home entertainment
Investigacion de diseNo 2011 what da forck* research
Home Entertainment Timeline 1962 SatelliteTV 1940 TV
1951 Color
1998 FlatTV
TV 1972 Videogame
Creative Activities Making own amusement
1980 Home
2005 Internet
TV 2010 3DTV
theater
Console
1970 Sound
systems
1890 Gramophone
2006 Motion
1977 Video
sensing videogame
Rental
Audio Video Interaction Activity Setting 1900 Radio 2000s+
Reading Singing Dancing Playing Drawing/painting Story telling etc...
1971 Karaoke
1964 Cassette
1970s VHS
Connectivity Multicontrol Wirelessness Product sync
1991
WWW
1997 DVD
1980 CD
2005 Blu
ray
Home activity Home electronics Long ago
1890
1950
1970
1990
2011
video player
TV image proyector
e-reader
radio hi-ďŹ music
movies TV streaming
screens videogame console
audio player
music
sounds
speakers
karaoke
internet
video games
Audio
environment
e-paper sports
Visual
cook tools
write
imagine
+
Activity
Interaction
rs
sing
i
material
pa
Person
ss i
ve
watch
individu
al
listen
fun
experience
tive
c colle
communication
union
e-reader friends family
computer videogame console
tablets
shared experiences
PC
internet TV
data
feedback
relaxation gathering
space
lightning
he
play learn
Tec
user journey
Home Entertainment
ot
active s/
games
story telling
Setting
y
log o n h
mood
arrangement
ucts
read dance
Home?
w/
Universe x
furniture
comfort
w/prod
Home Entertainment Map
Universe y
Intelligent Home Entertainment* Content providers
Hardware manufacturers Intelligent CE Devices
Intelligent user navigation
own content just use other
Intelligent Distribution
special interest content
Want
Increasing programme choise
content as social currency
control -what & when they watch picture quality -manage simplicity advertising -control kids
Struggle
Consmers Concept of PVR
Setting up a home network
Changing standads and falling prices for AVIT equipment
Numbers of devices and remotes
ntent protection / Digita l i z a of co t ion ent o fc vem o n t pro e n m t /i
Broadcasters
Intelligent Content
in compres s i on
d on an distrib i t ut ea r i c
Consmers wants/needs
t en em
speeds / Fall of stora h t i w ge c nd a b ost e s s/ a e r im Inc pr ov / n o
Intelligent Storage
Telcos
Platform operators
*Map made by Roberto Kauffman for Sony Europe (2005)
TECNOLOGÍAS ACTUALES Y EMERGENTES
Michell Zappa Trabaja actualmente en Inglaterra y es un diseñador de Stockolmo, Suecia.. Ha pasado la mayoría de su tiempo en Sao Paulo y Amsterdam. Tiene un máster en comunicación social y ha trabajo en varias agencias de publicidad en donde predice diversas tendencias. Su principal interés radica en el saber de la tecnología a futuro y cómo la sociedad se adapta a estos cambios rápidamente.
MEGATENDENCIAS Y TENDENCIAS TIME ZONES ZONE 1: 2010-2015 ZONE 2: 2015-2020 ZONE 3: 2020-2025
TRENDS & TECHNOLOGY TIMELINE 2010+
Personal responsibility
A roadmap for the exploration of current & future trends (+ some predictions to stir things up. More at nowandnext.com) Convergence of healthcare and financial planning
Letter writing
Contents of British Library available on a postage stamp-sized chip
ZONE 5: 2035-2050 Notes on time travel This map is a broad representation of some of the trends and technologies currently visible. Improvement works are carried out at weekends and travellers should check to see whether lines are still operable before commencing any journeys. Helpful suggestions concerning new routes and excursions are always welcome. If you wish to travel outside of Zone 1 you are advised to bring comfy shoes and a camera. Travellers are also advised to bring their own supplies of food and water although weapons are unnecessary if you keep to well trodden paths. Also note that travel into Zone 5 is not available for people aged over 75 years of age.
*Watson, Richars. “What´s Next.com”. A brief history of the next 50 yeats. Future Files
A3 and A2 Prints of this map Full colour prints of this map are available to anyone that asks nicely. A small charge is levied to cover print and postage costs only. Contact< richard@nowandnext.com >stating whether you’d like A3 or A2 size and saying which country the map is to be delivered to. Delivery is available to anywhere in the world. Atternatively, just print this out yourself ( A3 minimum recommended )
Sourced
Material for this map has been soured from a number of publications including Future Files and What’s Next
www.futuretrendsbook.com www.nowandnext.com
Acknowledgements This map was conceived and created by Richard Watson at Nowandnext.com with some help from Benjamin Frazer at Snap. Also thanks to Oliver Freeman, Mike Jackson and Scott Martin.
Digital cash widely embedded in human body
Single global e-currency
Most people have multiple presences
Global population hits 9 billion
Brain drain from hedge funds to scientific R&D (energy #1 priority)
Hunger for shared experiences
Growth of ‘Tech-No’ movement
Baby licences
Animals suing humans
Online funerals
Desire for control
Cheques
Culture of immediacy
Search for meaning (Mondays to Fridays only)
Digital celebrities
Pastism Bio-mimicry
Nostalgia
e-voting in supermarkets
Folk-art revival
Children become luxury objects Turkey, Iran and Mexico Disintegration of EU become key powers
Increased immigration to solve skills crisis
Resurgence of hobbies & craft Widespread outbreaks of panic Virtual protests Growth of G2 Face recognition doors
Expecting less
Rising rage
First child born in space
Collapse of free trade 1/3 of all military vehicles now unmanned
Government PR budgets exceed military spending
Pulse bombs
Function based tariffs for electricity
Revival of far-right politics
2. Geopolitics 3. Energy & raw materials
Widespread use of nano-materials
Airborne networks
Power shift Eastwards
1. Society
People able to record every event from birth to death
Shape shifting materials Molecular machines Fully sensory internet Cosmetic brain Increasing influence of World’s first thorium reactor surgery 10-mile diets oil states on US politics Calorie taxes Food passports Convenience Well-being Provenance Traceability Regionality Green politics opens in India Energy harvesting buildings Biotechnology Epidemic of new Indulgence Authenticity Growth of virtual communities Open source intelligence gathering Virtual water mental disorders Genetic prophesy at birth Middle Class unrest Rise of N11 countries linked to uncensored Rising levels of autocracy Intelligent vending machines Globalisation unravelling Lunar dimming streetlights Whole life financial planning linked use of digital devices Growth of Business sustainability to whole family model Growth of state control Carbon trading Government Robotics micro-insurance largest determinant of Local energy transmission networks e-services First Internet court Artificial eyes stock price Men behaving like women Emergence of Gross National Meltdown of global Shopping 2.0 Happiness metrics financial system Emergence of Growth of bartering Womb based therapy Online communities Gross National Genetically Customer service avatars start physical Happiness enhanced pets Speech recognition become common place RFID Redefinition of health to Small indulgences Third spaces communities metrics Micro-finance 75-year mortgages Pre-pay currency cards Monolines include happiness/well-being Shift to Negawatts Clean coal Rare earths Last CD is Authenticity Carbon chaos local EDLP Widespread cuts in Figurative published trade public services revolution in the Paper statements & bills e-ink comes Face recognition Re-regulation Free-tailing Half the world now arts as Increase in Investment in renewable energy Growth of outsourcing Retirement Brain gyms of age living under double neoclassicism pigouvian taxes to Africa Conspicuous non-consumption Bionic Increasing longevity A graphic novel Acute labour digit inflation returns women behaving like men Mercantilism Olympics wins the Booker shortages in Infrastructure under-investment Networked risk Broader definitions of health Prize aged-care sector Synthetic biology Move to global pricing Peak landfill Nuclear power renaissance Home-based health Cities painted Just-in-time Seasonality of consumer goods Life story labelling white to Obesity shopping Too much choice (driven by shopbots) Blurring of sectors Sensory experiences Medical tourism increase reflectivity Consumer e-health Pensions funding crisis
Ageing
4. Science & technology 5. Healthcare 6. Retail & leisure 7. Economy 8. Environment 9. Financial se
Urbanisation
Disappearance of checkouts
Device convergence Virtual libraries Blurring of scientific disciplines
Average lifespan 100 years
Widespread use of brain scans in job interviews
Full concentration
Near extinction of quality journalism spawns philanthropic funding
Single person households
Digital diets
Basic forms of AI Home swap holidays
Machines that can judge emotional state of user
Online video Physical newspapers become luxury items
Health & safety hysteria
Home/work convergence
‘Spinning disk’ memory devices
Empathy
Personalisation
Mind control toys Death of distance
Unexpected increase in fertility rates
25% of company HQs now virtual
Basic forms of AI
Digital mirrors High Street Internet addiction clinic
Localism
Increasing interest rates
Pets outnumber people globally Robot population surpasses human population
Globalisation
Price polarisation (High / Low )
Local shopping
Robocops in shopping malls
Devices re-programming themselves in light of experience
Tightening security Micro-blogging
Constant digital Growth in passenger numbers distraction Domestic tourism Voluntourism
Malicious intent detectors Growth of security algorithms
Stored value cards
Micro-power generation Telemedicine
Industries consolidating globally
Micro-finance
Use of fake information as a weapon Information pandemics
Volatility
P2P lending Mobile payments
Cloud storage Increasing regulation & compliance
T.I.M
Prediction markets Telepresence Online medical records Green IT
Virtual currencies
Flooding Bio-simulations
Growth of private currencies
Identity theft
Rising economc protectionism
Personal nooks
Payments to enter most cities by private vehicle
Shift to knowledge intensive industries
Individualism Droughts Energy storage
Growth of digital narcissism
Wilder weather
User generated content
Shorter formats
12.
Pilotless airliners
13. Home & family
Fully immersive gaming
Home/street level domestic waste processing
30% of all books now digital
All ads now personalised All televised sport now short format
Real-time car insurance
Emergence of green nationalism e-books
First moon hotel
Brain holidays
Believers versus heretics
User filtering
11.
Driverless lorries
Peak copper
Large screens everywhere
Face recognition doors
Quiet paint
* Low probability/high impact events that could derail any of the above trends and predictions
Commodity price spikes Raw materials shortages � Mass migration of population � Nuclear terrorism
Sustainability
Electricity shortages Rapid increase in cyber crime � Critical infrastructure attack � Rogue stakeholder
Green energy bubble Genetic terrorism � Collapse of US dollar � Global supply chain disruption
Environmental change
10. Food & drink
Plastic bridges
Peak Uranium
Metabolomics
Services outsourcing
Victim culture
Contactless payments
Digitalisation
Islamic finance
Sense of entitlement
Data security
Loneliness
Decline in real wages Debt Stress
Robotic surgery
Binge drinking
iPills
Modular spaces
Debt
Depression
Healthcare rationing Simplicity Unsupervised adults
Web 2.0 Societal feminisation
Home as refuge
Domestic energy dashboards
Online micro-payments
Anxiety
Declining fertility Urban/rural divide
Seabed mining
Face recognition rear view Fuel-cell cars Hypersonic mirrors (linked to ignition) airliners 4 billion mobile phone subscribers Intelligent packaging 3-D teleconferences Medical tourism Collapse of Fair trade Bio-fuel backlash Wireless re-charge Chinese banking Hybrid fuels Low-cost competition Shifting centres of economic activity Cyber-pet vets Return of food inflation and food riots Video wallpaper Aged care robots system Wind power Holographic storage Fractional ownership Outsourcing backlash Space tourism Green cities Urban car sharing Companies Laboratory grown meat Robotic insects for Slow food re-think Consumer e-health Cautious optimism in supermarkets Modesty Dining Rooms crop pollination OHS&E Computers with Electricity shortages Verbal search Increasing inflation 2-speed economies Increasing complexity after CHIME liquidity Comfort foods Green buildings moving parts Fragrance cartridges workplace Ocean dead zones Sustainable tourism in mobiles Lunar dimming streetlights stress Affective computing claims Global hospital brands Water labelling Ubiquitous computing Nano-solar End of low-cost inputs All vehicles fitted with GPS Oil at $200 Eco-cynics Gen X start to outlive their offspring a barrel Most people have 2+ careers 80% of global energy requirements still met by oil/coal/gas Facebook vacations Fuel-cell phones Holidays at home packages (meet your online friends in person) Skills shortages bite Human organ farms Augmented reality Phone spam Wearable computers contact lenses Solar energy generating windows Resources increasingly acquired on a no questions asked basis Open source explodes with global standard for Sleep hotels Communication free resorts Augmented reality windscreens royalty payments Global sensor network DNA Male birth control pill Urban (vertical) farming computing Focus on hardware reduces as Digital nomads Creative industries Generational conflict in the workplace Increasing automation Industrial repatriation Rise of the vegetarians Creation of new services more distributed and Plastic bones become dominant Water labelling arable lands as planet interoperable contributors to Variable road-pricing dependent on time of day/traffic volume of all products Second asset Artificial livers Declining water quality warms up Quantum computing global GDP bubble Oceanic thermal converters Hydrogen fuel stations Peak water Genetic diets No more anonymous email addresses All babies implanted with GPS & ID chips Vehicles bought for technology upgrades rather than model changes (one email address per person) Global migration drift to warming parts of Privacy 80% of global population now obese the northern hemisphere Fusion reactors Average car now 50% of weight of 2010 model equivalent Food allergies eliminated Individual energy/carbon monitoring leads to allowances Micro-scale health-bots Cities laced with small vehicle lanes separate from road system Humility and/or tiered costing based on system akin to personal Space solar power Scarcity of hydrocarbon service Self-repairing roads First moon mine Meditation/holistic services bundled with medical procedures Self-driving cars / fuel stations Intimacy Spray on surgical gloves Russia Creation of Department of alcohol, firearms, soft drinks and confectionary demographically ) ( DNA repair Optimism about the future (mandatory health warnings on all alcohol, junk food and candy) Stringent laws requiring high levels of recyclability in all products Bio-diversity Childcare robots
Global risks* This map is published under a creative Commons 2.5 Share-A-Like licence. This basically means that you can do whatever you like with this map just so long as you say where it came from.
Prison ships
First human clone
Digital cash widely embedded in clothing
Compulsory paternity tests
Printable TV screens Invisibility cloaks
Wealth asylum seekers
ZONE 4: 2025-2035
People renting dreams
Inheritance
LEGEND
Community theatre in the round takes off (again)
Gesture-based computing
US/China conflict Israel/Iran conflict � Bisphenol A link to cancer � Geographical expansion of Russia
Global pandemic Conflict with North Korea � Political disintegration of Saudi Arabia � Systemic failure of financial system
Middle class revolution Collapse of China � Mobile phone link to cancer � Credit Default Swaps
Mega trend Trend Prediction Dangerous currents Poor visibility High-speed link Partial ruin
Major nano-tech accident Space weather disruption to comms � Aliens visit earth � Return of the Messiah
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NECESIDAD DE ANCLAJE Expresa la necesidad de definir y afirmar la propia identidad, de diferenciarse y de construirse. La sociedad globalizada e indiferenciada, la crisis de la representatividad de las instituciones, la pérdida de certezas y seguridades espirituales producen un vacío que se contrarresta enfatizando la responsabilidad individual en esta creación. La necesidad de anclaje se refleja en tendencias como la búsqueda y construcción de la propia identidad y también en el repliegue que lleva al individualismo extremo.
PENSAMIENTO EN RED Cualquier herramienta o soporte que permite la comunicación entre personas sin la necesidad de verse vara cara, el pensamiento en red fue evolucionando el encontrar hitos en la historia como las comunicaciones. La sociedad actual vive desplazando los límites de injerencia y alcance sobre los temas que le competen, los fenómenos que la afectan y el poder de actuar frente ante diversos acontecimientos mundiales que pueden ser vividos como locales. La globalización refuerza la interdependencia social y cultural y también la idea de vivid en la red.
URBANISMO Debido a que las poblaciones que vivían zonas rurales están pasando a vivir a las zonas urbanas, la población en las ciudades ha incrementado de manera exagerada limitando los espacios de vida en la ciudad. Las distancias a recorrer son muy largas y el tráfico es exagerado. De ahí nace el concepto de urbanización. Urbanismo pretende estudiar las ciudades desde una perspectiva holística y busca ordenar los sistemas. Es la forma en el que los edificios y otras estructuras de las poblaciones se organizan o la agregación y forma de estar distribuidas las poblaciones en núcleos mayores.
GLOBALIZACIÓN Desarrollo de mercados, comercio, etcétera, entre muchas naciones. Genera facilidad de comunicación, interacción, experiencias, conocimientos, étc.
CAMBIOS AMBIENTALES Debido a los cambios ambientales producidos por el exceso de contaminación provocada por los humanos y la industrialización, se han generado un sin número de cambios ambientales que han afectado en gran manera a los sistemas naturales, fauna y a los mismos humanos. Se considera una megatendencia pues ahora muchas personas se preocupan por los cambios ambientales, se hace una nueva ideología en la que las personas toman en cuenta elementos y actividades que no dañen más el medio ambiente. Los resguardos de personas en cuanTo a
CLASIFICACIÓN MEGATENDENCIAS CLASIFICACIONES Componentes Actuales
Electrónicos
CLASIFICACIONES MEGATENDENCIAS CLASIFICACIÓN Actuales Sofá / sillones
ESTETICA
Muebles decortivos
ESTRUCTURAL
Estante Base / montaje
GENERAL
Iluminación
Paneles acústicos
ILUMINACION
Montaje de pared
Difusor de sonido
GENERAL
Control remoto
Mando de control
CONEXIONES
Aplicaciones
Dispositivos y mecanismos variados
INVESTIGACIÓN DE CAMPO PREGUNTAS ¿Qué acostumbras hacer en tu tiempo libre? ¿Qué actividades realizan en tu familia para entretenerse? Menciona los 5 dispositivos electrónicos con los que más interactúas en tu hogar. ¿Qué tipo de actividades realizarías si no tuvieras Internet en tu casa? ¿Qué intereses personales, te ayuda a satisfacer la tecnología que posees actualmente? Qué actividades llevas a cabo sin ayuda de la tecnología? ¿Cómo crees que estas actividades puedan mejorar con la tecnología?
ANÁLISIS DE ENCUESTAS La falta de dispositivos que amplíen el rango de interacción entre diferentes individuos, al momento de que alguien toca un instrumento musical. La necesidad de implementar tecnologías que magnifiquen la experiencia al preparar y consumir los alimentos. La gran dependencia por los dispositivos móviles, incluso dentro del hogar. La computadora como medio para buscar entretenimiento. La fuerte presencia de la televisión en las tareas realizadas durante tiempos libres. Los dispositivos reproductores de música, como aislantes familiares y sociales.
GRÁFICAMENTE 3 APARATOS + USADOS 100% Computadora
25
91% Celular
20
86% TV
15 10
64%
MP3
64%
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¿Qué tipo de actividades realizarías si no tuvieras internet en tu casa? “...estar más con mi familia, así no estaría tanto tiempo en mi cuarto”
BRIEF
Diseñar un Producto, servicio o sistema que produzca un entretenimiento activo, (tomando en cuenta actividades que involucran habilidad e intelecto) que permita encontrar intereses y habilidades, (muchas veces inconcientes), vivirlos y enriquecerlos con el fin de poder identificar las pasiones del usuario. Es decir se busca generar un tiempo y espacio en el cual el usuario pueda hacer lo que le realmente le gusta y ser el mismo. Se busca además considerar que lo que se haga sea fácil de instalar, y con opción de movilidad integrando las tecnologías existentes y emergentes.