Value-orient V ted Equity Innvestment Iddeas for Sopphisticated Innvestors A Monthly Pub blication of Bey yondProxy LLC Subscribe e at manualofide eas.com “If “ our efforts ca an further the g goals of our mem mbers by giving g them a discern rnible edge over other marrket participants ts, we have succ ceeded.”
Investing In The Tradition of G Graham, Buffettt, Klarman Year IV, Volum me II February 28, 20 011 When asked ho ow he became so o successful, Bufffett answered: “We read hund dreds and hundre eds of annual reporrts every year.”
TTop Ideas In This Report SSeagate Technologgy ((Nasdaq: STX) …………………… … …114
SSprint Nextel ((NYSE: S) ……… ………………........118
ZZimmer Holdings ((NYSE: ZMH) ……………………..130
THE H SUP PERINVE ESTOR ISSUE ► Snaps shot of 100 companies s owned by superinves stors ► Latest h holdings off 50 top inve estors ► 19 companie es profiled by MOI rese earch team ► Proprie etary select ion of Top 3 candidate es for inves stment ► Plus: Exclu usive interv view with Brrian Bares ► Plus: Exclusi ve interview w with Brya an Lawrence e ► Plu us: Favorite e stock scre eens for value investorrs
A Also Inside EEditor’s Commentaary ……………… …... 5 Interview with Briian Bares ………… 8 Interview with Bryyan Lawrence …… … 12 P Portfolios with Siggnal Value™ …… … 18 N New or Increased Holdings ………. 70 R Reduced or Offsettting Holdings …. 134 100 Superinvestorr Stocks ………… …146 EEssay by Josh Taraasoff …………… 156 FFavorite Value Scrreens …………… …158 TThis Month’s Top Web W Links …….. 167
A About The Manuual of Ideas O Our goal is to brin ng you investmen nt id deas that are com mpelling on the b basis of value verrsus price. In ourr q quest for value, we w analyze the to op h holdings of top fund managers. We W a also use a proprie etary methodolog gy to o identify stocks that are not wide ely fo ollowed by institu utional investors.. O Our research team has extensive e experience in industry and securitty a analysis, equity valuation, v and in nvestment mana agement. We brin ng a “buy side” mindse et to the idea g generation process, cutting across in ndustries and ma arket capitalizatio on ra anges in our sea arch for compellin ng e equity investmentt opportunities.
Supe erinvestor com mpanies menti tioned in this iissue include AbitibiBo owater, Accuriide, Alere, Am merican Towerr, Amylin Pharrma, Anadarko Petroleum, P An nheuser-Busch h InBev, Appliied Materials, Arris, BP, Brroadridge Fina ancial, Brookffield Infrastruc cture Partners s, CareFusion n, CBS, Charte er Comms, Ch hesapeake Ene ergy, China M Mobile, Cisco o Systems, Co oca-Cola, Com mcast, CommS Scope, Copart,, Corporatte Executive, D DaVita, Dean F Foods, Electro onic Arts, Ens sco, Enstar Group, G Expres ss Scripts, Exx xon Mobil, Fis serv, Flextroniics, Flowserve,, Fortune Bran nds, Foster W Wheeler, Gap, G Gastar Explora ation, Generral Growth, Ge eneral Motors,, H&R Block, H Hain Celestiall, Harvest Na atural Resourc ces, Hewlett-P Packard, Intern national Paperr, ITT, J.C. Penne ey, Johnson & Johnson, Kra aft Foods, Lab b Corp. of Ame erica, Lamar Ad dvertising, Lea ap Wireless, L Learning Tree,, Level 3 Com mms, Liberty y Global, Liberrty Interactive e, Lions Gate E Entertainmentt, Loral Space e, LyondellBas sell, Massey E Energy, Maste erCard, McDon nald's, McKess son, Microsofft, Molson Coo ors, MRV Com mms, Omnicarre, Owens Illiinois, PDL Bio oPharma, Pfizzer, Plains Exp ploration, POS SCO, Praxair, Procter P & Gam mble, Radian G Group, Raythe eon, Ross Storres, Schlum mberger, Seaga ate Technolog gy, Sears Hold dings, Snap-o on, Spectru um Brands, Sp print Nextel, S Stanley Black Decker, Steris s, Teck Reso ources, Texas s Industries, T Theravance, Tiime Warner Ca able, Tyco Interrnational, Vaill Resorts, Vale eant Pharma, Vishay Precis sion, Vulcan Materrials, W.R. Gra ace, Wal-Mart,, Watson Pharrma, Wendy's//Arby's, Zimmer H Holdings, ZipR Realty, and mo ore. (analyze ed companies s are underline ed)
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Value-orientedd Equity Investmentt Ideas for Sophisticcated Investors
Table of Conntents ED DITORIAL CO OMMENTARY Y ........................................................................... 5 EX XCLUSIVE INT TERVIEW W WITH BRIAN B BARES ............................................ 8 EX XCLUSIVE INT TERVIEW W WITH BRYAN LAWRENCE E................................ 12 50+ + PORTFOLIOS WITH SIG GNAL VALUE™ ................................................ 18 AKRE CAPITAL (CHUCK AKRE) ..................................................................................................... 19 APPALOOSA (DAV VID TEPPER) .................................. .................................................................... 20 ATLANTIC INVESTM MENT (ALEXANDE ER ROEPERS) ...... .................................................................... 21 BARES CAPITAL (B BRIAN BARES)................................................................................................... 22 BAUPOST (SETH KLARMAN) ......................................................................................................... 23 BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY (WARREN B UFFETT) ........... .................................................................... 24 BLUE RIDGE (JOHN GRIFFIN) ....................................................................................................... 25 BP B CAPITAL (BOO ONE PICKENS) ................................ .................................................................... 26 BRAVE WARRIOR (GLENN GREENB ERG) ..................................................................................... 27 BREEDEN CAPITAL (RICHARD BREEEDEN) ..................................................................................... 28 CENTAUR VALUE (Z ( EKE ASHTON) ................................................................................................ 29 CHILDREN’S INVES STMENT (CHRIS H OHN) ................ .................................................................... 30 CHOU ASSOCIATE ES (FRANCIS CHOU U) ...................... .................................................................... 31 EAGLE (BOYKIN CURRY) .............................................................................................................. 32 EDINBURGH PART TNERS (SANDY NA AIRN) .................. .................................................................... 33 ESL E INVESTMENTS (EDDIE LAMPER RT) ..................... .................................................................... 34 FAIRFAX (PREM WATSA).............................................................................................................. 35 FAIRHOLME (BRUC CE BERKOWITZ) ............................ .................................................................... 36 FORCE CAPITAL (R ROBERT JAFFE) ................................................................................................ 37 GATES CAPITAL (J JEFF GATES)..................................................................................................... 38 GLENVIEW (LARRY Y ROBBINS) .................................. .................................................................... 39 GOLDENTREE (STEVE T TANANBAUM M) ....................... .................................................................... 40 GREENLIGHT (DAV VID EINHORN) ............................... .................................................................... 41 H PARTNERS (REH HAN JAFFER) ................................ .................................................................... 42 HARBINGER (PHILL FALCONE) ....................................................................................................... 43 HAWKSHAW (KIAN N GHAZI) ....................................... .................................................................... 44 HOUND PARTNERS S (JONATHAN AUE ERBACH) ............ .................................................................... 45 ICAHN CAPITAL (C CARL ICAHN) ...................................................................................................... 46 LANE FIVE (LISA RAPUANO) ......................................................................................................... 47 LEUCADIA (IAN CUMMING U AND JOE STEINBERG) ...... .................................................................... 48 LONE PINE (STEVE MANDEL) ....................................................................................................... 49 MARKEL GAYNER (TOM GAYNER) ................................................................................................ 50 MHR M (MARK RACHESKY) ............................................................................................................ 51 MSD M CAPITAL (GLENN L FUHRMAN AAND JOHN PHELAN N) ................................................................. 52 PABRAI FUNDS (M MOHNISH PABRAI) ............................................................................................. 53 PAULSON & CO. (J JOHN PAULSON) ............................................................................................... 54 PENNANT (ALAN FOURNIER) ........................................................................................................ 55 PERSHING SQUAR RE (BILL ACKMAN) ........................ .................................................................... 56 SAGEVIEW (ED GILHULY I AND SCOT TT STUART) ........ .................................................................... 57 SCOUT (JAMES CRICHTON R ).......................................................................................................... 58 SECOND CURVE (TOM BROWN) ................................................................................................... 59 SOUTHEASTERN (MASON HAWKINSS) ........................................................................................... 60 SPENCER (KEN SHUBIN H STEIN) .................................................................................................... 61 TETON (QUINCY LEE) .................................................................................................................. 62 THIRD POINT (DAN N LOEB) ........................................ .................................................................... 63 TIGER GLOBAL (C CHASE COLEMAN) ............................................................................................. 64 VIKING GLOBAL (A ANDREAS HALVOR RSEN) ................. .................................................................... 65 WEITZ FUNDS (WALLY A WEITZ) ..................................................................................................... 66 WEST COAST (LANCE HELFERT AND D PAUL ORFALEA A) .................................................................. 67 WINTERGREEN (D DAVID WINTERS) ................................................................................................ 68 WL W ROSS & CO. (W ( ILBUR ROSS)................................................................................................. 69
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EW OR INCRE EASED SUPE ERINVESTOR HOLDINGS S .............................. 70 NE ABITIBIBOWATER (ABH) — FAIRFAAX , MARKEL , PAULSON , THIRD POINT ........... 70 ACCURIDE (ACW)) — THIRD POINT ...................................................................................... 74 ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV (BUD) — MARKEL .......................................................................... 78 BP B (BP) — BLUE RIDGE , BP CAAPITAL , CHOU , GREENLIGHT .................................... 82 BROOKFIELD INFR RASTRUCTURE PA ARTNERS (BIP) — PABRAI ................................................. 86 GASTAR EXPLORA ATION (GST) — B BP CAPITAL .. .................................................................... 90 GM G (GM) — APPA ALOOSA , BLU UE RIDGE , GL LENVIEW , PEN NNANT , PERS SHING . 94 HAIN CELESTIAL (HAIN) — ICAHN ........................................................................................... 98 LIONS GATE ENTE ERTAINMENT (LGF F) — ICAHN , M MHR ........................................................ 102 MASTERCARD (MA A) — AKRE , BR RAVE WARRIOR , LONE PINE , TIGER ......................... 106 PDL P BIOPHARMA (PDLI) — BAUPO OST ............. .................................................................. 110 SEAGATE TECHNO OLOGY (STX) — E ESL , GLENVI EW , PAULSON ............................... 114 SPRINT NEXTEL (S S) — CHOU , G OLDENTREE , GREENLIGHT ..................................... 118 VULCAN MATERIA ALS (VMC) — SOU UTHEASTERN , W EITZ .................................................... 122 WENDY’S/ARBY’S (WEN) — SOUTH HEASTERN ...... .................................................................. 126 ZIMMER HOLDINGS (ZMH) — BAREES , EDINBURG GH , GATES ....................................... 130
RE EDUCED OR OFFSETTING G SUPERINV VESTOR HOL LDINGS ................. 134 BROADRIDGE (BR R) — BRAVE WAR RIOR , CENTAUR R , GLENVIEW W , GREENLIGH HT ..... 134 CHINA MOBILE (CHL) — KLEINHEIN NZ .................. .................................................................. 138 HARVEST NATURA AL RESOURCES (H HNR) — PABRAI ............................................................... 142
SN NAPSHOT OF F 100 SUPER RINVESTOR H HOLDINGS ................................. 146 IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER .......................................................................................................... 146 BY MARKET VALUE ................................................................................................................... 148 BY STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE .............................................................................................. 150 BY ESTIMATED FORWARD O P/E ................................................................................................... 152 BY AVERAGE ANN NUAL ROE (PAST S SEVEN YEARS) ... .................................................................. 154
ESSAY: “ON PRICING POW WER,” BY JO OSH TARASO OFF ........................ 156 FA AVORITE STO OCK SCREEN NS FOR VAL LUE INVESTO ORS ....................... 158 “M “ AGIC FORMULA A,” BASED ON TRAIILING OPERATING G INCOME .................................................... 158 “M “ AGIC FORMULA A,” BASED ON THIS S YEAR’S EPS ES STIMATES .................................................... 159 “M “ AGIC FORMULA A,” BASED ON NEXT XT YEAR’S EPS ES STIMATES ................................................... 160 CONTRARIAN: BIG GGEST YTD LOSER RS (DELEVERAGE ED & PROFITABLE) ........................................ 161 VALUE WITH CATA ALYST: CHEAP RE EPURCHASERS OF STOCK ...................................................... 162 PROFITABLE DIVID DEND PAYORS WIT TH DECENT BALA NCE SHEETS .............................................. 163 DEEP VALUE: LOT TS OF REVENUE, L OW ENTERPRISE E VALUE ...................................................... 164 DEEP VALUE: NEG GLECTED GROSS PROFITEERS ...... .................................................................. 165 ACTIVIST TARGETS: POTENTIAL SAALES, LIQUIDATION NS OR RECAPS ............................................ 166
THIS MONTH’S S TOP 10 WE EB LINKS ......................................................... 167
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Edditorial Commentaryy We are pleased to bring yoou a new Superrinvestor Issue of The Manuaal of Ideas, featturing the top equity ideas off 50 leading innvestment mannagers. Inside, you’ll find snaapshots of “sup perinvestor” poortfolios as weell as analysis of 19 compannies owned by the t superinvestors. We try to avoid repeating ccompany analyyses in short ssuccession, so we are not cov vering Cisco Sy ystems (Nasdaaq: CSCO) in thhis report. Wee featured Ciscoo as one of ourr top ideas amo ong large-cap public compannies last montth. This monthh, we noted with interest in 13F-HR filings with the SEC C that several ssuperinvestors have been buy ying Cisco. Peerhaps most innterestingly, Edddie Lampert oof ESL Investtments, not typically known for preferring technology companies, purrchased a stakke in Cisco h quarter. Sanndy Nairn of E Edinburgh Parrtners, David Tepper of durring the fourth App paloosa, Alan Fournier of Peennant, Larry R Robbins of Gleenview, and Zeeke Ashton of Centaur C also in ncreased their oownership of C Cisco. We find the following thrree companies that superinveestors have beeen buying worrthy of closer consideration: c Sea agate Technolo ogy (Nasdaq: S STX, $12.70 pper share; MV $5.7 billion) $3 35 $3 30 $2 25 $2 20 $1 15 $1 10 $ $5 $ $0 Feb 03
Feb 04
Feb 05
Feb 06
Feb 07
Feb 08 8
Feb 09
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Disk drive maker m Seagate has shown it ccan generate ssignificant freee cash flow thro ough the cyclee, despite operaating in a capiital-intensive aand competitivve industry. Thee company hass capable and pproperly incenttivized manageement as well as a strong marrket position, both of whicch seem to bbe underapprecciated by pubblic market investors. It is theerefore not surpprising that Seagate was receently in “discusssions with priv vate equity firrms regardingg a going privvate transactionn” (the talks apparently end ded in late 2010 0, for now anyw way). While concerns around thee sustainabilityy of disk drivve growth in tthe face of alteernative storag ge technologiess may be legittimate, we finnd the shares aattractively pricced, trading at a low teens freee cash flow yiield on averagee FCF during 22007-10. Three superiinvestors estabblished new ppositions in Seeagate during the fourth quaarter—Eddie Lampert, John P Paulson, and Larry Robbins.
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Value-orientedd Equity Investmentt Ideas for Sophisticcated Investors
Sprrint Nextel (NY YSE: S, $4.25 pper share; MV V $12.7 billion) n) $3 30
$2 25
$2 20
$1 15
$1 10
$ $5
$ $0
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Feb 03
Feb 04
Feb 05
Feb 06
Feb 07
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The share prrice of U.S. w wireless comm munications proovider Sprint N Nextel has decclined from $20 0+ in 2006 as a result of Nextel merger inntegration problems and a weaak economy. Turnaround effforts by CEO O Hesse are ffinally showinng signs of succcess in the forrm of multi-yeear bests for nnew customer eenrollments annd churn in 201 10. If wirelesss margin can bbe improved tto the level off smaller rivall T-Mobile USA, Sprint Nex xtel shares maay be worth tw wice the recennt market pricce. Even if EBITDA stays fllat at the deprressed 2010 levvel, we find tthe high-teens FCF yield wn, we can (asssuming recentt capex) attracctive. Followinng additional debt paydow env vision Sprint ussing cash flow to institute a ddividend and/orr buyback proggram. David Einhorrn and Steve T Tananbaum esttablished new ppositions in Spprint in Q4, whiile Francis Cho ou maintained his existing hooldings in the ccompany. Zim mmer Holdingss (NYSE: ZMH H, $61 per shaare; MV $12 biillion) $10 00 $9 90 $8 80 $7 70 $6 60 $5 50 $4 40 $3 30 $2 20 $1 10 $ $0 Feb 02
Feb 03
Feb 04
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Zimmer has market-leadinng positions inn knee and hipp reconstructioon markets worrldwide (27% global share inn knees, 21% share in hips). The business appears to hav ve a defensiblee moat and ggenerates high returns on innvested capitall. Patented pro oducts, technollogical knowhoow and strongg mindshare aamong patientss, surgeons and d payors positiion the compaany to take advvantage of conntinued industtry growth. Agiing population ns, rising livinng standards aand new prodducts provide long-term, larg gely non-cyclical demand ddrivers. The vaaluation appeaars quite attracctive at an ~8% % trailing FCF yield on a stroong balance shheet. Brian Bares and Sandy Naairn built new equity stakes in Zimmer in Q4, while Jefff Gates added to t his existing holdings in thee company.
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I had the pleasure of co-hoosting VALUE Ex Zurich/Klossters with my ffriend Guy Spiier of Aquamarrine Capital inn early Februarry. Guy’s ability to steer the discussion in a gracious yet efficient mannner — not to m mention his ability on the skii slopes — mad de the event a huge success. We were overrwhelmed by thhe level of atteendance by felllow value inveestors from alll over the worrld, and the quuality of the ppeople who cam me was impressive. Most graatifying to me w was the sharedd sentiment thaat the event wass a great learniing opportunityy and a fun tim me. I had the ppleasure of speending time with and learning g from several folks, includinng Ethan Bergg, David Coynne, Graham nningham, Shaai Dardashti, O Ori Eyal, and Jeeffrey Hamm, tto name a few. Cun One of the participants p w whose wisdom I particularlyy appreciated w was Bryan Law wrence of Oak kcliff Capital, aan investor whho has partnereed with Glenn Greenberg in the t past and now n manages a firm with aan exemplary structure and long-term orieentation. Guy Spier told us the followingg about Bryann: “[He] is thaat rare and rem markable breed d who likes to do much, say little and allow w actions or, eeven better, resu ults speak for themselves. Inn addition to rracking up greeat returns at O Oakcliff, a partnership Bryan n started after a successful caareer as a partnner at Lazard B Brothers, he wass the only perrson invited bby Glenn Greeenberg (of Chieftain) to parrtner up in fou unding Brave Warrior. W But peerhaps the mosst extraordinarry is Bryan’s w work as the chaairman of Pub blic Prep, a ggroup of charrter schools thhat have a reeal shot at tran nsforming the public schooll education lanndscape in thee United Statess.” We are pleaased to bring you y an exclusivve and rare inteerview with Brryan in this repport. Another VAL LUEx particippant whose insights I foundd thought-provvoking was Josh Tarasoff of Greenlea G Lane Capital. Josh sspoke on the toopic of pricing power. He hass graciously agrreed to let us reeprint his essayy in this reportt. Finally, we are a pleased to bring you an exclusive interrview with fam med smallcap p value manageer Brian Bares. Brian has possted impressivee returns over m many years by focusing on sm mall-cap value in a concentratted way. He haas eschewed assset growth f of maintaaining an abilitty to have his investments inn small public companies in favor “mo ove the needlee” for his cliennts. Despite thee lack of aggreessive marketinng, Brian’s firm m has grown to o several hunddred million doollars in assets,, driven by stroong returns and d an ability to attract investoors who have sstuck with hiss approach in ggood times and d bad. Most reecently, Brian authored the bbook The Smaall-Cap Advanntage: How Top p Endowments and Foundatioons Turn Smalll Stocks into B Big Returns. Annyone who wan nts to benefit from investinng in small, uundervalued ccompanies shoould regard Brian’s book as a must read. Sincerrely,
John M Mihaljevic, CF FA and Th The Manual of IIdeas research team
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Exclusivee Interview w with Briian Bares We are pleassed to present aan interview w with Austin, Teexas-based valuue investor Brian Bares. Bares Capital Management w was founded inn 2000, initiallly focusing nts in micro-caap public comp mpanies. The firrm launched a small-cap on investmen strategy in 20 001. Brian hass adhered to a disciplined buusiness strateggy, limiting the growth of o assets underr managementt over time. Brian is the autthor of the newly publisshed book Thee Small-Cap A Advantage: Hoow Top Endow wments and Foundations Turn Small Stoocks into Big R Returns. was published in the August 2009 issue Our firstt interview withh Brian Bares w of The Manu ual of Ideas aand focused onn Brian’s inveestment philosoophy. This month’s interrview focuses oon some of thee topics covered in Brian’s neew book. The Manua al of Ideas: M Much has happpened in thee markets sincce we last interviewed in August 20009. How haave rapidly reebounding equuity prices affected yourr ability to findd bargains? Whhat are you worrried about moost today? Brian Bares: Our investm ment process is different from m that of other managers. We do not sccreen for low prices in compparison to earnnings, cash floow or book value as a sttarting point foor our researchh. We seek ouut competitive businesses run by excep ptional manageers. In this resppect, our searcch for value is qualitative instead of quantitative. Our contentiion is that tthe market cchronically undervalues exceptional bbusinesses andd managementt teams. Todaay we are finding moree of these than ever before. P Prices have rissen since we laast touched base, but wee are finding opportunities where the reccognition of eexceptional qualitative faactors has yet to manifest ittself in markeet prices. In m many cases, underlying bu usiness value aand earnings ppower has recoovered more quuickly than market pricin ng. Our worriies today are nno different thhan our worriees were in 2009. We are a concerned with the ecoonomic exposures of our bbusinesses. Because we run concentraated strategiess, we attempt to minimize correlation between the drivers d of valuee within our poortfolio.
“ “Our contention is that the t market chronically al undervaluess exceptiona buusinesses an nd management teeams. Today we are findiing more of theese than everr befo fore.”
MOI: We reecently had thee pleasure of rreading your nnewly publisheed book on the small cap p value processs. You generouusly provide a bblueprint for innstitutional investment in n this part of tthe equities unniverse. What differentiates yyour book, and what is th he key messagge you are hopiing to get acrosss? Bares: Therre are a few w differentiatoors. First, thee book focusees on the opportunitiess available to small stock investors whho cap their aasset base. Capping asseets is critical ffor managers w who wish to m maintain flexibbility in the space. Most professional small-cap inveestors who exxperience succcess attract a inflows . This handdicaps their ppotential for sustained significant asset outperforman nce. An increassed asset base leaves a manaager with two choices — increased div versification w within the poortfolio, or inncreased markket cap of potential ideaas. The first chhoice crimps ppotential returnns, and the secoond choice increases com mpetition for innvestment ideaas. The seccond differentiiator is that the book offfers a window w into the challenges off growing an innstitutionally-ffocused small-ccap firm. Instittutions and their consultaants should bee able to comee away with a greater undersstanding of how they caan increase peerformance byy investing wiith small entreepreneurial managers an nd what extra due diligencee may be requuired before ccommitting capital to these managers.
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MOI: The hiistorical outpeerformance of small caps andd their relativee illiquidity are well documented. Whaat are some of the less welll-known advanntages and disadvantages of investing iin small cap vaalue? Bares: One advantage thaat is misundeerstood by thee general publlic is that, p off hedge fundss and other prrofessional invvestors, the despite the proliferation space is still inefficient. Succcessful professsionals who ooperate in smalll caps tend to attract asssets and graduuate to mid annd large caps, while their unnsuccessful peers leave the t business. W Wall Street firrms dependentt on investmennt banking, trading, and other fees shyy away from tthe space for pprofitability reeasons, and h departments tend to focus oon the largest ccompanies. Thhe resulting their research vacuum in participation p prrovides a real opportunity ffor individuals and small firms focused d on doing theiir own homewoork. Another advantage of iinvesting in sm maller compannies is that theyy are easier d. They tend tto have singlee product liness and relativelly straightto understand forward finaancial structurres. The disaadvantages of the space innclude the presence of troubled or ooverly speculaative companiees. For the fuundamental researcher, these companiies may not ooffer any oppportunity for a research advantage. Th hey may also iintroduce the reeal risk of perm manent loss of capital. MOI: You have h limited yoour assets undeer managemennt in order to cconcentrate on your bestt ideas while avoiding markket cap creep.. How do youu go about designing a marketing m strateegy if you are primarily conccerned with thee quality of investors rath her than the quaantity of assetss?
“Successfull professiona als who operatee in small ca aps tend to attrract assets an nd graduate to mid and larrge caaps, while th heir unsuccesssful peers leave the businesss.”
Bares: When n capacity is llimited, the quuality of a maanager’s client base is of paramount im mportance. Wee were able too survive the 22008-‘09 downnturn while retaining all of our instituttional clients aand capital. Thhis is a testam ment to the high-quality roster of cliennts that we haave attracted ffrom the foundation and endowment space. Their pperpetual timee horizon andd limited liquiidity needs t be patient w with us. Their assessment off our performaance is not allow them to measured in months or quaarters, but insteead over rollinng multi-year pperiods. To ype of investoor, we have fo found that tradditional marketting is not attract this ty really effectiive. Prospectivve clients must obviously bbe made awarre of your presence and d your investm ment approach, but word off mouth and reeputational capital are usually u the di fference betw ween passing iinterest and serious due diligence on the part of ann institution. M Many institutioons and consulltants share p maanagers, which heightens the importance off intangible ideas about prospective qualities such as honesty and integrity. Building thee managementt company slowly and methodically m annd placing a prrimacy on the iinterests of thee client will create invaluaable reputationnal capital. Dellivering on proomises like capping assets also builds tru ust. MOI: At thee recent VALU UEx in Zurich//Klosters, Bryan Lawrence oof Oakcliff Capital madee the point thaat investor reddemptions in laate 2008 and early 2009 reflected at least l in part vaalue managers’ failure to prooperly commuunicate and condition theeir investors ffor tough timees. What best practices can you share when it comees to communiccating with youur investors? Bares: I advo ocate completee transparency,, and I view innvestment manaagement as a service, nott a product. Cliients deserve tto know what w we are doing annd how we are thinking at a all times. Thhis helps engennder trust. It aalso keeps us oon our toes. Since we fun nction as a reseearch arm for oour clients in ssmall stocks annd are paid
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February 28, 2011 – Page 9 of 170
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to provide ou ur very best iddeas, we are abbsolved from m many of the hhigher-level tactical decissions in our cliients’ portfolioos. The measuurement of ourr success is against a relative r smalll-company beenchmark. W We had poorr absolute performance in 2008, but given our lonng-only orientaation, our cliennts did not o deliver posiitive results. I would agreee that temperring client expect us to expectations should be parrt of every maanager’s job, aand we definittely do our share of that, especially afteer periods of sttrong performaance. MOI: What advice would you give to ann aspiring actiive manager inn small-cap stocks? Whatt are some wayys of identifyinng pockets of ppotential inefficciency? Bares: I wou uld advise asp iring managerrs to temper thheir own expecctations for success. Even the best invvestment proceess can underpperform for yeears. Value ho lived throuugh the late 1990s can atttest to that. B Building a managers wh successful fiirm takes a sustained com mmitment to an investmennt strategy. Attracting lo ong-term cliennts is not easyy either. Manyy of us were not lucky enough to beegin with an exxisting roster of multimillionn dollar clientts. Landing our first instiitutional accouunt took almosst three years. Engaging in ooutreach to prospects and d existing cliennts is a necesssary part of thee business. Ballancing the time pressuree of commitmeents on the invvestment reseaarch side of thhe business and on the marketing and opperations side is very difficult in the early yyears.
“True infformational aadvantages are a rare, eveen in ssmall companies. Moreover, thhey are usua ally poor sou urces of long-term investor retu urn. F Flipping a $1 10 company with $1 worth off undiscoverred reeal estate on n the books iss not a repeatab ble recipe fo or suustained outp tperformancee…”
most people Identifyiing pockets off inefficiency iss a broader enndeavor than m think. It is not n limited to finding underrvalued assets on a balance sheet that others may have h missed. T True informatioonal advantagees are rare, eveen in small companies. Moreover, M theey are usuallyy poor sourcees of long-term m investor return. Flippiing a $10 comppany with $1 w worth of undisccovered real esstate on the books is not a repeatable rrecipe for sustaained outperfoormance in myy opinion. I would argue that an investtor’s time is beetter spent tryiing to identifyy analytical fficiencies migght include thee market’s and behaviorral inefficienccies. These eff misunderstan nding of the exxceptional capiital allocation ability of a m management team, or the competitive c strrength of a com mpany. Spinofffs being indisccriminately sold for strucctural reasons aare another exaample. MOI: If you u were an insttitution evaluaating a small-ccap value mannager, what would be the key questions you would waant answered? uld want to gget comfortablee with the invvestment philoosophy and Bares: I wou process, the people, and the operationns of the business. I would want to h the investtment process would producce repeatable rresults that understand how should, over time, compouund my capitall in excess of benchmark reeturns on a net-of-fees baasis. I would allso want assuraance that the sttewards of my capital are honest, hard--working peopple with reasonnable incentivees. Finally, I w would need to get comforrtable with thee operations off the manager. Simple questioons such as “How do you u get your inveestment edge?””; “What is thee background aand history of the investm ment team?”; and “How cann I be assured that you can execute on what you say y you will do?”” would shed soome light on thhese issues. MOI: “Edge” is a rather eluusive concept, and it often seeems institutionns are most y investors whho convey ann ability to exxploit a speciffic type of impressed by market inefficiency, even iff the inefficienncy could provee to be fleetingg. Is there a way to differrentiate betweeen a temporaryy and permanennt “edge”? Is jjudgment a legitimate sou urce of compeetitive advantagge, or does “eddge” need to bbe based on some type off information addvantage?
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Bares: I am in agreement tthat “edge” is an elusive conncept; howeverr, there are concrete examples. A quanntitative analyyst who relies on specific faactors may have perform med extensive backtesting too support the eexistence of annomalies. I would argue that an “edge”” in this sensee is temporary. Widespread aadoption of odels nullifies their value. A more permannent advantagee might lie factors or mo with the anallyst who underrstands a speciific industry better than otheers, or with those who arre better able tto assess a com mpany’s manaagement and ccompetitive position. I do d not think that an “edgee” needs to dderive directlyy from an informationall advantage.
“The markeet may ignorre doominant businesses that stay ssmall for exttended periods. But compan nies that havve am mple opportu unity to rein nvest fo for extended periods, p or that t grrow through acquisition,, are not ignoreed for long.” ”
MOI: In you ur book, you ddiscuss variouss performance drags that are somewhat specific to sm mall cap investi ting. Which of those drags doo you consider to be most detrimental to o an investor’ss long-term perrformance? Bares: The illiquidity i of sm mall-cap stockks causes wideer spreads, highher market impact, and longer impleementation off investment ideas. These enormous implicit costss could nullify all of the advaantages of beinng in the spacee. Investors need to be careful c when tthey buy and sell in small caps and shouuld have a longer-term investment i horrizon. MOI: There is a perceptiion that small--cap value is a tough huntiing ground because smalll companies ccan “stay cheaap forever,” ass they are rem moved from the limelightt of the investtment industryy. Is this perceeption justifiedd? Do you require a cataalyst in order too consider an innvestment in a small companny? Bares: Theree is some truth to the notion tthat some smalll companies trrade at low multiples forr extended periiods. We havee been holders of a few of thhese in the past. Our prrocess has evoolved slightly over the yearrs, and we noow have a preference fo or smaller comp mpanies that cann become mateerially larger. T The market may ignore dominant bussinesses that sstay small forr extended peeriods. But hat have amplee opportunity to reinvest for extended perioods, or that companies th grow through h acquisition, aare not ignoredd for long. We do not requiree a catalyst to make our initial investm ments, but we ccertainly want to know as m much as we hy an opportuniity exists for uus before we maake an investm ment. can about wh MOI: It seem ms that manageement quality m may be even m more important in the case of a small co ompany, yet m most small-capp CEOs are rellatively unknoown among investors. Ho ow do you go aabout assessingg management?? Bares: Assesssing managem ment is difficullt, as many havve risen to theeir perch in business by possessing ssoft skills thaat could cloakk potential w weaknesses. ment team. Likeability can become ann insidious biass when assessiing a managem h we have takeen is develop eexpertise throuugh experiencee. We have The approach met with hun ndreds of mannagement team ms. Only by dooing the difficuult work of visiting comp panies can an investor devellop a baseline for what an eexceptional manager loo oks like. We aare looking fo for people who excel in strrategy and operations, an nd give the rigght answers to our questionss about capital allocation. When insiderrs own a materrial amount of company stock, our comfortt level with their future capital allocaation decisionns increases. A managemeent team’s may act in the future. We historical acttions can give us insight intoo how they m have develop ped a preferennce for people who have beeen successful in the past with other co ompanies. Wheen we find theese people, wee have been suuccessful in investing in their t encore perrformances.
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w with Bryyan Lawreence Exclusivee Interview We had the pleasure p of speending time and learning from m Bryan Lawrrence at the recent VALU UEx in Zurich/K Klosters, Switzzerland. We caaught up with B Bryan after the event and d are pleased to bring you some of his innsights in this interview. After eleven years as a baanker at Lazarrd, Bryan startted his own ppartnership, Oakcliff Capital, in 2004 inn order to invesst his family’s capital and thee capital of partners and CEOs of the pprivate equity ffirm his father founded. In 20010, Bryan partnered wiith Glenn Gre enberg to starrt Brave Warrrior, but has rreturned to Oakcliff full--time because he found inveesting only in llarger U.S. com mpanies to be confining. Bryan is a graaduate of Yale University.
“Experiencee shows that the highest return ns come from m the investments with the low west rrisk of perma anent loss att the time the in nvestment wa as m made. That is i not what they t tteach in business schooll…”
What goals The Manuall of Ideas: Telll us a little aboout the genesis of your firm. W did you havee at the outset, and what operrating principlees have guidedd you since then? ff was started inn 2004 in ordeer to invest cappital for my Bryan Lawrrence: Oakcliff family and ou ur business paartners. My fam mily’s and mosst of my partneers’ wealth comes from a private equiity firm that innvests in energgy companies. So a goal ginning has beeen to diversifyy into non-eneergy investmennts (though from the beg sometimes ou ur knowledge oof the energy iindustry has m made it hard to pass up on things that we w see in the ppublic market)). Another goaal is to maxim mize returns while taking as little risk ass possible. If yyou look at how w to do this, yyou quickly come to conccentrated valuee investing as tthe most sensibble way, especcially on an after-tax basiis. One of the t best advanntages you cann have as an innvestor is patieent capital, and so we haave done everyything that we can to be ablee to stand at thhe plate all night. My fam mily owns rouughly 65% of O Oakcliff, and w we consider ouur capital to be permanentt. Our partnerss have all beenn known to us ffor decades, annd have the same goals th hat we do. Theere has not beeen and never w will be a markeeting effort. When new peeople enquire aabout becominng Oakcliff parrtners, we thinnk carefully about taking them on. We have found thhat asking forr a two-year loock-up is a We also have found that smart test off someone’s coommitment to our strategy. W people who like l to talk wiith us about buusinesses are uusually great ppartners, as they are likelly to think lonng term, and also can be greeat sources of investment ideas. We on nly need a couuple of ideas a year, and so a partner whoo comes up with one of them, or whho helps us thhink through ssomething, is adding an mount of value to the partnersship. enormous am Another principle is thhat this really iss our money. S So we do not ddo anything c financiall distress, whiich we definee as being forrced to do that might cause something when w we don’’t want to doo it. This rulles out leveraage at the partnership level, and makkes us suspicioous of compannies with too m much debt. Experience shows that the highest returnns come from the investments with the lowest risk of o permanent looss at the timee the investmennt was made. T That is not what they teeach in busine ss school, butt that is what we have founnd, in both energy and no on-energy.
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Our goaal is for the partnership to beat the market by double-digit percentages, which it has done overall against the S& &P. Net of alll fees and urns to limitedd partners havee been 10% annnualized. Moree than 90% expenses, retu of these retu urns have beeen unrealized or long-term m gains, and they were achieved with h cash balancees that ranged from zero to 770% of the porrtfolio. We weren’t smarrt enough to hoold onto our caash until the boottom, but the experience of living thro ough the crashh makes us evven more certaain that we waant to own good businessses, have a cleear sense of hoow much cashh they generatee, and have no way for th he bank to takee the keys awayy. It’s just too ppainful to live otherwise. MOI: Help us u understand tthe kind of inveestor you are, pperhaps by higghlighting a couple of examples of com mpanies you hhave invested iin or decided tto pass up. What are the key criteria yoou employ wheen making an innvestment decision?
“At the core of our investment process p are five f basic questtions: (i) do we w uunderstand the t business;; (ii) iss it a good bu usiness; (iii)) is it run by peop ple who act like l oowners; (iv) is it cheap; and (v) why is i it cheap.”
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A the core of our investmennt process are five basic queestions that Lawrence: At will be familiiar to most vallue investors: ((i) do we underrstand the businness; (ii) is it a good bussiness; (iii) is iit run by peoplle who act likee owners; (iv) iis it cheap; and (v) why y is it cheap. T To get these qquestions answ wered positiveely, we are willing to lo ook at small annd big compaanies, as well as overseas. O Our capital totals $55 miillion today, w which means thhat we are ablee to look at a bbroad range of equity inv vestments, as w well as optionns and debt insstruments that can create interesting rissk/reward situaations. One exaample was Dr. Reddy’s Labooratories, an Inndian companyy that sells drugs in developing countrries, and develops challengees to the patennts of large ug companies. The companny has an atttractive businness model Western dru because Indiaan researchers are very high quality but cosst 80% less thaan Western researchers, and developinng country dem mand for phaarmaceuticals iis growing was one of rapidly. The company sounnds like it has a silly name, bbut Dr. Reddy w pected businesssmen in India, and his familyy was a significcant owner the most resp of the compaany. In mid-20005, the comppany looked ccheap. The braanded drug business generated predictaable cash flow ws worth $18 pper share, and a portfolio of twelve pattent challengess was worth $5-8 per share assuming a 300% success rate, compareed to a historiical success raate of 70%. Inncluding $2 peer share of cash, intrinsicc value was $225-28 per share, compared too the market prrice of $17 per share. An n unlevered b alance sheet, strong free caash flows, and low share price relativee to the value oof branded bussiness looked llike a pretty goood margin of safety, and there was allso a decent ccase to be madde that the low w valuation would be temporary. Pateent challenges require threee to four yearrs of legal ore success or ffailure in courtt. This was obsscuring the cassh flows of expense befo the branded drug businesss. The compaany had recenttly lost its chhallenge of Prozac’s pateent, which waas the largest ppotential pay-off in its porttfolio. This reduced inveestor confidencce about the remaining tweelve challengees. Finally, India had reccently agreed too begin respeccting Western ppatents, causing investors to worry abo out entry into India by Weestern drug maakers. But Weestern drug makers worriied about glob al pricing conssistency had too price at Westtern levels, which were 5-10x 5 Indian pprices, so it seeemed very unnlikely that Weestern drug makers would d gain much shhare. We had a positive answ wer to all five oof our basic questions, an nd the investm ment played ouut happily. Oaakcliff bought at $17 per share in mid--2005, and exitted after 14 moonths at $31 peer share, a longg-term gain of 88%.
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“The option n market did d not appear to understand u how h bipolar the t [Fairfax]] ssituation wa as [in 2006], and was offerin ng two-year call c options to purchase p Faiirfax stock at 1.0x book forr a ppremium equ ual to 0.02x book va alue.”
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Another example was G Greenfield Onnline, which opperated two bussinesses — the world’s largest onlinne market ressearch panel, and the secoond-largest comparison shopping site in Europe. S Scale is imporrtant to markeet research, because it alllows highly sp ecific polling tto be statistically significant (e.g., what do hunters ag ged 30-45 in M Maine think oof Toyota’s neew pick-up truuck?). Prior management had raised cap apital at $16 peer share in ordder to make accquisitions, but had overp paid and undellivered. The new CEO had a strong reputaation in the industry, a laarge option pacckage that wouuld be worth a llot if he fixed tthings, and a very clear-minded approaach to talking about the bussiness. Greenfiield looked n December 20005. The comppany was geneerating 40 cents per share very cheap in of free cash flow, f worth $44 per share at a 10x multiple,, and had $2 pper share of cash. Privatee market valuaation for the coomparison shoopping businesss was $12 per share, bassed on four reccent transactionns. But the com mpany was tradding for $5 per share. Th his price offeredd a good margiin of safety — 7.5x free cashh flow for a business with h no debt. W Why was it cheeap? Investorss appeared to have been disappointed by the grannd promises oof the precediing CEO. Cerrtainly the mmunity was ddisappointed — the investm ment bank sponnsoring the research com capital raise with a buy at $16 per share now rated thee company as a sell at $5 nd Fortune maggazine called tthe stock the 2nnd-worst perforrmer of the per share. An year. It was December, aand many monney managerss wanted it ouut of their portfolios by y yearend. Agaain, we had a good answer to all five off our basic questions, an nd Oakcliff boought at Deceember 2005 att $5 per sharee. We sold twelve month hs later for $113 per share, a 145% gain, almost all of which was long term. A final example is Faairfax Financiial, a propertyy and casualtyy insurance C insurance company with an outstandinng long term reecord of value creation. P&C is highly dep pendent on the character of m management, aas managementt has broad discretion to determine reeserves, and thhus manipulatte current incoome. CEO Prem Watsa was highly reegarded for hiis honesty andd stock-pickingg, and had compounded book value pper share at 337% annually from inceptioon in 1985 0. In mid-20006, Fairfax w was under assaault by the shhort-selling through 2000 community. Poor results ffrom 2000-20005 had convinnced some invvestors that Prem Watsa was lying aboout reserve adeequacy. Investoors were worriied that the ne season wouuld be as bad aas the 2005 seaason, which haad included 2006 hurrican Hurricane Kaatrina. Fairfax was trading att 0.7x book vaalue, well beloow the 1.5x more typical of a well-runn P&C insureer. This was a situation withh a binary outcome. If the reserves were inadequuate, the comppany’s equity would be worthless. Iff adequate, the company’s eqquity might bee worth 1.5x bbook value. m appearedd to be assignning 50/50 oddds to these outtcomes. To The stock market make the inv vestment attracctive, we bougght long-term call options, m minimizing our capital att risk. The optiion market didd not appear too understand hhow bipolar the situation was, and wass offering twoo-year call optiions to purchaase Fairfax x book for a ppremium equal to 0.02x bookk value. Oakcliff bought stock at 1.0x call options in spring 20006, and sold thhem in the faall of 2006 aft fter a quiet hurricane seaason and stronng operating reesults drove Faairfax’s stock pprice up to 1.3x book. The T position w was equal to 11.5% of Oakclliff’s capital att cost, and appreciated 18x, 1 a very happpy result for oour partnership.
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We hav ve used smaall options positions to ccreate other interesting investments: against the boond insurers (w which worked)), against the investment banks (which h worked slighhtly); for Ameerican Express at the height of concern about dilution (which workked); for Fannnie and Freddiie (which did not work); and for gold (which didd not work). Overall, retuurns from ownning good businesses haave been aboutt 70% of our pprofits, and froom owning opttions about 30%. It seem ms quite attractiive to continuee looking for m mispricings in tthe options markets, as th hey sometimess can be less ppicked-over thaan the stock m markets, and are especially y suited to a sm mall base of cappital like Oakccliff’s. But our preference is to own goo od businesses, and have them m compound oover time. I havve a policy of not discusssing current innvestments brooadly, but therre are several companies that we have owned for yeaars with strong results. b said that all successfull investing is “value” invessting, with MOI: It’s been growth being g a component of value. How w important is thhat componentt for you?
“Often thee great investor works alon ne much of the t time, whicch makes sen nse given the dif ifficulty that two ppeople will have h agreein ng on w which are th he best ten sttocks tto own. But it i is very sma art to ffind a small number of other o hom you resp pect, investors wh and with whom w you ca an share ideas.”
Lawrence: Growth G is very important, esppecially when iit is not capitall-intensive. Without grow wth, you are ddependent on a cheap entryy price, or a vvery smart management team that alloocates capital incredibly weell. Growth maakes things easier. d you generatee investment iddeas? MOI: How do Lawrence: Voracious V readding, talking too other investoors, and lookinng for areas of disturbance in the maarkets that m may create oppportunities. It has been o study the rrecords of thee great investtors, and see how they interesting to generated ideeas. Often the great investorr works alone m much of the tiime, which makes sense given the diffi culty that two people will haave agreeing onn which are s to own. But it is veryy smart to find a small numbber of other the best ten stocks investors whom you respecct, and with w whom you can share ideas. Y You do not have to agreee on everythinng, and their ddifferent perspeectives can enhhance your own thinking g. Oakcliff shhares space wiith two other firms run byy first-class people. I enjo oy having a coollegial environnment in whichh to kick arounnd an idea, but also the freedom fr to makke my own deccisions. MOI: At th he recent VAL LUEx in Zurich/Klosters, yyou made the point that investor redeemptions in latee 2008 and earrly 2009 refleccted at least inn part value managers’ faailure to propeerly communicate and conddition their invvestors for tough times. What best pracctices can you share when it comes to comm municating vestors? with your inv Lawrence: Iff you look at thhe history of vvalue investingg, you will findd that every practitioner has h experienceed big downtuurns. It did noot matter how smart you were in 1929-33 or 1973--74, you got marked-down by 50% or m more. This who had been smart enough to close his ppartnership, includes Bufffett himself, w but still saw Berkshire Hatthaway stock gget cut in half. So why shoulld we have been surprised by the 20008-2009 experience? And should we hhave done anything diffferently to preppare our investoors? To makee matters worsee, you don’t evven need a crisis to see painnful periods of underperfo ormance. Tweeedy Browne ddid an interestinng study for thheir clients in 2005 that looked at ninne value-orientted managers w with great tracck records. were the Superrinvestors menntioned by Buuffett in his Seven of theese managers w famous talk at Columbia B Business Schoool. With the eexception of B Buffett, the nded to underpperform the m market for 30-40% of the tiime. These managers ten
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periods of un nderperformannce lasted for oone to four years. Four yearrs is a long time to underrperform! In the sp pirit of “inverrt, always inveert,” I know a man who m manages the marketing effforts of one oof the big wirre houses. Onee of the ways he makes money is to keep his morre than 10,0000 brokers updaated as to whiich mutual nderperformedd over the priorr six or twelve months. The bbrokers call funds have un the clients wh ho hold those funds, and gett them to switcch into better-pperforming funds. The cllients pay a neew front-end looad to make thhe change, and the broker and the wireh house get theirr cut. It’s easy money, thouggh obviously noot great for the clients.
“Your invesstment thesess are like sticks. Every now and a then the ma arket will tryy to bend them m. If you havve cchosen the wrong w stick, it i will break, and you y will sell at a loss.” l
nd Chris Davvis runs a larrge mutual fuund. Returns have been My frien especially go ood on an afteer-tax basis because he keepps turnover verry low. To keep his inveestors enjoyingg these after-taax returns, andd from being cchurned by the brokers, he spends a llot of time coommunicating about the advvantages of ompounding. H His website hhas a section for investors to educate long-term co themselves, which w is good business for hhim, and goodd for his clientss. It makes interesting reeading. At Oakclliff, we have nnot solved the pproblems of huuman nature, buut there are some things that we do too try to be thoughtful. Firstt, we only com mmunicate which strips outt much of the vvolatility. Secoond, we are results every six months, w ut the likelihoood of a majoor decline. In 2005 and 20006, as we upfront abou reported soliid results, wee repeatedly w warned of the possibility of financial distress. Thiss won us credibbility at the endd of 2008, wheen we called thhe portfolio the most attractive it had eever been, thouugh it had beeen marked dow wn by half. Third, we try y to make finanncial stress not impair decisiion-making byy me or my partners. Forr myself, thouggh most of myy net worth iss in Oakcliff, I keep five years of livin ng expenses ssitting in cashh. For my parttners, I ask thhem to not commit so much m of their nnet worth that having it cut iin half would change the way that they y live. MOI: 2008-09 presented m many challengges for value-ooriented investtors, but it u some of thhe best opporttunities in a llong time. Hoow did the also threw up volatility affeect your investtment process,, and have youu tweaked youur approach in any way ass a result of thee downturn? Lawrence: The T key lesson of 2008-09 foor me is somethhing that a smaart investor told me wheen I was startinng Oakcliff. Y Your investment theses are llike sticks. Every now and a then the m market will try to bend them. If you have chosen the wrong stick, it will break, aand you will sell at a loss. For me, the depths of the crisis weree manageable because it wass clear that ned were good businesses wiith minimal debbt, and they w were trading what we own at a 20%+ trailing free cassh yield. Beingg able to say thhat to myself, and to my partners, wass a calming expperience. Afterr going throughh that, it will bee very hard to tempt me into i owning soomething other than a good buusiness. MOI: Thosee who have “ggraduated” froom analyst to portfolio mannager often point out thaat good ideas are only one piece of the ssuccess equatioon. Skilled portfolio man nagement is inndispensable. How concentrrated is your investment portfolio, do you use leveraage, and what iis your view off short selling?
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Lawrence: We W tend to ownn ten to twelvee businesses, annd keep large aamounts of cash on hand d. Our cash on hand reflects oour inability too find more thinngs to own at acceptable prices. Leveraage makes no ssense — it makkes things movve faster on way down. Whhy would we w want to do annything for the way up and on the w d our partnerss other than geet richer at a ddecent pace? F Finally, we ourselves and have only sh horted somethhing once, andd it was a disastrous experiience. You won’t see us do that again. m reaching MOI: What is the single biggest mistakke that keeps investors from their goals?
“ “Leverage makes m no sen nse — it makes thiings move fa aster oon the way up p and on thee way ddown. Why would w we wa ant to ddo anything for f ourselvess and our partnerrs other than n get richer at a decent pacee?”
N having the right temperam ment or sufficiient balance in their lives, Lawrence: Not to manage th hrough the hum mbling experieence of the m markets. The G Great Crisis found the craacks in a lot of relationships aand the demons in a lot of peersonalities. Buffett talks about the finaancial consequeences of a receeding tide, but we should bout the psychhological conssequences. Cerrtainly the brookers don’t also think ab have to push too hard to gett the clients to change managgers after a badd streak. b have yoou read in recennt years that haave stood out aas valuable MOI: What books additions to your y investmennt library? Lawrence: There T is a lonng list of invesstment books that includes lots of the obvious valu ue investing ppantheon. Otheers that I havve found usefful are the following: Em motional Intellligence, as a waay to think aboout temperament; Politics and the Engllish Languagee, which helps cut through tthe nonsense w written and spoken by maany managemeent teams; Pooor Charlie's Alm manack, whichh is a mustread for valu ue investors; No Excuses, an introduction too an area of phhilanthropy that, like inveesting, interestts me greatly; aand Consolatioons of Philosopphy, which is thoughtful about living a balanced life, and an easy reead in stressful times.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 17 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
550+ Portfolios Withh Signal Value™ V R Revealing the Top T Ideas of Toop Investors ““Signal value” ” as opposed to o “noise.” We present the hholdings of som me of the world d’s top investorrs. We look forr innvestors who have h amassed impressive i tracck records overr loong periods off time. We choo ose these invesstors carefully too avoid the noiise inherent in most 13F-HR filings. The follow wing analysis iss based on Scheedules 13F-HR R ffiled with the SEC S by Novem mber 15th for thee quarter ended d S September 30th, as well as Sch hedules 13G orr 13D and Form ms 3 or 4 filed subsequent to the end of the thirrd quarter. al Rank answeers the questio on, “What aree MOI Signa tthis investor’s top ten ideas right now?” Rather R than ssimply presentiing each investtor’s largest ho oldings as of the rrecently filed quarter q end, thee MOI’s proprieetary m methodology raanks the compaanies in each in nvestor’s pportfolio based on the investo or’s current level of convictio on inn each holding g, as judged by the MOI. Our proprrietary methodology takes into i account a n number of varriables, includiing the size of a position in an n innvestor’s portffolio, the size of o a position relative to the m market value off the correspon nding company y, the most receent qquarterly chang ge in the number of shares ow wned, and the cchange in the sttock price of a position since the most recen nt qquarterly filing date. ple, an investo or might have the most For examp cconviction in a position thatt is only the ten nth-largest p position in succh investor’s portfolio. p This might be the ccase if an invesstor invests in a small compan ny, resulting in n a holding that is simply too sm mall to rank hig ghly based on ssize alone. On the t other hand,, such a holding might rrepresent 19.9% % of the sharess outstanding of the subject ccompany, sugg gesting a high leevel of convicttion. Our eestimate of the conviction lev vel would rise further f if the ssubject compan ny has a 20% poison-pill p threshold, thereby
Top invvestors includeed in this sectiion:
Bill Ackman, Pershing Squarre Chuck Akre, A Akre Capital Zeke Ashton, Centaur Capitaal NEW Jonathann Auerbach, Houund Partners Brian Bares, B Bares Capital Bruce Berkow witz, Fairholme Richard Breedden, Breeden Caapital Tom Brown, S Second Curve Warren Buffettt, Berkshire Haathaway Francis Chou,, Chou Associattes Chase Colemaan, Tiger Globaal James Crichtoon, Scout Ian Cumming and Joe Steinbberg, Leucadia Boykin Curry, Eagle David Einhornn, Greenlight Harbinger Phil Falcone, H Alan Fournierr, Pennant Glenn Fuhrmaan and John Pheelan, MSD Cappital Jeffrey Gates, Gates Capital Tom Gayner, Markel Gaynerr Kian Ghazi, H Hawkshaw Ed Gilhuly annd Scott Stuart, Sageview Glenn Greenbberg, Brave Warrrior John Griffin, B Blue Ridge Andreas Halvorsen, Viking G Global Mason Hawkiins, Southeasterrn Lance Helfert and Paul Orfallea, West Coastt Chris Hohn, C Children’s Invesstment Fund Carl Icahn, Icaahn NEW Robert Jaaffe, Force Cappital Rehan Jaffer, H Partners Seth Klarman, Baupost Eddie Lamperrt, ESL Investm ments Quincy Lee, T Teton Capital Dan Loeb, Thhird Point Steve Mandel, Lone Pine Sandy Nairn, Edinburgh Parttners Mohnish Pabrrai, Pabrai Fundds John Paulson, Paulson & Co.. Boone Pickenns, BP Capital Mark Racheskky, MHR Lisa Rapuano, Lane Five Larry Robbinss, Glenview NEW Alexandeer Roepers, Atllantic Investmennt Wilbur Ross, W WL Ross Ken Shubin Stein, Spencer David Tepper, Appaloosa NEW Tananbau aum, GoldenTreee Prem Watsa, F Fairfax Wally Weitz, Weitz Funds David Winterss, Wintergreen
ssuggesting that the investor has bought as much m of the ssubject compan ny as is practicaally feasible.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 18 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
AAkre Capitaal (Chuck Akkre) C Chuck Akre haas been in the in nvestment busiiness since 196 68. While someetimes viewed as a small capp growth managger, Akre ffollows a valuee strategy that focuses f on retu urns on equity, management qquality and cassh flow-orienteed valuation analysis.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Akre Capital C
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Enstar Group / ESGR American n Tower / AMT Lamar Ad dvertising / LAMR R Ross Sto ores / ROST Markel / MKL MasterCa ard / MA O'Reilly Automotive A / ORLY Dollar Tre ee / DLTR CarMax / KMX Hartford Financial / HIG
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
1,087 21,654 3,830 8,553 4,108 32,817 7,715 6,602 8,307 13,692
83.18 54.26 41.54 71.82 422.83 250.74 55.25 52.72 36.83 30.80
-2% 5% 4% 14% 12% 12% -9% -6% 16% 16%
46 63 1,28 86 1,23 39 56 64 11 6 14 40 47 73 61 3 49 91 75 56
17% 20% 0% 15% 0% >100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Holdings as % of Co. 4% <1% 1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 8% 14% 10% 8% 10% 7% 5% 6% 4% 5%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
9x 58x n/m 16x 24x 15x 16x 16x 22x 8x
8x 49x n/m 14x 23x 13x 14x 14x 20x 8x
1.3x n/m n/m 6.7x 1.6x 8.2x 3.1x 5.2x 3.8x .7x
T Top Holdings s of Akre Cap pital – By Do ollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker American Tower / AMT Lamar Adv vertising / LAMR R Markel / MKL M Ross Stores / ROST Enstar Gro oup / ESGR MasterCarrd / MA Dollar Tree / DLTR O'Reilly Automotive / ORLY Hartford Financial F / HIG CarMax / KMX
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
21,654 3,830 4,108 8,553 1,087 32,817 6,602 7,715 13,692 8,307
54.26 41.54 422.83 71.82 83.18 250.74 52.72 55.25 30.80 36.83
5% 4% 12% 14% -2% 12% -6% -9% 16% 16%
1,286 6 1,239 9 116 6 564 4 463 3 140 0 613 3 473 3 756 6 491
20% 0% 0% 15% 17% >100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
C Co. < <1% 1% 1% < <1% 4% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
K Kimberly-Clark / KMB K L LPL Investment / LPLA P Primo Water / PR RMW T Techne Corp. / TECH
Carter's / CRI Entertain ment Prop. / EP R obil / XOM Exxon Mo Franklin S Street / FSP
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of Fund* 14% 10% 10% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4%
T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
58x n/m 24x 16x 9x 15x 16x 16x 8x 22x
49x n/m 23x 14x 8x 13x 14x 14x 8x 20x
n/m n/m 1.6x 6.7x 1.3x 8.2x 5.2x 3.1x .7x 3.8x
Gree enlight Re / GLRE E RealPage / RP W.R.. Berkley / WRB
$504 million 76%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$4.3 billion
Average markett value
$23 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
1.8x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 19 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
AAppaloosa (David ( Teppper) T Tepper heads Appaloosa A Man nagement, whicch he founded in 1993 after l eaving Goldm man Sachs, wherre he had beenn the head trrader on Goldm man’s high-yieeld desk. Teppeer’s specialty iss in distressed investments annd special situaations. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Appalo oosa
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Citigroup p/C Hewlett-P Packard / HPQ Wells Fargo / WFC Bank of America A / BAC Dean Foo ods / DF Pfizer / PFE P Micron Technology / MU Microsoftt / MSFT Internatio onal Paper / IP Goodyea ar Tire / GT
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Rece nt ('00 00)
from Sep. 30
142,677 105,835 171,319 148,756 1,890 153,711 11,670 227,369 12,390 3,618
4.91 48.67 32.64 14.75 10.35 19.19 11.70 27.06 29.02 14.89
4% 16% 5% 11% 17% 10% 46% -3% 7% 26%
117,50 01 5,84 43 7,46 60 25,06 68 10,76 66 16,56 62 17,76 65 6,04 41 5,40 00 10,07 78
>100% 57% 16% 12% new 0% new >100% >100% >100%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% <1% 2% <1% 1% 4%
Fund* 12% 6% 5% 8% 2% 7% 4% 3% 3% 3%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
11x 9x 12x 11x 17x 9x 23x 11x 11x 21x
9x 9x 9x 8x 13x 8x 10x 10x 9x 8x
1.1x n/m 2.2x 1.3x n/m n/m 1.5x 6.5x 3.0x n/m
T Top Holdings s of Appaloo osa – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Citigroup / C Bank of America / BAC Pfizer / PF FE Hewlett-Pa ackard / HPQ Wells Farg go / WFC Micron Technology / MU Royal Ban nk Scotland / RBS S Microsoft / MSFT Internation nal Paper / IP Goodyear Tire / GT
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
142,677 148,756 153,711 105,835 171,319 11,670 45,917 227,369 12,390 3,618
4.91 14.75 19.19 48.67 32.64 11.70 15.69 27.06 29.02 14.89
4% 11% 10% 16% 5% 46% 27% -3% 7% 26%
117,501 1 25,068 8 16,562 2 5,843 3 7,460 0 17,765 5 12,522 2 6,041 1 5,400 0 10,078 8
>100% 12% 0% 57% 16% new 0% >100% >100% >100%
N New Position ns D Dean Foods / DF F F Flagstar Bancorp p / FBC G General Motors / GM JJPMorgan Chase e / JPM K Kroger / KR M Manitowoc / MTW W
Co. < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% 2% < <1% < <1% 1% 4%
Fund* 12% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
11x 11x 9x 9x 12x 23x n/a 11x 11x 21x
9x 8x 8x 9x 9x 10x n/a 10x 9x 8x
1.1x 1.3x n/m n/m 2.2x 1.5x .5x 6.5x 3.0x n/m
Sold O Out Positions s nology / MU Micron Techn Morgans Hote el / MHGC Mueller Wate er / MWA Safeway / SW WY Supervalu / SVU S
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
AIG / AIG G Becton D Dickinson / BDX CIGNA / CI ancial / CNO CNO Fina Covidien / COV Dana Ho lding / DAN
Medttronic / MDT WellP Point / WLP
Sectorr Weightings * $4.8 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
56%
Median market value
$8.4 billion
Average markett value
$31 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
12x
Median P/E (next FY)
11x
Median P / tang gible book
2.2x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 20 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
AAtlantic Invvestment (Al Alexander Roepers) Ro A Alexander Roep pers founded Atlantic A in 1988. In an interviiew with hedgeefundnews.com m Roepers desccribed himself as ““family-orienteed, persistent, disciplined, d opttimistic and try ying hard to noot take himself (or life’s travaail) too seriouslly.”
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Atlantic c Investmen t Manageme ent
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Raytheon n / RTN ITT Corp p. / ITT Owens Illinois / OI Oshkosh / OSK TRW Auttomotive / TRW Crown Holdings / CCK Lubrizol / LZ LyondellB Basell / LYB Stanley Black B Decker / SW WK PolyOne / POL
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
19,015 10,987 5,182 3,407 7,295 6,120 7,475 21,467 12,632 1,368
52.16 59.84 31.65 37.55 59.53 38.41 113.89 37.95 76.09 14.62
13% 15% 3% 7% 13% 15% 7% 10% 14% 17%
2,30 00 2,90 00 6,05 50 2,00 00 35 50 45 50 12 25 35 50 20 00 79 90
>100% 26% 3% new new new new new new new
Holdings as % of Co. <1% 2% 4% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 12% 17% 19% 7% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
10x 13x 11x 10x 10x 14x 10x n/a 15x 14x
9x 12x 9x 10x 9x 12x 9x n/a 13x 12x
n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m 6.2x 2.3x n/m 4.8x
T Top Holdings s of Atlantic Investment Management M t – By Dollarr Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Owens Illinois / OI ITT Corp. / ITT Energizer Holdings / ENR Raytheon / RTN FMC Corp p. / FMC Xerox / XR RX Oshkosh / OSK TRW Auto omotive / TRW Solutia / SOA S Crown Holdings / CCK
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
5,182 10,987 4,928 19,015 5,830 15,703 3,407 7,295 3,032 6,120
31.65 59.84 69.76 52.16 81.15 11.32 37.55 59.53 24.90 38.41
3% 15% -4% 13% 2% -2% 7% 13% 8% 15%
6,050 0 2,900 0 1,880 0 2,300 0 1,340 0 8,500 0 2,000 0 350 0 750 0 450 0
3% 26% -4% >100% -16% -35% new new -35% new
N New Position ns A A. Schulman / SH HLM C Crown Holdings / CCK L Lubrizol / LZ L LyondellBasell / LYB L
C Co. 4% 2% 3% < <1% 2% < <1% 2% < <1% < <1% < <1%
Fund* 19% 17% 13% 12% 11% 10% 7% 2% 2% 2%
T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
11x 13x 13x 10x 14x 10x 10x 10x 11x 14x
9x 12x 11x 9x 13x 9x 10x 9x 10x 12x
n/m n/m n/m n/m 5.3x n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m
Sold O Out Positions s SK Oshkosh / OS PolyOne / PO OL Stanley Black k Decker / SWK TRW Automo otive / TRW
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
Ashland / ASH China Se ecurity / CSR Del Montte Foods / DLM FLIR Sysstems / FLIR
Harm man Internationall / HAR Kenn nametal / KMT McKe esson / MCK Therm mo Fisher / TMO O
Sectorr Weightings * $1.0 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
94%
Median mar et value
$5.2 billion
Average markett value
$8.2 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tang gible book
4.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 21 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBares Capittal (Brian Bares) Ba B Brian Bares staarted his investm ment firm, Barres Capital Man nagement, in 22000, focusing initially on miicro-cap publicc ccompanies. Thee firm launched d a small-cap institutional i strrategy in 2001 and now manaages assets in tw wo value-oriennted sstrategies. Barees Capital Man nagement is quiite unique in th he institutional asset managem ment world, as it has adheredd to a ddisciplined business strategy, limiting the grrowth of assetss under manageement to beneffit investment pperformance. B Bares is aauthor of The Small-Cap S Adva antage: How Top T Endowmen nts and Foundaations Turn Sm mall Stocks intoo Big Returns. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Bares Capital C Mana agement
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Hallmark k Financial / HALL Winmark k / WINA Internatio onal Assets / INT TL Tandy Le eather / TLF Interactiv ve Intell. / ININ American n Dental / ADPI Stamps.c com / STMP Utah Med dical / UTMD Corporate Executive / EX XBD Dolan Me edia / DM
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
177 174 447 53 658 199 191 101 1,417 419
8.80 34.77 24.77 5.17 36.92 12.93 13.32 28.00 41.31 13.72
-3% 3% 5% 10% 41% -4% 1% 4% 10% -1%
2,39 92 84 47 2,27 77 1,64 47 2,48 89 90 07 1,02 21 33 30 22 29 62 29
2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 2% 73%
Holdings as % of Co. 12% 17% 13% 16% 14% 6% 7% 9% <1% 2%
Fund* 5% 7% 14% 2% 23% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
25x n/a n/a n/a 29x 12x 14x n/a 25x 12x
12x n/a n/a n/a 28x 12x 13x n/a 22x 11x
1.1x 8.9x 2.3x 1.9x 8.6x n/m 4.4x 3.1x >9.9x n/m
T Top Holdings s of Bares Ca apital Manag gement – By Dollar Value e
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Interactive e Intell. / ININ Internation nal Assets / INTL L Winmark / WINA Stratasys / SSYS Hallmark Financial F / HALL Travelzoo / TZOO Stamps.co om / STMP American Public Ed. / APE EI American Dental / ADPI Corporate Executive / EXB BD
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
658 447 174 950 177 720 191 781 199 1,417
36.92 24.77 34.77 46.00 8.80 43.76 13.32 43.49 12.93 41.31
41% 5% 3% 41% -3% 6% 1% 17% -4% 10%
2,489 9 2,277 7 847 7 611 2,392 2 328 8 1,021 292 2 907 7 229 9
0% 1% 1% -28% 2% -2% 0% 8% 1% 2%
N New Position ns D Derma Sciences / DSCI E Emergent Group / LZR M Middleby / MIDD
C Co. 1 4% 1 3% 1 7% 3% 1 2% 2% 7% 2% 6% < <1%
Fund* 23% 14% 7% 7% 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
29x n/a n/a 53x 25x 40x 14x 23x 12x 25x
28x n/a n/a 41x 12x 30x 13x 20x 12x 22x
8.6x 2.3x 8.9x 6.5x 1.1x >9.9x 4.4x 8.0x n/m >9.9x
Sold O Out Positions s cs / PMD Psychemedic Zimmer Holdings / ZMH
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
Holdings as % of
Pizza Inn n / PZZI
Sector Weightings * $395 million 73%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$1.3 billion
Average markett value
$19 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
19x
Median P/E (next FY)
17x
Median P / tang gible book
3.2x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 22 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBaupost (Seeth Klarmann) S Seth Klarman, founder and prresident of Thee Baupost Grou up, is the authoor of Margin off Safety and onne of the most w widely rrespected valuee-oriented investors. Since incception in Febrruary 1983, Thhe Baupost Grooup has deliverred a compounnded aannual return of approximatelly 20%. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Baupos st
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Theravan nce / THRX Alere / ALR AVEO Ph harma / AVEO ViaSat / VSAT V News Co orp. / NWSA PDL BioP Pharma / PDLI Ituran Lo ocation / ITRN Multimed dia Games / MGA AM Regenero on Pharma / REG GN Syneron Medical / ELOS
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
1,665 3,223 495 1,716 47,303 688 360 150 3,372 377
22.50 37.99 13.89 41.25 17.71 4.93 16.40 5.56 37.48 13.66
-10% 4% -5% -7% 22% -21% -6% 0% 14% 34%
13,00 00 3,10 00 2,00 00 10,05 51 19,05 50 5,60 03 1,72 21 2,60 00 1,00 00 1,50 00
new >100% new 0% 0% new 0% 0% 0% 0%
Holdings as % of Co. 18% 4% 6% 24% <1% 4% 8% 10% 1% 5%
Fund* 17% 7% 2% 25% 20% 2% 2% <1% 2% 1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/m 14x n/m 30x 16x 5x n/a 51x n/m n/a
n/m 12x n/m 34x 14x 4x n/a 24x n/m n/a
n/m n/m 6.9x 2.7x 8.9x n/m 3.6x 1.8x 6.4x 1.7x
T Top Holdings s of Baupostt – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker ViaSat / VSAT V News Corp. / NWSA Theravanc ce / THRX CapitalSource / CSE Alere / ALR Enzon Pha arma / ENZN BreitBurn Energy / BBEP Regeneron Pharma / REG GN Alliance One O / AOI Ituran Loc cation / ITRN
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
1,716 47,303 1,665 2,515 3,223 666 1,293 3,372 316 360
41.25 17.71 22.50 7.78 37.99 11.15 22.14 37.48 3.63 16.40
-7% 22% -10% 10% 4% -8% 10% 14% -14% -6%
10,051 19,050 0 13,000 0 16,000 0 3,100 0 9,065 5 4,350 0 1,000 0 8,787 7 1,721
0% 0% new -21% >100% -13% -39% 0% 0% 0%
Holdings as % of C Co. 2 24% < <1% 1 8% 5% 4% 1 5% 7% 1% 1 0% 8%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
A AVEO Pharma / AVEO A P PDL BioPharma / PDLI T Theravance / THR RX
Domtar / UFS Energy X XXI / EXXI Liberty Sttarz / LSTZA Solar Cap pital / SLRC
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *, **
Portfolio size
Fund* 25% 20% 17% 7% 7% 6% 6% 2% 2% 2%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
30x 16x n/m n/m 14x n/m 16x n/m 18x n/a
34x 14x n/m 20x 12x n/m 20x n/m 18x n/a
2.7x 8.9x n/m 1.3x n/m 2.0x 1.0x 6.4x .8x 3.6x
$1.7 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
94%
Median market value
$1.7 billion
Average markett value
$6.6 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
18x
Median P/E (next FY)
17x
Median P / tang gible book
1.8x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es. ***
A large portion of assets managed by b Seth Klarman ma ay be invested in none equity and are there efore not shown in the chart or tables..
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February 28, 2011 – Page 23 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBerkshire Hathaway H (W Warren Bufffett) W Warren Buffettt has built an un nparalleled inv vestment track record over seeveral decades, becoming widdely regarded aas the best innvestor of all time. t Buffett haas embraced a long term-orieented investmennt approach wiith an emphasiis on investing in ccompanies with h durable comp petitive advantaage, high returrns on capital eemployed, and shareholder-frriendly manageement.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Berksh hire Hathawa ay
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Wells Fargo / WFC Comdisco / CDCO Kraft Foo ods / KFT Coca-Co ola / KO Procter & Gamble / PG Washington Post / WPO American n Express / AXP Wesco Financial F / WSC USG / US SG Johnson & Johnson / JNJ J
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Rece nt ('00 00)
from Sep. 30
171,319 35 53,993 149,887 179,988 3,811 54,807 2,785 1,927 167,824
32.64 8.65 30.91 64.55 64.30 451.17 45.53 391.18 18.73 61.11
5% -4% -2% -2% 0% 3% 6% 6% 11% -1%
342,62 24 1,53 38 105,21 15 200,00 00 76,76 66 1,72 28 151,61 11 5,70 03 17,07 72 42,62 25
2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Holdings as % of Co. 7% 38% 6% 9% 3% 20% 13% 80% 17% 2%
Fund* 21% <1% 6% 24% 9% 1% 13% 4% <1% 5%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
12x n/a 14x 17x 16x 19x 12x n/a n/m 13x
9x n/a 12x 15x 15x 21x 11x n/a n/m 12x
2.2x .9x n/m >9.9x n/m 4.6x 3.4x 1.2x 3.6x 6.8x
T Top Holdings s of Berkshirre Hathaway – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Coca-Cola a / KO Wells Farg go / WFC American Express / AXP Procter & Gamble / PG Kraft Food ds / KFT Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Wesco Fin nancial / WSC ConocoPh hillips / COP Wal-Mart / WMT U.S. Banc corp / USB
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
149,887 171,319 54,807 179,988 53,993 167,824 2,785 112,572 197,263 54,787
64.55 32.64 45.53 64.30 30.91 61.11 391.18 76.62 55.38 28.56
-2% 5% 6% 0% -2% -1% 6% 13% 3% 6%
200,000 0 342,624 4 151,611 1 76,766 6 105,215 5 42,625 5 5,703 3 29,110 0 39,037 7 69,039 9
0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Co. 9% 7% 1 13% 3% 6% 2% 8 80% 2% 1% 4%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
N None
Bank of A America / BAC Becton D Dickinson / BDX Comcast / CMCSA Fiserv / F FISV
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sector Weightings *, **
Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of Fund* 24% 21% 13% 9% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
17x 12x 12x 16x 14x 13x n/a 11x 14x 13x
15x 9x 11x 15x 12x 12x n/a 10x 12x 11x
>9.9x 2.2x 3.4x n/m n/m 6.8x 1.2x 1.7x 4.0x 3.6x
Lowe e's / LOW Nalco o Holding / NLC Nestlle / NSRGY Nike / NKE
$54 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
93%
Median market value
$38 billion
Average markett value
$69 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
3.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es. ***
A large portion of Berkshire’s asset value v may be attributed to holdings that a are not publicly trad ded and are therefo ore not shown in the e chart or tables.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 24 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBlue Ridge (John ( Griffi fin) JJohn Griffin waas a merchant banking b analysst at Morgan Sttanley before j oining Robertsson’s Tiger Maanagement in 11987. G Griffin becamee president of Tiger T in 1993 but chose to staart long/short paartnership Blu e Ridge in 19996. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Blue Ridge
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Amazon.com / AMZN Valeant Pharma P / VRX Express Scripts / ESRX Western Union / WU NRG Ene ergy / NRG Covanta / CVA Cablevision / CVC PennyMa ac Mortgage / PM MT BP / BP TAL Education / XRS
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
84,112 11,989 29,991 14,206 5,164 2,614 11,288 479 149,865 887
186.50 40.47 56.77 21.66 20.89 17.04 37.62 18.17 47.93 11.90
4% 43% 5% 17% 7% -1% 11% 0% 9% -26%
2,12 23 8,70 05 5,06 69 10,09 90 3,51 10 8,66 62 3,28 80 1,58 84 5,02 20 12 25
0% 20% 31% 52% new 0% new 0% 0% new
Holdings as % of Co. <1% 3% <1% 2% 1% 6% 1% 6% <1% <1%
Fund* 6% 5% 4% 3% 1% 2% 2% <1% 4% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
58x n/a 18x 14x 8x 33x 19x 8x 8x 36x
42x n/a 15x 13x 18x 30x 15x 7x 7x 35x
>9.9x n/m n/m n/m 1.0x 7.6x n/m 1.5x 2.1x 6.2x
T Top Holdings s of Blue Rid dge – By Dolllar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker JPMorgan n Chase / JPM Amazon.c com / AMZN Apple / AA APL Valeant Pharma / VRX Discovery Comms / DISCA A Express Scripts S / ESRX BP / BP Citrix Systtems / CTXS Western Union U / WU Crown Castle / CCI
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
187,641 84,112 322,963 11,989 11,797 29,991 149,865 13,638 14,206 12,735
48.00 186.50 350.56 40.47 43.91 56.77 47.93 72.63 21.66 43.78
13% 4% 9% 43% 5% 5% 9% 6% 17% 0%
9,453 3 2,123 3 1,128 8 8,705 5 7,033 3 5,069 9 5,020 0 3,065 5 10,090 0 4,784 4
-21% 0% -8% 20% -2% 31% 0% -30% 52% -25%
N New Position ns C Cablevision / CVC C G General Motors / GM H Howard Hughes / HHC Ivvanhoe Energy / IVAN N Northeast Bancorrp / NBN
Co. < <1% < <1% < <1% 3% 3% < <1% < <1% 2% 2% 2%
Fund* 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
10x 58x 15x n/a 20x 18x 8x 31x 14x >99x
9x 42x 13x n/a 16x 15x 7x 27x 13x 59x
1.8x >9.9x 6.0x n/m n/m n/m 2.1x 9.3x n/m n/m
Sold O Out Positions s N NovaGold / NG NRG Energy / NRG S Sohu.com / SOHU TAL Educatio on / XRS
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
Genpact / G Gold Min ers ETF / GDX InterOil / IOC J. Crew / JCG Kroger / K KR
Lululemon Athletica / LULU MastterCard / MA Pfize er / PFE Visa / V
Sectorr Weightings * $6.7 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
46%
Median market value
$10 billion
Average markett value
$34 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tang gible book
2.4x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 25 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBP Capital (Boone ( Pickkens) P Pickens, born in n 1928, was a prominent p corp porate raider du uring the 19800s. He foundedd energy fund B BP Capital in 1997. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of BP Cap pital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Plains Ex xploration / PXP BP / BP Chesape eake Energy / CH HK Transatla antic / TRH EOG Res sources / EOG Weatherfford / WFT QEP Res sources / QEP A123 Sys stems / AONE Gastar Exploration / GST T Dynegy / DYN
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
5,467 149,865 19,899 3,310 27,660 19,018 6,865 1,024 282 727
39.02 47.93 30.43 52.34 108.89 25.65 39.09 9.75 4.52 6.01
21% 9% 17% 1% 19% 13% 8% 2% 5% 7%
60 04 51 11 88 83 2,00 00 18 80 87 75 47 76 46 65 1,17 72 1,39 95
90% 6% 19% 0% new 0% >100% new new new
Holdings as % of Co. <1% <1% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 1%
Fund* 6% 6% 7% 25% 5% 5% 5% 1% 1% 2%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
33x 8x 10x 9x 31x n/a 28x n/m n/a n/m
23x 7x 11x 9x 19x n/a 26x n/m n/a n/m
1.9x 2.1x 1.6x .8x 2.7x 3.8x 2.3x 2.4x 1.8x .3x
T Top Holdings s of BP Capittal – By Dolla ar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Transatlan ntic / TRH Chesapea ake Energy / CHK K BP / BP Plains Exp ploration / PXP Weatherfo ord / WFT McMoRan n Exploration / MMR EOG Reso ources / EOG QEP Reso ources / QEP SandRidge Energy / SD Suncor En nergy / SU
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
3,310 19,899 149,865 5,467 19,018 1,810 27,660 6,865 3,609 70,304
52.34 30.43 47.93 39.02 25.65 17.05 108.89 39.09 8.92 44.90
1% 17% 9% 21% 13% -1% 19% 8% 22% 17%
2,000 0 883 3 511 1 604 4 875 5 1,172 2 180 0 476 6 1,936 6 358 8
0% 19% 6% 90% 0% 0% new >100% 0% -37%
Co. 3% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% 1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
A A123 Systems / AONE A D Dynegy / DYN E EOG Resources / EOG G Gastar Exploratio on / GST N Nat.-Oilwell Varco o / NOV
Anadarko o Petroleum / AP PC Apache / APA Baker Hu ughes / BHI Chevron / CVX EnCana / ECA Fluor / FL LR
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *, **
Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of Fund* 25% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
9x 10x 8x 33x n/a n/m 31x 28x >99x n/a
9x 11x 7x 23x n/a n/m 19x 26x >99x n/a
.8x 1.6x 2.1x 1.9x 3.8x 1.0x 2.7x 2.3x 3.0x 2.1x
Hesss / HES Masssey Energy / MEE Quickksilver Resource e / KWK Schlu umberger / SLB hwestern Energyy / SWN South
$411 million 71%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$14 billion
Average markett value
$32 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
19x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
2.4x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es. ***
A large portion of assets managed by b Boone Pickens may m be invested o outside of BP Capita al and are therefore e not shown in the chart or tables.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 26 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBrave Warrrior (Glenn Greenberg) G ) B Brave Warrior, formerly calleed Chieftain Caapital Managem ment, was founnded in 1984 bby Glenn Greennberg and Johnn Shapiro. T The firm runs a concentrated portfolio focussed on compan nies with high rreturns on capiital and sustainnable competitiive aadvantage. Brav ve Warrior’s lo ong-term perfo ormance record d is believed too feature mid teeens annualizedd investment reeturns.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Brave Warrior W
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Fiserv / FISV F Hewlett-P Packard / HPQ Broadridg ge Financial / BR R Arch Cap pital / ACGL MasterCa ard / MA Ryanair / RYAAY Lab Corp p. of America / LH H U.S. Ban ncorp / USB Comcastt / CMCSA Google / GOOG
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
9,447 105,835 2,912 4,406 32,817 7,372 9,052 54,787 70,563 202,585
63.52 48.67 23.24 90.12 250.74 30.20 89.01 28.56 25.67 630.08
8% 16% 6% 2% 12% -2% 1% 6% 17% 6%
2,59 95 1,66 61 3,63 35 78 83 41 19 3,79 91 1,31 11 3,87 76 6,84 47 15 59
24% new 57% 16% 23% -2% -6% -12% -7% -41%
Holdings as % of Co. 2% <1% 3% 2% <1% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 14% 7% 7% 6% 9% 10% 10% 9% 15% 8%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
14x 9x 17x 11x 15x 18x 14x 13x 17x 18x
13x 9x 14x 11x 13x 12x 13x 11x 15x 16x
n/m n/m >9.9x 1.1x 8.2x 1.9x n/m 3.6x n/m 5.2x
T Top Holdings s of Brave Warrior W – By Dollar D Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Comcast / CMCSA Fiserv / FISV Lab Corp. of America / LH Ryanair / RYAAY R U.S. Banc corp / USB MasterCarrd / MA Google / GOOG G Broadridge e Financial / BR Hewlett-Pa ackard / HPQ Arch Capital / ACGL
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
70,563 9,447 9,052 7,372 54,787 32,817 202,585 2,912 105,835 4,406
25.67 63.52 89.01 30.20 28.56 250.74 630.08 23.24 48.67 90.12
17% 8% 1% -2% 6% 12% 6% 6% 16% 2%
6,847 7 2,595 5 1,311 1 3,791 1 3,876 6 419 9 159 9 3,635 5 1,661 1 783 3
-7% 24% -6% -2% -12% 23% -41% 57% new 16%
Co. < <1% 2% 1% 2% < <1% < <1% < <1% 3% < <1% 2%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
H Hewlett-Packard / HPQ
Approach h Resources / AR REX Bank of A America / BAC Crosstex Energy, L.P. / X XTEX Dell / DE LL
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sector Weightings *
Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of Fund* 15% 14% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
17x 14x 14x 18x 13x 15x 18x 17x 9x 11x
15x 13x 13x 12x 11x 13x 16x 14x 9x 11x
n/m n/m n/m 1.9x 3.6x 8.2x 5.2x >9.9x n/m 1.1x
olas Financial / N NICK Nicho Star Gas Partners / S SGU Tidew water / TDW
$1.2 billion 95%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$8.4 billion
Average markett value
$32 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
3.6x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 27 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBreeden Cap apital (Richaard Breedenn) R Richard C. Breeden, born in 1949, 1 is a form mer Chairman of o the U.S. Secuurities and Excchange Commiission. Breedenn founded B Breeden Capitaal Managementt in 2006. The fund applies a concentrated, activist investm ment approachh.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Breede en Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Steris / STE S Flowserv ve / FLS H&R Bloc ck / HRB Stanley Black B Decker / SW WK ValueClic ck / VCLK Iron Mountain / IRM EMCOR Group / EME Bally Tec chnologies / BYI Zale / ZL LC Hillenbra and / HI
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
2,086 7,277 4,436 12,632 1,256 5,430 2,149 2,143 140 1,394
35.16 130.33 14.54 76.09 15.55 27.13 32.34 40.01 4.37 22.25
-4% 9% 22% 14% -3% 8% 12% -5% 3% 7%
5,06 67 49 96 13,29 92 57 79 1,91 4 1,19 93 3,05 53 2,25 56 7,99 92 4,09 92
0% new 0% >100% >100% new 0% -11% -12% -6%
Holdings as % of Co. 9% <1% 4% <1% 2% <1% 5% 4% 25% 7%
Fund* 14% 5% 15% 3% 2% 3% 8% 7% 3% 7%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
16x 19x 10x 15x 19x 24x 18x 20x n/m 12x
15x 16x 9x 13x 17x 22x 15x 16x n/m 11x
4.8x 8.5x n/m n/m 4.9x n/m 4.3x 5.9x 1.2x n/m
T Top Holdings s of Breeden n Capital – By y Dollar Valu ue
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker H&R Block / HRB Steris / ST TE Helmerich h & Payne / HP Aon / AON N Dun & Bra adstreet / DNB EMCOR Group G / EME Hillenbran nd / HI Bally Tech hnologies / BYI Flowserve e / FLS Stanley Bllack Decker / SW WK
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
4,436 2,086 6,609 17,010 4,236 2,149 1,394 2,143 7,277 12,632
14.54 35.16 62.15 52.93 85.03 32.34 22.25 40.01 130.33 76.09
22% -4% 28% 15% 4% 12% 7% -5% 9% 14%
13,292 2 5,067 7 2,793 3 2,338 8 1,250 0 3,053 3 4,092 2 2,256 6 496 6 579 9
0% 0% -13% -23% -17% 0% -6% -11% new >100%
Holdings as % of C Co. 4% 9% 3% < <1% 3% 5% 7% 4% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
F Flowserve / FLS Irron Mountain / IR RM
None
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
Fund* 15% 14% 14% 10% 8% 8% 7% 7% 5% 3%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
10x 16x 16x 15x 14x 18x 12x 20x 19x 15x
9x 15x 14x 14x 12x 15x 11x 16x 16x 13x
n/m 4.8x 2.2x n/m n/m 4.3x n/m 5.9x 8.5x n/m
$1.3 billion 92%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$4.2 billion
Average markett value
$5.6 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
4.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 28 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
CCentaur Vallue (Zeke Ashton) A Z Zeke Ashton is founder and managing m partn ner of Centaur Capital, C a Dalllas-based invesstment firm. Ceentaur Capital serves as aadvisor to the Centaur C family of private parttnerships using g a value-orientted long/short equity strategyy. Centaur is allso the ssub-advisor to the t Tilson Dividend Fund, a mutual m fund uttilizing an incoome-oriented vvalue investing strategy. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Centau ur Value Fund d 1, 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1
Compan ny / Ticker Calamos s Asset Mgmt / CLMS Cisco Sy ystems / CSCO Terra No ova Royalty / TTT T Lab Corp p. of America / LH H Aspen Insurance / AHL Vonage / VG Blue Coa at Systems / BCS SI Best Buy y / BBY Madison Sq. Garden / MS SG Maxygen n / MAXY
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
340 104,481 321 9,052 2,286 944 1,220 13,024 2,125 123
17.09 18.85 8.49 89.01 29.81 4.26 28.24 33.04 28.02 4.09
22% -7% 9% 1% 4% 90% -5% -4% 9% 4%
30 01 39 95 47 70 6 64 12 25 90 00 7 70 8 88 11 12 31 13
new >100% 63% 0% 67% new new new 12% new
2
Excludes holdings s of Tilson Dividend d Fund, which is als so managed by Zek ke Ashton.
Holdings as % of Co. 2% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Fund* 6% 9% 5% 7% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 2%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
16x 12x n/a 14x 9x 15x 18x 10x 26x n/a
14x 11x n/a 13x 9x 17x 17x 9x 24x n/a
1.9x 4.0x 1.0x n/m .7x n/m 6.7x 4.1x >9.9x .8x
Inclu udes shares underrlying LEAPs and o other option position ns.
1, 2 T Top Holdings s of Centaur Value Fund – By Dollar Value V
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1
Company y / Ticker Cisco Systems / CSCO EMC / EM MC Lab Corp. of America / LH Calamos Asset A Mgmt / CL LMS Terra Nov va Royalty / TTT Vonage / VG V Aspen Insurance / AHL Vodafone / VOD Himax Tec ch / HIMX Madison Sq. S Garden / MSG G
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
104,481 56,002 9,052 340 321 944 2,286 152,356 476 2,125
18.85 27.18 89.01 17.09 8.49 4.26 29.81 29.67 2.66 28.02
-7% 19% 1% 22% 9% 90% 4% 12% 13% 9%
395 5 270 0 64 4 301 1 470 0 900 0 125 5 110 0 1,200 0 112 2
>100% -16% 0% new 63% new 67% -35% 3% 12%
Excludes holdings s of Tilson Dividend d Fund, which is als so managed by Zek ke Ashton.
N New Position ns A Alleghany / Y A American Defens se / EAG A Artio Global Inves st. / ART B Best Buy / BBY B Blue Coat System ms / BCSI
Co. < <1% < <1% < <1% 2% 1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
Fund* 9% 9% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
12x 18x 14x 16x n/a 15x 9x 11x 13x 26x
11x 16x 13x 14x n/a 17x 9x 10x 10x 24x
4.0x >9.9x n/m 1.9x 1.0x n/m .7x 5.7x 1.3x >9.9x
Inclu udes shares underrlying LEAPs and o other option position ns.
Sold O Out Positions s Calamos Ass set Mgmt / CLMS S Maxygen / MA AXY Telular / WRL LS Vonage / VG
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
2
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
Broadridg ge Financial / BR R Diamond Hill Invest. / DH HIL DreamWo orks / DWA Energrou up / ENHD
HC Epocch Holding / EPH Fairfa ax Financial / FR RFHF Staplles / SPLS
Sectorr Weightings * $85 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
55%
Median market value
$2.4 billion
Average markett value
$25 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
2.2x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, certa ain non-U.S. holding gs, and non-equity securities.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 29 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
CChildren’s Investment I (Chris Hohn hn) C Chris Hohn is the t founder of London-based L The Children’’s Investment F Fund Managem ment. TCI runs a concentratedd portfolio thhat has historiccally been heav vily weighted in i industrials. Hohn H has acquuired a reputatioon as an aggressive shareholdder aactivist, most notably n forcing the resignation n of the CEO of o Deutsche Booerse after he rrefused to abanndon a proposed takeover oof the London Stock S Exchang ge. Hohn also agitated a for a saale of ABN Am mro, ultimatelyy pushing it intto the hands off RBS.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Childre en’s Investm ment Fund
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Coca-Co ola / KO Molson Coors C / TAP CBS / CB BS Royal Ba ank Scotland / RB BS CME Gro oup / CME Viacom / VIA.B Walt Disn ney / DIS Visa / V Union Pa acific / UNP WellPoint / WLP
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
149,887 8,470 15,605 45,917 20,294 27,699 82,724 54,043 47,696 25,310
64.55 45.60 22.91 15.69 302.84 45.50 43.56 75.83 97.14 67.40
-2% -9% 20% 27% -6% 15% 16% 8% 5% 19%
4,97 73 6,11 14 2,01 19 1,17 72 28 86 12,34 45 12,20 00 4,66 65 2,02 29 2,35 55
>100% 0% new new 10% -3% -3% -35% -79% -56%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% 3% <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 13% 11% 2% <1% 3% 22% 21% 14% 8% 6%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
17x 12x 16x n/a 18x 13x 17x 16x 15x 10x
15x 11x 12x n/a 16x 12x 15x 13x 13x 9x
>9.9x 5.1x n/m .5x n/m n/m >9.9x >9.9x 2.7x 9.9x
T Top Holdings s of Children n’s Investmen nt Fund – By y Dollar Valu e
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Viacom / VIA.B V Walt Disne ey / DIS Visa / V Coca-Cola a / KO Molson Co oors / TAP Union Pac cific / UNP WellPoint / WLP CME Grou up / CME CBS / CBS S Royal Ban nk Scotland / RBS S
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
27,699 82,724 54,043 149,887 8,470 47,696 25,310 20,294 15,605 45,917
45.50 43.56 75.83 64.55 45.60 97.14 67.40 302.84 22.91 15.69
15% 16% 8% -2% -9% 5% 19% -6% 20% 27%
12,345 5 12,200 0 4,665 5 4,973 3 6,114 4 2,029 9 2,355 5 286 6 2,019 9 1,172 2
-3% -3% -35% >100% 0% -79% -56% 10% new new
Co. 2% < <1% < <1% < <1% 3% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
C CBS / CBS R Royal Bank Scotland / RBS
Compasss Minerals / CMP P Lockheed d Martin / LMT
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of Fund* 22% 21% 14% 13% 11% 8% 6% 3% 2% <1%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
13x 17x 16x 17x 12x 15x 10x 18x 16x n/a
12x 15x 13x 15x 11x 13x 9x 16x 12x n/a
n/m >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x 5.1x 2.7x 9.9x n/m n/m .5x
MastterCard / MA Philip p Morris / PM
$2.6 billion 100%
Median market value
$42 billion
Average markett value
$52 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
5.1x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 30 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
CChou Associiates (Franccis Chou) F Francis Chou arrived a in Canaada from India in 1976. Over the years, he w worked for Belll Canada, Garddiner Watson, aand F Fairfax Financiial. The roots of o Chou Associiates date back k to 1986. Todaay, Chou manaages several invvestment fundss and has bbeen repeatedly y ranked one of the top investtment managerrs in Canada. H He follows a deeep value-oriennted investmennt style.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Chou Associates A
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Wells Fargo / WFC Watson Pharma P / WPI Bank of America A / BAC MannKind / MNKD Overstoc ck.com / OSTK Berkshire e Hathaway / BR RK.A Sprint Ne extel / S Sears Ho oldings / SHLD Nokia / NOK N SK Telec com / SKM
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
171,319 7,388 148,756 482 330 210,308 13,442 10,234 34,127 11,387
32.64 55.75 14.75 3.86 14.33 127,640 4.50 93.03 9.19 17.36
5% 8% 11% -52% -13% 6% 6% 26% -11% -7%
99 98 63 35 4,20 00 2,43 39 2,22 20 0 6,12 23 33 34 3 30 17 70
new 0% 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 7% 8% 13% 2% 7% 5% 6% 7% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
12x 14x 11x n/m 36x 19x n/m 72x 13x 10x
9x 11x 8x n/m 30x 19x n/m 82x 11x 9x
2.2x >9.9x 1.3x n/m >9.9x 2.1x n/m 2.7x 3.8x 3.5x
T Top Holdings s of Chou As ssociates – By B Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker King Pharma / KG Bank of America / BAC Watson Pharma / WPI Valeant Pharma / VRX Wells Farg go / WFC Overstock k.com / OSTK Sears Holdings / SHLD Sprint Nex xtel / S Berkshire Hathaway / BRK K.A Internation nal Coal / ICO
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
3,557 148,756 7,388 11,989 171,319 330 10,234 13,442 210,308 1,939
14.23 14.75 55.75 40.47 32.64 14.33 93.03 4.50 127,640 9.51
1% 11% 8% 43% 5% -13% 26% 6% 6% 23%
6,025 5 4,200 0 635 5 840 0 998 8 2,220 0 334 4 6,123 3 0 2,400 0
-10% 0% 0% -42% new 0% 0% 0% 0% -20%
Holdings as % of Co. 2% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% 1 10% < <1% < <1% < <1% 1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
A AbitibiBowater / ABH A W Wells Fargo / WF FC
None
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *, **
Portfolio size
Fund* 19% 13% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
21x 11x 14x n/a 12x 36x 72x n/m 19x 15x
21x 8x 11x n/a 9x 30x 82x n/m 19x 8x
2.8x 1.3x >9.9x n/m 2.2x >9.9x 2.7x n/m 2.1x 2.6x
$459 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
84%
Median market value
$7.4 billion
Average markett value
$37 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
11x
Median P / tang gible book
2.1x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es. ***
A large portion of assets managed by b Francis Chou ma ay be invested in C Canadian and otherr securities, which are a not shown in th he chart or tables.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 31 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
EEagle (Boykkin Curry) R Ravenel Boykin n Curry IV maanages New Yo ork-based Eaglle Capital Mannagement, whicch started as a ffamily investm ment ppartnership and d has grown to more than $5 billion b in assetts invested in equities. Curry has a long term m-oriented inveestment aapproach and lo ooks for out-off-favor compan nies that trade at a a significantt discount to inntrinsic value.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Eagle Capital C Mana agement
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Coca-Co ola / KO Praxair / PX Aon / AO ON Comcastt / CMCSA Microsoftt / MSFT Wal-Martt / WMT W.R. Berrkley / WRB 3M / MMM News Co orp. / NWSA PepsiCo / PEP
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
149,887 30,359 17,010 70,563 227,369 197,263 4,405 66,170 47,303 100,495
64.55 99.09 52.93 25.67 27.06 55.38 30.37 92.96 17.71 63.41
-2% 4% 15% 17% -3% 3% 11% 8% 22% -3%
6,01 16 3,65 57 8,57 79 20,07 79 11,88 85 6,32 22 7,50 02 3,12 27 16,50 09 7
3% 4% 5% 3% 3% 8% 20% 7% 4% 54%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% 1% 3% <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 5% 5% 6% 7% 4% 5% 3% 4% 4% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
17x 18x 15x 17x 11x 14x 12x 15x 16x 14x
15x 16x 14x 15x 10x 12x 12x 13x 14x 13x
>9.9x 8.4x n/m n/m 6.5x 4.0x 1.2x 9.4x 8.9x n/m
T Top Holdings s of Eagle Ca apital Manag gement – By Dollar Value e
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Comcast / CMCSA Liberty Glo obal / LBTYA Aon / AON N Coca-Cola a / KO Praxair / PX P Wal-Mart / WMT Microsoft / MSFT Altera / AL LTR News Corp. / NWSA 3M / MMM M
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
70,563 10,033 17,010 149,887 30,359 197,263 227,369 13,346 47,303 66,170
25.67 42.19 52.93 64.55 99.09 55.38 27.06 41.71 17.71 92.96
17% 19% 15% -2% 4% 3% -3% 17% 22% 8%
20,079 9 11,778 8 8,579 9 6,016 6 3,657 7 6,322 2 11,885 5 7,392 2 16,509 9 3,127 7
3% -1% 5% 3% 4% 8% 3% -26% 4% 7%
Holdings as % of Co. < <1% 5% 3% < <1% 1% < <1% < <1% 2% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
A American Public Ed. / APEI C CVS Caremark / CVS M Molex / MOLX R Republic Services / RSG
None
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
Fund* 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
17x 35x 15x 17x 18x 14x 11x 17x 16x 15x
15x 39x 14x 15x 16x 12x 10x 16x 14x 13x
n/m n/m n/m >9.9x 8.4x 4.0x 6.5x 5.7x 8.9x 9.4x
$7.4 billion 51%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$23 billion
Average markett value
$52 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
3.0x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 32 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
EEdinburgh Partners P (Sa Sandy Nairnn) S Sandy Nairn fo ollows a value-o oriented investtment style. Hee developed hiss approach durring a ten-year “apprenticeshiip” under ffamed investor Sir John Temp pleton.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Edinbu urgh Partners s
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Zimmer Holdings H / ZMH Cisco Sy ystems / CSCO Petroleo Brasileiro / PBR Applied Materials M / AMAT T D.R. Horrton / DHI Bank of America A / BAC Supervalu / SVU Eastman Kodak / EK Office De epot / ODP Fidelity National N / FNF
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
12,583 104,481 231,599 21,757 4,087 148,756 1,863 998 1,516 3,237
63.73 18.85 38.00 16.47 12.80 14.75 8.78 3.71 5.47 14.26
19% -7% 0% 17% 7% 11% -9% -31% 1% 4%
4,79 92 16,40 03 9,09 96 22,22 20 19,90 00 16,35 59 1 12 2 25 2 22 8
new 14% 7% 2% 0% 6% 35% 0% new new
Holdings as % of Co. 2% <1% <1% 2% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 9% 9% 10% 10% 7% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
14x 12x n/a 13x 85x 11x 7x n/m n/m 13x
12x 11x n/a 12x 15x 8x 7x n/m 91x 12x
5.3x 4.0x 1.8x 3.7x 1.6x 1.3x n/m n/m 2.0x 2.3x
T Top Holdings s of Edinburg gh Partners – By Dollar Value V
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Applied Materials / AMAT Petroleo Brasileiro B / PBR Time Warn ner Cable / TWC C Cisco Systems / CSCO Zimmer Holdings / ZMH D.R. Horto on / DHI ConocoPh hillips / COP Bank of America / BAC Intel / INTC C General Electric E / GE
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
21,757 231,599 25,574 104,481 12,583 4,087 112,572 148,756 123,497 228,437
16.47 38.00 71.89 18.85 63.73 12.80 76.62 14.75 22.14 21.44
17% 0% 9% -7% 19% 7% 13% 11% 5% 17%
22,220 0 9,096 6 4,437 7 16,403 3 4,792 2 19,900 0 3,182 2 16,359 9 10,708 8 10,972 2
2% 7% -1% 14% new 0% -15% 6% -11% -1%
N New Position ns A Assurant / AIZ F Fidelity National / FNF H Hovnanian Enterp prises / HOV
Co. 2% < <1% 1% < <1% 2% 6% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
Fund* 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
13x n/a 16x 12x 14x 85x 11x 11x 11x 16x
12x n/a 13x 11x 12x 15x 10x 8x 10x 13x
3.7x 1.8x n/m 4.0x 5.3x 1.6x 1.7x 1.3x 2.7x 5.1x
Sold O Out Positions s sley / MI Marshall & Ils Office Depot / ODP Zimmer Holdings / ZMH
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
Holdings as % of
Cemex / CX Ford Mottor / F an / HUN Huntsma
Sectorr Weightings * $3.5 billion 81%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$13 billion
Average markett value
$47 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tang gible book
2.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 33 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
EESL Investm ments (Eddiee Lampert) E Eddie Lampert,, founder and managing m mem mber of ESL Inv vestments, is a value investorr who started oout working unnder Bob R Rubin at the arb bitrage desk off Goldman Sacchs. When he leeft Goldman too start ESL in 11988, he receivved the supportt of Texas innvestor Richarrd Rainwater. Lampert L compo ounded ESL’s capital at ratess of more than 25% per annum m for many yeears. His laargest investm ment was the mu uch-publicized d taking controll of Kmart duriing Kmart’s baankruptcy proccess in 2002. L Lampert eengineered the merger of Km mart and Sears in n 2004. He is currently c chairm rman and chieff capital allocattor of the combbined firm, S Sears Holdingss (SHLD). He also a still manag ges his investm ment partnershiip, which holdss a concentrateed investment pportfolio. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of ESL Inv vestments
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Seagate Technology / ST TX Cisco Sy ystems / CSCO CIT Grou up / CIT Gap / GP PS Capital One O / COF H&R Bloc ck / HRB AutoNatio on / AN Sears Ho oldings / SHLD Genworth h Financial / GNW W AutoZone e / AZO
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
6,215 104,481 8,667 14,161 24,076 4,436 5,127 10,234 6,849 11,195
13.72 18.85 43.28 23.05 52.69 14.54 34.39 93.03 13.99 255.64
-9% -7% -8% 4% 24% 22% 22% 26% 6% -6%
3,84 48 6,44 40 3,56 63 2,83 38 7,36 66 40 00 62,22 27 48,18 80 10,86 63 11,23 30
new new 0% new 4% new 0% 0% 0% -10%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% <1% 2% <1% 2% <1% 42% 44% 2% 26%
Fund* <1% 1% 1% <1% 4% <1% 21% 43% 1% 28%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/a 12x 22x 12x 10x 10x 19x 72x 12x 14x
n/a 11x 17x 12x 10x 9x 17x 82x 8x 12x
2.2x 4.0x 1.0x 3.4x 1.9x n/m 7.0x 2.7x .6x n/m
T Top Holdings s of ESL Inve estments – By B Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Sears Holdings / SHLD AutoZone / AZO AutoNation / AN Capital On ne / COF CIT Group p / CIT Genworth Financial / GNW W Cisco Systems / CSCO Gap / GPS S Seagate Technology T / STX X H&R Block / HRB
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
10,234 11,195 5,127 24,076 8,667 6,849 104,481 14,161 6,215 4,436
93.03 255.64 34.39 52.69 43.28 13.99 18.85 23.05 13.72 14.54
26% -6% 22% 24% -8% 6% -7% 4% -9% 22%
48,180 0 11,230 0 62,227 7 7,366 6 3,563 3 10,863 3 6,440 0 2,838 8 3,848 8 400 0
0% -10% 0% 4% 0% 0% new new new new
N New Position ns C Cisco Systems / CSCO C G Gap / GPS
Top 10 as % of portfolio
Co. 4 44% 2 26% 4 42% 2% 2% 2% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
Fund* 43% 28% 21% 4% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
72x 14x 19x 10x 22x 12x 12x 12x n/a 10x
82x 12x 17x 10x 17x 8x 11x 12x n/a 9x
2.7x n/m 7.0x 1.9x 1.0x .6x 4.0x 3.4x 2.2x n/m
Sold O Out Positions s H H&R Block / HRB Seagate Tech hnology / STX
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
Holdings as % of
None
Sectorr Weightings * $10 billion 100%
Median market value
$10 billion
Average markett value
$44 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
12x
Median P/E (next FY)
10x
Median P / tang gible book
2.0x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 34 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
FFairfax (Preem Watsa) P Prem Watsa is the founder, ch hairman and CE EO of Fairfax (Toronto: FFH H), a Canadian property/casuaalty insurance and rreinsurance firm m. While manaaging Fairfax’ss investment po ortfolio over thhe past couple oof decades, Waatsa has built a reputation aas an astute vallue investor. So ome have calleed him “Warren n Buffett of Caanada.” M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Fairfax x
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Overstoc ck.com / OSTK Johnson & Johnson / JNJ J Level 3 Comms C / LVLT Frontier Comms C / FTR Kraft Foo ods / KFT Baldwin & Lyons / BWINB B USG / US SG MBIA / MBI M Research h In Motion / RIM MM Hologic / HOLX
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Rece nt ('00 00)
from Sep. 30
330 167,824 2,437 9,402 53,993 353 1,927 2,408 36,587 5,376
14.33 61.11 1.46 9.46 30.91 24.31 18.73 12.05 69.86 20.61
-13% -1% 49% -3% -2% 3% 11% 1% 20% 10%
3,38 89 6,88 84 139,27 76 18,62 20 5,36 66 97 70 6,79 94 3 30 2,06 65 2 20
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 0% 33%
Holdings as % of Co. 15% <1% 8% 2% <1% 7% 7% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 2% 17% 8% 7% 7% <1% 5% <1% 6% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
36x 13x n/m 19x 14x 24x n/m n/m n/a 17x
30x 12x n/m 23x 12x 16x n/m n/m n/a 15x
>9.9x 6.8x n/m n/m n/m .9x 3.6x 1.0x 5.8x n/m
T Top Holdings s of Fairfax – By Dollar Value V
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Dell / DEL LL Internation nal Coal / ICO Level 3 Co omms / LVLT SandRidge Energy / SD Frontier Comms / FTR Kraft Food ds / KFT Wells Farg go / WFC Research In Motion / RIMM M USG / USG
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
167,824 29,784 1,939 2,437 3,609 9,402 53,993 171,319 36,587 1,927
61.11 15.43 9.51 1.46 8.92 9.46 30.91 32.64 69.86 18.73
-1% 14% 23% 49% 22% -3% -2% 5% 20% 11%
6,884 4 22,702 2 22,578 8 139,276 6 21,308 8 18,620 0 5,366 6 4,512 2 2,065 5 6,794 4
0% -1% -50% 0% -52% 0% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Holdings as % of Co. < <1% 1% 1 11% 8% 5% 2% < <1% < <1% < <1% 7%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
A AbitibiBowater / ABH A E EXCO Resources s / XCO
None
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *, **
Portfolio size
Fund* 17% 14% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
13x 9x 15x n/m >99x 19x 14x 12x n/a n/m
12x 9x 8x n/m >99x 23x 12x 9x n/a n/m
6.8x >9.9x 2.6x n/m 3.0x n/m n/m 2.2x 5.8x 3.6x
$2.4 billion 88%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$7.8 billion
Average markett value
$35 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
2.0x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es. ***
A large portion of Fairfax’s asset valu ue may be attribute ed to holdings that are n not publicly traded and a are therefore not n shown in the chart or tables.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 35 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
FFairholme (Bruce ( Berko kowitz) B Bruce Berkowiitz, manager off The Fairholm me Fund, has beeen one of the m most successfuul value-orienteed investors off the past ddecade. From in nception on Deecember 29, 19 999 through Deecember 31, 20009, The Fairhholme Fund dellivered a cumuulative rreturn, net of ex xpenses, of 253 3%, versus a reeturn of -9%, before b expense s, for the S&P 500 Index. Thhis translates innto aannualized perfformance of 13 3.4% and -0.9% % for The Fairh holme Fund annd the S&P 5000 Index, respecctively. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Fairhollme
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker General Growth / GGP AIG / AIG G MBIA / MBI M Bank of America A / BAC Morgan Stanley S / MS Sears Ho oldings / SHLD St. Joe / JOE Regions Financial / RF CIT Grou up / CIT Berkshire e Hathaway / BR RK.A
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Rece nt ('00 00)
from Sep. 30
19,896 74,675 2,408 148,756 46,933 10,234 2,603 9,785 8,667 210,308
15.76 41.51 12.05 14.75 30.99 93.03 28.10 7.79 43.28 127,640
2% -14% 1% 11% 14% 26% 29% 11% -8% 6%
113,60 00 44,28 86 38,45 53 92,14 40 38,58 82 14,91 18 26,78 85 124,45 57 19,99 97 9
new 35% 20% 30% 6% 2% 0% 74% 29% 20%
Holdings as % of Co. 9% 2% 19% <1% 3% 14% 29% 10% 10% <1%
Fund* 11% 11% 3% 8% 7% 9% 5% 6% 5% 7%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/m n/m n/m 11x 11x 72x n/m n/m 22x 19x
53x 40x n/m 8x 10x 82x n/m 13x 17x 19x
>9.9x >9.9x 1.0x 1.3x 1.3x 2.7x 3.0x 1.4x 1.0x 2.1x
T Top Holdings s of Fairholm me – By Dolla ar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker AIG / AIG General Growth G / GGP Sears Holdings / SHLD Bank of America / BAC Morgan Sttanley / MS Citigroup / C Berkshire Hathaway / BRK K.A Goldman Sachs S / GS Regions Financial F / RF CIT Group p / CIT
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
74,675 19,896 10,234 148,756 46,933 142,677 210,308 85,909 9,785 8,667
41.51 15.76 93.03 14.75 30.99 4.91 127,640 168.04 7.79 43.28
-14% 2% 26% 11% 14% 4% 6% 0% 11% -8%
44,286 6 113,600 0 14,918 8 92,140 0 38,582 2 237,137 7 9 5,889 9 124,457 7 19,997 7
35% new 2% 30% 6% -2% 20% -2% 74% 29%
N New Position ns A AT&T / T B Banco Santanderr / STD G General Growth / GGP
Co. 2% 9% 1 14% < <1% 3% < <1% < <1% 1% 1 10% 1 10%
Fund* 11% 11% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
n/m n/m 72x 11x 11x 11x 19x 10x n/m 22x
40x 53x 82x 8x 10x 9x 19x 9x 13x 17x
>9.9x >9.9x 2.7x 1.3x 1.3x 1.1x 2.1x 1.4x 1.4x 1.0x
Sold O Out Positions s S / RDS.A Royal Dutch Shell Verizon / VZ
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
Holdings as % of
Humana / HUM
Sector Weightings * $16 billion 78%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$12 billion
Average markett value
$61 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
12x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
2.0x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 36 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
FForce Capitaal (Robert Jaffe) J R Robert Jaffe fou unded Force Capital C Manageement in 2002 after a eight yearrs at Steven Coohen’s hedge fu fund SAC Capiital.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Force Capital C Mana agement
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Goldman n Sachs / GS J.C. Penney / JCP Copart / CPRT Bank of America A / BAC First Indu ust. Realty / FR Foster Wheeler W / FWLT Shutterfly y / SFLY Sears Ho oldings / SHLD SL Green n Realty / SLG AutoNatio on / AN
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
85,909 8,759 3,404 148,756 743 4,911 1,217 10,234 5,802 5,127
168.04 37.02 41.41 14.75 11.65 39.48 42.80 93.03 74.10 34.39
0% 15% 11% 11% -44% 14% 23% 26% 10% 22%
10 00 55 50 48 80 1,10 04 1,26 67 21 16 24 45 68 80 14 46 35 50
new new >100% 51% >100% new new 3% >100% >100%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 6% 8% 8% 6% 6% 3% 4% 24% 4% 5%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
10x 24x 19x 11x n/m n/a 54x 72x >99x 19x
9x 21x 16x 8x 14x n/a 40x 82x 98x 17x
1.4x 1.8x 3.9x 1.3x .9x 6.5x 4.8x 2.7x 1.3x 7.0x
T Top Holdings s of Force Ca apital Manag gement – By Dollar Value e
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Sears Holdings / SHLD J.C. Penney / JCP Copart / CPRT C Goldman Sachs S / GS Bank of America / BAC First Indus st. Realty / FR AutoNation / AN SL Green Realty / SLG Shutterfly / SFLY Foster Wh heeler / FWLT
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
10,234 8,759 3,404 85,909 148,756 743 5,127 5,802 1,217 4,911
93.03 37.02 41.41 168.04 14.75 11.65 34.39 74.10 42.80 39.48
26% 15% 11% 0% 11% -44% 22% 10% 23% 14%
680 0 550 0 480 0 100 0 1,104 4 1,267 7 350 0 146 6 245 5 216 6
3% new >100% new 51% >100% >100% >100% new new
N New Position ns F Foster Wheeler / FWLT G Goldman Sachs / GS JJ.C. Penney / JCP L Lockheed Martin / LMT R RAIT Financial Trrust / RAS
Co. < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% 2% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
Fund* 24% 8% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3%
This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
72x 24x 19x 10x 11x n/m 19x >99x 54x n/a
82x 21x 16x 9x 8x 14x 17x 98x 40x n/a
2.7x 1.8x 3.9x 1.4x 1.3x .9x 7.0x 1.3x 4.8x 6.5x
Sold O Out Positions s S Scholastic / SCHL Shutterfly / SFLY SodaStream / SODA TechTarget / TTGT
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
BJ's Who olesale Club / BJ Jack In T The Box / JACK McClatch hy / MNI Sonic Co orp. / SONC Wabash National / WNC
Winth hrop Realty / FUR
Sectorr Weightings * $259 million 75%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median mar et value
$1.4 billion
Average markett value
$16 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
19x
Median P/E (next FY)
16x
Median P / tang gible book
2.4x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 37 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
G Gates Capittal (Jeff Gattes) JJeff Gates has 25+ 2 years of ex xperience identtifying undervaalued securitie s. He started thhe ECF Value Fund in 1996 aafter sspending 10+ years y in high yiield bond reseaarch and sales, including as a director at Schhroder & Co.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Gates Capital C
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Snap-on / SNA Copart / CPRT Vishay Precision / VPG Bed Bath h & Beyond / BBB BY Zimmer Holdings H / ZMH Interval Leisure L / IILG W.R. Gra ace / GRA Dover Do owns Gaming / DDE D KAR Auc ction / KAR Quanex Building B / NX
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
3,572 3,404 224 12,946 12,583 993 2,879 115 2,061 728
61.28 41.41 16.80 50.82 63.73 17.39 39.40 3.56 15.23 19.41
8% 11% -11% 3% 19% 8% 12% 5% 10% 2%
63 31 1,68 88 1,16 63 58 87 53 34 1,93 33 73 36 2,81 2 1,88 87 1,03 39
new 48% 25% 2% 27% 2% new 0% 55% 30%
Holdings as % of Co. 1% 2% 9% <1% <1% 3% 1% 9% 1% 3%
Fund* 6% 10% 3% 4% 5% 5% 4% 1% 4% 3%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
15x 19x 21x 17x 14x 23x 13x 10x 15x 29x
13x 16x 14x 15x 12x 21x 13x n/a 14x 20x
9.0x 3.9x 1.4x 3.4x 5.3x n/m n/m 1.0x n/m 2.0x
T Top Holdings s of Gates Ca apital – By Dollar D Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Copart / CPRT C Solutia / SOA S Blount Inte ernational / BLT Eagle Matterials / EXP Snap-on / SNA Zimmer Holdings / ZMH Interval Le eisure / IILG Darling / DAR D Bed Bath & Beyond / BBBY Gap / GPS S
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
3,404 3,032 744 1,374 3,572 12,583 993 1,694 12,946 14,161
41.41 24.90 15.46 31.08 61.28 63.73 17.39 14.51 50.82 23.05
11% 8% -2% 10% 8% 19% 8% 9% 3% 4%
1,688 8 2,588 8 3,126 6 1,441 631 534 4 1,933 3 2,265 5 587 7 1,287 7
48% -18% -29% -1% new 27% 2% -12% 2% -8%
Holdings as % of C Co. 2% 2% 6% 3% 1% < <1% 3% 2% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
S Snap-on / SNA W W.R. Grace / GRA
Armstron ng World / AWI SG USG / US
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
Fund* 10% 10% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
19x 11x 19x 56x 15x 14x 23x 23x 17x 12x
16x 10x 14x 47x 13x 12x 21x 14x 15x 12x
3.9x n/m n/m 4.3x 9.0x 5.3x n/m 8.7x 3.4x 3.4x
$676 million 63%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$2.7 billion
Average markett value
$4.4 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
3.0x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 38 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
G Glenview (LLarry Robbin ins) L Larry Robbins founded Glenv view after work king for buyou ut specialist Leoon Coopermann’s Omega Advvisors. Robbinss’ hedge ffund utilizes vaarious value-oriented investm ment strategies in i order to gennerate absolute returns. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Glenvie ew Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Life Tech hnologies / LIFE Flextronic cs / FLEX McKesso on / MCK Tyco Inte ernational / TYC CVS Carremark / CVS AIG / AIG G Microsoftt / MSFT Lab Corp p. of America / LH H Baxter In nternational / BAX X Clearwire e / CLWR
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
10,160 6,399 20,504 22,423 44,922 74,675 227,369 9,052 30,902 1,372
54.41 8.42 80.64 47.33 33.06 41.51 27.06 89.01 53.03 5.64
-2% 7% 15% 14% -5% -14% -3% 1% 5% 10%
9,41 18 33,09 95 6,34 49 5,44 41 7,39 93 1,17 75 2,83 32 1,02 25 1,66 65 6,79 98
17% 31% 7% >100% 35% >100% new >100% new >100%
Holdings as % of Co. 5% 4% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 3%
Fund* 8% 4% 8% 4% 4% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
14x n/a 16x n/a 12x n/m 11x 14x 13x n/m
13x n/a 14x n/a 10x 40x 10x 13x 12x n/m
2.3x 3.3x >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x 6.5x n/m 7.8x n/m
T Top Holdings s of Glenview w Capital – By B Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Life Techn nologies / LIFE McKesson n / MCK Express Scripts S / ESRX Fidelity Na ational / FIS Flextronics s / FLEX Tyco Interrnational / TYC Thermo Fiisher / TMO CVS Care emark / CVS Aon / AON N Xerox / XR RX
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
10,160 20,504 29,991 9,620 6,399 22,423 22,927 44,922 17,010 15,703
54.41 80.64 56.77 32.14 8.42 47.33 57.68 33.06 52.93 11.32
-2% 15% 5% 17% 7% 14% 4% -5% 15% -2%
9,418 8 6,349 9 7,515 5 9,067 7 33,095 5 5,441 4,289 9 7,393 3 4,598 8 20,784 4
17% 7% -14% -13% 31% >100% -14% 35% -11% -9%
N New Position ns A Aetna / AET A Apollo Group / AP POL B Baxter Internation nal / BAX C Computer Scienc ces / CSC C Corning / GLW G General Motors / GM
C Co. 5% 2% 1% 3% 4% 1% 1% < <1% 1% 1%
Fund* 8% 8% 7% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
14x 16x 18x 14x n/a n/a 14x 12x 15x 10x
13x 14x 15x 12x n/a n/a 13x 10x 14x 9x
2.3x >9.9x n/m n/m 3.3x >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x n/m n/m
Sold O Out Positions s SFT Microsoft / MS Seagate Tech hnology / STX Talecris Bio / TLCR
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
Air Produ ucts & Chem / AP PD Applied M Materials / AMAT T Bank of A America / BAC Broadridg ge Financial / BR R Comcast / CMCSA Flowservve / FLS
JPMo organ Chase / JP PM Mascco / MAS Omnicare / OCR PHH / PHH DGX Quesst Diagnostics / D Terre eStar / TSTR
Sectorr Weightings * $6.4 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
51%
Median market value
$11 billion
Average markett value
$32 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
3.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 39 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
G GoldenTreee (Steve Tana nanbaum) S Steve Tananbau um founded an nd GoldenTree Asset Manageement in 2000. Prior to startinng GoldenTreee, Tananbaum sspent more thhan ten years at a MacKay Shiields, including g as lead portfo olio manager off the firm’s heddge fund area. Prior to MacK Kay S Shields, Tananb baum worked on o high yield and a M&A transsactions in the corporate finaance departmennt of Kidder, Peeabody. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Golden nTree Asset Managemen nt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Popular / BPOP B KKR & Co o. / KKR Charter Co ommunications / CHTR Sprint Nex xtel / S Chemtura / CHMT Viacom / VIA.B V SRA Intern national / SRX Alpha Natural / ANR LifePoint Hospitals H / LPNT T Jo-Ann Stores / JAS
Price
Share res Owned
Marke et Value ($mn n)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
3,441 11,195 5,324 4 13,442 4,170 27,699 1,583 6,638 1,933 1,598
3.37 16.29 46.44 4.50 17.16 45.50 27.62 55.13 36.68 60.67
7% 15% 19% 6% 7% 15% 35% -8% 0% 1%
4,173 3 589 9 269 9 1,748 8 414 4 339 9 199 9 55 5 84 4 77 7
new new >100% new new 0% new new new new
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of Co. < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
Fund* 11% 7% 10% 6% 5% 12% 4% 2% 2% 4%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
15x 6x n/m n/m n/m 13x 19x 12x 13x 18x
9x 8x 53x n/m 21x 12x 18x 9x 12x 16x
1.0x >9.9x n/m n/m n/m n/m 6.5x >9.9x 6.7x 2.9x
T Top Holdings s of GoldenT Tree Asset Management – By Dollar V Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Viacom / VIA.B V Popular / BPOP B Charter Co ommunications / CHTR Dillard's / DDS KKR & Co o. / KKR Sprint Nex xtel / S Tenneco / TEN Packaging g Corp. / PKG Chemtura / CHMT SRA Intern national / SRX
Price
Share res Owned
Marke et Value ($mn n)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
27,699 3,441 5,324 4 2,608 11,195 13,442 2,623 3,072 4,170 1,583
45.50 3.37 46.44 41.97 16.29 4.50 43.72 29.95 17.16 27.62
15% 7% 19% 11% 15% 6% 6% 16% 7% 35%
339 9 4,173 3 269 9 230 0 589 9 1,748 8 178 8 239 9 414 4 199 9
0% new >100% -73% new new -15% -33% new new
N New Position ns A Alpha Natural / ANR A C CACI Internationa al / CAI C CapitalSource / CSE C C Cedar Fair / FUN C Chemtura / CHMT T JJo-Ann Stores / JAS J
Co. < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
Fund* 12% 11% 10% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
13x 15x n/m 17x 6x n/m 17x 14x n/m 19x
12x 9x 53x 16x 8x n/m 12x 11x 21x 18x
n/m 1.0x n/m 1.2x >9.9x n/m n/m 3.4x n/m 6.5x
Sold O Out Positions s K KKR & Co. / KKR LifePoint Hos spitals / LPNT Popular / BPO OP Sprint Nextel / S SRA International / SRX
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
A. H. Belo o / AHC Bank of A America / BAC Brunswicck / BC Dana Ho lding / DAN Fidelity N National / FIS Silgan / S SLGN
Time e Warner Cable / TWC
Sectorr Weightings * $131 million 74%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median mar et value
$2.9 billion
Average markett value
$11 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tang gible book
2.6x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 40 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
G Greenlight (David ( Einhhorn) D David Einhorn is the founder of Greenlight Capital, a valu ue-oriented, ressearch-driven iinvestment firm m with a markeet-beating loong-term track k record. Since inception in May M 1996, Greeenlight has repported a compoounded annual rreturn, net of ffees and eexpenses, of ap pproximately 20%. David is author a of Fooliing Some of thee People All off the Time. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Greenlight
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Cardinal Health / CAH Sprint Ne extel / S Ensco / ESV E MI Developments / MIM CareFusion / CFN Pfizer / PFE P Einstein Noah / BAGL BioFuel Energy E / BIOF Gold Min ners ETF / GDX Republic Airways / RJET
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
14,739 13,442 7,618 1,303 6,255 153,711 274 85 6,765 319
42.14 4.50 53.29 27.80 28.04 19.19 16.51 0.95 58.98 6.62
10% 6% 0% 3% 9% 10% 18% -45% -4% -10%
10,61 11 55,90 00 9,01 12 5,65 55 13,37 75 23,15 54 10,73 33 7,54 42 3,54 47 3,41 13
62% new 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 0%
Holdings as % of Co. 3% 2% 6% 12% 6% <1% 65% 8% 3% 7%
Fund* 9% 5% 10% 3% 7% 9% 4% <1% 4% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
16x n/m 15x n/a 17x 9x 23x n/a n/a n/m
14x n/m 14x n/a 15x 8x 19x n/a n/a 8x
>9.9x n/m 1.4x .8x 6.4x n/m >9.9x 1.6x .9x .9x
T Top Holdings s of Greenlig ght – By Dolla ar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Ensco / ES SV Cardinal Health H / CAH Pfizer / PF FE CareFusio on / CFN CIT Group p / CIT Apple / AA APL Sprint Nex xtel / S NCR / NCR Gold Mine ers ETF / GDX Microsoft / MSFT
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
7,618 14,739 153,711 6,255 8,667 322,963 13,442 3,132 6,765 227,369
53.29 42.14 19.19 28.04 43.28 350.56 4.50 19.66 58.98 27.06
0% 10% 10% 9% -8% 9% 6% 28% -4% -3%
9,012 2 10,611 1 23,154 4 13,375 5 7,338 8 838 8 55,900 0 11,469 9 3,547 7 7,684 4
0% 62% 0% 0% -31% 0% new 0% 37% 0%
N New Position ns B BP / BP C Capitol Federal / CFFN L LyondellBasell / LYB L P Potash / POT
Co. 6% 3% < <1% 6% 4% < <1% 2% 7% 3% < <1%
Fund* 10% 9% 9% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 4%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
15x 16x 9x 17x 22x 15x n/m 11x n/a 11x
14x 14x 8x 15x 17x 13x n/m 10x n/a 10x
1.4x >9.9x n/m 6.4x 1.0x 6.0x n/m 4.1x .9x 6.5x
Sold O Out Positions s SemGroup / SEMG S Sprint Nextel / S
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
Holdings as % of
Foster W Wheeler / FWLT Oritani Fiinancial / ORIT Ralcorp / RAH Xerox / X XRX
Sector Weightings * $5.0 billion 64%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$3.5 billion
Average markett value
$22 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
1.9x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 41 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
H Partners (Rehan ( Jaff ffer) R Rehan Jaffer ho oned his investtment approach h at Dan Loeb’s activist hedgge fund Third P Point. He joinedd River Run Paartners in 22004 and starteed H Partners shortly thereafteer. Loeb was quoted q in the boook Hedge Huunters as sayingg the followingg about JJaffer: “He is su uper-hungry. He’s H got a good d nose. He’s veery intelligent. So he’s got a ggreat combinattion of having a high IQ, rreally strong fin nancial analytics, a great nosee for value, and d great trader ssense.”
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of H Partn ners
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker M.D.C. Holdings H / MDC Foster Wheeler W / FWLT LyondellB Basell / LYB Boyd Gaming / BYD W.R. Gra ace / GRA Leap Wirreless / LEAP Six Flags s / SIX CF Indus stries / CF Coinstar / CSTR Pulte Homes / PHM
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
1,321 4,911 21,467 985 2,879 1,090 1,741 9,807 1,447 2,972
28.01 39.48 37.95 11.42 39.40 13.92 62.50 137.87 45.47 7.78
-3% 14% 10% 8% 12% 14% 15% 2% -19% 3%
20 00 95 50 20 00 3,10 00 80 00 3,75 50 6,65 55 20 00 0 85 50
new 27% new 0% 0% 0% 0% -33% -100% -77%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% <1% <1% 4% 1% 5% 24% <1% 0% <1%
Fund* <1% 6% 1% 6% 5% 8% 66% 4% <1% 1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/m n/a n/a >99x 13x n/m 3x 11x 16x n/m
44x n/a n/a >99x 13x n/m 96x 13x 13x 27x
1.3x 6.5x 2.3x 1.8x n/m n/m n/m 5.0x 8.7x 1.7x
T Top Holdings s of H Partne ers – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Six Flags / SIX Leap Wire eless / LEAP Foster Wh heeler / FWLT Boyd Gam ming / BYD W.R. Grac ce / GRA CF Industrries / CF Rowan Co ompanies / RDC LyondellBasell / LYB Pulte Hom mes / PHM M.D.C. Ho oldings / MDC
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
1,741 1,090 4,911 985 2,879 9,807 5,011 21,467 2,972 1,321
62.50 13.92 39.48 11.42 39.40 137.87 39.70 37.95 7.78 28.01
15% 14% 14% 8% 12% 2% 14% 10% 3% -3%
6,655 5 3,750 0 950 0 3,100 0 800 0 200 0 300 0 200 0 850 0 200 0
0% 0% 27% 0% 0% -33% -66% new -77% new
Holdings as % of C Co. 2 24% 5% < <1% 4% 1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
L LyondellBasell / LYB L M M.D.C. Holdings / MDC
Coinstar / CSTR FBR Cap pital Markets / FB BCM
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Fund* 66% 8% 6% 6% 5% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
3x n/m n/a >99x 13x 11x 16x n/a n/m n/m
96x n/m n/a >99x 13x 13x 19x n/a 27x 44x
n/m n/m 6.5x 1.8x n/m 5.0x 1.4x 2.3x 1.7x 1.3x
$632 million 100%
Median market value
$2.9 billion
Average markett value
$5.3 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
1.8x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 42 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
H Harbinger (Phil ( Falconne) P Phil Falcone fo ounded Harbing ger Capital Parrtners in 2001 in i order to capiitalize on distressed investmeent opportunitiies. The ffirm has since expanded e into special situatio on investments and other valuue-oriented invvestment strategies. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Harbinger Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Radian Group G / RDN Spectrum m Brands / SPB EXCO Re esources / XCO Crosstex x Energy / XTXI Cliffs Nattural / CLF Harbinge er Group / HRG Constella ation Energy / CE EG Corn Pro oducts / CPO Media Ge eneral / MEG New York Times / NYT
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
981 1,471 4,329 457 13,078 813 6,254 3,758 175 1,550
7.38 28.88 20.39 9.75 96.54 5.84 31.30 49.70 7.58 10.68
-9% -7% 5% 10% 24% -6% 2% 8% 31% 9%
2,42 22 32,14 46 6,96 63 4,50 00 45 50 6,63 33 11 3 2,79 96 16 62 3,74 48
new 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% -25% 0% -69%
Holdings as % of Co. 2% 63% 3% 10% <1% 5% <1% 4% <1% 3%
Fund* 1% 65% 10% 3% 3% 3% <1% 10% <1% 3%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/m 16x 28x n/m 9x n/a 10x 13x n/m 18x
9x 13x 30x >99x 8x n/a 13x 12x n/a 14x
1.1x n/m 3.1x n/m 3.8x 6.1x .8x 3.8x n/m n/m
T Top Holdings s of Harbinge er Capital – By B Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Spectrum Brands / SPB EXCO Resources / XCO Corn Prod ducts / CPO Crosstex Energy E / XTXI Cliffs Natu ural / CLF New York Times / NYT Harbinger Group / HRG Barclays / BCS Radian Grroup / RDN Constellattion Energy / CEG G
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
1,471 4,329 3,758 457 13,078 1,550 813 64,924 981 6,254
28.88 20.39 49.70 9.75 96.54 10.68 5.84 21.40 7.38 31.30
-7% 5% 8% 10% 24% 9% -6% 30% -9% 2%
32,146 6 6,963 3 2,796 6 4,500 0 450 0 3,748 8 6,633 3 875 5 2,422 2 113 3
1% 5% -25% 0% 0% -69% 0% -75% new 0%
Holdings as % of C Co. 6 63% 3% 4% 1 0% < <1% 3% 5% < <1% 2% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
R Radian Group / RDN R
Owens C Corning / OC TerreStarr / TSTR
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *, **
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Fund* 65% 10% 10% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% <1%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
16x 28x 13x n/m 9x 18x n/a 13x n/m 10x
13x 30x 12x >99x 8x 14x n/a 9x 9x 13x
n/m 3.1x 3.8x n/m 3.8x n/m 6.1x 1.0x 1.1x .8x
$1.4 billion 100%
Median market value
$3.8 billion
Average markett value
$14 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
11x
Median P / tang gible book
2.0x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es. ***
A material portion of assets managed by Phil Falcone may m be invested in p private, non-equity or o non-U.S. securitties, which are not shown s here.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 43 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
H Hawkshaw (Kian Ghazzi) K Kian Ghazi co--founded long/sshort investmeent partnership Hawkshaw in 2002. Ghazi loooks for investtments in which there is a ddisconnect betw ween near-term m market expecctations and lon nger-term intrinnsic value. He relies on in-deepth primary reesearch to fform investmen nt theses on ind dividual compaanies.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Hawkshaw Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Electronic Arts / ERTS Corporate Executive / EX XBD Constantt Contact / CTCT T The Knott / KNOT Gold Min ners ETF / GDX AnnTaylo or Stores / ANN SPDR Go old Trust / GLD Abercrom mbie & Fitch / AN NF Universa al Technical / UTII Frozen Food F Express / FFEX
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
6,446 1,417 893 361 6,765 1,392 54,611 5,173 441 83
19.28 41.31 30.74 10.51 58.98 24.01 135.41 59.05 18.11 4.71
18% 10% -1% 6% -4% -12% -2% 2% -18% 7%
89 93 31 9 31 7 88 89 11 7 26 64 5 51 20 01 29 94 1,84 42
7% 0% >100% 19% -2% -19% -2% -1% -49% -9%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% <1% 1% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 11%
Fund* 11% 9% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 8% 3% 6%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
29x 25x 48x 70x n/a 18x n/a 21x 14x n/a
22x 22x 34x 46x n/a 15x n/a 15x 13x n/a
5.9x >9.9x 7.4x 2.2x .9x 2.9x 1.4x 2.8x 4.4x 1.0x
T Top Holdings s of Hawksha aw Capital – By Dollar Va alue
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Symantec c / SYMC Electronic Arts / ERTS Dell / DEL LL Aviat Netw works / AVNW Corporate Executive / EXB BD Abercromb bie & Fitch / ANF F Constant Contact C / CTCT The Knot / KNOT Frozen Fo ood Express / FFEX IAC/InterA ActiveCorp / IACI
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
14,181 6,446 29,784 379 1,417 5,173 893 361 83 3,205
18.58 19.28 15.43 6.26 41.31 59.05 30.74 10.51 4.71 31.93
11% 18% 14% 23% 10% 2% -1% 6% 7% 11%
948 8 893 3 1,029 9 2,139 9 319 9 201 317 7 889 9 1,842 2 247 7
-1% 7% -1% -1% 0% -1% >100% 19% -9% -10%
Holdings as % of C Co. < <1% < <1% < <1% 4% < <1% < <1% 1% 3% 1 1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
F FalconStor Softw ware / FALC
Scholastiic / SCHL
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
Fund* 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
13x 29x 9x n/m 25x 21x 48x 70x n/a 20x
12x 22x 9x 18x 22x 15x 34x 46x n/a 16x
n/m 5.9x >9.9x 1.7x >9.9x 2.8x 7.4x 2.2x 1.0x 2.7x
$155 million 81%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median mar et value
$1.1 billion
Average markett value
$6.1 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
19x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tang gible book
2.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 44 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
H Hound Parttners (Jonatthan Auerba bach) JJonathan Auerb bach is a “Tigeer seed,” having g received an early-stage e inveestment from JJulian Robertsoon.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Hound Partners
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Liberty In nteractive / LINTA A W.R. Gra ace / GRA SemGrou up / SEMG Liberty Starz / LSTZA Valeant Pharma P / VRX Carter's / CRI TiVo / TIV VO Kronos Worldwide W / KRO O EchoStarr / SATS Covanta / CVA
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
20,220 2,879 1,280 20,220 11,989 1,640 1,219 3,013 2,845 2,614
17.41 39.40 30.79 71.90 40.47 28.53 10.41 51.99 33.40 17.04
10% 12% 13% 8% 43% -3% 21% 22% 34% -1%
2,31 2 1,54 43 59 98 44 47 68 83 75 52 1,26 68 25 52 69 99 73 34
28% 2% new 0% new >100% new new 0% 0%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% 2% 1% <1% <1% 1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 9% 14% 4% 8% 6% 5% 3% 3% 5% 3%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
17x 13x n/a 17x n/a 12x n/m 20x 67x 33x
23x 13x n/a 16x n/a 13x n/m 15x 56x 30x
n/m n/m 1.8x 9.9x n/m 8.0x 6.5x 7.4x 1.1x 7.6x
T Top Holdings s of Hound Partners P – By y Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker W.R. Grac ce / GRA TransDigm m / TDG Liberty Interactive / LINTA Ensco / ES SV Liberty Sta arz / LSTZA Compass Minerals / CMP Valeant Pharma / VRX EchoStar / SATS Carter's / CRI C SemGroup p / SEMG
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
2,879 4,046 20,220 7,618 20,220 3,118 11,989 2,845 1,640 1,280
39.40 81.50 17.41 53.29 71.90 95.07 40.47 33.40 28.53 30.79
12% 13% 10% 0% 8% 6% 43% 34% -3% 13%
1,543 3 551 2,312 2 733 3 447 7 326 6 683 3 699 9 752 2 598 8
2% -8% 28% -7% 0% -8% new 0% >100% new
N New Position ns K Kronos Worldwide / KRO S SemGroup / SEM MG T TiVo / TIVO
C Co. 2% 1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% 1% 1%
Fund* 14% 11% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4%
T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
13x 20x 17x 15x 17x 17x n/a 67x 12x n/a
13x 17x 23x 14x 16x 14x n/a 56x 13x n/a
n/m n/m n/m 1.4x 9.9x >9.9x n/m 1.1x 8.0x 1.8x
Sold O Out Positions s Valeant Pharrma / VRX
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
Clearwire e / CLWR DIRECTV V / DTV Google / GOOG
Powe er-One / PWER Rubiccon Technology / RBCN
Sectorr Weightings * $425 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
80%
Median mar et value
$3.0 billion
Average markett value
$26 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tang gible book
5.2x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 45 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
IIcahn Capita tal (Carl Icah ahn) C Carl Icahn is an n activist invesstor with a long g track record of o success agitaating for changge at underperfforming compaanies. Carl ppublishes an acctivist investing g blog entitled The Icahn Rep port at www.ic ahnreport.com m. B Below we show w public equity holdings disclo osed by Icahn Capital LP. Ceertain other enntities controlleed by Carl are excluded.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Icahn Capital C
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Chesape eake Energy / CH HK Amylin Pharma P / AMLN Lions Ga ate / LGF Hain Cele estial / HAIN Biogen Id dec / BIIB Genzyme e / GENZ Mentor Graphics G / MENT Take-Two / TTWO Enzon Ph harma / ENZN Lawson Software S / LWSN N
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
19,899 2,344 837 1,328 16,295 19,523 1,592 1,392 666 1,703
30.43 16.28 6.12 30.88 67.64 75.38 14.52 16.28 11.15 10.41
17% 11% -6% 14% 1% 6% 21% 33% -8% 13%
20,88 81 14,38 82 35,71 4 5,35 51 12,86 60 10,48 80 12,89 96 9,84 45 4,72 24 13,58 82
25% 11% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 68% 3%
Holdings as % of Co. 3% 10% 26% 12% 5% 4% 12% 12% 8% 8%
Fund* 16% 6% 5% 4% 22% 20% 5% 4% 1% 4%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
10x n/m n/a 24x 12x 18x 22x 19x n/m 21x
11x n/m n/a 21x 11x 15x 17x 16x n/m 17x
1.6x 6.8x n/m >9.9x 6.6x 4.4x 8.7x 4.9x 2.0x n/m
T Top Holdings s of Icahn Ca apital – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Biogen Ide ec / BIIB Genzyme / GENZ Chesapea ake Energy / CHK K Amylin Ph harma / AMLN Lions Gate e / LGF Mentor Grraphics / MENT Hain Celestial / HAIN Take-Two / TTWO Lawson Software / LWSN Regeneron Pharma / REG GN
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
16,295 19,523 19,899 2,344 837 1,592 1,328 1,392 1,703 3,372
67.64 75.38 30.43 16.28 6.12 14.52 30.88 16.28 10.41 37.48
1% 6% 17% 11% -6% 21% 14% 33% 13% 14%
12,860 0 10,480 0 20,881 14,382 2 35,714 4 12,896 6 5,351 9,845 5 13,582 2 2,444 4
0% 0% 25% 11% 0% 0% 6% 0% 3% 0%
Holdings as % of C Co. 5% 4% 3% 1 0% 2 26% 1 2% 1 2% 1 2% 8% 3%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
N Navistar / NAV
None
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *, **
Portfolio size
Fund* 22% 20% 16% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 2%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
12x 18x 10x n/m n/a 22x 24x 19x 21x n/m
11x 15x 11x n/m n/a 17x 21x 16x 17x n/m
6.6x 4.4x 1.6x 6.8x n/m 8.7x >9.9x 4.9x n/m 6.4x
$4.0 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
88%
Median market value
$2.7 billion
Average markett value
$6.7 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
22x
Median P/E (next FY)
17x
Median P / tang gible book
2.7x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es. ***
A large portion of assets controlled by b Carl Icahn may be b attributed to entities o other than Icahn Ca apital LP and are th herefore not shown in the chart or tables.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 46 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
LLane Five (LLisa Rapuanno) Y Yale-educated Lisa Rapuano spent ten yearss at Legg Maso on Capital Mannagement and ttwo years as coo-CIO at Matador C Capital Manageement prior to founding Lanee Five in 2006.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Lane Five F Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Learning Tree / LTRE Williams Controls / WMCO DeVry / DV D Capitol Federal F / CFFN American n Public Ed. / AP PEI MedCath h / MDTH ITT Educ cational / ESI Microsoftt / MSFT Corinthia an Colleges / COCO Bridgepo oint Edu. / BPI
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
125 80 3,821 2,020 781 280 2,319 227,369 447 1,014
9.24 10.95 55.18 12.18 43.49 13.77 72.67 27.06 5.28 19.42
-3% 3% 15% 3% 17% -1% 14% -3% 1% 2%
74 44 66 67 8 86 12 29 12 21 40 09 2 23 3 35 79 99 2 26
0% 0% >100% new 17% 0% >100% new 3% new
Holdings as % of Co. 6% 9% <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 6% 7% 4% 1% 5% 5% 1% <1% 4% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
23x 13x 12x 30x 23x 81x 8x 11x 6x 9x
16x 8x 11x 28x 20x >99x 9x 10x 11x 8x
3.4x 5.1x 6.8x 2.1x 8.0x .9x >9.9x 6.5x 2.8x 5.0x
T Top Holdings s of Lane Fiv ve Capital – By B Dollar Vallue
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker MasterCarrd / MA Williams Controls C / WMCO O Raymond James / RJF Learning Tree T / LTRE Ares Capital / ARCC MedCath / MDTH Healthsou uth / HLS American Public Ed. / APE EI DeVry / DV V Republic Services S / RSG
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
32,817 80 4,972 125 3,391 280 2,243 781 3,821 11,524
250.74 10.95 39.46 9.24 17.61 13.77 24.00 43.49 55.18 29.99
12% 3% 21% -3% 7% -1% 16% 17% 15% 0%
30 0 667 7 182 2 744 4 338 8 409 9 234 4 121 86 6 151
-36% 0% -32% 0% -32% 0% -24% 17% >100% -32%
Holdings as % of C Co. < <1% 9% < <1% 6% < <1% 2% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
B Bridgepoint Edu. / BPI C Capitol Federal / CFFN M Microsoft / MSFT T
Bank of A America / BAC Blue Nile e / NILE Centersta ate Banks / CSFL Equinix / EQIX
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
Fund* 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
15x 13x 16x 23x 14x 81x 13x 23x 12x 16x
13x 8x 14x 16x 12x >99x 11x 20x 11x 14x
8.2x 5.1x 2.1x 3.4x 1.2x .9x n/m 8.0x 6.8x n/m
$111 million 55%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median mar et value
$3.7 billion
Average markett value
$19 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
3.1x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 47 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
LLeucadia (Iaan Cummingg and Joe Steinberg) S C Chairman Cum mming and Pressident Steinberg g describe theiir approach in a 2008 letter: ““We tend to bee buyers of asseets and ccompanies that are troubled or o out of favor and a as a result are selling subbstantially beloow the values, w which we belieeve, are thhere. From tim me to time, we sell s parts of theese operations when prices avvailable in the market reach w what we believve to be aadvantageous leevels. While we w are not perfeect in executing g this strategy, we are proud of our long-terrm track recordd. We are nnot income stattement driven and a do not run your company y with an unduee emphasis on either quarterlly or annual eaarnings. W We believe we are conservative in our accou unting practicees and policies and that our b alance sheet iss conservativelyy stated.”
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Leucad dia
1 2 3 4 5 6
Compan ny / Ticker Jefferies / JEF Capital Southwest S / CSW WC Winn-Dix xie Stores / WINN N Global Po ower Equip. / GL LPW Internatio onal Assets / INT TL TravelCe enters / TA
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
4,451 375 389 363 447 161
25.04 100.00 6.97 23.49 24.77 9.32
-6% -4% -3% 1% 5% 147%
49,35 51 2 20 16 13 37 1,38 85 0
2% 0% 0% 0% 0% -100%
Holdings as % of Co. 28% <1% <1% <1% 8% 0%
Fund* 97% <1% <1% <1% 3% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
16x n/a n/m 9x n/a n/m
14x n/a n/m 12x n/a n/m
2.1x .7x .6x 2.1x 2.3x .7x
T Top Holdings s of Leucadia a – By Dollarr Value
1 2 3 4 5 6
Company / Ticker Jefferies / JEF J Internationa al Assets / INTL Global Pow wer Equip. / GLPW W Capital Sou uthwest / CSWC Winn-Dixie Stores / WINN TravelCente ers / TA
Price
Shares s Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
frrom Dec c. 31
Recent ('000)
from Sep. 30
4,451 447 363 375 389 161
25.04 24.77 23.49 100.00 6.97 9.32
-6% 5% 1% -4% -3% 14 47%
49,351 1,385 137 20 16 0
2% 0% 0% 0% 0% -100%
Holdings as % of C Co. 28 8% 8 8% <1 % <1 % <1 % 0 0%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
N None
TravelCe enters / TA
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sector Weightings *, **
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Fund* 97% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
Prrice/ Ta ang. B Book
1 16x n/a 9x n/a n n/m n n/m
14x n/a 12x n/a n/m n/m
2.1x 2.3x 2.1x .7x .6x .7x
$1.3 billion 100%
Median market value
$369 million
Average markett value
$779 million
Median P/E (this FY)
12x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
.8x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es. ***
A large portion of Leucadia’s asset value v may be attribu uted to holdings tha at a are not publicly trad ded and are therefo ore not shown in the e chart or tables.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 48 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
LLone Pine (Steve (S Manddel) M Mandel foundeed long/short firm Lone Pine in i 1997. He prreviously workked for Tiger M Management, G Goldman Sachs and Mars. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Lone Pine P
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Citigroup p/C Schlumberger / SLB Teck Res sources / TCK Express Scripts / ESRX Dollar Ge eneral / DG VanceInffo / VIT Home Inn ns & Hotels / HM MIN Goodrich h Corp. / GR Ctrip.com m / CTRP Equinix / EQIX
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Rece nt ('00 00)
from Sep. 30
142,677 129,349 32,547 29,991 9,977 1,436 1,374 11,469 5,839 4,185
4.91 95.04 55.08 56.77 29.25 32.46 34.19 91.31 39.49 90.99
4% 14% -11% 5% -5% -6% -17% 4% -2% 12%
145,14 43 7,00 04 7,35 59 7,75 56 13,59 93 4,19 93 52 25 4,50 04 4,31 13 4,03 37
new new new 83% 59% 48% >100% 11% new 21%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% <1% 1% 1% 4% 9% 1% 4% 3% 9%
Fund* 6% 6% 3% 4% 3% 1% <1% 3% 1% 3%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
11x 25x n/a 18x 16x 41x 22x 17x 32x 45x
9x 19x n/a 15x 14x 33x 23x 15x 25x 26x
1.1x >9.9x 2.3x n/m n/m 9.2x 4.0x >9.9x 7.8x 4.4x
T Top Holdings s of Lone Pin ne – By Dolla ar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Citigroup / C Schlumberger / SLB Yum! Bran nds / YUM Apple / AA APL Cognizantt Tech / CTSH Polo Ralph Lauren / RL Express Scripts S / ESRX Goodrich Corp. C / GR Teck Reso ources / TCK Dollar Gen neral / DG
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
142,677 129,349 23,919 322,963 23,590 12,310 29,991 11,469 32,547 9,977
4.91 95.04 51.17 350.56 77.73 127.98 56.77 91.31 55.08 29.25
4% 14% 4% 9% 6% 15% 5% 4% -11% -5%
145,143 3 7,004 4 12,347 7 1,715 5 6,507 7 3,471 1 7,756 6 4,504 4 7,359 9 13,593 3
new new -18% -37% -29% 12% 83% 11% new 59%
N New Position ns C Cablevision / CVC C C Citigroup / C C Ctrip.com / CTRP P F Flavors & Fragran nces / IFF iS SoftStone / ISS L Liberty Starz / LS STZA M MasterCard / MA A S Schlumberger / SLB S S Scripps Networks s / SNI
Co. < <1% < <1% 3% < <1% 2% 4% 1% 4% 1% 4%
Fund* 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
11x 25x 18x 15x 29x 22x 18x 17x n/a 16x
9x 19x 16x 13x 24x 20x 15x 15x n/a 14x
1.1x >9.9x >9.9x 6.0x 7.2x 6.1x n/m >9.9x 2.3x n/m
Sold O Out Positions s ces / TCK Teck Resourc Union Pacific c / UNP Urban Outfitte ers / URBN WABCO Hold dings / WBC
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
Activision n Blizzard / ATVI Amazon.ccom / AMZN Career E ducation / CECO O Citrix Sysstems / CTXS Colgate P Palmolive / CL DeVry / D DV Google / GOOG CR Green Mttn Coffee / GMC Invesco / IVZ
Live Nation / LYV McDo onald's / MCD Popu ular / BPOP price eline.com / PCLN N salessforce.com / CRM M SPDR Gold Trust / G GLD STRA Strayyer Education / S Umpqua Holdings / U UMPQ Visa / V
Sectorr Weightings * $12 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
44%
Median market value
$10 billion
Average markett value
$32 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
18x
Median P/E (next FY)
16x
Median P / tang gible book
4.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 49 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
M Markel Gayyner (Tom Gayner) G T Tom Gayner haas been Presideent of Markel Gayner G Asset Management M siince 1990 and EVP and CIO of Markel, a R Richmond, V Virginia-based international property p and caasualty insuran nce holding com mpany, since 22004. Tom has been a discipliined ssteward of capiital on behalf of o Markel shareeholders, and his h long-term innvestment recoord is one of thhe best in the buusiness. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Markel Gayner
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1
Compan ny / Ticker 1 Union Ba ankshares / UBSH Berkshire e Hathaway / BR RK.A Fairfax Financial / FRFHF F Investors s Title / ITIC Anheuse er-Busch / BUD Wal-Martt / WMT Exxon Mobil / XOM EOG Res sources / EOG Teva Pha arma / TEVA Enterpris se GP / EPE
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
299 210,308 8,178 74 87,416 197,263 426,096 27,660 49,107 8,907
11.52 127,640 385.49 32.21 54.90 55.38 84.50 108.89 51.89 63.99
-22% 6% -6% 6% -4% 3% 16% 19% 0% 9%
3,50 05 2 27 79 22 29 26 66 98 87 69 96 7 79 12 22 25 50
0% 3% 0% 0% 99% 6% 9% >100% 36% 49%
Holdings as % of Co. 14% <1% 1% 10% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 2% 14% 6% <1% <1% 3% 3% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
15x 19x n/a 24x 17x 14x 12x 31x 10x n/a
12x 19x n/a n/a 14x 12x 10x 19x 9x n/a
1.0x 2.1x 1.2x .7x n/m 4.0x 2.9x 2.7x >9.9x n/m
Markel acquired UBSH U shares in con nnection with a merrger of a Markel subsidiary with First M Market Bank, a privvate company in which Markel was a shareholder.
T Top Holdings s of Markel Gayner G – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Berkshire Hathaway / BRK K.A CarMax / KMX Fairfax Fin nancial / FRFHF Brookfield Asset / BAM Diageo / DEO D Walt Disne ey / DIS Exxon Mobil / XOM Marriott / MAR M Wal-Mart / WMT UPS / UPS S
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
210,308 8,307 8,178 38,211 48,590 82,724 426,096 14,905 197,263 75,624
127,640 36.83 385.49 32.53 78.06 43.56 84.50 40.92 55.38 76.47
6% 16% -6% -2% 5% 16% 16% -1% 3% 5%
2 5,219 9 279 9 3,094 4 1,253 3 1,487 7 696 6 1,417 7 987 7 705 5
3% -1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 0% 6% 0%
N New Position ns A AbitibiBowater / ABH A C Clorox / CLX K Kimberly-Clark / KMB K
Co. < <1% 2% 1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
Fund* 14% 10% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
19x 22x n/a n/a 15x 17x 12x 29x 14x 18x
19x 20x n/a n/a 14x 15x 10x 23x 12x 16x
2.1x 3.8x 1.2x 4.4x n/m >9.9x 2.9x n/m 4.0x >9.9x
Sold O Out Positions s Visa / V on / WU Western Unio
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
Comcast / CMCSA Microsoftt / MSFT
Nestlle / NSRGY Pre-P Paid Legal / PPD D
Sector Weightings *, ** $1.9 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
55%
Median market value
$24 billion
Average markett value
$51 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tang gible book
3.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es. ***
A large portion of Markel Corp.’s ass set value may be atttributed to holdings s th hat are not publicly y traded and are the erefore not shown in i the chart or table es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 50 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
M MHR (Markk Rachesky)) M Mark Rachesky y worked for Carl C Icahn from m 1990 to 1996.. He subsequenntly founded M MHR Fund Mannagement, whiich focuses oon inefficient market m sectors, including speccial situation eq quities and disttressed investm ments. He runs a concentratedd portfolio.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of MHR Fund Manage ement
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Lions Ga ate / LGF Loral Spa ace / LORL Key Enerrgy Services / KE EG Leap Wirreless / LEAP Pride Inte ernational / PDE Seahawk k Drilling / HAWK K Omega Navigation N / ONA AV L-1 Identtity / ID MetroPC CS / PCS Rand Log gistics / RLOG
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
837 1,636 1,991 1,090 7,073 53 19 1,115 4,753 90
6.12 78.91 14.08 13.92 40.25 4.40 1.19 11.92 13.41 6.70
-6% 3% 8% 14% 22% -51% -7% 0% 6% 38%
39,40 02 8,13 30 16,66 66 15,53 38 12,83 32 1,17 74 1,35 58 6,93 36 12,82 20 46 62
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Holdings as % of Co. 29% 39% 12% 20% 7% 10% 8% 7% 4% 3%
Fund* 11% 30% 11% 10% 24% <1% <1% 4% 8% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/a n/a n/m n/m 15x n/a n/a n/m 20x 35x
n/a n/a 25x n/m 12x n/a n/a >99x 14x 17x
n/m 3.3x 3.7x n/m 1.6x .1x .1x n/m >9.9x 3.2x
T Top Holdings s of MHR Fun nd Managem ment – By Do ollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Loral Spac ce / LORL Pride Interrnational / PDE Lions Gate e / LGF Key Energ gy Services / KEG G Leap Wire eless / LEAP MetroPCS S / PCS L-1 Identitty / ID M & F Worldwide / MFW Seahawk Drilling / HAWK Rand Logiistics / RLOG
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
1,636 7,073 837 1,991 1,090 4,753 1,115 494 53 90
78.91 40.25 6.12 14.08 13.92 13.41 11.92 25.54 4.40 6.70
3% 22% -6% 8% 14% 6% 0% 11% -51% 38%
8,130 0 12,832 2 39,402 2 16,666 6 15,538 8 12,820 0 6,936 6 747 7 1,174 4 462 2
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -10% 0% 0%
Holdings as % of C Co. 3 39% 7% 2 29% 1 2% 2 20% 4% 7% 4% 1 0% 3%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
N None
None
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Fund* 30% 24% 11% 11% 10% 8% 4% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
n/a 15x n/a n/m n/m 20x n/m n/a n/a 35x
n/a 12x n/a 25x n/m 14x >99x n/a n/a 17x
3.3x 1.6x n/m 3.7x n/m >9.9x n/m n/m .1x 3.2x
$2.1 billion 100%
Median market value
$963 million
Average markett value
$2.1 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
25x
Median P/E (next FY)
17x
Median P / tang gible book
3.2x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 51 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
M MSD Capitaal (Glenn Fuuhrman andd John Phela lan) G Glenn Fuhrman n and John Pheelan are co-man naging partnerss and co-foundders of MSD, hhaving teamed up with Michaael Dell to m manage his perrsonal capital in n the late 1990s. Fuhrman preeviously spent ten years at G Goldman Sachs,, where he wass head of thhe Special Investments Grou up. Phelan prev viously spent five years at Edddie Lampert’s ESL Investmeents.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of MSD Capital C
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Energy XXI X / EXXI Asbury Automotive A / ABG G Macquarrie Infrastr. / MIC Journal Comms C / JRN Wright Ex xpress / WXS School Specialty S / SCHS DineEquity / DIN EchoStarr / SATS Domino's s Pizza / DPZ Sunstone e Hotel / SHO
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
4,619 599 1,134 336 2,046 306 1,060 2,845 1,029 1,281
32.24 18.30 24.80 5.97 53.45 16.20 58.81 33.40 17.14 10.90
17% -1% 17% 18% 16% 16% 19% 34% 7% 6%
4,97 73 3,68 86 3,53 32 3,77 72 1,73 37 2,78 85 2,51 2 3,67 71 4,74 44 4,15 59
98% 0% 4% new 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 0%
Holdings as % of Co. 3% 11% 8% 7% 5% 15% 14% 4% 8% 4%
Fund* 16% 7% 9% 2% 9% 4% 15% 12% 8% 4%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
50x 13x 8x 15x 16x n/m 16x 67x 13x n/m
19x 10x 9x 11x 14x n/m 16x 56x 12x 61x
5.0x 2.1x n/m 3.6x n/m n/m n/m 1.1x n/m 1.4x
T Top Holdings s of MSD Cap pital – By Do ollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Energy XX XI / EXXI DineEquity y / DIN EchoStar / SATS Wright Exp press / WXS Macquarie e Infrastr. / MIC Domino's Pizza / DPZ Asbury Au utomotive / ABG Tyler Tech h / TYL Nalco Hold ding / NLC Sunstone Hotel / SHO
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
4,619 1,060 2,845 2,046 1,134 1,029 599 685 3,741 1,281
32.24 58.81 33.40 53.45 24.80 17.14 18.30 21.25 27.04 10.90
17% 19% 34% 16% 17% 7% -1% 2% -15% 6%
4,973 3 2,512 2 3,671 1,737 7 3,532 2 4,744 4 3,686 6 2,527 7 1,915 5 4,159 9
98% 0% 0% 0% 4% 26% 0% -17% -7% 0%
Holdings as % of C Co. 3% 1 4% 4% 5% 8% 8% 1 1% 8% 1% 4%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
JJournal Communications / JRN
None
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
Fund* 16% 15% 12% 9% 9% 8% 7% 5% 5% 4%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
50x 16x 67x 16x 8x 13x 13x 31x 16x n/m
19x 16x 56x 14x 9x 12x 10x 27x 13x 61x
5.0x n/m 1.1x n/m n/m n/m 2.1x n/m n/m 1.4x
$1.0 billion 90%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$1.1 billion
Average markett value
$1.6 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tang gible book
3.1x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 52 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
PPabrai Fundds (Mohnishh Pabrai) M Mohnish Pabraai is founder an nd managing paartner of Pabraai Investment F Funds, a familyy of value-oriennted investmennt ppartnerships wiith a fee structu ure similar to th hat of the Bufffett Partnershipps of the 1950ss and ‘60s, i.e. nno managemennt fee and 225% performan nce fee above 6% 6 annual hurd dle rate. Pabraii Funds have a long-term tracck record vastlyy superior to thhat of the S S&P 500 Index x. Pabrai follow ws an investmeent strategy buiilt upon the prinnciples of Grahham, Buffett annd Greenblatt.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Pabrai Funds
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Brookfield Infrastructure / BIP Potash / POT POSCO / PKX Goldman n Sachs / GS CapitalSo ource / CSE Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL Teck Res sources / TCK Brookfield Prop. / BPO Cresud / CRESY Berkshire e Hathaway / BR RK.A
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
2,660 51,207 38,257 85,909 2,515 125 32,547 8,795 924 210,308
23.55 180.00 108.42 168.04 7.78 6.73 55.08 17.49 17.75 127,640
12% 16% 1% 0% 10% -15% -11% 0% -6% 6%
1,77 70 33 35 21 13 11 11 2,81 13 1,98 86 6 2,35 59 1,37 71 0
new 1% >100% 0% 0% -1% 0% 0% -20% 0%
Holdings as % of Co. 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% 11% <1% <1% 3% <1%
Fund* 12% 17% 7% 5% 6% 4% <1% 12% 7% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/a n/a 9x 10x n/m 5x n/a n/a 27x 19x
n/a n/a 9x 9x 20x 4x n/a n/a 30x 19x
n/m 6.6x 2.2x 1.4x 1.3x 1.7x 2.3x 1.1x n/m 2.1x
T Top Holdings s of Pabrai Funds F – By Dollar D Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Potash / POT P Brookfield Infrastructure / BIP B Brookfield Prop. / BPO Cresud / CRESY C Internation nal Coal / ICO POSCO / PKX CapitalSource / CSE Horsehead d / ZINC Terex / TE EX Goldman Sachs S / GS
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
51,207 2,660 8,795 924 1,939 38,257 2,515 662 4,157 85,909
180.00 23.55 17.49 17.75 9.51 108.42 7.78 15.27 38.17 168.04
16% 12% 0% -6% 23% 1% 10% 17% 23% 0%
335 5 1,770 0 2,359 9 1,371 2,484 4 213 3 2,813 3 1,357 7 531 111
1% new 0% -20% -2% >100% 0% 0% -5% 0%
Holdings as % of C Co. < <1% 2% < <1% 3% 1% < <1% < <1% 3% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
B Brookfield Infrastructure / BIP
Leucadia a National / LUK
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
Fund* 17% 12% 12% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
n/a n/a n/a 27x 15x 9x n/m 51x 50x 10x
n/a n/a n/a 30x 8x 9x 20x 15x 17x 9x
6.6x n/m 1.1x n/m 2.6x 2.2x 1.3x 1.9x 2.7x 1.4x
$352 million 84%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$4.2 billion
Average markett value
$33 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
10x
Median P / tang gible book
1.9x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 53 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
PPaulson & Co. C (John Paaulson) JJohn Paulson fo ounded his firm m with $2 milliion in 1994. Hee gained notoriiety by profitinng hugely from m the crisis of 22008. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Paulso on & Co.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 40,123 2,991 1,054 3,698 2,790 3,557 2,106 7,385 422 128
Compan ny / Ticker Anadarko o Petroleum / AP PC CommSc cope / CTV Martek Biosciences B / MAT TK Del Montte Foods / DLM J. Crew / JCG King Pha arma / KG Howard Hughes H / HHC McAfee / MFE Wilmingto on Trust / WL SuperMe edia / SPMD
Price Recent from Dec. D 31 ($) 80.96 6% 31.48 0% 31.45 0% 18.94 1% 43.63 1% 14.23 1% 55.83 3% 47.91 3% 4.62 6% 8.28 -5%
Sharres Owned Recen nt from Sep. 30 ('000 0) 21,27 78 59% 9,00 00 new 3,00 00 new 19,15 50 new 6,00 00 new 20,00 00 new 2,19 94 new 8,00 00 new 5,13 35 new 2,60 08 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 4% 5% 9% <1% 9% <1% 10% 1% 9% <1% 8% <1% 6% <1% 5% 1% 6% <1% 17% <1%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 35x 24x 18x 13x 19x 18x 13x 13x 21x 19x 21x 21x n/m n/m 17x 16x n/m 13x n/a n/a
Price/ Tang. Book 2.6x >9.9x 3.1x n/m 5.5x 2.8x 1.4x >9.9x .6x n/m
T Top Holdings s of Paulson & Co. – By Dollar D Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 54,611 148,756 142,677 26,350 40,123 13,692 24,076 187,641 15,869 70,563
Company y / Ticker SPDR Gold Trust / GLD Bank of America / BAC Citigroup / C AngloGold d Ashanti / AU Anadarko Petroleum / APC C Hartford Financial F / HIG Capital On ne / COF JPMorgan n Chase / JPM SunTrust Banks / STI Comcast / CMCSA
Price Recent from De ec. 31 ($) 135.41 -2% 14.75 11% 4.91 4% 47.55 -3% 80.96 6% 30.80 16% 52.69 24% 48.00 13% 31.74 8% 25.67 17%
N New Position ns A AbitibiBowater / ABH A B Baxter Internation nal / BAX B BlackRock / BLK B Boise / BZ B Bucyrus / BUCY C Chemtura / CHMT T C CommScope / CT TV D Del Monte Foods s / DLM E Emergency Medical / EMS H Howard Hughes / HHC In nternational Paper / IP JJ. Crew / JCG K King Pharma / KG G M Martek Bioscienc ces / MATK
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 8% 14% 2% 8% 1% 6% 7% 6% 4% 5% 1 10% 4% 5% 4% < <1% 4% 7% 3% 1% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/a n/a 11x 8x 11x 9x 22x 11x 35x 24x 8x 8x 10x 10x 10x 9x 31x 14x 17x 15x
P Price/ T Tang. Book 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 6.9x 2.6x .7x 1.9x 1.8x 1.5x n/m
Sold O Out Positions s McAfee / MFE E Medtronic / MDT M Ralcorp / RAH H Royal Bank Scotland S / RBS Seagate Tech hnology / STX St. Jude Med dical / STJ Teva Pharma a / TEVA Transocean / RIG Veeco Instrum ments / VECO Walter Energy / WLT W Whirlpool / WHR Wilmington Trust T / WL XL Group / XL
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
Share es Owned Recen nt from Sep. 30 ('000 0) 31,500 0 0% 163,861 1 -8% 413,526 6 -2% 40,949 9 0% 21,278 8 59% 43,951 1 0% 21,993 3 16% 23,728 8 0% 34,358 8 17% 40,000 0 0%
Boyd Gam ming / BYD Family Do DO ollar Stores / FD First Horiizon / FHN Growth / GGP General G Mead Joh hnson / MJN Potash / POT d Hotels / HOT Starwood Starwood d Property / STW WD
Sectorr Weightings * $31 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
58%
Median market value
$7.4 billion
Average markett value
$25 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
2.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 54 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
PPennant (Al Alan Fournieer) A Alan Fournier started s his careeer at Sanford Bernstein B in 19 988 and becam me a partner in 11990. He also w worked for Ricch Pzena’s ffirm and David d Tepper’s App paloosa, where he was respon nsible for globaal equities. Fouurnier founded Pennant in 20001. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Pennan nt Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker DaVita / DVA Sensata Tech / ST Fidelity National N / FIS WellPoint / WLP Qualcom mm / QCOM General Motors / GM Citigroup p/C Wells Fargo / WFC Seahawk k Drilling / HAWK K Western Union / WU
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
7,744 5,793 9,620 25,310 97,293 54,760 142,677 171,319 53 14,206
79.67 33.29 32.14 67.40 59.19 36.51 4.91 32.64 4.40 21.66
15% 11% 17% 19% 20% -1% 4% 5% -51% 17%
2,75 59 4,43 37 7,54 40 3,18 83 4,25 50 2,61 18 20,55 55 3,44 40 48 84 7,92 26
24% new 7% 1% 0% new >100% new 0% 9%
Holdings as % of Co. 3% 3% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 1%
Fund* 5% 4% 6% 5% 6% 2% 2% 3% <1% 4%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
18x n/a 14x 10x 19x 13x 11x 12x n/a 14x
15x n/a 12x 9x 18x 9x 9x 9x n/a 13x
n/m n/m n/m 9.9x 5.3x n/m 1.1x 2.2x .1x n/m
T Top Holdings s of Pennantt Capital – By y Dollar Valu ue
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker TransDigm m / TDG Qualcomm m / QCOM Fidelity Na ational / FIS DaVita / DVA D WellPoint / WLP Abercromb bie & Fitch / ANF F Adobe Sys stems / ADBE Western Union U / WU UnitedHea alth / UNH Sensata Tech T / ST
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
4,046 97,293 9,620 7,744 25,310 5,173 17,862 14,206 46,854 5,793
81.50 59.19 32.14 79.67 67.40 59.05 35.39 21.66 42.84 33.29
13% 20% 17% 15% 19% 2% 15% 17% 19% 11%
3,353 3 4,250 0 7,540 0 2,759 9 3,183 3 3,353 3 5,282 2 7,926 6 3,581 4,437 7
-8% 0% 7% 24% 1% -15% 1% 9% 13% new
N New Position ns A Aeroflex / ARX G General Motors / GM K Kronos Worldwide / KRO P Petroleo Brasileirro / PBR S Sensata Tech / ST S
C Co. 7% < <1% 3% 3% < <1% 4% 1% 1% < <1% 3%
Fund* 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4%
T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
20x 19x 14x 18x 10x 21x 15x 14x 11x n/a
17x 18x 12x 15x 9x 15x 14x 13x 10x n/a
n/m 5.3x n/m n/m 9.9x 2.8x >9.9x n/m >9.9x n/m
Sold O Out Positions s merican / UAM Universal Am Wells Fargo / WFC
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
Alpha Na atural / ANR Bank of A America / BAC CONSOL L Energy / CNX Covidien / COV Exxon Mo obil / XOM
Fluorr / FLR Griffo on / GFF Rena aissanceRe / RNR Savie ent Pharma / SV VNT Transsatlantic / TRH
Sectorr Weightings * $4.1 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
50%
Median market value
$6.7 billion
Average markett value
$36 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tang gible book
3.4x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 55 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
PPershing Sqquare (Bill Ackman) A B Bill Ackman, managing m mem mber of Pershing g Square Capittal, is a value-ooriented activisst investor. He runs a concentrated pportfolio with the t largest ten equity e investm ments accountin ng for the vast m majority of hiss long book. Beefore the creditt crunch ddeveloped into a full-blown economic crisiss, Ackman mad de a strong casee for why MBIIA (MBI) and AMBAC (ABK K) were oovervalued and d fundamentally y more distresssed than the maarket had judgeed at the time. On the long siide, Ackman has aapproached larg ge companies, including McD Donald’s (MCD D) and Target (TGT), with prroposals for unnlocking value.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Pershin ng Square
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Fortune Brands B / FO J.C. Penney / JCP General Motors / GM Howard Hughes H / HHC Citigroup p/C General Growth / GGP Greenligh ht Re / GLRE Target / TGT T Kraft Foo ods / KFT Correctio ons Corp. / CXW
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Rece nt ('00 00)
from Sep. 30
9,562 8,759 54,760 2,106 142,677 19,896 1,066 36,749 53,993 2,751
62.67 37.02 36.51 55.83 4.91 15.76 29.25 51.90 30.91 24.95
4% 15% -1% 3% 4% 2% 9% -14% -2% 0%
16,66 69 39,07 76 7,18 88 3,56 68 146,51 14 69,96 66 25 50 7,40 00 19,47 70 7,82 27
>100% >100% new new 0% 0% 0% -48% -30% -28%
Holdings as % of Co. 11% 17% <1% 9% <1% 6% <1% 1% 1% 7%
Fund* 17% 24% 4% 3% 12% 18% <1% 6% 10% 3%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
19x 24x 13x n/m 11x n/m 11x 13x 14x 18x
16x 21x 9x n/m 9x 53x 8x 12x 12x 16x
n/m 1.8x n/m 1.4x 1.1x >9.9x 1.4x 2.5x n/m 1.9x
T Top Holdings s of Pershing g Square – By B Dollar Valu ue
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker J.C. Penney / JCP General Growth G / GGP Fortune Brands / FO Citigroup / C Kraft Food ds / KFT Target / TG GT General Motors M / GM Howard Hughes / HHC Correction ns Corp. / CXW Automatic c Data / ADP
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
8,759 19,896 9,562 142,677 53,993 36,749 54,760 2,106 2,751 24,791
37.02 15.76 62.67 4.91 30.91 51.90 36.51 55.83 24.95 49.94
15% 2% 4% 4% -2% -14% -1% 3% 0% 8%
39,076 6 69,966 6 16,669 9 146,514 4 19,470 0 7,400 0 7,188 8 3,568 8 7,827 7 1,405 5
>100% 0% >100% 0% -30% -48% new new -28% -84%
Holdings as % of Co. 1 17% 6% 1 11% < <1% 1% 1% < <1% 9% 7% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
G General Motors / GM H Howard Hughes / HHC
None
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sector Weightings *
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Fund* 24% 18% 17% 12% 10% 6% 4% 3% 3% 1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
24x n/m 19x 11x 14x 13x 13x n/m 18x 20x
21x 53x 16x 9x 12x 12x 9x n/m 16x 19x
1.8x >9.9x n/m 1.1x n/m 2.5x n/m 1.4x 1.9x >9.9x
$6.0 billion 100%
Median market value
$20 billion
Average markett value
$30 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
18x
Median P/E (next FY)
16x
Median P / tang gible book
1.7x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 56 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
SSageview (EEd Gilhuly and a Scott Sttuart) E Ed Gilhuly and d Scott Stuart were w classmatess at Stanford Business B Schoool. After graduaating in 1986, G Gilhuly joined Kohlberg K Kravis Roberts & Co. in San Francisco, whiile Stuart starteed with KKR inn New York. E Each became a partner of KK KR at the eend of 1994. Th hey continued serving in lead dership roles att KKR until 20005, at which tiime they teameed up to start S Sageview. T The firm follow ws a highly con ncentrated, valu ue-oriented inv vestment approoach.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Sageview Capital
1 2 3 4 5 8
Compan ny / Ticker Arris Gro oup / ARRS Covidien / COV Life Tech hnologies / LIFE Charles Schwab S / SCHW W Baxter In nternational / BAX X SandRidg ge Energy / SD
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
1,684 25,394 10,160 23,239 30,902 3,609
13.63 51.42 54.41 19.45 53.03 8.92
21% 13% -2% 14% 5% 22%
3,84 49 66 66 1,58 86 73 34 2 21 20 05
7% 0% -38% -32% -72% -96%
Holdings as % of Co. 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 28% 18% 45% 8% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
16x n/a 14x 24x 13x >99x
14x n/a 13x 17x 12x >99x
2.8x n/m 2.3x 4.2x 7.8x 3.0x
T Top Holdings s of Sageview w Capital – By B Dollar Vallue
1 2 3 4 5 6
Company / Ticker Life Techno ologies / LIFE Arris Group p / ARRS Covidien / COV C Charles Schwab / SCHW SandRidge Energy / SD Baxter Interrnational / BAX
Price
Shares s Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
frrom Dec c. 31
Recent ('000)
from Sep. 30
10,160 1,684 25,394 23,239 3,609 30,902
54.41 13.63 51.42 19.45 8.92 53.03
-2% 21% 2 13% 1 14% 1 22% 2 5%
1,586 3,849 666 734 205 21
-38% 7% 0% -32% -96% -72%
Holdings as % of C Co. <1 % 3 3% <1 % <1 % <1 % <1 %
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
N None
Huron Co onsulting / HURN N Symantecc / SYMC
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Fund* 45% 28% 18% 8% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. B Book
14x 16x n/a 24x >99x 13x
13x 14x n/a 17x >99x 12x
2.3x 2.8x n/m 4.2x 3.0x 7.8x
$190 million 100%
Median market value
$4.5 billion
Average markett value
$9.2 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
20x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tang gible book
3.0x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 57 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
SScout (Jamees Crichton)) JJames Crichton n co-founded Scout with Adam m Weiss in 1999. The firm ruuns a concentrrated portfolio oof undervaluedd equities. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Scout Capital C
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker McDonald's / MCD Sensata Tech / ST Verisk An nalytics / VRSK eBay / EB BAY Domino's s Pizza / DPZ Lamar Ad dvertising / LAMR R Tyco Electronics / TEL CF Indus stries / CF Kroger / KR Yum! Bra ands / YUM
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
80,432 5,793 5,819 45,018 1,029 3,830 16,804 9,807 14,691 23,919
76.13 33.29 33.78 34.53 17.14 41.54 37.72 137.87 23.10 51.17
-1% 11% -1% 24% 7% 4% 7% 2% 3% 4%
3,32 25 6,60 00 6,92 25 5,45 50 2,52 20 2,70 00 4,70 00 64 40 79 97 73 30
>100% 64% 25% 56% new 80% 57% 13% new new
Holdings as % of Co. <1% 4% 4% <1% 4% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 14% 12% 13% 10% 2% 6% 10% 5% 1% 2%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
15x n/a 24x 18x 13x n/m n/a 11x 13x 18x
14x n/a 21x 16x 12x n/m n/a 13x 12x 16x
7.2x n/m n/m 5.3x n/m n/m 5.7x 5.0x 3.6x >9.9x
T Top Holdings s of Scout Ca apital – By Dollar D Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Coca-Cola a Enterprise / CC CE McDonald d's / MCD Verisk Ana alytics / VRSK Sensata Tech T / ST eBay / EBAY Tyco Electronics / TEL Lamar Adv vertising / LAMR R CF Industrries / CF MSC Industrial / MSM Domino's Pizza / DPZ
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
8,964 80,432 5,819 5,793 45,018 16,804 3,830 9,807 4,073 1,029
27.15 76.13 33.78 33.29 34.53 37.72 41.54 137.87 64.22 17.14
8% -1% -1% 11% 24% 7% 4% 2% -1% 7%
10,690 0 3,325 5 6,925 5 6,600 0 5,450 0 4,700 0 2,700 0 640 0 970 0 2,520 0
-35% >100% 25% 64% 56% 57% 80% 13% -10% new
N New Position ns D Domino's Pizza / DPZ D Dr Pepper Snapp ple / DPS H Hansen Natural / HANS K Kroger / KR S Safeway / SWY S Supervalu / SVU Y Youku / YOKU
C Co. 3% < <1% 4% 4% < <1% 1% 3% < <1% 2% 4%
Fund* 16% 14% 13% 12% 10% 10% 6% 5% 3% 2%
T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
14x 15x 24x n/a 18x n/a n/m 11x 21x 13x
12x 14x 21x n/a 16x n/a n/m 13x 17x 12x
n/m 7.2x n/m n/m 5.3x 5.7x n/m 5.0x 7.1x n/m
Sold O Out Positions s Yum! Brands / YUM
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
Alberto-C Culver / ACV Amazon.ccom / AMZN Axis Cap pital / AXS Bank of A America / BAC CVS Care remark / CVS Everest R Re / RE Gannett / GCI
MastterCard / MA Molson Coors / TAP EDU New Oriental Edu. / E North hwest Bancorp / NWBI PG&E / PCG perware Brands C Corp. / TUP Tupp VancceInfo / VIT
Sectorr Weightings * $1.8 billion 91%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$9.0 billion
Average markett value
$29 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
15x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
4.7x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 58 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
SSecond Curvve (Tom Broown) T Tom Brown waas a sell-side an nalyst focused on the financiaal services induustry in the 1980s and 1990s, working at Sm mith B Barney, PaineW Webber and Do onaldson Lufkiin & Jenrette. In I 1998, he joinned Julian Robbertson’s Tigerr Management. He struck oout on his own two years laterr, founding Seccond Curve Caapital, a value-ooriented firm w with a focus onn the financial sector.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Second d Curve
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Banner Co orp. / BANR Taylor Cap pital / TAYC Tennessee Commerce / TNCC CompuCre edit / CCRT Primus Gu uaranty / PRS CoBiz Fina ancial / COBZ Mercantile e Bank / MBWM Hudson Valley / HUVL NewStar Financial F / NEWS S First Merc chants / FRME
Price
Shares s Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from f Dec c. 31
Recent ('000)
from Sep. 30
280 190 63 239 193 244 78 387 518 232
2.50 10.63 5.14 6.68 5.08 6.61 9.03 21.93 10.20 9.06
8% -19% 5% -4% 0% 9% 10% -11% -4% 2%
9,536 2,037 1,286 4,281 6,461 3,368 443 406 1,453 35
98% 2% 45% 4% 1% 11% new >100% 16% >100%
P P/E (Est.)
H Holdings as % of Co o. 9% % 11% % 11% % 12% % 17% % 9% % 5% % 2% % 3% % <1% %
Fund* 9% 9% 3% 11% 13% 9% 2% 4% 6% <1%
Th his FY
Next FY
Prrice/ Ta ang. Book
n n/m n n/m 1 16x n n/m n n/a 3 31x >9 99x 1 16x 1 19x 1 19x
>99x 18x 8x n/m n/a 13x 15x 13x n/a 11x
.7x 2 2.4x .6x 1 1.8x n/m 1 1.2x .7x 1 1.5x .9x 1 1.0x
T Top Holdings s of Second Curve – By Dollar D Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Primus Gu uaranty / PRS CompuCre edit / CCRT Banner Co orp. / BANR Synovus Financial F / SNV CoBiz Fina ancial / COBZ West. Allia ance Banc / WAL L Taylor Cap pital / TAYC Ocwen Fin nancial / OCN NewStar Financial F / NEWS S Hudson Valley / HUVL
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
193 239 280 2,136 244 671 190 1,110 518 387
5.08 6.68 2.50 2.72 6.61 8.23 10.63 11.04 10.20 21.93
0% -4% 8% 3% 9% 12% -19% 16% -4% -11%
6,461 4,281 9,536 6 8,357 7 3,368 8 2,634 4 2,037 7 1,874 4 1,453 3 406 6
1% 4% 98% -8% 11% -23% 2% -19% 16% >100%
N New Position ns B Bancorp / TBBK E Enterprise Financ cial / EFSC M MainSource Financial / MSFG
C Co. 1 7% 1 2% 9% 1% 9% 3% 1 1% 2% 3% 2%
Fund* 13% 11% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 6% 4%
T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
n/a n/m n/m n/m 31x 48x n/m 26x 19x 16x
n/a n/m >99x 16x 13x 16x 18x 8x n/a 13x
n/m 1.8x .7x 1.1x 1.2x 1.6x 2.4x 1.7x .9x 1.5x
Sold O Out Positions s ank / MBWM Mercantile Ba Sun Bancorp NJ / SNBC
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
CapitalSo ource / CSE Encore C Capital / ECPG Wintrust Financial / WTFC C
N Zionss BanCorp / ZION
Sectorr Weightings * $254 million 86%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$387 million
Average markett value
$2.2 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
18x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
1.3x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 59 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
SSoutheasterrn (Mason Hawkins) H M Mason Hawkin ns is chairman and a CEO of So outheastern Asset Managemeent, a firm he fo founded in 19755. Southeasternn serves as innvestment adv viser to the Lon ngleaf Partners Funds, a familly of value-orieented mutual ffunds. The firm m has $22 billioon of aassets under maanagement, inccluding $13 billlion in separattely managed aaccounts.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Southe eastern
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Texas Ind dustries / TXI Vail Reso orts / MTN tw teleco om / TWTC Dell / DELL Chesape eake Energy / CH HK Service Corp. C / SCI Martin Marietta / MLM Wendy's Arby's / WEN Bank of NY N Mellon / BK Markel / MKL
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
1,172 1,774 2,829 29,784 19,899 2,673 4,195 2,038 39,310 4,108
42.11 49.30 18.70 15.43 30.43 11.13 92.14 4.87 31.69 422.83
-8% -5% 10% 14% 17% 35% 0% 5% 5% 12%
4,71 15 2,16 66 27,53 36 145,15 56 81,84 49 31,82 28 4,47 79 29,70 05 31,29 96 86 63
3% new 1% 2% 1% 6% 1% 10% 7% 8%
Holdings as % of Co. 17% 6% 18% 8% 13% 13% 10% 7% 3% 9%
Fund* <1% <1% 2% 8% 9% 1% 2% <1% 4% 1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/m 47x 48x 9x 10x 18x 36x 30x 12x 24x
n/m 38x 33x 9x 11x 16x 27x 22x 11x 23x
1.6x 4.6x 2.9x >9.9x 1.6x >9.9x 5.1x n/m 4.6x 1.6x
T Top Holdings s of Southea astern – By Dollar D Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Chesapea ake Energy / CHK K DIRECTV / DTV Dell / DEL LL Walt Disne ey / DIS Yum! Bran nds / YUM Cemex / CX C Pioneer Natural / PXD Aon / AON N Liberty Interactive / LINTA Bank of NY Mellon / BK
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
19,899 36,934 29,784 82,724 23,919 9,425 11,520 17,010 20,220 39,310
30.43 44.30 15.43 43.56 51.17 9.69 99.23 52.93 17.41 31.69
17% 11% 14% 16% 4% -10% 14% 15% 10% 5%
81,849 9 50,816 6 145,156 6 37,369 9 30,231 1 132,804 4 12,614 4 23,229 9 61,586 6 31,296 6
1% -10% 2% -19% -9% -1% -19% -1% -2% 7%
Holdings as % of C Co. 1 3% 6% 8% 2% 6% 1 4% 1 1% 7% 5% 3%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
L Lockheed Martin / LMT N News Corp. / NW WSA V Vail Resorts / MT TN
InterConttinental H. / IHG Shanda G Games / GAME
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sector Weightings *
Portfolio size
Fund* 9% 8% 8% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
10x 19x 9x 17x 18x n/m 32x 15x 17x 12x
11x 14x 9x 15x 16x 69x 22x 14x 23x 11x
1.6x n/m >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x .6x 2.9x n/m n/m 4.6x
$27 billion 60%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$10 billion
Average markett value
$24 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
16x
Median P / tang gible book
2.6x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 60 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
SSpencer (Keen Shubin Stein) St D Dr. Shubin Steiin is the foundeer of Spencer Capital, C a deep value-orientedd investment m management firrm.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Spence er Capital
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker J.C. Penney / JCP MRV Com mmunications / MRVC Howard Hughes / HHC Immucor / BLUD Quest Diagnostics / DGX LECG Corrp. / XPRT Myriad Ge enetics / MYGN Iridium Co omms / IRDM PNI Digita al Media / PNDMF Spark Nettworks / LOV
Price
Shares s Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from f Dec c. 31
Recent ('000)
from Sep. 30
8,759 276 2,106 1,427 9,852 31 1,714 583 57 68
37.02 1.76 55.83 20.38 57.56 0.81 19.07 8.31 1.66 3.28
15% -2% 3% 3% 7% -4 41% -17% 1% 4% 10%
19 351 4 19 5 106 12 240 127 228
new >100% new new new new new -27% -71% -58%
H Holdings as % of Co o. <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % 1% %
Fund* 10% 9% 3% 6% 4% 1% 3% 28% 3% 11%
P P/E (Est.) Th his F FY
Next FY
Priice/ Ta ang. Bo ook
2 24x 2 22x n/m 18x 13x n/m 19x 2 27x n n/a n n/a
21x 13x n/m 16x 12x n/m 16x 14x n/a n/a
1 1.8x 1 1.9x 1 1.4x 4 4.0x n n/m .9x 3 3.1x 1 1.3x 3 3.7x 6 6.4x
T Top Holdings s of Spencerr Capital – By y Dollar Valu ue
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Iridium Co omms / IRDM Spark Nettworks / LOV J.C. Penney / JCP General Growth G / GGP MRV Com mmunications / MRVC dELiA*s / DLIA Immucor / BLUD Markel / MKL M Quest Diagnostics / DGX Howard Hughes / HHC
Price
Shares s Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from f Dec c. 31
Recent ('000)
from Sep. 30
583 68 8,759 19,896 276 60 1,427 4,108 9,852 2,106
8.31 3.28 37.02 15.76 1.76 1.92 20.38 422.83 57.56 55.83
1% 10% 15% 2% -2% 10% 3% 12% 7% 3%
240 228 19 43 351 238 19 1 5 4
-27% -58% new -78% >100% -73% new -71% new new
N New Position ns H Howard Hughes / HHC Im mmucor / BLUD JJ.C. Penney / JCP
Co o. <1% % 1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% % <1% %
Fund* 28% 11% 10% 10% 9% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3%
P P/E (Est.) Th his F FY
Next FY
Priice/ Ta ang. Bo ook
2 27x n n/a 2 24x n/m 2 22x n/m 18x 2 24x 13x n/m
14x n/a 21x 53x 13x n/m 16x 23x 12x n/m
1 1.3x 6 6.4x 1 1.8x >9 9.9x 1 1.9x .8x 4 4.0x 1 1.6x n n/m 1 1.4x
Sold O Out Positions s LECG Corp. / XPRT Myriad Genettics / MYGN Quest Diagno ostics / DGX
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
H Holdings as % of
Resource e America / REX XI Sears Ca anada / SEARF Wendy's Arby's / WEN
Sectorr Weightings * $7 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
93%
Median market value
$1.7 billion
Average markett value
$22 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
22x
Median P/E (next FY)
18x
Median P / tang gible book
2.0x
*
Based on informattion provided to The e Manual of Ideas by b Spencer Capital. E Excludes portfolio cash, c certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 61 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
TTeton (Quinncy Lee) Q Quincy Lee is an a Austin, Tex xas-based valuee investor who is said to havee compounded capital in his T Teton investmeent ppartnership at an a annual rate well w in excess of o 20%, net off fees.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Teton Capital C
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Aon / AO ON CBS / CB BS ZipRealty y / ZIPR Quality Distribution D / QLT TY NXP Sem miconductors / NXPI Valeant Pharma P / VRX Northern Oil & Gas / NOG G Howard Hughes H / HHC Goldman n Sachs / GS Orbitz Worldwide / OWW W
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
17,010 15,605 60 268 7,302 11,989 1,686 2,106 85,909 385
52.93 22.91 2.94 11.40 29.30 40.47 27.85 55.83 168.04 3.76
15% 20% 13% 25% 40% 43% 2% 3% 0% -33%
36 60 63 34 2,21 0 1,09 93 35 51 56 61 12 20 10 05 5 58 1,31 5
new 44% 0% new new 0% new new 0% -7%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% <1% 11% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Fund* 10% 7% 3% 6% 5% 11% 2% 3% 5% 2%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
15x 16x n/m 39x n/a n/a 77x n/m 10x 29x
14x 12x n/m 19x n/a n/a 26x n/m 9x 16x
n/m n/m 1.8x n/m n/m n/m 7.3x 1.4x 1.4x n/m
T Top Holdings s of Teton Ca apital – By Dollar D Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Valeant Pharma / VRX Clear Cha annel / CCO Aon / AON N American Dental / ADPI CBS / CBS S Quality Dis stribution / QLTY Y Nicholas Financial F / NICK NXP Semiconductors / NX XPI Liberty Glo obal / LBTYA Goldman Sachs S / GS
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
11,989 615 17,010 199 15,605 268 146 7,302 10,033 85,909
40.47 15.06 52.93 12.93 22.91 11.40 12.35 29.30 42.19 168.04
43% 7% 15% -4% 20% 25% 21% 40% 19% 0%
561 1,282 2 360 0 1,203 3 634 4 1,093 3 866 6 351 242 2 58 8
0% -10% new -1% 44% new -3% new -1% 0%
N New Position ns A Aon / AON B BofI Holding / BO OFI H Howard Hughes / HHC
C Co. < <1% 3% < <1% 8% < <1% 5% 7% < <1% < <1% < <1%
Fund* 11% 10% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
n/a >99x 15x 12x 16x 39x n/a n/a 35x 10x
n/a 72x 14x 12x 12x 19x n/a n/a 39x 9x
n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m n/m 1.3x n/m n/m 1.4x
Sold O Out Positions s Northern Oil & Gas / NOG NXP Semicon nductors / NXPI Quality Distrib bution / QLTY
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
eBay / EB BAY Furiex Ph harma / FURX iStar Fina ancial / SFI
MI Developments / M MIM Repu ublic Airways / RJJET Scien ntific Games / SG GMS
Sectorr Weightings * $200 million
Top 10 as % of portfolio
72%
Median market value
$771 million
Average markett value
$6.7 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
18x
Median P/E (next FY)
16x
Median P / tang gible book
1.3x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 62 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
TThird Pointt (Dan Loeb)) L Loeb is the founder of long/sh hort activist fun nd Third Pointt, which has am massed a respecctable long-term m investment rrecord. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Third Point P
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker LyondellB Basell / LYB Massey Energy E / MEE Williams Companies / WM MB Alcon / ACL A Potash / POT NXP Sem miconductors / NXPI BioFuel Energy E / BIOF Rio Tinto o / RIO Citigroup p/C CIT Grou up / CIT
Market Value ($mn) 21,467 6,565 17,760 49,546 51,207 7,302 85 140,370 142,677 8,667
Price Recent from Dec. D 31 ($) 37.95 10% 64.28 20% 30.37 23% 165.40 1% 180.00 16% 29.30 40% 0.95 -45% 71.54 0% 4.91 4% 43.28 -8%
Sharres Owned Recen nt from Sep. 30 ('000 0) 4,46 63 new 2,00 00 new 4,00 00 new 80 00 14% 1,20 00 20% 3,15 51 new 5,57 79 0% 30 00 new 7,00 00 new 1,55 50 0%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* <1% 8% 2% 6% <1% 6% <1% 7% <1% 11% 1% 5% 6% <1% <1% 1% <1% 2% <1% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY n/a n/a 19x 13x 24x 19x n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 10x 7x 11x 9x 22x 17x
Price/ Tang. Book 2.3x 4.0x 2.5x 9.1x 6.6x n/m 1.6x 3.2x 1.1x 1.0x
T Top Holdings s of Third Po oint – By Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 51,207 21,467 49,546 6,565 17,760 7,302 1,402 2,936 20,220 8,667
Company y / Ticker Potash / POT P LyondellBasell / LYB Alcon / AC CL Massey Energy / MEE Williams Companies C / WM MB NXP Semiconductors / NX XPI PHH / PHH Health Net / HNT Liberty Interactive / LINTA CIT Group p / CIT
Price Recent from De ec. 31 ($) 180.00 16% 37.95 10% 165.40 1% 64.28 20% 30.37 23% 29.30 40% 25.24 9% 30.73 13% 17.41 10% 43.28 -8%
N New Position ns A AbitibiBowater / ABH A A Apple / AAPL B Bank of America / BAC C Capitol Federal / CFFN C Citigroup / C C Comcast / CMCS SA C CVR Energy / CV VI L Lender Processin ng / LPS L LyondellBasell / LYB L M Marathon Oil / MR RO M Massey Energy / MEE N NXP Semiconduc ctors / NXPI
Holdings as % of C Co. Fund* < <1% 11% < <1% 8% < <1% 7% 2% 6% < <1% 6% 1% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% < <1% 3% < <1% 3%
P/E (Est.) T This Next FY FY n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 19x 13x 24x 19x n/a n/a 29x 8x 11x 10x 17x 23x 22x 17x
P Price/ T Tang. Book 6.6x 2.3x 9.1x 4.0x 2.5x n/m 5.2x 2.8x n/m 1.0x
Sold O Out Positions s Oritani Financ cial / ORIT Pall Corp. / PLL P Plains Explorration / PXP PMI Group / PMI P Rio Tinto / RIO S SemGroup / SEMG Smurfit-Stone e / SSCC Sunoco / SUN N ViewPoint Fin nancial / VPFG Williams Com mpanies / WMB Yahoo! / YHO OO Zoran / ZRAN N
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
Share es Owned Recentt from Sep. 30 ('000)) 1,200 0 20% 4,463 3 new 800 0 14% 2,000 0 new 4,000 0 new 3,151 new 3,500 0 0% 2,800 0 0% 4,000 0 0% 1,550 0 0%
Apple / A AAPL Northern Trust / NTRS
Sectorr Weightings * $2.0 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
58%
Median market value
$4.0 billion
Average markett value
$26 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
17x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
2.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 63 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
TTiger Globaal (Chase Cooleman) C Chase Coleman n, a descendantt early New Yo ork Governor Peter P Stuyvesannt, worked for Julian Robertsson’s Tiger Maanagement pprior to foundin ng Tiger Globaal in 2001.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Tiger Global G
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Liberty Global G / LBTYA Electronic Arts / ERTS MakeMyT Trip / MMYT Amazon.com / AMZN Liberty Capital C / LCAPA Ctrip.com m / CTRP Duoyuan n Global Water / DGW Visa / V Live Nation / LYV Longtop Fin. Tech / LFT
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
Holdings as % of
10,033 6,446 940 84,112 20,220 5,839
42.19 19.28 27.55 186.50 71.88 39.49
19% 18% 2% 4% 15% -2%
7,77 77 14,10 00 4,13 30 1,00 00 3,57 72 1,31 6
43% 8% 0% 20% 34% new
Co. 3% 4% 12% <1% 1% <1%
Fund* 8% 7% 3% 5% 6% 1%
232
9.44
-26%
1,17 70
34%
5%
54,043 1,967 1,826
75.83 11.33 32.00
8% -1% -12%
2,05 50 11,95 50 2,58 87
new 0% 17%
<1% 7% 5%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
35x 29x n/a 58x n/m 32x
39x 22x n/a 42x n/m 25x
n/m 5.9x n/m >9.9x >9.9x 7.8x
<1%
6x
6x
.9x
4% 3% 2%
16x n/m 18x
13x n/a 15x
>9.9x n/m 4.4x
T Top Holdings s of Tiger Glo obal – By Do ollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Apple / AA APL Viacom / VIA.B V Liberty Glo obal / LBTYA DIRECTV / DTV Electronic Arts / ERTS Liberty Ca apital / LCAPA MercadoLibre / MELI Cablevisio on / CVC priceline.c com / PCLN Amazon.c com / AMZN
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
322,963 27,699 10,033 36,934 6,446 20,220 3,213 11,288 22,041 84,112
350.56 45.50 42.19 44.30 19.28 71.88 72.80 37.62 448.93 186.50
9% 15% 19% 11% 18% 15% 9% 11% 12% 4%
1,133 3 7,447 7 7,777 7 6,325 5 14,100 0 3,572 2 3,274 4 6,307 7 457 7 1,000 0
-10% -15% 43% -16% 8% 34% -14% -13% -18% 20%
Co. < <1% 1% 3% < <1% 4% 1% 7% 2% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
B Baidu.com / BIDU U C Ctrip.com / CTRP P V Visa / V
Apollo Grroup / APOL CNinsure e / CISG Green Do ot / GDOT
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of Fund* 10% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
15x 13x 35x 19x 29x n/m 57x 19x 34x 58x
13x 12x 39x 14x 22x n/m 47x 15x 25x 42x
6.0x n/m n/m n/m 5.9x >9.9x >9.9x n/m >9.9x >9.9x
Lockheed Martin / LM MT Nike / NKE S TAL Education / XRS
$4.1 billion 67%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$8.3 billion
Average markett value
$31 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
18x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
3.9x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 64 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
V Viking Globbal (Andreaas Halvorsen en) A Andreas Halvorsen is a gradu uate of the Norw wegian Naval Academy, A a foormer platoon ccommander off the Norwegiann SEALs, aand a former diirector of equitties at Tiger Maanagement. Haalvorsen foundded Viking Gloobal Investors iin 1999. M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Viking Global
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Time Wa arner Cable / TWC Citigroup p/C Baidu.com / BIDU LifePoint Hospitals / LPNT Estee La auder / EL Yum! Bra ands / YUM Potash / POT Sherwin--Williams / SHW Akamai Technologies T / AKAM A EMC / EM MC
Market Value ($mn) 25,574 142,677 44,066 1,933 18,653 23,919 51,207 9,178 7,580 56,002
Price Recent from Dec. D 31 ($) 71.89 9% 4.91 4% 126.80 31% 36.68 0% 94.48 17% 51.17 4% 180.00 16% 85.03 2% 41.57 -12% 27.18 19%
Sharres Owned Rece nt from Sep. 30 ('00 00) 9,21 10 >100% 150,98 85 56% 4,70 04 >100% 3,51 13 new 6,32 23 31% 11,04 48 new 2,86 68 >100% 6,26 66 47% 3,75 58 new 14,72 24 36%
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 3% 5% <1% 6% 1% 4% 7% <1% 3% 4% 2% 4% 1% 4% 6% 4% 2% 1% <1% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 16x 13x 11x 9x 51x 35x 13x 12x 26x 22x 18x 16x n/a n/a 17x 14x 26x 23x 18x 16x
Price/ Tang. Book n/m 1.1x >9.9x 6.7x >9.9x >9.9x 6.6x >9.9x 4.6x >9.9x
T Top Holdings s of Viking Global G – By Dollar D Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Market Value ($mn) 12,637 142,677 25,574 18,653 44,066 23,919 9,178 51,207 21,654 56,002
Company y / Ticker Invesco / IVZ I Citigroup / C Time Warn ner Cable / TWC C Estee Lau uder / EL Baidu.com m / BIDU Yum! Bran nds / YUM Sherwin-W Williams / SHW Potash / POT P American Tower / AMT EMC / EM MC
Price Recent from De ec. 31 ($) 27.35 14% 4.91 4% 71.89 9% 94.48 17% 126.80 31% 51.17 4% 85.03 2% 180.00 16% 54.26 5% 27.18 19%
N New Position ns C C.H. Robinson / CH HRW C Cameron / CAM C CareFusion / CFN C Charles River Labs / CRL C Comcast / CMCSA C CVS Caremark / CV VS C Cytec Industries / CYT C D Danaher / DHR E Express Scripts / ES SRX F Flowserve / FLS G Goldman Sachs / GS G G Guess? / GES H Hexcel Corp. / HXL H Human Genome Sc cience / HGSI Illumina / ILMN M Magellan Health / MGLN M N Noble Energy / NBL L O Oracle / ORCL S Stanley Black Decker / SWK
Holdings as % of Co. Fund* 8% 7% < <1% 6% 3% 5% 3% 4% 1% 4% 2% 4% 6% 4% 1% 4% 2% 3% < <1% 3%
P/E (Est.) This Next FY FY 15x 13x 11x 9x 16x 13x 26x 22x 51x 35x 18x 16x 17x 14x n/a n/a 58x 49x 18x 16x
P Price/ T Tang. Book n/m 1.1x n/m >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x >9.9x 6.6x n/m >9.9x
Sold O Out Positions s Tyco International / TYC eutics / UTHR United Therape UnitedHealth / UNH B Viacom / VIA.B Walgreen / WA AG WellCare / WCG WellPoint / WLP
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
Share es Owned Recen nt from Sep. 30 ('000 0) 35,572 2 -7% 150,985 5 56% 9,210 0 >100% 6,323 3 31% 4,704 4 >100% 11,048 8 new 6,266 6 47% 2,868 8 >100% 7,696 6 -10% 14,724 4 36%
Acme Paccket / APKT echnologies / AKAM M Akamai Te AmerisourrceBergen / ABC Apollo Gro oup / APOL Beckman C Coulter / BEC BlackRockk / BLK Broadcom / BRCM ne / COF Capital On Communitty Health / CYH on / DHI D.R. Horto Fifth Third Bancorp / FITB FTNT Fortinet / F Google / G GOOG H&R Blockk / HRB Healthsoutth / HLS Hospira / H HSP Jack Henry ry / JKHY Las Vegass Sands / LVS LifePoint H Hospitals / LPNT
Lyond dellBasell / LYB Marsh h & McLennan / MM MC McKe esson / MCK Medtrronic / MDT MGM Mirage / MGM Oriental Edu. / EDU U New O NII Ho oldings / NIHD Penn West Energy / PW WE nElmer / PKI Perkin Procte er & Gamble / PG SL Grreen Realty / SLG Sothe eby's / BID Taleccris Bio / TLCR Talism man Energy / TLM U.S. B Bancorp / USB Urban n Outfitters / URBN N Valsp par / VAL Vance eInfo / VIT Yum! Brands / YUM
Sectorr Weightings * $13 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
45%
Median market value
$12 billion
Average markett value
$33 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
15x
Median P / tang gible book
3.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 65 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
W Weitz Funds ds (Wally Weitz) We W Wally Weitz, so ometimes calleed “The Other Oracle of Omaaha,” founded W Wallace R. Weeitz & Co. in 1983 with $10 m million uunder managem ment. The firm has since grow wn into a $2 billlion asset mannager best know wn for the Weiitz Value Fundd.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Weitz
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Omnicare e / OCR Aon / AO ON Texas Ins struments / TXN Intelligen nt Systems / INS Tree.com m / TREE Strayer Education E / STRA A Ascent Media M / ASCMA Prestige Brands / PBH Kennedy y-Wilson / KW Southwestern Energy / SWN
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
3,135 17,010 42,540 15 86 1,851 597 561 444 12,640
26.96 52.93 36.23 1.70 7.80 136.62 40.09 11.17 11.02 36.45
6% 15% 11% 32% -17% -10% 3% -7% 10% -3%
4,74 42 2,30 07 2,91 3 2,27 70 6 60 3 36 67 79 28 80 3 30 26 60
8% 20% 4% 0% 20% 33% 37% 17% 50% new
Holdings as % of Co. 4% <1% <1% 25% <1% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 6% 5% 5% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
13x 15x 14x n/a n/m 15x n/a 14x 41x 21x
12x 14x 13x n/a 71x 15x n/a 11x >99x 23x
n/m n/m 4.6x 2.8x 1.9x >9.9x 1.1x n/m 1.7x 4.4x
T Top Holdings s of Weitz – By B Dollar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Omnicare / OCR Liberty Interactive / LINTA Aon / AON N Redwood Trust / RWT Texas Insttruments / TXN Berkshire Hathaway / BRK K.A Microsoft / MSFT ConocoPh hillips / COP Dell / DEL LL Liberty Glo obal / LBTYA
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
3,135 20,220 17,010 1,315 42,540 210,308 227,369 112,572 29,784 10,033
26.96 17.41 52.93 16.84 36.23 127,640 27.06 76.62 15.43 42.19
6% 10% 15% 13% 11% 6% -3% 13% 14% 19%
4,742 2 7,166 6 2,307 7 6,463 3 2,913 3 1 3,609 9 1,274 4 6,244 4 2,225 5
8% -18% 20% -6% 4% -4% 0% -1% -5% -24%
N New Position ns A Apple / AAPL Irron Mountain / IR RM IT TT Educational / ESI R Republic Services / RSG
Co. 4% < <1% < <1% 8% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
Fund* 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%
This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
13x 17x 15x 12x 14x 19x 11x 11x 9x 35x
12x 23x 14x 13x 13x 19x 10x 10x 9x 39x
n/m n/m n/m 1.3x 4.6x 2.1x 6.5x 1.7x >9.9x n/m
Sold O Out Positions s SAIC / SAI KX Skechers / SK Southwestern n Energy / SWN Viacom / VIA A.B
P Portfolio Mettrics * Portfolio size
P/E (Est.)
Holdings as % of
Apollo Grroup / APOL AutoZone e / AZO Coinstar / CSTR Telephon ne & Data / TDS
Weig ght Watchers / W WTW
Sectorr Weightings * $2.2 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio
48%
Median market value
$7.9 billion
Average markett value
$31 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
3.5x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 66 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
W West Coast (Lance Helffert and Pau aul Orfalea) L Lace Helfert an nd Paul Orfaleaa co-founded West W Coast Assset Managemennt in 2000. Hellfert, who direccts the firm’s innvestments, prreviously overssaw a $1 billion n portfolio at Wilshire W Assocciates. Orfalea iis the founder of Kinko’s coppy shops. W West Coast inv vests in undervaalued equities and a follows a concentrated c innvestment apprroach.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of West Coast C Asset M Managementt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker American n Defense / EAG G Molson Coors C / TAP Microsoftt / MSFT Kimberly-Clark / KMB Clorox / CLX C Automatic Data / ADP Angiotech Pharma / ANP PI Kraft Foo ods / KFT Johnson & Johnson / JNJ J Live Nation / LYV
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
8 8,470 227,369 26,776 9,378 24,791 14 53,993 167,824 1,967
0.16 45.60 27.06 65.66 68.15 49.94 0.03 30.91 61.11 11.33
-6% -9% -3% 4% 8% 8% -91% -2% -1% -1%
7,06 62 25 56 17 73 17 77 18 81 21 12 5 56 15 53 13 37 51 18
16% 1% new 3% 1% 1% 0% 7% 2% 1%
Holdings as % of Co. 14% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 1% 13% 5% 13% 14% 12% <1% 5% 9% 7%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/a 12x 11x 13x 17x 20x n/a 14x 13x n/m
n/a 11x 10x 12x 15x 19x n/a 12x 12x n/a
n/m 5.1x 6.5x >9.9x n/m >9.9x n/m n/m 6.8x n/m
T Top Holdings s of West Co oast Asset Ma anagement – By Dollar V Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Clorox / CLX Molson Co oors / TAP Kimberly-C Clark / KMB Automatic c Data / ADP McCormic ck / MKC Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Live Nation / LYV Broadridge e Financial / BR Kraft Food ds / KFT Microsoft / MSFT
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
9,378 8,470 26,776 24,791 5,546 167,824 1,967 2,912 53,993 227,369
68.15 45.60 65.66 49.94 46.06 61.11 11.33 23.24 30.91 27.06
8% -9% 4% 8% -1% -1% -1% 6% -2% -3%
181 1 256 6 177 7 212 2 214 4 137 7 518 8 208 8 153 3 173 3
1% 1% 3% 1% -12% 2% 1% 2% 7% new
Holdings as % of Co. < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
C Constellation Ene ergy / CEP M Microsoft / MSFT T
Contango o Oil & Gas / MC CF
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
Fund* 14% 13% 13% 12% 11% 9% 7% 5% 5% 5%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
17x 12x 13x 20x 16x 13x n/m 17x 14x 11x
15x 11x 12x 19x 15x 12x n/a 14x 12x 10x
n/m 5.1x >9.9x >9.9x n/m 6.8x n/m >9.9x n/m 6.5x
$90 million 94%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$5.5 billion
Average markett value
$35 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
14x
Median P/E (next FY)
12x
Median P / tang gible book
5.8x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 67 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
W Wintergreen en (David Winters) Wi D David Winters joined Mutual Series in 1987 7 and was menttored by famedd value investoor Michael Pricce. Winters beccame ppresident and CIO C of Mutual Series in 2001. He left in 200 05 to form Winntergreen Adviisers and manaage the Winterggreen F Fund, a mutual fund that follo ows an active, value-oriented v d investment appproach.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of Winterg green Advise ers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Barrick Gold G / ABX Canadian n Natural / CNQ Consolidated-Tomoka / CTO C Franklin Resources / BEN N Reynolds s American / RAII Activision n Blizzard / ATVI Goldman n Sachs / GS Coca-Co ola FEMSA / KOF F McDonald's / MCD Coca-Co ola / KO
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
51,467 52,274 182 29,088 20,150 13,351 85,909 2,063 80,432 149,887
51.40 47.90 31.76 130.40 34.56 11.07 168.04 76.00 76.13 64.55
-3% 8% 10% 17% 6% -11% 0% -8% -1% -2%
89 90 2,17 70 1,54 43 50 08 1,25 51 1,04 46 14 42 18 86 15 56 36 60
new 16% 4% 0% 90% new 0% 0% 0% -3%
Holdings as % of Co. <1% <1% 27% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Fund* 8% 18% 8% 11% 7% 2% 4% 2% 2% 4%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/a n/a n/a 16x 13x 15x 10x 18x 15x 17x
n/a n/a n/a 14x 12x 13x 9x 15x 14x 15x
3.8x 2.4x 1.6x 4.8x n/m 5.6x 1.4x .4x 7.2x >9.9x
T Top Holdings s of Wintergrreen Adviserrs – By Dolla ar Value
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker Canadian Natural / CNQ Berkshire Hathaway / BRK K.A Franklin Resources R / BEN Consolidated-Tomoka / CT TO Barrick Go old / ABX Reynolds American / RAI Philip Morrris / PM General Dynamics D / GD Goldman Sachs S / GS Coca-Cola a / KO
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
52,274 210,308 29,088 182 51,467 20,150 111,458 29,506 85,909 149,887
47.90 127,640 130.40 31.76 51.40 34.56 61.43 78.11 168.04 64.55
8% 6% 17% 10% -3% 6% 5% 10% 0% -2%
2,170 0 1 508 8 1,543 3 890 0 1,251 1 689 9 366 6 142 2 360 0
16% -8% 0% 4% new 90% -4% -23% 0% -3%
Holdings as % of Co. < <1% < <1% < <1% 2 27% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
A Activision Blizzard / ATVI B Barrick Gold / AB BX
Fomento Economico / FM MX Mead Joh hnson / MJN
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size
Fund* 18% 12% 11% 8% 8% 7% 7% 5% 4% 4%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
n/a 19x 16x n/a n/a 13x 14x 11x 10x 17x
n/a 19x 14x n/a n/a 12x 13x 10x 9x 15x
2.4x 2.1x 4.8x 1.6x 3.8x n/m n/m n/m 1.4x >9.9x
$577 million 86%
Top 10 as % of portfolio Median market value
$29 billion
Average markett value
$51 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
16x
Median P/E (next FY)
14x
Median P / tang gible book
2.4x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 68 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
W WL Ross & Co. C (Wilburr Ross) W Wilbur Ross, born in 1937, haas become welll-known for reestructuring faiiled companiess in a variety off industries. Hee has been a leveraged buy yout and distressed investor in steel, coal, teelecom, financ ial and other companies.
M MOI Signal Rank™ R – Top p Current Idea as of WL Ross & Co.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Compan ny / Ticker Dynegy / DYN Sun Banc corp NJ / SNBC EXCO Re esources / XCO Hanesbra ands / HBI Assured Guaranty / AGO O Key Enerrgy Services / KE EG Plains Ex xploration / PXP Cooper Tire T & Rubber / CTB C BioScrip / BIOS Internatio onal Coal / ICO
Price
Sharres Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from Dec. D 31
Recen nt ('000 0)
from Sep. 30
727 226 4,329 2,443 3,004 1,991 5,467 1,513 250 1,939
6.01 4.49 20.39 25.35 16.35 14.08 39.02 24.60 4.65 9.51
7% -3% 5% 0% -8% 8% 21% 4% -11% 23%
4,00 00 12,46 69 15,88 82 15 55 16,01 6 62 20 9 93 50 04 14 46 12,26 69
new >100% >100% new 0% 8% 0% -5% new -50%
Holdings as % of Co. 3% 25% 7% <1% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6%
Fund* 3% 7% 40% <1% 32% 1% <1% 2% <1% 14%
P/E (Est.) This FY
Next FY
Price/ Tang. Book
n/m n/m 28x 10x 5x n/m 33x 10x 33x 15x
n/m 75x 30x 9x 4x 25x 23x 10x 16x 8x
.3x 1.0x 3.1x n/m .7x 3.7x 1.9x 3.4x n/m 2.6x
T Top Holdings s of WL Ross s & Co. – By Dollar Value e
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Company y / Ticker EXCO Resources / XCO Assured Guaranty G / AGO Internation nal Coal / ICO Sun Banco orp NJ / SNBC Dynegy / DYN D Cooper Tire & Rubber / CT TB Key Energ gy Services / KEG G Hanesbran nds / HBI Plains Exp ploration / PXP Innophos / IPHS
Price
Share es Owned
Market Value ($mn)
Recent ($)
from De ec. 31
Recentt ('000))
from Sep. 30
4,329 3,004 1,939 226 727 1,513 1,991 2,443 5,467 929
20.39 16.35 9.51 4.49 6.01 24.60 14.08 25.35 39.02 43.32
5% -8% 23% -3% 7% 4% 8% 0% 21% 20%
15,882 2 16,016 6 12,269 9 12,469 9 4,000 0 504 4 620 0 155 5 93 3 16 6
>100% 0% -50% >100% new -5% 8% new 0% -81%
Holdings as % of C Co. 7% 9% 6% 2 25% 3% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1% < <1%
N New Position ns
Sold O Out Positions s
B BioScrip / BIOS D Dynegy / DYN H Hanesbrands / HBI
Jo-Ann S Stores / JAS Lear / LE EA
P Portfolio Mettrics *
Sectorr Weightings *
Portfolio size Top 10 as % of portfolio
Fund* 40% 32% 14% 7% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1%
P/E (Est.) T This FY
Next FY
P Price/ T Tang. Book
28x 5x 15x n/m n/m 10x n/m 10x 33x 11x
30x 4x 8x 75x n/m 10x 25x 9x 23x 11x
3.1x .7x 2.6x 1.0x .3x 3.4x 3.7x n/m 1.9x 4.0x
$812 million 100%
Median market value
$1.9 billion
Average markett value
$2.3 billion
Median P/E (this FY)
13x
Median P/E (next FY)
13x
Median P / tang gible book
2.9x
*
Based on equity ho oldings disclosed in n 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Exclud des p portfolio cash, leverrage, certain non-U U.S. holdings, and non-equity n securitie es.
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February 28, 2011 – Page 69 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
N New or Inccreased Suuperinvestor Holdinngs AAbitibiBowaater (ABH) — Fairfax , Markkel , Paaulson ,, Third Poinnt www.abiitibibowater.com
Montreal, QC, CCanada, 514-875-2160
Basic Materials s: Paper & Pape er Products Trading Data
Consensus EPS S Estimates
Price: $27.23 (as of 2/23/11) 52-week rang ge: $21.50 - $30.54 Market value:: $2.7 billion Enterprise value: $3.5 billion Shares out: 97.1 9 million
This quarter Next quarterr FYE 12/31/1 10
Late est -$1..03 0..62 -8..49
Month Ago -$0.37 0.70 -17.84
Valuatio on # of Ests 3 2 2
P//E FYE 12/31/09 P//E FYE 12/31/10 P//E FYE 12/31/11 P//E FYE 12/30/12 EV V/ LTM revenue
n/m n/m n/m n/m 0.8x
FYE 12/31/1 11
2..72
3.24
5
EV V/ LTM EBIT
n/m
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 12/30/1 12
3..46
3.52
5
P / tangible book
n/m
Insider buys (last ( six months): 0
LT growth
n n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months)): 0 Institutional ownership: 77%
EPS Surpris se 11/15/10 0
Ownership O Data a
Actua al n/a
Estim mate n /a
Greenblatt Criteria LT TM EBIT yield LT TM pre-tax ROC
-41% -33%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y
12/31//03 2,7 721 527 5 (10 01) (20 05) (6.7 76) 30 20 216 2 (19 96) 146 843 8 828 8 5,6 616 214 2 660 6 2,2 292 4,0 003 0 1,6 613
12/31/04 3,190 844 30 (87) (2.93) 30 123 84 38 130 903 819 5,450 87 557 2,428 3,943 0 1,507
Fiscal Years Y Ended 12/31/05 12 2/31/06 12/31//07 3,484 3,530 3,8 876 943 847 6 670 99 54 (40 00) (121) (138) (49 90) (4.03) (4.53) (14.1 12) 35 30 30 169 182 (24 47) 168 199 1 28 1 (17) (37 75) 30 99 1 95 990 959 2,1 42 590 1,9 794 971 5,152 4,646 10,2 287 77 15 9 953 576 446 2,1 78 2,252 4,6 2,400 695 3,937 3,813 8,3 388 0 0 0 1,216 833 1,8 899
12/31/08 6,771 1,627 (1,399) (2,234) (34.34) 58 (420) 186 (606) 192 2,767 338 8,072 955 2,385 5,015 8,548 0 (476)
12/31/09 4,366 1,023 (1,014) (1,553) (26.92) 58 46 101 (55) 774 2,172 526 7,112 985 1,688 274 9,203 0 (2,091)
L LTME 9/30/10 4,600 956 (1 1,537) (1 1,940) (3 33.62) 58 (10) 63 (73) 540 2,074 516 6,447 1,102 1,733 281 10,236 0 (3 3,789)
FQE E 9/30/09 9 1,091 206 6 (334)) (511)) (8.86)) 58 8 8 27 7 (19)) 569 9 2,525 5 528 8 7,603 3 1,330 0 2,117 7 35 5 9,278 8 0 (1,675))
FQE 9/30/10 1,192 300 (719) (829) (14.37) 58 18 16 2 540 2,074 516 6,447 1,102 1,733 281 10,236 0 (3,789)
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
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February 28, 2011 – Page 70 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA
A AbitibiBowaterr is a North Am merican forest products p ccompany that emerged e from bankruptcy b in December D 2010.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
Forestt products lea ader, with annual operating capacity of seven million m metric tons t of pulp an nd paperr and two billio on board feet of lumber. Abitib biBowater prod duces 3.3 millio on tons of newsp print (9% of glo obal capacity); 660K tons of coated d paper (14% of o North Ameriican capacity); 1.8 million n tons of uncoaated paper (35% % of N.A. capaciity); 1.1 million n tons of mark ket pulp (7% off N.A. capacity). c The company also operates 18 sawmiills and six wood products facilities in Canaada that prroduce lumber and other speccialized produccts. Low-ccost, restructu ured producerr. AbitibiBowaater has clo osed marginal assets and redu uced fixed costts and lab bor expenses by b $880 million n annually. Ten n of the company’s tw welve newsprintt facilities are in i the low wer half of the cost curve. Ab bitibiBowater is i the low west-cost produ ucer of coated paper in N.A. Impro oved balance sheet, s with deb bt reduced from m $6.8 billion b pre-crisiis to $850 milliion at yearend ‘10 (emplo oyee count cutt from 18,000 to t 11,000 durin ng the sam me time). In Feebruary, Abitib biBowater agreeed to sell its stake in cerrtain Ontario hydro h assets forr C$300 0 million; addittional asset sales are possiblee. New CEO C appointeed in January.. Richard Garn neau served d as CEO of Caatalyst Paper, a distressed pap per produccts company, from f early 2007 7 to mid 2010. Strong shareholderr base, includin ng 18% owned d by Fairfax x, 5% by Paulsson, and 2% by y Third Point.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Cycliccal, commoditty business witth tough long-term economics. e Wh hile AbitibiBowater has reemerg ged with a much h-improved co ost structure and balancce sheet, the un nderlying busin ness remains relativ vely unattractiv ve — it is capittal-intensive an nd subjecct to lower-costt global compeetition. Marketss for new wsprint, in parrticular, are in long-term l decliine. 56% of o production and 15% of sales are based d in Canad da, implying th hat profitability y could be negatively affected by b a rising Can nadian dollar. Capital structure to oo conservativ ve? Managemeent wants to keep fixed charges c low en nough to generaate cash flow fl “at all poin nts in the cyclee.” Will this maake full-cy ycle returns on equity unattractive?
FYE Dece cember 31 2006 22007 Revenue ($mn) 3,530 33,876 Changee (y-y) 1% 10% % of reveenue by major segm ment ($mn): Newsprinnt 41% 41% Coated ppapers 15% 17% 21% Specialtyy papers 16% Market puulp 15% 16% Wood prooducts 8% 9% Shipmentts by segment: Newsprinnt ('000 metric tons) 2,260 22,620 Coated ppapers ('000 short to ns) 797 792 852 1,195 Specialtyy papers ('000 short ttons) Market puulp ('000 metric tonss) 972 907 Wood prooducts (mn board feeet) 1,045 1,111 Average transaction price byy segment: Newsprinnt ($/metric ton) 636 601 Coated ppapers ($/short ton) 720 769 669 699 Specialtyy papers ($/short ton ) Market puulp ($/metric ton) 661 576 Wood prooducts ($/'000 boardd feet) 317 287 Operatingg cost per unit, by seegment: Newsprinnt ($/metric ton) 601 652 Coated ppapers ($/short ton) 667 673 711 741 Specialtyy papers ($/short ton ) Market puulp ($/metric ton) 556 538 Wood prooducts ($/'000 boardd feet) 346 368 Selected items as % of revennue: Cost of reevenue, ex. D&A -76% --83% D&A and timber harvested -9% --10% Distributioon costs -9% --11% Selling annd administrative -5% -7% Non-recuurring items 0% 1% Operatiing income 1% --10% D&A andd timber harvested, bby segment ($mn): Newsprinnt 137 165 Coated ppapers 38 42 109 Specialtyy papers 64 Market puulp 54 53 Wood prooducts 23 18 Corporatee and other 7 9 D&A annd timber harvested 323 396 % of revvenue 10% 9% 2,267 55,648 Total debbt ($mn) Employeees (‘000) 7.4 18.0
2008 6,771 75%
2009 4,366 -336%
2010 4,746 9%
48% 10% 27% 9% 6%
441% 110% 330% 112% 7%
38% 10% 28% 15% 9%
4,746 748 2,425 895 1,556
3,157 571 1,819 946 1,143
3,005 671 1,924 970 1,395
682 882 754 700 269
571 730 731 548 254
600 718 687 737 304
676 713 760 626 313
682 574 685 430 303
657 672 709 596 297
-76% -11% -11% -5% -18% -21%
-777% -114% -111% --5% --3% --9%
-78% -10% -12% -3% 1% -3%
341 37 239 53 40 16 726 11% 5,970 15.9
291 28 151 52 49 31 602 114% 1,465 112.1
225 30 128 49 42 19 493 10% 850 11.0
MAJOR HOLDERS Fairfax 18% | Paulson 5% | Chou 2% % | Third Point 2%
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE A AbitibiBowaterr was forced in nto bankruptcy in April 2009. George Soross has asserted thhat large buyerrs of AbitibiBoowater ccredit default sw waps may havee used their ow wnership of thee company’s deebt to force it innto bankruptcyy in order to reap large C CDS rewards. In I any case, Ab bitibiBowater emerged e as a significantly leaaner and more well-capitalizeed company inn D December 2010 0, with Prem Watsa’s W Fairfax x holding an 18 8% equity stakee in the restrucctured entity. A At best, AbitibiB Bowater m may be a strong g player in a to ough industry, as a newsprint an nd other paper products markkets experiencee long-term chaallenges. W We would like to see the soon n-to-be-releaseed Q4 2010 finaancials prior too making a deffinitive judgmeent on the invesstment m merits. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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A ABITIBIBOWATTER – EBITDA SENSITIVITIES S
A ABITIBIBOWATTER – REVENUEE BREAKDOWN N
A ABITIBIBOWATTER – OPERATING CAPACITY OVERVIEW
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 14, 2011.
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A ABITIBIBOWATTER – EXPECTED RESULTS OF RESTRUCTURIN NG
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 14, 2011.
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AAccuride (AC ACW) — Thir ird Point Evansville, IN, 812-962-5000
Consumer Cyc clical: Auto & Trruck Parts Trading Data
www.aaccuridecorp.com
Consensus EP PS Estimates
Price: $15.32 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $10.10 - $16.34 Market value:: $724 million Enterprise value: $1.3 billion Shares out: 47.2 4 million
Valuatio on
This quarterr Next quarter FYE 12/31/1 10
Lattest n/a n/a n/a
Month Ago n/a n/a n/a
# of Ests n/a n/a n/a
P//E FYE 12/31/09 P//E FYE 12/31/10 P//E FYE 12/31/11 P//E FYE 12/30/12 EV V/ LTM revenue
n/m n/a n/a n/a 1.8x
FYE 12/31/1 11
n/a
n/a
n/a
EV V/ LTM EBIT
32x
Insider ownerrship: 3%
FYE 12/30/1 12
n/a
n/a
n/a
P / tangible book
n/m
Insider buys (last ( six months): 19
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months)): 21 Institutional ownership: 22%
EPS Surpris se n/a
Ownership O Data a
Actu al n/a a
Esti mate n n/a
Greenblatt C Criteria LT TM EBIT yield LT TM pre-tax ROC
3% 13%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
12/31/03 364 3 63 39 (9) (6.11) 1 9 20 (11) ( 43 137 1 123 1 528 5 2 60 489 4 594 5 0 (66) ( 16%
12/31/04 494 103 77 22 14.12 1 58 26 32 72 198 123 563 2 92 487 609 0 (46) 32%
Fiscal Years Y Ended 12/31/05 12 2/31/06 12/31//07 1,229 1,408 1,0 014 217 197 87 145 144 30 (9) 51 65 17.03 18.79 (2.4 46) 4 3 3 92 151 83 40 42 37 52 109 46 48 110 91 352 398 3 313 537 525 5 508 1,220 1,233 1,1 114 0 0 0 198 187 1 150 698 643 5 573 1,045 970 8 840 0 0 0 176 264 2 274 44% 35% 8 8%
12/31/08 931 56 (277) (328) (92.37) 4 (9) 30 (39) 124 308 225 809 0 126 651 882 0 (74) -83%
12/31/09 570 (2) (85) (140) (35.90) 4 (39) 20 (60) 57 199 217 672 398 474 0 900 0 (228) -28%
L LTME 9//30/10 717 52 40 (7) (6.66) 6 (22) 14 (36) 51 227 363 866 0 110 587 832 0 34 13%
FQE E 9/30/09 9 145 5 2 (21)) (33)) (9.16)) 4 (21)) 5 (27)) 25 5 188 8 221 1 663 3 632 2 727 7 0 835 5 0 (172)) n/m m
FQE 9/30/10 206 21 43 12 (0.08) 13 7 3 3 51 227 363 866 0 110 587 832 0 34 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Feb 11
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
A Accuride manu ufactures comm mercial vehicle components. T The company’ss U.S. entities filed f for Chaptter 11 in 2009 and a eexited bankrupttcy in February y 2010.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
One of o the largest manufacturers m s of commerciial vehiclle componentss in North Am merica. Accurid de’s produccts include com mmercial vehiccle wheels, wheeelend co omponents and d assemblies, trruck body and chassis parts, and oth her vehicle com mponents. #1 or #2 market possitions in steell wheels, forged alumin num wheels, brrake drums, dissc wheel hubs,, spoke wheels, metal grills, metal bu umpers, crown n assem mblies, chrome plating p and pollishing, seating g assem mblies and fuel tanks t in comm mercial vehicless. Generrated $200+ million m of EBIT TDA in 2006, implying an EV-to--prior peak EB BITDA of ~4x x. While recent EBITD DA remains well below the 20 006 level, Accuride has significant s earn ning power if th he U.S. commercial c veh hicle industry recovers. r “Freig ght tonnage iss forecasted to o steadily increa ase throughout the next severral years, which h will co ontinue to drive increased dem mand for truck ks and traailers going forrward.” The th hree major segmeents Accuride supplies s (North h America Classs 5-8 veehicles, U.S. traailers, and relatted aftermarkeet channels) have “conttinued to impro ove” y-y in 2010. Guidiing for adj. EB BITDA of $100 0-115 million in 2011 (up ( 51-74% y-y y) on revenue of o $875-925 million n (up 15-21% y-y). y Managem ment expects 20 011 Class 8 production to o be 220,000-2 235,000 units.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Valua ation case depeends on recovery to priorpeak profitability, p which w may be an a unrealistic target for normalized d revenue and margins. m Based d g the on thee midpoint of 2011 EBITDA guidance, implieed EV-to-EBIT TDA multiple exceeds e 8x. ~$225 5 million of nett debt at yeareend 2010 (~3.5 5x 2010 EBITDA). E Desspite wide-reacching financial restruccturing over the past two yearrs, Accuride retainss high leveragee relative to run n-rate EBITDA A. Comp petitors: Alcoaa, ArvinMeritorr, and Hayes Lemm merz in wheels; ArvinMeritor,, Consolidated Metco o, and Webb Wheel Products in i wheel-ends and a assem mblies for heavy y-duty trucks and a commercial trailers; and National Seating in seaating assembliees. The tru uck body/chassis markets aree fragmented. 55% of o 2009 revenu ue from Navisttar, PACCAR, Daimller Truck North h America, and d Volvo/Mack.
1
FYE Dece cember 31 Revenue ($bn) ∆ revennue % of reveenue by segment: Componeents Wheels Other Revenue growth by segmentt: Componeents Wheels Other Gross maargin by segment: Componeents Wheels Other Total grross margin % of reveenue by geography: U.S. Internatioonal Revenue growth by geographhy: U.S. Internatioonal Selected items as % of revennue: Adj. EBITTDA EBIT Net incom me D&A Capex Adjusted EBITDA ($mn) Tangible equity to assets
2006 1.4 15%
20007 11.0 -288%
2008 0.9 -8%
20099 0.66 -39% %
2010 0.8 34%2
48% 48% 3%
488% 477% 44%
53% 42% 5%
52% % 42% % 6% %
54% 37% 8%
20% 9% 23%
-288% -300% -66%
0% -18% 6%
-39% % -39% % -32% %
39% 20% 90%
11% 17% 25% 14%
11% 155% 266% 99%
-4% 17% 28% 6%
-9% % 9% % 25% % 0% %
n/a n/a n/a 8%
95% 5%
866% 144%
83% 17%
86% % 14% %
n/a n/a
15% 15%
-355% 1022%
-11% 10%
-37% % -49% %
n/a n/a
16% 10% 5% 5% 3% 219 -37%
111% 33% -11% 66% 44% 113 -399%
8% -30% -35% 5% 3% 79 -51%
4% % -11% % -25% % 9% % 4% % 244 -98% %
9%3 -1% -10% 7% 3% 663 -12%
Financialls are not compara able throughout the period due to Accu uride’s U.S. entities filin ng for Chapter 11 i n 2009 and exiting bankruptcy in Feb bruary 2010. 2 Revenue e increased due to d demand in the com mmercial vehicle ind dustry. 3 For 2010 0, adjusted EBITDA A excludes $40 million in benefits asso ociated with restructurin ng and reorganizattion items.
COMPARRABLE PUBLIC COMPANY AN NALYSIS
MGA DAN ARM AXL ACW
MV ($mn) 14,220 2,620 1,780 1,030 720
EV ($mn n) 12,69 90 3,21 10 2,54 40 1,80 00 1,26 60
EV / Rev. .6x .5x .7x .8x 1.8x
P/ Tan ng. Bo ook 2.1 1x 5.8 8x n/m n/m n/m
This FY P/E n/a 29x 21x 8x n/a
Ne ext FY Y P//E n//a 16 6x 8xx 6xx n//a
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders 1% | Third Pooint 8% | Whipppoorwill 8% | Y York 7% | % | Tinicum 6% % | Cetus 6% | Apollo 4% | B Brigade 1% FMR 7%
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE A As one of the laargest manufaccturers of comm mercial vehiclee components iin North Amerrica, Accuride sstands to beneffit as U.S. ffreight tonnagee recovers. A reeturn to 10+% operating marg gins appears likkely in such a recovery scenaario. While thee recent vvaluation is und demanding relaative to prior-p peak earnings, shares are not cheap when m measured againsst “through-thee-cycle” eearnings achiev ved since 2006//07 (EV-to-aveerage FY06-10 0 EBITDA is ~ ~10x). Moreoveer, the leverageed balance sheet, with no taangible asset backing, leaves the business vu ulnerable if a reecovery in com mmercial vehiclee markets fails to sustain itself. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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A ACCURIDE – OU UR ESTIMATE OF O THE EQUITY Y FAIR VALUE RANGE R ($ in millions) Valuation metho odology Midpoint of 2011 adj. EBITDA guidance
1
Conservativ ve
Base Case
Aggre essive
8x estimated 2 2011 EBITDA min nus maintenance ccapex
10x estimated 2011 E BITDA minus main ntenance capex
12x estim mated 2011 EBITDA A minus maintenance capex
108
108
10 08
Minus: Estimate ed maintenance capex c
(20)
(20)
(2 20)
Estimated 2011 adj. EBITDA minus maintenance e capex
$88
$88
$8 88
Fair value multip ple
8.0x
10.0x
12 2.0x
Estimated enterrprise value
$700
$875
$1,,050
Minus: Net debtt (as of 12/31/10))
(224)
(224)
(22 24)
2
3
Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Accuride e Implied 2010 ad dj. FCF yield
4
Implied EV-to-2 2010 adj. EBITDA A Implied EV-to-2 2010 revenue Implied EV-to-re evenue based on n midpoint of 201 11 guidance
5
$476 millio on
$ $651 million
$826 m million
$10.31 per sh hare
$14 4.10 per share
$17.89 p per share
3%
2%
2 2%
11x
13x
16x
0.9x
1.1x
1..4x
0.8x
1.0x
1..2x
1
The company is gu uiding for adjusted EBITDA of $100-115 million in 2011 (up 51-74% y-y). 2 Approximates 2010 capex. 3 on shares outstanding. Based on 46 millio 4 Based on adjusting 2010 reported fre ee cash flow of neg gative $28 million by the $44 million off cash outflows rela ated to financial resstructuring. 5 uiding for revenue of $875-925 million n in 2011 (up 15-21 1% y-y). The company is gu S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
A ACCURIDE – CA APITAL STRUCTTURE
1
Market value of co onvertible notes on February 26, 2010 0 and June 30, 2010 was $284.7 millio on and $319.4 milliion, respectively. M Market value of convertible notes o on September 30, 2010 2 was $285.3 million. m 2 Assumes 100% pa articipation in recen ntly announced con nversion offer for th he 7.5% convertible e notes due 2020. S Source: Company presentation p dated November 2010.
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A ACCURIDE – “P POSITIONED FO OR END MARKET REBOUND”
S Source: Company presentation p dated November 2010.
A ACCURIDE – 20011 BUILD FOR RECASTS
S Source: Company presentation p dated November 2010.
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AAnheuser-BBusch InBevv (BUD) — Markel M Leuven, Belg ium, 32-16-247-7111
Consumer Non n-Cyclical: Beve erages (Alcoholic) Trading Data Price: $54.90 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $43.19 - $64.77 Market value:: $87.4 billion Enterprise value: $129.7 billio on Shares out: 1,592.3 million
www.ab-inbev.com
Consensus EP PS Estimates
This quarte er Next quarte er FYE 12/31//10
La atest $ 0.75 0.79 3.17
Month h Ago o $0.74 4 0.80 0 3.14 4
Valu uation # of Ests 4 2 7
P P/E FYE 12/31/0 09 P P/E FYE 12/31/1 10 P P/E FYE 12/31/1 11 P P/E FYE 12/30/1 12 E EV/ LTM revenue
19x 17x 14x 13x 3.6x
FYE 12/31//11
3.82
3.77 7
8
E EV/ LTM EBIT
12x
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 12/30//12
4 4.32
4.33 3
6
P / tangible bookk
n/m
Insider buys (last ( six months): 0
LT growth
16 6.9%
15.7% %
2
Insider sales (last six months)): 0 Institutional ownership: 3%
EPS Surpriise 11/3/10
Ownership O Data a
Actu ual $0. 94
Esstimate $ $0.90
Greenbla att Criteria L LTM EBIT yield L LTM pre-tax ROC C
8% >100%
Operating Perfo ormance and Fiinancial Positio on ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
Fiscal Years E Ended 12/31/06 1 12/3 1/07 12/31/08 8 16,692 19 ,735 23,507 7 9,822 11 ,617 13,171 1 3,917 5 ,872 5,153 3 1,754 3 ,005 1,927 7 1.79 3.06 1.93 3 972 976 999 9 4,122 5 ,557 5,533 3 1,731 2 ,162 2,652 2 2,391 3 ,395 2,881 1 3,206 6 2 ,213 8 ,153 10,831 1 22 ,205 73,881 1 42 ,247 113,748 8 12,066 6 2 ,235 9 ,841 23,167 7 7 ,633 48,039 9 22 ,190 91,306 6 0 0 20 ,057 22,442 2 7 73% 42% %
12/31/09 36,758 19,560 10,940 4,613 2.90 1,584 9,124 1,713 7,411 3,744 10,853 75,290 112,525 2,043 14,254 47,049 82,207 0 30,318 79%
LTME 9/30/10 36,121 19,857 10,670 4,337 2.71 1,586 n/a n/a n/a 4,698 11,729 74,579 111,495 2,772 14,734 44,244 79,710 0 31,785 >100%
FQE 9/3 30/09 9 9,763 5 5,258 3 3,253 1,546 0.97 1,586 3 3,704 1,537 2 2,167
FQE E 9/30/10 9,323 5,193 2,888 1,434 0.90 1,591 n/a n/a n/a 4,698 11,729 74,579 111,495 2,772 14,734 44,244 79,710 0 31,785 m n/m
Ten-Year Stock Price Perrformance and T Trading Volume e Dynamics
$70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Feb 10
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Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
B Belgium-based d Anheuser-Bussch InBev prod duces beer.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
#1 breewer in the wo orld with top market m share in nearly y every major beer market. AB InBev is #1 # in the U.S. (49% market share), Brrazil (69%), Canad da (42%) and Mexico M (56%). It is #2 in Russia (16%)) and Germany (9%), and #3 in China (11% %).* Beneffits from scale advantages in n consolidated d markeets as well as global g brands, including Budweiser, Stella Arrtois, and Beck k’s.** ~140 glob bal beer plants produced ~95 million heectoliters in 3Q Q10. r trading at an 8% % Sharees offer good risk-reward adjustted FCF yield.*** With rough hly one third off revenu ue from Brazil and a China, and d Mexico expossure via a 50% 5 interest in n Modelo, grow wth prospects are a attracttive. Pricing pow wer due to stro ong market sharres and brrands should affford protection n from cost rises. Grew organic reven nue 5% y-y in 3Q10 (volume up 4% %), despite a flaat result in N. America A (volum me down 2%) and a volu ume-driven 5% % decline in West Europe. Volume grew w 13% in Brazzil, 8% in Chin na. Owns 50% of Grup po Modelo, Meexico’s top breweer. The stake iss worth ~$10 biillion at markett.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
~55% % of revenue (~ ~60% of adj. EBITDA) E is frrom maturre markets in U.S./Canada and a Europe, where organic revenue growth is a challenge. her margin imp provement ma ay be difficultt as Furth synerg gies from the Anheuser-Busch A h merger in ‘08 are mostly y realized and in nput costs coulld continue risin ng. Reinv vestment of cash flow into em merging mark kets carriees risks, includiing overpaying g for M&A. $42 biillion of net deebt at June 30, 2010 (~3x ‘10E adj. EB BITDA). $18 billion b of debt is due by 2013 3.
*
Based on ‘09 mark ket share. Mexico presence p is through h 50% stake in Mod delo. AB InBev owns/m manages ~200 bran nds in total. Owned d brands also includ de ““multi-country” braands Leffe and Hoeegaarden, as well ass “local championss” suuch as Bud Light, Skol, Brahma, Quiilmes, Michelob, Löwenbräu, L Spaten,, H Harbin, Sedrin, Klin nskoye, Sibirskayaa Korona, Chernigiv vske, and Jupiler. **** 1H10 annualized d FCF (incl. adjustm ment for Modelo sttake at market valu ue). ***
CCOMPARABLE PUBLIC P COMPA ANY ANALYSISS
HINKY TAP BUD
MV ($mn) 29,77 70 8,47 70 87,42 20
EV ($mn) 41,210 9,210 129,740
EV / Rev. R 1.8x 2.8x 3.6x 3
P/ Tang. Book n/m 5.1x n/m
This FY P/E 16x 12x 17x
Next FY P/E 13x 11x 14x
1
FYE Dece cember 31 2008 2009 ∆ organicc volume2 0% -1% ∆ organicc revenue2 5% 3% 5% 44% ∆ volumee ∆ revenu e 19% 56% ∆ employyees 54% -15% Revenue ($bn) 23.5 36.8 % of reveenue by segment: North Am merica 16% 42% Latin Ameerica – North (mostlyy Brazil) 33% 21% Latin Ameerica – South (mostlly Argentina) 8% 5% Western Europe 20% 12% 14% 7% Central aand Eastern Europe Asia Paciific 6% 5% Global exxport/holding compaanies 3% 8% Revenue growth by selected segment (organic): North Am merica 8% 1% Latin Ameerica - North 5% 13% Latin Ameerica - South 29% 15% Western Europe -2% -2% 4% 1% Central aand Eastern Europe Asia Paciific 8% 2% Adj. EBITTDA margin by seleccted segment (ex. sppecial items): North Am merica 35% 38% Latin Ameerica - North 46% 46% Latin Ameerica - South 44% 46% Western Europe 20% 23% 17% 24% Central aand Eastern Europe Asia Paciific 23% 18% Total aadj. EBITDA margin 33% 35% Selected items as % of revennue: Gross proofit 56% 53% EBIT exccl. special items 25% 28% Net incom me 8% 13% Net cash from ops 24% 25% D&A 8% 8% Capex 11% 5% Volume ( million hectoliters)5 285 409 ∆ shares out (avg) 2% 59%
YTD 9/30/10 2% 4% -3%3 -2%3 -3%3 26.8 44% 26% 5% 11% 5% 5% 4% -2% 19% 14% -3% 0% 8% 42% 46% 45% 29% 20% 17% 37% 55% 30% 11% 24%4 7% 6%4 299 1%
Financialls include Anheuse er-Busch from its accquisition in Novem mber 2008. “Organic”” excludes the impa act of exchange rates and acquisition ns/divestitures. 4 Declines mainly reflect the iimpact of divestiturres. Estimated. 5 ~90% of YTD volume is bee er (99+% own beerr); 1 hectoliter=100 0 liters. 2 3
MAJOR HOLDERS Non-Sti chting insiderss <1% | Stichtinng AB InBev 553%* * Includes entities acting in cconcert with the Stichting, which is a foundation Brazilian foundingg families. representinng the interests off the Belgian and B
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE A AB InBev repreesents an oppo ortunity to com mpound capital at a superior riskk-adjusted rates of return withh the undisputeed market leader in the glo obal beer indusstry. Cash flow w can be reinveested from matu ture into high-ggrowth marketss at likely attraactive inncremental returns due to glo obal brands and d strong local presence p (~70% % market sharee in Brazil). Raapid deleveragiing after thhe Anheuser-B Busch deal in 2008 2 (helped by y disposals) should soon enabble more aggresssive return of capital. We donn’t know oof many other firms f that tradee at an ~8% FC CF yield and haave such dominnance in an inddustry as attracctive as the beeer business. W While growth challenges c in Europe E /U.S. – and leverage – may be reasonns, the risk-rew ward appears atttractive nonettheless. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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A ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV – OUR O ESTIMATEE OF THE EQUITTY FAIR VALUEE RANGE ($ in billions) Valuation metho odology 1
Estimated 2010 0 revenue 2 Estimated 2010 0 adj. EBITDA ma argin Estimated 2010 0 adj. EBITDA 3 Minus: Estimate ed 2010 capex Estimated 2010 0 EBITDA minus maintenance capex Fair value multip ple Estimated enterrprise value 4 Plus: Grupo Mo odelo stake 5 Minus: Net debtt 5 Minus: Net emp ployee benefits 5 Minus: Non-con ntrolling interest 6
Estimated fair value of the equ uity of AB InBev v Implied 1H10 an nnualized FCF yield y 7 Implied 2009 dividend yield 8 Implied EV-to-ru un-rate adj. EBIT TDA 8 Implied EV-to-ru un-rate revenue
Co onservative
Bas se Case
Aggres ssive
10x estimated trailing ad dj. EB BITDA minus maintenance capex
12x estima ated trailing adj. EBITD DA minus mainten nance capex
14x estimated d trailing adj. EBITDA minus maintenance capex
$36.0 37.5% $13.5 (2.1) $11.4 10.0x $114.0 9.8 (42.1) (2.5) (3.2) $76 $ billion $4 48 per ADS 9.1% 1.2% 8.6x 3.2x
$ $36.0 3 37.5% $ $13.5 ((2.1) $ $11.4 1 12.0x $ 136.8 9.8 (4 42.1) ((2.5) ((3.2) $99 9 billion $62 per ADS 7 7.0% 0 0.9% 9.7x 3.8x
$36 6.0 37.5 5% $13 3.5 (2.1 1) $11.4 14.0 0x $159 9.6 9.8 8 (42.1) (2.5 5) (3.2 2) $121 b billion $76 perr ADS 5.7% 0.7% 11.3 3x 4.5 5x
1
Annualized revenu ue is $35.8 billion based b on revenue during d the first nine-months of 2010. 3Q10 EBITDA margin is 37.9%, excluding special items s (1Q-3Q10: 37.2% %). 3 uiding for net capita al expenditures of $2.0-2.2 $ billion in 20 010, representing ~ ~6% of estimated rrevenue. D&A is an n estimated ~7% off revenue. Management is gu 4 The company has a 50% effective eq quity interest in Gru upo Modelo, Mexico o's leading brewer and owner of the C Corona brand. Thiss stake is accounted d for as an e equity-method inves stment. Our valuation is based on the recent market valu ue of Grupo Modelo o. The total value o of "investments in a associates" on the balance sheet o of AB InBev was $6 6.8 billion at June 30, 2010. 5 Based on balance sheet values as off June 30, 2010. 6 Based on 1,591 million m ADS outstand ding (1 ADS = 1 ord dinary share). 7 Based on the 2009 9 dividend of $0.55 5 per ADS declared d for 2009. The com mpany has adopted d a more conservattive dividend payou ut following the merrger with A Anheuser-Busch in late 2008, as the primary p use of cash h flow has been me erger-related debt p paydown. 8 zing 1Q-3Q10 finan ncials. Based on annualiz S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e 2
G GLOBAL CONSU UMER PRODUCCTS COMPANIEES – $1+ BILLION BRANDS vvs. EBITDA
Annual EBITDA ($ bil lions) S Source: Company presentation p dated November 17, 2010.
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A ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV – MARKET M POSITTION IN FASTEST-GROWING GLOBAL BEER MARKETS
1
AB InBev holds dirrectly and indirectly y a 50.2% stake in Modelo. SAB Miller holds a 49% stake in Chin na Resource Beverrages. 3 Heineken holds a 37.5% stake in United Breweries Limited. S Source: Company presentation p dated November 17, 2010. 2
A ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV – MARKET M SHAR RE IN TOP 10 GLOBAL G BEER ““MARGIN POOLS”
1
AB InBev holds dirrectly and indirectly y a 50.2% interest in i Modelo FEMSA Cerveza was w acquired by He eineken in April 201 10 S Source: Company presentation p dated November 17, 2010. 2
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BBP (BP) — Blue Ridgee , BP Cappital , Cho hou , Gree eenlight www.bp.com m
London, EN, Unnited Kingdom, 800-638--5672
Energy: Oil & Gas G - Integrated d Trading Data
Consensus EP PS Estimates
Price: $47.93 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $26.75 - $60.98 Market value:: $149.9 billion Enterprise value: $170.8 billio on Shares out: 3,126.7 3 million
Valua ation
This quarter Next quarterr FYE 12/31/11
Lattest $1 1.66 1 1.69 5 5.89
Month Ago $1.76 1.80 6.20
# of Ests 4 4 11
P P/E FYE 12/31/10 0 P P/E FYE 12/31/11 1 P P/E FYE 12/30/12 2 P P/E FYE 12/30/13 3 E EV/ LTM revenue e
n/m 8x 7x 9x 0.6x
FYE 12/30/12
6 6.45
6.68
10
E EV/ LTM EBIT
n/m
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 12/30/13
5 5.31
8.11
4
P / tangible book
2.1x
Insider buys (last ( six months): 0
LT growth
5..0%
5.0%
1
Insider sales (last six months)): 0 Institutional ownership: 10%
EPS Surpris se 2/1/11
Ownership O Data a
Actu ual $1.3 39
Greenblattt Criteria
Est imate $1 1.60
LT TM EBIT yield LT TM pre-tax ROC C
-2% -3%
Operating O Perfo ormance and Fin nancial Position n ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
12/31//04 196,6 604 51,2 219 25,7 746 17,0 088 4.78 3,6 637 23,3 378 12,2 286 11,0 092 1,3 359 61,4 443 15,0 062 194,6 630 10,1 184 63,1 126 12,9 907 117,7 738 0 76,8 892 26 6%
12/31/05 245,486 60,868 32,182 22,024 6.13 3,521 26,721 12,281 14,440 2,960 75,290 15,143 206,914 8,932 71,997 10,230 127,253 21 79,640 33%
Fiscal Years Y Ended 12/31/06 12 2/31/07 12/31 1/08 274,316 291,438 2 367,0 053 63,840 64,757 73,3 315 35,658 32,352 35,2 239 155 22,313 20,843 21,1 6.64 6.47 6 6.69 132 3,338 3,194 3,1 28,172 24,709 38,0 095 15,125 17,830 22,6 658 13,047 6,879 15,4 437 2,590 3,562 8,1 197 75,339 80,202 66,3 384 138 16,026 17,658 20,1 217,601 236,076 2 228,2 238 12,924 15,394 15,7 740 75,352 77,231 69,7 793 11,086 15,651 17,4 464 132,977 142,386 136,9 935 21 21 21 84,603 93,669 91,2 282 36% 30% 3 32%
12/31/09 246,138 59,164 26,426 16,576 5.25 3,122 27,716 20,650 7,066 8,339 67,653 20,168 235,968 9,109 59,320 25,518 134,355 0 101,613 24%
12/31/10 308,928 28,102 (3,702) (3,721) (1.19) 3,131 13,616 18,421 (4,805) 20,088 96,853 22,896 272,262 14,626 83,879 30,710 177,275 0 94,987 -3%
LTME 1 12/31/10 3 308,928 22,858 (3,393) (3,721) (1.24) 3,131 13,616 18,421 (4,805) 24,444 96,853 22,896 2 272,262 14,626 83,879 30,710 177,275 0 94,987 -3%
F FQE 12/31 1/09 73,,636 17,,395 6,,934 4,,294 1 1.36 3,,125 7,,288 5,,647 1,,641 13,,306 67,,653 20,,168 235,,968 9,,109 59,,320 25,,518 134,,355 0 101,,613 n/m
FQE 12/31/10 83,988 18,127 8,905 5 5,566 1.76 3,132 (178)) 5,118 (5,296)) 24,444 96,853 22,896 272,262 14,626 83,879 30,710 177,275 5 0 94,987 n/m
Ten-Year Stock S Price Perfformance and T Trading Volume e Dynamics
$90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Feb 02
Feb 03
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA
B BP is an integraated oil and gaas producer.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
Proveed reserves of 18.1 billion ba arrels of oil equiva alents (boe) att yearend 2010 and 3.8 millio on boe off average daily production in 2010 (implied d reserve life is ~13 yeears). Reservess are split rough hly 65/35% % between oil and natural gaas; ~55% are develo oped, and rough hly a third are based in the U.S. U Adjussted EV/boe off proved reserrves is ~$11 versuss an average $15+ $ for U.S./E European peeers. Enterp prise value is adjusted to inclu ude $23 billion n of remain ning Gulf of Mexico M (GOM) oil spill provissions and $10 billion b of pensiion provisions. BP’s production p costts averaged ~$7/boe since 20 007. Divideend reinstatem ment signals reducing GOM Mrelated pressures an nd cash flow resilience. r Thee annuallized 4Q10 div vidend, which remains r at 50% % of the 20 009 pre-oil spilll dividend, yiellds ~4%. 2010 adj. EB BITDA of $43 billion is up 23% 2 y-y due to higherr oil prices (adjj. EV/2010 EB BITDA is <5x). Long--term earning power is larg gely unaffected d as BP’s asset a base remaains mostly intact. Yearend 2010 reserves r are do own only 1% deespite disposalls. “Resources” of 50 biillion boe are up u 10+% y-y. on of asset disp posals, of whicch Targeeting $30 billio $21+ billion b has alreeady been anno ounced through h Januarry ‘11 (at impliied $12/boe off proved reserves). Annou unced share sw wap and globa al alliance witth Rosneeft in January. Pending deal completion, BP B will ow wn 11% of Rosneft (incl. existing 1% stakee). Rosneeft will own 5% % of BP’s enlarrged shares.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Ultimate GOM oil spill s liability may m be much maining $23 billion provision n. largerr than the rem BP too ok a $41 billion n pre-tax charg ge and has paid d $18 biillion of cash in n 2010. It plans to contribute $5 billion n of cash p.a. in nto a trust fund d through 2013. Additiional claims/fin nes may requirre further cash. Reinv vestment risk. Oil and gas aree depleting asseets. The co ost of finding new n reserves may m go up just as a much, if not more, th han selling pricces. Historical profitss may lag realitty due to GAA AP accounting. $26 biillion of net deebt (0.6x 2010 adj. EBITDA)).
M MAJOR HOLDER RS* IInsiders <1% | BlackRock 6% % | L&G 5% | State S Street 1% % *
Does not reflect th he pending share swap s with Russia-b based Rosneft, wh hich iss due to own 5% of o the enlarged shaare capital of BP affter the deal.
1
FYE Dece cember 31 2005 2006 20007 Proved reeserves (Bboe)1 17.9 17.7 17.8 ∆ proveed reserves -2% -1% 1% 128 PV-10, affter-tax ($bn)2 91 1176 Δ oil/gas production 0% -2% --3% Δ avg reaalized oil price 37% 22% 14% Δ avg reaalized gas price -4% --4% 27% Δ product ction costs 33% 5% 26% ∆ refineryy intake -8% -8% --3% Δ revenu e 25% 11% 7% Revenue ($bn) 240 266 2284 % of reveenue by segment: Exploratioon/Production 26% 26% 23% Refining/M Marketing 87% 888% 89% Corporatee/Eliminations --15% -13% -11% Revenue growth by selected segment: Exploratioon/Production 25% 10% --3% Refining/M Marketing 31% 9% 8% Adjusted EBIT margin by seleected segment:4 Exploratioon/Production 43% 46% 442% Refining/M Marketing 2% 1% 2% Total addj. EBIT margin 13% 10% 13% 39% % of reveenue from U.S. 36% 336% Selected items as % of revennue: EBIT 14% 13% 11% Net incom me 8% 7% 9% DD&A 3% 4% 4% Capex 6% 6% 5% Selected Exploration/Producttion segment data: Avg oil prrice, $/boe 48.5 59.2 667.5 Avg gas pprice, $/mcf 4.9 4.7 4.5 Productioon cost, $/boe 5.7 4.5 7.1 35% Return onn tang. equity 33% 29% Tangible equity/assets 34% 34% 334% -3% ∆ shares out (avg) -5% --4%
2008 18.1 2% 57 1% 34% 32% 1% 1% 27% 361
20009 18.3 1% % 889 4% % -38% % -46% % -12% % 6% % -34% % 2339
2010 18.1 -1% n/a -4% 30% 22% 13%3 6% 24% 297
24% 89% -12%
24% % 89% % -13% %
22% 90% -12%
31% 28%
-33% % -33% %
15% 25%
46% 1% 12% 34%
38% % 2% % 9% % 35% %
42% 2% 11% 33%
10% 6% 3% 6%
11% % 7% % 5% % 9% %
-1%5 -1% 4% 6%
90.2 6.0 7.2 29% 35% -2%
56.3 3.3 6.4 22% % 36% % 0% %
73.4 4.0 7.13 -5% 33% 0%
In billionss of oil-equivalent b barrels, net (incl. BP P’s share of equity investees). Based on n SEC method. Inclludes BP share of e entities. equity-accounted e Estimate d. 4 Excludess inventory gains/lo osses (and other no on-operating items in 2007-10). 2010 exclu udes $41 billion GO OM oil spill charge (pre-tax, pre-partne er recovery). 5 As reportted (includes GOM oil spill charge and d other items). 2 3
COMPARRABLE PUBLIC COMPANY AN NALYSIS
XOM RDS.A CVX BP
MV ($mn) 426,100 221,390 198,670 149,870
EV ($ $mn) 43 32,140 25 52,280 19 94,760 17 70,760
EV / Rev. 1.1x .7x 1.0x .6x
P/ Tang. Book 2.9x 1.5x 2.0x 2.1x
This FY P/E 12x 11x 9x 8x
Next FY P/E 10x 10x 9x 7x
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE D Despite significcant share pricee appreciation since the lowss related to the Gulf of Mexicco oil spill in 20010, BP continnues to trrade at an estim mated 25+% diiscount to its peers, based on enterprise valuue per oil-equiivalent barrel oof proved reservves. This is after adjustin ng BP’s enterprrise value for th he remaining $23 $ billion of sspill-related proovisions. While the ultimate aamount of thhe liability rem mains uncertain n, BP’s 2010 ad djusted EBITD DA of $43 billioon dwarfs the $$18 billion of ccash costs incuurred thhrough 2010. The T recently reeinstated divideend, which yields a decent ~44%, has the pottential to moree than double oover time. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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B BP – OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY E FAIR VALUE V RANGE ($ in billions)
Valuation metho odology
Value of proved d reserves:
Conservattive
Base Case
Ag ggressive
Valuation of proved reserves only (based d on implied $/bo oe of announce ed asset dispossals of ~$12/bo oe)
Valuattion of proved rreserves (~$13/bo oe) plus valu ue of addittional "resou urces"
Va aluation of provved reserves (~$1 14/boe) plus vvalue of a additional "re esources"
1
Proved reserves s, including share of equity inves stees, as of 12/31 1/10 2
Fair value "multtiple"
Fair value of prroved reserves (A)
18 billion b boe
18 billio on boe
18 billion boe
$12.00 per boe
$13.00 per boe
$14.00 per boe
$217 billio on
$235 b billion
$2 253 billion
3
Value of additio onal "resources":
Additional "reso ources" as of 12/3 31/10
50 billion b boe
50 billio on boe
50 billion boe
$0 per bo oe
$0.50 p per boe
$1.00 per boe
$0
$25 b billion
$5 50 billion
$217 billio on
$260 b billion
$3 304 billion
-$26 billio on
-$26 b billion
-$ $26 billion
-23 billion n
-20 b billion
-15 billion
-10 billion n
-10 b billion
-10 billion
-1 billion n
-1 biillion
--1 billion
$157 billio on
$204 b billion
$2 252 billion
$50 per AD DS
$65 pe er ADS
$80 0 per ADS
13%
10 0%
8%
3%
3% %
2%
7%
5% %
4%
5.1x
6.1x
7.1x
Implied fair valu ue of the equity to o tangible book
2.2x
2.8 8x
3.5x
Implied EV per boe of proved re eserves
$12
$1 14
$17
Implied EV per boe of total "reso ources" (proved reserves+additio r onal resources)
$3
$ $4
$4
4
Fair value "multtiple"
Fair value of ad dditional "resou urces" (B) Estimated total enterprise value (A) + (B) 5
Minus: Net debtt
6
Minus: Remaining liability for Gu ulf of Mexico oil spill s Minus: Provision n for post-retirem ment benefits Minus: Non-con ntrolling interest
5
5
Estimated fair value of the equ uity of BP
7
8
Implied 2010 ad dj. earnings yield d Implied run-rate e dividend yield
9
Implied 2009 dividend yield Implied EV-to-2 2010 adj. EBITDA A (including share re of profit from equity e investees)
8
1
As of year-end 2010, BP had proved reserves of 18.1 billion b oil-equivalentt barrels (including its share of reserve es in equity investe ees) with an implied d reserve life o of 13 years based on o 2010 production. Conventional oil represents r ~50% of reserves, with the e remainder largelyy represented by de eepwater oil and cconventional/LNG gas. g ~55% of prove ed reserves are dev veloped. About one e third of reserves a are located in the U U.S. and ~20% in R Russia through a sta ake in TNKB BP). BP also has sig gnificant reserves in i the North Sea, Azerbaijan, A and Ang gola, among otherss. Total headline prroceeds of >$21 billion from announce ed disposals th hrough January 2011 (out of total targ geted disposals of ~$30 ~ billion) relate to proved reservess and non-proved rresources of 1.7bn boe and 3.2bn boe e, re espectively, of whic ch 0.4bn boe and 1.8bn 1 boe are base ed on disposals com mpleted in 2010 (exxcluded from our re eserve/resources figures above). 2
For reference, the implied value of BP's announced disp posals of $21+ billion is $12+ per boe e of proved reserve es. We estimate the e average valuation n of U.S.b based competitors Exxon E Mobil (includ ding recently acquired XTO Energy), Chevron C and Cono ocoPhillips at an avverage enterprise va alue to barrel of oil-equivalent of ~ ~$15/boe. Based on n our analysis, a se elect peer group of European-based in ntegrated oil and ga as producers has rrecently traded at a an average implied enterprise vvalue to barrel of oill-equivalent proved d reserves of ~$17//boe. The peer grou up includes Shell, T Total, Eni and OMV V. 3
Per BP's disclosurre in February 2011 1, it had 50.2 billion n boe of "non-prove ed resources" in ad ddition to its proved d reserves at year-end 2010.
4
equivalent resources in our conservattive case. As timing and ultim mate recoverability of additional resou urces is uncertain, we w attach zero valu ue per barrel of oil-e
5
Per balance sheett values as of Dece ember 31, 2010.
6
BP took a spill-rela ated charge of $40.9 billion (pre-tax) in 2010. After 2010 0 cash payments off $17.7 billion (inclu uding $5.0 billion into a trust fund), the e remaining p provision is $23.3 billion as of yearend d 2010. BP expects s to fund $5.0 billion n of cash into a trusst fund in each of 2 2011, 2012 and 201 13. While our conse ervative case a assumes the presen nt value of total rem maining liabilities ap pproximate the yea arend 2010 provisio on value of ~$23 billion, our estimatess in the base and aggressive ccases are modestly lower. This is main nly to reflect the tim me value of money (the eventual amou unt and timing of ca ash outflows largely depend on politiccal and legal p processes). Underly ying our estimates is the assumption that t BP will not face e substantial furthe er costs beyond exiisting provisions fro om oil spill-related litigation and in nvestigations, mostt of which are still pending. p 7
Based on 3.13 billion American Depo ositary Shares (ADS) outstanding. On ne ADS equals 6 orrdinary BP shares. Our share count does not include 989 9 million new o ordinary shares (~165 million ADS) to be issued to Rosne eft as part of a dea al announced in Jan nuary 2011. Pendin ng the completion o of the deal, Rosnefft will own 5% o of BP. In return, BP will receive Rosne eft shares that will expand e its existing stake in Rosneft fro om ~1% to 10+%. In addition to the sshare swap, BP and d Rosneft are fo orming a global stra ategic alliance focu used on oil and gas s exploration in the Arctic Sea. 8
Adjusted to exclud de Gulf of Mexico spill response charg ges, inventory holdiing gains/losses, a nd other non-opera ating items.
9
Based on annualiz zing the 4Q10 divid dend of $0.42 per ADS. A BP reinstated a dividend in Febrruary 2011 after susspending payments after the 2010 GO OM oil spill.
S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
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B BP – GULF OF MEXICO M OIL SP PILL COSTS AND PROVISIONSS (pre-tax, pree partner recovvery)
*
Balance sheet amo ount includes all prrovisions, other pay yables and the reim mbursement asset b balances related to o the Gulf of Mexico o oil spill.
B BP – 2010 UND DERLYING PER RFORMANCE
1 2 3
Adjusted for the co osts associated with the Gulf of Mexic co oil spill, other No on-Operating Itemss and Fair Value Acccounting Effects. Reserves and reso ource replacement, as reported on a combined c basis of subsidiaries and eq quity accounted en ntities, excluding accquisitions and dive estments. Adjusted for non-o operating items, fairr value timing effec cts and the environm ment effect of refin ing margins, petrocchemical margins, forex and energy ccosts.
B BP – 2011 GUIIDANCE
* ***
Cash from disposa als including deposits of $6.2bn receiv ved at year end 201 10 relating to dispo osal transactions exxpected to complette in subsequent pe eriods. Excluding the effe ects of changes in exchange e rates and d fuel costs. A full definition d of cash co osts can be found o on bp.com. Excluding the imp pact of the Gulf of Mexico M oil spill.
****
S Source for the abov ve charts: Company y presentation date ed February 1, 2011 1.
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BBrookfield Infrastructu I ure Partnerrs (BIP) — Pabrai P Trad ding Data Price: $23.55 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $14.95 - $23.79 Market value:: $2.7 billion Enterprise value: $3.1 billion Shares out: 113.0 million Owne ership Data
brookfieldinfrastructure.com
Hamiltton, Bermuda, 416-956-55154
Utilities: Electrric Utilities
Consensu us EPS Estimate es
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/11
Latest n/a n/a n/a
Mont h Ago o n/a a n/a a n/a a
# of Ests n/a n/a n/a
P/E FYE 12/31 1/10 P/E FYE 12/31 1/11 P/E FYE 12/30 0/12 P/E FYE 12/30 0/13 EV/ LTM reven nue
6x n/a n/a n/a 5.0x
FYE 12/30/12
n/a
n/a a
n/a
EV/ LTM EBIT T
25x
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 12/30/13
n/a
n/a a
n/a
P / tangible bo ook
n/m
Insider buys (last ( six months): 0
LT growth
n/a
n/a a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months)): 0 Institutional ownership: 55%
EPS Surprise n/a n
Actual n//a
Gre eenblatt Criteria a
Esstimate n/a
LTM EBIT yield d LTM pre-tax R ROC
4% 3%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position Fisca al Years Ended 12/31/09 9 12/31/10 290 0 634 92 2 221 (70 0) 495 5 467 25 0.52 2 4.25 8 110 48 22 2 42 0 0 22 2 42 10 7 154 195 5 2,244 3,494 89 7 6,046 6 13,109 0 615 102 2 2,743 0 0 4,169 9 9,729 9 23 19 1,858 8 3,357 -4% % 10%
($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
LTME 12/31/10 634 n/a 125 496 4.25 110 n/a n/a n/a 154 2,244 3,494 13,109 615 2,743 0 9,729 23 3,357 3%
FQE 12/31/10 634 221 495 467 4.25 110 n/a n/a n/a 154 2,244 3,494 13,109 615 2,743 0 9,729 23 3,357 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0 Feb b 08
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Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1 Pro-forma2 FYE Dece cember 31 2009 2010 2010 Proportioonate FFO by segmeent ($mn):3 Utilities 61 144 200 Transportrt and Energy 13 91 175 Timber -3 11 11 Corporatee/Other -22 -49 -58 Proporttionate FFO 49 197 328 Proportioonate FFO less mainntenance capex (AFFFO) by segment ($m mn):4 Utilities 49 131 180 Transportrt and Energy 13 58 91 Timber -9 8 8 Corporatee/Other -22 -49 -55 Proporttionate AFFO 31 148 224 Proportioonate invested partneership capital ($bn):5 1.8 2.9 2.9 % of propportionate invested ppartnership capital bby selected segmentt: Utilities 39% 38% 45% Transportrt and Energy 26% 46% 43% Timber 31% 18% 16% Proportioonate AFFO yield byy segment:6 Utilities 15% 15% 14% Transportrt and Energy 15% 9% 7% Timber -2% 2% 2% Proporttionate AFFO yield 4% 8% 8% Total asssets ($bn) 6.0 13.1 13.1 Selected items as % of total aassets: Cash andd equivalents 2% 1% 1% Goodwill//intangible assets 15% 27% 27% Other asssets (mainly PP&E) 83% 72% 72% Debt (99++% non-recourse) 33% 35% 35% Other liabbilities 15% 27% 27% Non-conttrolling interest 21% 12% 12% Partnershhip capital 31% 26% 26% ∆ units ouut (period-end) n/m 48% 48%
B Brookfield Infrrastructure Parttners L.P. (BIP P), owns and ooperates infrasttructure assets through three segments: s * U Utilities (2010 FFO: $200 miillion): Includees an 85 million n toonne coal expo ort terminal in Australia A (accounts for ~20% of gglobal seabornee met coal expo orts), electricity y transmission n in thhe Americas (8 8,750 km of lin nes), and energy y distribution in n A Australasia/Eurrope (804,000 electricity/ e gas connections). c T Transport and Energy E (2010 FFO: F $175 miillion): Includees eenergy transmisssion in North America (15,5 500 km of natu ural ggas pipelines), 5,100 km of raailroad tracks in n Australia (sole pprovider in partts of Southwesttern Australia), and ports main nly inn Europe (20 ports p handling ~85 million ton nnes annually)). T Timber (2010 FFO: F $11 milliion): Includes 1.3 million acrres oof freehold timb berlands in No orth America.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
Provid des exposure to t global infra astructure assets through an MLP sttructure.** BIP P owns long liffe assets with high barrriers to entry. Regulated R and contraactual cash flow w represents ~8 80% of the totaal. Tradees at a ~9% trailing FFO yieeld (5% run-rrate distrib bution yield), based on 2010 0 FFO pro-form ma for thee Prime mergerr. BIP increaseed the quarterly y distrib bution by 13% to $0.31 per un nit in February y. Targeets 3-7% long-tterm growth in distributions due to o inflationary prrice increases and a a timber prrice recoveery. An $0.8 billlion project baacklog at existin ng assets,, as well as new w projects, offerr growth potenttial. Non-rrecourse debt. 99%+ of BIP’ss $4.6 billion of consollidated debt at yearend y 2010 is at project-level. Will 2010 2 merger with w Prime Inffrastructure createe value? BIP claims it will “eenhance” accesss to capiital markets and d “facilitate” fu uture growth.
MAJOR HOLDERS*
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
1 BIP was established in 200 8 by Brookfield Assset Management. F Financials are d after non-controlling interest. based on IIFRS. Proportionatte figures are stated 2 Proforma a for the merger witth Prime Infrastructture (completed in Dec. 2010). 3 Funds fro om operations (FFO O) is defined as ne et income plus DD& &A, deferred taxes, and d certain other itemss. 2009 figure exclu udes a gain on sale e. 4 AFFO=A Adjusted FFO as rep ported by the comp pany (FFO minus m maintenance capital exp penditures). 2009 fiigure excludes a ga ain on sale. 5 Defined a as partnership capiital less certain adjustments. 6 Based on n adjusted FFO divvided by average in nvested partnership p capital.
Acquiisition-led growth may not create c value as BIP op perates in a verry competitive market for infrasttructure assets. Expansion at existing facilitties (e.g. Australia A railroaads) mitigates this to an exten nt. “Conttracted” cash flow is not alw ways stable. With W ~50% of invested paartnership capittal in Australiaa (most of it in coal ex xport infrastruccture), unithold ders appearr exposed to a slowdown in demand d from China. This is magniified by high leeverage. Regullated cash flow ws provide a ceiling c on returns and may m not adequattely compensatte for risk. Valuee leakage from m services agreeement with Brook kfield Asset Ma anagement, wh hich gets a 1.25 5% base feee (tied to BIP market value) and a escalating incentiive participatio on (tied to per unit u distribution ns).
General Partner <1% | Brookfield Assset Managemeent 30% | Connor,, Clark & Lunnn 3% | TD 3% | RBC 2% | Pabbrai 1% *
Estimate d holdings after isssue of 51 million new units in Deceember 2010.
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
*
FFO=nett income plus DD& &A, deferred taxess, and certain otheer items. Stated on a proportionate baasis and pro-formaa for Prime mergerr in 2010. ** The masster limited partnerrship (MLP) struccture combines the tax benefits of a limiteed partnership withh the liquidity of ppublicly traded seccurities.
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE B BIP owns long life assets with h high barriers to entry that provide p essentiaal infrastructurre-related serviices. The 5% ruun-rate ddistribution yieeld appears attractive given th he non-recoursee nature of the debt and oppoortunities for orrganic growth at existing pprojects. However, the risk-reeward is diminiished by expossure to cyclicall demand for coommodities, exxecution risk tiied to an aacquisition-led model, as welll as value leakaage to the geneeral partner. Onn balance, we ddo not find thee valuation com mpelling. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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B BROOKFIELD IN NFRASTRUCTUR RE PARTNERS – OUR ESTIMA ATE OF THE EQU UITY FAIR VALLUE RANGE ($ in millions) Valuation metho odology
Conservattive
Base Case
Aggre essive
15x 2010 pro--forma FFO minu us maintenance capex
18xx 2010 pro-forma a FFO minus ma intenance capexx
20x 2010 0 pro-forma FFO minus maintena ance capex
$328 (104)
$328 (104)
$3 328 (104)
$224 15.0x $3.4 billio on $21 per u nit 5.8% 9.8% 1.0x 3.3x
$224 18.0x $4.0 billion $26 per unit 4.8% 8.1% 1.2x 4.0x
$2 224 20 0.0x $4.5 billion $28 p per unit 4.4% 7.3% 1..3x 4..4x
1
2010 pro-forma funds from operrations (FFO) 2 Maintenance ca apex
Estimated 2010 0 FFO minus maintenance capex Fair value multip ple Estimated fair value per unit of o Brookfield Inffrastructure 4
Implied annualiz zed cash distribu ution yield Implied 2010 FF FO yield 5 Implied fair valu ue to partnership capital 5 Implied fair valu ue to estimated ta angible partnersh hip capital
3
1
Proforma for the merger m with Prime Infrastructure, which was completed in n December 2010. Funds from operattions (FFO) is defin ned as net income plus DD&A, d deferred taxes, and certain other items s. It is stated after FFO F attributable to non-controlling intterests. 2 orted adjusted FFO O (AFFO), which is defined d as FFO minus maintenance ccapital expenditures per Brookfield. As implied by repo 3 4 Based on 157 million diluted units ou utstanding. Based on annualizing the latest quartterly cash distributio on of $0.31 per unit. 5 Based on Decemb ber 31, 2010, balan nce sheet. Tangible e partnership capita al is stated as partn nership capital less estimated proportiionate attribution off intangibles. S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
B BROOKFIELD IN NFRASTRUCTUR RE PARTNERS – OPERATING PROFILE
S Source: Company presentation p dated February 2011.
B BROOKFIELD IN NFRASTRUCTUR RE PARTNERS – CASH FLOW PROFILE
S Source: Company presentation p dated February 2011.
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Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
B BROOKFIELD IN NFRASTRUCTUR RE PARTNERS – SELECTED FIN NANCIAL INFO ORMATION (prroportionate shhare)
S Source: Company presentation p dated February 2011.
B BROOKFIELD IN NFRASTRUCTUR RE PARTNERS – SELECTED BA ALANCE SHEET DATA (proporrtionate share))
S Source: Company presentation p dated February 2011.
B BROOKFIELD IN NFRASTRUCTUR RE PARTNERS – PRO FORMA A CORPORATE LLIQUIDITY (Deccember 31, 20010)
S Source: Company presentation p dated February 2011.
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G Gastar Explloration (GSST) — BP Capital Ca Trading Data Price: $4.52 (as ( of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $2.85 - $5.77 Market value:: $282 million Enterprise value: $299 million n Shares out: 62.4 6 million Ownership O Data a
www.gastar.com
Houston,, TX, 713-739-1800
Energy: Oil & Gas G Operations
Consensus EP PS Estimates
Valuatio on
This quarterr Next quarter FYE 12/31/1 10
Lattest n/a n/a n/a
Month Ago n/a n/a n/a
# of Ests n/a n/a n/a
P//E FYE 12/31/09 P//E FYE 12/31/10 P//E FYE 12/31/11 P//E FYE 12/30/12 EV V/ LTM revenue
4x n/a n/a n/a 6.8x
FYE 12/31/1 11
n/a
n/a
n/a
EV V/ LTM EBIT
n/m
Insider ownerrship: 2%
FYE 12/30/1 12
n/a
n/a
n/a
P / tangible book
1.8x
Insider buys (last ( six months): 1
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months)): 5 Institutional ownership: 47%
EPS Surpris se n/a
Actu al n/a a
Greenblatt C Criteria
Esti mate n n/a
LT TM EBIT yield LT TM pre-tax ROC
-4% -9%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
12/31/03 2 0 (5) (5) (0.24) 21 (2) 5 (7) 1 1 0 39 2 5 7 15 0 24 -15%
12/31/04 6 0 (10) (13) (0.57) 22 (1) 34 (35) 16 18 0 84 0 2 58 62 0 22 -21%
Fiscal Years Y Ended 12/31/05 12 2/31/06 12/31//07 27 27 35 0 0 0 (12) (71) (5 58) (26) (85) (3 31) (0.99) (2.50) (0.7 75) 41 26 34 3 (1) 7 84 53 65 (80) (54) (5 58) 61 41 86 70 55 93 0 0 0 240 229 2 262 0 0 0 14 32 29 91 94 1 133 119 131 1 167 0 0 0 121 98 95 -11% -47% -42 2%
12/31/08 63 0 (1) (5) (0.13) 41 40 131 (91) 16 25 0 288 152 182 0 187 0 102 -1%
12/31/09 33 0 (93) 49 1.06 46 13 49 (36) 96 122 0 296 17 113 0 131 0 165 -57%
L LTME 9//30/10 44 0 (13) 3 0.07 47 9 52 (43) 7 22 0 236 0 39 24 79 0 157 -9%
FQE E 9/30/09 9 4 0 (22)) 109 9 2.21 1 49 9 (3)) 8 (11)) 80 0 87 7 0 266 6 20 0 106 6 0 114 4 0 152 2 n/m m
FQE 9/30/10 14 0 (17) (16) (0.33) 49 3 19 (16) 7 22 0 236 0 39 24 79 0 157 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Feb 02
Feb 03
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Feb 04 0
Feb 05
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Feb 07
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February 28, 2011 – Page 90 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
G Gastar owns an nd produces nattural gas reserv ves in three U.S. aareas: Bossier (East ( Texas), Marcellus M (Wesst Virginia and d P Pennsylvania), and the Powdeer River (Wyom ming/Montanaa).
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
U.S. unconventional u l natural gas producer p with 49 billion n cubic feet equ uivalent (Bcfe) of o proved reserrves at yearrend 2009 (95+ +% of which arre natural gas).* ~90% of reserves aree located at thee Bossier sandss in East Texas. T ~60% off reserves, whicch have a life of o ~7 yeaars based on traailing productio on, are producin ng. $70 million m JV deall with Korean investment fiirm Atinum validates Marcellus M resource potentiall. The deeal implies a vaalue of $4,100//acre for 17,10 00 acres to t be assigned to Atinum (50% of Gastar’s original acreage). Affter Gastar’s pu urchase of ~62,0 000 m Megaenergy/S Saga Petroleum m in Marceellus acres from Decem mber 2010, it ow wns ~80,000 accres at Marcellu us. Adjussted enterprisee value assum mes a value perr Marceellus acre of less l than $2,00 00, after reduciing EV by y the estimated $134 million after-tax a PV-10 0 of proved reserves (m mostly at Bossier/Powder Riv ver) based on NYMEX-strip pricing as of yearend ‘09 9.** Recen nt EV to “net resource r poten ntial” is less th han $1 perr oil-equivalen nt barrel based d on 400+ milllion boe (2 2.4+ trillion cfee) of resources per Gastar. Low average a cash costs c of $3-4 per thousand cfe cf since 2005 2 (1Q-3Q10: $3.90). Gastar estimates breakeeven levels at Bossier B and Maarcellus of $3.5 50 and $3 3.90 per thousaand cubic feet equivalent. e ~$25 million m of pro--forma net cassh at 9/30/10, adjusted for net deriv vatives, ~$52 million m of net proceeeds from 13.8 million m new sh hares in Decem mber ($4.00 0/share), a $21 million litigatiion settlement, as well as initial cash in n/outflow from m Marcellus deaals.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Proveed reserves jusstify only half of recent EV,, resulting in explora ation and deveelopment risk.. While the Atinum deeal indicates Gastar’s G resourcces have significant s valu ue above recentt EV, the sale of o 62,000 0 Marcellus acrres (~80% of total) to Gastar by Megaeenergy and Sag ga implies only y ~$410 per acrre. Futurre dilution cann not be ruled out given high capex needs despite $40 $ million futture capex fund ding by Atiinum. 2011 cap pital budget is $54-73 $ million n. Long--time sharehollder Palo Alto o Investors solld entiree stake at ~$3 in i 2010. Palo Alto A successfullly pushed d Gastar to split the CEO and d chairman rolees. Naturral gas price hedges limit neear-term upsid de.
1
FYE Dece cember 31 2006 Oil and ga gas reserves (period--end) (Bcfe): Proved reeserves 31.3 % naturral gas 99% % prod ucing 36% PV-10 prooved reserves ($mnn)2 40 Δ proved reserves -5% Δ proved producing 61% Δ product ction 23% Δ revenu e -2 Productioon (Bcfe) 4.7 Revenue ($mn)3 27 Selected items as % of revennue: Lease opperating expenses4 32% SG&A 51% EBIT5 -44% Net incom me6 -317% Net cash from operations -5% DD&A 61% Capex7 241% Net cash from operations ($m mn) -1 Realized avg gas price ($/Mccf) 5.60 Selected expenses ($ per Mccfe): Lease opperating4 1.82 G&A 2.87 DD&A 3.46 Tangible equity/assets 43% ∆ shares out (avg) 31%
20007
2008
20099
YTD 9/30/10
54.9 % 100% 40% % 1332 75% % 91% % 40% % 29% % 6.6 335
63.8 100% 50% 110 16% 47% 29% 83% 8.5 63
48.99 99% % 59% % 466 -23% % -10% % 9% % -48% % 9.33 333
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a -26% 44% 5.3 36
25% % 49% % -36% % -88% % 22% % 62% % 202% % 7 5.118
17% 23% 21% -8% 63% 39% 218% 40 6.63
26% % 48% % -24% % 149% % 41% % 50% % 168% % 133 4.366
25% 32% 26% -26% 22% 17% 121% 8 4.13
1.331 2.555 3.224 36% % 19% %
1.28 1.68 2.87 35% 2%
0.922 1.688 1.777 56% % 11% %
1.71 2.20 1.15 67% 9%
Bcf(e) = b billions of cubic fee et (equivalents); Mccf(e) = thousands o of cf(e). Present vvalue, discounted a at 10% per annum, of estimated future e net revenue before inco ome tax of estimate ed proved reservess (no future taxes p payable have been inclu ded based on tax-lloss carryforwards)). 2006-08 is based d on “old” es held constant”). 2 2009 is based on “new” SEC SEC meth odology (“flat price ogy (“average price es held constant”). 2 2009 PV-10 is $113 3 million methodolo under the ““old” method and $ $134 million if "NYM MEX strip" prices are used. 3 After unre ealized natural gass hedge gain/loss. 4 Includes production taxes a and transportation a and treating costs. 5 Excludess natural gas/oil pro operties’ impairmen nt, accretion of asset retirement obligation, litigation expense and mineral resource properties expe ense. 6 2009 nett income includes p proceeds from the ssale of Australian a assets. 7 Includes drilling advances. 2
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Poorter 2% | Otheer insiders 1% | Chesapeake 113% BlackRoock 6% | Tocquueville 6% | Riiver Road 4% | Rima 3%
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
*
Based onn “new” SEC methhod (69 Bcfe at “N NYMEX strip pricees”). “Unconveentional” because pprior to advances iin drilling, fracturiing and completioon technologies, prroduction from succh reserves was unneconomic. ** EV is allso adjusted for alll transactions in 4Q Q10, including thee issue of new shares, a liitigation settlemennt, and the Marcelllus sale and purchase deals.
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE G Gastar’s strateg gy is to exploree unconvention nal natural gas resources in thhe U.S., includiing sands, shalle and coalbed methane. A joint venture deal with Korrean investmen nt firm Atinum appears to val idate this strateegy and indicaate a value of G Gastar’s aacreage far abo ove recent enterrprise value. Given G a debt-freee balance sheeet and operatioonal control by Gastar, much of that ppotential value may ultimately y accrue to exiisting sharehold ders, among w which is naturall gas giant Cheesapeake Energgy (CHK). R Reducing the riisk-reward, and d tempering ou ur enthusiasm, is the fact that proved reserves likely justify fy only half of rrecent EV. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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G GASTAR EXPLO ORATION – OUR R ESTIMATE OFF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RAANGE ($ in millions) Valuation metho odology
Co onservative Low w valuation of provved reserves
Base Case 1P, plus low vvalue of resource es
Agg gressive 1P, p plus higher value o of resources
8 million boe $ 10 per boe $ $85 million $ 114 million 74% 83 3 million boe $ $0 per boe $0 $ $85 million $4,734
8 million bo oe $12 per bo oe $102 millio on $114 millio on 89% 83 million boe $0.50 per boe $42 million n $143 millio on $8,008
8 miillion boe $14 4 per boe $119 million $114 million 1 104% 83 m million boe $1.00 0 per boe $83 3 million $20 02 million $1 11,283
1 million boe $ 10 per boe $8 million $ $10 million 86% 317 7 million boe $0 0.00 per boe $0 million $8 million $104 $ $10 million 19,600 $510 $1 103 million $ $25 million $1 130 million $2.0 00 per share 0.6x 7% 77% $9 $0.26 $877
1 million bo oe $12 per bo oe $10 million n $10 million n 103% 317 million b boe $0.50 per boe $158 millio on $168 millio on $2,105 $15 million 19,600 $765 $327 millio on $25 million n $350 millio on $5.50 per sh hare 1.7x 2% 245% $28 $0.82 $2,780
1 miillion boe $14 4 per boe $12 2 million $10 0 million 1 121% 317 m million boe $1.00 0 per boe $317 million $32 28 million $ $4,105 $20 0 million 19,600 $ $1,020 $550 0 million $25 5 million $580 0 million $9.00 per share 2.8x 1% 4 412% $48 $ $1.38 $ $4,684
1
Value of East Texas T assets (B Bossier): 2 Proved reserves s as of 12/31/09 Fair value “multtiple” Fair value of pro oved reserves (A A) 3 12/31/09 PV-1 10, East Texas proved p reserves (NYMEX ( strip pricing) implied fair value v as % of PV V-10 value 4 “Net resource potential” Fair value “multtiple” Fair value of res sources (B) Estimated enterrprise value of Ea ast Texas assets s (A) + (B) = (C) implied ente erprise value perr acre, net to Gas star (17.9K acres s) 5 Value of Appallachia assets (M Marcellus Shale)): 6 Proved reserves s as of 12/31/09 Fair value “multtiple” Fair value of pro oved reserves (D D) 7 12/31/09 PV-1 10, Appalachia proved p reserves (NYMEX ( strip priicing) implied fair value v as % of PV V-10 value 8 “Net resource potential” Fair value “multtiple” Fair value of res sources (E) Estimated enterrprise value of Ap ppalachia assets s (D) + (E) = (F) 9, 9 10 implied ente erprise value perr acre, net to Gas star (80K acres) 11 Estimated ente erprise value of Powder River Basin B assets (G G) Gastar net acres in Powder Riiver Basin implied ente erprise value perr acre, net to Gas star Estimated total enterprise value (C) + (F) + (G G) 12 Plus: Estimated d net cash (9/30/1 10 net cash plus adjustments) Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Gastar
13
14
Implied price-to-tangible book va alue multiple 15 5 Implied trailing net n cash from op perations to impliied equity value 16 Implied EV as % of PV-10 (12/3 31/09 1P, NYMEX X strip, after taxe es) Implied EV per boe of proved re eserves Implied EV per boe of "net resou urce potential" Implied EV per net acre 1
100% operated; 50 0-67% working inte erest. Assets are lo ocated at the Deep Bossier Sands, Ea agleford, Glen Rose e and Knowles Lim mestone. During the e first nine 2 m months of 2010, Ga astar's average net production from Ea ast Texas was ~17 7 MMcfe/day. Based on NYME EX strip pricing. Rep ported natural gas vvolume (9 90+% of total Gastar proved reserves s) has been convertted to barrels of oil equivalent (boe) o on the basis of one barrel of oil to six tthousand cubic fee et of natural 3 g gas (based on an energy equivalence applicable at the burner b tip). The T NYMEX strip p pricing is based on tthe forward closing g prices on the New w York M Mercantile Exchang ge for crude oil and natural gas as of December D 31, 2009 9. For gas volume, the price was base ed on a Henry Hub b natural gas price, which in ncreased from $5.7 79 per MMBtu to $8 8.51 per MMBtu over the life of the pro operties and was a adjusted by lease in n accordance with ssales contracts, qu uality for e energy content, tran nsportation fees, an nd regional price differentials. PV-10 represents r the pressent value, discoun nted at 10% per annum, of estimated future net re evenue before inco ome tax of estimate ed proved reserves. Gastar has ~$50 million of tax carryyforwards for federa al income tax purpo oses. Based on the ese ccarryforwards and current c and future property p tax basis, no n future taxes pay yable have been in cluded in the deterrmination of discounted future net cassh flows. 4 Based on the com mpany's presentation from February 20 011 (net resource potential p of ~0.5 tril lion cubic feet equiivalents was conve erted to barrels of o oil equivalent). 5 100% operated; 95 5-100% working intterest. Assets are located in the Marc cellus fairway in norrthern West Virgini a and southwesterrn Pennsylvania. D During the first 6 7 8 n nine months of 2010 0, Gastar's average e net production fro om Appalachia was s ~0.4 MMcfe/day. See footnotte 2. See footnote 3. Ba ased on the 9 ccompany's presenta ation from February y 2011 (net resourc ce potential of ~1.9 trillion cubic feet e equivalents was con of oil equivalent). After nverted to barrels o a adjustments for acre eage sold to Atinum m JV in Septemberr 2010 as well as th he acquisition of accreage in Decembe er 2010. In Septemb ber 2010, Gastar entered into a p purchase and sale agreement a with Atinum Partners, a Ko orean investment fiirm. Pursuant to the e agreement, at the e closing of transacctions in Novemberr 2010, G Gastar assigned to Atinum an initial 21 1.4% interest in all of its existing Marc cellus Shale assetss in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, w which consists of ~37,600 gross (3 34,200 net) acres and a a 50% working g interest in 16 prod ducing shallow conv ventional wells and d one non-producin ng vertical Marcellus Shale well, in a transaction vvalued at $70 million. Atinum paid Gas star $30 million in cash c at the closing and will pay an add ditional $40 million over time to coverr a portion of the Co ompany’s d drilling costs (“drillin ng carry”). Upon completion of the funding of the drilling carry, Gastar will m make additional asssignments to Atinum m, as necessary, so Atinum will o own a 50% interest in the 34,200 net acres a of Marcellus Shale S rights owned by Gastar. In Deccember 2010, Gasstar completed a Ma arcellus property accquisition for $ $29 million. The acq quisition consists of ~62,000 net acres s of leasehold in the Marcellus Shale concentrated in Prreston, Tucker and Pendleton Countie es, West 10 V Virginia. After alloca ating value to existing wells, a gatherin ng system and worrk program, Gastarr paid ~$410 per accre. The Se eptember 2010 Atin num trransaction (see foo otnote 9) implies a ~$4,100 ~ per acre value v for Marcellus acreage. The Dece ember 2010 Gastar acquisition of Marcellus acreage (~8 80% of 11 a acreage owned) imp plies a ~$410 per acre value (see foo otnote 9). The wide e range of values pe er acre is reflected in our various valu uation cases. Our cconservative value is based on the $10 0 million PV-10 value of proved reserv ves, based on NYM MEX strip pricing ass of yearend 2009.. Gastar owns a 40 0% average w working interest in ~43,400 ~ gross (19,6 600 net) acres in th he Powder River Ba asin of Wyoming. P Primary areas of acctivity are the Squa aw Creek, Ring of F Fire and a adjacent fields (coalbed methane prop perties). The majority of the remaining g working interest iss owned by the ope erator, Pinnacle Ga as Resources, Inc. During the 12 fiirst nine months of 2010, Gastar's ave erage net productio on from the Powderr River Basin was ~ ~2 MMcfe/day. Net cash as off September 30, 20 010 (including n net derivatives) adju usted to include ~$52 million of net prroceeds from the issue of new shares , the Marcellus tran nsactions, and a litiigation settlement ((all during 13 4 4Q10). On October 1, 2010, Gastar's borrowing b base was increased to $47 7.5 million, increasin ng availability for b orrowing to $23.5 m million. Bassed on 64 14 m million shares outsta anding (includes 13 3.8 million new sha ares issued in Dece ember 2010 at a pu ublic offering price o of $4.00 per share)). Based on n the pro15 Based on fo orma shareholders' equity of $210 milllion, as reported in n Gastar's February y 2011 presentation n (includes adjustm ments for 4Q10 tran nsactions). ~ ~$9 million of net ca ash from operations s for the year ende ed September 30, 2010. 2 Gastar has a $54-73 million tota al capital budget for 2011. This include es $38-57 m million for drilling, de ependent on anticipated oil drilling res sults at Glen Rose,, Eagle Ford/Wood dbine. ~57% of drilliing capex in East T Texas and Appalacchia is planned 16 to o focus on oil/liquid ds. 4Q10 capex is estimated e at ~$19 million. m Bas sed on a PV-10 val ue of $134 million (Henry Hub natura al gas price increased from $5.79 p per MMBtu to $8.51 per MMBtu over the life of the properties). ~85% of the PV-10 value is at East Texas, ~8% a at the Powder River Basin, and ~7% a at Appalachia. S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
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N NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY – PRICE P LEVEL REEQUIRED FOR 10% 1 IRR ($ peer mmbtu) (selected geograpphic areas)
G GASTAR EXPLO ORATION – PRO O FORMA BALA ANCE SHEET (September 30, 2010)
G GASTAR EXPLO ORATION – 20111 DRILLING PROGRAM P
S Source: Company presentation p dated February 2011.
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G GM (GM) — Appaloosa sa , Blue ue Ridge , Glenview w , Pennnant , Pershing Detroit, MI, 313-5556-5000
Consumer Cyc clical: Auto & Trruck Manufacturers Trading T Data
www.gm.com
Con nsensus EPS Es stimates
Price: $36.51 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $33.07 - $39.48 Market value:: $54.8 billion Enterprise value: $36.9 billion n Shares out: 1,500.0 million
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/10
Latest $0.46 0.98 2.86
Month Ago $0.48 0.98 2.90
Valuation # of Ests 17 15 18
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LT TM revenue
n/m 13x 9x 7x 0.3x
FYE 12/31/11
4.20
4.22
19
EV/ LT TM EBIT
50x
Insider ownerrship: 11%
FYE 12/30/12
5.22
5.25
15
P / tan ngible book
n/m
Insider buys (last ( six months): 22
LT growth
10.9%
6.7%
2
Insider sales (last six months)): 11 Institutional ownership: 30%
EPS Surprise 11/10/10
Ow wnership Data
Actual n/a
Estimate e n/a
Greenblatt Critteria LTM E EBIT yield LTM p pre-tax ROC
2% 9%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
1/0/00
1/0/0 00
Fisccal Years Ended 12/31/07 12/31/08 12 2/31/09 179,984 148,979 1 104,589 14,411 (278) (7,606) (4,309) (21,187) 1 105,943 (38,542) (30,943) 1 104,690 (76.13) (53.44) 253.49 566 579 413 7,731 (12,065) (17,630) 7,542 7,530 5,379 189 (19,595) (2 23,009) 14,194 22,813 44,267 59,247 265 45,219 91,039 1 136,295 16,920 10,221 75,608 52,435 29,018 5,562 176,599 1 108,048 0 6,998 (85,560) 21,249 -369% >100%
LTME 9/30 0/10 131,0 037 12,3 392 7 733 6 638 (3.11) 6 685 6,7 701 4,0 093 2,6 608 33,4 476 61,5 584 43,0 010 137,2 238 5,6 621 52,5 569 2,9 945 107,4 493 6,9 998 22,7 747 9%
FQE 9/30/09 26,784 1,411 0 127,090 307.72 413 (535) 1,264 (1,799) 25,229 68,344 46,018 144,344 12,815 58,780 2,659 124,034 1,741 18,569 n/m
FQE 9/30/10 34,060 4,592 1,852 1,959 1.20 1,500 2,624 1,261 1,363 33,476 61,584 43,010 137,238 5,621 52,569 2,945 107,493 6,998 22,747 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Feb 11
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA — AUTO OMOTIVE
G General Motorss manufacturess cars, trucks an nd other vehiclles. G GM emerged frrom Chapter 11 reorganizatio on in July 2009 9 aand completed an IPO at $33 per share in November N 2010 0.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
One of o the world’s largest autom makers, with 11 1% globall market share in 2010, based d on vehicles so old. GM haas 19% share in the U.S. marrket (~25% of its i globall vehicle sales), including 14% % share in carss (~60% % of its U.S. salles) and 23% share s in trucks. Implieed enterprise value of the automotive busineess is only ~50 0% of depressed 2010 reven nue. Assum ming a return to o 2007 revenue and a 7.5% EB BIT margin n, automotive trades t at an imp plied EBIT of ~5x. ~ Sharees trade at a 10 0% trailing FC CF yield based d on $6.4 billion of auttomotive free caash flow in 201 10, exclud ding a $4.0 billiion voluntary pension p paymen nt. Autom motive has ~$2 22 billion of neet cash and a lower cost base afterr bankruptcy restructuring.. GM haas lowered ann nual payroll exp penses by 17% since 2008. 2 EBIT maargin could imp prove materially y from th he ~4% achiev ved in 2010 if worldwide w vehiccle deman nd can sustainab bly recover to pre-crisis p levelss. Acquiired AmeriCreedit to form GM G Financial in n 2010. The $3.5 billio on purchase pro ovides GM with ha presen nce in the poten ntially attractivee sub-prime vehiclee financing maarket after the 2008-09 bust. GM Financial F appea ars in good shape with tangiible equity y representing 20+% of totall assets as of yearen nd 2010. Annuaalized net charg ge-offs were 5.5 5% of receeivables in 4Q1 10, down from ~9% a year-ago.
1
FYE Dece cember 31 Revenue ($bn) ∆ revennue Selected items as % of revennue: Gross proofit SG&A EBIT GM worlddwide units producedd (mn) % of worlldwide units produceed by geography: North Am merica - cars North Am merica - trucks Total N orth America Europe South Am merica Internatioonal – other (consoliddated entities) Internatioonal – other (joint ve ntures) Total Innternational - other GM worlddwide vehicle sales ((mn)1 % of worlldwide vehicle saless by geography: U.S. Canada, Mexico Europe South Am merica Internatioonal - other
Is a 5+% EBIT marrgin in the autto business sustaiinable? While GM is benefitiing from an upswin ng in demand combined c with h a lower operatting cost base, maintaining mid-single m digit margin ns over time will w likely provee challenging in na notorio ously cyclical and competitiv ve car industry. ~80% % of 2010 EBIT T derives from m mature Nortth American market. While W Europe may have turnaro ound potential (2010 EBIT lo oss of $1.8 billion n) and emerging markets prov vide increasing g profitss, GM’s fortunees remain largely tied to the U.S. U Balan nce sheet rema ains burdened with significa ant post-rretirement liab bilities, totaling $32 billion at a yearen nd 2010. GM has h negative tan ngible book. Dilutiion. While GM M reports sharess outstanding of o 1.5 billlion, the diluteed figure is closer to 1.9 billio on.
2009 105 -30%
22010 135 229%
0% 14% -14% 8.1
-7% 13% -20% 6.5
12% 8% 4% 8.7
19% 23% 42% 19% n/a n/a n/a 39% 8.4
11% 18% 29% 17% 12% 12% 30% 41% 7.5
11% 221% 332% 14% 11% 12% 331% 443% 8.4
36% 7% 24%
28% 5% 22% 12% 45%
226% 5% 220% 12% 449%
33%
Includes HUMMER, Saturn and Pontiac vehiccle sales data. GM S Saab vehicle a is included through February 2010. sales data
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA — GM FFINANCIAL1
1
As of Deccember 31 Total asssets ($bn) Selected items as % of total aassets: Finance rreceivables (include s receivables at speecial purpose entitiess) Tangible shareholders' equityy
2010 10.9 75% 21%
The GM F Financial segment has been added as result of the Octo ober 2010 acquisition n of AmeriCredit, an n independent auto omobile finance com mpany. GM acquired A AmeriCredit for $3.5 5 billion in cash.
COMPARRABLE PUBLIC COMPANY AN NALYSIS
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
2008 149 -17%
TM F NSANY Y GM
MV ($mn) 160,800 56,350 48,030 54,770
EV (($mn) 26 62,950 15 55,050 8 84,620 3 36,860
EV / Rev. 1.1x 1.2x .7x .3x
P/ Tang. Book 1.3x n/m 1.5x n/m
This FY P/E 46x 8x 20x 13x
Next FY P/E 28x 8x 19x 9x
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders <1% | U.S. goov’t 33% | Mottors Liquidationn Co. 23% UAW R Retiree Trust 133% | Canadian gov’t 9% | Capp Re 3%
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE T The post-bankrruptcy GM is benefiting b from m a significantly y improved opeerating cost baase. Combined with a cyclical auto inndustry upswin ng, this has led to a respectable automotive EBIT E margin off ~5% in 2010. Given that revvenue remains ddepressed rrelative to a mo ore normalized d environment, profitability im mprovements m may be sustaineed for some tim me. Another poositive is thhe $20+ billion n of net cash in n the automotiv ve business. Neegatives includde the notoriouusly difficult naature of the autto industry, aas well as the sttill sizable pen nsion liabilities and dilutive seecurities. On bbalance, valuatiion is attractivee, but not comppelling. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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G GENERAL MOTO ORS – OUR ESTTIMATE OF THEE EQUITY FAIR R VALUE RANG E ($ in billions)
Valuation metho odology
Automotive bu usiness: 1 Normalized reve enue 2 Normalized EBIT margin Estimated norm malized EBIT Fair value multip ple Estimated enterrprise value of Au utomotive 3 Plus: Automotiv ve net cash Estimated equity value of Automotive Financial Serviices business (G GM Financial): Tangible shareh holders' equity as s of December 31, 2010 Fair value multip ple Estimated equity value of GM Financial Other assets/liabilities: Plus: Estimated d value of equity investees i Less: Post-emp ployment benefit provisions Less: Preferred stock Less: Non-contrrolling interests Estimated fair value of the equ uity of General Motors
4
Implied valuatio on ratios of Autom motive: 2010 FCF yield based on autom motive FCF excl. pension p payment EV-to-2010 EBIIT EV-to-2010 reve enue EV-to-2008 reve enue Implied valuatio on ratios of GM Financial: F Implied P/E ass suming a 15% RO OE
Conservative
B ase Case
Aggre essive
Sum-of-the-parts S s valluation: Automottive valued at 10x norm malized EBIT (ba ased on a 4% EBIT margi n on $135 billion of reven nue); GM M Financial valued d at 1.0x tangible boo ok
Sum m-of-the-parts valuatio on: Automotive vallued at 10x normalizzed EBIT (based on a 5% EBIT margin on n $150 bil lion of revenue); GM Fina ancial valued at 1.5x ttangible book
Sum-of-tthe-parts valuation: A Automotive valued at 10x normalized E EBIT (based on a 6% EBIT margin on $160 billion o of revenue); GM Financia al valued at 2.0x tangible book
$135.0 4.0% $5.4 10.0x $54.0 22.0 $76.0
$150.0 5.0% $7.5 10.0x $75.0 22.0 $97.0
$16 60.0 6.0 0% $9 9.6 10..0x $96 6.0 22 2.0 $118.0
$2.3 1.0x $2.3
$2.3 1.5x $3.5
$2 2.3 2.0 0x $4 4.6
$8.5 (31.8) (11.9) (1.0) $42 billion $22 per share
$8.5 (31.8) (11.9) (1.0) $6 64 billion $34 4 per share
$8 8.5 (31.8) (11.9) (1.0) $86 b billion $46 perr share
8%
7%
5% %
10.4x 0.40x 0.36x
14.4x 0.55x 0.50x
18..5x 0.7 71x 0.6 64x
4.3x
6.5x
8.6 6x
1
Automotive revenu ue was ~$135 billio on in 2010. 2 Reported automottive EBIT margin wa as ~4% in 2010, ba ased on EBIT exclu uding income from equity investees. 3 Based on yearend d 2010 automotive net n cash, excluding g restricted cash an nd restricted marke etable securities. 4 Based on an estim mated 1.9 billion dilu uted shares outstan nding. S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
G GENERAL MOTO ORS – POST-BA ANKRUPTCY REDUCTION R IN LONG-TERM L IABILITIES
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 11, 2011.
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G GENERAL MOTO ORS – U.S. MA ARKET SHARE *
*
GM U.S. market sh hare based on Buic ck, Cadillac, Chevro olet & GMC only S Source: Company presentation p dated January 11, 2011.
INDUSTRY – U..S. TOTAL AUTO O SALES PEAK--TROUGH SWINGS
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 11, 2011.
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H Hain Celesti tial (HAIN) — Icahn Mellville, NY, 631-730-2200
Consumer Non n-Cyclical: Food d Processing, Member M of S&P SmallCap S 600 Trading Data
www.hain-celestial.com
Co onsensus EPS E Estimates
Price: $30.88 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $15.53 - $31.25 Market value:: $1.3 billion Enterprise value: $1.5 billion Shares out: 43.0 4 million
This quarter Next quarterr FYE 6/30/11
Latest $0.34 0.32 1.29
Month Ago $0.34 0.32 1.28
Valuation # of E Ests 11 10 11
P/E FY YE 6/30/10 P/E FY YE 6/30/11 P/E FY YE 6/29/12 P/E FY YE 6/29/13 EV/ LTM M revenue
FYE 6/29/12 2
1.48
1.44
11
EV/ LTM M EBIT
Insider ownerrship: 2%
FYE 6/29/13 3
1.58
1.61
4
P / tang gible book
Insider buys (last ( six months): 16
LT growth
12.0%
12.0%
3
Insider sales (last six months)): 4 Institutional ownership: 93%
EPS Surprise e 2/3/11
Ownership O Data
Actual $0.39
Estimate e $0.37
45x 24x 21x 20x 1.6x 19x 27.6x
Greenblatt Crite eria LTM EB BIT yield LTM prre-tax ROC
5% 29%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
6/30 0/04 544 5 160 1 46 27 0.74 0 35 31 10 21 28 198 1 389 3 684 6 7 68 104 1 187 1 0 497 4 23% 2
6/30/05 620 171 41 24 0.65 36 35 10 25 24 194 412 707 3 70 92 179 0 528 21%
Fiscal Years Ended 6/30/06 6/3 30/07 6/30/08 739 900 1,047 213 261 275 65 84 77 48 41 36 0.93 1.16 0.99 39 40 38 54 66 25 15 11 20 40 55 5 49 61 59 261 316 393 606 687 483 878 1,059 1,259 1 1 0 88 118 146 215 308 151 260 362 517 0 0 0 618 697 743 30% 34% 26%
6/30/09 1,123 246 (9) (25) (0.61) 40 22 13 9 41 349 606 1,124 0 137 258 422 0 701 -3%
6//30/10 917 251 71 29 0.69 41 71 11 60 17 314 715 1,198 0 139 225 432 0 766 26%
LTM ME 12/31/10 99 95 27 75 8 80 3 35 0.8 80 4 41 7 71 11 6 60 2 26 35 53 75 59 1,28 82 0 18 82 24 40 47 75 0 80 07 29 9%
FQE 12/31/09 242 70 22 11 0.27 41 19 2 17 27 347 609 1,121 0 128 235 389 0 732 n/m
FQE 12/31/10 292 85 30 16 0.37 43 23 2 20 26 353 759 1,282 0 182 240 475 0 807 n/m
Feb 09
Feb 10
Feb 11
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Feb 02
Feb 03
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Feb 04 0
Feb 05
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
H Hain Celestial produces p food and personal care c products.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
Niche food produceer focused on natural n and organ nic markets.* Hain H targets health-conscious custom mers with brand ds including Arrowhead A Millls (cereaals), Earth’s Beest (infant foods), Terra (chipss), Celesttial Seasoningss (teas), and 40+ other brandss. Valuee to a trade bu uyer is likely above recent EV. E Based on estimated SG&A S synergiees of $50+ million w estimate the total contributtion (~5% of revenue), we EBIT to a trade buyeer at ~$160 milllion. At 12x EVE to-con ntribution EBIT T, shares are worth w nearly $40 0. Icahn funds’ 16% stake s and boarrd involvemen nt may leead to a sale. Carl C Icahn’s so on Brett and anotheer Icahn nomin nee, became bo oard members after in nitial stake-buiilding by Icahn n funds in 2010 0. High ROIC R due to branded, b capiital-light modeel at scale. Only ~40% % of revenue is derived from produccts manufacturred at company y-owned facilitties.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Sharees appear fairlly valued on sttand-alone basis with an n implied EV-tto-EBIT of ~15 5x. While Europ pe has turrn-around poten ntial, it is only ~10% of reven nue. Hain’ss total EBIT margin m is at fivee-year highs. A salee may not be supported by chairman c and d CEO Simon (52), who w founded Haain in 1993. Haain, which h agreed not to enact a "poison n pill" as long as Icahn owns <20%, may m favor a con ntinuation of acquissition-led grow wth. Hain spent $400+ million n on M&A since FY06, with w questionab ble value creatiion. Will organic o industtry growth tra anslate into va alue creatiion? Powerful distributor/retaailer customerss and th he rise of privatte label produccts are challeng ges. Europ pean rival Wessanen may offfer better risk krewarrd to profit fro om organic ind dustry growth h. The Amsterdam-liste A ed company traades at an EV-torevenu ue multiple of 0.4x 0 versus Haain’s 1.5x. ~$245 5 million of adjj. net debt (~2 2.0x EBITDA)), incl. ~$30 ~ million off debt due to M&A M in 2011.
CCOMPARABLE PUBLIC P COMPA ANY ANALYSISS
KFT GIS HAIN
MV ($mn) 53,990 22,950 1,330
EV ($mn) 80,230 29,430 1,540
EV V/ Rev. 1.6 6x 2.0 0x 1.5 5x
P/ Tang. Book n/m n/m 27.7x
Th his FY P//E 14 4x 15 5x 24 4x
Next FY P/E 12x 13x 21x
1
FYE Junee 30 20006 2007 20088 ∆ revenuue 199% 22% 17% % ∆ employyees 399% 3% 40% % Revenue ($bn) 00.7 0.9 1.00 % of reveenue by product cateegory: Grocery 51 % 51% 50% % Snacks 11% 9% % 133% Tea 144% 10% 9% % Personal care 66% 10% 111 Other3 166% 17% 20% % Revenue growth by selected product category: Grocery 100% 23% 14% % Snacks 100% 0% 2% % Tea 00% -9% 0% % Personal care 61 % 100% 24% % % of reveenue by geography: U.S. 81 % 75% 78% % Internatioonal4 199% 25% 22% % Pre-tax m margin by geographyy: U.S. 88% 8% 7% % Internatioonal 99% 11% 6% % Total ppre-tax margin 88% 9% 7% % Selected items as % of revennue: Gross proofit 299% 29% 26% % EBIT 99% 9% 7% % EBIT ex sspecial items6 99% 9% 8% % Net incom me 55% 5% 4% % Net cash from ops 77% 7% 2% % D&A 22% 2% 2% % Capex 22% 1% 2% % Employeees (000s) 22.1 2.1 3.00 Return onn tang. equity 299% 42% 56% % Tang. equuity/assets 366% 27% 14% % ∆ shares out (avg) 33% 4% 2% %
2009 7% -32%2 1.1
20100 -18%2 2% % 0.99
1H11 16% n/a 0.5
48% 8% 8% 11% 25%
61% % 11% % 10% % 10% % 9%2
n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
3% -5% -6% 2%
3% % 4% % 5% % -22% %
n/a n/a n/a n/a
81% 19%
79% % 21% %
82% 18%
3% -24% -2%5
9% % -4% % 6% %
10% -3% 8%
22% -1% 4% -2% 2% 2% 1% 2.0 -33% 14% 1%
27% % 8% % 9% % 3% % 8% % 2% % 1% % 2.11 39% % 15% % 1% %
28% 9% 9% 5% 2% 2% 1% n/a 59% 17% 5%
Financialls are not compara able for the periods presented due to $ $400+ million of acquisit ions and the decon nsolidation of HPP in FY10 (see note 2). 2 n of the protein pro Reflects tthe deconsolidation oduct business HPP P as of June 30, 2009. IIn the year to June e 2009, U.S.-based HPP had revenue of $166 million and d a pre-tax loss of $ $22 million. Hain co ontinues to own 48 8% of HPP, accounted d for under the equiity method ($1.7 million of related inco ome in FY10). 3 Includes meat alternatives a and fresh prepared d food (and HPP through FY09). 4 Primarilyy Canada and Euro pean countries. 5 Includes impairment of goo dwill/intangibles of $53 million, mainlyy in Europe. 6 Excludess acquisition-related d costs, restructurin ng charges and impairments.
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Sim mon 4% | Otheer insiders 4% | Icahn 16% | D DFA 7%
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
*
Organic ffood, which requirres appropriate cerrtification, is grow wn without pesticides , artificial fertilizeers, antibiotics, groowth hormones or genetically modified oorganisms. “Naturral” is a wider term m with no legal deffinition, generally rreferring to food tthat does not contaain artificial ingreddients.
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE H Hain owns lead ding natural and d organic food d brands that sh hould enable it to benefit from m the ongoing shift to healthiier eating. T The company’ss strong brandss, as well as deccent scale, serv ve as competitiive barriers thaat result in highh ROIC. Unforrtunately, thhese positives appear already y reflected in reecent valuation n, with shares ttrading at an im mplied EV-to-E EBIT of ~15x. The fact thhat funds contrrolled by Carl Icahn own 16% % – and have board b representtation – may haave increased tthe probabilityy of a sale oof the company y. While we can n conjure up a take-out scenaario above receent market pricces, the risk-rew ward is unfavorable. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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H HAIN CELESTIA AL – OUR ESTIM MATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VA ALUE RANGE ($ in millions)
Valuation metho odology
Conservative an nd base case me etrics: 1 Normalized reve enue 2 Normalized EBIT margin Normalized EBIT 3 Fair value multip ple Estimated enterrprise value
Conservative
Base Case
Ag ggressive
12x estimated normalized EBIT T (based on $1.1 1 billion of revenu ue and an 8% EBIT T margin)
12x estim mated normalized d EBIT (based on n $1.1 billion of re evenue and a 12% % EBIT margin)
~12xx estimated EBIT contribution to a potential a acquirer
$1,100 8.0% $88 12.0x $1,056
$1,10 00 12.0% % $132 2 12.0xx $1,58 84
Aggressive case e metrics: 4 Estimated M&A A synergies Fair value multip ple Estimated value e of M&A synergiies Estimated value e of existing cash h flow (assumes "base case" valu uation) Estimated total enterprise value (M&A scenario) implied EV to contribution EBIIT (1H11 ann. EB BIT plus potential synergies)
$55 5.0x $275 1,584 $ $1,859 11.9x
5
Minus: Net debtt Minus: World Gourmet contingent consideration 5 Plus: Value of equity e affiliates Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Hain Celestial
6
Implied earnings yield based on n midpoint of FY1 11 non-GAAP EP PS guidance Implied trailing FCF F yield 8 Implied EV-to-re evenue based on n midpoint of FY11 revenue guida ance
7
(214) (30) 45 $858 million $19 per share e 7% 7% 1.0x
(214) (30)) 45 $1,386 m million $31 per s share 4% 4% 1.5xx
(214) (30) 45 $1,6 672 million $38 per share 3% 4% 1.7x
1
Our “normalized” revenue r estimate of o $1.1 billion appro oximates FY 2011 guidance, g adjusted for the revenue co ontribution from reccent M&A on a full-yyear basis. Average EBIT marrgin during FY06-10 was ~7.5%, exclu uding special items s (with a peak of 9% % in FY07 and a tro ough of 4% in FY09 9). F2Q11 EBIT ma argin, e excluding special ite ems, is 10% (this in ncludes a roughly break-even b contribu ution from non-U.S . operations, which h represent ~20% o of total revenue). O Our normalized E EBIT margin assum mption in the base case c is that U.S. op perations maintain recent r margins and d non-U.S. operatio ons are turned-arou und. Our normalize ed EBIT m margin assumption in the conservative e case approximate es the 5-year historrical average. 3 E multiple reflec cts the company's strong s brands and attractive prospects ts for future revenu e growth. The use of a 12x EBIT 4 Based on 5% of es stimated normalize ed revenue of $1.1 billion. 5 Based on balance sheet values at ye earend 2010 (net de ebt excludes ~$30 million of additiona al net debt as a ressult of acquisitions m made in Jan./Feb. 2011). 6 Based on 44.3 million diluted shares outstanding. 7 g is $1.24-1.31 for the year ended June 30, 2011. Non-GAAP financcials exclude transaction costs and accquisition integratio on expenses. Non-GAAP EPS guidance 8 Revenue guidance e is $1,060-1,080 million m for the year ended e June 30, 2011 (includes five m months of revenue ffrom acquisitions co ompleted in Jan./Feb. 2011). S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e 2
H HAIN CELESTIA AL – OVERVIEW W OF SELECTED BRANDS Brand Natural food (g grocery): Arrowhead Mills s Breadshop Casbah DeBoles Earth's Best Greek Gods Hain Pure Food ds Health Valley Hollywood Imagine Foods MaraNatha Nile Spice Spectrum SunSpire Walnut Acres Westbrae Naturral © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
Descrip ption Pioneerr in organic bakin ng, mixes, grainss, cereals and nu ut butters since 1960. Ready-tto-eat cereals with both kids' and d adult products. A comp plete line of vegettarian prepared m mixes and side d dishes. Pasta brand b known espe ecially for its Jerrusalem artichoke e flour products. First complete line of org ganic foods for in nfants. Authenttic Greek-style prroducts including g yogurts. Offers natural n crackers, cookies, oils, co ondiments, and fu unctional snackss. Categorry leader in fat-frree, natural soup ps, baked produccts, and cereals. U.S. lea ader in safflower oil; known for ca anola/peanut oilss and carrot juice e. Ready-tto-serve, organic c soups and broth hs in aseptic pacckaging. Leader in the organic an nd all-natural nutt butter category.. Natural soup cups. Offers culinary c oils, vine egars, condimentts and butter sub bstitutes as well a as nutritional sup pplements. Natural and organic cho ocolate products for baking, snaccking and candy m making. Organic c juices, canned soups, s salsas an nd sauces. Provide es products for meals centered arround vegetabless, whole grains, ssoups and beanss since 1970. SUBSCRIBE TODA AY! www.manualoofideas.com
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H HAIN CELESTIA AL – OVERVIEW W OF SELECTED BRANDS (conttinued) Brand Natural bevera ages: Celestial Seaso onings Mountain Sun Rice Dream Soy Dream WestSoy Natural snacks s: Boston's Garden of Eatin n' Bearitos Little Bear Sensible Portion ns Terra Refrigerated prroducts: Yves Frozen produc cts: Ethnic Gourmett Linda McCartne ey (under license e) Rosetto Hain Pure Prottein (JV): FreeBird Personal care products: p Alba Botanica Avalon Organics Jason Orjene Queen Helene Zia Natural Skin ncare Brands with Eu uropean presen nce: Grains Noirs Lima Natumi Specialty prod ducts: Alba Estee
Descripttion Founded d in 1970, it is the e leading brand o of natural and sp pecialty teas in N North America. Offers juices with no added artificial flavo ors or colors. Dairy free beverages with h as much calciu um and vitamins A and D as milk. Non-dairry beverages with h the health bene efits of soy. #1 brand d in non-dairy soy y beverages (ava ailable in asepticc, wedge, and reffrigerated varietie es). Pioneer in kettle-popped popcorn. #1 organ nic tortilla brand in the U.S., Gard den of Eatin' is kn nown for its best--selling Blue Corrn chips. Natural brand b of chilis, sa auce mixes, and snacks, includin ng the first snackks to carry the "No-GEI" seal. Organic snack products that t appeal to kid ds of all ages. Lifestyle brand including products such a as veggie straws,, pita bites and bagel tops. Pioneere ed varieties of po otato/vegetable cchips that have c arved new niche e in upscale natural snacks. The Nortth American lead der in the producction of meatless , low fat and cho olesterol free prod ducts. Offers a variety of frozen meals from all o over the world. Pioneer in the meat-free category with itss range of sausag ges, ready mealss, and pastry pro oducts. Offers a variety of frozen pastas and auth hentic pasta mea als that can be re eady in 10 minute es. Offers orrganic chickens. Offers 10 00% vegetarian personal p care pro roducts since 197 79. Offers 10 00% vegetarian personal p care pro roducts since 199 94. Offers pe ersonal care prod ducts since 1959 9. Beauty and a personal care e products free o of mineral oils an nd artificial colorss. Leader in n quality health & beauty productts for professiona al and personal u use since 1930. Founded d in 1084, Zia offe ers skincare prod ducts to nourish skin and minimizze the signs of a aging. #1 cateriing provider in Be elgium (salads, ssandwiches); sup pplies prepared m meals to high-sp peed trains. Offers na atural foods since e 1957, mostly in n France, Germa any and Belgium. German producer of non-dairy beveragess and desserts. Known fo or its non-fat dry milk, shake, and d hot cocoa prod ducts. #1 brand d in the medically y-directed/diet ca ategory for over 5 50 years, Estee m markets foods fo or diabetics.
S Source: Company data. d
SSELECTED FINA ANCIALS OF EUROPEAN ORGA ANIC FOOD PRODUCER ROYAAL WESSANEN (AMSTERDAM: WES) (in millions, except per share da ata) Recent stock prrice Recent date
€ 2.73 9/2/2011
Diluted shares out o Market value Plus: Debt Plus: Non-contrrolling interest Plus: Post-retire ement liabilities, net n Minus: Cash Enterprise vallue
74.6 € 204 101 6 22 43 € 291
Selected trailing g financials (yearr to 9/30/2010): Revenue EBIT excl. spec cial items EBIT margin Tangible shareh holders' equity (9 9/30/10)
709 17 2.4% 49
Selected valuattion ratios: EV/trailing reven nue EV/trailing EBIT T P/TB P/E (this FY) P/E (next FY)
0.41x 17x 4x n/m n/a
$/€: $1.36 $277
$395
ned-around valu uation assuming g various EBIT margins (Hain C Celestial recentt EBIT margin is s ~10%):* Wessanen turn Turned-around EBIT margin ass sumption 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% Trailing revenue e 709 709 709 Turned around EBIT estimate 35 53 71 implied EV-to o-EBIT 8.2x 5.5x 4.1x *
Interestingly, howe ever, Hain is also sttruggling in Europe e. Hain's European operations, which represent 10-15% of total revenue, a are loss-making. S Source: Company data, d The Manual of o Ideas analysis.
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LLions Gate Entertainme E ent (LGF) — Icahn ,, MHR Santa Monica, CA, 877-848-38866
Services: Motio on Pictures Trading Data Price: $6.12 (as ( of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $5.21 - $7.84 Market value:: $837 million Enterprise value: $1.3 billion Shares out: 136.7 million Ownership O Data
Con nsensus EPS E stimates
ww ww.lionsgate.com Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 3/31/11
Latest n/a n/a n/a
Month Ago n/a n/a n/a
# of E Ests n n/a n n/a n n/a
P/E FYE E 3/31/10 P/E FYE E 3/31/11 P/E FYE E 3/30/12 P/E FYE E 3/30/13 EV/ LTM M revenue
FYE 3/30/12
n/a
n/a
n n/a
EV/ LTM M EBIT
Insider ownerrship: 3%
FYE 3/30/13
n/a
n/a
n n/a
P / tangible book
Insider buys (last ( six months): 12
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n n/a
Insider sales (last six months)): 10 Institutional ownership: 92%
EPS Surprise e n/a
Actual n/a
Estimate n/a
n/m n/a n/a n/a 0.8x 1105x n/m
G Greenblatt Crite eria LTM EB BIT yield LTM pre e-tax ROC
0% n/m
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
3/31//04 376 3 195 (7 76) (9 95) (1.3 35) 71 (11 16) 1 (11 17) 7 0 171 763 7 326 3 0 84 693 6 0 70 -22 2%
3/31/05 838 484 48 20 0.19 98 96 3 93 113 0 163 855 1 0 409 738 0 117 36%
Fiscal Yea ars Ended 3/31/06 3/31/07 3/31/08 945 977 9 1,361 488 541 5 700 15 42 (60) (5) 16 (87) (0.09) 0.14 0 (0.74) 103 108 1 118 55 60 89 6 8 4 50 51 86 47 52 372 0 0 0 185 188 1 227 1,053 1,1 137 1,538 15 0 0 0 0 0 385 325 3 329 904 889 8 1,350 0 0 0 149 248 2 188 n/m n/m n n/m
3/31/09 1,466 673 (138) (179) (1.53) 117 (102) 9 (111) 139 0 458 1,667 0 0 537 1,626 0 42 n/m
3/3 31/10 1 1,584 776 58 (19) ((0.17) 118 (122) 7 (128) 91 0 463 1 1,705 0 0 540 1 1,651 0 54 n/m
LTM ME 12/31//10 1,6 636 8 849 1 (12 22) (1.0 00) 122 (9 99) 5 (10 05) 70 0 2 239 1,6 630 0 0 5 559 1,5 553 0 77 n n/m
FQE 12/31/09 343 142 (48) (65) (0.55) 118 31 0 31 105 0 451 1,699 0 0 529 1,627 0 72 n/m
FQE 12/31/10 423 218 22 (6) (0.04) 137 (21) 0 (21) 70 0 239 1,630 0 0 559 1,553 0 77 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Feb 04 0
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
L Lionsgate, foun nded in 1997, produces p and distributes d motiion ppictures and tellevision prograamming. It has ~500 employeees.
FYE Marcch 31 20006 2007 ∆ revenuue 13% % 3% ∆ employyees2 19% % 13% Revenue ($mn) 9445 977 % of reveenue by segment: Motion pi ctures 86% % 88% 14% % 12% Televisionn production Media neetworks3 0% % 0% EBIT marrgin by segment: Motion pi ctures 6% % 12% 6% % 1% Televisionn production Media neetworks n//m n/m Corporatee4 -5% % -6% Total E EBIT margin5 2% % 4% Revenue by distribution channnel: DVD/blu--ray/EST6 56% % 55% 22% % 22% TV (broaddcast/cable)7 Movie theeaters 15% % 11% Internatioonal/other8 7% % 12% % of reveenue by customer lo cation: U.S. 90% % 86% Internatioonal 10% % 14% Selected items as % of revennue: Direct exppenses9 48% % 45% Distributioon expenses 42% % 41% G&A expeenses 7% % 9% Net incom me 0% % 2% Net cash from ops 13% % 11% D&A10 0% % 0% Capex10 1% % 1% FCF ($mnn) 1115 99 ∆ shares out (avg) 6% % 5%
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
One of o the largest in ndependent* film f producers and distributors, neext to MGM, Summit, S and Weinsstein. Lionsgatee owns a large part p of the 8,00 00+ moviee and 4,000+ TV V titles it distributes into DV VD, broadccast/cable TV and a online chan nnels worldwide. Potential benefits frrom a merger with MGM leed Carl Icahn I to bid $7 7.50 per sharee in 2010 in an n attemp pt to combine the t two compan nies on his own terms.** While a merrger appears more m distant afteer M exited bankrup ptcy and Lionsg gate won a proxy MGM fight against a Icahn in n December, Icaahn retains a 26 6% stake in i Lionsgate an nd likely owns much m of MGM M. EV-to o-average threee-year revenu ue is <1.0x, bassed on aveerage revenue of o $1.5 billion during FY08-1 10. Lionsg gate aims to release 12-15 mo otion pictures annuallly “going forw ward,” in-line with w recent histo ory. Strong presence in TV and homee entertainmen nt produ uction/distribu ution. Movie th heaters represen nt only 10-20% of reven nue, with the reest mostly from m self-diistribution via DVD, D TV, and d online channeels. Conteent library is a source of reccurring revenu ue Lionsg gate has strong franchises in attractive a genress such as a horror (Saw)), documentariees, fitness DVD Ds (Jillian n Michael), and d TV series (M Mad Men).
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Business could likelly be recreated d for less than n recentt enterprise va alue of $1.4 biillion despite th he large content c library and distributio on assets. The most valuable v asset – human capitaal – is mobile. Lack of free cash flow. While Lio onsgate’s conteent has seen much comm mercial and crittical success, FCF F u d. generaation and capitaal return have underwhelmed Icahn’s activism, in ncluding a possible deal with h MGM M, may not result in value crreation for all shareh holders. Icahn’s likely stake in n MGM and hiis litigatiion against Lion nsgate invite co onflicts of interrest and management m enttrenchment. Mark Rachesky’s MHR,, a 29% owner,, is supportive of managemen nt. ~$550 0 million of nett debt guaranteeed by Lionsgaate (includ des Pennsylvan nia loan and co onvertible debtt).
M MAJOR HOLDER RS
2009 8% 15% 1,466
2010 8% -2% 1,584
YTD 12/31/10 11% n/a 1,206
85% % 15% % 0% %
84% 15% 1%
71% 22% 7%
78% 22% 0%
2% % -2% % n/m m -6% % -4% %
-6% 3% 10% -5% -10%
10% 8% 17% -7% 3%
7% 12% n/m -8% 0%
47% % 22% % 14% % 16% %
46% 24% 15% 14%
38% 30% 9% 23%
35% 33% 17% 15%
79% % 21% %
82% 18%
80% 20%
n/a n/a
49% % 47% % 9% % -6% % 7% % 0% % 0% % 866 9% %
54% 46% 9% -12% -7% 1% 1% -111 -1%
51% 33% 11% -1% -8% 2% 0% -128 1%
50% 38% 11% -8% -10% 0% 0% -117 10%
1 Includes the results of Lionssgate UK, Debmar--Mercury, Mandate e Pictures and TV Guide Network from theirr acquisition dates. Also includes the rresults of dation in July 2007.. TV Guide is accou unted for Maple Picttures from consolid under the e equity-method from m May ‘09 when Lio onsgate sold a 49% stake to OEP. 2 As of Ma ay of each year. TV V Guide employees are excluded. 3 Reflects T TV Guide from its a acquisition in FY09 9 to deconsolidation n in FY10. 4 Includes D&A other than am mortization of films and television prog grams. 5 Excludess equity affiliates (YT TD: $46 million losss, mainly from EPIX joint venture). 6 Referred to as “home entert rtainment” (EST= electronic sell-throug gh). The unts for 90+% of YT TD home entertainm ment revenue. motion pictture segment accou 7 The TV p production segmen t accounts for ~60% % of YTD television n revenue. 8 Includes revenue from interrnational motion picctures, Lionsgate U UK, Mandate nd other assets. FY Y10 includes ~$114 4 million of TV Guid de revenue. Pictures an 9 Includes film/TV program am mortization as well as participations/re esidual costs. 10 Excludess amortization/invesstment in films and TV programs (acco ounted for within direcct expenses/net cassh from operations).
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
*
C CEO Feltheimeer 2% | Other in nsiders 4%* | MHR M 29% | Icaahn 226% | Cap Re 9% 9 | BNY Mellon 3% | Clearb rbridge 2% *
20088 39% % 11% % 1,361
Excludes MHR, whose w president Mark M Rachesky is a Lionsgate director.
As oppossed to the six “majjor studios” ownedd by media congloomerates Time Warrner, Viacom, Sony ny, News Corp., NB BCUniversal, and Walt Disney. ** Lionsgaate management annd MGM negotiateed a possible deal separately from Icahnn in 2010. Icahn ddropped his Lionsggate bid in Decembber 2010.
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE L Lionsgate’s shaare price has deeclined from ~$7.50 last December as Carl Icahn droppedd his takeover bbid. Having losst a proxy ffight against management, an nd missed an op pportunity to efffect a merger with MGM onn his terms, Icaahn appears siddelined for nnow. Investors may pin their hopes h on moree activism, inclluding the poteential for a futuure deal with M MGM. However, we are nnot enticed by the t risk-reward d offered by pottential M&A, and a much less thhe valuation off stand-alone Lionsgate. With high debt, loow FCF, and a business lackin ng tangible asssets, there are many m ways to llose as an outsiide shareholderr in this “insideer” battle. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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LLIONS GATE – OUR O ESTIMATEE OF THE EQUITTY FAIR VALUEE RANGE ($ in millions)
Valuation metho odology
Normalized reve enue
1
Normalized EBIT margin
2
Conservativ ve
Base Case
Aggre essive
8x estimate d normalized EBIT T (plus estimated valu ue of equity-metho od investmentss)
1 0x estimated norma alized EBIT (pluss esti mated value of eq quity-method in nvestments)
12x estimated normalized d EBIT (plus estimated d value of equity-method investments)
$1,500
$1,500
$1,500
10.0%
10.0%
10..0%
Normalized EBIT
$150
$150
$1 150
Fair value multip ple
8.0x
10.0x
12 2.0x
$1,200
$1,500
$1,800
125
125
12 25
0
80
16 60
(555)
(555)
(55 55)
Estimated enterrprise value Plus: Value of stake s in TV Guide e Network
3
Plus: Value of other o equity-meth hod investments
4
5
Minus: Net debtt
Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Lionsgatte Implied adj. EV--to-trailing revenu ue
6
7
Implied adj. EV--to-trailing investtment in film/TV programs p
7, 8
7, 9
Implied adj. EV per annual motio on picture releas se ($mn) 7, 10
Implied adj. EV per employee ($ $mn)
$770 millio n
$1 1,150 million
$1,530 million
$5.60 per sha are
$8 .40 per share
$11.20 p per share
0.6x
0.8x
0.9x
2.1x
2.6x
3.0x
$72
$86
$1 101
$2.2
$2.6
$3 3.0
1
Average revenue during d FY08-10 is $1.5 $ billion. Trailing g revenue is $1.7 billion. b 2 EBIT, which excludes equity-method investments, is sta ated after the amorrtization of films and d television progra ms as well as participations and resid dual expense. R Related investments s in films and television programs ("ca apex") is an income e statement expensse and accounted ffor within net cash flow from operations. Lionsgate h has a history of high hly variable EBIT margins m ranging from m positive 2-4% in FY06/07 to negativve 4-10% in FY08/ 09. EBIT margin fo or the nine months ended D December 2010 is ~0%. ~ Our EBIT margin assumption is therefore a pure guess as to the "norrmalized" earning p power of the busine ess at recent revenue levels. 3 Lionsgate purchas sed TV Guide Netw work, a U.S. cable TV T channel, for $24 42 million in Februa ary 2009. It then so old a 49% stake to O OEP, the global priivate equity in nvestment arm of JPMorgan J Chase, in May 2009. Our value estimate of Lio onsgate's remainin ng stake approxima ates the price paid b by OEP of $122 million in cash. 4 Includes EPIX, a JV J with Viacom's Paramount unit and Metro-Goldwyn-Ma ayer Studios (MGM M) formed in 2008 tto create a premium m TV channel and ssubscription vvideo-on-demand se ervice. Lionsgate in nvested $80 million n into the JV throug gh yearend 2010. T The JV remains losss-making based on n the most recent financials. 5 Based on estimate ed net debt guarantteed by Lionsgate as of December 31 1, 2010. The figure,, which excludes re estricted cash and investments, includ des $70 m million of other cash h and $625 million of o debt. Debt is com mprised of a revolv ver ($224 million bo orrowed; matures J uly-13), $236 millio on of senior secure ed secondp priority notes (carrie ed at $226 million; matures m 2016), $13 36 million of three separate s tranches o million; conversion prices range of convertible note s (carried at $109 m frrom $8.25-14 per share), s and $66 million of Pennsylvaniia Regional Centerr production loans ((maturity in 2013). Not included in the e debt figure are pa articipations han the included P a and residuals of $28 82 million and film obligations o and pro oduction loans of $2 278 million (other th Pennsylvania produ uction loans of $66 million). 6 Based on 137 million shares outstand ding (excludes pote ential shares to be issued upon conve ersion of convertiblle debt, as the latte er has conversion p prices of $ $8.25+ per share; convertible c debt is in ncluded within net debt). 7 Enterprise value is s reduced by the es stimated value of equity-method inves stments. 8 Investment in films s and television pro ograms was ~$500 million for the yearr ended Decemberr 31, 2010. 9 Based on manage ement, the company y plans to release 12-15 motion pictures annually, in-line e with recent historry. Our ratios assum me 15 releases perr year. 10 0 Based on 497 em mployees as of May y 2010 (excludes TV V Guide Network employees). e S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
FFILM INDUSTRY Y – TYPICAL RELEASE WINDO OWS 1 Release Period d Theatrical st Home entertainment/DVD/Blu-ra ay/digital (1 cyc cle) Video-on-demand, pay-per-view w and digital renta al Pay television Network (free and basic) Licensing and merchandising m All international releasing
Months s After Initial Re elease — 3-6 mo onths 4-8 mo onths 2 9-12 mo onths 27-30 m months Concu urrent Concu urrent
A Approximate R Release Period 0-3 months 1-3 months 3-4 months 18 months 4 48-72 months Ongoing Ongoing
1
These patterns ma ay not be applicable to every film, and d may change with the emergence of new technologies. First pay television n window. S Source: Company 10-K. 1 2
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LLIONS GATE – SELECTED S INFO ORMATION FRO OM JULY 20100 PRESENTATIO ON ON POTENTTIAL MGM/LG GF DEAL C Complementary asssets:
E Estimated pro form ma cash flow ($ millions): m
IIllustrative valuatiion ($ billions):
S Source: SEC filing, available at http://w www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/929 9351/00009501231 10095415/v57635e exv99w1.htm
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M Mastercardd (MA) — Akre Ak , Brav ave Warriorr , Lone Pi Pine , Tig iger Trading Data
www.mastercard.com
Puurchase, NY, 914-249-20000
Financial: Consumer Financia al Services, Mem mber of S&P 500 0 Consensus C EPS Estimates
Price: $250.74 (as of 2/18/11)) 52-week rang ge: $191.00 - $26 69.22 Market value:: $32.8 billion Enterprise value: $28.6 billion n Shares out: 130.9 million
Valuation n
This quarterr Next quarter FYE 12/31/1 11
Latest $4.07 4.13 16.66
Month Ago $4.00 4.12 16.48
# of Ests 26 25 29
P/E F FYE 12/31/10 P/E F FYE 12/31/11 P/E F FYE 12/30/12 P/E F FYE 12/30/13 EV/ L LTM revenue
18x 15x 13x 11x 5.2x
FYE 12/30/1 12
19.52
19.57
25
EV/ L LTM EBIT
10x
Insider ownerrship: 10%
FYE 12/30/1 13
22.53
23.06
7
P / tangible book
8.2x
Insider buys (last ( six months): 10
LT growth
20.1%
20.1%
13
Insider sales (last six months)): 4 Institutional ownership: 75%
EPS Surpris se 2/3/11
Actual $3.16
Ownership O Data a
Estimatte $3.04
Greenblatt Criteria LTM E EBIT yield LTM p pre-tax ROC
10% n/m
Op perating Perform mance and Fina ancial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
2004 2 2,593 347 238 1.76 135 344 78 266 1,138 1,903 547 3,265 0 1,301 230 2,290 0 975 n/m
2005 2,938 393 267 1.98 135 273 82 191 1,282 2,228 471 3,701 0 1,557 230 2,531 0 1,169 n/m
Fiscal Years En nded December 3 31, 2006 2007 2 2008 3,326 4,068 4 4,992 230 1,099 (546) 50 1,076 (253) 0.37 7.96 (1.94) 135 135 130 650 770 413 95 156 170 556 614 243 2,484 2,970 2,247 3,577 4,592 4 4,312 560 692 488 5,083 6,260 6 6,476 0 80 149 1,812 2,363 2,991 150 19 230 2,718 3,233 3 4,548 0 0 0 2,364 3,027 3 1,927 n/m n/m n/m
2009 5,099 2,260 1,463 11.25 130 1,378 139 1,239 2,880 5,003 724 7,470 0 3,167 22 3,967 0 3,504 n/m
2010 5,539 2,752 1,846 14.09 131 1,697 151 1,546 4,198 6,454 1,207 8,837 0 3,143 0 3,632 0 5,205 n/m
LT TME 12/31 1/10 5,539 2,752 1,844 14 4.05 131 1,697 151 1,546 4,198 6,454 1,207 8,837 0 3,143 0 3,632 0 5,205 n/m
FQE 12/31/09 1,298 468 292 2.24 130 284 43 241 2,880 5,003 724 7,470 0 3,167 22 3,967 0 3,504 n/m
FQE 12/31/10 1,438 569 415 3.17 131 670 46 624 4,198 6,454 1,207 8,837 0 3,143 0 3,632 0 5,205 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Performance and Tra ading Volume D Dynamics
$350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Feb 07
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 106 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA
M MasterCard pro ovides global electronic e paym ment networks.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
#2 glo obal payment card c brand beehind Visa, wiith $2.7 trrillion in gross dollar volumee and 23+ billio on transactions processeed in 2010. The company ow wns brandss including MaasterCard, Maeestro, and Cirru us, which h it licenses to 23,000+ 2 financcial institutionss. EPS iss likely to be much m higher fiv ve and ten yea ars from now n based on a defensible mo oat and continu ued growth h in electronic payments worrldwide. Strong g EPS growth g prospects and a net cassh balance sheet may well w compensatte for a trailing g P/E of ~17x. 2011-1 13 financial ta argets: 20+% compound c ann nual EPS growth g based on n a 12-14% constant-currency y revenu ue CAGR and “minimum” “ 50 0% EBIT margiins. Targetts exclude M& &A and may be adjusted “wheen there is i more clarity around the lon nger-term impaact of the final U.S. debiit [card industrry] regulations..” n debt as of $4 billlion of cash/seecurities and no yearen nd 2010. A $1 billion b share reepurchase annou unced in Septem mber 2010 rem mains unutilized d. Threee-tiered busineess model, with h revenue from m franch hising paymentt platforms, pro ocessing paymeent transactions and prov viding related services. Unlik ke AmEx x, MasterCard does d not issue cards/extend creedit. Generrates ~75% off revenue from m transaction processsing and paym ment-related serrvices (operatio ons fees), with w the remain nder based on the t dollar volum me of MasterCard-brand ded card activitty (assessmentss).
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
“Open n-loop” modell relies on 3rd-party mercha ant acquirrers and card issuers. Whilee Visa has a similar model, Amerrican Express operates o a closeedloop network n that giv ves it more rev venue streams and a contro ol over the funcctioning of the network. Regullatory scrutiny y of interchan nge fees. Whilee MasterCard does nott directly generrate revenue from hange (its bank k clients do), th he fees are an interch importtant driver of sy ystem volume. MasterCard peegs the po otential impact on its U.S. deb bit card businesss (~15% % of company revenue) r as “m manageable.” Litiga ation risk. Afteer settling an an nti-trust case for fo $2+ biillion in ‘06, MasterCard M facees new risks fro om pendin ng merchant in nterchange and other litigation n.
M MAJOR HOLDER RS IInsiders <1% | MasterCard Fo oundation 10% % | T. Rowe 5% %| JJennison 3% | Vanguard V 3% | State Street 3% % | GS 3%
FYE Dece cember 31 2006 22007 Δ processsed transactions1 18% 16% Δ gross ddollar volume (GDV))2 14% 18% Δ GDV (loocal currency) 14% 15% ∆ revenu e 22% 13% ∆ employyees 9% 7% Revenue ($bn) 4.1 3.3 Selected items as % of revennue: G&A 45% 43% Advertisinng and marketing 27% 32% Litigation settlements/other 1% 13% EBIT 27% 7% Net incom me 27% 2% Net cash from ops 19% 20% D&A 2% 3% Capex 4% 3% Processeed transactions (bn) 18.7 16.1 Gross doollar volume ($trn) 1.9 2.3 % of GDV V by card type: MasterCaard credit and charg e 73% 72% MasterCaard debit 28% 27% % of GDV V by geography: U.S. 48% 45% Europe 29% 27% Asia Paciific/Mideast/Africa 15% 15% Latin Ameerica/Canada 11% 10% GDV grow wth by selected geoography: U.S. 16% 11% Europe 27% 15% Asia Paciific/Mideast/Africa 24% 0% Equity ow wnership / voting pow wer (period end) (%//%):3 Public invvestors (class A) 49/83 557/85 Principal/aaffiliate members (claass B) 41/0 33/0 Foundatioon (class A) 10/17 110/15 ∆ shares out (avg) 0% 0%
2008 12% 11% 11% 23% 10% 5.0
20009 7% --3% 2% 2% --7% 5.1
2010 3% 11% 9% 9% n/a 5.5
38% 20% 50% -11% -5% 8% 2% 3% 21.0 2.5
338% 15% 0% 444% 229% 227% 3% 3% 222.4 2.5
33% 14% 0% 50% 33% 31% 3% 3% 23.1 2.7
71% 29%
666% 334%
65% 35%
42% 31% 17% 11%
440% 330% 220% 11%
36% 30% 23% 12%
4% 17% 19%
--7% --6% 16%
0% 11% 27%
66/86 24/0 10/14 -4%
744/88 115/0 100/12 0%
84/89 6/0 10/11 1%
1 Includes transactions proce essed by MasterCa ard (including PIN-b based online debit transsactions, regardlesss of brand). 2 Purcchase volume plus cash volume. 3 Class A ccommon stock is en ntitled to one vote pe er share and has dividend rights, while classs B stock has no vo oting power (only d dividend rights). The e MasterCard Foundation n is a private charittable foundation inccorporated in Cana ada. It is controlled by directors who a are independent of MasterCard and itss members.
COMPARRABLE PUBLIC COMPANY AN NALYSIS
V AXP DFS
75.80 45.50 21.90
Marke et Value e ($mn n) 54,04 40 54,81 0 11,92 20
MA
250.70
32,81 17
Price ($)
Price to Tangible Book 20.5x 3.4x 2.0x
This FY P/E 16x 12x 11x
Next FY P/E 13x 11x 10x
8.2x
15x
13x
F FY End Date S Sep-30 D Dec-31 N Nov-30 D Dec-31
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE M MasterCard is a high-ROIC business b with a worldwide-accepted brand aand a sustainabble competitivee moat. Given tthese sstrong attributees, it should con ntinue to benefiit from global growth g in electrronic paymentss. High EPS groowth prospectss, and the nnet cash balancce sheet, may th herefore compeensate for a ratther high trailinng P/E of ~17xx. Business riskks appear mainnly tied to thhe “open-loop”” payment netw work structure, in i which MasteerCard has to reely on third-parrty merchant accquirers and caard issuers. M Merchant litigattion and potenttial new regulattions, however,, are unlikely too reduce netwoork growth and//or economics m materially. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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M MASTERCARD – OUR ESTIMA ATE OF THE EQU UITY FAIR VALUE RANGE ($ in billions) Valuation metho odology
Conserrvative
Ba se Case
Aggressive
10x trailin ng EBIT
12x trrailing EBIT
14 4x trailing EBIT
2010 revenue
$5..5
$5.5
$5.5
2010 EBIT marg gin
50% %
50%
50%
2010 EBIT
$2..8
$2.8
$2.8
Fair value multip ple
10.0 0x
12.0x
14.0x
Estimated enterrprise value
$27 7.5
$33.0
$38.5
Plus: Net cash
1
Minus: Litigation n-related liabilitie es
2
Estimated fair value of the equ uity of MasterCa ard
3
4.3 3
4.3
4.3
(2.0 0)
(1.0)
(0.3)
$30 biillion
$36 6 billion
$43 billion
$228 perr share
$278 per share
$3 325 per share
5% %
4%
4% 4%
Implied valuatio on metrics based d on 2010 financia als: FCF yield Earnings yield
4
6% %
5%
EV-to-revenue
5x x
6x
7x
EV-to-EBITDA
9x x
11x
13x
1
Per the balance sh heet value of cash and investment sec curities as of December 31, 2010 (no o debt outstanding).. Obligations under litigation settlemen nts were $0.3 billion n per the balance sheet s value as of D December 31, 2010. MasterCard is exp posed to various littigation risks in ncluding merchant lawsuits related to interchange fees. While W the company y has recently execcuted a sharing arra angement that alloccates financial resp ponsibilities w with other defendan nts, including Visa, the dollar amount of o any potential mo onetary damages aw warded against the e company remainss uncertain. In addiition to m merchant litigation, the company faces s potentially advers se regulatory chang ges related to intercchange fees, especcially with respect tto its U.S. debit carrd business. 3 ding. Based on 131 million shares outstand 4 ual EPS growth in 2011-13, 2 based on 12-14% constant-ccurrency revenue C CAGR and “minimu um” 50% EBIT marrgins annually. Management is targeting 20+% annu S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e 2
M MASTERCARD – MANAGEMEN NT’S LONGER-TERM PERFOR RMANCE OBJECCTIVES
D Derivation of mana agement’s projectted 2010-2015 rev venue CAGR:
S Source: Company presentation p dated September 2010.
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P PAYMENTS IND DUSTRY – GLO OBAL PERSONA AL CONSUMPTION EXPENDIT URES, 2005-2015E
S Source: Company presentation p dated September 2010.
M MASTERCARD – GROWTH OPPORTUNITY IN N EUROPE
S Source: Company presentation p dated September 2010.
M MASTERCARD – MANAGEMEN NT’S CAPITAL STRUCTURE “G GUIDING PRIN NCIPLES”
S Source: Company presentation p dated September 2010.
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PPDL BioPhaarma (PDLI) — Bauposst Incline Village, NV, 775--832-8500
Health Care: Biotechnology & Drugs Trading Data
Consensus C EPS S Estimates
Price: $4.93 (as ( of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $4.81 - $7.30 Market value:: $688 million Enterprise value: $926 million n Shares out: 139.5 million Ownership O Data
www.pdl.com Valuatio on
This quarter Next quarterr FYE 12/31/10
Latesst $0.2 21 0.2 20 0.9 90
Month Ago $0.21 0.25 0.90
# of Ests 7 4 7
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV V/ LTM revenue
FYE 12/31/11
1.1 16
1.18
7
EV V/ LTM EBIT
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 12/30/12
1.4 49
1.49
6
P / tangible book
Insider buys (last ( six months): 0
LT growth
n//a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months)): 0 Institutional ownership: 80%
EPS Surprise e 11/10/10
Actua l $0.24 4
5x 5x 4x 3x 2.8x 3x n/m
Greenblatt C Criteria
Estim mate $0. 25
LT TM EBIT yield LT TM pre-tax ROC
30% n/m
Op perating Perform mance and Fina ancial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
12/31//03 67 0 (13 30) (13 30) (1.4 40) 92 (2 24) 171 (19 94) 492 4 502 5 32 742 7 1 35 259 2 294 2 0 448 4 -98 8%
12/31/04 85 0 73 (53) 0.74 95 (27) 96 (123) 232 242 31 714 1 44 258 301 0 413 43%
Fiscal Years Y Ended 12/31/05 12//31/06 12/31/0 07 128 187 22 25 0 0 0 110 155 18 84 (167) (130) (21 1) 0.89 1.20 1.3 34 104 114 11 16 32 79 6 67 41 55 9 95 (10) 24 (28 8) 285 333 41 13 379 380 72 20 455 356 9 91 1,163 1,142 1,19 92 1 1 1 72 106 12 22 507 537 53 35 637 674 68 85 0 0 0 526 468 50 08 45% 59% 49% %
12/31/08 294 0 243 68 1.48 119 80 3 77 144 181 0 191 0 32 511 544 0 (353) 93%
12/31/09 318 0 299 190 1.07 119 187 0 187 303 316 0 338 278 294 461 754 0 (416) >100%
LTME 9 9/30/10 327 0 274 145 0.85 121 209 0 209 227 235 0 258 112 209 353 562 0 (305) n/m
FQE E 9/30/09 9 71 0 67 7 46 6 0.29 9 119 9 29 9 0 29 9 222 2 250 0 0 265 5 200 0 267 7 239 9 507 7 0 (242 2) n/m m
FQE 9/30/10 86 0 73 40 0.24 127 31 0 31 227 235 0 258 112 209 353 562 0 (305) n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume D Dynamics
$35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Feb 02
F 03 Feb
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 110 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
P PDL BioPharm ma manages a portfolio p of antiibody hhumanization patents p and relaated royalty asssets.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
“Roya alty-collector” ” business mod del. PDL divessted its form mer drug disco overy, manufaccturing and comm mercial operatio ons in 2008. Its primary asset since then t is its paten nt portfolio, wh hich PDL licensees to biotech an nd pharma com mpanies. Royaltties comprise 100% 1 of YTD 2010 revenue. Sharees appear to offfer a favorablle, asymmetriic risk-reward, where downside may y be protected by b the run n-off value of the existing roy yalty stream and d materiial upside could d be driven by 1) the growth of existin ng royalties; 2)) potential new royalties; and 3) if PDL L’s legal claims against Geneentech are upheeld. Lack of Synagis-rellated royaltiess in 2010 mask ks strong g underlying y-y y revenue grrowth of ~20% %, driven n by royalties reelated to sales of Genentech drugs Avastin (34% of 1Q-3Q10 reevenue; up 30% % y-y) an nd Herceptin (33% ( of revenu ue; up 18% y-y y). Potential for new ro oyalties from additional a indicaations of existin ng products and d new product approv vals.* PDL’s teechnology has been b incorporaated into an ntibodies to treaat cancer and other o conditionss. May be b entitled “up p to $1 billion” ” from Genentech for breeaches of the 2003 2 settlementt agreement between PDL and Genentech, baseed on certain claimss as outlined in n PDL’s Januarry presentation. CEO John McLaug ghlin (58) is fo ocused on optim mizing return for f shareholdeers. McLaughliin, whosee experience ass Genentech’s general g counseel in 1987-9 97 may be invaaluable, has alsso cut corporatte costs and a paid speciaal dividends fro om excess cash h.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
*
Patents expire in 20 013-14. Upon expiration, e PDL L will no o longer receiv ve royalty reven nue from licenseees. Unless PD DL develops oth her sources of revenu ue, royalties wiill likely cease by 2014. Litiga ating against itts largest licen nsee Genentecch, which h accounts for 80+% of reveenue. Royaltiess on salees of Genentecch drugs that arre made and so old outsid de the U.S. – the subject of Geenentech’s claiims – acco ounted for ~30% % of PDL’s rev venue in 1H10 0. Potential change in strategy, inclu uding the use of o cash to o grow the bussiness. While PDL P managemeent has beeen shareholderr-friendly so faar, running a busineess may be prefferred over a ru un-off scenario o.
PDL has no relateed investment requ uirements such as for f R&D.
1
FYE Dece cember 31 2007 2008 225 294 Revenue ($mn) ∆ revennue 21% 31% Selected items as % of revennue: G&A expeense 18% 18% EBIT 82% 82% Net incom me 81% 80% D&A 0% 0% Capex 0% 0% % of reveenue by type: Royaltiess 100% 95% License aand other 5% % Revenue growth by type: Royaltiess 21% 24% License aand other -59% >100% % of reveenue by licensee: Genentecch 73% 67% MedImmuune 14% 16% Other (inccl. Elan, some Geneentech) 11% 19% % of reveenue by selected undderlying product: Avastin (G Genentech) 26% 25% Herceptinn (Genentech) 33% 38% Lucentis (Genentech) 9% 9% 14% Synagis ((MedImmune) 16% Revenue growth by selected underlying product:: Avastin n/a 26% Herceptinn 14% n/a Lucentis 31% n/a Synagis 14% n/a Tangible equity/assets4 -184% 43% ∆ shares out (avg) 2% 2%
2009 318 8%
YTD 9/30/10 269 3%2
7% 93% 60% 0% 0%
11%3 89% 43% 0% 0%
96% 4%
100% 0%
9% -15%
9% -100%
66% 13% 21%
81% 0% 19%
27% 29% 10% 13%
34% 33% 14% 0%
17% -5% 20% 0% -123% 1%
30% 18% 45% -100% -118% 2%
Based on n continuing operattions only, unless sstated otherwise. The financial results rela ating to former biottechnology, manufa acturing and comm mercial operationss, which were sold d during 2008, are no ot included. PDL did not have any busine esses classified as discontinued operrations in the year-tto-date period. 2 Revenue e is up 20% y-y, exccluding Synagis in 2009 (no royalties in 2010). 3 G&A exp pense totaled $29 m million YTD (3Q10: $11 million), of wh hich $23 million rela ates to professiona l services (3Q10: $ $9 million), mainly legal costs. 4 Per reporrted balance sheett values at each period-end.
$350 million of pro-formaa net debt as off yearend 2010, adjusteed to include caash outflow/infflow from announced seettlements withh MedImmune and UCB in February 22011. Debt inclludes potentially dilutive converts (most of which connvert at $7.11 pper share).
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders <1% | FMR 9% | BlackRockk 7% | BNY M Mellon 7% | Tech 6% | Iridiian 6% | Baupoost 4% Arrowsttreet 6% | RenT
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE P PDL manages a lucrative pateent portfolio an nd receives roy yalties mainly ffrom Genentecch. At the recennt share price, vvaluation aappears to prov vide a favorablee, asymmetric risk-reward: do ownside may bbe protected byy the run-off vaalue of existingg royalties aand related prospects for ongo oing return of capital. c On the other hand, siggnificant valuee may accrue, ddriven by the ppotential ffor 1) growing royalties from existing drugss; 2) new royaltties; and 3) a sspeculative, litiigation-related award. Seth K Klarman’s B Baupost has re--appeared on PDL’s P share reg gister in the Deecember quarteer, when PDL’s share price exceeded recentt levels. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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P PDL BIOPHARM MA – OUR ESTIIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE V RANGE ($ in millions)
Conserv vative
Base e Case
Ag ggressive
Valuation metho odology
Run-off vvalue (detail ed assumpttions follow w)
Run-o off value (de etailed assum mptions follow)
Ru un-off value (detailed asssumptions follow)
$345 5 (44)) (19)) $282 2 197 7 3.5 $690 0 200 0 0 $890 mi llion (353 3) (50)) 0 $490 mi llion $3.50/sh hare 43% % 27% %
$345 (20) (19) $306 2 229 3 3.5 $803 3 300 0 $1,103 3 million (3 353) 0 0 $750 million $5.50 0/share 2 28% 1 17%
$345 (10) (19) $316 253 3.5 $884 400 100 $1,384 million (353) 150 0 $1 1.18 billion $8 8.50/share 18% 11%
1
2010 revenue (s solely derived fro om royalties) 2 Less: estimated d annual G&A 3 Less: estimated d annual interest expense Estimated annu ual pre-tax income 4 Estimated annu ual net income 5 Remaining roya alty revenue perio od in years Estimated cumu ulative cash flow during 2011-14 - assuming 2010 0 revenue kept fl at 6 Plus: Estimated d additional value e from growth of existing e royalties s Plus: Estimated d additional value e from potential ro oyalties based on new drugs Estimated valu ue of cash flows s during 2011-14 4 (not time-adju usted) 7 Minus: Estimate ed net financial liabilities as of 12/31/10 8 Plus/Minus: Pottential award/liab bility related to Ge enentech litigatio on 9 Plus/Minus: Pottential award/liab bility related to other litigation Estimated fair value of the equ uity of PDL BioP Pharma
10
Implied trailing FCF F yield (year ended e Septembe er 2010) 11 Implied dividend d yield based on 2010 special div vidends 1
2 Per company pres sentation in January y 2011. 3Q1 10 G&A expense was w $11 million. As this included ~$9 m million of costs rela ated to litigation, G& &A may d decline going forward. While settlemen nts with MedImmun ne and UCB in Feb bruary 2011 should contribute to lowerr legal costs, an on ngoing dispute with Genentech, 3 a as well as other litig gation, represent offfsets. Estim mated based on deb bt outstanding, inclu uding convertible d debt, at yearend 20 010. While interest e expense 4 sshould decline as a portion of debt is paid p down over time e, we keep interestt expense constantt for simplicity. Assumes PDL m may be able to modestly reduce 5 sstatutory tax rates based b on its deferre ed tax assets. Most of the pate ents underlying PDL L's royalties are se et to expire in 2013//14. Unless PDL de evelops other 6 re evenue sources, most m of its royalties will w likely cease aro ound that time. ~80% of PDL'ss 1Q-3Q10 revenue e is represented byy royalties related to o fast-growing 7 G Genentech drugs Avastin, A Herceptin and a Lucentis. PDL's s 1Q-3Q10 revenue e related to these th hree drugs grew 27 7% y-y. Bassed on yearend 201 10 cash and d debt values per com mpany presentation n from January 2011, adjusted for exp pected cash outflow w/inflow from annou unced settlements w with MedImmune a and UCB in F February 2011. Acc cording to these setttlements, PDL will pay $93 million to MedImmune to ressolve all legal dispu utes The settlemen nt with UCB calls fo or UCB to pay $ $10 million to the co ompany to resolve all legal disputes. As A of yearend 2010 0, PDL had $314 m million of convertible e debt outstanding (convertible at $7.1 11/share) as w well as a $204 millio on remaining balan nce on a $300 millio on note securitized by Genentech roya alties (non-recoursse to the company). Most of the conve ertible debt is 8 d due in 2015. While the t legal maturity of o the note is also due d in 2015, PDL ex xpects to repay the e note by Septemb er 2012. Th he pending Genente ech litigation re elates mainly to PD DL's European pate ents (royalties on sa ales of the Genente ech products that a are made and sold outside the U.S. acccounted for ~30% % of PDL’s re evenue in the first half h of 2010). While e Genentech appea ars to be seeking a halt in royalty payyments related to th hese patents, PDL has countersued and seeks "ccompensatory dam mages, including liquidated damages and a other monetary y remedies set forth h in the 2003 Settle ement Agreement, punitive damages and a attorney’s fees." According to the company, "PDL may allso be entitled to either terminate our license agreementts with Genentech o or be paid a flat royyalty of 3.75% o on past and future U.S.-based U Sales of o the Genentech Products." PDL man nagement has state ed that a "retroactivve royalty rate of 3..75% on past saless of the G Genentech products s made in the U.S. and sold anywhere e plus interest is up p to $1 billion [emp hasis added]." Wh ile this may provide e significant upside e potential for P PDL, our estimates related to Genente ech litigation are mu uch more conserva ative and reflect a n net liability of $50 m million to be paid to o Genentech in the conservative 9 ccase. In addition to the Genentech litigation, PDL is involved in vario ous other litigation i ncluding proceedin ngs related to U.S. patent interference e and 10 E European Patent Offfice opposition. Based on 140 0 million shares ou utstanding (not inclu uding any potential shares related to cconvertible debt, w which is fully 11 a accounted for in ourr estimate of net fin nancial liabilities). PDL paid tw wo special dividend ds in 2010. The firstt special dividend, totaling $60 million n, was paid in A April 2010 and the second, s totaling $70 million, was paid in October 2010. PDL P does not pay rregular dividends. S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
P PDL BIOPHARM MA – ROYALTIEES BY PRODUCCT, 2000-20100 ($ in millions)
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 18, 2011.
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P PDL BIOPHARM MA – GENENTEECH/ROCHE RO OYALTIES
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 18, 2011.
P PDL BIOPHARM MA – DEBT RED DUCTIONS AND D MODIFICATIO ONS
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 18, 2011.
P PDL BIOPHARM MA – DIVIDEND POLICY
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 18, 2011.
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SSeagate Tecchnology (ST STX) — ESL , Glenvview , PPaulson www.seagate.com
Dubllin, Ireland, 354-1-618-0517
Technology: Computer C Storag ge Devices Trading Data
Con nsensus EPS E Estimates
Price: $13.72 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $9.84 - $21.58 Market value:: $6.2 billion Enterprise value: $6.3 billion Shares out: 453.0 4 million
This quarter Next quarter FYE 7/2/11
Valuation
Latest n/a n/a n/a
Month Ago n/a n/a n/a
# of E Ests n/a n/a n/a
P/E FY YE 7/2/10 P/E FY YE 7/2/11 P/E FY YE 7/1/12 P/E FY YE 7/1/13 EV/ LTM revenue
FYE 7/1/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
EV/ LTM EBIT
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 7/1/13
n/a
n/a
n/a
P / tang gible book
Insider buys (last ( six months): 0
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months)): 0 Institutional ownership: n/a
EPS Surprise n/a
Ownership Data
Actual n/a
Estimate e n/a
4x n/a n/a n/a 0.6x 5x 2.2x
Greenblatt Criteria LTM EB BIT yield LTM prre-tax ROC
22% 58%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
7/2//04 6,2 224 1,4 459 444 4 529 5 1.06 452 4 635 6 605 6 30 1,1 183 2,4 461 0 3,9 942 4 1,2 248 739 7 2,0 087 0 1,8 855 33 3%
7/1/05 7,553 1,673 722 707 1.41 468 1,428 691 737 1,836 3,502 3 5,244 4 1,780 736 2,703 0 2,541 52%
Fiscal Ye ears Ended 6/30/06 6/29 9/07 6/27/08 9,206 11,360 12,708 2,137 2,185 3,205 874 614 1,376 913 1,251 840 1.60 1.56 1 2.34 558 512 495 1,457 943 2,538 1,008 906 930 449 37 1,608 1,733 1,144 1,141 4,333 3,801 4,272 2,782 2,488 2,463 9,544 9,472 10,120 330 330 360 3,337 2,649 3,287 640 1,733 1,670 4,332 4,735 5,534 0 0 0 5,212 4,737 4,586 28% 2 52% 56%
7/3/09 9,805 1,410 (2,665) (3,125) (6.40) 488 823 633 190 1,541 4,294 73 7,087 771 3,194 1,926 5,533 0 1,554 -102%
7 7/2/10 1 11,395 3,204 1,740 1,609 3.14 491 1,932 639 1,293 2,515 5,418 38 8,247 329 2,997 2,173 5,523 0 2,724 69%
LT TME 12/31/10 11,121 2,708 1,377 1,196 2.37 486 1,653 1,007 646 2,814 5,826 0 8,658 560 3,178 2,365 5,882 0 2,776 5 58%
FQE 1/1/10 3,027 923 578 533 1.03 498 753 103 650 2,092 4,881 0 7,388 96 2,793 1,895 5,053 0 2,335 n/m
FQE 12/31/10 2,719 529 206 150 0.31 469 507 202 305 2,814 5,826 0 8,658 560 3,178 2,365 5,882 0 2,776 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Feb 03
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
S Seagate manufaactures hard diisk drives.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
World d’s largest pro ovider of hard d disk drives.* In the Deecember 2010 quarter, q Seagatte shipped 7 million n enterprise uniits (~50% of market m shipmentts), 10 milllion units for consumer c electtronic devices (~30% %), and 32 milliion units for traditional deskttop and mobile m computin ng applicationss (~25%). Surprrisingly resilient and cash-fllow generativee busineess through th he cycle. Whilee shipments an nd revenu ue have been volatile v since 20 007, free cash flow remained positiive throughout the period, averag ging ~$780 milllion annually during d FY07-1 10. Sharees trade at a lo ow-teens FCF yield on avera age FY07--10 free cash flow f (10% trailling FCF yield d). This appears a attractiv ve given Seagaate’s marketleadin ng scale and tecchnology, contiinued disk driv ve unit grrowth despite competitive c thrreats, and a decentt balance sheett (~$100 millio on of net debt). Chairrman and CEO O Stephen Lucczo (53) has focuseed on cash gen neration and return r of capittal to sharreholders. Luczo and other in nsiders own 3% %. $2.7 billion b of U.S. federal f tax neet operating loss carryfforwards as off July 2010. Seeagate also has $1.9 billion b state and d $589 million non-U.S. NOL Ls. ESL’ss Lampert bou ught 4 million shares in 4Q1 10.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Pricin ng pressure du ue to technolog gical change and a compeetition. While shipments havee grown based on rising demand for dig gital data storag ge, short producct cycles and industry riivalry have driv ven ASPs down n by 30% % since 2006. This is likely to continue. Various sources of competition in ncluding other indepeendent disk drive producers (e.g. Western Digitaal), large captiv ve manufactureers (e.g. Hitach hi) and altternative storag ge makers (e.g. EMC, SanDisk k). Reliess on few supplliers for some inputs such ass alumin num/glass subsstrates and raree earth elementts. Intelleectual propertty litigation with w the MIT an nd variou us companies in ncluding Siemeens and Rambu us.
*
Hard disk drives are a devices that sto ore digital data on rotating disks with h m magnetic surfaces. While they are oft ften used as a prim mary storage mediu um, aalternative productss include flash mem mory, tape, optical and a solid-state driv ves.
M MAJOR HOLDER RS C CEO Luczo 2% % | Other insideers 1% | FMR 13% 1 | Wellingtton 99% | BlackRock k 7% | Clearbrridge 5% | LSV V 3% | Iridian 2% 2
1
FYE Junee 30 20006 ∆ unit shiipments 2 1% ∆ averagge selling price 1% ∆ revenu e 222% Revenue ($bn) 9.2 % of reveenue by channel: OEMs 722% Distributoors 255% Retailers 33% % of reveenue by geography:2 Asia Paciific 433% Americass 300% EMEA 277% Selected items as % of revennue: Gross proofit 233% R&D 99% EBIT 99% Net incom me 99% Net cash from ops 166% D&A 77% Capex 1 1% Unit shipm ments (mn) 1119 % of unit shipments by type:4 Client com mpute5 733% Client nonn-compute6 155% Enterprisee7 122% ASP per unit ($) 78 Return onn tang. equity 333% Tangible equity/assets 422% ∆ shares out (avg) 66%
2007 34% -9% 23% 11.4
20088 15% % -4% % 12% % 12.77
2009 -10% -13% -23% 9.8
20100 18% % -2% % 16% % 11.44
YTD 12/31/10 2% -7% -5% 5.4
64% 30% 6%
67% % 26% % 7% %
64% 27% 9%
71% % 21% % 8% %
69% 22% 9%
43% 30% 27%
43% % 30% % 27% %
45% 28% 27%
52% % 26% % 22% %
50% 29% 21%
19% 8% 5% 8% 8% 7% 8% 159
25% % 8% % 11% % 10% % 20% % 7% % 7% % 1833
14% 10% -4%3 -32% 8% 9% 6% 164
28% % 8% % 15% % 14% % 17% % 7% % 6% % 1933
20% 8% 8% 6% 14% 7% 10% 98
74% 16% 10% 71 39% 35% 13%
69% % 15% % 15% % 688 55% % 31% % -8% %
70% 16% 14% 59 -170% 25% -5%
70% % 17% % 13% % 588 77% % 27% % 1% %
66% 20% 14% 54 24% 32% -5%
Financialls reflect results fro om Maxtor from its acquisition in May 2006. Based on n the shipping locattion of the custome er. Stated affter goodwill impairrments. 4 FY06/07 breakdown and FY Y06-08 growth rate es are estimated. 5 Disk drive es designed for tra aditional desktop an nd mobile applicatio ons. 6 Disk drive es designed for co nsumer electronic devices such as DV VRs and gaming de evices and disk drivves used for direct--attached storage (DAS). 7 Disk drive es designed for misssion- and businesss-critical applicatio ons. 2 3
COMPARRABLE PUBLIC COMPANY AN NALYSIS
EMC SNDK WDC STX
MV ($mn) 56,000 12,050 7,700 6,210
EV V ($m mn) 54,0 070 10,9 910 4,9 940 6,3 320
EV / Rev. 3.2x 2.3x .5x .6x
P/ Ta ang. Bo ook 14 4.0x 2.1x 1.6x 2.2x
This FY P/E 18x 12x 11x n/a
Ne ext F FY P P/E 16x 12x 9 9x n n/a
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE D Disk drive mak ker Seagate hass shown it can generate g signifficant free cashh flow through the cycle. This is despite opeerating in a capital-intenssive and compeetitive industry y. While capablle and incentiviized managem ment has helpedd, investors seeem to also uunderappreciatee the strong maarket position the t business occcupies. It is thherefore not surrprising that Seeagate was recently in ““discussions wiith private equity firms regarding a going private transactiion” (discussioons ended in laate 2010). Conccerns aaround the susttainability of diisk drive growtth in the face of o alternative sttorage technoloogies may be legitimate. How wever, w with shares trad ding at a low-teeens FCF yield d on average frree cash flow dduring 2007-100, these concernns appear discoounted. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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SSEAGATE TECHN NOLOGY – OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RAANGE ($ in billions) Valuation metho odology 1
Normalized reve enue 2 Normalized EBIT margin Estimated norm malized EBIT Fair value multip ple Estimated enterrprise value 3 Minus: Net debtt 4 Minus: Litigation n liability Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Seagate
5
Co onservative
Base Case
Agg gressive
8xx estimated norm malized EBIT
10x estimatted normalized E EBIT
12x e estimated norma alized EBIT
$10.0 7.5% $0.8 8.0x $6.0 (0.1) (0.5) $ $5.4 billion $11..50 per share
$10.0 7.5% $0.8 10.0x $7.5 (0.1) (0.3) $7.1 billion $15.20 per sh hare
$ $10.0 7 7.5% $0.8 1 12.0x $9.0 (0.1) (0.0) $8.9 9 billion $18.90 0 per share
12% 22% 2.8x 5.3x 4.4x 0.5x
9% 17% 3.5x 6.6x 5.4x 0.7x
7% 13% 4.2x 7.9x 6.5x 0.8x
15% 3.5x 5.9x 7.1x 0.5x
11% 4.4x 7.8x 8.9x 0.7x
9% 5.3x 9.7x 1 10.6x 0.8x
2.0x $114,068 $31 $58
2.6x $142,586 6 $39 $58
3.2x $1 171,103 $47 $58
6
Implied valuatio on metrics based d on trailing financ cials: FCF yield Earnings yield EV-to-EBITDA EV-to-EBITDA minus m capex EV-to-EBIT EV-to-revenue 7 Implied valuatio on metrics based d on average financials during FY Y07-10: FCF yield EV-to-EBITDA EV-to-EBITDA minus m capex EV-to-EBIT EV-to-revenue 8 Other valuation metrics: Implied fair valu ue of the equity to o tangible book Implied EV per employee ($) Implied EV per unit shipped in FY10 F ($) Average selling price per unit in FY10 ($) 1
Average revenue during d FY07-10 (fo ollowing the acquisition of Maxtor in FY Y06) was $11.3 billlion, with a peak off $12.7 billion in FY Y07 and a trough off $9.8 billion in F FY09 (fiscal yearend is June). Revenu ue for the year ende ed December 2010 0 is $11.1 billion. Ou ur normalized reve enue estimate of $1 10.0 billion may the erefore be 2 cconsidered conserv vative in the historic cal context. Average A EBIT marrgin during FY07-10 0 was 7% (adjusted d for impairment off goodwill and otherr long-lived a assets in FY09), witth a peak of 15% in n FY10 and a trough of -4% in FY09 (a after adjusting for tthe impairment of g goodwill and other llong-lived assets). The EBIT m margin for the year ended December 2010 2 is 12% (howe ever, it was only 8% % in the seasonally strong June-Decem mber period, comp pared to 14% in the e year-ago 3 p period, due to a gro oss margin decline of o ~800 bps). Per balance she eet values as of Deccember 31, 2010 (e excludes restricted d cash and investments of $97 4 m million). Average ne et debt may be high her than the yearen nd figure due to sea asonality. Se eagate is a defend ant in various intelllectual property law wsuits brought b by the MIT as well as a numerous companies including Sie emens, Rambus, an nd Convolve amon g others. Our litiga ation liability estima ates are a guess; fu urther 5 6 7 d diligence is required d. Based on 470 million diluted d shares outstandin ng. Based on n the year ended D December 2010. FY09 financia als exclude 8 im mpairment of goodw will where applicab ble. Based on o latest available figures. FY10 is for the year ended Ju uly 2, 2010. S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
SSEAGATE TECHN NOLOGY – FREEE CASH FLOW,, FISCAL Q2 20011
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 19, 2011.
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SSEAGATE TECHN NOLOGY – FIN NANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS, LAST EIGHT E QUARTEERS
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 19, 2011.
SSEAGATE TECHN NOLOGY – UNITS BY MARKEET, LAST 16 QU UARTERS
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 19, 2011.
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SSprint Nexttel (S) — Chhou , GolldenTree , Greenlig ight Trading Data
Con nsensus EPS Es stimates
Price: $4.50 (as ( of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $3.21 - $5.31 Market value:: $13.4 billion Enterprise value: $28.2 billion n Shares out: 2,987.0 2 million Ownership O Data
www.sprint.com
Overlaand Park, KS, 703-433-40000
Services: Com mmunications Se ervices, Member of S&P 500
Valuation
This quarter Next quarter FYE 12/31/11 1
Latest -$0.21 -0.18 -0.79
Month Ago -$0.19 -0.16 -0.73
# of Essts 2 24 2 23 2 29
P/E FYE E 12/31/10 P/E FYE E 12/31/11 P/E FYE E 12/30/12 P/E FYE E 12/30/13 EV/ LTM M revenue
n/m n/m n/m n/m 0.9x
FYE 12/30/12 2
-0.59
-0.47
2 27
EV/ LTM M EBIT
n/m
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 12/30/13 3
-0.03
0.01
12
P / tangible book
n/m
Insider buys (last ( six months): 0
LT growth
0.9%
0.9%
2
Insider sales (last six months)): 1 Institutional ownership: 87%
EPS Surprise e 2/10/11
Actual -$0.29
Estimate -$0.30
G Greenblatt Crite eria LTM EBIT yield LTM pre e-tax ROC
-2% -4%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
200 04 21,64 47 11,80 09 (1,99 99) (1,02 28) (1.4 40) 1,44 43 6,63 33 4,015 2,618 4,62 21 9,97 75 7,83 36 41,32 21 1,28 88 6,90 02 15,916 27,55 53 24 47 13,52 21 -9 9%
2005 28,771 16,234 2,141 1,778 0.40 2,033 10,679 5,207 5,472 10,666 19,092 49,307 102,760 5,045 14,051 19,969 50,576 247 51,937 9%
Fiscal Years Ende ed December 31 , 2006 2007 2008 41,003 40,146 35,635 24,240 22,955 18,889 2,484 (28,7 740) (2,642) 1,327 (29,4 444) (2,796) 0.33 (10.24) (0.98) 2,950 2,874 2,863 10,958 9,245 6,179 8,378 7,157 4,683 2,580 2,088 1,496 3,719 2,061 2,440 10,304 8,661 8,642 60,057 28,139 22,886 97,161 64,295 58,550 618 1,143 1,661 9,742 9,102 6,281 21,011 20,469 20,992 44,030 42,160 38,635 0 0 0 53,131 22,135 19,915 13% -11% 10% -11
2009 32,260 15,825 (1,398) (2,436) (0.84) 2,886 4,891 2,194 2,697 3,924 8,593 23,462 55,424 768 6,785 20,293 37,329 0 18,095 -7%
2 2010 32 2,563 15 5,071 ((595) (3,,465) (1 1.16) 2 2,988 4 4,815 2 2,394 2 2,421 5 5,473 9 9,880 22 2,704 51 1,654 1,656 1 7 7,891 18 8,535 37 7,108 0 14 4,546 -4%
LTM ME 12/31//10 32,5 563 15,0 071 (59 95) (3,46 65) (1.1 16) 2,9 988 4,8 815 2,3 394 2,4 421 5,4 473 9,8 880 22,7 704 51,6 654 1,6 656 7,8 891 18,5 535 37,108 0 14,5 546 -4 4%
FQE 12/31/09 7,868 3,789 (544) (980) (0.34) 2,899 1,215 604 611 3,924 8,593 23,462 55,424 768 6,785 20,293 37,329 0 18,095 n/m
FQE 12/31/10 8,301 3,733 (139) (929) (0.31) 2,991 1,467 626 841 5,473 9,880 22,704 51,654 1,656 7,891 18,535 37,108 0 14,546 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0 Feb 02
Feb 03
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1 FYE Dece cember 31 2006 ∆ wirelesss postpaid ARPU2 -3% ∆ wirelesss prepaid ARPU2 -11% 13% ∆ wirelesss postpaid custome rs ∆ wirelesss prepaid customerss 53% ∆ total wiireless customers 12% ∆ wirelesss retail service reve nue 12% 43% ∆ revenu e ∆ employyees2 -19% Revenue ($bn) 41.0 % of reveenue by segment: Wireless3 86% Wireline 14% Adj. EBITTDA margin by segm ment:4 Wireless 20% 18% Wireline Total aadj. EBITDA margin 20% Selected items as % of revennue: Gross proofit 59% EBIT5 6% Net incom me 2% Net cash from ops 25% D&A 23% Capex 18% Investmeent in FCC licenses 2% FCF afterr FCC licenses ($bn ) 1.7 Wireless customers (mn) 53.1 % of wireeless customers by ty type: Postpaid 79% Prepaid 8% Wholesalle/affiliate 14% Monthly w wireless churn by cuustomer type: Postpaid 2.2% Prepaid 6.2% Tangible equity/assets6 -18% ∆ shares out (avg) 45%
S Sprint Nextel provides p comm munications serv vices in the U.S S.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
#3 U.S S. wireless serrvice provider with 50 millio on custom mers,* behind AT&T A (96 milllion) and Verizzon (94 miillion), ahead of o T-Mobile US SA (34 million n). 2010 FCF F yield in th he high-teens is i attractive ev ven without likely EBIT TDA improvem ments. Free caash flow benefits b from lo ow cash taxes due d to GAAP losses and lower receent capex relattive to 2006-08 8. o Sprint’s S wirelesss Margiin expansion opportunity. adjusted EBITDA margin m on servicce revenue wass 18% in n 2010 (2009: 20 2 %). This com mpares to 25+% at smalleer T-Mobile an nd 40+% at AT&T and Verizo on. May reinstate r divid dends/share bu uybacks. Whille the creedit facility pro ohibits dividends as long as debt d to adju usted EBITDA A is >2.5x, furth her debt paydown ($2.4 billion b in 2010 0) could enable capital return.. Owns large, next-geeneration wireeless networkss in an ind dustry with scarrce spectrum. Sprint’s S WiMA AX footprrint, including a stake in Clearwire (CLWR)), coverss ~110 million points of preseence, enabling it to com mpete against riival “4G” techn nologies such as HSPA A+ (AT&T/T-M Mobile) and LT TE (Verizon). Dan Hesse H (56), who became CEO O in 2007, hass reduced churn by im mproving custo omer service and expand ding the produ uct lineup to An ndroid devices. U.S. wireless w industtry service rev venue to grow at 3% CAGR 2010-15 5, driven by 19% % data growth h, offset by SMS/voicee declines (sourrce: T-Mobile).
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Challeenges to EBIT TDA margin expansion inclu ude ongoin ng requirementts for handset subsidies, s as well w as marrketing and oth her costs, to staay competitive.. Less scale s versus AT T&T/Verizon is a disadvantag ge. Capex x requirementts may increasse given high network buildout/maaintenance costts, competition n, as well as regulatory an nd technology-related risks.** 2011 capex c guidancee is $3 billion (up ( 25+% y-y). $14.7 billion of net debt (2.6x 201 10 adj. EBITDA A).
CCOMPARABLE PUBLIC P COMPA ANY ANALYSISS
VZ Q PCS S
MV ($mn) 103,520 0 11,990 0 4,750 0 13,440 0
EV ($mn) 149,100 23,570 7,190 28,160
EV E / Rev. R 1.4x 1 2.0x 2 1.8x 1 .9x
P/ Tang. Book n/m n/m 295.0x n/m
This FY P/E 16x 16x 20x n/m
Next FY P/E 14x 16x 14x n/m
1
20007 -33% -99% -33% 144% 00% 00% -22% -77% 400.1
2008 -5% 0% -10% -21% -9% -11% -11% -7% 35.6
20099 0% % 10% % -7% % 197% % 0% % -8% % -9% % -29% % 32.33
2010 -2% -15% -3% 15% 4% 2% 1% -3% 32.6
866% 144%
85% 15%
86% % 14% %
88% 12%
299% 200% 277%
22% 23% 22%
19% % 27% % 20% %
16% 27% 17%
577% 22% -733% 233% 222% 166% 22% 22.1 533.0
53% -5% -8% 17% 24% 11% 2% 1.5 48.3
49% % -4% % -8% % 15% % 23% % 5% % 2% % 2.77 48.11
46% -2% -11% 15% 19% 6% 1% 2.4 49.9
777% 99% 144%
76% 7% 17%
71% % 22% % 7% %
66% 25% 9%
2.22% 6.88% -166% -33%
2.2% 8.4% -8% 0%
2.2% % 6.3% % -17% % 1% %
2.0% 5.4% -28% 4%
Financialls are not compara able due to acquisitions of PCS affiliates and Virgin Mobile US SA (2009), the contrribution of the next generation wirelesss network to Clearwire ((2008) and the Sprint-Nextel merger (2 2005). Financials exxclude Embarq which wass spun-off in 2006. C Certain 2006 y-y fig gures are pro-forma for Nextel. 2 2006 deccline is due to the E Embarq spin-off. 20 010 figure is estima ated. 3 ~90% of 2010 revenue is re etail service revenu ue; rest mostly equiipment sales. 4 Excludess severance, exit co osts, impairments, and merger/integra ation costs. Also exclu des contribution off Clearwire and other equity-method in nvestments. 5 Excludess goodwill impairme ent and contribution n of equity-method investments. 6 Book valu ue of FCC licensess is subtracted from m equity and assetss.
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders <1% | FMR 144% | Dodge & C Cox 8% | BlackkRock 8%
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends? *
66% of w which “postpaid” ((contract) versus ppre-paid, wholesalee or affiliate. The com mpany relies on W WiMAX, CDMA annd iDEN technologgies.
**
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE T The share pricee of U.S. wireleess communicaations providerr Sprint Nextel has declined ffrom $20+ in 22006 as a resultt of Nextel m merger integrattion problems and a a weak eco onomy. Turnarround efforts byy CEO Hesse aare finally show wing signs of ssuccess in thhe form of multi-year bests for f new custom mers and churn in 2010. If wirreless margin ccan be improveed to the level oof smaller rrival T-Mobile USA, shares may m be worth tw wice recent priices. Even if E EBITDA stays fflat at the deprressed 2010 levvel, the hhigh-teens FCF F yield is attracctive (at recent capex). Assum ming further deebt paydown, ddividends or buuybacks may sooon follow. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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SSPRINT NEXTELL – OUR ESTIM MATE OF THE EQ QUITY FAIR VA ALUE RANGE ($ in billions)
Valuation metho odology
Conservative
Ba ase Case
Aggressive
10x estimated norrmalized EBITDA A minus capex of ~$3 .0 billion (approximate es 2010 adj. EBITDA min nus capex, including FC CC lice ense expenditure e)
10xx estimated norma lized EBITDA minus ccapex of ~$4.5 billion (asssumes wireless service E EBITDA margin expansio on to 25%, from 17.5 5% in 2010)
10x estimated normalized d EBITDA minus cape ex of ~$5.5 billion (assum mes wireless service EBIT TDA margin expansion to o 30%, from 17.5% in n 2010)
Wireless busine ess: 2010 service rev venue
1
Normalized EBITDA margin
2
Normalized EBITDA 3
Minus: Normaliz zed capex
$25.9
$25.9
$25 5.9
17.5%
25.0%
30.0 0%
$4.5
$6.5
$7.8
(2.0)
(2.5)
(3.0)
Estimated norm malized EBITDA minus m capex
$2.5
$4.0
$4.8
Fair value multip ple
10.0x
10.0x
10.0x
Estimated enterrprise value of wiireless business (A)
$25.3
$39.7
$47 7.7
Wireline business: Normalized reve enue
4
Normalized EBITDA margin
5
Normalized EBITDA
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
25.0%
27.5%
30.0 0%
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
Minus: Normaliz zed capex
(0.3)
(0.4)
(0.4 4)
Estimated norm malized EBITDA minus m capex
$0.5
$0.6
$0.8
Fair value multip ple
10.0x
10.0x
10.0x
Estimated enterrprise value of wiireline business (B)
$4.5
$6.1
$8.0
$29.8
$45.9
$55 5.7
6
Estimated total enterprise value (A) + (B) Plus: Equity-acc counted investme ents
7
8
Minus: Net debtt (12/31/2010) 9
Minus: Net postt-retirement liability
Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Sprint Ne extel
10
0.0
0.0
0.0
(14.7)
(14.7)
(14.7)
(0.4)
(0.4)
(0.4 4)
$15 billion
$3 31 billion
$41 billion
$4.90 $ per share
$10.3 30 per share
$13.60 pe er share
Implied 2010 FC CF yield
16%
8%
6% %
Implied FCF yie eld on average 20 006-10 FCF
14%
7%
5% %
Implied EV-to-2 2010 adj. EBITDA A
5.3x
8.1x
9.9 9x
0.9x
1.4x
1.7 7x
$597
$919
$1,1 116
$294
$616
$81 13
Implied EV-to-2 2010 revenue 11
Implied EV per wireless custome er
11
Implied fair valu ue of the equity per p wireless custo omer 1
Service revenue re epresented ~90% of o wireless revenue e in 2010, with the remainder r from equ uipment sales. 2 2010 adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.5% 1 (based on ad djusted EBITDA div vided by non-equip pment revenue). Ad djusted EBITDA exxcludes severance, exit costs, g goodwill and asset impairments, i and merger m and integrattion expenses. Sprrint's wireless adjussted EBITDA margiin on service reven nue compares to 25 5+% at ssmaller competitor T-Mobile T USA and 40+% at AT&T and d Verizon. 3 Normalized capital expenditure is ass sumed at 8%, 10% % and 12% of revenue, respectively. A Average 2006-10 wireless capex, inclu uding expenditure o on FCC licenses, as a perce entage of wireless revenue r is ~13% (2 2010: $1.9 billion or ~7.5%) . 2011 ca pex guidance is "a pproximately $3 billion" including wire eline and ccorporate capex wh hich totaled $0.5 billion in 2010. 4 2010 wireline reve enue was $4.0 billio on, down 11% y-y. 5 2010 wireline adju usted EBITDA marg gin was 27.5%, roughly flat y-y. 6 Based on 10% of estimated e normaliz zed wireline revenue. 2010 wireline ca apex was ~$230 miillion (~6% of wireliine revenue). 7 We do not accoun nt for value drag from corporate overhe eads as these have e not been significa ant historically. Acccordingly, the comb bined wireless and wireline ssegment EBITDA approximate reporte ed company EBITD DA. 8 estments and other assets" on its bala ance sheet as of ye earend 2010. The main component iss an interest in Clea arwire The company had $3.9 billion of "inve (C CLWR), a wholesa ale provider of 4G network n services to the company. We do not value this in nterest separately, as we assume it iss effectively reflecte ed in the value o of the wireless busin ness in our valuatio on (reported segme ent EBITDA, howev ver, excludes the co contribution from eq quity-method investtments including Clearwire). 9 Based on $403 miillion of underfundin ng at December 31, 2009, when the fa air value of projecte ed benefit obligatio ons was $1.6 billion n. 10 0 Based on 2,991 million m diluted share es outstanding. 11 1 Based on ~50 milllion total wireless customers c at yeare end 2010 (of which 66% are postpaid,, 25% pre-paid and d 9% wholesale/affiliate). S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
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SSPRINT NEXTELL – FREE CASH FLOW, 2009-10
*
FCF is the cash prrovided by operating activities less the e cash used in inve esting activities othe er than short-term investments and eq quity method invesstments. S Source: Sprint Nexttel presentation datted February 10, 20 011.
INDUSTRY – AN NNUAL POSTPAID SUBSCRIB BER CHANGE VERSUS V PRIOR YEAR, 2006-110 *
*
Based on Sprint Pro-forma results forr 2005, Verizon Pro o-forma results for 2008-2010 and T-M Mobile Q4 consenssus estimates. S Source: Sprint Nexttel presentation datted February 10, 20 011.
INDUSTRY – REEVENUE AND PROFITABILITY P Y DEVELOPMEN NT IN U.S. MO OBILE MARKET,, 2009-10 *
1
For T-Mobile USA A OIBDA margin in % of service revenues (US GAAP) forr better comparabillity with the other U US carriers. S Source: T-Mobile USA investor day presentation, dated January J 20, 2011.
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V Vulcan Matterials (VMCC) — Southheastern ,, Weitz Trading Data
www.vulcanmaterials.com
Birminghham, AL, 205-298-3000
Capital Goods: Construction - Raw Materials, Member of S& &P 500 Con nsensus EPS Es stimates
Price: $46.73 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $35.40 - $59.90 Market value:: $6.0 billion Enterprise value: $8.7 billion Shares out: 128.4 million
This quarter Next quarterr FYE 12/31/11
Latest -$0.49 0.10 -0.36
Month Ago -$0.43 0.14 -0.13
Valuation # off Estss 15 15 19
P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 P/E FYE 12/30/13 EV/ LTM re evenue
FYE 12/30/12
0.21
0.81
16
EV/ LTM E EBIT
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 12/30/13
1.57
n/a
3
P / tangible e book
Insider buys (last ( six months): 5
LT growth
10.6%
9.5%
5
Insider sales (last six months)): 6 Institutional ownership: 89%
EPS Surprise 2/2/11
Ownership O Data
Actual -$0.36
Estimate -$0.18
n/m n/m 223x 30x 3.4x n/m 34.0x
G Greenblatt Criterria LTM EBIT yield LTM pre-ta ax ROC
0% 0%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
2004 2 2,454 2 583 410 287 2.52 102 581 204 377 451 1,418 600 3,665 3 3 427 605 1,651 0 2,014 2 20%
2005 2,895 709 477 389 3.31 102 473 216 258 450 1,165 676 3,590 272 571 323 1,457 0 2,134 23%
Fiscal F Years Ended December 31 1, 2006 200 07 2008 2009 3,343 3,32 28 3,651 2,691 932 95 51 750 446 695 714 249 149 470 45 51 1 30 4.81 4.6 66 0.03 0.16 98 97 9 110 119 579 70 08 435 453 435 48 83 353 110 144 22 25 82 343 55 35 3 47 26 731 1,15 57 894 733 3,779 691 3,911 3,759 3,428 8,93 36 8,917 8,525 200 2,12 27 1,394 622 488 2,52 28 1,663 857 2,116 322 1,53 30 2,154 1,417 5,17 77 5,363 4,488 0 0 0 0 2,011 3,76 60 3,554 4,037 33% 22 2% 5% 3%
20 010 2,5 559 3 301 (1 15) (9 96) (0.8 80) 1 28 2 203 86 1 16 48 7 772 3,7 789 8,3 338 291 2 5 566 2,4 428 4,3 373 0 3,9 965 0 0%
LTME E 12/31/10 2,55 59 301 (15 5) (97 7) (0.80 0) 128 203 86 116 48 772 3,789 8,338 291 566 2,428 4,373 0 3,965 0% %
FQE 12/31/09 590 68 1 (13) (0.10) 126 98 16 83 26 733 3,779 8,525 622 857 2,116 4,488 0 4,037 n/m
FQE 12/31/10 586 51 (30) (47) (0.36) 129 75 24 51 48 772 3,789 8,338 291 566 2,428 4,373 0 3,965 n/m
Feb 10
Feb 11
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Feb 02
Feb 03
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Feb 04 0
Feb 05
Feb 06
Feb 07
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Feb b 08
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
V Vulcan providees construction n materials in th he U.S.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
#1 U.S S. producer off construction aggregates, which h drive ~95% of company rev venue, including g in dow wnstream asphaalt/concrete operations.* Vulccan is also o a large produccer of cement in i Florida afterr it bough ht Rock Industriies for $3+ billiion in 2007. High weight-to-valu w ue ratio of agg gregates resultts in markets that aree local in naturre. Given its sccale m as welll as own aggreg gate advanttages in most markets, reserves, Vulcan is not n just a comm modity player. Owns permitted an nd proven/prob bable stone reserv ves totaling 14 4+ billion tons. The competittive locatio ons and quality of reserves aree barriers to enttry. Equity y is highly gea ared to an imp provement in deman nd for constru uction materia als in the U.S. Aggreegates shipmen nts in 2010 are roughly r half off prior peak p level in 20 006 (cash earnings per ton off aggreg gates sold in 20 010 are 10+% higher h versus ’0 06). ~50% % of aggregatess produced arre used to build d and maintain m publicly funded projects includin ng highw ways, bridges, ro oads, airports, railroads, and water//sewer systemss. Other uses in nclude residential, comm mercial and indu ustrial building g construction. “Expeect aggregatess shipments an nd pricing to increa ase…leading to t earnings gro owth in 2011.” ”A key drriver of demand d is U.S. stimu ulus funding. Mainttained positivee FCF through h the downturrn, generaating $343 million in 2009, $1 116 million in ‘10.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Valua ation appears to t reflect a retturn to more norma alized econom mics. EV-to-aveerage 2006-10 adj. EB BITDA is 12x (9x prior peak k in 2007). Averaage 2006-10 FC CF of ~$180 million m implies a 3% yieeld (6% on prio or peak FCF in n 2009, which benefiited from work king capital infllows).** $2.7 billion b of net debt d (~7x 2010 adj. EBITDA A) at yearrend 2010. Neaarest significan nt debt maturity y is in Deccember 2012, when w $300 million is due. 2011 capex guidance is $1 125 million (up p 45% y-y). “To date, d the econo omic recovery has not had a signifiicant effect on some of our key k end markeets” based on managemen nt comments in n February. Bo oth aggreg gates pricing an nd shipments declined d 2% y--y in 2010 due to weakn ness in Floridaa and Californiaa.
*
Aggregates comprrise ~95% of asphaalt mix and 78% off concrete by weigh ht. V Vulcan’s asphalt/co oncrete business is largely supplied fro om its own aggregaates. *** Figures do not fu ully capture the con ntribution from Flo orida Rock Industrries.
1
FYE Dece cember 31 2006 20007 Δ aggreggates tons shipped -1% -10% Δ aggreggates avg unit sale p rice2 n/a 13% 2% ∆ revenuue 16% 3.1 Revenue ($bn)3 3.0 % of reveenue by segment: Aggregattes4 75% 775% Concretee/asphalt5 25% 225% 0% 0% Cement6 Gross maargin by segment: Aggregattes 36% 336% Concretee/asphalt 15% 16% nn/m Cement n/m Total ggross margin 31% 331% Selected items as % of revennue: EBIT (exccl. special items) 22% 221% Net incom me 15% 15% Net cash from ops 223% 19% DD&A 7% 9% Capex 14% 16% Unit Shippments (excludes intternal shipments): Aggregattes (‘000s tons) 242 2219 Concretee (cubic yards) 2,893 2,5584 Asphalt m mix (‘000s tons) 12 11 Cement ((tons) 80 n/m Average unit sales price in $ (includes internal saales): Aggregattes (freight-adjusted))2 8.30 99.35 Ready-m mixed concrete 90.37 955.56 Asphalt m mix 43.12 488.47 Cement n/m 933.85 Tangible equity to assets 49% 15% ∆ shares out (avg) -5% --1%
2008 -14% 7% 12% 3.5
20009 -266% 33% -266% 22.5
2010 -2% -2% -5% 2.4
64% 35% 2%
666% 333% 11%
67% 31% 2%
30% 6% 34% 22%
244% 77% -55% 188%
20% -2% -10% 12%
12% 0% 13% 11% 10%
55% 11% 188% 166% 44%
-1% -4% 8% 16% 4%
188 6,350 10 595
139 4,3337 7 2262
136 4,138 7 301
9.98 97.78 55.94 96.75 -4% 13%
10.30 96.53 52.66 95.70 11% 88%
10.13 86.95 50.58 79.27 5% 8%
Vulcan a cquired Florida Ro ock Industries for $3 3.3 billion cash/stocck in 2007. Freight-a adjusted, i.e. total ssales dollars (internal and external) lesss freight to remote disstribution sites divid ded by total sales u units (internal and e external). 3 Excludess delivery revenue, which has a grosss margin of zero. 4 Producess crushed stone, sand, gravel and othe er aggregates, main nly in the U.S. 5 Aggregattes for the segment’s production are a almost wholly supp plied internally. 6 Producess cement in Florida a, mainly for use in own concrete/asph halt business. 2
COMPARRABLE PUBLIC COMPANY AN NALYSIS
MLM VMC
MV ($mn) 4,200 6,000
EV ($mn n) 5,16 60 8,67 70
EV / Rev. 2.9x 3.4x
P/ Tan ng. Boo ok 5.1 1x 34.0 0x
This FY P/E 36x n/m
Next FY Y P/E E 27 7x >99 9x
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Jam mes 1% | Otherr insiders 1% | T. Rowe 9% | S State Farm 9% | PriimeCap 6% | Southeastern 5% % | Dodge & C Cox 5%
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE A As the largest producer p of con nstruction aggrregates, Vulcan n provides basiic materials esssential to the economic infrasstructure oof the U.S. Desspite the comm modity nature off aggregates, th he company’s ooperations havve significant loocal moats duee to the hhigh weight-to--value ratio of aggregates and d control over strategically s loocated rock reserves. While soome investors may be aattracted by hig gh operating an nd financial lev verage to an im mproving U.S. eeconomy, the rrecent valuationn already appeears to rreflect a return to normalized earnings. e Given n a weak balan nce sheet, the rissk-reward doess not strike us aas attractive. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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V VULCAN MATER RIALS – OUR ESTIMATE E OF THE EQUITY FAIIR VALUE RAN NGE ($ in millions) Valuation metho odology 1
Normalized EBITDA 2 Minus: Normaliz zed capex Estimated norm malized EBITDA minus m capex 3 Fair value multip ple Estimated enterrprise value Minus: Net debtt (12/31/10) 4 Minus: Net postt-retirement liability Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Vulcan Materials M
5
Co onservative
Base Case
Agg gressive
12x $ $725 million of e estimated norm alized EBITDA m minus capex
12x $800 million of estimated d normalized EB BITDA minus cape ex
12x $87 75 million of esttimated normalizzed EBITDA minu us capex
$800 (75) $725 12.0x $8,700 (2,671) (322) $ $5.7 billion $4 44 per share
$900 (100) $800 12.0x $9,600 (2,671) (322) $6.6 billion $51 per sha are
$ $1,000 ((125) $ $875 1 12.0x $1 10,500 (2 2,671) ((322) $7.5 5 billion $58 p per share
2% 25x 32x 3.6x
2% 27x 36x 4.0x
2% 30x 39x 4.4x
3% 12x 21x 3.0x
3% 14x 24x 3.3x
2% 15x 26x 3.6x
9x
10x
11x
32x 2%
37x 2%
43x 2%
6
Implied valuatio on metrics based d on trailing financ cials: FCF yield EV-to-EBITDA (excl. ( special item ms) EV-to-EBITDA minus m capex EV-to-revenue 7 Implied valuatio on metrics based d on average financials during 200 06-10: FCF yield EV-to-EBITDA (excl. ( special item ms) EV-to-EBITDA minus m capex EV-to-revenue 8 Implied valuatio on metrics based d on peak financia als (2007): EV-to-EBITDA (excl. ( special item ms) Other valuation metrics: Implied fair valu ue of the equity to o tangible book 9 Implied dividend d yield 1
Average EBITDA, excluding special items, i was ~$700 million m during 2006-10, with a peak off ~$930 million in 2007 and a trough o of $355 million in 20 010. Average 2 2 2006-10 financials do d not include a full contribution of Flo orida Rock Industrie es acquired in Novvember 2007. Normalized cape ex is intended to refflect our a assumption of maintenance capital expenditure required to maintain "norma alized" EBITDA. Th he 2009-10 period iis likely a good indicator of capex required to m maintain operations s. Vulcan spent $11 10 million and $86 million m on capex in 2009 and 2010, re espectively. Manag ement's 2011 cape ex guidance is ~$125 million. 3 Vulcan deserves a relatively high mu ultiple of normalized d cash flow due to the t fact that it is no ot just a commodityy player. The compa any’s operations ha ave significant 4 ocal moats due to the t high weight-to-v value ratio of aggre egates and control over strategically lo ocated, long-life rocck reserves. Based on balance e sheet lo 5 vvalues of pension and post-retirement obligations at yearrend 2009 (gross benefit obligation wa as ~$0.7 billion). Based on 129 9 million shares ou utstanding. 6 7 This is likely reflective of o "through-the-cyclle" economics as 2 2006-07 were "boom m" years and 2009 9-10 "bust" Based on the yearr ended December 2010. 8 yyears. Financials do o not include a full contribution c of Florida Rock Industries s acquired in Novem mber 2007. Financials do not include a full contriibution of 9 F Florida Rock Industries acquired in No ovember 2007. Based on annualizing the latest qu uarterly dividend off $0.25 per share. S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
V VULCAN MATER RIALS – AGGREGATES RESER RVES
S Source: Company presentation p dated November 2010.
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INDUSTRY FUN NDAMENTALS – U.S. AGGREG GATES
S Source: Company presentation p dated November 2010.
V VULCAN MATER RIALS – U.S. FEDERAL HIGHW WAY FUNDING G L Latest highwayy funding projection by Congrressional Budg get Office, 20099-2013
S Source: Company presentation p dated November 2010.
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W Wendy’s/Ar Arby’s (WEN) N) — Southeeastern Atlanta, GA, 678-514-4100
Services: Resttaurants, Membe er of S&P MidCap 400 Trading Data Price: $4.87 (as ( of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $3.83 - $5.55 Market value:: $2.0 billion Enterprise value: $3.1 billion Shares out: 418.4 4 million Ownership O Data a
Consensus C EPS S Estimates
www.w wendysarbys.com Valuation n
This quarterr Next quarter FYE 12/31/1 11
Late est $0.0 02 0.0 07 0.1 16
Month Ago $0.02 0.06 0.16
# of Ests 8 8 13
P/E FYE 1/3/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 P/E FYE 12/30/13 EV/ LTM revenue
487x 30x 22x 19x 0.9x
FYE 12/30/1 12
0.2 22
0.22
5
EV/ LTM EBIT
40x
Insider ownerrship: 6%
FYE 12/30/1 13
0.2 26
0.29
2
P / tangible book
n/m
Insider buys (last ( six months): 3
LT growth
15.0 %
16.1%
5
Insider sales (last six months)): 0 Institutional ownership: 70%
EPS Surpris se 1/26/11
Actuall $0.01
Greenblatt Crriteria
Estim mate $0.0 00
LTM M EBIT yield LTM M pre-tax ROC
3% 5%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
12/2 28/03 294 142 1 (11) (0.22) ( 60 (37) 5 (42) 734 773 72 1,043 1 36 162 483 755 0 288 4%
1/2/05 329 158 2 14 0.02 63 (13) 12 (26) 566 670 157 1,067 53 206 447 764 0 303 6%
Fiscal Years Y Ended 1/1/06 12/3 31/06 12/30/0 07 727 1,243 1,26 64 285 429 34 44 (67) 31 2 20 (55) (11) 1 16 (0.83) (0.12) ( 0.1 16 70 87 9 92 (587) 602 2 20 35 80 7 73 (622) 522 (5 53) 974 8 81 270 1,655 392 17 70 594 592 51 14 2,810 1,560 1,45 55 27 23 2 28 1,359 231 20 07 895 702 71 12 2,414 1,083 1,00 06 0 0 0 396 478 44 49 n/m >100% 7%
12/28/08 1,823 407 (414) (480) (3.50) 138 72 107 (35) 90 381 2,265 4,646 30 503 1,081 2,262 0 2,383 -48%
1/3/10 3,581 852 112 5 0.01 467 295 102 193 592 879 2,274 4,975 22 475 1,501 2,639 0 2,336 8%
LT TME 10//3/10 3 3,477 827 78 (7) (0 0.02) 455 212 131 81 521 855 2 2,250 4 4,855 18 457 1,560 2 2,680 0 2 2,175 5%
FQE 9/27/09 903 219 57 15 0.03 468 104 25 79 645 920 2,277 5,068 18 459 1,508 2,669 0 2,400 n/m
FQE 10/3/10 861 194 20 (1) 0.00 418 65 42 23 521 855 2,250 4,855 18 457 1,560 2,680 0 2,175 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0 Feb 02
Feb 03
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
W Wendy’s/Arby’s operates and d franchises fasst food stores: W Wendy’s is the #3 U.S. fast-fo ood franchisor in the hamburrger ssegment. Out of o a total ~6,550 0 stores, ~90% % are in the U.S S. aand ~20% are company-opera c ated (of which most m are owned d). A Arby’s is the #2 2 U.S. sandwich h franchisor (behind Subway)). O Out of a total ~3,660 ~ stores, ~97% ~ are in thee U.S. and ~30 0% aare company-op perated (of wh hich most are leeased).
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
Wend dy’s is #3 burg ger chain in N..A.: 6,200 stores, behind d McDonald’s (16K) and Burrger King (7.5K K). Wendy y’s accounts fo or ~90% of com mpany EBITDA A. “Explloring strategiic alternativess for Arby's, includ ding a sale of the t brand,” peer a statement in i Januarry. Proceeds from Arby’s, wh hich we estimaate is worrth ~$400 million including net n debt (~20% of WEN market value),, may allow mo ore capital returrn. Modestly undervalu ued relative to o Burger King g’s going--private multiiple of 9x EV-tto-EBITDA. WEN’’s recent EV-to o-EBITDA is 8x 8 (assuming Arby’s historical pro ofitability, the multiple m is <7x x). Guidiing for pro forrma company EBITDA of $345-3 355 million in 2011, based on n a sale of Arb by’s and G&A reductionss. Long-term EBITDA E growth is targeteed at 10-15% per p year, beginn ning in 2012. Key K initiatiives: breakfast offerings and global expansiion. Nelson n Peltz and afffiliates own 24 4%. Peltz has been chairman c since Arby’s-ownerr Triarc merged d with Wendy’s W to create Wendy’s/A Arby’s in 2008.. 1
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Declin ning system-w wide Wendy’s same-store s salles, and allready high co ompany-store margins, mak ke EBITD DA growth dep pendent on new w stores. Saturattion and co ompetition in th he U.S., and a laack of brand awaren ness globally, are a challenges to franchising.. Execu ution risk tied to the planned sale of Arby y’s, which h has not grown n same-store saales since 2006 6. 20% of o Arby’s francchised stores arre 60+ days passt due on n royalty or oth her payments to o the company y. $1.1 billion b of net debt d (2.7x adjusted EBITDA)).
CCOMPARABLE PUBLIC P COMPA ANY ANALYSISS
MCD YUM JACK SONC WEN
MV ($mn)) 80,430 0 23,920 0 1,250 0 580 0 2,040 0
EV ($mn) 89,370 26,080 1,550 1,100 3,100
EV V/ Re ev. 3..7x 2..3x .7 7x 2..0x .9 9x
P/ Tang. Book 7.2x 54.1x 3.0x n/m n/m
FYE Dece cember 31 ∆ Wendyy's same-store saless2 ∆ Arby’s same-store sales2 ∆ Wendyy's system-stores ∆ Arby's ssystem-stores ∆ revenu e Revenue ($bn) % of reveenue by segment:4 Wendy's Arby's Adj. EBITTDA margin by segm ment:5 Wendy's Arby's Corporatee Total aadj. EBITDA margin % of reveenue by type: Companyy-operated store salees Royaltiess/franchise fees Selected items as % of revennue: EBIT (adjjusted)5 Net incom me D&A Capex Selected Wendy’s metrics: System-sstores (period-end) % comppany-operated Avg revennue/company store ($mn) Restauraant margin6 Revenue from franchisees ($$mn) Selected Arby’s metrics: System-sstores (period-end) % comppany-operated Avg revennue/company store ($mn) Restauraant margin6 Revenue from franchisees ($$mn) ∆ shares out (avg)
2007 1% 0% 0% 3% 4% 1.2
2008 4% -4% 0% 2% 52%3 1.8
2009 -1% -9% -1% -1% 96%3 3.6
YTD 10/3/10 -1% -8% -1% -2% -4% 2.6
n/m 100%
n/m 67%
68% 32%
70% 30%
n/m 14% -11% 3%
9% 11% -2% 8%
13% 7% -1% 11%
15% 5% 0% 12%
93% 7%
91% 9%
89% 11%
89% 11%
-2% 1% 5% 6%
4% -26% 5% 6%
5% 0% 5% 3%
6% 0% 5% 4%
6,645 21% 1.3 11% 290
66,630 21% 1.47 12%7 2987
6,541 21% 1.4 15% 303
6,554 21% 1.4 15% 223
3,688 30% 1.0 20% 87 7%
33,756 31% 1.0 16% 86 1101%
3,718 31% 0.9 14% 80 151%
3,662 31% 0.8 12% 56 -8%
Financialls reflect the merge er of Triarc Compan nies (franchisor of A Arby's) with Wendy’s In nternational to form m Wendy’s/Arby’s G Group on Septembe er 29, 2008. Triarc ‘07 ffinancials are adjussted to exclude the e divested asset mg gmt business. 2 Based on n North America syystem-stores (U.S. stores only in 2007 7). 3 Reflects tthe addition of Wen uisition in 2008. ndy’s from its acqu 4 90+% of Wendy’s revenue is derived from the e U.S. with the rest mainly from 99+% of Arby’s reve enue is derived from m the U.S. Canada. 9 5 Excludess impairment of goo odwill and other lon ng-lived assets. 6 Companyy-operated store E BITDA margin befo ore corp. SG&A/special items. 7 Based on n annualized 4Q08 8 figures.
MAJOR HOLDERS Chairmaan Peltz and afffiliated entitiess 24%* | Non-P Peltz insiders 1% | Southeasttern 7% | BlackkRock 6% | Vannguard 3% *
Includes Trian Partners andd directors Peter M May and Edward G Garden.
RATING S
This T FY F P/E P 15x 1 18x 1 15x 1 18x 1 30x 3
Next FY P/E 14x 16x 13x 15x 22x
VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE L Less than three years after Neelson Peltz eng gineered a merg ger of Arby’s w with Wendy’s, the company iis seeking to seell Arby’s too focus on Weendy’s. While the t strategy U-tturn is tainting g management ccredibility, Pelltz retains a maaterial econom mic interest aand seems incentivized to maaximize value for f all shareholders. Assuminng Wendy’s is w worth 9x trailinng EBITDA (inn-line with B Burger King’s recent r LBO mu ultiple), and Arby’s A can be so old for 7x deprressed EBITDA A, shares appeaar modestly unndervalued. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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W WENDY’S/ARB BY’S – OUR ESTTIMATE OF THEE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGEE ($ in millions) Valuation metho odology Value of Wendy y's: 1 2011 pro-forma EBITDA 2 Minus: Estimate ed maintenance capex c Estimated EBIT TDA minus maintenance capex Fair value multip ple Estimated enterrprise value of Wendy's W (A) 3 implied EV-to--trailing adj. Wen ndy's segment EB BITDA implied EV-to--trailing Wendy's s royalties/franchise fees Value of Arby's:: 3 Trailing adj. Arb by's segment EBIITDA 4 Fair value multip ple Estimated enterrprise value of Arrby's (B) implied EV-to--trailing Arby's ro oyalties/franchise e fees Estimated total enterprise value of Wendy's/Arby y's (A+B) Minus: Net debtt at 12/31/2010 Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Wendy's/Arby's
5
Implied trailing FCF F yield 6 Implied trailing EV-to-adj. E EBITD DA 7 Implied EV-to-trrailing royalty/fran nchise fees
Conservative e
B Base Case
Aggre essive
Sum-of-the-partts an nalysis (see deta ailed assumptions a belo ow)
Sum m-of-the-parts analyssis (see detailed assum mptions below)
Sum-of-tthe-parts analysis (se ee detailed assumptio ons below)
$350 (100) $250 10.0x $2,500 7.6x 8.3x
$350 (100) $250 12.0x $3,000 9.1x 10.0x
$350 (10 00) $250 14.0x $3,5 500 10..6x 11.7x
$56 6.0x $334 4.5x
$56 7.0x $390 5.2x
$5 56 8.0 0x $446 5.9 9x
$2,834 (1,059) $1.8 billion $4.20 per sharre 5% 7.4x 7.5x
$3,390 (1,059) $ $2.3 billion $5.6 60 per share 4% 8.9x 9.0x
$3,9 946 (1,0 059) $2.9 b billion $6.90 pe er share 3% % 10.4x 10.5x
1
Based on manage ement guidance for pro forma compan ny EBITDA of $345-355 million in 201 1, assuming a sale e of Arby’s and G&A A reductions at beg ginning of 2 2011. In January, th he company has an nnounced it is “explloring strategic alte ernatives for Arby's,, including a sale o of the brand.” 2 Based on manage ement guidance, ca apex in 2011 is expected at $145 millio on. This includes $ $31 million for new units (20 new company-operated storres), $27 m million for remodels s (100 company-ope erated store remod dels), $36 million fo or "maintenance," $ $12 million for techn nology projects, $3 39 million for "other projects." 3 Adjusted EBITDA excludes impairme ent of goodwill and other long-lived as ssets. 4 er EBITDA multiple es for Arby's versus s Wendy's reflect Arrby's weaker brand d positioning, deterriorating same-store e sales, and declining revenue The relatively lowe frrom franchisees. While W the brand may y have turnaround potential, significan nt capital expenditu ure on the part of th he company and/orr franchisees is like ely required. A Arby's has approxim mately $200 million of capital lease ob bligations. 5 Based on 418 million shares outstand ding. 6 3 Capital acquired d Burger King for ~$4.0 ~ billion, includiing debt. The acqu isition price implied d an EV-to-EBITDA A of ~9.0x based on n EBITDA for In October 2010, 3G th he year ended June e 2010. Burger Kin ng has ~12,150 sys stem-stores, of whic ch ~90% are opera ated by franchiseess. This compares to o Wendy's/Arby's ~10,200 ssystem-stores, of which ~75% are ope erated by franchisee es. 7 The company had $377 million of rev venue from royalty//franchise fees for the t year ended Octtober 3, 2010 (~80% of which from W Wendy's). Most of th he Wendy’s a and Arby’s royalty agreements a provide e for royalties of 4.0 0% of franchise rev venues. S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
B BURGER KING LEVERAGED BU UYOUT VALUA ATION METRICSS ($ in millions) BKC enterprise e value in sale to t private equity y buyer Selected valuattion ratios: EV/trailing EBIT TDA EV/trailing EBIT TDA minus capex x EV/trailing EBIT T EV/store ($) EV/trailing reven nue
$4,000 9.0x 13.6x 12.0x $329,218 1.6x
Selected BKC financials fi (fiscal year y ended June e 30, 2010): Revenue EBITDA EBIT Capex
$2,502 445 333 150
Stores (~90% operated o by franc chisees)
12,150
S Source: The Manua al of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
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W WENDY’S/ARB BY’S – 2011 MANAGEMENT GUIDANCE G
*
WENDY’S//ARBY’S – 2011 DEVELOPMEENT PLAN AND CAPITTAL EXPENDITU URE PLAN
Includes breakfastt expense in 2010 and a 2011.
W WENDY’S/ARB BY’S – LONG-TEERM EBITDA GROWTH G TARGEET OF 10-15% %
(b (beginning in 2012) 2)
Q QUARTERLY SSS TRENDS OF SELECTED S HAM MBURGER CHAINS (% change))
B BENEFITS OF POTENTIAL SALEE OF ARBY’S “ “Sale would bee accretive to earnings e and frree cash flow”
S Source: Company presentations p dated d January 27, 2011; available at http:///bit.ly/ijZmqO
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ZZimmer Holldings (ZMH H) — Baress , Edinnburgh , Gates Warsaaw, IN, 574-267-6131
Health Care: Medical M Equipme ent & Supplies, Member of S&P P 500 Trading Data
w www.zimmer.com
Con nsensus EPS Es stimates
Price: $63.73 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $46.27 - $65.22 Market value:: $12.6 billion Enterprise value: $12.8 billion n Shares out: 197.4 million
This quarterr Next quarte er FYE 12/31/11
Latest $1.13 1.19 4.69
Month Ago $1.13 1.19 4.65
Valuation #o of Estts 28 8 27 7 33 3
P/E FYE 1 12/31/10 P/E FYE 1 12/31/11 P/E FYE 1 12/30/12 P/E FYE 1 12/30/13 EV/ LTM rrevenue
21x 14x 12x 12x 3.0x
FYE 12/30/12
5.15
5.11
28 8
EV/ LTM E EBIT
14x
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 12/30/13
5.54
5.45
7
P / tangible book
5.3x
Insider buys (last ( six months): 2
LT growth
10.0%
9.9%
14 4
Insider sales (last six months)): 2 Institutional ownership: 82%
EPS Surpris se 1/27/11
Ownership O Data a
Actual $1.27
Estimate $1.19
G Greenblatt Criterria LTM EBIT T yield LTM pre-ta ax ROC
7% 36%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
2004 2,981 2 2,201 2 763 542 2.19 244 862 240 622 155 1,561 3,324 3 5,696 5 28 701 624 1,753 0 3,943 3 56%
2005 3,286 2,547 1,055 733 2.93 247 878 255 623 233 1,576 3,185 5,722 0 607 82 1,039 0 4,683 75%
Fiscal F Years End ded December 31 1, 2006 20 007 2008 3,495 3,8 898 4,121 2,715 3,0 022 3,124 1,165 1,128 1,090 835 773 7 849 3.40 3.26 3 3.72 243 236 2 227 1,041 1,0 084 1,038 268 331 3 488 772 753 7 550 266 464 4 213 1,746 2,0 083 2,179 3,228 3,3 365 3,647 5,974 6,6 634 7,239 0 0 0 628 749 7 771 104 460 100 1,054 1,184 1,589 0 0 0 4,921 5,4 450 5,650 75% 64% 6 51%
2009 4,095 3,105 1,019 717 3.32 215 1,118 229 889 758 2,738 3,642 7,786 0 691 1,128 2,147 0 5,639 41%
20 010 4,2 220 3,2 208 9 917 5 597 2 .97 2 200 1,1 194 2 272 9 922 9 934 3,0 008 3,4 409 7,9 998 0 7 702 1,1 142 2,2 227 0 5,7 771 36 6%
LTME E 12/31/10 0 4,220 0 3,208 8 917 7 802 2 2.94 4 200 0 1,194 4 272 2 922 2 934 4 3,008 8 3,409 9 7,998 8 0 702 2 1,142 2 2,227 7 0 5,771 1 36% %
FQE 12/31/09 1,107 833 239 155 0.73 210 386 49 336 758 2,738 3,642 7,786 0 691 1,128 2,147 0 5,639 n/m
FQE 12/31/10 1,135 861 123 35 0.18 196 341 98 243 934 3,008 3,409 7,998 0 702 1,142 2,227 0 5,771 n/m
Feb 10
Feb 11
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Feb 02
Feb 03
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
Z Zimmer manuffactures orthopedic reconstrucctive, spinal an nd trrauma devices,, dental implantts, and related surgical s produccts.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
Mark ket leader in orrthopedic reco onstructive implants, including a #1 position in i knees with 27% global g market share s (~$6.5 billion market in n ‘09) an nd #2 in hips with w 21% (~$6..0 billion mark ket). Sharees trade at 8% % trailing FCF yield, with a strong g balance sheet. FCF is likely to increase ov ver time given g good prosspects for indu ustry growth an nd Zimm mer’s likely duraable competitiv ve advantages. Aims to repurchasee $500 million of shares in 2011, on top of 9.1 million m shares bought b back fo or $506 million m in 2010 0 (~$55/share).. Only $200 million n of net debt att yearend 2010 0, and strong FC CF generaation, may allow even higher return of capittal. Aging g populations and a rising liviing standards in emerg ging markets are a growth drrivers. Zimmerr’s footprrint, brand, pay yor relationship ps put it in a positio on to benefit frrom growth of the $35 billion n globall market. Recon nstructive implants, the largesst segmeent with $13 billlion of sales, grew 5% in 2009. Patents, technologiccal/regulatory y know-how an nd proven products prrovide compettitive advantag ges. One in n four primary knee-replacem ment surgeries worldw wide uses the NexGen N brand, Zimmer’s besstselling g product. Sincee introduction in i 1994, 3+ million n NexGen kneees have been im mplanted globallly. Proprrietary trabecu ular metal tecchnology and orthob biologic appliccations such as DeNovo natu ural tissue graft may acceelerate growth via new produ ucts. Expeccts to generatee annualized pre-tax p savings of $100+ + million from restructuring g in 2011.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
*
Industry rivalry an nd regulatory pressure p pose challeenges to pricin ng. Zimmer facces numerous rivals including J&J--owned DePuy y, Stryker, nthes. In additio on, Biomeet, Smith & Neephew and Syn govern nment budgetaary pressures arre likely to contin nue to affect paayor reimbursem ment levels. M&A A-related risks.* Managemen nt may be temptted to acceelerate growth via acquisition ns, especially in emerg ging markets an nd new productt areas. Recentt impairrment related to o the Abbott Spine purchase in 2008 is i an example of o value-destro oying M&A. Frequ uency of “non--recurring” iteems including producct-related claim ms and other “sspecial” items.
M&A is also a potential positive as Zimmer may be an a acquisition targeet.
1
FYE Dece cember 31 2006 22007 2008 ∆ revenuue 6% 112% 6% ∆ due tto volume/mix 7% 9% 3% ∆ due tto price 0% 0% 0% ∆ due tto currency 3% 3% -1% Revenue ($bn) 3.9 4.1 3.5 % of reveenue by product cateegory: Reconstrructive implants2 76% 776% 77% 24% 224% 23% Other3 % of reveenue by geography: Americass 59% 558% 57% Europe 27% 228% 29% Asia Paciific 14% 114% 14% Revenue growth by geographhy (at constant curreency): Americass 7% 110% 3% Europe 6% 7% 4% Asia Paciific 8% 2% 7% Adj. EBITT margin by geograpphy:4 Americass 53% 552% 51% Europe 41% 440% 40% Asia Paciific 47% 448% 44% Corporatee -15% -114% -17% Total aadj. EBIT margin 34% 334% 30% Selected items as % of revennue: Gross proofit 78% 778% 76% R&D 5% 5% 5% EBIT 229% 26% 33% Net incom me 24% 220% 21% Net cash from ops 30% 228% 25% D&A 6% 6% 7% Capex 8% 14% 8% 52% Return onn tangible equity 441% 41% Tangible equity to assets 60% 663% 60% ∆ shares out (avg) -2% -3% -3%
2009 -11% 22% -11% -22% 44.1
2010 3% 3% -1% 1% 4.2
766% 244%
76% 24%
588% 277% 155%
58% 26% 16%
11% 11% 00%
2% 1% 6%
499% 399% 433% -177% 299%
n/a n/a n/a n/a 29%
766% 55% 255% 188% 277% 88% 66% 366% 522% -55%
76% 5% 22% 14% 28% 8% 7% 27% 50% -7%
The $363 3 million Abbott Spin ne purchase in 2008 8 is the largest deall in 2006-10. Includes knees (~55% of ‘1 0 segment revenue e), hips (~40%) and d extremities. Includes dental, trauma, sp ine, surgical and otther products. 4 Excludess goodwill impairme ent and other speciial items. 2 3
COMPARRABLE PUBLIC COMPANY AN NALYSIS
JNJ SYK SNN WMGI ZMH
MV ($mn) 167,820 25,020 10,700 630 12,580
E EV ($ $mn) 157 7,720 21 1,660 11 1,190 660 12 2,790
EV / Rev. 2.6x 3.0x 2.8x 1.3x 3.0x
P/ Tang. Book 6.8x 4.6x 8.6x 1.6x 5.3x
This FY P/E 13x 17x 18x 22x 14x
Next FY P/E 12x 15x 17x 19x 12x
MAJOR HOLDERS Insiders 1% | T. Rowee 3% | Edinburggh 2% | Pzena 2%
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE Z Zimmer has maarket-leading positions p in kneee and hip reco onstruction marrkets globally. Patented produucts, technologgical kknow-how, as well w as strong mindshare m amo ong patients, su urgeons, and p ayors worldwiide position thee company to ttake aadvantage from m continued ind dustry growth. Aging populattions, rising livving standards, and new produ ducts provide loong-term, aand largely non n-cyclical, dem mand drivers. Valuation V is attrractive at an ~88% trailing FCF F yield on a strrong balance sheet. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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ZZIMMER HOLDINGS – OUR ESTIMATE OF TH HE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANG GE Conse ervative
Base Case
Aggrressive
10x trailin ng adjusted EB BIT
1 2x trailing adjustted EBIT
14x trailing adjusted E EBIT
$4,,220
$4,220
$4 4,220
2010 adj. EBIT margin
29 9%
29%
2 29%
Trailing adjusted d EBIT
$1,,230
$1,230
$1 1,230
1 0x
12x
1 14x
$12 2,304
$14,765
$17,226
(20 08)
(208)
(2 208)
$12.1 billion
$14.6 billion
$17.0 0 billion
$61 pe er share
$74 per share e
$86 per share
8 8%
6%
5%
6 6%
5%
4%
8 8%
6%
5%
Implied EV-to-2 2010 revenue
2..9x
3.5x
4 4.1x
Implied EV-to-2 2010 gross profit
3..8x
4.6x
5 5.4x
Implied EV-to-2 2010 adj. EBITDA A
7..8x
9.4x
11.0x
Implied EV-to-2 2010 adj. EBITDA A minus capex
9..5x
11.4x
13.3x
($ in millions) Valuation metho odology 2010 revenue 1
Fair value multip ple Estimated enterrprise value Minus: Net debtt (12/31/2010) Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Zimmer
2
Implied trailing FCF F yield Implied FCF yie eld based on 200 06-10 average FC CF Implied earnings yield based on n 2011 adj. EPS guidance g midpoin nt
3
1
Adjusted to exclud de goodwill impairm ment, net curtailmen nt and settlement charges, c certain pro oduct-related claims, and other specia al items. Adjusted E EBIT margin h has averaged 31% during 2006-10 (re eported EBIT margin has averaged 27 7% during 2006-10)).For reference, J& &J's medical devices and diagnostics ssegment has a averaged EBIT marrgins of ~31% durin ng 2008-10, excluding special items. 2
Based on 197 million shares outstand ding.
3
o $4.60-4.80 in 2011 (up 6-11% y-y) based on constantt currency revenue growth of 2-4% y-yy. Excluding adjusttments Zimmer is guiding for adjusted EPS of primarily related to restructuring and integration costs), reported r EPS is expected at $4.25-4.4 45. Both EPS meassures include a benefit from planned $500 million (p o of share repurchase es in 2011. S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
ZZIMMER HOLDINGS – ESTIMA ATED 2009 GLOBAL MARKETT SIZE AND MAARKET SHARE 1 Glo obal Ma arket Size e ($bn)
Glo obal Market 2 Growth h (Y-Y)
Zimm mer Mark ket Sharre
Zimmer Market Position
6.4 6 5.8 5 1.0 1
5% 4% 15 5%
27% % 21% % 13% %
1 2 3
13.2
5%
24% %
1
DePuy (J&J), S Stryker, Biomet, Smith & Nephe ew, Wright Mediccal, Synthes, Japa n Medical, Mathyys, Aesculap
Dental
3.3 3
-5 5%
6% %
5
Nobel Biocare,, Straumann, Astra Tech De ental, Biomet.
Trauma
4.4 4
6%
5% %
5
Same as in recconstructive marrkets.
8.7 8
10 0%
3% %
6
Medtronic, DeP Puy (J&J), Synth hes, Stryker, Biome et, NuVasive.
Product Category Knees Hips Extremities Total Recons structive
Spine
3
Ma ain Competitors s
1
Source: Zimmer 2009 10-K (“estimates are not precise and are based on competitor c annual filings, Wall Street equity research an nd company estima ates”).
2
ct of changes in foreign currency exch hange rates on sale es growth. Excludes the effec
3
Includes related orrthobiologics.
S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
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ZZIMMER HOLDINGS – MARKET POSITION IN KNEES
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 10, 2011.
ZZIMMER HOLDINGS – MARKET POSITION IN HIPS
S Source: Company presentation p dated January 10, 2011.
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R Reduced or o Offsettinng Superinnvestor Hooldings BBroadridgee (BR) — Bra rave Warrioor , Centaaur , Gle lenview , Greenligght Lake Success, NY, 5166-472-5400
Financial: Misc c. Financial Serv vices, Member of o S&P MidCap 400 Trading Data
www w.broadridge.com
Consensus EPS Estimates
Price: $23.24 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $18.51 - $24.02 Market value:: $2.9 billion Enterprise value: $3.0 billion Shares out: 125.3 million
This quarter Next quarte er FYE 6/30/11
Latesst $0.19 9 0.97 7 1.35 5
Month Ago $0.27 1.05 1.57
Valuation # of Ests 5 5 5
P/E FY YE 6/30/10 P/E FY YE 6/30/11 P/E FY YE 6/29/12 P/E FY YE 6/29/13 EV/ LT TM revenue
FYE 6/29/12
1.64 4
1.81
5
EV/ LT TM EBIT
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 6/29/13
2.1 1
2.11
1
P / tan ngible book
Insider buys (last ( six months): 1
LT growth
10.0% %
10.0%
2
Insider sales (last six months)): 0 Institutional ownership: 87%
EPS Surprise 2/8/11
Actuall $0.08
Ownership O Data a
Estima te $0.13 3
14x 17x 14x 11x 1.4x 11x 38.4x
Greenblatt Critteria LTM E EBIT yield LTM p pre-tax ROC
9% 78%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
6/30/04 1,526 393 250 146 1.06 138
6/30/05 1,717 444 274 165 1.20 139 8 39 (31)
Fiscal Ye ears Ended 6/30/06 6/30/07 6/30/08 8 1,933 2,138 2,13 1 500 550 583 3 303 321 320 0 167 197 192 2 1.30 1.42 1.34 4 139 139 140 0 426 161 482 2 41 38 47 7 385 123 436 6 90 155 232 2 1,406 1,960 2,079 9 537 512 514 4 2,135 2,678 2,834 4 116 109 0 990 1,429 1,525 5 0 618 448 8 1,092 2,147 2,088 8 1,043 531 746 6 59% 66% % 58%
6/30/09 2,073 563 346 223 1.58 140 359 30 329 173 2,052 511 2,775 0 1,430 324 1,866 909 75%
6 6/30/10 2,209 593 342 190 1.62 136 494 53 441 413 992 556 1,794 0 486 324 987 807 97%
LTM ME 12/31//10 2,1 105 5 534 2 275 1 154 1.25 1 133 1 142 55 87 1 188 6 608 6 653 1,5 515 0 2 288 3 324 7 786 7 729 78 8%
FQE 12/31/09 530 130 69 34 0.37 136 393 11 383 147 1,980 514 2,696 0 1,420 324 1,849 847 n/m
FQE 12/31/10 442 86 17 10 0.08 125 53 9 43 188 608 653 1,515 0 288 324 786 729 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
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B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
B Broadridge pro ovides outsourccing to financiaal institutions, m mutual funds an nd corporate isssuers through two segments:: IInvestor Comm munication Solu utions mails pro oxy materials, pprocesses proxy y votes, and prrovides transaction reporting. C Customers are banks b and brok ker-dealers (88 8% of revenue in F FY10), mutual funds (8%) an nd corporate isssuers (4%). SSecurities Proccessing Solution ns provides baack-office serviices ffor equity and fixed f income trrading (80% an nd 15% of FY1 10 rrevenue, respecctively), includ ding trade execu ution, settlemeent, aand accounting g. Outsourcing of broker-dealer administratiive ffunctions accou unted for the reemaining 5% of o FY10 revenu ue.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
World d’s largest pro ocessor of inveestor-related comm munication ma aterials. In FY1 10, Broadridgee processsed 66% of U..S. shares relatted to their prox xy services and distribu uted over one billion investor comm munications in paper p or electro onic form. Sharees trade at a ~9 9% FCF yield d on average FY08--10 free cash flow. f While FC CF guidance off $130-190 million forr FY11 is down n from the $27 70+ million n FY08-10 aveerage, the decliine is likely based on tem mporary (“even nt-driven”) reveenue shortfalls, as well as higher capex x related to IT/o outsourcing deals. Recen nt decline in mutual m fund reevenue “should d be con nsidered a disa appointing on ne-time event,” ” based on managemen nt. The declinee is due to loweer “eventt-driven” fees related r to mutu ual fund proxiees. ~80% % of revenue is recurring as the t majority off comm munications is tiied to regular corporate c eventts and oth her regulatory--required distrib bution. Securitiies processsing revenue is i also largely recurring. r Richa ard Daly (57) has h been CEO O since the 200 07 spin-o off from ADP. Daly joined ADP A in 1989.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Reimb bursement rattes for distribu uting investorr comm munication ma aterials may deecline. While Broad dridge claims ellectronic distrib bution increasees profitss, this may not be sustainablee. Broadridge bills b publicc issuers on beh half of “nomineees” and remits paymeents to nomineees (after deduccting own fees)).* Finan ncial services consolidation c could c result in clientss moving moree operations in--house. Top fiv ve clientss comprised 25 5% of revenue in FY10. $136 million m of net debt d at 12/31/10 0 (excludes ~$2 200 million n of debt due to t Matrix purch hase in January y).
*
SEC rules require public companiess to reimburse nom minees for the cost of ddistributing investo or communicationss to owners of secu urities held in “streeet nname.” Self-regulatory organizationss (e.g. NYSE) set reimbursement r ratees.
1
FYE Junee 30 ∆ revenu e ∆ employyees Revenue ($bn) % of reveenue by segment: Investor ccommunications Securitiess processing Pre-tax m margin by segment: Investor ccommunications Securitiess processing Corporatee/other Total ppre-tax margin % of reveenue by type: Recurringg fees Distributioon revenue (mostly recurring) Event-drivven fees Revenue growth by type: Recurringg fees Distributioon revenue (mostly recurring) Event-drivven fees % of reveenue from U.S. Selected items as % of revennue: Gross proofit EBIT Net incom me Net cash from ops D&A Capex ∆ shares out (avg)
2008 3% 14% 2.1
2009 -3% 4% 2.1
2010 7% 7% 2.2
YTD2 12/31/10 -11%3 n/a 0.9
74% 25%
74% 27%
76% 24%
66% 3%
16% 24% -3% 15%
16% 24% -2% 17%
16% 19% -1% 15%
2% 14% -1% 4%
50% 38% 11%
54% 37% 10%
51% 35% 13%
59%4 32%4 8%4
5% -2% -2% 88%
5% -6% -9% 89%
1% 3% 35% 87%
14%4 -10%4 -40%4 n/a
27% 16% 9% 14% 2% 2% 1%
27% 17% 11% 13% 3% 1% 0%
27% 16% 10% 16% 3% 2% -3%
20% 5% 3% 3% 4% 2% -8%
Financialls reflect continuing g operations (exclude securities clearing business). Seasonallity is strongest in th he June quarter whe en most proxies are e processed. Due to lo ower event-driven fe ees/distribution revvenue from mutual fund proxies. 4 Based on n FY11 revenue guidance. FY11E recu urring fees split ~50//50 between the two se egments. ~80% of F FY11E distribution revenue is based o on “recurring” holder meetings an nd regular mutual fu und mailings. events succh as annual stockh Event-drive en fees relate to mu utual fund suppleme ents/pre-sale fulfillm ment (FY11E: ~50%), sp ecial corporate eve ents (~30%), and m mutual fund proxiess (~20%). 2 3
COMPARRABLE PUBLIC COMPANY AN NALYSIS
BK DST
31.70 50.80
Marke et Value e ($mn)) 39,310 0 2,350 0
BR
23.20
2,912 2
Price ($)
Price to Tangible Book 4.6x 5.9x
T This FY P/E 12x 12x
Next FY P/E 11x 12x
38.4x
17x
14x
F FY End Date D Dec-31 D Dec-31 D Dec-31
MAJOR HOLDERS CEO Daaly 1% | Other iinsiders 3% | B BlackRock 8% | Harris 7% Vanguarrd 4% | Brave W Warrior 3% | O Omega 3% | Greeenlight 2%
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE B Broadridge shaares many operating characterristics with its former parent A ADP, includinng recurring revvenue and susttainably hhigh returns on n capital. Recen nt revenue decllines related to lower “event- driven” mutuaal fund proxy vvolume mask thhe ppredictability of o the vast majo ority of the com mpany’s busineess. Assuming free cash flow w reverts back tto the average oof fiscal yyears 2008-10 (a ( reasonable assumption a in our o view), sharres are undervaalued trading aat a high single--digit implied F FCF yield.
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B BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL F – OUR O ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE ($ in millions) Valuation metho odology 2
Normalized reve enue 3 Normalized EBIT margin Normalized EBIT Fair value multip ple Estimated enterrprise value Minus: Net debtt (12/31/10) Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Broadrid dge
4
Implied trailing FCF F yield 5 Implied FCF yie eld based on FY1 11 FCF guidance e midpoint Implied FCF yie eld based on average FCF during g FY08-10 6 Implied dividend d yield Implied EV-to-trrailing revenue Implied EV-to-trrailing EBIT Implied EV-to-average EBIT durring FY08-10 7 Implied EV per employee ($mn)
Conservativ ve
B Base Case
Aggre essive
10x estimate d normalized EB BIT
12 2x estimated norrmalized EBIT
14x esttimated normalizzed EBIT
$2,200 15% $330 10.0x $3,300 (136) $3.2 billion $25 per sharre 7% 5% 9% 2% 1.6x 11.9x 9.3x $0.6
$2,200 15% $330 12.0x $3,960 (136) $ $3.8 billion $3 30 per share 6% 4% 7% 2% 1.9x 14.3x 11.2x $0.7
$2,200 15 5% $3 330 14.0x $4,620 (13 36) $4.5 b billion $35 per share 5% 4% 6% 2% 2.2x 16 6.7x 13 3.1x $0 0.9
1
Figures exclude th he impact of the Ma atrix Financial Soluttions acquisition in January 2011. The e company paid ~$ $200 million in cash h for Matrix by borro owing from its $ $500 million credit facility f (expires in March M 2012). 2 Average revenue in i FY06-10 is $2.1 billion (based on continuing ops). We e assume slightly h igher normalized re evenue due to the contribution of past acquisitions. 3 Average EBIT marrgin during FY08-10 is 16%. The com mpany's historic marrgins have been ve ery stable. While th ere may be some p pricing pressure in the future, we a assume that margin ns will be largely ma aintained through in ncreased efficiencies and the introducction of new produccts. 4 Based on 129 million shares outstand ding. 5 ce for free cash flow w of $130-190 millio on in FY11 (ended June 2011). Guida ance includes total capex of $55-65 m million, of which ~$4 45 million Based on guidanc re elates to investmen nt implementation costs c in connection n with the Penson outsourcing o service es agreement and the IBM information n technology servicces a agreement. FY08-10 average annual capex c is $43 millio on. 6 zing the dividend off $0.15 per share declared d for the Dec cember 2010 quartter. Based on annualiz 7 Based on 5,400 em mployees as of Jun ne 30, 2010. S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
B BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL F – MANAGEMENT M ’S FINANCIAL GUIDANCE
S Source: Company presentation p dated February 8, 2011.
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B BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL F – RECURRING R FEEE REVENUE AN ND CLOSED SALLES, FY05-FY11
S Source: Company presentation p dated February 8, 2011.
B BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL F – EVENT-DRIVEN FEE AND DISTTRIBUTION REV VENUE, FY05-FY11
S Source: Company presentation p dated February 8, 2011.
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CChina Mobiile (CHL) — Kleinheinzz Hong Kongg, 852--312-8888
Services: Com mmunications Se ervices Trading Data
www.chiinamobileltd.com
Consensus C EPS S Estimates
Price: $47.66 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $44.41 - $54.70 Market value:: $190.4 billion Enterprise value: $144.7 billio on Shares out: 3,995.6 3 million
Valuation n
This quarter Next quarterr FYE 12/31/10
Latesst $0.7 74 0.6 60 4.0 09
Month Ago $0.74 0.60 3.79
# of Ests 1 1 3
P/E FYE 12/31/09 P/E FYE 12/31/10 P/E FYE 12/31/11 P/E FYE 12/30/12 EV/ LTM revenue
FYE 12/31/11
4.3 33
4.33
3
EV/ LTM EBIT
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 12/30/12
3.7 71
3.71
1
P / ttangible book
Insider buys (last ( six months): 0
LT growth
n//a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months)): 0 Institutional ownership: 2%
EPS Surprise e 3/18/10
Ownership O Data
Actua l n/a
11x 12x 11x 13x 2.0x 6x 2.5x
Greenblatt Crriteria
Estim mate n/a a
LTM M EBIT yield LTM M pre-tax ROC
16% 79%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
12/31//03 28,2 217 23,9 991 9,0 000 5,9 994 1..52 3,9 934 12,9 972 6,5 564 6,4 408 8,5 547 10,5 534 5,2 213 46,6 605 1,9 996 11,8 852 2,9 943 16,4 455 0 30,150 40 0%
12/31/04 31,945 28,246 9,798 6,834 1.73 3,935 15,739 8,852 6,887 9,920 12,398 0 50,654 1,251 14,812 1,972 20,608 0 30,046 40%
Fiscal Ye ears Ended 12/31/05 12//31/06 12/31/0 07 36,557 44,521 4 54,21 14 33,746 41,301 4 50,60 00 11,080 13,802 18,76 62 8,055 9,920 13,13 37 2.03 2.47 3.2 23 3,948 3,979 4,00 01 19,975 22,650 2 25,57 71 10,014 11,680 14,94 46 9,961 10,970 10,62 25 23,274 2 28,59 94 16,134 18,766 26,010 2 31,48 89 0 5,701 5,66 66 58,482 75,021 7 85,56 61 10 465 1 10 16,675 21,324 2 23,91 19 1,508 1,958 0 22,501 26,642 2 29,19 95 0 0 0 35,981 48,379 4 56,36 65 44% 58% 78% %
12/31/08 62,454 58,677 21,595 17,081 4.20 4,009 29,368 18,328 11,040 33,101 36,424 5,641 99,856 10 27,838 1,504 33,123 0 66,733 77%
12/31/09 68,565 64,796 22,295 17,466 4.30 4,012 31,412 17,562 13,850 40,115 43,580 5,706 113,951 10 31,819 1,504 37,099 0 76,852 70%
LT TME 6/30/10 71,353 67,331 22,866 35,016 4.40 4,012 4,094 0 4,094 47,214 51,985 5,701 125,539 762 39,289 755 43,827 0 81,713 79%
FQE 6/30/08 29,643 27,721 10,539 8,272 2.03 4,008 (10,467) 0 (10,467) 31,274 35,586 5,653 94,531 10 27,434 1,516 32,726 0 61,805 n/m
FQE 6/30/10 34,854 32,960 11,131 8,742 2.15 4,012 (12,214) 0 (12,214) 47,214 51,985 5,701 125,539 762 39,289 755 43,827 0 81,713 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0 Feb 02
Feb 03
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Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
C China Mobile, incorporated in n Hong Kong, provides mobiile ccommunication ns services in mainland m Chinaa and Hong Ko ong.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
#1 pro ovider of mobile communications servicees in mainland China,, with 584 million customers* (~69% % share), ahead d of the two oth her licensed provid ders China Unicom and Chinaa Telecom. Sharees trade at an ~8% ~ trailing FCF F yield (4% % divideend yield) on a net cash bala ance sheet. FC CF has grown at a 10% CAGR since ‘0 05 despite capeex at 25+ +% of revenue. EV-to-trailing g EBITDA: ~4..0x. Net ca ash representss ~22% of receent market va alue based on an estimateed $43 billion of o net cash as of o 3 2010 (at thee recent RMB/$ $ exchange ratte). June 30, EBITD DA grew 6% y-y through September S 201 10 driven n by 8% revenu ue growth. Con ntinued strong custom mer growth, maainly in rural areas, is offsettiing declin ning revenue peer user (due to regulatory tariff pressu ure and lower usage u from ruraal customers). nd Upgra ading 2 -geneeration GSM networks n to TDT SCDM MA technology y, a “3G” stan ndard. “Thirdgeneraation” customeers, who use mo ore lucrative data services, totaled 21 million m at yeareend 2010. Entered Chinese mobile e-commerce market in n 2010, via purchase of o a 20% stake in SPD Bank for f $6 billlion. Initiatives include mobilee finance servicces.
INVESTMENT RISKS R & CONCEERNS
Vulneerable to negattive impact off regulatory interv vention, as evid denced by the industry i reform ms mandaated in 2008. Minority M shareh holders are additio onally at risk of o exclusion fro om value creatiion. Chineese regulatory reforms are making m China a Teleco om and China a Unicom morre viable rivalss by enccouraging “threee telecommun nications servicces provid ders of comparaable scale and standing.” ** Contrrolled by state-owned China a Mobile Comm munications Corporation C (C CMCC), which h owns an a indirect 74% % equity stake.. CMCC owns the “C China Mobile” ” trademark**** pectrum, whicch includes 40 MHz for GSM M and sp and 35 5 MHz for 3G (plus 50 MHz indoor coverag ge). Techn nology risk and d related requirrements for ongoin ng high networrk capex. China Mobile reliess on thee TD-SCDMA standard for itss 3G networks versuss rival WCDMA A/CDMA2000 0 technologies.
1
FYE Dece cember 31 2005 Δ custom mers 21% Δ minutess/customer 13% Δ ARPU -2% ∆ revenu e 26% Revenue (RMB, bn) 243 % of reveenue by type: Usage feees 64% Value-addd services fees2 21% Monthly ffees 10% Interconnnect fees/other 5% Selected items as % of revennue: EBIT 30% Net incom me 22% Net cash from ops 54% D&A 23% Capex 28% Custome rs, ending (mn) 247 of whichh corporate 27% Market shhare3 66% Avg minuutes/user/month 335 Monthly A ARPU (RMB) 90 Avg montthly churn 1.9% Dividendss/net income 39% Return onn tangible equity 25% Tangible equity to assets 61% ∆ shares out (avg) 0%
2006 22% 14% 0% 21% 294
20007 223% 19% --1% 222% 3357
2008 24% 8% -7% 15% 412
20009 14% % 0% % -7% % 10% % 4552
YTD 9/30/10 12% 6% -4% 8% 353
65% 24% 7% 4%
663% 226% 6% 5%
63% 28% 4% 5%
63% % 29% % 3% % 4% %
n/a n/a n/a n/a
31% 22% 51% 22% 26% 301 26% 68% 381 90 2.7% 48% 25% 61% 1%
335% 224% 448% 19% 228% 3369 229% 669% 4455 89 2..6% 446% 228% 662% 1%
35% 27% 48% 17% 30% 457 28% 72% 492 83 2.7% 43% 31% 64% 0%
33% % 25% % 47% % 18% % 26% % 5222 35% % 71% % 4994 777 3.3% % 43% % 26% % 65% % 0% %
32%4 25% 55%4 18%4 27%4 570 n/a 69% 520 72 n/a 43%5 24%6 65%4 0%4
Financialls are based on IFR RS (except 2005, w which is based on U U.S. GAAP). Includes SMS/non-SMS datta business as well as voice value-ad dded services. 3 China Mo obile customers/ma ainland China total mobile customers (period-end). 4 Estimate d based on 1H10 rreported results. 5 Per 2010 0 dividend payout g guidance. 6 Annu ualized. 2
COMPARRABLE PUBLIC COMPANY AN NALYSIS
VOD CHA CHU CHL
MV ($mn) 152,360 47,710 40,730 190,430
EV ($m mn) 204,,320 56,,880 50,,450 144,,730
EV / Rev. 2.8x 1.2x 2.0x 2.0x
P/ T Tang. B Book 5.7x 1.7x 1.3x 2.5x
This FY P/E 11x 19x 69x 12x
N Next FY P/E 10x 16x 37x 11x
MAJOR HOLDERS Non-CM MCC insiders < <1% | CMCC ((Chinese gov’t)) 74%
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends?
*
At yearennd 2010 (majorityy of customers are ppre-paid, i.e. withoout contract). Unlike iits rivals, China M Mobile offers only m mobile services (nno fixed-line). *** China M Mobile pays no traademark license feee to CMCC througgh 2012. **
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE C China Mobile is i one of the thrree licensed mobile m service providers p in maainland China. With shares trrading at an ~8% trailing F FCF yield, valu uation is cheap based on the overcapitalized o d balance sheett and prospectss for growing ccash generationn (in a sstrong currency y) for years to come. c Our main n concerns are regulatory riskk and the contrrolled companyy structure. Chhinese state inntervention app pears to be thee driving force behind markett share loss to ““favored” Chinna Telecom andd China Unicoom since 22008. Minority y holders are ad dditionally at th he mercy of staate-owned majoority owner CM MCC, who alsoo owns the Chiina Mobile bbrand and 3G spectrum. s As a result, we are not enticed to own the sharess, even at the sseemingly attraactive 4% dividdend yield. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
CCHINA MOBILEE – OUR ESTIM MATE OF THE EQ QUITY FAIR VA ALUE RANGE Conservativ ve
Base Case
Aggre essive
10x estimate ed normalized EB ITDA minus capex off RMB ~85 billion (~2 25% below trailing EB BITDA minus cape ex)
1 0x estimated norm malized EBITDA minu us capex of RMB B ~12 20 billion (~10% above e trailing EBITDA A m minus capex)
10x esstimated normalize ed EBITDA minus cap pex of RMB ~165 billiion (~45% above trailiing EBITDA minus capex)
RMB 550
RMB 600
RMB B 650
40%
45%
50 0%
RMB 220
RMB 270
RMB B 325
(138)
(150)
(16 63)
RMB 83
RMB 120
RMB B 163
10.0x
10.0x
10 0.0x
RMB 825
RMB 1,200
RMB 1,625
284
284
28 84
0
40
7 79
RMB 1,109 bi llion
RM MB 1,523 billion
RMB 1,988 billion
US$ 168 bill ion
US S$ 231 billion
US$ 301 billion
$41 per AD DS
$ $57 per ADS
$74 pe er ADS
9%
7%
5 5%
Implied dividend d yield
5%
3%
3 3%
Implied EV-to-trrailing revenue
1.7x
2.5x
3..4x
Implied EV-to-trrailing EBITDA
3.5x
5.0x
6..8x
7.4x
10.7x
14 4.5x
$214
$311
$4 422
Implied value off mainland Chine ese mobile industry (US$bn)
$184
$268
$3 363
Implied premium m/(discount) of th he equity fair valu ue 10 to the sale priice of Vodafone's s 3% stake
-18%
12%
47 7%
(RMB in billions s)
Valuation metho odology
Normalized reve enue
1
Normalized EBITDA margin Normalized EBITDA
2
3 4
Minus: Normaliz zed capex
Estimated norm malized EBITDA minus m capex Fair value multip ple Estimated enterrprise value Plus: Net cash (6/30/2010) ( 5
Plus: Value of e-commerce e oppo ortunity
Estimated fair value of the equ uity of China Mo obile
6
Implied trailing FCF F yield 7
Implied EV-to-trrailing EBITDA minus m capex 8
Implied EV per customer (US$)
9
1 Trailing revenue is s RMB 478 billion fo or the year ended September S 2010. Revenue R growth in the first nine month hs of 2010 was 8% % y-y, driven by a 12 2% increase n customers offset by a 4% decline in average revenue per p customer. in 2
EBITDA margin was 51% in the first half of 2010 and av veraged 52-53% du uring 2005-09. We assume normalize ed EBITDA margin will be lower than h historical m margin mainly due to t increased compe etition following the e regulatory reforms s in 2008. The refo orms, which are dessigned to encourag ge “three telecomm munications sservices providers of o comparable scale e and standing,” ha ave led to recent market m share gains b by China Unicom a and China Telecom m at the expense of China M Mobile. China Mobile had an estimated d ~68% market sha are of mobile subsc cribers in mainland d China at yearend 2010 (2009: 71%). China Mobile's sh hare of "3G" ssubscribers, howeve er, is likely significa antly lower at an es stimate ~45%. 3
1H10 annualized EBITDA E is RMB 23 33 billion (1H10 EBITDA increased 6% % y-y).
4
Based on 25% of revenue. r Capex as s a proportion of rev venue averaged 27 7-28% during 2005--09. 1H10 capex w was 27% of revenue e. While our assum mption of "n normalized" capex requirements at 25 5% of revenue may y be too high, China a Mobile's 2G/3G n network is likely to need significant bu uildout and upgrade e expenditure to o keep up with custtomer growth and make m it competitive e with the latest tec chnologies including g "LTE." Moreover,, as China Mobile d does not own the 3G spectrum a allocated to it (its pa arent CMCC owns it), and the existing g allocation of 35 MHz M may be limiting g, this could lead to o ongoing capex req quirements for years to come. 5 The company ente ered the Chinese mobile m e-commerce e market in 2010 by y purchasing a 20% % equity stake in SP PD Bank for $6 billiion. Targeted joint development in nitiatives are to incllude mobile phone payments and othe er mobile finance applications a across mainland China. 6
n Hong Kong). The Based on 4,063 million m diluted ADS outstanding o (1ADS=5 ordinary shares s, which are listed in e estimated renmin nbi market value is ttranslated into U U.S. dollars at the re ecent RMB/$ excha ange rate of RMB 6.60 6 per U.S. dollar. 7
Based on the estim mated dividend for 2010 per the comp pany announcemen nt of a dividend payyout ratio of 43% off 2010 net income (the payout ratio iss flat y-y).
8
Based on 584 million mobile custome ers as of yearend 2010. 2
9
Based on dividing our estimated ente erprise values for China C Mobile by the e company's estima ated 68% market sh China at yearend 20 010. hare in mainland C
10 0
Vodafone, which owned a 3.2% equ uity stake in China Mobile, M sold the en ntire stake to a conssortium of investme ent banks in September 2010.
S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
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CCHINA MOBILEE – CAPITAL EX XPENDITURES (RMB billions)
CHINA M MOBILE – OPERATING REVEN NUE DISTRIBU UTION
CCHINA MOBILEE – EBITDA, PR ROFIT FROM OP PERATIONS, P PROFIT ATTRIB BUTABLE TO SH HAREHOLDERS (RMB millions)
CHINA M MOBILE – VALUE-ADDED SER RVICES FEES
CCHINA MOBILEE – CASH FLOW W (RMB millions)
S Source for above ch harts: China Mobile e Limited annual report 2009.
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H Harvest Nat atural Resouurces (HNR)) — Pabraii Houston, TX, 281-8999-5700
Energy: Oil & Gas G Operations Trading Data
www.harvestnr.com
Consensus EP PS Estimates
Price: $12.84 (as of 2/18/11) 52-week rang ge: $4.95 - $14.20 Market value:: $435 million Enterprise value: $453 million n Shares out: 33.8 3 million
This quarterr Next quarter FYE 12/31/1 10
Lattest -$0 .01 0 .22 0 .45
Month Ago $0.05 0.30 0.80
Valuatio on # of Ests 2 2 1
P//E FYE 12/31/09 P//E FYE 12/31/10 P//E FYE 12/31/11 P//E FYE 12/30/12 EV V/ LTM revenue
n/m 29x 10x 11x 56.0x
FYE 12/31/1 11
1 .23
1.68
2
EV V/ LTM EBIT
n/m
Insider ownerrship: <1%
FYE 12/30/1 12
1 .17
n/a
1
P / tangible book
1.5x
Insider buys (last ( six months): 0
LT growth
n/a
n/a
n/a
Insider sales (last six months)): 1 Institutional ownership: 68%
EPS Surpris se 11/9/10 0
Ownership O Data a
Actu al $0.0 02
Greenblatt C Criteria
Esti mate $0 0.13
LT TM EBIT yield LT TM pre-tax ROC
-6% -35%
Op perating Perform mance and Finan ncial Position ($ millions, exce ept per share data) Revenue Gross profit Operating incom me Net income Diluted EPS Shares out (avg g) Cash from operrations Capex Free cash flow ments Cash & investm Total current as ssets Intangible assetts Total assets Short-term debtt Total current liabilities Long-term debt Total liabilities Preferred stock Common equity y EBIT/capital em mployed
12/31/03 106 1 0 34 27 0.74 0 35 39 61 (22) ( 139 1 183 1 0 374 3 6 46 97 175 1 0 200 2 18%
12/31/04 186 0 88 34 0.90 36 74 39 35 85 172 0 368 12 83 0 124 0 243 45%
Fiscal Years Y Ended 12/31/05 12 2/31/06 12/31//07 237 60 11 0 0 0 105 1 (2 20) 60 39 (63) 1.01 (1.68) 1 .58 37 37 37 115 (24) (2 21) 16 2 1 99 (26) (2 21) 163 148 1 121 240 200 1 154 0 0 0 401 468 4 417 6 38 9 62 82 43 0 0 67 103 187 1 101 0 0 0 298 281 3 317 55% 1% -278 8%
12/31/08 0 0 (54) (22) (0.63) 34 50 26 24 97 116 0 362 0 39 0 89 0 273 -1577%
12/31/09 0 0 (31) (3) (0.09) 33 (35) 28 (63) 32 51 0 349 0 17 0 74 0 275 -94%
L LTME 9//30/10 8 0 (26) 24 0.62 33 (24) 40 (64) 13 38 0 430 0 33 32 133 0 297 -35%
FQE E 9/30/09 9 0 0 (7)) 1 0.02 2 33 3 (4)) 11 1 (15)) 49 9 68 8 0 341 1 0 19 9 0 73 3 0 268 8 n/m m
FQE 9/30/10 2 1 (9) (5) (0.15) 34 (8) 11 (18) 13 38 0 430 0 33 32 133 0 297 n/m
Ten-Year Sto ock Price Perforrmance and Tra ading Volume Dy ynamics
$20 $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Feb 02
Feb 03
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Feb 04 0
Feb 05
Feb 06
Feb 07
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Feb b 08
Feb 09
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 142 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
B BUSINESS OVERVIEW
SELECTE D OPERATING DATA1
H Harvest is an oiil and gas exploration and pro oduction firm, w with its main prroducing asset located onshore in Venezuella.
FYE Dece cember 31 2006 20077 2008 Selected Petrodelta metrics, net to Harvest (32% %): Proved reeserves (million boe)) n/m2 43.66 43.2 % oil n/m 87% % 79% % deveeloped n/m 30% % 34% After-tax PV-10 ($mn) n/m 5233 111 Selected Petrodelta metrics ((100%): Crude oil sales (‘000 bbls) n/m 5,3744 5,505 Natural g as sales ('000 Mcf) n/m 13,4566 10,700 Total saales (‘000 boe) n/m 7,6177 7,288 Avg oil saales price ($/bbl) n/m 58.611 83.22 Avg gas ssales price ($/Mcf)3 n/m 1.544 1.54 Avg opexx ($/boe) n/m 4.200 10.90 Selected Harvest GAAP finanncials ($mn): Net cash4 132 1188 97 Revenue5 60 111 0 EBIT 1 -200 -54 Net incom me from affiliates 0 555 35 Net incom me by geography ($m mn): Venezuella -47 800 33 Indonesiaa 0 -00 -9 U.S. and other -16 -200 -46 Net incoome to Harvest -63 600 -21 Assets byy geography ($mn, pperiod-end): Venezuella 352 3077 232 Indonesiaa 0 0 2 U.S. and other 156 1277 152 Intersegm ment eliminations -40 -166 -23 Total asssets 468 4177 362 Tangible equity to assets 67% 68% % 76% ∆ shares out (avg) 1% -2% % -7%
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS H
Owns 32% of Veneezuela-based Petrodelta, P giv ving Harveest proved reserves of 50 miillion boe* as of o 9/30/10, up 9% from m yearend 2009 9. Oil representts ~85% of reserves, off which 25-30% % are developeed. Recen nt market valu ue approximattes NPV of only half of proved reserrves, based on a ~$570 millio on* x present valuee of ~24 million n boe of proveed pre-tax reservees at Petrodeltaa’s El Salto fielld, net to Harveest. The NPV N assumes a WTI oil price of $77 per barrrel. Retain ned Merrill Ly ynch in Septem mber 2010 to “explo ore strategic alternatives” a in ncluding a “salle of asseets or a sale or merger.” At th he time, Harvesst reported that it had received r “prelim minary expresssions of intereest” from third parties. Potential for signifiicant increasess in proved reserv ves given Petro odelta’s large resource basee. “2P” and a “3P” reserv ves**, net to Haarvest, are 103 million n boe (~65% at a El Salto) and d 227 million boe. Low Petrodelta P cash costs. Cash margin m is foreccast at $18-33/boe after a 33% royalty, ~$10/boe of caash costs and a various tax xes, based on WTI W oil prices of o $45-10 00. 2009 actuaal cash margin was w ~$25/boe. Positiv ve developments outside of Venezuela includ de ramp-up of production p in Utah, U U.S. (PV-10 of proved reserves was w $5 million at a yearend 200 09).
R & CONCEERNS INVESTMENT RISKS
Main producing assset is in Venezzuela, where govern nment entity PD DVSA owns 60% 6 of Petrodeelta. Harvest owns 80% of o HNR Financce, which ownss the oth her 40%. Harveest may not bee able to monetize the assset if the Venezzuelan governm ment is in the way. w Liquid dity constrain nts due to Petro odelta not payin ng regulaar dividends and Harvest need ding cash to fun nd the cap pex program outside of Veneezuela (Petrodeelta is inten nded to be selff-funding). Harrvest received a $10 million m dividend d from Petrodelta in October 2010, the first since a $75 million payout p in 2008 8. Octob ber 2010 finan ncing deal with h MSD Capita al added d $60 million of o expensive debt and 6 milliion of dilu utive warrants. As of Septemb ber 30, 2010, Harvest had $13 million of cash an nd $32 million of converrtible debt (con nversion price of $5.71/sharee). Explo oration capex may m prove vallue-destructiv ve. Mohn nish Pabrai solld most of its stake s in 4Q10.
20099
YTD 9/30/10
46.33 82% % 32% % 4000
50.4 83% 27% n/a
7,8355 4,3977 8,5688 57.622 1.544 8.466
6,142 1,780 6,439 68.77 1.54 5.03
322 0 -311 366
13 8 -21 53
400 -55 -388 -33
50 -5 -25 19
2499 6 1144 -200 3499 77% % -3% %
281 12 166 -29 430 73% 1%
1
Harvest’ss former subsidiaryy Petrodelta, which operates in Venezzuela, was converted into a “mixed comp pany” in 2007. As a result, state-owne ed PDVSA % of Petrodelta. Harrvest owns 80% of HNR Finance, whicch owns the owns 60% onomic stake (acco ounted for as an equ uity affiliate). other 40%,, giving it a 32% eco 2 Petrodeltta was formed in 20 007. 3 Reflects ccontractual price. 4 YTD exclludes $32 million o of convertible debt ((convertible at $5.7 71 per share). 5 2008/09 ffigures reflect deco onsolidation of Petrrodelta. YTD reven nue reflects ramp-up o of production from o oil and gas properties in the U.S.
MAJOR HOLDERS* CEO Eddmiston 2% | O Other insiders 55% | DFA 8% | KVO 7% Soros 6% % | Porter Orlinn 5% | Cumberrland 5% | Pabbrai 3% *
Excludinng shares issuable uupon conversion oof $32 million of ddebt (issued in Februarry 2010 at a conveersion price of $5.771/share) and exerrcise of 6.0 million waarrants (issued to M MSD Capital in October 2010). As oof October 2010, MSD D Capital owned sshares, convertiblee debt and warrantts in Harvest.
RATING S VALUE I ntrinsic value mateerially higher than m market value? DOWNSI DE PROTECTION N Low risk of perm manent loss? MANAGEEMENT Capable aand properly incentiivized? FINANCI AL STRENGTH SSolid balance sheet?? MOAT AAble to sustain high returns on investedd capital? EARNING GS MOMENTUM M Fundamentals im mproving? MACRO Poised to benefit frrom economic and ssecular trends? *
Based onn Ryder Scott Co. as of 9/30/2010; bboe = barrel of oil--equivalent. 2P = prooved+probable resserves; 3P = proved+probable+possiible reserves.
**
TTHE BOTTOM LIINE D Despite materiaal share price appreciation, a Harvest H remainss undervalued bbased on the inntrinsic value oof its key asset – a 32% sstake in Venezu uela-based oil producer p Petro odelta. Harvest’s share of Petrrodelta gives itt 50 million baarrels of low-coost, oileequivalent reserves on a proved basis, plus significant s reso ource potentiall. This may be attractive to ann acquirer, espeecially as H Harvest is exploring strategic alternatives, in ncluding a poteential sale. Maain risk remainss Venezuelan ggovernment coontrol of P Petrodelta, whiich has paid litttle dividends to o Harvest over the years. Thee less attractivee risk-reward ddue to the risingg share pprice may havee led respected value investorr Pabrai to sell most of his funnd’s stake duriing the fourth qquarter of 20100. © 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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H HARVEST NATU URAL RESOURCCES – OUR ESTIIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR V VALUE RANGEE ($ in millions)
Valuation metho odology
Value of Venez zuela-based Pettrodelta, net to Harvest: H
Conservative
Base Case
Ag ggressive
Conservative valuation of proved Petrodel ta reserves only
Valuation of 2P Petrode elta reserves pllus $35 million forr nonVenezuela oil/gas assetts
Valuation of 3P Pe etrodelta reservves plus $70 millio on for nonVenezzuela oil/gas assets
1
Value of proved d reserves: Proved reserv ves as of 9/30/10 0
50 million boe
50 million n boe
50 m million boe
Fair value “multiple”
$10.00 per boe e
$12.00 pe er boe
$14.00 per boe
$504 million
$605 million
$70 06 million
53 million boe
53 million n boe
53 m million boe
$0 per boe
$2.00 per boe
$4.0 00 per boe
$0
$105 million
$21 10 million
124 million boe e
124 millio on boe
124 million boe
$0 per boe
$0 per b boe
$1.0 00 per boe
$0
$0
$12 24 million
$504 million
$710 million
$1,0 040 million
$0
$35 million
$7 70 million
$504 million
$745 million
$1,110 million
$13 million
$13 million
$13 million
$0
$0
$0
Fair value of proved p reserves (A) Value of probab ble reserves: Probable rese erves as of 9/30//10 Fair value “multiple” Fair value of probable p reserve es (B) Value of possible reserves: Possible rese erves as of 9/30/1 10 Fair value “multiple” Fair value of possible p reserves (C) 2
Estimated ente erprise value of Petrodelta - net to Harvest (A A) + (B) + (C) Estimated enterrprise value of no on-Venezuela oil and gas assets
3
Estimated total enterprise value Plus: Net cash at a Harvest
4
Minus: Share off net debt at Petrrodelta
5
$520 million
$760 million
$1.12 billion
$13.10 per sharre
$16.70 perr share
$24.70 per share
Implied EV per boe of proved Pe etrodelta reserve es, net to Harves st
$10
$15 5
$22
Implied EV per boe of "3P" Petro odelta reserves, net to Harvest
$2
$3
$5
Estimated fair value of the equ uity of Harvest Natural Resourc ces
6
1
Our Petrodelta valuation does not atttempt to reflect Ven nezuela "country ris sk". The various "m multiples" of reserve es mainly reflect rissks around actual rrecoverability a as well as the lowerr price point of Venezuela oil relative to t WTI. As a result,, our valuation case es are based on th e assumption that Harvest is able to m monetize its P Petrodelta asset, no otwithstanding the erratic e (and low) ca ash dividends received from Petrodeltta since it was natio onalized in 2007. 2 As of yearend 200 09, the after-tax PV-10 value attributab ble to Harvest was ~$400 million for 1 1P reserves, ~$665 5 million for 2P rese erves, and $1.6 billion for 3P eserves. This was based on a WTI oil price of $62/bbl an nd Venezuela oil price of $57/bbl. Pre etax PV-10 value, a attributable to Harvvest, related to Petrrodelta's El re S Salto field was repo orted as ~$570 milliion as of Septembe er 30, 2010, up 80% % y-y. The y-y incre ease is a result of h higher oil prices as well as a ~30% inccrease in p proved reserves at El Salto. El Salto re epresents nearly 50 0% of Harvest’s pro oved reserves relatted to Petrodelta (9 95+% of El Salto prroved reserves are e u undeveloped). Our conservative c case valuation approxim mates the recent pre e-tax PV-10 value o of only ~50% of Pe etrodelta's proved rreserves net to Harrvest. 3 Harvest also has producing p and exploration assets in th he U.S. as well as exploration e assets in Indonesia, Westt Africa, China and Oman. Due to the relative nsignificance of the ese assets compare ed to its Petrodelta asset, we omit a more m detailed valua ation in our analysiss. Our base and ag ggressive valuations are based in o on 1x and 2x Harve est's capex reported d during 1Q-3Q of 2010. 2 4
Based on September 30, 2010. Figurre excludes $32 miillion of convertible debt (convertible a at $5.71 per share)) as related potentia al shares are includ ded in our sshare count. It also excludes a $10 million cash dividend, net to Harvest, received from Petrod delta in October 20 010 (we assume the e dividend has been spent on o ongoing cash burn through t yearend 20 010). In October 20 010, Harvest issued d a $60 million term m loan to an affiliate e of MSD Capital, L L.P. The loan, whicch mature in O October 2012, carrie es interest at an initial rate of 10%, wh hich increases to 15% in July 2011. H Harvest intends to u use the net proceed ds of $59.5 million for capex, w working capital need ds and general corrporate purposes. Harvest H had net cas sh from operations of negative $13 m million during January-September of 20 010 and spent $ $35 million on capex in the period. 5 Based on reported d Petrodelta IFRS financials f (as disclo osed in Harvest's 10Q), Petrodelta hass little or no interesst expense, leading g us to assume thatt it is debt d total assets of $1..0 billion and net eq quity of $471 million n as of September 30, 2010 (it only h as $33 million of no on-current liabilitiess). frree. Petrodelta had 6
Based on 39 millio on shares including g shares issuable upon conversion of convertible c debt isssued in February 2 2010. Additionally, tthe base and aggre essive cases nclude dilution relatted to 6 million of warrants w issued to MSD M Capital as part of the October 20 010 financing. in S Source: Company filings, The Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates. e
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H HARVEST NATU URAL RESOURCCES – MANAGEEMENT’S OPER RATIONAL UPDDATE, dated January 11, 20111 V Venezuela:
yment of Petrodelta dividends in the amounnt of $9.8 millioon, net to Harvvest’s 32% inteerest on Harvest received pay October 22, 2010;
mber 31, 2010, Petrodelta drillled and complleted 16 wells aand produced In the twelve monthss ended Decem ximately 8.6 million m barrels of o oil (MMBO)) for a daily avverage of approoximately 23,600 barrels per day, an approx increaase of 9% over the same perio od in 2009;
Capitaal expendituress were estimateed to be $97.0 million m in 20100;
Petrod delta’s current production p ratee is approximaately 28,000 baarrels of oil perr day (BOPD);
Production target forr 2011 is 36,00 00 BOPD with a first quarter average of 29,000 BOPD;
011 capital bud dget is approxiimately $224 million, m which iincludes provissions to drill 28 oil wells, twoo water The 20 injecto or wells, one gaas injector welll and constructtion costs for ppipeline and rellated facilities..
U United States:
o production from f the Antelo ope project in U Utah totaled appproximately 1193,100 barrelss of oil Harvest’s net share of m ended December D 31, 2 010. Net produuction to Harveest during the m month of equivaalent (BOE) for the twelve months Decem mber 2010 was 540 barrels off oil equivalentt per day (BOE EPD).
Four wells w of a six-w well Lower Greeen River/Uppeer Wasatch dellineation and ddevelopment drrilling program m have been successfully s driilled with two on production and two expeccted to be hydrraulically fractuured in Januaryy and Februaary, respectively. Drilling is in i progress on the fifth well. The remainingg well will be ddrilled and com mpleted during g the first quartter of 2011.
Five of o the seven weells related to th he second phasse of the Monuument Butte Fieeld Extension pproject have beeen drilled to totaal depth (TD) and a are produciing at a restrictted combined rrate of approxim mately 170 grooss BOPD andd 2.0 gross million n cubic feet peer day (MMCFD D) of gas. The sixth well is ccurrently drillinng, and the sevventh well of thhe second phase drilling prograam is expected to be drilled by b the end of Feebruary 2011.
IIndonesia:
W was spud on o January 6, 2011, 2 in the Buudong Block, W West Sulawesi.. On January 5, 2011, The Lariang LG-1 Well Harvest exercised itss first refusal riight to acquire an additional 10% equity in the Budong Bllock PSC.
G Gabon:
C has isssued purchase orders for long g lead items reequired for drilling. Also, othher related drilliing The Company contraacts are being teendered in prep paration to spu ud the exploratiion well in the second quarteer of 2011.
S Statements by CEO James Edmiston: E
“We are a pleased to announce a that Petrodelta P prod duction is at 288,000 BOPD, w which are levels of productionn not achiev ved since 2005. With the receent drilling succcess in the Tem mblador and Ell Salto fields, pproved and proobable (2P) reserves net to Harveest in Venezuela have increassed to 103.0 m million barrels oof oil equivalennt (MMBOE) aat Septem mber 30, 2010,, a 26% increasse over year-en nd 2009. The 22011 Petrodeltaa capital budgeet is approximaately $224 million n with a signifficant portion of o that total relaated to infrastruucture costs foor pipeline and related facilities to contin nue developing the Temblador and El Salto oil fields.”
“Our appraisal a and development d drrilling campaig gn on our Ante lope project inn Utah, continuues to provide encourraging results. We have drilleed four of the six s wells of thee Green River/W Wasatch appraaisal drilling prrogram. We ex xpect to have th hese wells com mpleted and fracctured by mid February of 20011. The remaiining two wells will be drilled d and completeed during the fiirst quarter of 2011. 2 We also expect to compplete our sevenn well Monumeent Butte Extenssion drilling prrogram, six weells of which arre operated by N Newfield Explloration, in Febbruary 2011.”
“We are a excited to announce comm mencement of drilling d operatiions on the muuch anticipated Lariang LG-1 explorration well in In ndonesia on Jaanuary 6, 2011. The second eexploration welll is expected too spud during the first quarteer of 2011. Finaally, with the $60.0 $ million crredit facility w which closed inn October of 20010, Harvest haas sufficiient liquidity to o fund our apprroved drilling programs p and ppursue the straategic alterativee process which was annou unced in Septem mber of 2010.””
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Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
SSnapshot of o 100 Superinvestoor Holdinggs IIn Alphabettical Order YTD
Markett
Enter.
Valuee ($mn)
Value ($mn)
Thi s FY Y
P//E (Est.) Next FY
Notabble Shareholders
Website
2,8688 3,2233 21,6544 2,3444 40,1233
3,711 5,200 26,045 2,688 49,456
nm m 144x 588x nm m 355x
11x 12x 49x nm 24x
Fairfaxx, Markel, Paulson Baupoost Akre, V Viking Icahn Paulsoon
www.abitibibow water.com www.invmed.ccom www.americanntower.com www.amylin.coom www.anadarkoo.com
Company / Ticker
Indusstry
AbitibiBowater / ABH A Alere / ALR American Tower / AMT Amylin Pharma / AMLN A Anadarko Petroleu um / APC
Papeer Products Bioteechnology & Drugs Comms Services Bioteechnology & Drugs Oil & Gas Operations
Price na 4% 5% 11% 6%
Anheuser-Busch / BUD Applied Materials / AMAT Arris Group / ARR RS Asbury Automotivve / ABG BP / BP
Beveerages (alcoholic) Semiiconductors Comms Equipment Retail (specialty) Oil & Gas - Integrated
-4% 17% 21% -1% 9%
87,4166 21,7577 1,6844 5999 149,8655
129,734 19,378 1,266 1,455 170,757
177x 133x 166x 133x 88x
14x 12x 14x 10x 7x
Markeel Appalooosa, Edinburgh Sagevview MSD Blue R Ridge, Greenlight
www.ab-inbevv.com www.appliedm materials.com www.arrisi.com m www.asburyauuto.com www.bp.com
Broadridge Financcial / BR Cardinal Health / CAH C CareFusion / CFN CBS / CBS Charter Comms / CHTR C
Businness Services Bioteechnology & Drugs Medical Equipment Broaddcasting & Cable Broaddcasting & Cable
6% 10% 9% 20% 19%
2,9122 14,7399 6,2555 15,6055 5,3244
3,049 16,061 6,154 21,126 17,843
177x 166x 177x 166x nm m
14x 14x 15x 12x 53x
Brave Warrior, Greenlightt Greennlight Greennlight, Third Point Anciennt Art, Childrens GoldeenTree
www.broadridgge.com www.cardinal.com www.carefusioon.com www.cbscorpooration.com www.charter.ccom
Chesapeake Energ gy / CHK China Mobile / CHL Cisco Systems / CSCO C Coca-Cola / KO Comcast / CMCSA A
Oil & Gas Operations Comms Services Computer Peripherals Beveerages (non-alcoh.) Broaddcasting & Cable
17% -4% -7% -2% 17%
19,8999 190,4300 104,4811 149,8877 70,5633
33,800 144,734 79,493 161,967 95,913
100x 122x 122x 177x 177x
11x 11x 11x 15x 15x
Icahn,, Southeastern Kleinhheinz Appalooosa, ESL, Pennantt BRK, Childrens, Markel Brave Warrior, Paulson
www.chk.com www.chinamoobileltd.com www.cisco.com m thecoca-colaccompany.com www.comcastt.com
CommScope / CTV V Copart / CPRT Corporate Executiive / EXBD DaVita / DVA Dean Foods / DF
Comms Equipment Retail (specialty) Businness Services Healtthcare Facilities Foodd Processing
1% 11% 10% 15% 17%
2,9911 3,4044 1,4177 7,7444 1,8866
3,668 3,143 1,304 11,170 5,861
188x 199x 255x 188x 177x
13x 16x 22x 15x 13x
Paulsoon, Tiger Global Force , Gates Bares , Hawkshaw Pine, Pennant, Vikinng Lone P Appalooosa
www.commscope.com www.copart.coom www.executiveeboard.com www.davita.coom www.deanfoodds.com
Electronic Arts / ERTS E Ensco / ESV Enstar Group / ES SGR Express Scripts / ESRX Exxon Mobil / XOM M
Softw ware Oil Well W Services Insurrance (misc.) Retail (drugs) Oil & Gas Operations
18% 0% -2% 5% 16%
6,4466 7,6188 1,0877 29,9911 426,0966
4,475 6,979 -2,128 31,961 432,131
299x 155x 99x 188x 122x
22x 14x 8x 15x 10x
Hawksshaw, Tiger Global Greennlight, Hound Akre Glenvview, Lone Pine BRK, Markel, Viking
www.ea.com enscointernational.com www.enstargrooup.com www.express--scripts.com www.exxonmoobil.com
Fiserv / FISV Flextronics / FLEX X Flowserve / FLS Fortune Brands / FO F Foster Wheeler / FWLT F
Computer Services Semiiconductors Misc.. Capital Goods Congglomerates Consstruction Services
8% 7% 9% 4% 14%
9,4477 6,3999 7,2777 9,5622 4,9111
12,240 7,032 7,530 12,978 4,066
144x na 199x 199x na
13x na 16x 16x na
Brave Warrior, Glenview Glenvview Breedden, Scout Markeel, Pershing Square Force , H Partners, Pennaant
www.fiserv.com www.flextroniccs.com www.flowservee.com www.fortunebrands.com www.fwc.com
Gap / GPS Gastar Exploration n / GST General Growth / GGP G General Motors / GM G H&R Block / HRB
Retail (apparel) Oil & Gas - Integrated Real Estate Operations Auto & Truck Makers Persoonal Services
4% 5% 2% -1% 22%
14,1611 2822 19,8966 54,7655 4,4366
12,507 299 36,194 36,853 4,636
122x na nm m 133x 100x
12x na 53x 9x 9x
ESL, G Gates BP Caapital Blue R Ridge, Pershing Sq. Appalooosa, Pershing Sq. Breedden, ESL, Viking
www.gapinc.com www.gastar.coom www.ggp.com m www.gm.com www.handrbloock.com
Hain Celestial / HA AIN Harvest Natural / HNR H Hewlett-Packard / HPQ International Papeer / IP ITT Corp. / ITT
Foodd Processing Oil & Gas Operations Computer Hardware Papeer Products Misc.. Capital Goods
14% 6% 16% 7% 15%
1,3288 4355 105,8355 12,6955 10,9877
1,542 453 117,205 19,293 11,320
244x 299x 99x 11 x 133x
21x 10x 9x 9x 12x
Icahn Pabraai Appalooosa, Brave Warriorr Appalooosa, Paulson Atlantic
www.hain-celeestial.com www.harvestnnr.com www.hp.com internationalpaaper.com www.itt.com
J.C. Penney / JCP Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Kraft Foods / KFT Lab Corp. of Amerrica / LH Lamar Advertising g / LAMR
Retail (dep't & discount) Major Drugs Foodd Processing Healtthcare Facilities Adveertising
15% -1% -2% 1% 4%
8,7599 167,8244 53,9933 9,0522 3,8300
10,192 157,723 80,236 11,009 6,264
244x 133x 144x 144x nm m
21x 12x 12x 13x nm
Force , Pershing Square BRK, Fairfax, Markel BRK, Fairfax, Pershing Sqq. Brave Warrior, Glenview Akre, Force, Scout
www.jcpenneyy.net www.jnj.com kraftfoodscom mpany.com www.labcorp.ccom www.lamar.coom
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YTD
Markett
Enter.
Valuee ($mn)
Value ($mn)
Thi s FY Y
P//E (Est.) Next FY
Notabble Shareholders
Website
1,0900 1255 2,4377 10,0333 20,2200
3,264 85 8,269 28,883 24,700
nm m 233x nm m 355x 177x
nm 16x nm 39x 23x
H Parttners, MHR Lane FFive Fairfaxx, Southeastern Blue R Ridge, Tiger Global South eastern, Third Pointt
www.leapwireless.com www.learningttree.com www.level3.coom www.lgi.com www.libertymeedia.com
Company / Ticker
Indusstry
Leap Wireless / LE EAP Learning Tree / LT TRE Level 3 Comms / LVLT L Liberty Global / LB BTYA Liberty Interactivee / LINTA
Comms Services Schoools Comms Services Broaddcasting & Cable Broaddcasting & Cable
Price 14% -3% 49% 19% 10%
Life Technologiess / LIFE Lions Gate / LGF Loral Space / LOR RL LyondellBasell / LYB L Massey Energy / MEE M
Bioteechnology & Drugs Motioon Pictures Electtronic Instruments Chem micals - Plastics Coal
-2% -6% 3% 10% 20%
10,1600 8377 1,6366 21,4677 6,5655
12,380 1,326 1,461 23,327 7,554
144x na na na 199x
13x na na na 13x
Glenvview, Sageview Icahn,, MHR MHR Greennlight, Third Point Third Point
www.lifetechnologies.com www.lionsgatee.com www.loral.com m www.lyondellbbasell.com www.masseyeenergyco.com
MasterCard / MA McDonald's / MCD D McKesson / MCK Microsoft / MSFT Molson Coors / TA AP
Finanncial Services Restaaurants Bioteechnology & Drugs Softw ware Beveerages (alcoholic)
12% -1% 15% -3% -9%
32,8177 80,4322 20,5044 227,3699 8,4700
28,619 89,373 21,353 195,788 9,214
155x 155x 166x 11 x 122x
13x 14x 14x 10x 11x
Brave Warrior, Tiger Globbal Eagle , Markel, Scout Glenvview, Viking Bares , Greenlight, Weitz Childrrens, West Coast
www.mastercaard.com www.mcdonalds.com www.mckessoon.com www.microsofft.com www.molsoncoors.com
MRV Comms / MR RVC Omnicare / OCR Owens Illinois / OII PDL BioPharma / PDLI Pfizer / PFE
Semiiconductors Retail (drugs) Packkaging Bioteechnology & Drugs Major Drugs
-2% 6% 3% -21% 10%
2766 3,1355 5,1822 6888 153,7111
274 4,992 8,820 926 174,695
222x 133x 11 x 55x 99x
13x 12x 9x 4x 8x
Spenccer Weitz Atlantic Baupoost Appalooosa, Paulson
www.mrv.com m www.omnicaree.com www.o-i.com www.pdl.com www.pfizer.coom
Plains Exploration n / PXP POSCO / PKX Praxair / PX Procter & Gamble / PG Radian Group / RD DN
Oil & Gas Operations Iron & Steel Chem micals Houssehold Products Propeerty & Casualty
21% 1% 4% 0% -9%
5,4677 38,2577 30,3599 179,9888 9811
8,259 37,299 35,877 210,467 -4,215
333x 99x 188x 166x nm m
23x 9x 16x 15x 9x
BP Caapital, Third Point Pabraai Eagle , Weitz BRK, Markel, Viking Harbinnger
www.pxp.com www.posco.coom www.praxair.ccom www.pg.com www.radiangrooupinc.com
Raytheon / RTN Ross Stores / ROS ST Schlumberger / SL LB Seagate Technolo ogy / STX Sears Holdings / SHLD S
Congglomerates Retail (apparel) Oil Well W Services Computer Storage Retail (dep't)
13% 14% 14% -9% 26%
19,0155 8,5533 129,3499 6,2155 10,2344
18,987 7,968 132,471 6,326 13,481
100x 166x 255x na 722x
9x 14x 19x na 82x
Atlantic Akre Eagle , Lone Pine, Markel ESL, G Glenview, Paulson ESL, FFairholme, Force
www.raytheonn.com www.rossstorees.com www.slb.com www.seagate..com www.searsholdings.com
Snap-on / SNA Spectrum Brands / SPB Sprint Nextel / S Stanley Black Deccker / SWK Steris / STE
Appliances & Tools Electtronic Instruments Comms Services Appliances & Tools Medical Equipment
8% -7% 6% 14% -4%
3,5722 1,4711 13,4422 12,6322 2,0866
4,170 3,120 28,160 14,322 2,104
155x 166x nm m 155x 166x
13x 13x nm 13x 15x
Gatess Harbinnger GoldeenTree, Greenlight Atlantic, Breeden Breedden
www.snapon.ccom www.spectrum mbrands.com www.sprint.coom www.stanleyw works.com www.steris.com
Teck Resources / TCK Texas Industries / TXI Theravance / THRX Time Warner Cable / TWC Tyco Internationall / TYC
Metal Mining Consstruction Materials Bioteechnology & Drugs Broaddcasting & Cable Congglomerates
-11% -8% -10% 9% 14%
32,5477 1,1722 1,6655 25,5744 22,4233
37,342 1,685 1,528 45,948 24,514
na nm m nm m 166x na
na nm nm 13x na
Lone P Pine, Pabrai South eastern Baupoost, Blue Ridge Edinb urgh, Viking Glenvview, Weitz
www.teck.com m www.txi.com www.theravannce.com www.timewarnnercable.com www.tyco.com m
Vail Resorts / MTN N Valeant Pharma / VRX V Vishay Precision / VPG Vulcan Materials / VMC W.R. Grace / GRA
Recreeational Activities Bioteechnology & Drugs Electtronic Instruments Consstruction Materials Chem micals
-5% 43% -11% 5% 12%
1,7744 11,9899 2244 6,0000 2,8799
2,269 14,627 154 8,670 1,918
477x na 21 x nm m 133x
38x na 14x >99x 13x
Paulsoon, Southeastern Chou,, Viking, Blue Ridge Gatess South eastern, Weitz Gatess, Hound, H Partnerss
www.vailresorrts.com www.valeant.ccom www.vishaypgg.com www.vulcanmaterials.com www.grace.coom
Wal-Mart / WMT Watson Pharma / WPI W Wendy's Arby's / WEN W Zimmer Holdings / ZMH ZipRealty / ZIPR
Retail (discount) Bioteechnology & Drugs Restaaurants Medical Equipment Real Estate Operations
3% 8% 5% 19% 13%
197,2633 7,3888 2,0388 12,5833 600
243,441 8,110 3,095 12,791 26
144x 144x 300x 144x nm m
12x 11x 22x 12x nm
BRK, Eagle, Markel Chou,, Viking South eastern Bares , Edinburgh, Gates Anciennt Art
walmartstoress.com www.watson.ccom www.wendysaarbys.com www.zimmer.ccom www.ziprealty.com
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Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBy Market Value V Recent R
YTD
Market
Enterr.
EV/
Price//
Price
Price
Value
Valuee
LTM
Tang .
This
P/E (Est.) Next
Selected Superinvestor
Sales
Bookk
FY
FY
Shareholders
Company / Ticker
Industtry
($)
($mn)
($mn))
Exxon Mobil / XOM M
Oil & Gas G
84.50
16%
426,096
432,1311
1.1x
2.9x
12x
10x
BRK, Markel, Vikinng
Microsoft / MSFT
Softwaare
27.06
-3%
227,369
195,7888
3.1x
6.5x
11x
10x
Bares, Greenlight,, Weitz
Wal-Mart / WMT
Retail (discount) (
55.38
3%
197,263
243,4411
.6x
4.0x
14x
12x
BRK, Eagle, Markel
China Mobile / CHLL
Comms Services
47.66
-4%
190,430
144,7344
2.1x
2.5x
12x
11x
Kleinheinz
Procter & Gamble / PG
Household Products
64.30
0%
179,988
210,4677
2.7x
nm
16x
15x
BRK, Markel, Vikinng
Johnson & Johnsonn / JNJ
Major Drugs D
61.11
-1%
167,824
157,7233
2.6x
6.8x
13x
12x
BRK, Fairfax, Marrkel
Pfizer / PFE
Major Drugs D
19.19
10%
153,711
174,6955
2.6x
nm
9x
8x
Appaloosa, Paulsoon
Coca-Cola / KO
Beveraages
64.55
-2%
149,887
161,9677
4.6x
36.6xx
17x
15x
BRK, Childrens, M Markel
BP / BP
Oil & Gas G
47.93
9%
149,865
170,7577
.6x
2.1x
8x
7x
Blue Ridge, Greennlight
Schlumberger / SLB B
Oil Weell Services
95.04
14%
129,349
132,4711
4.6x
10.7xx
25x
19x
Eagle, Lone Pine, Markel
Hewlett-Packard / HPQ H
Compuuter Hardware
48.67
16%
105,835
117,2055
.9x
nm
9x
9x
Appaloosa, Brave Warrior
Cisco Systems / CS SCO
Compuuter Peripherals
18.85
-7%
104,481
79,4933
2.0x
4.0x
12x
11x
Appaloosa, ESL, P Pennant
Anheuser-Busch / BUD B
Beveraages
54.90
-4%
87,416
129,7344
3.5x
nm
17x
14x
Markel
McDonald's / MCD
Restauurants
76.13
-1%
80,432
89,3733
3.7x
7.2x
15x
14x
Eagle, Markel, Scoout
Comcast / CMCSA
Broadccasting/Cable
25.67
17%
70,563
95,9133
2.5x
nm
17x
15x
Brave Warrior, Paulson
General Motors / GM
Autos & Trucks
36.51
-1%
54,765
36,8533
.4x
nm
13x
9x
Appaloosa, Pershing Sq.
Kraft Foods / KFT
Food Processing P
30.91
-2%
53,993
80,2366
1.6x
nm
14x
12x
BRK, Fairfax, Persshing Sq.
Anadarko Petroleum m / APC
Oil & Gas G
80.96
6%
40,123
49,4566
4.5x
2.6x
35x
24x
Paulson
POSCO / PKX
Iron & Steel
108.42
1%
38,257
37,2999
1.1x
2.2x
9x
9x
Pabrai
MasterCard / MA
Financcial Services
250.74
12%
32,817
28,6199
5.2x
8.2x
15x
13x
Teck Resources / TCK T
Metal Mining M
55.08
-11%
32,547
37,3422
4.8x
2.3x
na
na
Praxair / PX
Chemicals
99.09
4%
30,359
35,8777
3.5x
8.4x
18x
16x
Eagle, Weitz
Express Scripts / ESRX
Retail (drugs) (
56.77
5%
29,991
31,9611
.7x
nm
18x
15x
Glenview, Lone Piine
Time Warner Cablee / TWC
Broadccasting/Cable
71.89
9%
25,574
45,9488
2.4x
nm
16x
13x
Edinburgh, Viking
Tyco International / TYC
Congloomerates
47.33
14%
22,423
24,5144
1.4x
19.2xx
na
na
Glenview, Weitz
Applied Materials / AMAT
Semicoonductors
16.47
17%
21,757
19,3788
2.0x
3.7x
13x
12x
Appaloosa, Edinbuurgh
American Tower / AMT A
Comms Services
54.26
5%
21,654
26,0455
15.1x
nm
58x
49x
Akre, Viking
LyondellBasell / LY YB
Chemicals - Plastics
37.95
10%
21,467
23,3277
.6x
2.3x
na
na
McKesson / MCK
Biotechhnology
80.64
15%
20,504
21,3533
.2x
20.3xx
16x
14x
Glenview, Viking
Liberty Interactive / LINTA
Broadccasting/Cable
17.41
10%
20,220
24,7000
3.0x
nm
17x
23x
Southeastern, Third Point
Chesapeake Energgy / CHK
Oil & Gas G
30.43
17%
19,899
33,8000
4.4x
1.6x
10x
11x
Icahn, Southeasteern
General Growth / GGP G
Real Estate E
15.76
2%
19,896
36,1944
11.5x
54.9xx
nm
53x
Blue Ridge, Pershhing Sq.
Raytheon / RTN
Congloomerates
52.16
13%
19,015
18,9877
.8x
nm
10x
9x
CBS / CBS
Broadccasting/Cable
22.91
20%
15,605
21,1266
1.5x
nm
16x
12x
Ancient Art, Childrrens
Cardinal Health / CAH
Biotechhnology
42.14
10%
14,739
16,0611
.2x
12.9xx
16x
14x
Greenlight
Gap / GPS
Retail (apparel) (
23.05
4%
14,161
12,5077
.9x
3.4x
12x
12x
ESL, Gates
Sprint Nextel / S
Comms Services
4.50
6%
13,442
28,1600
.9x
nm
nm
nm
GoldenTree, Greeenlight
International Paperr / IP
Paper Products
29.02
7%
12,695
19,2933
.8x
2.8x
11x
9x
Appaloosa, Paulsoon
Stanley Black Deckker / SWK
Appliannces & Tools
76.09
14%
12,632
14,3222
1.7x
nm
15x
13x
Atlantic, Breeden
Zimmer Holdings / ZMH Z
Medicaal Equipment
63.73
19%
12,583
12,7911
3.0x
5.3x
14x
12x
Bares, Edinburgh, Gates
Valeant Pharma / VRX V
Biotechhnology
40.47
43%
11,989
14,6277
17.8x
nm
na
na
Chou, Viking, Bluee Ridge
ITT Corp. / ITT
Capital Goods
59.84
15%
10,987
11,3200
1.0x
nm
13x
12x
Atlantic
HLD Sears Holdings / SH
Retail (dep't) (
93.03
26%
10,234
13,4811
.3x
2.7x
72x
82x
ESL, Fairholme, FForce
Life Technologies / LIFE
Biotechhnology
54.41
-2%
10,160
12,3800
3.5x
2.3x
14x
13x
Glenview, Sagevieew
Liberty Global / LBT TYA
Broadccasting/Cable
42.19
19%
10,033
28,8833
2.6x
nm
35x
39x
Blue Ridge, Tiger Global
Fortune Brands / FO O
Congloomerates
62.67
4%
9,562
12,9788
1.8x
nm
19x
16x
Square Markel, Pershing S
Fiserv / FISV
Compuuter Services
63.52
8%
9,447
12,2400
3.0x
nm
14x
13x
Brave Warrior, Gleenview
Lab Corp. of Americca / LH
Healthcare Facilities
89.01
1%
9,052
11,0099
2.2x
nm
14x
13x
Brave Warrior, Gleenview
J.C. Penney / JCP
Retail (dep't) (
37.02
15%
8,759
10,1922
.6x
1.8x
24x
21x
Force, Pershing S Square
Ross Stores / ROST
Retail (apparel) (
71.82
14%
8,553
7,9688
1.1x
6.7x
16x
14x
Akre
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Brave Warrior, Tigger Global Lone Pine, Pabrai
Greenlight, Third P Point
Atlantic
February 28, 2011 – PPage 148 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
Company / Ticker
Industtry
Recent R
YTD
Market
Enterr.
EV/
Price//
Price
Price
Value
Valuee
LTM
Tang .
This
P/E (Est.) Next
Selected Superinvestor
($)
($mn)
($mn))
Sales
Bookk
FY
FY
Shareholders
Molson Coors / TAP P
Beveraages
45.60
-9%
8,470
9,2144
2.8x
5.1x
12x
11x
Coast Childrens, West C
DaVita / DVA
Healthcare Facilities
79.67
15%
7,744
11,1700
1.7x
nm
18x
15x
Lone Pine, Pennant, Viking
Ensco / ESV
Oil Weell Services
53.29
0%
7,618
6,9799
3.6x
1.4x
15x
14x
Greenlight, Houndd
W Watson Pharma / WPI
Biotechhnology
55.75
8%
7,388
8,1100
2.3x
60.3xx
14x
11x
Chou, Viking
Flowserve / FLS
Capital Goods
130.33
9%
7,277
7,5300
1.7x
8.5x
19x
16x
Breeden, Scout
M Massey Energy / MEE
Coal
64.28
20%
6,565
7,5544
2.5x
4.0x
19x
13x
Third Point
Electronic Arts / ER RTS
Softwaare
19.28
18%
6,446
4,4755
1.2x
5.9x
29x
22x
Hawkshaw, Tiger Global
Flextronics / FLEX
Semicoonductors
8.42
7%
6,399
7,0322
.3x
3.3x
na
na
CareFusion / CFN
Medicaal Equipment
28.04
9%
6,255
6,1544
1.6x
6.4x
17x
15x
Greenlight, Third P Point
Seagate Technologgy / STX
Compuuter Storage
13.72
-9%
6,215
6,3266
.6x
2.2x
na
na
ESL, Glenview, Paaulson
Vulcan Materials / VMC V
Constrruction
46.73
5%
6,000
8,6700
3.4x
34.0xx
nm
>99x
Plains Exploration / PXP
Oil & Gas G
39.02
21%
5,467
8,2599
7.0x
1.9x
33x
23x
BP Capital, Third P Point
Charter Comms / CHTR C
Broadccasting/Cable
46.44
19%
5,324
17,8433
2.6x
nm
nm
53x
GoldenTree
Owens Illinois / OI
Packagging
31.65
3%
5,182
8,8200
1.3x
nm
11x
9x
Atlantic
Foster Wheeler / FW WLT
Constrruction
39.48
14%
4,911
4,0666
.8x
6.5x
na
na
Force, H Partners, Pennant
H&R Block / HRB
Personnal Services
14.54
22%
4,436
4,6366
1.2x
nm
10x
9x
Breeden, ESL, Vikking
Lamar Advertising / LAMR
Advertising
41.54
4%
3,830
6,2644
5.9x
nm
nm
nm
Akre, Force, Scout
Snap-on / SNA
Appliannces & Tools
61.28
8%
3,572
4,1700
1.6x
9.0x
15x
13x
Gates
Copart / CPRT
Retail (specialty) (
41.41
11%
3,404
3,1433
4.1x
3.9x
19x
16x
Force, Gates
Alere / ALR
Biotechhnology
37.99
4%
3,223
5,2000
2.4x
nm
14x
12x
Baupost
Omnicare / OCR
Retail (drugs) (
26.96
6%
3,135
4,9922
.8x
nm
13x
12x
Weitz
CommScope / CTV V
Comms Equipment
31.48
1%
2,991
3,6688
1.2x
>99xx
18x
13x
Paulson, Tiger Gloobal
Broadridge Financiaal / BR
Busineess Services
23.24
6%
2,912
3,0499
1.4x
38.4xx
17x
14x
Brave Warrior, Greeenlight
W.R. Grace / GRA
Chemicals
39.40
12%
2,879
1,9188
.7x
nm
13x
13x
Gates, Hound, H P Partners
AbitibiBowater / AB BH
Paper Products
29.53
na
2,868
3,7111
.9x
nm
nm
11x
Fairfax, Markel, Paaulson
Level 3 Comms / LV VLT
Comms Services
1.46
49%
2,437
8,2699
2.3x
nm
nm
nm
Fairfax, Southeasttern
Amylin Pharma / AM MLN
Biotechhnology
16.28
11%
2,344
2,6888
4.0x
6.8x
nm
nm
Icahn
Steris / STE
Medicaal Equipment
35.16
-4%
2,086
2,1044
1.7x
4.8x
16x
15x
Breeden
W Wendy's Arby's / WEN
Restauurants
4.87
5%
2,038
3,0955
.9x
nm
30x
22x
Southeastern
Dean Foods / DF
Food Processing P
10.35
17%
1,886
5,8611
.5x
nm
17x
13x
Appaloosa
Vail Resorts / MTN
Recreaational
49.30
-5%
1,774
2,2699
2.6x
4.6x
47x
38x
Paulson, Southeasstern
Arris Group / ARRS S
Comms Equipment
13.63
21%
1,684
1,2666
1.2x
2.8x
16x
14x
Sageview
Theravance / THRX X
Biotechhnology
22.50
-10%
1,665
1,5288
63.1x
nm
nm
nm
Baupost, Blue Ridge
Loral Space / LORLL
Electroonics/Satellites
78.91
3%
1,636
1,4611
1.5x
3.3x
na
na
MHR
Spectrum Brands / SPB
Electroonics
28.88
-7%
1,471
3,1200
1.2x
nm
16x
13x
Harbinger
Corporate Executivve / EXBD
Busineess Services
41.31
10%
1,417
1,3044
3.0x
35.7xx
25x
22x
Bares, Hawkshaw w
Hain Celestial / HAIN
Food Processing P
30.88
14%
1,328
1,5422
1.7x
27.6xx
24x
21x
Icahn
Texas Industries / TXI T
Constrruction
42.11
-8%
1,172
1,6855
2.7x
1.6x
nm
nm
Southeastern
Leap Wireless / LEA AP
Comms Services
13.92
14%
1,090
3,2644
1.4x
nm
nm
nm
H Partners, MHR
Enstar Group / ESG GR
Insurannce (misc.)
83.18
-2%
1,087
-2,1288
nm
1.3x
9x
8x
Akre
Radian Group / RDN
Properrty & Casualty
7.38
-9%
981
-4,2155
nm
1.1x
nm
9x
Harbinger
Lions Gate / LGF
Motionn Pictures
6.12
-6%
837
1,3266
.8x
nm
na
na
Icahn, MHR
PDL BioPharma / PDLI P
Biotechhnology
4.93
-21%
688
9266
2.9x
nm
5x
4x
Baupost
Asbury Automotive / ABG
Retail (specialty) (
18.30
-1%
599
1,4555
.4x
2.1x
13x
10x
MSD
Harvest Natural / HNR
Oil & Gas G
12.84
6%
435
4533
>99x
1.5x
29x
10x
Pabrai
Gastar Exploration / GST
Oil & Gas G
4.52
5%
282
2999
9.1x
1.8x
na
na
MRV Comms / MRV VC
Semicoonductors
Vishay Precision / VPG V
Electroonics
Learning Tree / LTR RE ZipRealty / ZIPR
Glenview
Southeastern, Weeitz
BP Capital
1.76
-2%
276
2744
.6x
1.9x
22x
13x
Spencer
16.80
-11%
224
1544
.7x
1.4x
21x
14x
Gates
Schools
9.24
-3%
125
855
.7x
3.4x
23x
16x
Lane Five
Real Estate E
2.94
13%
60
266
.2x
1.8x
nm
nm
Ancient Art
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 149 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBy Stock Prrice Perform mance Recen nt Pricee Company / Ticker
(sorted d by price decline e since Decembe er 31, 2008) to
Price Perforrmance
Markket
Enter.
EV/
52-Week
Since Decem mber 31,
Vallue
Value
LLTM
This
Neext
Superinvestoor
P/E (Est.))
Selected
($$)
Low
High h
2010
2008
2006
($m mn)
($mn)
S Sales
FY
FFY
Shareholderss
Leap Wireless / LEA AP
13.922
-32%
37% %
14%
-48% %
-77%
1,0090
3,264
11.4x
nm
nnm
H Partners, M MHR
Dean Foods / DF
10.355
-31%
64% %
17%
-42% %
-76%
1,8886
5,861
.5x
17x
133x
Appaloosa
H&R Block / HRB
14.544
-30%
46% %
22%
-36% %
-37%
4,4436
4,636
11.2x
10x
99x
V Vulcan Materials / VMC
46.733
-24%
28% %
5%
-33% %
-48%
6,0000
8,670
33.4x
nm
>999x
PDL BioPharma / PDLI P
4.933
-2%
48% %
-21%
-20% %
-66%
6688
926
22.9x
5x
44x
Molson Coors / TAP P
45.600
-13%
12% %
-9%
-7% %
19%
8,4470
9,214
22.8x
12x
11x
Childrens, Weest Coast
China Mobile / CHLL
47.666
-7%
15% %
-4%
-6% %
10%
190,4430
144,734
22.1x
12x
11x
Kleinheinz
Omnicare / OCR
26.966
-29%
14% %
6%
-3% %
-30%
3,1135
4,992
.8x
13x
122x
Weitz
4.877
-21%
14% %
5%
-1% %
-77%
2,0038
3,095
.9x
30x
222x
Southeastern
Wal-Mart / WMT
55.388
-14%
5% %
3%
-1% %
20%
197,2263
243,441
.6x
14x
122x
BRK, Eagle, M Markel
Johnson & Johnsonn / JNJ
61.111
-7%
8% %
-1%
2% %
-7%
167,8824
157,723
22.6x
13x
122x
Raytheon / RTN
52.166
-18%
15% %
13%
2% %
-1%
19,0015
18,987
.8x
10x
99x
Atlantic
BP / BP
47.933
-44%
27% %
9%
3% %
-29%
149,8865
170,757
.6x
8x
77x
Blue Ridge, G Greenlight
Procter & Gamble / PG
64.300
-39%
4% %
0%
4% %
0%
179,9988
210,467
22.7x
16x
155x
BRK, Markel, Viking
Exxon Mobil / XOM M
84.500
-34%
1% %
16%
6% %
10%
426,0096
432,131
11.1x
12x
100x
BRK, Markel, Viking
Pfizer / PFE
19.199
-27%
1% %
10%
8% %
-26%
153,7711
174,695
22.6x
9x
88x
Learning Tree / LTR RE
9.244
-13%
79% %
-3%
8% %
4%
1125
85
.7x
23x
166x
Lane Five
ZipRealty / ZIPR
2.944
-22%
86% %
13%
11% %
-61%
60
26
.2x
nm
nnm
Ancient Art
Lions Gate / LGF
6.122
-15%
28% %
-6%
11% %
-43%
8837
1,326
.8x
na
nna
Time Warner Cablee / TWC
71.899
-37%
1% %
9%
12% %
na
25,5574
45,948
22.4x
16x
133x
Edinburgh, Viking
Kraft Foods / KFT
30.911
-11%
6% %
-2%
15% %
-13%
53,9993
80,236
11.6x
14x
122x
BRK, Fairfax, Pershing Sq.
Cisco Systems / CS SCO
18.855
-2%
47% %
-7%
16% %
-31%
104,4481
79,493
22.0x
12x
11x
Owens Illinois / OI
31.655
-21%
20% %
3%
16% %
72%
5,1182
8,820
11.3x
11x
99x
Electronic Arts / ER RTS
19.288
-27%
5% %
18%
20% %
-62%
6,4446
4,475
11.2x
29x
222x
Hawkshaw, Tiger Global
Texas Industries / TXI T
42.111
-35%
13% %
-8%
22% %
-34%
1,1172
1,685
22.7x
nm
nnm
Southeastern
McDonald's / MCD
76.133
-17%
6% %
-1%
22% %
72%
80,4432
89,373
33.7x
15x
144x
Eagle, Markel, Scout
ITT Corp. / ITT
59.844
-30%
7% %
15%
30% %
5%
10,9987
11,320
11.0x
13x
122x
Atlantic
Hewlett-Packard / HPQ H
48.677
-23%
12% %
16%
34% %
18%
105,8835
117,205
.9x
9x
99x
Appaloosa, Brrave Warrior
Lab Corp. of Americca / LH
89.011
-20%
4% %
1%
38% %
21%
9,0052
11,009
22.2x
14x
133x
Brave Warriorr, Glenview
Microsoft / MSFT
27.066
-16%
17% %
-3%
39% %
-9%
227,3369
195,788
33.1x
11x
100x
Bares, Greenllight, Weitz
GR Enstar Group / ESG
83.188
-35%
8% %
-2%
41% %
-13%
1,0087
-2,128
nm
9x
88x
Coca-Cola / KO
64.555
-23%
2% %
-2%
43% %
34%
149,8887
161,967
44.6x
17x
155x
POSCO / PKX
Wendy's Arby's / WEN W
Breeden, ESLL, Viking Southeastern,, Weitz Baupost
BRK, Fairfax, Markel
Appaloosa, Paaulson
Icahn, MHR
Appaloosa, ES SL, Pennant Atlantic
Akre BRK, Childrenns, Markel
108.422
-19%
16% %
1%
44% %
31%
38,2257
37,299
11.1x
9x
99x
Steris / STE
35.166
-20%
9% %
-4%
47% %
40%
2,0086
2,104
11.7x
16x
155x
Pabrai Breeden
Amylin Pharma / AM MLN
16.288
-42%
49% %
11%
50% %
-55%
2,3344
2,688
44.0x
nm
nnm
Icahn
Fortune Brands / FO O
62.677
-41%
1% %
4%
52% %
-27%
9,5562
12,978
11.8x
19x
166x
Markel, Pershhing Square
Comcast / CMCSA
25.677
-39%
0% %
17%
52% %
-9%
70,5563
95,913
22.5x
17x
155x
Brave Warriorr, Paulson
Copart / CPRT
41.411
-24%
1% %
11%
52% %
38%
3,4404
3,143
44.1x
19x
166x
Force, Gates
Snap-on / SNA
61.288
-36%
0% %
8%
56% %
29%
3,5572
4,170
11.6x
15x
133x
Gates
Zimmer Holdings / ZMH Z
63.733
-27%
2% %
19%
58% %
-19%
12,5583
12,791
33.0x
14x
122x
Bares, Edinbuurgh, Gates
DaVita / DVA
79.677
-29%
1% %
15%
61% %
40%
7,7744
11,170
11.7x
18x
155x
Lone Pine, Peennant, Viking
Hain Celestial / HAIN
30.888
-50%
1% %
14%
62% %
-1%
1,3328
1,542
11.7x
24x
21x
Icahn
Applied Materials / AMAT
16.477
-38%
1% %
17%
63% %
-11%
21,7757
19,378
22.0x
13x
122x
Appaloosa, Eddinburgh
Praxair / PX
99.099
-27%
0% %
4%
67% %
67%
30,3359
35,877
33.5x
18x
166x
Eagle, Weitz BP Capital, Thhird Point
Plains Exploration / PXP
39.022
-51%
0% %
21%
68% %
-18%
5,4467
8,259
77.0x
33x
233x
Foster Wheeler / FW WLT
39.488
-49%
1% %
14%
69% %
43%
4,9911
4,066
.8x
na
nna
Cardinal Health / CAH
42.144
-30%
2% %
10%
70% %
-9%
14,7739
16,061
.2x
16x
144x
Greenlight
Arris Group / ARRS S
13.633
-40%
6% %
21%
71% %
9%
1,6684
1,266
11.2x
16x
144x
Sageview
Gap / GPS
23.055
-28%
14% %
4%
72% %
18%
14,1161
12,507
.9x
12x
122x
ESL, Gates
Fiserv / FISV
63.522
-29%
1% %
8%
75% %
21%
9,4447
12,240
33.0x
14x
133x
Brave Warriorr, Glenview
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 150 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
Recen nt Pricee Company / Ticker MasterCard / MA
to
Price Perforrmance
Markket
Enter.
EV/
52-Week
Since Decem mber 31,
Vallue
Value
LLTM
This
Neext
Superinvestoor
S Sales
FY
FFY
Shareholderss Brave Warriorr, Tiger Global
($$)
Low
High h
2010
2008
2006
($m mn)
($mn)
P/E (Est.))
Selected
250.744
-24%
7% %
12%
75% %
155%
32,8817
28,619
55.2x
15x
133x
Theravance / THRX X
22.500
-55%
28% %
-10%
82% %
-27%
1,6665
1,528
663.1x
nm
nnm
Baupost, Bluee Ridge
American Tower / AMT A
54.266
-30%
5% %
5%
85% %
46%
21,6654
26,045
115.1x
58x
499x
Akre, Viking
Broadridge Financiaal / BR
23.244
-20%
3% %
6%
85% %
na
2,9912
3,049
11.4x
17x
144x
Brave Warriorr, Greenlight
Vail Resorts / MTN
49.300
-34%
10% %
-5%
85% %
10%
1,7774
2,269
22.6x
47x
388x
Paulson, Souttheastern
Corporate Executivve / EXBD
41.311
-45%
1% %
10%
87% %
-53%
1,4417
1,304
33.0x
25x
222x
Bares, Hawksshaw
Ensco / ESV
53.299
-37%
5% %
0%
88% %
6%
7,6618
6,979
33.6x
15x
144x
Greenlight, Hoound
J.C. Penney / JCP
37.022
-48%
1% %
15%
88% %
-52%
8,7759
10,192
.6x
24x
21x
Force, Pershinng Square
Chesapeake Energgy / CHK
30.433
-36%
6% %
17%
88% %
5%
19,8899
33,800
44.4x
10x
11x
7.388
-32%
153% %
-9%
101% %
-86%
9981
-4,215
nm
nm
99x
Alere / ALR
37.999
-33%
8% %
4%
101% %
-2%
3,2223
5,200
22.4x
14x
122x
Baupost
CommScope / CTV V
31.488
-42%
11% %
1%
103% %
3%
2,9991
3,668
11.2x
18x
133x
Paulson, Tigeer Global
Express Scripts / ESRX
56.777
-34%
4% %
5%
107% %
217%
29,9991
31,961
.7x
18x
155x
Glenview, Lonne Pine
McKesson / MCK
80.644
-28%
0% %
15%
108% %
59%
20,5504
21,353
.2x
16x
144x
Glenview, Viking
1.466
-43%
21% %
49%
109% %
-74%
2,4437
8,269
22.3x
nm
nnm
Fairfax, Southheastern
Watson Pharma / WPI W
55.755
-33%
3% %
8%
110% %
114%
7,3388
8,110
22.3x
14x
11x
Chou, Viking
Anadarko Petroleum m / APC
80.966
-57%
2% %
6%
110% %
86%
40,1123
49,456
44.5x
35x
244x
Tyco International / TYC
47.333
-28%
0% %
14%
119% %
2%
22,4423
24,514
11.4x
na
nna
Stanley Black Deckker / SWK
76.099
-36%
1% %
14%
123% %
51%
12,6632
14,322
11.7x
15x
133x
Atlantic, Breedden
Schlumberger / SLB B
95.044
-46%
0% %
14%
125% %
50%
129,3349
132,471
44.6x
25x
199x
Eagle, Lone P Pine, Markel
Radian Group / RDN
VLT Level 3 Comms / LV
MRV Comms / MRV VC
Icahn, Southeeastern Harbinger
Paulson Glenview, Weeitz
1.766
-54%
8% %
-2%
129% %
-50%
2276
274
.6x
22x
133x
Spencer
54.411
-24%
5% %
-2%
133% %
92%
10,1160
12,380
33.5x
14x
133x
Glenview, Saggeview
Sears Holdings / SH HLD
93.033
-36%
35% %
26%
139% %
-45%
10,2234
13,481
.3x
72x
822x
ESL, Fairholm me, Force
Ross Stores / ROST
71.822
-35%
0% %
14%
142% %
145%
8,5553
7,968
11.1x
16x
144x
Akre
4.500
-29%
18% %
6%
146% %
-76%
13,4442
28,160
.9x
nm
nnm
GoldenTree, G Greenlight
Life Technologies / LIFE
Sprint Nextel / S International Paperr / IP
29.022
-33%
5% %
7%
146% %
-15%
12,6695
19,293
.8x
11x
99x
130.333
-38%
3% %
9%
153% %
158%
7,2277
7,530
11.7x
19x
166x
Breeden, Scout
42.199
-46%
2% %
19%
165% %
45%
10,0033
28,883
22.6x
35x
399x
Blue Ridge, Tiger Global
4.522
-37%
28% %
5%
171% %
-58%
2282
299
99.1x
na
nna
CBS / CBS
22.911
-46%
1% %
20%
180% %
-27%
15,6605
21,126
11.5x
16x
122x
Ancient Art, C Childrens
Harvest Natural / HNR
12.844
-61%
11% %
6%
199% %
21%
4435
453
>>99x
29x
100x
Pabrai
Seagate Technologgy / STX
13.722
-28%
57% %
-9%
210% %
-48%
6,2215
6,326
.6x
na
nna
ESL, Glenview w, Paulson
8.422
-42%
1% %
7%
229% %
-27%
6,3399
7,032
.3x
na
nna
Glenview
Lamar Advertising / LAMR
41.544
-43%
1% %
4%
231% %
-36%
3,8830
6,264
55.9x
nm
nnm
Akre, Force, S Scout
Asbury Automotive / ABG
18.300
-47%
9% %
-1%
300% %
-22%
5599
1,455
.4x
13x
100x
Valeant Pharma / VRX V
40.477
-66%
4% %
43%
328% %
91%
11,9989
14,627
117.8x
na
nna
Massey Energy / MEE M
64.288
-60%
4% %
20%
366% %
177%
6,5565
7,554
22.5x
19x
133x
Loral Space / LORLL
78.911
-60%
8% %
3%
443% %
94%
1,6636
1,461
11.5x
na
nna
Liberty Interactive / LINTA
17.411
-42%
0% %
10%
458% %
-19%
20,2220
24,700
33.0x
17x
233x
W.R. Grace / GRA
39.400
-50%
1% %
12%
560% %
99%
2,8879
1,918
.7x
13x
133x
T Teck Resources / TCK
55.088
-48%
19% %
-11%
>999% %
46%
32,5547
37,342
44.8x
na
nna
General Growth / GGP G
15.766
-40%
2% %
2%
>999% %
-60%
19,8896
36,194
111.5x
nm
533x
Anheuser-Busch / BUD B
54.900
-21%
18% %
-4%
naa
na
87,4416
129,734
33.5x
17x
144x
General Motors / GM
36.511
-9%
8% %
-1%
naa
na
54,7765
36,853
.4x
13x
99x
Appaloosa, Peershing Sq.
LyondellBasell / LY YB
37.955
-61%
2% %
10%
naa
na
21,4467
23,327
.6x
na
nna
Greenlight, Thhird Point
CareFusion / CFN
28.044
-26%
7% %
9%
naa
na
6,2255
6,154
11.6x
17x
155x
Greenlight, Thhird Point
Charter Comms / CHTR C
46.444
-37%
2% %
19%
naa
na
5,3324
17,843
22.6x
nm
533x
GoldenTree
AbitibiBowater / AB BH
29.533
-100%
-98% %
na
naa
na
2,8868
3,711
.9x
nm
11x
Fairfax, Markeel, Paulson
Spectrum Brands / SPB
28.888
-24%
27% %
-7%
naa
na
1,4471
3,120
11.2x
16x
133x
Harbinger
Vishay Precision / VPG V
16.800
-42%
21% %
-11%
naa
na
2224
154
.7x
21x
144x
Gates
Flowserve / FLS Liberty Global / LBT TYA Gastar Exploration / GST
Flextronics / FLEX
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MSD Chou, Viking, Blue Ridge Third Point MHR Southeastern,, Third Point Gates, Houndd, H Partners Lone Pine, Paabrai Blue Ridge, P Pershing Sq. Markel
February 28, 2011 – PPage 151 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBy Estimateed Forwardd P/E Recen nt
(sorted by b P/E based on estimated EPS for next fiscal ye ear) Price/
Market
Enteer.
EV/
Pricce
This
Nexxt
Last
This
Next
Tang.
Value
Valuue
LTM
Div.
Superinvestor
($$)
FY
FY Y
FY
FY
FY
Book
($mn)
($mnn)
Sales
Yieldd
Shareholders
4.993
0.90
1.166
5x
5x
4x
nm
688
9226
2.9x
-
BP / BP
47.993
5.89
6.455
nm
8x
7x
2.1x
149,865
170,7557
.6x
4%
Enstar Group / ESG GR
83.18
9.50
11.000
8x
9x
8x
1.3x
1,087
-2,1228
nm
-
Pfizer / PFE
19.19
2.24
2.288
19x
9x
8x
nm
153,711
174,6995
2.6x
4%
Appaloosa, Pauulson
H Hewlett-Packard / HPQ
48.667
5.24
5.722
13x
9x
9x
nm
105,835
117,2005
.9x
1%
Appaloosa, Braave Warrior
Radian Group / RDN
7.338
(0.45)
0.855
nm
nm
9x
1.1x
981
-4,21 5
nm
0%
Harbinger
General Motors / GM
36.551
2.86
4.200
nm
13x
9x
nm
54,765
36,8553
.4x
-
108.442
11.44
12.455
10x
9x
9x
2.2x
38,257
37,2999
1.1x
2%
Pabrai
International Paperr / IP
29.002
2.76
3.222
20x
11x
9x
2.8x
12,695
19,2993
.8x
3%
Appaloosa, Pauulson
H&R Block / HRB
14.554
1.43
1.600
10x
10x
9x
nm
4,436
4,6336
1.2x
4%
Breeden, ESL, Viking
Owens Illinois / OI
31.665
2.86
3.388
20x
11x
9x
nm
5,182
8,8220
1.3x
-
Atlantic
Raytheon / RTN
52.16
4.98
5.577
11x
10x
9x
nm
19,015
18,9887
.8x
3%
Atlantic
Microsoft / MSFT
27.006
2.55
2.766
13x
11x
10x
6.5x
227,369
195,7888
3.1x
2%
Bares, Greenligght, Weitz
Asbury Automotive / ABG
18.330
1.45
1.855
25x
13x
10x
2.1x
599
1,4555
.4x
-
Exxon Mobil / XOM M
84.550
7.10
8.100
14x
12x
10x
2.9x
426,096
432,1331
1.1x
2%
Harvest Natural / HNR
12.884
0.45
1.233
nm
29x
10x
1.5x
435
4553
>99x
-
Pabrai
Cisco Systems / CS SCO
18.885
1.60
1.777
14x
12x
11x
4.0x
104,481
79,4993
2.0x
-
Appaloosa, ESLL, Pennant
Company / Ticker PDL BioPharma / PDLI P
POSCO / PKX
EPS (Est.)
P/E
P/E (Est.) (
Selected
Baupost Blue Ridge, Greeenlight Akre
Appaloosa, Perrshing Sq.
MSD BRK, Markel, V Viking
Watson Pharma / WPI W
55.775
4.12
5.166
38x
14x
11x
60.3x
7,388
8,11 0
2.3x
-
Chou, Viking
AbitibiBowater / AB BH
29.553
(8.49)
2.722
nm
nm
11x
nm
2,868
3,71 1
.9x
-
Fairfax, Markel,, Paulson
China Mobile / CHLL
47.666
4.09
4.333
11x
12x
11x
2.5x
190,430
144,7334
2.1x
4%
Kleinheinz
Molson Coors / TAP P
45.660
3.86
4.077
13x
12x
11x
5.1x
8,470
9,21 4
2.8x
2%
Childrens, West Coast
Chesapeake Energgy / CHK
30.443
2.92
2.655
nm
10x
11x
1.6x
19,899
33,8000
4.4x
1%
Icahn, Southeastern
ITT Corp. / ITT
59.884
4.77
5.155
17x
13x
12x
nm
10,987
11,3220
1.0x
2%
Atlantic
Gap / GPS
23.005
1.86
1.944
15x
12x
12x
3.4x
14,161
12,5007
.9x
2%
ESL, Gates
Johnson & Johnsonn / JNJ
61.11
4.84
5.133
13x
13x
12x
6.8x
167,824
157,7223
2.6x
4%
BRK, Fairfax, M Markel
Applied Materials / AMAT
16.447
1.27
1.366
24x
13x
12x
3.7x
21,757
19,3778
2.0x
2%
Appaloosa, Edinburgh
Omnicare / OCR
26.996
2.07
2.211
13x
13x
12x
nm
3,135
4,9992
.8x
0%
Weitz
CBS / CBS
22.991
1.47
1.877
22x
16x
12x
nm
15,605
21,1226
1.5x
1%
Ancient Art, Childrens
Kraft Foods / KFT
30.991
2.25
2.511
21x
14x
12x
nm
53,993
80,2336
1.6x
4%
BRK, Fairfax, P Pershing
Zimmer Holdings / ZMH Z
63.773
4.69
5.155
21x
14x
12x
5.3x
12,583
12,7991
3.0x
-
Wal-Mart / WMT
55.338
4.05
4.444
15x
14x
12x
4.0x
197,263
243,4441
.6x
2%
Alere / ALR
37.999
2.72
3.044
nm
14x
12x
nm
3,223
5,2000
2.4x
-
Baupost
Lab Corp. of Americca / LH
89.001
6.31
7.111
17x
14x
13x
nm
9,052
11,0009
2.2x
-
Brave Warrior, Glenview
1.776
0.08
0.144
>99x
22x
13x
1.9x
276
2774
.6x
-
Spencer
Life Technologies / LIFE
54.441
3.88
4.322
27x
14x
13x
2.3x
10,160
12,3880
3.5x
-
Glenview, Sageeview
Stanley Black Deckker / SWK
76.009
4.94
6.033
58x
15x
13x
nm
12,632
14,3222
1.7x
2%
Fiserv / FISV
63.552
4.49
5.033
19x
14x
13x
nm
9,447
12,2440
3.0x
-
Massey Energy / MEE M
64.228
3.40
5.088
nm
19x
13x
4.0x
6,565
7,5554
2.5x
0%
Third Point
Spectrum Brands / SPB
28.888
1.78
2.288
nm
16x
13x
nm
1,471
3,1220
1.2x
-
Harbinger
Snap-on / SNA
61.228
3.96
4.788
19x
15x
13x
9.0x
3,572
4,1770
1.6x
2%
Gates
MasterCard / MA
250.774
16.66
19.522
18x
15x
13x
8.2x
32,817
28,61 9
5.2x
0%
Brave Warrior, TTiger Gl.
Dean Foods / DF
10.335
0.61
0.800
22x
17x
13x
nm
1,886
5,8661
.5x
-
Time Warner Cablee / TWC
71.889
4.46
5.488
20x
16x
13x
nm
25,574
45,9448
2.4x
3%
W.R. Grace / GRA
39.440
2.97
3.000
14x
13x
13x
nm
2,879
1,91 8
.7x
-
Gates, Hound, H Partners
CommScope / CTV V
31.448
1.79
2.366
37x
18x
13x
>99x
2,991
3,6668
1.2x
-
Paulson, Tiger Global
Arris Group / ARRS S
13.663
0.86
1.000
27x
16x
14x
2.8x
1,684
1,2666
1.2x
-
Sageview
Vishay Precision / VPG V
16.880
0.79
1.222
20x
21x
14x
1.4x
224
1554
.7x
-
Gates
McDonald's / MCD
76.13
5.02
5.500
17x
15x
14x
7.2x
80,432
89,3773
3.7x
3%
Eagle, Markel, S Scout
Ensco / ESV
53.229
3.54
3.788
10x
15x
14x
1.4x
7,618
6,9779
3.6x
3%
Greenlight, Houund
Cardinal Health / CAH
42.14
2.60
2.988
26x
16x
14x
12.9x
14,739
16,0661
.2x
2%
Greenlight
MRV Comms / MRV VC
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Appaloosa Edinburgh, Viking
February 28, 2011 – PPage 152 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
Recen nt
Price/
Market
Enteer.
EV/
Pricce
This
Nexxt
Last
This
Next
Tang.
Value
Valuue
LTM
Div.
Superinvestor
($$)
FY
FY Y
FY
FY
FY
Book
($mn)
($mnn)
Sales
Yieldd
Shareholders
Ross Stores / ROST
71.882
4.62
5.077
20x
16x
14x
6.7x
8,553
7,9668
1.1x
1%
Akre
Broadridge Financiaal / BR
23.224
1.35
1.644
14x
17x
14x
38.4x
2,912
3,0449
1.4x
3%
Brave Warrior, Greenlight
Anheuser-Busch / BUD B
54.990
3.17
3.822
19x
17x
14x
nm
87,416
129,7334
3.5x
1%
Markel
McKesson / MCK
80.664
4.94
5.600
17x
16x
14x
20.3x
20,504
21,3553
.2x
1%
Glenview, Vikinng
Steris / STE
35.16
2.20
2.411
16x
16x
15x
4.8x
2,086
2,1004
1.7x
2%
Breeden
Express Scripts / ESRX
56.777
3.22
3.899
26x
18x
15x
nm
29,991
31,9661
.7x
-
Procter & Gamble / PG
64.330
3.98
4.377
18x
16x
15x
nm
179,988
210,4667
2.7x
3%
DaVita / DVA
79.667
4.37
5.344
20x
18x
15x
nm
7,744
11,1770
1.7x
-
Comcast / CMCSA
25.667
1.47
1.722
20x
17x
15x
nm
70,563
95,91 3
2.5x
2%
BRK, Markel, V Viking Lone Pine, Pennnant, Viking Brave Warrior, Paulson
CareFusion / CFN
28.004
1.62
1.877
36x
17x
15x
6.4x
6,255
6,1554
1.6x
-
Greenlight, Thirrd Point
Coca-Cola / KO
64.555
3.88
4.277
13x
17x
15x
36.6x
149,887
161,9667
4.6x
3%
BRK, Childrenss, Markel
Copart / CPRT
41.441
2.19
2.611
23x
19x
16x
3.9x
3,404
3,1443
4.1x
-
Force, Gates
9.224
0.40
0.577
29x
23x
16x
3.4x
125
885
.7x
-
Lane Five
Praxair / PX
99.009
5.39
6.111
26x
18x
16x
8.4x
30,359
35,8777
3.5x
2%
Eagle, Weitz
Fortune Brands / FO O
62.667
3.24
3.822
20x
19x
16x
nm
9,562
12,9778
1.8x
1%
Markel, Pershinng Square
130.333
6.89
7.922
17x
19x
16x
8.5x
7,277
7,5330
1.7x
1%
Breeden, Scoutt
Schlumberger / SLB B
95.004
3.87
4.988
28x
25x
19x
10.7x
129,349
132,4771
4.6x
1%
Eagle, Lone Pinne, Markel
J.C. Penney / JCP
37.002
1.56
1.799
35x
24x
21x
1.8x
8,759
10,1992
.6x
2%
Force, Pershingg Square
Hain Celestial / HAIN
30.888
1.29
1.488
45x
24x
21x
27.6x
1,328
1,5442
1.7x
-
Corporate Executivve / EXBD
41.331
1.63
1.900
35x
25x
22x
35.7x
1,417
1,3004
3.0x
1%
Bares, Hawkshaw
Wendy's Arby's / WEN W
4.887
0.16
0.222
>99x
30x
22x
nm
2,038
3,0995
.9x
2%
Southeastern
Electronic Arts / ER RTS
19.228
0.67
0.866
nm
29x
22x
5.9x
6,446
4,4775
1.2x
-
Hawkshaw, Tiger Global
Liberty Interactive / LINTA
17.441
1.02
0.755
40x
17x
23x
nm
20,220
24,7000
3.0x
-
Southeastern, TThird Point
Plains Exploration / PXP
39.002
1.17
1.677
36x
33x
23x
1.9x
5,467
8,2559
7.0x
-
BP Capital, Thirrd Point
Anadarko Petroleum m / APC
80.996
2.30
3.344
53x
35x
24x
2.6x
40,123
49,4556
4.5x
0%
Vail Resorts / MTN
49.330
1.06
1.311
59x
47x
38x
4.6x
1,774
2,2669
2.6x
-
Paulson, Southeastern
Liberty Global / LBT TYA
42.19
1.21
1.088
nm
35x
39x
nm
10,033
28,8883
2.6x
-
Blue Ridge, Tigger Global
American Tower / AMT A
54.226
0.94
1.111
92x
58x
49x
nm
21,654
26,0445
15.1x
-
Akre, Viking
General Growth / GGP G
15.776
(1.67)
0.300
nm
nm
53x
54.9x
19,896
36,1994
11.5x
1%
Charter Comms / CHTR C
46.444
(1.23)
0.877
0x
nm
53x
nm
5,324
17,8443
2.6x
-
GoldenTree
Sears Holdings / SH HLD
93.003
1.30
1.133
47x
72x
82x
2.7x
10,234
13,4881
.3x
-
ESL, Fairholmee, Force
Vulcan Materials / VMC V
46.773
(0.36)
0.211
nm
nm
>99x
34.0x
6,000
8,6770
3.4x
2%
ZipRealty / ZIPR
2.994
(0.85)
(0.277)
nm
nm
nm
1.8x
60
226
.2x
-
Ancient Art
Flextronics / FLEX
8.442
na
naa
>99x
na
na
3.3x
6,399
7,0332
.3x
-
Glenview
Seagate Technologgy / STX
13.772
na
naa
4x
na
na
2.2x
6,215
6,3226
.6x
-
ESL, Glenview,, Paulson
LyondellBasell / LY YB
37.995
na
naa
2x
na
na
2.3x
21,467
23,3227
.6x
-
Greenlight, Thirrd Point
Foster Wheeler / FW WLT
39.448
na
naa
14x
na
na
6.5x
4,911
4,0666
.8x
-
Force, Pennantt
Lions Gate / LGF
6.12
na
naa
nm
na
na
nm
837
1,3226
.8x
-
Icahn, MHR
Sprint Nextel / S
4.550
(0.79)
(0.599)
nm
nm
nm
nm
13,442
28,1660
.9x
-
GoldenTree, Grreenlight
13.992
(2.98)
(1.888)
nm
nm
nm
nm
1,090
3,2664
1.4x
-
H Partners, MH HR
Tyco International / TYC
47.333
na
naa
20x
na
na
19.2x
22,423
24,51 4
1.4x
2%
Glenview, Weitzz
Loral Space / LORLL
78.991
na
naa
10x
na
na
3.3x
1,636
1,4661
1.5x
-
MHR
Level 3 Comms / LV VLT
1.446
(0.38)
(0.322)
nm
nm
nm
nm
2,437
8,2669
2.3x
-
Fairfax, Southeastern
Texas Industries / TXI T
42.11
(1.47)
(0.566)
nm
nm
nm
1.6x
1,172
1,6885
2.7x
1%
Amylin Pharma / AM MLN
16.228
(0.89)
(0.888)
nm
nm
nm
6.8x
2,344
2,6888
4.0x
-
Teck Resources / TCK T
55.008
na
naa
16x
na
na
2.3x
32,547
37,3442
4.8x
1%
Lone Pine, Pabbrai
Lamar Advertising / LAMR
41.554
(0.42)
(0.022)
nm
nm
nm
nm
3,830
6,2664
5.9x
-
Akre, Force, Sccout
Gastar Exploration / GST
4.552
na
naa
4x
na
na
1.8x
282
2999
9.1x
-
BP Capital
Valeant Pharma / VRX V
40.447
na
naa
36x
na
na
nm
11,989
14,6227
17.8x
-
Chou, Viking, B Blue Ridge
Theravance / THRX X
22.550
(1.23)
(1.333)
nm
nm
nm
nm
1,665
1,5228
63.1x
-
Baupost, Blue R Ridge
Company / Ticker
Learning Tree / LTR RE
Flowserve / FLS
Leap Wireless / LEA AP
EPS (Est.)
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P/E (Est.) (
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Glenview, Lonee Pine
Icahn
Paulson
Blue Ridge, Perrshing Sq.
Southeastern, W Weitz
Southeastern Icahn
February 28, 2011 – PPage 153 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
BBy Averagee Annual RO OE (past sevven years) 7-Yr
GAAP G Return on Equity (%)
Avg Company / Ticker
P/E
… Years Ago 2
3
4
5
6
7
EV/
Selected
Last
Thhis
P P/E (Est.) Next
LTM
Superinvestorr
FY
FFY
FY
Saless
Shareholders
ROE
LTM
1
LyondellBasell / LY YB
349
127
769
38
241
--
--
--
--
2x
nna
na
.6x
Greenlight, Thirrd Point
Leap Wireless / LEA AP
56
-45
-15
-9
-5
-2
2
317
100
nm
nnm
nm
1.4x
H Partners, MH HR
Corporate Executivve / EXBD
56
57
61
125 1
99
42
23
21
19
35x
255x
22x
3.0x
Bares, Hawkshaw
Charter Comms / CHTR C
54
736
-265
27
22
25
21
190
361
0x
nnm
53x
2.6x
GoldenTree
Express Scripts / ESRX
44
34
33
36
88
62
37
30
23
26x
188x
15x
.7x
Glenview, Lonee Pine
Microsoft / MSFT
33
44
44
38
53
40
29
20
12
13x
111x
10x
3.1x
Bares, Greenligght, Weitz
Exxon Mobil / XOM M
32
24
27
16
38
36
37
38
31
14x
122x
10x
1.1x
BRK, Markel, V Viking
Coca-Cola / KO
32
43
42
30
28
31
31
30
32
13x
177x
15x
4.6x
BRK, Childrenss, Markel
Johnson & Johnsonn / JNJ
31
25
29
29
31
27
31
34
33
13x
133x
12x
2.6x
BRK, Fairfax, M Markel
Ross Stores / ROST
30
44
41
31
28
28
25
22
33
20x
166x
14x
1.1x
Akre
Schlumberger / SLB B
29
23
17
17
34
41
41
32
20
28x
255x
19x
4.6x
Eagle, Lone Pinne, Markel
DaVita / DVA
28
18
17
19
20
26
28
33
54
20x
188x
15x
1.7x
Lone Pine, Pennnant, Viking
Broadridge Financiaal / BR
27
20
22
27
30
25
32
--
--
14x
177x
14x
1.4x
Brave Warrior, Greenlight
Foster Wheeler / FW WLT
26
28
57
108 1
124
-189
25
41
19
14x
nna
na
.8x
Force, H Partneers, Pennant
MasterCard / MA
26
41
42
54
-10
40
3
25
29
18x
155x
13x
5.2x
Brave Warrior, Tiger Global
Procter & Gamble / PG
25
18
21
20
18
16
22
42
40
18x
166x
15x
2.7x
BRK, Markel, V Viking
McDonald's / MCD
25
36
36
32
28
16
24
20
21
17x
155x
14x
3.7x
Eagle, Markel, S Scout
China Mobile / CHLL
24
47
24
28
25
24
24
23
21
11x
122x
11x
2.1x
Kleinheinz
Lab Corp. of Americca / LH
24
25
24
29
27
26
22
20
19
17x
144x
13x
2.2x
Brave Warrior, Glenview
Praxair / PX
23
21
22
27
27
24
23
19
21
26x
188x
16x
3.5x
Eagle, Weitz
Enstar Group / ESG GR
23
16
19
15
16
30
42
27
10
8x
99x
8x
nm
Akre
Teck Resources / TCK T
22
13
15
7
24
47
35
22
8
16x
nna
na
4.8x
Lone Pine, Pabbrai
Cisco Systems / CS SCO
21
17
19
17
25
27
24
23
16
14x
122x
11x
2.0x
Appaloosa, ESLL, Pennant
Gap / GPS
21
26
24
22
18
15
22
24
25
15x
122x
12x
.9x
ESL, Gates
Wal-Mart / WMT
21
22
21
21
20
20
22
22
22
15x
144x
12x
.6x
BRK, Eagle, Maarkel
Dean Foods / DF
20
12
6
25
60
14
12
14
10
22x
177x
13x
.5x
Appaloosa
BP / BP
20
-4
-4
17
23
23
27
28
23
nm
88x
7x
.6x
Blue Ridge, Greeenlight
ITT Corp. / ITT
20
19
19
19
23
22
21
14
21
17x
133x
12x
1.0x
Atlantic
B Anheuser-Busch / BUD
19
16
18
9
30
--
--
--
--
19x
177x
14x
3.5x
Markel
Anadarko Petroleum m / APC
18
4
4
-1
18
26
41
23
18
53x
355x
24x
4.5x
Paulson
Stanley Black Deckker / SWK
18
3
4
12
18
20
19
20
35
58x
155x
13x
1.7x
Atlantic, Breedeen
Fiserv / FISV
18
16
16
17
23
18
18
21
16
19x
144x
13x
3.0x
Brave Warrior, Glenview
POSCO / PKX
18
49
12
16
15
17
23
24
16
10x
99x
9x
1.1x
Pabrai
H&R Block / HRB
17
47
34
40
-26
-24
24
33
40
10x
100x
9x
1.2x
Breeden, ESL, Viking
Ensco / ESV
17
15
15
27
29
27
12
4
5
10x
155x
14x
3.6x
Greenlight, Houund
12
Pfizer / PFE
17
9
11
14
12
12
29
27
19x
99x
8x
2.6x
Appaloosa, Pauulson
Hewlett-Packard / HPQ H
16
21
22
19
22
19
17
6
9
13x
99x
9x
.9x
Appaloosa, Braave Warrior
Copart / CPRT
16
15
15
16
19
16
13
16
14
23x
199x
16x
4.1x
Force, Gates
Cardinal Health / CAH
15
18
9
14
17
24
12
13
19
26x
166x
14x
.2x
Greenlight
Seagate Technologgy / STX
15
43
75
-1102
27
18
22
32
33
4x
nna
na
.6x
ESL, Glenview,, Paulson
Flowserve / FLS
15
21
27
33
22
12
2
3
6
17x
199x
16x
1.7x
Breeden, Scoutt
Zimmer Holdings / ZMH Z
15
14
11
13
15
15
17
17
15
21x
144x
12x
3.0x
Bares, Edinburggh, Gates
Raytheon / RTN
14
19
19
21
16
22
12
8
4
11x
100x
9x
.8x
Atlantic
Fortune Brands / FO O
14
9
9
5
6
15
20
18
27
20x
199x
16x
1.8x
Markel, Pershinng Square
Valeant Pharma / VRX V
14
-4
14
16
15
17
22
17
-3
36x
nna
na
17.8xx
Chou, Viking, B Blue Ridge
Applied Materials / AMAT
13
13
13
-4
13
24
20
13
16
24x
133x
12x
2.0x
Appaloosa, Edinburgh
Steris / STE
13
6
18
16
10
11
9
12
15
16x
166x
15x
1.7x
Breeden
McKesson / MCK
12
16
18
13
16
15
13
-3
13
17x
166x
14x
.2x
Glenview, Vikinng
J.C. Penney / JCP
12
7
6
12
23
28
25
10
-17
35x
244x
21x
.6x
Force, Pershingg Square
Snap-on / SNA
12
14
14
11
19
15
10
9
8
19x
155x
13x
1.6x
Gates
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Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
7-Yr
GAAP G Return on Equity (%)
Avg
P/E
… Years Ago
Company / Ticker
ROE
LTM
1
2
CareFusion / CFN
12
3
4
Chesapeake Energgy / CHK
11
8
-43
Kraft Foods / KFT
11
12
Owens Illinois / OI
10
Vulcan Materials / VMC V
5
6
7
EV/
Selected
Last
Thhis
P P/E (Est.) Next
LTM
Superinvestorr
FY
FFY
FY
Saless
Shareholders
3
4
11
13
21
--
--
--
36x
177x
15x
1.6x
Greenlight, Thirrd Point
4
12
27
24
23
30
nm
100x
11x
4.4x
Icahn, Southeastern
13
13
12
10
11
9
9
21x
144x
12x
1.6x
BRK, Fairfax, P Pershing Sq.
11
-3
13
18
159
-56
-85
26
20x
111x
9x
1.3x
Atlantic
10
-2
-2
1
0
16
23
19
15
nm
nnm
>99x
3.4x
Southeastern, W Weitz
Molson Coors / TAP P
8
10
10
11
6
8
7
4
14
13x
122x
11x
2.8x
Childrens, Wesst Coast
Omnicare / OCR
8
1
6
4
3
6
9
13
13
13x
133x
12x
.8x
Weitz
Plains Exploration / PXP
7
5
5
-25
7
65
-27
1
23
36x
333x
23x
7.0x
BP Capital, Third Point
Arris Group / ARRS S
7
6
6
10
-14
11
28
15
-11
27x
166x
14x
1.2x
Sageview
Vail Resorts / MTN
6
4
4
7
14
9
8
5
-1
59x
477x
38x
2.6x
Paulson, Southeastern
Learning Tree / LTR RE
6
8
9
2
17
25
-5
-3
-1
29x
233x
16x
.7x
Lane Five
International Paperr / IP
6
10
10
13
-20
14
13
13
0
20x
111x
9x
.8x
Appaloosa, Pauulson
Texas Industries / TXI T
6
-10
-5
-2
11
17
1
15
5
nm
nnm
nm
2.7x
Southeastern
Comcast / CMCSA
6
8
8
9
6
6
6
2
2
20x
177x
15x
2.5x
Brave Warrior, Paulson
CommScope / CTV V
6
7
6
-20
20
21
10
17
-15
37x
188x
13x
1.2x
Paulson, Tiger Global
Harvest Natural / HNR
5
8
-1
-7
20
-22
14
16
15
nm
299x
10x
>99xx
Pabrai
Theravance / THRX X
5
83
79
53
93
--
-270
-115
188
nm
nnm
nm
63.1xx
Baupost, Blue R Ridge
Hain Celestial / HAIN
4
5
4
-3
6
7
6
5
6
45x
244x
21x
1.7x
Icahn
Tyco International / TYC
4
11
8
-13
10
-7
11
10
10
20x
nna
na
1.4x
Glenview, Weitzz
Watson Pharma / WPI W
3
6
6
9
12
8
-24
6
7
38x
144x
11x
2.3x
Chou, Viking
Life Technologies / LIFE
3
9
9
4
0
7
-10
7
5
27x
144x
13x
3.5x
Glenview, Sageeview
Liberty Interactive / LINTA
2
11
4
-11
6
6
4
5
--
40x
177x
23x
3.0x
Southeastern, TThird Point
Time Warner Cablee / TWC
2
14
15
8
-35
5
9
6
7
20x
166x
13x
2.4x
Edinburgh, Viking
Massey Energy / MEE M
1
-9
-11
9
5
13
5
-13
2
nm
199x
13x
2.5x
Third Point
Sears Holdings / SH HLD
0
2
3
1
7
12
11
33
-66
47x
722x
82x
.3x
ESL, Fairholmee, Force
Lamar Advertising / LAMR
0
-7
-7
0
3
3
2
1
-5
nm
nnm
nm
5.9x
Akre, Force, Sccout
Electronic Arts / ER RTS
-2
-15
-23
-29
-11
2
7
16
26
nm
299x
22x
1.2x
Hawkshaw, Tiger Global
American Tower / AMT A
-3
10
8
12
2
1
-6
-17
-20
92x
588x
49x
15.1xx
Akre, Viking
Liberty Global / LBT TYA
-4
38
-13
-17
-7
9
-1
-1
1
nm
355x
39x
2.6x
Blue Ridge, Tigger Global
Asbury Automotive / ABG
-5
13
6
-85
8
11
12
11
4
25x
133x
10x
.4x
General Growth / GGP G
-6
-118
-97
0
18
3
4
14
18
nm
nnm
53x
11.5xx
Wendy's Arby's / WEN W
-7
0
0
-34
4
-3
-16
5
-4
>99x
300x
22x
.9x
Southeastern
ZipRealty / ZIPR
-8
-37
-28
-21
-18
-22
22
0
10
nm
nnm
nm
.2x
Ancient Art
PDL BioPharma / PDLI P
-9
-35
-49
88
-4
-26
-36
-12
-26
5x
55x
4x
2.9x
Baupost
MSD Blue Ridge, Pershing Sq.
Alere / ALR
-10
-37
-39
0
-1
-15
-3
-6
-6
nm
144x
12x
2.4x
Baupost
W.R. Grace / GRA
-13
-142
-111
-20
-31
-20
-2
-11
102
14x
133x
13x
.7x
Gates, Hound, H Partners
MRV Comms / MRV VC
-15
18
0
-54
-8
-5
-11
-8
-18
>99x
222x
13x
.6x
Spencer
CBS / CBS
-16
8
8
3
-78
6
7
-22
-33
22x
166x
12x
1.5x
Ancient Art, Childrens
Flextronics / FLEX
-17
26
1
-1122
-10
9
3
7
-8
>99x
nna
na
.3x
Glenview
Sprint Nextel / S
-18
-22
-21
-13
-13
-78
3
5
-8
nm
nnm
nm
.9x
GoldenTree, Grreenlight
Radian Group / RDN
-21
-115
-126
-7
-17
-38
15
14
15
nm
nnm
9x
nm
Harbinger
Vishay Precision / VPG V
-30
7
7
1
-99
--
--
--
--
20x
211x
14x
.7x
Gates
Gastar Exploration / GST
-30
2
37
-6
-32
-77
-36
-56
-41
4x
nna
na
9.1x
BP Capital
AbitibiBowater / AB BH
-38
68
121
-3314
-36
-14
-9
-6
-12
nm
nnm
11x
.9x
Fairfax, Markel,, Paulson
Amylin Pharma / AM MLN
-48
-40
-40
-40
-60
-36
-62
--
--
nm
nnm
nm
4.0x
Icahn
Lions Gate / LGF
-54
-235
-41
-1155
-40
8
-4
22
-170
nm
nna
na
.8x
Icahn, MHR
Loral Space / LORLL
-73
31
72
-1164
-2
-4
-494
19
60
10x
nna
na
1.5x
MHR
Level 3 Comms / LV VLT
-88
-373
-82
-30
-159
202
--
nm
nnm
nm
2.3x
Fairfax, Southeeastern
Spectrum Brands / SPB
-110
-16
-22
-5515
165
-363
-67
8
22
nm
166x
13x
1.2x
Harbinger
General Motors / GM
-127
3
-326
72
--
--
--
--
--
nm
133x
9x
.4x
Appaloosa, Perrshing Sq.
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 155 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
Essay: “O On Pricingg Power,” by Josh Taarasoff Josh Ta arasoff, generral partner of Greenlea L Lane Capital Partners, delivered the following speeech at VALUEx Ex Zurich/Klostters on Februarry 2, 2011. Pricing power is ofteen defined as the ability too pass inflatioonary cost increases through to custoomers, and it iis often mentiooned as a keyy sign of a strong busineess. Defined in this way, ppricing power is indeed a goood thing. It iis certainly better to be ab ble to pass alonng your cost inncreases than too be unable to do so. But I do on’t think thatt inflationary ppricing power is a particulaarly special virtue. If I weere an entrepreeneur and my bbusiness were m my livelihood, I would at least want my y income to sttay constant inn terms of purcchasing power over time. That is the minimum m I woould want; otheerwise, I woulld be inclined to sell my business. Moreoveer, inflationaryy pricing powerr is not unusuaal, because inflaation is the general increase in price levvels. nsider inflationnary pricing poower a (near) nnecessary conddition for a So I con business to be b considered aattractive, but it’s not reallyy something I gget excited about. What I do get exciited about is tthe ability to rraise prices inn excess of inflation. o you need ffor above-inflation pricing power? Welll first you What do obviously neeed franchise characteristiccs. You needd a brand, orr customer captivity, or simply s a consoolidated industrry with rationaal competitive bbehavior— some factor or o set of factorrs that makes iit so competitioon is not basedd primarily on price. Thiss is nothing moore than standaard competitivee analysis. So you need franchis e characteristiics, but that is not all you need. For example, Cocca-Cola has onne of the stronggest brands in tthe world and operates in a consolidateed industry witth rational com mpetitive behavvior, but I believe that it raises prices with w inflation, not in excess oof inflation.
“Above-in nflation priciing ppower is rarre, and I thin nk you need sometthing unusua al to hhave it. One such thing would w be a produ uct that is priiced significantlyy below its value v to customers.”
Above-in nflation pricinng power is raare, and I thiink you need something unusual to haave it. One suchh thing would be a product thhat is priced siignificantly below its vaalue to custom mers. With succh a product, real (as oppossed to just nominal) pricce increases woouldn’t necessaarily hurt demaand. The reasson situations like this are unusual is thaat markets aree generally efficient at pricing p productts. What we aare looking forr, in fact, is a mispriced product, in th he same sense iinvestors look for mispriced securities. Theere must be a reason for the t inefficienccy, and you proobably want too have an idea about how the inefficien ncy will be corrrected over tim me, because thaat is how you w will benefit as an investorr. One reasson a companyy might chargge prices that aare too low is that, for a period of tim me in the comppany’s history,, there was noo incentive to ccharge full prices. I havee in mind here a company callled Verisk Analytics (Nasdaqq: VRSK). Verisk iss an American company that was founded iin the 1970s byy the major US property and casualty insurance com mpanies. Thesee companies ccollectively provided Verrisk with their claims data inn order to creaate a centralizeed database that would allow the industrry to analyze rrisk better. c to provvide data, anaalytics, and oother services that were Verisk came absolutely crritical for its ccustomers to cconduct busineess. However, because it was owned by b and existedd to serve its customers, Verisk didn’t chharge high
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Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
prices. This seems to havve persisted oover the decaddes, even thouugh Verisk converted to a for-profit corrporation in 19997 and went ppublic in 2009. V revennues are only about 2 basis points of its customers’ Today, Verisk’s collective rev venues and onlly 1-2% of theeir operating exxpenses. This despite the fact that its products p are unnique, indispennsible, and havve enormous vvalue-add. I think Verisk could raise priices above inflaation. hing I look at inn relation to thhe ability to raiise prices abovve inflation A key th is the operatiing margin. If prices go up X X% in excess of inflation, thhe resultant operating inccome growth is equal to X multiplied bby the reciproocal of the operating maargin. So, in thhis context it iis good to havve low operatinng margins because it maakes above-infl flation price inccreases more m meaningful. Verisk’s operating marrgin in the mosst recent quarteer was about 440%. While % price increase above its cost inflation this is impresssive, it meanss that each 1% results in only y 2.5% operatiing income groowth. Another company thatt I think has aabove-inflationn pricing poweer is Scotts G). SMG’s operrating margin iis only about 14%, which Miracle-Gro (NYSE: SMG means that a 1% price inncrease above its cost inflaation would prroduce 7% operating inccome growth. This is very v powerful, because it means that if SM MG raises the reeal price of its products by b only 1% peer year over tiime, it would take only a m minimum of unit growth to o achieve doubble-digit, long--term earnings growth. SMG is the t dominant m manufacturer oof branded law wn and garden pproducts in the US—thin ngs like fertilizzer, grass seedd, weed killer, and even dirt. Its brands have existed for decades annd completely ddominate their categories. Historicaally the compaany has not pusshed hard on ppricing, largelyy because it was still con nsolidating itss market posiition and estaablishing its nnegotiating leverage with h retailers.
“One reasson a compa any might charg ge prices tha at are too low is th hat, for a peeriod of time in the companyy’s history, there was no o incentive to charge fu ull pprices. I havve in mind heere a companyy called Verissk A Analytics (N Nasdaq: VRS SK).”
In early 2009, the coost of urea, w which is the pprimary raw m material in ked up about 44x, and the com mpany decidedd to raise fertillizer prices fertilizer, spik in order to maintain m its maargins. Initiallyy, managementt was uncertainn about the reaction that retailers woulld have to a vvery large pricee increase. Hoowever, the MG’s products were such stroong drivers retailers’ attittude turned ouut to be that SM of store traffiic, that SMG shhould have thee power to set pprices as it saw w fit. SMG raiised fertilizer pprices by 30% on average. Reetailers actuallyy absorbed a portion of the increase, bbut prices stilll went up 20-225% at retail. SMG was very nervouss about what thhe effect on volumes wouldd be, especiallyy given the deep consum mer-led recessioon that was occcurring at the time. Howeveer, volumes dropped only y 2%. In retrosp pect, this mighht not be so surrprising. Amerricans are very passionate and engaged d in keeping ttheir lawns annd gardens, annd SMG’s prroducts are practically sy ynonymous w with the categoory. Moreoverr, the products are very affordable. I recently saw a bag of Scootts Turf Buildder fertilizer— —enough to cover 5,000 square feet off lawn—sellinng for under $$20. On averaage, people fertilize only twice per yearr. I will cllose by sayingg that VRSK aand SMG tradde at about 255x and 15x trailing free cash c flow, resppectively. I acctually think thhat if their businesses are as good as th hey seem, theyy are reasonablle, or even goood, investmentts—even at these multiples. However, I don’t own eitther of them.
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 157 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
FFavorite Sttock Screeens For Vaalue Investtors ““Magic Form mula,” base sed on Traililing Operatiing Income C Companies with high h returns on capital c employed, trading at high trailing EBIT-to-e enterprise value yield
Company
Tickerr
Price ($)
Movve To 52-W Week Low High
▼
▼ EBIT/ Capital E Employed
Tax Rate
Price/ Tangible Book
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
EV V/ Salles
Trailing EBIT/ EV
Insiders % Buys/ Ownn. Sells
1
InfoSpace
INSP
8.33
-21%
42%
301
47
.22x
52%
infinite
35%
1.3x
1%
2
* Daily Journnal
DJCO
73.80
-15%
4%
102
25
.77x
47%
infinite
37%
1.5x
4%
3/9 -/1
3
EarthLink
ELNK
8.38
-6%
12%
908
515
.88x
36%
11606%
41%
1.4x
1%
12 / 6
4
PDL BioPharrma
PDLI
4.93
-2%
48%
688
926
2.88x
32%
infinite
37%
n/m
0%
-/-
5
Terra Nova Royalty R
TTT
8.49
-50%
10%
321
176
.66x
29%
infinite
63%
1.0x
0%
-/-
6
ITT Educational
ESI
72.67
-31%
68%
2,319
2,156
1.44x
28%
infinite
39%
>9.9x
0%
13 / 2
7
Bridgepoint Edu. E
BPI
19.42
-34%
42%
1,014
785
1.22x
26%
infinite
42%
5.0x
1%
7/7
8
Unisys
UIS
41.00
-58%
1%
1,748
1,743
.44x
22%
infinite
26%
n/m
0%
18 / 7
9
Metropolitan Health
MDF
5.15
-56%
3%
208
167
.55x
23%
1422%
38%
3.8x
3%
4/4
10
Amerigroup
AGP
57.83
-56%
2%
2,867
2,119
.44x
21%
infinite
37%
3.2x
2%
11 / 12
11
Apollo Groupp
APOL
45.82
-26%
46%
6,559
5,700
1.11x
24%
1053%
48%
6.8x
3%
10 / 11
12
Impax Labs
IPXL
23.35
-69%
6%
1,500
1,142
1.22x
40%
380%
37%
3.3x
1%
4/5
13
Medicis Pharrma
MRX
27.84
-24%
11%
1,688
1,207
1.77x
20%
infinite
41%
3.4x
1%
-/2
14
AutoChina
AUTC
21.64
-9%
124%
426
308
.55x
19%
infinite
24%
2.0x
0%
-/-
15
ePlus
PLUS
28.94
-47%
5%
245
221
.33x
19%
infinite
39%
1.3x
9%
8/7
16
VirnetX
VHC
12.99
-69%
54%
634
560
2.88x
19%
infinite
45%
>9.9x
0%
2/3
17
Tessera Techhnologies
TSRA A
17.64
-15%
31%
890
415
1.44x
30%
360%
45%
1.7x
1%
4/4
18
Career Educaation
CECO O
24.37
-33%
47%
1,980
1,533
.77x
21%
789%
33%
4.6x
0%
6/5
19
Oshkosh
OSK
37.55
-34%
19%
3,407
4,196
.55x
30%
341%
33%
n/m
0%
14 / 6
20
H&R Block
HRB
14.54
-30%
46%
4,436
4,636
1.22x
18%
infinite
38%
n/m
0%
14 / 2
21
Power-One
PWER R
9.26
-63%
41%
988
816
.88x
36%
243%
41%
3.8x
2%
9/2
22
Cardiome Phharma
CRME E
6.00
-24%
56%
367
338
3.88x
17%
infinite
n/m
6.6x
0%
-/-
23
USA Mobilityy
USMO O
17.29
-36%
11%
382
240
1.00x
25%
265%
31%
2.2x
1%
5/4
24
Dell
DELL
15.43
-27%
14%
29,7844
21,416
.33x
16%
infinite
21%
>9.9x
12% %
5/6
25
Amedisys
AMED D
38.08
-40%
69%
1,105
1,170
.77x
19%
298%
39%
>9.9x
0%
2/1
26
United Onlinee
UNTD D
7.12
-33%
22%
612
800
.99x
15%
infinite
40%
n/m
6%
3 / 10
27
* Veeco Instruments
VECO O
49.12
-40%
11%
1,960
1,425
1.55x
19%
248%
4%
2.8x
0%
3/5
28
* China Ceraamics
CCCL
7.26
-30%
39%
120
125
.55x
57%
138%
27%
1.3x
0%
-/-
29
Rigel Pharmaaceuticals
RIGL
7.08
-15%
25%
369
203
1.66x
15%
1068%
n/m
2.1x
0%
-/1
30
ViroPharma
VPHM M
17.30
-42%
8%
1,349
1,045
2.66x
18%
252%
43%
6.3x
0%
5/6
31
SuperGen
SUPG G
3.08
-44%
23%
186
78
1.66x
14%
infinite
n/m
1.6x
0%
-/-
32
Global Cash Access
GCA
3.59
-37%
158%
233
414
.77x
14%
infinite
40%
n/m
1%
-/4
33
Argan
AGX
9.23
-20%
74%
126
49
.22x
18%
219%
36%
1.7x
0%
-/-
34
Providence Service S
PRSC C
16.11
-30%
15%
209
330
.44x
18%
218%
44%
n/m
1%
-/2
35
* Gilead Scieences
GILD
39.30
-19%
26%
31,9066
26,588
3.33x
16%
271%
26%
6.8x
1%
8/5
36
AmSurg
AMSG G
23.85
-31%
0%
738
1,000
1.44x
23%
131%
16%
n/m
2%
6/3
37
Nephros
NEP
5.32
-47%
90%
157
110
1.00x
57%
114%
24%
1.6x
16% %
-/2
38
Deluxe
DLX
25.99
-36%
2%
1,333
2,071
1.55x
14%
478%
35%
n/m
1%
8/3
39
Lihua Internaational
LIWA
10.82
-33%
21%
316
225
.88x
20%
137%
25%
2.3x
48% %
2/-
40
Lincoln Educcational
LINC
15.88
-39%
78%
352
375
.66x
32%
110%
41%
3.2x
4%
4/8
41
Value Line
VALU
14.53
-17%
88%
145
103
1.99x
13%
infinite
27%
>9.9x
0%
-/-
42
* Santarus
SNTS
3.22
-35%
76%
189
134
.88x
13%
infinite
15%
>9.9x
1%
2/2
43
* Microsoft
MSFT T
27.06
-16%
17%
227,3699
195,788
2.99x
13%
2353%
24%
6.5x
11% %
15 / 13
44
Aeropostale
ARO
26.64
-20%
21%
2,344
2,104
.99x
19%
128%
39%
4.7x
0%
1/1
45
DeVry
DV
55.18
-34%
35%
3,821
3,359
1.66x
14%
334%
33%
6.8x
10% %
18 / 3
Company website
SEC
Y!
Proxyy
Y!
* New additions aree highlighted.
Pricee Charts
Sc creening criteria: ► Market value e > $100 million ► ADRs and b banks excluded
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 158 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
““Magic Form mula,” base sed on This Year’s Y EPSS Estimates C Companies with high h returns on capital c employed, trading at high earnings yields ((based on this FY Y EPS estimatess)
Price ($)
Movve To 52-W Week Low High
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
▼
▼
EV V/ Salles
This FY EPS Yield
EBIT/ Capital E Employed
Tax Rate
Price to Tangible Book
Insiders % Buys/ Ow wn. Sells
Company
Tickerr
1
GTx
GTXI
2.75
-31%
56%
140
120
1.99x
14%
infinite
n/m
8.7x
20% %
6/-
2
ITT Educational
ESI
72.67
-31%
68%
2,319
2,156
1.44x
13%
infinite
39%
>9.9x
0% %
13 / 2
3
VirnetX
VHC
12.99
-69%
54%
634
560
2.88x
12%
infinite
45%
>9.9x
0% %
2/3
4
Metropolitan Health
MDF
5.15
-56%
3%
208
167
.55x
12%
1422%
38%
3.8x
3% %
4/4
5
Impax Labs
IPXL
23.35
-69%
6%
1,500
1,142
1.22x
13%
380%
37%
3.3x
1% %
4/5
6
ePlus
PLUS
28.94
-47%
5%
245
221
.33x
11%
infinite
39%
1.3x
9% %
8/7
7
Dell
DELL
15.43
-27%
14%
29,7844
21,416
.33x
11%
infinite
21%
>9.9x
12% %
5/6
8
Career Educaation
CECO O
24.37
-33%
47%
1,980
1,533
.77x
11%
789%
33%
4.6x
0% %
6/5
9
* China Ceraamics
CCCL
7.26
-30%
39%
120
125
.55x
39%
138%
27%
1.3x
0% %
-/-
10
Bridgepoint Edu. E
BPI
19.42
-34%
42%
1,014
785
1.22x
11%
infinite
42%
5.0x
1% %
7/7
11
GT Solar
SOLR R
11.40
-57%
5%
1,424
1,243
1.55x
10%
infinite
36%
>9.9x
0% %
9 / 14
12
Cornerstone
CRTX X
5.43
-12%
39%
139
91
.77x
12%
255%
26%
3.3x
56% %
2/3
13
* Power-Onee
PWER R
9.26
-63%
41%
988
816
.88x
13%
243%
41%
3.8x
2% %
9/2
14
Amedisys
AMED D
38.08
-40%
69%
1,105
1,170
.77x
11%
298%
39%
>9.9x
0% %
2/1
15
Nephros
NEP
5.32
-47%
90%
157
110
1.00x
23%
114%
24%
1.6x
16% %
-/2
16
Apollo Groupp
APOL
45.82
-26%
46%
6,559
5,700
1.11x
10%
1053%
48%
6.8x
3% %
10 / 11
17
Rigel Pharmaaceuticals
RIGL
7.08
-15%
25%
369
203
1.66x
10%
1068%
n/m
2.1x
0% %
-/1
18
Forest Labs
FRX
34.33
-30%
1%
9,822
6,087
1.44x
13%
151%
27%
2.2x
1% %
8 / 10
19
Lincoln Educcational
LINC
15.88
-39%
78%
352
375
.66x
17%
110%
41%
3.2x
4% %
4/8
20
Gilead Sciences
GILD
39.30
-19%
26%
31,9066
26,588
3.33x
10%
271%
26%
6.8x
1% %
8/5
21
Veeco Instruments
VECO O
49.12
-40%
11%
1,960
1,425
1.55x
10%
248%
4%
2.8x
0% %
3/5
22
Lihua Internaational
LIWA
10.82
-33%
21%
316
225
.88x
13%
137%
25%
2.3x
48% %
2/-
23
Microsoft
MSFT T
27.06
-16%
17%
227,3699
195,788
2.99x
9%
2353%
24%
6.5x
11% %
15 / 13
24
America's Caar-Mart
CRMT T
24.33
-16%
24%
263
314
.99x
11%
211%
37%
1.5x
6% %
3/2
25
Endo Pharmaa
ENDP P
34.49
-43%
11%
3,987
3,555
2.22x
10%
293%
25%
9.6x
0% %
8/4
26
Cephalon
CEPH
58.63
-6%
24%
4,440
4,323
1.55x
14%
93%
32%
7.4x
1% %
10 / 10
27
GameStop
GME
19.95
-14%
29%
3,020
3,088
.33x
13%
97%
35%
6.0x
1% %
16 / 5
28
Corinthian Coolleges
COCO O
5.28
-26%
266%
447
638
.33x
18%
87%
>99%
2.8x
1% %
19 / 3
29
Actuate
BIRT
5.20
-24%
17%
234
194
1.55x
9%
infinite
26%
7.6x
4% %
6/4
30
China Valvess
CVVT
6.72
-6%
121%
240
233
1.55x
20%
80%
19%
1.9x
0% %
-/-
31
Kulicke and Soffa S
KLIC
10.04
-48%
5%
717
613
.88x
12%
104%
2%
2.6x
2% %
14 / 12
32
Exceed Company
EDS
8.00
-24%
31%
157
62
.1 x
23%
78%
8%
.7x
0% %
-/-
33
Lam Researcch
LRCX
56.10
-42%
0%
6,931
5,920
2.00x
11%
124%
13%
3.7x
1% %
7 / 10 11 / 12
34
Amerigroup
AGP
57.83
-56%
2%
2,867
2,119
.44x
9%
infinite
37%
3.2x
2% %
35
SciClone Phaarma
SCLN
4.33
-52%
4%
207
154
1.99x
11%
97%
4%
2.7x
0% %
-/-
36
* Cisco Systems
CSCO O
18.85
-2%
47%
104,4811
79,493
1.99x
8%
3441%
16%
4.0x
0% %
21 / 10
37
Aeropostale
ARO
26.64
-20%
21%
2,344
2,104
.99x
10%
128%
39%
4.7x
0% %
1/1
38
Teradyne
TER
18.92
-53%
1%
3,432
2,778
1.77x
9%
165%
4%
3.4x
0% %
5/5
39
Medicis Pharrma
MRX
27.84
-24%
11%
1,688
1,207
1.77x
8%
infinite
41%
3.4x
1% %
-/2
40
SkyPeople Juuice
SPU
4.76
-15%
70%
122
86
1.11x
20%
66%
31%
1.2x
0% %
-/-
41
* Gulf Resouurces
GFRE E
8.97
-30%
46%
311
237
1.66x
16%
67%
27%
1.7x
16% %
6/-
42
* Marvell Tecchnology
MRVLL
18.89
-27%
21%
12,2899
9,614
2.77x
9%
204%
2%
4.0x
0% %
2/3
43
DeVry
DV
55.18
-34%
35%
3,821
3,359
1.66x
8%
334%
33%
6.8x
10% %
18 / 3
44
Almost Familly
AFAM
38.36
-39%
15%
355
316
1.00x
9%
183%
41%
5.9x
1% %
1/1
45
* Xyratex
XRTX
13.17
-20%
55%
385
295
.22x
18%
61%
n/m
1.1x
0% %
-/-
Company website
SEC
Y!
Proxxy
Y!
* New additions aree highlighted.
Pricee Charts
Sc creening criteria: ► MV > $100 million m ► ADRss and banks exclluded ► Enterp prise value to MV V < 1.5
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 159 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
““Magic Form mula,” base sed on Nextt Year’s EPSS Estimatess C Companies with high h returns on capital c employed, trading at high earnings yields ((based on next F FY EPS estimate es)
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
Movve To 52-W Week Low High
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
▼
▼
EV V/ Salees
Next FY EPS Yield
EBIT/ C Capital Em mployed
Tax Rate
Price to Tangible Book
Innsiders % Buys/ Own. Sells
1
Bridgepoint Edu. E
BPI
19.42
-34%
42%
1,014
785
1.2xx
13%
iinfinite
42%
5.0x
1%
2
* Nabi Biophharma
NABI
5.65
-22%
14%
240
136
3.3xx
13%
iinfinite
n/m
3.7x
1%
7/7 -/3
3
GT Solar
SOLR
11.40
-57%
5%
1,424
1,243
1.5xx
12%
iinfinite
36%
>9.9x
0%
9 / 14
4
* China Ceraamics
CCCL
7.26
-30%
39%
120
125
.5xx
33%
138%
27%
1.3x
0%
-/-
5
Dell
DELL
15.43
-27%
14%
29,784
21,416
.3xx
11%
iinfinite
21%
>9.9x
12%
5/6
6
Power-One
PWER
9.26
-63%
41%
988
816
.8xx
15%
243%
41%
3.8x
2%
9/2
7
ePlus
PLUS
28.94
-47%
5%
245
221
.3xx
11%
iinfinite
39%
1.3x
9%
8/7
8
ITT Educational
ESI
72.67
-31%
68%
2,319
2,156
1.4xx
11%
iinfinite
39%
>9.9x
0%
13 / 2
9
Endo Pharmaa
ENDP
34.49
-43%
11%
3,987
3,555
2.2xx
12%
293%
25%
9.6x
0%
8/4
10
Lihua Internaational
LIWA
10.82
-33%
21%
316
225
.8xx
17%
137%
25%
2.3x
48%
2/-
11
America's Caar-Mart
CRMT
24.33
-16%
24%
263
314
.9xx
12%
211%
37%
1.5x
6%
3/2
12
Gilead Sciences
GILD
39.30
-19%
26%
31,906
26,588
3.3xx
12%
271%
26%
6.8x
1%
8/5
13
Nephros
NEP
5.32
-47%
90%
157
110
1.0xx
19%
114%
24%
1.6x
16%
-/2
14
Forest Labs
FRX
34.33
-30%
1%
9,822
6,087
1.4xx
13%
151%
27%
2.2x
1%
8 / 10
15
* Actuate
BIRT
5.20
-24%
17%
234
194
1.5xx
10%
iinfinite
26%
7.6x
4%
6/4
16
Career Educaation
CECO
24.37
-33%
47%
1,980
1,533
.7xx
10%
789%
33%
4.6x
0%
6/5
17
Lincoln Educcational
LINC
15.88
-39%
78%
352
375
.6xx
14%
110%
41%
3.2x
4%
4/8
18
Metropolitan Health
MDF
5.15
-56%
3%
208
167
.5xx
10%
1422%
38%
3.8x
3%
4/4
19
Microsoft
MSFT
27.06
-16%
17%
227,369
195,788
2.9xx
10%
2353%
24%
6.5x
11%
15 / 13
20
Kulicke and Soffa S
KLIC
10.04
-48%
5%
717
613
.8xx
14%
104%
2%
2.6x
2%
14 / 12
21
GameStop
GME
19.95
-14%
29%
3,020
3,088
.3xx
15%
97%
35%
6.0x
1%
16 / 5
22
China Valvess
CVVT
6.72
-6%
121%
240
233
1.5xx
23%
80%
19%
1.9x
0%
-/-
23
Apollo Groupp
APOL
45.82
-26%
46%
6,559
5,700
1.1xx
10%
1053%
48%
6.8x
3%
10 / 11
24
Exceed Company
EDS
8.00
-24%
31%
157
62
.1xx
24%
78%
8%
.7x
0%
-/-
25
Teradyne
TER
18.92
-53%
1%
3,432
2,778
1.7xx
10%
165%
4%
3.4x
0%
5/5
26
Cisco System ms
CSCO
18.85
-2%
47%
104,481
79,493
1.9xx
9%
3441%
16%
4.0x
0%
21 / 10
27
LTX-Credencce
LTXC
9.60
-48%
18%
474
358
1.4xx
13%
88%
1%
3.3x
2%
-/5
28
Medicis Pharrma
MRX
27.84
-24%
11%
1,688
1,207
1.7xx
9%
iinfinite
41%
3.4x
1%
-/2
29
SkyPeople Juuice
SPU
4.76
-15%
70%
122
86
1.1xx
22%
66%
31%
1.2x
0%
-/-
30
Gulf Resourcces
GFRE
8.97
-30%
46%
311
237
1.6xx
19%
67%
27%
1.7x
16%
6/-
31
PMC-Sierra
PMCS
8.22
-17%
18%
1,902
1,805
2.8xx
9%
iinfinite
27%
6.5x
0%
5/8
32
Lam Researcch
LRCX
56.10
-42%
0%
6,931
5,920
2.0xx
10%
124%
13%
3.7x
1%
7 / 10
33
Xyratex
XRTX
13.17
-20%
55%
385
295
.2xx
19%
61%
n/m
1.1x
0%
-/-
34
Aeropostale
ARO
26.64
-20%
21%
2,344
2,104
.9xx
10%
128%
39%
4.7x
0%
1/1
35
* USANA Heealth
USNA
34.28
-21%
33%
547
523
1.0xx
10%
123%
34%
4.3x
51%
13 / 15
36
DeVry
DV
55.18
-34%
35%
3,821
3,359
1.6xx
9%
334%
33%
6.8x
10%
18 / 3
37
Lexmark
LXK
38.89
-19%
24%
3,055
2,487
.6xx
12%
66%
19%
2.9x
1%
2/7
38
* SinoCokingg Coal
SCOK
11.32
-36%
374%
236
266
3.9xx
15%
61%
13%
3.4x
0%
-/-
39
* Marvell Tecchnology
MRVL
18.89
-27%
21%
12,289
9,614
2.7xx
9%
204%
2%
4.0x
0%
2/3
40
* Amtech Syystems
ASYS
25.05
-68%
23%
236
183
1.2xx
10%
99%
39%
2.8x
2%
8/8
41
* Amgen
AMGN
52.24
-4%
17%
49,357
45,297
3.0xx
11%
76%
13%
4.8x
0%
3/7
42
* Harris Corpp.
HRS
48.65
-17%
12%
6,224
7,390
1.3xx
10%
85%
33%
>9.9x
1%
9/9
43
Cephalon
CEPH
58.63
-6%
24%
4,440
4,323
1.5xx
10%
93%
32%
7.4x
1%
10 / 10
44
Intel
INTC
22.14
-21%
10%
123,497
103,727
2.4xx
10%
90%
29%
2.7x
0%
4/4
45
Primoris Servvices
PRIM
9.13
-38%
10%
436
426
.6xx
10%
96%
39%
4.9x
4%
5/2
Company website
SEC
Y!
Proxyy
Y!
* New additions aree highlighted.
Price Charts
Sc creening criteria: ► MV > $100 million m ► ADRss and banks exclluded ► Enterp prise value to MV V < 1.5
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 160 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
CContrarian:: Biggest YTTD Losers (ddeleveragedd & profitabble) N Non-financial com mpanies with no net debt, positive e analyst estimattes for next year''s EPS, and large e YTD price drop p ▼ MV V ($m mn)
EV ($mn)
Prrice Change Since December 31, 20004 2009 20100
Price to Tangible Book
Neext FFY P P/E
Insiders % Buyys/ Own. Sells
Company
Tickker
Price ($)
1
* Ambow Edducation
AMB BO
8.18
583
460
n/m m
n/m
-41% %
4.9x
1 2x
0%
2
* China Xiniyya Fashion
XN NY
5.41
314
277
n/m m
n/m
-41% %
5.4x
88x
0%
-/-
3
Smith Micro Software S
SMSI
9.37
321
264
5% %
2%
-40% %
3.7x
2 8x
4%
4/9 6/-
-/-
4
* SemiLEDs
LED DS
17.60
480
478
n/m m
n/m
-39% %
6.2x
1 6x
7%
5
China Valvess
CVV VT
6.72
240
233
-60%
-27%
-36% %
1.9x
44x
0%
-/-
6
* China Agrittech
CAG GC
8.14
169
123
-78%
-42%
-34% %
1.2x
88x
2%
-/2
7
* TEKELEC
TKLLC
8.08
554
333
-60%
-47%
-32% %
1.5x
1 9x
0%
2/6
8
Novatel Wireless
NVT TL
6.85
217
69
-65%
-14%
-28% %
1.2x
338x
0%
2/1
9
* TAL Educaation
XR RS
11.90
887
708
n/m m
n/m
-26% %
6.2x
335x
0%
-/-
10
* Duoyuan Global G Water
DG GW
9.44
232
77
n/m m
-74%
-26% %
.9x
66x
0%
-/-
11
China Real Estate E
CRIC
7.25
1,0336
723
n/m m
-34%
-24% %
3.1x
1 3x
0%
-/-
12
* Monster Worldwide W
MW WW
17.99
2,3442
2,304
-47%
3%
-24% %
n/m
2 4x
3%
2/6 6/1
13
* Trident Miccrosystems
TRID
1.37
242
149
-84%
-26%
-23% %
1.7x
1 7x
1%
14
Vanda Pharm ma
VND DA
7.35
206
8
n/m m
-35%
-22% %
7.3x
667x
1%
-/1
15
* Dolby Labooratories
DLLB
51.93
5,8119
5,115
n/m m
9%
-22% %
4.8x
1 7x
0%
15 / 8
16
* Acorda Theerapeutics
ACO OR
21.27
831
599
n/m m
-16%
-22% %
6.4x
1 6x
1%
2/6
17
* China Lodgging
HTH HT
17.14
1,0110
820
n/m m
n/m
-21% %
3.3x
331x
0%
-/-
18
* EnerNOC
ENO OC
18.82
469
316
n/m m
-38%
-21% %
2.4x
337x
10%
2/7
19
* USANA Heealth
USN NA
34.28
547
523
0% %
7%
-21% %
4.3x
1 0x
51%
13 / 15
20
* Rosetta Stoone
RS ST
16.76
349
240
n/m m
-7%
-21% %
2.8x
1 6x
1%
-/-
21
* Symmetricom
SYM MM
5.63
245
166
-42%
8%
-21% %
1.4x
1 2x
1%
14 / 1
22
* Lentuo Inteernational
23
* Tessera Teechnologies
24 25
LA AS
5.57
164
162
n/m m
n/m
-21% %
2.8x
77x
0%
-/-
TSR RA
17.64
890
415
-53%
-24%
-20% %
1.7x
1 5x
1%
4/4
* Entropic Coomms
ENT TR
9.65
823
677
n/m m
214%
-20% %
3.3x
1 0x
0%
7/7
* K-Swiss
KSW WS
9.97
353
238
-66%
0%
-20% %
1.6x
338x
1%
3/3
26
* Infinera
INF FN
8.28
838
557
n/m m
-7%
-20% %
2.0x
338x
0%
9/8
27
LeapFrog
LF F
4.49
290
270
-67%
15%
-19% %
1.7x
1 2x
3%
7/7
28
* Albany Molecular
AMRI
4.55
138
109
-59%
-50%
-19% %
.6x
446x
0%
-/1
29
* Telestone Tech T
TST TC
8.63
106
105
90% %
-57%
-19% %
1.4x
44x
0%
-/-
30
* SIGA Techhnologies
SIG GA
11.40
546
527
5877%
97%
-19% %
80.3x
44x
0%
2/1
31
* Tellabs
TLA AB
5.54
2,0444
909
-36%
-2%
-18% %
1.3x
662x
5%
2 / 12
32
Fuel Tech
FTE EK
7.95
193
171
70% %
-3%
-18% %
3.5x
335x
0%
-/-
33
* China Finaance Online
JRJJC
5.35
118
92
-51%
-27%
-18% %
1.3x
1 8x
0%
-/-
34
Universal Tecchnical
UT TI
18.11
441
358
-52%
-10%
-18% %
4.4x
1 3x
2%
9/8
35
* Golden Minnerals
AUM MN
22.06
336
215
n/m m
127%
-17% %
2.6x
331x
42%
13 / 1
36
* Rex Energy
REX XX
11.28
494
493
n/m m
-6%
-17% %
1.6x
2 9x
19%
11 / 1
37
* Alimera Scciences
ALIIM
8.59
268
219
n/m m
n/m
-17% %
5.9x
1 6x
0%
2/-
38
* Vimicro
VIM MC
3.09
114
20
n/m m
-37%
-17% %
1.2x
444x
0%
-/-
39
Cree
CRE EE
54.68
5,9880
4,869
36% %
-3%
-17% %
3.4x
2 3x
1%
11 / 7
40
Standard Miccrosys
SMS SC
23.93
547
400
34% %
15%
-17% %
2.0x
1 4x
1%
11 / 3
41
China Cord Blood B
CO O
3.34
246
202
n/m m
-49%
-17% %
2.0x
1 5x
0%
-/-
42
* Home Innss & Hotels
HMIN
34.19
1,3774
1,229
n/m m
-3%
-17% %
4.0x
2 3x
0%
-/-
43
* Myriad Gennetics
MYG GN
19.07
1,7114
1,323
78% %
-27%
-17% %
3.1x
1 6x
0%
-/1
44
* ChinaCachhe
CCIH
17.37
403
391
n/m m
n/m
-16% %
34.8x
446x
0%
-/-
45
* Axcelis Tecchnologies
ACLLS
2.89
303
257
-64%
105%
-16% %
1.5x
99x
2%
7/5
Company website
SE EC
Y!
Proxy
Y Y!
* New additions aree highlighted.
Stock S Price Charts
Sc creening criteria: ► Positive net cash ► Positivve next FY EPS e estimate ► Ma arket value > $10 00 million
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 161 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
V Value with Catalyst: Cheap Ch Repurrchasers off Stock C Companies that may m be creating value v by reducin ng their shares ou utstanding at rela atively cheap pricces ▼ Price ($)
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
Q-Q Change in Shares
Nexxt FY Y P/E E
Price to Tangible Book
N Net Cash aas % of MV
Insiders % Buys/ Own. Sells
Company
Tickker
1
Elron Electronic
ELR RNF
5.61
167
110
-23.3%
-
.9x
34%
0%
-/-
2
Endurance Specialty S
EN NH
48.75
2,378 2
n/m
-9.9%
9xx
.9x
n/m
0%
-/-
3
Allied World
AW WH
62.13
2,625 2
n/m
-9.3%
-
.9x
n/m
0%
-/-
4
Scorpio Tankkers
STN NG
10.27
246
325
-7.0%
-
1.2x
-32%
0%
-/-
5
* Vishay Inteertech
VS SH
18.43
3,040 3
2,574
-6.6%
9xx
2.2x
15%
0%
7/1
6
FPIC Insurannce
FPIC
36.88
339
n/m
-6.1%
14xx
1.3x
n/m
3%
4/3
7
ITT Educational
ES SI
72.67
2,319 2
2,156
-6.0%
9xx
18.1x
7%
0%
13 / 2
8
* Aspen Insuurance
AH HL
29.81
2,286 2
n/m
-6.0%
9xx
.7x
n/m
0%
-/-
9
Fox Chase Bancorp B
FXC CB
13.22
192
n/m
-5.9%
34xx
.9x
n/m
0%
-/-
10
* Telenor
TELLNY
47.99
26,475
29,930
-5.8%
12xx
4.2x
-13%
0%
-/-
11
* Chubb
CB B
61.31
18,695
n/m
-5.8%
11xx
1.2x
n/m
0%
8 / 10
12
* Tyson Foods
TS SN
18.63
7,033 7
8,459
-5.6%
9xx
2.1x
-20%
1%
16 / 8
13
* XL Group
XL
24.65
7,968 7
n/m
-4.8%
-
.8x
n/m
0%
-/-
14
Scholastic
SCHL
30.61
894
1,125
-4.7%
12xx
2.3x
-26%
1%
10 / 6
15
Platinum Undderwriter
PT TP
44.49
1,747 1
n/m
-4.5%
9xx
.9x
n/m
2%
13 / 4
16
* Corinthian Colleges
COC CO
5.28
447
638
-4.0%
11xx
2.8x
-43%
1%
19 / 3
17
Aetna
AE ET
38.29
15,320
n/m
-4.0%
9xx
3.5x
n/m
0%
3/2
18
H&R Block
HR RB
14.54
4,436 4
4,636
-4.0%
9xx
n/m
-4%
0%
14 / 2
19
Employers Holdings
EIG
18.56
739
n/m
-4.0%
16xx
1.5x
n/m
0%
4/-
20
Best Buy
BY BB
33.04
13,024
13,921
-4.0%
9xx
4.1x
-7%
0%
7/3
21
Lukoil
LUK KOY
65.75
55,964
63,302
-3.9%
6xx
1.0x
-13%
0%
-/-
22
* Hawaiian Holdings H
HA A
7.34
369
267
-3.9%
10xx
14.2x
28%
0%
-/-
23
* O2Micro
OIIIM
8.73
316
213
-3.8%
13xx
1.8x
33%
0%
-/-
24
* PAA Nat. Gas G Storage
PN NG
24.33
769
1,028
-3.8%
21xx
1.1x
-34%
0%
-/-
25
America's Caar-Mart
CRM MT
24.33
263
314
-3.6%
8xx
1.5x
-19%
6%
3/2
26
* ArvinMeritoor
AR RM
18.92
1,783 1
2,538
-3.3%
8xx
n/m
-42%
3%
17 / 13
27
Hewlett-Packkard
HP PQ
48.67
1005,835
117,205
-3.1%
9xx
n/m
-11%
0%
15 / 12
28
* Multi-Fineliine
MFLX
29.84
715
616
-3.0%
11xx
1.9x
14%
0%
5/5
29
Forest Labs
RX FR
34.33
9,822 9
6,087
-2.9%
8xx
2.2x
38%
1%
8 / 10
30
Gilead Sciences
GILLD
39.30
31,906
26,588
-2.9%
9xx
6.8x
17%
1%
8/5
31
White Mountaains
WT TM
370.25
3,073 3
n/m
-2.8%
24xx
.8x
n/m
0%
-/-
32
* Alterra Cappital
ALT TE
22.05
2,544 2
n/m
-2.8%
9xx
.9x
n/m
0%
-/-
33
PartnerRe
PR RE
82.10
6,116 6
n/m
-2.8%
9xx
.9x
n/m
0%
-/-
34
* AstraZenecca
AZ ZN
49.38
68,443
65,115
-2.7%
8xx
57.8x
5%
0%
-/-
35
Torchmark
TM MK
65.45
5,240 5
n/m
-2.6%
9xx
1.4x
n/m
1%
21 / 14
36
Stage Storess
SS SI
17.30
634
630
-2.6%
16xx
1.4x
1%
1%
4/1
37
W.R. Berkleyy
WR RB
30.37
4,405 4
n/m
-2.5%
12xx
1.2x
n/m
6%
3/4
38
* Axis Capitaal
AX XS
37.81
4,674 4
n/m
-2.5%
9xx
.9x
n/m
0%
-/-
39
Blyth
BT TH
34.25
282
276
-2.5%
12xx
1.3x
2%
0%
-/1
40
* Raytheon
RT TN
52.16
19,015
18,987
-2.3%
9xx
n/m
0%
0%
3/3
41
* Exxon Mobbil
XO OM
0.00
4226,096
432,131
-2.3%
10xx
2.9x
-1%
0%
30 / 20
42
Qlogic
QLG GC
0.00
1,930 1
1,587
-2.2%
12xx
4.3x
18%
0%
8/4
43
* Rent-A-Center
RC CII
0.00
2,131 2
2,646
-2.2%
10xx
25.3x
-24%
2%
7/-
44
ProAssurancce Corp.
PR RA
0.00
1,811 1
n/m
-2.1%
12xx
1.1x
n/m
1%
6/6
45
LSI Corp.
LS SI
0.00
4,162 4
3,485
-2.1%
11xx
7.3x
16%
0%
3/1
Company website
SE EC
Y!
Proxy
Y!
* New additions aree highlighted.
0.4 ► MV > $10 00mn ► Q-Q shares < 0 Criiteria: ► MV < 2 * BV ► Next FY P/E < 12 ► Debt/equity < 0
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 162 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
PProfitable Dividend D Paayors with Decent D Balaance Sheetss D Dividend-paying companies c with no n net debt and EPS estimates in n excess of 75% % of the indicated annual dividend d ▼ Move M To 52-Week 5 Low w High
MV V ($mn)
EV ($mn)
Dividend Yield LLast 12 Annuall M Months Indicate d
Est. P/E This Next FY FY
Price to Tangible Book
IInsiders % Buys/ Ownn. Sells
Company
Ticker
Price ($)
1
Two Harbors Invest.
TWO
10.77
-26% %
1%
4166
n/m
14%
15%
7x
8x
1.1x
1% %
5/1
2
Life Partners
LPHI
8.09
-15% %
142%
151
n/m
12%
10%
5x
5x
2.2x
0% %
1/-
3
Himax Tech
HIMX X
2.66
-25% %
23%
4766
428
19%
9%
13x
10x
1.3x
0% %
-/-
4
PennyMac Mortgage M
PMT
18.17
-14% %
4%
4799
n/m
7%
9%
8x
7x
1.5x
0% %
1/1
5
TICC Capital
TICC
12.66
-53% %
4%
3422
n/m
6%
8%
14x
12x
1.4x
1% %
1/-
6
NGP Capital
NGPC C
9.65
-30% %
13%
2099
n/m
7%
7%
18x
11x
.9x
1% %
4/-
7
Mesabi Trustt
MSB
36.57
-58% %
58%
4800
n/m
7%
7%
13x
12x
>9.9x
0% %
-/-
8
Crexus Invesstment
CXS
13.25
-11% %
6%
2400
n/m
4%
7%
11x
9x
.9x
0% %
-/-
9
Lorillard
LO
79.53
-12% %
13%
11,8899
11,605
5%
7%
11x
10x
n/m
0% %
11 / 3
10
Gladstone Investment
GAIN
7.77
-37% %
6%
1722
n/m
6%
6%
11x
14x
.9x
1% %
3/-
11
BGC Partnerrs
BGCP P
9.20
-57% %
0%
8700
n/m
5%
6%
12x
10x
3.7x
9% %
7/4
12
Nokia
NOK
9.19
-13% %
73%
34,127
24,134
6%
6%
13x
11x
3.8x
0% %
-/-
13
CTC Media
CTCM M
22.10
-42% %
14%
3,4559
3,313
1%
6%
24x
18x
>9.9x
0% %
7/7
14
BBVA Bancoo Frances
BFR
11.90
-55% %
16%
2,2116
n/m
6%
6%
9x
12x
2.8x
0% %
-/-
15
Colony Finanncial
CLNY Y
21.01
-21% %
1%
3655
n/m
3%
6%
18x
12x
1.3x
0% %
4/-
16
Telecom Argentina
TEO
25.30
-42% %
8%
2,3442
2,114
8%
5%
11x
10x
1.9x
0% %
-/-
17
* Old Republic
ORI
12.84
-14% %
21%
3,0996
n/m
5%
5%
20x
10x
.8x
1% %
2/1
18
American Software
AMSW WA
6.78
-33% %
6%
1755
137
5%
5%
24x
19x
3.5x
0% %
2/-
19
* NY Commuunity
NYB
18.85
-24% %
3%
8,2111
n/m
5%
5%
14x
13x
2.7x
1% %
11 / 6
20
Nat'l Australiaa Bank
NABZY Y
26.78
-31% %
0%
57,9957
n/m
6%
5%
11x
10x
1.8x
0% %
-/-
21
Westpac Bannking
WBK
123.02
-30% %
9%
73,6677
n/m
6%
5%
12x
12x
2.7x
0% %
-/-
22
Bristol Myerss Squibb
BMY
25.49
-13% %
10%
43,6631
41,994
5%
5%
12x
13x
5.4x
0% %
4/8
23
AstraZeneca
AZN
49.38
-18% %
8%
68,4443
65,115
5%
5%
7x
8x
>9.9x
0% %
-/-
24
* Tower Banncorp
TOBC C
22.69
-22% %
23%
2644
n/m
5%
5%
11x
11x
1.2x
11% %
31 / -
25
Australia andd NZ
ANZBY Y
25.10
-35% %
4%
65,3360
n/m
5%
5%
11x
11x
2.4x
0% %
-/-
26
People's Unitted
PBCT T
13.39
-9% %
25%
4,9441
n/m
5%
5%
23x
17x
1.5x
1% %
5 / 12
27
THL Credit
TCRD D
13.17
-32% %
2%
261
n/m
1%
5%
44x
12x
1.0x
0% %
5/-
28
* Banco Argeentaria
BBVA A
12.76
-32% %
21%
56,9983
n/m
3%
4%
8x
9x
1.5x
0% %
-/-
29
* Bank of Eaast Asia
BKEAY Y
4.16
-22% %
12%
8,6115
n/m
3%
4%
17x
15x
1.7x
0% %
-/-
30
American Ecology
ECOLL
17.00
-24% %
7%
311
281
4%
4%
30x
22x
3.4x
0% %
7/1 12 / 10
31
Renasant
RNST T
16.06
-20% %
13%
4022
n/m
4%
4%
16x
13x
1.4x
1% %
32
Santander Brrasil
BSBR R
12.52
-22% %
25%
95,8865
n/m
2%
4%
12x
11x
3.9x
0% %
-/-
33
United Banksshares
UBSI
28.53
-23% %
12%
1,2444
n/m
4%
4%
17x
15x
2.6x
3% %
3/8
34
Baldwin & Lyyons
BWINB B
24.31
-18% %
10%
3533
n/m
5%
4%
24x
16x
.9x
4% %
5/4
35
* Canon
CAJ
49.22
-25% %
6%
65,7725
54,406
3%
4%
20x
16x
2.2x
0% %
-/-
36
Safety Insuraance
SAFT T
49.38
-31% %
1%
7433
n/m
3%
4%
14x
15x
1.1x
3% %
3/5
37
* Electrolux
ELUXY Y
50.00
-23% %
17%
7,8112
7,725
4%
4%
10x
10x
3.4x
0% %
-/-
38
Female Health
FHCO O
5.02
-13% %
48%
1399
136
4%
4%
21x
17x
9.0x
17% %
8/3
39
* Chemical Financial F
CHFC C
20.60
-9% %
22%
5655
n/m
4%
4%
17x
14x
1.3x
0% %
7/2
40
* China Mobbile
CHL
47.66
-7% %
15%
190,4430
144,734
4%
4%
12x
11x
2.5x
0% %
-/-
41
Electro Rent
ELRC C
15.94
-30% %
8%
3822
351
3%
4%
17x
16x
1.7x
17% %
3/3
42
Washington Trust T
WASH H
22.38
-25% %
3%
3622
n/m
4%
4%
13x
12x
1.8x
1% %
5/7
43
Credit Suissee
CS
47.63
-24% %
14%
56,187
n/m
3%
4%
10x
8x
2.2x
0% %
-/-
44
GFI Group
GFIG G
5.40
-19% %
30%
6566
n/m
4%
4%
19x
13x
3.2x
42% %
8/8
-24% %
31%
1,6113
1,505
4%
4%
20x
15x
4.7x
0% %
-/-
Proxxy
Y!
45
* Intersil
ISIL
12.97
Company website
SEC
Y!
* New additions aree highlighted.
Prrice Charts
Criiteria: ► Positiv ve net cash ► Positive P EPS esttimates for this F FY and next FY ► MV > $100 m million
© 2008-2011 by BeyondProxy LLC. All rights reserved.
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 163 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
DDeep Valuee: Lots of Reevenue, Low w Enterprisee Value C Companies that trade at low multiiples of net reven nue ▼ Movve To 52-W Week Low High
MV ($mn)
EV ($mn)
EV/ Sales
Est. P/E This Next FY FY
Price to Tangible Book
Insiders % Buys/ Own. Sells
Ticker
Price ($)
1
Ingram Microo
IM
20.39
-28%
3%
3,197
2,678
.08x
9x
8x
1.0x
0%
5/5
2
Eastman Koddak
EK
3.71
-6%
145%
998
619
.09x
n/m
n/m
n/m
0%
5/3
3
Tech Data
TECD
51.20
-32%
0%
2,387
2,204
.09x
12x
11x
1.2x
0%
1/5
4
AmerisourceBergen
ABC
37.79
-28%
0%
10,358
10,360
.13x
16x
14x
>9.9x
1%
10 / 4 2/2
Company
5
S World Fuel Services
INT
39.99
-42%
3%
2,764
2,356
.14x
18x
16x
3.5x
2%
6
Systemax
SYX
14.80
-23%
64%
543
545
.15x
11x
9x
1.6x
0%
1/-
7
Cardinal Heaalth
CAH
42.14
-30%
2%
14,739
16,061
.16x
16x
14x
>9.9x
0%
13 / 10
8
Office Depot
ODP
5.47
-39%
68%
1,516
1,924
.16x
n/m
91x
2.0x
1%
4/-
9
Sunoco
SUN
43.75
-41%
2%
5,275
6,219
.17x
22x
17x
1.7x
0%
6/2
10
Kelly Servicees
KELYA
22.74
-56%
1%
832
830
.17x
20x
14x
1.5x
2%
11 / 3
11
Insight Enterprises
NSIT
18.32
-33%
7%
848
817
.17x
10x
10x
1.8x
1%
10 / 8
12
SYNNEX
SNX
34.99
-35%
4%
1,270
1,557
.18x
9x
9x
1.5x
1%
6/6
13
McKesson
MCK
80.64
-28%
0%
20,504
21,353
.19x
16x
14x
>9.9x
0%
10 / 11
14
Barnes & Noble
BKS
18.61
-36%
33%
1,121
1,568
.23x
n/m
n/m
n/m
2%
9 / 10
15
* Delek US Holdings H
DK
10.65
-43%
15%
579
836
.23x
n/m
31x
1.3x
0%
1/1
16
Supervalu
SVU
8.78
-20%
104%
1,863
9,008
.24x
7x
7x
n/m
0%
1/-
17
BJ's Wholesaale Club
BJ
49.53
-32%
2%
2,705
2,649
.24x
20x
18x
2.4x
0%
2/-
18
Celestica
CLS
11.57
-36%
3%
2,254
1,548
.25x
-
-
1.6x
0%
-/-
19
Owens & Minnor
OMI
31.42
-18%
4%
1,990
2,040
.25x
15x
14x
3.4x
2%
14 / 12 4/5
20
Tesoro
TSO
24.15
-57%
7%
3,457
4,965
.25x
13x
11x
1.2x
0%
21
Flextronics
FLEX
8.42
-42%
1%
6,399
7,032
.25x
-
-
3.3x
0%
-/-
22
Brightpoint
CELL
12.84
-54%
3%
866
915
.25x
13x
11x
>9.9x
2%
16 / 14
23
Kroger
KR
23.10
-17%
5%
14,691
21,741
.27x
13x
12x
3.6x
0%
16 / 9
24
Valero Energgy
VLO
29.42
-47%
3%
16,658
22,342
.27x
11x
10x
1.1x
0%
9/9
25
Best Buy
BBY
33.04
-6%
48%
13,024
13,921
.28x
10x
9x
4.1x
0%
7/3
26
General Motoors
GM
36.51
-9%
8%
54,765
36,853
.28x
13x
9x
n/m
11%
22 / 11
27
IDT Corp.
IDT
26.47
-83%
14%
601
408
.29x
-
-
3.4x
15%
7/1
28
Administaff
ASF
29.45
-43%
3%
769
491
.29x
28x
19x
3.5x
3%
8/6
29
Fred's
FRED
14.17
-30%
2%
557
523
.29x
19x
16x
1.4x
6%
2/6
30
Tyson Foodss
TSN
18.63
-22%
10%
7,033
8,459
.29x
9x
9x
2.1x
1%
16 / 8
31
Manpower
MAN
67.63
-41%
3%
5,516
5,442
.29x
24x
17x
5.2x
1%
11 / 5
32
Kindred Heallthcare
KND
25.14
-54%
2%
993
1,264
.29x
15x
14x
1.4x
2%
12 / 12
33
* Coca-Cola FEMSA
KOF
76.00
-20%
12%
2,063
2,556
.29x
18x
15x
.4x
0%
-/-
34
Rite Aid
RAD
1.39
-38%
27%
1,237
7,524
.30x
n/m
n/m
n/m
1%
-/4
35
Tutor Perini
TPC
25.16
-38%
1%
1,185
1,073
.30x
11x
11x
1.9x
29%
2/3
36
Avnet
AVT
36.97
-39%
1%
5,618
6,886
.30x
9x
9x
2.2x
0%
17 / 15
37
Arrow Electroonics
ARW
42.10
-48%
2%
4,834
5,730
.31x
9x
8x
2.5x
0%
7/7
38
Sears Holdings
SHLD
93.03
-36%
35%
10,234
13,481
.31x
72x
82x
2.7x
0%
1/3
39
Western Refiining
WNR
16.94
-76%
8%
1,496
2,512
.31x
>99x
12x
2.4x
39%
6/2
40
Sonic Automotive
SAH
14.80
-45%
1%
781
2,099
.32x
16x
12x
n/m
1%
3/3
41
Safeway
SWY
22.39
-16%
21%
8,347
13,006
.32x
15x
13x
1.9x
1%
9 / 10
42
Sanmina-SCI
SANM
16.77
-47%
21%
1,344
2,090
.32x
9x
7x
1.9x
2%
8/7
43
EMCOR Group
EME
32.34
-32%
1%
2,149
1,658
.32x
18x
15x
4.3x
2%
12 / 7
44
Centene
CNC
30.37
-42%
1%
1,571
1,446
.33x
15x
13x
3.2x
6%
16 / 11
45
* Bunge
BG
74.24
-39%
1%
10,757
15,021
.33x
13x
11x
.9x
0%
-/-
Company website
SEC
Y!
Proxy
Y!
* New additions aree highlighted.
Price Charts
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 164 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
DDeep Valuee: Neglectedd Gross Prof ofiteers C Companies that trade at low multiiples of gross pro ofit ▼ Mo ove To 522-Week Low w High
EV ($mn)
Est. P/E This Next FY FY
Price/ Tang. Book
Inssiders % Buys/ Own. Sells
Tickeer
Price ($)
1
Stewart Information
STC C
11.50
-32% %
30%
211
130
.1x
.1x
.1xx
26x
9x
1.0x
0%
1/-
2
Winn-Dixie Stores S
WINN N
6.97
-15% %
99%
389
323
.0x
.2x
n/m m
n/m
n/m
.6x
2%
19 / 13
Company
MV ($mn))
E Enterprise Value / Gross Saless Profit EBITT
3
Five Star Quaality
FVE E
6.72
-60% %
13%
240
240
.2x
.2x
11.55x
11x
10x
1.7x
2%
5/-
4
WellCare
WCG G
38.45
-42% %
2%
1,6355
275
.1x
.3x
35.77x
14x
12x
2.3x
1%
8 / 10
5
* Kindred Heealthcare
KND D
25.14
-54% %
2%
993
1,264
.3x
.3x
13.22x
15x
14x
1.4x
2%
12 / 12
6
Eastman Koddak
EK
3.71
-6%
145%
998
619
.1x
.3x
3.4xx
n/m
n/m
n/m
0%
5/3
7
Charming Shhoppes
CHRS S
3.48
-18% %
99%
402
437
.2x
.4x
n/m m
n/m
>99x
1.7x
0%
3/-
8
Blyth
BTH H
34.25
-19% %
75%
282
276
.3x
.5x
5.2xx
12x
12x
1.3x
0%
-/1
9
E.W. Scrippss
SSP P
9.56
-30% %
23%
554
361
.5x
.6x
19.88x
14x
38x
1.1x
0%
3/8
10
* Village Supper Market
VLGE EA
31.46
-23% %
8%
222
196
.2x
.6x
4.4xx
-
-
1.1x
5%
3/4
11
Office Depot
ODP P
5.47
-39% %
68%
1,5166
1,924
.2x
.6x
n/m m
n/m
91x
2.0x
1%
4/-
12
Humana
HUM M
61.44
-30% %
5%
10,3422
3,874
.1x
.6x
2.1xx
10x
9x
2.6x
1%
6/6
13
Imation
IMN
11.25
-25% %
12%
435
130
.1x
.6x
n/m m
n/m
40x
.9x
1%
4/2
14
* Hudson Higghland
HHGP P
6.46
-55% %
9%
208
180
.2x
.6x
n/m m
15x
10x
2.2x
2%
6/6
15
MedCath
MDTH H
13.77
-51% %
7%
280
189
.5x
.6x
n/m m
81x
>99x
.9x
2%
-/5
16
* Coca-Cola FEMSA
KOF F
76.00
-20% %
12%
2,0633
2,556
.3x
.6x
2.0xx
18x
15x
.4x
0%
-/-
17
* Natuzzi
NTZ Z
4.53
-42% %
31%
249
182
.2x
.6x
17.1 x
n/m
38x
.5x
0%
-/-
18
Haverty Furnniture
HVT T
12.93
-26% %
40%
283
225
.4x
.7x
20.44x
46x
18x
1.1x
2%
1/3 6/6
19
American Equity
AELL
13.85
-46% %
1%
812
744
.6x
.7x
.6xx
8x
7x
.8x
4%
20
Coldwater Crreek
CWTR R
3.03
-11% %
189%
280
241
.2x
.7x
n/m m
n/m
n/m
1.2x
0%
-/-
21
Molina Healthhcare
MOH H
34.79
-40% %
2%
1,0522
465
.1x
.7x
4.4xx
16x
14x
2.6x
3%
4/7
22
Corinthian Coolleges
COCO O
5.28
-26% %
266%
447
638
.3x
.8x
130.22x
6x
11x
2.8x
1%
19 / 3
23
Gleacher & Co. C
GLCH H
1.91
-21% %
149%
251
211
.7x
.8x
n/m m
48x
9x
1.1x
12%
-/3
24
Hot Topic
HOTT T
5.59
-18% %
78%
249
191
.3x
.8x
956.00x
n/m
40x
1.1x
0%
2/-
25
Liz Claibornee
LIZ
4.99
-22% %
95%
472
1,027
.4x
.8x
n/m m
n/m
9x
n/m
1%
9/-
26
Christopher & Banks
CBK K
6.23
-19% %
86%
222
138
.3x
.8x
n/m m
n/m
n/m
1.2x
2%
3/5
27
* Lawson Products
LAWS S
24.35
-48% %
12%
208
167
.5x
.9x
9.9xx
-
-
1.8x
0%
-/2
28
RadioShack
RSH H
15.70
-5%
53%
1,7877
1,745
.4x
.9x
4.3xx
9x
9x
2.1x
0%
2/3
29
Barnes & Noble
BKS S
18.61
-36% %
33%
1,121
1,568
.2x
.9x
n/m m
n/m
n/m
n/m
2%
9 / 10
30
Retail Venturres
RVI
17.62
-59% %
6%
886
704
.4x
.9x
4.4xx
>99x
-
4.4x
0%
-/-
31
Core-Mark
CORE E
34.18
-25% %
9%
372
343
.0x
.9x
9.2xx
16x
12x
1.1x
3%
14 / 8
32
Stein Mart
SMRT T
8.28
-29% %
32%
360
280
.2x
.9x
6.5xx
9x
12x
1.4x
2%
14 / 6
33
Celadon Group
CGI
16.07
-33% %
5%
361
369
.7x
.9x
17.22x
26x
17x
2.5x
8%
8/4
34
Brown Shoe
S BWS
15.37
-33% %
30%
674
908
.4x
.9x
11.99x
16x
11x
2.0x
1%
1/4
35
Spartan Storees
SPTN N
15.58
-18% %
14%
353
503
.2x
.9x
8.3xx
12x
11x
7.2x
0%
2/2
36
Kenneth Colee
KCP P
13.92
-23% %
58%
254
184
.4x
.9x
n/m m
25x
18x
1.8x
0%
-/-
37
Lincoln Educcational
LINC C
15.88
-39% %
78%
352
375
.6x
.9x
3.1xx
6x
7x
3.2x
4%
4/8
38
PC Connectioon
PCCC C
9.38
-39% %
6%
252
219
.1x
1.0x
5.7xx
10x
9x
1.2x
2%
2/3
39
Skechers
SKX X
21.63
-12% %
108%
1,0300
879
.4x
1.0x
4.5xx
16x
10x
1.1x
2%
4/6
40
* Kimball
KBALLB
7.59
-37% %
14%
207
176
.1x
1.0x
117.55x
-
-
.6x
1%
6/1
Proxy
Y!
41 42 43
No other companies had ennterprise value to grooss profit of less thann 1x.
44 45
Company website
* New additions aree highlighted.
SEC
Y!
Pricce Charts
Criiteria: ► EV not more than trailing gross profit ► MV not more than 2x gross profit ► MV > $2 200 million
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 165 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
AActivist Targ rgets: Potenntial Sales, Liquidationns or Recaps ps C Companies that may m unlock value e through a corpo orate event ▼ Mo ove To 522-Week Low High
EV ($mn)
Net Cash (% of MV)
NCAV (% of MV)
EV// Salees
Next FY P/E
Insiders % Buys/ Own. Sells
Tickeer
Price ($)
1
Qiao Xing Moobile
QXM M
4.79
-57% %
24%
228
(79)
.6xx
134%
171%
n/m m
-
0%
2
Qiao Xing Unniversal
XING G
2.52
-46% %
56%
232
(182)
.5xx
178%
141%
n/m m
-
0%
-/-
3
Audiovox
VOXX X
8.26
-25% %
18%
189
142
.7xx
25%
118%
.2xx
-
8%
10 / 10
4
Maxygen
MAXY Y
4.09
-24% %
6%
123
(30)
.8xx
124%
116%
n/m m
-
0%
1/-
5
Crexus Invesstment
CXS S
13.25
-11% %
6%
240
(31)
.9xx
113%
112%
n/m m
9x
0%
-/-
6
Myriad Pharm ma
MYRX X
3.95
-10% %
33%
101
(13)
.7xx
113%
110%
n/m m
n/m
1%
5/-/-
Company
MV ($mn)
Price to Tangibble Boook
-/-
7
Exceed Company
EDS S
8.00
-24% %
31%
157
62
.7xx
61%
110%
.1xx
4x
0%
8
Alvarion
ALVR R
2.04
-13% %
102%
115
24
.9xx
79%
100%
.1xx
-
0%
-/-
9
Sycamore Neetworks
SCMR R
22.17
-27% %
55%
633
38
1.0xx
94%
93%
.6xx
n/m
0%
1/-
10
Tuesday Morrning
TUES S
4.55
-23% %
93%
196
179
.7xx
9%
93%
.2xx
9x
2%
5/5
11
Sprott Physiccal Gold
PHYS S
12.36
-22% %
4%
1,197
115
1.1xx
90%
90%
n/m m
-
0%
-/-
12
Ingram Microo
IM
20.39
-28% %
3%
3,197
2,678
1.0xx
16%
86%
.1xx
8x
0%
5/5
13
Imation
IMN
11.25
-25% %
12%
435
130
.9xx
70%
85%
.1xx
40x
1%
4/2
14
Flexsteel Industries
FLXS S
15.85
-36% %
24%
106
99
.9xx
7%
81%
.3xx
-
16%
10 / 4
15
Movado
MOV V
14.88
-36% %
15%
368
305
1.0xx
17%
80%
.8xx
39x
4%
7/8
16
* China Agrittech
CAGC C
8.14
-11% %
278%
169
123
1.2xx
27%
80%
1.2xx
8x
2%
-/2
17
FormFactor
FORM M
9.06
-24% %
132%
460
112
1.1xx
76%
79%
.6xx
n/m
0%
1/1
18
Rimage
RIMG G
14.64
-4%
25%
140
33
1.1xx
76%
78%
.4xx
20x
0%
4/-
19
Xyratex
XRTX X
13.17
-20% %
55%
385
295
1.1xx
24%
77%
.2xx
5x
0%
-/-
20
PC Connectioon
PCCC C
9.38
-39% %
6%
252
219
1.2xx
13%
77%
.1xx
9x
2%
2/3
21
* Kimball
KBALB
7.59
-37% %
14%
207
176
.6xx
15%
77%
.1xx
-
1%
6/1
22
Colony Finanncial
CLNY Y
21.01
-21% %
1%
365
88
1.3xx
76%
76%
4.7xx
12x
0%
4/-
23
InfoSpace
INSP P
8.33
-21% %
42%
301
47
1.3xx
84%
76%
.2xx
22x
1%
3/9
24
* Telestone Tech T
TSTC C
8.63
-18% %
157%
106
105
1.4xx
1%
72%
1.0xx
4x
0%
-/-
25
Benchmark Electron. E
BHE E
19.86
-30% %
15%
1,210
875
1.1xx
28%
71%
.4xx
12x
1%
3/5
26
QLT
QLTI
6.97
-34% %
24%
356
158
.9xx
56%
70%
3.5xx
-
1%
3/-
27
Tech Data
TECD D
51.20
-32% %
0%
2,387
2,204
1.2xx
8%
70%
.1xx
11x
0%
1/5
28
ModusLink
MLNK K
6.87
-16% %
62%
300
154
1.1xx
49%
68%
.2xx
-
2%
12 / 5
29
Callaway Golf
ELY
8.14
-29% %
25%
524
469
1.0xx
10%
68%
.5xx
21x
1%
8/6
30
M PennyMac Mortgage
PMT T
18.17
-14% %
4%
479
(55)
1.5xx
111%
67%
n/m m
7x
0%
1/1
31
Exar
EXAR R
6.33
-15% %
23%
282
95
1.2xx
66%
67%
.6xx
n/m
1%
8/4
32
Cutera
CUTR R
9.60
-28% %
25%
131
41
1.4xx
69%
67%
.8xx
n/m
0%
-/-
33
* Cytokineticcs
CYTK K
1.52
-3%
146%
100
29
1.4xx
71%
66%
11.00x
n/m
0%
-/-
34
Nam Tai Elecctronics
NTE
7.65
-47% %
1%
343
124
1.1xx
64%
65%
.3xx
19x
0%
-/-
35
* China Fire
CFSG G
5.93
-5%
178%
164
134
1.3xx
18%
65%
1.6xx
6x
0%
-/-
36
BigBand Netw works
BBND D
2.62
-6%
39%
181
38
1.4xx
79%
65%
.3xx
n/m
1%
12 / 8
37
RTI Biologicss
RTIX X
2.71
-25% %
69%
149
121
.9xx
18%
64%
.7xx
15x
0%
3/1
38
Force Protecction
FRPT T
5.63
-31% %
20%
396
290
1.2xx
27%
64%
.4xx
15x
1%
4/3
39
Universal Traavel
UTA A
7.03
-54% %
55%
140
75
1.5xx
46%
64%
.5xx
-
0%
1/-
40
West Marine
WMAR
12.75
-34% %
7%
288
250
1.2xx
13%
63%
.4xx
14x
0%
2/2
41
Hardinge
HDNG G
11.55
-36% %
1%
134
108
.9xx
19%
63%
.4xx
-
2%
6/1
42
Cogo Group
COGO O
8.93
-34% %
7%
316
254
1.6xx
19%
63%
.7xx
10x
0%
-/-
43
* G. Willi-Foood
WILC C
7.44
-30% %
2%
101
55
1.3xx
45%
62%
.6xx
-
0%
-/-
44
TomoTherappy
TOMO O
3.73
-31% %
12%
209
57
1.3xx
73%
62%
.3xx
n/m
7%
14 / 5
45
* Richardsonn Electron.
RELLL
13.03
-43% %
2%
234
219
1.5xx
6%
61%
.6xx
47x
0%
7/6
Company website
SEC
Y!
Proxy
Y!
* New additions aree highlighted.
Pricce Charts
Criiteria: ► Tang. book > 50% of MV M ► ST assetts - liabilities > 50 0% of MV ► Ne et cash ► MV > $100mn
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 166 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
TThis Monthh’s Top 100 Web Linkks A Selection of Our Favorite Freely F Accessiible Internet Resources R
C Click on the lin nk next to each title, or type th he Web addresss into your Weeb browser:
Financcial Crisis Innquiry Com mmission Reeport and Reesources
http:///www.fcic.govv
Bill Grross’s Invesstment Outllook: “Devil’s Bargainn”
http:///bit.ly/dGcWW WP
Jeremyy Grantham m’s Letter: “Pavlov’s “ Bulls” B
http:///bit.ly/gy5dRL L
Consueelo Mack Innterview wiith Chuck Rooyce
http:///bit.ly/hY1KJb b
Charlie Rose Inteerview with Chris Andeerson of TED D
http:///bit.ly/g93Xre
Notes from Meeting with Chharlie Mungger
http:///bit.ly/h7XEQff
Michael Maubousssin: “The Real R Role off Dividendss…”
http:///bit.ly/gnRYqH H
Ravi Nagarajan N on o Nokia’s “Burning Platform” P
http:///bit.ly/fk3zc1
Notes from Howaard Marks Presentatio P on at UCLA
http:///scr.bi/gkAJNb
Haymaan Letter: “The “ Cognitiive Dissonaance of It Alll”
http:///scr.bi/eW9IFxx
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February 28, 2011 – PPage 167 of 170
Value-oriented Eqquity Investment Ideas for Sophisticateed Investors
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