THE MARKETPLACE ANNUAL REPORT
PERFORMANCE OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN SELECT CITIES OF KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES
Q4 2015 MARKET REPORT
ANDY KEATING ANDY@ANDYKEATINGHOMES.COM 206.841.8084
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[1]
ELECTION YEAR, 2016 WILL WE EXPERIENCE A REPEAT OF 2000 AND 2008? Recently we’ve seen a global stock market correction and our first interest rate increase in 8 years. Locally we’ve seen double-digit drops in housing inventory and double-digit increases in sales. Fortunately, our short-term forecast indicates that it is still a great time to be BOTH a seller and buyer.
For sellers, available
homes on the market remain scarce. A “normal” Puget Sound market has 3-4 months housing supply. Currently King County has a 1 month inventory supply, Snohomish has 1.7, and double-digit price appreciation in many areas. With nearly 70% of housing produced projected as apartment building over the next few years, if you’re thinking of selling your residence, 2016 may be the best time in the foreseeable future - simply because of supply and demand.
For buyers, mortgage rates were finally raised in December, but
continue to hover near record lows of under 4%. We suggest buying ASAP because over the next few years, current rates could increase up to 50%, and housing inventory will continue to stay scarce. In addition, the federal government recently introduced new mandatory closing disclosure requirements (TRID) that will delay all financed closings by at least 1-2 weeks. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana Since January 2013 (when our market began to recover), we’ve seen a consistent trend when the calendar turns over to the new year: prices increase steadily through spring, level off during summer, and fall as the holidays approach. 2016 will most likely be different. Why? 1) It’s an election year without an incumbent presidential candidate. In 2000 and 2008, housing markets decreased and / or were flat. Unpredictability causes fear. 2) We are seeing a housing market similar to that of the 2006/07 election period that preceded the housing market crash in 2008. Build-able land is scarce, and builders and buyers are overpaying with multiple offers over asking price. We are experiencing a large amount of new construction starts. 3) Economic advisers are warning us that current trends are not sustainable, and we should heed the advice. When interest rates go up, affordability goes down. Where does that leave home prices? In the short-term, demand from foreign investors paying cash may continue to push pricing up. Those who rely on buyer financing will either rent, or adjust their real estate goals and buy “less” home than planned. In summary, we are expecting a housing shortage in 2016 and 2017. Contact your MSIR real estate professional to determine your optimal real estate goals and future, or for a customized, in-depth analysis on your area of interest. This is a call to action — the time to act is NOW! [2]
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CONTENTS
THE MARKET TRENDS
Q4 2015 MARKET REPORT
AVERAGES OF KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTES
4 Woodinville Report 5 Redmond Report 6 Sammamish Report 7 Bellevue Report
This report focuses on single family homes in the cities where we conduct most business. While we’re a global brokerage, we mainly work on the Eastside of the Puget Sound region, Olympia to Bellingham. Our numbers only reflect the averages of the communities featured in this report but the trends still accurately reflect county-wide trends.
8 Bothell Report 9 Kirkland Report
TOTAL $ VOLUME AND # OF SALES
10 Duvall Report 11 Carnation Report 12 Snoqualmie Report 13 North Bend Report 14 Issaquah Report 15 Fall City Report 16 Kenmore Report 17 Lake Forest Park 18 Mercer Island Report 19 Seattle Report 20 Maple Valley Report
The Total Dollar Volume increased an average of 22% in 2015 over 2014, from $16.7 billion to $19.6 billion. The Number of Sales increased 13% , from 33,918 in 2014 to 36,958 in 2015. These are the metrics we use to analzye the long-term trends in each market segment because they best summarize the general market activity over long periods of time.
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
The Price Per Square Foot ($/SqFt) increased 4% from 2014 to 2015, from $204 to $218. This metric helps identify trends in market segments when large numbers of transactions are considered together over a period of time, and also is useful when comparing two properties on an apples-to-apples basis. In this case, it helps us understand that properties in this region are increasing in value on a square-foot-basis, rather than growing in size.
21 Kent Report AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET
22 Renton Report 23 Snohomish Report
The Average Days on Market (DOM) decreased 11% from 2014 to 2015, from 67 to 59 days. DOM is a good measure of Liquidity in a real estate market. Liquidity determines how quickly an asset can be sold and usually increases in parallel with price transparency and fungible assets. In liquid markets, fewer days are needed to sell a property. In the Greater Seattle Region, homes are selling in the blink of an eye, making it a highly liquid market. Seattle boasts the second lowest DOM in the U.S.
CURRENT INVENTORY IN UNITS With a surge of buyers and little increase in residential development, there is a shortage of inventory. The inventory of our market segments decreased 24% , from 4,710 units to 3,082 units. With decreased inventory and increased demand, it doesn’t look like the scramble for homes will let up in the near future.
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[3]
*
WOODINVILLE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CRAFTSMAN HOME Sold for $1,149,000 WOODINVILLE
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
524
579
11%
Total Dollar Volume
$317,332,000
$382,480,000
21%
Average Sale Price
$605,600
$660,600
9%
Average Days on Market
46
44
-4%
Sold / List Price %
99%
99.5%
0.5%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$223
$240
8%
Months of Inventory
2.2
1.5
-32%
Current Inventory in Units
75
48
-36%
CHART
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[4]
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Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF WOODINVILLE HOMES
REDMOND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
ENGLISH HILL ESTATE Sold for $910,000
CHART
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF REDMOND HOMES
REDMOND
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
1,115
1,175
5%
Total Dollar Volume
$747,800,000
$828,458,000
11%
Average Sale Price
$670,700
$705,100
5%
Average Days on Market
45
35
-22%
Sold / List Price %
99.7%
100.5%
0.8%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$255
$273
6.8%
Months of Inventory
2
1.3
-35%
Current Inventory in Units
108
60
-44%
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[5]
SAMMAMISH REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TIMELESS ELEGANCE ON 4 ACRES Sold for $1,385,000 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
978
1,014
4%
Total Dollar Volume
$744,440,000
$819,524,000
10%
Average Sale Price
$761,200
$808,200
6%
Average Days on Market
42
40
-5%
Sold / List Price %
99.6%
99.9%
0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$253
$264
5%
Months of Inventory
1.8
1.3
-28%
Current Inventory in Units
91
48
-47%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SAMMAMISH HOMES
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[6]
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Number of Sales
2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
SAMMAMISH
BELLEVUE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CUSTOM CONTEMPORARY Sold for $1,150,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF BELLEVUE HOMES
BELLEVUE
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
1,404
Total Dollar Volume
$1,249,050,000 $1,440,659,000 15%
Average Sale Price
$889,600
$991,500
12%
Average Days on Market
34
28
-18%
Sold / List Price %
99.9%
100.1%
0.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$313
$355
14%
Months of Inventory
1.5
1.2
-20%
Current Inventory in Units
104
93
-11%
1,453
4%
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[7]
BOTHELL REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
PRIVATE CUSTOM HOME Sold for $810,000 Number of Sales
1,504
1,721
14%
Total Dollar Volume
$692,297,000
$838,230,000
21%
Average Sale Price
$460,300
$487,100
6%
Average Days on Market
43
46
7%
Sold / List Price %
99.8%
100.3%
0.5%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$195
$209
7%
Months of Inventory
2.3
1.6
-30%
Current Inventory in Units
256
137
-47%
PERFORMANCE OF BOTHELL HOMES
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[8]
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Number of Sales
2014 2015 %CHANGE 10 YEAR
Total Dollar Volume Sold
BOTHELL
KIRKLAND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SPECTACULAR WATERFRONT HOME Sold for $2,030,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KIRKLAND HOMES
KIRKLAND
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
1,120
1,160
4%
Total Dollar Volume
$787,089,000
$872,615,000
11%
Average Sale Price
$702,800
$752,300
7%
Average Days on Market
44
33
-25%
Sold / List Price %
98.8%
99.9%
1.1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$294
$319
9%
Months of Inventory
2
1.5
-25%
Current Inventory in Units
95
87
-8.4%
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[9]
DUVALL REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CHARMING PRIVATE HOME Sold for $775,000 Number of Sales
184
235
28%
Total Dollar Volume
$77,255,000
$109,856,000
42%
Average Sale Price
$419,900
$467,500
11%
Average Days on Market
38
42
11%
Sold / List Price %
99.2%
99.6%
0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$188
$203
8%
Months of Inventory
2.1
1.6
-24%
Current Inventory in Units
29
26
-10%
YEAR PERFORMANCE OF DUVALL HOMES
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Number of Sales
2014 2015 %CHANGE 10
Total Dollar Volume Sold
DUVALL
CARNATION REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
RESERVE AT LAKE JOY ESTATE Sold for $799,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF CARNATION HOMES
CARNATION
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
127
121
-5%
Total Dollar Volume
$62,373,000
$62,870,000
0.80%
Average Sale Price
$491,100
$519,600
5.8%
Average Days on Market
94
80
-15%
Sold / List Price %
99.1%
98.1%
-1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$204
$212
4%
Months of Inventory
3.1
2.6
-16%
Current Inventory in Units
25
22
-12%
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[ 11 ]
SNOQUALMIE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
PRIVATE WOODED GETAWAY Sold for $579,500 Number of Sales
407
433
6%
Total Dollar Volume
$216,160,000
$237,310,000
10%
Average Sale Price
$531,100
$548,100
3%
Average Days on Market
55
34
-38%
Sold / List Price %
99.4%
100.4%
1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$201
$212
6%
Months of Inventory
1.9
0.7
-63%
Current Inventory in Units
50
4
-92%
PERFORMANCE OF SNOQUALMIE HOMES
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Number of Sales
2014 2015 %CHANGE 10 YEAR
Total Dollar Volume Sold
SNOQUALMIE
NORTH BEND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
MOUNT SI VIEW HOME Sold for $584,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF NORTH BEND HOMES
NORTH BEND
2014
2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
293
292
-0.3%
Total Dollar Volume
$123,634,000
$141,937,000
15%
Average Sale Price
$422,000
$486,100
15%
Average Days on Market
65
55
-15%
Sold / List Price %
98.6%
99.5%
10%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$194
$219
13%
Months of Inventory
2.7
2
-26%
Current Inventory in Units
44
40
-9%
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[ 13 ]
ISSAQUAH REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BRIGHT VIEW HOME Sold for $450,000 ISSAQUAH
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
805
768
-5%
Total Dollar Volume
$498,885,000
$518,926,000
4%
Average Sale Price
$619,700
$675,700
9%
Average Days on Market
31
33
7%
Sold / List Price %
100%
100.3%
0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$245
$267
9%
Months of Inventory
1.6
1.3
-19%
Current Inventory in Units
80
49
-39%
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Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF ISSAQUAH HOMES
FALL CITY REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRADITIONAL HOME ON ACREAGE Sold for $774,850
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF FALL CITY HOMES
FALL CITY
2014
2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
68
72
6%
Total Dollar Volume
$41,717,000
$45,621,000
9%
Average Sale Price
$613,500
$633,600
3%
Average Days on Market
104
74
-29%
Sold / List Price %
97.3%
96.2%
-1.1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$220
$242
10%
Months of Inventory
4.1
2.9
-29%
Current Inventory in Units
20
10
-50%
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[ 15 ]
KENMORE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BRIGHT HOME IN QUIET LOCATION Sold for $389,000 KENMORE
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
285
402
41%
Total Dollar Volume
$135,549,000
$221,557,000
64%
Average Sale Price
$475,600
$551,100
16%
Average Days on Market
41
41
0%
Sold / List Price %
99.5%
99.9%
0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$206
$225
9%
Months of Inventory
2.4
1.8
-25%
Current Inventory in Units
55
32
-42%
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Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KENMORE HOMES
LAKE FOREST PARK REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SPACIOUS HOME ON LARGE LOT Listed for $1.3 million
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF LAKE FOREST PARK HOMES
LAKE FOREST PARK
2014
2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
188
210
12%
Total Dollar Volume
$101,736,000
$130,402,000
28%
Average Sale Price
$541,100
$621,000
15%
Average Days on Market
43
32
-26%
Sold / List Price %
99%
99.1%
0.1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$218
$248
14%
Months of Inventory
2.1
1.2
-43%
Current Inventory in Units
25
12
-52%
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[ 17 ]
MERCER ISLAND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRANQUIL CONTEMPORARY HOME Sold for $975,000 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
338
328
-3%
Total Dollar Volume
$472,287,000
$498,650,000
6%
Average Sale Price
$1,397,300
$1,520,300
9%
Average Days on Market
67
46
-31%
Sold / List Price %
97.3%
98%
0.7%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$414
$448
8%
Months of Inventory
2.6
1.8
-31%
Current Inventory in Units
41
26
-37%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF MERCER ISLAND HOMES
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Number of Sales
2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
MERCER ISLAND
SEATTLE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SEATTLE LUXURY PENTHOUSE Listed for $1,200,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SEATTLE HOMES
SEATTLE
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
7,887
Total Dollar Volume
$4,455,072,000 $5,109,680,000 15%
Average Sale Price
$564,900
$626,000
11%
Average Days on Market
34
25
-27%
Sold / List Price %
100.6%
102.6%
2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$278
$310
12%
Months of Inventory
1.4
0.9
-36%
Current Inventory in Units
627
361
-42%
8,162
4%
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[ 19 ]
MAPLE VALLEY REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
EXTRAORDINARY HOME ON PRIVATE LOT Sold for $500,000 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
690
718
4%
Total Dollar Volume
$252,386,000
$278,609,000
10%
Average Sale Price
$365,800
$388,000
6%
Average Days on Market
41
37
-10%
Sold / List Price %
99.2%
99.5%
0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$161
$177
10%
Months of Inventory
1.9
1.3
-32%
Current Inventory in Units
84
48
-43%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF MAPLE VALLEY HOMES
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[ 20 ]
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Number of Sales
2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
MAPLE VALLEY
KENT REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRANQUIL CONTEMPORARY HOME Sold for $459,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KENT HOMES
KENT
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
1,166
1,397
20%
Total Dollar Volume
$346,139,000
$458,515,000
33%
Average Sale Price
$296,900
$328,200
11%
Average Days on Market
56
48
-14%
Sold / List Price %
99.3%
100%
0.7%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$143
$156
9%
Months of Inventory
2.7
1.6
-41%
Current Inventory in Units
238
115
-52%
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[ 21 ]
RENTON REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CRAFTSMAN HOME ON ACREAGE Listed for $1,090,000 RENTON
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
1,629
1,891
16%
Total Dollar Volume
$642,213,000
$780,158,000
22%
Average Sale Price
$394,200
$412,600
5%
Average Days on Market
47
41
-13%
Sold / List Price %
99.6%
99.9%
0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$179
$189
6%
Months of Inventory
2.2
1.5
-32%
Current Inventory in Units
246
155
-37%
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[ 22 ]
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Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF RENTON HOMES
SNOHOMISH REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BEAUTIFUL TRADITIONAL HOME Sold for $910,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SNOHOMISH HOMES
SNOHOMISH
2014 2015 %CHANGE
Number of Sales
904
1,011
12%
Total Dollar Volume
$366,286,000
$451,938,000
23%
Average Sale Price
$405,200
$447,000
10%
Average Days on Market
64
49
-23%
Sold / List Price %
99.8%
99.2%
0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$171
$185
8%
Months of Inventory
2.9
2.5
-14%
Current Inventory in Units
180
165
-8%
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[ 23 ]
IMAGINE IT’S NOT LUXURY PRICES WE SERVE. IT’S LUXURY SERVICE CLIENTS EXPECT.
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