McMillin Realty's market update CHULA VISTA
Current prices for homes on the market Trends in pricing Current levels of supply and demand Value metrics
Report for the week of Sunday March 7, 2010
Presented by Your Real Estate Expert 866-694-6491 McMillin Realty www.mcmillinrealty.com - clientcare@mcmillinrealty.com
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City Overview
CHULA VISTA Trend
Real-Time Market Profile
THIS WEEK
The median single family home price
Median List Price $ 379,950 Average List Price $ 418,333 Least Expensive Listing $ 100,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 3,599,900 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 180 Average Days on Market 148 Total Inventory 702 Absorbed This Week* 61 Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 18 % Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 7% Percent Flip (price increased) 8% Median House Size (sq ft) 2,102 Median Lot Size 6,501 - 8,000 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 4.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 2.5 Median Age 10 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 25
in CHULA VISTA this week is $379,950. The 702 homes have been on the market for an average of 148 days.
Inventory and days-on-market are climbing, while the Market Action Index has been flat recently. The trends point to a weakening market.
Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supply relative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favor the seller. See the section below for full details.
QUARTILES
Trend Key Last Month's Trend
Last Quarter's Trend
No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend
*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons. Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which properties sold.
To get a tightly targeted understanding of homes in the market, we break each locale into quartiles. Each quartile is 25% of the homes listed.
Characteristics per Quartile Med. Sqft. Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
3,217
0.25 - 0.50 acre
5.0
3.5
7
175
17
11 156 Most expensive 25% of homes
$ 415,000
2,430
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
2.5
8
175
11
12 152 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 340,000
1,794
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
2.5
10
176
17
17 135 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 267,000
1,413
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
3.0
2.0
44
176
18
21 152 Least expensive 25% of homes
Quart
Median Price
1
$ 549,900
2
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend graphs below.
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PRICE The market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this trend.
QUARTILE PRICES Often, we find insights by watching pricing trends within the quartile segments. Prices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.
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PRICE AND VALUE The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels.
INVENTORY Inventory has been climbing lately. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.
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Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be MARKET ACTION INDEX characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index The CHULA VISTA market is currently falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. in the Buyer's Market zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day Market Action Index stands this week at 25 so buyers should expect find reasonable levels of selection.
The market has shown some evidence of slowing recently. Both prices and inventory levels are relatively The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market") because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold Market") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.
unchanged in recent weeks. Watch the Market Action Index for changes as it can be a leading indicator for price changes.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall market shifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole group changes. The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my price range?"
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DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) The properties have been on the market for an average of 148 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 84 or so days.
DOM PER QUARTILE It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
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CHULA VISTA
Neighborhood Detail Real-Time Market Profile
91915 Trend
Median List Price $ 399,900 Average List Price $ 418,411 Least Expensive Listing $ 250,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 919,900 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 170 Average Days on Market 143 Total Inventory 124 Absorbed This Week 10 Median House Size (sq ft) 2,343 Median Lot Size 4,501 - 6500 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 4.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 2.5 Median Age 6 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 25
THIS WEEK The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA 91915 this week is $399,900.
Inventory and days-on-market are climbing, while the Market Action Index has been flat recently. The trends point to a weakening market.
PRICE We continue to see prices in this zip code bouncing around this plateau. Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move from these levels.
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PRICE PER QUARTILE In the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES Quart
Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
1
$ 550,000
3,398
8,001 - 10,000 sq ft
5.0
3.5
7
31
3
4
122 Most expensive 25% of homes
2
$ 435,000
2,648
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
3.0
6
31
1
2
183 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 375,000
2,159
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
2.5
6
31
5
3
129 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 300,000
1,651
Less than 4,500 sq ft
3.0
2.5
8
31
3
1
139 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORY Inventory has been climbing lately with 124 properties available this week. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.
MARKET ACTION INDEX The CHULA VISTA 91915 market is currently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day Market Action Index stands this week at 25 so buyers should expect find reasonable levels of selection.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.
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DAYS ON MARKET The properties have been on the market for an average of 143 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 91 or so days. Watch the 90day DOM trend for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
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CHULA VISTA
Neighborhood Detail Real-Time Market Profile
91914 Trend
Median List Price $ 479,000 Average List Price $ 554,779 Least Expensive Listing $ 225,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 3,599,900 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 172 Average Days on Market 175 Total Inventory 89 Absorbed This Week 9 Median House Size (sq ft) 3,062 Median Lot Size 8,001 - 10,000 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 4.4 Median Number of Bathrooms 3.5 Median Age 6 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 24
THIS WEEK The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA 91914 this week is $479,000.
Demand measured by the Market Action Index is increasing and days-onmarket is holding steady. With more properties coming available, conditions are mildly positive.
PRICE We continue to see prices in this zip code bouncing around this plateau. Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move from these levels.
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PRICE PER QUARTILE In the quartile market segments, we see prices across the quartiles of this zip code not tightly correlated recently. Prices in Quartile 1 and 4 have been mixed recently, while the rest of the market is trending downward. Look to a strong, persistent up shift in the Market Action Index as a leading indicator of the trough in the market.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES Quart
Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
1
$ 659,500
4,262
0.25 - 0.50 acre
5.0
4.5
4
22
2
1
149 Most expensive 25% of homes
2
$ 551,500
3,504
8,001 - 10,000 sq ft
5.0
3.5
5
22
2
3
153 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 449,500
2,558
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
3.0
6
22
2
2
187 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 370,876
2,128
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
2.5
7
23
3
3
210 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORY Inventory has been climbing lately with 89 properties available this week. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.
MARKET ACTION INDEX The CHULA VISTA 91914 market is currently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day Market Action Index stands this week at 24 so buyers should expect find reasonable levels of selection.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.
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DAYS ON MARKET The properties have been on the market for an average of 175 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 105 or so days. Watch the 90day DOM trend for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
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CHULA VISTA
Neighborhood Detail Real-Time Market Profile
91913 Trend
Median List Price $ 384,950 Average List Price $ 395,503 Least Expensive Listing $ 191,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 875,000 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 173 Average Days on Market 135 Total Inventory 218 Absorbed This Week 14 Median House Size (sq ft) 2,174 Median Lot Size 4,501 - 6500 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 4.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 2.5 Median Age 7 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 24
THIS WEEK The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA 91913 this week is $384,950.
The Market Action Index has been trending down lately, while inventory is climbing. These trends imply a weakening market.
PRICE We continue to see prices in this zip code hovering around these current levels, even though they bumped up a bit this week. Look for a persistent upshift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move significantly from here.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
PRICE PER QUARTILE In the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES Quart
Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
1
$ 489,495
3,150
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
5.0
3.2
7
54
5
1
159 Most expensive 25% of homes
2
$ 412,500
2,502
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
3.0
7
54
3
4
96 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 360,000
1,952
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
2.5
8
55
3
7
134 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 309,900
1,559
Less than 4,500 sq ft
3.0
2.5
8
55
1
2
150 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORY Inventory has been climbing lately with 218 properties available this week. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.
MARKET ACTION INDEX The CHULA VISTA 91913 market is currently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day Market Action Index stands this week at 24 so buyers should expect find reasonable levels of selection.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
DAYS ON MARKET The properties have been on the market for an average of 135 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 84 or so days. Watch the 90day DOM trend for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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CHULA VISTA
Neighborhood Detail Real-Time Market Profile
91911 Trend
Median List Price $ 290,000 Average List Price $ 306,163 Least Expensive Listing $ 100,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 1,390,000 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 184 Average Days on Market 164 Total Inventory 128 Absorbed This Week 13 Median House Size (sq ft) 1,622 Median Lot Size 6,501 - 8,000 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 3.6 Median Number of Bathrooms 2.0 Median Age 46 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 29
THIS WEEK The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA 91911 this week is $290,000.
Even though the days-on-market is trending higher, so is the Market Action Index at these inventory levels, providing a neutral outlook for the market.
PRICE The market for this zip code continues its bounce again this week. We're a long way from the market's high point so watch the Market Action Index to predict how long this trend will last.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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PRICE PER QUARTILE In the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES Quart
Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
1
$ 385,500
2,156
8,001 - 10,000 sq ft
4.0
2.5
21
32
4
2
128 Most expensive 25% of homes
2
$ 307,000
1,635
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
3.5
2.0
45
32
4
2
214 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 264,500
1,465
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
3.0
2.0
44
32
5
3
119 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 215,775
1,050
8,001 - 10,000 sq ft
3.0
1.5
50
32
4
6
193 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE In a market where prices are rising fairly consistently, price per square foot is essentially flat. This often implies that new homes coming on the market are pricier, and also larger than older homes. As a result the value one can buy stays the same.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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INVENTORY Inventory has been steady around these levels in recent weeks with 128 properties currently available.
MARKET ACTION INDEX The CHULA VISTA 91911 market is currently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day Market Action Index stands this week at 29 so buyers should expect find reasonable levels of selection.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES The middle of this zip code (Quartiles 2 and 3) are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Notice that Quartiles 2 and 3 (the middle of the market) are showing weaker demand than either end.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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DAYS ON MARKET The properties have been on the market for an average of 163 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 77 or so days. Watch the 90day DOM trend for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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CHULA VISTA
Neighborhood Detail Real-Time Market Profile
91910 Trend
Median List Price $ 360,000 Average List Price $ 468,553 Least Expensive Listing $ 185,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 2,999,500 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 208 Average Days on Market 144 Total Inventory 143 Absorbed This Week 15 Median House Size (sq ft) 1,784 Median Lot Size 6,501 - 8,000 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 3.8 Median Number of Bathrooms 2.5 Median Age 26 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 24
THIS WEEK The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA 91910 this week is $360,000.
Inventory and days-on-market are climbing, while the Market Action Index has been flat recently. The trends point to a weakening market.
PRICE The market for this zip code continues its bounce again this week. We're a long way from the market's high point so watch the Market Action Index to predict how long this trend will last.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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PRICE PER QUARTILE In the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have generally settled at a plateau, although Quartile 1 has been trending a bit downward in recent weeks. We'll need to see a persistent shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices across the board move from these levels.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES Quart
Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
1
$ 649,950
2,991
0.25 - 0.50 acre
5.0
3.0
14
35
3
1
193 Most expensive 25% of homes
2
$ 399,950
2,086
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
2.5
24
36
5
1
164 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 329,500
1,626
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
3.0
2.5
25
36
2
7
115 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 249,950
1,138
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
3.0
1.2
60
36
3
6
104 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE In a market where prices are rising fairly consistently, price per square foot is essentially flat. This often implies that new homes coming on the market are pricier, and also larger than older homes. As a result the value one can buy stays the same.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORY Inventory has been climbing lately with 143 properties available this week. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.
MARKET ACTION INDEX The CHULA VISTA 91910 market is currently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day Market Action Index stands this week at 24 so buyers should expect find reasonable levels of selection.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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DAYS ON MARKET The properties have been on the market for an average of 143 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 84 or so days. Watch the 90day DOM trend for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
About Altos Research Corporation Altos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets across the country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition to the market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estate decision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other Altos Research publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with a licensed real estate agent or broker.
Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved
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