Component 3A Module

2010

3 days Training Module on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools Developed by: JESUSITA O. COLADILLA, UPLBFI For MDGF 1656 [A comprehensive training module along with guideline for participants aiming to enhance capacity of the agricultural stakeholders to understand climate change better and provide available vulnerability and impact assessment frameworks, tools and techniques for assessing vulnerable people, crops, animal and areas to climate variability]

J.O. COLADILLA UPLBFI 10/10/2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

Component 3A – Training of Trainors on Climate Change Vulnerability and Impact Strengthening the Philippines Institutional to Adapt to Climate Change (SPICACC) Assessment Tools on Agriculture forCapacity Local Stakeholders in Benguet and Ifugao I.

Introduction The Philippines has always been frequented by climate related hazards like tropical cyclones and other extreme events like droughts and floods that hampered the health of human population; caused deaths, damaged life and properties and aggravated the difficulties among the poor people of the country. These natural hazards can be attributed to the changing climate, popularly known as “climate change”.

According to Cruz, et al (2010), climate change affects the different sectors of the community and all ecosystems from the forest down to the coastal areas which encompasses the forest, agro-forest, agricultural, industrial, residential, commercial and coastal ecosystems.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in their fourth assessment report in 2007 that archipelagic countries and small islands are the most vulnerable to climate change. The Philippines already experiences the brunt of climate change as per record of increasing frequency of disasters like drought, typhoons, massive landslides, and flooding that are observed in the last ten years. Agricultural, coastal and urban sectors are among the most affected; urban sector where poorest of the poor are mostly located and are dependent on coastal and agriculture for their food supply and the agricultural sector which is heavily dependent on climate for their production.

In the same report, IPCC projected that impacts of climate change will intensify in the years to come based from their global climate simulation under different economic scenarios. Projection shows that the Philippines will be greatly affected in all scenarios.

Vulnerability and impact assessment, therefore, is needed for better planning of adaptation strategies that will address specific sector, places and group of people.

As the most affected sector, agriculture needs to be equipped with tools and methods for better assessment of its vulnerability. Using local knowledge and available methodologies for vulnerability and impact assessment, this training of trainors was therefore conducted to capacitate the agricultural stakeholders in the province of Benguet in conducting vulnerability and impact assessment using available tools and methods suitable to the province.

Specifically, the training aim to: 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Update the stakeholders of the current development on climate change; Update the stakeholders on the available climatic and biophysical information; Provide the stakeholders with vulnerability and impact assessment tools available; Train the stakeholders in using the assessment tools appropriate to the area; and Enable the participants to conduct their own vulnerability and impact assessment.

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change (SPICACC)

Training of Trainors on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools for Agriculture Sector

COURSE MODULE OVERVIEW TIME

SUBJECT

CONTENT/PURPOSE

Day One: Understanding Climate Change Science and its Impacts, Climate Change Scenario, Responses to Climate Change, Basic Terminology and Vulnerability Assessment Registration Morning-1 1 hr and 30 mins

Welcome, Opening and Introductions

Opening Program Welcome Ceremony by Host Institution Chapter 01 of the Module Course introduction, objective of the training course, contents of the training course, methods to be applied, training materials to be used, facilitators and their role during the training, review of the logistical matters etc.

Self Introduction by all participants Sharing their expectations Question and Answer Approach: Participatory to create warm atmosphere, Ice-breaking session One presentation will be made introducing the training programme, contents and approaches

Morning-2 30 mins

Basic Climate Change Science: Global Warming, Greenhouse Gases and Consequences

Chapter 02 of the Module What is weather and climate, what is climate change, what is global warming, source of greenhouse gases, consequences of GHG concentration in the atmosphere (mainly temperature change) Objectives: At the end of this Chapter, participants should be able to: 1. Understand the basic science of climate change.

2. Assess their level of awareness with regards to the issues related to climate change Topical Outline: I. Introduction II. What is climate change and its causes?

III. Indicators of climate change

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

TIME

SUBJECT

2010

CONTENT/PURPOSE IV. V. VI.

Definition of terms Observed evidences Summary: Concluding Remarks and Take Home Messages

Approach: One Powerpoint Presentation, questions and answers, brief exercise

Tea Break and Photo Opt Morning – 3 1hr

Climate Change Vulnerability Basic Concepts

Chapter 03 of the Module Key terminologies of climate change: Impacts, vulnerability, adaptation, mitigation, risk, hazards, shock, variability, trend, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity etc.

Objectives: At the end of the chapter, the participants should be able to: 1. Articulate concepts of climate change vulnerability in the context of agriculture 2. Differentiate some methods and tools used for assessing vulnerabilities of local communities to climate change 3. Conduct a simple vulnerability assessment using a participatory method Topical Outline: I. Introduction II. Concepts of Vulnerability III. Methods and Tools for Assessing the Community Vulnerability to Climate Change IV. Some Examples of Conducting Community Vulnerability Assessment V. Concluding Remarks and Take Home Messages Approach: One Powerpoint Presentation, questions and answers

Morning – 3 1hr

Philippine Climate Change Scenarios and its Impacts to Agriculture

Chapter 04 of the Module This session will introduce the trainees with the different climate change scenarios and their consequences such as: 1. Changes in temperature (changes in land Surface Temperature, changes in Sea Surface Temperature) 2. Variation in Rainfall and 3. Ice melting and Sea level Rise Objectives: The objectives of this chapter are;

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

TIME

SUBJECT

2010

CONTENT/PURPOSE 1. To familiarize the participants with the basic concepts of Climate Change scenarios both in the international and national settings; and 2. To give the participants the implications of the Philippine climate change scenarios Topical Outline: I. Definition of Terms II. Observed Changes in the Philippineâ€&#x;s Climate A. B. C. D.

Increased in Temperature Observed Rainfall Trends Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Events Sea Level Rise

III. Projected Climate Changes in the Philippines A. Projected Increase in Temperature B. Rainfall trends C. Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Events D. Sea Level Rise IV. Implications to Agriculture V. Summary and Concluding Remarks Approach: One Powerpoint Presentation based on IPCC Assessment Report, One Case Study Presentation, questions and answers

Afternoon -1 1 hr

Lunch Break Climate Change Chapter 05 of the Module Impacts in Cordillera This will cover impacts of climate change In Cordillera Region region.

Topical Outline: I. Introduction II. Observed Impacts of Climate Change in CAR III. Current Adaptations that are practiced in the area IV. Summary and Conclusion Approach: One Powerpoint Presentation on impacts to agriculture in Cordillera region based from observed impacts in the Philippines and observed impacts in CAR region, questions and answers

Afternoon 2 1hr

FGD, KII and Formal Field Survey Outputs on CC Impacts in Benguet

Chapter 06 of the Module This will cover the results of FGD, KII and FFS conducted in Ifugao on Vulnerability assessment tools but will focus on identified impacts of CC in Ifugao in general. This will serve as venue for validation of output with the community Topical Outline:

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

TIME

SUBJECT

2010

CONTENT/PURPOSE I. II.

III. IV.

Introduction Methodologies A. Focus Group Discussion B. Key Informant Interview C. Formal Field Survey Outputs of Impact Assessment in Ifugao Take Home Messages

Approach: One PowerPoint presentation on the results of FGD and KII on climate change impacts assessment in Ifugao. Questions and answers

Tea Break Afternoon – 3 1 hr and 30 mins

Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Framework

Chapter 07 of the Module This session will cover the available and the proposed V&A framework for the Cordillera Region.

Systematic Steps for Conducting CC V&A Assessment of Agriculture using Watershed Approach I. Identification of Scope and Purpose of Assessment II. Description of People, Areas and Sectors that will be affected III. Assessment of Exposure to Climate Change IV. Determination of Areas Inherently Sensitive to Climate Change V. Assessment and Rating of Adaptive Capacity VI. Vulnerability Rating VII. Impact Assessment VIII. Identification and Assessment of Adaptation for Future Climate Changes Approach: Powerpoint presentation of the step by step process for conducting Vulnerability and impact assessment will be done.

Question and Answer as well as exercise

Day 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, Methods and Tools V&A Assessment Chapter 08 of the Module Morning – 1 Approaches, This session will present the different V and A 1hr Framework, Tools and Methods: An Overview

approaches, framework, tools and methods to conduct a V and A. Objectives: At the end of this chapter, the participants should be able to: 1. Familiarize and understand the different methods, tools and approaches in assessing the vulnerability of agriculture sector to climate change

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

TIME

SUBJECT

2010

CONTENT/PURPOSE 2. Familiarize with some of the examples of Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment using the methods, tools and approaches presented 3. Conduct a simple exercise using the V&A Assessment methods, tools and approaches presented A. Watershed Approach for Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Agriculture Sector Topical Outline: I. Introduction II. Definition of Terms III. Watershed Approach for Assessing Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change Approach: Powerpoint presentation based on FGD and KII results.

Morning 2 1 hr

Proposed Community-Based Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment Tool for the Agriculture Sector of Ifugao and Benguet

Chapter 09 of this module This session will cover different top-down and bottom up methods and approaches. Indigenous knowledge and local tools for assessment will also be presented for validation Topical Outline: I. Introduction II. Methodology III. Review of Existing Vulnerability Tools with main focus on their Feasibility on Upland Agriculture in Ifugao and Benguet Provinces IV. The Proposed Community Based CC V&A Assessment Tool for Agriculture Sector of Ifugao and Benguet Provinces V. Steps for the Conduct of Assessment 1. Organizing the Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Team 2. Study of the Area through Secondary Information 3. Planning and Preparation for the Field work 4. Site Reconnaissance 5. Description of Climate-related Hazards in the Community 6. Describe vulnerabilities and capacities of the community 7. Conduct Hazard Mapping 8. Identify and assess current adaptation measures

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

TIME

SUBJECT

2010

CONTENT/PURPOSE Approach: One Powerpoint Presentation based on IPCC Assessment Report, One bottom-up methodological Presentation and one top-down approach utilized in the country.

Morning -3 1 hr 30 min

GIS Mapping as a Tool for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Agriculture

Tea Break Chapter 10 of the module In this session, the participants will be presented with a mapping tool for assessing vulnerability of the agricultural sector of the province Objectives: At the end of this lesson, the participants should be able to: 1. Appreciate and understand the concepts and principles of GIS as tool for vulnerability and adaptation assessment in agriculture.

2. Understand the use of Global Positioning System (GPS), Remote Sensing (RS) and systems modeling as GIS allied in mapping.

3. Understand the data requirements for assessing the vulnerability of agriculture sector 4. Perform a simple GIS overlay procedure to generate insights on vulnerable population and resources Topical Outline: I. Introduction to GIS as a technology and as a science II. GIS Allied Technologies A. Global Positioning System B. Remote Sensing C. Cartographic and Dynamic Systems Modeling III. GIS and its application to agriculture IV. Data, information and databases for vulnerability assessment V. Conducting a GIS Mapping: Some Examples VI. Summary and Conclusion Approach: Powerpoint presentation, question and answer and group exercise

Afternoon 1 1 hr.

Tools for SocioEconomic and Biophysical Characterization

Lunch Break Chapter 11 of this module This session will present the different tools for socioeconomic and bio-physical characterization.

Objectives: The chapter aims to: 1. Provide and familiarize participants with the tools and methods for the socio-economic and biophysical characterization useful for the conduct of V&A assessment in their area

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

TIME

SUBJECT

2010

CONTENT/PURPOSE 2. Conduct a simple exercise on characterization of their areas Topical Outline: I. Introduction II. Focus Group Discussion (FGD) III. Key Informant Interview IV. Historical Time Frame V. Conducting a Socio-economic and biophysical characterization: Some Examples VI. Summary and Conclusion

Afternoon 2 1 hr

Updated socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of Benguet province

Afternoon 2 3 hrs

Exercises on timeline, historical, spot mapping and other approaches

Approach: PowerPoint presentation, question and answer and group exercises Chapter 12 of this module This portion will present the socio-economic and biophysical characteristic of the province to enable the participants to understand their environment and to have enough information for assessment and planning This session will use different exercises for analyzing community level vulnerabilities, and their adaptation needs to deal with adverse impacts of present and future climate. Exercises will allow participants to think from their own context (country, region, sector, vulnerable groups) Approach: Breakout groups, facilitated by exercise using examples and defined format, questions and answers

Day 3- Group exercises Hands-on Exercise Output Presentations Approach: Presentation from the Breakout groups, questions and answers Concluding Session This session will capture feedback and finally conclude the training session.

Approach: Participatory, Feedback form will be used for future improvement, concluding remark from the host institution.

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

CHAPTER 1: Training Overview I.

Training Overview This training program for LGUs, MAOs and agricultural technicians of the Cordillera Region is part of the Outcome 3.1 of the project entitled “Strengthening the Philippines Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change (SPICACC)”. This specific training is under the project activity “Capacity building on vulnerability and impact assessment tool and monitoring and evaluation”. It was commissioned by the Department of Agriculture (DA) to the UPLB Foundation Incorporated (UPLBFI).

This one-week training was divided into two parts: a) Trainor‟s training on vulnerability and impact assessment tools on agriculture and b) training of trainors on monitoring and evaluation.

II.

Objective of the Training This 3-day Training on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Tools for Ifugao and Benguet is designed to capacitate the local stakeholders (LGUs, farmers and MAO) in conducting vulnerability and impact assessment using available tools and methods suitable to the province of Benguet and Ifugao.

Specifically, the training aims to: • Update the stakeholders on climate change issues; • Update the stakeholders on the available climatic and biophysical information; • Provide the stakeholders with vulnerability and impact assessment tools available; • Train the stakeholders in using the assessment tools appropriate to the area; and • Enable the participants to conduct their own vulnerability and impact assessment.

III.

PROGRAM OF ACTIVITIES The training topics was divided into five parts: a) discussion on basic climate change science, b) discussion on impacts of climate change in agriculture at the global, national and regional level, c) vulnerability to climate change, d) available tools and methods for vulnerability and impact assessment and e) simple step by step methods in conducting vulnerability and impact assessment.

The training activities will be done interactively, participants can ask question during the lecture and vice versa. Exercises will also be provided for better appreciation of the lectures. Attached below is the program of activities for reference of participants.

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

Training of Trainors on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools DATE/TIME Day 1 –

TOPIC

Understanding Climate Change Science, Climate Change Scenario, Impacts Of Climate Change, Vulnerability And Impact Assessment Framework OPENING PROGRAM Registration Opening Ceremonies National Anthem Invocation Welcome/Opening remarks Introduction of participants Training overview, expected outputs and evaluation methods Climate Change Science COFFEE BREAK AND PHOTO OPT Climate Change Vulnerability Basic Concepts

8:00 – 9:00

9:00-10:00 10:00-10:30 10:30-11:00

12:00 - 1:00

Philippine Climate Change Scenarios and its Impacts to Agriculture LUNCH BREAK

1:00 - 2:00

Climate Change Impacts in Cordillera Region

2:00 – 3:00

FGD, KII and Formal Field Survey Outputs on CC Impacts in Ifugao/Benguet COFFEE BREAK

11:00-12:00

3:00 – 3:15 3:15 – 5:00 Day 2 –

RESOURCE PERSON

Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Framework

Secretariat c/o Host Institution

Dr. J.O. Coladilla Dr. J.O. Coladilla

Dr. J.O. Coladilla Dr. J.O. Coladilla

SPICACC-Cordillera SPICACC-Cordillera

Dr. J.O. Coladilla

Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Methods/Tools

8:00-9:00

V&A Assessment Approaches, Framework, Tools and Methods: An Overview

Dr. J.N. Garcia

9:00-10:00

Proposed community-based vulnerability and impact assessment tools

Drs. A.Wagan/J.N. Garcia

10:00 – 10:15

COFFEE BREAK

10:15 – 12:00

Updated Socio-economic and Bio-physical Characteristics of Ifugao/Benguet

12:00 – 1:00

LUNCH BREAK

1:00 - 3:00 3:00 -3:15 3:15 – 5:00

GIS Mapping as a Tool for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment to Impacts of Climate Change COFFEE BREAK Exercises on timeline, historical, spot mapping and other tools and approaches

SPICACC-Cordillera

Prof. D. K. Vergara

Participants

Day 3 - Conduct of Vulnerability and Impact Assessment 8:00-12:00

Guided Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Exercise and Output Presentation

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

IV.

2010

EXPECTED OUTPUT After the training, participants are expected to a) come-up a list of identified agricultural commodities, areas and group of people that are affected by climate change in the last 10 years, b) identify the vulnerable groups, sectors, places that are considered vulnerable to climate change based on its bio-physical characteristics, c) present a spot map of vulnerable areas, group of people in their community and d) identify from the list of tools and methods which are acceptable and will be useful to their province.

V.

TRAINING LOGISTICS Food and accommodation as well as transportation expenses of the participants will be provided by the project. Participants will be accommodated in the place provided by the host institution. Food will be served in the training venue. Transportation expenses will be reimbursed by the secretariat after the last session.

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

CHAPTER 2. Basic Climate Change Science I.

Topic Overview This chapter basically aims to introduce the basic climate change science to the participants, discuss the contributing factors to the observed climate change and serves as venue to discuss the issues further, as well as assess the level of knowledge of the participants on the basics of climate change. This will be done by discussing the basic meteorology and climatology concepts, the observed climatic trends, and the human contribution to the observed climatic changes.

At the end of the lecture, participants are expected to a) understand the basic science of climate change, b) be able to assess their contribution to the changing climatic condition, and c) be aware of the needs to act to minimize impacts of CC to them.

Powerpoint presentation of the topic following the outline below will be done to meet the objective indicated above: Topical Outline: VII. VIII. IX. X. XI. XII.

II.

Introduction What is climate change and its causes?

Indicators of climate change Definition of terms Observed evidences Summary

What is Climate Change and it’s Causes?

Climate change or the variation in Earthâ€&#x;s global climate is one of the serious problems that the human being confronts nowadays. Climate change refers to the gradual change in the global temperature caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Meanwhile, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) defines climate change as a change attributed directly or indirectly to human activities that alter the composition of the atmosphere.

Climate change is a natural phenomenon caused by external forces and human activities that modify ecological system. Human activities contributed in the increase

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

of greenhouse gasses concentration in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gasses include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides, sulfur oxides, lead, carbon monoxide, chlorofluorocarbons and dioxin. These are naturally occurring gasses in the atmosphere serving as thin layer that absorb thermal radiation emitted and reflected by the earth‟s surface. Greenhouse gases act much like a glass which allows the entry of incoming solar radiations but absorb the infrared heat of the long wave radiations and reflect these back to the earth, causing an increase in air temperature (Figure 1). Without these gases, heat would escape back into space and Earth‟s average temperature would be about 16 ºC colder. Because of how they warm our world, these gases are referred to as greenhouse gases. Over time, however, these are enhanced and accumulate as human activities such as deforestation, combustion of fossil fuels, agriculture development, and rapid population growth, in line with industrial revolution increases. Estimated percentage contribution of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is shown in Table 1 below. It can be noted that carbon dioxide has the highest percent contribution in greenhouse gases followed by methane.

Source:

Figure 1. Illustration of greenhouse effect.

Table 1. Greenhouse gases contribution in the atmosphere.

Greenhouse Gases

Percent Contribution

Carbon Dioxide (CO2 )

64

Methane (CH4)

19

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

10

Nitrous Oxide (N2 O)

5.7

Others

1.3

Total

100

Source: The UNFCC claimed that the currently observed climate change is anthropogenic.

This means that human activities highly contributed in the increase of greenhouse

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

gases in the atmosphere through modification of the natural ecological systems in the name of development. Among the human activities that contributed in the releases of GHG are land use change, use of heat and electricity, agriculture and transportation. Figure 2 below shows the percentage contribution of human activities to in GHGs.

Figure 2. Percentage contribution of human activities to the increasing GHGs.

Source:

III.

Indicators of Climate Change In the past several decades, various scientists observed increase in global mean surface temperature along with rise in global sea level and decrease in Northern Hemisphere snow cover (Figure 3). In 2007 assessment, IPCC reported that from the 1981 to 2000 instrumental record of temperature, the warmest decade was the 1990s with the year 1998 as the warmest year. They have also reported that there was an increase of about 0.6°C in the global average surface temperature over the 20th century. During the same period, the global average sea level had rose by 0.1 to 0.2 meters; and global rainfall by 0.2% to 0.3% per decade over the tropical (10°N to 10°S) land areas.

IPCC (2004) reported that increase in global temperature over long periods of time lead to a number of climatic changes such as arctic sea ice melt which could lead to sea level rise, sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) resulting to hydrologic cycle acceleration which could lead to increased rainfall intensity and flooding or to droughts and water shortages.

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

Figure 3. Observed trends in global temperature, sea level and snow cover.

Note:

IV.

Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All differences are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal averaged values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c).

Source: IPCC (2007)

Definition of Terms For better discussion and understanding of climate change concepts, terminologies commonly used in the discussions are presented below.

Basic climatology and meteorological concepts: Climate describes the total of all weather occurring over a period of years in a given place. e.g. in Los BaĂąos, it is generally wet during the months of June to August, relatively dry during the months of September to January and dry during the months of February to May. Climate variability refers to long term seasonal variability. e.g. extended dry season or extended wet season

Weather refers to what is happening in a given place at a given time. It varies from places to places and from minute to minute. e.g. typhoon in Bicol now but not in Mindanao.

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

Weather variability refers to short term variability: daily or hourly variability. e.g. sunny morning followed by heavy rain in the afternoon.

Terms related to climate variability: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to the coherent and year-to-year variations in sea- surface temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of sea-surface temperatures along the west coast of tropical South America La Niña refers to the abnormal cooling in the east central equatorial pacific Southern Oscillation refers to the see-saw pattern of reversing surface air pressure between the eastern and western tropical pacific

V.

Observed evidences Present slides of observed El Nino, La Nina, typhoon, flooding, landslides events: international, national and local events, Short discussion/open forum on observed evidences in their locality.

VI.

Summary and take home message Climate change is real, there are observed evidences of weather and climate variability. We are part of the problem, and we will also be affected and now being affected but who are most affected? And how they can be helped?

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

CHAPTER 3. Climate Change Vulnerability Basic Concepts I.

Introduction This part will discuss the key terminologies of climate change: CC Impacts, vulnerability, adaptation, mitigation, risk, hazards, shock, variability, trend, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

The objective of this Chapter is to familiarize the participants to the basic concepts related to vulnerability and impact assessment that at the end of the presentation the participants should be able to: 1. Articulate concepts of climate change vulnerability in the context of agriculture 2. Differentiate some methods and tools used for assessing vulnerabilities of local communities to climate change 3. Conduct a simple vulnerability assessment using a participatory method

Topical Outline: I. II. III. IV. V.

Introduction Concepts of Vulnerability Methods and Tools for Assessing the Community Vulnerability to Climate Change Some Examples of Conducting Community Vulnerability Assessment Concluding Remarks and Take Home Messages

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

II.

2010

Concept of Climate Change Vulnerability Vulnerability to climate change as “the degree which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.�

Meanwhile, Smit et al (2006) defined vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. IPCC (2007) mentioned that vulnerability of a system is influenced by a) development pathway; b) physical exposures; c) the distribution of resources d) prior stresses; and e) social government institutions.

Exposure basically refers to the components of the system of analysis (i.e. individual/households and the community and other component of the area (biophysical). It could also refer to the natural hazards in present in the area in relation to climate changes and variability. On the other hand, Sensitivity is the overall characteristics of the human and environmental systems.

This can be expressed in terms of geography and demography. Lastly, Adaptive capacity refers to the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and changes, and include adjustments in both behavior and in resources and technologies.

Risk is defined as the likelihood of harm and expected loss (Manila Observatory). It is also refers to the average loss all over possible actions that may be taken. In agricultural production, risk arises due to uncertainty on the future consequences of an action.

Hazard refers to the physical impacts of disturbance or damaging climatic events.

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

CHAPTER 4. The Philippine Climate Change Scenarios and its Impacts to Agriculture Objective: The chapter aims to give the participants an overview of the Philippine climate baseline and future scenario. This portion basically focuses the discussion on the observed trends of in the Philippine climate to include temperature, precipitation, frequency and intensity of extreme events and sea level rise and the projections of the mentioned climate parameters.

The changes in the climatic condition in the Philippines have been projected using PRECIS which stands for Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies developed by the Hadley Center. The primary objective of the PRECIS is to produce higher resolution climate information from a much coarser climate resolution called General Circulation Model (GCM). The projection made was based from the special reports of emission scenarios (IPCC, 2007).

Observed Increase in Temperature in the Philippines IPCC (2007) reported that since 1971, the Philippines‟ mean, minimum and maximum temperatures have increased 0.14 °C per decade. Another study by Tibig (2004) and Manton et al (2001) reveals that there are departures from the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures in recent years of 0.61 °C, 0.34 °C and 0.89°C respectively from 1961-1990 normal values which indicates that the temperature over the country increased. Likewise, it was noted that the frequency of hot nights and days has also increased while the no. of cold days and nights decreased.

Projected Temperature Rise The temperature in the Philippines is projected to increase by 1.2-3.9 °C in 2080. (Hulme and Sheard, 2009 as cited in ADB, 2009).

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

Observed Rainfall Trends The decreasing mean annual rainfall and the number of rainy days in the Philippines were noted since 1960. Onset of rainy season became variable same as the other regions in Southeast Asia. The trend observed was decreasing rainfall in Luzon and parts of Mindanao and increasing precipitation in the central and western part of the country (Anglo, 2006 as cited in ADB, 2009).

Projected Changes in Precipitation The rainfall in the Philippines will be highly variable as influenced by seasonal changes and climate extremes like ENSO and will be in higher intensity.

Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Events The most common manifestation of climate change in the Philippines is the occurrence of Tropical Cyclones (TC). On the average, 20 TC in a year cross the Philippines with varying intensity and interval. These TCs are mostly originating from the Pacific. According to Amadore (2005), the TC is accompanied by continual heavy rains that caused massive landslides and flash floods killing people and destroying properties as well as the environment. Some recent examples include Typhoons Ondoy (Ketsana) and Pepeng (Pharma). The intensity and frequency of El Niño becomes more prevailing.

Projected Frequency and Variability Extremes Events IPCC (2007) projects a continuous increase intensity and variability in precipitation accompanied with strong winds. Likewise, an increase of 10-20% in tropical cyclones is also projected due to increase in sea surface temperature. The increase in temperature also amplifies the storm surge heights which eventually resulted to stronger winds.

Observe Sea Level Rise The Philippines is an archipelagic country with 7, 107 islands and has a coastline which extends over 34, 000 km. Studies showed that there is a slight upward trend in the mean sea level.

Manila as an example, exhibited an increase in sea level presumably due to combined effect of local subsidence and global sea level rise (Perez, 1999, Hulme and Sheard 1999).

Projected Sea Level Rise According to IPCC (2007) the sea level will continue to rise with a rate 1.3±0.7 mm per year over the next several decades. Based from the simulation done by Hulme and Sheard (1999) the mean sea level in the Philippines will rise up to 0.19-1.4 meters by 2080 relative to the mean sea level during 1961-1990.

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

Figure 2. Interrelationship of Climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Source: IPCC, 2007

Climate change affects the different sectors of the community from the forest ecosystems down to the coastal area (Figure 3). Because of the archipelagic and mountainous feature of the Philippines and highly depending on the agriculture and natural resources as source of food, our country is one of the most vulnerable places to climate change (IPCC, 2007). According to IPCC (2007), the fishing and farming communities in the developing countries including the Philippines will suffer from the worst impacts of climate change including more frequent droughts and floods, more crop damage and falling yields, food and water shortages and more diseases.

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

Figure 3. Climate change as it impacts different sectors on the community particularly agriculture.

Major Impacts of Climate Change in Agriculture in the Philippines Agriculture is one of the major sources of food and employment in the country. According to NSO (2008) the agriculture and fisheries constituted the 15% of the country‟s domestic products which is equivalent to PhP 1.1 trillion. Meanwhile the 34% of the total number of employed Filipino is in the agriculture (NSO, 2009). The effects of climate change on the production and yield of agricultural crops pose a serious and alarming threat to food security in the country.

Climate change caused significant changes in the temperature, rainfall, frequency and intensity of extreme events which affect the performances of the agricultural crops and other agricultural products.

Increase in Temperature The temperature and rainfall are the major factors that affect the agricultural production in the Philippines. Increase in temperature intensifies the evapotranspiration, which exacerbate the stress in crops, particularly in the areas that the water is limiting. The study of Peng et al, (2004) of IRRI reveals that there is a decrease in rice yield by 10% for every 1°C increase in temperature. Lansigan et al (2007) shows also that there is a reduction in corn and rice production and yield when there is increase in temperature (Figure 4). Figure 4 shows that when there is a high increase in temperature, there is corresponding loss or decrease in rice and corn production. It is noticeable that the highest decrease in rice production is on 1982-1983 and

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

1997-1998 which are El Niño years. Another study of Lansigan (2000) reveals that increasing temperature has direct impacts on the yield of other agricultural crops using a simulation model.

Figure 5 shows the corresponding yield reduction of corn, tomato, sugarcane and peanut for every 1 °C increase in temperature.

16.00

Production (Million MT)

14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Year Rice Production

Corn Production

Figure 4. Rice and Corn Production as affected by increase in temperature.

Source: Lansigan et al, 2007

Figure 5. Effects of increasing temperature on other agricultural crops in three different provinces.

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

Meanwhile, the increase in temperature and humidity significantly reduce feed intake and body energy reserve, and consequently growth and reproductive performance of livestock.

For instance the study of Vega et al, (2010) on swine, reveals that increase in ambient temperature resulted to reduction in the number of pigs produced by 33% (from 18 to 12 pigs produced per sow per year). Similarly, number of piglets weaned per sow per year was also reduced by 26% (19 to 14 piglets) which shows also shows 10% increase in piglets‟ mortality

a

25

PWM (%)

20

a ab ab ab

ab ab

x b

b

15

b

b

b

xy

10 5

yy y

y y y

c

y y

y y

0

20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10

PWSY (number)

prior to weaning (Figure 6).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 Months Figure 6. Effects of increasing temperature on livestock production.

Increased Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Events The Philippines is always hit by many typhoons in a year and intensified ENSO which significantly affects the agricultural production. The current cropping pattern of the local farmers has been altered due to erratic pattern changes of precipitation. The farmers who depend on rainfall as source of their water supply totally gave up on their farms due to water shortage.

During El Niño year, the occurrence of pests and diseases become more frequent making the crops more vulnerable to attacks of such. Meanwhile, during the La Niña period, the rain associated with this phenomenon caused massive surface runoff and severe soil erosion causing loss of soil fertility and eventually reduction in the crop yield of the farmers.

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

The estimated damage caused by the intensified tropical cyclones to the agricultural crops is about 3 billion pesos. Also, the decline in gross value added in four major crops: rice, maize, sugarcane and coconut was also noted as accompanied by the damages caused by the extreme events in the country.

Table 1. Summary of Observed Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture Climate Change Observed Impacts Increasing temperature - Decreased crop yields due to heat stress - Increased livestock Mortality - Increased outbreaks of pests and diseases Variability and increase in intensity of - Death of livestock precipitation and extreme climate related - Affect current cropping pattern, land hazards preparation, crop growing season and seed sowing - Increased surface runoff and soil erosion caused soil fertility loss and consequently crop yield Sea Level Rise - Loss of land suitable for cultivation due to advancing sea level - Salinization or irrigation water which eventually affect crop yields

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

CHAPTER 5. Climate Change Impacts in the Cordillera (Benguet and Ifugao) Objective: The section will provide the participants awareness on the observed impacts of climate change specifically on the agriculture sector. This will also create an avenue to discuss the observed impacts of CC in Ifugao and Benguet.

Observed Changes in Climate of Benguet and Ifugao Based from the FGD and KII conducted in both provinces the following observation are noted on the changing climate in the areas.

Observed changes on climate of Ifugao The people in the area claimed that there is variability in the rainfall, daily temperature aberrations, typhoon occurrence and occurrence of La NiĂąa and El NiĂąo events. The rainfall variability in the area is further characterized by early and late onset of rainfall, prolonged rainfall, too much amount of rainfall during rainy season and spontaneous coming of rains during dry season. Meanwhile, a temperature aberration is described as wide variation in daily temperature. They claimed that the hot nights become hotter during summer time and cool nights become cooler. Typhoons become more frequent with increased intensity.

Observed change on climate of Benguet Observed changes in climatic conditions in Benguet include the increasing frequency and intensity of typhoons, extreme variability in temperature as they experienced shortened cold months and prolonged dry season.

Responses to Climate Change The two pronged approach to deal with climate change consists of Mitigation and Adaptation. Mitigation is defined as the anthropogenic interventions taken to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gasses (IPCC, 2001). On the other hand, adaptation refers to the changes in the processes, practices and structures undertaken to moderate the potential damage associated with climate change. (Burton et al, 2001). It also defined as the adjustments

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

made to reduce the vulnerability or enhance resilience of a particular group of people or community. Adaptation can be classified as autonomous and planned or policy driven. The former are actions taken in reaction to actual or expected climate change without policy intervention while the latter are the adaptations as a result of deliberate policy decisions.

Adaptation can also be reactive and proactive. Reactive are the adaptations taken in response to actual climate change impacts while proactive are the actions taken to anticipate the potential impacts of climate change (UNFCCC, 2007). Figure 1 shows the relationship of the two climate change responses.

Observed Impacts of Climate Change and Variability in the Provinces of Ifugao and Benguet (Generated from the FGD and Participatory Workshop)

Effects of Changing Climate on Agriculture in Ifugao The data on effects of climate change on agriculture are based on the participants‟ observations and experiences, the changes in climatic conditions in the area as described above, negatively affects their agriculture. Some of the cited effects include:     

Low rice yield due to water shortage caused by increased temperature or destroyed crops due to flooding of rice fields; Increased pests population specifically whorl maggot in rice, aphids in beans and “Tanga” in sweet potato due to either rise in temperatures; High mortality rate in poultry (chicken) due to hot weather and sporadic rains Fish kills (tilapia in ponds) due to cold weather Very poor growth of vegetables due to daily temperature aberrations (i.e. too hot in the morning and too cold in the evening);

Interestingly, farmers‟ observations, experiences and own knowledge of the biophysical characteristics of their farms, enable them to further describe the effects of climate change based on farm location and orientation as follows: 

Rice terraces in higher elevations are more affected by heavy rains. Because these farms are closer to the water source, too much amount of rain causes overflow thus destroying dikes, flooding rice fields and eroding soils. In situations where there is overflow, rice terraces in lower elevations also get flooded eventually destroying the crop.



During extended dry months, insufficient water supply affects more the rice terraces in lower elevations. Water flows through the rice terraces located in higher elevations only which are closer to the water source.



As regards to temperature effects, rice planted in terraces in higher elevations is cited to be more affected by very low temperatures. On the other hand, rice

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

terraces located in lower elevations were observed to be affected more by extremely high temperatures, especially during dry months.

-

In the case of typhoon occurrence, less damage were experienced in farms with surrounding natural barriers. (Some stated it as depending on farm orientation).

Impacts of climate variability and extremes on local communities in Benguet The following is the discussion on the impacts of the climate variability and extreme on local communities. It is very notable in the discussion the knowledge and perceptions of the participants on the interactions of the different component of the environment. For example, it is also clear to them that water shortage could be attributed to several factors such as removal of vegetation or deforestation, change in land use and population increase. It could be observed that each of factors cited is directly related to each other.

The participants therefore claim that one of the major impacts of climate variability to them is the water shortage. This is expected considering that the participants are farmers who relied on irrigation to supply water requirements of their farms. Some claims that because of the water shortage, completion between household and irrigation water requirements had become very contentious as distribution of water has become an issue. While they attributed the water shortage to climate variability, they also emphasized that deforestation due to land use conversion should also be cited. The need for new areas for farming was also a result of the growing population of the community.

Another impact of the climate variability is the confusion on the timing of planting as well as in the selection of crops. A wrong timing or decision on what crops to plant would be devastating to the farm productivity and would therefore adversely decrease farmers income. This they attribute to the erratic weather pattern that has become more pronounce especially during the last decade.

Because of the water shortage complemented with the high probability of wrong timing of planting or choice of crops contributed to the remarkable decrease in the agricultural productivity. The familyâ€&#x;s health and nutrition would be compromised as a result they will be vulnerable to some diseases especially cold and coughs.

Some participants also attributed army worm infestation to climate change which they believe provided the necessary environment for the growth and proliferation of army worms.

Finally, and most importantly, they cited land slide and flooding and heavy soil erosion as most devastating impact of the climate change. These had become very pronounce even during heavy rains only. According to them, landslides and floods block the roads and affected transport of their farm products depressing farm gate prices.

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

CHAPTER 6. Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Framework, Tools and Methods Objective: This chapter aims to provide the participants different tools and methods that can be use for assessing the vulnerability and adaptation of Ifugao and Benguet.

I.

Introduction Aside from climate changes, continues destruction and loss of the forest resources in the Philippines is also one of the serious issues that the country is now facing. These destruction and losses are caused by the illegal logging, land uses conversation, shifting cultivation, weak governance and natural causes such as forest fires and spread of dangerous pests and diseases. Moreover, the rapid growth in human population, globalization and industrialization aggravated further the loss of forest resources.

Meanwhile, the Philippine lands including agricultural areas are mostly located in the watershed areas. These watersheds are designated with many uses such as provider of energy both hydro electric and geothermal energy, source of domestic, commercial and industrial water and many more. Watersheds are very significant to apprehend both the economic and environmental sustainability. Unfortunately, these watersheds are continuously being destructed due to the causes mentioned earlier. The threats of climate change such as rain-induced landslides, floods and wild forest fires aggravated the destruction of watershed resources in the country. Because of these scenarios, it is deem necessary to assess the vulnerabilities of such watershed areas to identify and implement the necessary adaptations to reduce if not totally prevent the potential impacts of climate change both on the human and natural system.

Watershed and ecosystem approach will be used as the key physical framework in climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment of agriculture. This approach is deemed appropriate for the V&A assessment of agriculture since water from the watersheds support almost all of the ecosystems in the area from forests ecosystems to the agricultural lands and finally the marine ecosystems. The sustainability of the agriculture highly depends on the integrity of the watersheds. Agriculture depends on the watersheds for its water supply.

The rapid population growth and depletion of watershed resources including water put pressures on the agricultural areas and other livelihood and eventually food security and

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

finally human system. Other drivers such as urbanization and conversion of prime agricultural land areas to residential also threaten the crop production in the country.

The vulnerability and adaptation assessment of agriculture sector will use the framework below (Figure 5). The details of each step are discussed in the next section.

Step 1. Identification and Definition of Scope and Purpose of Assessment

Step 8. Identification of Adaptation for Future Climate Changes

Step 2. Description of people, areas and sectors that will be affected

Step 3. Assessment of Exposure to Climate

Step 7. Impact Assessment

Step 6. Vulnerability Rating

Step 4. Determination of areas inherently sensitive to

Step 5. Assessment and rating of Adaptive Capacity

climate change

Figure 1. Systematic Steps for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Agriculture

Details of Systematic Steps for Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (Adapted from UPLB-MDGF Project)

Step 1. Identification and Definition of Scope and Purpose of Assessment Climate change exerts increased pressure on land and water resources which alter the state or hydrology of the watershed, and also bring about changes on agricultural production systems in terms of shifts in rainfall patterns, reduced crop yields, and limiting productive land areas due to floods and droughts. Hence, it is deemed necessary to identify and define prudently the focus of the assessment giving more attention on the areas that would likely be affected by the climate change. Some of these are:   

Upland Agricultural Lands Low Land Prime Agricultural Lands Rain-fed and Irrigated Agricultural Lands

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools  

2010

Agroforestry Farms Plantation Crops

The methods useful for this activity include Focus Group Discussion (FGD), Key Informant Interview (KII). Discussions with the stakeholders about the past disaster events are common source of information about the likely areas and people that will be affected by future climate related extreme events. Review of documents and records of past disasters at the Office of Civil Defense, municipal disaster coordinating committee, MSWD, Philippine National Red Cross, Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) and NCSB for damages to crops and livelihood, will be helpful in identifying those areas that are likely to be affected by future climate related disasters and extreme events.

Step 2. Description of people, areas and sectors that will be affected People, areas and sectors that will be affected by climate change based from the scope of assessment in step need to be identified.

Establishment of baseline information and assessment on the impacts of climate change to the identified scope is important activity. Records and documents on the impacts of climate change can be gathered in the form of primary and secondary sources. Methods that can be used in gathering primary records are FGD, KII and participatory workshops while secondary data can be collected from the records and documents of DENR, DA, BAS NCSB and LGUs. Activities under this step include the biophysical and socio-economic characterization of the people, areas and the sectors that will be affected based from the data gathered.

Step 3. Assessment of Exposure to Climate Basically, the input for this activity is the output of the previous step. Using the characterization made from the previous step, the past and future (i.e. 2020, 2050 and 2080 time slices) climate risks and the exposure of the people, areas and sectors identified and defined will be assessed.

Climate change scenarios downscaled for the specific places will be utilized for the assessment purpose. SUCs, local communities, LGUs, NGOs and other stakeholders will be involved in the assessment process. The Maps of Areas exposed to climate change will be generated following the steps: a. The projected increase in rainfall in the future will likely enhance the flood related risk in the future. Future flood hazard maps and rain-induced landslide hazard maps can be developed by overlaying existing flood risk map with the projected rainfall change map for year say 2020 and 2050. The existing flood hazard map developed by the MGB of DENR will be adjusted by overlaying it with slope map to mask out (exclude) areas with slope greater than 30% and away from streams

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

as flood prone areas. The future flood and landslide hazard maps can be classified using the scheme in the table below.

Percent Rainfall Change (2020; 2050)

Existing Flood Risk Low

Moderate

High

<5%

Low

Moderate

High

5-10%

Moderate

High

Very High

>10%

High

Very High

Extremely High

b. Future drought risk map can be developed based on projected rainfall and temperature change in 2020, 2050 and will be calibrated by overlaying the future drought risk map with existing drought risk map.

Future Drought Risk is

If Rainfall Change (%) is

And Temperature Change (%) is

Moderate

<5

<1

High

<5

1-2

High

<5

>2

Low

5-10

<1

Moderate

5-10

1-2

High

5-10

>2

Low

>10

<1; 1-2

Moderate

>10

>2

Calibrated Future Drought Risk

Existing Drought Risk High

Low

Moderate

Low

Low

Moderate

High

Moderate

Moderate

High

Very High

High

High

Very High

Extremely

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

High

c. Map of sensitive areas due to topography will be overlaid with climate hazard maps to determine the levels of exposure of sensitive areas due to climate hazards as illustrated in the Table below.

Sensitive Areas due to Topography

Risk Category (flood, landslide and drought) Low

Moderate

High

Low

Low

Moderate

High

Moderate

Moderate

High

Very High

High

High

Very High

Extremely High

Step 4. Determination of Areas Inherently Sensitive to Climate Change Drivers of change exert increased pressure on land and water resources which alter the state or hydrology of the watershed, and also bring about changes on agricultural production systems in terms of shifts in rainfall patterns, reduced crop yields, and limiting productive land areas due to floods and droughts. Critical evaluation of these drivers of change is important to determine the focus or priority, and also to determine the data and information needed to do the analysis. In assessing vulnerability of agricultural crop production systems to climate change temperature increase, shifts in rainfall patterns, typhoons, droughts, etc. are important factors to consider. It should be noted that climate risks and hazards vary from one location to another. Some areas are more prone to droughts than to floods considering their environmental conditions and geographical locations. These risks can be quantified in terms of probabilities of occurrence but can also be simplified qualitatively to „low‟ risk, „medium‟ risk, and „high‟ risk. Identification of sources of climate risks can be facilitated with the use of available data and information such as maps of frequencies of occurrence of extreme climate events, typhoons, floods, droughts, etc. that adversely affect crop production systems.

Step 5. Assessment and Rating of Adaptive Capacity This activity also involves the determination of climate change adaptation (CCA) measures, and innovations good practices (GPs) to enhance climate resilience in agricultural production system. This may also include indigenous knowledge of forecasting seasonal climate for the next cropping season, determination of best planting dates, scheduling of activities such as irrigation, and efficient water management schemes. Good adaptation measures may also be practiced in the choice of crops to be planted, crop rotation, and planting of stress-resistant

3 Day Trainorsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

varieties of crops. Best practices may have evolved based on traditional knowledge and recent innovations based on scientific advances.

The suite of good practices and adaptation measures need to be evaluated in terms of a set of criteria specified by the stakeholders who may include effectiveness and impacts in reducing adverse consequences, economic efficiency, social acceptability, environmental sustainability, and scientific soundness.

Inventory and assessment of CCA measures and GPs may be conducted through focused group discussions (FGDs), key informant interviews (KIIs), and surveys in the farm communities. The list of options and GPs may be assessed, prioritized and validated at different levels, namely, from farm or barangay level up to LGU levels (municipal or provincial as the case may be). Features, properties, and requirements of these CCA measures and GPs should be properly documented.

Step 6. Vulnerability Rating The vulnerability rating will follow after the vulnerability assessment to determine the priority areas defending on the degree of vulnerability of the people, areas and sectors under assessment. The vulnerability of agricultural crops to climate change can be evaluated by assessing its effects on crop productivity, area planted to the crops, and economic returns at the farm and area (e.g. community, municipal, provincial) levels. Vulnerability of crop production to climate variability can also be determined by evaluating the impacts on area planted or harvested. The analysis can be based on available historical records from government agencies (e.g. DA-BAS), and LGUs. Local information may also be obtained from the MAOs, NGOs working in the farm communities as well farmer leaders, and other key informants. Data and information can be collected by various means such as FGD, KII, and formal surveys.

The most recent information on risks and hazards associated with climate change such as temperature increase, shifts in rainfall patterns, typhoons, droughts, etc. in the Philippines have been published in the literature. However, this information available in terms of maps have to be downscaled to specific locations (e.g. province, district, or even municipality) to make them more useful. In the absence of location-specific information, threshold values may be estimated and applied to the particular areas. For crops, yield or production losses may be estimated either separately by type of climate-related risks, or combined analysis by considering the effects and impacts of climate risks simultaneously. Evaluation can be done by barangay or any land evaluation unit (LEU) in the municipality, which can then be consolidated to come up with estimates for the LGUs.

Step 7. Impact Assessment There are three approaches that can be used in evaluating the impacts of climate change on agriculture, namely: empirical, simulation and using threshold values. Empirical

2010

3 Day Trainorsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

approach utilizes historical data available on crop damages/losses due to climate change as basis while simulation approach utilized process-based model under different situations. In the absence of models, threshold level can be used based from expert judgment. The potential impacts on crop yields can be evaluated using process-based crop simulation models (e.g.

DSSAT models for many different crops, ORYZA for rice, etc.). However, these models are data-intensive requiring location-specific data on daily weather records (e.g. rainfall, temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, etc.), soils data (soil types, soil moisture content, texture, etc.), variety-specific crop genetic coefficients (e.g. photosynthetic efficiency), and cultural management practices. While data on variety-specific crop genetic coefficients are available for only a few crops and local cultivars, they have yet to be generated for many local varieties of major crops before these process-based crop models can be used. In case of unavailability of needed input data for the models, threshold values generated from scientific studies and simulation analysis can be used to assess potential yield losses due to climate change. For example, recent studies have shown that a 1oC increase in temperature in the Philippines will result to about 8-14% loss in rice yield during the dry season based on simulation using IR-64 and IR-72 rice varieties. For rice crop, projected temperature beyond 36oC will already induced spikelet sterility resulting to reduced crop yield. Similarly, warming by 0.5 to 1.5°C could decrease corn yield potential by about 2 to 5% based on the evaluation using the local IPB 911 variety. Threshold values for other crops have to be determined from the published studies or gray literature, or even from experts or specialists for specific crops.

The effects and impacts of climate risks on crop production vary depending on the stages of plant growth and development (i.e. vegetative stage, reproductive stage, and ripening stage).

Crop will incur yield loss depending on when the climate hazard occurs relative to crop growth stage. The following yield loss or crop damage coefficients from the Department of Agriculture (DA) (Table 2.3) may be used to estimate yield losses for rice due to floods, droughts, and typhoons with strong winds (DA , 2009).

Table __. Rice yield reduction coefficients due to drought (Source: DA, 2009).

Period of Stress

% Yield Loss

Early vegetative stage (Transplanting to tillering)

30-50

Early vegetative stage to reproductive stage (Transplanting to panicle initiation)

60-75

Early vegetative stage to reproductive stage (Transplanting to heading)

65-70

Maximum vegetative to reproductive stage (Maximum tillering to heading)

45-50

Reproductive to maturity stage (Panicle to maturity)

60-100

Reproductive to maturity stage (Booting to maturity)

60-100

2010

3 Day Trainorsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

Reproductive to maturity stage (Flowering to maturity)

60-100

Late reproductive to maturity stage (Milking to maturity)

45-60

Maturity stage Soft dough to maturity; Hard dough to maturity)

10 or less

Transplanting to maturity stage (Minimum tillering to maturity)

95-100

Source: Philippines Department of Agriculture

Table __. Estimated crop yield loss for rice due to typhoon-induced strong wind (Source: DA, 2009).

Crop Wind velocity (kph) Growth 101-150 >150 70-100 stage Period of Exposure (hrs) < or =12 >12 < or =12 >12 < or =12 >12 Estimated Yield Loss (%) Booting

<10-15

15-20

15-25

20-30

15-30

25-35

Flowering

10-25

25-30

15-30

30-35

25-40

35-50

Maturity

<10-15

15-20

10-20

20-25

15-25

25-30

Table__. Estimated rice crop yield loss due to flood at different stages of plant growth and development (Source: DA, 2009).

Plant Growth Stage

Clear Water

Muddy Water

Days of submergence 1-2

3-4

5-6

7

1-2

3-4

5-6

7

Minimum tillering/ Maximum tillering

10

15-20

20-30

30-50

10-20

20-30

30-50

50-100

Panicle initiation/ Booting stage (Partially inundated, i.e.

9-12 cm long remains above water)

10

20-30

30-65

40-80

10-20

30-50

40-85

50-100

Panicle initiation/ Booting stage (Fully inundated*)

15-25

20-45

30-80

50100

15-30

40-70

40-85

50-100

Flowering stage

10-15

15-45

20-30

30-70

15-30

40-70

50-90

60-100

stage/

Maturity

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

Ripening stage

0

10-15

15-20

15-20

5

10-20

15-30

15-30

Step 8. Identification of Future Adaptation Responses Potential CCA options to increase climate resilience of agricultural production systems under anticipated climate conditions in the future can be evaluated considering their effectiveness, applicability, and pre-requisites in practical applications. These options may be classified in terms of extent of applications, e.g. short-term, medium term, and long-term. For example, a dynamic cropping calendar is a short-term CCA measure to climate variability.

Breeding of stress-resistant varieties of crops to climate risks is an example of long-term adaptation. Planting of drought resistant rice varieties such as PSB Rc 12 and PSB Rc 14 during the dry season is recommended. The so-called “Sub1” rice cultivar which can withstand prolong flooding many be planted in flooded or water-logged areas. Moreover, the suite of CCA options may also include innovations to good practices with anticipated future effects and impacts beyond what are expected. The combination of CCA measures may be evaluated in terms of effectiveness and efficiency translated in terms of yield and potential yield losses saved under current or baseline conditions.

3 Day Trainorsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

CHAPTER 8. Proposed Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment Framework, Tools and Methods for Benguet/Ifugao I.

Purpose of the Assessment: To determine extent of vulnerability and the capability of the various components of the agricultural system to cope up or overcome the adversities of climate change impacts thereby providing a basis for planning, prioritizing or developing adaptation strategies for the agriculture sector of Benguet and Ifugao at the provincial, municipal, community and farm levels.

II.

Basic Features of the Assessment Tool: a. The approach is community-based; b. Anchored on the definition that climate change vulnerability is the result of the interaction and interrelation of three major factors: hazard, exposure and adaptation; c. It views agriculture as a holistic system with biophysical, economic, socio-cultural, and political components d. Two major components of the assessment: 1. Climate Change Factors and their Impact on the different components of the agricultural system, 2. Capability of the system to cope with adversities and further develop into a resilient production system

III.

Framework for the Assessment Tool

The vulnerability and resilience to climate change is determined by the nature of the natural hazard, the exposure level, and the adaptive capacity of the affected community (EEPSEA, 2008). The adaptive capacity could be gauged with the hazard preparedness, resilience, and capacity to recover from damage caused by the hazard (Figure 1).

Climate change is said to result to different abnormalities in the climate. These abnormalities will have different effects on the community and the natural resources. A community may have different populations, and different and living in different environmental conditions, hence, the same community may have different levels of vulnerability to different types of natural hazards.

Vulnerability of a community to the different abnormalities will also differ. In assessing therefore for the vulnerability of a community, it is important to first identify the type climate abnormalities that the climate change could bring. The adaptive capacity to climate change can be seen by the hazard preparedness of the community, their resilience, and the capacity to recover from the damage caused by the hazard. Community resilience can be resilience in terms of the biophysical and socio-economic.

3 Day Trainorsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

Figure 1. Framework for the Community-based Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment of the Agricultural Sector for Benguet and Ifugao (AgSys-VACA) IV.

Procedure in the Conduct of the Assessment

There are three major phases of the assessment with several activities in each phase, listed as follows: a. Pre-assessment and planning phase 1. Organizing the vulnerability and capacity assessment team.

2. Study of the area through secondary information 3. Planning and preparation for the field work b. Actual assessment 1. Site reconnaissance 2. Describe climate-related hazards in the community (types, location, frequency, seasonality, impacts, and magnitude of damage).

3. Describe vulnerabilities and capacities of the community.

4. Conduct hazard mapping 5. Identify and assess current adaptation measures c. Post-assessment phase 1. Integration of results 2. Formulation of recommendations

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

The following are the steps in the conduct of the assessment: 1. Organizing the Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Team. A minimum of five members will be sufficient to conduct the vulnerability assessment. The team should include representatives of the following groups: the municipal agricultural office, municipal development planner, municipal disaster coordinating council, response organizations (e.g., police, fire, and people‟s organizations. While not all of these are required on a continuous basis, they should all provide an input in the determination of “vulnerability” and in the development of a meaningful solution to the problem. These may include emergency medical services (EMS), local utilities, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), social services, and key volunteer organizations (i.e., those representing or those servicing vulnerable populations).

2. Study of the area through secondary information. Collect secondary data regarding the target community from various sources. The data to be collected and sources may include the following: Data Requirements

Possible Sources

Climate Statistics (Rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind, tropical cyclones, drought occurrences, changes in climate)

PAG-ASA, local weather stations (e.g., state colleges and universities, research centers), comprehensive land use plans (CLUPs)

Agricultural Data (Production areas, soil types/characteristics, farming systems, crops planted, cropping patterns and schedules, nutrient and pest management, support services, crop yields, damages, production inputs and losses, pests and diseases, livestock production, government programs/projects)

Municipal Agricultural Office, Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, state colleges and universities, research centers, comprehensive land use plans (CLUPs)

Community Map

Barangay development plans

3. Planning and preparation for the field work.

4. Site reconnaissance.

5. Description of climate-related hazards in the community (types, location, frequency, seasonality, impacts, and magnitude of damage), as follows:

2010

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

Step

Data to be collected

Output

Method

a. Identify climaterelated hazards in the community. List down and describe the nature of hazards in terms of its recurrence, seasonality, location

 Type of hazards  Seasonality  Location

 List and nature of hazards  Seasonal occurrence of hazards

 Timeline (hazard history and significant events that happened in the community)  Seasonal calendar (seasonality of the hazards and activities)

b. For each of the hazards, determine how frequent the community is exposed to the hazard, what were affected and their impacts

 Frequency of exposure to the hazards  What were affected  Magnitude of the damage (e.g. effects on crop yields)  Observed trends

 Prevalence and severity of the hazards

 Historical transect (how much natural resources have been affected by the hazards)  Matrix ranking (determine hazard that has most serious impact on the community

6. Describe vulnerabilities and capacities of the community. The following is the procedure: Step

Data needed

Output

Method

a. Identify high risk areas (harsh environments)

 Flood-prone areas  Landslide-risk areas  Drought sensitive areas

 Location of “high risk” areas

 Key informant interview  Community mapping  Transect walk

b. Identify vulnerable farming systems • Identify major farming systems (crops and livestock) • Determine sensitivity of crops and livestock to extreme climate conditions (severity of impacts of crops and livestock)

 Areas planted to annual crops (rice, corn, vegetables)  Areas with large number of livestock

 Vulnerable farming systems

 Secondary data (area planted to crops, sensitivity of crops to climate change)  Transect walk  Seasonal calendar (rainfall, cropping pattern and farm activities, seasonality of income)

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

2010

• Map areas devoted to climatesensitive crops and livestock c. Map high-density areas

 High density areas

 High population  Social mapping density map

d. Identify operational sectors of the community

 Operational sectors (e.g. residential, farms, industrial, etc.)

 Operational sector map

 Operational sector mapping

e. Describe socioeconomic condition of the community

   

Population change Age structure Dependency rate Household income level  Sources of income (including on-farm, off-farm, and nonfarm)

 Socioeconomic resilience of the community

 Secondary data  Key informant interview  Wealth ranking

f. Identify “most vulnerable” groups

 Most vulnerable groups

 List of “most vulnerable” groups

 Matrix ranking considering Identifying those living in harsh environments, low income, dependent on agriculture for source of income, children, disabled

g. Describe climate hazard preparedness of the community

 General knowledge of the hazards  Presence of early warning system  Access to information/commu nication facilities  Presence of adaptation measures

 Climate hazardpreparedness information

 Key informant interview

h. Identify capacities of the “vulnerable groups”

 Physical capacity  Cognitive ability  Resource availability (e.g. access to

 List of capacities

 Venn diagram  Key informant interview

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools

   

2010

transportation, shelter or medicine) Linguistic capacity (i.e. comprehension of key messages) Key linkages (e.g. to warning or response systems) Degree of isolation (i.e. physical, political or cultural) Strength or availability of support systems (e.g. neighbors, community self help, family, NGOs, or service providers, agricultural support (shelter for livestock, rehabilitation support)

Note: The procedure in the conduct of the different participatory tools could be taken from Abarquez, I. and Zubair Murshed.

2004. Community-based Disaster Risk Management : Field Practitioners‟ Handbook. Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), Klong Luang, Pathumthani, Thailand.

7. Conduct hazard mapping. From the previous step, capture the hazards, vulnerability, natural resources and facilities in community and/or digitized maps. Identify intersection or overlap of “high risk areas” and “most vulnerable groups”. These are areas at risk from specific hazards and vulnerable members of the community.

8. Identify and assess current adaptation measures. For each of the hazards that the community has experienced, identify what adaptations the community has done to lessen the impact of the hazards. For each of the adaptation, determine their prevalence among livelihood, effectiveness for the specific hazard, who makes the decision, and the length of time the action Is effective.

The adaptive capacity assessment can be done at the individual farmer/ household level and at the community level. The following are the data that can be collected:

Individual-level adaptive capacity

• Literacy rate • Dependency rate

Community-level adaptive capacity

• Municipal revenue per capita • Bayanihan practice (farmer to farmer

3 Day Trainors’ Training on Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Tools • Other sources of income (off-farm and non-farm) • Adjusting the planting season (delay planting or early harvesting) • Change rice variety to drought tolerant variety • Replanting • Manual repair of rice terraces or dikes • Water flow control in terraces (blocking water source from top in times when too much rain) • Selling of animals and/other properties (like jewelries, lands) • Loan from neighbors/money lenders/institutions • Support from relatives

2010

extension; number of relatives) • Availability of technology • Adaptability of technology • Support institutions (weather forecast, climate change information dissemination, anticipative programs by the DA, disaster coordinating bodies); • Access to credit • Diversified farming • Community participation in watershed management • Community involvement on repair of eroded terraces • Water-saving techniques

Assess the adaptation measures according to the following criteria:  Do the adaptation measures address high priority vulnerable group or components of the agricultural system?  Are the adaptation measures likely to be effective?  How expensive are the adaptation measures?  Are there institutional, legal, socio-cultural, economic and technological barriers to the implementation of the adaptation measures?

V.

Integration of Results

VI.

Analysis and Recommendation