The Model: Simulating the Unknown by McKenna Cole

The Model

Simulating the Unknown

McKenna Cole

Advisor: Chris Reed Thesis Prep Document, Fall 2012 Harvard University Graduate School of Design

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McKenna Cole

Canadian National Archives, Yukon Gold Rush

Abstract

01 Abstract Alaska is now what the American West once was. With a richness of natural resources, mineral deposits and an abundance of land, mining and oil corporations are beginning to turn their attention towards this frontier. As mining corporations grow in size and capital, the mining technology and operations are similarly becoming more advanced and powerful. Both lo- cally and regionally, project proposals such as the Pebble Mine Project in Bristol Bay call into question the long-term stability of the region socially, economically, and environmentally. The Pebble Limited Partner- ship has plans to start mining operations by 2020 and in its projected 50 year lifespan will construct one of the largest surface mine and tailings dams in the world. Associated infrastructure projects will also allow for dramatic increases in industrialization and population size. This thesis will explore how predictive modeling, scenario building, and simulation can be integrated through the simultaneous use of a variety of modeling software. Moving beyond a linear predictive model, a gradual, feedback- based model will emerge in order to encourage the development of a new, robust ecology that will be enhanced through both the operation and closure of the Pebble Mine. Central to this project is the idea of designing without data - spatial data available currently will be reorganized around a new network of parameters and potential events in order to present an alternative design methodology for predictive modeling and simulation.

McKenna Cole

Erin McKittrick, AK Trekking. 2005.

Statement

02 Thesis Statement “Because the city invariably exhausts its surrounding land it must, if it is to survive, spread further afield. The ever-expanding city must trade what it has in surplus for what it doesn’t. Collectively, cities thus form a network of interdependence and antagonism, a web that now covers the whole planet. In order to survive, the city has literally had to go to the ends of the earth. The city has become the world.” -- Richard Weller, Boomtown 2050

McKenna Cole

INTRODUCTION As urban centers grow in population, demand for resources increase while land available for cultivation and extraction become harder to find. This creates the demand for importing resources from distant and oftentimes remote areas. These remote areas of potential future resource extraction are prone to experiencing a population boom. Just like other gold rushes that have been seen in North America, the shelf life of an area of resource extraction can be extremely limited. The modern American landscape continues to thrive upon the mineral extraction processes begun several centuries ago. The spoils of mineral extraction processes and the remains of the associated mining towns serve as a reminder of the fragility of the landscape. The collective memory of the American West events such as the California Gold Rush makes it seem as though mining is an old or out-dated industry. But with great advances in technology and increases in capital and continuous and constant extraction, this is no longer the case. Multi-national companies are actively seeking surface claims to mineral deposits and are engaging in a highly technical and scientific industry. While industries and resources are globalizing, the impacts of mineral extraction also occur on a very small and local scale. Dramatic increases in population and infrastructure are the immediate and most visible responses. Without appropriate planning and testing, however, the environmental repercussions can be severe. With the technological advancements and the increases in both demand for products as well as the capital of corporations, mining landscapes are beginning to take on a much larger scale. While environmental effects of past industrial and mining operations have been observed and studied, these new mining operations extend into a realm of uncertainty; uncertainty in terms of the scale and the effects socially, environmentally, politically, etc. on the landscape.

Statement

The timescale of these technologically advanced industrial landscapes projects is an additional obstacle in being able to come to a clear understanding of what the potential effects will be on the landscape. A strength of landscape architects has been their ability to deal well with complex ecological systems. However, as landscapes begin to be embedded with more and more uncertainty, ecologically, socially, politically, etc., a shift in the formulation of a new type of design methodology needs to occur. This thesis aims to articulate a new kind of design methodology that utilizes scenario building and modeling in order to allow for a clear discussion of these new landscapes of uncertainty. Site, in this case, will come secondary to design methodology. However, for the purpose of this thesis, Bristol Bay in Alaska was selected as a site to formulate this new methodology for because of the large amounts of urbanization and industrialization that are expected to occur within the next fifty years.

Erin McKittrick, AK Trekking. 2005.

McKenna Cole

ALASKA AS SITE Alaska has a long history of exploration and colonization based on resources and mineral deposits. In comparison to most of North America, Alaska is still considered a frontier in regards to the levels of settlement and urbanization. Historically, Juneau, Nome, and Fairbanks, among other cities were founded initially as mining towns, drawing upon the natural resources as the primary drivers for infrastructure, employment, government revenue, and settlement patterns. Geologically, Alaska has diverse deposits of mineral commodities including gold, copper, placer platinum, silver, and many other deposits. Although there has been a recently renewed effort in the exploration of the mineral deposits across the state, much is still unknown about its full potential. As a resource to the rest of the United States as well as the world, Alaska is unique in that it offers an abundance of prospective land, a state-sponsored geological and geophysical mapping effort, and various exploration incentives. Federal, state, and native lands have more than 190 million acres of land that are open for mineral related activities. In order to encourage development and settlement in regards to available resources, the state of Alaska has a policy in place that allows land to be used to its optimal capacity while being able to assert that the functioning of industry aligns itself with the publicâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s interest.1 PEBBLE MINE AS SITE The Bristol Bay region in southwest Alaska will be forced to cope with increases in both population and industrial activity if a newly proposed mining project, the Pebble Mine, is approved. Containing the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s projected largest deposit of gold as well as extensive amounts of copper and molybdenum, the mine will be expected to be in full production for 50-80 years, starting as soon as 2020. During this time an anticipated 2000 workers will be required for the operation of the mine, not including family members or additional people working in the service industries. Necessary infrastructure such as transmission lines, hundreds of miles of roads, a port, and an oil refinery will be constructed, allowing nearby mining corporations to take advantage of said infrastructure and begin to operate. This new access to infrastructure will cause an increase in population and industrialization to take place regionally throughout the Bristol Bay area and not only around, Iliamna, the closest village to the proposed site.

Statement

ILIAMNA AS SITE With a year-round population of only 109, the people of Iliamna primarily rely on subsistence fishing, hunting, and gathering coupled with a seasonal job. Seasonal industries including tourism and fishing rely heavily on the hunting and fishing lodges located on or around Iliamna Lake. Iliamna Lake is the largest lake in Alaska and the eighth largest lake in the United States. The lake drains into Kvichak River that drains into Bristol Bay. While Iliamna is the closest village to the proposed site, a dozen other villages located in the same watershed will be impacted as well. Through the construction of necessary roads, many of these villages that are currently only accessible through aircraft will be suspect to increased vehicular activity. Neighboring villages include Newhalen, Nondalton, Pedro Bay, and Port Alsworth, all of which maintain industries reliant upon subsistence fishing and hunting and seasonal tourism.2

Fig.1. Locating Bristol Bay and Pebble Mine

PEBBLE MINE

BRISTOL BAY

McKenna Cole

SITE CHALLENGES We cannot have a successful open pit mine and a successful fishery together. The truth of the matter is that thriving industries exist in the area right now, and they make use of the phenomenal renewable resources salmon and trout provide.3 The Pebble Mine Project is a highly contentious issue throughout the state of Alaska. Although the proposal has been in the work for over a decade, only within the past few years has the project come to the forefront of political and environmental debates. With multiple stakeholders and unclear environmental and social prospective impacts, debates often become highly biased and rarely lead to an objective look at the future potential scenarios. The Pebble Limited Partnership, the Alaska limited partnership, is half owned by a USbased subsidiary of the London-based Anglo American and the other half is owned by the Northern Dynasty Partnership which itself is owned by Vancouver-based Hunter Dickinson. Large stakeholders in Northern Dynasty include Kennecott (historically a copper mining company), Rio Tinto (British multinational metals and mining corporation), and Mitsubishi. The primary opponent to the project is the fishing industry. Bristol Bay is recognized as the most productive salmon run in the world, generating a total value of approximately $500 million dollars each year. The proposed mine itself would consist of large open pit mine, an underground mine, and two tailings dams. Because the ore is of a low-grade character, only mining at a very large scale makes it economically feasible.4 The open pit is expected to be 2 miles wide and at least 1700m deep (see Figures 3 and 4), according to boring samples taken back as early as 1988. The underground located directly to the east of the open pit would have a similar depth in order to reach the deposit. Up to ten million tons of waste rock will be produced during the operation of the mine and would be stored in two artificial lakes supported by earthen dams, the largest reaching a height of 740 feet.5

Statement

According to documents submitted by the mining company when it applied to the state of Alaska for water-withdrawal permits (which alone are a cause for anglers to worry), the pit would be roughly two miles by three miles in size. In the course of mineral extraction, the operation would generate an estimated 2.6 billion tons of waste rock. In order to hold back this waste, the company would have to construct of series of five dams and embankments. Eventually, one of the embankments would be 4.3 miles long and 740 feet high, and another earthen dam would stretch for 2.9 miles and rise to 700 feet high. These structures would be bigger than the Hoover or Grand Coulee dams, and would, in fact, dwarf the Three Gorges Dam in China—presently the world’s largest. All this digging and construction would occur in one of Alaska’s most seismically active areas and at the headwaters of its finest, wildest salmon and trout fishery.6 The greatest challenge for the Pebble Limited Partnership is going to be convincing the EPA as well as local populations and industries that the mine will not have a severely negative environmental impact. The heavy use of water that will be necessary for the mines operations will dramatically decrease water flow in the nearby Kvichak and Nushagak Rivers which are two primary salmon tributaries. In 2012 the Pebble Limited Partnership applied for water rights that would entitle them to 35 billion gallons water on a yearly basis. The creation of the enormous earthen dams will dramatically change the natural landscape by cutting off access to some streams and wetlands as well as posing a threat to the water quality of the adjacent rivers and salmon fisheries. Additional concerns for the local population revolve around obstructions to the subsistence hunting and fishing lifestyle. Migration of large game animals including bears, moose, and caribou will be altered. The construction of the mine as well as the roads and other required infrastructure such as transmission lines and ports, will pose a threat to an already decreasing wildlife population, due to non-local participation and climate change.

McKenna Cole

CONCLUSION We have radically modified the biotic stream; we had to.7 Assuming that the Pebble Mine will eventually be allowed to start operations, the question will become not “how can we stop the operations of the mine?” but rather, “how can the operations of the mine be altered in a way that will allow for maximum efficiency as well as maximum environmental sensitivity?” Current arguments both in favor and against the development of the Pebble project rely heavily on probability. With high levels of uncertainty stemming from lack of precise data regarding amounts of deposits or waste rock to the unpredictability of events such as earthquakes or tsunamis, no one certain future can be projected on the Bristol Bay region. There is only a certain level of precision that the mining engineers can produce now, but other than that there are too many factors and too many uncertainties. This is especially true when considering the potential regional effects the project will have. Numerous surficial mining claims have been made to sites adjacent to the Pebble project, and with new access to the large amount of infrastructure that will be constructed these sites will have an opportunity to be able to operate for the first time. Drawing upon Alan Berger’s notion of “drosscape,” these potential nodes of development and industrialization should not be seen as something “intrinsically bad or good but a natural result of industrial growth.”8 Fig. 2. Scenario Building Parameter Network

Statement

By taking into consideration current conditions and integrating them into various build out possibilities of the project, models that cross time scales and various physical events [earthquakes] will provide information for various parties interested in the discussion about the future of the region. Traditional predictive modeling is linear, focused on an eventual end date. The Pebble project, as it stands now, will start operating in 2020 and will have a lifespan of either 25 or 50 years, depending on which plan gets approved. With traditional predictive modeling, it may be possible to somewhat accurately depict the future state of the site five, maybe ten years beyond the beginning of construction. Beyond that, unexpected events like earthquakes or construction on other mining projects would throw off any model. Because of this, scenario building will be built into the modeling process, allowing for multiple looks into the future of the site, along various points of its long timescale. Modeling software traditionally meant for scientists or engineers, such as software from companies like Gemcom or Runge Pincock Minarco will be explored as tools during the scenario building process. It is through working with modeling and scenario building that a new, gradual and feedback-based predictive model as well as a new kind of design methodology will be formulated.

McKenna Cole

Fig. 3. Mine operations after 25 years. Red highlights impacted streams and wetlands.

Fig. 4. Mine operations after 50 years. Red highlights impacted streams and wetlands.

Statement

Fig. 5. Parameters/Uncertainties

SOURCES 1. D.J. Szumigala, L.A. Harbo, and J.N. Adleman . Alaska’s Mineral Industry 2010. 2. US Census Bureau. 2010 Census. 3. Andy Bullick. “Run Defense.” American Angler, 2010. 4. Our Bristol Bay. “Fact Sheet: The Risks of Pebble Mine.” http://www. ourbristolbay.com/the-risk-factsheet.html, 2011. 5. Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Mining, Land & Water. “Pebble Project.” http://dnr.alaska.gov/mlw/mining/largemine/pebble/, 2012. 6. Save Bristol Bay. “About Pebble Mine.” www.savebristolbay.org, 2012. 7. Leopold, Aldo. A Sand County Almanac. Oxford: Oxford University Press, Inc. 1966. Pg. 196. 8. Berger, Alan. Drosscape: Wasting Land in Urban America. New York: Princeton Architectural Press. 2006. Pg. 12.

McKenna Cole

Tennessee Valley Authority. Construction of Douglas Dam. Alfred T Palmer, 1942.

Precedents

03 Design Project Precedents Lateral Office|Klaksvik City Center Tennessee Valley Authority Stoss LU|Bass River Park Bradley Cantrell|Cyborg:Prosthetic

McKenna Cole

Precedents

Reclamation Precedent Matrix Mining + Reclamation Theoretical Framework Lateral Office|Klaksvik City Center|2012 Tennessee Valley Authority|1933-present

McKenna Cole

KLAKSVIK CITY CENTER, FAROE ISLANDS Lateral Office / LCLA - 2012

The population of the Faroe Islands has dramatically increased over the last two hundred years - the population of the city and municipality of Klaksvik has increased from just over 100 people to over 5000 people today. Beyond the tourism industry that is present, the main industry is whaling/fishing. While the population has been fairly steadily, the economy of the fishing and whaling industries has been a bit more turbulent. The aims of this urban design competition was to both be able to provide some coherence between the urban form that exists today due to rapid population growth while also allowing for a new identity for Klaksvik that will allow the town to continue as the fishing industry becomes less and less predictable/steady. The project sought to reimagine the urban waterfront, reclaim a landfill located at the port, and provide an identity for the public open spce while utilizing the town’s identity, geography, and culture as drivers for design.

Precedents

McKenna Cole

TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Founded in 1933

Pior to the establishment of the Tennessee Valley Authority in 1933, the Tennessee Valley population was suffering economically. Bad farming methods and over foresting had left the land in an extremely poor state. In order to generate jobs and update amenities and infrastructure in the area as well as to become independent from privatized utility companies, under the initial guidance of leaders such as Roosevelt and Nebraska senator George W. Norris, the TVA was founded. The goal of the TVA was to help modernize the Tennessee Valley region in various ways, hoping to alleviate the widespread economic and health challenges. Modern farming practices, coupled with the easy access to electricity helped making farming more efficient and helped to restore the state of the poor soil Since the 1930’s the TVA has established itself as the largest public power utility in the United States with 11 coal-powered plants, 29 hydroelectric dams, three nuclear power plants, nine simple ccle natural gas combustion turbine plants, and five combined cycle gas plants.

Precedents

McKenna Cole

BASS Â RIVER Â PARK Stoss LU

Variations in ecological factors serve as the primary driver for the design of Bass River Park. Four vegetal communities were identified that could be integrated into the design in order to increase biodiversity - red cedar meador, sand plain, wet meadow, and salt marsh. By first coming to terms with the fact that both short-term and longterm environmental conditions can drastically alter the composition of a landscape, a flexible system that allowed for these fluctuations became a necessity. Designing for differentiating environmental conditions was used in conjuction with design for different human activities and programming. The design itself is composed of a field of small circular landforms of varying heights and shapes meant to offer the site a rich series of microclimatic conditions. These variations allowed for the establishment and adaptation of the noted four vegetatal communities.

Precedents

McKenna Cole

CYBORG : PROSTHETIC

Bradley Cantrell with Jeff Carney and Kristi Dykema “Infrastructure, as we know it is parasitic. It is an external organizing framework, a prosthetic, gaining power and legitimacy when situated at the confluence of latent elements and their potential for flux.” The project uses the Mississippi River as a case study for studying the interactions and potentials of coupling infrastructure into natural systems. The “prosthetic” itself is meant to act between technology and ecology although designed for a single and specific reason. Along the Mississippi four sites were chosen to implement different types of this “prosthetic” - pile hive, nascent switch, tensile city, and force. This project utilizes scenario building in an interesting way in order to develop a design proposal that is on one hand grounded in current conditions and phenomena, but also is striving to be projective in a way that allows for a new vision of landscape to emerge.

Precedents

McKenna Cole

Robert Glen Ketchum, Pool 32 Magazine.

Site Description

04 Site Description Alaskan Cites + Villages Bristol Bay Mining + Fishing Industries Local Impacts - Villages + Watersheds

McKenna Cole

ALASKAN CITIES + VILLAGES Rich in natural resources and mineral deposits, Alaska has been settled in various waves according to the locations of these resources. While indigenous peoples had inhabited Alaska for thousands of years prior to any colonization, Russians became the first settlers in the 17th century. Along with Spanish and American settlers, early settlements were constructed along the coast and rivers, in order to facilitate the fur trade that was booming at the time. The gold rush in the Yukon Territory in the 19th and 20th centuries brought thousands of people to Alaska and it was around this time that Alaska was incorporated as an American territory.

Site Description

This map depicts the locations of current cities and villages (circles with white outlines) in relation to actively mined sites (small white circles) and the sites with surficial mining claims (small red circles). The gas and oil industries are the largest today with other main exports coming from the seafood industry. The mineral extraction industry has the potential to become one of the largest exporters and employers in the state of Alaska and would cause increases in population in areas that have primarily relied on subsistence hunting and fishing and the seasonal tourism industry.

McKenna Cole

BRISTOL BAY FISHING + MINING INDUSTRIES Bristol Bay, in Southwest Alaska is home to some of the largest salmon fisheries in the world (highlighted in the map). The proposed site for the Pebble Mine is located 17 miles northwest of Iliamna Lake, the largest lake in Alaska. Surrounded by these large fisheries and extensive conservation land (through the National Forest Service and US Fishing and Wildlife service, shown here in green), the Pebble Limited Partnership must be able to prove that its operations won’t undermine the environmental health of the region before being allowed to open.

Nearby Mining Claims

Planned Pebble Mine Footprints + Roads Iliamna Iliamna Lake

Nushagak District

Naknek-Kvichak District

Ugashik District

Site Description

Proposed Mines Conservation Land [NFS, USFS, UFWS]

Anchorage Northern Cook Inlet District

2LO 5H¿QHU\ Gas-Fired Generator

Central Cook Inlet District

Submarine Cable

Proposed Port Location

Southern Cook Inlet District

Kamishak Bay District Outer Cook Inlet District

Barren Islands District

Mainland Kodiak District Kodiak Island District

McKenna Cole

LOCAL IMPACTS - VILLAGES + WATERSHEDS Of the eleven or so villages that are located in closest proximity to the proposed Pebble site, a majority of them have year-round populations of about 100. Besides the town of Dillingham, which lies to the southeast and has a large port, the majority of the Bristol Bay population relies upon subsistence hunting and fishing. Seasonal tourism related to the fishing industry serves as the primary source of income for these towns. Highlighted in white are the watersheds that would be affected the most by the proposed mine. Large amounts of water will be diverted for the operations of the mine. Local populations could suffer if the mining operations negatively impact the health of the watersheds since a large portion of their diet comes from seasonal fishing. Additionally, these are the towns that will be most impacted by population increase as people start moving to the area in search for jobs related to mining and service industries. NEW Â STUYAHOK Pop: Â 471 92.78% Â Native Â American

EKWOK Pop: Â 115 91.54% Â Native Â American

DILLINGHAM Pop: Â 2,329 52.55% Â Native Â American large Â port ÂżVKLQJ FDQQLQJ VSRUW ÂżVKLQJ JRYHUQPHQW UH ODWHG MREV WRXULVP

LEVELOCK Pop: Â 69 89.34% Â Native Â American

Site Description

NONDALTON Pop: 164 89.14% Native American

ILIAMNA Pop: 109 50% Native American NEWHALEN Pop: 133 85% Native American

KOKHANOK Pop: 170 86.78% Native American IGIUGIG Pop: 50 71.70% Native American

PEDRO BAY Pop: 42 40% Native American

McKenna Cole

From Mintec MineSight, “The power of 3D visualization.”

Design Methodology

05 Design Methodology Prospectus on the method for the design work.

McKenna Cole

Throughout the design process, landscape architects have to deal with a complex system of ecological, social, and economic factors, among others. In order to formulate a comprehensive design methodology for working with a site as intricate as Bristol Bay, several research and design strategies will be utilized. Theoretical frameworks need to be tied together with representational tools and techniques in order to convey projected design intentions. Initial research will follow a more traditional mixed-methods approach to research. Historical research will be conducted using various sources. Historical maps, photographs, and compiled GIS data will provide spatial context. Written sources that focus on historical documentation of mining history and settlement patterns will help to formulate a design that will not only be able to function in the future, but also take into consideration the past. Visualizations of this data should include timelines, diagrams, and maps. Early on in the research phase of the project, case studies will provide a theoretical and methodological framework in which to position the project. Precedents will be chosen based not simply on similar subject matter, but also on representational methods and techniques. Additionally, case studies of mining or infrastructural projects of similar size and scale will be helpful in studying the future of the Pebble Mine and the Bristol Bay region. Even though the future of the Pebble site is unclear, since it is such a contested issue and site, data is plentiful. Through the Pebble Limited Partnership as well as through federal or non-profit agencies such as the EPA or Save Bristol Bay there is a lot of data specifically for the current and future environmental health of Bristol Bay and the surrounding region. Environmental impact assessments, watershed analyses, field inspection reports, pre-permitting environmental and socio-economic data reports, water right applications, and mineral extraction proposals are the kinds of documents that have been published through these groups. A renewed interest in the wealth of mineral deposits and other natural resources in Alaska has led to a large database of GIS information, especially data related to land cover and geology.

Design Methodology

Considering the amount of data available is large and the number of reports and documents are staggering, the fact that the agencies and groups publishing the information often have opposite motivations (namely either opening the mine or preventing the mine from being opened), it is hard to develop a clear picture of the current as well as the future state of Bristol Bay, should the Pebble Mine open. The immense scale at which the mine will be operating and the unknown impact the project will have regionally, in terms of population, urbanization, and industrialization follows few precedents, broadening this sense of unpredictability. Detrimental environmental events including earthquakes and climate change will further complicate any sort of sure vision of Bristol Bayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s future environmentally, socially, or economically. Given the level of uncertainty associated with the future of the Pebble Mine and its surrounding region, a new kind of design methodology focused on modeling and scenario building needs to be developed. Because no future scenario is perfectly predictable, the use of scenario building will be helpful in more clearly establishing a spectrum of potential effects. By identifying key parameters as well as the more unclear potential events, a network of numerous scenarios will be created. The key to developing these scenarios will be to relate the various parameters to each other in order to reveal several of the unknown future states. For the purpose of this thesis, a few of these scenarios will be played out to a finer resolution. The use of modeling will be integral into the scenario building process. Software often associated with engineers, fluid modeling, geology, and the mining industry will be used concurrently in order to help make the current data more spatial. By taking into consideration current conditions and integrating them into various build out possibilities of the project, models that cross time scales and various physical events (earthquakes) will hopefully provide information for various parties interested in the discussion about the future of the region.

McKenna Cole

In order to develop scenarios that deal with the full scope of the impacts that the Pebble Project could bring to the region, working at various scales will be important. Studies will always include the proposed site of the mine along with the tailings dams. The construction of the infrastructure including roads, ports, transmission lines, etc. will also always be shown. Zooming out to at least include adjacent watersheds is important considering the environmental impact assessments thus far have been done on a watershed scale. The 12 closest towns should be able to be seen at either the watershed scale or when exploring the potential build-outs of the necessary infrastructure. A final scale showing the entire southwest Alaska region will reveal potential regional impacts industrially. In order to sufficiently communicate the design intent through scenario building and modeling, a wide variety of representational tools will be utilized. While digital models might be coming directly from mining software, collages and renderings using on-the-ground imagery will be needed in order to discuss situations at a human scale. Because the project will focus on the intersection of local populations with a rapidly industrialized wilderness, visualizations showing these intersections are needed. Adjacencies of local/global, industrialized/natural, mining/fishing, ecology/development should be revealed through various representational techniques including timelines, diagrams, catalogs of parts, plans, and sections.

EXAMPLES OF MODELING SOFTWARE TO BE EXPLORED

GMS

PHEFLOW

Design Methodology

MODUS

AquaChem

VisualAEM

FEFLOW

MLAEM

SLAEM

Landserf

HYDRUS

McKenna Cole

Commercial Fishermen for Bristol Bay. 2011.

Deliverables

06 Design Media + Deliverables Production List for the Spring thesis work.

McKenna Cole

DELIVERABLES DIAGRAMS - Timelines revealing the discussion of landscape architecture in relation to mining practices, preservation, and reclamation. - History of the Alaskan fishing industry. - Operations of the Alaskan fishing industry on both a more local and more commercial/industrial scale [will need to include the Pacific Northwest]. - History of the Alaskan mining industry as well as the mining in dustry as a whole. - Show the scale of the proposed Pebble Mine in relation to other well known mines/properties/boundaries/cities. - Staging of the construction of the mine over time. Specific details of the closure plan and phasing strategies are necessary. MAPS - trace the towns of Iliamna, Newhalen, Nondalton, Alsworth, Igiugig, Kokhanok, and others in order to reveal local settlement patterns around the proposed mine. - settlement patterns and history of the state of Alaska - fishery locations, watershed boundaries - adjacencies of land use (state, federal, private, reservations, etc.) PLANS/SECTIONS - large section cutting through the entire Bristol Bay region reveal ing locations of known mineral deposits and villages - detailed plans and sections of the construction and operation of the Pebble Mine. Contact the Pebble Partnership for more information. - plans and sections for various phases of the construction/operation/closure of the mine

Deliverables

MAGERY - local fishing industry - local ecology - historical imagery of mining in the Yukon - subsistence hunting/fishing practices - similarly scaled mining projects - local towns and villages MODELING - first model the surface mine and underground mine along with the tailings dams - use flow modeling software to simulate potential decreases in flows due to mining activities - utilize various mining/geology software in order to more precise ly show deposit locations and the infrastructure needed for the successful operation of the mine SCENARIO BUILDING - mining activity related scenarios will deal with varying build-out potentials of the mine and tailings dams - environmental impacts will be shown by revealing various impacts specifically to the fishing industry - potential population increase will be shown in build-outs of infrastructure and town limits and sizes

McKenna Cole

Nick Hall, 2012.

Schedule

07 Schedule Monthly schedule of thesis work.

McKenna Cole

SCHEDULE Although this schedule attempts to document the production that is sup- posed to happen before the Final Review in May, it is expected that with the development of the Spring semester will come shifts in the schedule as well as the list of deliverables. Although the Fall semester served as a research period, research will be continued through the Spring semester with the recognition that research yields design and design yields research. A constant goal will be to produce finished and final drawings throughout the year in order to maximize production time. Throughout the Spring semester outreach to the mining corporation, government officials, local activist groups, software companies, fellow re- searchers will critical and should be constant and continuous.

NOVEMBER Continue precedent studies Gather aerial imagery Timelines of Alaskan mining and fishing histories Plans of 25 and 50 year build-out potentials of the mine DECEMBER Continue working on thesis prep document Continue clarifying narrative or presentation More detailed plans of the mining operations

Schedule

JANUARY Jan. 24-25 - Pre-semester review Detailed sections of proposed mine Long transect through entire Bristol Bay region Establish a chain of communication through both the Pebble Limited Partnership as well as the EPA Begin learning mining and flow modeling software FEBRUARY Start working on regional mappings connecting current and projected industries in relation to existing towns (include projections of new town boundaries) Continue learning and working with new software Establish 3-4 scenarios to play out through an ~80 year timescale Begin developing imagery for the various scenarios MARCH Storyboard drawings and narrative of the the mid review presentation. APRIL April 15-19 - Mid-Review (exact date TBD) Revise final deliverables according to mid-review feedback. MAY Final production of deliverables. Focus on imagery and perspectives. May 15-17 - Final Review (exact date TBD)

McKenna Cole

Loren Holmes, Unalaska, 2012.

Bibliography

08 Annotated Bibliography

McKenna Cole

ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING / MINING OPERATIONS Robert Lee Aston, The Legal, Engineering, Environmental, and Social Perspectives of Surface Mining Law and Reclamation by Landfilling: Getting Maximum Yield from Surface Mines (London: Imperial College Press, 1999) The goal of the author is to couple restoration of surface mining land with areas to deposit human waste. “The subject of this work, although primarily a legal and environmental engineering treatment of the subject, has, in its main, a perspective of great interest to the public - the social and environmental concerns of restoring disturbed earth from surface mining to its natural, pre-mined condition.”[pg. 5] Although this book is not written from a designers perspective, the emphasis of trying to restore a mining landscape back to its “natural” condition is of importance to my framing of restoration and mining practices.

Braden Copper Company, Mining Department, Mining Methods and Operating Organization at the Teniente Mine of the Braden Copper Com- pany, Chile (Braden Copper Company, 1929) Walter Briggs, Mining Copper at Kennecott, Alaska (San Francisco: Mining and Scientific Press, 1919). Jon Burley, Environmental Design for Reclaiming Surface Mines (New York: The Edwin Mellen Press, 2001). A highly technical and thorough look at surface mine reclamation procedures – mainly through the eyes of a planner.

Darmer, Gerhard and Norman L. Dietrich. 1992. Landscape and Sur- face Mining : Ecological Guidelines for Reclamation : English Language Translation of Landschaft Und Tagebau, Oekologische Leitbilder Fuer Die Rekultivierung. Editorial Staff of the Engineering and Mining Journal, Handbook of Mining Details (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., 1912). Claudia Gasparrini, Gold and Other Precious Metals: From Ore to Market (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1993). This text contains very detailed information about the composition and various forms of gold as well as tables of gold extraction processes. Diagrams showing steps from microanalysis of conditions pre-mining carried through mine closure will be used as a refer- ence for diagrams that I will be creating.

Bibliography

Howard Hartman, Introductory Mining Engineering (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1987. Herbert C Hoover, Principles of Mining (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1909). Hoagland, Alison K., 1951-. 2010. Mine Towns : Buildings for Workers in Michigan’s Copper Country. L.J. Thomas, An Introduction to Mining: Exploration, Feasibility, Extrac- tion, Rock Mechanics (Adelaide: The Griffin Press, 1973) Larsen, Kenneth W. and Harvard University Dept of City Planning and Landscape Architecture,Student problems. 1956. Planning for Mining Towns. Harvard GSD-1956. Robert Peele, Mining Engineers’ Handbook (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1941). Eugene P. Pfleider, editor, Surface Mining (New York: American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers, 1972). Schor, Horst and Donald H. Gray. Landforming: An Environmental Ap- proach to Hillside Development, Mine Reclamation, and Watershed Res- toration (Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2007) Rather than emphasizing restoration or conservation, Landforming presents a series of conditions and strategies to best manage the land. From explain- ing surficial erosion processes to calculating predicted soil loss, this text presents data driven processes and diagrams in a manner that can be easily adapted and utilized by designers.

Society for Surface Mining and Reclamation, and Western Regional Coordinating Committee on Revegetation and Stabilization of Deteriorated and Altered Lands. 1992. Evaluating Reclamation Success : The Ecological Consideration : April 23-26, 1990, Charleston, West Virginia. Vol. 164.

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ALASKA SPECIFIC Michael D. Balen and others, Executive Summary of the Bureau of Mines Investigations in the Valdez Creek Mining District, Alaska (US Department of the Interior, 1991). Similar to the ecological impact reports put out by the EPA for the Peb- ble project, this report frames the exploration of the Valdez Creek Mining District historically at first, and then breaks the area down into several parts which then undergo a more narrow environmental and mineral potential study.

Bruce Campbell and Louella Finch, editors, Second Annual Conference on Alaskan Placer Mining: Focus: Gold (Fairbanks: Mineral Industry Research Laboratory, School of Mineral Industry, University of Alaska). Paul Dean Proctor and Robert E. Carlile, eds. University of Missouri School of Mines and Metallurgy: Alaska-Its Mineral Potentials and Envi- ronmental Challenges (University of Missouri, 1971).

Although now somewhat outdated and although topics go beyond mineral extraction, this journal outlines major pressures on Alaska in terms of natural resource extraction in relation to settlement development [mainly around already established urban centers such as Anchorage]. Many of the challenges that the journal touches upon, such as state regulations on oil and gas, feasibility of oil pipelines, corporate versus independent contracts, etc., are still being discusses today.

Spude, Catherine Holder and Historical Archaeology Society for. 2011. Eldorado! : The Archaeology of Gold Mining in the Far North.

Bibliography

RECLAMATION [DESIGN] Alan Berger, editor, Designing the Reclaimed Landscape (New York: Taylor & Francis, 2008).

Articles of particular interest include “Disturbance ecology and symbio- sis in mine-reclamation design” by Peter Del Tredici, “Community-based reclamation of abandoned mine lands in the Animas River watershed, San Juan County, Colorado” by William Simon, and “Digital simulation and reclamation: strategies for altered landscapes” by Alan Berger and Case Brown. The book is thorough in describing various positions related to mine reclamation – from ecologists, to planners, to computer scientists.

Alan Berger, Drosscape: Wasting Land in Urban America (New York: Princeton Architectural Press, 2006).

“Dross emerges out of two primary processes: first, as a consequence of current rapid horizontal urbanization [or what some refer to as urban ‘sprawl’], and second, as the leftovers of previous economic and production regimes, which are both catalyzed by the drastic decrease in transportation costs [for goods and people] over the past century...drosscape investigates the entire urbanized region of as a waste product formed by and liked to economic and industrial processes.” [pg. 12] Although Drosscape refers to areas that were urbanized and industrialized to an extent that goes beyond the expectations for Alaska, the notion of considering all of the land touched by urbanization to be “waste” will create a much broader view of the scope of my project.

Alan Berger, Reclaiming the American West (New York: Princeton Architectural Press, 2002).

This text marks a turning point for the acknowledgement of post-mining landscapes in the American West. The vision of the West as a region with count- less open space became tainted by the vision of a landscape of waste, the post- technological landscape. “The surreal terrains in this book are the unmistakable sign of a new vision of the world that is emerging, a vision that can no longer endure the limi- tations of scholarly discipline, academic field, traditional values, or even de- liberative debate. Alan Berger shows us that there is no way to even see these landscapes without mixing into one’s expectations the categories of mining law, visionary poetry, ecological science, postmodern montage art, landscape design, municipal health ordinances, geology, aerial photography, environmental ethics, economics, poststructuralist critical theory, hydrology, frontier history, and soil chemistry – to name only a few.” (pg.12)

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Garnaas, Allan D., Harvard University Dept of Landscape Architecture,and Harvard University Graduate School of Design, Stu- dent work. 1974. Surface Coal Mining and Rehabilitation : A Process : A Study Toward Establishing a Stable, Balanced Natural Environment in the Northern Great Plains Coal Lands. Ghersi, Adriana and Francesca Mazzino. Landscape & Ruins: Planning and Research for the Regeneration of Derelict Places. Firenze: GENESI GRUPPO Editoriale S.r.l., 2007, Print. Internationale Bauausstellung IBA. Redesigning the Wounded Land- scape: The IBA-Workshop in Lusatia. Berlin: Jovis, 2012. Print.

The work of the IBA in Lusatia is covered by first providing a history of the mining region and then working through the process of the IBA and various schemes presented by some of the thirty teams of designers. The article “Land- scape Laboratory Lusatia: The example of the open-cast mine Welzow Sud” by Oliver Hamm and Brigitte Scholz write about several projects by various teams as well as the iterations that the teams went through over the period of about ten years.

Harvard University Dept of,Landscape Architecture, Carl Steinitz, and Harvard University Graduate School of Design, Student work. 1980. Of Change and a Valley. Internationale Bauausstellung IBA. “Landscape Made From a Giant’s Hand.” IBA. 24 July 2012. Web.

Whereas the book discusses more of the ecological implications of the design by bgmr + archiscape, the online article reveals more about their aesthet- ic/artistic intentions. Discussion of the landform manipulation reveals both artistic as well as functional purposes. This particular project is discussed as being designed specifically with the machinery of the mining operations in mind. While some of the other projects were planned after the closure of a mine, this design was meant to be implemented over several decades, along side the mining operations.

Paulson, Merlyn James, Research Fund Ford Foundation Student, and Harvard University Dept of,Landscape Architecture. 1975. West- ern Coal Stripmines, Related Energy Conversion Structures, and Trans- mission Lines: A Study of Visual Quality, Visual Change, and Alleviating Visual Siting Criteria.

Bibliography

Schierz, Heinrich and Kreissparkasse Bitterfeld. 2001. Heading for New Shores : The Goitzsche, 62 Square Kilometers in a Former Mining Landscape Near Bitterfeld : The World’s Largest Landscape Art Project. Waste2Place. “Wellington-Oro Mine I French Gulf, Breckenridge, CO.” 2012.

The Waste2Place website is a source of various mining reclamation projects in America. Projects are sorted by mining type. An aerial gallery on the site has a lot of imagery from Berger’s Reclaiming the American West. A “Four- Point Reclamation Manifesto” calls for the conservation of energy and mass in site transformation, the adaptive use of site conditions, plant ecology and vegetation strategy, and interactive landscape circulation and infrastructure.

MISC. Cliggett, Lisa, 1965- and Christopher A. Pool. 2008. Economies and the Transformation of Landscape. Vol. no. 25. Dávid, Lóránt, József Szabó Dr., and Dénes Lóczy. 2010. Anthropo- genic Geomorphology : A Guide to Man-made Landforms. Topping, Peter, Mark J. Lynott, and Society for American Archaeology Meeting (66th : 2001,: New Orleans. 2005. “The Cultural Landscape of Prehistoric Mines.” Hill, Michael J., Richard J. Aspinall, and Thomas R. Loveland. 2000. Spatial Information for Land use Management. Lagacherie, P., A. B. McBratney, M. Voltz, and Global Workshop on Digital,Soil Mapping. 2007. Digital Soil Mapping : An Introductory Perspective. 1st ed. Vol. . 31. Loomis, John B. 1993. Integrated Public Lands Management : Princi- ples and Applications to National Forests, Parks, Wildlife Refuges, and BLM Lands. Mitchell, Colin. Terrain Evaluation: An Introductory Handbook to the His- tory, Principles, and Methods of Practical Terrain Assessment (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1991).

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George Becker, Comstock Mine. 1882.

Appendices

09 Appendices A. Mapping Techniques B. Miscellaneous Maps C. Field Review D. Network Diagram Precedents E. Software Development F. Scale + Comparisons

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APPENDIX A : Mapping Techniques MOVEMENT/FLOWS

Aranda\Lasch|The Brooklyn Pigeon Project

NArchitects|Rising Currents

Antoine Grumbach Associes |Moscow Planning Exspaces

Appendices

PROCESS

BIG|World Village of Womens Sports

BIG|8 House

ARO + dlan|Rising Currents

Classification/Categorization/Programming

OMA|Changchun Jingyue Cultural and Leisure District

Andrew tenBrink|Ghost States

Opsys|Great Lake Watershed

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Traditional Mining Mapping

Harza Engineering Company | Land Reclamation Project

George Becker | Comstock Mine, 1882

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Projective Mapping

Future Cities Lab|The Aurora Project Â

Chora Architecture|Taiwan Strait Climate Change Incubator

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APPENDIX B : Miscellaneous Maps

NATIONAL PARK SERVICE

FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE

NATIVE AMERICAN LAND

VILLAGES

CITIES

STATE OWNED LAND

Appendices

OPERATING MINES

MINING CLAIMS

ACTIVE FEDERAL MINES

GEOLOGY

PRIVATELY OWNED LAND

CONSERVATION LAND

MILITARY RESERVATIONS

NATIONAL FOREST SERVICE

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APPENDIX C : Field Review Landscape Architecture has a long history of discussing about issues of conservation, reclamation, and remediation. The 1950’s brought about the first discussion of reclamation into the profession of landscape architecture. Talking about mining as well as older industrial sites, authors such as Laurence Dudley Stamp, JC Holliday, and GF Chadwick began to explore how reclamation was a process that needed to integrate the fields of geography and landscape architecture into it. In the late 1960’s and 1970’s design studios at Harvard and at the University of Pennsylvania began to explore how landscape architects could approach reclamation issues, primarily focusing on coal mining lands in Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. It was during this time that “landscape reclamation” was coined by Brian Hackett. With the growth of the environmental movement in the 1970’s, focus shifted towards “fixing” a “damaged” landscape. It was now the responsibility of landscape architects to remediate the harm caused by industrial development on the environment. In terms of discussions focused on mining practices specifically, throughout the last 50-60 years landscape architects have focused on post-mining activities and reclamation (see Figure on next page). A landscape architecture thesis project in 1956 as well as an article in a journal by Joane Pim started a conversation about planning for mining towns. While this could have generated a much larger discussion about landscape architecture intervening in pre-mineral extraction procedures, the focus shifted towards mining reclamation. Alan Berger and his work here at Harvard and MIT through PREX has been critical in bringing to attention the challenges that face our society in terms of derelict mining and industrial land. While earlier authors had placed a negative connotation on mining and industrial land, Berger brings about the notion of a “drosscape” in order to illustrate the fact that these potential nodes of development and industrialization should not be seen as something “intrinsically bad or good but a natural result of industrial growth.

Appendices

With these contaminated, derelict, and abandoned sites identified as places that are of environmental and social concern, the question became “how can landscape deal with these sites?” Works by Peter Latz, OMA, P-REX, and Dirt Studio, among others reveal how a landscape architect might be able to not only help remediate, but also to design a project that allows for enjoyable human inhabitation and access. While larger remediation projects that emphasize more public access and more programming, these typically occur in areas much closer to larger cities where pressure to clean up sites high and funding is more available. But for areas that have experience population decline as industrial processes have moved away and for more remote areas in general, gaining federal funding and for contamination clean up can be much more difficult and as a result reclamation projects have to be more simple and basic. Landscape architecture is now seeing a flux of designers beginning to focus on strategies for pre-mining design. RePlan, a Canadian based firm brings together landscape architects, architects, planners, environmental planners, engineers, community development specialists and anthropologists together in order to provide “social assessment, advisory, and management services to natural resource companies…around the world. [They] help natural resource companies to understand and fulfill their corporate social responsibility, both in the boardroom and in the field.”1 While much earlier work in landscape architecture dealing with pre-resource extraction procedures might have been more abstract or conceptual, the need still remains today. By focusing on studying modeling techniques that are innovative as well as accessible to various populations, a more holistic approach to designing for closure is possible.

1. Replan. “Our Team.” replan.ca

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Appendices

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APPENDIX D : Network Diagram Precedents In the process of beginning to understand scenario building and predictive modeling, it was important to look at examples of diagrams and charts within the design field and beyond. The next page highlights two examples of flowcharts used in the mineral extraction process, specifically related to gold recovery. Below is a flowchart related specifically to groundwater modeling. Some simple, others more complex, these models are inherently based on a feedback system, there is a beginning to the processes, but no end. Decisions are made sequentially, but are used to inform earlier steps in the process the next time around.

Appendices

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APPENDIX E : Software Development

Appendices

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APPENDIX F : Scale + Comparisons

Appendices