SECTION TITLE SECTION SUBTITLE
FIRST
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2013
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SECTION #
CHICAGO
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FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
1
F I R S T Q UA RT E R
2013 CHICAGO
MARKET OVERVIEW
TABLE OF CONTENTS SE CT ION ONE
CHICAGO ECONOMY 01 Economic Analysis
SE CT ION T WO
CHICAGO CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
MARKET OVERVIEW
02 Chicago CBD Executive Summary SUPPLY 03 New Development 04 Sublease Space 05 Large Blocks of Direct Availability DEMAND 06 Vacancy Rates 07 Large Deals 08 Absorption FEATURES
2013
09 10 11 12 13
Lease Comparables Investment Sales Forecast Submarket Map Market Statistics
SE CT ION T H RE E
SUBURBAN CHICAGO 14 Suburban Chicago Executive Summary SUPPLY
The Chicago Market Overview is published quarterly by MB Real Estate.
15 New Developments 16 Sublease Space 17 Large Blocks of Direct Availability
To obtain additional copies or for further information, please contact:
SCOTT MASON Research Coordinator
181 West Madison Street, Suite 4700 Chicago, Illinois 60602 (312) 726-1700 www.mbres.com
DEMAND 18 Vacancy Rates 19 Large Deals 20 Absorption FEATURES 21 22 23 24 25
Gross Asking Rents Investment Sales Forecast Submarket Map Market Statistics
SE CT ION FOUR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 26 Glossary 27 About MB Real Estate
CHICAGO ECONOMY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Despite lingering uncertainty surrounding the fiscal health of Illinois, Chicago’s economy showed signs of a strengthening recovery as total non-farm employment levels increased 1.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. Significant gains in office-using industries comprised much of the increase in employment. Since January 2010 the Chicago-Naperville-Joliet MSA Professional and Business Services sector has grown 2.8 percent, adding over 71,000 jobs. The Financial Activities industry has slowly begun to recover, experiencing year-over-year job growth above 1.5 percent for the first time since 2006. The Construction industry is still struggling to recover jobs shed since the recession, but hiring has improved as February saw the largest one month gain, 46,000 jobs nationally, in nearly six years and should continue to strengthen as summer arrives and activity increases.
CHICAGO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
SECTION ONE
One of the strengths of the local economy is Mayor Emanuel’s campaign to attract companies to Chicago’s Central Business District (CBD). Two years into his term, Mayor Emanuel has announced the relocation or expansion of nearly 85 companies within Chicago. Clayco recently announced that it would relocate its national headquarters and 300 jobs to downtown Chicago from St. Louis. Motorola Solutions announced that it would add 300 jobs throughout the CBD in 2013. Most recently announced, Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp will bring over 100 jobs to the CBD when they move their headquarters during the third quarter. While these job announcements are positive developments and highlight the cautiously optimistic outlook many employers hold for the near future, the net effect is tempered with many companies right-sizing and occupying less space per square foot per employee. Even so, Manpower, a workforce solutions agency, released a survey in which 19 percent of Midwest employers anticipated increasing headcounts in the second quarter of 2013, compared to only 5 percent anticipating a decrease. The survey concludes that a net 12 percent of employers will grow their workforce, just a 1.0 percent improvement on the previous quarter’s outlook. On a positive note, Professional and Business Services, an office-intensive sector, had the second-highest hiring expectations with 24 percent of employers planning to increase their headcounts as opposed to just 4 percent predicting a decrease. In a state dealing with financial woes, Chicago, as judged by Moody’s Economy.com, is one of the few cities whose economy is considered to be “firmly in recovery.” To further highlight this, Economy.com reported that for the first time in almost a year, less than half of Chicago’s private industries are contracting. Chicago benefits from being the major business, distribution, and financial hub of the Midwest. It also has a large talent pool, strong educational institutions, and relatively high per capita income. Despite this, Economy.com cites that fiscal issues, infrastructure in need of repair, and below-average population growth are preventing a more robust recovery. While uncertainty remains in the state of Illinois, numerous improving indices point towards continued job growth in Chicago, albeit at a slower pace than recoveries in the past. Total employment in the Chicago MSA fell 7.4 percent peak-to-trough and has only rebounded 4.1 percent since its low point in December 2009. Compared to the 2001 recession, total employment during the most recent recession fell further and has been markedly slower to recover. For the Chicago office market to experience significant improvement, the mayor’s office will need to continue its pursuit of relocations to Chicago and expansions of existing companies along with more aggressive job creation. MBRE’s baseline forecast expects modest positive absorption over the next two years, resulting in a slowly declining vacancy rate. Sources: MBRE Research, AGC of America, BLS, Chicago Tribune, Crain’s Chicago Business, World Business Chicago, Moody’s Economy.com
Chicago MSA Total Non-farm Employment (millions, SA)
CHICAGO EMPLOYMENT WELL BELOW PEAK AND RECOVERING SLOWLY 4.7 4.6
4.59 -4.4%
4.5
+3.3%
4.54
4.57 4.40
-7.4%
4.39
4.4
+4.0%
4.3
4.23
4.2 4.1 4.0
01/01
10/03
12/06
2001 Recession Peak Employment
Trough Employment
01/08
12/09
02/13
2008-2009 Recession Employment 38 months post-trough FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
1
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Following a three quarter period during which occupancy increased by 911,000 square feet, the CBD experienced only 21,000 square feet of positive absorption in the first quarter. The demand seen thus far this year has been consistent with MBRE’s baseline forecast of a modest recovery in the near term. Key Indicators: • Direct vacancy declined less than 10 basis points, falling just below 15.1 percent. Class A buildings were the only segment to experience net positive absorption. The East Loop outperformed the overall market and was one of two submarkets to experience positive absorption in all building classes. •
No new developments were announced this quarter. Hines broke ground on its 45-story, 900,000 square foot tower at 444 West Lake with completion slated for mid-2016. There are 11 sites that have been actively marketed to prospective anchor tenants.
•
The West Loop continues to be the most active submarket for large users with six leases over 20,000 square feet signed during the quarter. In addition, McDermott Will & Emery has signed a letter of intent to anchor 225,000 square feet in the new development at 444 West Lake.
•
In contrast to recent quarters, Class A rental rates for new transactions decreased 2.0 percent on a year-over-year basis. Concessions were mixed, average tenant improvement allowances fell 9.2 percent while average rent abatement increased by 1.0 percent.
•
Underutilized space remains the biggest concern to the outlook of the market as tenants such as the law firm Winston & Strawn look to right-size their space requirements. Other risks include: increased national and state tax rates; residual effects of the Eurozone crisis; shrinking space requirements per employee; reduced storage needs due to digital archiving; reduced server space needs due to cloud computing; and increased health care costs.
•
Potential upsides to the outlook include: the increased trend of businesses relocating to the CBD, rapidly expanding tech firms, a tightening market with no new supply expected until at least 2016, and increased corporate confidence.
CHICAGO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
SECTION TWO
Four straight quarters of positive absorption and increased investment activity bodes well for the market. That said, a struggling Class C market coupled with underutilized space and slow job growth continues to hamper the recovery. As such, MB Real Estate’s baseline forecast predicts modest positive absorption, resulting in a slight decline in vacancy over the next two years.
CBD VACANCY AND YEAR-END ABSORPTION SUMMARY Direct Vacancy 1Q2013 Central Loop East Loop N. Michigan Ave. River North South Loop West Loop CBD Chicago Total Net Absorption 1Q2013 Central Loop East Loop N. Michigan Ave. River North South Loop West Loop CBD Chicago Total
A 9.2% 15.5% 17.1% 9.8% 27.9% 14.0% 13.1%
Change from 4Q2012 0.2% -2.3% -0.7% -1.4% -1.8% -0.5%
-0.6%
B
Change from 4Q2012
16.1% 24.2% 24.7% 6.2%
0.3% -0.5% 1.4% 0.4%
11.3% 17.1%
0.3%
0.5%
C 17.1% 14.2% 20.1% 9.7% 24.0% 17.4% 15.9%
Change from 4Q2012 1.4% 0.0% 0.3% -0.1% -1.2% 1.6%
0.7%
Total
Change from 4Q2012
13.8% 19.0% 20.8% 8.8% 25.8% 13.9% 15.1%
0.6% -0.7% 0.3% -0.3% -1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
A
B
C
Total
(32,312) 93,566 31,239 53,842 18,513 158,864 323,712
(29,491) 76,447 (53,942) 13,412
(116,136) 6,996 (34,652) (18,335) 6,044 (106,593) (262,677)
(177,939) 177,009 (57,356) 48,919 24,557 5,354 20,544
(46,916) (40,491)
Numbers in parentheses are negative
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
2
Ground broken on the first new development since 2009 •
•
•
•
Prompting the construction at 444 West Lake and increased speculation at other West Loop development sites is the constraint on large, contiguous spaces. There are currently 12 tenants touring the market for requirements of at least 100,000 square feet. Such tenants have limited relocation options, as only 10 contiguous blocks of Class A space greater than 100,000 square feet are currently available. Just west of the CBD’s official boundaries, Sterling Bay is redeveloping a 545,000 square foot former cold storage facility at 1000 West Fulton. The project, dubbed 1K Fulton, is scheduled to be completed in the first quarter of 2014. SRAM became the building’s first tenant by preleasing 77,000 square feet. MB Real Estate has identified 11 proposed new developments ranging from 350,000 to 1.3 million square feet. Many of these projects will require at least 60 percent preleasing, but Hines has demonstrated that construction can move forward without traditional financing.
% Leased (Avg)
2000 - 2013 INVENTORY ADDITIONS 2000 - 5 Properties 2001 - 2 Properties 2002 - 2 Properties 2003 - 0 Properties 2004 - 1 Property 2005 - 2 Properties 2006 - 2 Properties 2007 - 0 Properties 2008 - 2 Properties 2009 - 3 Properties 2010 - 1 Expansion 2011 - 0 Properties 2012 - 0 Properties 2013 - 0 Properties
2,870,576 904,436 2,236,364 0 1,300,000 2,500,143 1,320,498 0 728,254 3,652,913 933,710 0 0 0
sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf
95.8% 86.9% 94.6% 0.0% 100.0% 97.4% 96.9% 0.0% 70.6% 81.4% 92.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16,446,894 sf
Total - 20 Properties
UNDER CONSTRUCTION/ANNOUNCED
SUPPLY
•
No new developments were formally announced this quarter. Hines has broken ground on its 45-story, 900,000 square foot building at 444 West Lake and is looking to continue leasing after agreeing to terms with McDermott Will & Emery. The developer obtained $300 million to construct the building from Montrealbased Ivanhoe Cambridge and an additional $29.5 million from the City of Chicago for a surrounding park. Completion is still slated for mid-2016.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
NEW DEVELOPMENT
% Leased
444 West Lake
900,000 sf
Total
900,000 sf
25.0%
2000-2013 INVENTORY ADDITIONS Delivered (2000-2012) Delivered (2013)
16,446,894 sf 0 sf
Total Under Construction/Announced Proposed Inventory
16,446,894 sf 900,000 sf 4,922,564 sf
5,822,564 sf
Total
OUTLOOK: The amount of new construction will be fueled by the number of large tenants seeking trophy space and the availability of large blocks of Class A space. A smaller development has the potential to be delivered before 444 West Lake. By 2016, demand is expected to be great enough to warrant new office developments.
NO NEW DELIVERIES EXPECTED UNTIL 2016 4,000,000
20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 (1,000,000) (2,000,000) 2002
2003
2004
2005
New Construction Delivery (square feet)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Absorption (square feet)
2011
2012
YTD 2013
Direct Vacancy Rate %
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
3
Sublease availability expands even as the sizes of large blocks dwindle The amount of total available sublease space increased by 51,000 square feet since last quarter. At 3.3 million square feet, total sublease availability remains below its historical average of 3.6 million square feet.
•
One large sublease block was removed during the quarter at 100 North Riverside due to a 5,000 square foot lease, while one was added. A large, long-term sublease is now available within Winston & Strawn’s space at 35 West Wacker. The law firm recently downsized and is seeking a subtenant for 75,000 square feet through December 2024.
•
Go Health subleased 30,000 square feet from Cap Gemini at 111 North Canal. The health insurance company will occupy the 15th floor and plans to bring 150 jobs to the CBD by the end of 2013.
•
OUTLOOK: Companies will continue to reconsider employee headcount and space efficiency, turning to “hoteling” and smaller office sizes, causing sublease availability to fluctuate. Companies such as law firms who traditionally have large space per employee ratios will be especially active in trying to right-size through subleasing.
YEAR-TO-DATE SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY UP SLIGHTLY, BUT BELOW LONG-TERM AVERAGE 7,000,000
SUPPLY
•
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SUBLEASE SPACE
6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000
4,644,911
3,714,187
2,376,184
2,404,109
3,158,562
4,201,801
3,576,846
2,897,711
3,214,365
3,265,643
0
4,467,890
1,000,000
5,458,623
2,000,000
6,164,679
3,000,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD 2013
LARGE BLOCKS (MORE THAN 50,000 SQUARE FEET) OF SUBLEASE SPACE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE CLASS A Building Address
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Floor(s)
Sublandlord
77 W Wacker Dr 131 S Dearborn St 35 W Wacker Dr 1 N Wacker Dr 131 S Dearborn St 111 S Wacker Dr 111 S Wacker Dr 225 W Wacker Dr
130,968 128,622 75,000 65,496 64,125 55,400 54,200 51,120
April 2013 Vacant 90 Days Vacant Vacant 30 Days Vacant 30 Days
February 2022 October 2017 December 2024 March 2015 October 2017 January 2021 May 2015 March 2022
11-19 7-8 35-37 19-20 10 45-46 37-38 26-27
United Airlines Citadel Winston & Strawn Merrill Lynch Citadel Locke, Lord, Bissell & Liddell R.R. Donnelley Edwards Wildman Palmer
Total - 8 Spaces
624,931
CLASS B Building Address
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Floor(s)
Sublandlord
225 W Randolph St 350 W Mart Ctr 600 W Chicago Ave 222 Merchandise Mart Plz 222 N LaSalle St 205 N Michigan Ave
238,778 126,402 117,101 93,799 78,974 65,463
Negotiable Vacant Vacant Negotiable Vacant 30 Days
December 2022 January 2016 November 2015 January 2016 May 2014 April 2016
22-30 4 2 5 17-18 5-7
AT&T AT&T Level 3 Communications Career Education Corporation Merrill Lynch Verizon
Total - 6 Spaces
720,517
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
4
Availability continues to rise in Class B and C buildings •
The number of directly available, contiguous blocks greater than 50,000 square feet increased during the quarter by 2 to 70. Large block availability continued to drop in Class A, while 2 Class B and 1 Class C blocks are newly available. The two largest blocks removed during the quarter were the 52,000 square foot block at 525 West Van Buren and the 55,000 square foot block at 225 North Michigan. Smaller leases signed within each block lowered the contiguous availability below the 50,000 square foot threshold.
•
The greatest new block is a 131,000 square foot contiguous space at 111 North Canal. The owners of 222 South Riverside are now marketing a 103,000 square foot block that will be available at the beginning of 2014. There are now 7 blocks of at least 250,000 square feet available for lease, one more than the previous quarter with the block at 540 West Madison having increased from 167,000 square feet to 251,000 square feet as Bank of America continues to give back space.
•
MB Real Estate has identified 33 tenants actively seeking 50,000 square feet or more in the CBD. However, with 70 blocks available, a glut of space exists in the market. Coupled with the ability to renew, large tenants continue to have a multitude of options. CLASS B Building Address 130 E Randolph St * 410 N Michigan Ave * 222 N LaSalle St * 300 S Riverside Plz * 303 E Wacker Dr 130 E Randolph St * 130 E Randolph St 333 S Wabash Ave ** 401 N Michigan Ave 222 S Riverside Plz * 1 N Dearborn St 120 S LaSalle St ** 200 N LaSalle St 222 Merchandise Mart Plz 175 W Jackson Blvd 175 W Jackson Blvd * 175 W Jackson Blvd 444 N Michigan Ave 111 E Wacker Dr 233 N Michigan Ave 175 W Jackson Blvd * 230 W Monroe St * 303 E Wacker Dr 222 N LaSalle St 303 E Wacker Dr * 100 S Wacker Dr * 26 Blocks
Size (sf)
Submarket
256,720 214,849 199,132 198,302 174,125 155,829 128,948 112,000 104,990 103,128 97,261 94,995 94,875 68,829 68,539 67,794 67,725 67,575 67,216 67,028 65,930 60,184 56,520 56,424 52,553 51,488 2,752,959
East Loop North Michigan Avenue Central Loop West Loop East Loop East Loop East Loop East Loop North Michigan Avenue West Loop Central Loop Central Loop Central Loop River North Central Loop Central Loop Central Loop North Michigan Avenue East Loop East Loop Central Loop West Loop East Loop Central Loop East Loop West Loop
515 N State St * 500 W Monroe St 200 E Randolph St 233 S Wacker Dr ** 540 W Madison St * 101 E Erie St * 440 S LaSalle St * 10 S Dearborn St * 233 S Wacker Dr ** 227 W Monroe St * 233 S Wacker Dr ** 455 N Cityfront Plaza Dr 30 S Wacker Dr 333 W Wacker Dr 1 S Wacker Dr * 1 S Wacker Dr 77 W Wacker Dr 311 S Wacker Dr * 200 E Randolph St 980 N Michigan Ave 321 N Clark St 222 W Adams St 440 S LaSalle St * 200 E Randolph St 440 S LaSalle St * 233 S Wacker Dr ** 233 S Wacker Dr ** 227 W Monroe St * 28 Blocks
Size (sf)
Submarket
350,906 338,131 306,163 285,994 250,553 217,569 162,517 139,165 125,553 103,122 91,807 89,854 86,573 80,736 76,114 74,363 67,342 65,150 64,952 62,384 61,431 59,436 55,475 54,710 53,143 52,268 51,980 51,423 3,478,814
North Michigan Avenue West Loop East Loop West Loop West Loop North Michigan Avenue South Loop Central Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop North Michigan Avenue West Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop West Loop East Loop North Michigan Avenue River North West Loop South Loop East Loop South Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop
SUPPLY
•
CLASS A Building Address
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LARGE BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
CLASS C Building Address 435-445 N Michigan Ave ** 311 W Monroe St * 401-465 E Illinois St 111 N Canal St 111 N Canal St 401 S State St 619 S LaSalle St 111 N Canal St 350 W Mart Ctr * 350 W Mart Ctr 360 N Michigan Ave 740 N Rush St 33 S State St 350 W Mart Ctr 104 S Michigan Ave 211 E Chicago Ave 16 Blocks
Size (sf)
Submarket
316,190 214,490 210,000 176,520 131,250 110,898 89,000 88,479 87,404 87,393 76,855 71,501 70,107 64,661 59,206 53,052 1,907,006
North Michigan Avenue West Loop North Michigan Avenue West Loop West Loop East Loop South Loop West Loop River North River North East Loop North Michigan Avenue East Loop River North East Loop North Michigan Avenue
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market * Block of space is for future occupancy **Block of space will be vacated in the upcoming quarter
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
5
Minimal new demand leads to little change in vacancy rate The direct vacancy rate in the CBD dropped for the third consecutive quarter, although by only a small margin, falling less than 10 basis points to just below 15.1 percent. However, with this minor improvement, direct vacancy is at its lowest level since 2009. Class A buildings, the only class to experience positive absorption, saw its direct vacancy rate fall 60 basis points to 13.1 percent. Class B and C buildings both experienced negative absorption over the quarter, increasing direct vacancy to 17.1 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively.
•
River North remains the tightest submarket in the CBD with an 8.8 percent direct vacancy rate, which is down 30 basis points over the previous quarter. The East Loop, and South Loop submarkets, despite experiencing positive absorption during the quarter, both have direct vacancies well above average for the CBD.
•
OUTLOOK: MB Real Estate expects some volatility in vacancy rates on a quarterly basis. However, economic trends suggest that vacancy will continue to decline through 2013 as remaining availability in high demand submarkets tightens.
HISTORIC DIRECT VACANCY: RATE REMAINS UNCHANGED OVER PREVIOUS QUARTER
DEMAND
•
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
VACANCY RATES
18% 16% 14% 12%
11.4%
13.7%
14.6%
15.7%
17.6%
14.3%
11.7%
11.5%
15.3%
16.0%
15.4%
15.1%
15.1%
8%
9.8%
10%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD 2013
HISTORIC YEAR-END DIRECT VACANCY MARKET BY CLASS: CLASS A VACANCY CONTINUES ITS DESCENT 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2000
2001
2002 Class A
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Class B
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD 2013
Class C
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
6
Large lease activity slows as decision-makers consider new developments Plante Moran signed the largest deal of the quarter, consolidating its space at 225 West Washington into its existing space at 10 South Riverside. The public accounting and business advisory firm did not expand their current 85,000 square foot lease at 10 South Riverside, but maintained an expansion option.
•
The Suburban to CBD trend continues as the financial services firm, Guggenheim Partners, prepares to move its suburban employees to 227 West Monroe where they signed a 76,000 square foot renewal and expansion on the 7th and 8th floors. Press Ganey, a healthcare consulting firm, will relocate into a 25,000 square foot sublease at 1 North Franklin, moving some operations from the suburbs and Indiana.
•
Large lease transactions were muted in the first quarter as companies analyze their space requirements and wait for possible new developments as well as new legislation to finalize. To date, the only leases greater than 100,000 square feet are still in the negotiation phase. The most notable of which are SNR Denton considering a 125,000 square foot expansion/renewal at 233 South Wacker (Willis Tower) and McDermott Will & Emery signing a letter of intent to lease 225,000 square feet at the yet-to-be-built 444 West Lake.
•
OUTLOOK: Tenants have shown increased confidence in real estate decision-making as economic fears slowly ease. Large deal activity should pick up through 2013, but several companies evaluating the market are expected to shed space from their current footprint.
DEMAND
•
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LARGE DEALS
LARGE LEASE TRANSACTIONS NEW Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Size (sf)
Guggenheim CBRE Associated Bank Responsys Unite Here Union Total - 5 Deals
New New New New Relo
West Loop River North West Loop Central Loop East Loop
227 W Monroe 321 N Clark 525 W Monroe 111 W Jackson 218 S Wabash
75,850 60,000 35,000 24,309 22,886 218,045
RENEWAL/EXPANSION/SUBLEASE Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Size (sf)
Plante Moran Clayco Belvedere Trading Truven Health Analytics W.W. Grainger Franczek Radelet Go Health TIAA-CREF Spot Trading Press Ganey TechNexus Total - 11 Deals
Cons Exp Ren Ext Exp Ren Sub Exp/Ren Ren Sub Ren
West Loop East Loop West Loop Central Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop South Loop West Loop West Loop
10 S Riverside 35 E Wacker 10 S Riverside 1 N Dearborn 500 W Madison 300 S Wacker 111 N Canal 200 N LaSalle 440 S LaSalle 1 N Franklin 200 S Wacker
85,000 70,000 50,000 40,695 36,577 36,113 30,000 27,000 25,673 25,000 22,183 448,241
Abbreviations: Cons - Consolidation Cont - Contraction Exp - Expansion Relo - Relocation Ren - Renewal Sub - Sublease
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
7
Class C Buildings drag down the market Net quarterly positive absorption totaled 21,000 square feet. Class B, and especially Class C, buildings struggled, combining for net negative absorption of almost 300,000 square feet. Class C buildings have posted positive absorption in only one quarter since 2008.
•
Class A buildings drove absorption in the CBD during the first quarter with almost 325,000 square feet in net absorption. This was the second straight quarter in which Class A Buildings had positive absorption of over 200,000 square feet, dropping direct vacancy 50 basis points to 13.1 percent.
•
Led by the East Loop’s 177,000 square feet in net positive absorption, each submarket experienced positive absorption except for the Central Loop and North Michigan Avenue. The East Loop and South Loop were the only submarkets to experience positive absorption in its Class C buildings.
•
OUTLOOK: Recent repurposing of Class C buildings into hotels, student housing and other alternative uses suggests that demand will grow for the rest of the market as tenants upgrade their space. However, tepid hiring, shrinking workspaces and possible new developments will continue to combat new demand brought to the CBD. MBRE projects positive absorption in 2013.
DEMAND
•
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
ABSORPTION
HISTORIC ABSORPTION: SLIGHT POSITIVE ABSORPTION THUS FAR THIS YEAR 3,000,000
2,665,184
2,500,000
2,566,896
2,000,000 1,500,000 913,519
1,000,000
472,780
500,000
20,544
0 (186,015)
(500,000) (1,000,000)
(790,475)
2001
2002
2003
(720,154)
(830,377)
(844,381) (1,144,784)
(1,500,000)
(136,763)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
(509,999)
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD 2013
HISTORIC ABSORPTION BY SUBMARKET: NO LARGE SWINGS IN ACTIVITY 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) 2006 Central Loop
2007 East Loop
2008
2009
2010
North Michigan Avenue
2011
River North
2012 South Loop
YTD 2013 West Loop
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
8
Landlords struggle to find new equilibrium in stabilizing market Class A net rental rates reversed their upward trend and decreased by 2.0 percent for new deals and 6.2 percent for renewals during the first quarter. Concessions as a whole decreased by a larger amount suggesting stability in net effective rates. Average tenant improvement allowances fell by 9.2 percent for new transactions and by 25.3 percent for renewal transactions, down to $4.89 and $2.03 per square foot per lease year, respectively. Average rent abatement increased slightly, 1.0 percent to 0.88 months per lease year, for new deals, and fell 4.3 percent for renewal transactions, down to 0.79 months per lease year.
•
Class B initial rates for new transactions are up 5.6 percent and 7.0 percent for renewals. Tenant improvement allowances are mixed, decreasing for new transactions but increasing for renewals. Free rent decreased for both new and renewal, deals down almost 30.0 percent for renewals during the first quarter.
•
Initial rates for Class C were mixed, increasing 4.3 percent for new and decreasing 14.5 percent for renewal transactions. However, there remains a disconnect with respect to demand, as 263,000 square feet of occupancy was lost during the first quarter.
•
OUTLOOK: As more building owners look to lease up their buildings in order to sell in a strengthening market, landlords have decreased asking rates while offsetting with less favorable concession packages. This is especially true in the Class A and B segments. Class C buildings, many of which are being converted into hotels, student housing, and other alternative uses have seen asking rates increase as the inventory shrinks and the remaining office product experiences slightly higher demand.
FEATURES
•
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LEASE COMPARABLES
AVERAGE LEASE TERMS ON NEW AND RENEWAL DEALS NEW DEALS
AVERAGE NET INITIAL RATE
AVERAGE TENANT IMPROVEMENT
AVERAGE ABATEMENT (MONTHS)
AVERAGE TERM (YEARS)
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
2Q2012 - 1Q2013
$19.50
$15.93
$13.86
$34.21
$28.76
$25.71
6.2
6.2
5.2
7.0
6.6
6.2
2Q2011 - 1Q2012
$19.89
$15.08
$13.28
$41.56
$32.08
$22.99
6.8
6.9
5.5
7.7
7.0
5.8
2Q2010 - 1Q2011
$20.04
$15.11
$11.14
$45.39
$25.21
$22.48
8.8
6.6
7.5
8.2
6.6
6.8
2Q2009 - 1Q2010
$19.79
$15.29
$11.97
$39.52
$26.87
$17.74
8.2
6.2
4.4
7.9
6.4
5.6
2Q2008 - 1Q2009
$22.23
$17.04
$13.85
$43.91
$38.87
$32.74
5.2
4.5
4.4
8.6
7.2
7.6
2Q2007 - 1Q2008
$19.40
$15.73
$12.25
$40.56
$38.87
$24.66
4.8
4.4
4.1
7.3
6.7
6.5
2Q2006 - 1Q2007
$18.12
$13.93
$15.39
$49.24
$38.58
$15.19
6.2
5.1
1.9
9.0
7.4
4.8
2Q2005 - 1Q2006
$18.09
$12.67
$10.25
$49.16
$38.58
$26.99
7.2
5.7
4.9
8.9
7.6
7.1
2Q2004 - 1Q2005
$16.67
$12.92
$10.05
$43.12
$42.82
$23.24
7.0
7.2
3.8
10.1
8.7
6.2
2Q2003 - 1Q2004
$17.22
$12.63
$9.43
$40.92
$36.90
$15.89
4.4
5.6
3.1
8.6
8.2
6.2
2Q2002 - 1Q2003
$22.02
$15.34
$11.84
$36.32
$33.66
$27.95
1.6
3.4
1.4
8.1
9.1
6.0
2Q2001 - 1Q2002
$22.65
$16.47
$16.61
$26.88
$27.08
$24.72
1.0
0.3
1.1
7.2
8.4
7.8
2Q2000 - 1Q2001
$21.85
$15.95
$15.42
$26.89
$24.01
$31.82
0.5
0.1
0.1
7.8
6.7
6.1
RENEWAL DEALS
AVERAGE NET INITIAL RATE
AVERAGE TENANT IMPROVEMENT
AVERAGE ABATEMENT (MONTHS)
AVERAGE TERM (YEARS)
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
2Q2012 - 1Q2013
$17.85
$15.00
$12.05
$12.60
$9.63
$9.34
4.9
2.9
2.7
6.2
4.2
3.8
2Q2011 - 1Q2012
$19.03
$14.02
$14.09
$14.17
$9.26
$10.70
4.3
4.1
4.1
5.2
4.2
4.6
2Q2010 - 1Q2011
$19.79
$15.24
$10.15
$18.89
$10.56
$7.65
5.8
4.3
5.7
6.1
4.6
4.6
2Q2009 - 1Q2010
$17.91
$15.71
$11.56
$20.64
$10.92
$7.04
6.5
3.4
3.3
6.2
5.1
4.5
2Q2008 - 1Q2009
$21.72
$16.64
$15.36
$22.32
$16.11
$16.49
2.7
3.3
3.0
6.3
5.5
6.7
2Q2007 - 1Q2008
$20.16
$15.58
$13.57
$22.23
$17.28
$21.06
6.1
2.6
2.0
7.4
5.3
7.6
2Q2006 - 1Q2007
$16.07
$13.07
$16.68
$22.14
$17.67
$7.28
4.9
2.9
1.3
6.7
8.4
4.5
2Q2005 - 1Q2006
$16.12
$12.60
$14.39
$24.67
$16.20
$7.45
5.7
1.8
0.0
8.2
6.5
5.4
2Q2004 - 1Q2005
$16.44
$13.07
$10.12
$22.75
$22.50
$8.23
3.5
3.9
0.9
8.1
7.7
5.1
2Q2003 - 1Q2004
$18.54
$13.59
$10.27
$23.36
$16.99
$8.93
2.0
3.1
1.5
8.7
7.0
6.3
2Q2002 - 1Q2003
$22.24
$14.64
$14.50
$16.71
$13.88
$8.20
0.7
1.3
0.3
7.5
7.1
3.5
2Q2001 - 1Q2002
$22.53
$16.54
$12.16
$11.18
$6.05
$3.70
0.2
0.2
0.0
6.2
7.7
3.5
2Q2000 - 1Q2001
$22.43
$16.71
$15.82
$8.05
$11.19
$5.59
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.8
6.2
3.8
*Lease metrics are compared on a four-quarter basis instead of calendar year, allowing full years of data comparison.
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
9
Bullish investment market continues into 2013 Investment activity remains strong in 2013 as five buildings have traded with another five under contract to be sold.
•
The largest transaction during the quarter was Metlife’s purchase of 550 West Washington for $111 million. The purchase price equals $298 per square foot, translating to a 6.5 percent in-place capitalization rate. Beacon Capital Partners, the seller, bought the building as part of a four building portfolio in 2006 totaling $438 million. Its largest tenant, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, currently leases 66 percent of the building with a 2023 expiration date.
•
Mirae Asset Global Investments, a South Korean firm, recently agreed to purchase the 651,000 square foot building at 225 West Wacker for a reported $218 million. The core plus property is under contract at a purchase price equating to a capitalization rate of 5.5 percent, which is well below the average rate recently seen for similar downtown propertie.
•
OUTLOOK: The first quarter of 2013 saw three fewer transactions compared to the first quarter of 2012. However, with 7 buildings totaling over 4.3 million square feet being placed on the market in the first quarter alone, we expect 2013 investment volume to match, if not exceed, what was seen in 2012.
INVESTMENT SALES: MORE CLASS A OFFERINGS COMING TO MARKET Building Address
Sale Date
Size (sf)
Price
Price per sf * Class Seller
Status (Buyer or Listing Agent)
161 N Clark
New On Market
1,100,000
$348,000,000
$316
A
190 S LaSalle 125 S Clark 360 N Michigan 400 S Jefferson 216 W Jackson 300 N LaSalle (Up to 49% Stake) 875 N Michigan (office, parking garage) 225 W Randolph 122 S Michigan 555 W Monroe 20 S Clark 208 S LaSalle (Office/Retail)
New On Market New On Market New On Market New On Market New On Market
798,782 494,967 260,000 230,000 176,622
$192,000,000
$240
$45,000,000 $100,000,000 $25,000,000
$173 $435 $142
A B C A C
Shorenstein Properties & Fremont Realty Tishman Speyer Properties L.P. CBRE Global Investors Chicago Public Schools Joseph Chetrit Sterling Bay Companies Farbman Group
A
KBS REIT 2
Marketing (HFF)
311 S Wacker
New On Market
1,300,000
$320,000,000
$246
A
Marketing Marketing (Eastdil Secured) Marketing (Eastdil Secured) Marketing Marketing Marketing (Eastdil Secured) Marketing (HFF)
On Market
1,302,901
On Market
856,000
$214,000,000
$250
A
JV Deutsche Bank & NorthStar Realty
Marketing (CBRE)
On Market On Market On Market On Market
853,250 512,369 419,000 363,657
$275,000,000
$322
$150,000,000 $60,000,000
$358 $165
B C A B
Kushner Companies Ivor Braka Principal Global M & J Wilkow
Marketing (HFF) Marketing (Jones Lang LaSalle) Marketing (CBRE) Marketing (Jones Lang LaSalle)
On Market
355,411
$70,000,000
$197
C
Michael Reschke
Marketing (HFF)
625 N Michigan Ave
On Market
349,409
$83,500,000
$239
B
332 S Michigan 55 E Washignton (Floors 1-12) 540 N LaSalle 130 E Randolph 180 N Stetson (Partial Stake)
On Market
319,401
C
Lone Star Funds / Anglo Irish Bank Ivor Braka
On Market
192,000
C
Morgan Reed Group
On Market
65,100 1,192,357
C B
Joseph Lagoa
Marketing (CBRE)
BentleyForbes
Michael Silberberg & Mark Karasick / CBRE
Under Contract
976,137
$8,500,000
$131
$100,000,000
-
A
225 W Wacker
Under Contract
650,812
$218,000,000
$335
A
205 W Wacker 32 W Randolph
Under Contract Under Contract
263,650 226,666
$29,000,000 $13,250,000
$110 $58
C C
111 W Washington
1st Qtr 2013
580,000
$94,630,000
$163
C
550 W Washington
1st Qtr 2013
372,000
$111,000,000
$298
A
770 N Halsted
1st Qtr 2013
175,000
$10,900,000
$62
C
123 W Madison
1st Qtr 2013
79,039
$4,850,000
$61
C
224 N Des Plaines
1st Qtr 2013
76,900
$7,700,000
$100
C
73 W Monroe St
1st Qtr 2013
52,021
$5,575,000
$107
C
All Sales
1st Qtr 2013
1,334,960
$234,655,000
$132
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Pension Fund 205 Chicago Partners David & Barbara Kalish Harbor Group International Beacon Capital Partners Howard Ellman/River West Management Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Wells Fargo Bank (Foreclosure) F & F Realty Company
FEATURES
•
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
INVESTMENT SALES
Marketing (HFF) Marketing (Jones Lang LaSalle) Marketing (CBRE)
Mirae Asset Global Investments / JLL Undisclosed / HFF Undisclosed / CBRE Alliance Partners HSP (East Coast arm of Shidler Group) MetLife / Eastdil Secured South Street Capital Cagan Management Group Inc. South Street Capital Iconic Development
*Price per square foot - based off estimated selling price for new to market buildings
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
10
Slow pace will continue to characterize recovery The CBD performed very much in line with MBRE’s baseline forecast. Mixed results throughout the submarkets and modest net positive absorption resulted in a slight decline in vacancy.
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (sf)
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (sf)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
120,434,748 119,972,770 118,691,577 121,440,276 122,776,164 124,713,268 125,037,423 126,452,643 128,385,650 126,478,575 125,626,639 125,269,078 130,038,076 130,539,796 130,649,210 131,044,641 131,087,914 131,087,914
104,939,294 106,058,995 106,744,585 109,533,759 108,743,284 107,598,500 106,754,119 106,568,104 105,737,728 108,402,912 110,969,808 110,833,045 110,112,891 109,602,891 110,516,410 111,258,938 111,867,532 112,655,958
1997-2012 Absorption Avg:
606,481
YTD 2013 Absorption:
20,544
Direct Vacancy % 12.9% 11.6% 10.1% 9.8% 11.4% 13.7% 14.6% 15.7% 17.6% 14.3% 11.7% 11.5% 15.3% 16.0% 15.4% 15.1% 14.7% 14.1%
FEATURES
The strong correlation between the office and labor market generally means that as job growth picks up or slows down, the office market will similarly improve or deteriorate. Yet the most recent recovery in the Chicago CBD office market has not followed suit. Over the past quarter, the amount of total occupied space reached record highs despite total employment remaining 3.6 percent below its peak level. Some of this disparity can be attributed to firms having more space than their headcounts warrant, which could cause occupancy to decline if those firms decide to downsize. But the CBD has strong demand drivers, most prominently its labor force and business development efforts led by Mayor Emanuel. This has prompted several companies to expand or relocate operations downtown, offsetting occupancy losses due to downsizing. In addition, tech companies will continue to expand their presence, highlighted by Google’s 15-year, 572,000 square foot lease signed last year at the Merchandise Mart.
Year
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
FORECAST
Total projected inventory based on addition of projects currently under construction
Occupancy is forecast based on proprietary assumptions regarding the Chicago MSA’s total employment In spite of the recent relocations into the CBD, multiple change and the office industry’s historical performance which trails the overall economy. factors are working to slow the mentioned demand drivers. Firms who are decreasing space per employee requirements have turned to alternative workplace strategies such as hoteling. They have also been able to reduce their square footage upon lease expirations with the advent of cloud technology and the digitalization of archives. Chicago’s unemployment rate remains extremely high; at 11.3 percent it is well above the national average of 7.7 percent. Considering these factors, MBRE forecasts modest positive absorption over the next two years, causing direct vacancy to fall approximately 100 basis points by the end of 2014.
HISTORIC & PROJECTED VACANCY: OCCUPANCY TO INCREASE MODESTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS 135,000,000
20% 18%
130,000,000
16%
125,000,000
14% 12%
120,000,000
10% 115,000,000
8% 6%
110,000,000
4%
105,000,000
2% 0%
100,000,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (sf)
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
11
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SUBMARKET MAP
FEATURES FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
12
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
1,253,860
9.2%
12,321,234
539,988
13.2%
2,301,014
16.1%
11,962,375
386,361
18.8%
(116,136)
1,471,011
17.1%
7,156,210
31,078
17.4%
(177,939)
(177,939)
5,025,884
13.8%
31,439,818
957,427
16.4%
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) % 17.5%
CENTRAL LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Class A
13,575,094
(32,312)
(32,312)
Class B
14,263,388
(29,491)
(29,491)
Class C
8,627,220
(116,136)
Total
36,465,702
EAST LOOP
4,048,035
93,566
93,566
628,932
15.5%
3,419,103
81,437
10,559,292
76,447
76,447
2,552,349
24.2%
8,006,943
144,607
25.5%
Class C
8,375,098
6,996
6,996
1,188,745
14.2%
7,186,353
66,766
15.0%
Total
22,982,425
177,009
177,009
4,370,026
19.0%
18,612,399
292,810
20.3%
N. MICHIGAN AVE.
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
3,949,554
31,239
31,239
673,514
17.1%
3,276,040
175,795
21.5%
Class B
4,716,413
(53,942)
(53,942)
1,162,775
24.7%
3,553,638
46,254
25.6%
Class C
4,292,873
(34,652)
(34,652)
863,453
20.1%
3,429,420
69,451
21.7%
Total
12,958,840
(57,356)
(57,356)
2,699,742
20.8%
10,259,098
291,500
23.1%
RIVER NORTH
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
3,992,461
53,842
53,842
391,461
9.8%
3,601,000
5,500
9.9%
Class B
3,738,159
13,412
13,412
231,895
6.2%
3,506,263
418,887
17.4%
Class C
5,542,742
(18,335)
(18,335)
539,980
9.7%
5,002,763
162,244
12.7%
Total
13,273,362
48,919
48,919
1,163,336
8.8%
12,110,026
586,631
13.2%
SOUTH LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) % 29.0%
Class A
1,019,325
18,513
18,513
284,405
27.9%
734,920
10,830
Class C
1,155,967
6,044
6,044
277,644
24.0%
878,323
0
24.0%
Total
2,175,292
24,557
24,557
562,049
25.8%
1,613,243
10,830
26.3%
WEST LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
27,147,296
158,864
158,864
3,800,338
14.0%
23,346,958
873,004
17.2%
Class B
9,735,921
(46,916)
(46,916)
1,099,958
11.3%
8,635,963
168,637
13.0%
Class C
6,349,076
(106,593)
(106,593)
1,107,642
17.4%
5,241,434
84,804
18.8%
Total
43,232,292
5,354
5,354
6,007,938
13.9%
37,224,355
1,126,445
16.5%
TOTALS
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
53,731,764
323,712
323,712
7,032,510
13.1%
46,699,254
1,686,554
16.2%
Class B
43,013,172
(40,491)
(40,491)
7,347,991
17.1%
35,665,182
1,164,746
19.8%
Class C
34,342,977
(262,677)
(262,677)
5,448,475
15.9%
28,894,502
414,343
17.1%
Total CBD
131,087,914
20,544
20,544
19,828,976
15.1%
111,258,938
3,265,643
17.6%
FEATURES
Class A Class B
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
MARKET STATISTICS
Numbers in parentheses are negative
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
13
SUBURBAN CHICAGO EXECUTIVE SUMMARY From 2008 to 2011, Suburban Chicago lost more than six million square feet of occupancy, and its direct vacancy rate peaked at a record 23.6 percent. Demand stagnated in 2012 as occupancy remained essentially unchanged throughout the year. Vacancy is still extremely high, just 60 basis points below the recession peak, yet by outperforming the CBD for the second quarter in a year, direct vacancy has begun to decline.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
SECTION THREE
Key Indicators: • Quarterly net absorption was above 100,000 square feet for the second straight quarter, totaling a positive 330,000 square feet, causing direct vacancy to fall 20 basis points to 23.0 percent. The Northwest submarket was the best performing segment, experiencing 220,000 square feet of positive absorption. •
Occupancy grew across all building classes during the first quarter with Class B outperforming the other segments. While Suburban Class A buildings had the greatest net positive absorption, most of this can be attributed to the East-West submarket.
•
AT&T’s combined 1.4 million square feet of sublease space at its corporate campus and a smaller building in Hoffman Estates continues to constrain the sublease market. The potential for formerly single-tenant corporate campuses to enter the multi-tenant market weighs on Suburban Chicago. Motorola Mobility (Google) is also now looking to sell its former corporate campus.
•
Large deal activity continues to be quiet as the suburbs struggle to attract new users from outside the market. Many tenants have relocated within the same submarket, highlighted by Advocate Health Care relocating 140,000 square feet within the East-West submarket from Oak Brook to 3075 Highland Parkway in Downers Grove. This “musical chairs” trend, where companies lease a large block of space and leave behind another large block in the same submarket, has hindered the recovery.
•
Class A asking rental rates dropped another 4.1 percent year-over-year. The positive absorption seen in the first quarter suggests the market may be responding to the lower rates.
•
Outdated product plagues the suburbs and fuels the glut of vacant space. Allstate is considering tearing down its former headquarters building in South Barrington. However, other obsolete buildings are still listing space and driving down market economics.
•
Speculative construction is at a standstill. Construction has been limited to build-to-suit projects, such as the recently completed headquarters for Astellas Pharma US in Glenview. The Hub Group and the Big Ten recently broke ground on build-to-suit headquarters, and both plan to occupy later this year.
Direct vacancy in Suburban Chicago is 8.3 percent above lows seen in 2007 while employment is still 5.5 percent below peak. While the labor market is a key determinant of office space demand, the fact that occupancy has trailed the labor recovery suggests that other demand factors are holding back the Suburban market. Corporate relocations to the in-demand CBD, underutilized space and increasing corporate taxes remain the biggest risks to the market.
SUBURBAN VACANCY AND YEAR-TO-DATE ABSORPTION SUMMARY Direct Vacancy 1Q2013 East-West North Northwest O'Hare Suburban Chicago Total Net Absorption 1Q2013 East-West North Northwest O'Hare Suburban Chicago Total
A
Change from 4Q2012
B
Change from 4Q2012
C
Change from 4Q2012
Total
Change from 4Q2012
20.1% 22.6% 20.8% 18.1% 20.7%
-1.0% 1.0% -0.3% -0.1% -0.2%
23.7% 16.5% 32.1% 30.2% 25.3%
0.7% -1.4% -1.5% 0.0% -0.4%
25.0% 22.8% 28.9% 37.3% 27.7%
-0.7% -0.1% -1.1% 0.4% -0.5%
22.0% 20.9% 25.0% 25.0% 23.0%
-0.4% 0.2% -0.8% 0.1% -0.2%
A
B
C
Total
239,844 (156,305) 54,107 9,719 147,366
(99,158) 96,264 133,249 3,880 134,235
29,585 (2,219) 32,169 (11,686) 47,849
170,271 (62,259) 219,525 1,913 329,450 Numbers in parentheses are negative
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
14
Speculative construction is years away As has been the case for the past several quarters, no new speculative office developments were announced while new construction has been limited to a select number of build-to-suit projects. With Class A direct vacancy at 20.7 percent, there is simply not enough demand to justify new, multitenant product.
•
Astellas Pharma US occupied its new build-to-suit 440,000 square foot headquarters in Glenview in mid-2012. A large portion of their former space in Deerfield was backfilled by Mondelez International during the first quarter of 2013.
•
The Hub Group and the Big Ten Conference broke ground on their respective build-to-suit headquarters in August 2012. The Big Ten Conference’s 50,000 square foot headquarters at 5440 Park Place in Rosemont is expected to be delivered in September 2013. The Hub Group’s 130,000 square foot building located at 200 Clearwater Drive in Oak Brook is expected to be completed in November 2013.
•
The Suburban market currently has almost 26 million square feet of vacant space. This figure only accounts for competitive, multi-tenant properties. There are several corporate headquarter facilities that are vacant, including properties formerly occupied by United Airlines, Allstate and soon to be Motorola Mobility. Thus, the oversupply of available space in the market has made speculative construction unfeasible.
•
OUTLOOK: Suburban Chicago has an overabundance of vacant space. Numerous proposed developments are ready to break ground once demand is strong enough. Between historically high market vacancy and constrained financing, speculative development is not likely for the next several years.
SUPPLY
•
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
NEW DEVELOPMENT
NEW DELIVERIES PIPELINE 2013 Deliveries Building Address
Size (sf)
% Leased
Submarket
Comments
Due Date
Comments
Total - 0 Properties
Under Construction Building Address 2000 Clearwater Dr, Oak Brook
5440 Park Pl, Rosemont
Size (sf) % Pre-leased 130,000
100.0%
50,000
100.0%
November 2013
Broke ground August 2012 and expected to be completed in November 2013. Build-to-suit headquarters for the Hub Group. September 2013 Broke ground August 2012 and expected to be completed in September 2013. Build-to-suit headquarters for the Big Ten Conference.
Total - 2 Properties
Proposed Building Address
Size (sf) % Pre-leased
Due Date
Comments
Numerous multi-tenant properties, but none set to break ground
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
15
Glut in large block availability remains despite overall sublease space decreasing •
The amount of available sublease space decreased 7.0 percent compared to last quarter. Sublease availability continues to weigh heavily on the direct market for Class A space despite shedding over 200,000 square feet during the first quarter. Almost 4.0 percent of total Class A inventory is available for sublease.
•
The only new large sublease block to hit the market was at 2455 Corporate West Drive in Lisle where Claymore Securities leases the entire building. After selling the building in June 2008, Claymore Securities is now looking for subtenants to take over its 54,000 square foot space which expires in October of this year.
•
OUTLOOK: The amount of available sublease space dropped to 3.3 million square feet and is under the Suburban historical average of 3.4 million square feet for only the second time since 2007. Even so, with weak demand and no large blocks rolling over until June, sublease availability is expected to remain elevated. SUPPLY
HISTORIC YEAR-END SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY: CLASS B CONTINUES TO DECLINE
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
SUBLEASE SPACE
3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2002
2003
2004
2005
Class A
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Class B
2011
2012
YTD 2013
Class C
LARGE BLOCKS (MORE THAN 50,000 SQUARE FEET) OF SUBLEASE SPACE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE Class A Building Address
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Submarket
Sublandlord
2000 W AT&T Dr, Hoffman Estates 3 Overlook Pt, Lincolnshire 4201 Winfield Rd, Warrenville 1000 Milwaukee Ave, Glenview 3500 Lacey Rd, Downers Grove 1200 Lakeside Dr, Bannockburn 2441 Warrenville Rd, Lisle 425 N Martingale Rd, Schaumburg 2455 Corporate West Dr, Lisle 701 E 22nd St, Lombard 5202 Old Orchard Rd, Skokie
1,207,245 290,143 249,996 177,487 156,855 106,016 91,268 58,091 54,000 52,079 50,766
Negotiable Vacant Vacant 30 Days Vacant August 2013 June 2013 30 Days November 2013 120 Days Negotiable
August 2016 February 2017 Negotiable April 2017 May 2014 May 2023 January 2016 December 2015 June 2023 June 2013 June 2021
Northwest North East-West North East-West North East-West Northwest East-West East-West North
AT&T Hewitt Associates Navistar AON Warranty Group Hillshire Brands Catalyst Rx SXC Health Solutions Group Navistar Claymore Securities The Marketing Store National Lewis University
Total - 11 Spaces
2,493,946
Class B Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Submarket
Sublandlord
2001 Lakewood Blvd, Hoffman Estates 750 N Commons Dr, Aurora 850-950 Warrenville Rd, Lisle 3333 Finley Rd, Downers Grove
239,250 112,605 85,530 46,969
Negotiable 30 Days Negotiable September 2013
Negotiable September 2017 January 2019 Negotiable
Northwest East-West East-West East-West
AT&T Westell Technologies National-Louis University Acxiom Corporation
Total - 4 Spaces
484,354
Building Address
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
16
Motorola Mobility’s corporate campus hits the market •
The total number of direct, available large blocks increased to 85, and was accompanied by a 1.5 million square foot increase within those blocks. Class A saw the largest increase, adding three blocks totaling 1.4 million square feet. The largest block added during the quarter was Motorola Mobility Holdings’ former 1.1 million square foot corporate campus in Libertyville. Google acquired Motorola Mobility in May 2012 and is now marketing the space after deciding to move the headquarters and its 2,200 employees to its 572,000 square foot lease at 222 Merchandise Mart. It is the largest block of direct, available space in the Suburban market.
•
The largest block removed during the quarter was a 71,000 square foot space at 9801 West Higgins in Rosemont. The United Food and Commercial Workers Union leased 21,000 square feet on the fifth floor bringing the block under 50,000 square feet.
CLASS B Building Address
City
3890 Salem Lake Dr 2350-2360 E Devon Ave 5450 N Cumberland Ave 700 N Wood Dale Rd 300 Bauman Ct 2250 W Pinehurst Blvd 1000 E Woodfield Rd 703-709 W Algonquin Rd 4242 N Harlem Ave 544 Lakeview Pky 500 Joliet Rd 2000 S Finley Rd 1350 E Touhy Ave 333 E Butterfield Rd 3800 Golf Rd * 2850 W Golf Rd 8550 W Bryn Mawr Ave * 814 Commerce Dr 1245 Corporate Blvd 27545 Diehl Rd 999 E Touhy Ave 2850 W Golf Rd 2211 Butterfield Rd 2400 E Devon Ave 24 Blocks of Space
Long Grove Des Plaines Chicago Wood Dale Wood Dale Addison Schaumburg Arlington Heights Norridge Vernon Hills Willowbrook Lombard Des Plaines Lombard Rolling Meadows Rolling Meadows Chicago Oak Brook Aurora Warrenville Des Plaines Rolling Meadows Downers Grove Des Plaines
Size (sf)
Submarket
150,000 142,596 134,525 125,328 104,518 100,904 98,555 96,213 93,155 84,237 78,400 78,300 71,367 70,897 67,599 67,241 66,895 66,882 64,960 62,440 59,710 54,040 52,891 51,053 2,042,706
Northwest O'Hare O'Hare Northwest Northwest Northwest Northwest Northwest O'Hare North East-West East-West O'Hare East-West Northwest Northwest O'Hare East-West East-West East-West O'Hare Northwest East-West O'Hare
Size (sf)
Submarket
195,393 156,140 75,996 51,845 479,374
Northwest Northwest North East-West
CLASS C Building Address
City
1299 Algonquin Rd 3501 Algonquin Rd 2-4-6 Genesee St 1950 S Batavia Ave 4 Blocks of Space
Schaumburg Rolling Meadows Waukegan Geneva
City
600 N US Highway 45 * 21440 Lake Cook Rd 700 Oakmont Ln 2400 Cabot Dr 5550 Prairie Stone Pky 1701 Golf Rd 300 Tower Pky * 3333 Beverly Rd 2895 Greenspoint Pky 1000 Milwaukee Ave 1 Overlook Pt 200 N Martingale Rd 1707 N Randall Rd 3 Parkway Blvd N 1 Pierce Pl ** 2355 Waukegan Rd 8420 W Bryn Mawr Ave ** 8750 W Bryn Mawr Ave * 25 Tri State International * 3075 Highland Pky * 1707 N Randall Rd 200 N Martingale Rd 75 Tri State International * 535 E Diehl Rd 425 N Martingale Rd 2550 W Golf Rd 2655 Warrenville Rd 2245 Sequoia Dr * 5100 River Rd * 4343 Commerce Ct * 333 Knightsbridge Pky 3050 Highland Pky * 1200 Lakeside Dr 2135 CityGate Ln 1333 Butterfield Rd 1000 Royce Blvd ** 9500 W Bryn Mawr Ave 10255 W Higgins Rd 1 Parkview Plz * 2100 Sanders Rd 701 Warrenville Rd 4201 Lake Cook Rd 540 Lake Cook Rd 300 Park Blvd 2 Pierce Pl 1000 Milwaukee Ave 410 Warrenville Rd ** 18W140 Butterfield Rd 3000 Lakeside Dr 2100 Enterprise Ave 3800 N Wilke Rd 750 Warrenville Rd * 1222 Hamilton Pky 7400 N Caldwell Ave 701 E 22nd St * 3500 Lacey Rd 3 Westbrook Corporate Ctr * 57 Blocks of Space
Libertyville Deer Park Westmont Lisle Hoffman Estates Rolling Meadows Lincolnshire Hoffman Estates Hoffman Estates Glenview Lincolnshire Schaumburg Elgin Deerfield Itasca Bannockburn Chicago Chicago Lincolnshire Downers Grove Elgin Schaumburg Lincolnshire Naperville Schaumburg Rolling Meadows Downers Grove Aurora Schiller Park Lisle Lincolnshire Downers Grove Bannockburn Naperville Downers Grove Oakbrook Terrace Rosemont Rosemont Oakbrook Terrace Northbrook Lisle Northbrook Deerfield Itasca Itasca Glenview Lisle Oakbrook Terrace Bannockburn Geneva Arlington Heights Lisle Itasca Niles Lombard Downers Grove Westchester
Size (sf)
Submarket
1,121,186 351,425 256,767 217,718 193,601 183,506 175,545 129,000 127,941 114,144 111,327 109,716 109,076 107,625 106,766 106,495 104,164 102,498 95,771 88,576 87,076 86,310 86,036 83,792 81,862 81,222 76,691 76,126 74,988 74,855 74,728 74,319 74,119 70,537 70,251 70,000 69,701 69,695 69,069 67,681 67,233 66,000 63,298 60,939 60,904 60,843 60,434 58,085 56,416 55,584 54,867 54,415 54,150 54,000 52,079 51,601 50,895 6,413,648
North Northwest East-West East-West Northwest Northwest North Northwest Northwest North North Northwest Northwest North Northwest North O'Hare O'Hare North East-West Northwest Northwest North East-West Northwest Northwest East-West East-West O'Hare East-West North East-West North East-West East-West East-West O'Hare O'Hare East-West North East-West North North Northwest Northwest North East-West East-West North East-West Northwest East-West Northwest North East-West East-West East-West
SUPPLY
•
CLASS A Building Address
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
LARGE BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
Italicized addresses indicate space is new on the market * Block of space is for future occupancy **Block of space will be vacated in the upcoming quarter
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
17
Market vacancy declines slightly Positive absorption in three of the four submarkets caused direct vacancy to decrease 20 basis points to 23.0 percent. The total vacancy rate, which includes sublease space, dropped 20 basis points to 26.0 percent.
•
The direct vacancy in the East-West submarket decreased 40 basis points to 22.0 percent after seeing it rise for two straight quarters. The Northwest submarket was the only other segment where direct vacancy decreased, dropping 80 basis points to 25.0 percent. Direct vacancy jumped 20 basis points in the North submarket, increasing to 20.9 percent. Despite the decrease in occupancy, the North submarket has the lowest vacancy rate in the Suburban market.
•
Vacancy fell in Clas A, B and C buildings but most drastically in Class C buildings. The mixed results in Class A buildings absorption throughout the submarkets is indicative of turbulence in the market as some large tenants move to the CBD while others expand at their existing location.
•
OUTLOOK: Major corporate relocations and downsizing will continue to hamper a recovery, with vacancy rates continuing to be above 20 percent.
DEMAND
•
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
VACANCY RATES
HISTORIC YEAR-END VACANCY RATES BY SUBMARKET: NORTHWEST SHOWS STRONG IMPROVEMENT 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2002
2003
2004
East-West
2005
2006
North
2007
2008
2009
Northwest
2010
O'Hare
2011
2012 YTD 2013
Total Suburban
HISTORIC YEAR-END VACANCY RATES BY CLASS: B AND C PROPERTIES SHOW SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2002
2003 Class A
2004
2005
2006 Class B
2007
2008 Class C
2009
2010
2011
2012 YTD 2013
Total Suburban
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
18
Kraft completes headquarters sale-leaseback Kraft Foods Group finalized the sale-leaseback of its 679,000 square foot corporate campus at 3 Lakes Drive in Northfield. W.P. Carey & Co. purchased the campus from Kraft for $72.3 million or $106 per square foot. In exchange, Kraft signed a lease to remain the building’s only tenant.
•
The healthcare industry figured prominently in suburban large deals, representing almost half of the companies signing deals over 20,000 square feet. Advocate Health Care will relocate offices within the East-West submarket in May. The company leased 140,000 square feet at Highland Landmark I (3075 Highland Parkway) in Downers Grove and will vacate space at 2025 Windsor Drive in Oak Brook.
•
Patterson Medical will also relocate within the East-West submarket, leasing 53,000 square feet at Cantera Meadows West (28100 Torch Parkway) in Warrenville. They will vacate space at 1000 Remington Boulevard in Bolingbrook in May.
•
With an abundance of vacant space in the marketplace, many tenants have been able to consolidate multiple offices into one location and expand existing spaces. Loyola University Medical Center signed a 46,000 square foot renewal/expansion, more than doubling its square footage at the five-building Westbrook Corporate Center in Westchester.
•
OUTLOOK: Due to lack of growth, most new large deals involve companies who are already based in the suburbs, resulting in a “musical chairs” effect where large blocks are filled at the expense of creating new ones. For sustained occupancy increases, tenants must expand or new tenants must enter the Suburban market in order to offset companies like Sara Lee (Hillshire Brands) who are exiting the market. Unfortunately, the market has not displayed the new demand necessary for this to happen on a large enough scale to significantly affect direct vacancy.
DEMAND
•
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
LARGE DEALS
LARGE LEASE TRANSACTIONS NEW Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Kraft Advocate Health Care Patterson Medical Association Management Center Molina Healthcare Pet Factory The Alternative Source Medical Data Max Services United Food and Commercial Workers Total - 9 Deals
New Relo Relo Relo/Exp New New New Relo New
North East-West East-West O'Hare East-West North North North O'Hare
3 Lakes Dr, Northfield 3075 Highland Pkwy, Downers Grove 28100 Torch Pkwy, Warrenville 8735 W Higgins Rd, Chicago 1520 Kensington Rd, Oak Brook 1700 S Butterfield Rd., Mundelein 1700 S Butterfield Rd., Mundelein 720 Landwehr Rd., Northbrook 9801 W Higgins Rd., Rosemont
Size (sf) 679,000 139,470 53,220 47,129 37,127 30,000 30,000 24,000 20,688 1,060,634
RENEWAL/EXPANSION/SUBLEASE Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Loyola University Medical Center Ohio Public Employees Retirement System Blue Chip Marketing Total - 3 Deals
Ren/Exp Ren Exp
East-West O'Hare North
1-5 Westbrook Corporate Ctr, Westchester 8430 W Bryn Mawr, Rosemont 650 Dundee Road, Northbrook
Size (sf) 45,612 32,295 30,000 107,907
Abbreviations: Cons - Consolidation Cont - Contraction Exp - Expansion Relo - Relocation Ren - Renewal Sub - Sublease
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
19
Absorption increases despite a struggling Class A market •
Demand increased in the Suburban market as positive net absorption totaled 330,000 square feet. Class A buildings in the North submarket were the only Class A segment to post negative absorption. Class B properties experienced demand in three of the four submarkets, ending the quarter with net positive absorption of 134,000 square feet.
•
OUTLOOK: Increasing demand in a market with high vacancy and plummeting rental rates suggests that companies are beginning to take advantage of the tenants’ market. Even so, the Suburban market continues to struggle to compete with a booming CBD. Positive absorption will continue but until job growth picks up and the Suburban market finds more significant demand drivers, overall demand will remain weak.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
ABSORPTION
SUBURBAN CHICAGO ABSORPTION BY CLASS: STRONG START TO THE YEAR 1,500,000
DEMAND
1,000,000 500,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) (1,500,000) 2005
2006
2007
2008
Class A EAST-WEST
2005
2006
Class A
102,299
Class B
389,014
Class C Total
2009
2010
2011
Class B 2007
2008
366,688
542,281
484,869
(203,072)
85,269
(125,850)
576,582
725,707
2012
YTD 2013
Class C
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD 2013
(259,973)
(595,372)
(2,062)
(259,196)
(219,164)
299,247
(457,450)
239,844
67,827
(152,069)
92,876
(108,813)
(87,441)
(99,158)
(179,177)
7,017
55,114
(5,912)
230,396
(349,476)
29,585
(1,033,744)
(144,319)
202,292
(370,486)
170,271
NORTH
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD 2013
Class A
196,403
(100,049)
615,115
(240,617)
(207,914)
(312,238)
(261,008)
(365,450)
(156,305)
Class B
164,357
316,207
355,510
(60,982)
(38,575)
(319,078)
33,814
131,363
96,264
Class C
12,697
(39,440)
26,935
(2,048)
(104,195)
(40,044)
(90,151)
8,074
(2,219)
Total
373,457
176,718
997,560
(303,647)
(350,684)
(671,360)
(317,345)
(226,013)
(62,259)
NORTHWEST
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD 2013
Class A
225,865
(488,651)
10,333
(302,930)
(388,945)
(21,262)
(632,282)
379,728
54,107
Class B
(234,681)
12,266
(164,112)
(261,498)
(310,263)
(295,928)
(383,730)
(19,395)
133,249
Class C
(216,898)
(15,371)
(51,429)
(28,362)
(35,167)
(192,091)
(48,617)
41,909
32,169
Total
(225,714)
(491,756)
(205,208)
(592,790)
(734,375)
(509,280)
(1,064,629)
402,242
219,525
O'HARE
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD 2013
Class A
(55,786)
189,235
11,636
(256,325)
(134,526)
209,180
40,666
81,456
9,719
Class B
53,945
7,915
(81,167)
(51,601)
(80,925)
70,376
14,041
26,266
3,880
Class C
(204,597)
90,170
(50,022)
(35,696)
62,815
(10,855)
(14,567)
17,442
(11,686)
Total
(206,438)
287,320
(119,553)
(343,622)
(152,637)
268,701
40,140
125,164
1,913
TOTALS
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
YTD 2013
Class A
468,781
(32,777)
1,179,365
(1,059,845)
(1,326,757)
(343,484)
(553,378)
(361,716)
147,366
Class B
372,635
821,257
(92,841)
(376,143)
(688,960)
(476,802)
(487,944)
231,110
134,235
Class C
(323,529)
(90,491)
(183,329)
(153,547)
(255,724)
(235,972)
(98,221)
61,512
47,849
Total
517,887
697,989
903,195
(1,589,535)
(2,271,441)
(1,056,259)
(1,139,542)
(63,094)
329,450
Numbers in parentheses are negative
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
20
Asking rental rates continue to plummet
Over the last four quarters, gross asking rents have continued to fall in Class A and B buildings. Class A rents are down 4.1 percent, Class B rents are down 4.7 percent, and Class C net rents remained steady on a year-over-year basis.
•
Class C buildings in the O’Hare submarket were the only segment in the Suburban market to post increased asking rents, up 5.1 percent over the past 12 months. However this segment is composed of just 2.5 million square feet and is 37.1 percent vacant, so the rent increase may be a result of the low sample size.
•
Asking rental rates in the O’Hare Class A and B segments have fallen 7.4 and 7.9 percent respectively on a year-over-year basis. The decline in Class B asking rates was the largest in the overall market.
•
Class A and C average direct rates are at the lowest levels in over 15 years. Gross asking rates once again reached new historical lows in the East-West and Northwest submarkets.
•
Compared to peak levels, overall gross asking rents have fallen 15.4 percent and are at their lowest levels in MBRE’s tracked history.
•
OUTLOOK: In general, segments with larger rent decreases have experienced positive absorption this year. With an overall market direct vacancy rate of 23.1 percent, rents will have to continue to decline to reach pre-recession occupancy.
FEATURES
•
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
GROSS ASKING RENTS
AVERAGE GROSS ASKING RATES BY CLASS AND SUBMARKET Average Direct Gross Asking Rent East-West North Northwest O'Hare Suburban Chicago Total
A
Change over last year
B
Change over last year
C
Change over last year
Total
Change over last year
$21.61 $19.54 $21.40 $21.74 $21.02
-2.3% -4.8% -4.1% -7.4% -4.1%
$17.63 $19.18 $15.98 $18.09 $17.55
-4.5% -2.1% -5.2% -7.9% -4.7%
$15.18 $15.51 $12.85 $15.99 $14.95
-1.1% -5.2% -1.1% 5.1% 0.0%
$19.44 $19.07 $19.00 $19.67 $19.26
-2.8% -3.9% -4.3% -6.0% -3.9%
ASKING RATES CONTINUE TO HIT RECORD LOWS $26 $24 $22 $20 $18 $16 $14 1Q2002 1Q2003 1Q2004 1Q2005 1Q2006 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012 1Q2013 Class A
Class B
Class C
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
21
Increased investment activity highlighted by Kraft’s sale-leaseback •
Investment sales increased both in terms of square footage and sale price. The largest transaction during the first quarter was Agellan Commercial REIT purchasing the two building complex at 1000 East Warrenville in Naperville. It paid $83.3 million, $171 per square foot, to the seller, M & J Willow Ltd. for the 487,000 square foot property.
•
Saban Capital Group acquired the 240,000 square foot building at 2300 East Devon Avenue in Des Plaines for $39 million.
•
Motorola Mobility (Google) hired the Binswanger Corporation to market its former 1.1 million square foot corporate campus. The company is marketing the property to tenants 200,000 square feet or larger although a single tenant buyer is preferred.
•
OUTLOOK: Suburban Chicago has not generated the premier investor interest that characterizes the CBD. However, well-leased and well-located Class A properties as well as stabilized Class B properties continue to be in demand.
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
INVESTMENT SALES
FEATURES
INVESTMENT SALES: INVESTMENT ACTIVITY ACCELERATES
On the Market: 1st Quarter 2013 Building Address
Submarket
Size (sf)
Price
PSF *
Class Seller
Status (Listing Agent)
600 N. U.S. 45, Libertyville
North
1,136,311
-
-
B
1421-1501 W Shure Dr, Arlington Heights
Northwest
1,120,871
-
-
B
Nokia Siemens Networks B.S. On Market (CBRE)
Continental Towers Complex, 1701 W Golf Rd, Rolling Meadows
Northwest
911,000
-
-
A
CWCapital Asset Management New on Market (Colliers) LLC
Corporate 500 Center, 500-540 N Lake Cook Rd, North Deerfield
697,672
-
-
A
GE Capital
On Market (JLL)
9550 W Higgins Rd, Rosemont
O'Hare
234,314
-
-
A
GE Capital
On Market (JLL)
One Parkway North
North
252,484
-
-
A
GE Capital
On Market (JLL)
New on Market (Binswanger Corp)
Investment Sales: 1st Quarter 2013 Building Address
Submarket
Size (sf)
Price
PSF *
1000 E Warrenville Rd (2 Properties), Naperville
East-West
486,979
$83,383,500 $171
B
M & J Wilkow Ltd.
Agellan Commercial REIT
3 Lakes Dr, Northfield
North
679,000
$72,250,000 $106
B
Kraft Foods, Inc.
W.P. Carey & Co. LLC
2300 E Devon Ave, Des Plaines
O'Hare
239,331
$39,000,000 $163
B
Amcraft Construction Co., Inc. Saban Capital Group, Inc.
2707 Butterfield Rd (4 Properties), Oak Brook
East-West
312,262
$33,000,000 $106
B
Inland Real Estate Corporation
Adventus Realty Services Inc.
2800 W Higgins Rd (3 Properties), Hoffman Estates
Northwest
498,635
$23,500,000
$47
A
NewTower Trust Company
Teachers Retirement System of Illinois
475 Bond St, Lincolnshire
North
223,000
$22,600,000 $101
B
RREEF Affiliate
Cole Real Estate Investments
2349 W Lake St, 2250 W Pinehurst Blovd, Addison
East-West
217,000
$14,300,000
$66
Class Seller
A/B Multi Emplyer Property Trust
Buyer
ACG Management Co.
*Price per square foot - based off estimated selling price for new to market buildings
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
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Vacancy expected to slowly decline Suburban Chicago has seen a slow and inconsistent recovery after direct vacancy increased almost 8.0 percent during the recession. Since occupancy reached its peak in 2007, the Suburban market has experienced only five quarters of positive absorption with net absorption from 2008 through the first quarter of 2013 totaling a negative six million square feet. After declining 7.4 percent peak-to-trough, total employment has recovered only 57 percent of those jobs.
While there continues to be sluggish demand for existing space, no new speculative construction is expected for several years. Because of the constraint on new supply, MB Real Estate expects a slight vacancy decrease in 2013. The large losses from 2009 are not expected again, but neither is a rapid recovery. Slight positive absorption will occur in 2013, but will likely be due to incremental growth within existing companies.
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (sf)
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (sf)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
90,601,193 91,989,948 95,078,215 98,744,696 103,270,399 108,254,000 109,769,838 110,090,266 110,423,452 111,030,084 110,806,221 111,175,875 112,080,944 112,218,212 112,374,614 112,250,112 112,331,043 112,331,043 112,331,043
82,039,636 85,388,879 88,016,285 90,321,332 93,033,912 92,247,968 91,258,173 88,104,389 90,452,884 90,970,771 91,668,760 92,571,955 90,982,420 87,973,132 86,916,873 85,761,730 86,532,573 87,132,573 87,932,573
1996-2012 Absorption Avg:
304,268
YTD 2013 Absorption:
329,450
Direct Vacancy % 9.4% 7.2% 7.4% 8.5% 9.9% 14.8% 16.9% 20.0% 18.1% 18.1% 17.3% 16.7% 18.8% 21.6% 22.7% 23.6% 23.0% 22.4% 21.7%
FEATURES
Occupancy has slowly recovered and is now near its peak level in 2007, which bodes well for the market.Yet one quarter does not signal a sustained recovery and the Suburban market still faces stiff competition from the CBD. Lacking many of the demand drivers of the Chicago CBD, Suburban Chicago companies must find a way to expand. In addition, large sublease blocks, which have long been a hindrance to the direct market, continue to weigh on any hopes for a recovery.
Year
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
FORECAST
Total projected inventory based on addition of projects currently under construction Occupancy is forecast based on proprietary assumptions regarding the Chicago MSA’s total employment change and the office industry’s historical performance which trails the overall economy.
HISTORIC & PROJECTED VACANCY: 115,000,000
25%
110,000,000
20%
105,000,000 15%
100,000,000 95,000,000
10%
90,000,000 5%
85,000,000 80,000,000
0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (sf)
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
23
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
SUBMARKET MAP
FEATURES FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
24
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
20.1%
16,505,134
860,932
24.3%
23.7%
11,068,773
492,888
27.1%
1,289,587
25.0%
3,877,139
9,004
25.1%
8,890,355
22.0%
31,451,046
1,362,824
25.4%
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
22.6%
13,062,027
1,117,047
29.2%
16.5%
6,149,455
123,752
18.2%
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Class A
20,663,569
239,844
239,844
4,158,435
Class B
14,511,106
(99,158)
(99,158)
3,442,334
Class C
5,166,726
29,585
29,585
Total
40,341,401
170,271
170,271
NORTH
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Class A
16,867,586
(156,305)
(156,305)
3,805,559
Class B
7,368,595
96,264
96,264
1,219,140
Direct Direct Vacancy Vacancy (sf) %
Class C
2,512,716
(2,219)
(2,219)
573,574
22.8%
1,939,142
24,018
23.8%
Total
26,748,898
(62,259)
(62,259)
5,598,273
20.9%
21,150,625
1,264,817
25.7%
NORTHWEST
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
Class A
18,497,893
54,107
54,107
3,848,371
20.8%
14,649,523
369,694
22.8%
Class B
9,652,179
133,249
133,249
3,102,188
32.1%
6,549,992
131,642
33.5%
Direct Direct Vacancy Vacancy (sf) %
Class C
2,356,537
32,169
32,169
680,001
28.9%
1,676,536
21,431
29.8%
Total
30,506,609
219,525
219,525
7,630,559
25.0%
22,876,050
522,767
26.7%
O'HARE
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
Direct Direct Vacancy Vacancy (sf) %
Class A
7,869,103
9,719
9,719
1,427,596
18.1%
6,441,507
160,074
20.2%
Class B
4,333,887
3,880
3,880
1,308,606
30.2%
3,025,281
47,355
31.3%
Class C
2,531,144
(11,686)
(11,686)
943,081
37.3%
1,588,063
440
37.3%
Total
14,734,135
1,913
1,913
3,679,283
25.0%
11,054,851
207,869
26.4%
TOTALS
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
1st Quarter Absorption (sf)
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Vacancy + Sublease) %
Direct Direct Vacancy Vacancy (sf) %
Class A
63,898,152
147,366
147,366
13,239,961
20.7%
50,658,191
2,507,747
24.6%
Class B
35,865,768
134,235
134,235
9,072,267
25.3%
26,793,501
795,637
27.5%
Class C
12,567,123
47,849
47,849
3,486,243
27.7%
9,080,880
54,893
28.2%
Total Suburban
112,331,043
329,450
329,450
25,798,470
23.0%
86,532,573
3,358,277
26.0%
FEATURES
Occupancy (sf)
Direct Direct Vacancy Vacancy (sf) %
EAST-WEST
SUBURBAN CHICAGO
MARKET STATISTICS
Numbers in parentheses are negative
FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION GLOSSARY Absorption: The net change in occupied space over a given period of time. Unless otherwise noted, Net Absorption includes direct and sublease space.
Rental Rates: The annual costs of occupancy for a particular space quoted on a per square foot basis.
Asking Rent: The published rental rate for a space in a building, which may vary from the rent which is negotiated upon by the tenant and landlord.
Sales Price: The total dollar amount paid for a particular property at a particular point in time.
Central Business District: The designations of Central Business District (CBD) and Suburban refer to a particular geographic area within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) describing the level of real estate development found there. The CBD is characterized by a high density, well organized core within the largest city of a given MSA.
SF: Abbreviation for Square Feet.
Class: A classification used to describe buildings, with Class A reflecting the highest quality and Class C reflecting the lowest quality.
Submarkets: Specific geographic boundaries that serve to delineate a core group of buildings that are competitive with each other and constitute a generally accepted primary competitive set, or peer group. Submarkets are building type specific (office, industrial, retail, etc.), with distinct boundaries dependent on different factors relevant to each building type. Submarkets are non-overlapping, contiguous geographic designations having a cumulative sum that matches the boundaries of the Market they arelocated within.
Direct Vacant Space: Space that is being offered for lease directly from the landlord or owner of a building, as opposed to space being offered in a building by another tenant (or broker of a tenant) trying to sublet a space that has already been leased. Initial Rate: The contracted starting rental rate for the first term of a lease. Inventory: The square footage of buildings that have received a certificate of occupancy and are able to be occupied by tenants. Calculated by adding the Rentable Building Area (RBA) of all properties in a market or submarket. Large Block: The amount of contiguous space available in a building in terms of square footage. Contiguous spaces over 50,000 square feet are considered large by MB Real Estate. Lease Comparable: Comparables are properties with characteristics that are similar in nature. Their signing lease rates and other contracted elements are aggregated to analyze contracted market conditions as opposed to asking market conditions. Market: Geographic boundaries that serve to delineate core areas that are competitive with each other and constitute a generally accepted primary competitive set of areas. Markets are building type specific and are non-overlapping contiguous geographic designations. Markets can be further subdivided into Submarkets. Net Rental Rate: A rental rate that excludes certain expenses that a tenant could incur in occupying office space. Such expenses are expected to be paid directly by the tenant and may include janitorial costs, electricity, utilities, taxes, insurance and other related costs. Preleased Space: The amount of space in a building that has been leased prior to its construction completion date, or certificate of occupancy date. Price/SF: Calculated by dividing the price of a building (either sales price or asking sales price) by the Rentable Building Area (RBA). Rentable Building Area (RBA): The total building square footage that can be occupied by or assigned to a tenant for the purpose of determining a tenant’s rental obligation. Generally, RBA includes a percentage of common areas including all hallways, main lobbies, bathrooms, and telephone closets.
CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
SECTION FOUR
Sublease Space: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Sublease space is sometimes referred to as sublet space.
Suburban: The Suburban and Central Business District (CBD) designations refer to a particular geographic area within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Suburban is defined as including all office inventory not located in the CBD. Tenant Improvement: Those changes to property to accommodate specific needs of a tenant. TIs include installation or relocation of interior walls or partitions, carpeting or other floor covering, shelves, windows, toilets, etc. The cost of these is negotiated in the lease. Total Vacant Space: Direct plus sublease vacant space. Under Construction: The status of a building that is in the process of being developed, assembled, built or constructed. A building is considered to be under construction after it has begun construction and until it receives a certificate of occupancy. Vacancy Rate: A measurement expressed as a percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Under construction space generally is not included in vacancy calculations. Vacancy rate can be based on direct, sublease, or total vacant space. Vacant Space: Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation that may be on the space. Vacant space could be space that is either available or not available. For example, sublease space that is currently being paid for by a tenant but not occupied by that tenant, would be considered vacant space. Likewise, space that has been leased but not yet occupied because of finish work being done, would also be considered vacant space. YTD: Abbreviation for Year-to-Date. Describes statistics that are cumulative from the beginning of a calendar year through whatever time period is being studied.
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Our mission is to provide clients and investors with extraordinary real estate value and unlimited support
MB REAL ESTATE
ABOUT MB REAL ESTATE
At MB Real Estate, our corporate mission is to maximize the value of our clients’ real estate by creating timely and innovative solutions that meet their unique needs and objectives. We offer the highest level of real estate support with our team of committed, results-driven experts in asset and facilities management, leasing, tenant representation, development, project management, and investment services. Supported by dedicated accounting, marketing, human resources, and information technology teams, our unique full-service firm is an industry leader in local and national corporate real estate.
MB REAL ESTATE HEADQUARTERS 181 West Madison, Suite 4700 Chicago, Illinois 60602 phone: 312.726.1700 fax: 312.807.3853
EAST COAST REGIONAL HEADQUARTERS 335 Madison Avenue, 14th Floor New York, New York 10017 phone: 212.350.2300 fax: 212.350.2301
DEPARTMENT LEADERSHIP PATRICIA ALUISI Executive Vice President & Chief Administrative Officer/General Counsel
MARK A. BUTH Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Leasing Services
ANDREW J. DAVIDSON Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Corporate Services & Tenant Advisory
GARY A. DENENBERG Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Leasing Services
DAVID R. GRAFF Senior Vice President of Project Services
COMPANY LEADERSHIP PETER E. RICKER Chairman & CEO
JOHN T. MURPHY President
MAUREEN G. GROVE Vice President & Managing Director of Accounting Services
DANIEL J. NIKITAS Executive Vice President of Corporate Services & Tenant Advisory Services
KEVIN M. PURCELL Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
PETER J. WESTMEYER Senior Vice President & Managing Director of Investment Services
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