Lessons from the war in Ukraine, one year later commenTary

By Antonio De Lorea-Brust

Special to The Enterprise

It is hard to believe that it has already been a year since the full-fledged Russian invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24, 2022. A conflict between Ukraine and Russia had raged on and off since 2014, when Vladimir Putin seized Crimea. But what began a year ago has been substantially larger, more violent and more intense: the direct invasion of the whole of Ukraine by the Russian military.

At the time of the Russian invasion, I was serving as Special Assistant to the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. As such, I was part of the diplomatic team that worked very hard in the half year leading up to February 2022 to try and stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine. All wars represent a failure of diplomacy. It was hard then to not take that failure a little personally. But I saw up close the enormous lengths that the secretary of state, his team and the entire U.S. government went to offer Russia a genuine diplomatic dialogue, all while warning clearly and accurately that this invasion was being planned.

I am still proud that we did so, even if it was probably doomed from the start, because it makes abundantly clear that this war is Vladimir Putin’s fault. He was given other options that involved no loss of life to address any of Russia’s legitimate concerns. Putin chose this option — to invade another country. All the subsequent tragedies of this war flow from that decision.

It has been a year of tragedies. While exact figures are difficult to obtain, the U.S. government estimates around 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed. Estimates of Russian military deaths go as high as 200,000. Over 8 million Ukrainians have been displaced by the conflict.

Many of these refugees have even reached Davis, where they have found welcome but also the persistent challenges of language barriers, economic hardship and accessing government services that impact too many immigrants in our community.

The Russian invasion in Ukraine has also sparked a major global food-security crisis, particularly in Africa and the Middle East as Ukraine’s grain harvest has been destroyed or disrupted. A deal negotiated by the UN, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine to let Ukrainian grain transit the Black Sea has helped avoid an even worse crisis, as have U.S. food security efforts championed by the U.S. delegation to the United Nations.

For Yolo County — an agricultural economy before all else — this war serves a reminder of the importance of being able to guarantee America’s own food supply and of the gratitude we owe in particular to the Mexican immigrant farm workers who make our harvests possible.

Despite the tragedies of this war, it has also been a year of remarkable Ukrainian resilience and American resolve.

Contrary to all expectations in February 2022, Kyiv still stands, as President Biden’s recent visit so dramatically reminded the world. Significant portions of Eastern Ukraine have been liberated. The dogged Ukrainian will to fight has been matched with an impressive U.S. willingness to rush military equipment and ammunition to the front.

Not since the 1940s has the United States been so clearly the Arsenal of Democracy, far outsripping in material terms the contributions of any other nation to Ukraine’s defense. Despite some critics on the right such as former President Trump, U.S. aid to Ukraine has also been remarkably bipartisan, with everyone from Sen. Bernie Sanders to Sen. Ted Cruz voting to authorize U.S. aid to Ukraine. Defending democracy abroad it seems can still unify us — even if defending democracy at home can’t.

As this winter comes to an end, we can also say that the unity of the Transatlantic alliance has held up much better than was feared a year ago. Though the cutting off of cheap Russian energy caused significant economic pain for millions of working-class Europeans, Russia’s “energy weapon” has not resulted in what Putin had hoped: the splitting of the Western alliance. Germany’s recent decision to approve the transfer of tanks to Ukraine is a testament to the effectiveness of American diplomacy and the value of our alliances.

Western tanks will be arriving in Ukraine just in time. The year ahead is full of more challenges. Already, a Russian offensive is underway, with Putin’s forced mobilization having largely replenished the Russian military’s losses in 2022 (preventing Russian men from fleeing Putin’s draft by implementing across-the-board travel bans on Russians has been one of the most short-sighted policy choices made by our Eastern European allies, a reminder that Russophobia is not just morally wrong, but tactically counterproductive). The outcome on the battlefield may well come down to who will run out of ammunition first. Despite the herculean logistical feat accomplished by what amounts to a 24/7 air bridge bringing American ammo to Ukraine, Ukraine could rarely keep up with the Russian rate of artillery fire in 2022. In this context, Secretary Blinken’s recent warning that China may begin supplying n One killed, several injured in weekend Yolo County crashes: http://wp.me/p3aczg-4hg7 n Man fatally shot by SWAT officer ID’d: http://wp.me/p3aczg-4hfd n UCD prof kicks off Emeriti Lectures: http://wp.me/p3aczg-4haI n Soccer: DHS girls’ unselfish play led to phenomenal season: http://wp.me/p3aczg-4he8 n Field to Fork: Davis twins find farming is in their blood: http://wp.me/p3aczg-4hih

Russia with military aid is very worrisome.

A diplomatic solution in 2023 remains unlikely, with the Russians having shown no willingness to negotiate, and with Putin’s recent speech confirming that Moscow remains committed to maximalist goals. Atrocities committed by the Russian occupation at places like Bucha, where mass graves were found shortly after Ukraine liberated it, have also hardened Ukraine’s resolve. Recognizing Russia’s territorial annexations is a condition Ukraine cannot accept.

The central problem is this: Can a conventional military power impose defeat on a nuclear superpower? It has happened before, most recently to us in Afghanistan. But it requires the nuclear superpower accepting this defeat and moving on. There is no evidence Vladimir Putin is there yet. The Biden administration has been careful to manage the risk of a direct U.S.-Russia conflict, which could result in a nuclear exchange. It will have to continue to do so, but without giving nuclear states a general license to invade their neighbors, which would also be a recipe for disaster. It’s the highest stakes tightrope walk, but so far the Biden team hasn’t even wobbled.

The best strategy then is to continue to arm Ukraine as best we can, while increasing Putin’s global isolation. This is where the U.S. has most fallen short. While the NATO alliance has emerged unified and stronger from 2022, with Finland and Sweden soon to join, much of the Global South remains decidedly on the fence. Lula in Brazil, AMLO in Mexico and Modi in India have all made clear their neutrality. Russia continues to enjoy close relationships with many countries in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East.

For Putin to truly feel the pressure to negotiate, the United States must focus on getting more of the Global South on Ukraine’s side. This is easier said than done. The Global South is not inclined to accept moralistic lectures about imperialism from its former European colonizers. Latin America bristles at being told to listen to our views on Ukraine while we ignore their views on Cuba. But still, we should think of nations like India, Mexico, Egypt, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Vietnam, Nigeria and Argentina (to name a few) as the “swing states” who may well determine the ultimate diplomatic outcome of this war.

In the meantime, let the Arsenal of Democracy do all it can. Slava Ukraini.

— Antonio De LoeraBrust is a former staffer in the U.S. House of Representatives. He is a 2013 graduate of Davis High School.

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