly-Clark / KMB Molson Coors / TAP McCormick / MKC Broadridge Financial / BR Automatic Data / ADP Kraft Foods / KFT Sonde Resources / SNG Live Nation / LYV
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 58.74 -1% 64.42 4% 64.71 7% 45.92 8% 40.90 8% 20.16 6% 39.40 -2% 29.10 4% 2.90 -5% 8.80 -16%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 225 -24% 200 -20% 197 -17% 273 -17% 267 -21% 414 new 206 new 171 -58% 1,657 -79% 506 -17%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 13% <1% 13% <1% 13% <1% 13% <1% 11% <1% 8% <1% 8% <1% 5% 3% 5% <1% 5%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Automatic Data / ADP Broadridge Financial / BR
None
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings $99 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
$5.4 billion
Average market value
$22 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tangible book
3.6x
*
Consumer Non-Cyclical 42% Health Care 13%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Price/ Tang. Book 7.4x n/m >9.9x 6.5x n/m >9.9x 3.6x n/m .8x n/m
Other 23%
94%
Median market value
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 12x 12x 14x 13x 13x 12x 13x 12x 16x 15x 13x 11x 16x 15x 14x 13x n/a n/a n/m 73x
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Services 21%
August 27, 2010 – Page 63 of 175
Wintergreen (David Winters) David Winters joined Mutual Series in 1987 and was mentored by famed value investor Michael Price. Winters became president and CIO of Mutual Series in 2001. He left in 2005 to form Wintergreen Advisers and manage the Wintergreen Fund, a mutual fund that follows an active, value-oriented investment approach.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of Wintergreen Advisers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Canadian Natural / CNQ Consolidated-Tomoka / CTO Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A Franklin Resources / BEN SPDR Gold Trust / GLD Fomento Economico / FMX Reynolds American / RAI Coca-Cola / KO Leucadia National / LUK Mead Johnson / MJN
Market Value ($mn) 35,078 153 192,655 22,266 50,567 89,326 16,512 127,713 4,956 10,925
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 32.20 -3% 26.65 -6% 116,700 -3% 98.92 15% 119.97 -1% 49.93 16% 56.64 9% 55.30 10% 20.37 4% 53.41 7%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1,358 >100% 1,481 0% 1 0% 501 0% 131 0% 48 new 660 0% 373 0% 382 0% 67 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 10% 26% 9% <1% 23% <1% 11% <1% 4% <1% <1% <1% 8% <1% 5% <1% 2% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 13x 10x >99x 58x 19x 18x 16x 14x n/a n/a 18x 14x 11x 11x 16x 15x n/a n/a 22x 20x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.7x 1.3x 2.1x 4.1x 1.3x >9.9x n/m 9.5x 1.3x n/m
Top Holdings of Wintergreen Advisers – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company / Ticker Berkshire Hathaway / BRK.A Franklin Resources / BEN Canadian Natural / CNQ Consolidated-Tomoka / CTO Philip Morris / PM Reynolds American / RAI General Dynamics / GD Goldman Sachs / GS Coca-Cola / KO SPDR Gold Trust / GLD
Market Value ($mn) 192,655 22,266 35,078 153 95,273 16,512 22,910 76,435 127,713 50,567
Price Recent ∆ from ($) Jun. 30 116,700 -3% 98.92 15% 32.20 -3% 26.65 -6% 51.98 13% 56.64 9% 60.23 3% 148.24 13% 55.30 10% 119.97 -1%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 1 0% 501 0% 1,358 >100% 1,481 0% 721 -26% 660 0% 474 -20% 142 -50% 373 0% 131 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 23% <1% 11% <1% 10% 26% 9% <1% 8% <1% 8% <1% 6% <1% 5% <1% 5% <1% 4%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Fomento Economico / FMX
Chesapeake Energy / CHK
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size
Sector Weightings
89%
Median market value
$23 billion
Average market value
$51 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tangible book
1.9x
*
Capital Goods 15%
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Price/ Tang. Book 2.1x 4.1x 1.7x 1.3x n/m n/m n/m 1.3x 9.5x 1.3x
*
Other 17%
$444 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 19x 18x 16x 14x 13x 10x >99x 58x 14x 12x 11x 11x 9x 8x 10x 8x 16x 15x n/a n/a
Financial 43%
Consumer Non-Cyclical 25%
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August 27, 2010 – Page 64 of 175
WL Ross & Co. (Wilbur Ross) Wilbur Ross, born in 1937, has become well-known for restructuring failed companies in a variety of industries. He has been a leveraged buyout and distressed investor in steel, coal, telecom, financial and other companies.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of WL Ross & Co.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 1,039 1,118 1,063 591 3,124 1,009 3,847 57 108 3,178
Company / Ticker Jo-Ann Stores / JAS Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB Key Energy Services / KEG Innophos / IPHS Assured Guaranty / AGO International Coal / ICO Lear / LEA Cyclacel Pharma / CYCC Callidus Software / CALD MetroPCS / PCS
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 38.03 1% 18.19 -7% 8.46 -8% 27.60 6% 17.00 28% 4.95 29% 77.76 17% 1.55 -10% 3.44 6% 8.98 10%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 172 77% 389 42% 234 new 71 new 16,016 0% 24,537 0% 67 97% 814 0% 1,701 0% 3,225 -1%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 9% 60% 12% 27% <1% 1% 2% <1% 5% 1% <1% 6%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 12x 10x 8x 8x >99x 14x 10x 9x 6x 4x 20x 8x 14x 10x n/m n/m n/m 25x 14x 10x
Price/ Tang. Book 1.8x 2.8x 3.3x 2.6x .8x 1.4x 2.6x 4.0x 8.7x n/m
Top Holdings of WL Ross & Co. – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 3,124 1,009 3,178 1,118 1,039 108 3,847 1,063 591 57
Company / Ticker Assured Guaranty / AGO International Coal / ICO MetroPCS / PCS Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB Jo-Ann Stores / JAS Callidus Software / CALD Lear / LEA Key Energy Services / KEG Innophos / IPHS Cyclacel Pharma / CYCC
Price Recent ∆ from Jun. 30 ($) 17.00 28% 4.95 29% 8.98 10% 18.19 -7% 38.03 1% 3.44 6% 77.76 17% 8.46 -8% 27.60 6% 1.55 -10%
Shares Owned Recent ∆ from Mar. 31 ('000) 16,016 0% 24,537 0% 3,225 -1% 389 42% 172 77% 1,701 0% 67 97% 234 new 71 new 814 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 9% 60% 12% 27% <1% 6% <1% 2% <1% 1% 5% 1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% <1%
New Positions
Sold Out Positions
Innophos / IPHS Key Energy Services / KEG
None
Portfolio Metrics
*
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Sector Weightings $453 million
Services 8%
100%
Median market value
$1.1 billion
Average market value
$1.5 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
12x
Median P/E (next FY)
10x
Median P / tangible book
2.6x
Energy 27%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 6x 4x 20x 8x 14x 10x 8x 8x 12x 10x n/m 25x 14x 10x >99x 14x 10x 9x n/m n/m
Price/ Tang. Book .8x 1.4x n/m 2.8x 1.8x 8.7x 2.6x 3.3x 2.6x 4.0x
*
Other 5%
Financial 60%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 65 of 175
New or Increased Superinvestor Holdings African Barrick Gold (UK: ABG) – Greenlight London, UK 44 (0) 207 655 5039
Gold Mining Trading Data
www.africanbarrickgold.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $8.99 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $8.75 - $9.15 Market value: $3,692 million Enterprise value: $3,380 million Shares out: 410.7 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest n/a n/a n/a
Month Ago n/a n/a n/a
# of Ests n/a n/a n/a
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
63x n/a n/a n/a 3.9x
FYE 12/31/11
n/a
n/a
n/a
EV/ LTM EBIT
13.9x
Insider ownership: <1%
FYE 12/30/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
P / tangible book
1.7x
Insider buys (last six months): n/a
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months): n/a Institutional ownership: n/a
EPS Surprise n/a
Actual n/a
Estimate n/a
Greenblatt Criteria LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
7% 14%
LTME 6/30/10 858 324 243 127 0.31 410 336 184 152 334 724 258 2,766 0 124 0 342 2,401
YTD 6/30/10 424 176 143 99 0.24 410 158 86 71 334 724 258 2,766 0 124 0 342 2,401
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Common equity
12/31/04
12/31/05
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/06 12/31/07 477 115 73 228 n/a n/a 101 227 (126) 74 319 373 1,985 860 969 130 1,182 785
12/31/08 541 130 (144) (216) n/a n/a 104 409 (304) 53 341 156 2,148 1,206 1,321 94 1,545 578
12/31/09 693 224 156 59 0.14 410 194 223 (29) 70 468 156 2,365 1,383 1,532 0 1,708 637
YTD 6/30/09 259 76 56 31 0.08 410 16 126 (111) 29 423 156 2,302 1,395 1,529 0 1,676 608
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
800p 700p 600p 500p 400p 300p 200p 100p 0p Aug 10
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August 27, 2010 – Page 66 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
African Barrick Gold operates gold mines in Tanzania. Barrick Gold (ABX) sold 26% of the company’s shares in an IPO in March by issuing 107 million shares at 575p/share.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS • •
• • • • •
Fifth-largest gold producer in Africa with 716k ounces produced in 1H10. The company owns four producing mines, all of which are in Tanzania. Carve-out from Barrick Gold in March creates a potentially rewarding investment opportunity due to an attractive valuation relative to reserves and FCF, net cash position, and more incentivized leadership. Recent EV equates to ~$200 per reserve ounce, based on 2P reserves of 16.8 million ounces at 12/2009 (1H10 cash margin is $626/ounce). $334 million of cash and no debt, putting ABG in position to grow production without raising capital. To produce one million gold ounces annually by 2014, driven by organic expansion projects and consolidation opportunities across Africa. Acquired Tusker Gold for $74 million in April. As Tusker’s assets are in Tanzania, the acquisition may benefit from synergies with existing locations. Management incentives aligned with shareholders partly via at-the-money stock options. CEO Greg Hawkins (41) is a former Barrick Gold executive.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
• • • •
Proved gold reserves are only 2.2 million ounces, representing 13% of 2P reserves. While ~70% of proved reserves are at the North Mara mine, 90% of probable ounces are located at the three other mines. Exposed to volatile gold prices which have recently traded at historical highs. Conflicts of interest with Barrick Gold, which owns 74%. Chairman Regent (44) is ABX’s CEO. Barrick Gold share lock-up expires in September potentially leading to large amount of stock for sale. Risks related to operating in Tanzania.
ABX NEM AU GFI ABG.L
EV ($mn) 47,330 29,480 16,840 10,800 3,380
EV / Rev. 4.9x 3.3x 3.6x 2.8x 3.9x
P/ Tang. Book 4.0x 2.5x 6.0x 2.0x 1.7x
This FY P/E 14x 16x 29x 9x n/a
Next FY P/E 13x 15x 17x n/a n/a
2007 n/a n/a n/a n/a 477
2008 13% -10% n/a 39% 541
2009 28% 31% 12% -9% 693
1H10 64% 23% 28% 0% 424
39 35% 0% 26%
33% 33% 0% 35%
35% 30% 22% 13%
33% 29% 29% 8%
n/a n/a n/a
-5% 6% 49%
38% 16% -52%
25% 30% -17%
30% 25% n/m 55% -3% 31%
17% -4% n/m 72% -2% 27%
24% 43% 56% 55% -5% 36%
51% 53% 51% 41% -4% 46%
24% 34% 15% 48% 14% 11% 37%
24% 28% 13% -40% 14% 15% 61%
32% 41% 23% 8% 15% 14% 18%
41% 46% 34% 23% 13% 11% 9%
605 n/a 421 55% 17%
545 872 586 -52% 18%
716 974 533 13% 19%
356 1,155 529 15% 47%
Based on IFRS. Certain historical data are not available due to lack of disclosure as a result of the spin-off from Barrick Gold in 2010. 2 Began production in May 2009. 3 Reported officially as "Other" segment. Primarily comprises corporate expenses including exploration activities. 4 2008 EBIT/net income excludes/includes a $216 million impairment charge. 5 As reported by the company. Both YTD capex figures exclude acquisition of Tusker Gold for $63 million, net of cash acquired. 6 Net to the company (after 30% non-controlling interest in Tulawaka mine).
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders <1% | Barrick Gold 74% | All non-Barrick holders (including David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital) 26%
RATINGS
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS MV ($mn) 44,140 28,570 16,040 9,970 3,692
1
FYE December 31 ∆ revenue ∆ gold production ∆ avg realized gold price ∆ cash costs Revenue ($mn) % of revenue by mine: Bulyanhulu North Mara Buzwagi2 Tulawaka Revenue growth by selected mine: Bulyanhulu North Mara Tulawaka EBITDA margin by mine: Bulyanhulu North Mara Buzwagi Tulawaka Corporate3 Total EBITDA margin Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit EBITDA excl. special items EBIT4 Net income4 D&A Capex – maintenance5 Capex – growth5 Selected operating metrics:6 Gold production (in 000s ounces) Average realized gold price ($/ounce) Cash costs ($/ounce) Return on tangible equity Tangible equity to assets
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE African Barrick Gold is a carve-out of the Tanzanian assets of Barrick Gold, which sold 26% of shares in a March IPO. The newly created public company represents a potentially rewarding investment opportunity due to: 1) an attractive valuation of ~$200 per ounce of proved and probable reserves; 2) $334 million of net cash which enables the company to increase production without raising more capital; and 3) a more incentivized management relative to the pre-IPO company structure within Barrick Gold. Main risks relate to a high proportion of “probable” reserves and exposure to volatile gold prices.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 67 of 175
…additional insight into African Barrick Gold: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
$200 of enterprise value per ounce of 2P gold reserves plus net cash
$300 of enterprise value per ounce of 2P gold reserves plus net cash
$400 of enterprise value per ounce of 2P gold reserves plus net cash
$200
$300
$400
16.8
16.8
16.8
Estimated Enterprise Value
$3,353
$5,029
$6,706
Plus: Net cash as of 6/30/2010
334
334
334
$3.7 billion
$5.4 billion
$7.0 billion
$9 per share
$13 per share
$17 per share
($ in millions)
Valuation Methodology
Estimated value per ounce of gold reserves ($/ounce) Proved+probable gold reserves at yearend 2009 (mn ounces)
1
Estimated fair value of the equity of African Barrick Gold2 1
Based on average long-term gold price of $825/ounce and incorporating current or expected mine plans and costs. Calculated in accordance with National Instrument 43-101, as required by Canadian securities regulatory authorities.
2
Based on 411 million diluted shares outstanding.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
ATTRIBUTION OF THE CHANGE IN EBITDA FROM 2009 TO 2010
Source: Company presentation dated July 2010.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 68 of 175
…additional insight into African Barrick Gold: H1 2010 OPERATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
Source: Company presentation dated July 2010.
H1 2010 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Source: Company presentation dated July 2010.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 69 of 175
Aon Corp. (AON) – Breeden , FPA , Southeastern , Weitz Chicago, IL, 312-381-1000
Financial: Insurance (Miscellaneous), Member of S&P 500 Trading Data
www.aon.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $36.91 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $35.10 - $44.34 Market value: $10.0 billion Enterprise value: $11.2 billion Shares out: 269.7 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $0.69 0.94 3.28
Month Ago $0.68 0.94 3.22
FYE 12/31/11
3.51
3.54
16
EV/ LTM EBIT
11x
3.98
4.03
9
P / tangible book
n/m
10.0%
9.3%
4
Insider ownership: 1%
FYE 12/30/12
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
Insider sales (last six months): 16 Institutional ownership: 81%
EPS Surprise 7/30/10
Actual $0.81
# of Ests 13 13 16
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
17x 11x 11x 9x 1.5x
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate $0.75
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
n/m n/m
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity
12/31/03 9,464 n/m 1,074 625 1.94 318 1,312 241 1,071 4,355 13,108 4,685 27,027 53 19,050 3,429 22,479 50 4,498
12/31/04 8,607 n/m 733 540 1.45 320 1,184 80 1,104 5,018 13,428 4,744 28,329 2 19,533 2,115 23,176 50 5,103
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 6,651 6,770 7,234 n/m n/m n/m 577 830 1,003 733 720 864 1.23 1.45 2.03 322 317 305 884 968 1,263 126 152 170 758 816 1,093 4,347 4,616 4,826 16,752 17,613 18,068 4,253 4,666 5,119 27,832 24,384 24,929 7 42 252 18,913 14,356 14,577 2,105 2,243 1,893 22,515 19,166 18,708 0 0 0 5,317 5,218 6,221
12/31/08 7,528 n/m 940 1,462 2.04 293 959 103 856 1,266 14,526 6,416 22,940 105 12,803 1,872 17,630 0 5,310
12/31/09 7,595 n/m 1,021 747 2.18 283 375 140 235 639 13,989 6,869 22,958 10 12,640 1,998 17,579 0 5,379
LTME 6/30/10 7,669 n/m 976 649 2.16 282 1,150 158 992 734 15,497 6,463 23,956 370 14,138 1,601 18,528 0 5,428
FQE 6/30/09 1,882 n/m 220 149 0.50 285 (456) 32 (488) 1,117 15,881 6,659 24,438 681 14,859 1,249 18,572 0 5,866
FQE 6/30/10 1,898 n/m 268 153 0.63 278 408 38 370 734 15,497 6,463 23,956 370 14,138 1,601 18,528 0 5,428
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$60
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August 27, 2010 – Page 70 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
Aon provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage services, risk management, and consulting services worldwide. In July, Aon announced it is to merge with Hewitt Associates (HEW) in a half cash/half shares deal valuing Hewitt’s equity at $4.9 billion based on Aon’s closing price on July 9. Aon expects the transaction to close by mid-November.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
• •
#2 insurance broker worldwide, based on revenue, behind Marsh & McLennan and ahead of Willis, according to 2008 Business Insurance rankings. Hewitt merger expands consulting business. The merged Aon-Hewitt consulting/outsourcing operations had pro-forma revenue of $4.3 billion in 2009 (~50% outsourcing). The combined business is #1 in benefits and human resources outsourcing. Aon shares may be worth twice the recent price by 2013, assuming a 12x multiple of pro-forma 2009 EBITDA-capex, adjusted for the realization of targeted synergies of $355 million by 2013. Post-deal leverage to remain manageable with net debt of ~$3.6 billion representing 1.6x pro-forma 2009 EBITDA. While Aon has $1.2 billion of net debt and is assuming another $2.5 billion in the deal, Hewitt had $111 million of net cash at 6/30. ~60% of post-deal EBITDA from insurance brokerage, based on 2009 pro-forma EBITDA. Does not assume underwriting risk. As an insurance broker, Aon solely negotiates and places risks on behalf of clients. It derives revenue mainly from commissions paid by insurance companies.
1
FYE December 31 ∆ revenue ∆ organic revenue – risk/insurance ∆ organic revenue – consulting Revenue ($bn) % of revenue by segment: Risk/Insurance brokerage Consulting Revenue growth by segment: Risk/Insurance brokerage Consulting EBIT margin by segment:2 Risk/Insurance brokerage Consulting Corporate Total EBIT margin % of revenue by geography:3 U.S. Other Americas U.K. Europe/Mideast/Africa Asia Pacific Revenue growth by major geography: U.S. Other Americas U.K. Europe/Mideast/Africa Selected items as % of revenue: Net income D&A Capex ∆ shares out (avg)
• •
Will Hewitt deal create value? While Aon is paying what appears to be a reasonable 10x multiple of Hewitt’s 2009 EBITDA-capex, this is above Aon’s multiple of less than 9x. As Aon is issuing 64 million shares in the deal, value creation will depend on realization of targeted synergies. M&A hype is masking weak underlying trends in Aon’s business. YTD organic revenue fell 2% in risk/brokerage operations, while consulting was flat. Shareholders may not be best served with Aon having insurance brokerage and consulting under one roof. Synergies are not readily apparent.
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders 1% | Cap World 9% | Southeastern 8% | T. Rowe 7% State Street 5% | NWQ 4% | Vanguard 3% | BlackRock 3%
2008 4% 2% 3% 7.5
2009 1% -1% -2% 7.6
1H10 2% -2% 0% 3.8
82% 19%
82% 18%
83% 17%
83% 17%
7% 5%
5% 1%
2% -7%
2% 5%
16% 13% -2% 14%
14% 15% -2% 12%
20% 17% -2% 17%
21% 16% -2% 18%
37% 11% 18% 26% 8%
35% 11% 17% 28% 9%
37% 12% 17% 26% 9%
36% 12% 15% 28% 9%
0% 6% 13% 14%
-1% 11% -3% 13%
5% 6% 1% -6%
2% 7% -6% 1%
9% 3% 2% -4%
8% 3% 1% -4%
8% 3% 2% -3%
9% 3% 2% -3%
Based on continuing operations. In 2008 and 2009, Aon sold all of its insurance underwriting operations. Figures include the contribution from the acquisition of reinsurance intermediary Benfield effective November 2008. 2 2007 and 2008 EBIT is as reported. 2009 and YTD figures exclude restructuring charges, pension-related charges and other special items. 3 Based on the location of the resources producing the revenues.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
MMC WSH BRO AJG
23.10 29.90 2,770 24.80
Market Value ($mn) 12,550 5,100 2,730 2,610
AON
36.90
9,955
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
2007 7% n/a n/a 7.2
Price ($)
RATINGS
Price to Tangible Book n/m n/m 2.9x n/m
This FY P/E 14x 11x n/m 18x
Next FY P/E 12x 10x 18x 16x
n/m
11x
11x
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
FY End Date Dec-31 Dec-31 17x Dec-31 Dec-31
THE BOTTOM LINE Insurance broker Aon has made a transformative bid for Hewitt in July. The $4.9 billion deal adds scale to Aon’s small consulting/outsourcing practice, catapulting it to the largest provider of benefits and human resources outsourcing. Aon shares appear undervalued if management can fully achieve targeted deal synergies. However, the risk-reward is not compelling given execution risk around integrating a “people business,” and weak organic growth in Aon’s core operations. Based on the latter, management may have opted for an easier, but not necessarily value-creating, route to accelerate growth. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 71 of 175
…additional insight into Aon: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE – EXCLUDES MERGER WITH HEWITT ASSOCIATES Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
8x 2009 adjusted EBITDA minus normalized capex
10x 2009 adjusted EBITDA minus normalized capex
12x 2009 adjusted EBITDA minus normalized capex
$1,619 100 $1,519 8.0x $12,152 (1,237) (1,716) $9.2 Billion $34 per share
$1,619 100 $1,519 10.0x $15,190 (1,237) (1,716) $12.2 Billion $45 per share
$1,619 100 $1,519 12.0x $18,228 (1,237) (1,716) $15.3 Billion $57 per share
($ in millions) Valuation Methodology 2009 adjusted EBITDA1 Estimated normalized capex 2009 estimated EBITDA-capex Fair value multiple Estimated Enterprise Value Less: Net debt as of 6/30/2010 Less: Net post-retirement liability as of 6/30/2010 Estimated fair value of the equity of Aon2 1
As reported by Aon in the Aon/Hewitt merger presentation from July 12, 2010 (page 20). Adjusted EBITDA excludes restructuring charges, pension curtailment, Benfield integration costs and costs of anti-bribery and compliance initiatives. The implied margin is 21.3% of 2009 revenue.
2
Based on 270 million shares outstanding.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE – INCLUDES MERGER WITH HEWITT ASSOCIATES ($ in millions)
Valuation Methodology
2009 pro-forma EBITDA1 Estimated normalized capex2 2009 pro-forma EBITDA-capex, PRE-SYNERGIES Targeted deal synergies3 Assumed synergies realization factor Assumed realized synergies 2009 pro-forma EBITDA-capex, POST-SYNERGIES Fair value multiple Estimated Enterprise Value Less: Pro-forma net debt as of 6/30/20104 Less: Transaction debt assumed (cash portion of deal price) Less: Restructuring and deal costs5 Less: Pro-forma net post-retirement liability Estimated fair value of the equity of Aon/Hewitt6
Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
8x 2009 pro-forma, postsynergy EBITDA minus normalized capex (assumes 0% of targeted synergies achieved)
10x 2009 pro-forma, post-synergy EBITDA minus normalized capex (assumes 50% of targeted synergies achieved)
12x 2009 pro-forma, post-synergy EBITDA minus normalized capex (assumes 100% of targeted synergies achieved)
$2,209 225 $1,984 355 0% 0 $1,984 8.0x $15,872 (1,126)
$2,209 225 $1,984 355 50% 178 $2,162 10.0x $21,615 (1,126)
$2,209 225 $1,984 355 100% 355 $2,339 12.0x $28,068 (1,126)
(2,450)
(2,450)
(2,450)
(300) (1,716) $10.3 Billion $31 per share
(300) (1,716) $16.0 Billion $48 per share
(300) (1,716) $22.5 Billion $67 per share
1
Adds Hewitt's 2009 adjusted EBITDA of $590 million (19.6% margin on 2009 revenue) to Aon's 2009 adjusted EBITDA of $1,619 million (21.3% margin on 2009 revenue).
2
Assumes Hewitt's normalized capex is proportionately higher relative to Aon due to Hewitt's focus on more capital-intensive outsourcing.
3
As reported by Aon in the Aon/Hewitt merger presentation from July 12, 2010 (page 10). The full $355 million of synergies are expected to be achieved by 2013 (not reflected in our valuation for simplicity purposes). Synergies represent 10% of Aon Hewitt’s FY2009 operating expense base.
4
Adds Hewitt's net cash of $111 million as of June 30, 2010 to Aon's net debt of $1,237 million. Combined pro-forma net debt (including transaction debt of $2.45 billion) to 2009 pro-forma EBITDA is 1.6x.
5
Based on restructuring costs of $249 million as disclosed in the Aon/Hewitt merger presentation from July 12, 2010 (page 10). The remainder is assumed to be transaction costs.
6
Based on 334 million pro-forma shares outstanding, including 64.0 million newly issued shares to pay for the share-based part of the Hewitt deal consideration).
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 72 of 175
…additional insight into Aon: SLIDES FROM PRESENTATION ON HEWITT MERGER, JULY 2010
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August 27, 2010 – Page 73 of 175
Bally Technologies (BYI) – Breeden Las Vegas, NV, 702-584-7700
Services: Casinos & Gaming, Member of S&P MidCap 400 Trading Data
www.ballytech.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $33.04 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $30.00 - $47.47 Market value: $1.8 billion Enterprise value: $1.8 billion Shares out: 54.4 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 6/30/11
Latest $0.48 0.53 2.26
Month Ago $0.57 0.62 2.52
FYE 6/29/12
2.64
2.88
9
EV/ LTM EBIT
10x
2.81
n/a
2
P / tangible book
5.2x
17.3%
17.3%
2
Insider ownership: 1%
FYE 6/29/13
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
Insider sales (last six months): 10 Institutional ownership: close to 100%
EPS Surprise 8/12/10
Actual $0.55
# of Ests 13 13 13
Estimate $0.56
P/E FYE 6/30/10 P/E FYE 6/30/11 P/E FYE 6/29/12 P/E FYE 6/29/13 EV/ LTM revenue
18x 15x 13x 12x 2.3x
Greenblatt Criteria LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
10% 52%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity
6/30/04 477 264 77 80 0.76 50 70 31 39 157 420 185 774 6 162 423 593 0 181
6/30/05 475 210 (5) (23) (0.35) 51 112 50 62 36 272 211 655 10 147 325 479 0 176
Fiscal Years Ended 6/30/06 6/30/07 6/30/08 542 682 900 226 348 518 (44) 67 199 (46) 22 107 (0.90) 0.41 1.85 52 53 54 14 10 25 17 17 25 (3) (7) 1 20 44 67 329 422 548 189 186 199 688 825 995 13 12 13 199 257 294 316 322 291 544 625 672 0 0 0 144 200 323
6/30/09 844 512 203 126 2.07 54 68 22 46 56 466 194 881 35 178 174 445 0 436
6/30/10 778 498 184 138 1.88 55 165 34 131 145 476 195 913 43 175 131 371 0 542
LTME 6/30/10 778 498 184 233 1.87 55 n/a n/a n/a 145 476 195 913 43 175 131 371 0 542
FQE 6/30/09 196 123 48 33 0.55 54 77 18 59 56 466 194 881 35 178 174 445 0 436
FQE 6/30/10 195 126 48 51 0.47 55 n/a n/a n/a 145 476 195 913 43 175 131 371 0 542
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
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August 27, 2010 – Page 74 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
Bally provides gaming equipment and related services to casinos and other gaming providers through three segments: Gaming Equipment sells gaming devices and related parts. Gaming Operations provides gaming devices on a rental basis and operates linked progressive systems, video lottery and centrally determined systems. Systems sells computerized monitoring installations and provides related hardware and software maintenance.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
• • • •
•
One of the largest gaming equipment providers with 13% market share of the installed base and 20% shipment share in the year to June 2010.* The company’ main competitors are North American market leader IGT, WMS, Aristocrat and Konami. Installed base, replacement cycle and service contracts lead to recurring revenue. Bally’s operations and systems segments, in particular, provide visibility and offset more volatile demand for new gaming devices in the equipment segment. Trades at low-teens, pre-tax cash flow yield on enterprise value based on FY10 adjusted EBITDA of $264 million (incl. share-based compensation) and estimated normalized capex of ~$25 million. Modest leverage ($29 million of net debt at 6/30) allows for additional return of capital. Bally bought back 1.6 million shares for $62 million since April. Barriers to entry due to the large installed base, brand recognition, and gaming industry regulation. Products are among the highest ROI investments for casinos. Spending on slot machines and other devices is small relative to other casino capex. Growth drivers: U.S. gaming liberalization due to states’ budgetary pressures as well as continued penetration of international markets (contributed 20% to FY10 total revenue versus 9% in FY05). Guiding for EPS of $2.05-2.40 in FY11, down 4% to up 13% y-y, excluding special items. EPS-based measures understate cash flow as D&A > capex.
•
Expects “continued challenging North American replacement market during the last half of calendar 2010.” Bally’s FY11 EPS guidance may be hopeful given that 60% of the full-year EPS estimate is weighted to the second-half of the year. Margins are at historical highs after a turnaround led by CEO Haddrill (56) since 2004/05. Further margin improvement may be challenging.
2006 542 14%
2007 682 26%
2008 900 32%
2009 844 -6%
2010 778 -8%
42% 27% 22% 9%
48% 26% 20% 7%
46% 26% 23% 5%
42% 33% 25% 0%
35% 37% 28% 0%
12% 12% 25%
44% 20% 11%
27% 34% 54%
-13% 17% 3%
-23% 4% 3%
19% 45% 73% 42% 90%
36% 59% 72% 51% 88%
45% 66% 73% 58% 85%
47% 71% 73% 61% 84%2
50% 71% 72% 64% 80%
12% 38%
23% 49%
27% 68%
-3%2 6%2
n/a n/a
8% -5% -9% 12% 3% n/m -9% 2%
8% 10% 3% 9% 3% n/m -3% 2%
7% 22% 12% 7% 3% 156% 10% 2%
9% 24% 15% 9% 4% 69% 25% 0%
10% 25% 18% 9% n/a4 47% 42% 0%
FY09 and FY10 figures exclude contribution from casino operations, which were divested in June 2010 (unless noted otherwise). Includes contribution from divested casino operations. 3 Excludes impairment charges. 4 The company has not filed its 10-K as of August 24, 2010. 2
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
IGT WMS BYI
MV ($mn) 4,570 2,200 1,800
EV ($mn) 6,150 2,030 1,830
EV / Rev. 3.1x 2.7x 2.4x
P/ Tang. Book n/m 3.0x 5.2x
This FY P/E 18x 18x 15x
Next FY P/E 16x 15x 13x
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Haddrill 3% | Other insiders 4% | FMR 5% | Breeden 5% | Oppenheimer 4% | Vanguard 4% | Par 3% | SAC 3%
RATINGS
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
1
FYE June 30 Revenue ($mn) ∆ revenue % of revenue by segment: Equipment Operations Systems Casino operations1 Revenue growth by segment: Equipment Operations Systems Gross margin by segment: Equipment Operations Systems Total gross margin2 % of revenue from U.S./Canada Revenue growth by geography: U.S./Canada International Selected items as % of revenue: R&D EBIT3 Net income D&A Capex Return on tangible equity Tangible equity to assets ∆ shares out (avg)
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends? *
Based on North American market, as reported by Bally in August 2010.
THE BOTTOM LINE Bally is one of the largest companies in the North American gaming equipment and services industry. The company benefits from barriers to entry due to a large installed base of machines, brand recognition, and gaming industry regulation. While margins have improved over the last few years on better execution, equipment demand remains challenged due to casinos delaying capex in a weak economy. As this should ultimately lead to pent-up demand in the future, recent valuation may provide an attractive entry point. The unlevered balance sheet enables Bally to add value through further return of capital. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 75 of 175
…additional insight into Bally Technologies: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE ($ in millions) Valuation Methodology FY10 adjusted EBITDA1 Estimated normalized capex2 FY10 adjusted EBITDA-normalized capex Fair value multiple Estimated Enterprise Value Less: Net debt Estimated fair value of the equity of Bally3
Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
8x FY10 adjusted EBITDA minus normalized capex
10x FY10 adjusted EBITDA minus normalized capex
12x FY10 adjusted EBITDA minus normalized capex
$264 25 $239 8.0x $1,916 (29) $1.9 billion $35 per share
$264 25 $239 10.0x $2,395 (29) $2.4 billion $44 per share
$264 25 $239 12.0x $2,874 (29) $2.8 billion $52 per share
1
Based on continuing operations and excluding impairment charges. Our definition of adjusted EBITDA differs from that of the company as it includes share-based compensation expense.
2
Approximates average capex during FY 2006-2010.
3
Based on 54 million shares outstanding.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
OPERATING LEVERAGE
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 76 of 175
…additional insight into Bally Technologies: SLIDES FROM COMPANY PRESENTATION, AUGUST 2010
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August 27, 2010 – Page 77 of 175
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) – BP Capital , Icahn , Southeastern Oklahoma City, OK, 405-848-8000
Energy: Oil & Gas Operations, Member of S&P 500 Trading Data
www.chk.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $20.38 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $19.62 - $30.00 Market value: $13.3 billion Enterprise value: $26.3 billion Shares out: 654.3 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $0.65 0.72 2.94
Month Ago $0.67 0.75 2.95
FYE 12/31/11
2.83
2.79
29
EV/ LTM EBIT
21x
3.22
3.24
9
P / tangible book
1.1x
8.0%
7.5%
4
Insider ownership: <1%
FYE 12/30/12
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
Insider sales (last six months): 0 Institutional ownership: 72%
EPS Surprise 8/3/10
Actual $0.75
# of Ests 27 26 29
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
n/m 7x 7x 6x 3.0x
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate $0.69
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
5% 5%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 1,717 1,092 655 291 1.20 211 939 800 139 41 342 0 4,572 0 513 2,058 2,840 552 1,180 17%
12/31/04 2,709 1,645 968 439 1.53 253 1,432 1,426 6 7 568 0 8,245 0 964 3,075 5,082 491 2,672 18%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 4,665 7,326 7,800 2,782 5,070 4,881 1,703 3,413 2,650 880 1,904 1,233 2.51 4.35 2.63 322 398 456 2,407 4,843 4,974 2,856 4,766 6,744 (449) 77 (1,770) 60 3 1 1,183 1,154 1,396 0 0 0 16,119 24,417 30,734 0 0 0 1,964 1,890 2,761 5,490 7,376 10,950 9,944 13,166 18,604 1,577 1,958 960 4,598 9,293 11,170 17% 20% 11%
12/31/08 11,629 6,808 1,273 504 0.92 536 5,357 9,177 (3,820) 1,749 4,292 0 38,593 0 3,621 13,175 21,576 505 16,512 4%
12/31/09 7,702 4,221 (9,147) (5,853) (9.56) 612 4,356 5,226 (870) 307 2,446 0 29,914 0 2,688 12,295 18,470 466 10,978 -31%
LTME 6/30/10 8,844 7,656 1,235 623 0.97 617 5,336 5,164 172 601 3,018 0 32,169 0 3,655 10,501 17,354 3,065 11,750 5%
FQE 6/30/09 1,673 1,390 412 237 0.39 603 737 1,058 (321) 554 2,948 0 30,469 0 2,974 13,568 18,467 466 11,536 n/m
FQE 6/30/10 2,012 1,709 378 235 0.37 631 1,795 1,711 84 601 3,018 0 32,169 0 3,655 10,501 17,354 3,065 11,750 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Jul 01
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August 27, 2010 – Page 78 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
Chesapeake is an onshore U.S. natural gas producer.
FYE December 31 2006 2007 2008 57% 6% 49% ∆ revenue 23% 24% 18% ∆ production 19% 21% 11% ∆ proved reserves Selected information on proved reserves (period-end):2 Reserves (tcfe) 9.0 10.9 12.1 % developed 62% 64% 67% After-tax NPV ($bn) 10.0 15.0 11.8 Selected production data: Natural gas (bcf) 526 655 775 Oil (mmbbl) 9 10 11 Total (bcfe) 578 714 843 Average sales prices ($ per ...):3 Natural gas (…mcf) 8.76 8.14 8.09 Oil (…barrel) 59.14 67.50 70.48 Total (…mcfe) 8.86 8.40 8.38 excl. all derivatives 6.69 6.71 8.39 Selected expenses ($ per mcfe):4 Lease operations5 1.16 1.20 1.39 G&A 0.24 0.34 0.45 DD&A 2.53 2.78 2.55 Total 3.93 4.32 4.39 Revenue ($bn) 7.3 7.8 11.6 % of revenue by segment: Exploration/production 77% 72% 68% Midstream6 22% 26% 31% Other7 2% 2% 1% Pre-tax income margin by segment:8 Exploration/production 57% 41% 48% Midstream 3% 2% 2% Other/eliminations 17% 10% -3% Total pre-tax margin 44% 30% 33% Selected items as % of revenue: EBIT8 47% 34% 37% Net income9 26% 16% 4% DD&A 20% 25% 18% Capex excl. acquisitions 60% 86% 79% Acquisitions, net 54% 39% 22% Return on tang. equity10 24% 12% 4% Tang. equity / assets10 38% 37% 40% ∆ shares out (avg) 24% 15% 18%
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
• •
Second-largest producer of U.S. natural gas with 2Q10 production of 2.5 bcf per day. Chesapeake has ~16 years of reserve life based on proved reserves of ~16 tcfe (54% developed; 90%+ natural gas). $27 billion after-tax “PV-10” as of June 30, based on NYMEX strip prices (average of $6.30/mcf and $84/bbl). Deducting $10 billion of net debt yields a fair value of $22/share – in-line with recent prices. Recent market valuation implies zero value for unproved reserves and other assets. Chesapeake has ~226 tcfe of unrisked, unproved resources, which it estimates is worth $28 billion on a risked PV-10 basis at a gas price of $4/mcf. Midstream and other assets could be worth another $7 billion. “Able to add 2.5-3.0 tcfe per year of new proved reserves at <$1.00/mcfe for years to come,” even after replacing production. The company aims to have 24 tcfe of proved reserves by yearend 2012, with less debt and no material share count growth. Targeting asset monetizations of $3.0-3.5 billion in 2H10 and $2.5-3.0 billion in 2011. Low-cost producing assets. Total lease operating, G&A and DD&A costs totaled $3.02/mcfe YTD.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
• •
Value of unproved reserves may be far less than estimated by Chesapeake, especially if natural gas prices decline from recent levels. Additional risks include dry holes and higher than anticipated capex. High capex carries reinvestment risk. Trailing capex is $5.1 billion with another $1.7 billion spent on purchases of gas/oil properties, net of sales. $9.9 billion of net debt and $3.1 billion of preferred stock (at liquidation value) as of June 30.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
DVN APC PXD CHK
MV ($mn) 27,030 24,100 6,720 13,340
EV ($mn) 30,480 33,080 9,050 26,310
EV / Rev. 3.1x 2.9x 3.8x 3.0x
P/ Tang. Book 2.5x 1.6x 1.8x 1.1x
This FY P/E 10x 25x 30x 7x
Next FY P/E 10x 20x 20x 7x
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders <1% | Southeastern 12% | FMR 6% | BlackRock 4% State Street 4% | Vanguard 3% | Mackenzie 2%
2009 -34% 7% 18%
YTD 6/30/10 31% 12% 23%
14.3 58% 8.2
15.5 54% 12.9
835 12 906
437 8 487
5.93 58.38 6.22 3.63
5.97 64.35 6.46 4.46
1.09 0.38 1.78 3.25 7.7
1.04 0.44 1.54 3.02 4.8
66% 32% 2%
64% 34% 2%
36% 2% -21% 24%
52% 3% -18% 34%
28% -76% 21% 68% 10% -43% 40% 14%
34% 20% 16% 63% 30% 8% 37% 5%
1
tcf(e) = trillions of cubic feet (equivalents); b/(mm)= b/(m)illion; m=thousand. Based on SEC pricing method, i.e. based on trailing 12-month average prices at each period-end (at 6/30/10: gas price of $4.10/mcf; oil price of $75.78/bbl). 3 Excludes unrealized gains/losses on derivatives only. 4 5 Excludes interest expense. Includes production taxes. 6 Markets, gathers, compresses gas/oil mainly from company-operated wells. 7 Includes rig/trucking operations mainly used on company-operated wells. 8 Excludes impairments of $11.1 billion in 2009 and $2.8 billion in 2008. 9 Stated after preferred stock dividends ($23 million in 2009). 10 Based on equity/net income after subtracting preferred stock/dividends. 2
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE With natural gas prices remaining depressed, especially relative to oil, investors may be reluctant to consider an investment in Chesapeake. Risk-reward, however, is attractive as proved reserves alone justify the recent share price, based on NYMEX strip pricing. The vast unproved reserves (~15x proved reserves), midstream and other assets represent additional sources of value, which may exceed recent market capitalization. Given the relative predictability of monetizing the onshore asset base, and the unpredictability of natural gas prices, shares offer good downside protection while retaining meaningful upside. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 79 of 175
…additional insight into Chesapeake Energy: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
After-tax PV-10 based on NYMEX strip pricing (assumes average natural gas price of $6.30/mcf and oil price of $84/bbl)
After-tax PV-10 based on NYMEX strip pricing (assumes average natural gas price of $6.30/mcf and oil price of $84/bbl)
After-tax PV-10 based on NYMEX strip pricing (assumes average natural gas price of $6.30/mcf and oil price of $84/bbl)
Unproved reserves2
Assumes zero value
50% of PV-10 value of risked unproved reserves @ gas price of $4/mcf and oil price of $79/bbl
100% of PV-10 value of risked unproved reserves @ gas price of $4/mcf and oil price of $79/bbl
Other assets3
Assumes zero value
Values per company estimate @ gas price of $6/mcf
Values per company estimate @ gas price of $6/mcf
$26.8
$26.8
$26.8
Unproved reserves
–
13.8
27.5
Other assets
–
7.1
7.1
($ in billions) 1
Valuation Methodology: Proved reserves
Estimated Value of … Proved reserves
Less: Net debt Estimated fair value of the equity of Chesapeake4
(9.9)
(9.9)
(9.9)
$16.9 billion
$37.8 billion
$51.5 billion
$22 per share
$50 per share
$68 per share
1
Based on June 30, 2010 data. As disclosed by Chesapeake in August 2010 investor presentation (slides 28/29). Includes value of hedges, midstream assets (including CMD and CHKM), the present value of future drilling receivables and net working capital. Values are based on Chesapeake estimates per August 2010 investor presentation (slide 29). To access the presentation, visit http://bit.ly/9lbAGB 4 Based on 758 million diluted shares, per investor presentation dated August 2010 (slide 29). All preferred stock is assumed converted to common shares. 2 3
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
CHESAPEAKE MANAGEMENT’S ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE
1
Pro forma for $2 billion Senior Note offering and related redemption of $1.5 billion Senior Notes, revolver reduction and fees NYMEX gas price changes and NYMEX oil price held constant at $79.19 per bbl 3 95.4 tcfe of unproved resources, see page 28 for valuation approach 4 Per Outlook issued on 8/3/10 5 CMD assets based on net book value and CHKM assets based on a price of $23.00 per unit 6 Building, drilling rigs, other assets at net book value and investments at market value 7 Excludes existing carries included in proved reserve report above 8 Based on common stock price of $22.00 per share 2
Source: Chesapeake investor presentation, August 2010, http://bit.ly/9lbAGB
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August 27, 2010 – Page 80 of 175
MANAGEMENT’S 2010 FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AT VARIOUS NATURAL GAS PRICES
1
Before effects of unrealized hedging gain or loss Includes the non-cash effect of lifted hedges Includes charges related to stock based compensation 4 Before changes in assets and liabilities 5 Net Debt = long-term debt less cash 6 Fixed charges ($754 mm) = interest expense of $639 million plus deferred dividends of $115 million 7 MEV (Market Equity Value) = $16.7 billion ($22.00/share x 758 mm fully diluted shares as of 6/30/10) 8 EV (Enterprise Value) = $29.5 billion (Market Equity Value, plus $10.6 billion in net long-term debt plus $2.2 billion working capital deficit) 9 Pro forma debt redemptions $2.1 billion; debt offering of 2.0 billion 10 Assuming a common stock price of $22.00/share Source: Chesapeake investor presentation, August 2010, http://bit.ly/9lbAGB 2 3
MANAGEMENT’S 2011 FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AT VARIOUS NATURAL GAS PRICES
1
Before effects of unrealized hedging gain or loss Includes the non-cash effect of lifted hedges Includes charges related to stock based compensation 4 Before changes in assets and liabilities 5 Net Debt = long-term debt less cash 6 Fixed charges ($765 mm) = interest expense of $595 million plus deferred dividends of $172 million 7 MEV (Market Equity Value) = $16.7 billion ($22.00/share x 758 mm fully diluted shares as of 6/30/10) 8 EV (Enterprise Value) = $29.5 billion (Market Equity Value, plus $10.6 billion in net long-term debt plus $2.2 billion working capital deficit) 9 Pro forma debt redemptions of $2.1 billion; debt offering of $2.0 billion 10 Assuming a common stock price of $22.00/share Source: Chesapeake investor presentation, August 2010, http://bit.ly/9lbAGB 2 3
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August 27, 2010 – Page 81 of 175
Ensco (ESV) – Blue Ridge , Eagle , Greenlight , Icahn Dallas, TX, 214-397-3000
Energy: Oil Well Services & Equipment Trading Data
enscointernational.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $41.51 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $33.33 - $52.32 Market value: $5.9 billion Enterprise value: $5.0 billion Shares out: 143.0 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $0.90 0.80 3.63
Month Ago $0.97 0.88 3.76
FYE 12/31/11
4.27
4.31
38
EV/ LTM EBIT
4.95
5.03
21
P / tangible book
7.7%
7.7%
3
Insider ownership: <1%
FYE 12/30/12
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
Insider sales (last six months): 7 Institutional ownership: 88%
EPS Surprise 7/21/10
Actual $0.82
# of Ests 33 31 36
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
8x 11x 10x 8x 2.8x 7x 1.1x
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate $0.81
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
14% 15%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 742 322 180 108 0.69 150 287 186 102 354 543 343 3,183 23 187 550 1,102 0 2,081 8%
12/31/04 731 324 157 93 0.62 151 256 305 (49) 267 494 341 3,322 23 216 527 1,140 0 2,182 7%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 1,034 1,770 2,058 580 1,205 1,414 395 989 1,177 285 770 992 1.77 4.85 6.54 152 152 147 358 947 1,247 477 528 519 (119) 419 728 269 566 630 578 987 1,129 336 336 336 3,618 4,334 4,969 17 167 19 231 385 504 475 309 291 1,078 1,118 1,217 0 0 0 2,540 3,216 3,752 15% 33% 36%
12/31/08 2,394 1,642 1,401 1,151 8.13 142 1,161 772 389 790 1,401 336 5,830 17 428 274 1,153 0 4,677 38%
12/31/09 1,946 1,220 951 779 5.52 140 1,239 861 378 1,141 1,653 336 6,747 17 485 257 1,248 0 5,499 22%
LTME 6/30/10 1,773 999 706 671 4.21 141 1,047 729 318 1,237 1,688 336 6,921 17 416 249 1,153 0 5,768 15%
FQE 6/30/09 497 326 264 198 1.55 140 253 285 (33) 882 1,537 336 6,349 17 455 266 1,228 0 5,122 n/m
FQE 6/30/10 406 199 125 125 0.81 141 210 169 41 1,237 1,688 336 6,921 17 416 249 1,153 0 5,768 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Jul 01
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August 27, 2010 – Page 82 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA
Ensco provides offshore contract oil drilling services.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
•
•
Owns second-largest fleet of shallow-water jackup rigs worldwide with 40 rigs at June 30. Ensco also owns eight ultra-deepwater semisubmersibles (four of which under construction) and one barge. Value of shallow-water business alone may exceed recent market value. The business, which generated $0.6 billion of trailing EBIT, has significant earning power (2008 EBIT: $1.4 billion). $3.1+ billion value of eight deepwater rigs at cost including four rigs under construction (only $1.0 billion of capex remains at 6/30). 1H10 annualized EBIT of $280 million could more than double as the four rigs enter service in 2H10 through 2012. $1.0 billion of net cash as of June 30. Excess cash allows for additional return of capital beyond the dividend increase in April (especially as Ensco’s bid for Scorpion Offshore is no longer proceeding). Normalized earning power minimally affected by GOM spill. Even if drilling restrictions continue, Ensco’s shallow water business, global ops, and ability to redeploy deepwater rigs give it flexibility. Downside protected given $1.0 billion of net cash, FCF generation, and market value roughly in line with tangible book. Ensco sold three jack-up rigs for $142 million (~50% above book value) in 1H10.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
• •
Average dayrate decreased 20% y-y in 1H10, including an 18% decline in 2Q10. Even so, rig utilization fell to 76% in 1H10 from 79% in 1H09. As rig demand is tied to oil prices, Ensco’s profitability could suffer further if oil prices decline. Dependent on contract wins, as backlog fell 26% to $2.6 billion at June 30. While this still represents ~1.5x of annual revenue, visibility remains limited. Industry rig supply/demand. Ensco is exposed to competitive pressure arising from rising rig supply.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
RIG DO NE NBR PDE ESV
MV ($mn) 16,270 8,210 8,060 4,710 4,050 5,940
EV ($mn) 24,810 8,930 7,730 7,530 4,920 4,970
EV / Rev. 2.3x 2.6x 2.3x 2.3x 3.5x 2.8x
P/ Tang. Book 1.3x 2.2x 1.1x .9x .9x 1.1x
This FY P/E 7x 8x 7x 18x 15x 11x
Next FY P/E 6x 8x 7x 11x 8x 10x
1
FYE December 31 ∆ revenue ∆ average day rate ∆ backlog Revenue ($bn) % of revenue by segment: Deepwater Shallow water – Asia Pacific Shallow water – Europe/Africa Shallow water – North/South America Revenue growth by segment:2 Deepwater Shallow water – Asia Pacific Shallow water – Europe/Africa Shallow water – North/South America EBIT margin by segment: Deepwater Shallow water – Asia Pacific Shallow water – Europe/Africa Shallow water – North/South America Corporate Total EBIT margin Rig utilization by segment:3 Deepwater Shallow water – Asia Pacific Shallow water – Europe/Africa Shallow water – North/South America Total rig utilization Average day rates by segment ($000s):4 Deepwater Shallow water – Asia Pacific Shallow water – Europe/Africa Shallow water – North/South America Total average day rate Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit Net income D&A Capex Backlog ($bn) Return on tangible equity Tangible equity to assets ∆ shares out (avg)
2007 18% 24% 22% 2.1
2008 16% 9% 4% 2.4
2009 -19% 4% -27% 1.9
1H101 -14% -20% -26% 0.8
4% 44% 33% 20%
4% 44% 34% 19%
13% 37% 29% 20%
30% 30% 19% 21%
n/a n/a n/a n/a
16% 15% 20% 13%
201% -31% -29% -12%
271% -26% -57% -8%
48% 62% 63% 54% -3% 57%
52% 62% 64% 55% -2% 59%
49% 53% 55% 47% -3% 49%
56% 39% 24% 41% -5% 37%
97% 99% 93% 77% 91%
95% 95% 96% 97% 96%
85% 70% 77% 67% 72%
95% 72% 66% 86% 76%
199 131 199 107 143
335 153 221 98 155
425 143 199 120 162
407 117 133 85 135
69% 47% 9% 25% 3.9 31% 73% -4%
69% 48% 9% 32% 4.0 30% 77% -3%
63% 40% 12% 44% 3.0 16% 80% -1%
54% 32% 14% 40% 2.6 11% 81% 0%
Based on continuing operations (excludes three rigs sold in March/April ‘10). 2007 y-y revenue growth is not available due to different segment reporting. Derived by dividing days under contract by total days in the period. 4 Derived by dividing contract drilling revenue by the number of contract days. 2 3
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders <1% | FMR 11% | Axa 7% | Greenlight 5% | First Pacific 5% | Keybank 3% | JPM 3% | TPG-Axon 2%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE The BP/Transocean oil spill in April and resulting six-month drilling moratorium in the Gulf of Mexico caused material share price declines of contract drillers such as Ensco. This represents an opportunity as Ensco’s long-term earning power should remain unaffected. Trading near tangible book despite cash-generative operations and $1.0 billion of net cash, shares appear undervalued based on Ensco’s shallow-water business alone, without giving any value to its significant deepwater assets. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 83 of 175
…additional insight into Ensco: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
7x LTM EBIT of shallow-water business, plus 75% of estimated build-out cost of deepwater business, less estimated value drag of corporate costs, adjusted for net cash/remaining deepwater capex
7x normalized EBIT of shallowwater business (based on 50% of peak EBIT in 2008), plus 7x normalized EBIT of deepwater business (based on 2x 1H10 annualized EBIT), less value drag of corporate costs, adjusted for net cash/remaining deepwater capex
7x normalized EBIT of shallowwater business (based on 75% of peak EBIT in 2008), plus 7x normalized EBIT of deepwater business (based on 3x 1H10 annualized EBIT), less value drag of corporate costs, adjusted for net cash/remaining deepwater capex
$706 7.0x $4,945
$1,060 7.0x $7,418
$561 7.0x $3,928
$842 7.0x $5,893
($80) 7.0x ($560)
($80) 7.0x ($560)
$971
$971
(1,000)
(1,000)
($29) $8.3 billion $58 per share
($29) $12.7 billion $89 per share
1.5x
2.3x
($ in millions)
Valuation Methodology
Value of shallow-water jack-up rig business: Normalized EBIT $571 Fair value multiple 7.0x Estimated Enterprise Value $3,999 Value of deepwater semi-submersible rig business: Approximate cost-to-build1 $3,500 Fair value multiple 0.75x Estimated Enterprise Value $2,625 Normalized EBIT (incl. contribution from rigs under construction)2 Fair value multiple Estimated Enterprise Value Negative value of corporate overhead: Normalized corporate overhead3 ($80) Fair value multiple 7.0x Estimated Value "Drag" ($560) Value of other assets: Net cash as of 6/30/2010 $971 Remaining capex on committed (1,000) deepwater rig construction4 Adjusted net cash/(debt) ($29) $6.0 billion Estimated fair value of the equity of Ensco5 $42 per share Implied multiple of tangible 1.1x shareholders' equity6 1
Based on an estimated $3.1 billion cost to build seven Ensco 3500 series rigs (of which three were operational and four were under construction in 1H10) and estimated cost of one Ensco 7500 series rig (operational in 1H10).
2
Ensco had four deepwater rigs operating in 1H10, which contributed $140 million of EBIT. Four additional rigs, which are currently under construction, will become operational in 2H10 (1), 2011 (1) and 2012 (2).
3 5
Based on LTM corporate overhead of $80 million. Based on 143 million shares outstanding.
6
4
As disclosed in Ensco's presentation from June 2010 (p. 13).
Based on tangible shareholders' equity of $5.4 billion as of June 30, 2010.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY AND RECENT USES OF CASH
Source: Company presentation dated June 2010.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 84 of 175
…additional insight into Ensco: SLIDES FROM COMPANY PRESENTATION, JUNE 2010
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August 27, 2010 – Page 85 of 175
Estee Lauder (EL) – Lone Pine , Viking New York, NY, 212-572-4200
Consumer Non-Cyclical: Personal & Household Products, Member of S&P 500 Trading Data
www.elcompanies.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $57.39 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $33.14 - $71.29 Market value: $11.3 billion Enterprise value: $11.4 billion Shares out: 196.8 million Ownership Data
This quarter Next quarter FYE 6/30/11
Latest $0.77 1.35 3.05
Month Ago $0.79 1.38 3.18
Valuation # of Ests 17 16 18
P/E FYE 6/30/10 P/E FYE 6/30/11 P/E FYE 6/29/12 P/E FYE 6/29/13 EV/ LTM revenue
FYE 6/29/12
3.52
3.66
15
EV/ LTM EBIT
Insider ownership: 40+%
FYE 6/29/13
4.15
4.36
6
P / tangible book
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
16.4%
16.4%
4
Insider sales (last six months): 46 Institutional ownership: >50%
EPS Surprise 8/12/10
Actual $0.29
Estimate $0.30
24x 19x 16x 14x 1.5x 15x 10.4x
Greenblatt Criteria LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
7% 49%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
6/30/04 5,742 4,277 649 342 1.63 228 673 212 461 612 2,199 744 3,708 74 1,322 462 1,975 0 1,734 66%
6/30/05 6,280 4,677 727 406 1.79 225 478 230 249 553 2,303 792 3,886 264 1,498 451 2,193 0 1,693 66%
Fiscal Years Ended 6/30/06 6/30/07 6/30/08 6,464 7,038 7,911 4,777 5,263 5,914 620 750 811 244 449 474 1.49 2.16 2.40 215 204 194 710 662 690 261 312 358 449 350 332 369 254 402 2,177 2,239 2,787 713 765 901 3,784 4,126 5,011 90 60 119 1,438 1,501 1,699 432 1,028 1,078 2,162 2,927 3,358 0 0 0 1,622 1,199 1,653 51% 57% 50%
6/30/09 7,324 5,442 418 218 1.10 196 696 280 416 865 2,913 910 5,177 34 1,459 1,388 3,537 0 1,640 24%
6/30/10 7,796 5,966 763 478 2.38 198 957 271 686 1,121 3,121 862 5,336 23 1,572 1,205 3,387 0 1,948 49%
LTME 6/30/10 7,796 5,966 763 478 2.39 198 957 271 686 1,121 3,121 862 5,336 23 1,572 1,205 3,387 0 1,948 49%
FQE 6/30/09 1,683 1,256 (15) (18) (0.09) 197 389 64 325 865 2,913 910 5,177 34 1,459 1,388 3,537 0 1,640 n/m
FQE 6/30/10 1,840 1,426 16 24 0.12 199 159 109 49 1,121 3,121 862 5,336 23 1,572 1,205 3,387 0 1,948 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
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August 27, 2010 – Page 86 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA
Estée Lauder markets cosmetic and related beauty products.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
•
Owns globally recognized beauty product brands including internally developed brands Estée Lauder, Clinique, Aramis, Lab Series, Prescriptives and Origins. Key acquired brands include MAC (1994), Bobbi Brown (1995), La Mer (1995), Aveda (1997), Jo Malone (1999), and Bumble and bumble (2006). Brand longevity reflects staying power in a fickle beauty business. Estée Lauder was launched in 1946, Aramis in ‘64, Clinique in ‘68, Prescriptives in ‘79, Lab Series in ‘87 and Origins in ‘90. The company operates ~700 retail stores, which provide marketing platforms and deepen customer contacts. May return more capital to shareholders based on comments during the earnings call in August. The “relatively low” annual dividend of $0.55/share is likely to be raised before the AGM in November. Net debt was only $108 million at June 30. Aiming for EBIT margin of ~13% by FY13 (FY10:10%). Management plans to save $130-140 million of costs in FY11, representing ~1.5% of revenue. Related restructuring cost: $45-55 million. Guiding for EPS of $2.80-3.05 (+2-11%) in FY11, excluding $0.15-0.18 per share of charges. Revenue is to increase 6-8% on a constant-currency basis.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
•
•
Shares appear fairly valued at a 5% forward earnings yield, based on FY11 EPS guidance excluding restructuring charges. The implied EBIT margin of ~12% is above historical average. Few brands drive majority of earnings. The consistently high margins in skin care/makeup are likely due to the strength of a limited number of key brands such as Estée Lauder, Clinique and MAC. Competitors include L’Oreal, Shiseido, LVMH, Coty and Revlon. Industry rivalry and changing consumer trends may lead to greater reliance on M&A/in-licensing, which may pressure margins. Controlled by Lauder family members who own all super-voting class B shares (10 votes per share).
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
PG REV EL
MV ($mn) 170,250 570 11,300
EV ($mn) 198,480 1,750 11,410
EV / Rev. 2.5x 1.3x 1.5x
P/ Tang. Book n/m n/m 10.4x
This FY P/E 15x 7x 19x
Next FY P/E 14x 6x 16x
1 2
FYE June 30 2006 Revenue ($bn)1 6.5 ∆ revenue, reported 3% ∆ revenue, constant currency 4% % of revenue by segment: Skin care 37% Makeup 39% Fragrance 19% Hair care 5% Other 0% Revenue growth by selected segment: Skin care 2% Makeup 6% Fragrance -4% EBIT margin by major segment:2 Skin care 14% Makeup 13% Fragrance 1% Hair care 8% Total EBIT margin 11% % of revenue by geography: The Americas 53% EMEA 33% Asia/Pacific 13% Revenue growth by geography: The Americas 3% EMEA 2% Asia/Pacific 6% EBIT margin by geography: 2 The Americas 10% EMEA 14% Asia/Pacific 8% Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit 74% EBIT (as reported) 10% Net income 5% D&A 3% Capex 4% Return on tangible equity 36% Tangible equity to assets 29% ∆ shares out (avg) -5%
2007 7.0 9% 7%
2008 7.9 12% 8%
2009 7.3 -7% -2%
2010 7.8 6% 5%
37% 39% 19% 5% 1%
38% 38% 18% 5% 1%
39% 39% 16% 5% 1%
41% 38% 15% 5% 1%
8% 8% 8%
15% 11% 9%
-4% -6% -20%
12% 5% -1%
13% 13% 2% 11% 11%
14% 12% 3% 3% 10%
10% 10% -5% 0% 7%
13% 14% 2% -1% 11%
51% 35% 14%
47% 38% 15%
47% 36% 18%
44% 37% 19%
3% 16% 13%
4% 21% 21%
-8% -13% 9%
1% 9% 16%
9% 13% 9%
6% 14% 13%
3% 9% 13%
5% 18% 14%
75% 11% 6% 3% 4% 67% 21% -5%
75% 10% 6% 3% 5% 80% 16% -5%
74% 6% 3% 3% 4% 29% 18% 1%
77% 10% 6% 3% 3% 49% 22% 1%
After returns and charges associated with restructuring activities. Excludes restructuring charges. Corporate costs are allocated to segments.
MAJOR HOLDERS Shares outstanding: 121 million class A shares (EL; one vote per share) and 78 million class B shares (not listed; 10 votes per share). Lauder family members own all class B shares. Economic stake: Non-Lauder insiders 1% | Lauder 40%+ | Cap World 5% | FMR 4% | Vanguard 3% | State Street 2%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE Estée Lauder has pioneered the prestige beauty business worldwide for over 60 years. The durability, global appeal and aspirational quality of the company’s brands such as Estée Lauder, Clinique and MAC should ensure sustained profitability and growth for many years to come. While recent margin improvement has been remarkable, the potential for further gains appears limited. Shares are fairly valued trading at a 5% forward earnings yield based on non-GAAP EPS guidance for FY11. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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…additional insight into Estee Lauder: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
10x reported FY10 EBIT (10% EBIT margin)
12x FY10 EBIT excluding special items (12% EBIT margin)
14x EBIT (based on 13% EBIT margin on FY10 revenue)
EBIT
$790
$900
$1,000
Fair value multiple
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
$7,899
$10,800
$14,000
(108)
(108)
(108)
($ in millions) Valuation Methodology1
Estimated Enterprise Value Less: Net debt Estimated fair value of the equity of Estee Lauder2
$7.8 billion
$10.7 billion
$13.9 billion
$38 per share
$53 per share
$69 per share
1
The company’s EBIT margin goal is 12.5-13.5% by FY13.
2
Based on 203 million shares outstanding.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
COST STRUCTURE OPTIMIZATION TARGETED BY MANAGEMENT Objective: Achieve $450-550 million in annual cost savings by 2013 • • • • • • •
Aggressively improve cost of goods Continue to roll out Strategic Modernization Initiative (SMI) / SAP enterprise-wide software Reduce SKUs Optimize distribution centers Realize indirect procurement savings Outsource select support functions Organizational savings
Source: Company presentation dated February 2010.
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…additional insight into Estee Lauder: SLIDES FROM COMPANY PRESENTATION, FEBRUARY 2010
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August 27, 2010 – Page 89 of 175
GameStop (GME) – Centaur Grapevine, TX, 817-424-2000
Services: Retail (Technology), Member of S&P 500 Trading Data
www.gamestop.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $18.81 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $17.12 - $28.62 Market value: $2.8 billion Enterprise value: $3.0 billion Shares out: 150.4 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 1/31/11
Latest $0.39 1.50 2.63
Month Ago $0.39 1.50 2.63
# of Ests 17 17 16
P/E FYE 1/30/10 P/E FYE 1/31/11 P/E FYE 1/31/12 P/E FYE 1/30/13 EV/ LTM revenue
FYE 1/31/12
2.86
2.87
12
EV/ LTM EBIT
Insider ownership: 8%
FYE 1/30/13
2.85
2.85
4
P / tangible book
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
11.0%
11.0%
3
Insider sales (last six months): 4 Institutional ownership: >80%
EPS Surprise 8/19/10
Actual $0.26
Estimate $0.27
8x 7x 7x 7x 0.3x 5x 3.9x
Greenblatt Criteria LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
21% 87%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
1/31/04 1,579 433 104 64 0.53 113 71 65 7 205 473 321 902 0 284 0 308 0 594 >100%
1/29/05 1,843 509 99 61 0.53 109 146 98 48 171 425 321 916 12 314 24 373 0 543 93%
Fiscal Years Ended 1/28/06 2/3/07 2/2/08 3,092 5,319 7,094 872 1,471 1,814 185 328 489 101 158 288 0.81 1.00 1.75 116 150 158 291 420 494 111 134 176 181 286 318 402 652 857 1,122 1,440 1,795 1,392 1,404 1,417 3,016 3,350 3,776 13 12 0 888 1,087 1,261 964 843 575 1,901 1,974 1,914 0 0 0 1,115 1,376 1,862 93% >100% >100%
1/31/09 8,806 2,270 673 398 2.38 163 549 183 366 578 1,818 2,081 4,484 0 1,563 546 2,213 0 2,271 >100%
1/30/10 9,078 2,435 632 377 2.25 165 644 164 480 905 2,127 2,206 4,955 0 1,656 447 2,232 0 2,723 >100%
LTME 7/31/10 9,241 2,485 629 384 2.34 161 n/a n/a n/a 289 1,586 1,924 4,363 0 1,154 448 1,720 0 2,643 87%
FQE 8/1/09 1,739 495 71 39 0.23 165 8 40 (32) 198 1,444 1,948 4,282 0 1,096 496 1,705 0 2,577 n/m
FQE 7/31/10 1,799 517 70 40 0.26 151 n/a n/a n/a 289 1,586 1,924 4,363 0 1,154 448 1,720 0 2,643 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Jul 02 © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 90 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW GameStop retails video games and entertainment software.
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
The company operates 6,549 stores under GameStop and EB Games banners. It also owns Game Informer, the #1 trade magazine in the U.S. with 4.0 million subscribers.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
•
•
World’s largest video game and entertainment software retailer with an estimated 16% share of the $41 billion market* for new video game products and PC entertainment software represented by the countries in which the company operates. Shares trade at a mid-teens earnings yield based on diluted EPS guidance of $2.58-2.68 for the fiscal year ended January 2011. Valuation may not adequately reflect GameStop’s leading market positions, modest leverage ($158 million of net debt as of July 31), consistent cash generation, and resilient same-store sales trends in a tough market. Guiding for same-store sales growth of 3-6% y-y for the October quarter and flat to up 2% for the year ended January 2011. July quarter same-store sales growth was +0.9% y-y (April quarter: -1.6%). “Reviewing the use of excess cash to enhance shareholder returns” based on comments on August 19. GameStop repurchased and retired 2.5 million shares at $20.93/share in the July quarter. Higher-margin, used video game titles represent nearly one third of revenue. Used titles, averaging a price of $18 versus $43 for new titles, have nearly 50% gross margins, over twice as high as new titles. Industry growth driven by new technology such as Microsoft’s Xbox 360 in 2005, Nintendo’s Wii and Sony’s PlayStation 3, both in 2006. New game platforms are historically created every five years.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
•
Digital distribution threat. A proliferation of Internet-based and “free-to-play” gaming is a major long-term threat. The July acquisition of online community gaming company Kongregate and the ongoing roll-out of downloadable, in-store content offerings appear defensive moves. Growth and margins may come under pressure over time. Strong category competition includes mass merchants (Wal-Mart), consumer electronics chains (Best Buy), video rental firms (Blockbuster) and specialty and online companies (Amazon.com). Powerful suppliers. GameStop depends on suppliers’ product cycles and marketing support.
1
FYE January 31 2006 2007 ∆ same-store sales -1% 12% ∆ revenue 68% 72% ∆ stores, ending 146% 6% Revenue ($bn) 3.1 5.3 % of revenue by geography: U.S.3 88% 80% Europe 6% 8% Canada 4% 6% Australia 3% 5% Revenue growth by geography: U.S. 49% 58% Europe 616% 151% EBIT margin by geography: U.S. 6% 7% Europe 0% 0% Total EBIT margin 6% 6% % of revenue by product: New game hardware 16% 20% New game software 40% 38% Used game products 26% 25% Other4 17% 17% Revenue growth by major product: New game hardware 141% 113% New game software 60% 62% Used game products 58% 63% Gross margin by major product: New game hardware 6% 7% New game software 21% 21% Used game products 47% 50% Total gross margin 28% 28% Selected items as % of revenue: SG&A 19% 19% Net income 3% 3% D&A 2% 2% Capex 4% 3% Inventory turnover 5.0 5.2 Tang. equity/assets -3% -9% ∆ shares out (avg) 6% 29%
2008 25% 33% 10% 7.1
2009 12% 24% 18% 8.8
2010 -8% 3% 4% 9.1
YTD 7/31/102 0% 4% 3% 3.9
77% 11% 7% 6%
73% 14% 6% 6%
69% 20% 5% 6%
n/a n/a n/a n/a
27% 72%
19% 67%
-3% 40%
n/a n/a
7% 4% 7%
8% 5% 8%
8% 4% 7%
n/a n/a 5%
24% 39% 22% 15%
21% 42% 23% 14%
19% 41% 26% 13%
17% 40% 29% 14%
55% 39% 21%
11% 32% 28%
-6% 1% 18%
-5% 10% 2%
7% 21% 49% 26%
6% 21% 48% 26%
7% 21% 47% 27%
7% 21% 47% 28%
17% 4% 2% 2% 6.0 10% 6%
16% 5% 2% 2% 5.8 13% 3%
18% 4% 2% 2% 5.2 14% 1%
21% 3% 2% 2% 6.0 20% -7%
Major acquisitions include EB in 2005 and Micromania in 2008. Approximately 40% of sales and >50% of EBIT is generated in the F4Q. 3 U.S. includes the website www.gamestop.com and Game Informer magazine. 4 Includes PC software. All other lines refer to video game products. 2
MAJOR HOLDERS Director Riggio 6% | Other insiders 2% | BlackRock 6% | Vanguard 5% | GS 4% | State Street 4% | Adage 3%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends? *
Source: NPD, IDG and GfK data for 2009 as reported in GameStop’s 10K.
THE BOTTOM LINE Despite a market-leading position in an attractive retail category, GameStop faces long-term challenges represented by the proliferation of Internet-based and “free-to-play” gaming. Comparisons with other media including music, movies, and books come to mind. This is compounded in the near-term by uncertainty regarding consumers’ ability to spend on discretionary items including video games products. While shares offer a seemingly attractive mid-teens earnings yield, valuation is not yet compelling. More aggressive return of capital instead of investments to advance a “digital strategy” could change our view. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 91 of 175
…additional insight into GameStop: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE ($ in millions) Valuation Methodology1
Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
8x low-end of diluted EPS guidance for FY ended January 2011
10x mid-point of diluted EPS guidance for FY ended January 2011
12x high-end of diluted EPS guidance for FY ended January 2011
$2.58
$2.63
$2.68
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
$21 per share
$26 per share
$32 per share
Diluted EPS (FY ended January 2011) Fair value multiple Estimated fair value of the equity of GameStop 1
The company's diluted EPS guidance for the fiscal year ended January 2011 is $2.58-2.68.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
MARKET SIZE AND IMPLIED GAMESTOP MARKET SHARE, 2008-2009 1 2008 ($bn)
2009 ($bn)
2009/08 Growth
U.S.
$22
$20
-9%
Europe
20
18
-12%
Canada
2
2
-14%
Australia
2
2
5%
Total
$46
$41
-10%
7
7
15%
16%
Geography
GameStop revenue excluding used sales Implied GameStop market share 1
Source NPD Group IDG NPD Group GfK
Based on sales of video game products and PC entertainment software (excluding sales of used products) as reported in GameStop’s 10-K filings.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
SALES GROWTH, FY 2000 – FY 2010
Source: Company presentation, July 2010.
EPS GROWTH, FY 2000 – FY 2010
Source: Company presentation, July 2010.
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…additional insight into GameStop: SLIDES FROM COMPANY PRESENTATION, JULY 2010
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August 27, 2010 – Page 93 of 175
MBIA (MBI) – Fairfax , Fairholme Armonk, NY, 914-273-4545
Financial: Insurance (Property & Casualty) Trading Data
www.mbia.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $9.06 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $3.19 - $10.92 Market value: $1.8 billion Enterprise value: $15.8 billion Shares out: 200.4 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest -$0.52 -0.48 -1.41
Month Ago -$0.28 -0.23 -8.63
# of Ests 2 2 2
FYE 12/31/11
-0.88
0.02
3
Insider ownership: <1%
FYE 12/30/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months): 0 Institutional ownership: 62%
EPS Surprise 8/9/10
Actual $6.32
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
3x n/m n/m n/a 62x
EV/ LTM EBIT
n/m
P / tangible book
0.7x
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate -$0.62
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
n/m n/m
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity
12/31/03 1,886 1,748 1,163 825 5.68 143 1,022 11 1,010 228 0 79 30,301 493 0 10,753 24,151 0 6,150
12/31/04 2,055 1,904 1,171 843 5.80 142 877 8 869 366 0 79 33,036 586 0 10,875 26,478 0 6,559
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 2,296 2,705 0 2,145 2,558 0 1,017 1,133 0 711 819 (1,922) 5.20 5.95 (14.93) 134 133 129 783 661 1,022 9 11 12 774 650 1,010 222 269 264 0 0 0 79 79 79 34,561 39,763 47,415 443 441 5,051 0 0 0 9,608 12,913 14,906 27,970 32,559 43,759 0 0 0 6,592 7,204 3,656
12/31/08 0 0 0 (2,673) (12.11) 221 (156) 11 (167) 2,280 0 77 29,030 6,471 0 8,736 28,036 0 994
12/31/09 2,954 2,008 1,217 623 2.99 208 (2,192) 6 (2,198) 803 0 31 25,685 4,621 0 6,343 23,095 0 2,590
LTME 6/30/10 254 (860) 0 (1,153) (5.55) 207 (1,555) 4 (1,559) 1,495 0 31 33,464 13,098 0 2,365 30,813 0 2,651
FQE 6/30/09 992 1,695 1,503 895 4.30 208 (331) 2 (333) 900 0 77 27,297 0 0 6,653 24,531 0 2,765
FQE 6/30/10 2,078 2,136 1,969 1,295 6.32 204 129 1 128 1,495 0 31 33,464 13,098 0 2,365 30,813 0 2,651
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Jul 01
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August 27, 2010 – Page 94 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA
FYE December 31 2006 Total assets (bn) $40 Selected items as % of assets: Investments and cash 94% Assets of consolidated VIEs 1 Derivative assets 1% All other assets 5% Unearned premiums 8% Loss reserves 1% Investment agreements 31% Medium-term notes 28% Securities sold under repos 0% Debt 3% Derivative liabilities 1% Liabilities of consolidated VIEs 1 All other liabilities 9% Shareholders’ equity 2 18% Selected income statement items ($mn): Premiums earned 744 Net investment income 1,807 Losses and LAE incurred (81) Interest expense (1,184) Book value per share ($) 53.43 Adj. book value per share ($) 75.72 Dividends per share ($) 1.24 Insurance statistical data ($bn): Net debt service out 3 940 Net par amount out 3 618 -1% ∆ shares out (avg) 4
MBIA Inc. is a monoline insurer operating in three segments: U.S. public finance insurance (National): Provides principal and interest payment guarantees on municipal bonds and bonds backed by public-purpose projects. Structured finance & international insurance (MBIA Corp.): Provide principal and interest payment guarantees on global structured finance and non-U.S. public finance obligations. Investment management services: Provides advisory services, asset/liability products and conduits.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
Leading monoline insurer, along with AMBAC. Prior to the implosion of the monoline insurance market, market shares of the top players were as follows: MBIA 29%, AMBAC 23%, FSA 17%, FGIC 13%, RADIAN 5%, Assured 3%.* Established National as separately capitalized company in February 2009, despite litigation by certain debt holders. National is a U.S. public finance-only financial guarantee insurance company that hopes to attract more new underwriting business once the pending litigation is resolved. Bruce Berkowitz buys 11% of MBIA in Q2. “Do they have the wherewithal even if they don’t write another piece of business? Yes,” says Berkowitz. He asserts that regulators have “rigorously tested” MBIA’s loss estimates. He also argues that, “[a]ny firm that kept its promises to its insureds, has a reasonable chance of rebuilding its business.”** MBIA has been repurchasing common stock and debt instruments at a discount to face value, both signaling management’s confidence in MBIA’s staying power and growing per-share intrinsic value (assuming one considers the repurchased securities to be undervalued in the first place).
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
Murky balance sheet. While cleaner than a few years ago, the accounts remain hard to decipher. New issuance volume in structured finance market remains “well below” historical averages due to the credit crisis. “It is unclear how or when the company may be able to re-engage this market.”
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO 2% | Other management insiders <1% | Warburg Pincus 31% | Fairholme 11% | FMR 7% | TCW 5% | Fairfax <1% *
As of September 30, 2007. Sources: Duff & Phelps, S&P, UBS. Source: Bloomberg interview, July 29, http://bit.ly/cBVQRP
2007 $47
2008 $29
2009 $26
1H10 $33
89% 4% 7% 7% 3% 34% 27% 2% 3% 11%
79% 3% 18% 12% 5% 16% 22% 3% 8% 22%
68% 3% 29% 19% 6% 11% 14% 2% 10% 18%
39% 42% 2% 17% 13% 3% 7% 6% 1% 6% 16%
-
-
-
38%
6% 8%
8% 4%
9% 10%
2% 8%
708 2,200 (900) (1,587) 29.16 77.89 1.36
850 1,551 (1,318) (1,172) 4.78 40.06 -
746 655 (864) (475) 12.66 36.35 -
313 229 (142) (165) 13.16 35.76 -
1,022 679 -3%
1,198 787 71%
1,086 713 -6%
n/a n/a -2%
1
The company started breaking out the assets and liabilities of consolidated variable interest entities (VIEs) on its balance sheet in Q1 2010. 2 As of June 30, 2010, preferred stock of a subsidiary amounted to $14 million. 3 Net of reinsurance and other arrangements not accounted for as reinsurance. 4 MBIA issued 95 million shares of stock for $12.15 per share in February 2008. The company has repurchased nearly $1 billion of stock in 2009 and 2010.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
GNW AGO MTG RDN PMI ABK
11.40 17.00 7.40 6.90 3.10 0.50
Market Value ($mn) 5,560 3,120 1,480 570 500 150
MBI
9.10
1,816
Price ($)
RATINGS
Price to Tangible Book .5x .8x .8x .3x .5x n/m
This FY P/E 11x 6x n/m n/m n/m n/a
Next FY P/E 7x 4x 11x n/m n/m n/a
.7x
n/m
n/m
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
FY End Date Dec-31 Dec-31 Dec-31 Dec-31 Dec-31 Dec-31 Dec-31
**
THE BOTTOM LINE The investment case for monoline insurer MBIA seems to rest of three pillars: First, the company has taken huge reserves against future losses, and the balance sheet now roughly conforms to economic reality. Second, the company continued paying out claims throughout the credit crisis, preserving the confidence of its customers and putting it in a position to write new business once market conditions improve. Finally, with adjusted book value of $36 per share, MBIA’s common stock is cheap at a price of less than $10. While this is a logic thesis, it requires too much of a leap of faith for our risk tolerance. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 95 of 175
…additional insight into MBIA: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE 1
Valuation Methodology GAAP book value per share, as of June 30
Base Case
Aggressive
50% discount to adjusted book value per share
Adjusted book value per share
$35.76
$35.76
0.5x
1.0x
$13.16
Fair value multiple Adjusted book value per share, as of June 30
Conservative 50% discount to GAAP book value per share
0.5x 2
Fair value multiple Estimated fair value of the equity of MBIA 3
$1.3 billion
$3.6 billion
$7.2 billion
$6.60 per share
$18 per share
$36 per share
1
This analysis of fair value admittedly leaves much to be desired, as it is based on the static variable of book value rather than some sort of estimate of the company’s normalized earning power. Unfortunately, we were unable to arrive at an estimated of normalized earnings with a satisfactory degree of confidence. Therefore, we frame the fair value range in terms of fractions of GAAP and adjusted book value. It might have been more appropriate to simply forego the above valuation exercise and put MBIA in the proverbial “too difficult” pile.
2 Adjusted book value (ABV) is a non-GAAP measure which includes the net present value of expected future cash inflows and outflows and eliminates certain GAAP timing differences. 3
Based on 200 million shares outstanding.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
ADJUSTED BOOK VALUE PER SHARE – CHANGE FROM DECEMBER 31, 2009 TO JUNE 30, 2010
Historical trend:
1
As reported, when reported for years 2005 and 2006. 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 exclude cumulative unrealized gains (losses) on insured credit derivatives net of credit impairments and unrealized gains (losses) included in Other Comprehensive Income. Source: Company.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 96 of 175
MBIA – BALANCE SHEET BREAKDOWN, as of June 30, 2010 ($ in thousands)
Source: Company.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 97 of 175
Nalco Holding (NLC) – Berkshire , MSD Naperville, IL, 630-305-1000
Basic Materials: Chemical Manufacturing Trading Data
www.nalco.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $23.01 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $16.96 - $29.25 Market value: $3.2 billion Enterprise value: $6.0 billion Shares out: 138.3 million Ownership Data
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $0.40 0.38 1.50
Month Ago $0.40 0.40 1.43
Valuation # of Ests 13 13 14
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
52x 15x 13x 12x 1.5x
FYE 12/31/11
1.72
1.68
15
EV/ LTM EBIT
11x
Insider ownership: 1%
FYE 12/30/12
2.00
1.99
6
P / tangible book
n/m
Insider buys (last six months): 3
LT growth
18.3%
21.0%
3
Insider sales (last six months): 0 Institutional ownership: 89%
EPS Surprise 7/27/10
Actual $0.41
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate $0.34
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
9% 44%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 2,767 1,394 (23) (182) (2.01) 91 233 101 132 100 976 3,909 6,164 52 529 3,263 5,095 0 1,069 -2%
12/31/04 3,033 1,455 149 (139) (1.42) 98 238 92 146 33 1,031 3,692 5,934 18 591 3,425 5,224 0 710 12%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 3,312 3,603 3,913 1,471 1,607 1,760 343 433 476 48 99 129 0.33 0.67 0.88 142 143 143 200 285 323 75 93 115 125 191 209 31 37 120 1,049 1,167 1,389 3,424 3,469 3,581 5,552 5,657 5,979 23 150 130 543 719 769 3,244 3,039 3,194 4,847 4,766 4,861 0 0 0 706 891 1,118 27% 34% 35%
12/31/08 4,212 1,834 (12) (343) (2.45) 140 283 133 150 62 1,388 2,777 5,042 94 735 3,130 4,649 0 393 -1%
12/31/09 3,747 1,710 404 61 0.44 138 594 102 492 128 1,245 2,856 4,965 230 926 2,714 4,493 0 472 32%
LTME 6/30/10 4,009 1,855 538 148 1.07 138 413 119 294 149 1,396 2,772 4,997 185 872 2,733 4,531 0 466 44%
FQE 6/30/09 913 410 34 (29) (0.21) 138 118 22 96 201 1,352 2,836 5,082 144 756 3,081 4,634 0 448 n/m
FQE 6/30/10 1,087 494 155 57 0.41 138 102 31 71 149 1,396 2,772 4,997 185 872 2,733 4,531 0 466 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
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August 27, 2010 – Page 98 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA
Nalco provides products and services for the treatment of water, air and process infrastructure for various end-markets.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
•
•
•
#1 global provider of water treatment services to industrial end-markets.* Nalco has 18% share of the $6.5 billion global market, which includes cooling and boiler water treatment and air emission control. 33% market share in the energy sector, which is a $4.3 billion global market. Products and services include flow assurance, oil/water separation, heavy crude desalting, and traditional water/air treatment. 9% market share in the pulp and paper industry, which is a $7.3 billion global market. Products and services include de-inking chemicals, felt cleaners, wash aids and traditional water and air treatment. Attractive organic growth prospects are driven by global needs for cleaner water, energy conservation, emission control and industrial process efficiencies. Nalco’s ~1,800 patents provide a competitive edge. Stable, cash generative business model. Annuitylike services revenue from process automation and similar offerings complements chemicals/equipment sales. High-teens EBITDA margins and low capital intensity (capex is ~3% of revenue) drive cash flow. Earnings-based valuation understates cash flow as D&A tends to exceed capex by 2-3 percentage points of revenue. Working-capital adjusted, trailing FCF yield is 9% versus a 5% trailing earnings yield. Long-term targets: 6-8% revenue growth (0-1% from M&A), ~10% adjusted EBITDA growth (target adj. EBITDA margin is 20% versus trailing margin of 18%), and 20+% adjusted EPS growth.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
•
*
Competition may erode Nalco’s market share. Competitors include water technologies divisions of industrial conglomerates such as GE and Siemens, business segments of Akzo Nobel and BASF, as well as industry-focused providers such as Baker Petrolite in energy or Kemira in pulp and paper. 2H10 organic revenue growth to slow down to “mid-single-digits” from the 11% y-y growth rate in 1H10. 1H10 benefited from oil dispersant sales related to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in April 2010. $2.8 billion of net debt. Net debt to EBITDA is 3.8x based on EBITDA guidance of $735+ million for 2010. Nearest major debt maturity is in 2013.
Excluding energy and pulp/paper industries. Based on Nalco data for 2009.
1
FYE December 31 2005 2006 ∆ revenue 9% 9% Components of y-y revenue growth: organic growth 7% 8% net M&A 1% 0% currency impact 1% 1% Revenue ($bn) 3.3 3.6 % of revenue by segment:1 Water 45% 45% Energy 27% 29% Paper 21% 20% Other 7% 6% Revenue growth by segment: Water 6% 8% Energy 12% 17% Paper 5% 4% EBIT margin by segment:2 Water 24% 25% Energy 22% 23% Paper 21% 19% Corporate -8% -8% Total EBIT margin 11% 12% % of revenue by geography: U.S. 45% 45% International 55% 55% Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit 45% 45% R&D3 2% 2% Net income 1% 3% D&A 6% 6% Capex 2% 3% Receivables4 19% 19% Inventories4 9% 9% Employees (k) 10.9 11.1 Δ employees 3.6% 2.1% ∆ shares out (avg) 45% 1%
2007 9%
2008 8%
2009 -11%
YTD 6/30/10 15%
5% 0% 4% 3.9
8% -2% 2% 4.2
-7% -1% -3% 3.7
11% 1% 4% 2.0
45% 33% 20% 3%
46% 36% 18% 0%
44% 38% 18% 0%
42% 41% 18% 0%
9% 21% 8%
9% 18% 0%
-15% -6% -12%
11% 20% 12%
24% 24% 18% -7% 13%
19% 21% 13% -6% 13%
19% 23% 17% -8% 12%
19% 25% 16% -7% 14%
45% 55%
45% 55%
45% 55%
n/a n/a
45% 2% 3% 5% 3% 21% 9% 11.6 4.1% 0%
44% 2% -8% 5% 3% 18% 10% 11.8 1.8% -2%
46% 2% 2% 5% 3% 18% 8% 11.6 -1.5% -1%
46% 2% 4% 4% 3% 18% 9% n/a n/a 0%
Beginning in 2008, sales from the previously reported Other segment have been consolidated into the three primary reporting segments. All three segments provide water treatment and process chemicals, with the difference being the end-market served. The Water segment serves the industrial, institutional, and municipal markets other than the petroleum/petrochemical and pulp/paper industries served by the Energy and Paper segments, respectively. 2 Excludes restructuring costs, impairments and gain on divestiture. 2005-07 includes contribution from the "Other" segment within the EBIT margin totals. 3 YTD figure is estimated. 4 YTD figures are based on trailing revenue.
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders <1% | Berkshire 7% | MS 6% | Vanguard 4% | Legg Mason 3% | Shapiro 3% | Invesco 3% | BlackRock 3%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE It is not surprising that Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is Nalco’s largest shareholder. Nalco has an attractive business model based on leading positions in growing end-markets, patent-protected technology, and non-discretionary, service-oriented sales. The result is a high-margin, cash-flow generative business that has good growth opportunities for capital reinvestment at high rates of return. Shares are modestly undervalued at a high-single digit trailing FCF yield and decent prospects for future growth in free cash flow. While competition may eventually erode Nalco’s “moat,” this could be a long time away. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 99 of 175
…additional insight into Nalco Holding: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
10x 2010E adjusted EBITDA minus capex
12x 2010E adjusted EBITDA minus capex
14x 2010E adjusted EBITDA minus capex
2010 adjusted EBITDA guidance2
$735
$735
$735
Estimated normalized capex
120
120
120
($ in millions) Valuation Methodology1
2010 estimated EBITDA-capex
$615
$615
$615
Fair value multiple
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
$6,147
$7,377
$8,606
(2,769)
(2,769)
(2,769)
(398)
(398)
(398)
$2,980 million
$4,210 million
$5,439 million
$21 per share
$30 per share
$39 per share
10%
7%
5%
Estimated Enterprise Value Less: Net debt Less: Net post-retirement liability Estimated fair value of the equity of Nalco3 4
Implied trailing FCF yield 1
We use EBITDA-capex instead of EBIT as Nalco's capex has consistently been below reported D&A. Capex has historically been ~3% of revenue, whereas D&A has been 5-6% of revenue. Our estimate of normalized capex is based on 3.0% of trailing revenue.
2
Nalco expects adjusted EBITDA to "exceed" $735 million in 2010. Adjusted EBITDA excludes restructuring expenses and other special items.
3
Based on 139 million shares outstanding.
4
Based on free cash flow of $289 million for the year ended June 2010. While Nalco is guiding for 2010 FCF to "exceed" $150 million, this includes an approximate negative working capital impact of $115 million in the first half of 2010. Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
SELECTED MARKET SHARE DATA, 2005-2009 ($ in billions) Water Services Representative end-markets Global market size Nalco market share Nalco market position Energy Services Representative end-markets Global market size Nalco market share Nalco market position Paper Services Representative end-markets Global market size Nalco market share Nalco market position
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Food, Beverage, Buildings, Hotels, Hospitals, Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Manufacturing, Metals, Power Utilities, Mining, Marine $6.6 19% #1
$6.9 18% #1
$7.4 18% #1
$7.5 18% #1
$6.5 18% #1
Fine Paper, Uncoated Free Sheet, Coated Free Sheet, Newsprint, Tissue and Towel, Containerboard $3.3 29% #1
$3.5 32% #1
$3.9 32% #1
$4.8 32% #1
$4.3 33% #1
Well Stimulation & Completion, Enhanced Oil Recovery, Production, Refining, Petrochemical, Fuel Additives $7.8 9% #3
$8.2 9% #3
$8.5 9% #3
$8.5 9% #3
$7.3 9% #3
"Source: Nalco. Nalco uses industry publications, marketing research company survey data and internal estimates of specialty chemical and service market sizes in the water treatment, paper services and energy services marketplaces as the basis for its market size estimates. Management adjusts these estimates to eliminate sales from product offerings that it does not provide nor intend to provide, particularly eliminating pure commodity chemical categories from inclusion in our market size estimates. In establishing market size, water treatment sales to paper and energy producers are subtracted from the water treatment market and added to the relevant paper and energy market size estimates. Water treatment equipment and various process applications in the Water Services segment are not included in market size estimates. Nalco sales in these areas are also excluded from market share figures. Management estimates of market growth rates are used to adjust market size in years between marketing research company estimate updates."
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August 27, 2010 – Page 100 of 175
…additional insight into Nalco: SLIDES FROM COMPANY PRESENTATION, AUGUST 2010
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August 27, 2010 – Page 101 of 175
NCR Corp. (NCR) – Greenlight Duluth, GA, 937-445-1936
Technology: Electronic Instruments & Controls, Member of S&P MidCap 400 Trading Data
www.ncr.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $12.61 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $9.18 - $16.00 Market value: $2.0 billion Enterprise value: $1.6 billion Shares out: 160.5 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $0.33 0.52 1.41
Month Ago $0.31 0.54 1.39
# of Ests 7 7 7
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
n/m 9x 8x 8x 0.3x
FYE 12/31/11
1.66
1.63
8
EV/ LTM EBIT
20x
Insider ownership: 2%
FYE 12/30/12
1.58
n/a
1
P / tangible book
3.5x
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months): 0 Institutional ownership: 76%
EPS Surprise 7/22/10
Actual $0.35
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate $0.27
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
5% 9%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 5,598 1,534 130 58 0.30 190 441 229 212 689 2,422 105 5,197 3 1,579 307 3,322 0 1,875 15%
12/31/04 5,984 1,616 233 290 1.51 188 347 165 182 750 2,633 124 5,554 2 1,724 307 3,468 0 2,086 27%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 4,561 4,582 4,970 936 927 1,040 120 152 219 529 382 274 1.67 0.83 0.94 185 180 180 514 482 374 92 144 112 422 338 262 810 947 952 2,927 3,332 3,088 129 91 84 5,287 5,227 4,780 2 1 1 1,645 1,770 1,530 305 306 307 3,252 3,346 3,023 0 0 0 2,035 1,881 1,757 14% 17% 24%
12/31/08 5,315 1,183 322 229 1.38 165 396 138 258 711 2,557 99 4,255 301 1,693 7 3,815 0 440 38%
12/31/09 4,612 883 73 (33) (0.21) 159 223 182 41 451 2,299 122 4,094 4 1,382 11 3,530 0 564 9%
LTME 6/30/10 4,686 902 81 (29) (0.25) 159 267 229 38 447 2,349 99 4,125 0 1,370 10 3,447 0 678 9%
FQE 6/30/09 1,124 229 39 23 0.13 159 27 36 (9) 407 2,239 100 3,819 0 1,312 7 3,368 0 451 n/m
FQE 6/30/10 1,177 241 31 31 0.12 160 95 56 39 447 2,349 99 4,125 0 1,370 10 3,447 0 678 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
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August 27, 2010 – Page 102 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
NCR manufactures, sells and services ATMs, retail point-ofsale and checkout terminals, and other self-service kiosks.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
•
• • •
#1 global ATM service provider. NCR services 350,000+ ATMs in 100+ countries. Sales of ATMs and related products have historically accounted for 50%+ of product revenue. The financial services vertical is a ~$9 billion addressable market globally. Strong presence in retail vertical, a ~$10 billion addressable market globally. NCR is #2 in retail POS behind IBM and #1 in self-service checkout equipment (~65k units installed at ~150 retailers). Expanding into DVD rental kiosks, which NCR expects will represent 50% of the ~$8 billion DVD rental market by 2013. NCR aims for 10,000 kiosks installed by yearend 2010 for a cost of $85 million. EBITDA is expected at $25-35 million in 2011. Pension accounting and DVD start-up costs mask profitability of core ATM/retail business. NCR is guiding for EBIT of $340-360 million in 2010, excluding $215 million of pension expense and $30 million of costs related to the DVD roll-out. Net cash and FCF generation give NCR ability to deal with pension liability. Net cash was $437 million June 30. Core ATM/retail business should generate ~$200 million of FCF in 2010. Increased share repurchase authorization by $210 million in July, to $250 million in total. “Orders increased 9% year over year” in 2Q10. NCR could benefit from a recovery in customers’ capex budgets and upgrades to the installed base. Services revenue (~50% of total) is largely recurring, offsetting volatility in product sales.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
•
$1.5 billion unfunded employee benefit liability at yearend 2009. NCR has a $5.4 billion pension obligation ($1.1 billion funding shortfall at 5.4% discount rate) and is contributing $110 million of cash in 2010. Post-retirement and post-employment liabilities total roughly $400 million. Will expansion into DVD kiosks create value? NCR aspires to become “the leading global provider of self-service entertainment solutions.” It faces strong competition from incumbent Redbox. Competitors include IBM, HP, Fujitsu and “vertical” rivals (Diebold, Wincor, SITA, Coinstar).
1
FYE December 31 2005 Revenue ($bn) 4.6 ∆ revenue -2% % of revenue by type: Products 53% Services 47% Revenue growth by type: Products 1%3 Services 0%3 % of revenue by segment: Americas 48% EMEA 35% Asia Pacific/Japan 17% Revenue growth by segment: Americas 4%3 EMEA 0%3 Asia Pacific/Japan -6%3 Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit 21% R&D 3% EBIT (as reported) 3% EBIT (ex. pension costs) 7% Net income 7% D&A 2% Capex2 2% Return on tangible equity 17%3 Tangible equity to assets 36%3 ∆ shares out (avg) -1%
2006 4.6 0%
2007 5.0 8%
2008 5.3 7%
2009 4.6 -13%
1H10 2.2 3%
53% 47%
54% 46%
54% 46%
48% 52%
48% 52%
0% 1%
11% 6%
6% 8%
-22% -3%
6% 1%
46% 37% 18%
43% 38% 18%
43% 39% 18%
44% 36% 20%
44% 36% 20%
-5% 5% 7%
2% 14% 13%
6% 8% 7%
-11% -20% -4%
2% 2% 11%
20% 3% 3% 7% 3% 2% 3% 8%3 36%3 -3%
21% 3% 4% 7% 3% 2% 2% 10% 35% 0%
22% 3% 6% 8% 4% 2% 3% 23% 23% -8%
19% 3% 2% 7% -1% 3% 4% -8% 10% -4%
20% 4% 1% 6% 0% 3% 5% 0% 12% 1%
Financials exclude Teradata (spun-off in 2007), unless noted otherwise. YTD figures exclude discontinued operations tied to certain environmental liabilities. 2 Includes additions to capitalized software. 3 Includes Teradata business.
•
Exposed to financials, retailers. That said, NCR benefits from trend toward self-service checkout.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
DBD CSTR NCR
MV ($mn) 1,790 1,540 2,020
EV ($mn) 1,980 1,740 1,580
EV / Rev. .7x 1.3x .3x
P/ Tang. Book 3.3x 7.9x 3.5x
This FY P/E 13x 24x 9x
Next FY P/E 12x 17x 8x
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Nuti 2% | Other insiders <1% | Greenlight 5% | FMR 5% | Thornburg 5% | LSV 4% | Vanguard 4% | SAC 2%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends? *
1
The large pension deficit more than offsets NCR’s net cash position.
THE BOTTOM LINE Large accounting losses on pension obligations and start-up losses related to the new DVD kiosk business may lead investors to miss strong underlying cash generation at NCR. The core ATM and retail-based operations benefit from a large installed base, which provides recurring service income and potential replacement product revenue. While the outsized pension plan represents a major risk, the current valuation more than offsets for it: even if pension and related liabilities are taken at their accounting value of $1.5 billion (likely overstated given current low interest rates and depressed asset values), investors are “getting” the core ATM/retail business at just 8x 2010 estimated EBIT, with no value attached to the DVD kiosk opportunity. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 103 of 175
…additional insight into NCR: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
($ in millions)
8x low-end of 2010 EBIT guidance for core business; zero value for DVD Kiosks; 100% of net retirement benefits liability per 12/09 balance sheet
Valuation Methodology
Base Case 10x mid-point of 2010 EBIT guidance for core business; 8x low-end of 2011 EBITDA guidance for DVD Kiosks; 75% of net retirement benefits liability per 12/09 balance sheet
Aggressive 12x high-end of 2010 EBIT guidance for core business; 10x high-end of 2011 EBITDA guidance for DVD Kiosks; 50% of net retirement benefits liability per 12/09 balance sheet
Value of Core Business (ATM & Retail Terminals): 2010E EBIT
$340
$350
$360
Fair value multiple
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
$2,720
$3,500
$4,320
Estimated Enterprise Value of Core Business
Value of DVD Kiosk Business: 2011E EBITDA
$25
$35
Fair value multiple
8.0x
10.0x
$0
$200
$350
$2,720
$3,700
$4,670
437
437
437
Estimated Enterprise Value of DVD Kiosk Business
Estimated Enterprise Value of Operating Businesses Plus: Net cash
(1,466)
(1,100)
(733)
$1,691 million
$3,038 million
$4,374 million
$11 per share
$19 per share
$27 per share
Less: Estimated retirement benefits liability Estimated fair value of the equity of NCR1
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
NON-PENSION OPERATING INCOME, 2005-2010E
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 104 of 175
…additional insight into NCR: COMPONENTS OF INTRINSIC VALUE, AS SEEN BY MANAGEMENT
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
MANAGEMENT’S PLAN TO ADDRESS “VALUATION GAP”
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 105 of 175
Service Corp. International (SCI) – Southeastern Houston, TX, 713-522-5141
Services: Personal Services, Member of S&P MidCap 400 Trading Data
www.sci-corp.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $7.97 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $6.24 - $9.74 Market value: $2.0 billion Enterprise value: $3.7 billion Shares out: 246.8 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $0.14 0.16 0.57
Month Ago $0.13 0.16 0.55
# of Ests 5 5 5
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
16x 14x 13x 12x 1.7x
FYE 12/31/11
0.63
0.63
5
EV/ LTM EBIT
11x
Insider ownership: 5%
FYE 12/30/12
0.68
0.67
1
P / tangible book
9.9x
Insider buys (last six months): 1
LT growth
10.0%
10.0%
1
Insider sales (last six months): 5 Institutional ownership: 80%
EPS Surprise 7/28/10
Actual $0.15
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate $0.13
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
10% 12%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 2,313 356 221 85 0.23 300 374 116 259 239 673 1,195 7,725 183 669 1,519 6,198 0 1,527 8%
12/31/04 1,826 328 206 111 0.36 319 94 96 (1) 288 537 1,169 8,219 78 315 1,189 6,370 0 1,849 8%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 1,717 1,753 2,285 303 350 467 178 179 331 (128) 57 248 0.18 0.18 0.84 302 293 286 313 324 356 99 98 157 214 227 199 447 40 169 613 238 421 1,124 1,431 1,316 7,545 9,729 8,932 21 46 37 273 408 426 1,187 1,913 1,820 5,963 8,135 7,440 0 0 0 1,582 1,595 1,492 7% 7% 11%
12/31/08 2,156 419 293 97 0.37 258 350 154 196 128 356 1,288 8,111 49 327 1,821 6,818 0 1,293 10%
12/31/09 2,054 421 327 123 0.49 252 372 84 288 180 378 1,318 8,891 68 366 1,841 7,408 0 1,483 11%
LTME 6/30/10 2,115 441 350 137 0.54 252 347 83 264 152 346 1,284 8,806 27 334 1,836 7,322 0 1,484 12%
FQE 6/30/09 514 102 71 23 0.09 251 70 19 51 170 387 1,172 8,235 28 320 1,727 6,875 0 1,360 n/m
FQE 6/30/10 555 109 96 40 0.16 252 77 23 54 152 346 1,284 8,806 27 334 1,836 7,322 0 1,484 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Jul 01
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August 27, 2010 – Page 106 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
Service Corp. provides deathcare products and services.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
•
•
Largest North American provider of deathcare products and services. As of June 30, the company owned and operated 1,412 funeral homes and 382 cemeteries in the U.S. Canada and Puerto Rico. Low valuation relative to FCF.* Average free cash flow was $265 million in 2007-09 excluding special items. Based on the midpoint of 2010 FCF guidance of $245-265 million, recent yield is in the low-teens. Industry consolidation may offer attractive reinvestment opportunities as 80% of the $18 billion industry remains represented by family operators. The company is #1 with ~12% market share, which is more than four times that of the next competitor. Competitive moat includes the Dignity Memorial brand, scale, and owned cemetery/funeral home locations (90% of real estate is owned). 59% of the ~26,000 acres of cemetery land is developed. ~$6.5 billion backlog of future revenue from presold merchandise and services as of June 30. This provides revenue visibility and enables the company to raise equity returns through leverage. Repurchased 6.2 million shares for $54 million in 1H10 at an average cost per share of $8.76. The company continues to repurchase shares in 2H10. Buybacks should be value-accretive at recent prices.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
• •
Same-store funeral volume declined 3% y-y in 1H10, on top of a 7% decline in 2009. While higher pricing is offsetting the impact on revenue, organic growth remains challenged. A rising proportion of cremations may represent a long-term headwind (41% of funerals in 2009 versus 38% in 2007). M&A-driven growth increases execution risk. That said, the company appears to have a good track record of integrating acquisitions. $1.7 billion of net debt (3.4x trailing EBITDA). Earliest significant debt maturity is not until 2013.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
STEI STON CSV SCI
MV ($mn) 470 400 80 1,970
EV ($mn) 750 590 310 3,680
EV / Rev. 1.5x 3.3x 1.7x 1.7x
P/ Tang. Book 2.7x 3.0x n/m 9.9x
This FY P/E 16x 16x 9x 14x
Next FY P/E 12x n/m 8x 13x
1
FYE December 31 2005 Revenue ($bn) 1.7 ∆ revenue -6% % of revenue by segment: Funeral2 67% Cemetery3 33% Revenue growth by segment: Funeral -8% Cemetery -2% Gross margin by segment: Funeral 19% Cemetery 15% Total gross margin 18% % of revenue by geography:4 U.S. 93% Canada 7% % of revenue by type: Merchandise5 52% Services 44% Other 4% Revenue growth by major type: Merchandise n/a Services n/a Selected items as % of revenue: EBIT6 13% Net income 3% D&A7 6% Capex 6% Return on tangible equity 10% Tangible equity to assets 8% ∆ shares out (avg) -5%
2006 1.8 2%
2007 2.3 30%
2008 2.2 -6%
2009 2.1 -5%
1H10 1.1 6%
66% 34%
67% 33%
68% 32%
68% 32%
69% 31%
0% 5%
31% 29%
-3% -11%
-6% -3%
6% 7%
21% 18% 20%
20% 21% 20%
21% 16% 19%
22% 17% 21%
22% 18% 20%
93% 7%
91% 9%
90% 10%
91% 9%
90% 9%
47% 50% 4%
45% 51% 4%
44% 52% 4%
44% 52% 4%
44% 52% 5%
-8% 14%
27% 34%
-9% -4%
-4% -5%
9% 3%
15% 3% 7% 6% 13% 5% -3%
14% 11% 8% 7% 78% 4% -2%
15% 5% 8% 7% 48% 3% -10%
16% 6% 8% 4% 62% 3% -2%
16% 7% 8% 4% 89% 2% 1%
Figures are based on continuing operations. 2007 growth reflects the acquisition of Alderwoods in November 2006. YTD figures reflect the acquisition of Keystone (~$125 million of annual revenue) and Palm Mortuaries (~$30 million of annual revenue) effective March 2010 and December 2009. 2 Includes services relating to funerals and cremations, including the use of funeral facilities and motor vehicles and preparation and embalming services. Also includes sales of merchandise, including caskets, burial vaults, cremation receptacles, flowers and other ancillary products. 3 Sells cemetery-related merchandise and services, including stone and bronze memorials, markers, merchandise installations, burial openings and closings and cemetery property interment rights. 4 The company also has a German business which represents <1% of revenue. 5 ~70% of YTD merchandise sales is in the cemetery segment. 6 Excludes gains/losses on divestitures and impairment charges, net. 7 Includes amortization of intangible assets and cemetery property.
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Ryan <1% | Chairman Waltrip 1% | Other insiders 3% | FMR 14% | Southeastern 12% | Barrow 10% | Vanguard 4%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends? *
Earnings-based measures understate cash flow as D&A exceeds capex.
THE BOTTOM LINE Service Corp. is the largest player with 12% market share of the funeral and cemetery industry in North America. The company’s competitive moat includes the Dignity Memorial brand, scale, and owned cemetery/funeral home locations. While returns on invested capital are attractive, the fragmented nature of the market also allows for potentially value-enhancing consolidation opportunities to reinvest incremental capital. With shares trading at a low-teens yield based on the midpoint of 2010 FCF guidance, valuation does not properly reflect the stability of cash flows and opportunities for capital reinvestment. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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…additional insight into Service Corp. International: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
10x estimated normalized FCF
12x estimated normalized FCF
15x estimated normalized FCF
$255
$255
$255
($ in millions) Valuation Methodology Estimated normalized FCF1 Fair value multiple Estimated fair value of the equity of Service Corp.2
10.0x
12.0x
15.0x
$2,550 billion
$3,060 billion
$3,825 billion
$10 per share
$12 per share
$15 per share
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
FREE CASH FLOW, 2002 – Q1 2010 Management expects free cash flow of $205-265 million in 2010. FCF is projected to decline from 2009, as the company anticipates “higher [capex] spending due to Keystone acquisition as well as a return to normalized spending levels.”
Source: Company presentation dated May 2010.
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…additional insight into Service Corp. International: SLIDES FROM COMPANY PRESENTATION, MAY 2010
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August 27, 2010 – Page 109 of 175
Teva Pharma (TEVA) – Blue Ridge , Eagle , Markel , Maverick Petach Tikva, Israel, 972-3-926-7267
Health Care: Biotechnology & Drugs Trading Data
www.tevapharm.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $50.28 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $46.99 - $64.95 Market value: $47.0 billion Enterprise value: $49.2 billion Shares out: 935.0 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $1.27 1.30 4.57
Month Ago $1.27 1.31 4.53
# of Ests 22 20 24
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
FYE 12/31/11
5.12
5.12
18
EV/ LTM EBIT
Insider ownership: 4%
FYE 12/30/12
5.74
5.71
17
P / tangible book
Insider buys (last six months): n/a
LT growth
14.2%
14.8%
11
Insider sales (last six months): n/a Institutional ownership: 59%
EPS Surprise 7/27/10
Actual $1.08
23x 11x 10x 9x 3.3x 16x 13.6x
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate $1.04
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
6% 42%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 3,276 1,519 877 691 1.16 537 627 226 401 1,379 3,716 917 5,916 644 1,695 815 2,627 0 3,289 42%
12/31/04 4,799 2,239 578 332 0.50 613 1,246 311 935 1,041 4,202 3,287 9,632 560 2,204 1,728 4,243 0 5,389 24%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 5,250 8,408 9,408 2,480 4,259 4,877 1,312 801 2,395 1,072 546 1,914 1.59 0.69 2.36 618 756 768 1,370 2,058 1,813 310 390 542 1,060 1,668 1,271 2,211 2,044 2,875 5,505 7,640 9,859 3,097 10,025 10,326 10,387 20,471 23,412 375 742 1,841 2,260 4,071 5,371 1,773 4,585 3,347 4,345 9,329 9,688 0 0 0 6,042 11,142 13,724 47% 22% 46%
12/31/08 11,085 5,968 869 609 0.75 780 3,231 681 2,550 1,907 11,426 16,878 32,920 2,906 8,481 5,475 16,542 0 16,378 13%
12/31/09 13,899 7,367 2,399 2,000 2.23 872 3,373 719 2,654 2,248 12,141 16,727 33,810 1,301 7,602 4,311 14,588 0 19,222 32%
LTME 6/30/10 14,805 8,152 3,074 2,538 2.79 878 3,822 709 3,113 4,878 14,443 15,862 35,185 1,946 8,182 5,071 15,857 0 19,328 42%
FQE 6/30/09 3,400 1,769 702 521 0.58 860 658 151 507 1,803 11,035 16,567 32,251 2,028 7,240 4,718 14,436 0 17,815 n/m
FQE 6/30/10 3,800 2,121 1,075 797 0.88 895 954 136 818 4,878 14,443 15,862 35,185 1,946 8,182 5,071 15,857 0 19,328 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Jul 01
Jul 02
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August 27, 2010 – Page 110 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1 2007 9.4 12%
2008 11.1 18%
2009 13.9 25%
YTD 6/30/10 7.5 14%
75% 11% 8% 6%
7 % 17% 7% 5%
67% 19% 6% 4%
67% 20% 6% 4%
-4%
10% 86% 5% 7%
21% 39% 15% -6%
13% 23% 11% 3%
58% 28% 14%
58% 27% 15%
62% 24% 15%
64% 22% 14%
7% 30% 2%
18% 13% 27%
34% 10% 20%
18% 7% 6%
52% 6% 25% 20% 5% 6% 2%
54% 7% 24% 5% 4% 6% 2%
53% 6% 22% 14% 7% 5% 12%
55% 6% 26% 20% 6% 4% 4%
*
Teva is a pharmaceutical company specializing in generics. In August 2010, Teva completed the €3.8 billion acquisition of Ratiopharm, Germany’s second-largest generics producer.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
• •
•
•
#1 global provider of generic drugs, in terms of both total and new prescriptions. Teva had 22% share of total U.S. generic prescriptions in 2009, up from 17% in 2007. Teva is also #1 in Europe. Aims to achieve $31 billion in revenue and nonGAAP net income of $6.8 billion by 2015. Assuming stable share count, no significant increase in leverage and a 15x earnings multiple, equity fair value could be well over $100 per share by 2015. Benefiting from secular trends including ageing populations, governments’ efforts to expand access to medicine, and payors’ focus on cutting healthcare costs by favoring generics over branded drugs. $150 billion of branded medicines to lose patent protection by 2015. Teva’s generics should be able to capture a material share of this opportunity. Strong U.S. product pipeline, with 206 new drug applications as of mid-July. 134 of these are “Paragraph IV” applications challenging patents of branded products worth $107+ billion annually. ~30% of revenue is from branded drugs, with the majority based on Copaxone, the #1 prescribed treatment for multiple sclerosis. Teva aims to keep higher-margin branded drugs at ~30% of revenue. Vertically integrated through active pharma ingredient manufacturing capability and intellectual property (2,300 granted and pending patents).
1
FYE December 31 2005 2006 Revenue ($bn) 5.3 8.4 ∆ revenue 9% 60% % of revenue by major product line:2 Generics and other3 Innovative products4 90% 93% Respiratory products API5 10% 7% Revenue growth by major product line:2 Generics and other Innovative products 10% 66% Respiratory products API 5% 12% % of revenue by geography: North America 60% 60% Europe 29% 24% International 11% 16% Revenue growth by geography: North America 3% 61% Europe 23% 33% International 16% 127% Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit 47% 51% R&D 7% 6% EBIT6 25% 26% Net income 20% 6% D&A 5% 5% Capex 6% 5% ∆ shares out (avg) 1% 22%
Financials are based on U.S. GAAP. Significant acquisitions during the period include Barr Pharmaceuticals in December 2008 and Ivax in January 2006. No comparable reporting is available for periods prior to 2007. 3 “Other” includes non-promoted branded products, medical devices, over-thecounter products, distributed products, and animal health products. 4 Includes contribution from branded multiple sclerosis treatment Copaxone. 5 Active pharmaceutical ingredients. 6 Excludes settlements, restructurings, impairments, and in-process R&D. 2
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
•
Unrealistic 2015 targets? Teva has given little detail on organic vs. M&A-led growth. Value creation may give way to empire-building. The revenue goal implies ~14% annual organic growth versus 2009. A 22% net margin appears aggressive. Will acquisition of Ratiopharm (and potential other M&A) create value? EV-to-revenue paid is 2.4x based on Ratiopharm’s 2009 revenue. Teva expects deal synergies of “at least” $400 million. Potentially declining Copaxone contribution (18% of revenue and >18% of EBIT in 2009), even prior to U.S. patent expiry in 2014. Sandoz and Mylan have filed applications for generic versions.
* Generics are chemical and therapeutic equivalents of brand-name drugs and are sold at prices substantially below those of their branded counterparts.
13%
MYL WPI TEVA
MV ($mn) 5,430 5,270 47,010
EV ($mn) 9,860 6,280 49,150
EV / Rev. 1.9x 2.0x 3.3x
P/ Tang. Book n/m >99x 13.6x
This FY P/E 11x 12x 11x
Next FY P/E 9x 11x 10x
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Yanai <1% | Chairman Frost 2% | Other insiders 2% | Cap Re 5% | Wellington 3% | FMR 3% | Axa 2%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE Generics leader Teva has set itself ambitious performance goals by 2015, including a doubling of revenue. Rising generic drug penetration worldwide – driven by payors’ focus on controlling healthcare costs and efforts to increase access to affordable medicine – continues to provide a strong tailwind to the company. Combined with a deep product pipeline and leading share in key markets, Teva may yet execute on its stated goals. While shares appear undervalued on this basis, greater use of M&A, the potential for lower Copaxone profits and competition from both generic and branded rivals pose risks. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 111 of 175
…additional insight into Teva Pharma: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
10x LTM EBIT (EBIT excludes special items)
12x LTM EBIT (EBIT excludes special items)
15x 2015E non-GAAP net income (net income based on management strategic plan; share count assumed stable; 10% discount rate)
EBIT (LTM to 6/30/2010)1
$3.7
$3.7
Fair value multiple
10.0x
12.0x
$37.0
$44.4
(2.1)
(2.1)
($ in billions)
Valuation Methodology
Derivation of "conservative" and "base" case fair values:
Estimated Enterprise Value Less: Net debt at 6/30/2010 Derivation of "aggressive" case fair value: 2015E non-GAAP net income (management target)
$6.8
Fair value multiple
15.0x
Estimated Equity Value at year-end 2015
$102.0
Assumed discount rate
10%
PV of Estimated Equity Value at YE2015
$63.5
Estimated fair value of the equity of Teva2 1
$34.9 billion
$42.3 billion
$63.5 billion
$39 per share
$47 per share
$70 per share
EBIT excludes legal settlements, acquisition and restructuring expenses, impairment charges, and purchase of in process R&D.
2
Based on 902 million shares outstanding. Share count assumes exercise of employee stock options and unvested stock units but not the conversion of convertible senior debentures (included in net debt). Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
COPAXONE GLOBAL IN-MARKET SALES ($ in millions)
PIPELINE – PROPRIETARY BRANDED PHARMACEUTICALS
Source: Company factsheet, July 2010.
Source: Company factsheet, July 2010.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 112 of 175
…additional insight into Teva: SLIDES FROM PRESENTATION ON RATIOPHARM ACQUISITION, MARCH 2010
Completed in August [MOI]
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August 27, 2010 – Page 113 of 175
Tree.com (TREE) – Second Curve , Weitz Charlotte, NC, 704-541-5351
Financial: Consumer Financial Services Trading Data
www.tree.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $7.15 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $6.01 - $9.77 Market value: $80 million Enterprise value: $91 million Shares out: 11.2 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest -$0.21 -0.25 -1.13
Month Ago -$0.01 -0.07 -1.13
# of Ests 2 1 2
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
n/m n/m n/m 6x 0.4x
FYE 12/31/11
-0.15
-0.09
2
EV/ LTM EBIT
n/m
Insider ownership: 11%
FYE 12/30/12
1.21
1.32
1
P / tangible book
1.7x
Insider buys (last six months): 1
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months): 1 Institutional ownership: 41%
EPS Surprise 7/29/10
Actual -$0.07
Estimate -$0.46
Greenblatt Criteria LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
n/m n/m
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity
12/31/05 421 355 19 6 0.63 9
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/06 12/31/07 477 346 403 268 14 (540) 9 (550) 0.93 (59.01) 9 9 75 233 13 9 62 224 100 46 505 173 725 249 1,261 444 350 100 426 180 19 0 488 229 0 0 774 215
12/31/08 229 152 (215) (202) (21.59) 9 (42) 4 (46) 74 193 74 284 76 120 0 146 0 138
12/31/09 217 142 (24) (25) (2.32) 11 13 4 9 86 209 70 292 79 143 0 171 0 121
LTME 3/31/10 208 137 (33) (32) (2.99) 11 (13) 5 (18) 73 203 69 285 84 139 0 170 0 115
FQE 3/31/09 57 39 3 3 0.32 10 11 1 11 81 200 74 289 72 119 0 145 0 144
FQE 3/31/10 48 34 (5) (5) (0.44) 11 (15) 2 (17) 73 203 69 285 84 139 0 170 0 115
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Jul 09
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August 27, 2010 – Page 114 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA
Tree.com provides services to U.S. residential real estate market participants through three segments: LendingTree Loans originates and funds residential real estate loans, which it sells into secondary markets within 30 days of funding. Revenue derives from loan sales to investors and from origination fees paid by borrowers. Exchanges consists of online lead generation networks for mainly residential real estate lending. Except for internallyfunded loans, Tree.com acts as an intermediary. Revenue derives from matching and closing fees paid by lenders. Tree.com also operates networks for non-lending verticals. Real Estate consists of brokerage services (RealEstate.com) and an online lead generation network for brokers. Revenue derives from commissions and brokerage fees. Tree.com was spun-off by InterActiveCorp (IACI) in 2008.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
• •
• • • •
Owns well-known online lead generation site LendingTree.com, which gets 1.6 million unique monthly visitors and is the key platform for the LendingTree Loans and Exchanges segments. Does not retain credit risk on funded loans as loans are re-sold into secondary markets on a servicing-released basis within 30 days of funding. Recent valuation implies virtually zero value for the enterprise despite positive YTD EBITDA, excluding special items. Tree.com has significant earning power in more normalized U.S. housing and mortgage markets (2006 EBITDA: ~$50 million). Guiding for adjusted EBITDA of “between breakeven and $4.0 million” in 2H10, implying 2010 total adjusted EBITDA of $4.2-8.2 million. $63 million of unrestricted cash and no debt, excluding loan-related borrowing, as of June 30. Repurchased 487k shares in 1H10 at an average of $7.12/share under a $10 million buyback plan. Chairman and CEO Doug Lebda (40) owns 14%. Lebda, who founded LendingTree in 1996, was COO of IACI prior to the Tree.com spin-off.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
Exposed to ongoing weakness in U.S. residential real estate activity. Internally-funded residential real estate lending and loans matched for third-party lenders are key revenue drivers. Potential spike in long-term interest rates could forestall a recovery in real estate market activity. This would destroy Tree.com’s earning power.
1
FYE December 31 2007 Revenue ($mn) 346 Change (y-y) -27% % of revenue by segment: LendingTree 42% Exchanges 49% Real estate 15% Eliminations1 -7% Revenue growth by segment: LendingTree } -30% Exchanges Real estate -9% Adjusted EBITDA margin by segment:2 LendingTree 21% Exchanges -15% Real estate -2% Corporate -8% Adj. EBITDA margin -6% Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit 77% EBIT3 -15% D&A 8% Capex 3% Tangible equity to assets 2% ∆ shares out (avg) n/m
2008 229 -34%
2009 217 -5%
YTD 6/30/10 94 -21%
43% 51% 16% -9%
54% 40% 13% -7%
56% 51% 9% -16%
-33% -32% -31%
20% -25% -21%
-26% 21% -36%
14% 4% -18% -11% -6%
27% 15% -14% -12% 7%
14% 14% -11% -10% 5%
66% -19% 8% 2% 7% n/m
66% -1% 5% 2% 27% 12%
71% -3% 5% 4% 27% 8%
Relates to inter-segment revenue between LendingTree and Exchanges. Excludes restructuring expense, assets impairments and losses on disposal, non-cash compensation, and litigation loss contingencies and settlements. 3 Excludes all items under footnote 2 except for non-cash compensation. 2
•
•
•
Liable for certain warranties on loans sold such as those related to borrower documentation. A related reserve of $17 million provided by Tree.com as of June 30 may not be sufficient to cover claims. $75 million credit line due in October. Tree.com has $125 million of total warehouse credit lines for working capital. It had $112 million of loans for sale and $91 million of related borrowing at 6/30. Recent diversification into new lead generation verticals under the Tree.com brand may fail. Online lead generation networks in education, insurance, home services, and autos are competitive.
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Lebda 14% | Other insiders 1% | Liberty Media 26% | Second Curve 6% | Portolan 6% | Vanguard 4% | Rima 4%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE Tree.com owns online brands LendingTree.com and RealEstate.com, which provide services for U.S. residential real estate market participants. While demand for its services remains depressed due weak housing and mortgage markets, the company generates positive EBITDA, has a strong balance sheet and capable and incentivized management. This is not adequately reflected by the recent market valuation, which implies the enterprise has virtually zero value. Investors may benefit from an asymmetric risk-reward with limited downside and big upside if real estate market activity returns to more normalized levels. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 115 of 175
…additional insight into Tree.com: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
10x normalized EBITDA-capex (based on midpoint of adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2010)
12x normalized EBITDA-capex (based on high-end of adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2010)
14x normalized EBITDA-capex (based on 2009 adjusted EBITDA)
$6.2
$8.2
$14.2
3
3
3
Normalized EBITDA-capex
$3.2
$5.2
$11.2
Fair value multiple
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
$32
$62
$157
63
63
63
($ in millions) Valuation Methodology1 Normalized EBITDA Less: normalized capex2
Estimated Enterprise Value 3
Plus: Net cash 6/30/2010
Estimated fair value of the equity of Tree.com4
$95 million
$125 million
$220 million
$9 per share
$12 per share
$20 per share
1
The company's guidance for 2010 adjusted EBITDA is $4.2-8.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA excludes restructuring expense, assets impairments and losses on disposal, non-cash compensation, and litigation loss contingencies and settlements. While 2009 adjusted EBITDA of $14.2 million reflects high levels of refinance loan activity in 2009, the number remains far below the ~$50 million of EBITDA generated by the company in 2006. 2
Normalized capex is assumed modestly below the $4 million recorded in 2009. While 2010 capex is running above the 2009 level, this partly reflects investments in new business opportunities including expansion into new industry verticals.
3
Excludes $10 million of restricted cash.
4
Based on 10.7 million shares outstanding.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
ANNUAL REVENUE BY SEGMENT, 2006 – 2010E ($ in millions)
ANNUAL ADJUSTED EBITDA BY SEGMENT, 2006 – 2010E ($ in millions)
*
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
2010 guidance as of June 30, 2010.
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 116 of 175
…additional insight into Tree.com: SLIDES FROM COMPANY PRESENTATION, AUGUST 2010
*
A reconciliation of GAAP EBITDA to adjusted EBITDA is available in the company’s Form 10-K.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 117 of 175
Vodafone (VOD) – Centaur , Eagle , FPA , Kleinheinz , Southeastern Berkshire, EN, United Kingdom, 44-016-353-325
Services: Communications Services Trading Data
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $23.55 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $18.21 - $24.85 Market value: $124.2 billion Enterprise value: $178.5 billion Shares out: 5,274.7 million Ownership Data
This quarter Next quarter FYE 3/31/11
Latest n/a n/a 2.58
Month Ago n/a n/a 2.51
www.vodafone.com Valuation
# of Ests n/a n/a 4
P/E FYE 3/31/10 P/E FYE 3/31/11 P/E FYE 3/30/12 P/E FYE 3/30/13 EV/ LTM revenue
9x 9x 9x 10x 2.6x
FYE 3/30/12
2.61
2.54
4
EV/ LTM EBIT
24x
Insider ownership: <1%
FYE 3/30/13
2.45
2.34
1
P / tangible book
5.0x
Insider buys (last six months): n/a
LT growth
3.5%
3.5%
2
Insider sales (last six months): n/a Institutional ownership: n/a
EPS Surprise n/a
Actual n/a
Estimate n/a
Greenblatt Criteria LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
4% 50%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
3/31/04 52,043 21,863 (6,569) (12,603) (2.12) 5,958 19,993 7,024 12,969 8,979 20,391 145,189 228,167 3,185 23,302 18,957 54,596 0 173,571 n/m
3/31/05 33,141 (9,976) (15,837) (21,327) (2.13) 5,792 17,026 7,720 9,306 5,845 14,595 150,657 228,273 3,106 22,668 20,455 51,792 0 176,481 n/m
Fiscal Years Ended 3/31/06 3/31/07 3/31/08 45,516 48,236 55,019 19,044 19,197 21,072 (21,841) (2,425) 15,581 (33,987) (8,298) 10,328 (4.29) (1.39) 1.94 6,261 5,514 5,302 18,363 16,017 16,243 8,019 7,028 7,286 10,344 8,988 8,957 4,325 11,602 2,635 11,681 19,870 13,529 107,188 87,266 109,069 196,545 169,994 197,370 5,347 7,470 7,028 24,056 29,381 34,076 25,976 27,601 35,144 64,068 65,986 76,341 0 0 0 132,477 104,007 121,029 n/m n/m >100%
3/31/09 63,609 23,533 9,083 4,773 0.90 5,274 18,940 10,806 8,134 7,565 20,205 116,214 236,805 14,925 43,340 49,236 103,185 0 133,620 76%
3/31/10 68,967 23,313 14,702 13,407 2.54 5,260 20,260 10,817 9,443 7,461 22,051 115,159 243,452 17,312 44,378 44,402 103,289 0 140,163 87%
LTME 3/31/10 68,967 23,313 7,348 18,180 2.54 5,260 4,017 3,531 485 7,461 22,051 115,159 243,452 17,312 44,378 44,402 103,289 0 140,163 50%
FQE 3/31/08 28,665 10,555 7,504 5,226 0.98 5,310 8,706 3,840 4,866 2,635 13,529 109,069 197,370 7,028 34,076 35,144 76,341 0 121,029 n/m
FQE 3/31/10 35,220 11,456 5,291 5,932 1.12 5,263 9,824 4,980 4,845 7,461 22,051 115,159 243,452 17,312 44,378 44,402 103,289 0 140,163 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0 Jul 01
Jul 02
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August 27, 2010 – Page 118 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA – EXCL. VERIZON WIRELESS 1
Vodafone provides mobile telephony services globally.
REVENUE (LEFT) AND CUSTOMERS (RIGHT) BY SEGMENT 1 Asia Pacific/ Mideast 15% Africa/ Central Europe 18%
Other 1% Europe 67%
Asia Pacific/ Mideast 43%
Europe 34%
Africa/ Central Europe 23% 1
1
Based on FY 2010 revenue and 331 million customers at June 30, 2010 (figures exclude contribution from associates and investments).
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
• •
•
•
•
331 million mobile customers (+13% y-y) on a consolidated basis. Excluding 65 million customers attributable to minority interests and including 81 million unconsolidated customers, Vodafone has 347 million “proportionate” customers (+10% y-y).* Owns 45% of Verizon Wireless, the #1 wireless operator in the U.S. with 91 million customers. Vodafone does not consolidate the stake and receives only pass-through tax distributions from it. Verizon (VZ) may approve additional cash distributions from Verizon Wireless, leading to significant dividends to 45% partner Vodafone.** 50%+ of customers in emerging markets, with potential for growth and/or margin improvement (25-30% EBITDA margins versus 38% in Europe). Vodafone has a presence in Eastern Europe, South Africa, Egypt, India, and China, among others. 6% dividend yield supported by operations excluding Verizon Wireless and other associates. We estimate the consolidated operations generate a 7%+ FCF yield on a modestly levered balance sheet (net debt to EBITDA of less than 2.0x). David Einhorn in early 2010: “…any changes that reveal the value of VOD’s Verizon Wireless stake will force the market to re-rate VOD shares. In the meantime, we collect a nice dividend.” Widely bought by superinvestors in Q2 (Centaur, Chou, Eagle, FPA, Kleinheinz, Southeastern).
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders <1% | BlackRock 7% | Axa 5% | Greenlight <1% *
Minorities are mainly attributable to India-based Essar and South Africabased Vodacom. Unconsolidated customers are mainly at Verizon Wireless.
FYE March 31 2005 2% ∆ revenue 5% ∆ service revenue 2 Revenue (£bn) 26.7 Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit 41% EBIT 3 24% D&A 21% Capex 4 19% Free cash flow (£bn) 5.6 ∆ shares out (avg) -3%
2006 10% 8% 29.4
2007 6% 5% 31.1
2008 14% 4% 35.5
2009 16% 0% 41.0
2010 8% -2% 44.5
42% 24% 20% 18% 6.3 -5%
40% 22% 16% 15% 5.3 -12%
38% 20% 17% 13% 4.7 -4%
37% 19% 17% 17% 4.1 -1%
34% 15% 18% 16% 4.7 -1%
Based on Vodafone’s consolidated financials (excluding Vodafone’s 45% stake in Verizon Wireless and contribution from other associates/investments). On organic basis. Service accounts for 90%+ of revenue (rest is equipment). 3 4 Excludes impairments. Includes purchases of intangibles. 2
SELECTED OPERATING DATA – VERIZON WIRELESS 1
1
FYE December 31 ∆ revenue ∆ period-end customers Revenue ($bn) EBIT D&A Capex 2 Selected operational metrics: Total customers (mn) EBITDA margin on service revenue
2005 17% 17% 32.3 23% 15% 20%
2006 18% 15% 38.0 25% 13% 17%
2007 15% 11% 43.9 27% 12% 15%
2008 33% 30% 58.6 28% 11% 11%
2009 6% 7% 62.1 28% 11% 11%
51.3 43%
59.1 44%
65.7 45%
85.3 46%
91.2 46%
Based on consolidated figures. 2008 and 2009 figures are pro-forma for Alltel acquisition. Net debt was $28.4 billion at 9/30/09 (1.2x 2009 EBITDA). Excludes purchases of licenses (2008/09 capex percentages are estimates).
2
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
• •
Competition and weak economies are affecting Vodafone’s mature markets, which contribute ~75% of consolidated EBITDA. Organic service revenue fell 2% in FY10 after being flat in FY09 and growing in the mid single digits previously. 69% of proportionate customers are pre-paid, implying low switching costs. Prepaid as percentage of total customers ranges from just 8% at Verizon Wireless to 94% in India and 100% in Ghana. Capex requirements may increase as a result of ongoing technological innovation and competition. $54 billion consolidated net debt as of June 30.
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE Vodafone shares offer a 6% dividend yield, which is supported by the company’s free cash flow generation excluding Verizon Wireless. As Vodafone’s 45% stake in the number one U.S. mobile operator is the company’s most valuable single asset, the market’s apparent ignorance of its value provides a compelling investment opportunity. An upward re-rating of Vodafone shares could come following a resumption of cash distributions from Verizon Wireless beyond the current level of tax pass-throughs. Regardless of how Verizon Wireless and other unconsolidated assets are monetized, Vodafone’s sum-ofthe-parts valuation implies the consolidated business trades at approximately 4x trailing EBITDA. This strikes us as too low given Vodafone’s strong European market share, growth prospects in emerging markets, and margin improvement potential.
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…additional insight into Vodafone: ESTIMATE OF INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON SUM-OF-THE-PARTS VALUATION ANALYSIS Verizon Wireless valuation: ($ millions, unless stated otherwise) Calendar 2009 actual EBITDA Implied enterprise value less net debt (as of 9/30/09) Equity value (100%) Value of Vodafone's 45% equity stake ($) Estimated £ value of Vodafone's 45% stake in Verizon Wireless per Vodafone share Vodafone valuation INCLUDING Verizon Wireless: Estimated value of Vodafone's 45% stake in Verizon Wireless Estimated equity value of rest of Vodafone (=recent stock price) Vodafone total equity value estimate per share Vodafone valuation EXCLUDING Verizon Wireless: (£ millions, except per share data) Recent stock price 1 Shares outstanding Market capitalization Plus: Net debt (as of 3/31/10) Plus: Essar $5 billion put option (in £) 2 Plus: Estimated value of remaining 35% of Vodacom 3 Less: Investments 4 Less: 44% stake in SFR 5 Adjusted enterprise value 6
£1.50 52,747 £79,121 35,609 3,200 3,733 (7,591) (3,825) £110,247
Assumed EBITDA multiple 5.0x 6.0x $24,535 $24,535 122,675 147,210 -28,446 -28,446 94,229 118,764 $42,403 $53,444 £27,138 £34,204 £0.51 £0.65
7.0x $24,535 171,745 -28,446 143,299 $64,485 £41,270 £0.78
£0.51 £1.50
£0.65 £1.50
£0.78 £1.50
£2.01
£2.15
£2.28
Financials excl. Verizon Wireless and other associates/investments: EBITDA 7 £14,735 Free cash flow 8 4,683 Implied valuation ratios: FCF yield dividend yield pro-forma net debt / EBITDA 9
5.9% 5.6% 2.1x
1
Based on ordinary shares traded on the London Stock Exchange. Corresponds to $23.21 per ADS as of August 24, 2010 (1 ADS=10 ordinary shares). Essar can put its 33% stake in Vodafone Essar to Vodafone for $5 billion. 3 Implied value based on Vodafone paying £1.6 billion to increase its stake from 50% to 65% in April 2009. 4 Per balance sheet value as reported by Vodafone at 9/30/09 (includes, among others, stakes in China Mobile and Bharti Airtel). 5 Represents estimate. 6 Enterprise value calculation ignores certain other minority interests and associates (their inclusion does not materially change our investment case). 7 Based on annualizing Vodafone’s reported EBITDA in the first half of fiscal 2010 (six months ended 9/30/09). 8 FY10 FCF estimate. Calculated as net cash from operations less capex (including purchased intangibles), excluding dividends related to associates/investments/ minorities. Vodafone's FY10 FCF guidance is £6.5-7.0 billion, but this includes contribution from associates and investments and payments to minorities. 9 Pro-forma net debt includes estimated payments for Essar and Vodacom minorities offset by investments and SFR stake. 10 Subsequently, on June 28, 2010, Verizon Wireless redeemed the outstanding $1.0 billion of aggregate floating rate notes due June 2011 at a redemption price of 100%, plus accrued and unpaid interest through the date of redemption. In addition, during the second quarter of 2010, Verizon Wireless repaid $2.8 billion of borrowings under a three-year term loan facility, reducing the outstanding borrowings under this facility to approximately $1.2 billion at June 30, 2010. During July 2010, Verizon Wireless repaid $0.7 billion of borrowings under this facility reducing the outstanding borrowings under this facility to $0.5 billion. 2
IMPLIED VODAFONE VALUATION DEPENDING ON DIFFERENT VALUES FOR ITS STAKE IN VERIZON WIRELESS (£ in millions, except per share data) Recent stock price
£1.50
Shares outstanding
52,747
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
£79,121
£79,121
£79,121
£79,121
Market capitalization Less: 45% Verizon Wireless stake
Assumed Verizon Wireless EBITDA multiple
0
(27,138)
(34,204)
(41,270)
Less: Investments
(7,591)
(7,591)
(7,591)
(7,591)
Less: 44% SFR stake
(3,825)
(3,825)
(3,825)
(3,825)
Plus: Net debt (as of 3/31/10)
35,609
35,609
35,609
35,609
Plus: Essar $5 billion put option (in £)
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
Plus: Estimated value of remaining 35% of Vodacom
3,733
3,733
3,733
3,733
£110,247
£83,109
£76,043
£68,977
Implied EV to consolidated EBITDA
Adjusted enterprise value
7.5x
5.6x
5.2x
4.7x
net debt/(cash) to EBITDA
2.1x
0.3x
-0.2x
-0.7x
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…additional insight into Vodafone: LATEST SUBSCRIBER BREAKDOWN BY GEOGRAPHY (1)
Source: Company.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 121 of 175
Xerium Technologies (XRM) – Third Point Youngsyille, NC, 919-556-7235
Consumer Cyclical: Textiles - Non-Apparel Trading Data
www.xerium.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $10.97 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $9.40 - $29.20 Market value: $164 million Enterprise value: $605 million Shares out: 15.0 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest n/a n/a n/a
Month Ago n/a n/a n/a
# of Ests n/a n/a n/a
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
n/m n/a n/a n/a 1.1x
FYE 12/31/11
n/a
n/a
n/a
EV/ LTM EBIT
n/m
Insider ownership: 1%
FYE 12/30/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
P / tangible book
n/m
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months): 0 Institutional ownership: >70%
EPS Surprise n/a
Actual n/a
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate n/a
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
-15% -20%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 561 259 108 (4) (2.46) 2 106 44 63 22 248 339 984 50 152 774 1,049 0 (65) 21%
12/31/04 583 251 85 (14) (9.09) 2 79 37 42 24 262 351 1,020 57 169 771 1,075 0 (55) 16%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 582 601 615 240 246 254 58 85 (99) 6 31 (150) 2.88 14.26 (67.14) 2 2 2 55 69 89 36 33 48 19 37 41 60 17 24 278 254 286 337 339 177 984 991 891 18 21 662 110 109 768 631 618 5 875 874 893 0 0 0 109 117 (1) 11% 17% -18%
12/31/08 638 244 83 27 11.51 2 77 39 38 35 234 170 812 40 176 577 839 0 (28) 16%
12/31/09 500 188 (32) (112) (45.80) 2 16 20 (3) 23 216 69 694 52 130 589 813 0 (120) -7%
LTME 6/30/10 531 201 (93) (174) (60.04) 4 21 18 4 33 222 75 660 10 94 464 652 0 9 -20%
FQE 6/30/09 121 46 19 2 0.65 2 0 4 (4) 20 202 182 772 55 151 563 798 0 (26) n/m
FQE 6/30/10 133 52 (19) (40) (5.38) 7 (7) 7 (14) 33 222 75 660 10 94 464 652 0 9 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0 Jul 05
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August 27, 2010 – Page 122 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA
Xerium provides paper industry products via two segments: The Clothing segment manufactures synthetic textile belts used to transport paper along papermaking machines. The Roll Covers segment manufactures and refurbishes covers used on the steel rolls of papermaking machines. The company entered Chapter 11 in March and emerged from bankruptcy effective May 25, 2010.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
•
•
One of the leading global manufacturers of clothing and roll covers for the paper industry alongside U.S. rival Albany International (AIN), Germany-based Voith, and Finland-based Metso. Recent emergence from bankruptcy has resulted in lower debt of ~$130 million at June 30 versus end of March (~22% reduction). With net debt at 4.4x 2Q10 annualized adj. EBITDA, equity holders retain big upside potential from deleveraging. 2Q10 annualized adj. EBITDA of ~$100 million, if sustained, allows for ~$30 million of annual debt paydown. This could rise materially if paper industry conditions recover and adjusted EBITDA reverts to the 2005-09 average of ~$125 million. “Believe that [paper] industry consolidation in North America and Western Europe appears to have bottomed as market-related curtailment has abated, global paper demand has increased and machine operating rates have escalated across all paper grades and geographic regions.” Recurring revenue due to consumable nature of products. Xerium’s products wear down with use and must be replaced. Products represent only ~3% of a paper producer’s production costs, but improve paper producers’ efficiency and reduce their costs. Patented products drive ~40% gross margins. Xerium’s technologies (220 patents covering ~60 different inventions) are often industry standards.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
•
Exposed to cyclical paper industry. The number of paper machines in operation and the volume of paper, pulp and board produced are the primary demand drivers for Xerium’s products. Addressable market may be in secular decline given declining paper volume in developed markets, consolidation among paper producers, and the trend toward new machine designs which use fewer rolls. Leverage remains high with $440 million of net debt at 6/30 (4.4x 2Q10 annualized adj. EBITDA). However, debt does not mature until 2015.
1
FYE December 31 2005 2006 2007 Revenue ($mn) 582 601 615 ∆ revenue 0% 3% 2% % of revenue by segment: Clothing 66% 64% 66% Roll covers 34% 36% 34% Revenue growth by segment: Clothing 1% 1% 5% Roll covers -3% 7% -3% Adjusted EBITDA margin by segment:1 Clothing 27% 25% 25% Roll covers 28% 26% 26% Corporate -2% -3% -2% Total margin 26% 23% 24% % of revenue by major geography:2 North America 40% 41% 38% Europe 36% 36% 37% Asia-Pacific 13% 13% 14% Revenue growth by top two geography: North America 5% 5% -4% Europe -3% 2% 6% Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit 41% 41% 41% R&D 2% 2% 2% EBIT3 13% 15% 15% Net income4 1% 5% -24% D&A 8% 8% 7% Capex 6% 5% 8%
2008 638 4%
2009 500 -22%
YTD 6/30/10 268 13%
65% 35%
66% 34%
66% 34%
1% 8%
-20% -25%
13% 13%
28% 25% -2% 25%
24% 22% -4% 19%
23% 22% -3% 19%
36% 37% 16%
35% 41% 14%
n/a n/a n/a
-3% 4%
-23% -13%
n/a n/a
38% 2% 9% 4% 7% 6%
37% 2% 11% -22% 8% 4%
39% 2% 10% -26% 8% 3%
Excludes restructuring expense, impairments, non-cash compensation, as well as bankruptcy reorg items in 1H10. 2 Based on product destination. Excludes items listed under footnote 1 except for non-cash compensation. 4 1H10 includes bankruptcy-related reorganization charges of $44 million. 3
•
Deleveraging depends on sales growth, as margins are already high. Customer consolidation and a shift in paper production to Asia represent challenges.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
AIN XRM
MV ($mn) 570 160
EV ($mn) 900 600
EV / Rev. 1.0x 1.1x
P/ Tang. Book 2.2x n/m
This FY P/E 13x n/a
Next FY P/E 10x n/a
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Light 1% | Other insiders <1%* | American Securities 14% | Carl Marks Strategic Investments 9% | Third Point 9% *
Excludes directors Saiontz and Wilson who are affiliated with American Securities and Carl Marks Strategic Investments, respectively.
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE Xerium’s recent emergence from bankruptcy creates a potentially rewarding opportunity for equity investors. Shares offer leveraged buyout characteristics as net debt remains high but manageable under new credit terms, and there is potential for a value transfer from debt to equity holders through deleveraging. Given already high margins, the speed of deleveraging will be driven mainly by revenue growth. This represents a key risk as product demand is exposed to the cyclical paper industry. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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…additional insight into Xerium Technologies: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
8x normalized EBITDA minus capex (EBITDA approximates adjusted EBITDA for year to June 30, 2010)
8x normalized EBITDA minus capex (EBITDA approximates 2005-09 average adjusted EBITDA)
8x normalized EBITDA minus capex (EBITDA approximates adjusted EBITDA of 2007/08)
$100
$125
$150
($ in millions) Valuation Methodology1 Normalized EBITDA2 3
Less: Normalized capex
30
30
30
Normalized EBITDA-capex
$70
$95
$120
Fair value multiple4
8.0x
8.0x
8.0x
Estimated Enterprise Value
$560
$760
$960
Less: Net debt at 6/30/105
(440)
(440)
(440)
Estimated fair value of the equity of Xerium6
$120 million
$320 million
$520 million
$8 per share
$21 per share
$35 per share
1
Our three valuation cases differ solely with respect to the "normalized" EBITDA assumption. Given the highly leveraged balance sheet, the equity value changes dramatically based on small changes in assumptions. Therefore, our estimate of the fair value range should be viewed in that context: Xerium has significant upside potential if adjusted EBITDA can be stabilized or increased from the 2Q10 level of $25 million. Downside protection, however, is low given that there are no tangible assets and the fact that cash flow could decline significantly if conditions in the paper industry worsen.
2
Based on various adjusted EBITDA figures as explained in the valuation methodology. Adjusted EBITDA excludes restructuring expense, impairments, and other special items.
3
Capex was $20 million in 2009, but that figure is likely too low to be sustained over longer periods of time. Capex guidance for 2010 is $32 million.
4
For reference purposes, competitor Albany International (AIN) has recently traded at an approximate EV to EBITDA-capex multiple of 8-9x based on trailing adjusted EBITDA and estimated normalized capex.
5
Excludes $16 million of restricted cash.
6
Based on 15.0 million shares outstanding.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
DEBT AT CONSTANT EXCHANGE RATES, Q2 2005 – Q2 2010 ($ in millions)
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
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…additional insight into Xerium: LTM ADJUSTED EBITDA, Q2 2007 – Q2 2010 ($ in thousands)
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, 2006 – H1 2010 ($ in millions)
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 125 of 175
Unchanged or Offsetting Superinvestor Holdings Aaple (AAPL) – Blue Ridge , Greenlight , Kleinheinz , Lone Pine Cupertino, CA, 408-996-1010
Technology: Computer Hardware, Member of S&P 500 Trading Data
www.apple.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $249.64 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $164.11 - $279.01 Market value: $228.1 billion Enterprise value: $203.8 billion Shares out: 913.6 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 9/30/10
Latest $3.96 4.89 14.43
Month Ago $3.95 4.82 14.29
# of Ests 40 37 47
P/E FYE 9/26/09 P/E FYE 9/30/10 P/E FYE 9/30/11 P/E FYE 9/29/12 EV/ LTM revenue
27x 17x 14x 12x 3.6x
FYE 9/30/11
17.47
17.15
48
EV/ LTM EBIT
12x
Insider ownership: 1%
FYE 9/29/12
20.23
19.85
19
P / tangible book
5.4x
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
18.9%
18.1%
15
Insider sales (last six months): 13 Institutional ownership: 72%
EPS Surprise 7/20/10
Actual $3.51
Estimate $3.12
Greenblatt Criteria LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
8% n/m
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Common equity
9/27/03 6,207 1,708 (1) 69 0.09 721 289 164 125 4,566 5,887 109 6,815 304 2,357 0 2,592 4,223
9/25/04 8,279 2,257 313 266 0.34 743 934 176 758 5,464 7,055 122 8,050 0 2,651 0 2,974 5,076
Fiscal Years Ended 9/24/05 9/30/06 9/29/07 13,931 19,315 24,578 4,042 5,598 8,152 1,643 2,453 4,407 1,328 1,989 3,495 1.55 2.27 3.93 808 844 865 2,535 2,220 5,470 260 657 986 2,275 1,563 4,484 8,261 10,110 15,386 10,300 14,509 21,956 96 177 420 11,516 17,205 25,347 0 0 0 3,487 6,443 9,280 0 0 0 4,088 7,221 10,815 7,428 9,984 14,532
9/27/08 37,491 13,197 8,327 6,119 6.78 882 9,596 1,199 8,397 22,111 30,006 559 36,171 0 11,361 0 13,874 22,297
9/26/09 42,905 17,222 11,740 8,235 9.08 893 10,159 1,213 8,946 23,464 31,555 559 47,501 0 11,506 0 15,861 31,640
LTME 6/26/10 57,089 23,277 16,622 12,237 13.28 898 16,022 1,780 14,242 24,288 36,033 1,032 64,725 0 15,612 0 21,614 43,111
FQE 6/27/09 9,734 3,983 2,632 1,828 2.01 894 2,270 272 1,998 24,222 35,170 577 48,140 0 16,661 0 22,252 25,888
FQE 6/26/10 15,700 6,136 4,234 3,253 3.51 912 4,801 626 4,175 24,288 36,033 1,032 64,725 0 15,612 0 21,614 43,111
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0 Jul 01
Jul 02
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BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
Apple provides consumer electronics globally.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
• •
One of the world’s most innovative companies. Apple has transitioned from a computer maker into a tech leader by transforming portable entertainment and mobile communications via the introductions of the iPod (2001), iPhone (2007) and iPad (2010). Does not appear to have fully penetrated its market potential based on continued strong unit sales of iPhones (61% y-y growth in F3Q10) and Mac desktop/portable computers (33% y-y growth). May double revenue in five years assuming growth can be maintained at a CAGR equivalent to the quarter-on-quarter growth of 15% implied by the revenue guidance of $18 billion for F4Q10. $46 billion of cash and no debt as of June 26. Global and loyal customer base, with 52% of revenue in F3Q10 from outside the U.S. The April launch of the iPad (three million devices sold in 80 days) may have benefited from the loyalty of existing Apple customers who trust the brand based on their high satisfaction with existing products.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
• • •
Operates in competitive consumer electronics markets. While Apple is enjoying rapid growth based on several successful new product launches, competing products from technology heavyweights such as Microsoft, Nokia and Sony may slow revenue growth and pressure margins over time. Dependent on success of future product launches in a faddish consumer electronics industry. Size limits high-ROI reinvestment opportunities. Size, and lack of capital return, temper risk-reward. Key man risk tied to CEO Steve Jobs (55), who is responsible for Apple’s successful transformation.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
MSFT GOOG HPQ DELL AAPL
MV ($mn) 209,680 147,250 93,030 23,640 228,060
EV ($mn) 178,830 117,190 98,350 16,450 203,770
EV / Rev. 2.9x 4.5x .8x .3x 3.6x
P/ Tang. Book 6.4x 4.3x >99x 91.3x 5.4x
This FY P/E 10x 17x 9x 10x 17x
Next FY P/E 9x 15x 8x 8x 14x
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders <1% | FMR 6% | Vanguard 4% | State Street 3% | BlackRock 3% | T. Rowe 3% | Invesco 2% | Janus 2%
1
FYE September 30 2005 ∆ revenue 68% ∆ iPhones n/m ∆ Macs2 38% ∆ iPods n/m ∆ net sales/Mac sold -8% ∆ net sales/iPod sold -32% Revenue ($bn) 13.9 % of revenue by product: iPhone 0% Macs 45% iPod/music-related 39% iPad 0% Other3 16% Revenue growth by major product: iPhone n/m Macs 27% iPod/music-related 243% Unit sales by product (in millions): iPhone 0.0 Macs 4.5 iPod 22.5 iPad 0.0 Net sales/Mac sold ($) 1,384 Net sales/iPod sold ($) 202 % of revenue by segment: Americas 48% Europe 22% Japan 7% Asia-Pacific 7% Retail 16% EBIT margin by segment: Americas 15% Europe 15% Japan 16% Asia-Pacific 12% Retail 17% Corporate -3% Total EBIT margin 12% Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit 29% R&D 4% Net income 10% D&A 1% Capex4 2% Return on tang. equity 22% Tangible equity/assets 64% ∆ shares out (avg) 9%
2006 39% n/m 17% 75% 0% -3% 19.3
2007 27% n/m 33% 31% 5% -17% 24.6
2008 53% n/m 38% 6% 1% 4% 37.5
2009 14% 78% 7% -1% -10% -11% 42.9
YTD 6/26/10 46% 94% 33% -6% -4% 1 44.9
0% 38% 50% 0% 12%
3% 42% 44% 0% 11%
18% 38% 33% 0% 10%
30% 32% 28% 0% 9%
36% 28% 23% 5% 7%
n/m 18% 76%
n/m 40% 13%
n/m 39% 16%
93% -3% -3%
94% 28% 10%
0.0 5.3 39.4 0.0 1,391 195
1.4 7.1 51.6 0.0 1,466 161
11.6 9.7 54.8 0.0 1,478 167
20.7 10.4 54.1 0.0 1,333 149
25.9 9.8 41.3 3.3 1,290 165
49% 21% 6% 7% 17%
48% 22% 4% 7% 18%
44% 25% 5% 7% 19%
44% 28% 5% 8% 16%
39% 29% 6% 12% 14%
20% 15% 17% 17% 18% -6% 13%
25% 25% 21% 22% 20% -6% 18%
30% 33% 32% 28% 23% -7% 22%
35% 36% 42% 34% 25% -7% 27%
32% 41% 46% 46% 23% -7% 29%
29% 4% 10% 1% 3% 23% 60% 4%
33% 3% 14% 1% 4% 29% 58% 2%
35% 3% 16% 1% 3% 34% 60% 2%
40% 3% 19% 2% 3% 31% 64% 1%
40% 3% 22% 2% 3% 29% 61% 2%
Reflects retrospective adoption of new revenue recognition principles in FY10. Includes Mac desktop and portable computers. Includes peripherals, other hardware and software, service and other sales. 4 Includes acquisition of intangible assets. 2 3
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE Apple has transitioned from a niche PC hardware and software maker into a more diversified consumer electronics company by successfully entering portable entertainment and mobile communications markets. A valuation of 10x FY10 estimated EBIT may not adequately reflect prospects for continued revenue growth driven by a strong brand-following and technology leadership in several end-markets. Main risk is tied to the competitive and faddish consumer electronics industry. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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…additional insight into Aaple: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE ($ in billions)
Valuation Methodology1
Base revenue (FY10E) 3-year revenue CAGR estimate2 Implied FY13 revenue Estimated EBIT margin3 Implied FY13 EBIT Fair value multiple4 Estimated Enterprise Value at FYE 2013 Plus: Estimated net cash at FYE 20135 Estimated Equity Value at FYE 2013 Assumed discount rate PV of Estimated Equity Value at FYE 2013 Estimated fair value of the equity of Apple6
Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
10x FY13 estimated EBIT (based on 3-yr revenue CAGR of 10% and stable EBIT margin) plus FYE13 estimated net cash; 10% discount rate
10x FY13 estimated EBIT (based on 3-yr revenue CAGR of 15% and stable EBIT margin) plus FYE13 estimated net cash; 10% discount rate
10x FY13 estimated EBIT (based on 3-yr revenue CAGR of 20% and stable EBIT margin) plus FYE13 estimated net cash; 10% discount rate
$63 10% $84 29% $24 10.0x $241 99 340 10% $255 $255 billion $259 per share
$63 15% $96 29% $28 10.0x $276 106 382 10% $287 $287 billion $291 per share
$63 20% $109 29% $31 10.0x $313 114 427 10% $321 $321 billion $326 per share
1
Our three cases differ solely in the revenue CAGR assumption for the three-year period from FY10 through FY13 (FY ended September). While the choice of a three year period is arbitrary, the main objective of our analysis is to demonstrate the company's free cash flow generation ability.
2
The company's F4Q10 revenue guidance implies quarter-over-quarter revenue growth of 15%. The implied y-y revenue growth for FY10 is 47%.
3
Our EBIT margin assumption for all three cases is kept constant at the actual EBIT margin of 29% recorded in the first nine months of FY10. We assume no margin expansion benefits from a shift in the revenue mix to higher-margin products.
4
The company's recent EV-to-EBIT multiple is ~10x based on FY10E EBIT.
5
Includes estimated cumulative free cash flow in addition to the company's net cash balance of $46 billion as of June 26, 2010.
6
Based on estimated 984 million shares outstanding at FYE 2013 (assumes 2% CAGR in shares outstanding).
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
QUARTERLY REVENUE BREAKDOWN, 2007
($ in millions, units in thousands)
Source: Company.
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…additional insight into Aaple: QUARTERLY REVENUE BREAKDOWN, 2008
($ in millions, units in thousands)
Source: Company.
QUARTERLY REVENUE BREAKDOWN, 2009
($ in millions, units in thousands)
Source: Company.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 129 of 175
Google (GOOG) – Brave Warrior , Glenview , Maverick , Viking Mountain View, CA, 650-253-0000
Technology: Computer Services, Member of S&P 500 Trading Data
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $462 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $433.63 - $629.51 Market value: $147.2 billion Enterprise value: $117.2 billion Shares out: 318.7 million Ownership Data
www.google.com Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $6.67 7.50 27.28
Month Ago $6.68 7.52 27.30
# of Ests 36 34 37
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
23x 17x 15x 13x 4.5x
FYE 12/31/11
31.26
31.28
39
EV/ LTM EBIT
12x
Insider ownership: 26%
FYE 12/30/12
35.78
35.89
11
P / tangible book
4.3x
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
16.1%
16.2%
12
Insider sales (last six months): 67 Institutional ownership: 81%
EPS Surprise 7/15/10
Actual $6.45
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate $6.52
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
8% >100%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 1,466 840 342 106 0.41 138 395 177 219 335 560 106 872 5 236 2 269 58 544 >100%
12/31/04 3,189 1,720 640 399 1.46 193 977 356 621 2,132 2,694 194 3,313 2 340 0 384 0 2,929 >100%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 6,139 10,605 16,594 3,562 6,380 9,945 2,017 3,550 5,084 1,465 3,077 4,204 5.02 9.94 13.29 276 301 311 2,459 3,581 5,775 853 1,903 2,403 1,606 1,678 3,373 8,034 11,244 14,219 9,001 13,040 17,289 278 1,892 2,746 10,272 18,473 25,336 0 0 0 745 1,305 2,036 0 0 0 853 1,434 2,646 0 0 0 9,419 17,040 22,690 >100% >100% >100%
12/31/08 21,796 13,174 5,537 4,227 13.31 314 7,853 2,359 5,494 15,846 20,178 5,837 31,768 0 2,302 0 3,529 0 28,239 90%
12/31/09 23,651 14,807 8,312 6,520 20.41 316 9,316 810 8,506 24,485 29,167 5,678 40,497 0 2,748 0 4,493 0 36,004 >100%
LTME 6/30/10 26,214 16,660 9,408 7,408 23.11 317 10,127 1,123 9,004 30,059 35,161 6,692 48,045 0 5,747 0 7,432 0 40,613 >100%
FQE 6/30/09 5,523 3,415 1,874 1,485 4.66 316 1,609 139 1,470 19,344 23,835 5,693 35,159 0 2,001 0 3,564 0 31,595 n/m
FQE 6/30/10 6,820 4,353 2,365 1,840 5.71 318 2,085 476 1,609 30,059 35,161 6,692 48,045 0 5,747 0 7,432 0 40,613 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Jul 05
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August 27, 2010 – Page 130 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA
Google provides Internet-based services to users, advertisers, publishers and other content providers.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
• •
•
•
#1 most trafficked Internet destination/search engine and well-known global Internet brand.* Google also owns other valuable brands and applications including YouTube (#3 most visited website) and Blogger ((#8 most visited website). Advertising-driven business model with 97% of revenue based on advertising in 2009. Google’s AdWords program enables advertisers to place mainly search-based ads on the company’s websites as well as those of its third-party network members. High-digit trailing EBIT yield on recent enterprise value may not adequately reflect the company’s dominant position in online search advertising, global brand recognition and continued strong EBIT growth (29% y-y growth in 1H10). $30 billion of cash and no debt as of June 30. Revenue grew 23% in 1H10 driven by an increase in the number of paid clicks, and to a lesser extent, an increase in the average cost-per-click paid by advertisers. The revenue growth represents a pickup from the 9% y-y growth in 2009 and reflects continued strong growth in Internet advertising. Benefiting from secular shift of advertising from traditional media to the Internet. Google remains best-positioned to take advantage of this shift relative to rivals including Yahoo! and Microsoft. Incentivized and capable management with insiders owning 20%+ of shares. Founders Brin (36) and Page (37) are in charge of product innovation and technology. CEO Schmidt (54) is a technology industry veteran having held executive positions at Novell, Sun Microsystems, Apple and Siebel.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
•
Slowdown in the revenue growth rate since 2006 reflects size limitations to continued strong organic growth. While 1H10 revenue growth picked up from the 2009 rate, this may be partly due to a cyclical recovery in global advertising markets. Impact of advertising cyclicality likely to increase with size. The proportional benefits of the ad shift from traditional media to the Internet have reduced due a near tripling of revenue since 2006. Large cash balance a drag on equity returns? Instead of returning capital, Google has opted for investments into new businesses and M&A.
1
FYE December 31 Revenue ($bn) ∆ revenue % of revenue by type: Advertising-Google websites Advertising-Google Network sites Licensing and other Revenue growth by major type: Advertising-Google websites Advertising-Google Network sites % of revenue by geography:1 U.S. U.K. Rest of World Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit R&D EBIT Net income D&A Capex Traffic acq. costs/ad revenue2 ∆ shares out (avg)
2006 10.6 73%
2007 16.6 56%
2008 21.8 31%
2009 23.7 9%
1H10 13.6 23%
60% 39% 1%
64% 35% 1%
66% 31% 3%
66% 30% 3%
66% 30% 4%
88% 55%
68% 39%
36% 16%
9% 7%
22% 23%
57% 15% 28%
52% 15% 32%
49% 14% 37%
47% 13% 40%
48% 12% 40%
60% 12% 33% 29% 5% 18% 32% 7%
60% 13% 31% 25% 6% 14% 30% 3%
60% 13% 30% 19% 7% 11% 28% 1%
63% 12% 35% 28% 6% 3% 27% 1%
64% 13% 36% 28% 5% 5% 26% 1%
Based on billing addresses of customers. Cost of revenue consists primarily of traffic acquisition costs. These costs consist of amounts paid to Google Network members and to certain other distribution partners who distribute toolbar and other products or otherwise direct search queries to Google websites. These amounts are primarily based on revenue share contracts with Network members and distribution partners.
2
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
AAPL MSFT HPQ DELL AOL GOOG
MV ($mn) 228,060 209,680 93,030 23,640 2,410 147,250
EV ($mn) 203,770 178,830 98,350 16,450 2,090 117,190
EV / Rev. 3.6x 2.9x .8x .3x .7x 4.5x
P/ Tang. Book 5.4x 6.4x >99x 91.3x 2.0x 4.3x
This FY P/E 17x 10x 9x 10x 9x 17x
Next FY P/E 14x 9x 8x 8x 12x 15x
MAJOR HOLDERS Shares out: 247 million class A shares (GOOG; one vote per share) and 72 million class B shares (10 votes per share). Cofounders Brin and Page each own ~40% of class B shares. Economics: Founders 18%* | CEO 3% | Other insiders 1%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends? *
Source: Alexa.com.
THE BOTTOM LINE Google is the most highly trafficked website globally benefiting from its leadership in Internet search. The company has a large net cash position as well as incentivized and capable management that owns more than 20%. Shares appear modestly undervalued based on continued strong revenue growth prospects due to the shift of advertising dollars from traditional media to the Internet. Size considerations and a lack of capital return to shareholders, however, temper the risk-reward. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 131 of 175
…additional insight into Google: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE ($ in billions)
Valuation Methodology1
Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
12x 2013 estimated EBIT (based on 3-yr revenue CAGR of 10% and stable EBIT margin) plus 12/2013 estimated net cash; 10% discount rate
12x 2013 estimated EBIT (based on 3-yr revenue CAGR of 15% and stable EBIT margin) plus 12/2013 estimated net cash; 10% discount rate
12x 2013 estimated EBIT (based on 3-yr revenue CAGR of 20% and stable EBIT margin) plus 12/2013 estimated net cash; 10% discount rate
Base revenue (1H10 annualized)
$27
$27
$27
3-year revenue CAGR estimate2
10%
15%
20%
Implied revenue in 2013
$36
$41
$47
Estimated EBIT margin3
36%
36%
36%
Implied EBIT in 2013
$13
$15
$17
12.0x
12.0x
12.0x
$155
$177
$201
58
62
66
4
Fair value multiple
Estimated Enterprise Value at yearend 2013 5
Plus: Estimated net cash at yearend 2013 Estimated Equity Value at yearend 2013
213
239
268
Assumed discount rate
10%
10%
10%
PV of Estimated Equity Value at yearend 2013 Estimated fair value of the equity of Google6
$160
$180
$201
$160 billion
$180 billion
$201 billion
$488 per share
$547 per share
$612 per share
1
Our three cases differ solely in the revenue CAGR assumption for the three-year period from 2010 through 2013. While the choice of a three year period is arbitrary, the main objective of our analysis is to demonstrate the company's free cash flow generation ability.
2
Revenue increased 23% y-y in 1H10.
3
Our EBIT margin assumption for all three cases is kept constant at the actual EBIT margin of 36% recorded in 1H10.
4
The company's recent EV-to-EBIT multiple is ~12x based on 1H10 annualized EBIT.
5
Includes estimated cumulative free cash flow through 2013 in addition to the company's net cash balance of $30 billion as of June 30, 2010.
6
Based on estimated 328 million shares outstanding at yearend 2013 (assumes 1% CAGR in shares outstanding).
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
RECONCILIATION OF NON-GAAP TO GAAP PROFITABILITY, Q2 2009, Q1 2010 & Q2 2010
1
Percentages based on revenues of $5,523 million in Q2'09, $6,775 million in Q1'10 and $6,820 million in Q2'10.
Source: Company presentation dated July 2010.
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…additional insight into Google: SLIDES FROM COMPANY PRESENTATION, JULY 2010
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August 27, 2010 – Page 133 of 175
Liberty Interactive (LINTA) – Eagle , Southeastern , Third Point , Weitz Englewood, CO, 720-875-5400
Services: Broadcasting & Cable TV Trading Data
www.libertymedia.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $10.50 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $9.04 - $16.80 Market value: $6.3 billion Enterprise value: $11.3 billion Shares out: 598.1 million Ownership Data
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $0.06 0.23 0.90
Month Ago $0.03 0.24 0.92
# of Ests 7 6 6
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
24x 12x 15x 11x 1.3x
FYE 12/31/11
0.70
0.70
7
EV/ LTM EBIT
11x
Insider ownership: 13%
FYE 12/30/12
0.94
0.96
5
P / tangible book
n/m
Insider buys (last six months): 1
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months): 2 Institutional ownership: 82%
EPS Surprise 8/9/10
Actual $0.10
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate $0.11
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
10% 64%
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 1,973 715 291 62 0.09 722 117 60 57
12/31/04 5,687 2,093 748 187 0.26 722 446 121 325 855 2,423 11,844 18,977 0 1,039 6,244 11,195 0 7,782 59%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 6,501 7,326 7,802 2,389 2,761 2,877 916 1,130 1,113 298 511 441 0.41 0.83 0.61 722 722 722 754 553 604 153 259 289 601 294 315 945 946 557 2,729 2,984 2,921 11,525 11,961 11,919 18,351 19,820 19,326 1,377 11 13 2,667 1,457 1,505 3,950 6,372 7,164 10,120 11,259 11,796 0 0 0 8,231 8,561 7,530 73% 82% 65%
12/31/08 8,079 2,855 1,146 (781) (1.31) 596 508 166 342 832 3,282 11,465 17,487 175 1,710 6,956 11,184 0 6,303 58%
12/31/09 8,305 2,973 1,030 258 0.43 600 1,087 208 879 884 3,379 11,223 17,343 663 2,743 5,410 10,549 0 6,794 60%
LTME 6/30/10 8,616 3,097 1,072 555 0.92 599 768 247 521 1,100 3,138 11,043 16,320 703 2,185 5,392 10,604 0 5,716 64%
FQE 6/30/09 1,936 728 266 128 0.21 594 412 54 358 946 2,998 11,414 16,967 1,184 2,443 5,784 10,551 0 6,416 n/m
FQE 6/30/10 2,053 769 274 58 0.10 595 37 64 (27) 1,100 3,138 11,043 16,320 703 2,185 5,392 10,604 0 5,716 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
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August 27, 2010 – Page 134 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1 2007 7.8 6%
2008 8.1 4%
2009 8.3 3%
YTD 6/30/10 4.1 8%
95% 5%
90% 10%
89% 11%
86% 14%
5% 61%
-1% 92%
1% 20%
8% 13%
1,652 40 -8 1,684
1,502 71 -18 1,555
1,565 103 -14 1,654
769 46 -6 809
22% 10% 22%
21% 9% 19%
21% 11% 20%
22% 8% 20%
37% 14% 6% 7% 4%
35% 11% -10% 7% 2%
36% 13% 3% 7% 3%
37% 12% 9% 7% 3%
*
Liberty Media Interactive (LMI) is a tracking stock for the following assets of Liberty Media Corporation (LMC): QVC, a major TV and online consumer products retailer; various e-commerce businesses including Backcountry.com, Provide Commerce, Bodybuilding.com, BuySeasons, and CommerceHub. LMI consolidates all of these businesses. Equity investments in Expedia (24% equity stake), IAC/InterActiveCorp (11%), HSN (33%), Interval Leisure (30%), Live Nation (15%), and Tree.com (26%).
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
Plans to eliminate LMI’s tracking stock status by
“late 2010 or early 2011”. This could be a key •
•
•
•
catalyst, potentially closing the tracking stock discount associated with the shares. Recent valuation implies <5x trailing EBITDA of QVC and e-commerce businesses, assuming the enterprise value is adjusted by the recent market value of attributed equity investments. QVC grew revenue 8% y-y in 1H10 and had adj. EBITDA margins at its U.S. business of 25%, the second-highest in history. QVC generated $1.5+ billion of EBITDA in each of the last three years. Attributed equity investments are worth $2.8 billion (~$4.50 per share) at recent market prices. This may understate intrinsic value as most of the investments come with significant influence or control (e.g. 58% and 55% voting interests in Expedia and IAC/InterActiveCorp, respectively). “Expect no material changes to the assets or liabilities currently attributed” to LMI.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
• • •
Elimination of tracking stock status is no done deal as the proposal is subject to various conditions, including satisfactory tax-related rulings. A debt holder has also filed a lawsuit against the proposal. Risks related to the tracking stock status include adverse asset/liability attributions, management conflicts of interest, and limited legal recourse. Governance an issue even if tracking stock status is eliminated. Malone would retain voting control. $5.0 billion of “attributed” net debt as of June 30.
*
A type of share that reflects the economics of a particular business rather than the company as a whole. LMC has three tracking stocks—Liberty Interactive, Liberty Starz and Liberty Capital. While each has separate assets/liabilities attributed to them, none is a separate legal entity and therefore cannot own assets or issue securities. Holders of tracking stocks have no direct claim to the group’s stock or assets and are not represented by separate boards of directors. Instead, they are stockholders of the parent corporation, with a single board and subject to all of the risks of the parent.
1
FYE December 31 Revenue ($bn) ∆ revenue % of revenue by segment: QVC E-commerce businesses Revenue growth by segment: QVC E-commerce businesses Adjusted EBITDA by segment ($mn):2 QVC E-commerce businesses Corporate and other Total adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA margin by segment: QVC E-commerce businesses Total adjusted EBITDA margin Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit EBIT Net income3 D&A Capex
Financials are based on those businesses of Liberty Media Interactive that are attributed to it by Liberty Media Corporation. Referred to as adjusted OIBDA by management. It excludes stock-based compensation, separately reported litigation settlements and restructuring and impairment charges. 3 Attributable to Liberty Media Corporation shareholders. 2
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
AMZN AOL UNTD FLWS VVTV LINTA
MV ($mn) 57,210 2,410 430 120 70 6,280
EV ($mn) 52,230 2,090 610 160 60 11,280
EV / Rev. 1.8x .7x .6x .2x .1x 1.3x
P/ Tang. Book 12.4x 2.0x n/m 2.2x 1.4x n/m
This FY P/E 49x 9x 5x 11x n/a 12x
Next FY P/E 36x 12x 5x 5x n/a 15x
MAJOR HOLDERS Shares out: 569 million series A shares (LINTA; one vote per share) and 29 million series B shares (LINTB; 10 votes per share). John Malone owns 90+% of series B shares. Economic stake: John Malone 6% | Other insiders 2% | Southeastern 14% | Dodge & Cox 10% | ClearBridge 5%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE As a tracking stock of Liberty Media Corporation, shares of Liberty Interactive have always come with a material discount attached to them. This may finally change due to the parent company’s proposal to strip Liberty Interactive of its tracking stock status and make it an “asset-backed” stock by “late 2010 or early 2011.” This provides a compelling catalyst, as intrinsic value may be twice recent market value. Legal and tax-related issues related to the proposal appear manageable. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 135 of 175
LIBERTY MEDIA INTERACTIVE – OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE ($ in millions, except as noted)
Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
6x LTM adjusted 10x LTM adjusted 8x LTM adjusted EBITDA of EBITDA of EBITDA of consolidated consolidated consolidated subsidiaries, less net subsidiaries, less net subsidiaries, less net debt, plus value of debt, plus value of debt, plus value of equity investments at equity investments at equity investments at recent market prices recent market prices recent market prices
Valuation Methodology
Value of consolidated subsidiaries: QVC: LTM adjusted EBITDA (year to June 30, 2010) Fair value multiple Estimated Enterprise Value of QVC
$1,646 6.0x $9,876
$1,646 8.0x $13,168
$1,646 10.0x $16,460
$78 6.0x $468
$78 8.0x $624
$78 10.0x $780
$10,344 (4,995) $5.3 billion $9 per share
$13,792 (4,995) $8.8 billion $15 per share
$17,240 (4,995) $12.2 billion $20 per share
Value of equity and cost method investments (at recent market prices): Expedia (Nasdaq:EXPE) $1,543 IAC/InterActiveCorp (Nasdaq:IACI) 276 HSN (Nasdaq:HSNI) 505 Interval Leisure Group (Nasdaq:IILG) 206 Live Nation Entertainment (NYSE:LYV) 210 Tree.com (Nasdaq:TREE) 21 $2.8 billion Estim ated equity value of investm ents $5 per share
$1,543 276 505 206 210 21 $2.8 billion $5 per share
$1,543 276 505 206 210 21 $2.8 billion $5 per share
$8.1 billion $14 per share
$11.6 billion $19 per share
$15.0 billion $25 per share
E-commerce Businesses: LTM adjusted EBITDA (year to June 30, 2010) Fair value multiple Estimated Enterprise Value of E-commerce Businesses Total Enterprise Value of Consolidated Subsidiaries Less: Net debt as of 6/30/2010 Estim ated equity value of consolidated businesses
Estim ated fair value of the equity of Liberty Interactive
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
LIBERTY MEDIA INTERACTIVE – ADJUSTED OIBDA AND OPERATING INCOME, 2Q09 – 2Q10
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
PROFITABILITY BREAKDOWN – QVC & ECOMMERCE BUSINESSES, 2Q09 – 2Q10
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
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…additional insight into Liberty Media Interactive: LIBERTY INTERACTIVE – Q2 2010 PERFORMANCE AND RECENT BALANCE SHEET HIGHLIGHTS
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
QVC – Q2 2010 SELECTED SEGMENT GROWTH DATA
Source: Company presentation dated August 2010.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 137 of 175
SuperMedia (SPMD) – Appaloosa , Fairfax , Paulson DFW Airport, TX, 972-453-7000
Services: Advertising Trading Data
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $11.94 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $11.84 - $48.88 Market value: $185 million Enterprise value: $2.5 billion Shares out: 15.5 million Ownership Data
www.supermedia.com Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest n/a n/a n/a
Month Ago n/a n/a n/a
# of Ests n/a n/a n/a
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
n/m n/a n/a n/a 1.5x
FYE 12/31/11
n/a
n/a
n/a
EV/ LTM EBIT
n/m
Insider ownership: 2%
FYE 12/30/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
P / tangible book
n/m
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months): 0 Institutional ownership: 77%
EPS Surprise n/a
Actual n/a
Estimate n/a
Greenblatt Criteria LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
349% >100%
LTME 6/30/10 1,588 1,114 8,572 8,132 41.79 114 461 52 409 300 844 2,253 3,261 2 322 2,571 3,283 0 (22) >100%
FQE 6/30/10 247 144 (62) (83) (5.53) 15 194 10 184 300 844 2,253 3,261 2 322 2,571 3,283 0 (22) n/m
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 3,675 3,082 1,477 (568) 6.13 146 1,243 72 1,171
12/31/04 3,513 2,931 1,601 972 6.66 146 1,170 85 1,085 0 919 200 1,402 0 627 0 1,085 0 317 >100%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 3,374 3,221 3,189 2,752 2,580 2,561 1,641 1,347 1,343 1,025 787 429 7.02 5.39 2.94 146 146 146 1,239 993 369 78 64 46 1,161 929 323 0 172 48 942 804 793 193 176 376 1,412 1,415 1,667 0 48 48 584 697 588 0 9,067 9,020 1,087 10,169 10,267 0 0 0 325 (8,754) (8,600) >100% >100% >100%
12/31/08 2,973 2,365 926 183 1.25 146 363 56 307 510 1,300 139 1,815 9,267 9,933 0 10,306 0 (8,491) >100%
12/31/09 2,512 1,931 8,776 8,257 56.17 147 436 52 384 212 1,331 2,321 3,834 0 469 2,750 3,634 0 200 >100%
FQE 6/30/09 651 503 207 142 0.97 147 77 10 67 559 1,369 136 1,857 0 306 0 10,354 0 (8,497) n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0 Jul 10 © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 138 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
SuperMedia provides advertising services to small-and medium-sized businesses. The company, formerly Idearc, emerged from Chapter 11 at yearend 2009. The company, which comprises Verizon’s former U.S. print and Internet yellow pages directory operations, was spun off in 2006.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
•
•
One of the largest U.S. publishers of directories, based on revenue. While revenue by ad platform is no longer disclosed, 80-90% of it likely comes from SuperYellowPages print directories and direct mail, while the rest is derived online at superpages.com. Shares may be off investors’ radar screens due to recent emergence from bankruptcy, fresh start accounting quirks (GAAP income statement understates true economics of the business as it ignores yearend 2009 deferred revenue), and “outof-favor status” of traditional advertising providers. Cut debt by ~$6 billion in bankruptcy. With recent net debt at 3.5x 2Q10 annualized EBITDA, leverage is now more manageable. Even so, equity holders retain big upside potential on deleveraging. Generated $81 million of FCF in 2Q10. The company is obligated to contribute 67.5% of FCF to debt reduction per the loan agreements. This leads to automatic deleveraging and capital discipline. Based on 2Q10 annualized FCF (assuming stable operations and no benefit from lower interest), net debt could be cut in half in nearly three years. 2Q10 EBITDA increased 1% sequentially despite a 4% decline in revenue versus 1Q10. 2Q10 net advertising sales, a lead indicator of revenue, fell 6% sequentially to $467 million ($1.9 billion annualized). 2Q10 EBITDA margin was 32%. Competitive edge in print directories due to exclusive publisher deal with Verizon through 2036.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
•
No downside protection if business fundamentals keep deteriorating. Ongoing year-on-year ad sales declines in the high teens may shrink enterprise value below net debt. As there are no significant other assets, equity holders may be wiped out. Ad sales pressure partly reflects secular decline in print advertising versus other ad platforms such as the Internet. This may not be reversed even if businesses increase ad spending from recent levels. $2.3 billion of net debt at June 30. Debt matures in 2015. Cash net interest was $143 million in 1H10.
1
FYE December 31 ∆ net advertising sales2 Revenue ($bn) ∆ revenue % of revenue by type:3 Print products Internet Revenue growth by type: Print products Internet Selected items as % of revenue: Gross profit EBIT4 Net income5 D&A Capex6 Net advertising sales ($bn)
2006 -2% 3.2 -5%
2007 -4% 3.2 -1%
2008 -10% 3.0 -7%
2009 -19% 2.5 -16%
1H10 -19% 1.0 -21%
92% 7%
91% 9%
90% 10%
n/a n/a
n/a n/a
-5% 17%
-3% 24%
-8% 5%
n/a n/a
n/a n/a
80% 42% 24% 3% 2% 3.2
80% 42% 13% 3% 1% 3.1
80% 39% 6% 3% 2% 2.8
77% 29% 9% 3% 2% 2.2
74% 22% 6% 9% 2% 1.0
“Fresh start” accounting reduced yearend 2009 deferred revenue and deferred directory costs to zero. As a result, $846 million of revenue and $215 million of directory costs will not be recognized in 2010. To enable y-y comparisons, our YTD figures above are therefore based on non-GAAP. 2 For print products, this represents the revenue value (less allowances) of directories that will be amortized over their life (typically one year). For Internet sales, this is the revenue for fixed-fee and performance-based ad products less allowances. Revenue from fixed-fee advertisers is recognized monthly. Revenue from performance-based advertising is recognized when transactions have occurred. Net advertising sales differ from operating revenue, which is recognized under the deferral and amortization method. 3 SuperMedia ceased disclosing this information effective with the 2009 10-K. 4 2008 EBIT excludes impairments of $225 million. 5 2009 net income excludes a bankruptcy-related reorganization gain of $8.0 billion (reported below EBIT), mainly due to a partial debt write-off. 6 Includes capitalized software.
•
Competitors include directories such as Yell’s Yellowbook or AT&T’s Yellowpages.com. SuperMedia’s online growth may suffer if Internet companies such as Google enter local business advertising markets more aggressively.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
DEXO SPMD
MV ($mn) 560 190
EV ($mn) 3,410 2,460
EV / Rev. 2.4x 1.5x
P/ Tang. Book n/m n/m
This FY P/E n/a n/a
Next FY P/E n/a n/a
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Klein 1% | Other insiders <1% | Paulson 17% | Moore 5% | Scottwood 4% | Anchorage 4% | Appaloosa 3%
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE Directories publisher SuperMedia may be off the radar screen of most investors for a number of reasons including: 1) emergence from bankruptcy at yearend 2009; 2) fresh start accounting quirks which render GAAP revenue and earnings misleading; and 3) a general “out-of-favor status” of traditional advertising providers. While high leverage and uncertain business fundamentals make equity valuation speculative, equity holders may have big upside if recent FCF generation can be sustained. This would allow deleveraging to continue, which would transfer significant value from debt to equity holders. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 139 of 175
…additional insight into SuperMedia: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
5x normalized EBITDA minus capex (assumes revenue at 90% of 2Q10 annualized net ad sales, 2Q10 actual EBITDA margin and capex at 2% of revenue)
5x normalized EBITDA minus capex (assumes revenue at 100% of 2Q10 annualized net ad sales, 2Q10 actual EBITDA margin and capex at 2% of revenue)
5x normalized EBITDA minus capex (assumes revenue at 110% of 2Q10 annualized net ad sales, 2Q10 actual EBITDA margin and capex at 2% of revenue)
($ in millions)
1
Valuation Methodology
Normalized revenue
$1,681
$1,868
$2,055
Estimated EBITDA margin2
32%
32%
32%
Normalized EBITDA
542
602
662
Less: Capex3
34
37
41
$508
$565
$621
4
Normalized EBITDA-capex 5
Fair value multiple
5.0x
5.0x
5.0x
Estimated Enterprise Value
$2,541
$2,823
$3,105
Less: Net debt at 6/30/10
(2,273)
(2,273)
(2,273)
Estimated fair value of the equity of SuperMedia6
$268 million
$550 million
$832 million
$17 per share
$35 per share
$54 per share
1
Our three valuation cases differ solely with respect to the "normalized" revenue assumption, which we think is the key value driver. Given the highly leveraged balance sheet, equity value changes dramatically based on small changes in assumptions. Therefore, our estimate of the fair value range should be viewed in that context: SuperMedia has significant upside potential if revenue can be stabilized or increased from current levels. Downside protection, however, is low given that there are no tangible assets and the fact that revenue and cash flow could decline dramatically if recent ad sales declines persist.
2
EBITDA margin is assumed stable at the 2Q10 actual level for all three valuation cases. While we assume in the conservative case that the costs could be cut on 10% lower revenue versus the base case, the aggressive case assumes that 10% higher revenue relative to the base case does not lead to margin expansion.
3
Assumes capex is 2.0% of revenue in each valuation case. This is in-line with the 2005-09 average. 1H10 capex was also 2.0% of revenue.
4
EBITDA minus capex was $154 million in 2Q10. This implies annual EBITDA minus capex of $616 million, approximating the figure used in the aggressive case.
5
For reference purposes, competitor Dex One Corporation (DEXO) has recently traded at an EV to EBITDA minus capex multiple of 5x based on 2010E EBITDA.
6
Based on 15.5 million shares outstanding.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
YTD FREE CASH FLOW = $265 MILLION 1
1
The company defines free cash flow as cash from operations minus capex, i.e., $286 million minus $21 million = $265 million FCF YTD.
Source: Company presentation dated July 2010.
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…additional insight into SuperMedia: SLIDES FROM COMPANY PRESENTATION, JULY 2010
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August 27, 2010 – Page 141 of 175
TravelCenters of America (TA) – Bares , Leucadia Westlake, OH, 440-808-9100
Services: Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) Trading Data Price: $3.61 (as of 8/20/10) 52-week range: $2.05 - $8.75 Market value: $62 million Enterprise value: $8 million Shares out: 17.3 million Ownership Data
Consensus EPS Estimates
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $0.43 -1.47 -3.35
Month Ago -$0.32 -1.90 -5.42
# of Ests 1 1 1
FYE 12/31/11
-2.30
n/a
1
Insider ownership: 7%
FYE 12/30/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider buys (last six months): 0
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months): 1 Institutional ownership: n/a
EPS Surprise 8/9/10
Actual $0.07
www.tatravelcenters.com Valuation
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
n/m n/m n/m n/a 0.0x
EV/ LTM EBIT
n/m
P / tangible book
0.3x
Greenblatt Criteria
Estimate -$0.82
LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-tax ROC
-1280% -22%
LTME 3/31/10 5,117 866 (97) (113) (6.67) 17 30 37 (8) 155 418 28 889 0 250 101 615 0 274 -22%
FQE 3/31/10 1,384 205 (36) (41) (2.39) 17 6 6 (0) 155 418 28 889 0 250 101 615 0 274 n/m
Operating Performance and Financial Position ($ millions, except per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating income Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg) Cash from operations Capex Free cash flow Cash & investments Total current assets Intangible assets Total assets Short-term debt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity EBIT/capital employed
12/31/03 2,176 501 60 9 1.26 7 77 44 33
12/31/04 2,678 531 69 15 2.04 7 97 123 (26) 46 199 49 898 0 151 683 858 0 40 11%
Fiscal Years Ended 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 4,075 4,784 6,166 625 660 812 47 96 (165) (2) 31 (123) (0.30) 4.09 (10.57) 7 7 12 81 108 (75) 85 93 145 (4) 15 (220) 48 55 420 230 267 746 52 52 40 940 996 1,263 7 7 263 194 200 568 676 669 106 892 906 824 0 0 0 47 89 439 8% 15% -30%
12/31/08 7,658 980 (35) (40) (2.65) 15 80 83 (4) 146 409 35 890 0 201 104 488 0 402 -8%
12/31/09 4,700 878 (77) (90) (5.38) 17 53 38 15 156 411 29 885 0 220 101 571 0 315 -16%
FQE 3/31/09 967 217 (16) (18) (1.08) 17 29 6 22 168 424 34 900 0 211 103 515 0 384 n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Performance and Trading Volume Dynamics
$50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Jul 07 © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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Jul 09
Jul 10
August 27, 2010 – Page 142 of 175
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
TravelCenters operates and franchises truck stops primarily along the U.S. interstate highway system. The TA- and Petro-branded truck stops offer diesel and gasoline fuel, restaurants, truck repair facilities, stores and other services. The company was spun off from Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT) in a 2007 IPO. It acquired competitor Petro in 2007.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS •
•
•
•
•
•
#2 truck stop chain in the U.S. with 188 companyoperated and 41 franchised sites. Privately-held Pilot Flying J is the #1 operator with over 500 locations in the 6,000+ U.S. truck stop industry. Supportive landlord. HPT, which owns 81% of locations, agreed to allow rent deferral of $5 million per month from July 2008 to December 2010. While terms included issue of 1.54 million shares to HPT, HPT appears interested in TravelCenters’ survival. EBITDAR exceeded cash rent by ~$29 million in 2Q10, with the spread positive even after adjusting for $15 million of unpaid rent. EBITDAR improved from $57 million in 2Q09 to $76 million in 2Q10 driven mainly by a pick-up in trucking activity. $170 million of cash is offset by $120 million of deferred rent (due 7/2011) and $100 million of capitalized leases as of June 30. Additional liquidity includes a $100 million credit facility (due in 2012). Capital-light business model. The company owns only nine locations and makes money on retailing and franchising. Fuel inventories are less than three days of sales and are sold at daily indexed prices. Geared to U.S. economic recovery. TravelCenters had $910 million of mostly fixed site-level, SG&A and rental costs versus gross profit of $878 million in 2009. Rent expense was 27% of gross profit.
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS •
•
•
1
FYE December 31 2006 17% ∆ revenue 4% ∆ fuel gallons sold 1% ∆ TA-operated centers 10% ∆ franchisee-operated centers 2% ∆ total centers Revenue ($bn) 4.8 % of revenue by type: Fuel 82% Nonfuel 18% Rent and royalties 0.2% Revenue growth by type: Fuel 21% Nonfuel 4% Rent and royalties 1% Gross margin by type: Fuel 4% Nonfuel 58% Rent and royalties 100% Total gross margin 14% Selected items as % of revenue: EBIT 2% Net income 1% D&A 1% Capex 2% Travel centers operated by: TA 140 Franchisees 23 Total travel centers 163 % of travel centers by brand affiliation: TA 100% Petro 0% Travel center growth by brand affiliation: TA 2% Petro n/m Total fuel sold (mn gallons)2 1,850 Tangible equity to assets 2% ∆ shares out (avg) 0%
2007 29% 18% 35% 104% 45% 6.2
2008 24% -5% -1% -4% -1% 7.7
2009 -39% -7% 0% 0% 0% 4.7
YTD 6/30/10 38% 8% 0% -9% -2% 2.9
82% 18% 0.2%
84% 16% 0.2%
76% 23% 0.3%
80% 19% 0.2%
30% 26% 29%
27% 9% 12%
-44% -8% -4%
50% 3% -4%
3% 58% 100% 13%
4% 58% 100% 13%
6% 58% 100% 19%
5% 58% 100% 16%
-2% -2% 1% 2%
0% -1% 1% 1%
-2% -2% 1% 1%
-1% -1% 1% 1%
189 47 236
188 45 233
188 45 233
188 41 229
71% 29%
71% 29%
71% 29%
72% 28%
2% n/m 2,180 20% 68%
-1% -3% 2,078 37% 30%
0% 0% 1,933 38% 10%
0% -6% 969 33% 4%
2007 growth reflects the acquisition of Petro Stopping Centers in May 2007. Includes all fuel sold by the company, both at its retail travel center sites and also on a wholesale basis including to franchisees, but excludes fuel sold at travel centers operated by franchisees. Fuel comprises mainly diesel fuel.
2
MAJOR HOLDERS
HPT rent “slave” due to $2+ billion of operating leases through 2022/24. This could prove crippling if a U.S. trucking recovery is not sustained. HPT’s bargaining position versus TravelCenters may lead to value transferring from shareholders to HPT. Potential for increased competition due to Pilot acquisition of Flying J in July. The #1 truck stop operator bought #2 Flying J out of bankruptcy, creating a rival more than twice TravelCenters’ size. Conflicts of interest with HPT and Reit Management & Research (RMR), which provides management services to HPT and the company. The company’s CEO/CFO are also RMR employees.
CEO O'Brien 4% | Other insiders 3%* | HPT 9% | RenTech 6% | Whippoorwill 2% | GS 2% | Leucadia 2% | T2 1% *
Excludes holdings of director Portnoy who represents HPT.
RATINGS
VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value? DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss? MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized? FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital? EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving? MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE TravelCenters’ shares are priced as if the company’s survival is imminently in danger. Although high operating leverage and long-term lease obligations may lead to big losses if U.S. trucking activity worsens, the company has a supportive landlord in HPT, as well as sufficient near-term liquidity. Moreover, free cash flow was roughly breakeven in the June quarter, even after deducting $15 million of deferred cash rent payable to HPT. If recent improvements in trucking activity are sustained, shares could deliver multiples on investors’ money as TravelCenters is repriced from an HPT “rent slave” to a going concern. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 143 of 175
…additional insight into TravelCenters: OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE Conservative
Base Case
Aggressive
6x 2Q10 annualized EBIT (0.5% EBIT margin)
7x EBIT (based on 0.75% EBIT margin on LTM revenue)
8x EBIT (based on 1.0% EBIT margin on LTM revenue)
$5,493
$5,493
$5,493
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
($ in millions) Valuation Methodology Revenue (LTM June 30, 2010) 1
Estimated EBIT margin Estimated EBIT
$27
$41
$55
Fair value multiple
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
Estimated Enterprise Value
$165
$288
$439
Less: Net debt
2
Estimated fair value of the equity of TravelCenters3 Implied multiple of tangible shareholders’ equity4
(50)
(50)
(50)
$115 million
$239 million
$390 million
$7 per share
$14 per share
$22 per share
0.5x
1.0x
1.6x
1
EBIT margin in the "conservative" case corresponds to the actual EBIT margin during 2Q10. Our "base" and "aggressive" cases assume the company can sustain an improved EBIT margin in a more normalized U.S. trucking industry environment. The company's 2005/06 EBIT margin was 2.0%.
2
Includes $170 million of cash offset by $120 million of deferred rent and $100 million of capitalized leases as of June 30, 2010.
3
Based on 17.3 million shares outstanding.
4
Based on tangible shareholders' equity as of June 30, 2010.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
SELECTED SAME SITE OPERATING DATA (in thousands, except for number of travel centers and percentage amounts) Three Months Ended June 30, 2010 2009 Change Number of company operated travel centers(2) Total fuel sales volume (gallons)
185
185
486,773
454,643
7.1%
Six Months Ended June 30, 2010 2009 Change 185
185
968,553
896,325
8.1%
Total fuel revenues
$
1,154,569
$
803,890
43.6%
$
2,227,811
$
1,479,417
50.6%
Total fuel gross margin
$
74,018
$
58,049
27.5%
$
124,003
$
117,698
5.4%
Total nonfuel revenues Total nonfuel gross margin
$ $
299,534 174,289
$ $
281,226 161,583
6.5% 7.9%
$ $
560,168 325,139
$ $
539,019 313,514
3.9% 3.7%
Nonfuel gross margin percentage
58.2%
57.5%
70 b.p.
58.0%
58.2%
20 b.p.
Total gross margin Site level operating expenses(3)
$ $
248,307 156,467
$ $
219,632 147,728
13.1% 5.9%
$ $
449,142 308,207
$ $
431,212 291,179
4.2% 5.8%
Net
$
91,840
$
71,904
27.7%
$
140,935
$
140,033
0.6%
(1) Includes operating data of company operated travel centers only, excluding data of two travel centers owned by a joint venture and the travel centers operated by TA’s franchisees. (2) Includes travel centers that were operated by TA during the entire period presented. One company operated site is excluded from this same site comparison because it has been temporarily closed since May 2010 as a result of flooding. (3) Excludes real estate rent expense. Source: Company.
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 144 of 175
FRANCHISED LOCATIONS, as of December 31, 2009 Alabama Florida Georgia (2) Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Maryland (2) Minnesota Missouri North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oregon Pennsylvania South Carolina (2) Tennessee Texas Virginia (2) Wisconsin Total
Brand Affiliation of Sites (1) TA Petro Total 1 1 2 2 — 2 2 1 3 — 2 2 1 3 4 1 — 1 2 2 4 — 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 1 — 1 — 1 1 2 1 3 1 — 1 1 2 3 — 1 1 3 — 3 2 — 2 — 2 2 1 2 3 23 22 45
Ownership of Sites By (1) Hospitality Trust Franchisee or Others 1 1 2 — 2 1 — 2 1 3 — 1 — 4 — 1 — 2 — 4 — 1 — 1 — 3 — 1 — 3 — 1 2 1 2 — — 2 — 3 10 35
COMPANY-OPERATED LOCATIONS, as of December 31, 2009 Alabama Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Florida Georgia Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kentucky Louisiana Maryland Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Nebraska Nevada New New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania South Carolina Tennessee Texas Utah Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Ontario, Total
Brand Affiliation of Sites (1) TA Petro Total 2 2 4 4 2 6 2 2 4 10 3 13 3 — 3 3 — 3 4 1 5 5 2 7 1 — 1 7 1 8 5 1 6 1 — 1 2 2 4 4 3 7 3 — 3 4 — 4 1 — 1 1 1 2 4 1 5 2 1 3 3 2 5 1 — 1 3 1 4 5 1 6 5 1 6 2 1 3 10 4 14 3 1 4 2 1 3 8 1 9 3 — 3 4 2 6 11 6 17 2 — 2 4 — 4 1 1 2 2 — 2 2 — 2 3 1 4 1 — 1 143 45 188
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TA 1 — — 2 — — — — — 1 — — 1 1 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 2 — — — — — — 1 9
HPT 3 6 4 9 3 3 5 7 1 7 6 1 3 6 3 4 1 1 5 3 5 1 4 6 6 3 14 4 3 9 2 6 15 2 4 2 2 2 4 — 175
Ownership of Sites by (1) Joint Venture Others (2) — — — — — — 2 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 1 — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 2 2
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August 27, 2010 – Page 145 of 175
Snapshot of 100 Superinvestor Holdings In Alphabetical Order Company / Ticker American Capital / ACAS Aon Corp. / AON Apollo Group / APOL Apple / AAPL Arris Group / ARRS Automatic Data / ADP Bally Technologies / BYI Bank of America / BAC Bank of NY Mellon / BK Baxter International / BAX BP / BP Broadridge Financial / BR Canadian Natural / CNQ CF Industries / CF Chesapeake Energy / CHK Citigroup / C Coca-Cola / KO Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB Corning / GLW Covidien / COV DaVita / DVA Dell / DELL DIRECTV / DTV Discovery Comms / DISCA Dollar Tree / DLTR eBay / EBAY Ensco / ESV Enstar Group / ESGR Estee Lauder / EL Fiserv / FISV Franklin Resources / BEN GameStop / GME General Electric / GE Goldman Sachs / GS Google / GOOG H&R Block / HRB Hess / HES Innophos / IPHS Intel / INTC Ituran Location / ITRN Jo-Ann Stores / JAS Johnson & Johnson / JNJ JPMorgan Chase / JPM Key Energy Services / KEG Kraft Foods / KFT Leap Wireless / LEAP Liberty Interactive / LINTA Life Technologies / LIFE Lincare / LNCR
Industry Investment Services Insurance (miscellaneous) Schools Computer Hardware Comms Equipment Business Services Casinos & Gaming Money Center Banks Investment Services Medical Equipment Oil & Gas - Integrated Business Services Oil & Gas Operations Chemical Manufacturing Oil & Gas Operations Money Center Banks Beverages (non-alcoholic) Beverages (non-alcoholic) Tires Comms Equipment Medical Equipment Healthcare Facilities Computer Hardware Broadcasting & Cable Broadcasting & Cable Retail (dep't & discount) Retail (online) Oil Well Services Insurance (miscellaneous) Household Products Computer Services Investment Services Retail (technology) Conglomerates Investment Services Computer Services Personal Services Oil & Gas - Integrated Chemical Manufacturing Semiconductors Security Solutions Retail (specialty) Major Drugs Investment Services Oil Well Services Food Processing Comms Services Broadcasting & Cable Biotechnology & Drugs Healthcare Facilities
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Notable Shareholders Kleinheinz, Paulson Breeden, Southeastern Scout, Tiger Global, Weitz Blue Ridge, Greenlight Sageview, Shamrock Pershing Sq., West Coast Breeden, Wanger Chou, Fairholme, Paulson Maverick, Southeastern Sageview, Shumway Chou, Fairholme Brave Warrior, Centaur Wintergreen Appaloosa, H Partners BP, Icahn, Southeastern ESL, Fairholme, Paulson BRK, Eagle, Wintergreen Gates, Scout, Third Point WL Ross, Donald Smith Cap Re, Maverick Artisan, FPA, Pennant Gates, Glenview, Pennant Hawkshaw, Southeastern Southeastern, Tiger Global Blue Ridge, Eagle, Weitz Akre, Blue Ridge Centaur, FPA, Scout Eagle, Greenlight Akre, Flowers, Royce Lone Pine, Viking Brave Warrior, BRK Edinburgh, Wintergreen Adage, Centaur, Munder Edinburgh, Markel Fairholme, Pabrai, Paulson Brave Warrior, Weitz Artisan, Breeden, Davis BP, Cap World, Viking Integrity, WL Ross Fairfax, Markel, Pennant Baupost, Sageview SouthernSun, WL Ross BRK, Fairfax, West Coast Lone Pine, Paulson H Partners, MHR, WL Ross BRK, Pershing Square Citadel, H Partners, MHR Southeastern, Third Point Glenview, Sageview FPA, Glenview, Lone Pine
Recent Price ($) 5.01 36.91 40.72 249.64 8.57 39.40 33.04 12.87 24.65 44.57 36.40 20.16 32.20 90.01 20.38 3.75 55.30 29.02 18.19 16.10 38.09 63.82 12.07 38.05 37.82 44.62 23.37 41.51 70.35 57.39 51.26 98.92 18.81 15.03 148.24 462.02 13.47 51.24 27.60 18.91 13.65 38.03 58.74 37.14 8.46 29.10 11.13 10.50 44.33 23.76
YTD Price ∆ 105% -4% -33% 18% -25% -8% -20% -15% -12% -24% -37% -11% -11% -1% -21% 13% -3% 37% -9% -17% -20% 9% -16% 14% 23% 39% -1% 4% -4% 19% 6% -6% -14% -1% -12% -25% -40% -15% 20% -7% 6% 5% -9% -11% -4% 7% -37% -3% -15% -4%
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Market Value ($mn) 1,707 9,955 6,007 228,062 1,073 19,818 1,797 129,136 29,926 26,045 113,998 2,555 35,078 6,398 13,335 108,651 127,713 14,585 1,118 25,142 19,104 6,548 23,636 33,811 10,765 5,665 30,665 5,936 973 11,296 7,694 22,266 2,828 160,689 76,435 147,249 4,355 16,828 591 105,291 320 1,039 161,796 147,266 1,063 50,752 872 6,280 8,127 2,331
Enter. Value ($mn) nm nm 5,278 203,774 622 18,186 1,826 nm nm 28,559 131,135 2,466 43,997 8,398 26,300 nm 129,256 22,047 1,227 22,834 19,942 9,334 16,448 40,520 13,665 5,451 25,767 4,965 nm 11,404 10,795 17,973 2,987 576,578 nm 117,190 3,665 19,791 714 89,261 258 984 154,547 nm 1,539 77,928 3,062 11,275 10,081 2,701
Website www.americancapital.com www.aon.com www.apollogrp.edu www.apple.com www.arrisi.com www.adp.com www.ballytech.com www.bankofamerica.com www.bnymellon.com www.baxter.com www.bp.com www.broadridge.com www.cnrl.com www.cfindustries.com www.chk.com www.citigroup.com thecoca-colacompany.com www.cokecce.com www.coopertires.com www.corning.com www.covidien.com www.davita.com www.dell.com www.directv.com discoverycommunications.com www.dollartree.com www.ebay.com enscointernational.com www.enstargroup.com www.elcompanies.com www.fiserv.com /www.franklintempleton.com www.gamestop.com www.ge.com www.goldmansachs.com www.google.com www.handrblock.com www.hess.com www.innophos.com www.intel.com www.ituran.com www.joann.com www.jnj.com www.jpmorganchase.com www.keyenergy.com kraftfoodscompany.com www.leapwireless.com www.libertymedia.com www.lifetechnologies.com www.lincare.com
August 27, 2010 – Page 146 of 175
Company / Ticker Live Nation / LYV Lowe's / LOW Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC Macy's / M MasterCard / MA MBIA / MBI McClatchy / MNI McDonald's / MCD Merck / MRK Microsoft / MSFT Nalco Holding / NLC NCR / NCR News Corp. / NWSA Novartis / NVS Ocwen Financial / OCN Oracle / ORCL Pfizer / PFE Philip Morris / PM Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL Potash / POT Pride International / PDE Redwood Trust / RWT Republic Airways / RJET Reynolds American / RAI Sears Holdings / SHLD Service Corp. / SCI Smurfit-Stone / SSCC Sprint Nextel / S SuperMedia / SPMD Symantec / SYMC Target / TGT Teva Pharma / TEVA Time Warner / TWX TN Commerce Banc / TNCC Transocean / RIG TravelCenters / TA Tree.com / TREE Tyco International / TYC U.S. Bancorp / USB Union Pacific / UNP Viacom / VIA.B ViaSat / VSAT Visa / V Wal-Mart / WMT Walt Disney / DIS Washington Post / WPO Wells Fargo / WFC Xerium Technologies / XRM Xerox / XRX Yum! Brands / YUM
Industry Casinos & Gaming Retail (home improvement) Misc. Transportation Retail (dep't & discount) Retail Financial Services Property & Casualty Printing & Publishing Restaurants Major Drugs Software & Programming Chemical Manufacturing Electronic Instruments Broadcasting & Cable Major Drugs Retail Financial Services Software & Programming Major Drugs Tobacco Airline Non-Metallic Mining Oil Well Services Real Estate Operations Airline Tobacco Retail (dep't & discount) Personal Services Paper & Paper Products Comms Services Business Services Software & Programming Retail (dep't & discount) Biotechnology & Drugs Broadcasting & Cable Regional Banks Oil Well Services Retail (specialty) Retail Financial Services Conglomerates Money Center Banks Railroads Broadcasting & Cable Comms Equipment Retail Financial Services Retail (dep't & discount) Broadcasting & Cable Printing & Publishing Regional Banks Textiles - Non-Apparel Office Equipment Restaurants
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Notable Shareholders Lone Pine, Pennant Eagle, Southeastern Axial, MSD, Senator Appaloosa, Third Point Brave Warrior, Scout Fairfax, Fairholme Chou, Paulson Clarium, Blue Ridge, Scout Appaloosa, Fairfax Eagle, Greenlight, Weitz BRK, Legg, MSD, MS Greenlight, LSV, Perkins Baupost, Viking Global Dodge & Cox, Gruss Second Curve, Kleinheinz Children's, Glenview Appaloosa, Greenlight Markel, Wintergreen Apollo, Pabrai, RenTech Cap World, Pabrai, Weitz FPA, MHR, Primecap NWQ, Perkins, Weitz Greenlight, Kleinheinz Wintergreen Chou, ESL, Fairholme Southeastern Lane Fine Chou, Harbinger Appaloosa, Paulson Edinburgh, Hawkshaw Pershing Square, Weitz Maverick, Shumway Shumway, Viking Second Curve FPA, H Partners Bares, Leucadia Second Curve, Weitz Scout, Viking, Weitz Brave Warrior, BRK, Fairfax Children's, Shumway Children's, Tiger Global Baupost, Times Square Brave Warrior, Children's BRK, Eagle, Markel Markel, Southeastern Bares, BRK, Weitz Appaloosa, BRK, Fairfax Third Point Glenview, Greenlight Pershing Sq., Southeastern
Recent Price ($) 8.80 20.64 13.23 20.97 206.37 9.06 2.87 73.08 34.44 24.23 23.01 12.61 12.73 50.75 9.07 23.02 15.92 51.98 4.97 149.67 23.04 14.34 6.69 56.64 61.59 7.97 18.30 4.19 11.94 13.80 52.15 50.28 30.31 4.37 51.00 3.61 7.15 38.70 21.74 74.26 31.68 34.40 70.10 50.22 33.05 347.68 24.60 10.97 8.97 42.32
YTD Price ∆ 3% -12% 8% 25% -19% 128% -19% 17% -6% -21% -10% 13% -7% -7% -5% -6% -12% 8% -28% 38% -28% -1% -9% 7% -26% -3% -44% 14% na -23% 8% -11% 4% 0% -38% -18% -22% 8% -3% 16% 7% 8% -20% -6% 2% -21% -9% -28% 6% 21%
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Market Value ($mn) 1,527 29,371 605 8,854 27,005 1,816 243 77,782 107,393 209,676 3,182 2,024 33,368 116,091 909 115,704 128,413 95,273 92 44,392 4,047 1,118 232 16,512 6,815 1,967 1,830 12,505 185 10,893 37,684 47,012 34,075 25 16,269 62 80 19,261 41,679 36,949 19,266 1,396 58,890 186,299 63,212 3,187 128,742 164 12,406 19,764
Enter. Value ($mn) 2,265 32,934 1,758 15,748 23,571 nm 1,997 86,743 116,925 178,827 5,951 1,587 37,979 111,736 nm 111,890 156,340 108,920 578 47,821 4,913 5,011 2,848 19,310 8,808 3,677 2,696 28,529 2,458 10,051 52,696 49,151 46,357 nm 24,807 8 nm 21,606 nm 44,997 25,347 1,648 53,647 225,337 72,888 2,547 nm 605 21,939 22,469
Website www.livenation.com www.lowes.com www.macquarie.com/mic www.macysinc.com www.mastercard.com www.mbia.com www.mcclatchy.com www.mcdonalds.com www.merck.com www.microsoft.com www.nalco.com www.ncr.com www.newscorp.com www.novartis.com www.ocwen.com www.oracle.com www.pfizer.com philipmorrisinternational.com www.pncl.com www.potashcorp.com www.prideinternational.com www.redwoodtrust.com republicairways.com reynoldsamerican.com www.searsholdings.com www.sci-corp.com www.smurfit.com www.sprint.com www.supermedia.com www.symantec.com www.target.com www.tevapharm.com www.timewarner.com www.tncommercebank.com www.deepwater.com. www.tatravelcenters.com www.tree.com www.tyco.com www.usbank.com www.up.com www.viacom.com www.viasat.com www.visa.com walmartstores.com disney.go.com www.washpostco.com www.wellsfargo.com www.xerium.com www.xerox.com www.yum.com
August 27, 2010 – Page 147 of 175
By Market Value
Company / Ticker Apple / AAPL Microsoft / MSFT Wal-Mart / WMT Johnson & Johnson / JNJ General Electric / GE JPMorgan Chase / JPM Google / GOOG Bank of America / BAC Wells Fargo / WFC Pfizer / PFE Coca-Cola / KO Novartis / NVS Oracle / ORCL BP / BP Citigroup / C Merck / MRK Intel / INTC Philip Morris / PM McDonald's / MCD Goldman Sachs / GS Walt Disney / DIS Visa / V Kraft Foods / KFT Teva Pharma / TEVA Potash / POT U.S. Bancorp / USB Target / TGT Union Pacific / UNP Canadian Natural / CNQ Time Warner / TWX DIRECTV / DTV News Corp. / NWSA eBay / EBAY Bank of NY Mellon / BK Lowe's / LOW MasterCard / MA Baxter International / BAX Corning / GLW Dell / DELL Franklin Resources / BEN Automatic Data / ADP Yum! Brands / YUM Viacom / VIA.B Tyco International / TYC Covidien / COV Hess / HES Reynolds American / RAI Transocean / RIG Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Chesapeake Energy / CHK
Recent Price ($) 249.64 24.23 50.22 58.74 15.03 37.14 462.02 12.87 24.60 15.92 55.30 50.75 23.02 36.40 3.75 34.44 18.91 51.98 73.08 148.24 33.05 70.10 29.10 50.28 149.67 21.74 52.15 74.26 32.20 30.31 38.05 12.73 23.37 24.65 20.64 206.37 44.57 16.10 12.07 98.92 39.40 42.32 31.68 38.70 38.09 51.24 56.64 51.00 29.02 20.38
∆ to 52-Week Low High -34% 12% -6% 30% -5% 12% -3% 13% -13% 31% -5% 30% -6% 36% -1% 54% -1% 39% -12% 28% -13% 8% -14% 11% -13% 16% -27% 71% -17% 45% -13% 21% -3% 29% -45% 4% -26% 1% -13% 31% -24% 15% -5% 39% -12% 7% -7% 29% -44% 0% -5% 31% -14% 12% -27% 6% -15% 25% -17% 12% -36% 5% -19% 34% -18% 21% -2% 32% -7% 38% -6% 31% -10% 39% -12% 31% -3% 45% -15% 23% -33% 16% -23% 4% -25% 17% -21% 5% -7% 38% -5% 30% -31% 3% -18% 86% -35% 2% -4% 47%
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Market Value ($mn) 228,062 209,676 186,299 161,796 160,689 147,266 147,249 129,136 128,742 128,413 127,713 116,091 115,704 113,998 108,651 107,393 105,291 95,273 77,782 76,435 63,212 58,890 50,752 47,012 44,392 41,679 37,684 36,949 35,078 34,075 33,811 33,368 30,665 29,926 29,371 27,005 26,045 25,142 23,636 22,266 19,818 19,764 19,266 19,261 19,104 16,828 16,512 16,269 14,585 13,335
Enter. Value ($mn) 203,774 178,827 225,337 154,547 576,578 nm 117,190 nm nm 156,340 129,256 111,736 111,890 131,135 nm 116,925 89,261 108,920 86,743 nm 72,888 53,647 77,928 49,151 47,821 nm 52,696 44,997 43,997 46,357 40,520 37,979 25,767 nm 32,934 23,571 28,559 22,834 16,448 17,973 18,186 22,469 25,347 21,606 19,942 19,791 19,310 24,807 22,047 26,300
P/E Last FY 27x 12x 14x 13x 15x 17x 23x nm 14x 13x 19x 14x 19x 7x nm 6x 25x 16x 18x 7x 19x 25x 14x 23x 46x 22x 16x 20x 32x 17x 40x 13x 13x nm 17x 18x 12x 13x 17x 26x 16x 19x 12x nm 21x 23x 17x 5x 20x nm
This FY 17x 10x 13x 12x 14x 10x 17x 14x 12x 7x 16x 10x 12x 6x 10x 10x 9x 14x 16x 10x 16x 18x 14x 11x 27x 13x 13x 14x 13x 13x 16x 12x 14x 11x 15x 15x 11x 7x 10x 16x 16x 17x 11x 15x 12x 11x 11x 7x 16x 7x
P/E (Est.) Next In FY 2 Yrs 14x 12x 9x 8x 11x 10x 12x 11x 12x 10x 8x 7x 15x 13x 8x 6x 9x 7x 7x 7x 15x 14x 10x 10x 11x 10x 6x 5x 8x 7x 9x 9x 9x 9x 12x 11x 15x 14x 8x 7x 14x 12x 15x 13x 13x 11x 10x 9x 20x 18x 10x 8x 12x 11x 12x 11x 10x 9x 12x 10x 12x 10x 10x 9x 13x 12x 9x 8x 12x 11x 13x 11x 11x 10x 8x 7x 8x 8x 14x 12x 15x 14x 15x 13x 10x 9x 12x 11x 11x 10x 9x 8x 11x 10x 6x 6x 16x 14x 7x 6x
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Price/ Tang. Book 5.4x 6.4x 3.8x 7.4x 4.0x 1.5x 4.3x 1.2x 2.2x nm 9.5x 3.4x >99x 1.8x 0.9x >99x 2.6x nm 7.3x 1.3x 14.5x 16.4x nm 13.6x 6.9x 2.9x 2.5x 2.1x 1.7x nm nm 10.9x 4.0x 3.6x 1.5x 7.8x 7.6x 1.5x 91.3x 4.1x 3.6x >99x nm 14.6x 17.8x 1.3x nm 1.3x nm 1.1x
Div. Yield 2.1% 2.4% 3.7% 3.2% .5% .3% .8% 4.5% 3.2% 3.8% .9% 9.2% 4.4% 3.3% 4.5% 3.0% .9% 1.1% .7% 4.0% 1.5% .3% .9% 1.9% 1.8% .9% 2.8% 1.2% 1.5% 2.1% .3% 2.6% 1.2% .9% 3.5% 2.0% 1.9% .8% 6.4% 1.2% 1.5%
Notable Shareholders Blue Ridge, Greenlight Eagle, Greenlight, Weitz BRK, Eagle, Markel BRK, Fairfax, West Coast Edinburgh, Markel Lone Pine, Paulson Brave Warrior, Weitz Chou, Fairholme, Paulson Appaloosa, BRK, Fairfax Appaloosa, Greenlight BRK, Eagle, Wintergreen Dodge & Cox, Gruss Children's, Glenview Chou, Fairholme ESL, Fairholme, Paulson Appaloosa, Fairfax Fairfax, Markel, Pennant Markel, Wintergreen Clarium, Blue Ridge, Scout Fairholme, Pabrai, Paulson Markel, Southeastern Brave Warrior, Children's BRK, Pershing Square Maverick, Shumway Cap World, Pabrai, Weitz Brave Warrior, BRK, Fairfax Pershing Square, Weitz Children's, Shumway Wintergreen Shumway, Viking Southeastern, Tiger Global Baupost, Viking Global Centaur, FPA, Scout Maverick, Southeastern Eagle, Southeastern Brave Warrior, Scout Sageview, Shumway Cap Re, Maverick Hawkshaw, Southeastern Edinburgh, Wintergreen Pershing Sq., West Coast Pershing Sq., Southeastern Children's, Tiger Global Scout, Viking, Weitz Artisan, FPA, Pennant BP, Cap World, Viking Wintergreen FPA, H Partners Gates, Scout, Third Point BP, Icahn, Southeastern August 27, 2010 – Page 148 of 175
Company / Ticker Sprint Nextel / S Xerox / XRX Estee Lauder / EL Symantec / SYMC Discovery Comms / DISCA Aon Corp. / AON Macy's / M Life Technologies / LIFE Fiserv / FISV Sears Holdings / SHLD DaVita / DVA CF Industries / CF Liberty Interactive / LINTA Apollo Group / APOL Ensco / ESV Dollar Tree / DLTR H&R Block / HRB Pride International / PDE Washington Post / WPO Nalco Holding / NLC GameStop / GME Broadridge Financial / BR Lincare / LNCR NCR / NCR Service Corp. / SCI Smurfit-Stone / SSCC MBIA / MBI Bally Technologies / BYI American Capital / ACAS Live Nation / LYV ViaSat / VSAT Redwood Trust / RWT Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB Arris Group / ARRS Key Energy Services / KEG Jo-Ann Stores / JAS Enstar Group / ESGR Ocwen Financial / OCN Leap Wireless / LEAP Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC Innophos / IPHS Ituran Location / ITRN McClatchy / MNI Republic Airways / RJET SuperMedia / SPMD Xerium Technologies / XRM Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL Tree.com / TREE TravelCenters / TA TN Commerce Banc / TNCC
Recent Price ($) 4.19 8.97 57.39 13.80 37.82 36.91 20.97 44.33 51.26 61.59 63.82 90.01 10.50 40.72 41.51 44.62 13.47 23.04 347.68 23.01 18.81 20.16 23.76 12.61 7.97 18.30 9.06 33.04 5.01 8.80 34.40 14.34 18.19 8.57 8.46 38.03 70.35 9.07 11.13 13.23 27.60 13.65 2.87 6.69 11.94 10.97 4.97 7.15 3.61 4.37
∆ to 52-Week Low High -34% 27% -20% 31% -42% 24% -13% 39% -34% 6% -5% 20% -30% 20% -7% 27% -13% 8% -4% 104% -20% 5% -36% 22% -14% 60% -6% 89% -20% 26% -33% 2% 0% 72% -7% 50% -15% 57% -26% 27% -9% 52% -8% 19% -30% 41% -27% 27% -22% 22% -82% 618% -65% 21% -9% 44% -58% 33% -28% 92% -31% 11% -10% 24% -26% 28% -2% 60% -24% 36% -36% 27% -23% 8% -2% 41% -15% 94% -66% 29% -37% 16% -34% 24% -41% 149% -33% 59% -1% 309% -14% 166% -2% 75% -16% 37% -43% 142% -30% 155%
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Market Value ($mn) 12,505 12,406 11,296 10,893 10,765 9,955 8,854 8,127 7,694 6,815 6,548 6,398 6,280 6,007 5,936 5,665 4,355 4,047 3,187 3,182 2,828 2,555 2,331 2,024 1,967 1,830 1,816 1,797 1,707 1,527 1,396 1,118 1,118 1,073 1,063 1,039 973 909 872 605 591 320 243 232 185 164 92 80 62 25
Enter. Value ($mn) 28,529 21,939 11,404 10,051 13,665 nm 15,748 10,081 10,795 8,808 9,334 8,398 11,275 5,278 4,965 5,451 3,665 4,913 2,547 5,951 2,987 2,466 2,701 1,587 3,677 2,696 nm 1,826 nm 2,265 1,648 5,011 1,227 622 1,539 984 nm nm 3,062 1,758 714 258 1,997 2,848 2,458 605 578 91 8 nm
P/E Last FY nm 16x 24x 16x 29x 17x 25x 55x 17x 31x 16x 12x 24x 11x 8x 19x 9x 12x 36x 52x 8x 12x 18x nm 16x nm 3x 18x nm nm 49x 26x 13x 12x nm 15x 7x nm nm nm 10x 16x 4x 6x 0x nm 2x nm nm nm
This FY nm 10x 19x 11x 21x 11x 11x 13x 13x 24x 15x 12x 12x 8x 11x 15x 9x 15x 13x 15x 7x 13x 13x 9x 14x 17x nm 15x 9x nm 20x 9x 8x 10x >99x 12x 7x 12x nm 5x 10x 14x 5x nm 2x na 4x nm nm 7x
P/E (Est.) Next In FY 2 Yrs nm nm 8x 7x 16x 14x 9x 8x 18x 15x 11x 9x 10x 9x 12x 11x 12x 10x 23x 32x 14x 11x 12x 11x 15x 11x 7x 7x 10x 8x 13x 12x 7x 7x 8x 7x 11x na 13x 12x 7x 7x 11x na 11x 10x 8x 8x 13x 12x 9x 8x nm na 13x 12x 8x 6x 73x 31x 20x 12x 9x na 8x 7x 9x 8x 14x 19x 10x 9x 6x 6x 6x 6x nm 14x 5x 5x 9x 7x 13x 12x 4x na 7x 6x 7x 7x na na 4x 4x nm 6x nm na 7x 5x
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Price/ Tang. Book nm nm 10.4x nm nm nm 18.2x nm nm 1.7x nm 3.8x nm 7.9x 1.1x 4.5x 18.7x 0.9x 3.2x nm 3.9x 10.2x nm 3.5x 9.9x 0.9x 0.7x 5.2x 0.5x nm 2.4x 1.1x 2.8x 1.8x 3.3x 1.8x 1.2x 1.2x nm nm 2.6x 2.6x nm 0.7x nm nm 1.1x 1.7x 0.3x 0.3x
Div. Yield 1.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.0% .4% 3.4% 4.5% 2.6% .6% 3.0% 3.4% 2.0% 7.0% 2.3% 2.5% 11.0% -
Notable Shareholders Chou, Harbinger Glenview, Greenlight Lone Pine, Viking Edinburgh, Hawkshaw Blue Ridge, Eagle, Weitz Breeden, Southeastern Appaloosa, Third Point Glenview, Sageview Brave Warrior, BRK Chou, ESL, Fairholme Gates, Glenview, Pennant Appaloosa, H Partners Southeastern, Third Point Scout, Tiger Global, Weitz Eagle, Greenlight Akre, Blue Ridge Artisan, Breeden, Davis FPA, MHR, Primecap Bares, BRK, Weitz BRK, Legg, MSD, MS Adage, Centaur, Munder Brave Warrior, Centaur FPA, Glenview, Lone Pine Greenlight, LSV, Perkins Southeastern Lane Fine Fairfax, Fairholme Breeden, Wanger Kleinheinz, Paulson Lone Pine, Pennant Baupost, Times Square NWQ, Perkins, Weitz WL Ross, Donald Smith Sageview, Shamrock H Partners, MHR, WL Ross SouthernSun, WL Ross Akre, Flowers, Royce Second Curve, Kleinheinz Citadel, H Partners, MHR Axial, MSD, Senator Integrity, WL Ross Baupost, Sageview Chou, Paulson Greenlight, Kleinheinz Appaloosa, Paulson Third Point Apollo, Pabrai, RenTech Second Curve, Weitz Bares, Leucadia Second Curve
August 27, 2010 – Page 149 of 175
By Sector
Sector Basic Materials Basic Materials Basic Materials Basic Materials Basic Materials Conglomerates Conglomerates Consumer Consumer Consumer Consumer Consumer Consumer Consumer Consumer Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Energy Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care Health Care
Industry Chemical Manufacturing Chemical Manufacturing Chemical Manufacturing Non-Metallic Mining Paper & Paper Products Conglomerates Conglomerates Beverages (non-alcoholic) Beverages (non-alcoholic) Food Processing Household Products Textiles - Non-Apparel Tires Tobacco Tobacco Oil & Gas - Integrated Oil & Gas - Integrated Oil & Gas Operations Oil & Gas Operations Oil Well Services Oil Well Services Oil Well Services Oil Well Services Insurance (miscellaneous) Insurance (miscellaneous) Investment Services Investment Services Investment Services Investment Services Investment Services Money Center Banks Money Center Banks Money Center Banks Property & Casualty Regional Banks Regional Banks Retail Financial Services Retail Financial Services Retail Financial Services Retail Financial Services Biotechnology & Drugs Biotechnology & Drugs Healthcare Facilities Healthcare Facilities Major Drugs Major Drugs Major Drugs Major Drugs Medical Equipment Medical Equipment
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Company / Ticker CF Industries / CF Innophos / IPHS Nalco Holding / NLC Potash / POT Smurfit-Stone / SSCC General Electric / GE Tyco International / TYC Coca-Cola / KO Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Kraft Foods / KFT Estee Lauder / EL Xerium Technologies / XRM Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB Philip Morris / PM Reynolds American / RAI BP / BP Hess / HES Canadian Natural / CNQ Chesapeake Energy / CHK Ensco / ESV Key Energy Services / KEG Pride International / PDE Transocean / RIG Aon Corp. / AON Enstar Group / ESGR American Capital / ACAS Bank of NY Mellon / BK Franklin Resources / BEN Goldman Sachs / GS JPMorgan Chase / JPM Bank of America / BAC Citigroup / C U.S. Bancorp / USB MBIA / MBI TN Commerce Banc / TNCC Wells Fargo / WFC MasterCard / MA Ocwen Financial / OCN Tree.com / TREE Visa / V Life Technologies / LIFE Teva Pharma / TEVA DaVita / DVA Lincare / LNCR Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Merck / MRK Novartis / NVS Pfizer / PFE Baxter International / BAX Covidien / COV
Notable Shareholders Appaloosa, H Partners Integrity, WL Ross BRK, Legg, MSD, MS Cap World, Pabrai, Weitz Lane Fine Edinburgh, Markel Scout, Viking, Weitz BRK, Eagle, Wintergreen Gates, Scout, Third Point BRK, Pershing Square Lone Pine, Viking Third Point WL Ross, Donald Smith Markel, Wintergreen Wintergreen Chou, Fairholme BP, Cap World, Viking Wintergreen BP, Icahn, Southeastern Eagle, Greenlight H Partners, MHR, WL Ross FPA, MHR, Primecap FPA, H Partners Breeden, Southeastern Akre, Flowers, Royce Kleinheinz, Paulson Maverick, Southeastern Edinburgh, Wintergreen Fairholme, Pabrai, Paulson Lone Pine, Paulson Chou, Fairholme, Paulson ESL, Fairholme, Paulson Brave Warrior, BRK, Fairfax Fairfax, Fairholme Second Curve Appaloosa, BRK, Fairfax Brave Warrior, Scout Second Curve, Kleinheinz Second Curve, Weitz Brave Warrior, Children's Glenview, Sageview Maverick, Shumway Gates, Glenview, Pennant FPA, Glenview, Lone Pine BRK, Fairfax, West Coast Appaloosa, Fairfax Dodge & Cox, Gruss Appaloosa, Greenlight Sageview, Shumway Artisan, FPA, Pennant
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Recent Price ($) 90.01 27.60 23.01 149.67 18.30 15.03 38.70 55.30 29.02 29.10 57.39 10.97 18.19 51.98 56.64 36.40 51.24 32.20 20.38 41.51 8.46 23.04 51.00 36.91 70.35 5.01 24.65 98.92 148.24 37.14 12.87 3.75 21.74 9.06 4.37 24.60 206.37 9.07 7.15 70.10 44.33 50.28 63.82 23.76 58.74 34.44 50.75 15.92 44.57 38.09
YTD Price ∆ -1% 20% -10% 38% -44% -1% 8% -3% 37% 7% 19% -28% -9% 8% 7% -37% -15% -11% -21% 4% -4% -28% -38% -4% -4% 105% -12% -6% -12% -11% -15% 13% -3% 128% 0% -9% -19% -5% -22% -20% -15% -11% 9% -4% -9% -6% -7% -12% -24% -20%
Market Value ($mn) 6,398 591 3,182 44,392 1,830 160,689 19,261 127,713 14,585 50,752 11,296 164 1,118 95,273 16,512 113,998 16,828 35,078 13,335 5,936 1,063 4,047 16,269 9,955 973 1,707 29,926 22,266 76,435 147,266 129,136 108,651 41,679 1,816 25 128,742 27,005 909 80 58,890 8,127 47,012 6,548 2,331 161,796 107,393 116,091 128,413 26,045 19,104
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 12x 12x 10x 9x 15x 13x 27x 20x 17x 9x 14x 12x 15x 12x 16x 15x 16x 16x 14x 13x 19x 16x na na 8x 8x 14x 12x 11x 11x 6x 6x 11x 9x 13x 10x 7x 7x 11x 10x >99x 14x 15x 8x 7x 6x 11x 11x 7x 6x 9x 8x 11x 9x 16x 14x 10x 8x 10x 8x 14x 8x 10x 8x 13x 10x nm nm 7x 7x 12x 9x 15x 13x 12x 6x nm nm 18x 15x 13x 12x 11x 10x 15x 14x 13x 11x 12x 12x 10x 9x 10x 10x 7x 7x 11x 11x 12x 11x
August 27, 2010 – Page 150 of 175
Sector Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Services Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Technology Transportation Transportation Transportation Transportation
Industry Broadcasting & Cable Broadcasting & Cable Broadcasting & Cable Broadcasting & Cable Broadcasting & Cable Broadcasting & Cable Broadcasting & Cable Business Services Business Services Business Services Casinos & Gaming Casinos & Gaming Comms Services Comms Services Personal Services Personal Services Printing & Publishing Printing & Publishing Real Estate Operations Restaurants Restaurants Retail (dep't & discount) Retail (dep't & discount) Retail (dep't & discount) Retail (dep't & discount) Retail (dep't & discount) Retail (home improvement) Retail (online) Retail (specialty) Retail (specialty) Retail (technology) Schools Security Solutions Comms Equipment Comms Equipment Comms Equipment Computer Hardware Computer Hardware Computer Services Computer Services Electronic Instruments Office Equipment Semiconductors Software & Programming Software & Programming Software & Programming Airline Airline Misc. Transportation Railroads
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Company / Ticker DIRECTV / DTV Discovery Comms / DISCA Liberty Interactive / LINTA News Corp. / NWSA Time Warner / TWX Viacom / VIA.B Walt Disney / DIS Automatic Data / ADP Broadridge Financial / BR SuperMedia / SPMD Bally Technologies / BYI Live Nation / LYV Leap Wireless / LEAP Sprint Nextel / S H&R Block / HRB Service Corp. / SCI McClatchy / MNI Washington Post / WPO Redwood Trust / RWT McDonald's / MCD Yum! Brands / YUM Dollar Tree / DLTR Macy's / M Sears Holdings / SHLD Target / TGT Wal-Mart / WMT Lowe's / LOW eBay / EBAY Jo-Ann Stores / JAS TravelCenters / TA GameStop / GME Apollo Group / APOL Ituran Location / ITRN Arris Group / ARRS Corning / GLW ViaSat / VSAT Apple / AAPL Dell / DELL Fiserv / FISV Google / GOOG NCR / NCR Xerox / XRX Intel / INTC Microsoft / MSFT Oracle / ORCL Symantec / SYMC Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL Republic Airways / RJET Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC Union Pacific / UNP
Notable Shareholders Southeastern, Tiger Global Blue Ridge, Eagle, Weitz Southeastern, Third Point Baupost, Viking Global Shumway, Viking Children's, Tiger Global Markel, Southeastern Pershing Sq., West Coast Brave Warrior, Centaur Appaloosa, Paulson Breeden, Wanger Lone Pine, Pennant Citadel, H Partners, MHR Chou, Harbinger Artisan, Breeden, Davis Southeastern Chou, Paulson Bares, BRK, Weitz NWQ, Perkins, Weitz Clarium, Blue Ridge, Scout Pershing Sq., Southeastern Akre, Blue Ridge Appaloosa, Third Point Chou, ESL, Fairholme Pershing Square, Weitz BRK, Eagle, Markel Eagle, Southeastern Centaur, FPA, Scout SouthernSun, WL Ross Bares, Leucadia Adage, Centaur, Munder Scout, Tiger Global, Weitz Baupost, Sageview Sageview, Shamrock Cap Re, Maverick Baupost, Times Square Blue Ridge, Greenlight Hawkshaw, Southeastern Brave Warrior, BRK Brave Warrior, Weitz Greenlight, LSV, Perkins Glenview, Greenlight Fairfax, Markel, Pennant Eagle, Greenlight, Weitz Children's, Glenview Edinburgh, Hawkshaw Apollo, Pabrai, RenTech Greenlight, Kleinheinz Axial, MSD, Senator Children's, Shumway
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Recent Price ($) 38.05 37.82 10.50 12.73 30.31 31.68 33.05 39.40 20.16 11.94 33.04 8.80 11.13 4.19 13.47 7.97 2.87 347.68 14.34 73.08 42.32 44.62 20.97 61.59 52.15 50.22 20.64 23.37 38.03 3.61 18.81 40.72 13.65 8.57 16.10 34.40 249.64 12.07 51.26 462.02 12.61 8.97 18.91 24.23 23.02 13.80 4.97 6.69 13.23 74.26
YTD Price ∆ 14% 23% -3% -7% 4% 7% 2% -8% -11% na -20% 3% -37% 14% -40% -3% -19% -21% -1% 17% 21% 39% 25% -26% 8% -6% -12% -1% 5% -18% -14% -33% 6% -25% -17% 8% 18% -16% 6% -25% 13% 6% -7% -21% -6% -23% -28% -9% 8% 16%
Market Value ($mn) 33,811 10,765 6,280 33,368 34,075 19,266 63,212 19,818 2,555 185 1,797 1,527 872 12,505 4,355 1,967 243 3,187 1,118 77,782 19,764 5,665 8,854 6,815 37,684 186,299 29,371 30,665 1,039 62 2,828 6,007 320 1,073 25,142 1,396 228,062 23,636 7,694 147,249 2,024 12,406 105,291 209,676 115,704 10,893 92 232 605 36,949
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 12x 21x 18x 12x 15x 12x 10x 13x 12x 11x 10x 16x 14x 16x 15x 13x 11x 2x 7x 15x 13x nm 73x nm nm nm nm 9x 7x 14x 13x 5x 4x 13x 11x 9x 9x 16x 15x 17x 15x 15x 13x 11x 10x 24x 23x 13x 12x 13x 11x 15x 12x 14x 13x 12x 10x nm nm 7x 7x 8x 7x 14x 13x 10x 9x 7x 8x 20x 20x 17x 14x 10x 8x 13x 12x 17x 15x 9x 8x 10x 8x 9x 9x 10x 9x 12x 11x 11x 9x 4x 4x nm 7x 5x 5x 14x 12x
August 27, 2010 – Page 151 of 175
Stock Price Performance
Company / Ticker Xerium Technologies / XRM Citigroup / C TN Commerce Banc / TNCC American Capital / ACAS McClatchy / MNI Leap Wireless / LEAP TravelCenters / TA GameStop / GME Bank of America / BAC Sprint Nextel / S Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC Republic Airways / RJET Transocean / RIG General Electric / GE Redwood Trust / RWT Washington Post / WPO MBIA / MBI Dell / DELL BP / BP NCR / NCR Bank of NY Mellon / BK Hess / HES Chesapeake Energy / CHK Liberty Interactive / LINTA Xerox / XRX Service Corp. / SCI Enstar Group / ESGR Apollo Group / APOL Key Energy Services / KEG Merck / MRK Sears Holdings / SHLD Live Nation / LYV News Corp. / NWSA Bally Technologies / BYI Google / GOOG Corning / GLW Microsoft / MSFT U.S. Bancorp / USB Goldman Sachs / GS Ensco / ESV Pfizer / PFE eBay / EBAY Intel / INTC Viacom / VIA.B H&R Block / HRB Pride International / PDE Baxter International / BAX Aon Corp. / AON Macy's / M
Recent Price ($) 10.97 3.75 4.37 5.01 2.87 11.13 3.61 18.81 12.87 4.19 4.97 13.23 6.69 51.00 15.03 14.34 347.68 9.06 12.07 36.40 12.61 24.65 51.24 20.38 10.50 8.97 7.97 70.35 40.72 8.46 34.44 61.59 8.80 12.73 33.04 462.02 16.10 24.23 21.74 148.24 41.51 15.92 23.37 18.91 31.68 13.47 23.04 44.57 36.91 20.97
(sorted by price decline since December 31, 2007; if unavailable, then by YTD price decline)
∆ to 52-Week Low High -14% 166% -17% 45% -30% 155% -58% 33% -41% 149% -15% 94% -43% 142% -9% 52% -1% 54% -34% 27% -2% 75% -66% 29% -33% 59% -18% 86% -13% 31% -10% 24% -15% 57% -65% 21% -3% 45% -27% 71% -27% 27% -2% 32% -5% 30% -4% 47% -14% 60% -20% 31% -22% 22% -23% 8% -6% 89% -24% 36% -13% 21% -4% 104% -28% 92% -19% 34% -9% 44% -6% 36% -12% 31% -6% 30% -5% 31% -13% 31% -20% 26% -12% 28% -18% 21% -3% 29% -25% 17% 0% 72% -7% 50% -10% 39% -5% 20% -30% 20%
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Market Value ($mn) 164 108,651 25 1,707 243 872 62 2,828 129,136 12,505 92 605 232 16,269 160,689 1,118 3,187 1,816 23,636 113,998 2,024 29,926 16,828 13,335 6,280 12,406 1,967 973 6,007 1,063 107,393 6,815 1,527 33,368 1,797 147,249 25,142 209,676 41,679 76,435 5,936 128,413 30,665 105,291 19,266 4,355 4,047 26,045 9,955 8,854
Enter. Value ($mn) 605 nm nm nm 1,997 3,062 8 2,987 nm 28,529 578 1,758 2,848 24,807 576,578 5,011 2,547 nm 16,448 131,135 1,587 nm 19,791 26,300 11,275 21,939 3,677 nm 5,278 1,539 116,925 8,808 2,265 37,979 1,826 117,190 22,834 178,827 nm nm 4,965 156,340 25,767 89,261 25,347 3,665 4,913 28,559 nm 15,748
Price Performance Since Since Since 12/31/09 12/31/07 12/30/05 -28% -89% -93% 13% -87% -92% 0% -82% -83% 105% -80% -82% -19% -77% -95% -37% -76% -71% -18% -71% na -14% -70% 18% -15% -69% -72% 14% -68% -82% -28% -67% -25% 8% -67% -57% -9% -66% -56% -38% -64% -31% -1% -59% -57% -1% -58% -65% -21% -56% -55% 128% -51% -85% -16% -51% -60% -37% -50% -43% 13% -50% -22% -12% -49% -27% -15% -49% 21% -21% -48% -36% -3% -45% na 6% -45% -39% -3% -43% -3% -4% -43% 6% -33% -42% -33% -4% -41% -37% -6% -41% 8% -26% -40% -47% 3% -39% -33% -7% -38% -18% -20% -34% 154% -25% -33% 11% -17% -33% -18% -21% -32% -7% -3% -32% -27% -12% -31% 16% 4% -30% -6% -12% -30% -32% -1% -30% -46% -7% -29% -24% 7% -28% -23% -40% -27% -45% -28% -27% -20% -24% -23% 18% -4% -23% 3% 25% -19% -37%
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P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY na na 10x 8x 7x 7x 9x 8x 5x 4x nm nm nm nm 7x 7x 14x 8x nm nm 4x 4x 5x 5x nm 7x 7x 6x 14x 12x 9x 9x 13x 11x nm nm 10x 8x 6x 6x 9x 8x 11x 9x 11x 9x 7x 7x 12x 15x 10x 8x 14x 13x 7x 6x 8x 7x >99x 14x 10x 9x 24x 23x nm 73x 12x 10x 15x 13x 17x 15x 7x 8x 10x 9x 13x 10x 10x 8x 11x 10x 7x 7x 14x 13x 9x 9x 11x 10x 9x 7x 15x 8x 11x 11x 11x 11x 11x 10x
Notable Shareholders Third Point ESL, Fairholme, Paulson Second Curve Kleinheinz, Paulson Chou, Paulson Citadel, H Partners, MHR Bares, Leucadia Adage, Centaur, Munder Chou, Fairholme, Paulson Chou, Harbinger Apollo, Pabrai, RenTech Axial, MSD, Senator Greenlight, Kleinheinz FPA, H Partners Edinburgh, Markel NWQ, Perkins, Weitz Bares, BRK, Weitz Fairfax, Fairholme Hawkshaw, Southeastern Chou, Fairholme Greenlight, LSV, Perkins Maverick, Southeastern BP, Cap World, Viking BP, Icahn, Southeastern Southeastern, Third Point Glenview, Greenlight Southeastern Akre, Flowers, Royce Scout, Tiger Global, Weitz H Partners, MHR, WL Ross Appaloosa, Fairfax Chou, ESL, Fairholme Lone Pine, Pennant Baupost, Viking Global Breeden, Wanger Brave Warrior, Weitz Cap Re, Maverick Eagle, Greenlight, Weitz Brave Warrior, BRK, Fairfax Fairholme, Pabrai, Paulson Eagle, Greenlight Appaloosa, Greenlight Centaur, FPA, Scout Fairfax, Markel, Pennant Children's, Tiger Global Artisan, Breeden, Davis FPA, MHR, Primecap Sageview, Shumway Breeden, Southeastern Appaloosa, Third Point August 27, 2010 – Page 152 of 175
Company / Ticker Wells Fargo / WFC CF Industries / CF JPMorgan Chase / JPM Symantec / SYMC Reynolds American / RAI Arris Group / ARRS Covidien / COV Franklin Resources / BEN Canadian Natural / CNQ Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Automatic Data / ADP Time Warner / TWX Kraft Foods / KFT Broadridge Financial / BR Coca-Cola / KO Lowe's / LOW Fiserv / FISV Novartis / NVS Life Technologies / LIFE Nalco Holding / NLC MasterCard / MA Tyco International / TYC ViaSat / VSAT Lincare / LNCR Oracle / ORCL Walt Disney / DIS Potash / POT Target / TGT Wal-Mart / WMT Teva Pharma / TEVA Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB Yum! Brands / YUM Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE DaVita / DVA Union Pacific / UNP Ituran Location / ITRN McDonald's / MCD Apple / AAPL Estee Lauder / EL DIRECTV / DTV Discovery Comms / DISCA Innophos / IPHS Dollar Tree / DLTR Ocwen Financial / OCN Jo-Ann Stores / JAS Smurfit-Stone / SSCC Tree.com / TREE Visa / V Philip Morris / PM SuperMedia / SPMD
Recent Price ($) 24.60 90.01 37.14 13.80 56.64 8.57 38.09 98.92 32.20 58.74 39.40 30.31 29.10 20.16 55.30 20.64 51.26 50.75 44.33 23.01 206.37 38.70 34.40 23.76 23.02 33.05 149.67 52.15 50.22 50.28 18.19 42.32 29.02 63.82 74.26 13.65 73.08 249.64 57.39 38.05 37.82 27.60 44.62 9.07 38.03 18.30 7.15 70.10 51.98 11.94
∆ to 52-Week Low High -1% 39% -36% 22% -5% 30% -13% 39% -31% 3% -2% 60% -7% 38% -15% 23% -15% 25% -3% 13% -33% 16% -17% 12% -12% 7% -8% 19% -13% 8% -7% 38% -13% 8% -14% 11% -7% 27% -26% 27% -6% 31% -21% 5% -31% 11% -30% 41% -13% 16% -24% 15% -44% 0% -14% 12% -5% 12% -7% 29% -26% 28% -23% 4% -35% 2% -20% 5% -27% 6% -34% 24% -26% 1% -34% 12% -42% 24% -36% 5% -34% 6% -37% 16% -33% 2% -2% 41% -36% 27% -82% 618% -16% 37% -5% 39% -45% 4% -1% 309%
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Market Value ($mn) 128,742 6,398 147,266 10,893 16,512 1,073 19,104 22,266 35,078 161,796 19,818 34,075 50,752 2,555 127,713 29,371 7,694 116,091 8,127 3,182 27,005 19,261 1,396 2,331 115,704 63,212 44,392 37,684 186,299 47,012 1,118 19,764 14,585 6,548 36,949 320 77,782 228,062 11,296 33,811 10,765 591 5,665 909 1,039 1,830 80 58,890 95,273 185
Enter. Value ($mn) nm 8,398 nm 10,051 19,310 622 19,942 17,973 43,997 154,547 18,186 46,357 77,928 2,466 129,256 32,934 10,795 111,736 10,081 5,951 23,571 21,606 1,648 2,701 111,890 72,888 47,821 52,696 225,337 49,151 1,227 22,469 22,047 9,334 44,997 258 86,743 203,774 11,404 40,520 13,665 714 5,451 nm 984 2,696 91 53,647 108,920 2,458
Price Performance Since Since Since 12/31/09 12/31/07 12/30/05 -9% -19% -22% -1% -18% 490% -11% -15% -6% -23% -14% -21% 7% -14% 19% -25% -14% -10% -20% -14% na -6% -14% 5% -11% -12% 30% -9% -12% -2% -8% -12% -4% 4% -11% -16% 7% -11% 3% -11% -10% na -3% -10% 37% -12% -9% -38% 6% -8% 18% -7% -7% -3% -15% -5% 33% -10% -5% 30% -19% -4% na 8% -2% -13% 8% 0% 29% -4% 1% -15% -6% 2% 89% 2% 2% 40% 38% 4% 460% 8% 4% -5% -6% 6% 7% -11% 8% 17% -9% 10% 19% 21% 11% 81% 37% 11% 51% 9% 13% 26% 16% 18% 84% 6% 23% -14% 17% 24% 117% 18% 26% 247% 19% 32% 71% 14% 65% 169% 23% 66% 175% 20% 85% na 39% 158% 180% -5% 172% 73% 5% 191% 222% -44% na na -22% na na -20% na na 8% na na na na na
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P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 12x 9x 12x 12x 10x 8x 11x 9x 11x 11x 10x 9x 12x 11x 16x 14x 13x 10x 12x 12x 16x 15x 13x 12x 14x 13x 13x 11x 16x 15x 15x 12x 13x 12x 10x 10x 13x 12x 15x 13x 15x 13x 15x 12x 20x 20x 13x 11x 12x 11x 16x 14x 27x 20x 13x 12x 13x 11x 11x 10x 8x 8x 17x 15x 16x 16x 15x 14x 14x 12x 14x 13x 16x 15x 17x 14x 19x 16x 16x 12x 21x 18x 10x 9x 15x 13x 12x 6x 12x 10x 17x 9x nm nm 18x 15x 14x 12x 2x 7x
Notable Shareholders Appaloosa, BRK, Fairfax Appaloosa, H Partners Lone Pine, Paulson Edinburgh, Hawkshaw Wintergreen Sageview, Shamrock Artisan, FPA, Pennant Edinburgh, Wintergreen Wintergreen BRK, Fairfax, West Coast Pershing Sq., West Coast Shumway, Viking BRK, Pershing Square Brave Warrior, Centaur BRK, Eagle, Wintergreen Eagle, Southeastern Brave Warrior, BRK Dodge & Cox, Gruss Glenview, Sageview BRK, Legg, MSD, MS Brave Warrior, Scout Scout, Viking, Weitz Baupost, Times Square FPA, Glenview, Lone Pine Children's, Glenview Markel, Southeastern Cap World, Pabrai, Weitz Pershing Square, Weitz BRK, Eagle, Markel Maverick, Shumway WL Ross, Donald Smith Pershing Sq., Southeastern Gates, Scout, Third Point Gates, Glenview, Pennant Children's, Shumway Baupost, Sageview Clarium, Blue Ridge, Scout Blue Ridge, Greenlight Lone Pine, Viking Southeastern, Tiger Global Blue Ridge, Eagle, Weitz Integrity, WL Ross Akre, Blue Ridge Second Curve, Kleinheinz SouthernSun, WL Ross Lane Fine Second Curve, Weitz Brave Warrior, Children's Markel, Wintergreen Appaloosa, Paulson
August 27, 2010 – Page 153 of 175
Free Cash Flow
(sorted initially by LTM free cash flow yield)
Company / Ticker McClatchy / MNI Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB Sprint Nextel / S Xerox / XRX Arris Group / ARRS Transocean / RIG Smurfit-Stone / SSCC General Electric / GE Broadridge Financial / BR Washington Post / WPO Sears Holdings / SHLD Dell / DELL Apollo Group / APOL Service Corp. / SCI Macy's / M Symantec / SYMC Jo-Ann Stores / JAS H&R Block / HRB Target / TGT Microsoft / MSFT Novartis / NVS Intel / INTC Lincare / LNCR Fiserv / FISV Aon Corp. / AON DaVita / DVA Johnson & Johnson / JNJ BP / BP Nalco Holding / NLC Covidien / COV News Corp. / NWSA Viacom / VIA.B Philip Morris / PM Liberty Interactive / LINTA Time Warner / TWX DIRECTV / DTV Corning / GLW Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC Wal-Mart / WMT Dollar Tree / DLTR Oracle / ORCL Innophos / IPHS Life Technologies / LIFE Tyco International / TYC Baxter International / BAX Redwood Trust / RWT Teva Pharma / TEVA Canadian Natural / CNQ Franklin Resources / BEN
Recent Price ($) 2.87 4.97 18.19 4.19 8.97 8.57 51.00 18.30 15.03 20.16 347.68 61.59 12.07 40.72 7.97 20.97 13.80 38.03 13.47 52.15 24.23 50.75 18.91 23.76 51.26 36.91 63.82 58.74 36.40 23.01 38.09 12.73 31.68 51.98 10.50 30.31 38.05 16.10 13.23 50.22 44.62 23.02 27.60 44.33 38.70 44.57 14.34 50.28 32.20 98.92
∆ to 52-Week Low High -41% 149% -2% 75% -26% 28% -34% 27% -20% 31% -2% 60% -18% 86% -82% 618% -13% 31% -8% 19% -15% 57% -4% 104% -3% 45% -6% 89% -22% 22% -30% 20% -13% 39% -36% 27% 0% 72% -14% 12% -6% 30% -14% 11% -3% 29% -30% 41% -13% 8% -5% 20% -20% 5% -3% 13% -27% 71% -26% 27% -7% 38% -19% 34% -25% 17% -45% 4% -14% 60% -17% 12% -36% 5% -12% 31% -66% 29% -5% 12% -33% 2% -13% 16% -37% 16% -7% 27% -21% 5% -10% 39% -10% 24% -7% 29% -15% 25% -15% 23%
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Market Value ($mn) 243 92 1,118 12,505 12,406 1,073 16,269 1,830 160,689 2,555 3,187 6,815 23,636 6,007 1,967 8,854 10,893 1,039 4,355 37,684 209,676 116,091 105,291 2,331 7,694 9,955 6,548 161,796 113,998 3,182 19,104 33,368 19,266 95,273 6,280 34,075 33,811 25,142 605 186,299 5,665 115,704 591 8,127 19,261 26,045 1,118 47,012 35,078 22,266
LTM FCF Yield 97% 88% 22% 19% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 15% 14% 14% 14% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6%
P/E Last FY 4x 2x 13x nm 16x 12x 5x nm 15x 12x 36x 31x 17x 11x 16x 25x 16x 15x 9x 16x 12x 14x 25x 18x 17x 17x 16x 13x 7x 52x 21x 13x 12x 16x 24x 17x 40x 13x nm 14x 19x 19x 10x 55x nm 12x 26x 23x 32x 26x
This FY 5x 4x 8x nm 10x 10x 7x 17x 14x 13x 13x 24x 10x 8x 14x 11x 11x 12x 9x 13x 10x 10x 9x 13x 13x 11x 15x 12x 6x 15x 12x 12x 11x 14x 12x 13x 16x 7x 5x 13x 15x 12x 10x 13x 15x 11x 9x 11x 13x 16x
P/E (Est.) Next In FY 2 Yrs 4x na 4x 4x 8x 7x nm nm 8x 7x 9x 8x 6x 6x 9x 8x 12x 10x 11x na 11x na 23x 32x 8x 8x 7x 7x 13x 12x 10x 9x 9x 8x 10x 9x 7x 7x 12x 11x 9x 8x 10x 10x 9x 9x 11x 10x 12x 10x 11x 9x 14x 11x 12x 11x 6x 5x 13x 12x 11x 10x 10x 9x 10x 9x 12x 11x 15x 11x 12x 10x 12x 10x 8x 7x 5x 5x 11x 10x 13x 12x 11x 10x 9x 7x 12x 11x 12x 11x 11x 10x 9x na 10x 9x 10x 9x 14x 12x
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Div. Yield 2.3% 1.9% 3.2% 3.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.0% 4.5% 1.9% 2.1% 3.8% 3.3% 3.4% 1.6% 3.7% 9.2% .6% 1.2% 1.9% 4.5% 2.8% 1.2% 2.4% .9% 2.5% 2.6% 7.0% 1.5% .9% .9%
Price/ Tang. Book nm 1.1x 2.8x nm nm 1.8x 1.3x .9x 4.0x 10.2x 3.2x 1.7x 91.3x 7.9x 9.9x 18.2x nm 1.8x 18.7x 2.5x 6.4x 3.4x 2.6x nm nm nm nm 7.4x 1.8x nm 17.8x 10.9x nm nm nm nm nm 1.5x nm 3.8x 4.5x >99x 2.6x nm 14.6x 7.6x 1.1x 13.6x 1.7x 4.1x
Notable Shareholders Chou, Paulson Apollo, Pabrai, RenTech WL Ross, Donald Smith Chou, Harbinger Glenview, Greenlight Sageview, Shamrock FPA, H Partners Lane Fine Edinburgh, Markel Brave Warrior, Centaur Bares, BRK, Weitz Chou, ESL, Fairholme Hawkshaw, Southeastern Scout, Tiger Global, Weitz Southeastern Appaloosa, Third Point Edinburgh, Hawkshaw SouthernSun, WL Ross Artisan, Breeden, Davis Pershing Square, Weitz Eagle, Greenlight, Weitz Dodge & Cox, Gruss Fairfax, Markel, Pennant FPA, Glenview, Lone Pine Brave Warrior, BRK Breeden, Southeastern Gates, Glenview, Pennant BRK, Fairfax, West Coast Chou, Fairholme BRK, Legg, MSD, MS Artisan, FPA, Pennant Baupost, Viking Global Children's, Tiger Global Markel, Wintergreen Southeastern, Third Point Shumway, Viking Southeastern, Tiger Global Cap Re, Maverick Axial, MSD, Senator BRK, Eagle, Markel Akre, Blue Ridge Children's, Glenview Integrity, WL Ross Glenview, Sageview Scout, Viking, Weitz Sageview, Shumway NWQ, Perkins, Weitz Maverick, Shumway Wintergreen Edinburgh, Wintergreen August 27, 2010 – Page 154 of 175
Company / Ticker eBay / EBAY Apple / AAPL Walt Disney / DIS Google / GOOG Estee Lauder / EL Ituran Location / ITRN Lowe's / LOW Coca-Cola / KO Ensco / ESV Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE McDonald's / MCD Yum! Brands / YUM Citigroup / C Kraft Foods / KFT American Capital / ACAS MasterCard / MA Discovery Comms / DISCA Reynolds American / RAI Union Pacific / UNP Hess / HES Xerium Technologies / XRM Visa / V NCR / NCR Potash / POT Chesapeake Energy / CHK CF Industries / CF ViaSat / VSAT Key Energy Services / KEG TravelCenters / TA Live Nation / LYV Pride International / PDE Leap Wireless / LEAP Tree.com / TREE TN Commerce Banc / TNCC Bank of America / BAC Enstar Group / ESGR Republic Airways / RJET Ocwen Financial / OCN GameStop / GME Wells Fargo / WFC JPMorgan Chase / JPM Pfizer / PFE SuperMedia / SPMD Goldman Sachs / GS Bank of NY Mellon / BK U.S. Bancorp / USB Merck / MRK Bally Technologies / BYI Automatic Data / ADP MBIA / MBI
Recent Price ($) 23.37 249.64 33.05 462.02 57.39 13.65 20.64 55.30 41.51 29.02 73.08 42.32 3.75 29.10 5.01 206.37 37.82 56.64 74.26 51.24 10.97 70.10 12.61 149.67 20.38 90.01 34.40 8.46 3.61 8.80 23.04 11.13 7.15 4.37 12.87 70.35 6.69 9.07 18.81 24.60 37.14 15.92 11.94 148.24 24.65 21.74 34.44 33.04 39.40 9.06
∆ to 52-Week Low High -18% 21% -34% 12% -24% 15% -6% 36% -42% 24% -34% 24% -7% 38% -13% 8% -20% 26% -35% 2% -26% 1% -23% 4% -17% 45% -12% 7% -58% 33% -6% 31% -34% 6% -31% 3% -27% 6% -5% 30% -14% 166% -5% 39% -27% 27% -44% 0% -4% 47% -36% 22% -31% 11% -24% 36% -43% 142% -28% 92% -7% 50% -15% 94% -16% 37% -30% 155% -1% 54% -23% 8% -33% 59% -2% 41% -9% 52% -1% 39% -5% 30% -12% 28% -1% 309% -13% 31% -2% 32% -5% 31% -13% 21% -9% 44% -33% 16% -65% 21%
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Market Value ($mn) 30,665 228,062 63,212 147,249 11,296 320 29,371 127,713 5,936 14,585 77,782 19,764 108,651 50,752 1,707 27,005 10,765 16,512 36,949 16,828 164 58,890 2,024 44,392 13,335 6,398 1,396 1,063 62 1,527 4,047 872 80 25 129,136 973 232 909 2,828 128,742 147,266 128,413 185 76,435 29,926 41,679 107,393 1,797 19,818 1,816
LTM FCF Yield 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% -3% -12% -12% -18% -18% -22% na nm nm na nm na nm nm na nm nm nm nm na na na nm
P/E Last FY 13x 27x 19x 23x 24x 16x 17x 19x 8x 20x 18x 19x nm 14x nm 18x 29x 17x 20x 23x nm 25x nm 46x nm 12x 49x nm nm nm 12x nm nm nm nm 7x 6x nm 8x 14x 17x 13x 0x 7x nm 22x 6x 18x 16x 3x
This FY 14x 17x 16x 17x 19x 14x 15x 16x 11x 16x 16x 17x 10x 14x 9x 15x 21x 11x 14x 11x na 18x 9x 27x 7x 12x 20x >99x nm nm 15x nm nm 7x 14x 7x nm 12x 7x 12x 10x 7x 2x 10x 11x 13x 10x 15x 16x nm
P/E (Est.) Next In FY 2 Yrs 13x 12x 14x 12x 14x 12x 15x 13x 16x 14x 13x 12x 12x 11x 15x 14x 10x 8x 16x 14x 15x 14x 15x 13x 8x 7x 13x 11x 8x 6x 13x 11x 18x 15x 11x 10x 12x 11x 9x 8x na na 15x 13x 8x 8x 20x 18x 7x 6x 12x 11x 20x 12x 14x 19x nm na 73x 31x 8x 7x nm 14x nm 6x 7x 5x 8x 6x 6x 6x 7x 6x 6x 6x 7x 7x 9x 7x 8x 7x 7x 7x 7x 7x 8x 7x 9x 8x 10x 8x 9x 9x 13x 12x 15x 14x nm na
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Div. Yield 1.1% 1.0% 11.0% 2.1% 3.2% 3.4% 1.2% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% .3% 6.4% 1.8% .8% .7% .3% 1.5% .4% .3% .8% .5% 4.5% .9% 1.5% .9% 4.4% 3.5% -
Price/ Tang. Book 4.0x 5.4x 14.5x 4.3x 10.4x 2.6x 1.5x 9.5x 1.1x nm 7.3x >99x .9x nm .5x 7.8x nm nm 2.1x 1.3x nm 16.4x 3.5x 6.9x 1.1x 3.8x 2.4x 3.3x .3x nm .9x nm 1.7x .3x 1.2x 1.2x .7x 1.2x 3.9x 2.2x 1.5x nm nm 1.3x 3.6x 2.9x >99x 5.2x 3.6x .7x
Notable Shareholders Centaur, FPA, Scout Blue Ridge, Greenlight Markel, Southeastern Brave Warrior, Weitz Lone Pine, Viking Baupost, Sageview Eagle, Southeastern BRK, Eagle, Wintergreen Eagle, Greenlight Gates, Scout, Third Point Clarium, Blue Ridge, Scout Pershing Sq., Southeastern ESL, Fairholme, Paulson BRK, Pershing Square Kleinheinz, Paulson Brave Warrior, Scout Blue Ridge, Eagle, Weitz Wintergreen Children's, Shumway BP, Cap World, Viking Third Point Brave Warrior, Children's Greenlight, LSV, Perkins Cap World, Pabrai, Weitz BP, Icahn, Southeastern Appaloosa, H Partners Baupost, Times Square H Partners, MHR, WL Ross Bares, Leucadia Lone Pine, Pennant FPA, MHR, Primecap Citadel, H Partners, MHR Second Curve, Weitz Second Curve Chou, Fairholme, Paulson Akre, Flowers, Royce Greenlight, Kleinheinz Second Curve, Kleinheinz Adage, Centaur, Munder Appaloosa, BRK, Fairfax Lone Pine, Paulson Appaloosa, Greenlight Appaloosa, Paulson Fairholme, Pabrai, Paulson Maverick, Southeastern Brave Warrior, BRK, Fairfax Appaloosa, Fairfax Breeden, Wanger Pershing Sq., West Coast Fairfax, Fairholme
August 27, 2010 – Page 155 of 175
P/E Multiples
(sorted by P/E based on estimated EPS for next fiscal year)
Company / Ticker Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL McClatchy / MNI Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC BP / BP Enstar Group / ESGR Transocean / RIG Ocwen Financial / OCN TN Commerce Banc / TNCC GameStop / GME Pfizer / PFE Chesapeake Energy / CHK Apollo Group / APOL Republic Airways / RJET SuperMedia / SPMD H&R Block / HRB Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB American Capital / ACAS NCR / NCR Corning / GLW Goldman Sachs / GS Pride International / PDE JPMorgan Chase / JPM Citigroup / C Dell / DELL Bank of America / BAC Xerox / XRX Wells Fargo / WFC Innophos / IPHS Smurfit-Stone / SSCC Redwood Trust / RWT Arris Group / ARRS Hess / HES Intel / INTC Merck / MRK Symantec / SYMC Microsoft / MSFT Bank of NY Mellon / BK Macy's / M Canadian Natural / CNQ Ensco / ESV Teva Pharma / TEVA U.S. Bancorp / USB Viacom / VIA.B Novartis / NVS News Corp. / NWSA Jo-Ann Stores / JAS Aon Corp. / AON Baxter International / BAX Reynolds American / RAI Covidien / COV
Recent Price ($) 4.97 2.87 13.23 36.40 70.35 51.00 9.07 4.37 18.81 15.92 20.38 40.72 6.69 11.94 13.47 18.19 5.01 12.61 16.10 148.24 23.04 37.14 3.75 12.07 12.87 8.97 24.60 27.60 18.30 14.34 8.57 51.24 18.91 34.44 13.80 24.23 24.65 20.97 32.20 41.51 50.28 21.74 31.68 50.75 12.73 38.03 36.91 44.57 56.64 38.09
Market Value ($mn) 92 243 605 113,998 973 16,269 909 25 2,828 128,413 13,335 6,007 232 185 4,355 1,118 1,707 2,024 25,142 76,435 4,047 147,266 108,651 23,636 129,136 12,406 128,742 591 1,830 1,118 1,073 16,828 105,291 107,393 10,893 209,676 29,926 8,854 35,078 5,936 47,012 41,679 19,266 116,091 33,368 1,039 9,955 26,045 16,512 19,104
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P/E Last FY 2x 4x nm 7x 7x 5x nm nm 8x 13x nm 11x 6x 0x 9x 13x nm nm 13x 7x 12x 17x nm 17x nm 16x 14x 10x nm 26x 12x 23x 25x 6x 16x 12x nm 25x 32x 8x 23x 22x 12x 14x 13x 15x 17x 12x 17x 21x
This FY 4x 5x 5x 6x 7x 7x 12x 7x 7x 7x 7x 8x nm 2x 9x 8x 9x 9x 7x 10x 15x 10x 10x 10x 14x 10x 12x 10x 17x 9x 10x 11x 9x 10x 11x 10x 11x 11x 13x 11x 11x 13x 11x 10x 12x 12x 11x 11x 11x 12x
P/E (Est.) Next In FY 2 Yrs 4x 4x 4x na 5x 5x 6x 5x 6x 6x 6x 6x 6x 6x 7x 5x 7x 7x 7x 7x 7x 6x 7x 7x 7x 6x 7x 7x 7x 7x 8x 7x 8x 6x 8x 8x 8x 7x 8x 7x 8x 7x 8x 7x 8x 7x 8x 8x 8x 6x 8x 7x 9x 7x 9x 7x 9x 8x 9x na 9x 8x 9x 8x 9x 9x 9x 9x 9x 8x 9x 8x 9x 8x 10x 9x 10x 9x 10x 8x 10x 9x 10x 8x 10x 9x 10x 10x 10x 9x 10x 9x 11x 9x 11x 10x 11x 10x 11x 10x
EPS (Est.) This Next FY FY 1.22 1.29 0.58 0.69 2.56 2.64 6.16 6.57 10.39 11.29 7.44 8.05 0.74 1.42 0.63 0.67 2.63 2.86 2.21 2.27 2.94 2.83 5.28 5.60 (0.40) 0.90 6.14 1.60 1.58 1.80 2.28 2.42 0.58 0.66 1.41 1.66 2.17 2.07 14.78 18.76 1.56 2.91 3.64 4.59 0.39 0.46 1.26 1.46 0.95 1.55 0.92 1.07 2.10 2.88 2.78 3.15 1.10 2.08 1.53 1.61 0.86 0.96 4.64 5.73 2.04 2.10 3.36 3.80 1.31 1.52 2.36 2.64 2.29 2.64 1.92 2.18 2.54 3.33 3.63 4.27 4.57 5.12 1.65 2.20 2.85 3.15 5.01 5.04 1.10 1.25 3.23 3.65 3.28 3.51 3.93 4.21 4.98 5.26 3.28 3.48
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FY End Date 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 1/31/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 8/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 4/30/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 1/31/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 3/31/11 6/30/11 12/31/10 1/31/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/10 6/30/11 1/31/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 9/30/10
Div. Yield 9.2% 4.5% 1.5% 4.5% 2.3% 1.2% .9% .5% .3% 1.9% .8% 2.5% 7.0% .8% 3.3% 4.4% 2.1% 1.5% 1.0% .9% 3.4% 1.5% .9% 1.9% 3.8% 1.2% 1.6% 2.6% 6.4% -
Notable Shareholders Apollo, Pabrai, RenTech Chou, Paulson Axial, MSD, Senator Chou, Fairholme Akre, Flowers, Royce FPA, H Partners Second Curve, Kleinheinz Second Curve Adage, Centaur, Munder Appaloosa, Greenlight BP, Icahn, Southeastern Scout, Tiger Global, Weitz Greenlight, Kleinheinz Appaloosa, Paulson Artisan, Breeden, Davis WL Ross, Donald Smith Kleinheinz, Paulson Greenlight, LSV, Perkins Cap Re, Maverick Fairholme, Pabrai, Paulson FPA, MHR, Primecap Lone Pine, Paulson ESL, Fairholme, Paulson Hawkshaw, Southeastern Chou, Fairholme, Paulson Glenview, Greenlight Appaloosa, BRK, Fairfax Integrity, WL Ross Lane Fine NWQ, Perkins, Weitz Sageview, Shamrock BP, Cap World, Viking Fairfax, Markel, Pennant Appaloosa, Fairfax Edinburgh, Hawkshaw Eagle, Greenlight, Weitz Maverick, Southeastern Appaloosa, Third Point Wintergreen Eagle, Greenlight Maverick, Shumway Brave Warrior, BRK, Fairfax Children's, Tiger Global Dodge & Cox, Gruss Baupost, Viking Global SouthernSun, WL Ross Breeden, Southeastern Sageview, Shumway Wintergreen Artisan, FPA, Pennant August 27, 2010 – Page 156 of 175
Company / Ticker Oracle / ORCL Washington Post / WPO Broadridge Financial / BR Lincare / LNCR Wal-Mart / WMT Fiserv / FISV CF Industries / CF Life Technologies / LIFE General Electric / GE Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Target / TGT Time Warner / TWX DIRECTV / DTV Union Pacific / UNP Lowe's / LOW Philip Morris / PM Tyco International / TYC Bally Technologies / BYI Kraft Foods / KFT Service Corp. / SCI MasterCard / MA Ituran Location / ITRN eBay / EBAY Dollar Tree / DLTR Nalco Holding / NLC Franklin Resources / BEN Key Energy Services / KEG Walt Disney / DIS DaVita / DVA Apple / AAPL Google / GOOG Coca-Cola / KO Visa / V McDonald's / MCD Automatic Data / ADP Liberty Interactive / LINTA Yum! Brands / YUM Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Estee Lauder / EL Discovery Comms / DISCA Potash / POT ViaSat / VSAT Sears Holdings / SHLD Live Nation / LYV Leap Wireless / LEAP MBIA / MBI Sprint Nextel / S TravelCenters / TA Tree.com / TREE Xerium Technologies / XRM
Recent Price ($) 23.02 347.68 20.16 23.76 50.22 51.26 90.01 44.33 15.03 58.74 52.15 30.31 38.05 74.26 20.64 51.98 38.70 33.04 29.10 7.97 206.37 13.65 23.37 44.62 23.01 98.92 8.46 33.05 63.82 249.64 462.02 55.30 70.10 73.08 39.40 10.50 42.32 29.02 57.39 37.82 149.67 34.40 61.59 8.80 11.13 9.06 4.19 3.61 7.15 10.97
Market Value ($mn) 115,704 3,187 2,555 2,331 186,299 7,694 6,398 8,127 160,689 161,796 37,684 34,075 33,811 36,949 29,371 95,273 19,261 1,797 50,752 1,967 27,005 320 30,665 5,665 3,182 22,266 1,063 63,212 6,548 228,062 147,249 127,713 58,890 77,782 19,818 6,280 19,764 14,585 11,296 10,765 44,392 1,396 6,815 1,527 872 1,816 12,505 62 80 164
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
P/E Last FY 19x 36x 12x 18x 14x 17x 12x 55x 15x 13x 16x 17x 40x 20x 17x 16x nm 18x 14x 16x 18x 16x 13x 19x 52x 26x nm 19x 16x 27x 23x 19x 25x 18x 16x 24x 19x 20x 24x 29x 46x 49x 31x nm nm 3x nm nm nm nm
This FY 12x 13x 13x 13x 13x 13x 12x 13x 14x 12x 13x 13x 16x 14x 15x 14x 15x 15x 14x 14x 15x 14x 14x 15x 15x 16x >99x 16x 15x 17x 17x 16x 18x 16x 16x 12x 17x 16x 19x 21x 27x 20x 24x nm nm nm nm nm nm na
P/E (Est.) Next In FY 2 Yrs 11x 10x 11x na 11x na 11x 10x 11x 10x 12x 10x 12x 11x 12x 11x 12x 10x 12x 11x 12x 11x 12x 10x 12x 10x 12x 11x 12x 11x 12x 11x 12x 11x 13x 12x 13x 11x 13x 12x 13x 11x 13x 12x 13x 12x 13x 12x 13x 12x 14x 12x 14x 19x 14x 12x 14x 11x 14x 12x 15x 13x 15x 14x 15x 13x 15x 14x 15x 14x 15x 11x 15x 13x 16x 14x 16x 14x 18x 15x 20x 18x 20x 12x 23x 32x 73x 31x nm 14x nm na nm nm nm na nm 6x na na
EPS (Est.) This Next FY FY 1.90 2.10 27.13 31.25 1.61 1.80 1.88 2.12 4.01 4.39 4.02 4.42 7.46 7.76 3.43 3.81 1.11 1.29 4.71 5.03 3.90 4.39 2.26 2.55 2.39 3.13 5.19 6.01 1.41 1.67 3.78 4.18 2.61 3.10 2.26 2.64 2.04 2.32 0.57 0.63 13.60 16.19 0.97 1.07 1.62 1.78 3.00 3.38 1.50 1.72 6.33 7.30 0.03 0.61 2.08 2.38 4.37 4.54 14.43 17.47 27.28 31.26 3.47 3.74 3.90 4.72 4.51 4.89 2.42 2.63 0.90 0.70 2.48 2.78 1.81 1.87 3.05 3.52 1.77 2.08 5.49 7.61 1.74 1.68 2.56 2.64 (0.65) 0.12 (2.22) (0.77) (1.41) (0.88) (1.02) (0.65) (3.35) (2.30) (1.13) (0.15) na na
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FY End Date 5/31/11 12/31/10 6/30/11 12/31/10 1/31/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 1/31/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 1/31/11 12/31/10 9/30/10 6/30/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 1/31/11 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 9/30/10 12/31/10 6/30/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 6/30/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 3/31/11 1/31/11 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10 12/31/10
Div. Yield .9% 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 2.4% .4% 3.2% 3.7% 1.9% 2.8% 1.8% 2.1% 4.5% 4.0% 2.0% .3% 11.0% .6% .9% 1.1% 3.2% .7% 3.0% 3.5% 2.0% 1.2% 1.0% .3% -
Notable Shareholders Children's, Glenview Bares, BRK, Weitz Brave Warrior, Centaur FPA, Glenview, Lone Pine BRK, Eagle, Markel Brave Warrior, BRK Appaloosa, H Partners Glenview, Sageview Edinburgh, Markel BRK, Fairfax, West Coast Pershing Square, Weitz Shumway, Viking Southeastern, Tiger Global Children's, Shumway Eagle, Southeastern Markel, Wintergreen Scout, Viking, Weitz Breeden, Wanger BRK, Pershing Square Southeastern Brave Warrior, Scout Baupost, Sageview Centaur, FPA, Scout Akre, Blue Ridge BRK, Legg, MSD, MS Edinburgh, Wintergreen H Partners, MHR, WL Ross Markel, Southeastern Gates, Glenview, Pennant Blue Ridge, Greenlight Brave Warrior, Weitz BRK, Eagle, Wintergreen Brave Warrior, Children's Clarium, Blue Ridge, Scout Pershing Sq., West Coast Southeastern, Third Point Pershing Sq., Southeastern Gates, Scout, Third Point Lone Pine, Viking Blue Ridge, Eagle, Weitz Cap World, Pabrai, Weitz Baupost, Times Square Chou, ESL, Fairholme Lone Pine, Pennant Citadel, H Partners, MHR Fairfax, Fairholme Chou, Harbinger Bares, Leucadia Second Curve, Weitz Third Point
August 27, 2010 – Page 157 of 175
Percentile Rank within Industry
Company / Ticker Enstar Group / ESGR SuperMedia / SPMD Bank of NY Mellon / BK Redwood Trust / RWT Visa / V Ocwen Financial / OCN Wells Fargo / WFC MasterCard / MA TN Commerce Banc / TNCC Goldman Sachs / GS JPMorgan Chase / JPM Microsoft / MSFT Ensco / ESV Transocean / RIG Google / GOOG Potash / POT Merck / MRK Oracle / ORCL Franklin Resources / BEN U.S. Bancorp / USB McDonald's / MCD Intel / INTC Canadian Natural / CNQ Apple / AAPL Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Union Pacific / UNP Coca-Cola / KO Discovery Comms / DISCA Citigroup / C Reynolds American / RAI Novartis / NVS Fiserv / FISV Apollo Group / APOL Smurfit-Stone / SSCC Viacom / VIA.B Teva Pharma / TEVA Ituran Location / ITRN Corning / GLW Lincare / LNCR Time Warner / TWX Pfizer / PFE American Capital / ACAS Baxter International / BAX eBay / EBAY Walt Disney / DIS CF Industries / CF McClatchy / MNI Philip Morris / PM Service Corp. / SCI Pride International / PDE
(sorted by LTM EBIT margin rank)
Industry Insurance (miscellaneous) Business Services Investment Services Real Estate Operations Retail Financial Services Retail Financial Services Regional Banks Retail Financial Services Regional Banks Investment Services Investment Services Software & Programming Oil Well Services Oil Well Services Computer Services Non-Metallic Mining Major Drugs Software & Programming Investment Services Money Center Banks Restaurants Semiconductors Oil & Gas Operations Computer Hardware Major Drugs Railroads Beverages (non-alcoholic) Broadcasting & Cable Money Center Banks Tobacco Major Drugs Computer Services Schools Paper & Paper Products Broadcasting & Cable Biotechnology & Drugs Security Solutions Comms Equipment Healthcare Facilities Broadcasting & Cable Major Drugs Investment Services Medical Equipment Retail (online) Broadcasting & Cable Chemical Manufacturing Printing & Publishing Tobacco Personal Services Oil Well Services
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Percentile Rank within Industry Rev. Growth EPS Growth LTM EBIT 5-Year LTM LTM Est. Margin 81 94 74 na 100 12 8 na na 100 65 14 10 32 98 6 9 89 11 93 80 76 58 80 93 28 12 8 15 90 79 77 86 30 90 68 65 87 77 90 91 61 94 62 88 37 89 na 20 88 72 27 97 23 88 56 65 58 39 88 78 19 28 22 88 87 24 31 na 87 92 77 68 71 87 39 19 26 na 87 37 91 68 14 86 74 75 49 50 86 39 84 74 46 86 41 49 71 15 85 39 61 51 39 85 26 80 96 55 84 48 73 25 na 84 89 85 65 78 84 44 56 48 18 83 35 47 47 57 83 49 57 53 26 83 90 65 30 84 83 38 25 78 89 82 44 47 52 15 82 59 76 56 8 81 30 50 57 49 81 73 83 33 71 80 16 38 na na 80 60 45 74 41 80 80 79 92 60 79 56 55 34 na 79 49 81 78 43 78 39 59 49 72 77 9 73 88 55 77 26 85 28 4 76 70 20 87 5 76 44 60 31 29 76 79 68 69 27 76 36 65 55 30 76 57 14 21 11 75 66 24 98 na 74 56 68 51 29 74 32 58 69 32 74 21 16 19 70 73 SUBSCRIBE TODAY! www.manualofideas.com
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 7x 6x 2x 7x 11x 9x 9x 9x 18x 15x 12x 6x 12x 9x 15x 13x 7x 7x 10x 8x 10x 8x 10x 9x 11x 10x 7x 6x 17x 15x 27x 20x 10x 9x 12x 11x 16x 14x 13x 10x 16x 15x 9x 9x 13x 10x 17x 14x 12x 12x 14x 12x 16x 15x 21x 18x 10x 8x 11x 11x 10x 10x 13x 12x 8x 7x 17x 9x 11x 10x 11x 10x 14x 13x 7x 8x 13x 11x 13x 12x 7x 7x 9x 8x 11x 11x 14x 13x 16x 14x 12x 12x 5x 4x 14x 12x 14x 13x 15x 8x
Notable Shareholders Akre, Flowers, Royce Appaloosa, Paulson Maverick, Southeastern NWQ, Perkins, Weitz Brave Warrior, Children's Second Curve, Kleinheinz Appaloosa, BRK, Fairfax Brave Warrior, Scout Second Curve Fairholme, Pabrai, Paulson Lone Pine, Paulson Eagle, Greenlight, Weitz Eagle, Greenlight FPA, H Partners Brave Warrior, Weitz Cap World, Pabrai, Weitz Appaloosa, Fairfax Children's, Glenview Edinburgh, Wintergreen Brave Warrior, BRK, Fairfax Clarium, Blue Ridge, Scout Fairfax, Markel, Pennant Wintergreen Blue Ridge, Greenlight BRK, Fairfax, West Coast Children's, Shumway BRK, Eagle, Wintergreen Blue Ridge, Eagle, Weitz ESL, Fairholme, Paulson Wintergreen Dodge & Cox, Gruss Brave Warrior, BRK Scout, Tiger Global, Weitz Lane Fine Children's, Tiger Global Maverick, Shumway Baupost, Sageview Cap Re, Maverick FPA, Glenview, Lone Pine Shumway, Viking Appaloosa, Greenlight Kleinheinz, Paulson Sageview, Shumway Centaur, FPA, Scout Markel, Southeastern Appaloosa, H Partners Chou, Paulson Markel, Wintergreen Southeastern FPA, MHR, Primecap August 27, 2010 – Page 158 of 175
Company / Ticker Broadridge Financial / BR DaVita / DVA Life Technologies / LIFE Yum! Brands / YUM Chesapeake Energy / CHK Innophos / IPHS Arris Group / ARRS Bank of America / BAC DIRECTV / DTV Nalco Holding / NLC Aon Corp. / AON Kraft Foods / KFT Liberty Interactive / LINTA News Corp. / NWSA Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC Washington Post / WPO Dollar Tree / DLTR Estee Lauder / EL Hess / HES Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL Republic Airways / RJET General Electric / GE Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE H&R Block / HRB GameStop / GME Jo-Ann Stores / JAS Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB Macy's / M Target / TGT Lowe's / LOW Wal-Mart / WMT ViaSat / VSAT Dell / DELL Xerox / XRX Leap Wireless / LEAP NCR / NCR Sears Holdings / SHLD BP / BP Live Nation / LYV TravelCenters / TA Covidien / COV Sprint Nextel / S Symantec / SYMC Tyco International / TYC Xerium Technologies / XRM Key Energy Services / KEG Bally Technologies / BYI Automatic Data / ADP Tree.com / TREE MBIA / MBI
Industry Business Services Healthcare Facilities Biotechnology & Drugs Restaurants Oil & Gas Operations Chemical Manufacturing Comms Equipment Money Center Banks Broadcasting & Cable Chemical Manufacturing Insurance (miscellaneous) Food Processing Broadcasting & Cable Broadcasting & Cable Misc. Transportation Printing & Publishing Retail (dep't & discount) Household Products Oil & Gas - Integrated Airline Airline Conglomerates Beverages (non-alcoholic) Personal Services Retail (technology) Retail (specialty) Tires Retail (dep't & discount) Retail (dep't & discount) Retail (home improvement) Retail (dep't & discount) Comms Equipment Computer Hardware Office Equipment Comms Services Electronic Instruments Retail (dep't & discount) Oil & Gas - Integrated Casinos & Gaming Retail (specialty) Medical Equipment Comms Services Software & Programming Conglomerates Textiles - Non-Apparel Oil Well Services Casinos & Gaming Business Services Retail Financial Services Property & Casualty
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Percentile Rank within Industry Rev. Growth EPS Growth LTM EBIT 5-Year LTM LTM Est. Margin 43 65 34 32 73 80 65 50 43 73 82 86 98 45 72 38 55 47 49 72 80 9 88 23 71 40 16 20 28 71 74 52 93 43 71 64 27 11 19 70 67 72 55 86 70 40 56 89 77 70 18 60 22 32 69 41 71 59 20 69 51 68 92 na 69 47 66 93 60 67 99 63 86 15 66 48 67 100 na 65 60 73 59 60 65 40 64 87 71 65 62 56 87 68 63 45 49 37 2 62 77 91 14 5 62 35 30 30 44 60 37 47 94 23 60 40 40 49 41 59 89 60 45 41 58 30 62 92 68 58 45 78 92 20 57 53 56 86 27 57 48 58 58 54 57 43 56 46 62 57 50 59 51 39 56 68 74 24 28 55 29 67 33 18 52 23 73 36 0 51 80 73 50 93 48 14 40 14 na 47 73 48 na na 47 41 67 15 11 44 53 76 80 na 41 62 16 na na 40 35 54 46 na 39 53 41 37 2 39 74 54 86 30 38 6 40 94 na 30 17 45 na na 28 30 12 na na 25 59 34 48 74 23 51 54 37 40 22 na 43 79 na 19 50 1 3 na 1
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P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 13x 11x 15x 14x 13x 12x 17x 15x 7x 7x 10x 9x 10x 9x 14x 8x 16x 12x 15x 13x 11x 11x 14x 13x 12x 15x 12x 10x 5x 5x 13x 11x 15x 13x 19x 16x 11x 9x 4x 4x nm 7x 14x 12x 16x 16x 9x 7x 7x 7x 12x 10x 8x 8x 11x 10x 13x 12x 15x 12x 13x 11x 20x 20x 10x 8x 10x 8x nm nm 9x 8x 24x 23x 6x 6x nm 73x nm nm 12x 11x nm nm 11x 9x 15x 12x na na >99x 14x 15x 13x 16x 15x nm nm nm nm
Notable Shareholders Brave Warrior, Centaur Gates, Glenview, Pennant Glenview, Sageview Pershing Sq., Southeastern BP, Icahn, Southeastern Integrity, WL Ross Sageview, Shamrock Chou, Fairholme, Paulson Southeastern, Tiger Global BRK, Legg, MSD, MS Breeden, Southeastern BRK, Pershing Square Southeastern, Third Point Baupost, Viking Global Axial, MSD, Senator Bares, BRK, Weitz Akre, Blue Ridge Lone Pine, Viking BP, Cap World, Viking Apollo, Pabrai, RenTech Greenlight, Kleinheinz Edinburgh, Markel Gates, Scout, Third Point Artisan, Breeden, Davis Adage, Centaur, Munder SouthernSun, WL Ross WL Ross, Donald Smith Appaloosa, Third Point Pershing Square, Weitz Eagle, Southeastern BRK, Eagle, Markel Baupost, Times Square Hawkshaw, Southeastern Glenview, Greenlight Citadel, H Partners, MHR Greenlight, LSV, Perkins Chou, ESL, Fairholme Chou, Fairholme Lone Pine, Pennant Bares, Leucadia Artisan, FPA, Pennant Chou, Harbinger Edinburgh, Hawkshaw Scout, Viking, Weitz Third Point H Partners, MHR, WL Ross Breeden, Wanger Pershing Sq., West Coast Second Curve, Weitz Fairfax, Fairholme
August 27, 2010 – Page 159 of 175
Latest Earnings Surprises
Company / Ticker MBIA / MBI TravelCenters / TA Republic Airways / RJET Enstar Group / ESGR Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC Citigroup / C JPMorgan Chase / JPM Jo-Ann Stores / JAS News Corp. / NWSA Potash / POT NCR / NCR Bank of America / BAC SuperMedia / SPMD Macy's / M Nalco Holding / NLC Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL Pfizer / PFE Intel / INTC U.S. Bancorp / USB Innophos / IPHS BP / BP Union Pacific / UNP Walt Disney / DIS Service Corp. / SCI Kraft Foods / KFT Wells Fargo / WFC Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Xerox / XRX Discovery Comms / DISCA TN Commerce Banc / TNCC Dollar Tree / DLTR Canadian Natural / CNQ Apple / AAPL Tyco International / TYC Apollo Group / APOL Time Warner / TWX Oracle / ORCL General Electric / GE Microsoft / MSFT Corning / GLW Chesapeake Energy / CHK Aon Corp. / AON Franklin Resources / BEN Dell / DELL Covidien / COV Novartis / NVS Yum! Brands / YUM eBay / EBAY MasterCard / MA Life Technologies / LIFE
Recent Price ($) 9.06 3.61 6.69 70.35 13.23 3.75 37.14 38.03 12.73 149.67 12.61 12.87 11.94 20.97 23.01 4.97 15.92 18.91 21.74 27.60 36.40 74.26 33.05 7.97 29.10 24.60 29.02 8.97 37.82 4.37 44.62 32.20 249.64 38.70 40.72 30.31 23.02 15.03 24.23 16.10 20.38 36.91 98.92 12.07 38.09 50.75 42.32 23.37 206.37 44.33
(sorted by percentage difference between actual and expected quarterly EPS)
∆ to 52-Week Low High -65% 21% -43% 142% -33% 59% -23% 8% -66% 29% -17% 45% -5% 30% -36% 27% -19% 34% -44% 0% -27% 27% -1% 54% -1% 309% -30% 20% -26% 27% -2% 75% -12% 28% -3% 29% -5% 31% -37% 16% -27% 71% -27% 6% -24% 15% -22% 22% -12% 7% -1% 39% -35% 2% -20% 31% -34% 6% -30% 155% -33% 2% -15% 25% -34% 12% -21% 5% -6% 89% -17% 12% -13% 16% -13% 31% -6% 30% -12% 31% -4% 47% -5% 20% -15% 23% -3% 45% -7% 38% -14% 11% -23% 4% -18% 21% -6% 31% -7% 27%
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Market Value ($mn) 1,816 62 232 973 605 108,651 147,266 1,039 33,368 44,392 2,024 129,136 185 8,854 3,182 92 128,413 105,291 41,679 591 113,998 36,949 63,212 1,967 50,752 128,742 14,585 12,406 10,765 25 5,665 35,078 228,062 19,261 6,007 34,075 115,704 160,689 209,676 25,142 13,335 9,955 22,266 23,636 19,104 116,091 19,764 30,665 27,005 8,127
Latest EPS Surprise EPS EPS % (Act.) (Est.) Diff. 8/9/10 6.32 (0.62) nm 8/9/10 0.07 (0.82) nm 8/3/10 0.08 (0.01) nm 8/6/10 0.89 0.38 >99% 8/4/10 1.88 0.65 >99% 7/16/10 0.09 0.05 80% 7/15/10 1.09 0.67 63% 5/26/10 0.66 0.44 50% 8/4/10 0.30 0.20 50% na 1.55 1.19 30% 7/22/10 0.35 0.27 30% 7/16/10 0.27 0.22 23% na 2.15 1.76 22% 8/11/10 0.35 0.29 21% 7/27/10 0.41 0.34 21% 8/3/10 0.42 0.35 20% 8/3/10 0.62 0.52 19% 7/13/10 0.51 0.43 19% 7/21/10 0.45 0.38 18% 8/2/10 0.79 0.67 18% 7/28/10 1.66 1.43 16% 7/22/10 1.40 1.21 16% 8/10/10 0.67 0.58 16% 7/28/10 0.15 0.13 15% 8/5/10 0.60 0.52 15% 7/21/10 0.55 0.48 15% 7/28/10 0.79 0.69 14% 7/22/10 0.24 0.21 14% 8/3/10 0.49 0.43 14% 7/27/10 0.26 0.23 13% 8/19/10 0.61 0.54 13% na 0.63 0.56 13% 7/20/10 3.51 3.12 13% na 0.72 0.64 13% 6/30/10 1.74 1.55 12% 8/4/10 0.50 0.45 11% 6/24/10 0.60 0.54 11% 7/16/10 0.30 0.27 11% 7/22/10 0.51 0.46 11% 7/28/10 0.58 0.53 9% 8/3/10 0.75 0.69 9% 7/30/10 0.81 0.75 8% 7/29/10 1.58 1.48 7% 8/19/10 0.32 0.30 7% na 0.85 0.80 6% 7/15/10 1.20 1.13 6% 7/13/10 0.58 0.55 5% 7/21/10 0.40 0.38 5% 8/3/10 3.49 3.33 5% 7/29/10 0.91 0.87 5% Date
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Div. Yield .5% 1.2% .3% .3% 1.0% .6% 4.5% 3.3% .9% 2.5% 9.2% 1.8% 1.1% 2.0% 4.0% .8% 1.2% 1.9% .9% 2.8% .9% 3.2% 2.1% 1.2% 1.5% 1.6% .9% 3.8% 2.0% .3% -
Price/ Tang. Book .7x .3x .7x 1.2x nm .9x 1.5x 1.8x 10.9x 6.9x 3.5x 1.2x nm 18.2x nm 1.1x nm 2.6x 2.9x 2.6x 1.8x 2.1x 14.5x 9.9x nm 2.2x nm nm nm .3x 4.5x 1.7x 5.4x 14.6x 7.9x nm >99x 4.0x 6.4x 1.5x 1.1x nm 4.1x 91.3x 17.8x 3.4x >99x 4.0x 7.8x nm
Notable Shareholders Fairfax, Fairholme Bares, Leucadia Greenlight, Kleinheinz Akre, Flowers, Royce Axial, MSD, Senator ESL, Fairholme, Paulson Lone Pine, Paulson SouthernSun, WL Ross Baupost, Viking Global Cap World, Pabrai, Weitz Greenlight, LSV, Perkins Chou, Fairholme, Paulson Appaloosa, Paulson Appaloosa, Third Point BRK, Legg, MSD, MS Apollo, Pabrai, RenTech Appaloosa, Greenlight Fairfax, Markel, Pennant Brave Warrior, BRK, Fairfax Integrity, WL Ross Chou, Fairholme Children's, Shumway Markel, Southeastern Southeastern BRK, Pershing Square Appaloosa, BRK, Fairfax Gates, Scout, Third Point Glenview, Greenlight Blue Ridge, Eagle, Weitz Second Curve Akre, Blue Ridge Wintergreen Blue Ridge, Greenlight Scout, Viking, Weitz Scout, Tiger Global, Weitz Shumway, Viking Children's, Glenview Edinburgh, Markel Eagle, Greenlight, Weitz Cap Re, Maverick BP, Icahn, Southeastern Breeden, Southeastern Edinburgh, Wintergreen Hawkshaw, Southeastern Artisan, FPA, Pennant Dodge & Cox, Gruss Pershing Sq., Southeastern Centaur, FPA, Scout Brave Warrior, Scout Glenview, Sageview August 27, 2010 – Page 160 of 175
Company / Ticker Visa / V Fiserv / FISV Teva Pharma / TEVA Merck / MRK H&R Block / HRB Philip Morris / PM Viacom / VIA.B Coca-Cola / KO Lincare / LNCR Bank of NY Mellon / BK Hess / HES Reynolds American / RAI Ensco / ESV Baxter International / BAX Wal-Mart / WMT McDonald's / MCD Key Energy Services / KEG Tree.com / TREE Sprint Nextel / S Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Ituran Location / ITRN McClatchy / MNI Broadridge Financial / BR DaVita / DVA DIRECTV / DTV Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB Target / TGT Symantec / SYMC Automatic Data / ADP Leap Wireless / LEAP Sears Holdings / SHLD Live Nation / LYV Transocean / RIG Google / GOOG Lowe's / LOW Bally Technologies / BYI Pride International / PDE Estee Lauder / EL GameStop / GME Arris Group / ARRS Liberty Interactive / LINTA Redwood Trust / RWT CF Industries / CF Ocwen Financial / OCN American Capital / ACAS ViaSat / VSAT Goldman Sachs / GS Smurfit-Stone / SSCC Washington Post / WPO Xerium Technologies / XRM
Recent Price ($) 70.10 51.26 50.28 34.44 13.47 51.98 31.68 55.30 23.76 24.65 51.24 56.64 41.51 44.57 50.22 73.08 8.46 7.15 4.19 58.74 13.65 2.87 20.16 63.82 38.05 18.19 52.15 13.80 39.40 11.13 61.59 8.80 51.00 462.02 20.64 33.04 23.04 57.39 18.81 8.57 10.50 14.34 90.01 9.07 5.01 34.40 148.24 18.30 347.68 10.97
∆ to 52-Week Low High -5% 39% -13% 8% -7% 29% -13% 21% 0% 72% -45% 4% -25% 17% -13% 8% -30% 41% -2% 32% -5% 30% -31% 3% -20% 26% -10% 39% -5% 12% -26% 1% -24% 36% -16% 37% -34% 27% -3% 13% -34% 24% -41% 149% -8% 19% -20% 5% -36% 5% -26% 28% -14% 12% -13% 39% -33% 16% -15% 94% -4% 104% -28% 92% -18% 86% -6% 36% -7% 38% -9% 44% -7% 50% -42% 24% -9% 52% -2% 60% -14% 60% -10% 24% -36% 22% -2% 41% -58% 33% -31% 11% -13% 31% -82% 618% -15% 57% -14% 166%
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Market Value ($mn) 58,890 7,694 47,012 107,393 4,355 95,273 19,266 127,713 2,331 29,926 16,828 16,512 5,936 26,045 186,299 77,782 1,063 80 12,505 161,796 320 243 2,555 6,548 33,811 1,118 37,684 10,893 19,818 872 6,815 1,527 16,269 147,249 29,371 1,797 4,047 11,296 2,828 1,073 6,280 1,118 6,398 909 1,707 1,396 76,435 1,830 3,187 164
Latest EPS Surprise EPS EPS (Act.) (Est.) 7/28/10 0.97 0.93 7/27/10 1.00 0.96 7/27/10 1.08 1.04 7/30/10 0.86 0.83 6/24/10 2.11 2.04 7/22/10 1.00 0.97 8/5/10 0.68 0.66 7/21/10 1.06 1.03 7/19/10 0.47 0.46 7/20/10 0.55 0.54 7/28/10 1.15 1.13 7/22/10 1.32 1.30 7/21/10 0.82 0.81 7/22/10 0.93 0.92 8/17/10 0.97 0.96 7/23/10 1.13 1.12 7/28/10 (0.02) (0.04) 7/29/10 (0.07) (0.46) 7/28/10 (0.25) (0.20) 7/20/10 1.21 1.21 na 0.23 0.23 7/29/10 0.10 0.10 8/12/10 0.84 0.84 8/2/10 1.06 1.06 8/5/10 0.60 0.60 8/5/10 0.41 0.41 8/18/10 0.92 0.92 7/28/10 0.35 0.35 7/29/10 0.42 0.42 8/3/10 (0.24) (0.23) 8/19/10 (0.36) (0.18) 8/5/10 (0.20) (0.02) na 1.67 1.68 7/15/10 6.45 6.52 8/16/10 0.58 0.59 8/12/10 0.55 0.56 7/29/10 0.32 0.33 8/12/10 0.29 0.30 8/19/10 0.26 0.27 7/28/10 0.24 0.25 8/9/10 0.10 0.11 8/4/10 0.35 0.39 8/5/10 2.73 3.16 8/3/10 0.15 0.23 8/3/10 0.09 0.14 8/9/10 0.23 0.37 7/20/10 0.78 2.08 na (0.03) 0.03 8/6/10 na na na na na Date
% Diff. 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% nm nm nm 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% nm nm nm -1% -1% -2% -2% -3% -3% -4% -4% -9% -10% -14% -35% -36% -38% -63% <-99% nm nm
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Div. Yield .7% 1.5% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5% 1.9% 3.2% 3.4% 1.5% .8% 6.4% 3.4% 2.6% 2.4% 3.0% 3.7% 11.0% 3.0% 2.3% 1.9% 3.5% 2.1% 1.0% 7.0% .4% .9% 2.6% -
Price/ Tang. Book 16.4x nm 13.6x >99x 18.7x nm nm 9.5x nm 3.6x 1.3x nm 1.1x 7.6x 3.8x 7.3x 3.3x 1.7x nm 7.4x 2.6x nm 10.2x nm nm 2.8x 2.5x nm 3.6x nm 1.7x nm 1.3x 4.3x 1.5x 5.2x .9x 10.4x 3.9x 1.8x nm 1.1x 3.8x 1.2x .5x 2.4x 1.3x .9x 3.2x nm
Notable Shareholders Brave Warrior, Children's Brave Warrior, BRK Maverick, Shumway Appaloosa, Fairfax Artisan, Breeden, Davis Markel, Wintergreen Children's, Tiger Global BRK, Eagle, Wintergreen FPA, Glenview, Lone Pine Maverick, Southeastern BP, Cap World, Viking Wintergreen Eagle, Greenlight Sageview, Shumway BRK, Eagle, Markel Clarium, Blue Ridge, Scout H Partners, MHR, WL Ross Second Curve, Weitz Chou, Harbinger BRK, Fairfax, West Coast Baupost, Sageview Chou, Paulson Brave Warrior, Centaur Gates, Glenview, Pennant Southeastern, Tiger Global WL Ross, Donald Smith Pershing Square, Weitz Edinburgh, Hawkshaw Pershing Sq., West Coast Citadel, H Partners, MHR Chou, ESL, Fairholme Lone Pine, Pennant FPA, H Partners Brave Warrior, Weitz Eagle, Southeastern Breeden, Wanger FPA, MHR, Primecap Lone Pine, Viking Adage, Centaur, Munder Sageview, Shamrock Southeastern, Third Point NWQ, Perkins, Weitz Appaloosa, H Partners Second Curve, Kleinheinz Kleinheinz, Paulson Baupost, Times Square Fairholme, Pabrai, Paulson Lane Fine Bares, BRK, Weitz Third Point
August 27, 2010 – Page 161 of 175
Favorite Stock Screens For Value Investors Market Value
Enterprise Value
Relevant Financial Data Point
"Magic Formula," based on Trailing Financials 1 Synta Pharma SNTA $2.90
$118mn
$70mn
2
* VirnetX
VHC
$6.38
$303mn
3
InfoSpace
INSP
$6.90
$249mn
Company
Ticker
Price
Notable Shareholders
Industry
Trailing EBIT / EV 132%
Caxton (Kovner)
$176mn
60%
Dimensional (DFA)
$25mn
58%
DFA, RenTech, Royce
Major Drugs Software & Programming Computer Services
EPS Yield FY0
"Magic Formula," based on This Year's EPS Estimates 1
* VirnetX
VHC
$6.38
$303mn
$176mn
24%
2
ITT Educational
ESI
$52.22
$1,754mn
$1,624mn
22%
Blum, Wanger
Software & Programming Schools
3
Bridgepoint Edu.
BPI
$13.07
$715mn
$509mn
15%
Jennison, Parnassus
Schools
$1,754mn
$1,624mn
EPS Yield FY1 24%
Blum, Wanger
Schools
"Magic Formula," based on Next Year's EPS Estimates 1 ITT Educational ESI $52.22
DFA
2
Bridgepoint Edu.
BPI
$13.07
$715mn
$509mn
19%
Jennison, Parnassus
Schools
3
Jiangbo Pharma
JGBO
$10.49
$127mn
$54mn
29%
Pope
Biotechnology & Drugs
Contrarian: Biggest YTD Losers (deleveraged & profitable) 1 Broadwind Energy BWEN $1.73 $185mn
$178mn
∆ Price YTD -79%
Tontine (Gendell)
Construction Machinery
2
China Nepstar
NPD
$2.76
$291mn
$123mn
-62%
GS, MS, Kleinheinz
Retail (drugs)
3
Fuqi International
FUQI
$7.03
$194mn
$69mn
-61%
Lonestar, Sunrise
Jewelry & Silverware
Value with Catalyst: Cheap Repurchasers of Stock 1 United Overseas Bank UOVEY $27.50
$20,708mn
n/m
∆ Shares Q-Q -20%
Citibank, DBS, Raffles
Regional Banks
2
* Brasil Telecom SA
BTM
$18.90
$3,716mn
$5,045mn
-12%
Brandes, RenTech
Comms Services
3
* LaBranche
LAB
$4.31
$181mn
n/m
-12%
Kleinheinz, Passport
Investment Services
Profitable Dividend Payors with Decent Balance Sheets 1 Am. Capital Agency AGNC $26.98
$908mn
$834mn
Div. Yield 21%
Vertex One, Calpers
Real Estate Operations
2
Mesabi Trust
MSB
$25.37
$333mn
n/m
13%
Beddow, ValueWorks
Misc. Financial Services
3
Fifth Street Finance
FSC
$10.06
$549mn
n/m
12%
Greenlight
Misc. Financial Services
Deep Value: Lots of Revenue, Low Enterprise Value 1 Tech Data TECD $37.97
$1,926mn
$1,405mn
EV/Revenue .06x
Tradewinds, Acadian
Computer Hardware
2
Ingram Micro
IM
$15.76
$2,469mn
$2,059mn
.06x
Artisan, GS, Aronson
Computer Hardware
3
World Fuel Services
INT
$25.19
$1,499mn
$1,203mn
.08x
Argyll, Frontier
Oil & Gas Operations
$25.15
$1,069mn
$89mn
EV/GP .10x
Fairholme, Times Sq.
Health Insurance
Deep Value: Neglected Gross Profiteers 1 * WellCare WCG 2
Winn-Dixie Stores
WINN
$8.24
$454mn
$302mn
.15x
Advisory, Sterling
Retail (grocery)
3
Humana
HUM
$48.51
$8,210mn
$1,242mn
.19x
Fairholme
Health Insurance
Activist Targets: Potential Sales, Liquidations or Recaps 1 * Qiao Xing Mobile QXM $2.40 $126mn
-$183mn
NCAV / MV * 311%
Shah, Weiss, Pope
Comms Services
2
* Qiao Xing Universal
$1.47
$135mn
-$246mn
209%
Shah
Comms Services
3
* Fuqi International
FUQI
$7.03
$194mn
$69mn
145%
BNY Mellon, Lonestar
Jewelry & Silverware
* NCAV = net current asset value = current asset minus total liabilities
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August 27, 2010 – Page 162 of 175
“Magic Formula,” based on Trailing Operating Income Companies with high returns on capital employed, trading at high trailing EBIT-to-enterprise value yield Move To 52-Week Low High
▼
▼ EBIT/ Capital Employed
Tax Rate
Price/ Tangible Book
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
EV/ Sales
Trailing EBIT/ EV
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
1 2 3 4 5
Synta Pharma * VirnetX InfoSpace Terra Nova Royalty Bridgepoint Edu.
SNTA VHC INSP TTT BPI
2.90 6.38 6.90 7.31 13.07
-12% -71% -2% -16% -2%
140% 25% 76% 92% 110%
118 303 249 221 715
70 176 25 137 509
.5x .9x .1x .3x .9x
132% 60% 58% 43% 36%
infinite infinite infinite infinite infinite
n/m 32% 9% 62% 42%
3.3x 4.4x 1.1x 1.1x 3.5x
6 7 8 9 10
SuperGen ITT Educational EarthLink ePlus Unisys
SUPG ESI ELNK PLUS UIS
1.99 52.22 8.59 18.35 22.71
-14% -4% -9% -20% -25%
91% 134% 9% 5% 78%
120 1,754 929 148 968
17 1,624 604 116 1,308
.4x 1.1x .9x .2x .3x
44% 35% 32% 29% 32%
894% 1674% 1325% infinite 801%
n/m 39% n/m 39% 13%
1.1x >9.9x 1.4x .9x n/m
11 12 13 14 15
InterDigital Jiangbo Pharma Apollo Group Impax Labs Metropolitan Health
IDCC JGBO APOL IPXL MDF
26.61 10.49 40.72 16.49 3.56
-31% -31% -6% -56% -48%
13% 38% 89% 36% 26%
1,172 127 6,007 1,046 144
687 54 5,278 718 112
1.9x .5x 1.1x 1.0x .3x
32% 95% 25% 47% 29%
448% 249% 802% 266% 337%
28% 28% 42% 36% 38%
8.4x 1.4x 7.9x 2.8x 3.0x
16 17 18 19 20
Amedisys H&R Block Tessera Technologies Career Education United Online
AMED HRB TSRA CECO UNTD
23.58 13.47 15.92 17.54 4.87
-3% 0% -5% -1% -2%
173% 72% 102% 105% 91%
680 4,355 800 1,425 425
768 3,665 362 1,115 607
.5x .9x 1.4x .6x .6x
32% 21% 27% 29% 20%
281% infinite 296% 265% infinite
39% 38% 44% 34% 39%
n/m >9.9x 1.6x 4.5x n/m
21 22 23 24 25
USA Mobility Oshkosh Ambassadors Group Amerigroup Immunomedics
USMO OSK EPAX AGP IMMU
14.19 26.59 11.25 37.75 3.14
-31% -1% -10% -45% -9%
8% 68% 54% 4% 128%
313 2,407 213 1,926 236
184 3,424 106 1,536 211
.7x .4x 1.3x .3x 3.4x
32% 38% 19% 19% 18%
232% 196% infinite infinite infinite
38% 33% 35% 37% n/m
1.9x n/m 2.5x 2.4x 6.0x
26 27 28 29 30
* DragonWave Corinthian Colleges Foster Wheeler ViroPharma Medicis Pharma
DRWI COCO FWLT VPHM MRX
6.06 4.49 23.19 12.84 27.06
-27% -2% -12% -43% -34%
133% 352% 54% 12% 4%
223 396 2,957 1,000 1,628
107 468 2,167 736 1,254
.5x .3x .5x 2.0x 1.9x
39% 51% 19% 22% 17%
154% 135% 334% 236% infinite
1% 39% 22% 43% 38%
1.5x 5.8x 4.0x 5.9x 3.6x
31 32 33 34 35
* Vonage Sohu.com Almost Family * Forest Labs Genoptix
VG SOHU AFAM FRX GXDX
2.05 47.74 25.59 27.60 17.28
-79% -16% -8% -12% -10%
36% 51% 72% 20% 126%
434 1,806 237 7,881 304
518 1,207 208 4,591 164
.6x 2.2x .6x 1.1x .8x
17% 17% 24% 22% 31%
infinite 1217% 166% 180% 124%
n/m 16% 41% 32% 46%
n/m 3.0x 4.5x 2.0x 1.5x
36 37 38 39 40
AmSurg * MedQuist McGraw-Hill * Argan * Aeropostale
AMSG MEDQ MHP AGX ARO
17.11 7.80 28.18 7.50 22.68
-2% -26% -16% -1% -16%
38% 28% 31% 117% 42%
529 293 8,710 102 2,121
801 271 8,764 40 1,808
1.2x .8x 1.5x .2x .8x
28% 17% 16% 19% 22%
130% 442% 5873% 217% 159%
17% 6% 36% 33% 40%
n/m 6.5x n/m 1.5x 4.7x
41 42 43 44 45
Continucare * Providence Service * Kirkland's * Lihua International * KBR
CNU PRSC KIRK LIWA KBR
3.40 13.87 12.15 8.68 23.02
-24% -31% -7% -47% -25%
54% 34% 109% 46% 7%
204 180 241 253 3,597
172 315 175 168 2,463
.6x .4x .4x .7x .2x
20% 20% 31% 24% 23%
163% 159% 106% 120% 121%
39% 39% 31% 29% 31%
4.0x n/m 2.4x 2.0x 2.2x
Company website
SEC
Y!
Price Charts
* New additions are highlighted. Screening criteria: ► Market value > $100 million ► ADRs and banks excluded MV = market value. EV = enterprise value. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 163 of 175
“Magic Formula,” based on This Year’s EPS Estimates Companies with high returns on capital employed, trading at high earnings yields (based on this FY EPS estimates) Move To 52-Week Low High
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
▼
▼
EV/ Sales
This FY EPS Yield
EBIT/ Capital Employed
Tax Rate
Price to Tangible Book
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
1 2 3 4 5
* VirnetX ITT Educational Bridgepoint Edu. Impax Labs Jiangbo Pharma
VHC ESI BPI IPXL JGBO
6.38 52.22 13.07 16.49 10.49
-71% -4% -2% -56% -31%
25% 134% 110% 36% 38%
303 1,754 715 1,046 127
176 1,624 509 718 54
.9x 1.1x .9x 1.0x .5x
24% 22% 15% 19% 20%
infinite 1674% infinite 266% 249%
32% 39% 42% 36% 28%
4.4x >9.9x 3.5x 2.8x 1.4x
6 7 8 9 10
Career Education Metropolitan Health Corinthian Colleges Penwest Pharma Apollo Group
CECO MDF COCO PPCO APOL
17.54 3.56 4.49 5.05 40.72
-1% -48% -2% -74% -6%
105% 26% 352% 1% 89%
1,425 144 396 161 6,007
1,115 112 468 148 5,278
.6x .3x .3x 4.2x 1.1x
17% 15% 37% 17% 13%
265% 337% 135% 158% 802%
34% 38% 39% n/m 42%
4.5x 3.0x 5.8x 5.9x 7.9x
11 12 13 14 15
GT Solar ePlus USA Mobility H&R Block Forest Labs
SOLR PLUS USMO HRB FRX
7.64 18.35 14.19 13.47 27.60
-41% -20% -31% 0% -12%
13% 5% 8% 72% 20%
1,146 148 313 4,355 7,881
869 116 184 3,665 4,591
1.4x .2x .7x .9x 1.1x
12% 12% 13% 12% 14%
infinite infinite 232% infinite 180%
38% 39% 38% 38% 32%
7.5x .9x 1.9x >9.9x 2.0x
16 17 18 19 20
InterDigital Immunomedics Lihua International PMC-Sierra Almost Family
IDCC IMMU LIWA PMCS AFAM
26.61 3.14 8.68 7.31 25.59
-31% -9% -47% -3% -8%
13% 128% 46% 38% 72%
1,172 236 253 1,682 237
687 211 168 1,489 208
1.9x 3.4x .7x 2.5x .6x
12% 11% 15% 11% 13%
448% infinite 120% infinite 166%
28% n/m 29% 5% 41%
8.4x 6.0x 2.0x 3.8x 4.5x
21 22 23 24 25
Lincoln Educational * Kulicke and Soffa America's Car-Mart * DeVry * Veeco Instruments
LINC KLIC CRMT DV VECO
11.19 6.13 21.78 37.98 32.63
-3% -34% -10% -4% -39%
152% 56% 25% 96% 67%
292 432 246 2,698 1,334
301 366 284 2,374 1,022
.5x .6x .8x 1.2x 1.5x
22% 32% 12% 12% 13%
90% 84% 210% 205% 131%
41% n/m 36% 32% 10%
2.1x 2.2x 1.4x 5.7x 3.4x
26 27 28 29 30
Endo Pharma EarthLink * Kirkland's Dell * Aeropostale
ENDP ELNK KIRK DELL ARO
29.13 8.59 12.15 12.07 22.68
-34% -9% -7% -3% -16%
1% 9% 109% 45% 42%
3,362 929 241 23,636 2,121
2,701 604 175 16,448 1,808
1.8x .9x .4x .3x .8x
12% 11% 14% 10% 12%
237% 1325% 106% infinite 159%
26% n/m 31% 27% 40%
4.8x 1.4x 2.4x >9.9x 4.7x
31 32 33 34 35
Western Digital * Teradyne GameStop Gentiva Health Gilead Sciences
WDC TER GME GTIV GILD
24.66 9.49 18.81 20.69 32.64
-5% -20% -9% -9% -3%
92% 41% 52% 49% 52%
5,655 1,721 2,828 617 27,373
3,321 1,303 2,987 658 27,059
.3x 1.0x .3x .6x 3.4x
16% 26% 14% 13% 11%
80% 69% 87% 95% 185%
9% 7% 35% 39% 26%
1.3x 2.2x 3.9x >9.9x 5.4x
36 37 38 39 40
* SciClone Pharma * Lam Research Hewlett-Packard SanDisk Microsoft
SCLN LRCX HPQ SNDK MSFT
2.46 38.12 39.85 41.50 24.23
-15% -24% -1% -60% -6%
117% 15% 37% 22% 30%
118 4,824 93,030 9,673 209,676
79 4,015 98,353 8,208 178,827
1.1x 1.9x .8x 1.8x 2.9x
16% 14% 11% 10% 10%
76% 84% 143% 273% 2834%
5% 19% 20% 18% 25%
1.9x 3.2x >9.9x 2.1x 6.4x
41 42 43 44 45
* Integrated Silicon GTx Gulf Resources * China Yida * VSE
ISSI GTXI GFRE CNYD VSEC
7.60 3.02 9.07 10.54 27.11
-57% -37% -49% -24% 0%
83% 350% 65% 61% 99%
199 110 314 206 141
114 71 259 179 134
.5x 1.1x 1.9x 3.2x .1x
21% 10% 15% 16% 17%
61% infinite 67% 64% 59%
3% n/m 27% 27% 38%
1.3x 3.3x 1.9x 2.0x 1.7x
Company website
SEC
Y!
Price Charts
* New additions are highlighted. Screening criteria: ► Market value > $100 million ► ADRs and banks excluded ► Enterprise value to market value < 1.5 MV = market value. EV = enterprise value. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 164 of 175
“Magic Formula,” based on Next Year’s EPS Estimates Companies with high returns on capital employed, trading at high earnings yields (based on next FY EPS estimates) Move To 52-Week Low High
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
▼
▼
EV/ Sales
Next FY EPS Yield
EBIT/ Capital Employed
Tax Rate
Price to Tangible Book
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
1 2 3 4 5
ITT Educational Bridgepoint Edu. Jiangbo Pharma Career Education Corinthian Colleges
ESI BPI JGBO CECO COCO
52.22 13.07 10.49 17.54 4.49
-4% -2% -31% -1% -2%
134% 110% 38% 105% 352%
1,754 715 127 1,425 396
1,624 509 54 1,115 468
1.1x .9x .5x .6x .3x
24% 19% 29% 20% 43%
1674% infinite 249% 265% 135%
39% 42% 28% 34% 39%
>9.9x 3.5x 1.4x 4.5x 5.8x
6 7 8 9 10
Penwest Pharma Apollo Group H&R Block Lihua International Metropolitan Health
PPCO APOL HRB LIWA MDF
5.05 40.72 13.47 8.68 3.56
-74% -6% 0% -47% -48%
1% 89% 72% 46% 26%
161 6,007 4,355 253 144
148 5,278 3,665 168 112
4.2x 1.1x .9x .7x .3x
26% 14% 13% 21% 13%
158% 802% infinite 120% 337%
n/m 42% 38% 29% 38%
5.9x 7.9x >9.9x 2.0x 3.0x
11 12 13 14 15
Forest Labs America's Car-Mart * DeVry * Kulicke and Soffa Lincoln Educational
FRX CRMT DV KLIC LINC
27.60 21.78 37.98 6.13 11.19
-12% -10% -4% -34% -3%
20% 25% 96% 56% 152%
7,881 246 2,698 432 292
4,591 284 2,374 366 301
1.1x .8x 1.2x .6x .5x
15% 14% 14% 30% 24%
180% 210% 205% 84% 90%
32% 36% 32% n/m 41%
2.0x 1.4x 5.7x 2.2x 2.1x
16 17 18 19 20
PMC-Sierra Dell * Veeco Instruments Endo Pharma Actuate
PMCS DELL VECO ENDP ACTU
7.31 12.07 32.63 29.13 4.05
-3% -3% -39% -34% -4%
38% 45% 67% 1% 53%
1,682 23,636 1,334 3,362 180
1,489 16,448 1,022 2,701 156
2.5x .3x 1.5x 1.8x 1.3x
12% 12% 14% 13% 12%
infinite infinite 131% 237% infinite
5% 27% 10% 26% 7%
3.8x >9.9x 3.4x 4.8x >9.9x
21 22 23 24 25
Kirkland's * Aeropostale Western Digital SciClone Pharma * Teradyne
KIRK ARO WDC SCLN TER
12.15 22.68 24.66 2.46 9.49
-7% -16% -5% -15% -20%
109% 42% 92% 117% 41%
241 2,121 5,655 118 1,721
175 1,808 3,321 79 1,303
.4x .8x .3x 1.1x 1.0x
15% 13% 19% 19% 22%
106% 159% 80% 76% 69%
31% 40% 9% 5% 7%
2.4x 4.7x 1.3x 1.9x 2.2x
26 27 28 29 30
Primoris Services GameStop GT Solar Hewlett-Packard Gilead Sciences
PRIM GME SOLR HPQ GILD
5.87 18.81 7.64 39.85 32.64
0% -9% -41% -1% -3%
52% 52% 13% 37% 52%
264 2,828 1,146 93,030 27,373
249 2,987 869 98,353 27,059
.4x .3x 1.4x .8x 3.4x
14% 15% 11% 12% 12%
96% 87% infinite 143% 185%
37% 35% 38% 20% 26%
3.7x 3.9x 7.5x >9.9x 5.4x
31 32 33 34 35
Gentiva Health * Integrated Silicon China Yida Shengkai Innovations Almost Family
GTIV ISSI CNYD VALV AFAM
20.69 7.60 10.54 7.21 25.59
-9% -57% -24% -51% -8%
49% 83% 61% 46% 72%
617 199 206 166 237
658 114 179 147 208
.6x .5x 3.2x 2.9x .6x
13% 22% 19% 13% 12%
95% 61% 64% 86% 166%
39% 3% 27% 24% 41%
>9.9x 1.3x 2.0x 2.7x 4.5x
36 37 38 39 40
Microsoft Gulf Resources * VSE Nephros * Lam Research
MSFT GFRE VSEC NEP LRCX
24.23 9.07 27.11 5.50 38.12
-6% -49% 0% -24% -24%
30% 65% 99% 111% 15%
209,676 314 141 142 4,824
178,827 259 134 116 4,015
2.9x 1.9x .1x 2.4x 1.9x
11% 16% 19% 27% 13%
2834% 67% 59% 54% 84%
25% 27% 38% 31% 19%
6.4x 1.9x 1.7x 1.9x 3.2x
41 42 43 44 45
CSG Systems * USA Mobility QKL Stores * China Valves * Blue Coat Systems
CSGS USMO QKLS CVVT BCSI
17.71 14.19 4.32 10.48 17.50
-18% -31% -16% -42% -7%
35% 8% 103% 42% 107%
603 313 128 384 746
534 184 69 377 562
1.0x .7x .2x 2.9x 1.1x
13% 11% 12% 14% 10%
81% 232% 106% 72% infinite
24% 38% n/m 21% n/m
9.7x 1.9x 1.6x 3.6x 5.8x
Company website
SEC
Y!
Price Charts
* New additions are highlighted. Screening criteria: ► Market value > $100 million ► ADRs and banks excluded ► Enterprise value to market value < 1.5 MV = market value. EV = enterprise value. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 165 of 175
Contrarian: Biggest YTD Losers (deleveraged & profitable) Non-financial companies with no net debt, positive analyst estimates for next year's EPS, and large YTD price drop ▼ MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
Price Change Since December 31, 2003 2008 2009
Price to Tangible Book
Next FY P/E
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
1 2 3 4 5
Broadwind Energy China Nepstar Fuqi International SmartHeat * A-Power Energy
BWEN NPD FUQI HEAT APWR
1.73 2.76 7.03 5.77 7.62
185 291 194 189 346
178 123 69 153 257
n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
-62% -45% 12% -4% 77%
-79% -62% -61% -60% -58%
1.2x 1.3x .7x 1.9x 1.4x
13x 20x 5x 7x 6x
6 7 8 9 10
* Alphatec Cumberland Pharma China Sky One * Jinpan International KongZhong
ATEC CPIX CSKI JST KONG
2.24 6.02 10.11 10.85 5.81
196 122 170 178 205
215 64 105 166 77
n/m n/m 743% 229% n/m
-5% n/m -37% 49% 73%
-58% -56% -56% -54% -53%
3.3x 1.9x 1.4x 1.5x 2.4x
16x 11x 4x 6x 12x
11 12 13 14 15
Sykes Enterprises Telestone Tech Genoptix AirMedia Santarus
SYKE TSTC GXDX AMCN SNTS
12.10 9.63 17.28 3.72 2.32
574 102 304 244 136
401 100 164 168 47
41% n/m n/m n/m n/m
-37% 583% -49% -23% 48%
-52% -51% -51% -50% -50%
1.5x 1.6x 1.5x 1.1x 2.7x
11x 4x 13x 11x 23x
16 17 18 19 20
AgFeed Industries * Charming Shoppes Neutral Tandem NVIDIA China Fire
FEED CHRS TNDM NVDA CFSG
2.53 3.42 12.09 9.97 7.26
127 396 400 5,705 200
108 383 213 3,956 175
n/m -38% n/m 29% n/m
57% 40% -25% 24% 7%
-49% -47% -47% -47% -46%
1.2x 1.5x 1.6x 2.5x 1.8x
8x 18x 11x 15x 5x
21 22 23 24 25
Tiens Biotech * Heidrick & Struggles * ITT Educational * Agilysys * SurModics
TBV HSII ESI AGYS SRDX
1.61 16.95 52.22 4.96 12.45
115 297 1,754 114 217
109 204 1,624 65 195
-87% -22% 11% -56% -48%
-18% -21% -45% 16% -51%
-46% -46% -46% -46% -45%
.7x 1.8x 11.4x 1.1x 1.6x
7x 12x 4x 22x 20x
26 27 28 29 30
* CDC Software Value Line Orion Marine Resources Connection Vanda Pharma
CDCS VALU ORN RECN VNDA
5.39 14.05 11.82 12.01 6.47
153 140 318 558 181
142 100 302 417 (26)
n/m -72% n/m -12% n/m
n/m -59% 22% -27% 1194%
-44% -44% -44% -43% -42%
8.5x 6.8x 1.6x 3.3x 9.2x
4x 12x 10x 20x 34x
31 32 33 34 35
Energy Recovery Universal Travel RINO International * drugstore.com * Aviat Networks
ERII UTA RINO DSCM AVNW
3.96 5.92 16.18 1.81 4.05
208 118 463 192 242
156 67 390 175 120
n/m n/m -77% -67% -6%
-48% 124% 362% 46% -22%
-42% -42% -41% -41% -41%
2.1x 1.4x 1.8x 4.4x .9x
50x 4x 8x 60x 135x
36 37 38 39 40
* Syntroleum * Sterling Construct. * NutriSystem Nephros * H&R Block
SYNM STRL NTRI NEP HRB
1.56 11.23 18.42 5.50 13.47
121 182 495 142 4,355
96 114 407 116 3,665
-64% n/m 971% 424% -51%
189% -39% 26% 227% -41%
-41% -41% -41% -41% -40%
3.6x 1.5x 4.2x 1.9x 18.7x
9x 11x 14x 4x 7x
41 42 43 44 45
Comtech Telecomm. * VSE * RTI Biologics Myriad Genetics Duoyuan Global Water
CMTL VSEC RTIX MYGN DGW
20.96 27.11 2.32 15.97 21.93
593 141 127 1,502 540
225 134 124 1,099 329
9% 309% -79% 161% n/m
-54% -31% -16% -49% n/m
-40% -40% -40% -39% -39%
1.2x 1.7x .9x 2.7x 1.9x
11x 5x 12x 14x 13x
Company website
SEC
Y!
Stock Price Charts
* New additions are highlighted. Screening criteria: ► Positive net cash ► Positive next FY EPS estimate ► Market value > $100 million MV = market value. EV = enterprise value. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 166 of 175
Value with Catalyst: Cheap Repurchasers of Stock Companies that may be creating value by reducing their shares outstanding at relatively cheap prices ▼ MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
Q-Q Change in Shares
Next FY P/E
Price to Tangible Book
Net Cash as % of MV
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
1 2 3 4 5
United Overseas Bank * Brasil Telecom SA * LaBranche * Qiao Xing Universal Dillard's
UOVEY BTM LAB XING DDS
27.50 18.90 4.31 1.47 21.60
20,708 3,716 181 135 1,443
n/m 5,045 n/m (246) 2,187
-19.9% -12.5% -12.0% -11.2% -6.4%
10x 5x 14x 12x
1.8x .7x .7x .3x .7x
n/m -36% n/m 282% -52%
6 7 8 9 10
* IAC/InterActiveCorp * Resolute Energy * National West. Life * Kaiser Aluminum Hanover Insurance
IACI REN NWLI KALU THG
23.75 10.95 134.51 36.90 43.70
2,484 582 488 709 1,963
1,113 691 n/m 582 n/m
-6.1% -6.1% -5.5% -5.5% -5.5%
20x 19x 14x 10x
1.7x 1.5x .4x .8x .9x
55% -19% n/m 18% n/m
11 12 13 14 15
* WellPoint * PartnerRe * Axis Capital * Gymboree * RenaissanceRe
WLP PRE AXS GYMB RNR
49.89 73.60 30.81 39.83 55.99
19,943 5,564 3,697 1,177 3,072
n/m n/m n/m 1,045 n/m
-5.4% -5.3% -5.0% -4.9% -4.9%
8x 8x 7x 9x 7x
8.3x .9x .8x 3.1x 1.0x
n/m n/m n/m 11% n/m
16 17 18 19 20
* Platinum Underwriter * Travelers * Validus * Assurant * Primerica
PTP TRV VR AIZ PRI
39.71 50.09 24.73 36.36 21.03
1,632 23,542 2,758 3,874 1,529
n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
-4.8% -4.7% -4.4% -4.2% -4.2%
7x 9x 7x 10x
.8x 1.1x .8x .9x 1.2x
n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
21 22 23 24 25
* Thor Industries * Arch Capital * Flagstone Re * Biogen Idec * Tech Data
THO ACGL FSR BIIB TECD
24.73 78.11 10.21 55.38 37.97
1,273 3,880 797 13,397 1,926
1,129 n/m n/m 13,507 1,405
-4.1% -3.9% -3.7% -3.7% -3.7%
10x 9x 11x 9x
2.8x 1.0x .7x 5.9x 1.0x
11% n/m n/m -1% 27%
26 27 28 29 30
Career Education * Montpelier Re National Bank Greece * The Gap Navigators Group
CECO MRH NBG GPS NAVG
17.54 15.64 2.63 17.32 42.04
1,425 1,095 7,983 11,268 665
1,115 n/m n/m 8,787 n/m
-3.6% -3.3% -3.3% -3.3% -3.2%
5x 6x 6x 9x 12x
4.5x .7x 1.5x 2.4x .8x
22% n/m n/m 22% n/m
31 32 33 34 35
* Tredegar * Am. Physicians Cap. * Magellan Health * BMC Software * Seagate Technology
TG ACAP MGLN BMC STX
16.78 41.21 42.94 37.67 10.99
534 385 1,433 6,729 5,357
482 n/m 1,130 5,657 5,344
-3.2% -3.2% -3.1% -2.9% -2.8%
13x 14x 12x 12x -
1.8x 1.6x 3.0x n/m 2.0x
10% n/m 21% 16% 0%
36 37 38 39 40
* ESSA Bancorp O2Micro * ITT Educational * FPIC Insurance * Transatlantic
ESSA OIIM ESI FPIC TRH
10.92 6.55 52.22 29.51 47.39
150 229 1,754 280 3,021
n/m 130 1,624 n/m n/m
-2.8% -2.8% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7%
46x 9x 4x 11x 7x
.9x 1.3x 11.4x 1.1x .7x
n/m 43% 7% n/m n/m
41 42 43 44 45
* Fresh Del Monte * NASDAQ OMX * Aeropostale * America's Car-Mart * Smith & Wesson
FDP NDAQ ARO CRMT SWHC
21.46 18.98 22.57 22.10 3.66
1,284 3,955 2,121 246 227
1,474 n/m 1,808 284 267
-2.7% -2.7% -2.7% -2.6% -2.5%
8x 9x 8x 7x 9x
1.0x n/m 4.7x 1.4x 3.8x
-15% n/m 15% -16% -18%
Company website
SEC
Y!
* New additions are highlighted. Screening criteria: ► MV < 2 * BV ► Price <= 12 * next FY EPS ► Debt/equity < 0.4 ► MV > $100 million ► Q-Q change in shares < 0 MV = market value. EV = enterprise value. BV = book value. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 167 of 175
Profitable Dividend Payors with Decent Balance Sheets Dividend-paying companies with no net debt and EPS estimates in excess of 75% of the indicated annual dividend ▼ Move To 52-Week Low High
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
Dividend Yield Last 12 Annual Months Indicated
Est. P/E This Next FY FY
Price to Tangible Book
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
1 2 3 4 5
Am. Capital Agency Mesabi Trust Fifth Street Finance BGC Partners Himax Tech
AGNC MSB FSC BGCP HIMX
26.98 25.37 10.06 5.13 2.32
-12% -66% -7% -27% -7%
16% 8% 36% 36% 54%
908 333 549 466 412
834 n/m n/m n/m 251
21% 4% 11% 7% 26%
21% 13% 12% 11% 11%
5x 10x 10x 9x 13x
6x 10x 8x 7x 9x
1.1x >9.9x 1.0x 2.2x 1.1x
6 7 8 9 10
TICC Capital Cherokee Telecom Argentina NGP Capital * Gladstone Investment
TICC CHKE TEO NGPC GAIN
9.20 17.44 20.91 7.94 5.75
-48% -10% -33% -21% -25%
2% 40% 5% 18% 20%
248 154 4,117 172 127
n/m 146 3,899 n/m n/m
7% 11% 10% 8% 6%
10% 9% 9% 9% 8%
10x 12x 9x 14x 11x
9x 10x 8x 9x 10x
1.0x >9.9x 3.2x .7x .6x
11 12 13 14 15
Porter Bancorp BBVA Banco Frances EarthLink American Software Chunghwa Telecom
PBIB BFR ELNK AMSWA CHT
9.91 8.57 8.59 4.87 20.22
-2% -49% -9% -7% -17%
74% 4% 9% 44% 8%
105 1,532 929 124 19,609
n/m n/m 604 86 16,913
8% 8% 7% 7% 6%
8% 8% 7% 7% 6%
31x 9x 9x 18x 15x
11x 10x 12x 14x 14x
.8x 2.1x 1.4x 2.5x 1.6x
16 17 18 19 20
Nat'l Australia Bank Banco Santander First Bancorp Tower Bancorp Life Partners
NABZY STD FNLC TOBC LPHI
21.22 11.71 12.87 18.78 16.90
-13% -26% -5% -1% -7%
39% 53% 55% 54% 45%
44,130 96,360 126 134 252
n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
6% 5% 6% 6% 4%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
11x 9x 12x 13x 8x
9x 7x 11x 8x 7x
1.6x 2.1x 1.3x .9x 3.9x
21 22 23 24 25
Value Line Lenovo Westpac Banking Nokia American Ecology
VALU LNVGY WBK NOK ECOL
14.05 11.78 101.16 9.09 13.42
-15% -29% -15% -12% -1%
142% 36% 32% 76% 48%
140 5,748 60,221 34,042 246
n/m 3,376 n/m 28,334 213
26% 1% 5% 6% 5%
6% 6% 5% 5% 5%
12x 19x 12x 13x 22x
12x 16x 11x 11x 18x
6.8x n/m 2.7x 5.5x 2.7x
26 27 28 29 30
Lorillard * CNB Financial Electro Rent United Bankshares Maxim Integrated
LO CCNE ELRC UBSI MXIM
74.74 12.44 11.90 23.84 16.71
-6% -15% -19% -31% -5%
10% 53% 30% 34% 28%
11,340 152 285 1,039 4,985
11,334 n/m 252 n/m 4,459
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
11x 12x 16x 15x 12x
10x 11x 13x 14x 10x
n/m 1.5x 1.3x 2.2x 2.6x
31 32 33 34 35
* Safety Insurance Colony Financial Paychex Foot Locker Bristol Myers Squibb
SAFT CLNY PAYX FL BMY
40.77 17.17 25.38 12.39 26.44
-25% -4% -3% -24% -19%
4% 22% 30% 35% 2%
612 251 9,174 1,935 45,340
n/m n/m 8,807 1,553 44,424
4% 3% 5% 5% 5%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
12x 16x 19x 14x 12x
12x 11x 17x 12x 11x
1.0x .9x >9.9x 1.0x 5.9x
36 37 38 39 40
Microchip Technology TrustCo Bank Corp NY People's United Baldwin & Lyons * Intersil
MCHP TRST PBCT BWINB ISIL
28.61 5.46 13.24 21.54 10.50
-18% -4% -1% -9% -4%
11% 32% 30% 24% 62%
5,320 420 4,911 319 1,300
4,346 n/m n/m n/m 1,261
5% 5% 5% 6% 5%
5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
12x 13x 34x 22x 36x
12x 11x 22x 14x 9x
3.7x 1.7x 1.4x .9x 4.7x
41 42 43 44 45
Washington Trust * Westwood Holdings * H&R Block * Healthcare Services * CNinsure
WASH WHG HRB HCSG CISG
18.38 28.98 13.47 20.92 23.79
-24% -2% 0% -18% -33%
11% 40% 72% 13% 20%
297 216 4,355 917 1,085
n/m n/m 3,665 838 n/m
5% 4% 4% 4% 1%
5% 5% 4% 4% 4%
14x 19x 9x 26x 20x
12x 18x 7x 22x 16x
1.5x 4.7x >9.9x 5.0x 5.6x
Company website
SEC
Y!
Price Charts
* New additions are highlighted. Screening criteria: ► Positive net cash ► Positive EPS estimates for this FY and next FY ► MV > $100 million MV = market value. EV = enterprise value. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 168 of 175
Deep Value: Lots of Revenue, Low Enterprise Value Companies that trade at low multiples of net revenue ▼ Move To 52-Week Low High
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
EV/ Sales
Est. P/E This Next FY FY
Price to Tangible Book
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
1 2 3 4 5
Tech Data Ingram Micro World Fuel Services OfficeMax AmerisourceBergen
TECD IM INT OMX ABC
37.97 15.76 25.19 11.14 28.92
-8% -6% -14% -14% -28%
29% 20% 21% 78% 15%
1,926 2,469 1,499 947 8,064
1,405 2,059 1,203 755 8,114
.06x .06x .08x .10x .11x
10x 8x 11x 16x 14x
9x 8x 11x 11x 12x
1.0x .9x 2.6x 2.3x >9.9x
6 7 8 9 10
Cardinal Health Eastman Kodak SYNNEX Office Depot McKesson
CAH EK SNX ODP MCK
31.14 3.77 23.86 4.01 61.67
-22% -14% -4% -4% -11%
18% 141% 38% 129% 16%
11,275 1,013 849 1,107 16,124
10,649 995 1,063 1,608 15,137
.11x .13x .13x .14x .14x
13x 16x 8x n/m 13x
11x n/m 7x 29x 12x
3.7x n/m 1.1x 1.6x 6.2x
11 12 13 14 15
Insight Enterprises Sunoco Tesoro Tutor Perini Valero Energy
NSIT SUN TSO TPC VLO
13.97 35.01 11.32 19.63 16.54
-30% -31% -8% -21% -5%
21% 8% 50% 30% 32%
646 4,221 1,616 924 9,366
632 5,278 3,270 734 15,399
.14x .15x .17x .18x .20x
10x 18x n/m 9x 11x
9x 13x 9x 8x 8x
1.6x 1.5x .6x 1.5x .6x
16 17 18 19 20
Flextronics Administaff Sears Holdings Avnet BJ's Wholesale Club
FLEX ASF SHLD AVT BJ
5.35 21.71 61.59 24.17 41.77
-4% -24% -4% -5% -24%
57% 35% 104% 41% 14%
4,202 568 6,815 3,670 2,249
4,866 329 8,808 3,858 2,174
.20x .20x .20x .20x .20x
26x 24x 7x 16x
19x 23x 6x 15x
2.4x 2.6x 1.7x 1.5x 2.0x
21 22 23 24 25
Celestica Barnes & Noble EMCOR Group Owens & Minor Manpower
CLS BKS EME OMI MAN
8.05 15.53 23.24 26.90 44.89
-3% -23% -5% -5% -11%
41% 61% 28% 22% 40%
1,994 914 1,542 1,704 3,692
1,310 1,213 1,092 1,754 3,787
.21x .21x .21x .22x .22x
>99x 13x 14x 32x
74x 11x 13x 17x
1.4x n/m 3.5x 3.1x 4.1x
26 27 28 29 30
Arrow Electronics KBR * Bunge Frontier Oil Centene
ARW KBR BG FTO CNC
24.77 23.02 53.64 12.00 20.30
-12% -25% -15% -8% -17%
31% 7% 38% 38% 28%
2,918 3,597 7,525 1,268 1,049
3,682 2,463 9,702 1,175 1,007
.22x .22x .23x .23x .24x
6x 12x 18x 24x 11x
6x 12x 10x 11x 10x
1.5x 2.2x .9x 1.3x 2.1x
31 32 33 34 35
SUPERVALU * Jabil Circuit * Sanmina-SCI Andersons * Arkansas Best
SVU JBL SANM ANDE ABFS
10.08 11.17 10.27 35.87 19.87
0% -11% -53% -33% -5%
77% 66% 98% 9% 74%
2,139 2,429 818 660 503
9,340 2,955 1,445 737 399
.24x .24x .24x .24x .26x
6x 7x 8x 12x n/m
6x 6x 6x 11x 29x
n/m 1.8x 1.3x 1.5x 1.1x
36 37 38 39 40
Kroger * Benchmark Electron. Shaw Group Best Buy Rite Aid
KR BHE SHAW BBY RAD
21.13 15.01 32.35 32.50 0.95
-10% -3% -24% -1% -9%
17% 52% 25% 50% 147%
13,567 934 2,732 13,550 843
20,490 594 1,893 13,430 6,938
.26x .26x .27x .27x .27x
12x 11x 15x 9x n/m
11x 10x 13x 9x n/m
3.4x .9x 2.7x 3.8x n/m
41 42 43 44 45
Costco Wholesale Amerigroup * Brown Shoe * Dell * Tyson Foods
COST AGP BWS DELL TSN
55.04 37.75 12.84 12.07 16.62
-13% -45% -46% -3% -31%
13% 4% 55% 45% 24%
24,170 1,926 557 23,636 6,273
21,065 1,536 648 16,448 8,021
.28x .28x .28x .28x .28x
19x 11x 12x 10x 8x
17x 11x 10x 8x 9x
2.2x 2.4x 1.7x >9.9x 2.2x
Company website
SEC
Y!
Price Charts
* New additions are highlighted. Screening criteria: ► EV to trailing revenue less than 0.5x ► Market value does not exceed revenue ► Market value > $500 million MV = market value. EV = enterprise value. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 169 of 175
Deep Value: Neglected Gross Profiteers Companies that trade at low multiples of gross profit ▼ Move To 52-Week Low High
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
Enterprise Value / Gross Sales Profit EBIT
Est. P/E This Next FY FY
Price/ Tang. Book
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
1 2 3 4 5
* WellCare Winn-Dixie Stores Humana RealNetworks American Equity
WCG WINN HUM RNWK AEL
25.15 8.24 48.51 2.66 10.07
-12% -1% -28% -3% -39%
56% 94% 9% 103% 16%
1,069 454 8,210 361 590
89 302 1,242 60 326
.0x .0x .0x .1x .3x
.1x .1x .2x .2x .3x
n/m 8.9x .6x n/m 5.7x
11x 22x 8x n/m 5x
9x 23x 9x n/m 5x
1.7x .7x 1.9x 1.0x .6x
6 7 8 9 10
Imation Retail Ventures Charming Shoppes OfficeMax Eastman Kodak
IMN RVI CHRS OMX EK
8.87 9.33 3.42 11.14 3.77
-10% -55% -4% -14% -14%
42% 28% 102% 78% 141%
343 458 396 947 1,013
92 277 383 755 995
.1x .2x .2x .1x .1x
.4x .4x .4x .4x .4x
n/m 2.3x n/m 10.3x 1.6x
52x 55x n/m 16x 16x
34x 18x 11x n/m
.6x 2.7x 1.5x 2.3x n/m
11 12 13 14 15
E.W. Scripps Office Depot Blyth Haverty Furniture * Corinthian Colleges
SSP ODP BTH HVT COCO
7.41 4.01 38.75 10.50 4.49
-20% -4% -33% -2% -2%
59% 129% 55% 73% 352%
426 1,107 341 229 396
287 1,608 269 174 468
.4x .1x .3x .3x .3x
.5x .5x .5x .5x .6x
19.7x n/m 8.6x 16.6x 1.9x
16x n/m 14x 19x 3x
21x 29x 13x 13x 2x
.8x 1.6x 1.4x .9x 5.8x
16 17 18 19 20
Hot Topic Core-Mark AnnTaylor Stores THQ Genesco
HOTT CORE ANN THQI GCO
4.77 26.61 15.90 3.80 25.93
-4% -3% -27% -12% -24%
109% 30% 59% 118% 35%
212 287 939 258 624
151 233 676 142 523
.2x .0x .4x .2x .3x
.6x .6x .6x .6x .6x
15.8x 5.8x 9.3x n/m 7.3x
60x 13x 14x n/m 12x
24x 10x 12x 13x 10x
1.0x .8x 2.0x 1.4x 1.5x
21 22 23 24 25
Kelly Services Investment Tech Brown Shoe eHealth Christopher & Banks
KELYA ITG BWS EHTH CBK
11.53 14.37 12.84 10.03 6.21
-13% -2% -46% -1% -12%
64% 101% 55% 89% 87%
423 614 557 236 223
476 341 648 95 123
.1x .6x .3x .7x .3x
.7x .7x .7x .7x .7x
n/m 6.2x 10.8x 3.8x 18.1x
20x 11x 12x 18x 27x
11x 10x 10x 18x 18x
.8x 1.7x 1.7x 1.7x 1.1x
26 27 28 29 30
Extreme Networks Sears Holdings Barnes & Noble * TeleNav Stein Mart
EXTR SHLD BKS TNAV SMRT
2.64 61.59 15.53 5.14 7.16
-26% -4% -23% -10% -18%
44% 104% 61% 123% 92%
238 6,815 914 217 311
124 8,808 1,213 104 231
.4x .2x .2x .6x .2x
.7x .7x .7x .7x .7x
n/m 11.8x 16.6x 1.5x 5.5x
13x 24x >99x 6x 10x
11x 23x 74x 6x 9x
1.6x 1.7x n/m 1.5x 1.3x
31 32 33 34 35
Universal American IDT Corp. * Celadon Group * China Nepstar Sierra Wireless
UAM IDT CGI NPD SWIR
14.00 17.08 11.58 2.76 8.26
-39% -86% -26% -11% -21%
23% 15% 45% 192% 58%
1,057 386 258 291 257
653 213 286 123 143
.1x .2x .6x .4x .2x
.7x .7x .8x .8x .8x
2.5x 7.4x 31.1x 9.0x n/m
7x 18x 39x -
8x 12x 20x -
1.1x 2.5x 2.0x 1.3x 2.0x
36 37 38 39 40
* Wet Seal, The Molina Healthcare Fred's * Lincoln Educational Coldwater Creek
WTSLA MOH FRED LINC CWTR
2.93 26.33 11.17 11.19 3.57
-2% -35% -19% -3% -12%
79% 21% 29% 152% 158%
298 786 440 292 329
133 416 396 301 280
.2x .1x .2x .5x .3x
.8x .8x .8x .8x .8x
4.9x 7.7x 10.4x 2.7x n/m
15x 16x 15x 5x 60x
11x 14x 12x 4x 18x
1.1x 3.3x 1.1x 2.1x 1.4x
41 42 43 44 45
* Hawaiian Holdings Bob Evans Farms Liz Claiborne Kenneth Cole * Career Education
HA BOBE LIZ KCP CECO
5.20 25.76 4.79 12.63 17.54
-5% -10% -20% -36% -1%
77% 32% 103% 18% 105%
269 787 453 230 1,425
179 959 1,021 151 1,115
.1x .6x .4x .4x .6x
.8x .8x .8x .8x .8x
2.6x 9.0x n/m n/m 3.5x
8x 12x n/m 23x 6x
6x 11x 17x 17x 5x
n/m 1.3x n/m 1.7x 4.5x
Company website
SEC
Y!
Price Charts
* New additions are highlighted. Screening criteria: ► EV not more than trailing gross profit ► Market value not more than 2x gross profit ► Market value > $200 million MV = market value. EV = enterprise value. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 170 of 175
Activist Targets: Potential Sales, Liquidations or Recaps Companies that may unlock value through a corporate event ▼ Move To 52-Week Low High
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
Price to Tangible Book
Net Cash (% of MV)
Net Net ST Assets (% of MV)
EV/ Sales
Next FY P/E
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
1 2 3 4 5
* Qiao Xing Mobile * Qiao Xing Universal * Fuqi International * Audiovox * Volt Information
QXM XING FUQI VOXX VOL
2.40 1.47 7.03 6.43 7.34
-15% -7% -16% -9% -6%
118% 95% 365% 51% 86%
126 135 194 147 153
(183) (246) 69 78 125
.3x .3x .7x .6x .5x
244% 282% 64% 47% 18%
311% 209% 145% 143% 130%
n/m n/m .1x .1x .1x
5x -
6 7 8 9 10
* Crexus Investment * Imation * Opnext PennyMac Mortgage Tuesday Morning
CXS IMN OPXT PMT TUES
11.90 8.87 1.44 17.12 3.59
-1% -10% -5% -9% -42%
24% 42% 129% 17% 145%
216 343 129 288 154
(50) 92 72 (53) 128
.8x .6x .6x .9x .6x
123% 73% 45% 118% 17%
122% 121% 120% 113% 109%
n/m .1x .2x n/m .2x
10x 34x n/m 7x -
11 12 13 14 15
Colony Financial * PC Connection Alvarion * Movado Ingram Micro
CLNY PCCC ALVR MOV IM
17.17 6.42 1.93 10.92 15.76
-4% -21% -8% -21% -6%
22% 24% 142% 38% 20%
251 172 120 270 2,469
(24) 125 29 218 2,059
.9x .9x .8x .8x .9x
110% 27% 76% 19% 17%
109% 105% 100% 100% 99%
n/m .1x .1x .6x .1x
11x 10x 73x 8x
16 17 18 19 20
Axcelis Technologies * CE Franklin FormFactor * Sprott Physical Gold * Exceed Company
ACLS CFK FORM PHYS EDS
1.50 6.52 8.80 11.51 6.88
-60% -19% -4% -16% -11%
72% 19% 196% 12% 99%
156 113 442 795 135
121 113 45 786 105
.8x 1.0x .9x 1.1x .8x
22% 1% 90% 1% 22%
98% 95% 92% 92% 92%
.8x .3x .3x n/m .3x
6x n/m 4x
21 22 23 24 25
* Cynosure * Nam Tai Electronics Callaway Golf Benchmark Electron. Maxygen
CYNO NTE ELY BHE MAXY
9.26 4.90 6.59 15.01 5.51
-3% -17% -12% -3% -11%
52% 28% 55% 52% 37%
117 220 424 934 168
24 23 371 594 13
1.0x .7x .8x .9x 1.1x
80% 90% 13% 36% 92%
92% 92% 90% 89% 88%
.3x .1x .4x .3x .3x
>99x 11x 20x 10x n/m
26 27 28 29 30
QLT Force Protection Tech Data TomoTherapy Zoran
QLTI FRPT TECD TOMO ZRAN
5.59 4.16 37.97 3.19 8.62
-43% -6% -8% -19% -4%
19% 62% 29% 46% 43%
293 292 1,926 173 428
107 172 1,405 27 49
.7x .9x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x
64% 41% 27% 84% 89%
88% 88% 86% 85% 83%
2.3x .2x .1x .1x .1x
9x 9x n/m >99x
31 32 33 34 35
Aviat Networks InfoSpace SuperGen * Cogo Group Hurco
AVNW INSP SUPG COGO HURC
4.05 6.90 1.99 6.48 17.54
-17% -2% -14% -20% -21%
104% 76% 91% 23% 16%
242 249 120 229 113
120 25 17 153 77
.9x 1.1x 1.1x 1.2x 1.0x
51% 90% 86% 33% 32%
83% 82% 82% 81% 81%
.2x .1x .4x .4x .9x
>99x 36x 50x 7x 20x
36 37 38 39 40
* Arctic Cat * Kimball Ascent Media Cypress Bioscience * West Marine
ACAT KBALB ASCMA CYPB WMAR
8.18 5.13 25.89 3.75 9.93
-31% -3% -15% -45% -31%
97% 87% 18% 123% 37%
149 193 370 145 224
90 126 85 7 222
.9x .5x .6x 1.2x 1.0x
39% 35% 77% 95% 1%
81% 80% 79% 79% 78%
.2x .1x .2x .2x .4x
16x n/m n/m 10x
41 42 43 44 45
Hooker Furniture PCTEL Microtune * SMART Modular Core-Mark
HOFT PCTI TUNE SMOD CORE
9.89 5.79 2.24 4.74 26.61
0% -17% -26% -28% -3%
81% 23% 36% 85% 30%
107 109 122 297 287
68 40 39 246 233
.9x 1.0x 1.2x 1.1x .8x
36% 63% 68% 17% 19%
77% 77% 76% 76% 76%
.3x .6x .5x .4x .0x
9x 18x 28x 5x 10x
Company website
SEC
Y!
Price Charts
* New additions are highlighted. Criteria: ► Tang. book > 50% of MV ► ST assets - liabilities > 50% of MV ► Net cash ► MV > $100 million MV = market value. EV = enterprise value. © 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 171 of 175
This Month’s Top 10 Web Links A Selection of Our Favorite Freely Accessible Internet Resources
Click on the link next to each title, or type the Web address into your Web browser:
Wilbur Ross Talks to Charlie Rose
http://bit.ly/aiiIDz
Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Credit
http://bit.ly/cdN9k2
Malcolm Gladwell on Why Some Succeed Where Others Fail
http://bit.ly/da6WW0
Richard Thaler on Overconfidence Problem in Forecasting
http://nyti.ms/8ZJoZU
What “The Oracle of the North” Sees Ahead
http://yhoo.it/cHr7Gq
Bill Gross’s Investment Outlook
http://bit.ly/bS2k1D
Walter Schloss at Richard Ivey School of Business
http://bit.ly/dlnwv6
Profitable Lessons from Michael Price
http://bit.ly/cvMGGG
James Montier: Mean Reversion Is Not Dead
http://bit.ly/9umeA3
Richard Perry’s Q2 2010 Letter
http://scr.bi/9rvTwk
© 2008-2010 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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August 27, 2010 – Page 172 of 175
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