THE MARKETPLACE MID-YEAR REPORT PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN KING AND SNOHOMISH COUNTIES
Q2 2015 MARKET REPORT
CHAD SHRINER CHAD..SHRINER@SOTHEBYSREALTY.COM 425.533.3790
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[1]
A MARKETPLACE THAT ISN’T COOLING OFF ANYTIME SOON The Seattle and Eastside economy has caught the eye of the nation a lot lately. With a surge of buyers moving to and investing in Seattle and surrounding cities and very little increase in single-family residential development, the housing market has become quite competitive: bidding wars, waved contingencies, and above-list-price sales. Most recently, the Eastside and Seattle Real Estate Market made national headlines when the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported the median price in King County reached $500,000, a 10.3 percent increase over the last peak of $481,000 in July 2007. This was a symbolic statistic: in the Northwest we have officially rebounded, as the market is now performing exactly where it would have had the recession never existed. Neighboring counties have tracked similarly: in Snohomish County the median price of single-family homes sold was $360,125 — 6 percent higher than last year— and Pierce County prices are up an impressive 9.5 percent at $257,000. Other metrics have remained positive as well: the Total Dollar Volume, Number of Sales, and Average Price per Square Foot all increased despite decreasing inventory. The result has been a rapid decrease in the number of days homes sit on the market: only an average of 26 days in Seattle and 46 days in the greater Seattle region. When a home goes on the market, Seattle house hunters are ready to fight, paying well above list price and waving contingencies. The healthy real estate market is largely attributed to a surge in buyers who are attracted by the booming industries of the area. According to a Forbes Group study, Seattle is leading the nation in creation of tech jobs with 12 percent growth in tech employment over a two-year period, and 7.6 percent growth in STEM jobs. Other industries — from tourism to wine — are also expanding. As these statistics illustrate, now is an exciting time to be a part of the market. I am committed to maintaining expertise on the real estate market so I can provide the most exceptional service and the best representation to my clients. I believe when it is time for you to sell, my expert marketing, local expertise, and global reach can help you get the most value for your home. I hope you find this report insightful. Please contact me for a customized, in-depth analysis on your area of interest.
[2]
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CONTENTS
MARKET TRENDS
Q2 2015 MARKET REPORT
AVERAGES OF FEATURED MARKET SEGMENTS
4 Woodinville Report
7 Bellevue Report
This report focuses on cities where we conduct most business. While we’re a global brokerage, we mainly work on the Eastside of the Puget Sound region, Olympia to Bellingham. Our numbers only reflect the averages of the communities featured in this report but the trends still accurately reflect county-wide trends.
8 Bothell Report
TOTAL $ VOLUME AND # OF SALES
5 Redmond Report 6 Sammamish Report
13 North Bend Report
The Total Dollar Volume increased an average of 26% in the first half of 2015 over the first half of 2014, from $5 billion to $6.1 billion. The Number of Sales increased 13%, from 8,917 in 2014 to 10,037 in 2015. These are the metrics we use to analzye the long-term trends in each market segment because they best summarize the general market activity over long periods of time.
14 Issaquah Report
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
9 Kirkland Report 10 Duvall Report 11 Carnation Report 12 Snoqualmie Report
15 Fall City Report 16 Kenmore Report 17 Lake Forest Park 18 Mercer Island Report 19 Seattle Report 20 Renton Report 21 Snohomish Report
The $/SqFt increased 7% from 2014 to 2015, from $223 to $238. This metric helps identify trends in market segments when large numbers of transactions are considered together over a period of time. Price Per Square Foot also is useful when comparing two properties on a true apples-toapples basis. In this case it helps us understand that in this region properties are increasing in value on a square-foot-basis, rather than growing in size.
AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET The Average Days on Market decreased 7% from 2014 to 2015, from 46 to 42 days. DOM is a good measure of Liquidity in a real estate market. Liquidity determines how quickly an asset can be sold and usually increases in parallel with price transparency and fungible assets. In liquid markets, fewer days are needed to sell a property. In the Greater Seattle Region, homes are selling in the blink of an eye, making it a highly liquid market. Seattle boasts the second lowest DOM in the U.S.
CURRENT MONTHS OF INVENTORY With a surge of buyers and little increase in residential development, there is a shortage of inventory. The Months of Inventory of our market segments decreased 18%, from 2.2 to 1.6 months. With decreased inventory and increased demand, it doesn’t look like the scramble for homes will let up in the near future.
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[3]
*
WOODINVILLE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
EQUESTRIAN ESTATE Just Listed for $1,825,000 YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
238
295
24%
Total Dollar Volume
$145,327,000
$192,662,000
33%
Average Sale Price
$610,600
$653,100
7%
Average Days on Market
48
44
-8%
Sold / List Price %
99.20%
99.7%
0.5%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$223
$238
7%
Months of Inventory
1.8
1.5
-17%
Current Inventory in Units
96
96
0%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF WOODINVILLE HOMES
CHART
CHAD SHRINER Chad.Shriner@SothebysRealty.com
[4]
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Number of Sales
YTD Q2 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
WOODINVILLE
REDMOND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
ENGLISH HILL ESTATE Sold for $910,000
CHART
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF REDMOND HOMES
REDMOND
YTD Q2 2014
YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
483
557
15%
Total Dollar Volume
$316,090,000
$374,488,000
18%
Average Sale Price
$654,400
$672,300
2.7%
Average Days on Market
42
39
-7%
Sold / List Price %
100.10%
100.5%
0.4%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$256
$266
3.8%
Months of Inventory
2.2
1.4
-36%
Current Inventory in Units
232
159
-31%
CHAD SHRINER Cassandra.Joyner@SothebysRealty.com
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[5]
SAMMAMISH REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TIMELESS ELEGANCE ON 4 ACRES Sold for $1,385,000 YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
448
473
6%
Total Dollar Volume
$336,135,000
$374,001,000
11%
Average Sale Price
$750,300
$790,700
5%
Average Days on Market
40
46
15%
Sold / List Price %
100.2%
100%
-0.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$248
$261
5%
Months of Inventory
1.8
1.4
-22%
Current Inventory in Units
190
145
-24%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SAMMAMISH HOMES
CHAD SHRINER Chad.Shriner@SothebysRealty.com
[6]
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Number of Sales
YTD Q2 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
SAMMAMISH
BELLEVUE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CUSTOM CONTEMPORARY Sold for $1,150,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF BELLEVUE HOMES
BELLEVUE
YTD Q2 2014
YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
610
666
9%
Total Dollar Volume
$541,810,000
$658,755,000
22%
Average Sale Price
$888,200
$989,100
11%
Average Days on Market
34
30
-12%
Sold / List Price %
100.4%
100.30%
-0.1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$315
350
11%
Months of Inventory
1.4
1.2
-14%
Current Inventory in Units
213
181
-15%
CHAD SHRINER Cassandra.Joyner@SothebysRealty.com
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[7]
BOTHELL REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
PRIVATE CUSTOM HOME Sold for $810,000 YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
689
857
24%
Total Dollar Volume
$319,757,000
$409,789,000
28%
Average Sale Price
$464,100
$478,200
3%
Average Days on Market
43
57
33%
Sold / List Price %
100%
100.3%
0.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$192
$204
6%
Months of Inventory
2.1
1.5
-29%
Current Inventory in Units
319
256
-20%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF BOTHELL HOMES
CHAD SHRINER Chad.Shriner@SothebysRealty.com
[8]
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Number of Sales
YTD Q2 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
BOTHELL
KIRKLAND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SPECTACULAR WATERFRONT HOME Just listed for $3,800,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KIRKLAND HOMES
KIRKLAND
YTD Q2 2014
YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
488
554
14%
Total Dollar Volume
$339,871,000
$418,033,000
23%
Average Sale Price
$696,500
$754,600
8%
Average Days on Market
46
35
-24%
Sold / List Price %
99.3%
100.2%
0.9%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$290
$320
10%
Months of Inventory
2
1.5
-25%
Current Inventory in Units
217
180
-17%
CHAD SHRINER Cassandra.Joyner@SothebysRealty.com
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[9]
DUVALL REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CHARMING COUNTRY ACREAGE Sold for $585,000 YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
95
109
15%
Total Dollar Volume
$38,283,000
$50,951,000
33%
Average Sale Price
$403,000
$467,400
16%
Average Days on Market
43
50
16%
Sold / List Price %
99.2%
99%
-0.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$195
$199
1.9%
Months of Inventory
1.8
1.6
-11%
Current Inventory in Units
38
34
-11%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF DUVALL HOMES
CHAD SHRINER Chad.Shriner@SothebysRealty.com
[ 10 ]
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Number of Sales
YTD Q2 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
DUVALL
CARNATION REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
RESERVE AT LAKE JOY ESTATE Sold for $799,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF CARNATION HOMES
CARNATION
YTD Q2 2014
YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
49
53
8%
Total Dollar Volume
$25,260,000
$30,157,000
19%
Average Sale Price
$515,500
$569
10%
Average Days on Market
112
63
-44%
Sold / List Price %
99.6%
98.5%
-1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$215
$216
0.3%
Months of Inventory
4.1
2.6
-37%
Current Inventory in Units
45
26
-42%
CHAD SHRINER Cassandra.Joyner@SothebysRealty.com
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[ 11 ]
SNOQUALMIE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
PRIVATE WOODED GETAWAY Sold for $579,500 YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
184
234
27%
Total Dollar Volume
$91,272,000
$127,879,000
40%
Average Sale Price
$496,000
$546,500
10%
Average Days on Market
47
41
-13%
Sold / List Price %
99.6%
100.6%
1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$192
$210
9%
Months of Inventory
2
0.8
-60%
Current Inventory in Units
63
29
-54%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SNOQUALMIE HOMES
CHAD SHRINER Chad.Shriner@SothebysRealty.com
[ 12 ]
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Number of Sales
YTD Q2 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
SNOQUALMIE
NORTH BEND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
MOUNT SI VIEW HOME Just listed for $599,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF NORTH BEND HOMES
NORTH BEND
YTD Q2 2014
YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
131
125
-5%
Total Dollar Volume
$52,916,000
$57,923,000
10%
Average Sale Price
$403,900
$463,400
15%
Average Days on Market
65
60
-8%
Sold / List Price %
99.3%
99.6%
0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$188
$207
10%
Months of Inventory
2.9
2.3
-21%
Current Inventory in Units
79
55
-30%
CHAD SHRINER Cassandra.Joyner@SothebysRealty.com
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[ 13 ]
ISSAQUAH REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BRIGHT VIEW HOME Sold for $450,000 YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
358
395
10.3%
Total Dollar Volume
$223,891,000
$257,313,000
14.9%
Average Sale Price
$625,400
$651,400
5.7%
Average Days on Market
35
37
0.1%
Sold / List Price %
100.5%
100.6%
9.6%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$238
$261
4.2%
Months of Inventory
1.5
1.2
-20%
Current Inventory in Units
150
101
-33%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF ISSAQUAH HOMES
CHAD SHRINER Chad.Shriner@SothebysRealty.com
[ 14 ]
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Number of Sales
YTD Q2 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
ISSAQUAH
FALL CITY REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRADITIONAL HOME ON ACREAGE Sold for $774,850
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF FALL CITY HOMES
FALL CITY
YTD Q2 2014
YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
29
33
14%
Total Dollar Volume
$15,995,000
$21,041,000
32%
Average Sale Price
$551,600
$637,600
16%
Average Days on Market
112
84
-25%
Sold / List Price %
98.8%
97.7%
-0.01%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$238
$237
-0.3%
Months of Inventory
4.4
3.4
-23%
Current Inventory in Units
22
25
14%
CHAD SHRINER Cassandra.Joyner@SothebysRealty.com
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[ 15 ]
KENMORE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
BRIGHT HOME IN QUIET LOCATION Sold for $389,000 YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
137
195
42%
Total Dollar Volume
$66,367,000
$103,206,000
56%
Average Sale Price
$484,400
$529,300
9%
Average Days on Market
36
38
6%
Sold / List Price %
100.6%
100%
-0.6%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$208
$219
5%
Months of Inventory
1.8
1.9
6%
Current Inventory in Units
57
75
32%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KENMORE HOMES
CHAD SHRINER Chad.Shriner@SothebysRealty.com
[ 16 ]
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Number of Sales
YTD Q2 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
KENMORE
LAKE FOREST PARK REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
VIEW HOME ON LARGE LOT Sold for $375,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF LAKE FOREST PARK HOMES
LAKE FOREST PARK
YTD Q2 2014
YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
85
101
19%
Total Dollar Volume
$43,336,000
$56,791,000
31%
Average Sale Price
$509,800
$562
10%
Average Days on Market
41
35
-15%
Sold / List Price %
100.2%
100.5%
0.3%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$211
$232
10%
Months of Inventory
1.8
1.1
-39%
Current Inventory in Units
36
25
-31%
CHAD SHRINER Cassandra.Joyner@SothebysRealty.com
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[ 17 ]
MERCER ISLAND REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
TRADITIONAL HOME ON ACREAGE Sold for $774,850 YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
181
159
-12%
Total Dollar Volume
$256,122,000
$249,262,000
-3%
Average Sale Price
$1,415,000
$1,567,700
11%
Average Days on Market
75
53
-29%
Sold / List Price %
97.60%
97.5%
-0.1%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$416
$446
7%
Months of Inventory
2.6
2
-23%
Current Inventory in Units
97
66
-32%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF MERCER ISLAND HOMES
CHAD SHRINER Chad.Shriner@SothebysRealty.com
[ 18 ]
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Number of Sales
YTD Q2 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
MERCER ISLAND
SEATTLE REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
SEATTLE LUXURY PENTHOUSE Just listed for $1,200,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SEATTLE HOMES
SEATTLE
YTD Q2 2014
YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
3,722
4,005
8%
Total Dollar Volume
$2,045,382,000 $2,451,579,000 20%
Average Sale Price
$549,500
$612
11%
Average Days on Market
36
28
-22%
Sold / List Price %
101.1%
102.8%
2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$273
$304
12%
Months of Inventory
1.4
0.9
-36%
Current Inventory in Units
1,073
681
-37%
CHAD SHRINER Cassandra.Joyner@SothebysRealty.com
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[ 19 ]
RENTON REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CRAFTSMAN HOME ON CORNER LOT Sold for $529,888 YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
748
938
25%
Total Dollar Volume
$289,396,000
$389,192,000
35%
Average Sale Price
$387
$414,900
7%
Average Days on Market
50
49
-2%
Sold / List Price %
100%
100%
0%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$177
$187
6%
Months of Inventory
$2.2
1.5
-32%
Current Inventory in Units
306
292
-5%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF RENTON HOMES
CHAD SHRINER Chad.Shriner@SothebysRealty.com
[ 20 ]
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Number of Sales
YTD Q2 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
RENTON
SNOHOMISH REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CHARMING VICTORIAN Sold for $305,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF SNOHOMISH HOMES
SNOHOMISH
YTD Q2 2014
YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
426
488
15%
Total Dollar Volume
$170,263,000
$210,967,000
24%
Average Sale Price
$399,700
$432,300
8%
Average Days on Market
66
55
-17%
Sold / List Price %
99.4%
99.2%
-0.2%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$166
$181
10%
Months of Inventory
2.8
2.3
-18%
Current Inventory in Units
219
238
9%
CHAD SHRINER Cassandra.Joyner@SothebysRealty.com
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[ 21 ]
MAPLE VALLEY REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CRAFTSMAN HOME ON CORNER LOT Sold for $529,888 YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
297
390
31%
Total Dollar Volume
$107,367,000
$149,415,000
39%
Average Sale Price
$361,500
$383,100
6%
Average Days on Market
42
40
-5%
Sold / List Price %
98.9%
99.6%
0.7%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$160
$174
9%
Months of Inventory
$1.9
1.2
-37%
Current Inventory in Units
128
81
-37%
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF MAPLE VALLEY HOMES
CHAD SHRINER Chad.Shriner@SothebysRealty.com
[ 22 ]
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Number of Sales
YTD Q2 2014
Total Dollar Volume Sold
MAPLE VALLEY
KENT REPORT SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
CHARMING VICTORIAN Sold for $305,000
Number of Sales
Total Dollar Volume Sold
10 YEAR PERFORMANCE OF KENT HOMES
KENT
YTD Q2 2014
YTD Q2 2015
%CHANGE
Number of Sales
537
682
27%
Total Dollar Volume
$155,790,000
$220,495,00
41%
Average Sale Price
$290,100
$323,300
11%
Average Days on Market
60
55
-8%
Sold / List Price %
99.2%
99.9%
0.7%
Average Price Per Square Foot
$140
$154
10%
Months of Inventory
2.6
1.7
-35%
Current Inventory in Units
266
207
-22%
CHAD SHRINER Cassandra.Joyner@SothebysRealty.com
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[ 23 ]
IMAGINE IT’S NOT LUXURY PRICES WE SERVE. IT’S LUXURY SERVICE CLIENTS EXPECT.
CHAD SHRINER CHAD.SHRINER@SOTHEBYSREALTY.COM