SECTION TITLE SECTION SUBTITLE
THIRD
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2014
R
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SECTION #
CHICAGO CBD
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FIRST QUARTER 2013 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
1
T H I R D Q UA RT E R
2014 CHICAGO
MARKET OVERVIEW
TABLE OF CONTENTS SE CT ION ONE
CHICAGO ECONOMY 01 Economic Analysis
SE CT ION T WO
CHICAGO CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
MARKET OVERVIEW
02 Chicago CBD Executive Summary SUPPLY 03 New Development 04 Sublease Space 05 Large Blocks of Direct Availability DEMAND 06 Vacancy Rates 07 Large Deals 08 Absorption FEATURES
2013 The Chicago Market Overview is published quarterly by MB Real Estate. To obtain additional copies or for further information, please contact:
09 10 11 12
Lease Comparables Investment Sales Forecast Market Statistics
SE CT ION T H RE E
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT SNAPSHOTS CBD SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Central Business District Map Central Loop East Loop North Michigan Avenue River North South Loop West Loop
SE CT ION FOUR
Alex Jin, Research Coordinator 181 West Madison Street, Suite 4700 Chicago, Illinois 60602 (312) 726-1700 www.mbres.com
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 20 Glossary 21 About MB Real Estate
CHICAGO ECONOMY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS After ticking back up 10 basis points to 6.2 percent through July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) latest report in August shows that the national unemployment rate is back on track, falling back to 6.1 percent. This national figure is level with the rate reported in last quarter’s MBRE Overview.
CHICAGO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
SECTION ONE
In that same month, the Chicago metro area saw a 0.3 percent decline in unemployment. The 15,083 fewer unemployed reported for the metro area was the largest change of any U.S. city tracked by the BLS besides New York. At 6.3 percent, the Chicago metro unemployment rate is down 2.7 percent from the same period in 2013. Nationally, the professional and business services sector added 47,000 jobs across the US in August. This takes the national total to 639,000 jobs added in professional services in the past year. Chicago itself added 3,300 jobs in the sector in August alone. In September, Crain’s Chicago Business recognized professional services as the “hottest job sector in Chicago.” Per Crain’s data, Chicago saw headcount at the Big Four accounting firms jump by as much as 13 percent in the year ending in June. Ernst & Young LLP, for example, experienced a whopping 28 percent job growth over the two years ending in June, and other professional services companies such as West Monroe Partners LLC plan to double in the next few years. Job growth numbers like these have many people bullish on the future of the Chicago economy, particularly the younger generation. According to a Charles Schwab survey conducted in September, Millenials express more optimism in areas including jobs, cost of living, and the effectiveness of local politicians. There is a general agreement, however, that much of the economic future rests on the results of the current race for governor between incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn and Republican Bruce Rauner. The candidates have fundamental differences of opinion on matters of tax, budget allocation, the solution to the pension problem, as well as infrastructure, and the gubernatorial election on November 4th will have major implications for the future of Chicago business.
Sources: MBRE Research, BLS, Crain’s Chicago Business, Charles Schwab, IDES
CHICAGO EMPLOYMENT CLIMBING SLOWLY TO PEAK Chicago MSA Employment (thousands, SA)
4,700 4.593 million
Peak: 4.569 million
4,600 4,500 4,400
4.390 million
4,300
Peak-toTrough -7.46%
4,200 Trough: 4.228 million
4,100 4,000 Jul-00
Current: 4.486 million Jan-02
Jul-03
Jan-05
Jul-06
Jan-08
Jul-09
Jan-11
Jul-12
Jan-14
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
1
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Chicago Business District (CBD), in total, experienced a positive absorption of 300,854 square feet in the third quarter. This absorption figure is commensurate to the level of growth we have seen through each of the first two quarters of 2014. Year-to-date the CBD has experienced roughly one million square feet of positive absorption. Through three quarters, the positive absorption in the CBD has already outpaced the most recent peak absorption figure in 2011 and, if current pace holds, will exceed the 2012 & 2013 figures combined.
CHICAGO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
SECTION TWO
Key Indicators: • • •
The total CBD direct vacancy rate decreased by 20 basis points and ended the quarter at 13.75 percent. Class B buildings drove the market with both Class A & C ending essentially even for the quarter. North Michigan Avenue Class A’s negative 125,672 square feet is attributable to the continued phasing in of large vacancies left by AMA’s departure and DraftFCB’s contraction in the submarket. Construction is in full swing along the Chicago River as 444 W. Lake and 150 N. Riverside both begin to take form on the west bank and the residential tower portion of the Wolf Point project is underway near 350 N. Orleans. As many as eight other projects have been marketed in the last few years; however, in lieu of a substantial anchor tenant signing on, these are highly speculative.
•
Following the record sale of 300 N. LaSalle, the investment market has remained hot. Five buildings closed deals in the third quarter for a total of $1.03 billion. Another seven properties also came to market in the quarter with inital asking prices in total of $1.9 billion.
•
While technology remains a growing subsector, this quarter has reiterated the strength of diversity in the Chicago marketplace. While tech firms Enova, Valence Health, and Uber all signed substantial new deals, the largest new lease in the third quarter belonged to Wintrust Financial consolidating into 231 S. LaSalle for 179,332 square feet. The largest renewal was the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center (NORC) which resigned and expanded at 55 E. Monroe to 118,000 square feet.
The CBD appears to be thriving as the investment market is in full swing, demand for new development continues to escalate, and leasing activity achieves new highs.
CBD VACANCY AND SECOND QUARTER ABSORPTION SUMMARY Direct Vacancy 3Q2014 Central Loop East Loop N. Michigan Ave. River North South Loop West Loop CBD Chicago Total Net Absorption 3Q2014 Central Loop East Loop N. Michigan Ave. River North South Loop West Loop CBD Chicago Total
A
Change from 2Q2014
10.4% 15.2% 24.2% 6.1% 22.9% 12.6% 12.8%
-0.3% 0.3% -0.3% -1.8% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2%
B
Change from 2Q2014
13.4% 23.0% 13.3% 11.9%
-0.4% -0.7% 0.5% -0.9%
11.7% 15.2%
-0.8% -0.5%
C
Change from 2Q2014
Total
Change from 2Q2014
13.6% 12.3% 17.2% 8.2% 21.1% 14.9% 13.3%
-0.2% -0.5% 0.5% -0.6% -0.3% 0.1% -0.2%
12.3% 17.8% 18.0% 8.7% 22.0% 12.8% 13.8%
-0.3% -0.4% 0.3% -1.0% -0.2% -0.1% -0.3%
A
B
C
Total
37,477 (7,061) (125,672) 67,746 25,620 (1,890)
78,353 85,637 (17,910) 97,361 84,319 327,760
4,460 18,837 (25,611) (17,160) (6,214) 672 (25,016)
120,290 97,412 (169,193) 147,947 (6,214) 110,611 300,854 Numbers in parentheses are negative
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
2
CONSTRUCTION BEGINS IN EARNEST ALONG THE CHICAGO RIVER •
In July, developer John O’Donnell broke ground on 150 N. Riverside which then picked up a nearly $300 million construction loan for the project in September. Construction is in full swing along the Chicago River as 444 W. Lake and 150 N. Riverside both begin to take form on the west bank and the residential tower portion of the Wolf Point project is underway to the south of 350 N. Orleans.
•
As many as eight other potential projects have been marketed in the last few years; however, in the absence of a substantial anchor tenant signing on, these are highly speculative.
2000 - 5 Properties 2001 - 2 Properties 2002 - 2 Properties 2003 - 0 Properties 2004 - 1 Property 2005 - 2 Properties 2006 - 2 Properties 2007 - 0 Properties 2008 - 2 Properties 2009 - 3 Properties 2010 - 1 Expansion 2011 - 0 Properties 2012 - 0 Properties 2013 - 0 Properties 2014 - 0 Properties
2,870,576 904,436 2,236,364 0 1,300,000 2,500,143 1,320,498 0 728,254 3,652,913 933,710 0 0 0 0
Total - 20 Properties
•
sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf
95.8% 86.9% 94.6% 0.0% 100.0% 97.4% 96.9% 0.0% 70.6% 81.4% 92.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
16,446,894 sf
UNDER CONSTRUCTION/ANNOUNCED
There are currently 14 tenants in the market seeking spaces greater than 100,000 square feet. Recent Crain’s reporting identified Deloitte LLP, Mayer Brown LLP, and Hyatt Corporation as tenants “believed to be large enough to anchor new downtown office towers to be completed between 2017 and 2020.”
150 N. Riverside 444 West Lake
% Leased
1,200,000 sf 1,073,100 sf 2,273,100 sf
Total
SUPPLY
•
% Leased (Avg)
2000 - 2014 INVENTORY ADDITIONS
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
NEW DEVELOPMENT
28.8% 41.8%
2000-2013 INVENTORY ADDITIONS Delivered (2000-2013) Delivered (2014)
16,446,894 sf 0 sf
Total
16,446,894 sf
Under Construction/Announced
2,273,100 sf
NO NEW DELIVERIES EXPECTED UNTIL 2015 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) (1,500,000) 2003
2004
2005
2006
New Construction Delivery (square feet)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Absorption (square feet)
2012
2013
2014 YTD
Direct Vacancy Rate %
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
3
SUBLEASE MARKET CONTINUES TO SHRINK •
Available total sublease space in the CBD decreased about 94,000 square feet this quarter to 2,574,056 square feet.
•
While overall sublease square footage decreases, large sublease blocks remain available. There are currently 10 large sublease blocks in excess of 50,000 square feet available in the CBD. The largest block remains AT&T’s 185,697 square foot space at 225 W. Randolph.
•
Newmark Grubb Knight Frank has begun to market the Seyfarth Shaw sublease space at 131 S. Dearborn for a January 1st, 2016 occupancy. Seyfarth Shaw is downsizing to around 200,000 square feet at Willis Tower.
•
Printing services provider R.R. Donnelley subleased Winston Strawn’s 75,000 square feet at 35 W. Wacker. Signal (formerly BrightTag) took Braintree’s 57,110 square foot sublease at 111 N. Canal.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SUBLEASE SPACE
2014 SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY SEES SLIGHT DECREASE SUPPLY
6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000
4,644,911
3,714,187
2,376,184
2,404,109
3,158,562
4,201,801
3,576,846
2,897,711
3,214,365
3,060,757
2,574,056
0
4,467,890
1,000,000
5,458,623
2,000,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 YTD
LARGE BLOCKS (MORE THAN 50,000 SQUARE FEET) OF SUBLEASE SPACE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE CLASS A Building Address
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Floor(s)
Sublandlord
131 S Dearborn St 131 S Dearborn St 550 W Jackson Blvd 131 S Dearborn St 70 W Madison St 353 N Clark St 100 N Riverside Plz
202,972 128,622 128,019 66,304 57,610 56,086 54,000
January 2016 60 Days Negotiable January 2016 30 Days Negotiable 30 Days
June 2017 October 2017 June 2017 June 2017 November 2019 October 2024 May 2023
19-24 7-8 2-6 12 & 14 27-29 35-36 7-8
Seyfarth Shaw Citadel Newedge USA Seyfarth Shaw K&L Gates Jenner & Block Hostway Corporation
Total - 7 Spaces
639,613
CLASS B Building Address
Size (sf)
Occupancy
Expiration
Floor(s)
Sublandlord
225 W Randolph 600 W Chicago Ave
185,697 117,101
Negotiable Vacant
December 2022 November 2015
22-28 2nd
AT&T Level 3 Communications
Total - 2 Spaces
302,798
Floor(s)
Tenant
3-5
AT&T
CLASS C Building Address
Size (sf)
Available
Expiration
350 W Mart Ctr
126,402
Vacant
January 2016
Total - 1 Space
126,402
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
4
CLASS A WEST LOOP LARGE BLOCKS TO COME AVAILABLE •
With 74 blocks of large space available in the CBD, the market continues to offer opportunities for companies looking to relocate. Preferred space, however, is on dwindling supply and competition is as high as it has been in years. With the thriving River North submarket at a CBD low of 8.7 percent vacancy, tenants have begun looking to establish new hot spots. The West Loop has looked like the primary beneficiary of this new trend and, given the current and future availability of block space, it would appear the submarket has the capacity for this expansion.
•
Class A West Loop buildings have 17 blocks greater than 50,000 square feet on the market.
•
MB Real Estate has identified 46 tenants actively seeking 50,000 square feet or more in the CBD, up from the 39 recognized last quarter.
CLASS B
Building Address 130 E Randolph St 600 W Chicago Ave 222 N LaSalle St 130 E Randolph St 303 E Wacker Dr 175 W Jackson Blvd 233 N Michigan Ave 303 E Wacker Dr 410 N Michigan Ave 2 N LaSalle St 401 N Michigan Ave 333 S Wabash Ave 130 E Randolph St 100 S Wacker Dr 200 W Monroe St 233 N Michigan Ave 10 S Riverside Plz 120 S LaSalle St 111 E Wacker Dr 175 W Jackson Blvd 330 N Wabash Ave 120 S LaSalle St 230 W Monroe St 303 E Wacker Dr 1 N Dearborn St 33 N LaSalle St 200 W Monroe St 222 S Riverside Plz 200 W Jackson Blvd 29 Blocks
Size (sf)
Availability
Submarket
256,362 231,294 208,234 156,667 145,014 135,510 133,639 122,560 118,144 94,452 88,696 84,000 80,147 79,485 79,452 77,642 73,624 69,519 66,136 65,930 64,890 62,557 60,182 60,049 59,239 58,935 56,238 53,162 51,512 2,893,271
Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant 11/2015 Vacant Vacant Vacant 11/2014 Vacant Vacant Vacant 06/2015 04/2016 Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant 11/2015 07/2017 01/2015 Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant 04/2016 Vacant 07/2015
East Loop River North Central Loop East Loop East Loop Central Loop East Loop East Loop North Michigan Avenue Central Loop North Michigan Avenue East Loop East Loop West Loop West Loop East Loop West Loop Central Loop East Loop Central Loop North Michigan Avenue Central Loop West Loop East Loop Central Loop Central Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop
515 N State St 200 E Randolph St 203 N LaSalle St 500 W Monroe St 227 W Monroe St 131 S Dearborn St 10 S Dearborn St 20 W Kinzie St 222 W Adams St 550 W Jackson Blvd 540 W Madison St 131 S Dearborn St 200 E Randolph St 111 S Wacker Dr 131 S Dearborn St 222 W Adams St 233 S Wacker Dr 30 S Wacker Dr 540 W Madison St 233 S Wacker Dr 440 S LaSalle St 455 N Cityfront Plaza Dr 191 N Wacker Dr 311 S Wacker Dr 540 W Madison St 131 S Dearborn St 233 S Wacker Dr 181 W Madison St 77 W Wacker Dr 233 S Wacker Dr 181 W Madison St 233 S Wacker Dr 32 Blocks
Size (sf)
Availability
Submarket
350,906 339,761 292,777 284,298 272,209 202,972 193,319 180,495 154,605 139,763 134,874 128,622 119,662 114,686 104,376 99,894 91,807 86,573 83,200 82,648 77,343 68,730 68,029 67,983 67,748 66,304 60,992 59,689 55,032 52,613 51,954 50,552 4,204,416
Vacant Vacant 10/2017 Vacant 06/2017 07/2017 Vacant 01/2016 09/2017 Negotiable Vacant Vacant Vacant 06/2015 08/2016 09/2017 Vacant Vacant 01/2015 Vacant Vacant Vacant 01/2015 12/2014 01/2015 07/2017 Vacant Vacant Vacant 01/2015 Vacant Vacant
North Michigan Avenue East Loop Central Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop Central Loop River North West Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop East Loop West Loop Central Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop North Michigan Avenue West Loop West Loop West Loop Central Loop West Loop Central Loop Central Loop West Loop Central Loop West Loop
SUPPLY
•
CLASS A Building Address
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LARGE BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
CLASS C Building Address 311 W Monroe St 401-465 E Illinois St 141 W Jackson Blvd 141 W Jackson Blvd 401 S State St 350 W Mart Ctr 2 N Riverside Plz 1-33 S State St 435-445 N Michigan Ave 1-33 S State St 350 W Mart Ctr 363 W Erie St 800 S Wells St 13 Blocks
Size (sf)
Availability
Submarket
354,017 210,000 166,483 135,045 110,898 83,729 81,062 70,107 68,158 67,678 58,514 57,405 55,000
Negotiable Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant Vacant 06/2015 Vacant Negotiable 120 Days 11/2014 Vacant Vacant
West Loop North Michigan Avenue Central Loop Central Loop East Loop River North West Loop East Loop North Michigan Avenue East Loop River North River North South Loop
1,518,096
*Future availabilities denoted by vacancy date, for example DLA Piper’s 292,777 square foot space at 203 N. LaSalle. DLA Piper will be relocating to the new development at 444 W. Lake when the building commences in 2017.
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
5
CBD VACANCY RATES CONTINUE DESCENT
•
Total direct vacancy rate in the CBD fell another 20 basis points in the third quarter. At 13.75 percent, the CBD vacancy rate is down 74 basis points since this time one year ago.
•
Class B saw a significant 19 basis point drop in vacancy this quarter spurred by positive absorption across every submarket except North Michigan Avenue. However, Class B buildings continue to hold the highest overall direct vacancy of the classes at 15.2 percent.
•
Even after a marginal rise in vacancy rate in third quarter, Class A buildings continue to set pace for the CBD at 12.8 percent vacancy.
•
Central Loop itself has improved 114 basis points from third quarter 2013, now standing at 12.33 percent direct vacancy.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
VACANCY RATES
DEMAND
HISTORIC DIRECT VACANCY : FALLING RATES CONTINUE INTO THIRD QUARTER 18% 16% 14%
14.6%
15.7%
17.6%
14.3%
11.7%
11.5%
15.3%
16.0%
15.4%
15.1%
14.5%
13.8%
8%
13.7%
10%
11.4%
12%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 YTD
HISTORIC YEAR-END DIRECT VACANCY MARKET BY CLASS : CLASS HIERARCHY REMAINS 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2001
2002
2003 Class A
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Class B
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 YTD
Class C
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
6
STRONG LEASING CONTINUED, LARGE SUBLEASES FILLED •
Wintrust Financial had the largest new deal of the quarter taking 179,332 square feet at 231 S. LaSalle in a consolidation of their two former offices at 190 S. LaSalle and 222 S. Riverside.
•
Growing technology firms Enova, Valence Health, and Uber Technologies each signed sizable new leases indicating the beginning of an escalating maturation period for the industry sector.
•
The third quarter saw multiple large sublease deals as tenants begin to take advantage of an active market and favorable terms. Centene took 109,140 square feet of the substantial United space at 77 W. Wacker, while Capital One expanded its current United sublease to include the entire 11th floor. R.R. Donnelley signed for Winston & Strawn’s space at 35 W. Wacker, while Signal will sublease from Braintree at 111 N. Canal for 57,110 square feet.
•
The National Opinoin Research Center at the University of Chicago (NORC) was the quarter’s largest renewal and expansion, going from 88,000 square feet to 118,000 at 55. E. Monroe.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LARGE DEALS
DEMAND
LARGE LEASE TRANSACTIONS NEW Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Wintrust Financial Enova Valence Health Uber Aetna Cision/Vocus Solex College Lockton Companies Silliker Paul Hastings Serendipity Labs Fragomen Entertainment Cruises Regus Nielsen InStep Software Total - 16 Deals
New New New New New New New New New New New New New New New New
Central Loop Central Loop West Loop West Loop West Loop East Loop East Loop West Loop East Loop West Loop Central Loop West Loop North Michigan Avenue East Loop West Loop West Loop
231 S. LaSalle 175 W. Jackson 540 W. Madison 111 N. Canal 333 W. Wacker 130 E. Randolph 180 N. Wabash 500 W. Monroe 130 E. Randolph 71 S. Wacker 1 S. Wacker 333 W. Wacker 455 N. Cityfront Plz 55 E. Monroe 222 W. Adams 225 W. Wacker
Size (sf) 179,332 160,240 125,000 58,539 53,824 49,464 36,200 35,000 35,000 33,249 30,000 26,912 23,340 21,000 20,444 19,000 906,544
RENEWAL/EXPANSION/SUBLEASE Tenant
Type
Submarket
Building Address
Size (sf)
NORC (HQ) Centene Charter One R.R. Donnelley Autonomy Wells Fargo Advisors GoHealth Rise Interactive MCHC Signal/BrightTag MCI/Verizon Workday Load Delivered Logistics Thomson Reuters Garrett Brands Capital One PT Financial Balyasny Asset Management
Ren/Exp Sub Ren Sub Ren/Exp Ren/Exp Sub Ren/Exp Ren Sub Ren Ren/Exp Exp Ren Ren/Exp Sub Sub Ren
East Loop Central Loop West Loop Central Loop East Loop West Loop River North West Loop West Loop West Loop East Loop Central Loop River North West Loop North Michigan Avenue Central Loop West Loop West Loop
55 E. Monroe 77 W. Wacker 71 S. Wacker 35 W. Wacker 303 E. Wacker 30 S. Wacker 219 W Superior 1 S. Wacker 222 S. Riverside 111 N. Canal 205 N. Michigan 111 W. Jackson 750 N. Orleans 311 S. Wacker 401 N. Michigan 77 W. Wacker 500 W. Madison 181 W. Madison
118,000 109,140 67,400 53,821 48,008 45,723 42,000 34,000 30,000 27,000 25,492 25,055 24,000 22,871 22,174 21,828 21,768 21,207
Total - 18 Deals
759,487 Abbreviations: Cons - Consolidation Cont - Contraction Exp - Expansion Relo - Relocation Ren - Renewal Sub - Sublease
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
7
YTD POSTIVE ABSORPTION AT 137% OF 2013 YEAR END TOTAL
•
The 300,854 square feet of positive absorption in the CBD this quarter is consistent with the escalating recovery of recent quarters. Absorption through just the first three quarters of 2014 has already well exceeded that of the 2013 year end total.
•
Year-to-date, the Central Loop has seen 47 percent of total positive absorption for the CBD. West Loop has seen the second-most absorption with 21 percent of the total.
•
OUTLOOK: If this positive momentum continues, absorption in the CBD during 2014 will likely eclipse that of the last two years combined. Given the increasing volume of large new deals and expansions we’ve tracked recently, positive absorption should escalate in the fourth quarter. The delivery of the two new West Loop towers in early 2017 should be the first major events to produce a significant shift in the market dynamic.
DEMAND
HISTORIC ABSORPTION: ON TREND FOR 2014 YTD 3,000,000
2,665,184
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
ABSORPTION
2,566,896
2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000
993,553
913,519
1,000,000
720,110 472,780
500,000 0
(1,000,000) (1,500,000)
(136,763)
(186,015)
(500,000)
(509,999) (844,381) (1,144,784)
2002
2003
(720,154)
(830,377)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 YTD
HISTORIC ABSORPTION BY SUBMARKET: POSITIVE YEAR-TO-DATE ABSORPTION 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 (500,000) (1,000,000) 2007 Central Loop
2008 East Loop
2009
2010
2011
North Michigan Avenue
2012
River North
2013 South Loop
2014 YTD West Loop
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
8
HIGH RATES AND LONGER TERMS
•
The average across all classes for initial net rent has increased each year since 2009 from $15.44 to $17.67.
•
Landlords are offering an average of $47 per square foot per year in tenant improvement allowance across the CBD for new deals.
•
Class A deals on average are signed with longer terms than Class B & C deals. The average term is around eight years.
•
Renewals have seen a similar rise in intial rent prices. Class A is at a 10-year high of $23.84 per square foot.
•
Abatement for both new and renewal deals is still down from peak, but gradually seeing a natural rise with higher rates and longer terms. FEATURES
AVERAGE LEASE TERMS ON NEW AND RENEWAL DEALS AVERAGE TENANT IMPROVEMENT
AVERAGE NET INITIAL RATE
NEW DEALS
AVERAGE ABATEMENT (MONTHS)
AVERAGE TERM (YEARS)
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
$18.83
$18.99
$15.20
$47.74
$49.72
$44.05
7.0
5.8
4.8
8.0
7.1
5.5
3Q2012 - 2Q2013
$19.66
$16.11
$15.10
$37.49
$31.62
$23.54
6.1
5.7
4.2
7.3
6.2
4.8
3Q2011 - 2Q2012
$19.81
$15.80
$13.73
$35.04
$31.82
$23.72
6.3
6.4
5.6
7.3
6.8
6.1
3Q2010 - 2Q2011
$20.23
$14.67
$12.45
$46.58
$27.88
$28.28
8.1
6.9
4.9
8.1
6.9
5.9
3Q2009 - 2Q2010
$19.63
$15.55
$11.13
$41.01
$27.07
$18.45
8.6
6.9
6.0
8.0
6.6
5.8
3Q2008 - 2Q2009
$20.83
$15.88
$12.75
$40.38
$34.24
$32.57
6.8
4.9
4.8
8.5
7.1
7.6
3Q2007 - 2Q2008
$21.58
$16.97
$14.51
$44.08
$37.90
$26.53
4.4
4.2
3.8
8.1
6.8
7.1
3Q2006 - 2Q2007
$18.94
$14.78
$13.19
$47.06
$38.64
$19.97
5.4
5.5
3.0
8.2
7.2
5.5
3Q2005 - 2Q2006
$17.57
$13.12
$14.54
$44.87
$37.85
$17.76
6.9
4.6
2.4
8.1
6.9
5.1
3Q2004 - 2Q2005
$17.40
$12.57
$9.92
$48.03
$41.35
$28.30
7.5
6.8
4.6
9.9
8.2
7.1
3Q2003 - 2Q2004
$16.79
$12.95
$9.30
$40.64
$41.90
$15.19
5.3
6.7
3.4
9.6
8.8
5.7
3Q2002 - 2Q2003
$19.75
$14.16
$10.99
$38.42
$35.19
$22.63
2.6
4.5
2.1
8.3
8.8
6.5
3Q2001 - 2Q2002
$22.45
$15.66
$14.67
$30.31
$27.74
$27.52
1.6
1.2
1.8
7.4
8.3
6.1
3Q2013 - 2Q2014
RENEWAL DEALS
*
AVERAGE TENANT IMPROVEMENT
AVERAGE NET INITIAL RATE
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
LEASE COMPARABLES
AVERAGE ABATEMENT (MONTHS)
AVERAGE TERM (YEARS)
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
A
B
C
3Q2013 - 2Q2014
$23.84
$18.64
$15.53
$38.47
$17.50
$18.47
4.9
5.0
4.7
6.8
5.6
4.5
3Q2012 - 2Q2013
$19.66
$15.77
$12.48
$16.03
$11.39
$7.02
4.7
4.3
3.0
6.1
5.2
4.0
3Q2011 - 2Q2012
$19.11
$14.81
$13.10
$11.80
$10.70
$13.27
4.2
3.0
2.3
5.0
4.2
4.1
3Q2010 - 2Q2011
$18.83
$14.17
$12.12
$19.57
$9.81
$8.86
5.4
4.5
4.4
6.4
4.5
4.6
3Q2009 - 2Q2010
$19.95
$15.75
$10.61
$22.48
$9.24
$6.66
7.3
4.3
6.1
6.3
4.8
5.1
3Q2008 - 2Q2009
$19.09
$16.84
$14.24
$19.20
$16.51
$14.80
3.7
3.2
2.8
5.8
5.2
5.3
3Q2007 - 2Q2008
$21.98
$15.77
$15.17
$18.72
$16.43
$11.64
2.2
2.9
2.0
6.7
5.5
6.7
3Q2006 - 2Q2007
$17.44
$14.22
$16.24
$23.91
$17.27
$16.06
6.4
1.7
1.5
7.4
7.1
6.4
3Q2005 - 2Q2006
$16.23
$13.24
$15.40
$23.83
$17.58
$9.71
4.9
3.3
1.2
7.7
6.6
5.4
3Q2004 - 2Q2005
$16.69
$12.46
$12.04
$26.27
$20.46
$4.44
5.3
2.9
0.8
8.2
8.1
4.6
3Q2003 - 2Q2004
$17.74
$13.28
$9.80
$22.44
$19.18
$11.10
2.4
3.5
1.3
8.8
7.1
6.4
3Q2002 - 2Q2003
$20.05
$14.25
$10.29
$17.08
$12.32
$5.59
1.2
2.5
0.7
6.7
7.0
5.2
3Q2001 - 2Q2002
$20.80
$15.60
$13.32
$16.71
$12.53
$8.69
0.4
0.6
0.1
8.1
6.9
4.7
**
*Lease metrics are compared on a four-quarter basis instead of calendar year, allowing full years of data comparison. **MBRE utilizes actual lease data in the calculation of these averages. As such, we are at some times limited by our sample size.
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
9
RECORD SALE SIGNALS HEALTHY INVESTMENT MARKET
•
Following the record-breaking sale of 300 N. LaSalle last quarter, the third quarter has been even more active.
•
Five buildings totalling around 3.8 million square feet were sold for over $1 billion. Three more are under contract for an additional one million square feet, while seven other properties were brought to market in the third quarter.
•
OUTLOOK: While no single building acquistion came close to the $850,000,000 sale of 300 N. LaSalle, together the third quarter was nearly commensurate to the second in total sales. This cyclically hot investment sales market looks to benefit even more from the usual heightened post-summer activity. With a total of 13 buildings currently on market, and escalating international investment interest in peripheral markets, Chicago owners can expect a healthy return in the coming few quarters.
Building Address
Sale Date
New On Market 1 S. State (76% Stake) (3Q14) New On Market 550 W. Adams (3Q14) New On Market 515 N. State (3Q14) New On Market 55 E. Monroe (3Q14) New On Market 353 N. Clark (3Q14) New On Market 111 W. Illinois (3Q14) New On Market 10 S. LaSalle (3Q14) On Market 300 S. Riverside Plz (2Q14) On Market 205 W. Randolph St (2Q14) On Market 225 W. Randolph (4Q12) Under Contract 311 W. Monroe (3Q14) Under Contract 213 W. Institute Pl (3Q14) Under Contract 125 S. Clark (3Q14) Under Contract 222 S. Riverside (3Q14) 55 W. Monroe 3rd Qtr 2014 221 N. LaSalle 3rd Qtr 2014
Size (sf)
Price
Price per sf * Class
Seller
942,330
$250,000,000
$265.30
C
Winthrop Realty / Elad Canada Inc.
483,677
$200,000,000
$413.50
A
SEB Investment GmbH
622,487
$155,000,000
$249.00
A
1,601,744
$330,000,000
$206.03
A
1,173,645
$685,000,000
$583.65
A
515 N. State Street Chicago (Pension Fund) Glenstar Properties / Walton Street Capital Tishman Speyer Properties L.P.
Status (Buyer or Listing Agent) Marketing (HFF) Marketing (HFF) Marketing (Eastdil) Marketing (JLL) Marketing (JLL)
141,957
$70,978,500
$500.00
A
Alter Group
Marketing (EnTrust)
735,000
$180,000,000
$244.90
A
Feil Organization
Marketing
1,100,000
$290,000,000
$263.64
B
Joseph Mizrachi, Partners
Marketing (Eastdil)
Farbman Group/ LuburtAdler Partners
Marketing (JLL)
199,000
$25,000,000
$125.63
C
853,250
$275,000,000
$322.30
B
Kushner Companies
Marketing (HFF)
387,790
$58,000,000
$149.57
C
Golub & Co. / Archon Group
Glenstar/Prudential
148,949
$27,000,000
$181.27
C
Goldman Sachs
Sterling Bay Cos./DRA Advisors LLC Blue Star Properties Inc.
494,967
$30,000,000
$60.61
B
Chicago Public Schools
1,205,232
$310,000,000
$257.21
B
TIER REIT
Deutsche Bank
800,569 360,000
$244,000,000 $52,000,000
$304.78 $144.44
B B
Hearn Co. Cape Horn Group LLC
John Hancock Real Estate Sterling Bay Cos.
101 N. Wacker
3rd Qtr 2014
614,161
$210,000,000
$341.93
A
Hines Interests
LaSalle Investment Management
70 W. Madison 208 S. LaSalle
3rd Qtr 2014 3rd Qtr 2014
1,420,021 355,411
$375,000,000 $65,000,000
$264.08 $182.89
A B
230 W. Monroe
3rd Qtr 2014
623,564
$122,000,000
$195.65
B
Gaw/Korean Teachers Estein & Associates Lincoln Property Co./PIMCO
Hearn Co. Prime Group Accesso Partners (formerly Beacon Investment Properties)
300 N. LaSalle
2nd Qtr 2014
1,300,000
$850,000,000
$653.85
A
KBS Realty Advisors LLC
Irvine Co.
30 N. LaSalle
2nd Qtr 2014
983,000
$237,500,000
$241.61
B
203 N. LaSalle 541 N. Fairbanks 200 S. Michigan
2nd Qtr 2014 2nd Qtr 2014 1st Qtr 2014
581,100 541,637 359,560
$111,500,000 $79,500,000 $69,000,000
$191.88 $146.78 $191.90
B B B
311 S. Wacker
1st Qtr 2014
1,300,000
$302,400,000
$232.62
A
200 W. Monroe
1st Qtr 2014
535,911
$100,000,000
$186.60
B
180 N. LaSalle
1st Qtr 2014
770,191
$126,000,000
$163.60
B
$2,943,900,000.00
$245.90
YTD Sales
10,545,125
FEATURES
INVESTMENT SALES: MAJOR SALES CONTINUE
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
INVESTMENT SALES
Tishman Speyer AmTrust Properties L.P. M&J Wilkow/HCI Sumitomo Golub & Co. Northwestern Hospital Equus Capital Partners The Shidler Group Shorenstein Properties & Zeller Realty Group & Cindat Realty (China) Fremont Realty Beacon Investments & Clal Farbman Group/ LuburtAdler Partners Insurance (Israel) Berkley Properties LLC Beacon Capital Partners (Michael Silberberg)
*Price per square foot - based off estimated selling price for new to market buildings
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
10
ALL SIGNS POINT UP The CBD direct vacancy rate continues to drop, significant deals continue to be signed, and the sales market continues to thrive through 2014.
Year
These commercial developments at 444 W. Lake and 150 N. Riverside as well as the swelling nearby residential market and plentiful access to transit, promise to be yet another boon to an intesifying West Loop submarket. As the primary beneficiary of a tightening supply in the popular River North submarket, the West Loop appears to be the next area of expansion for the CBD. MBRE forecasts an escalation in absorption figures, particularly in Central and West Loop submarkets to close out the year. Recovery has followed a relatively linear course throughout 2014, and these incremental improvements should be expected to continue through the next few quarters based on strong recent leasing activity, and a pool of large active tenants with lease expirations in the next few years.
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (sf)
120,434,748 119,972,770 118,691,577 121,440,276 122,776,164 124,713,268 125,037,423 126,452,643 128,385,650 126,478,575 125,626,639 125,269,078 130,038,076 130,539,796 130,649,210 131,044,641 131,021,405 130,946,085 130,946,085
104,939,294 106,058,995 106,744,585 109,533,759 108,743,284 107,598,500 106,754,119 106,568,104 105,737,728 108,402,912 110,969,808 110,833,045 110,112,891 109,602,891 110,516,410 111,238,394 111,964,734 112,949,537 113,445,055
2004-2013 Absorption Avg:
495,518
2014 YTD Absorption:
993,553
Direct Vacancy % 12.9% 11.6% 10.1% 9.8% 11.4% 13.7% 14.6% 15.7% 17.6% 14.3% 11.7% 11.5% 15.3% 16.0% 15.4% 15.1% 14.5% 13.8% 13.4%
FEATURES
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014 2015
Barring major disruption, the market looks to follow this trajectory until at least the beginning of 2017 when Chicago’s newest trophy towers are delivered in the West Loop.
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (sf)
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
FORECAST
Total projected inventory based on addition of projects currently under construction Occupancy is forecast based on proprietary assumptions regarding the Chicago MSA’s total employment change and the office industry’s historical performance which trails the overall economy.
As discussed in the economic overview, however, the gubernatorial election in November could have sweeping implications on Chicago business, and could effect the competitive landscape of the CBD. Optimistically, a critical eye on state governance in the coming election will prompt further transparency and reassure wary investors and C-Suite decision makers on the stability and reliability of the Chicago market. Overall, recent positive outlook on the commercial real estate market has been affirmed throughout 2014 year-to-date and we can be confident in the continued growth of the downtown market for the near future.
HISTORIC & PROJECTED VACANCY: STRONG GROWTH IN OCCUPANCY OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS 20%
135,000,000
18%
130,000,000
16%
125,000,000
14% 12%
120,000,000
10% 115,000,000
8% 6%
110,000,000
4%
105,000,000 100,000,000
2% 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Total Historic and Forecasted Inventory (sf)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total Historic & Forecasted Occupancy (sf)
2013
YTD 2014
2015
0%
Direct Vacancy %
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
11
CENTRAL LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
13,588,884
47,804
37,477
1,412,846
10.4%
12,176,038
162,936
11.6%
Class B
14,382,127
274,132
78,353
1,929,898
13.4%
12,452,229
316,137
15.6%
Class C
8,590,696
142,259
4,460
1,164,327
13.6%
7,426,369
75,467
14.4%
Total
36,561,707
464,196
120,290
4,507,071
12.3%
32,054,637
554,540
13.8%
EAST LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
4,070,818
27,337
(7,061)
617,700
15.2%
3,453,118
32,315
16.0%
Class B
10,660,128
151,263
85,637
2,446,124
23.0%
8,214,004
161,185
24.5%
8,201,782
(195)
18,837
1,010,047
12.3%
7,198,878
46,795
12.9%
Total
22,932,728
178,406
97,412
4,073,871
17.8%
18,866,001
240,295
18.8%
N. MICHIGAN AVE.
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
3,996,324
(266,336)
(125,672)
965,134
24.2%
3,031,190
62,102
25.7%
Class B
4,706,128
259,642
(17,910)
626,475
13.3%
4,079,653
34,775
14.1%
Class C
3,978,058
(11,282)
(25,611)
684,903
17.2%
3,293,155
30,968
18.0%
Total
12,680,511
(17,975)
(169,193)
2,276,512
18.0%
10,403,999
127,845
19.0%
RIVER NORTH
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
3,974,245
161,475
67,746
243,349
6.1%
3,730,896
92,923
8.5%
Class B
4,026,464
(37,793)
97,361
479,563
11.9%
3,546,902
266,107
18.5%
Class C
5,342,204
(1,634)
(17,160)
437,501
8.2%
4,904,703
203,657
12.0%
Total
13,342,913
122,048
147,947
1,160,413
8.7%
12,182,501
562,687
12.9%
SOUTH LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
1,019,325
45,645
0
233,385
22.9%
785,940
0
22.9%
Class C
1,082,283
(12,045)
(6,214)
227,862
21.1%
854,421
9,786
22.0%
Total
2,101,608
33,600
(6,214)
461,247
22.0%
1,640,361
9,786
22.4%
WEST LOOP
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
27,266,965
218,615
25,620
3,446,901
12.6%
23,820,064
655,447
15.1%
Class B
9,774,434
(64,275)
84,319
1,138,919
11.7%
8,635,515
259,447
14.3%
Class C
6,285,219
58,938
672
938,759
14.9%
5,346,460
164,009
17.6%
Total
43,326,618
213,279
110,611
5,524,579
12.8%
37,802,039
1,078,903
15.2%
TOTALS
RBA (sf)
YTD Absorption (sf)
3rd Quarter Absorption (sf)
Direct Vacancy (sf)
Direct Vacancy %
Occupancy (sf)
Sublease Vacancy (sf)
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease) %
Class A
53,916,561
234,541
(1,890)
6,919,315
12.8%
46,997,246
1,005,723
14.7%
Class B
43,549,282
582,970
327,760
6,620,978
15.2%
36,928,304
1,037,651
17.6%
Class C
33,480,242
176,043
(25,016)
4,463,398
13.3%
29,023,987
530,682
14.9%
Total CBD
130,946,085
993,553
300,854
18,003,691
13.8%
112,949,537
2,574,056
15.7%
FEATURES
Class C
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
MARKET STATISTICS
Numbers in parentheses are negative
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
12
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SUBMARKET MAP
FEATURES THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
13
STRONGEST YTD ABSORPTION OF ANY SUBMARKET The Central Loop experienced its third consecutive quarter of positive absorption totalling 464,916 square feet year-to-date. Vacancy fell another 30 basis points to 12.33 percent all together while each class saw a decrease during the quarter.
LARGEST BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
Building Address
Size (sf)
Availability
Building Class
203 N LaSalle St
292,777
10/2017
A
222 N LaSalle St
208,234
Vacant
B
202,972
07/2017
A
10 S Dearborn St
193,319
Vacant
A
141 W Jackson Blvd
166,483
Vacant
C
175 W Jackson Blvd
135,510
11/2015
B
141 W Jackson Blvd
135,045
Vacant
C
Wintrust Financial signed the largest new deal of the quarter in the Central Loop where it will consolidate its offices at 190 S. LaSalle and 222 S. Riverside into one headquarters at 231 S. LaSalle for 179,332 square feet.
131 S Dearborn St
128,622
Vacant
A
131 S Dearborn St
104,376
08/2016
A
2 N LaSalle St
94,452
11/2014
B
440 S LaSalle St
77,343
Vacant
A
120 S LaSalle St
69,519
Vacant
B
131 S Dearborn St
66,304
07/2017
A
175 W Jackson Blvd
65,930
11/2015
B
120 S LaSalle St
62,557
01/2015
B
181 W Madison St
59,689
Vacant
A
1 N Dearborn St
59,239
Vacant
B
33 N LaSalle St
58,935
Vacant
B
77 W Wacker Dr
55,032
Vacant
A
181 W Madison St
51,954
Vacant
A
Technology firm Enova also signed a significant lease in the submarket in third quarter, taking 160,240 square feet at 175 W. Jackson. Centene signed for 109,140 square feet of United Airlines’ sublease space at 77 W. Wacker and R.R. Donnelley took 53,821 square feet from Winston & Strawn at 35 W. Wacker. The Central Loop’s boundaries are the Chicago River (North), Wells Street (West), State Street (East), and Van Buren Street (South).
CENTRAL LOOP SUMMARY Inventory (square feet)
A
B
C
Total
13,588,884
14,382,127
8,590,696
36,561,707
Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
47,804
274,132
142,259
464,196
Direct Vacancy Rate
10.4%
13.4%
13.6%
12.3%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
11.6%
15.6%
14.4%
13.8%
SUPPLY SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
131 S Dearborn St
Some notable events for the submarket include the move-in of Ion Trading at 200 N. LaSalle for 24,302 square feet and SIM Partners at 30 N. LaSalle for 14,500 square feet.
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
CENTRAL LOOP
Numbers in parantheses are negative
CENTRAL LOOP SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8%
11.4%
12.7%
13.6%
13.8%
13.2%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
12.3%
11.8%
2003
13.7%
15.2%
0%
17.5%
2%
15.2%
4%
14.7%
6%
2013 2014 YTD
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
14 2
DIRECT VACANCY RATE HOLDS THIS QUARTER The East Loop had a positive third quarter with total absorption of 97,412 square feet.
LARGEST BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY Availability
200 E Randolph St
339,761
Vacant
A
130 E Randolph St
256,362
Vacant
B
130 E Randolph St
156,667
Vacant
B
The lease commencements of First Services Residential and XPO Logistics as well as the expansion of National Tax Search at 303 E. Wacker contributed 37,759 square feet to the positive absorption in Class B.
303 E Wacker Dr
145,014
Vacant
B
The renewal and expansion of the National Opinion Research Center at University of Chicago at 55 E. Monroe for a total of 118,000 square feet was the largest non-new deal signed in third quarter.
333 S Wabash Ave
84,000
Vacant
B
130 E Randolph St
80,147
Vacant
B
The East Loop is bordered by the Chicago River (North), State Street (West), Lake Shore Drive (East), and Van Buren Street (South). It is inhabited mostly by advertising and media firms and corporate tenants.
EAST LOOP SUMMARY Inventory (square feet)
Building Class
233 N Michigan Ave
133,639
Vacant
B
303 E Wacker Dr
122,560
Vacant
B
200 E Randolph St
119,662
Vacant
A
401 S State St
110,898
Vacant
C
233 N Michigan Ave
77,642
Vacant
B
1-33 S State St
70,107
Vacant
C
1-33 S State St
67,678
120 Days
C
111 E Wacker Dr
66,136
Vacant
B
303 E Wacker Dr
60,049
Vacant
B
A
B
C
Total
4,070,818
10,660,128
8,201,782
22,932,728
Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
27,337
151,263
(195)
178,406
Direct Vacancy Rate
15.2%
23.0%
12.3%
17.8%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
16.0%
24.5%
12.9%
18.8%
SUPPLY SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
Size (sf)
Class B properties made up the bulk of this absorption though they also hold the highest direct vacancy rate of the classes at 23 percent.
Building Address
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
EAST LOOP
Numbers in parantheses are negative
EAST LOOP SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 25% 20% 15%
14.2%
12.1%
16.3%
20.2%
19.3%
19.7%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
17.8%
19.1%
2003
18.6%
22.4%
0%
18.4%
5%
17.2%
10%
2013 2014 YTD
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
15 3
LARGE VACANCIES STILL AFFECT THE MARKET
The North Michigan Avenue submarket saw the only significant negative absorption in the CBD in third quarter at negative 169,193 square feet. A significant portion of this negative absorption can be attributed to the continued factoring of DraftFCB and American Medical Association vacancies at 101 East Erie and 515 North State respectively. The DraftFCB large block space at 101 E. Erie is listed as unavailable and under contract pending a long discussed hotel conversion, though the building is still currently multi-tenant.
LARGEST BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
Building Address
Size (sf)
Availability
Building Class
515 N State St
350,906
Vacant
A
401-465 E Illinois St
210,000
Vacant
C
410 N Michigan Ave
118,144
Vacant
B
401 N Michigan Ave
88,696
Vacant
B
455 N Cityfront Plaza Dr
68,730
Vacant
A
435-445 N Michigan Ave
68,158
Negotiable
C
330 N Wabash Ave
64,890
07/2017
B
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE
The AMA space at 515 N. State remains one of the largest blocks of available space in the CBD.
The North Michigan Avenue submarket is home to retailers, hotels, restaurants, entertainment venues, advertising and marketing agencies, and the largest Northwestern Memorial Hospital campus. Its borders include Division Street (North), State Street (West), Lake Michigan (East), and the Chicago River (South).
NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE SUMMARY
A
B
C
Total
Inventory (square feet)
3,996,324
4,706,128
3,978,058
12,680,511
Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
(266,336)
259,642
(11,282)
(17,975)
Direct Vacancy Rate
24.2%
13.3%
17.2%
18.0%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
25.7%
14.1%
18.0%
19.0%
SUPPLY SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
Garrett Brands renewed and expanded at 401 N. Michigan for 22,174 square feet in third quarter. Entertainment Cruises signed the largest new deal tracked in the submarket for 23,340 square feet at 455 N. Cityfront Plz.
Numbers in parantheses are negative
NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 25% 20% 15%
11.8%
11.4%
16.7%
18.2%
19.5%
20.5%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
18.0%
14.0%
2003
19.2%
14.0%
0%
12.7%
5%
10.8%
10%
2013 2014 YTD
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
16 4
SUBMARKET BECOMING RESTRICTIVELY COMPACT The River North submarket continues to have the lowest direct vacancy rates in the city. Following this quarter of substantial positive absorption in both class A & B, the vacancy rate has fallen to its lowest level on record.
LARGEST BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
Building Address
At just 8.7 percent direct vacancy, the popular submarket is nearing capacity, and we are beginning to see companies look beyond the desirable loft space of River North into adapting more traditional space in the Central and West Loop to fit contemporary work strategies and styles.
Size (sf)
Availability
Building Class
600 W Chicago Ave
231,294
Vacant
20 W Kinzie St
180,495
01/2016
B A
350 W Mart Ctr
83,729
Vacant
C
350 W Mart Ctr
58,514
11/2014
C
363 W Erie St
57,405
Vacant
C
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
RIVER NORTH
In third quarter, digital advertising firm Rocket Fuel Inc. moved into their space at 350 N. Orleans for 44,328 square feet.
The borders of the River North submarket are defined as Division Street (North), Racine Avenue (West), State Street (East), Fulton Street, and the Chicago River (South). Historically it has been home to small, older buildings that cater to furniture galleries and small businesses but it has recently become a hub for technology and trading firms.
RIVER NORTH SUMMARY
A
B
C
Total
3,974,245
4,026,464
5,342,204
13,342,913
161,475
(37,793)
(1,634)
122,048
Direct Vacancy Rate
6.1%
11.9%
8.2%
8.7%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
8.5%
18.5%
12.0%
12.9%
Inventory (square feet) Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
SUPPLY SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
Perhaps as an affirmation of how tight the submarket has become, there were no new deals larger than 20,000 square feet tracked in River North for third quarter. However, GoHealth Inc. subleased 42,000 square feet at 219 W. Superior St. from Schawk Inc., and the ‘Inc. 500’ third-party logistics company Load Delivered Logitistics added 24,000 square feet to its existing space at 750 N. Orleans.
Numbers in parantheses are negative
RIVER NORTH SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 25% 20% 15%
10.6%
9.2%
15.8%
13.6%
11.7%
9.1%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
8.7%
12.6%
2003
9.1%
14.5%
0%
19.3%
5%
11.9%
10%
2013 2014 YTD
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
17 5
QUIET QUARTER IN THE SMALLEST SUBMARKET The South Loop is by far the smallest submarket in the CBD with only two million square feet of Class A and C office space. Third quarter saw marginal negative absorption based on the phasing of multiple building removals, and building area changes.
LARGEST BLOCK OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
Building Address
Size (sf)
Availability
800 S Wells St
55,000
Vacant
Building Class C
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
SOUTH LOOP
The majority of the South Loop is comprised of condominiums and student housing. Currently there are no office buildings under construction in the submarket. However, Mayor Rahm Emanuel hopes for a 62-acre parcel of land called Riverside Park to be developed. General Mediterranean Holding SA has owned the land since 2011 and has done nothing with it. He hopes a new ordinance will allow city officials to negotiate a purchase from Mediterranean Holding and eventually get it into the hands of a developer.
SOUTH LOOP SUMMARY Inventory (square feet)
A
C
Total
1,019,325
1,082,283
2,101,608
Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
45,645
(12,045)
33,600
Direct Vacancy Rate
22.9%
21.1%
22.0%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
22.9%
22.0%
22.4%
SUPPLY SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
The boundaries of the South Loop include Van Buren Street (North), I-90/I-94 (West), Lake Shore Drive (East), and 16th Street (South). The South Loop is populated primarily with education, small businesses, and converted residential properties.
Numbers in parantheses are negative
SOUTH LOOP SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 30% 25% 20% 15%
14.5%
14.5%
12.9%
18.6%
23.0%
27.3%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
22.0%
12.3%
2003
24.9%
16.3%
0%
19.1%
5%
20.5%
10%
2013 2014 YTD
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
18 6
TWO CONSECUTIVE QUARTERS OF SIGNIFICANT ABSORPTION The West Loop was active in third quarter ending with 110,611 square feet of absorption in total. A large portion of this absorption was in Class B where BMO Harris took two floors in their move to 200 W. Adams, and multiple smaller deals such as Springleaf Financial at 100 S. Wacker, Whitaker Kinne Group and Harmer Associates at 150 S. Wacker, and Discovery Services at 300 S. Wacker took effect.
Signal took 27,000 square feet of Braintree’s space at 111 N. Canal. Digital advertising upstart Rise Interactive also renewed and expanded at 1 S. Wacker where shared office firm Serendipity Labs is set to open a 30,000 square foot co-working space. The West Loop’s borders are defined as the Chicago River (North), I-94/I-90 (West), Wells Street (East), and Van Buren Street (South).
WEST LOOP SUMMARY
Size (sf)
Availability
Building Class
311 W Monroe St
354,017
Negotiable
C
500 W Monroe St
284,298
Vacant
A
227 W Monroe St
272,209
06/2017
A
222 W Adams St
154,605
09/2017
A
550 W Jackson Blvd
139,763
Negotiable
A
540 W Madison St
134,874
Vacant
A
111 S Wacker Dr
114,686
06/2015
A
222 W Adams St
99,894
09/2017
A
233 S Wacker Dr
91,807
Vacant
A
30 S Wacker Dr
86,573
Vacant
A
540 W Madison St
83,200
01/2015
A
233 S Wacker Dr
82,648
Vacant
A
2 N Riverside Plz
81,062
06/2015
C
100 S Wacker Dr
79,485
06/2015
B
200 W Monroe St
79,452
04/2016
B
10 S Riverside Plz
73,624
Vacant
B
191 N Wacker Dr
68,029
01/2015
A
311 S Wacker Dr
67,983
12/2014
A
540 W Madison St
67,748
01/2015
A
233 S Wacker Dr
60,992
Vacant
A
230 W Monroe St
60,182
Vacant
B
200 W Monroe St
56,238
04/2016
B
222 S Riverside Plz
53,162
Vacant
B
233 S Wacker Dr
52,613
01/2015
A
200 W Jackson Blvd
51,512
07/2015
B
233 S Wacker Dr
50,552
Vacant
A
A
B
C
Total
27,266,965
9,774,434
6,285,219
43,326,618
218,615
(64,275)
58,938
213,279
Direct Vacancy Rate
12.6%
11.7%
14.9%
12.8%
Total Vacancy Rate (Direct + Sublease)
15.1%
14.3%
17.6%
15.2%
Inventory (square feet) Year to Date Absorption (square feet)
SUPPLY SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
Healthcare technology firm Valence Health signed the largest new lease of the quarter taking 125,000 square feet at 540 W. Madison. Uber Technologies and Aetna also signed deals larger than 50,000 square feet at 111 N. Canal and 333 W. Wacker respectively.
LARGEST BLOCKS OF DIRECT AVAILABILITY
Building Address
CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
WEST LOOP
Numbers in parantheses are negative
WEST LOOP SUBMARKET HISTORICAL DIRECT VACANCY 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8%
11.8%
16.6%
15.8%
14.2%
13.9%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
12.8%
10.2%
2003
13.1%
11.5%
0%
17.3%
2%
14.4%
4%
14.6%
6%
2013 2014 YTD
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | CHICAGO SUBMARKET SNAPSHOTS
19 7
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION GLOSSARY Absorption: The net change in occupied space over a given period of time. Unless otherwise noted, Net Absorption includes direct and sublease space. Asking Rent: The published rental rate for a space in a building, which may vary from the rent which is negotiated upon by the tenant and landlord. Central Business District: The designations of Central Business District (CBD) and Suburban refer to a particular geographic area within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) describing the level of real estate development found there. The CBD is characterized by a high density, well organized core within the largest city of a given MSA. Class: A classification used to describe buildings, with Class A reflecting the highest quality and Class C reflecting the lowest quality. Direct Vacant Space: Space that is being offered for lease directly from the landlord or owner of a building, as opposed to space being offered in a building by another tenant (or broker of a tenant) trying to sublet a space that has already been leased. Initial Rate: The contracted starting rental rate for the first term of a lease. Inventory: The square footage of buildings that have received a certificate of occupancy and are able to be occupied by tenants. Calculated by adding the Rentable Building Area (RBA) of all properties in a market or submarket. Large Block: The amount of contiguous space available in a building in terms of square footage. Contiguous spaces over 50,000 square feet are considered large by MB Real Estate. Lease Comparable: Comparables are properties with characteristics that are similar in nature. Their signing lease rates and other contracted elements are aggregated to analyze contracted market conditions as opposed to asking market conditions. Market: Geographic boundaries that serve to delineate core areas that are competitive with each other and constitute a generally accepted primary competitive set of areas. Markets are building type specific and are non-overlapping contiguous geographic designations. Markets can be further subdivided into Submarkets. Net Rental Rate: A rental rate that excludes certain expenses that a tenant could incur in occupying office space. Such expenses are expected to be paid directly by the tenant and may include janitorial costs, electricity, utilities, taxes, insurance and other related costs. Preleased Space: The amount of space in a building that has been leased prior to its construction completion date, or certificate of
occupancy date. Price/SF: Calculated by dividing the price of a building (either sales price or asking sales price) by the Rentable Building Area (RBA).
CHICAGO MARKET OVERVIEW
SECTION THREE
Rentable Building Area (RBA): The total building square footage that can be occupied by or assigned to a tenant for the purpose of determining a tenant’s rental obligation. Generally, RBA includes a percentage of common areas including all hallways, main lobbies, bathrooms, and telephone closets. Rental Rates: The annual costs of occupancy for a particular space quoted on a per square foot basis. Sales Price: The total dollar amount paid for a particular property at a particular point in time. SF: Abbreviation for Square Feet. Sublease Space: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Sublease space is sometimes referred to as sublet space. Submarkets: Specific geographic boundaries that serve to delineate a core group of buildings that are competitive with each other and constitute a generally accepted primary competitive set, or peer group. Submarkets are building type specific (office, industrial, retail, etc.), with distinct boundaries dependent on different factors relevant to each building type. Submarkets are non-overlapping, contiguous geographic designations having a cumulative sum that matches the boundaries of the Market they arelocated within. Suburban: The Suburban and Central Business District (CBD) designations refer to a particular geographic area within a metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Suburban is defined as including all office inventory not located in the CBD. Tenant Improvement: Those changes to property to accommodate specific needs of a tenant. TIs include installation or relocation of interior walls or partitions, carpeting or other floor covering, shelves, windows, toilets, etc. The cost of these is negotiated in the lease. Total Vacant Space: Direct plus sublease vacant space. Under Construction: The status of a building that is in the process of being developed, assembled, built or constructed. A building is considered to be under construction after it has begun construction and until it receives a certificate of occupancy. Vacancy Rate: A measurement expressed as a percentage of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory. Under construction space generally is not included in vacancy calculations. Vacancy rate can be based on direct, sublease, or total vacant space.
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | MB REAL ESTATE
20
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MB REAL ESTATE
ABOUT MB REAL ESTATE
At MB Real Estate, our corporate mission is to maximize the value of our clients’ real estate by creating timely and innovative solutions that meet their unique needs and objectives. We offer the highest level of real estate support with our team of committed, results-driven experts in asset and facilities management, leasing, tenant representation, development, project management, and investment services. Supported by dedicated accounting, marketing, human resources, and information technology teams, our unique full-service firm is an industry leader in local and national corporate real estate.
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COMPANY LEADERSHIP PETER E. RICKER Chairman & CEO
JOHN T. MURPHY President
DEPARTMENT LEADERSHIP PATRICIA ALUISI
Executive Vice President & Chief Administrative Officer/General Counsel
MARK A. BUTH
Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Leasing Services
ANDREW J. DAVIDSON
Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Corporate Services & Tenant Advisory
GARY A. DENENBERG
Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Leasing Services
DAVID R. GRAFF
Senior Vice President of Project Services
CRAIG G. WALCZYK
Senior Vice President/Chief Accounting Officer & Managing Director
KEVIN M. PURCELL
Executive Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
PETER J. WESTMEYER
Executive Vice President & Managing Director of Investment Services & MBRE Healthcare Group
THIRD QUARTER 2014 | MB REAL ESTATE
21