Brockbank Political Report

Brockbank Political Report: A Look at Next Year's March and November Local Elections and the 2026 Statewide Elections

Greg Brockbank

Most of Marin’s nonpartisan elections previously held for decades in odd-numbered years, were forced to move to even-numbered years (Presidential and gubernatorial years) because the turnout was so much higher in even-numbered years. In effect, Marin and some other counties were punished for having the first or second-highest voter turnout statewide in recent decades in presidential elections (89-91% turnout) since now both nonpartisan and partisan races are held in even-numbered years to “increase the turnout” for nonpartisan elections. There is concern that some voters won’t vote in the nonpartisan elections because they can only think about the presidential and other partisan races. Other voters will be annoyed about the ballot’s magnitude.

Too many people, including political junkies, are wringing their hands about how huge the elections next year are going to be. Over 90% of the approximately 300 local nonpartisan elections happen in November (rather than June/March) every two years These elections include city and town councils, school districts, special districts, and semi-independent political bodies.

In March 2024, Diane Feinstein's US Senate seat is up. In addition, there are about 40 Marin Democratic Central Committee seat elections in presidential years. These Central Committee seats are probably Marin’s least-known elected officials. They’re rarely contested.

The approximately 40 Central Committee seats (rarely on the ballot, and partisan) comprise 2/3 of the 61 potential seats at stake in all the March elections. After the roughly 3 well-known and 40 mostly unknown partisan races, 17 seats or positions on nonpartisan bodies in Marin are potentially on the March ballot. Usually over half of these are uncontested, or in tiny districts that few people outside them are interested in:

• 3 Superior Court Judges’ seats (rarely contested and incumbents almost never lose)

• 3 Almonte Sanitary District seats (few could name the incumbents, who are rarely challenged)

• 3 Ross Town Council seats (there was a challenger last year to the incumbents, but he lost)

Potential races with greater interest include:

• 3 seats on the Ross Valley Sanitary District (It’s larger, and most incumbents are running for re-election. Even though it’s often controversial, it doesn’t seem to be now.)

• 3 seats on the Mill Valley City Council (They’re probably moving it to November, and they have a higher-than-usual number of appointed councilmembers, although they did just have a special election for a new councilmember earlier this year.)

Finally, the “biggest” (most important, and usually gets the most attention of the Marin nonpartisan races) are the three seats on the Board of Supervisors. Dennis Rodoni and Stephanie Moulton-Peters seem likely to skate to reelections (or even uncontested ones) to their third and second terms respectively, as no challengers have surfaced yet that I’ve heard about. The big surprise came in June when Supervisor Katie Rice announced her plan to step down at the end of her term in December of next year.

Rice’s Second Supervisorial District covers most of Ross Valley (Kentfield, Greenbrae, San Anselmo, and Fairfax, plus a few neighborhoods in Southern San Rafael bordering Greenbrae and San Anselmo). One would think there would be plenty of ambitious councilmembers from those cities, ready to step up to a full-time political job rather than stay in a part-time basically volunteer job. Sure enough, two-term San Anselmo councilmember Brian Colbert jumped in, and has been gathering an impressive number of endorsements from other elected officials. Colbert would be the first black Marin Supervisor, just as he’s been the first black council member in Marin. Sonoma State University political science professor David McCuan, a frequent Marin IJ commentator, called Colbert the prohibitive frontrunner recently.

Another two-term San Anselmo councilmember, Steve Burdo, has been long rumored to enter the race. He’s seen as more progressive than Colbert or other likely possible candidates. Larkspur councilmember Gabe Paulson, Ross Valley School board member Ryan O’Neil, and Kentfield School District board member Heather McPhail Sridharan are all running as well. Former Assemblymember Marc Levine had entered the race early but on August 22 Levine announced he was withdrawing from the race, “Over the summer, I’ve had more time to consider serving on the Board of Supervisors and even more intensely weigh it after the passing of my mother earlier this month. I’m going to take a pause on electoral politics for now.”

Perhaps the biggest race statewide for many people in March will be the “primary” for Diane Feinstein’s US Senate seat. Feinstein, age 90, said she won’t run for another term. While progressives have never been too happy with her and didn’t support her last re-election, they’re now upset she didn’t resign earlier this year despite her serious ongoing health problems. Although there are likely to be (and probably already are) numerous candidates, there seem to be only three major ones, all members of the House of Representatives:

Adam Schiff, age 63, has been in Congress a couple of decades and gained recognition and praise for his role in the first Trump impeachment trial. He is probably the frontrunner, leading the fundraising and polling, despite being a little stiffer and less progressive than some would like.

Katie Porter, age 49, has only been in Congress three terms, with her re-election last fall closer than everyone expected, causing her to have to raise more money for it than she anticipated. But she has a reputation as a good fundraiser and is seen as more progressive than Schiff. She’s also appealing as an Orange County law professor who takes her whiteboard to Congressional hearings and has a best-seller out entitled “Politics Is Messier Than My Minivan.”

Barbara Lee has been in Congress the longest and is almost certainly the most progressive, but is seen as the least likely to win among the three because her Oakland seat has always been so Democratic that she never needed to raise much money. This hurts her, as well as the fact that her name recognition is not as good in populous Southern California. She’s also 75, a little old to be mounting her first Senate campaign.

State ballot measures are likely to be few in March (only those put on the ballot by the Legislature), and numerous in November, as usual. The eight statewide constitutional officers were all elected (or re-elected) last year, but already some people are jumping into races, real or imagined, for 2026:

Governor: Gavin Newsom terms out in 2027, and Lieutenant (Lt.) Governor Eleni Kounalakis has filed paperwork announcing her run for governor in 2026, Lt. Governor was her first elected office (I don’t count Ambassador to Hungary). Former State Controller and other statewide officeholder Betty Yee termed out last year and has much more experience in statewide office. She is said to be about to announce her campaign for governor, and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond may be announcing soon as well.

Lt. Governor: Eleni Kounalakis will term out (and is running for Governor), so State Treasurer Fiona Ma has announced her campaign for Lt. Governor. Sausalito Councilmember Janelle Kellman has also launched a campaign. Kellman has been on the Sausalito City Council since her election in November 2020 and is an attorney and entrepreneur focused on environmental issues and climate adaptation. I know of no other candidates for that office (although there are likely to be eventually). I don’t count place-holder accounts, which so many legislators seem to newly elected Attorney General Rob Bonta and Secretary of State Shirley Weber will run for new terms.

Control of Congress and the White House will of course again be a major issue for many people. Republicans are optimistic because Biden’s polling numbers are so low, but Democrats usually do better in Congress during Presidential years and did better than expected during last fall’s midterm elections where Republicans often do better. Also, the Republican presidential frontrunner, Donald Trump, has even lower approval ratings than Biden, and faces four new indictments this year with his trials being scheduled in the coming months right through the presidential campaign.

Democrats remain astounded that so many people so strongly support Trump despite his having more problems as a candidate than even political consultants could concisely list. Many Democrats want Trump to win the Republican nomination because they think he would be easier for President Biden to beat, as the polls show, but others are nervous and don’t want to risk Trump surprising us by winning in November, as he did in 2016.

The March “primary” elections, featuring very few races, has filing open mid-November to midDecember. The November elections will feature plenty of partisan and nonpartisan races, although we’ll have to wait through the March election and national primaries next year to see who the candidates are on the ballot, what the major campaign issues turn out to be, and what the polls say in the months leading up to November 2024.

Greg Brockbank is a 30-plus-year attorney and civic and political activist, having served for 22 years on the College of Marin Board of Trustees and then on the San Rafael City Council He is the senior member and past chair of the Marin Democratic Party governing board and has attended 30 state Democratic conventions. For over 20 years, he has , provided numerous groups with detailed lists of the contact info for all candidates for Marin’s local offices and appears as a commentator and election night co-host on public access television