Viewpoint - Are we edging towards war with Russia?

Are we edging towards war with Russia?

The recent build-up of large and unusual concentrations of Russian forces close to Ukraine ’ s borders, the support given by Russia to Belarus ’ s tactic of using migrants to destabilise the European Union, and the firing of an anti-satellite weapon in space, has given serious concern to the United States,European Union and NATO.Although the provocation or these aggressive actions by Russia are below the threshold of war, they have forced NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, to caution Moscow against any further actions, following warnings by US officials that Russia could be preparing to a launch a winter offensive in Ukraine - in another attempt to ‘ rehash’ their 2014 invasion of the country.

In November 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told the international press that Russia had amassed nearly 100,000 soldiers near Ukraine ’ s border. Furthermore, videos and satellite images uploaded to social media have shown tanks,artillery and short-range ballistic missiles on the move in the border regions of Ukraine and Belarus since late October 2021. Some of the weaponry was moved to these regions early in 2021 during a large-scale buildup causing alarm bells to ring in the west.But new photos of military hardware being transported by rail have been spotted in southern Russia and from as far away as Russia ’ s Urals region,as well as on the Crimean Peninsula,which was annexed by Russia in 2014.

“We have to be clear-eyed, ” said Stoltenberg in a press conference held in November 2021. “We need to be realistic about the challenges we face.And what we see is a significant, large Russian military buildup. ” Some analysts believe that the actions of Moscow are all part of a deliberate and dangerous test of western unity, endorsed or even masterminded, by Russian PresidentVladimir Putin.While Stoltenberg said he didn ’t want to speculate about the intentions of the Russian president he called the situation “dangerous ” and said it would allow Russia to launch offensive operations at short notice.

But the biggest warning about Moscow ’ s actions came from the outgoing head of the UK’ s armed forces, Gen Sir Nick Carter, who said, “that the military will have to be ready for war with Russia after recent tensions in eastern Europe. ” Carter gave a series of interviews before his departure as chief of the defence staff at the end of November 2021 (with Adm Sir Tony Radakin taking over as head of the armed forces) in which he said he distinctly hoped there would not be a war with Russia and he did not believe the country wanted a physical war, but NATO “ would have to be ready. ” This would add to the belief that Moscow already thinks that it is at war with the UK and its allies, according to former MI6 officer Christopher Steele.

So where would the United Kingdom stand in all of this? First of all, back in 2015, the then UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, following a meeting of EU foreign ministers, said that the UK would not supply lethal weapons to Ukraine. France,Germany,the Czech Republic,Denmark and even China confirmed that their countries would not supply lethal weapons to Ukraine after the Russian 2014 attempted invasion, although, at that point, the United States was considering this possibility which raised concerns in Moscow.

Fast forward 6 years and we see the UK Government reversing the decision made in 2015 and is in talks to sell weapons to Ukraine amid fears of the growing threat from Russia. Having missed out on a contract placed by the Greek Government to the French Naval Group for three frigates (plus an optional fourth), the UK Government is eager to provide the items on Ukraine ’ s shopping list including two decommissioned Sandown-class minehunters, the joint production of eight new missile ships and a frigate,the development of two naval bases, as well as the supply of surface-to-surface Brimstone missiles that can be used by sea and air forces to hit ‘ swarms ’ of targets simultaneously (the RAF deployed Brimstone missiles against ISIS, as they can hit small, fast-moving enemies). In order to progress on the efforts to support Ukraine ’ s naval development the UK government has made available loans worth up to USD 2.29 billion to cover the procurement.

Eager to build a new and enlarged navy fleet over the next 10-15 years, Ukrainian President Zelensky, announced implementation of these plans will be in three stages and will require a huge investment programme for the Ukrainian Navy.

“Until 2035 we plan to complete the construction of a large fleet. In reality we will see the first stage being completed in 2024, the second stage until 2030, while the third will be completed by 2035, ” said Zelensky.

Although not a NATO member, Ukraine is increasing the presence of its own military fleet and supporting allies from NATO countries in the Black and Azov Seas. “The issue of unblocking the Black Sea and Azov coasts is part of the de-occupation of Crimea, ” said Zelensky. “This is not only a question of Sea Breeze exercises; it is also constant work and cooperation with the United States and the countries of the European Union.We also have several agreements with Turkey and the UK. ”

The annexation of Crimea by Russia led to the loss of most of Ukraine ’ s military fleet, in particular six corvettes and the only submarine in the Navy. In addition, around 75% of the Ukrainian military who served in Crimea left their posts or joined the Russian military, including the commander of the Navy.At present, the Ukrainian Navy has a lone Soviet-era Krivak III-class frigate, the 3,510 tonnes

The Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaydachniy. (Photo Ukrainian Navy)

displacement Hetman Sahaydachniy. This ship serves as the Ukrainian Navy ’ s flagship, but the core of the country ’ s naval combat capability comes from 10 patrol boats,across five different classes, all of which have displacements under 300 tonnes and the vast majority of which displace less than 170 tonnes. Six of the 10 patrol boats in the Ukrainian Navy are of the Gurza-Ms Class and are the most numerous combat vessels in service.The main armament on each of these gunboats consists of two BM-5M.01 Katran-M weapon systems, which have a 30mm automatic cannon, anti-tank guided missiles, a 30mm automatic grenade launcher, and a 7.62mm machine gun.

It is obvious that the Ukrainian Navy still lacks the kind of capability to actively deter or challenge the Russian Navy ’ s Black Sea Fleet, which would be its most likely immediate naval opponent.The Black Sea Fleet has some 50 surface vessels, including a cruiser, a destroyer, and a number of frigates,as well as six submarines.

Therefore it is no surprise that Ukraine is fully aware that it will be impossible to build its own fleet able to withstand the Russian Black Sea Fleet within the next decade, but feels a continuous presence at sea “to ensure national interests ” is necessary. In order to do this, the Ukrainian Government and the Ministry of Defence started developing shipyards for the construction of warships, along with small submarines, and support ships. In addition, preparations for the construction of naval bases are ongoing.The first of such a base will be built in the city of Berdyansk, a port city in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast Province in south-east Ukraine, which is in the northern extension of the Black Sea.So far,the Ukrainian Government has received guarantees of support for these projects from the UK and the EU. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence is also anticipating the delivery of 16 MkVI patrol boats, as well as various weapons and associated equipment,in early 2022 by the US Navy.The US State Department signed off on the deal,which is valued at approximately USD 600 million. The complete package includes 32 MSI Seahawk A2 remote-controlled gun systems,two per boat, as well as a Mk 44 Bushmaster II 30mm automatic cannon for each of those mounts, along with eight spares, for a total of 40 guns. Each MkVI would also come with an Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system, a sensor turret with visible and infrared video cameras, and a Long Range Acoustic Device (LRAD), the latter of which can be used to hail or signal other ships,as well as act as a non-lethal weapon to deter boarders.

These boats are designed to patrol riverine and littoral waters and could be a valuable addition to the relatively small Ukrainian Navy, which is primarily focused on patrolling the country ’ s coastlines on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. A similar transfer was done in 2019 for a total of five decommisioned US Coast Guard (USCG) Island-class patrol vessels.The first pair,Slavyansk (ex-Drummond) and Starobilsk (ex-Cushing),were commissioned into the Ukrainian Navy in 2019. They are used for maritime security operations in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. In preparation to operate the vessels, their Ukrainian crew completed six weeks of training by the USCG. Two other vessels,renamed Sumy (ex-Ocracoke) and Fastiv (ex-Washington), were also gifted to Ukraine under Washington ’ s Excess Defense Articles (EDA) programme. It was scheduled that at the end of 2021 all five Island-class patrol vessels would be delivered to the Ukrainian Navy.These patrol vessels have an overall length of 33.5m and a 6.4m beam. They have a fully loaded displacement of 171 tonnes, and a range of 3,928 nautical miles at a cruising speed of 10 knots.According to Ukrainian Defence Minister Andriy Taran, the use of small patrol boats will see the creation of a “ mosquito ” fleet of small warships in the country, that will be equipped with some modern weapons including anti-ship missiles. “While Ukraine currently does not have real weapons that can stop the attack from the sea, such a situation may change, as Kiev intends to receive several small ships of the “ mosquito ” fleet no later than next year (2022), ” saidTaran. In the meantime, some naval analysts believe Ukraine may face serious difficulties implementing the plans, as the country does not have the experience and capability needed for the construction of complex warships.

“Kiev has no resources to create a full-fledged fleet,which would see ships of all different ranks and classes, including submarines, ” said Ivan Konovalov,a well-known Russian military analyst. “Ukraine used to have separate Soviet militaryindustrial enterprises, but these are in complete decline. For example, the Black Sea shipyard in Nikolaev was declared bankrupt. Ukraine cannot build ships from scratch by itself. ” Konovalov recalls that the Ukrainian Navy now has the only important warship - the Hetman Sahaydachniy frigate,the modernisation of which is ongoing according an announcement made by President Zelensky in the autumn of 2021.

In addition, Kiev ’ s hopes to create a fleet with the help of Western partners are also under question, as most of the weapons and ships which are supplied to the country by the UK and the US are old and are seriously outdated, including the boats of the “ mosquito ” fleet. At the time of writing, increased fear of war might be looming for the Ukraine but perhaps the real battle the Ukraine and the rest of Europe will face over the next couple of months is the threat from Russian president Putin to shut down the vital gas supply from Russia.