SECOND Q U A R T E R
2 011
CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
SECOND QUARTER
2 011 CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
TABLE OF CONTENTS SE CT ION ONE
CHICAGO ECONOMY 01 Economic Analysis SE CT ION T WO
CHICAGO CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT 02 CBD Executive Summary SUPPLY
03 New Developments 04 Sublease Space 05 Large Blocks of Direct Availability DEMAND
06 Vacancy Rates 07 Large Deals 08 Absorption FEATURES
09 10 11 12 13
Lease Comparables Investment Sales Forecast Submarket Map Market Statistics
SE CT ION T H RE E
SUBURBAN CHICAGO 14 Suburban Chicago Executive Summary T h e C h ic a g o M a r ke t O v e r v i e w i s p ubl i s h e d q u a r t e r l y by M B R e a l E s ta te. To o b t a in ad d i ti o n a l co pi e s o r fo r fur the r in f or ma ti o n , p l e a s e c o nta c t:
KRYS TA BAV LS IK Manager of Research and Analytics or JAC K G AV IN Research Coordinator 1 8 1 We st M a d i s o n S tre e t, S ui te 4 7 0 0 Ch ic a go, I l l i no i s 6 0 6 0 2 (312) 726-1700
SUPPLY
15 New Developments 16 Sublease Space 17 Large Blocks of Direct Availability DEMAND
18 Vacancy Rates 19 Large Deals 20 Absorption FEATURES
21 22 23 24 25
Gross Asking Rents Investment Sales Forecast Submarket Map Market Statistics
w w w. m b r e s . c o m SE CT ION FOUR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 26 Glossary 27 About MB Real Estate
CHICAGO ECONOMY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has finally started to recover, though it lags the national recovery. While the MSA is the business center of the Midwest and has a well-educated workforce, it is highly dependent on slowgrowing and mature industries. Also, its cost of doing business is 8 percent higher than the national average. National headwinds have the potential to throw Chicago's recovery off track. Hiring is well below levels typical of a recovery. GDP growth has decelerated. Debt reduction will impact all industries. All levels of government must reduce spending while considering a tax increase. While this will inevitably lead to slower growth, it may be more sustainable in the long-term.
C H I C A G O E C O N O M I C A N A LY S I S
SECTION ONE
Total employment in the Chicago MSA declined 7.5 percent peak-to-trough and has only rebounded 1.3 percent since hitting its low in December 2009. Without new jobs, economic growth is not likely to translate into increased office occupancy. Despite the massive headwinds, companies such as GE Capital and Allscripts have announced that they will be bringing jobs to Chicago in the near future. While many tenants are still consolidating and contracting, the signs of new growth are promising. Chicago’s employment losses have yet to filter through the office market The Chicago MSA's economy warrants continued occupancy reductions to align with the employment market. Suburban Chicago continued to shed occupancy at a rapid pace, while Central Business District (CBD) occupancy improved during the quarter. Underutilized space, often termed “shadow vacancy,” remains the biggest risk to the market. Many companies currently lease more space than necessary after reducing their headcount during the recession. Due to long-term leases, their commitment to this excess space takes years to expire. Upon expiration, many tenants are choosing to contract consolidate locations to align with their needs, a process that will take several more years to filter through the market. The largest mitigating factor to the correlation between office occupancy and employment is confidence. If businesses are confident of future expansion, they may lease or renew space ahead of necessity. Headlines suggest that some firms are expanding within the CBD, which could lead to that sentiment becoming pervasive. Attractive lease terms may further entice tenants to act in advance. MB Real Estate’s baseline office forecast still expects a substantial decline in occupancy over several upcoming quarters to correlate with job losses. An alternative scenario, which is increasingly plausible, is that occupancy will be volatile, but still trend negatively over time in the CBD, while losses in Suburban Chicago will be steadily negative. An optimistic scenario points to the relatively flat quarter and previous positive one in the CBD as an early sign of a turning point, where rental rates have fallen enough to warrant expansion for some tenants before it is justified by employee headcount. Sources: MBRE Research, BLS, Chicago Sun-Times, Crain’s Chicago Business, Financial Times, Moody’s Economy.com, National Real Estate Investor
CHICAGO EMPLOYMENT WELL BELOW PEAK
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
1
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Chicago's CBD experienced a modest increase in occupancy. Leasing activity was strong as some of the largest tenants finally committed to decisions, although much of the impact will not be felt immediately. Key Indicators: • For just the second time since the downturn, quarterly absorption was positive. Office occupancy is improving, failing to align with job losses. Recent announcements of corporate expansion in the CBD are aiding the recovery by creating optimism within the market.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SECTION TWO
• Since employment data has not fully filtered through the market, it is likely that occupancy will vacillate between positive and negative results each quarter, but ultimately trend negative. Large tenant movements have the potential to make any quarter positive, but there is still too much underutilized space within the CBD to predict a recovery. • The East Loop dominated leasing activity this quarter, but the net result is not clearly positive. While McKinsey made a long term commitment to this submarket, Obama for America and Groupon's short term leases will expire next year. • Risks to the outlook include: shrinking space requirement per employee, reduced storage needs due to digital archiving, reduced server space needs due to cloud computing, increased use of telecommunication, increased corporate tax rates in Illinois, and the GSA's elimination of underutilized space. Underutilized space remains the biggest concern to the outlook of the market. Among tenants tracked with near-term lease expirations, many will be downsizing from their current footprint. This will lead to prolonged weakness in the market according to the baseline forecast. • The CBD remains increasingly attractive for suburban tenants evaluating relocation alternatives. The Chicago MSA contains many of the country's fastest-growing companies. Lingering effects of the recession are expected to cause the direct vacancy rate to rise to 16.4 percent by 2012.
CBD VACANCY AND YEAR-TO-DATE ABSORPTION SUMMARY Direct Vacancy 2Q2011 Central Loop East Loop N. Michigan Ave. River North South Loop West Loop CBD Chicago Total Net Absorption 2Q2011 Central Loop East Loop N. Michigan Ave. River North South Loop West Loop CBD Chicago Total
A 9.8% 27.2% 20.1% 15.7% 13.9% 14.9% 15.0%
Change from 1Q2011 0.3% -1.1% 0.5% -0.9% 0.7% -0.5%
-0.3%
B
Change from 1Q2011
17.9% 21.9% 24.0% 7.5%
0.6% -1.6% 1.0% -1.4%
12.8% 17.5%
-0.3%
-0.4%
C 16.4% 13.8% 13.2% 13.0% 24.9% 17.3% 15.3%
Change from 1Q2011 1.2% -0.1% 0.1% -0.9% -0.8% -0.5%
0.0%
Total
Change from 1Q2011
14.5% 19.8% 19.2% 12.3% 20.1% 14.8% 15.9%
0.6% -1.0% 0.6% -1.1% -0.1% -0.5% -0.2%
A
B
C
Total
(32,289) 54,897 (21,064) 37,212 (6,812) 162,621 194,564
(48,286) 163,427 (37,240) 74,842
(93,197) (20,034) (19,176) 18,942 (4,085) 4,887 (112,663)
( 173,772) 198,290 ( 77,480) 130,996 ( 10,897) 213,086 280,223
45,578 198,321
Numbers in parentheses are negative
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
2
Tenants are considering new buildings, but costs may be prohibitive
• The development landscape remains unchanged since last quarter. Four proposed developments are actively marketing to tenants in the CBD, while numerous other sites have been identified. • As a deterrent to new development, material costs have increased 4.2 percent over the last year, outpacing inflation. If costs continue to rise, the required rents for new buildings may rise. On the other hand, several states have been successful in reigning in union power. Similar measures in Illinois could work to reduce labor costs and encourage development.
2000 - 5 Properties 2001 - 2 Properties 2002 - 2 Properties 2003 - 0 Properties 2004 - 1 Property 2005 - 2 Properties 2006 - 2 Properties 2007 - 0 Properties 2008 - 2 Properties 2009 - 3 Properties 2010 - 1 Expansion
2,870,576 904,436 2,236,364 0 1,300,000 2,500,143 1,320,498 0 728,254 3,652,913 933,710
sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf
95.8% 86.9% 94.6% 0.0% 100.0% 97.4% 96.9% 0.0% 70.6% 81.4% 92.9%
16,446,894 sf
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
% Leased
S U P P LY
Total - 20 Properties
• Two of the proposed buildings are relatively small and would need only one large anchor to obtain construction financing. The Alter Group and White Oak Realty are proposing a 490,000 square foot tower at 625 West Adams, while Fifield and CB Richard Ellis are proposing a 350,000 to 425,000 square foot building at 601 West Monroe. Conversely, Trammell Crow and Insite Real Estate are marketing a 1 million square foot tower at 301 South Wacker. Hines is trying to revive a 1 million square foot development at 444 West Lake, which was sufficiently pre-leased, but fell apart.
% Leased (Avg)
2000 - 2010 INVENTORY ADDITIONS
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
N/A 0 sf
Total
2000-2011 INVENTORY ADDITIONS Delivered (2000-2010) Delivered (2011)
16,446,894 sf 0 sf
Total Under Construction Proposed Inventory
16,446,894 sf
Total
0 sf 3,015,000 sf
3,015,000 sf
• OUTLOOK: The estimated net rent needed to justify a new building is 75 to 100 percent greater than the average of Class A initial rents. Tenants will need to have a strong preference for a new building when significant discounts to peak pricing can be found in existing space.
NEW DEVELOPMENT HALTED; DEMAND PICKS UP SLIGHTLY
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
3
The 2nd quarter was active, but resulted in little net change
• Total sublease space remained virtually unchanged in the quarter, while several spaces shifted among large blocks. • Kirkland and Ellis stopped listing its space at 200 East Randolph (AON Center) for sublease because it is due to expire at the end of the year. Part of DLA Piper’s sublease offering at 203 North LaSalle was leased, removing that large block from availability. • A new large block of sublease availability was created at 350 West Mart Center (former Apparel Center) when AT&T added additional space to make a contiguous 161,000 square foot block. This marks the second large sublease availability for AT&T in the CBD; the company is also marketing space for sublease in Suburban Chicago.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SUBLEASE SPACE
• OUTLOOK: Sublease space availability is expected to gradually decrease as tenants sign discounted subleases and direct leases expire. More than 1 million square feet of sublease space must still be burned off before equilibrium levels are reached.
YEAR-END HISTORIC SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY: STEADILY DECREASING S U P P LY
LARGE BLOCKS (OVER 50,000 SQUARE FEET) OF SUBLEASE SPACE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE CLASS A Building Address
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Floor(s)
Sublandlord
200 E Randolph St 875 N Michigan Ave 233 S Wacker Dr
95,103 68,372 50,586
Vacant Vacant Negotiable
December 2013 June 2014 August 2014
14-16 28-30 14
AON Corporation PricewaterhouseCoopers SNR Denton
Total - 3 Spaces
214,061
CLASS B Building Address
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Floor(s)
Sublandlord
225 W Randolph St 350 W Mart Ctr 231 S LaSalle St 600 W Chicago Ave 680 N Lake Shore Dr 222 N LaSalle St 2 N LaSalle St 205 N Michigan Ave
238,778 160,568 126,439 117,101 95,523 78,974 78,660 55,312
February 2012 Vacant November 2011 Vacant Negotiable January 2012 Vacant Vacant
December 2022 January 2016 June 2023 November 2015 August 2022 May 2014 July 2016 July 2013
22-30 3-5 6-9 2 15-16 17-18 Mezz-3 29-31
AT&T AT&T Bank of America Level 3 Communications Playboy Enterprises Merrill Lynch Computershare Unilever
Total - 8 Spaces
951,355
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
4
Several large tenants finally sign leases; blocks over 200,000 square feet are scarce
• The CBD experienced strong activity in large block leasing. The total number of large blocks fell by five this quarter, while their combined square footage decreased by 950,000 square feet. • Wells Fargo’s lease at the CME building at 10 and 30 South Wacker removed three separate large blocks from availability. Similarly, Golan Harris/Weber Shandwick’s lease at 875 North Michigan (John Hancock Center) removed two. McKinsey signed a lease at 300 East Randolph (Blue Cross Blue Shield Building) removing another large block of direct availability.
• MB Real Estate has identified 36 tenants actively seeking at least 50,000 square feet in the CBD. Considering that there are 72 blocks available, there is a clear glut of space in the market. When considering blocks of 200,000 square feet or more, there are only five spaces compared to seven tenants of such size. While these tenants also have the possibility to renew, this segment of the market is the most constrained.
CLASS B Building Address 330 N Wabash Ave 303 E Wacker Dr * 130 E Randolph St * 55 E Monroe St 333 S Wabash Ave * 303 E Wacker Dr * 205 | 225 N Michigan Ave 101 N Wacker Dr 330 N Wabash Ave 1 N Dearborn St 231 S LaSalle St 200 N LaSalle St 600 W Van Buren St 120 S LaSalle St * 175 W Jackson Blvd * 175 W Jackson Blvd * 111 E Wacker Dr * 525 W Monroe St 180 N LaSalle St 222 N LaSalle St 55 W Monroe St 33 W Monroe St 300 S Riverside Plz 300 S Riverside Plz 401 N Michigan Ave 222 Merchandise Mart Plz 26 Blocks
Size (sf)
Submarket
371,945 241,206 185,042 175,263 163,800 143,960 120,446 106,732 97,932 97,261 91,962 71,728 71,254 69,519 68,539 67,725 67,362 67,282 59,804 58,908 55,063 54,178 52,727 52,456 51,870 50,000 2,713,964
North Michigan Avenue East Loop East Loop East Loop East Loop East Loop East Loop West Loop North Michigan Avenue Central Loop Central Loop Central Loop West Loop Central Loop Central Loop Central Loop East Loop West Loop Central Loop Central Loop Central Loop Central Loop West Loop West Loop North Michigan Avenue River North
500 W Monroe St 233 S Wacker Dr 200 E Randolph St * 21 S Clark * 111 W Illinois St 161 N Clark St 200 S Wacker Dr 500 W Monroe St * 500 W Madison St 233 S Wacker Dr 455 N Cityfront Plaza Dr 333 W Wacker Dr * 1 S Wacker Dr 30 S Wacker Dr 333 W Wacker Dr 227 W Monroe St * 233 S Wacker Dr One/Two Prudential Plaza 227 W Monroe St 10 S LaSalle St 200 E Randolph St 77 W Wacker Dr 200 E Randolph St * 353 N Clark St 980 N Michigan Ave 321 N Clark St 233 S Wacker Dr 222 W Adams St 181 W Madison St 353 N Clark St 155 N Wacker Dr 227 W Monroe St 525 W Van Buren St * 33 Blocks
Size (sf)
Submarket
369,207 299,514 243,803 151,000 141,503 116,964 112,929 106,475 92,924 91,216 90,207 87,954 86,658 81,478 80,736 75,850 74,806 73,644 70,053 68,937 68,154 67,342 67,318 62,390 62,384 61,431 60,817 59,436 56,199 55,370 55,298 54,371 51,538 3,297,906
West Loop West Loop East Loop Central Loop River North Central Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop North Michigan Avenue West Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop East Loop West Loop Central Loop East Loop Central Loop East Loop River North North Michigan Avenue River North West Loop West Loop Central Loop River North West Loop West Loop West Loop
S U P P LY
• The largest addition to available space is a 151,000 square foot block 21 South Clark. McKinsey, who currently occupies the space, is expected to vacate next year.
CLASS A Building Address
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LARGE BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
CLASS C Building Address 11 S LaSalle St 350 W Mart Ctr 33 S State St 401 S State St 111 W Jackson Blvd 111 W Jackson Blvd 79 W Monroe St 564 W Randolph St 619 S LaSalle St 360 N Michigan Ave * 740 N Rush St 111 N Canal St 12 Blocks
Size (sf)
Submarket
155,822 126,535 117,207 110,898 102,943 83,612 82,921 81,331 78,000 76,855 73,294 57,800
Central Loop River North East Loop East Loop Central Loop Central Loop Central Loop West Loop South Loop East Loop North Michigan Avenue West Loop
1,147,218
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market * Block of space is for future occupancy **Block of space will be vacated in the upcoming quarter
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
5
Vacancy improves, but outlook is still weak
• The direct vacancy rate decreased during the quarter to 15.9 percent as a result of positive absorption in the CBD. The total vacancy rate (which includes sublease space) also decreased. • Obama for America signed a short-term lease in the East Loop at One Prudential Plaza. While this absorption is positive right now, the space will be vacated at the end of 2012. Combined with Groupon's short-term space at 303 East Wacker, the possibility of high future vacancy looms. • OUTLOOK: MB Real Estate expects direct vacancy to be volatile through the intermediate term, bumping between slightly positive and negative changes with the peak still to come.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
VACANCY RATES
HISTORIC YEAR-END DIRECT VACANCY: DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM YEAR-END 2011 DEMAND
HISTORIC YEAR-END VACANCY MARKET STATISTICS BY BUILDING CLASS: CLASS A & B IMPROVES
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
6
Velocity remains elevated with numerous expansions
• The largest transaction of the quarter involves Wells Fargo, which leased 293,000 square feet at 10 and 30 South Wacker. Operations are being consolidated from multiple locations throughout the CBD, and most of the space will not be occupied until 2013, providing no immediate boost to the market. • Groupon remains in the headlines, subleasing a large block of space at 600 West Chicago from Bankers Life and Casualty Company to expand its presence at its headquarters. In turn, Bankers Life is moving to the East Loop in 2012, backfilling Blue Cross Blue Shield space at 111 East Wacker. Between Obama for America, Bankers Life, and McKinsey’s upcoming relocation to 300 East Randolph, the East Loop was the most active submarket this quarter. However, only the first transaction results in positive absorption today.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LARGE DEALS
• Unlike recent quarters, the CBD failed to attract tenants from Suburban Chicago or other markets this quarter. The largest deals represent shifts around the CBD with companies, such as Wells Fargo, consolidating locations. PrivateBank's expansion at 120 South LaSalle represents the largest net addition to occupancy this quarter as they also removed space at 70 West Madison from the sublease market. DEMAND
• Companies, such as United Airlines, have earned major incentives from tax increment financing (TIF) to relocate to the CBD. New Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has pledged to review TIF incentives, which could bode poorly for future transactions. On the other hand, companies like GE Capital and Allscripts have already pledged to bring jobs to the CBD without incentives. • OUTLOOK: Several of the largest tenants tracked, including Wells Fargo and McKinsey, made leasing decisions this quarter, and few large tenants have entered the market. While some are still in the pipeline, a flurry of activity is not expected.
LARGE LEASE TRANSACTIONS NEW Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Wells Fargo & Co. Bankers Life and Casualty Company Marsh McKinsey & Co. GE Railcar Legal Assistance Foundation Obama for America Chicago Community Trust Ifbyphone Total - 9 Spaces
New New Relo New New Relo New Relo New
West Loop East Loop West Loop East Loop Central Loop Central Loop East Loop East Loop West Loop
10 & 30 S Wacker 111 E Wacker 540 W Madison 300 E Randolph 161 N Clark 120 S LaSalle 130 E Randolph 225 N Michigan 300 W Adams
Size (sf)
Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Size (sf)
Groupon Accenture Bryan Cave Private Bank Hostway Corporation Strata Marketing Sanchez, Daniels, & Hoffman Stout Risius Ross Chicago Board of Options Exchange Guerrero Howe National Able Network Total - 11 Spaces
Sub Ren/Cont Ren/Cont Exp Ren Ren/Exp Ren Ren Ren Sub Sub
River North Central Loop Central Loop Central Loop West Loop Central Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop East Loop West Loop
600 W Chicago 161 N Clark 161 N Clark 120 S LaSalle 100 N Riverside 30 W Monroe 333 W Wacker 1 S Wacker 111 W Jackson 205 N Michigan 567 W Lake
220,000 160,000 62,000 57,200 52,660 25,153 25,000 24,760 23,828 22,125 21,770 694,496
293,000 134,724 120,000 100,000 64,000 55,756 50,000 23,700 20,986 862,166
RENEWAL/EXPANSION/SUBLEASE
Abbreviations: Cont - Contraction
Exp - Expansion
Relo - Relocation
Ren - Renewal
Sub - Sublease
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
7
West Loop, East Loop and River North all post positive absorption
• Absorption in the second quarter was 280,000 square and was positive for the second time since the downturn. The West Loop and River North continued to see occupancy rise with the East Loop experiencing positive absorption for the first time in several quarters. All segments of the Central Loop lost occupancy, although the Class A segment had been positive in previous quarters. • Demand continues to increase in Class A and B properties. Class B experienced the strongest positive absorption this quarter as the flight-to-quality has started to filter down and help improve that segment of the market. • One significant risk to the sector involves the federal government’s office space plans. The Obama administration has ordered the GSA to reduce its portfolio to eliminate underutilized space. More than 14,000 buildings have been identified for elimination nationwide. With a large presence in the CBD, which acts as the Midwest hub for federal government offices, the impact could be detrimental.
HISTORIC ABSORPTION: POSITIVE YEAR-TO-DATE, BUT WILL IT CONTINUE?
DEMAND
• OUTLOOK: Increasingly efficient floor plans, telecommuting, and reduced storage and server space are all long-term negatives that weigh on occupancy in the office market. Although jobs will eventually return, other obstacles await the office market.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
ABSORPTION
HISTORIC ABSORPTION BY SUBMARKET: EAST LOOP, WEST LOOP, AND RIVER NORTH POSITIVE
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
8
Sharp drop in Class B rates likely spurred absorption
• Lease metrics are compared on a four-quarter basis instead of calendar year, allowing full years of data comparison. • Class A initial net rental rates for both new and renewal transactions have increased 3.7 and 6.6 percent respectively in the trailing fourquarter period compared to the previous year. While these indicate a strengthening, it is also coupled with an increase in average tenant improvement allowance and a slight increase in abatement package duration. Class A rents are the most responsive to market changes, spiking during a healthy market, but falling rapidly during recession. • The sharp drop in Class B average initial net rental rates of 9.2 percent occurred as concessions were reduced in this segment of the market. The decrease in rental rates likely compelled leasing activity in this segment of the market, which experienced positive absorption for the first time in several years as fundamentals finally reached equilibrium. The Class C market continued to deteriorate, with initial rates declining and concession packages rising. The Class C market suffers as tenants trade up in other segments due to falling rents.
• OUTLOOK: Class A rental rates will continue to increase, but will still be offset by concessions to attract tenants. The uptick in absorption in the Class B segment may signal a turning point and allow its rental rates to increase in future quarters.
AVERAGE LEASE TERMS ON NEW AND RENEWAL DEALS NEW DEALS
AVERAGE INITIAL RATE
AVERAGE TENANT IMPROVEMENT
AVERAGE ABATEMENT (MONTHS)
AVERAGE TERM (YEARS)
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
3Q2010 - 2Q2011
$20.30
$13.89
$11.61
$47.07
$22.97
$20.29
8.4
6.7
6.9
8.5
6.8
5.8
3Q2009 - 2Q2010
$19.57
$15.31
$11.74
$38.42
$28.25
$18.90
8.3
6.8
5.3
7.9
6.6
5.8
3Q2008 - 2Q2009
$21.76
$16.45
$13.38
$42.61
$35.15
$33.84
6.0
4.4
4.4
8.6
7.0
7.9
3Q2007 - 2Q2008
$20.66
$16.71
$14.40
$42.65
$36.95
$25.37
4.7
3.7
3.7
7.9
6.6
6.9
3Q2006 - 2Q2007
$18.63
$14.22
$14.10
$50.16
$41.59
$17.83
5.8
5.6
2.8
8.7
7.3
5.1
3Q2005 - 2Q2006
$17.85
$13.18
$12.72
$46.60
$36.29
$20.77
6.7
5.0
2.5
8.4
7.1
5.8
3Q2004 - 2Q2005
$16.86
$12.81
$9.68
$42.68
$44.19
$25.75
7.1
7.3
4.4
10.0
8.8
6.4
3Q2003 - 2Q2004
$17.16
$12.45
$8.88
$42.32
$37.40
$17.71
5.2
5.8
3.9
8.9
8.3
6.7
3Q2002 - 2Q2003
$20.75
$15.12
$11.92
$36.88
$36.22
$22.46
1.3
4.3
1.7
8.0
9.2
6.0
3Q2001 - 2Q2002
$22.92
$16.19
$15.16
$26.31
$26.50
$28.49
1.1
0.7
1.4
7.0
8.4
7.6
3Q2000 - 2Q2001
$21.94
$16.04
$15.37
$28.21
$24.79
$29.10
0.8
0.1
0.0
7.6
7.2
5.8
3Q1999 - 2Q2000
$20.77
$15.82
$12.66
$25.76
$26.78
$22.75
0.1
0.0
0.1
8.3
7.3
6.7
3Q1998 - 2Q1999
$19.21
$14.09
$15.73
$20.38
$27.21
$26.73
0.2
0.4
0.0
7.3
7.2
8.2
RENEWAL DEALS
AVERAGE INITIAL RATE
AVERAGE TENANT IMPROVEMENT
A
B
C
A
3Q2010 - 2Q2011
$19.67
$14.30
$10.79
3Q2009 - 2Q2010
$18.46
$15.59
$11.01
3Q2008 - 2Q2009
$20.23
$17.15
3Q2007 - 2Q2008
$22.72
3Q2006 - 2Q2007
$16.26
3Q2005 - 2Q2006
F E AT U R E S
• The average lease length has increased this period, signaling that tenants are willing to make longer-term commitments.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LEASE COMPARABLES
AVERAGE ABATEMENT (MONTHS)
AVERAGE TERM (YEARS)
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
$21.10
$9.45
$11.12
5.2
3.9
5.1
6.5
4.4
5.5
$13.92
$9.59
$5.49
5.1
3.6
4.1
5.4
4.7
4.8
$15.33
$19.21
$16.69
$15.69
3.0
3.6
2.8
5.9
5.6
7.0
$15.73
$14.77
$22.75
$15.42
$16.69
3.9
2.1
2.3
7.2
5.4
6.7
$14.02
$15.42
$16.19
$16.94
$9.22
4.2
2.5
1.7
6.2
6.5
5.4
$16.64
$13.33
$15.76
$25.84
$16.58
$8.99
4.8
3.3
0.4
7.8
6.5
5.2
3Q2004 - 2Q2005
$15.97
$12.47
$11.57
$21.54
$22.76
$5.31
3.6
3.1
1.0
7.5
7.9
4.7
3Q2003 - 2Q2004
$18.28
$13.43
$9.71
$23.96
$17.21
$10.78
2.5
3.7
1.1
8.9
6.9
6.7
3Q2002 - 2Q2003
$20.76
$14.26
$10.68
$14.49
$13.31
$7.78
0.7
1.8
0.0
6.8
7.1
6.6
3Q2001 - 2Q2002
$22.68
$16.32
$13.10
$16.94
$13.68
$7.38
0.7
0.7
0.1
7.1
6.6
4.6
3Q2000 - 2Q2001
$22.58
$16.47
$14.11
$8.42
$8.94
$4.75
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.6
7.3
3.3
3Q1999 - 2Q2000
$20.72
$15.03
$13.77
$13.81
$14.19
$10.38
0.1
0.0
0.0
6.1
6.9
6.6
3Q1998 - 2Q1999
$21.21
$12.05
$13.46
$11.47
$12.79
$7.59
0.0
0.0
0.2
6.8
5.3
4.0
All rates are shown as net and do not include tax and operating costs for building. Numbers will be revised as new data are reported in subsequent quarters
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
9
Sales offerings surge
• Investment sales offerings are especially active, though few sales closed during the quarter. The current listings are fairly reactionary due to successful recent sales. Massachusetts-based CommonWealth REIT bought 233 North Michigan this quarter and has 600 West Chicago under contract. Although CommonWealth REIT owns properties in the Chicago suburbs, these purchases mark its entrance to the CBD. • Nationally, debt financing is more readily available. The CMBS market has returned. Nonetheless, the delinquency rate for Chicagoland's commercial real estate is now 7.7 percent after a short-term improvement. National office prices are down 48.9 percent from peak according to Moody's Commercial Property Price Index. Together, these factors do not bode well for price appreciation.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
INVESTMENT SALES
• OUTLOOK: Sellers that tested the market at the end of 2010 successfully sold for capitalization rates that neared the peak of the market. With 15 office buildings currently on the market, momentum is likely to be strong.
Building Address
Sale Date
Size (sf)
Price
Price per sf * Class Seller
Status (Buyer or Listing Agent)
233 S Wacker
New On Market
3,781,045
$1,500,000,000 $397
A
Joseph Chetrit, Israel Marketing (Eastdil Secured & Gluck & Joseph Moinian Newmark Knight Frank)
1 N Wacker 141 W Jackson
New On Market New On Market
1,400,000 1,400,000
$580,000,000 $414
A B
Hines (1-50% Stake) CME Group
311 S Wacker 55 W Monroe 541 N Fairbanks 22 W Washington 35 W Wacker 233 N Michigan 200 S Wacker 29 E Madison 11 E Adams 8 S Michigan 68 E Wacker
New On Market New On Market New On Market New On Market Under Contract 2nd Qtr 2011 2nd Qtr 2011
1,281,000 803,046 541,600 440,000 1,118,042 980,362 754,751
$390,000,000 $304 $150,000,000 $187 $210,000,000 $400,000,000 $162,200,000 $117,777,777
$477 $358 $165 $156
A A A B A B A
Mark Karasick LaSalle Inv. Mgmt Golub & Co. Golub & Co. Piedmont Parkway Properties Behringer Harvard
Marketing (Eastdil Secured) Marketing (Jones Lang LaSalle & Holly Duran Real Estate Partners) Marketing (CB Richard Ellis) Marketing (Jones Lang LaSalle) Marketing (Eastdil Secured) Marketing (Holliday Fenoglio Fowler) UBS Realty CommonWealth REIT Equity Group Inv & Transwestern
2nd Qtr 2011
571,527
$18,500,000
$65
C
Winthrop Realty Trust
Marc Realty
2nd Qtr 2011
78,775
$9,700,000 $123
C
Sam Roti
Aries Capital LLC
70 W Madison 444 N Michigan 200 W Jackson 32 W Randolph 215 W Ohio 600 W Chicago
On Market On Market On Market On Market On Market Under Contract
1,439,369 516,797 476,711 226,666 52,742 1,567,592
$340,000,000 $236 $100,000,000 $193
A B B C C B
Hines GLL Properties Apollo Investment David & Barbara Kalish Bold Development David Werner, Jacob & Victor Gerstein
Marketing (Eastdil Secured) Marketing (Holliday Fenoglio Fowler) Marketing (Holliday Fenoglio Fowler) Marketing (CB Richard Ellis) Marketing CommonWealth REIT
111 W Jackson
1st Qtr 2011
528,104
$35,000,000
$66
C
P&S Limited Partnership JV - David Werner & Berkley
71 S Wacker 353 N Clark 300 S Riverside 225 W Washington 65 E Wacker 79 W Monroe 820 S Michigan 238 S Wabash
4th Qtr 2010 4th Qtr 2010 4th Qtr 2010 4th Qtr 2010 4th Qtr 2010 4th Qtr 2010 4th Qtr 2010 4th Qtr 2010
1,490,825 1,173,643 1,075,907 483,497 220,000 199,824 127,153 90,312
$625,000,000 $$385,000,000 $189,000,000 $60,000,000 $14,900,000 ~$10,000,000 $8,000,000 -
$419 $$328 $176 $124 $68 ~$50 $63 -
A A A A C C C C
Pritzker Realty Group Mesirow Financial Brookfield Prop. Avestus Capital The Griffith Group Bank of America Johnson Publishing Cook County Sheriff
Irvine Cos. Tishman-Speyer Properties L.P. David Werner and Joseph Mizrachi KTC Properties The Private Bank Farbman Corp. Columbia College LaSalle 115 Holdings
300 N LaSalle
3rd Qtr 2010
1,300,000
$655,000,000 $503
A
Hines Interests
KBS Realty Advisors
$19,500,000 $86 $390,000,000 $249
F E AT U R E S
INVESTMENT SALES: INFLUX OF PROPERTIES ON THE MARKET
Price per sf (square foot) - based off estimated selling price for new to market buildings
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
10
Recovery will take many years; sector faces extreme headwinds
Tenants are expanding before employment data warrants it, muddling the forecast. Tenants such as Groupon and Private Bank are growing rapidly. Suburban tenants such as Sara Lee are seeking space in the CBD. These large tenant decisions have helped the market gain traction. With the quarter’s positive absorption, occupancy is currently 1.0 percent off its 2007 peak. This compares to a 6.3 percent employment loss. During past recessions, there was a strong correlation between the two metrics, which leads to a forecast of future occupancy declines.
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (sf)
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (sf)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
120,244,884 120,434,748 119,972,770 118,691,577 121,440,276 122,776,164 124,713,268 125,037,423 126,452,643 128,385,650 126,478,575 125,626,639 125,269,078 130,038,076 130,539,796 130,583,749 130,583,749
101,285,488 104,939,294 106,058,995 106,744,585 109,533,759 108,743,284 107,598,500 106,754,119 106,568,104 105,737,728 108,402,912 110,969,808 110,833,045 110,112,891 109,602,891 109,278,524 109,035,250
1996-2010 Absorption Avg:
605,567
YTD 2011 Absorption:
255,950
Direct Vacancy % 15.8% 12.9% 11.6% 10.1% 9.8% 11.4% 13.7% 14.6% 15.7% 17.6% 14.3% 11.7% 11.5% 15.3% 16.0% 16.3% 16.5%
F E AT U R E S
While population growth and a gradual shift of the economy from goods-producing industries to serviceproducing industries should propel growth in occupancy, there are numerous headwinds working against the office market. Companies are able to create more efficient floorplans. Archives are going digital; server rooms are being replaced by cloud technology. New healthcare legislation will encourage more contracting instead of hiring; contractors will not need designated space. The federal government must lighten its debt burden, and 14,000 of its buildings have been marked as underutilized and could be sold, flooding the market.
Year
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
FORECAST
Total projected inventory based on addition of projects currently under construction Occupancy is forecast based on proprietary assumptions regarding the
It is becoming increasingly likely that the office space recovery will be drawn out, with slight swings of positive and negative absorption for several years. On a net basis, occupancy must still decline to match jobs.
Chicago MSA’s total employment change and the office industry’s historical performance which trails the overall economy.
HISTORIC & PROJECTED VACANCY: OCCUPANCY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
11
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SUBMARKET MAP
F E AT U R E S SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
12
CENTRAL LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
13,553,757
68,421
(32,289)
1,334,004
9.8%
12,219,753
308,476
12.1%
Class B
14,000,312
(91,587)
(48,286)
2,503,380
17.9%
11,496,932
474,237
21.3%
Class C
8,619,499
(213,183)
(93,197)
1,414,643
16.4%
7,204,856
144,348
18.1%
Total
36,173,568
(236,349)
(173,772)
5,252,027
14.5%
30,921,541
927,061
17.1%
EAST LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
4,001,516
(71,578)
54,897
1,087,471
27.2%
2,914,044
187,252
31.9%
Class B
10,193,867
212,175
163,427
2,231,622
21.9%
7,962,245
253,737
24.4%
Class C
8,484,560
(52,983)
(20,034)
1,173,849
13.8%
7,310,711
26,790
14.2%
Total
22,679,942
87,614
198,290
4,492,942
19.8%
18,187,000
467,779
21.9%
N. MICHIGAN AVE.
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) % 23.5%
Class A
3,952,669
(49,933)
(21,064)
796,367
20.1%
3,156,302
133,092
Class B
4,622,071
(43,610)
(37,240)
1,109,234
24.0%
3,512,837
143,922
27.1%
Class C
4,448,708
(32,882)
(19,176)
588,549
13.2%
3,860,159
47,766
14.3%
Total
13,023,448
(126,424)
(77,480)
2,494,150
19.2%
10,529,298
324,780
21.6%
RIVER NORTH
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
4,011,664
(9,633)
37,212
631,089
15.7%
3,380,575
108,858
18.4%
Class B
3,545,977
142,067
74,842
265,070
7.5%
3,280,908
340,597
17.1%
Class C
5,772,321
13,260
18,942
749,718
13.0%
5,022,603
263,723
17.6%
Total
13,329,962
145,694
130,996
1,645,877
12.3%
11,684,086
713,178
17.7%
SOUTH LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
1,019,325
(45,466)
(6,812)
141,502
13.9%
877,823
12,809
15.1%
Class C
1,291,743
(19,461)
(4,085)
322,222
24.9%
969,520
2,005
25.1%
Total
2,311,068
(64,927)
(10,897)
463,724
20.1%
1,847,343
14,814
20.7%
WEST LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
26,843,953
314,155
162,621
4,007,759
14.9%
22,836,194
748,551
17.7%
Class B
9,720,250
86,757
45,578
1,243,709
12.8%
8,476,541
214,992
15.0%
Class C
6,501,558
49,431
4,887
1,124,720
17.3%
5,376,838
44,969
18.0%
Total
43,065,761
450,343
213,086
6,376,188
14.8%
36,689,573
1,008,512
17.1%
TOTALS
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
53,382,883
205,965
194,564
7,998,192
15.0%
45,384,691
1,499,038
17.8%
Class B
42,082,477
305,803
198,321
7,353,015
17.5%
34,729,462
1,427,485
20.9%
Class C
35,118,389
(255,818)
(112,663)
5,373,701
15.3%
29,744,688
529,601
16.8%
Total CBD
130,583,749
255,950
280,223
20,724,907
15.9%
109,858,841
3,456,124
18.5%
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
F E AT U R E S
Class A
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
MARKET STATISTICS
13
SUBURBAN CHICAGO EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Widespread negative absorption continued in the second quarter in Suburban Chicago. In contrast to the CBD, much of the losses in occupancy have already filtered through the market, but further negativity is likely, especially as tenants such as United Airlines leave in favor of the CBD.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
SECTION THREE
Key Indicators: • The direct vacancy rate increased in all classes and submarkets except the East-West submarket. The Class B market is now performing worse than the Class C market, evidence of the glut of space and that the flight-to-quality trend is not as prevalent in Suburban Chicago. • Overall sublease availability decreased during the quarter, although a large block listed by AT&T will impact the market. Several large blocks of sublease availability are due to expire by the end of the year but will likely switch to direct availability. • Leasing activity decreased from last quarter with little activity for new, large transactions. • Asking rents have improved in the Class A segment of the market, although demand fundamentals do not warrant an improvement as it is still losing occupancy. Asking rents continue to fall for Class B and C space. • The potential for formerly single-tenant corporate campuses to enter the multi-tenant market weighs on Suburban Chicago. With United Airlines leaving for the CBD, Sara Lee exploring a similar move, AT&T and Motorola shedding space, and Sears looking to relocate out of state, the potential for numerous vacant corporate campuses is high. • Unlike the CBD, there are no potential office developments making headlines. The only project underway is the build-to-suit headquarters for Astellas Pharma US in Glenview, which has created a large block of sublease availability at its former location in Deerfield. Occupancy has decreased 6.9 percent in Suburban Chicago compared to a 7.5 percent peak-to-trough total employment loss. Corporate defections as well as underutilized space remain the biggest risks to the market because companies have leased more space than they need and will reduce square footage upon lease expiration.
SUBURBAN VACANCY AND YEAR-TO-DATE ABSORPTION SUMMARY Direct Vacancy 2Q2011 East-West North Northwest O'Hare Suburban Chicago Total Net Absorption 2Q2011 East-West North Northwest O'Hare Suburban Chicago Total
A
Change from 1Q2011
B
Change from 1Q2011
C
Change from 1Q2011
Total
Change from 1Q2011
20.8% 19.2% 21.0% 20.4% 20.4%
-0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
23.8% 22.1% 34.4% 32.4% 27.3%
0.3% 1.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.7%
23.0% 21.7% 30.0% 36.4% 26.8%
-0.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2%
22.2% 20.2% 26.0% 26.7% 23.3%
-0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7%
A
B
C
Total
62,935 (22,626) (78,689) 5,571 (32,810)
(39,451) (31,795) (157,573) (26,627) (255,446)
38,155 (56,319) 4,223 (11,128) (25,069)
61,639 ( 110,741) ( 232,039) ( 32,184) (313,325)
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
14
Lackluster demand does not warrant development
• With vacancy rising in Suburban Chicago, a multitude of options exists for tenants looking to expand or relocate. There is no demand for new construction, as existing landlords aggressively compete for tenants. The Producer Price Index was up 7.5 percent year-overyear in May due to the increase in diesel fuel, copper, and steel prices. Rising construction prices will require higher rents to justify new construction, further weighing against the likelihood of development.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
• Companies that demand new, premier space are the only exception, and may build new space to suit their needs. Besides several noncompetitive medical office developments, the only office construction underway is the North American headquarters for Astellas Pharma US in Glenview. The development is a build-to-suit project with MB Real Estate managing the construction. • The Bridge Development spec construction at 555 Aptakisic Road in Lincolnshire is finally under contract to a tenant that intends to lease the entire 160,000 square foot building. Details of the lease are forthcoming, but move-in is expected in December. The two-year lag between delivery and move-in will be a strong deterrent for developers. S U P P LY
• OUTLOOK: Suburban Chicago is not supply constrained. Numerous parcels are ready for development once demand warrants it, which will always keep rent growth to inflationary levels. Between shrinking occupancy and constrained financing, speculative development is unlikely for several years.
NEW DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 2010 Deliveries Building Address
Size (sf)
% Leased
Submarket
Comments
1901 Chestnut Ave, Glenview
110,000
100.0%
North
9501 Technology Blvd, Rosemont
119,000
74.8%
O'Hare
Delivered September 2010. Build-to-suit Headquarters for General Board of Pension & Health Benefits of The United Methodist Church. Construction managed by MB Real Estate. Delivered April 2010. Rosemont Corporate Center. Tenants: Cisco, Skyline Advanced Tech. Developed by Ryan Companies.
85,000
100.0%
East-West
Delivered March 2010. Tenants: Delta Dental, Ryan Companies. Developed by Ryan Companies.
% Leased
Submarket
Comments
111 Shuman Blvd, Naperville
Total - 3 Propperties
314,,000
2011 Deliveries Building Address
Size (sf)
Total - 0 Propperties
Under Construction Building Address
Size (sf) % Pre-leased
1 Astellas Pky, Glenview
440,000
Total - 1 Proppertyy
440,,000
100.0%
Due Date
Comments
Fall 2012
Broke ground April 2010. Build-to-suit North American Headquarters for Astellas Pharma US. Construction managed by MB Real Estate.
Due Date
Comments
Proposed Building Address
Size (sf) % Pre-leased
Total - 0 Properties
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
15
Total sublease availability substantially reduced; more to come
• As in the CBD, the total square footage of sublease availability continued its decline in Suburban Chicago. Three large sublease blocks are scheduled to roll to directly available space in the third quarter, further reducing the inventory. • AT&T is listing its more than 1.2 million square foot campus in Hoffman Estates. It has been single-tenant and therefore not competitive but is a prime example of how the single-tenant market can impact the multi-tenant one in times of distress. Astellas Pharma US listed its space in Deerfield for sublease in preparation of moving into its new build-to-suit headquarters in Glenview next year.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
SUBLEASE SPACE
• OUTLOOK: When the market is at equilibrium, roughly 3 million square feet of sublease space is available, meaning there is room for reduction. As leases expire and switch to direct availability, sublease availability will decrease.
HISTORIC YEAR-END SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY: BELOW PREVIOUS RECESSION HIGHS S U P P LY
LARGE BLOCKS (OVER 50,000 SQUARE FEET) OF SUBLEASE SPACE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE Class A Building Address
Occupancy
Expiration
Submarket
Sublandlord
2000 W AT&T Dr, Hoffman Estates 3 Overlook Pt, Lincolnshire 4201 Winfield Rd, Warrenville 3 Parkway Blvd N, Deerfield 75 N Fairway Dr, Dr Vernon Hills 1600 McConnor Pky, Schaumburg 1600 McConnor Pky, Schaumburg 1450 American Ln, Schaumburg 1200 Lakeside Dr, Bannockburn 410 Warrenville Rd, Lisle
1,207,245 Vacant 290,143 Vacant 249,996 January 2012 232,836 July 2012 150 258 150,258 Vacant 86,919 Vacant 80,760 Vacant 65,259 Negotiable 63,328 Vacant 60,434 Vacant
August 2016 February 2017 December 2014 December 2011 August 2011 August 2011 October 2016 August 2011 May 2013
Northwest North East-West North North Northwest Northwest Northwest North East-West
AT&T Hewitt Associates Navistar Astellas Pharma US Washington Mutual Ameriquest Mortgage Company Ameriquest Mortgage Company Zurich American Insurance Company RR Donnelley IKON Office Solutions
Total - 10 Spaces
2,487,178
Size (sf)
Class B Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Submarket
Sublandlord
6200 S Route 53, Lisle 5450 N Cumberland Ave, Chicago 750 N Commons Dr, Aurora
360,000 118,666 60,000
Vacant Negotiable Negotiable
July 2012 February 2020 September 2017
East-West O'Hare East-West
Telcordia Technologies Océ-USA Holding Inc Westell Technologies
Total - 3 Spaces
538,666
Building Address
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
16
Large space availabilities reduced but tenants still have wide range of choices
• The total number of large blocks and its square footage reduced during the quarter. Despite this, there were some large blocks added during the quarter. Ninety large blocks of direct space are now available in Suburban Chicago. • Part of the large block, 84,000 square feet at 1200 Warrenville Road in the East-West submarket, was taken off the market as the landlord performs base building renovation. In the Northwest submarket, Valtera Corporation renewed and expanded at 1701 Golf Road to cut that large block by 20 percent.
CLASS B Building Address
City
1200 Warrenville Rd ** 28100 Torch Pky 2400 Cabot Dr * 3800 Golf Rd ** 544 Lakeview Pky 2350-2360 E Devon Ave 4 Corporate Dr 1 Salem Lake Dr 700 N Wood Dale Rd 2850 W Golf Rd 703-709 W Algonquin Rd 4242 N Harlem Ave 800 Jorie Blvd 975 Meridian Lakes Dr 1501 Feehanville Dr 1245 Corporate Blvd 814 Commerce Dr 27545 Diehl Rd 9801 W Higgins Rd 1000 Lakeside Dr 6400 Shafer Ct 1000 E Woodfield Rd 702-704 Deerpath Dr 2400 E Devon Ave 24 Blocks of Space
Naperville Warrenville Lisle Rolling Meadows Vernon Hills Des Plaines Long Grove Long Grove Wood Dale Rolling Meadows Arlington Heights Norridge Oak Brook Aurora Mount Prospect Aurora Oak Brook Warrenville Rosemont Bannockburn Rosemont Schaumburg Vernon Hills Des Plaines
Size (sf)
Submarket
245,514 203,842 194,052 156,574 144,999 142,596 141,079 140,252 125,328 110,942 96,213 93,155 88,886 74,266 71,310 69,965 66,882 62,440 57,994 56,745 56,219 51,410 51,221 51,000 2,552,884
East-West East-West East-West Northwest North O'Hare North Northwest Northwest Northwest Northwest O'Hare East-West East-West Northwest East-West East-West East-West O'Hare North O'Hare Northwest North O'Hare
Size (sf)
Submarket
206,770 195,393 75,996 51,845 530,004
Northwest Northwest North East-West
CLASS C Building Address
City
3501 Algonquin Rd 1299 Algonquin Rd 2-4-6 Genesee St 1950 S Batavia Ave 4 Blocks of Space
Rolling Meadows Schaumburg Waukegan Geneva
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market * Block of space is for future occupancy ** Block of space will be vacated during the upcoming quarter
City
21440 Lake Cook Rd 1600 McConnor Pky ** 1200 Lakeside Dr ** 700 Oakmont Ln 1701 Golf Rd 3075 Highland Pky * 1 Corporate Dr 150 NW Point Blvd 1415 W Diehl Rd 425 N Martingale Rd 1 Overlook Pt 3333 Beverly Rd 2895 Greenspoint Pky 9525 W Bryn Mawr Ave 1701 Golf Rd 1707 N Randall Rd 1707 N Randall Rd 9700 W Higgins Rd 2355 Waukegan Rd 25 Tri State International * 1333 Butterfield Rd 1011 Warrenville Rd 8700 W Bryn Mawr Ave 1 Pierce Pl 3333 Warrenville Rd 8700 W Bryn Mawr Ave * 3500 Lacey Rd * 5550 Prairie Stone Pky 850-860 Technology Way 2655 Warrenville Rd 333 Knightsbridge Pky 18W140 Butterfield Rd 75 Tri State International * 540 Lake Cook Rd * 2100 Sanders Rd 9500 W Bryn Mawr Ave 1000 Royce Blvd 535 E Diehl Rd 300 Park Blvd 701 Warrenville Rd 4201 Lake Cook Rd 1001 Warrenville Rd 2 Corporate Dr 100 S Saunders Rd 2001 Butterfield Rd 2 Pierce Pl 300 Knightsbridge Pky 700 Commerce Dr 1 Tower Ln 9500 W Bryn Mawr Ave * 2333 Waukegan Rd 9500 W Bryn Mawr Ave * 2100 Enterprise Ave 1700 E Golf Rd 2550 W Golf Rd 7400 N Caldwell Ave 2701 Patriot Blvd 3000 Lakeside Dr 2800 W Higgins Rd 1007 Church St 1650 Lake Cook Rd * 8725-8745 W Higgins Rd 62 Blocks of Space
Deer Park Schaumburg Bannockburn Westmont Rolling Meadows Downers Grove Long Grove Elk Grove Village Naperville Schaumburg Lincolnshire Hoffman Estates Hoffman Estates Rosemont Rolling Meadows Elgin Elgin Rosemont Bannockburn Lincolnshire Downers Grove Lisle Chicago Itasca Lisle Chicago Downers Grove Hoffman Estates Libertyville Downers Grove Lincolnshire Oakbrook Terrace Lincolnshire Deerfield Northbrook Rosemont Oakbrook Terrace Naperville Itasca Lisle Northbrook Lisle Long Grove Lake Forest Downers Grove Itasca Lincolnshire Oak Brook Oakbrook Terrace Rosemont Bannockburn Rosemont Geneva Schaumburg Rolling Meadows Niles Glenview Bannockburn Hoffman Estates Evanston Deerfield Chicago
Size (sf)
Submarket
351,425 300,686 257,190 256,767 234,287 228,764 201,509 176,844 168,000 155,559 148,686 129,000 127,941 113,868 112,414 109,076 109,076 107,617 106,495 103,742 102,096 101,172 97,801 97,517 89,334 88,409 88,199 84,617 78,000 76,691 74,728 74,259 73,857 72,580 72,565 72,149 70,000 67,731 67,307 67,233 66,000 65,441 64,370 62,481 61,758 60,904 59,606 58,203 57,426 56,554 56,543 56,471 55,584 54,496 54,148 54,000 53,671 53,316 52,918 52,045 52,000 50,214 6,373,340
Northwest Northwest North East-West Northwest East-West North Northwest East-West Northwest North Northwest Northwest O'Hare Northwest Northwest Northwest O'Hare North North East-West East-West O'Hare Northwest East-West O'Hare East-West Northwest North East-West North East-West North North North O'Hare East-West East-West Northwest East-West North East-West North North East-West Northwest North East-West East-West O'Hare North O'Hare East-West Northwest Northwest North North North Northwest North North O'Hare
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
S U P P LY
• The largest addition to availability is in the East-West submarket, where almost 230,000 square feet is now available for October 2012 occupancy at 3075 Highland Parkway. RR Donnelly, Key Bank, and Sodexho will be vacating space.
CLASS A Building Address
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
LARGE BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
17
Vacancy rises; Companies look to move from Suburban Chicago
• The direct vacancy rate reached 23.3 percent, a 0.2 percent increase from last quarter. The total vacancy rate remains unchanged at 26.2 percent as sublease availability reductions balance the result. Class A vacancy remains unchanged from the first quarter. At 20.4 percent, its direct vacancy is the lowest among the classes, but still well above a level that could drive rent growth.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
VACANCY RATES
• Class B space experienced the largest surge in direct vacancy, which is now higher than the Class C direct vacancy rate. The North and Northwest submarkets experienced the most deterioration in Class B occupancy fundamentals. • Overall, the East-West submarket was the only one to improve with its direct vacancy rate dropping slightly to 22.2 percent. The North submarket still has the lowest direct vacancy rate, but has recently lagged behind the rest of the market. • OUTLOOK: Pervasive weakness continues in Suburban Chicago. Companies that built huge campuses on the outskirts of the city are reevaluating their real estate plans, including AT&T, Sears, Motorola, and Sara Lee. DEMAND
HISTORIC YEAR-END VACANCY RATES BY SUBMARKET: NORTHWEST AND O’HARE LAG
HISTORIC YEAR-END VACANCY RATES BY CLASS: B AND C PROPERTIES MORE THAN 1/4 VACANT
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
18
Large transactions do not generate much new occupancy for the market
• Overall leasing activity among large transactions increased, driven by CVS Caremark's large renewals in the North and Northwest submarkets. • Activity for new, large transactions was light with the largest being only 80,000 square feet. A majority of these transactions were relocations within the submarket, which fail to generate new demand. Several of these represent contractions. The U.S. Military Entrance Processing Command is cutting their space in O'Hare by more than one-third while RFIDeas is consolidating facilities from Batavia and Naperville.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
LARGE DEALS
• TCF Financial subleased 45,000 square feet from PepsiCo in Schaumburg. Along with Bank of America's renewal, the financial sector was active this quarter.
• OUTLOOK: Increased leasing activity is expected as tenants are forced to make decisions. Expect more companies to contract when they sign new leases. With many traditionally single-tenant corporate campuses no longer desired by tenants, such as United Airlines and AT&T, they may enter the competitive space market.
DEMAND
• Five out of eight renewal/sublease transactions occurred in the struggling Northwest submarket. This may suggest some success in its fight to keep tenants.
LARGE LEASE TRANSACTIONS: NEW ACTIVITY IS MUTED NEW Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Sysmex Sickich American Board of Radiology U.S. Military Entrance Processing Command SHC Direct Centene Corporation RFIDeas Total - 7 Deals
Relo Relo New Relo Relo New Relo
North East-West O'Hare O'Hare East-West East-West Northwest
555 Aptakisic Rd, Lincolnshire 1415 W Diehl Rd, Naperville 5440 N Cumberland Ave, Chicago 8700 W Bryn Mawr, Chicago 1815 S Meyers Rd, Oakbrook Terrace 999 Oakmont Plaza Dr, Westmont 4020 Winnetka Ave, Rolling Meadows
Submarket
Building Address
North Northwest Northwest Northwest Northwest Northwest Northwest Northwest East-West North
2211-2215 Sanders Rd, Northbrook 800 Biermann Ct, Mount Prospect 930 National Pky, Schaumburg 1600 Corporate Center, Rolling Meadows 3850 N Wilke Rd, Arlington Heights 1475 E Woodfield Rd, Schaumburg 1375 E Woodfield Rd, Schaumburg 1701 Golf Rd, Rolling Meadows 2 Westbrook Corporate Ctr, Westchester 704-708 Deerpath Dr, Vernon Hills
Size (sf) 160,000 80,000 50,000 31,906 22,187 21,966 20,363 386,422
RENEWAL/EXPANSION/SUBLEASE Tenant CVS Caremark CVS Caremark AT&T Bank of America Paylocity TCF Financial Corp. STMicroelectronics Valtera Corp. Healthcare Financial Management Association Toshiba Total - 10 Deals
Abbreviations: Cont - Contraction
Ren Ren Ren Ren Ren/Exp Sub Ren Ren/Exp Ren Exp
Exp - Expansion
Relo - Relocation
Size (sf) 266,000 117,000 106,000 92,825 70,000 45,156 27,000 23,682 23,000 21,030 791,693
Ren - Renewal
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
19
East-West rebounds; what will higher corporate taxes do to tenant demand?
• Absorption was negative in all submarkets except the East-West during the quarter. Year-to-date negative absorption is now 778,000 square feet, rapidly approaching 2010's totals. • OUTLOOK: The state's higher corporate income tax provides further disincentive to tenants to remain in Suburban Chicago and gives rationale to explore moves to other states. While occupancy losses have nearly reached the magnitude of employment losses, factors such as increased taxes may push occupancy losses further.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
ABSORPTION
SUBURBAN CHICAGO ABSORPTION BY CLASS: NEGATIVE ACROSS CLASSES
DEMAND
EAST-WEST
2003
2004
2005
2006
Class A
(1,044,708)
1,080,332
102,299
Class B
(499,928)
(25,541)
389,014
Class C Total
NORTH
2007
2008
2009
2010
YTD 2011
366,688
542,281
(259,973)
(520,909)
(219,164)
19,118
484,869
(203,072)
(2,062)
(461,943)
67,827
(104,885)
(49,662)
76,936
85,269
(125,850)
(108,813)
(87,441)
(217,479)
7,017
36,156
(1,594,298)
1,131,727
576,582
725,707
230,396
(349,476)
(1,200,330)
(144,319)
(49,611)
YTD 2011
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Class A
(617,229)
(10,452)
196,403
(100,049)
615,115
(240,617)
(486,877)
(312,238)
(48,100)
Class B
(51,905)
62,026
164,357
316,207
355,510
(60,982)
(585,395)
(319,078)
(49,173)
Class C
(45,023)
(39,173)
12,697
(39,440)
26,935
(2,048)
(276,642)
(40,044)
(44,852)
(714,157)
12,401
373,457
176,718
997,560
(303,647)
(1,348,914)
(671,360)
(142,126)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YTD 2011
Class A
(280,998)
902,901
225,865
(488,651)
10,333
(302,930)
(213,601)
(21,262)
(191,610)
Class B
(397,531)
233,613
(234,681)
12,266
(164,112)
(261,498)
(680,058)
(295,928)
(295,889)
Total
NORTHWEST
Class C Total
O'HARE
22,431
(13,282)
(216,898)
(15,371)
(51,429)
(28,362)
(32,482)
(192,091)
(26,413)
(656,098)
1,123,232
(225,714)
(491,756)
(205,208)
(592,790)
(926,140)
(509,280)
(513,911)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YTD 2011
Class A
(159,845)
402,561
(55,786)
189,235
11,636
(256,325)
46,459
209,180
8,322
Class B
9,761
(306,424)
53,945
7,915
(81,167)
(51,601)
(291,145)
70,376
(69,871)
Class C
(39,147)
(15,002)
(204,597)
90,170
(50,022)
(35,696)
(366,438)
(10,855)
(11,128)
(189,231)
81,135
(206,438)
287,320
(119,553)
(343,622)
(611,124)
268,701
(72,676)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YTD 2011
Class A
(2,102,780)
2,375,342
468,781
(32,777)
1,179,365
(1,059,845)
(1,174,928)
(343,484)
(212,270)
Class B
(939,603)
(36,326)
372,635
821,257
(92,841)
(376,143)
(2,018,540)
(476,802)
(519,817)
Class C
(111,401)
9,479
(323,529)
(90,491)
(183,329)
(153,547)
(893,040)
(235,972)
(46,236)
(3,153,784)
2,348,495
517,887
697,989
903,195
(1,589,535)
(4,086,509)
(1,056,259)
(778,324)
Total
TOTALS
Total
*Numbers in parentheses are negative
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
20
Class A rents rebound from lows even though demand does not seem to warrant growth
• Over the last four quarters, gross asking rents have stabilized across the market. Increases in Class A rental rates balance small decreases in Class B and larger decreases in Class C. • Among Class A submarkets, only O'Hare has seen rental rates fall over the last year. However, as absorption is still negative, landlords may need to be more aggressive to entice tenants.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
GROSS ASKING RENTS
• The largest decrease occurred in the Northwest submarket in Class C space, where average gross asking rental rates are down 17.3 percent over the last year to stand at a very low $13.55 per square foot. • Compared to peak levels, overall gross asking rents have fallen 13.3 percent.
AVERAGE GROSS ASKING RATES BY CLASS AND SUBMARKET Average Direct Gross Asking Rent East-West North Northwest O'Hare Suburban Chicago Total
A $22.67 $21.43 $22.64 $22.61 $22.33
Change over last year 1.9% 1.2% 2.1% -2.9%
1.2%
B $18.61 $19.78 $17.00 $19.95 $18.98
Change over last year -1.5% -0.5% -2.0% 6.0%
-0.4%
C $15.57 $16.21 $13.55 $15.14 $15.22
Change over last year -3.3% -2.0% -17.3% 10.3%
-3.8%
Total
Change over last year
$20.33 $20.49 $20.17 $20.54 $20.35
0.3% 0.5% -0.2% 1.3% 0.3%
F E AT U R E S
• OUTLOOK: Asking rents, coupled with concession packages, will need to become even more aggressive to jumpstart a recovery in the office market before hiring warrants it. However, with asking rents at their lowest point in MB Real Estate’s tracked history, landlords may not have any room left to further reduce rents.
ASKING RATES ARE IMPROVING IN CLASS A SPACE
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
21
Distressed sales dominate investment activity with one notable exception in Evanston
• Office sales in Suburban Chicago continue to be associated with distress, with only one core institutional sale during the quarter. Among reported sales, the price per square foot ranged from $36 to $81 indicative of buildings with low occupancy. • The exception is in Evanston where Northwestern University bought 1201 Davis Street from General Board of Pension & Health Benefits of The United Methodist Church. General Board has vacated the property to move into its new build-to-suit headquarters in Glenview, making the property a prime target for the University's administrative offices.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
INVESTMENT SALES
• OUTLOOK: While active, Suburban Chicago has not generated the premier investor interest that characterizes the CBD due to its lack of dynamic demand drivers.
INVESTMENT SALES: INDICATIVE OF DISTRESS
On the Market: 2nd Quarter 2011 Submarket
Size (sf)
Price per sf * Class Seller
Price
Status (Buyer or Listing Agent)
5600 N River Rd, 9450 W Bryn Mawr Ave, O'Hare & 9525 W Bryn Mawr Ave, Rosemont
608,224
-
-
A
Transwestern Investment Company
On Market
1 Pierce Pl, Itasca
Northwest
578,737
-
-
A
Hamilton Partners
New on Market (Bentall Kennedy)
500 Park Blvd, Itasca
Northwest
450,614
-
-
A
Hamilton Partners
New on Market (Bentall Kennedy)
1415 & 1515 W 22nd St, Oak Brook
East-West
402,318
-
-
A
TIAA-CREF
On Market (Jones Lang LaSalle)
221 & 2215 Sanders Rd, Northbrook
North
368,606
-
-
A
Angelo, Gordon & Co.
New on Market
231 N Martingale Rd, Schaumburg
Northwest
317,198
-
-
A
Keystone Property Group
New on Market
747 E 22nd St, Lombard
East-West
209,557
$12,000,000
$57
A
Vectren Utility Holdings
On Market (Jones Lang LaSalle)
909 Davis St, Evanston
North
195,245
$40,000,000
$205
A
American Real Estate Capital
New on Market (Jones Lang LaSalle)
150 NW Point Blvd, Elk Grove Village
Northwest
176,844
$22,000,000
$124
A
Kingsway Financial Services
On Market (CB Richard Ellis)
701 E 22nd St, Lombard
East-West
173,105
-
-
A
GID Investment LLC
Under Contract
1500 W Shure Dr, Arlington Heights
Northwest
158,252
-
-
A
Younan Properties
On Market
1333 Burr Ridge Pky, Burr Ridge
East-West
150,000
$30,000,000
$200
A
1333 Burr Ridge Pky, L.P.
New on Market (Holliday Fowler Fenoglio)
F E AT U R E S
Building Address
Investment Sales: 2nd Quarter 2011 Building Address
Size (sf)
1421-1501 W Shure Dr, Arlington Heights Northwest
692,389
$45,450,000
$66
B
Motorola Solutions, Inc.
9700 W Higgins Rd, Rosemont
O'Hare
276,578
$22,500,000
$81
A
Western National Life Insurance Wintrust Financial Corporation Company
935 National Pky (3 Properties), Schaumburg
Northwest
167,540
$7,400,000
$44
B
Nomura Credit & Capital, Inc.
Janko Group
4101 Winfield Rd, Warrenville
East-West
167,216
$14,670,000
$88
A
M & J Wilkow Ltd.
RR Donnelley & Sons Company
18 E Dundee Rd (6 Properties), Barrington Northwest
98,077
$3,500,000
$36
B
Barrington Place LLC
RCG Management
111 E Busse Ave, Mount Prospect
97,191
$3,000,000
$31
B
Brookfield Asset Management
111 Mount Prospect LLC
Northwest
1201 Davis St, Evanston
North
74,982
4248 Meridian Pky (3 Properties), Aurora
East-West
45,093
Price
Price per sf * Class Seller
Submarket
$21,266,667 $284 $1,700,000
$38
B B
General Board of Pension and Health Benefits Panattoni Development Company, LLC
Buyer Nokia Siemens Networks US LLC
Northwestern University Barnett Capital Ltd.
* Price per sf (square foot) - based off estimated selling price for new to market buildings
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
22
Losses are expected to continue, but the market is synching with the economy
Losses in occupancy continued in Suburban Chicago. Due to the high employment loss, a close correlation between occupancy and total employment in previous recessions, and an increasing trend of relocating to the CBD, MB Real Estate still expects increasing vacancy in coming quarters. Losses are expected to be at a slower pace than in previous quarters, with the severe decreases in the past.
MB Real Estate expects occupancy declines to continue until 2012. The large losses from 2009 are not expected again, but tenants still need to shave off excess space when their leases expire. Starting in 2013, absent a new demand driver, positive absorption will occur, but will be deliberate, representing slow growth within companies.
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (sf)
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (sf)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
90,601,193 91,989,948 95,078,215 98,744,696 103,270,399 108,254,000 109,769,838 110,090,266 110,423,452 111,030,084 110,806,221 111,175,875 112,080,944 112,218,212 112,374,614 112,330,401 112,330,401
82,039,636 85,388,879 88,016,285 90,321,332 93,033,912 92,247,968 91,258,173 88,104,389 90,452,884 90,970,771 91,668,760 92,571,955 90,982,420 87,973,132 86,916,873 85,858,311 85,117,318
1997-2010 Absorption Avg:
478,543
YTD 2011 Absorption:
(778,324)
Direct Vacancy % 9.4% 7.2% 7.4% 8.5% 9.9% 14.8% 16.9% 20.0% 18.1% 18.1% 17.3% 16.7% 18.8% 21.6% 22.7% 23.6% 24.2%
F E AT U R E S
Since occupancy peaked in 2007, it has fallen 6.9 percent in Suburban Chicago. Typically, total occupancy declines mirror peak-to-trough employment losses on a percentage basis in this market. Total employment declined 7.5 percent in the Chicago MSA peak-to-trough; therefore, the office market has room for further losses. Suburban Chicago has few mitigating factors that would change the forecast. Companies, such as Sara Lee, are exploring leaving Suburban Chicago to better accommodate a younger demographic, leaving behind formerly owneroccupied buildings that may enter the competitive tenant market.
Year
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
FORECAST
Total projected inventory based on addition of projects currently under construction Occupancy is forecast based on proprietary assumptions regarding the Chicago MSA’s total employment change and the office industry’s historical performance which trails the overall economy.
HISTORIC & PROJECTED VACANCY: OVERALL VACANCY RATE WILL PEAK NEAR 24%
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
23
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
SUBMARKET MAP
F E AT U R E S SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
24
EAST-WEST
RBA (sf)
Class A
20,620,544
Class B
14,533,702
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
19,118
62,935
4,296,552
20.8%
16,323,992
706,381
24.8%
(104,885)
(39,451)
3,460,572
23.8%
11,073,129
516,325
27.5%
YTD Absorption (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
Class C
4,914,973
36,156
38,155
1,128,212
23.0%
3,786,761
4,635
23.9%
Total
40,069,218
(49,611)
61,639
8,885,337
22.2%
31,183,882
1,227,341
25.6%
NORTH
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) % 24.9%
16,865,410
(48,100)
(22,626)
3,233,095
19.2%
13,632,315
1,116,284
7,504,352
(49,173)
(31,795)
1,658,679
22.1%
5,845,673
105,084
22.2%
Class C
2,573,647
(44,852)
(56,319)
557,982
21.7%
2,015,665
13,508
20.6%
Total
26,943,409
(142,126)
(110,741)
5,449,756
20.2%
21,493,653
1,234,876
23.7%
NORTHWEST
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
Class A
18,526,637
(191,610)
(78,689)
3,896,164
21.0%
14,630,473
439,405
23.7%
Class B
9,765,897
(295,889)
(157,573)
3,356,793
34.4%
6,409,104
143,596
34.9%
Class C
2,305,378
(26,413)
4,223
691,147
30.0%
1,614,231
32,112
31.4%
Total
30,597,911
(513,911)
(232,039)
7,944,104
26.0%
22,653,807
615,113
27.9%
O'HARE
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) % 22.4%
Class A
7,824,658
8,322
5,571
1,595,691
20.4%
6,228,967
176,497
Class B
4,348,908
(69,871)
(26,627)
1,410,318
32.4%
2,938,590
208,792
36.8%
Class C
2,546,296
(11,128)
(11,128)
927,608
36.4%
1,618,688
2,695
36.3%
Total
14,719,862
(72,676)
(32,184)
3,933,617
26.7%
10,786,245
387,984
29.0%
TOTALS
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
2nd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
Class A
63,837,249
(212,270)
(32,810)
13,021,502
20.4%
50,815,747
2,438,567
24.2%
Class B
36,152,858
(519,817)
(255,446)
9,886,362
27.3%
26,266,496
973,797
29.5%
Class C
12,340,294
(46,236)
(25,069)
3,304,949
26.8%
9,035,345
52,950
27.2%
Total Suburban
112,330,401
(778,324)
(313,325)
26,212,813
23.3%
86,117,588
3,465,314
26.2%
SECOND QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
F E AT U R E S
Class A Class B
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
MARKET STATISTICS
25
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION GLOSSARY Absorption: The net change in occupied space over a given period of time. Unless otherwise noted, Net Absorption includes direct and sublease space.
Rental Rates: The annual costs of occupancy for a particular space quoted on a per square foot basis.
Asking Rent: The published rental rate for a space in a building, which may vary from the rent which is negotiated upon by the tenant and landlord.
Sales Price: The total dollar amount paid for a particular property at a particular point in time.
Central Business District: The designations of Central Business District (CBD) and Suburban refer to a particular geographic area within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) describing the level of real estate development found there. The CBD is characterized by a high density, well organized core within the largest city of a given MSA.
SF: Abbreviation for Square Feet.
Class: A classification used to describe buildings, with Class A reflecting the highest quality and Class C reflecting the lowest quality. Direct Vacant Space: Space that is being offered for lease directly from the landlord or owner of a building, as opposed to space being offered in a building by another tenant (or broker of a tenant) trying to sublet a space that has already been leased.
CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
SECTION FOUR
Sublease Space: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Sublease space is sometimes referred to as sublet space. Submarkets: Specific geographic boundaries that serve to delineate a core group of buildings that are competitive with each other and constitute a generally accepted primary competitive set, or peer group. Submarkets are building type specific (office, industrial, retail, etc.), with distinct boundaries dependent on different factors relevant to each building type. Submarkets are non-overlapping, contiguous geographic designations having a cumulative sum that matches the boundaries of the Market they are located within
Initial Rate: The contracted starting rental rate for the first term of a lease. Inventory: The square footage of buildings that have received a certificate of occupancy and are able to be occupied by tenants. Calculated by adding the Rentable Building Area (RBA) of all properties in a market or submarket. Large Block: The amount of contiguous space available in a building in terms of square footage. Contiguous spaces over 50,000 square feet are considered large by MB Real Estate. Lease Comparable: Comparables are properties with characteristics that are similar in nature. Their signing lease rates and other contracted elements are aggregated to analyze contracted market conditions as opposed to asking market conditions. Market: Geographic boundaries that serve to delineate core areas that are competitive with each other and constitute a generally accepted primary competitive set of areas. Markets are building type specific and are nonoverlapping contiguous geographic designations. Markets can be further subdivided into Submarkets. Net Rental Rate: A rental rate that excludes certain expenses that a tenant could incur in occupying office space. Such expenses are expected to be paid directly by the tenant and may include janitorial costs, electricity, utilities, taxes, insurance and other related costs. Preleased Space: The amount of space in a building that has been leased prior to its construction completion date, or certificate of occupancy date. Price/SF: Calculated by dividing the price of a building (either sales price or asking sales price) by the Rentable Building Area (RBA). Rentable Building Area (RBA): The total building square footage that can be occupied by, or assigned to a tenant for the purpose of determining a tenant’s rental obligation. Generally, RBA includes a percentage of common areas including all hallways, main lobbies, bathrooms, and telephone closets.
Suburban: The Suburban and Central Business District (CBD) designations refer to a particular geographic area within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Suburban is defined as including all office inventory not located in the CBD. Tenant Improvement: Those changes to property to accommodate specific needs of a tenant. TIs include installation or relocation of interior walls or partitions, carpeting or other floor covering, shelves, windows, toilets, etc. The cost of these is negotiated in the lease. Total Vacant Space: Direct plus sublease vacant space. Under Construction: The status of a building that is in the process of being developed, assembled, built or constructed. A building is considered to be under construction after it has begun construction and until it receives a certificate of occupancy. Vacancy Rate: A measurement expressed as a percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Under construction space generally is not included in vacancy calculations. Vacancy rate can be based on direct, sublease, or total vacant space. Vacant Space: Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation that may be on the space. Vacant space could be space that is either available or not available. For example, sublease space that is currently being paid for by a tenant but not occupied by that tenant, would be considered vacant space. Likewise, space that has been leased but not yet occupied because of finish work being done, would also be considered vacant space. YTD: Abbreviation for Year-to-Date. Describes statistics that are cumulative from the beginning of a calendar year through whatever time period is being studied.
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Our mission is to provide clients and investors with extraordinary real estate value and unlimited support
M B R E A L E S TAT E
ABOUT MB REAL ESTATE
At MB Real Estate, our corporate mission is to maximize the value of our clients’ real estate by creating timely and innovative solutions that meet their unique needs and objectives. We offer the highest level of real estate support with our team of committed, resultsdriven experts in asset and facilities management, leasing, tenant representation, development, project management, and investment services. Supported by dedicated accounting, marketing, human resources, and information technology teams, our unique full-service firm is an industry leader in local and national corporate real estate.
MB REAL ESTATE HEADQUARTERS
DEPARTMENT LEADERSHIP
181 West Madison, Suite 4700 Chicago, Illinois 60602 phone: 312.726.1700 fax: 312.807.3853
MARK A. BUTH
EAST COAST REGIONAL HEADQUARTERS
GARY A. DENENBERG
335 Madison Avenue, 14th Floor New York, New York 10017 phone: 212.350.2300 fax: 212.350.2301
Senior Vice President & Managing Director of Leasing Services
ANDREW J. DAVIDSON Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Corporate Services & Tenant Advisory
Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Leasing Services
DAVID R. GRAFF Senior Vice President of Project Services
MAUREEN G. GROVE Vice President & Managing Director of Accounting Services
COMPANY LEADERSHIP PETER E. RICKER Chairman & CEO
JOHN T. MURPHY
DANIEL J. NIKITAS Executive Vice President of Corporate Services & Tenant Advisory Services
KEVIN M. PURCELL Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Asset Management
President
EVE WEST Chief Administrative Officer & Managing Director, Support Services
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