Federal finances
GTM – U.S.
The 2017 federal budget
Federal budget surplus/deficit
CBO Baseline forecast, USD trillions $4.0
Economy
$3.5 $3.0
% of GDP, 1990 – 2027, 2017 CBO Baseline
Total spending: $4.0tn
-12%
Other: $510bn (13%)
-10%
Borrowing: $693bn (17%)
Net int.: $269bn (7%) Other: $267bn (7%)
Non-defense disc.: $615bn (15%)
$2.5
2017: -3.6%
-8%
-6%
0% 2%
Corp.: $310bn (8%)
Social Security: $939bn (23%)
$1.0
Medicare & Medicaid: $1,086bn (27%)
4% '90
'95
'00
'05
'10
'15
'20
'25
Federal net debt (accumulated deficits)
Income: $1,574bn (39%)
% of GDP, 1940 – 2027, 2017 CBO Baseline, end of fiscal year 120%
$0.0 Total government spending
100%
Sources of financing
CBO’s Baseline assumptions
2017: 76.7%
80%
2017
'18-'19
'20-'21
'22-'27
Real GDP growth
2.1%
2.0%
1.5%
1.9%
10-year Treasury
2.3%
2.9%
3.5%
3.7%
Headline inflation (CPI)
2.2%
2.2%
2.4%
2.4%
Unemployment
4.5%
4.2%
4.8%
4.9%
2027: 91.2%
CBO Forecast
60% 40% 20% '40
'48
'56
'64
'72
'80
'88
Source: CBO, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Top and bottom right) BEA, Treasury Department. 2017 Federal Budget is based on the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) June 2017 Baseline Budget Forecast. Other spending includes, but is not limited to, health insurance subsidies, income security and federal civilian and military retirement. Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct. 1 through Sep. 30). Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of August 31, 2017.
23
2027: -5.2%
-2%
Social insurance: $1,164bn (29%)
$2.0
$0.5
CBO Forecast
-4%
Defense: $589bn (15%)
$1.5
| 23
'96
'04
'12
'20