WW-JanFeb 2022 issue.qxp_Pages-12-40-JanFeb WPD 06/01/2022 12:17 Page 4
VIEWPOINT
Thomas Francis
Are we edging towards war with Russia?
T
he recent build-up of large and unusual concentrations of Russian forces close to Ukraine’s borders, the support given by Russia to Belarus’s tactic of using migrants to destabilise the European Union, and the firing of an anti-satellite weapon in space, has given serious concern to the United States, European Union and NATO. Although the provocation or these aggressive actions by Russia are below the threshold of war, they have forced NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, to caution Moscow against any further actions, following warnings by US officials that Russia could be preparing to a launch a winter offensive in Ukraine - in another attempt to ‘rehash’ their 2014 invasion of the country.
In November 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told the international press that Russia had amassed nearly 100,000 soldiers near Ukraine’s border. Furthermore, videos and satellite images uploaded to social media have shown tanks, artillery and short-range ballistic missiles on the move in the border regions of Ukraine and Belarus since late October 2021. Some of the weaponry was moved to these regions early in 2021 during a large-scale buildup causing alarm bells to ring in the west. But new photos of military hardware being transported by rail have been spotted in southern Russia and from as far away as Russia’s Urals region, as well as on the Crimean Peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. “We have to be clear-eyed,” said Stoltenberg in a press conference held in November 2021. “We need to be realistic about the challenges we face. And what we see is a significant, large Russian military buildup.” The Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy. (Photo Ukrainian Navy)
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Warship World January/February 2022
Some analysts believe that the actions of Moscow are all part of a deliberate and dangerous test of western unity, endorsed or even masterminded, by Russian President Vladimir Putin. While Stoltenberg said he didn’t want to speculate about the intentions of the Russian president he called the situation “dangerous” and said it would allow Russia to launch offensive operations at short notice.
But the biggest warning about Moscow’s actions came from the outgoing head of the UK’s armed forces, Gen Sir Nick Carter, who said, “that the military will have to be ready for war with Russia after recent tensions in eastern Europe.” Carter gave a series of interviews before his departure as chief of the defence staff at the end of November 2021 (with Adm Sir Tony Radakin taking over as head of the armed forces) in which he said he distinctly hoped there would not be a war with Russia and he did not believe the country wanted a physical war, but NATO “would have to be ready.” This would add to the belief that Moscow already thinks that it is at war with the UK and its allies, according to former MI6 officer Christopher Steele. So where would the United Kingdom stand in all of this? First of all, back in 2015, the then UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, following a meeting of EU foreign ministers, said that the UK would not supply lethal weapons to Ukraine. France, Germany, the Czech Republic, Denmark and even China confirmed that their countries would not supply lethal weapons to Ukraine after the Russian 2014 attempted invasion, although, at that point, the United States was considering this possibility which raised concerns in Moscow. Fast forward 6 years and we see the UK Government reversing the decision made in 2015 and is in talks to sell weapons to Ukraine amid fears of the growing threat from Russia.
Having missed out on a contract placed by the Greek Government to the French Naval Group for three frigates (plus an optional fourth), the UK Government is eager to provide the items on Ukraine’s shopping list including two decommissioned Sandown-class minehunters, the joint production of eight new missile ships and a frigate, the development of two naval bases, as well as the supply of surface-to-surface Brimstone missiles that can be used by sea and air forces to hit ‘swarms’ of targets simultaneously (the RAF deployed Brimstone missiles against ISIS, as they can hit small, fast-moving enemies). In order to progress on the efforts to support Ukraine’s naval development the UK government has made available loans worth up to USD 2.29 billion to cover the procurement. Eager to build a new and enlarged navy fleet over the next 10-15 years, Ukrainian President Zelensky, announced implementation of these plans will be in three stages and will require a huge investment programme for the Ukrainian Navy. “Until 2035 we plan to complete the construction of a large fleet. In reality we will see the first stage being completed in 2024, the second stage until 2030, while the third will be completed by 2035,” said Zelensky. Although not a NATO member, Ukraine is increasing the presence of its own military fleet and supporting allies from NATO countries in the Black and Azov Seas. “The issue of unblocking the Black Sea and Azov coasts is part of the de-occupation of Crimea,” said Zelensky. “This is not only a question of Sea Breeze exercises; it is also constant work and cooperation with the United States and the countries of the European Union.We also have several agreements with Turkey and the UK.” The annexation of Crimea by Russia led to the loss of most of Ukraine’s military fleet, in particular six corvettes and the only submarine in the Navy. In addition, around 75% of the Ukrainian military who served in Crimea left their posts or joined the Russian military, including the commander of the Navy.At present, the Ukrainian Navy has a lone Soviet-era Krivak III-class frigate, the 3,510 tonnes
