T H I R D Q U A R T E R
2 011
CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
THI R D QUARTER
2 011 CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
TABLE OF CONTENTS SE CT ION ONE
CHICAGO ECONOMY 01 Economic Analysis SE CT ION T WO
CHICAGO CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT 02 CBD Executive Summary SUPPLY
03 New Developments 04 Sublease Space 05 Large Blocks of Direct Availability DEMAND
06 Vacancy Rates 07 Large Deals 08 Absorption FEATURES
09 10 11 12 13
Lease Comparables Investment Sales Forecast Submarket Map Market Statistics
SE CT ION T H RE E
SUBURBAN CHICAGO 14 Suburban Chicago Executive Summary T h e C h ic a g o M a r ke t O v e r v i e w i s p ubl i s h e d q u a r t e r l y by M B R e a l E s ta te. To o b t a in ad d i ti o n a l co pi e s o r fo r fur the r in f or ma ti o n , p l e a s e c o nta c t:
KRYS TA BAV LS IK Manager of Research and Analytics or JAC K G AV IN Research Coordinator 1 8 1 We st M a d i s o n S tre e t, S ui te 4 7 0 0 Ch ic a go, I l l i no i s 6 0 6 0 2 (312) 726-1700
SUPPLY
15 New Developments 16 Sublease Space 17 Large Blocks of Direct Availability DEMAND
18 Vacancy Rates 19 Large Deals 20 Absorption FEATURES
21 22 23 24 25
Gross Asking Rents Investment Sales Forecast Submarket Map Market Statistics
w w w. m b r e s . c o m SE CT ION FOUR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 26 Glossary 27 About MB Real Estate
CHICAGO ECONOMY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) recovery continues, though it lags the national recovery. While the MSA is the business center of the Midwest, has a well-educated workforce, and has been recently successful in attracting tech startups, it is highly dependent on slow-growing and mature industries. A survey by Development Counsellors International ranks Illinois third in terms of worst business climate in the U.S. among states, with high tax rates affecting corporate relocations indefinitely. The obstacles facing the nation could be detrimental. According to Moody's Analytics' chief economist Mark Zandi, the probability of a U.S. recession in the next six to 12 months is at 40 percent. The S&P 500 fell 14 percent in the third quarter. The government is discussing a third round of stimulus. The fallout of Europe’s debt crisis threatens to spill into the U.S. While most of these factors are based on fear, their influence on confidence is crucial to the Chicago CBD and Suburban office markets.
C H I C A G O E C O N O M I C A N A LY S I S
SECTION ONE
Cash accounted for a historically high 7.1 percent of all public company assets as of the end of June according to the Federal Reserve. Companies are unwilling to invest, but their strong reserves may have kept them from shedding office space quickly. Excess cash is one positive among the headlines because companies are in a good position to weather economic storms. National economic news may force employment losses to impact the office market Economic headlines have finally caught up to the employment reality that the MBRE Chicago Market Overview has been bringing to light over the last year: the area is not creating enough jobs to sustain the recovery that has mounted in the Central Business District (CBD). Total employment in the Chicago MSA declined 7.5 percent peak-to-trough and has only rebounded 0.8 percent since hitting its low in December 2009. Employment has posted a much larger decline than the last recession with a slower rebound. While Suburban Chicago has shed occupancy at its typical rapid pace, the CBD has been resilient. While the economy is now the biggest risk to the office market, several other factors weigh heavily on its future performance. Underutilized space, often termed “shadow vacancy,” remains a risk as evidenced by many tenants’ plans to lessen their footprint upon renewal. High tax rates in Illinois will influence corporate location decisions. With confidence evaporating, the positive expansion news that had a domino effect on the CBD market may disappear. MB Real Estate’s baseline office forecast still expects a substantial decline in occupancy over several upcoming quarters to correlate with job losses. An alternative scenario is that occupancy will be volatile but still trend negatively over time in the CBD, while losses in Suburban Chicago will be steadily negative. An optimistic scenario points to recent positive absorption in the CBD as a turning point, where rental rates have fallen enough to warrant expansion for some tenants before it is justified by employee headcount and waning confidence will not have an impact. Sources: MBRE Research, BLS, Chicago Sun-Times, Crain’s Chicago Business, Financial Times, Moody’s Economy.com
CHICAGO EMPLOYMENT WELL BELOW PEAK AND FAILING TO REBOUND QUICKLY
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
1
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Chicago's CBD experienced a modest increase in occupancy. Leasing activity was strong as some of the largest tenants finally committed to decisions, although much of the impact will not be felt immediately. Key Indicators: • Vacancy decreased due to positive net absorption. Strong confidence of a recovery earlier in the year led many tenants to expand to take advantage of attractive lease terms from landlords. With that confidence disappearing, companies will likely halt expansion for several quarters, and the previous employment losses will work their way through the market.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SECTION TWO
• The MB Real Estate Index, reported in a separate publication available on www.mbres.com, showed rising vacancy rates in September. The MBRE Index is comprised of the 30 newest buildings in the CBD and leads market performance by several quarters. It is evidence that supports MBRE’s continued forecast for vacancy increases across the market. • Sublease space, which typically increases quickly when confidence declines, acted counterintuitively this quarter. It is the lone indicator that the CBD office market may continue to outperform forecasts. • The Central Loop experienced its strongest quarter so far in the recovery with a large increase in Class B occupancy. The West Loop and River North continued their positive performance. The South Loop had the most negative performance, which is especially notable since it is the smallest submarket in terms of inventory. • Risks to the outlook include the following: fear of another recession, shrinking space requirement per employee, reduced storage needs due to digital archiving, reduced server space needs due to cloud computing, increased use of telecommunication, increased corporate tax rates in Illinois, and the GSA's elimination of underutilized space. Underutilized space remains the biggest concern to the outlook of the market. Lingering effects of the recession and slow job growth are expected to cause the direct vacancy rate to rise to 16.4 percent by 2013, although corporate relocations offer upside potential.
CBD VACANCY AND YEAR-TO-DATE ABSORPTION SUMMARY Direct Vacancy 3Q2011 Central Loop East Loop N. Michigan Ave. River North South Loop West Loop CBD Chicago Total Net Absorption 3Q2011 Central Loop East Loop N. Michigan Ave. River North South Loop West Loop CBD Chicago Total
A 9.7% 21.9% 20.0% 16.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.5%
Change from 2Q2011 -0.1% -5.3% -0.1% 0.7% 0.8% -0.1%
-0.5%
B
Change from 2Q2011
16.8% 24.1% 24.4% 7.0%
-1.1% 2.2% 0.4% -0.5%
12.7% 17.6%
-0.1%
0.1%
C 16.8% 13.9% 13.2% 11.9% 25.3% 17.1% 15.2%
Change from 2Q2011 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% -1.1% 0.4% -0.2%
-0.1%
Total
Change from 2Q2011
14.2% 19.9% 19.2% 12.0% 20.6% 14.6% 15.7%
-0.3% 0.1% 0.0% -0.3% 0.5% -0.2% -0.2%
A
B
C
Total
17,509 219,660 5,098 (31,655) (8,286) 88,773 291,099
177,074 (215,231) (7,925) 9,101
(41,196) (26,241) (16,754) 54,712 (20,039) (18,802) (68,321)
153,387 ( 21,812) ( 19,582) 32,157 ( 28,325) 84,986 200,813
15,016 (21,965)
Numbers in parentheses are negative
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
2
Development push has ebbed, but prior projects are still searching for anchor tenants
• After several announcements in the first quarter, no additional development projects have been marketed lately. Four proposed developments are still actively seeking tenants, but have none committed. • The factor most likely to drive a new development is the lack of large Class A blocks of space. There are only five that could accommodate a tenant larger than 200,000 square feet.
• OUTLOOK: A new building would not typically be in demand during a weak market, but constraints in the number of large blocks available could enable one to break ground. Tenants must have a strong preference for the new space because estimated rents on new space are nearly double average Class A rental rates.
2000 - 5 Properties 2001 - 2 Properties 2002 - 2 Properties 2003 - 0 Properties 2004 - 1 Property 2005 - 2 Properties 2006 - 2 Properties 2007 - 0 Properties 2008 - 2 Properties 2009 - 3 Properties 2010 - 1 Expansion Total - 20 Properties
2,870,576 904,436 2,236,364 0 1,300,000 2,500,143 1,320,498 0 728,254 3,652,913 933,710
sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf
95.8% 86.9% 94.6% 0.0% 100.0% 97.4% 96.9% 0.0% 70.6% 81.4% 92.9%
16,446,894 sf
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
% Leased
S U P P LY
• Two of the proposed buildings are relatively small and would need only one large anchor to obtain construction financing. The Alter Group and White Oak Realty are proposing a 490,000 square foot tower at 625 West Adams, while Fifield and CB Richard Ellis are proposing a 350,000 to 425,000 square foot building at 601 West Monroe. Conversely, Trammell Crow and Insite Real Estate are marketing a 1 million square foot tower at 301 South Wacker. Hines is trying to revive a 1 million square foot development at 444 West Lake, which was sufficiently pre-leased prior to the recession before the deal fell apart.
% Leased (Avg)
2000 - 2010 INVENTORY ADDITIONS
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
N/A Total
0 sf
2000-2011 INVENTORY ADDITIONS Delivered (2000-2010) Delivered (2011)
16,446,894 sf 0 sf
Total Under Construction Proposed Inventory
16,446,894 sf 0 sf 3,795,000 sf
Total
3,795,000 sf
NEW DEVELOPMENT HALTED; DEMAND PICKS UP SLIGHTLY
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
3
Sublease availability decreases significantly
• Total sublease space fell more than 260,000 square feet due to several tenants removing or leasing a portion of their space. • Computershare and SNR Denton both removed their sublease offerings from the market at 2 North LaSalle and 233 South Wacker (Willis Tower), respectively. • kCura executed the largest sublease of the quarter, subleasing 76,000 square feet from Bank of America at 231 South LaSalle. This removed the last large sublease space that Bank of America was offering from inventory. Bank of America had flooded the market with sublease availability in previous quarters, and the space has been slowly absorbed.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SUBLEASE SPACE
• Info.com subleased a portion of Unilever’s space at 205 North Michigan (Michigan Plaza), while SMS Assist subleased a portion of PricewaterhouseCoopers’ space at 875 North Michigan (John Hancock Center).
YEAR-END HISTORIC SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY: STEADILY DECREASING
S U P P LY
• OUTLOOK: Sublease space availability is currently performing contrary to intuition. It is typically very reactionary, and a jump was expected this quarter.
LARGE BLOCKS (MORE THAN 50,000 SQUARE FEET) OF SUBLEASE SPACE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE CLASS A Building Address
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Floor(s)
Sublandlord
200 E Randolph St 131 S Dearborn St
95,103 61,425
Vacant June 2012
December 2013 October 2017
14-16 10
AON Corporation Citadel
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Floor(s)
Sublandlord
225 W Randolph St 350 W Mart Ctr 600 W Chicago Ave 680 N Lake Shore Dr 222 N LaSalle St
238,778 160,568 117,101 95,523 78,974
February 2012 Vacant Vacant Negotiable January 2012
December 2022 January 2016 November 2015 August 2022 May 2014
22-30 3-5 2 15-16 17-18
AT&T AT&T Level 3 Communications Playboy Enterprises Merrill Lynch
Total - 5 Spaces
690,944
Total - 2 Spaces
156,528
CLASS B Building Address
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
4
Net change is minimal; contiguous blocks more than 200,000 square feet remain scarce
• The total number of large blocks and square footage within them remained relatively unchanged this quarter, with a reduction of two blocks and nearly 65,000 square feet. • 353 North Clark was responsible for removing two large blocks. In one block, a floor has been used to create speculative suites, which are ready-made spaces for small tenants. Ventas signed a new, full-floor lease to remove another block.
• MB Real Estate has identified 44 tenants actively seeking at least 50,000 square feet in the CBD, a marked increase from last quarter. However, since there are 69 blocks available, there is a clear glut of space in the market. When considering blocks of 200,000 square feet or more, there are only five spaces compared to seven tenants of such size. While these tenants also have the possibility to renew, this segment of the market is the most constrained.
CLASS B Building Address 330 N Wabash Ave 303 E Wacker Dr * 130 E Randolph St * 55 E Monroe St 303 E Wacker Dr * 333 S Wabash Ave * 205|225 N Michigan Ave 101 N Wacker Dr 300 S Riverside Plz 330 N Wabash Ave 1 N Dearborn St 225 N Michigan Ave 1 & 2 Prudential Pl 200 N LaSalle St 120 S LaSalle St * 175 W Jackson J k Blvd Bl d * 175 W Jackson Blvd * 111 E Wacker Dr * 111 E Wacker Dr * 231 S LaSalle St 222 N LaSalle St 55 W Monroe St 33 W Monroe St 401 N Michigan Ave 222 Merchandise Mart Plz 25 Blocks
200 E Randolph St 500 W Monroe St 233 S Wacker Dr 21 S Clark 111 W Illinois St 161 N Clark St 500 W Monroe St * 500 W Madison St 233 S Wacker Dr 455 N Cityfront Plaza Dr 1 S Wacker Dr 30 S Wacker Dr 333 W Wacker Dr 227 W Monroe St * 500 W Madison St * 233 S Wacker W k D Dr 77 W Wacker Dr 200 E Randolph St * 227 W Monroe St 980 N Michigan Ave 321 N Clark St 233 S Wacker Dr 222 W Adams St 1 S Wacker Dr 181 W Madison St 227 W Monroe St 190 S LaSalle St 70 W Madison St ** 200 S Wacker Dr 525 W Van Buren St * 30 Blocks
Size (sf)
Submarket
380,158 369,207 299,514 151,000 141,503 116,964 106,475 92,924 91,216 90,207 86,658 85,831 80,736 75,851 74,925 74,806 74 806 67,342 67,318 64,033 62,384 61,431 60,817 59,436 56,669 56 199 56,199 54,356 54,225 53,953 51,935 51,538 3,139,611
East Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop River North Central Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop North Michigan Avenue West Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop West W t Loop L Central Loop East Loop West Loop North Michigan Avenue River North West Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop West Loop Central Loop Central Loop West Loop West Loop
Size (sf)
Submarket
155,819 117,207 110,898 106,168 102,943 89,000 83,612 81,331 76,855 73,294 71,718 63,502 57,800 56,352 1,246,499
Central Loop East Loop East Loop River North Central Loop South Loop Central Loop West Loop East Loop North Michigan Avenue Central Loop East Loop West Loop East Loop
S U P P LY
• Several blocks became available due to shifts within their respective buildings. For instance at 70 West Madison, Sara Lee is vacating space, and Stifel Nicolaus relocated within the building to create a contiguous block. In the Class C market, 104 South Michigan is undergoing renovations, and contiguous blocks of space will be available in 2012.
CLASS A Building Address
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LARGE BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
CLASS C Size (sf)
Submarket
371,945 271,382 185,042 175,263 143,960 136,500 120,446 106,732 105,183 97,932 97,261 78,498 73,644 71,728 69,519 68,539 68 539 67,725 67,362 65,804 63,678 58,908 55,063 54,073 51,870 50 000 50,000 2,708,057
North Michigan Avenue East Loop East Loop East Loop East Loop East Loop East Loop West Loop West Loop North Michigan Avenue Central Loop East Loop East Loop Central Loop Central Loop Central C t l Loop L Central Loop East Loop East Loop Central Loop Central Loop Central Loop Central Loop North Michigan Avenue River North
Building Address 11 S LaSalle St 33 S State St 401 S State St 350 W Mart Ctr 111 W Jackson Blvd 619 S LaSalle St 111 W Jackson Blvd 564 W Randolph St 360 N Michigan Ave * 740 N Rush St 111 W Washington St * 104 S Michigan Ave * 111 N Canal St 104 S Michigan Ave * 14 Blocks
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market * Block of space is for future occupancy **Block of space will be vacated in the upcoming quarter
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
5
Vacancy declines slightly
• The direct vacancy rate fell 0.2 percent during the quarter to 15.7 percent. The total vacancy rate (which includes sublease space) decreased by a slightly larger margin, down 0.3 percent to 18.2 percent. • The Class A market continued its improvement, with strong performance in the East Loop. Class B performance receded slightly. Last quarter, it had started to improve, and it seemed like the flight-to-quality had finally trickled down. However, that trend has halted at least temporarily. • OUTLOOK: MB Real Estate expects direct vacancy to be volatile through the intermediate term, bumping between slightly positive and negative changes with the peak still to come.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
VACANCY RATES
HISTORIC YEAR-END DIRECT VACANCY: DOWN FROM YEAR-END 2011 DEMAND
HISTORIC YEAR-END VACANCY MARKET STATISTICS BY BUILDING CLASS: CLASS A & B IMPROVES
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
6
Renewal activity surges
• Integrys’ lease at 200 East Randolph (Aon Center) represents the largest new transaction of the quarter. They will move within the East Loop in 2014 from 130 East Randolph (One Prudential Plaza), contracting their total leased area. • OWP&P Cannon Design is the second largest new transaction. Renewal activity was led by three of the largest tenants who toured the market earlier this year. While Fifth Third Bank expanded by 38,000 square feet, the American Bar Association contracted by 25,000 square feet. A majority of other renewals were also expansions. • 61 tenants searching for at least 20,000 square feet, a reduction from previous quarters. Many companies delayed making decisions during the downturn and finally pulled the trigger. Despite positive headlines from companies committed to expanding in Chicago, such as Motorola Solutions, who will bring 400 workers to the CBD, there are not many opportunities for outside growth on the horizon.
LARGE LEASE TRANSACTIONS
DEMAND
• OUTLOOK: The surge in leasing activity, particularly for renewal transactions, represents the signing of leases that have been negotiated over multiple quarters. Expect leasing activity to slow down in coming quarters as companies hesitate due to the economy.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LARGE DEALS
NEW Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Size (sf)
Integrys OWP&P Cannon Design Cushman & Wakefield bSwift Youth Connection Charter School Ventas Broker's Risk Claro Group Total - 8 Spaces
Relo New New Relo New New Relo New
East Loop East Loop West Loop West Loop East Loop River North West Loop River North
200 E Randolph 205 | 225 N Michigan 200 S Wacker 10 S Riverside 17-25 N State 353 N Clark 155 N Wacker 321 N Clark
Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Size (sf)
PricewaterhouseCoopers Fifth Third Bank American Bar Association Edelman kCura Skidmore, Owings & Merrill Acquity Group Paul Hastings The Northern Trust Company Administrative Office of the Illinois Courts Banner & Witcoff American Cancer Society Performance Trust Accretive Health IntercontinentalExchange Sapient Corporation Momentum Worldwide AmWins Brokerage of Illinois Barrett Offices Golub Capital McCorkle Court Reporters Total - 21 Spaces
Ren Ren/Exp Ren/Cont Ren/Exp Sub Ren/Exp Ren/Exp Ren Sub Ren Ren/Exp Ren Ren/Exp Exp Ren/Exp Ren/Exp Ren/Exp Sub Sub Ren/Exp Ren/Exp
West Loop West Loop River North East Loop Central Loop East Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop Central Loop West Loop East Loop West Loop Central Loop River North Central Loop North Michigan Ave Central Loop Central Loop West Loop Central Loop
1 N Wacker 222 S Riverside 321 N Clark 200 E Randolph 231 S LaSalle 224 S Michigan 500 W Madison 191 N Wacker 231 S LaSalle 222 N LaSalle 10 S Wacker 225 N Michigan 500 W Madison 231 S LaSalle 353 N Clark 30 W Monroe 444 N Michigan 10 S LaSalle 222 N LaSalle 150 S Wacker 200 N LaSalle
278,901 218,135 201,000 178,437 76,000 69,000 64,585 53,000 41,398 39,610 38,000 34,321 31,647 28,284 27,785 25,160 23,000 23,000 22,665 22,267 20,048 1,516,243
150,000 60,502 40,000 36,812 31,575 28,557 28,144 25,771 401,361
RENEWAL/EXPANSION/SUBLEASE
Abbreviations: Cont - Contraction
Exp - Expansion
Relo - Relocation
Ren - Renewal
Sub - Sublease
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
7
Recovery expands from the West Loop to Central Loop
• Absorption was positive in the third quarter, but at a slightly lesser magnitude than the previous quarter and only representing 0.15 percent of inventory. • Strong confidence from the beginning of the year is responsible for positive absorption as signed leases materialized into occupancy. • The Central Loop experienced the strongest absorption among the submarkets as the recovery from the West Loop expanded eastward. Class A space continues to lead the market.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
ABSORPTION
• OUTLOOK: Stagnant job growth and falling confidence may result in negative absorption in upcoming quarters. However, large users such as Google and Sara Lee, who are looking to expand in the CBD, have the potential to offset the broader market.
DEMAND
HISTORIC ABSORPTION: POSITIVE YEAR-TO-DATE
HISTORIC ABSORPTION BY SUBMARKET: EAST LOOP, WEST LOOP, AND RIVER NORTH POSITIVE
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
8
Class A lease terms are strong, but Class B and C still wane
• Lease metrics are compared on a four-quarter basis instead of calendar year, allowing full years of data comparison. • The Class A market for new transactions is posting strong performance from one year ago. Average initial rates have risen 6.2 percent, tenant improvement packages are nearing $50 per square foot, and abatement is holding steady at an average of 1.05 months per year of lease term. • Class B initial rental rates continue to fall, down 8.2 percent from one year ago. While tenant improvement packages have increased from the lows of the previous year, they are not approaching the highs reached in the last expansion. Rent abatement packages have continued to increase, both in terms of absolute number of months and number of months per year leased.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LEASE COMPARABLES
• Initial rates in the Class C market have risen. Concessions have risen in terms of abatement but not in terms of tenant improvement packages. Class C landlords are still the most capital constrained.
AVERAGE LEASE TERMS ON NEW AND RENEWAL DEALS NEW DEALS
AVERAGE INITIAL RATE
AVERAGE TENANT IMPROVEMENT
AVERAGE TERM (YEARS)
AVERAGE ABATEMENT (MONTHS)
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
4Q2010 - 3Q2011
$20.78
$14.05
$12.86
$48.37
$29.40
$16.83
9.0
7.4
6.5
8.6
7.0
5.8
4Q2009 - 3Q2010
$19.57
$15.31
$11.74
$38.42
$28.25
$18.90
8.3
6.8
5.3
7.9
6.6
5.8
4Q2008 - 3Q2009
$21.76
$16.45
$13.38
$42.61
$35.15
$33.84
6.0
4.4
4.4
8.6
7.0
7.9
4Q2007 - 3Q2008
$20.66
$16.71
$14.40
$42.65
$36.95
$25.37
4.7
3.7
3.7
7.9
6.6
6.9
4Q2006 - 3Q2007
$18.63
$14.22
$14.10
$50.16
$41.59
$17.83
5.8
5.6
2.8
8.7
7.3
5.1
4Q2005 - 3Q2006
$17.85
$13.18
$12.72
$46.60
$36.29
$20.77
6.7
5.0
2.5
8.4
7.1
5.8
4Q2004 - 3Q2005
$16.86
$12.81
$9.68
$42.68
$44.19
$25.75
7.1
7.3
4.4
10.0
8.8
6.4
4Q2003 - 3Q2004
$17.16
$12.45
$8.88
$42.32
$37.40
$17.71
5.2
5.8
3.9
8.9
8.3
6.7
4Q2002 - 3Q2003
$20.75
$15.12
$11.92
$36.88
$36.22
$22.46
1.3
4.3
1.7
8.0
9.2
6.0
4Q2001 - 3Q2002
$22.92
$16.19
$15.16
$26.31
$26.50
$28.49
1.1
0.7
1.4
7.0
8.4
7.6
4Q2000 - 3Q2001
$21.94
$16.04
$15.37
$28.21
$24.79
$29.10
0.8
0.1
0.0
7.6
7.2
5.8
4Q1999 - 3Q2000
$20.77
$15.82
$12.66
$25.76
$26.78
$22.75
0.1
0.0
0.1
8.3
7.3
6.7
4Q1998 - 3Q1999
$19.21
$14.09
$15.73
$20.38
$27.21
$26.73
0.2
0.4
0.0
7.3
7.2
8.2
RENEWAL DEALS
AVERAGE INITIAL RATE A
B
4Q2010 - 3Q2011
$19.24
4Q2009 - 3Q2010
$18.46
4Q2008 - 3Q2009 4Q2007 - 3Q2008
AVERAGE TENANT IMPROVEMENT
F E AT U R E S
• OUTLOOK: Although Class A has posted solid improvement in lease terms, the future is uncertain due to the faltering economy. Class B and C lease terms will continue to favor the tenant.
AVERAGE ABATEMENT (MONTHS)
AVERAGE TERM (YEARS)
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
$13.95
$11.73
$18.11
$9.64
$7.15
4.9
4.2
5.0
6.3
4.4
5.2
$15.59
$11.01
$13.92
$9.59
$5.49
5.1
3.6
4.1
5.4
4.7
4.8
$20.23
$17.15
$15.33
$19.21
$16.69
$15.69
3.0
3.6
2.8
5.9
5.6
7.0
$22.72
$15.73
$14.77
$22.75
$15.42
$16.69
3.9
2.1
2.3
7.2
5.4
6.7
4Q2006 - 3Q2007
$16.26
$14.02
$15.42
$16.19
$16.94
$9.22
4.2
2.5
1.7
6.2
6.5
5.4
4Q2005 - 3Q2006
$16.64
$13.33
$15.76
$25.84
$16.58
$8.99
4.8
3.3
0.4
7.8
6.5
5.2
4Q2004 - 3Q2005
$15.97
$12.47
$11.57
$21.54
$22.76
$5.31
3.6
3.1
1.0
7.5
7.9
4.7
4Q2003 - 3Q2004
$18.28
$13.43
$9.71
$23.96
$17.21
$10.78
2.5
3.7
1.1
8.9
6.9
6.7
4Q2002 - 3Q2003
$20.76
$14.26
$10.68
$14.49
$13.31
$7.78
0.7
1.8
0.0
6.8
7.1
6.6
4Q2001 - 3Q2002
$22.68
$16.32
$13.10
$16.94
$13.68
$7.38
0.7
0.7
0.1
7.1
6.6
4.6
4Q2000 - 3Q2001
$22.58
$16.47
$14.11
$8.42
$8.94
$4.75
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.6
7.3
3.3
4Q1999 - 3Q2000
$20.72
$15.03
$13.77
$13.81
$14.19
$10.38
0.1
0.0
0.0
6.1
6.9
6.6
4Q1998 - 3Q1999
$21.21
$12.05
$13.46
$11.47
$12.79
$7.59
0.0
0.0
0.2
6.8
5.3
4.0
All rates are shown as net and do not include tax and operating costs for building. Numbers will be revised as new data are reported in subsequent quarters
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
9
Sales market is extremely active and continues to earn high values per square foot
• The investment momentum in Chicago’s CBD is strong, with 11 buildings currently on the market. Three major transactions closed during the quarter, all above $230 per square foot.
INVESTMENT SALES: INFLUX OF PROPERTIES ON THE MARKET Sale Date
350 N Orleans 200 N LaSalle 500 N Michigan
Back On Market New On Market New On Market
1,208,000 645,000 322,443
$100,000,000 $155 $75,000,000 $233
B A B
Vornado Realty Trust Younan Properties Zeller Realty Group
233 S Wacker
On Market
3,781,045
$1,500,000,000 $397
A
American Landmark, Marketing (Eastdil Secured & Joseph Chetrit, & Joseph Newmark Knight Frank) Moinian
141 W Jackson
On Market
1,400,000
$154,000,000 $110
B
CME Group
200 W Jackson 32 W Randolph 215 W Ohio
Pending On Market On Market
476,711 226,666 52,742
$86 -
B C C
AREA David & Barbara Kalish Bold Development Hines Real Estate Investment Trust Piedmont Parkway Properties LaSalle Investment Golub & Co.
Price
$19,500,000 -
Status (Buyer or Listing Agent) Marketing (Eastdil Secured) Marketing (Eastdil Secured) Marketing (Eastdil Secured)
Marketing (Jones Lang LaSalle & Holly Duran Real Estate Partners) Marketing (Holliday Fenoglio Fowler) Marketing (CB Richard Ellis) Marketing
Under Contract
1,400,000
$620,000,000 $443
A
Under Contract Under Contract Under Contract Under Contract
1,118,042 1,002,950 803,046 440,000
$400,000,000 $151,000,000 $140,000,000 $187,000,000
$358 $151 $174 $425
A B A A
600 W Chicago
3rd Qtr 2011
1,567,592
$389,900,000 $249
B
JV - David Werner, Jacob CommonWealth REIT Gerstein, Victor Gerstein
70 W Madison
3rd Qtr 2011
1,439,369
$349,266,667 $243
A
Hines Real Estate Investment Trust
JV - Gaw Capital Partners, KTCU, & Korean Federation of Community Credit Cooperatives
200 W Madison
3rd Qtr 2011
928,000
$217,500,000 $234
A
JV - Tishman Speyer & Transwestern
Multi-Employer Property Trust
400-410 N Michigan
3rd Qtr 2011
454,000
$33,000,000
$73
B
William Wrigley & Co.
JV - Zeller Realty Corp, Brad Keywell & Eric Lefofsky, & BDT Capital
205 W Randolph
3rd Qtr 2011
197,991
$13,000,000
$66
C
Joseph Messer & Thomas Stilp
Farbman Group
200 N Michigan
3rd Qtr 2011
132,500
$7,500,000
$57
C
Lutz Real Estate InvestmenThe John Buck Company
All Sales
2nd Qtr 2011
2,599,566
$315,677,777
All Sales
1st Qtr 2011
528,104
$35,000,000
All Sales
4th Qtr 2010
4,861,161
$1,291,900,000
F E AT U R E S
1 N Wacker (50% Stake) 35 W Wacker 111 E Wacker 55 W Monroe 22 W Washington
Size (sf)
Price per sf * Class Seller
Building Address
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
INVESTMENT SALES
Irvine Co. UBS Realty CommonWealth REIT Hearn Co. Unidentified
*Price per square foot - based off estimated selling price for new to market buildings
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
10
Fear of a second recession will pause office market recovery
With confidence falling on the heel of dire economic news, the CBD office market is likely to begin retreating again to align with employment levels. Tenants have been expanding ahead of hiring, supporting occupancy within the market. Without solid expectations for future growth, the boost is likely to disappear. With several quarters of positive absorption, occupancy is currently 0.8 percent below its 2007 peak. This compares to a 6.7 percent employment loss. During past recessions, there was a strong correlation between the two metrics, which leads to a forecast of future occupancy declines.
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (sf)
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (sf)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
120,244,884 120,434,748 119,972,770 118,691,577 121,440,276 122,776,164 124,713,268 125,037,423 126,452,643 128,385,650 126,478,575 125,626,639 125,269,078 130,038,076 130,539,796 130,571,362 130,571,362
101,285,488 104,939,294 106,058,995 106,744,585 109,533,759 108,743,284 107,598,500 106,754,119 106,568,104 105,737,728 108,402,912 110,969,808 110,833,045 110,112,891 109,602,891 109,766,176 109,179,219
Direct Vacancy % 15.8% 12.9% 11.6% 10.1% 9.8% 11.4% 13.7% 14.6% 15.7% 17.6% 14.3% 11.7% 11.5% 15.3% 16.0% 15.9% 16.4%
F E AT U R E S
The CBD has strong demand drivers, which have attracted new companies. Led by Groupon, numerous startups have sought space within the CBD. Google is now in the market to expand by as much as 250,000 square feet. Additionally, tenants have relocated from Suburban Chicago to suit younger workers' preferences of location.
Year
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
FORECAST
Yet the CBD still faces numerous headwinds on top of the 1996-2010 Absorption Avg: 605,567 negative economic news. Bank of America, which has a YTD 2011 Absorption: 456,763 large CBD presence, will be laying off more than 10 Total projected inventory based on addition of projects currently under construction percent of its workforce. Companies are able to create more efficient floorplans. Archives are going digital; server Occupancy is forecast based on proprietary assumptions regarding the Chicago MSA’s total employment change and the office industry’s historical performance which trails the overall economy. rooms are being replaced by cloud technology. New healthcare legislation will encourage more contracting instead of hiring; contractors will not need designated space. It is becoming increasingly likely that the office space recovery will be drawn out, with slight swings of positive and negative absorption for several years. On a net basis, occupancy must still decline to match jobs.
HISTORIC & PROJECTED VACANCY: OCCUPANCY WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
11
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SUBMARKET MAP
F E AT U R E S THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
12
CENTRAL LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) % 12.1%
13,554,346
85,930
17,509
1,317,085
9.7%
12,237,262
317,342
14,030,785
85,487
177,074
2,356,779
16.8%
11,674,006
360,304
19.4%
Class C
8,613,255
(254,379)
(41,196)
1,449,595
16.8%
7,163,660
141,998
18.5%
Total
36,198,386
(82,962)
153,387
5,123,458
14.2%
31,074,928
819,644
16.4%
EAST LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
4,014,487
148,082
219,660
880,783
21.9%
3,133,704
217,761
27.4%
Class B
10,207,612
(3,055)
(215,231)
2,460,598
24.1%
7,747,014
244,222
26.5%
Class C
8,457,711
(79,224)
(26,241)
1,173,242
13.9%
7,284,469
25,960
14.2%
Total
22,679,811
65,802
(21,812)
4,514,623
19.9%
18,165,188
487,943
22.1%
N. MICHIGAN AVE.
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
3,952,669
(44,835)
5,098
791,269
20.0%
3,161,400
99,955
22.5%
Class B
4,634,167
(51,535)
(7,925)
1,129,255
24.4%
3,504,912
134,986
27.3%
Class C
4,425,684
(49,636)
(16,754)
582,279
13.2%
3,843,405
39,184
14.0%
Total
13,012,520
(146,006)
(19,582)
2,502,803
19.2%
10,509,717
274,125
21.3%
RIVER NORTH
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
4,003,546
(41,288)
(31,655)
654,626
16.4%
3,348,920
132,732
19.7%
Class B
3,538,948
151,168
9,101
248,940
7.0%
3,290,008
371,221
17.5%
Class C
5,764,476
67,972
54,712
687,161
11.9%
5,077,315
221,153
15.8%
Total
13,306,970
177,852
32,157
1,590,727
12.0%
11,716,243
725,106
17.4%
SOUTH LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
1,019,325
(53,752)
(8,286)
149,788
14.7%
869,537
12,809
16.0%
Class C
1,271,908
(39,500)
(20,039)
322,427
25.3%
949,481
2,005
25.5%
Total
2,291,233
(93,252)
(28,325)
472,215
20.6%
1,819,018
14,814
21.3%
WEST LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
26,891,979
402,928
88,773
3,967,012
14.8%
22,924,967
675,258
17.3%
Class B
9,723,404
101,773
15,016
1,231,847
12.7%
8,491,557
132,808
14.0%
Class C
6,467,059
30,629
(18,802)
1,109,023
17.1%
5,358,036
66,162
18.2%
Total
43,082,442
535,330
84,986
6,307,882
14.6%
36,774,560
874,228
16.7%
TOTALS
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) % 17.2%
Class A
53,436,352
497,064
291,099
7,760,562
14.5%
45,675,790
1,455,857
Class B
42,134,916
283,838
(21,965)
7,427,419
17.6%
34,707,497
1,243,541
20.6%
Class C
35,000,094
(324,139)
(68,321)
5,323,727
15.2%
29,676,367
496,462
16.6%
Total CBD
130,571,362
456,763
200,813
20,511,708
15.7%
110,059,654
3,195,860
18.2%
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
F E AT U R E S
Class A Class B
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
MARKET STATISTICS
13
SUBURBAN CHICAGO EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Absent a large boost next quarter, 2011 is shaping up to show greater occupancy losses than 2010. While losses now match with employment market losses on a percentage basis, Suburban Chicago stands to see more negativity as numerous factors weigh against its recovery.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
SECTION THREE
Key Indicators: • The East-West submarket is recovering ahead of its peers. The North submarket, which has held steadiest through the downturn, is starting to see significant occupancy losses. • In contrast to the previous flight-to-quality trend, Class A performance was weakest during the quarter with large negative absorption in that segment in both the North and Northwest submarkets. • AT&T continues to impact the sublease market, listing a 239,000 square foot building for sublease in addition to its 1.2 million square foot corporate campus. The potential for formerly single-tenant corporate campuses to enter the multi-tenant market weighs on Suburban Chicago. With United Airlines leaving for the CBD, Sara Lee exploring a similar move, AT&T and Motorola shedding space, and Sears looking to relocate out of state, the potential for numerous vacant corporate campuses is high. • Leasing activity continued to be muted, with no new deals greater than 80,000 square feet. On a positive note, several transactions will result in increased occupancy in Suburban Chicago for the tenants. • Asking rents have held fairly steady. Landlords must increase concessions to entice tenants to stay or relocate within the suburbs. • While the CBD earns enough demand from its talented labor pool to counteract an increased tax burden, Suburban Chicago lacks similar drivers. • Unlike the CBD, there are no potential office developments making headlines. The only project underway is the build-to-suit headquarters for Astellas Pharma US in Glenview, which has created a large block of sublease availability at its former location in Deerfield. Occupancy has decreased 7.4 percent in Suburban Chicago compared to a 7.5 percent peak-to-trough total employment loss. Corporate defections, as well as underutilized space, remain the biggest risks to the market; companies have leased more space than they need and will reduce square footage upon lease expirations.
SUBURBAN VACANCY AND YEAR-TO-DATE ABSORPTION SUMMARY Direct Vacancy 3Q2011 East-West North Northwest O'Hare Suburban Chicago Total Net Absorption 3Q2011 East-West North Northwest O'Hare Suburban Chicago Total
A
Change from 2Q2011
B
Change from 2Q2011
C
Change from 2Q2011
Total
Change from 2Q2011
19.6% 20.5% 23.0% 21.7% 21.1%
-1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7%
23.9% 20.6% 35.0% 31.3% 27.1%
0.1% -1.5% 0.6% -1.1% -0.2%
23.1% 22.5% 31.3% 35.7% 27.1%
0.1% 0.8% 1.3% -0.7% 0.3%
21.6% 20.7% 27.5% 26.9% 23.7%
-0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.2% 1.0%
A
B
C
Total
243,444 (219,273) (369,035) (99,083) (443,946)
(2,340) 60,789 (62,474) 49,943 45,918
(10,370) (30,473) (24,371) 16,488 (48,726)
230,735 ( 188,957) ( 455,880) ( 32,651) (446,753)
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
14
No new multitenant construction on the horizon
• With more than 1.2 million square feet of space vacated year-to-date, Suburban Chicago continues to lack the demand necessary for speculative construction. The Producer Price index was up 6.5 percent year-over-year in August due to the increase in diesel fuel, copper, and steel prices. Since higher rents would be necessary to justify construction at increased material prices, it is unlikely that a new, speculative development will be delivered in the next few years.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
NEW DEVELOPMENTS
• The only office construction underway is limited to noncompetitive medical office developments and the build-to-suit North American headquarters for Astellas Pharma US in Glenview, which is managed by MB Real Estate. • After being delivered in December 2009, Bridge Development’s spec construction at 555 Aptakisic Road in Lincolnshire was fully leased by Sysmex late last quarter. As a result, the 160,000 square foot building is now being marketed for sale. The two-year lag between delivery and move-in will be a strong deterrent for developers. S U P P LY
• OUTLOOK: Suburban Chicago has an overabundance of vacant space that continues to grow. Numerous parcels are ready for development once demand warrants it, which will always keep rent growth to inflationary levels. Between shrinking occupancy and constrained financing, speculative development is unlikely for several years.
NEW DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 2010 Deliveries Building Address
Size (sf)
% Leased
Submarket
Comments
1901 Chestnut Ave, Glenview
110,000
100.0%
North
9501 Technology Blvd, Rosemont
119,000
74.8%
O'Hare
Delivered September 2010. Build-to-suit Headquarters for General Board of Pension & Health Benefits of The United Methodist Church. Construction managed by MB Real Estate. Delivered April 2010. Rosemont Corporate Center. Tenants: Cisco, Skyline Advanced Tech. Developed by Ryan Companies.
85,000
100.0%
East-West
Delivered March 2010. Tenants: Delta Dental, Ryan Companies. Developed by Ryan Companies.
% Leased
Submarket
Comments
111 Shuman Blvd, Naperville
Total - 3 Propperties
314,,000
2011 Deliveries Building Address
Size (sf)
Total - 0 Propperties
Under Construction Building Address
Size (sf) % Pre-leased
1 Astellas Pky, Glenview
440,000
Total - 1 Proppertyy
440,,000
100.0%
Due Date
Comments
Fall 2012
Broke ground April 2010. Build-to-suit North American Headquarters for Astellas Pharma US. Construction managed by MB Real Estate.
Due Date
Comments
Proposed Building Address
Size (sf) % Pre-leased
Total - 0 Properties
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
15
Sublease availability is reduced as large blocks roll to direct availability
• Four large sublease blocks became directly available this quarter, leading to a significant a drop in vacant sublease space. Since the end of 2010, sublease vacancy has decreased by 16.3 percent to 3.4 million square feet. • In addition to its 1.2 million square foot campus, AT&T is now listing a 239,000 square foot space at 2001 Lakewood Blvd in Hoffman Estates as available for sublease. Both properties were fully occupied by AT&T and therefore are not competitive with the multi-tenant properties that MB Real Estate tracks. However, this demonstrates how single-tenant properties can impact the multi-tenant market.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
SUBLEASE SPACE
• OUTLOOK: When the market is at equilibrium, roughly 3 million square feet of sublease space is available, meaning there is still room for reduction. As leases expire and switch to direct availability, sublease availability will decrease.
HISTORIC YEAR-END SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY: FALLING RAPIDLY S U P P LY
LARGE BLOCKS (MORE THAN 50,000 SQUARE FEET) OF SUBLEASE SPACE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE Class A Building Address
Occupancy
Expiration
Submarket
Sublandlord
2000 W AT&T Dr, Hoffman Estates 3 Overlook Pt, Lincolnshire 4201 Winfield Rd, Warrenville 3 Parkway Blvd N, Deerfield 1000 Milwaukee Ave, Glenview 1450 American Ln, Schaumburg 410 Warrenville Rd, Lisle
1,207,245 Vacant 290,143 Vacant 249,996 January 2012 232,836 July 2012 130,403 Vacant 65,259 Negotiable 60,434 Vacant
August 2016 February 2017 December 2014 April 2017 October 2016 May 2013
Northwest North East-West North North Northwest East-West
AT&T Hewitt Associates Navistar Astellas Pharma US AON Warranty Group Zurich American Insurance Company IKON Office Solutions
Total - 7 Spaces
2,236,316
Size (sf)
Class B Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Submarket
Sublandlord
6200 S Route 53, Lisle 2001 Lakewood Blvd, Hoffman Estates 5450 N Cumberland Ave, Chicago 750 N Commons Dr, Aurora
360,000 239,250 118,666 60,000
Vacant Negotiable Negotiable Negotiable
July 2012 February 2020 September 2017
East-West Northwest O'Hare East-West
Telcordia Technologies AT&T Océ-USA Holding Inc Westell Technologies
Total - 4 Spaces
777,916
Building Address
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
16
87 contiguous blocks greater than 50,000 square feet are available for lease
• The total number of large blocks decreased by three to 87, but the amount of square feet among available large blocks increased by 139,000. • The largest block removed during the quarter was a 168,000 square foot contiguous space at 1415 West Diehl Road in Naperville. Sickich leased the 84,000 square foot 4th floor late last quarter, while Comcast signed a lease for the 80,000 square foot 5th floor this quarter.
CLASS B Building Address
City
1200 Warrenville Rd 28100 Torch Pky 2000 Clearwater Dr 2400 Cabot Dr * 3800 Golf Rd 544 Lakeview Pky 2350-2360 E Devon Ave 1 Salem Lake Dr 4 Corporate Dr 700 N Wood Dale Rd 2850 W Golf Rd 703-709 W Algonquin Rd 4242 N Harlem Ave 800 Jorie Blvd 9801 W Higgins Rd 814 Commerce Dr 1245 Corporate Blvd 27545 Diehl Rd 1000 Lakeside Dr 1000 E Woodfield Rd 2400 E Devon Ave 21 Blocks of Space
Naperville Warrenville Oak Brook Lisle Rolling Meadows Vernon Hills Des Plaines Long Grove Long Grove Wood Dale Rolling Meadows Arlington Heights Norridge Oak Brook Rosemont Oak Brook Aurora Warrenville Bannockburn Schaumburg Des Plaines
Size (sf)
Submarket
329,770 203,842 198,250 194,052 156,574 144,999 142,596 140,252 133,422 125,328 110,942 96,213 93,155 88,886 78,682 66,882 64,960 62,440 56,745 51,410 51,000 2,590,400
East-West East-West East-West East-West Northwest North O'Hare Northwest North Northwest Northwest Northwest O'Hare East-West O'Hare East-West East-West East-West North Northwest O'Hare
Size (sf)
Submarket
206,770 195,393 75,996 51,845 530,004
Northwest Northwest North East-West
CLASS C Building Address
City
3501 Algonquin Rd 1299 Algonquin Rd 2-4-6 Genesee St 1950 S Batavia Ave 4 Blocks of Space
Rolling Meadows Schaumburg Waukegan Geneva
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market * Block of space is for future occupancy ** Block of space will be vacated during the upcoming quarter
City
21440 Lake Cook Rd 1600 McConnor Pky 1701 Golf Rd 1200 Lakeside Dr 700 Oakmont Ln 1 Corporate Dr 75 N Fairway Dr * 5550 Prairie Stone Pky * 150 NW Point Blvd 425 N Martingale Rd 1 Overlook Pt 1 Corporate Dr 2800 W Higgins Rd ** 3333 Beverly Rd 2895 Greenspoint Pky 9525 W Bryn Mawr Ave 1707 N Randall Rd 1707 N Randall Rd 2355 Waukegan Rd 3500 Lacey Rd * 1333 Butterfield Rd 8700 W Bryn Mawr Ave 1 Pierce Pl 6 Parkway Blvd N * 3333 Warrenville Rd 2550 W Golf Rd 75 Tri State International * 850-860 Technology Way 2655 Warrenville Rd 8700 W Bryn Mawr Ave * 333 Knightsbridge Pky 18W140 Butterfield Rd 2100 Sanders Rd 9500 W Bryn Mawr Ave 1000 Royce Blvd 3800 N Wilke Rd * 1011 Warrenville Rd 535 E Diehl Rd 300 Park Blvd 701 Warrenville Rd 3075 Highland Pky * 4201 Lake Cook Rd 1001 Warrenville Rd 3075 Highland Pky * 2 Corporate Dr 2001 Butterfield Rd 2 Pierce Pl 700 Commerce Dr 1 Tower Ln 9500 W Bryn Mawr Ave * 2333 Waukegan Rd 2100 Enterprise Ave 1900 West Field Ct ** 25 Tri State International * 1700 E Golf Rd 7400 N Caldwell Ave 2701 Patriot Blvd 3000 Lakeside Dr 410 Warrenville Rd 1650 Lake Cook Rd * 1701 Golf Rd 8725-8745 W Higgins Rd 62 Blocks of Space
Deer Park Schaumburg Rolling Meadows Bannockburn Westmont Long Grove Vernon Hills Hoffman Estates Elk Grove Village Schaumburg Lincolnshire Long Grove Hoffman Estates Hoffman Estates Hoffman Estates Rosemont Elgin Elgin Bannockburn Downers Grove Downers Grove Chicago Itasca Deerfield Lisle Rolling Meadows Lincolnshire Libertyville Downers Grove Chicago Lincolnshire Oakbrook Terrace Northbrook Rosemont Oakbrook Terrace Arlington Heights Lisle Naperville Itasca Lisle Downers Grove Northbrook Lisle Downers Grove Long Grove Downers Grove Itasca Oak Brook Oakbrook Terrace Rosemont Bannockburn Geneva Lake Forest Lincolnshire Schaumburg Niles Glenview Bannockburn Lisle Deerfield Rolling Meadows Chicago
Size (sf)
Submarket
351,425 300,686 281,528 257,190 256,767 204,965 200,344 193,601 190,164 163,330 148,686 142,130 139,518 129,000 127,941 113,868 109,076 109,076 106,495 103,199 102,096 97,801 97,517 95,854 89,334 81,060 79,534 78,000 76,691 76,469 74,728 74,259 72,565 72,149 70,000 68,755 68,523 67,731 67,307 67,233 67,013 66,000 65,441 65,434 64,871 61,758 60,904 58,203 57,426 56,554 56,543 55,584 55,000 54,966 54,496 54,000 53,671 53,316 52,793 52,000 51,908 50,214 6,474,690
Northwest Northwest Northwest North East-West North North Northwest Northwest Northwest North North Northwest Northwest Northwest O'Hare Northwest Northwest North East-West East-West O'Hare Northwest North East-West Northwest North North East-West O'Hare North East-West North O'Hare East-West Northwest East-West East-West Northwest East-West East-West North East-West East-West North East-West Northwest East-West East-West O'Hare North East-West North North Northwest North North North East-West North Northwest O'Hare
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
S U P P LY
• Two approximately 200,000 square foot blocks became directly available. Washington Mutual’s lease at 75 North Fairway Drive in Vernon Hills expired, creating a 200,000 square foot block. In Oak Brook, the entire 198,000 square foot building at 2000 Clearwater Drive is now available.
CLASS A Building Address
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
LARGE BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
17
Vacancy continues to climb as tenants shed space, relocate from the suburbs
• The direct vacancy rate increased by 0.4 percent to 23.7 percent. Including sublease, the total vacancy rate has now reached 26.7 percent. While Class B and C saw minor changes in vacancy, Class A saw its direct vacancy rate jump 0.7 percent to 21.1 percent during the quarter. The North and Northwest submarkets suffered large occupancy losses in Class A buildings.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
VACANCY RATES
• For the second consecutive quarter, the East-West submarket was the only one to experience an occupancy increase. The direct vacancy rate for Class A buildings in the East-West submarket has now dropped below 20 percent for the first time since the first quarter of 2010. • The Northwest submarket was the worst-performing submarket as its direct vacancy rate increased 1.5 percent to 27.5 percent. The Northwest has now surpassed O’Hare as having the highest vacancy rate in the suburbs. • OUTLOOK: Pervasive weakness continues in Suburban Chicago. Companies that built or currently occupy huge campuses on the outskirts of the city are reevaluating their real estate plans, including AT&T, Sears, Motorola, and Sara Lee. DEMAND
HISTORIC YEAR-END VACANCY RATES BY SUBMARKET: NORTHWEST AND O’HARE LAG
HISTORIC YEAR-END VACANCY RATES BY CLASS: B AND C PROPERTIES MORE THAN 1/4 VACANT
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
18
East-West sees the majority of large lease transactions as other submarkets lag behind
• The number of large lease transactions decreased compared to last quarter. The majority of these transactions took place in the EastWest. O’Hare was the only submarket without a lease transaction greater than 20,000 square feet. • For the second straight quarter, the largest new lease transaction was just 80,000 square feet. Comcast will vacate 50,000 square feet at 1901 South Meyers Road in Oakbrook Terrace and occupy an 80,000 square foot floor at 1415 West Diehl Road in Naperville. Millennium Trust will double its current space requirement when it moves to 2001 Spring Road in Oak Brook.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
LARGE DEALS
• State Farm Insurance signed the largest renewal transaction and will expand to nearly 154,000 square feet at 1400 Opus Place in Downers Grove. The company plans to consolidate several offices across Chicagoland. • While the North submarket had three leases signed more than 20,000 square feet, none will result in increased occupancy. DEMAND
• OUTLOOK: Large companies, who delayed real estate decision making due to headcount uncertainty following the downturn, will be forced to make decisions in upcoming quarters. Companies who expand at their current building are often doing so by consolidating other offices.
LARGE LEASE TRANSACTIONS: NEW ACTIVITY IS MUTED NEW Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Comcast Millennium Trust Co. Lincoln Financial Optimum Nutrition Intuit Thermos Hoogwegt U.S. Total - 7 Deals
Relo Relo Relo New New Relo New
East-West East-West Northwest East-West Northwest Northwest North
1415 W Diehl Rd, Naperville 2001 Spring Rd, Oak Brook 1701 Golf Rd (Tower III), Rolling Meadows 975 Meridian Lakes Dr, Aurora 95 W Algonquin 475 N Martingale Rd, Schaumburg 100 S Saunders, Lake Forest
Submarket
Building Address
East-West North East-West East-West East-West North Northwest East-West East-West East-West
1400 Opus Pl, Downers Grove 540 Lake Cook Rd, Deerfield 480 Quadrangle Dr, Bolingbrook 2 Mid America Plz, Oakbrook Terrace 3030 Warrenville Rd, Lisle 25 Tri State International, Lincolnshire 2850 W Golf Rd, Rolling Meadows 377 E Butterfield Rd, Lombard 377 E Butterfield, Lombard 3030 Warrenville Rd, Lisle
Size (sf) 80,000 72,000 47,364 37,133 24,805 21,081 20,752 303,135
RENEWAL/EXPANSION/SUBLEASE Tenant State Farm Insurance Mercer LexisNexis BCS Financial Corp. Hapag Lloyd USA Saputo Cheese USA Harco National Insurance NYK Logistics NYK Logistics Intrado Total - 10 Deals
Abbreviations: Cont - Contraction
Ren/Exp Ren Ren Ren/Exp Ren Ren Ren Ren Ren Ren
Exp - Expansion
Relo - Relocation
Size (sf) 153,893 63,298 51,650 43,000 29,000 27,483 25,000 22,000 22,000 21,000 458,324
Ren - Renewal
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
19
Occupancy losses accelerate; Outlook is bleak
• Negative absorption through the third quarter has now surpassed 2010 totals as tenants reduce their footprints and leases expire. Negative absorption since the beginning of the downturn has reached 6.9 million square feet. • OUTLOOK: There are no significant demand drivers in Suburban Chicago. Companies, such as Sears, are considering moving to other states to avoid the increased corporate income taxes. Without significant job creation, the future of the market is weak.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
ABSORPTION
SUBURBAN CHICAGO ABSORPTION BY CLASS: NEGATIVE ACROSS CLASSES
DEMAND
EAST-WEST
2003
2004
Class A
(1,044,708)
1,080,332
102,299
Class B
(499,928)
(25,541)
389,014
Class C Total
NORTH
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YTTD 2011
366,688
542,281
(259,973)
(520,909)
(219,164)
262,562
484,869
(203,072)
(2,062)
(461,943)
67,827
(107,224)
(49,662)
76,936
85,269
(125,850)
(108,813)
(87,441)
(217,479)
7,017
25,786
(1,594,298)
1,131,727
576,582
725,707
230,396
(349,476)
(1,200,330)
(144,319)
181,124
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YTD 2011
Class A
(617,229)
(10,452)
196,403
(100,049)
615,115
(240,617)
(486,877)
(312,238)
(267,373)
Class B
(51,905)
62,026
164,357
316,207
355,510
(60,982)
(585,395)
(319,078)
11,616
Class C
(45,023)
(39,173)
12,697
(39,440)
26,935
(2,048)
(276,642)
(40,044)
(75,325)
(714,157)
12,401
373,457
176,718
997,560
(303,647)
(1,348,914)
(671,360)
(331,083)
Total
NORTHWEST
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YTD 2011
Class A
(280,998)
902,901
225,865
(488,651)
10,333
(302,930)
(213,601)
(21,262)
(560,645)
Class B
(397,531)
233,613
(234,681)
12,266
(164,112)
(261,498)
(680,058)
(295,928)
(358,363)
Class C
22,431
(13,282)
(216,898)
(15,371)
(51,429)
(28,362)
(32,482)
(192,091)
(50,783)
(656,098)
1,123,232
(225,714)
(491,756)
(205,208)
(592,790)
(926,140)
(509,280)
(969,791)
Total
O'HARE
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YTD 2011
Class A
(159,845)
402,561
(55,786)
189,235
11,636
(256,325)
46,459
209,180
(90,761)
Class B
9,761
(306,424)
53,945
7,915
(81,167)
(51,601)
(291,145)
70,376
(19,928)
Class C
(39,147)
(15,002)
(204,597)
90,170
(50,022)
(35,696)
(377,565)
(10,855)
16,488
(189,231)
81,135
(206,438)
287,320
(119,553)
(343,622)
(622,251)
268,701
(94,200)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
YTD 2011
Class A
(2,102,780)
2,375,342
468,781
(32,777)
1,179,365
(1,059,845)
(1,174,928)
(343,484)
(656,216)
Class B
(939,603)
(36,326)
372,635
821,257
(92,841)
(376,143)
(2,018,540)
(476,802)
(473,899)
(111,401)
9,479
(323,529)
(90,491)
(183,329)
(153,547)
(904,168)
(235,972)
(83,834)
(3,153,784)
2,348,495
517,887
697,989
903,195
(1,589,535)
(4,097,636)
(1,056,259)
(1,213,949)
Total
TOTALS
Class C Total
*Numbers in parentheses are negative
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
20
Class A rents rebound from lows even though demand does not seem to warrant growth
• Over the last four quarters, gross asking rents have continued to hold fairly steady, with a slight decline overall. • The relative strength of the East-West Class A submarket is demonstrated by the 2.9 percent increase in gross asking rent in that segment over the last year. O'Hare Class B and C rates demonstrated the largest increases. Their significant rebound is due to drastic reductions that occurred last year as occupancy plummeted.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
GROSS ASKING RENTS
• No segment of the market fell dramatically this quarter. The North submarket's overall performance was the most negative, as it finally catches up to the performance of the others. • Compared to peak levels, overall gross asking rents have fallen 13.9 percent.
AVERAGE GROSS ASKING RATES BY CLASS AND SUBMARKET Average Direct Gross Asking Rent East-West North Northwest O'Hare Suburban Chicago Total
A $22.68 $21.43 $22.66 $22.61 $22.33
Change over last year 2.9% -3.4% -0.5% -1.6%
-0.3%
B $18.59 $19.78 $16.98 $19.95 $19.02
Change over last year -2.1% -1.3% -2.0% 4.1%
-1.1%
C $15.57 $16.21 $13.55 $15.14 $15.22
Change over last year -3.5% -2.0% -1.0% 14.3%
0.1%
Total
Change over last year
$20.33 $20.49 $20.17 $20.54 $20.35
0.5% -2.9% -0.9% 1.9% -0.5%
F E AT U R E S
• OUTLOOK: The relative stability of asking rents in Suburban Chicago shows that landlords are unable or unwilling to make more significant reductions despite falling occupancy. To compensate, concession packages must increase to entice tenants.
ASKING RATES REMAIN DOWN FROM ONE YEAR AGO
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
21
Most trades are at low values per square foot with an exception in the East-West submarket
• Investment sales closings in Suburban Chicago were mostly marked by distress, with only two core assets trading hands. American Realty Advisers bought 1415 & 1515 West 22nd Street in Oak Brook from TIAA-CREF for $174 per square foot. The premier, fully leased, building at 909 Davis Street in Evanston was sold to Franklin Street Properties for $180 per square foot. The remaining sales were all less than $100 per square foot.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
INVESTMENT SALES
• In the Northwest submarket, 1 Pierce Place and 500 Park Boulevard in Itasca are under contract. Caremark Towers, located at 2211 & 2215 Sanders Road in Northbrook is also under contract. • Among the buildings on the market, the largest are in Itasca in the Northwest submarket. The East-West submarket has an additional core offering in Burr Ridge. 1333 Burr Ridge Parkway is asking $200 per square foot. • OUTLOOK: While active, Suburban Chicago has not generated the premier investor interest that characterizes the CBD.
INVESTMENT SALES: INDICATIVE OF DISTRESS
Price per sf * Class Seller
Building Address
Submarket
Size (sf)
Price
Status (Buyer or Listing Agent)
1 Pierce Pl, Itasca
Northwest
578,737
-
-
A
Hamilton Partners
Under Contract
500 Park Blvd, Itasca
Northwest
450,614
-
-
A
Hamilton Partners
Under Contract
2211 & 2215 Sanders Rd, Northbrook
North
368,606
-
-
A
Angelo, Gordon & Co.
Under Contract
231 N Martingale Rd, Schaumburg
Northwest
317,198
-
-
A
Keystone Property Group
New on Market
1821, 1827 & 1834 Walden Office Sq, Schaumburg
Northwest
227,760
-
-
A
Cook County Sheriff
New on Market (Transwestern)
747 E 22nd St, Lombard
East-West
209,557
$12,000,000
$57
A
Vectren Utility Holdings
On Market (Jones Lang LaSalle)
150 NW Point Blvd, Elk Grove Village
Northwest
176,844
$22,000,000
$124
A
Kingsway Financial Services
On Market (CB Richard Ellis)
701 E 22nd St, Lombard
East-West
173,105
-
-
A
GID Investment LLC
On Market (Jones Lang LaSalle)
555 Aptakisic Rd, Lincolnshire
North
162,739
-
-
A
Bridge Development Partners LLC
New on Market (Holliday Fowler Fenoglio)
1500 W Shure Dr, Arlington Heights
Northwest
158,252
-
-
A
Younan Properties
On Market
1333 Burr Ridge Pky, Burr Ridge
East-West
150,000
$30,000,000
$200
A
1333 Burr Ridge Pky, L.P.
On Market (Holliday Fowler Fenoglio)
F E AT U R E S
On the Market: 3rd Quarter 2011
Investment Sales: 3rd Quarter 2011 Building Address
Submarket
Size (sf)
Price
Price per sf * Class Seller
Buyer
5600 N River Rd, 9450 W Bryn Mawr Ave, O'Hare & 9525 W Bryn Mawr Ave, Rosemont
608,224
$37,001,000
$61
A
Transwestern Investment Company
White Oak Realty Partners, LLC
1415 & 1515 W 22nd St, Oak Brook
East-West
402,318
$70,000,000 $174
A
TIAA-CREF
American Realty Advisors
55 Shuman Blvd, Naperville
East-West
218,185
$18,000,000
$82
A
GID Investment LLC
JV - Bixby Bridge Capital & Franklin Partners
909 Davis St, Evanston
North
195,245
$35,100,000 $180
A
American Real Estate Capital
Franklin Street Properties
2 TransAm Plaza Dr, Oakbrook Terrace
East-West
117,717
$7,000,000
$59
B
The BROE Group
The BROE Group
745 McClintock Dr, Burr Ridge
East-West
62,148
$4,000,000
$64
A
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
TRP Investments
B
John J and Phyllis C Harvey Family Trust
500 N Central Northfield Llc
500 N Central Ave, Northfield
North
29,741
$3,075,000 $103
* Price per square foot) - based off estimated selling price for new to market buildings
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
22
Losses match economy but further declines expected
Suburban Chicago's occupancy losses are now nearly on par with metro area employment losses. However, due to the increasing preference of tenants for the CBD, Suburban Chicago will see more than its proportionate share of negative demand.
Since occupancy peaked in 2007, it has fallen 7.4 percent in Suburban Chicago. Total employment declined 7.5 percent in the Chicago MSA peak-totrough. Yet for factors mentioned above, the total occupancy loss is expected to be greater than the employment loss on a percentage basis. MB Real Estate expects occupancy declines to continue until 2012. The large losses from 2009 are not expected again, but tenants still need to shave off excess space when their leases expire. Starting in 2013, positive absorption will occur but will be representative of slow growth within existing companies.
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (sf)
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (sf)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
90,601,193 91,989,948 95,078,215 98,744,696 103,270,399 108,254,000 109,769,838 110,090,266 110,423,452 111,030,084 110,806,221 111,175,875 112,080,944 112,218,212 112,374,614 112,262,156 112,262,156
82,039,636 85,388,879 88,016,285 90,321,332 93,033,912 92,247,968 91,258,173 88,104,389 90,452,884 90,970,771 91,668,760 92,571,955 90,982,420 87,973,132 86,916,873 85,136,181 84,427,752
1997-2010 Absorption Avg:
478,543
YTD 2011 Absorption:
(1,213,949)
Direct Vacancy % 9.4% 7.2% 7.4% 8.5% 9.9% 14.8% 16.9% 20.0% 18.1% 18.1% 17.3% 16.7% 18.8% 21.6% 22.7% 24.2% 24.8%
F E AT U R E S
Suburban Chicago lacks the dynamic demand drivers like tech companies that are increasingly looking to locate in the CBD. With increasing tax burdens in Illinois and a waning ability to attract top workers to the suburbs, the market is seeing long-time tenants seek relocation options. On top of that, vacancies due to the recession are still filtering through the market, as was the case for Ameriquest Mortgage in the Northwest submarket.
Year
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
FORECAST
Total projected inventory based on addition of projects currently under construction Occupancy is forecast based on proprietary assumptions regarding the Chicago MSA’s total employment change and the office industry’s historical performance which trails the overall economy.
HISTORIC & PROJECTED VACANCY: OVERALL VACANCY RATE WILL PEAK NEAR 25%
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
23
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
SUBMARKET MAP
F E AT U R E S THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
24
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
20,618,272
262,562
243,444
4,050,836
19.6%
16,567,436
887,120
23.9%
14,542,179
(107,224)
(2,340)
3,471,390
23.9%
11,070,790
517,424
27.4%
Class C
4,910,365
25,786
(10,370)
1,133,974
23.1%
3,776,391
2,865
23.2%
Total
40,070,816
181,124
230,735
8,656,199
21.6%
31,414,617
1,407,409
25.1%
NORTH
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
Class A
16,873,552
(267,373)
(219,273)
3,460,510
20.5%
13,413,042
988,201
26.4%
Class B
7,442,387
11,616
60,789
1,535,925
20.6%
5,906,462
96,351
21.9%
EAST-WEST
RBA (sf)
Class A Class B
2,560,495
(75,325)
(30,473)
575,303
22.5%
1,985,192
13,858
23.0%
Total
26,876,434
(331,083)
(188,957)
5,571,738
20.7%
21,304,696
1,098,410
24.8%
NORTHWEST
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
Class A
18,526,958
(560,645)
(369,035)
4,265,520
23.0%
14,261,438
302,014
24.7%
Class B
9,759,079
(358,363)
(62,474)
3,412,449
35.0%
6,346,629
126,253
36.3%
Class C
2,312,562
(50,783)
(24,371)
722,702
31.3%
1,589,860
31,596
32.6%
Total
30,598,599
(969,791)
(455,880)
8,400,671
27.5%
22,197,928
459,863
29.0%
O'HARE
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
Class A
7,826,174
(90,761)
(99,083)
1,696,289
21.7%
6,129,885
215,254
24.4%
Class B
4,347,075
(19,928)
49,943
1,358,542
31.3%
2,988,534
190,656
35.6%
Class C
2,543,059
16,488
16,488
907,883
35.7%
1,635,176
2,695
35.8%
Total
14,716,308
(94,200)
(32,651)
3,962,714
26.9%
10,753,594
408,605
29.7%
TOTALS
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
Class A
63,844,955
(656,216)
(443,946)
13,473,155
21.1%
50,371,801
2,392,589
24.9%
Class B
36,090,720
(473,899)
45,918
9,778,305
27.1%
26,312,415
930,684
29.7%
Class C
12,326,481
(83,834)
(48,726)
3,339,862
27.1%
8,986,619
51,014
27.5%
Total Suburban
112,262,156
(1,213,949)
(446,753)
26,591,322
23.7%
85,670,835
3,374,287
26.7%
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
F E AT U R E S
Class C
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
MARKET STATISTICS
25
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION GLOSSARY Absorption: The net change in occupied space over a given period of time. Unless otherwise noted, Net Absorption includes direct and sublease space.
Rental Rates: The annual costs of occupancy for a particular space quoted on a per square foot basis.
Asking Rent: The published rental rate for a space in a building, which may vary from the rent which is negotiated upon by the tenant and landlord.
Sales Price: The total dollar amount paid for a particular property at a particular point in time.
Central Business District: The designations of Central Business District (CBD) and Suburban refer to a particular geographic area within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) describing the level of real estate development found there. The CBD is characterized by a high density, well organized core within the largest city of a given MSA.
SF: Abbreviation for Square Feet.
Class: A classification used to describe buildings, with Class A reflecting the highest quality and Class C reflecting the lowest quality. Direct Vacant Space: Space that is being offered for lease directly from the landlord or owner of a building, as opposed to space being offered in a building by another tenant (or broker of a tenant) trying to sublet a space that has already been leased.
CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
SECTION FOUR
Sublease Space: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Sublease space is sometimes referred to as sublet space. Submarkets: Specific geographic boundaries that serve to delineate a core group of buildings that are competitive with each other and constitute a generally accepted primary competitive set, or peer group. Submarkets are building type specific (office, industrial, retail, etc.), with distinct boundaries dependent on different factors relevant to each building type. Submarkets are non-overlapping, contiguous geographic designations having a cumulative sum that matches the boundaries of the Market they are located within.
Initial Rate: The contracted starting rental rate for the first term of a lease. Inventory: The square footage of buildings that have received a certificate of occupancy and are able to be occupied by tenants. Calculated by adding the Rentable Building Area (RBA) of all properties in a market or submarket. Large Block: The amount of contiguous space available in a building in terms of square footage. Contiguous spaces over 50,000 square feet are considered large by MB Real Estate. Lease Comparable: Comparables are properties with characteristics that are similar in nature. Their signing lease rates and other contracted elements are aggregated to analyze contracted market conditions as opposed to asking market conditions. Market: Geographic boundaries that serve to delineate core areas that are competitive with each other and constitute a generally accepted primary competitive set of areas. Markets are building type specific and are nonoverlapping contiguous geographic designations. Markets can be further subdivided into Submarkets. Net Rental Rate: A rental rate that excludes certain expenses that a tenant could incur in occupying office space. Such expenses are expected to be paid directly by the tenant and may include janitorial costs, electricity, utilities, taxes, insurance and other related costs. Preleased Space: The amount of space in a building that has been leased prior to its construction completion date, or certificate of occupancy date. Price/SF: Calculated by dividing the price of a building (either sales price or asking sales price) by the Rentable Building Area (RBA). Rentable Building Area (RBA): The total building square footage that can be occupied by or assigned to a tenant for the purpose of determining a tenant’s rental obligation. Generally, RBA includes a percentage of common areas including all hallways, main lobbies, bathrooms, and telephone closets.
Suburban: The Suburban and Central Business District (CBD) designations refer to a particular geographic area within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Suburban is defined as including all office inventory not located in the CBD. Tenant Improvement: Those changes to property to accommodate specific needs of a tenant. TIs include installation or relocation of interior walls or partitions, carpeting or other floor covering, shelves, windows, toilets, etc. The cost of these is negotiated in the lease. Total Vacant Space: Direct plus sublease vacant space. Under Construction: The status of a building that is in the process of being developed, assembled, built or constructed. A building is considered to be under construction after it has begun construction and until it receives a certificate of occupancy. Vacancy Rate: A measurement expressed as a percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Under construction space generally is not included in vacancy calculations. Vacancy rate can be based on direct, sublease, or total vacant space. Vacant Space: Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation that may be on the space. Vacant space could be space that is either available or not available. For example, sublease space that is currently being paid for by a tenant but not occupied by that tenant, would be considered vacant space. Likewise, space that has been leased but not yet occupied because of finish work being done, would also be considered vacant space. YTD: Abbreviation for Year-to-Date. Describes statistics that are cumulative from the beginning of a calendar year through whatever time period is being studied.
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
26
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M B R E A L E S TAT E
ABOUT MB REAL ESTATE
At MB Real Estate, our corporate mission is to maximize the value of our clients’ real estate by creating timely and innovative solutions that meet their unique needs and objectives. We offer the highest level of real estate support with our team of committed, resultsdriven experts in asset and facilities management, leasing, tenant representation, development, project management, and investment services. Supported by dedicated accounting, marketing, human resources, and information technology teams, our unique full-service firm is an industry leader in local and national corporate real estate.
MB REAL ESTATE HEADQUARTERS
DEPARTMENT LEADERSHIP
181 West Madison, Suite 4700 Chicago, Illinois 60602 phone: 312.726.1700 fax: 312.807.3853
MARK A. BUTH
EAST COAST REGIONAL HEADQUARTERS
GARY A. DENENBERG
335 Madison Avenue, 14th Floor New York, New York 10017 phone: 212.350.2300 fax: 212.350.2301
Senior Vice President & Managing Director of Leasing Services
ANDREW J. DAVIDSON Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Corporate Services & Tenant Advisory
Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Leasing Services
DAVID R. GRAFF Senior Vice President of Project Services
MAUREEN G. GROVE Vice President & Managing Director of Accounting Services
COMPANY LEADERSHIP PETER E. RICKER Chairman & CEO
JOHN T. MURPHY
DANIEL J. NIKITAS Executive Vice President of Corporate Services & Tenant Advisory Services
KEVIN M. PURCELL Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Asset Management
President
PATRICIA ALUISI Senior Vice President & Managing Director of Administration
THIRD QUARTER 2011 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
27