The Bridge | Issue 03

07 Domestic Demand is

16 AI, Foreign Policy, and

Key to Sustaining Growth in China Amid High Uncertainty

National Governance Impact: Focus on China | Arthur Gwagwa

08 Empowered Women

20 US geopolitical inter-

Will Drive Economic Growth in the Pacific

09 The origin of the Four Modernizations and President Xi Jinping’s current choices | Giancarlo Elia Valori

ests offer Iran sanctions loophole amid mounting tension | Dr. James M. Dorsey

22 Ports of Pakistan and

Gwadar’s Potential as a Transshipment Port | Dr. Anjum Sarfraz

modern diplomacy moderndiplomacy.eu

25 Sri Lankan Attacks

34 Behind Indo-Pacific

Linkage to International Terrorism | Ishaal Zehra

Vision | Tridivesh Singh Maini

28 The Capriciousness of

37 The Indo-Pacific nar-

Hybrid Warfare in South Asia | Musawar Sandhu

rative and China | Tridivesh Singh Maini

31 US-China Global Ri-

40 Chimeras and Reali-

valry and BRI Khan

| Irfan

32 Power Projection of China | Maryam Zohra Warraich

ties of the Indo-Pacific Partnership | Vladimir Petrovsky

43 China’s changing in-

terests in South Caucasus | Orkhan Baghirov

THE SOCIETY THAT SEPARATES ITS SCHOLARS FROM

ITS WARRIORS

WILL HAVE

ITS THINKING DONE BY COWARDS

AND ITS FIGHTING

BY FOOLS THUCYDIDES

moderndiplomacy moderndiplomacy.eu

45 China Set to Increase its Inuence in Georgia | Emil Avdaliani

47 How Will Uzbekistan

Become A Regional Transit Hub? | Fuad Shahbazov

50 Pakistan: Is it in Midst

of Debt Trap? | Prof. Engr.

Zamir Ahmed Awan

52 7 Must Visit Sites in Chiang Rai

55 Al Maryah Island:

Everything about Abu Dhabi’s newest business and lifestyle destination

57 The Athenian Riviera:

Where the City Meets the Sea

Domestic Demand is Key to Sustaining Growth in China Amid High Uncertainty

come taxes contributed to a consolidated fiscal deficit of 3.9 percent of GDP. In 2019, new tax and fee reductions and a higher limit for local government on-budget borrowing may lead to a higher consolidated deficit of about 5.9 percent of GDP.

Taking into account the expected stimulus, the World Bank baseline projection for GDP growth in 2019 remains unchanged at 6.2 percent. Despite the positive surprise in GDP growth in the first quarter of 2019, net exports are unlikely to provide a sustained boost in the coming months, as new tariffs take effect and global growth slows. The escalation in trade tensions, weaker business confidence, and slower global trade growth, are expected to weigh on investment and exports in 2020, prompting a downward revision to next year’s growth forecast.

China’s economic growth has so far remained resilient in the face of high global uncertainty.

GDP growth was 6.4 percent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2018 and in the first quarter of 2019, compared to 6.8 percent in the first half of 2018.

Growth is projected at 6.2 percent for 2019 and 6.1 percent for 2020.

the additional stimulus should be appropriately funded either directly at the central level or through additional fiscal transfers to the provinces. Higher spending on health, education, and social protection could help boost demand and improve the quality of services, if combined with reforms to increase efficiency.”

“In response to the growth moderation and less favorable external conditions, the government introduced a fiscal stimulus emphasizing tax incentives,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Country Director for China.

“While the central government has fiscal space to further increase spending, if necessary,

“Despite being among the global leaders in a number of technologies, China still has significant room for catching up to the aggregate productivity level of high-income countries and can continue to benefit from global integration,” said John Litwack, World Bank Lead Economist for China. “Economic prospects both in China and in its trading partners would receive a significant In 2018, lower value-added tax boost from resolving the cur(VAT) rates and import duties, rent trade disputes.” higher export VAT refunds, and slower growth in personal in-

In an external environment that has become less favorable due to slowing global growth and rising trade tensions, China’s economy will need to rely increasingly on domestic demand to sustain rapid growth, according to Managing Higher Uncertainty, the May 2019 edition of the World Bank’s China Economic Update released today.

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Renewed trade tensions contributed to rising financial market volatility in early May. Financial asset prices dropped sharply in response to the US announcement of higher tariffs on imports from China. Amid higher market volatility, the People’s Bank of China has maintained a prudent overall monetary policy stance with some targeted easing. Higher bank loans and corporate and government bond issuance led to slightly stronger growth in credit to the non-financial sector in the first four months of 2019.

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Empowered Women Will Drive Economic Growth in the Pacific Making it easier for women in the Pacific to start businesses and gain formal employment will improve livelihoods and create more open and productive economies, says a recently released book by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Women and Business in the Pacific, a joint publication from ADB’s Pacific Private Sector Development Initiative (PSDI) and the Government of Australia, examines how women in seven Pacific countries engage in the private sector. It identifies numerous barriers to women’s entrepreneurship and employ ment, and suggests a range of responses for each country to consider.

“Women’s economic empowerment will not happen automatically or quickly in Pacific island countries,” said ADB Director General for the Pacific Ms. Carmela Locsin. “It will require a sustained, collaborative effort from governments, development agencies, civil society organizations, and the private sector. This book, with its innovative and pragmatic recommendations, will help these

institutions formulate effective programs to ensure women in the Pacific can participate fully in their economies.”

“No nation can reach its economic potential without harnessing the energy, skills, ideas, and talent of women,” said First Assistant Secretary in Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade’s Office of the Pacific Ms. Kathy Klugman.

“With the diversity of ways it presents to support women’s empowerment and their equal access to economic opportunities, Women and Business in the Pacific will help governments, business, aid organizations, and women in the Pacific themselves to achieve the goal of seeing more women working and leading in the private sector.”

Data collected for the book illustrates the under-representation of women in the Pacific in economic activities. Women constitute just 34% of the formal workforce in Fiji and only 29% in Samoa, where they earn 62% less on average than men.

In Tonga, only 18% of formal businesses are women-owned,

while only 25% of small and medium-sized enterprises are owned by women in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Only 8% of state-owned enterprise board members in Vanuatu are women, and only 10% in PNG are.

“Women and Business catalogues, analyzes, and seeks to inform responses to the contexts that economically marginalize women in Pacific countries,” said the book’s lead author and PSDI’s Gender Expert Ms. Vijaya Nagarajan.

“These include limited access to land, finance, skills training, and trade and markets, as well as—more broadly—threats to women’s autonomy and issues with dispute resolution and the enforcement of rights.”

The book offers a diverse range of strategies countries could apply to bridge these exclusions, spur business activity, and enhance women’s independence and security. These include amendments to business and labor laws; creating entrepreneurial “hubs” where women business owners and entrepreneurs can access training and advice; supporting groups of women in the agricultural sector to develop skills and resources for processing, storing, packaging, and transporting crops; and improving women’s access to finance using secured transactions frameworks that enable nonland assets to be used as collateral.

THE BRIDGE

The origin of the Four Modernizations and President Xi Jinping’s current choices

by Giancarlo Elia Valori ON SEPTEMBER 13, 1971 Lin Biao tried to flee to the USSR with all his family, aboard a Trident plane of civil aviation, which had left with little fuel and no active radio contact. The crash of the aircraft in Mongolia, where both Lin and his whole family died, was caused by the order given directly by Mao to shoot down the plane.

What had happened, obviously in political and not in personal terms?

The answer is simple: Lin Biao was very strongly opposed to the new agreement between China and the United States and hence had organized a military coup. For Lin Biao all the room for US geopolitics was to be found in what the Third International’s forces traditionally defined as “imperialism”.

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For Mao Zedong, imperialism was vital for both the USSR and the USA- and considering that he was far from the continent that was the prize for which of the two won the Cold War, namely Europe-he refused to make too many differences between the two.

In 1973 Deng Xiaoping reappeared in public, upon direct order by Mao Zedong. Those were also the years of the late definitive success of the “policy line” of Zhou Enlai, who had successfully gone through the Great Cultural and Proletarian Revolution, which had partly overwhelmed him, and led the As a man of Tao and Zen, Mao 10thCPC Congress. treated an evil with another evil.

That was the compromise Mao Zedong, however, also which held the Party together, knew that a new economic re- after Lin Biao’s elimination. An lationship with the United unstable agreement between States was needed, after the the reformist “Right” (Zhou had long economic crisis and the spoken of “four modernizafactional instability within the tions” many years before, exChinese regime. The Soviet actly in 1965) and the Left, Union could certainly not give it silenced by Mao, that had economic stability and hence crossed the red line of the Culthe “Great Helmsman” turned to tural Revolution and the failed the distant enemy rather than communization of rural areas. to the near quasi-friend.

In those years, also the Party’s Nothing can be understood Left lacked mass management about China, including current of the people and the Party and China, if geopolitical choices had to agree with the other facare separated from economic, tions, while Mao mediated and financial and industrial ones also created “third wheels”. which, however, are subjected Create something from nothing to the strategic “policy line” de- – one of the Thirty-Six Stratafined by the Party – a policy gems of the Chinese Art of War. line that is cultural and always based on a very long term.

In 1973, just before the equilibrium between Zhou and the old On September 29, 1972 the CPC apparata broke again, diplomatic relationship with Deng Xiaoping was fully rehaJapan were resumed, along bilitated and also became with those with the United member of the Chinese States. An evident overlapping regime’s deep axis, namely the of different geopolitical lines Central Military Commission. In which, however – in the minds 1975 Deng was elected viceof the Chinese decision-makers President of the Central Com-were similar also from the mittee and member of the Politburo Standing Committee. symbolic viewpoint.

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The connection between the reformists – if we can call them so – siding with Zhou Enlai, and the “centre” of the Party’s apparatus – that regained its roles and posts by ousting the Armed Forces -prevailed once again.

Again in 1975, the National People’s Congress praised the “Four Modernizations” already proposed by Zhou and, in its final statement, hoped “that China would be turned into a modern and powerful Socialist country in the approximately twenty years before the end of the century”.

Political transformation through the new economy, as well as preservation of the regime through political transformation itself.

We could call it “the Tao of geoeconomics”. Acceleration of industrialization and modernization, but without creating the disaster of rural masses, who were objectively unable of providing the start-up capital for implementing any of the Four Modernizations. This was the real difference with the USSR of the 1930s.

That capital had to be produced in innovative companies and be attracted from outside.

At the time, however, the CPC was not yet firmly in the hands of any factions. In September 1975, the national Agriculture Conference saw the harsh THE BRIDGE

clash between Deng Xiaoping and the old “Shanghai group” of the Cultural and Proletarian Revolution that, however, no longer controlled most of the Party.

Zhou Enlai died in January 1976 and shortly afterwards, in Tiananmen Square, there were severe incidents, albeit with the constant presence of many wreaths reminding of Zhou.

Later there were also strikes and unrest, until the capture and trial of the “Gang of Four” in Shanghai. It had inspired the “Cultural Revolution” and was then directly accused by Hua Guofen – the man appointed by Mao to lead the transition- of having prepared a coup.

and social contexts in which the analysis of the founder of “scientific Communism” had never focused. In fact, when you read the works and correspondence that Marx dedicated to the Russian agricultural issue, you note that the author of “Capital” foresaw a direct Socialist social transformation stemming from the maintenance of the social and community networks in traditional villages. It may seem strange, but it is so.

This system operates only with a non-industrialized State that is scarcely widespread in the territory. Otherwise, the problem is that of capitalism in rural areas to generate the surplus of urban and industrial investments. Even in the Second VolChina’s transformation, how- ume of “Capital”, Marx’s model ever, began again from rural is essentially this one. areas: at the second Agriculture Conference in Dazhai, in De- It is precisely on the agricultural cember 1976 – where various issue that the stability and succases of corruption and “social cess of many Communist polarization” were described regimes isdefined and, not surand stigmatized- the discus- prisingly, the first of Zhou’s and sion focused on the First Mod- later Deng’s Four Modernizaernization, namely that of rural tions was precisely that of agriareas. When you regulate too culture. much, a parallel and illegal market is created. This always hap- The topic characterized all pens. Obviously this also Party’s organizations, but it was happens when total commu- in late December 1978 that the nization is applied to the eco- Third Plenary Session of the nomic cycle of rural areas.

11th CPC Central Committee decided to decentralize the Certainly those were residues economy – another factor of Sovietism in the CPC’s doc- strongly different from the trine, but also of the a-dialecti- Leninist tradition – and even to cal implementation of liberalize it, in addition to a Marxism- Leninism in historical process of ideological revision,

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namely Gaige Kaifang that roughly means “reform and opening”.

That was also related to the request for opening international trade based on the criterion of “mutual benefit” and equality between the various countries.

Hence, also from the ideological viewpoint, Deng became the Supreme Leader of the Party – as well as of the State apparatus – and announced the Open Door policy.

An extremely important fact was also the separation of the Bank of China from the People’s Bank of China, so as to serve as single State body for foreign exchanges.

That was the start of the “Long March” towards the Four Modernizations, with an unusually united Party, and currently towards “Socialism with Chinese characteristics” , as well as – at geopolitical level -President Xi Jinping’s New Silk Road.

In January 1980, the “four freedoms” – of work, people, goods and capital – were abolished.

The new planning needed to manage all aspects of productive forces.

That was explained by a covert war of the Chinese economy against the penetration of foreign capital and joint ventures, which in fact were immediately regulated by specific legislation enacted the previous year.

The great British operation of economic control over the South-Chinese coasts was resumed from Hong Kong, but the Chinese government eliminated the possibility of such an action by Great Britain (and by the USA, at least partly).

In September 1983, at the 12th CPC Congress, there were three groups within the Party: the nostalgic Maoists, a small and narrow majority for Deng Xiaoping; the Orthodox group that still wanted a nationally planned economy, as in USSR hence probably the heirs to Lin Hence the Party’s unity had to Biao; finally the real reformists. be reflected in a new context and, to some extents, in the Deng won with a clear, but not whole society, so as to prevent overwhelming majority. Hence, the liberalized Chinese econ- everyone was waiting for the omy from taking the Party and Four Modernizations to fail, so Socialism away. A new ration- as to go back to the old routine ale for the CPC’s Leninist unity. of the Plan.

The new Act on contract law was enacted in March 1981, As also happened in the USSR, and in 1982 also the new civil it was often fully imaginary procedure law was enacted, compared to the actual reality which became effective on Oc- of the things done and produced. tober 1, 1982.

It was in 1983, however, that the Third Front strategy was implemented, i.e. Mao’s directive – drawn up as early as 1962 – according to which the national strategic industries had to be moved from the coasts – militarily and politically difficult to defend – to the internal areas.

Without said Mao’s directive, the New Silk Road could not be understood even currently.

Hence 14 open coastal cities that were declared so in 1984, but with a new law on profits that served as mainstay of Modernizations: companies were asked to pay a certain share of profits to the government, but they could withhold some profits if they matched and exceeded the requirements THE BRIDGE

of the contract with the State.

In 1985 a new regulation also involved government bonds.

The seventh Five-Year Plan began, underlining a “scale” approach, in which the coastal areas – gradually freed from traditional strategic companies – were driving the economic development, which later spread like wildfire even in the internal areas. It was the Hong Kong model that Deng Xiaoping’s executives copied and adapted.

In October 1987,the 13th CPC Congress was held, in which – for the first time – there was talk about the “commodity economy”, i.e. a two-tier mechanism, in which the market is matched and also “corrected” by the old national planning. A sort of re-edition, for internal use, of the formula “one country, two systems” implemented

by China with the agreements for Macao and Hong Kong. In 1988, however, the 7thNational People’s Congress officially legitimized the private initiative For a short lapse of time, Chi- (not the mere ownership) and nese analysts and Party plan- enabled private individuals to ners also looked to the buy State-owned companies.

Singapore model, with the (single) Party of Lee Kuan Yew. It The term “People’s ownership” isby no mere coincidence that was also deleted, while individShenzen was close to the for- uals and groups, even non-Chimer British colony, and often nese ones, could buy land with the Chinese attracted and a system similar to that of the favoured the companies of the British real estate leasing. ProfBritish area towards the new its, wherever made, had to be Chinese coastal areas also reinvested in the company that characterized by free-market originated them, before reeconomy. questing any financing from the People’s Bank. The Special EcoAdvanced and high-tech serv- nomic Zones, modelled again ices in coastal areas, and lower on the Hong Kong system, bevalue-added, but still inevitable, came five. productions in internal regions.

A new dualism, where rural Hence innovation on the coasts overpopulation had to be grad- and strategic companies in the ually absorbed by inland strate- central regions – mainly public gic companies. A double ones, which still remained algeopolitical status of inland most completely public. In April areas which, in many cases, is 1989, Jiang Zemin rose to repeated also in the current Belt power. Student demonstrations and Road Initiative. also began in Tiananmen In 1986, the “open-ended” con- Square, where, year after year, tracts for the manpower work- the various anti-regime organiing in State-owned companies zations gathered: Falun Gong, came to an end. the networks of many illegal MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU

parties, unrecognized union organizations and many “spontaneous” groups. And some old “Red Guards”. Zhao Ziyang, the Party leader already defenestrated by Jiang Zemin, was in fact at the centre of “spontaneous” organizations.

The various Autonomous Federations of Workers -spread by location and not by industry – were legally created. Gorbachev’s visit took place in May 1989.

That was the key moment of a long series of doctrinal, practical, cultural and historical differences that – from the very beginning – divided the two great Eastern heirs to the Marxist-Leninist Third International.

What really mattered to the Chinese leadership was that the Russian crisis did not overwhelm the Chinese Communists: that was the meaning of the declaration signed by Gorbachev, which regarded the “peaceful coexistence” of the two Communist regimes.

The leader of the Soviet Party was made fun of – not even so elegantly – not because he had reformed the Soviet economic system – in a way, however, that the Chinese deemed wrong – but for one reason only: he had relinquished the Party’s role in the reformist process, which the CPSU had to lead and guide for China, from the very beginning.

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An “economicist” mistake, as the CPC’s ideologues said – yet another proof of the Marxist roughness of the “Northern enemy”, as Deng Xiaoping called Russia. Sarcastic sniggers on the lips of Chinese leaders. Then Gorbachev explained again his perestrojka and glas’nost, but the Chinese leaders, whose power was based on Party’s bayonets, kept on not taking him seriously.

that the CPC’s power was based on its “vast representation” of the Chinese productive forces, of the cultural and technological avant-gardes and of the wide strata of population.

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Once the crisis was over, Deng Xiaoping left also the last very strong power in Jiang’s hands: the leadership of the Central Military Commission.

Shortly afterwards – and there was nothing more symbolic than that event – the Stock Exchange of Shanghai reopened.

A reopening that had been expected since the 1930s.

In other words, the Chinese society – and its economy, in particular – was reformed by bringing the elites together, part of whom were in Tiananmen Square, but also the large crowds still organized by the Later also the Shenzhen SecuDays before the arrival of the Party. A Confucian middle way rities Exchange opened. In both Soviet leader, at least one mil- that was particularly success- of them, any securities – includlion people had gathered in ful. ing those issued by the State – Tiananmen Square.The probwere traded, but there was only lems that the Chinese leader- Hence, Zhao Ziyang definitively one deep logic: to acquire proship had to solve in a short lost the game within the Party ductive capital to generate lapse of time were radical: the that, however, was also inside strong and self-sustained de“hard” wing that was previously the Tiananmen Square insur- velopment of the coasts and of a minority prevailed and man- gency. the high value-added industries aged to convince Jiang Zemin.

The Party and its authority – the basis of any transformation, even the most radical one – were re-established without much talk. It was impossible to think about a heir to the “Long March” that dissolved the Party within “society”. On May 19, the CPC decided to follow the hard line and the military forces reached the areas near the Square, from the outskirts of Beijing. Few hours later, the Square was completely cleared, but that was done the hard way.

Shortly afterwards, at the 4th CPC Plenum, Jiang Zemin – also following the experience of Tiananmen Square – returned to one of his old theories and developed the “Three Represents” model, i.e. the idea

THE BRIDGE

that had to compete on the world free market, without granting protection and aid that would go to the detriment of the deep productive structures of the internal regions.

In 1992, Deng’s journey to Southern borders had a clear route, although the CPC’s leadership had always had some doubts about the “free economic zones”. The core of the issue was that the GDP had to be increased in the lapse of time between the 1990s and the beginning of the Third Millennium.

It had to be rapidly increased from 6% to 10%. Without that “quantitative” assessment – just to use the old Communist jargon – there could be no “qualitative” transformation of Chinese society.

There were also other changes that, in a few years, led to the current Socialism with Chinese characteristics, as advocated

by President Xi Jinping. However, everything could be done from a legal view point began in those years. The transformation process of the Chinese economy is long, powerful and complex, but – unlike what is often said in the West – it is never a mere market mechanism or a naive adaptation of the Party or the State to the absolute Western rules of globalization.

As early as the 1990s, China has decided to govern market globalization and not just being a part of it. It wants to lead the process so as to be – now that the end of the century about which Deng thought has long been over – the axis of globalEverything had to be done soon ization and the centre of the – well, but soon. That was the new global hegemonies. characteristic of Deng Xiaoping’s years – extraordinary years, in some respects.

In a short lapse of time, the Party developed the concepts of “Socialism with Chinese characteristics” and of “market Socialism”, which are so important also in President Xi Jinping’s current policy line.

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AI, Foreign Policy, and National Governance Impact: Focus on China

by Arthur Gwagwa HOW CHINA’S AI technology exports may lead to the emergence of new power structures outside the control of existing governance and accountability frameworks and impact the rules-based global order and geopolitical alliances. The notion of power and geopolitical influence in the digital era

Until recently, analytical attention to the development of digital technologies, including AI, has tended to focus on corporations such as Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon (GAFAs).

These GAFAs, some of them deemed to be more powerful than some states, have changed the notion of power and geopolitical influence.

These corporations are leveraging the power of AI, networks, data intelligence infrastructures, and regulatory frameworks to impact public space around the world.

THE BRIDGE

This is leading to the emergence of new power structures outside the control of existing liberal democratic and human rights accountability frameworks, to the extent that even democratic societies resent this power over their public space.

Meanwhile, less noticed but arguably more effective in its consequences, is the Chinese government’s investment in the development and application of these same technologies, — aimed at strengthening its state intelligence infrastructure— strongly suggesting that AI could shape society and government in very different ways than the originators of said technologies at issue may have anticipated. Capitalizing on these current structural and technological shifts in the global information environment—enabled by algorithms, artificial intelligence, and other new opportunities created, China and its allies are able to censor and manipulate information at its source and control what populations can see and say on the internet.

While Russia’s role in undermining Western democracies through algorithms is well documented and debated, it is China’s combination of state-directed capitalism and coercive economic diplomacy which will potentially upend the rulesbased global order and a geopolitical re-alignment, possibly leading to a real multipolar

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world. Together with its allies it will, among other strategies that constitute its sharp power, do so through AI-driven applications and ironically by exploiting the vulnerabilities in the openness of democracies. All in all, it will be an attempt to create a new political order which challenges states’ sovereignty.

Chinese AI capabilities and domestic objectives

China is spending vast sums on research related to AI technologies, as cyberpower sits at the intersection of a number of its national domestic and foreign policy priorities.

China’s international cyber ambitions are closely paired with its existing and growing use of AI technologies for surveillance and social control at home.

This is evident from the intrusive AI-driven surveillance infrastructures being employed in Xinjiang state and that of the Great Fire Wall (GFW). Although American companies took an early lead in AI, for example, as measured by the application of machine learning and number of AI patents registration, China

is closing the gap with the U.S. At the current technological advancement rate, it is predicted that by 2025 China will surpass the U.S. and by 2030it will dominate the industries of AI. This poses significant implications to the economic, political, security, cultural, and human rights global order.

China’s foreign objectives

To advance its “going out” foreign investment public diplomacy policy, in 2017 the Chinese government outlined its roadmap for turning itself into the “world’s primary AI innovation Centre” by 2030. The Chinese state-backed “AI National Team,” a group of leading Chinese technology firms, are investing in the development and exporting of new technologies with state backing. Coupled with sizable state investment in cyber technology development, this suggests China aims to become an AIcentered “cyber-superpower”.

In recent years, as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s export of AI technologies to developing countries, ‘operating both within the

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Global South and the international community, ’has grown rapidly, reinforcing the idealized South-South development model and a geopolitical realignment.

There has been a widely held view amongst development practitioners and policymakers operating within the Global South, that the South-South development model has largely been conducive for economic growth, particularly in terms of attracting investment, infrastructure, including internet infrastructure, and diversifying the landscape of trading partners, diverging from former colonial ties. However, an unintended consequence of this has been that the pro SouthSouth stance has hindered critical thinking in relation to discerning the negative repercussions.

As the democracy and human rights implications stemming from the unregulated export of Chinese AI to the Global South are beginning to surface, it is imperative that this idealized narrative is challenged. It is clear that China’s export of AI technologies exceeds mere economic purposes. In addition to expanding its cyber-industry market share, these exports allow Beijing to use developing countries as laboratories to test, diversify, and improve its surveillance technologies. This goes beyond conventional trading parameters, constituting instead a form of economic

exploitation that leans toward extractive dynamics. Perhaps this is an emerging form of cyber colonization?

Recently, China signed agreements with Zimbabwe, Angola and Ethiopia, ostensibly to diversify algorithm training data.

Despite the potential economic gains of China’s AI technology exports to Africa, the prospective implications of such unregulated trade on democratic, participatory governance, and human rights in Africa may be extremely negative. Particularly susceptible are countries with long histories of human rights abuses and poor records regarding the rule of law, where China’s surveillance technologies are proving increasingly attractive to governments facing strong domestic opposition, ongoing insurgencies, and other security challenges, including popular protests.

The unregulated export of Chinese AI technologies to countries that fit this profile is likely to reinforce existing systemic repression as well as introduce new ones. AI-driven applications will soon allow authoritarians to analyze patterns in a population’s online activity, identify those most susceptible to a particular message, and target them more precisely with propaganda.AI will create persuasion infrastructures at scale…to manipulate individuals one by one, using their personal, individual weaknesses and vulnerabilities”.

Such influencing campaigns – aimed at either specific populations of authoritarian countries or those of democracies abroad – undermine free speech, political participation, and other liberal principles in countries around the world through coercive economic diplomacy.

How does this affect the liberal world order and liberal democracies in the west?

China’s growing development and export of AI technologies is fostering state monitoring and control of society, censorship, and the empowerment of states often unaccountable to their populations. Under the guise of BRI, China is seeking to export and globalize its policy of authoritarian cyber controls, which directly run counter to democratic societies’ aspirations for a free and open global internet.

However, China’s efforts to influence cyberspace and the rules-based global order is part of larger trends and patterns relating to authoritarian cooperation and innovation, including the emergence of authoritarian cyber counter-norms and its effort to actively contest democratic development, the democratic ideal, and liberal order. Since the end of the Cold War, China and its allies sensed the democratic state’s reluctance to defend the liberal order and a wrong assumption that China would liberalize.

THE BRIDGE

Despite their divergent views, China, Russia, and Iran all agree on the goal of weakening the global democratic norms encouraged by the West. Cyberspace and in particular AI provides a new frontier through which to realize their shared ambitions to undermine human rights, in particular freedom of speech, by controlling information at the source and carrying out influence campaigns as outlined above.

CONSIDERATIONS

Companies and governments that are using AI at a global level should adopt global standards. They should apply human rights law, which provides global standards, for example, article 19 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights which protects everyone’s right to “seek, receive, and impart information and ideas of all kinds, regardless of frontiers.”

In the same way they have done on the internet, the West should promote a distributed model of AI governance that involves the GAFAs, technical bodies, the private sector, civil society, and governments. They should categorically reject Beijing’s preferred state-centric and UN-led multilateral approach to governing cyberspace as China can easily use its diplomatic clout at the UN to frustrate the distributed model of internet governance. The West should strengthen the

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voice of marginalized populations, which include urban and rural poor communities, women, youth, LGBTQ, ethnic and racial groups, people with disabilities – and particularly those at the intersection of these marginalized groups, by insisting that:

Companies that own global AI platforms should involve local communities in governing their AI-driven platforms and take measures to create a workforce that includes marginalized populations;

Governments and companies that use AI must be more accountable and transparent in disclosing radically more information about the nature of their rulemaking and enforcement concerning expression on their platforms.

At a technological level, the West should avoid the so called AI race but proactively fortify their own and foreign digital diplomacy through robust government-backed policies and programs that foster a healthy AI ecosystem, like the EU, based on trust. In practical terms, this should include investing in public spatial data infrastructure projects in the Global South in order to monitor and control data flows, building better algorithms that effectively counter Chinese information strategies. The West should also seek ways to engage countries that violatehuman rights by showing them

the long-term benefits of a liberal world order and cushioning them from being victims of the current geopolitical and geoeconomic realignment contest.

Just like the European Union, these countries should adopt a more assertive policy stance towards Beijing over the openness of Chinese markets and the role of state-led firms, and in this context, the Chinese AI firms such as Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu also.

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US geopolitical interests offer Iran sanctions loophole amid mounting tension

by Dr. James M. Dorsey The Indian-backed Iranian port of Chabahar has emerged as a major loophole in a tightening military and economic noose and ever harsher US sanctions that President Donald J. Trump, reluctant to be sucked into yet another war, sees as the best way to either force Tehran to its knees or achieve regime change.

Alice Wells, the State Department’s assistant secretary for South and Central Asia, said during a meeting with Afghan foreign minister Salahuddin Rabbani that Chabahar had been exempted at Afghanistan’s request.

The State Department said earlier that the exemption was granted because it was related to “reconstruction assistance and economic development for Afghanistan, which includes the development and operation of Chabahar Port.”

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US officials said privately that the exemption was also a nod to India that sees Chabahar as vital for the expansion of its trade with Afghanistan and Central Asian republics. They said it was moreover an antidote to the Chinese backed port of Gwadar just 70 kilometres down the Arabian Sea coast in the troubled neighbouring Pakistani province of Balochistan.

That may be a long shot, certainly as long as India like much of the rest of the world is restricted by the US sanctions in its economic and commercial dealings with Iran. The exemption comes however as Chinese security concerns in Balochistan as well as Pakistan at large are mounting.

China’s massive US$45 billion plus Belt and Road-related infrastructure investment in Pakistan with Gwadar and Balochistan at its core has become a prime target for nationalist insurgents that has officials in Beijing worried. It has also reinforced long-standing doubts in some circles in Beijing about the viability of the project.

Dubbed the China Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC, China sees the project, involving a network of roads, railways and pipelines that would link Gwadar to China’s troubled THE BRIDGE

north-western province of Xinjiang as a key economic component of its brutal effort to Sincize the strategic region’s Turkic Muslim population.

“China, you came here (Balochistan) without our consent, supported our enemies, helped the Pakistani military in wiping our villages. But now it’s our time… Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) guarantees you that CPEC will fail miserably on the Baloch land. Balochistan will be a graveyard for your expansionist motives,” a commander of the BLA’s Majeed Brigade said in a video message released a week after militants stormed a hilltop, highly secured luxury hotel in Gwadar, killing five people.

The BLA claimed a month earlier responsibility for an attack on a convoy on a highway leading out of Gwadar in which 14 Pakistani military personnel died and an assault last year on the Chinese consulate in Karachi. The attacks and threats have prompted Chinese sceptics of China’s massive investment in Pakistan to express their doubts more publicly.

“Gwadar wants to be in the shipping business, but it has failed to do so. Pakistan’s economy is not very good, and this port has become very wasteful … under these circumstances, including with the hotel attack, how can China conduct its business?

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The roads and traffic cannot even be maintained,” said Beijing-based military analyst Zhou Chenming. While many in Pakistan believe that the BLA enjoys Iranian support and Iranians are convinced that Pakistan enables shadowy Islamic militants who have claimed responsibility for a rare suicide bombing in December in Chabahar and attacks on Revolutionary Guards elsewhere in the Iranian province of Sistan and Balochistan, fact of the matter is that both countries are vulnerable to Baloch insurgents.

The situation on both sides of the Iranian-Pakistani border is complicated by suspicions that the violence also has links to the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia and that the Baloch provinces of Pakistan and Iran could become a stage for a proxy war. Amid reports that China has reached out to Baloch nationalist leaders in exile, Pakistani security analyst Muhammad Amir Rana cautioned that the exiles may no longer be in control. “The new leadership of the Baloch insurgency largely hails from the educated middle class with urban backgrounds and is not hiding in Europe; therefore, it does not face the sort of constraints that exiled Baloch leaders do vis-àvis Iran,” Mr. Rana said.

Mr. Rana noted that Iran’s influence in Pakistani Balochistan was visible in oil smuggled across the border, Iranian prod-

ucts in grocery shops and the supply of electricity to the coastal strip of Makran that includes Gwadar. “For Pakistan, the security cost of CPEC is increasing which could frustrate the Chinese as well as foreign and local investors,” Mr. Rana warned.

For now, China confronts a more serious challenge in Gwadar, Balochistan as well as other parts of Pakistan that are struggling with un-related incidents of political violence compared to India and Chabahar.

That could change if the Saudi Iranian component of the low level Baloch insurgency spins out of control with the escalating stand-off between the United States and Iran.

Iran appears to have pinned its hopes that Chabahar will be shielded from the impact of regional tensions on the perceived US geopolitical need to protect India’s interest in Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Said Pir Mohammad Mollazeh, an Iranian Afghanistan and Central Asia scholar: “US longterm geopolitical interests, due to the lack of relations with Iran, require India to maintain its position in the region and protect India as a partner in Central Asia… Chabahar port is considered to be a very important and strategic which is an opportunity for our country to enable Iran to reduce its sanctions by means of economic exchanges in Chabahar.”

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The oceans play an important role in transportation of cargo in the world over, being the cheapest mode of transportation as compared to rail, road and air. According to International Chamber of Shipping, 90% of world trade is carried by 50,000 merchant ships. It includes all types of cargo like machinery, vehicles, different types of liquids, construction material, food items, and livestock. These ships need ports to be docked for loading and discharging of cargo. Countries having all weather deep draught ports, equipped with state of the art cranes and associated equipment to handle cargo efficiently are mammoth source of advancement of economy.

Ports of Pakistan and Gwadar’s Potential as a Transshipment Port

by Dr. Anjum Sarfraz

Seaports are also instrumental for generating employment opportunities through effects associated with these like crew for operations and personnel to work in repair workshops for sea going ships and different types of harbor vessels such of tugs, pilot boats, dredging vessels, and different types of other equipment . Logistics activities such as storing, distribution, container stacking, food arrangements for employees.

Personnel for inspection and custom requirements.

Ports attract investors to establish industries in the vicinity to import raw material and export finished goods. It is observed that large cities are located closer to the bigger ports. Infect ports can be the real pillars THE BRIDGE

of economic development of a up to 10 meters. The recently country. built extension of Karachi port has quay wall of 1500 meters Major considerations for a port which can dock mostly conare; less adverse weather af- tainer ships up to 16 meter fects, bigger ships (deep draught. draught and longer in length) can be docked, efficiently han- These berths have been given dling of loading and unloading on lease to South Asia Pakistan of cargo. In addition back yard Terminal (SAPT) for operations. area to handle cargo should It is a modern facility equipped have sufficient space. Hinter- with state of the art cranes and land connections should facili- other associated equipment. tate smooth flow of cargo to Karachi port has handled 55miland from the port. Pakistan has lion tons of cargo in 2017-18, about 1120 Km coast with which was about 55% percent three commercial ports. of the total cargo of Pakistan.

However, this port is now in the Karachi port was developed in center of the busy city Karachi, 1887 and is being operated by therefore cargo flow to and Karachi Port Trust (KPT). It has from the port has become very a total 33 berths. Out of these, problematic. three oil piers for handling liquid cargo like different types of Alternate routes needs to be exoil, molasses etc. Ships up to plored. It is suggested that a 12.5 meters draught can be pipe line for liquid cargo from berthed. Out of remaining 30, oil piers at Kemari to an approthree each on East and West priate location outside limits of wharves are for handling con- Karachi may be constructed. tainers which have been leased From here oil tankers may load to Pakistan International Con- the liquid cargo for upcountry. tainer Terminal (PICT) and For containerized and other Karachi International Container cargo a separate road may be Terminal (KICT) following Land built from Karachi port to link Lord Port Policy. high way. In the meantime only smaller 6 to 8 wheeler trucks These companies install their may be allowed to take cargo to own cranes, other equipment a separately built yard outside and have their own employees the limits of Karachi from for operations. where bigger trucks can take The ownership remains with the cargo to and from up counthe Port Authorities. Container try. The second port is Bin carriers up to 11.5 m draught Qasim which is also located in can be docked. Remaining Karachi. It has seven berths; berths can handle bulk carriers ships up to 12 meters draught and other type of ships having can be docked. It is being opercomparatively shallow draught ated by Port Qasim Authority MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU

(PQA). It was initially built to provide iron ore to Karachi Steel Mills.

Now it can handle all types of cargo including containers, oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). In the year 2017-18 it has handled 45 million tons of cargo which was 45 % of the total cargo. Bin Qasim port has sufficient spaces to build new berths when required. Its connection with hinterland is not posing problems because it is located well outside the main city. These two ports are meeting the requirements to handle all types of import and export of Pakistan which is presently around 100 million tons and have capacity to meet future requirements as well.

3.The third commercial port is Gwadar which is located on the Western edge of the coast in the province of Balochistan about 533 km from Karachi. It occupies a strategic location at the entrance of Persian Gulf overlooking the Arabian Sea. It is just outside the choke point, Straits of Hormuz, where 17 million barrels of oil passes every day. In 1997 the government appointed Task Force identified this fishing harbor to be developed as a commercial port.

The project could not be started due to economic sanctions after nuclear detonation in May 1998. It started in 2002 and first phase was completed 2007. It has 1000 meter quay wall to dock 14.5 meter draught

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ships. It has 3 multipurpose berths one RO – RO facility and one service berth. First ship was docked carrying 70,000 metric tons of wheat in March 2008. Originally it was built to supplement other two ports.

Now it has taken shape as key component of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It has been leased to China Overseas Port Holding Company (COPHC) for 40 years. It is designed to handle cargo of Chinese Western province, Xinjiang and at a later stage cargo of land lock countries, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Presently cargo of Afghanistan is being handled

by Karachi and port Qasim.

Gwadar port is ready for operation about 11 years before but it has not been operated to its optimum capacity yet. Mainly because the designed road and rail infrastructure up to Khunjerab pass has not been fully developed. However it meets the requirements to be oper-

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ated as a Transshipment Port Ocean littorals can discharge their cargo at Gwadar and in addition to CPEC cargo. smaller ships can take these to The transshipment concept the ports of destination. refers to the shipment of containers/ goods to an intermedi- It is pertinent to mention that ate port before being taken to Singapore area wise is a small the final destination. It plays a country, but its Port of Singacritical role due to infrastruc- pore is the world’s biggest ture limitations in smaller sea transshipment port as well as ports and shipping lines strate- the busiest port after Shanghai. gies to have minimum ports of It handled 36.6 million containcalls of their bigger ships. Now ers in 2018. The government of days an average, a container is Pakistan Ministry of Maritime handled 3 to 4 times between Affairs may consider the possithe first port of loading and the bility of operating Gwadar as a transshipment port. It will cerfinal port of discharge. tainly act as source of enhanceThe concept of transshipment ment of economy and to operation is increasing very provide job opportunities espefast. Gwadar port because of cially to residents of Balochisits strategic location closer to tan.

Persian Gulf, ability to handle deep draught ships, short access channel of only 4.7 km long, comparatively low cost labor, sufficient area to stack containers and other cargo, can be equipped to operate as a transshipment port. Bigger ships coming and going to Persian Gulf, and bound for Indian THE BRIDGE

Sri Lankan Attacks Linkage to International Terrorism

by Ishaal Zehra SRI LANKA has ramped up security nationwide as fears grow for its minority Muslims could face severe religious violence in the worst turmoil erupted after Easter bombings occurred this April. The authorities were forced to block Facebook and WhatsApp to stop people inciting further violence and imposed curfew after aggressive attacks on mosques and Muslim-owned businesses by mobs.

An eyewitness at a ransacked mosque said that a crowd of about 1,300 people surged into the mosque destroying and burning Korans, breaking every glass window and door and urinating in the water storage from which Muslims used to

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take ablution. In a separate account, several dozen people threw stones at mosques and Muslim-owned stores and a man was beaten in the Christian-majority town of Chilaw on the west coast in a dispute that started on Facebook.

These incidents came just three weeks after the deadly Easter Sunday attacks across the island nation that claimed the life of at least 359 people while injuring over 500. The near-simultaneous bombings at three churches and three luxury hotels around Batticaloa, Colombo and Negombo on the Easter day is believed to be one of the most meticulously planned, prĂŠcised terrorist attack in recent years.

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The Sri Lankan government has named the National Thowheed Jamath (NTJ) and Jammiyathul Millathu Ibrahim as the organizations behind the attack, while the Islamic State (IS) itself has claimed responsibility. Both accounts correlate as Zohran Hashim, the leader of the NTJ allegedly grown links with the IS in recent times.

Situation in Sri Lanka has now calmed down though, but the factors behind this destructive episode with far reaching consequences calls for an honest exploration of what happened on that fateful Easter day while tracking down the roots and causes. While the Islamic State has claimed responsibility, the real story is a bit more complicated than that.

There were serious lapses on part of defense officials, also acknowledged by the Sri Lankan president who further corroborated to the intelligence sections report which is confident of some international terror group linkages to these local terrorists. Reports reveal that the Sri Lankan government had received tip offs from Indian intelligence of an imminent jihadi attack. While New York Times asserts that Indian intelligence officials warned their Sri Lankan counter parts hours before the attack, the CNN report reveals that Indian intelligence services had passed on “unusually specific” information in the weeks before the attacks. Also, three differ-

ent sources told Reuters that Sri Lankan intelligence officials had been warned hours earlier

by India that attacks by Islamists were imminent. It was not clear though what action, if any, was taken.

Due to NTJ’s foreign links, it is highly likely that a foreign entity, most likely a foreign state or state intelligence agency was behind the attacks and that the men on the ground who have been captured are merely pawns in a much larger and even more dangerous game, observed Adam Garrie soon after the tragedy. After a month of Investigations it was revealed that the bombers used “Mother of Satan” explosives which bears IS mark as a favorite. This is a new sign of foreign involvement. Detectives said the back-pack bombs used in the attacks were manufactured by local terrorists with IS expertise.

In a photo released by IS in which it claimed responsibility for the blasts, Zohran was seen standing among few other masked men standing against the backdrop of IS flag. This attack highlights the outreach of IS and its leader Abu Bakar AlBaghdadi. Baghdadi, whose Iraqi identity has never been confirmed and his family background also unknown, is regarded as a top level agent of anti-Islamic forces wrecking the world under the guise of Islam. Being an Al-Qaeda militant leader for few years before

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carving out his own violent group known for serving the objectives of powers defaming Islam, he is a person with dubious character thus making the Daesh agenda more dubious.

The question is how Zahran got involved with the Daesh?

Zahran Hashim, the Sri Lankan who led those fateful attacks was known to have travelled to India in the months before he became one of the suicide bombers. Sri Lankan Army chief Senanayake revealed that Hashim had travelled to Tamil Nadu state in southern India and been in contact with IS there. It is interesting to note that all of Zahran’s videos are uploaded from India. Adam Garrie also supports the idea of Indo Centric terror networks.

An exclusive report by The Hindu newspaper says that Zahran, the mastermind behind Sri Lanka’s multiple terror attacks was trained in India.

Quotinga Sri Lankan top military source, the report claims that suspected terror leader Zahran Hashim spent “substantial time” training in “southern India”.

It was subsequently reported that other attackers who participated in the April massacre in Sri Lanka had spent a great deal of time in India too. Notably, it has been reported by journalists that the group was trained in Chennai in Tamil Nadu – the same location where LTTE had previously trained.

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For those who do not know LTTE, the group was founded in 1976 to wage a terrorist campaign in the name of Sri Lanka’s Hindu Tamils. It is well documented in history how India, through its intelligence agency R&AW provided arms, training and monetary support to the LTTE. The terror group was finally defeated in 2009 claiming the lives of more than 80,000 people in a decades-long conflict. After 10 years this fresh pattern of terrorism in South Asia with visible Indian imprints is worrisome.

Today, when the Sri Lankan Catholics have marked one month since bombings in a tearful ceremony, we need to understand that terrorism is real and flourishing through the societies where social injustice and religious repression are rampant. Letting our defenses

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down or neglecting the social and psychological determinants of extremism risks disastrous consequences.

Also, irresponsible commentary on these heinous acts of terrorism continue to peddle a uniquely Islamophobic line without actually taking into account the fact that whilst Sri Lanka has been the victim of terrorism for decades, there has never been an Islamist terrorist incident in the country’s history. Instead, Sri Lanka has suffered at the hands of Hindu majority LTTE and the secular far-left JVP. It may also be taken into account that these violent attacks took place just days before the prominent Belt and Road Forum in Beijing where Sri Lanka supposedly was about to play a major role.

The simultaneity is too striking to ignore.

The Capriciousness of Hybrid Warfare in South Asia

by Musawar Sandhu THERE IS A famous quote by Sun Tzu that ‘the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting’. This saying aptly describes the saga of ongoing Indian induced Hybrid warfare against Pakistan. To define Hybrid warfare, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has comprehensively addressed this issue in their annual report titled ‘Hybrid Threats: A Strategic Communication Perspective’. In this report, NATO has defined hybrid warfare as a ‘type of warfare that combines conventional, irregular and asymmetric activities in time and space’.

Hybrid warfare is not a new phenomenon. It is as old as the history of mankind and has been prevalent in different forms and orientations. I t is also known as Grey zone, Asymmetrical or New Generation warfare that aims to influence the diplomatic, political, military, economic, informational, intelligence and legal aspects of a state.

In addition, it strives to control the narrative through the use of irregular militias, clandestine support to secessionist movements, and economic morass.

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This has also been associated with the use of cyber-attacks to delegitimize governments, defame the adversary’s leaders through well-organized malicious campaigns and the propagation of narrative constru ction through false information.

One of the longstanding narratives that have been constructed and spread through targeted miss-information has been that Pakistan is a terror sponsor state.

This has been carried out to a large part by India that has alleged Pakistan of carrying out terrorism in various manifestations both internally and externally. It has been widely evident in the statements of its leaders, foreign diplomats and massive media industry all of which have employed the use of online Social Media to devastating effect.

At the external level, Indian parliament bombing in 2001, Mumbai mayhem in 2008, Pathankot attack in 2016 and Pulwama incident of 2019 have all been blamed on Pakistan in a highly consistent and immediate mannerdespite these claims being based largely on circumstantial evidence.

This narrative has been further reinforced using India’s diplomatic clout across the world to label Pakistan asa state that sponsors terrorismand to present itself as itsvictim as part of itsown hybrid warfare strategy.

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with which the Pakistan military’s external relations wing, the Director General Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) has taken to addressing the narrative that is being propagated.In combating slogans such as ‘Yeh Jo Dehshat Gardi Hai, Iss Ke Peechhay Wardi Hai’(behind this terrorism, is the [military] uniform) the ISPR is well aware that the mis-information campaign being waged is a direct threat to its own efficacy and objectives. This is why the ISPR has repeatedly The nature of this threat is fur- emphasized that these types of ther evident in the seriousness false slogans are intended to

At the internal level, India has supported various dissenting and disgruntled voices within Pakistan through the construction ofa number of false narratives. In this regard, the recent emergence of thePakhtunTahaffuz Movement (PTM) is being widely perceived as yet another instrument of hybrid warfare being used by Indian intelligence agenciesas an ironic response to Pakistanhighlighting the atrocities committed by Indian forces in Kashmir.

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dangerous, especially taking into consideration the wider geo-political scenario.Hence, in this New Generation warfare the government should exercise extreme care so that it maintains an adequate balance between upholding fundamental human rights on one hand while maintaining the legitimacy and the writ of the state Since hybrid warfare is all at the other, keeping in view of about winning the hearts and this ranging battle over hearts minds of the people therefore, and minds. the government can be seen adopting an all-inclusive approach to deal with the PTM leadership and its followers to sort out their issues. The DG ISPR has also acknowledged that while there are certain issues, they need to be addressed adequately, via dialogue and inclusive engagement by all stakeholders.

fect, Senator Mian Raza Rabbani on May 14, 2019, added that ‘this is a hybrid war which is taking place and we need to understand it correctly’ because in hybrid warfare the purpose is not to achieve the immediate defeat of the adversary but to demoralize it from all the fronts.

favor the Indian position vis-àvis Pakistan. That it is tantamount to demoralizing the armed forces of Pakistan that are in fact responsible for defending the territorial integrity and independence of Pakistan.

As is evident in these developments,Social Media platforms like Facebook and Twitter have been extensively used by the Indian intelligence agencies and PTM as a common public space to launch their sophisticated propaganda campaign and narrative against the armed forces of Pakistan.To this ef-

That theState should not leave its people to play in the hands of the enemy. Ahsan Iqbal former Minister for Interior has aptly described the situation in his words that ‘Fifth generation wars can’t be won by first-generation war [fare] tools. Battles of ideas can’t be won by bullets.

Nations only become stronger with inclusivity, dialogue and understanding’.

Therefore, at this critical juncture of time, the use of force to shut the dissenting voices of PTM and its ilk can prove catastrophicif used indiscriminately.Similarly, ignoring the veracity of this threat and not giving it due attention is also

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US-China Global Rivalry and BRI

by Irfan Khan

The quip, what I had struggled then, have lost now, is not an exaggeration about US. China’s military capability is not so high compared to US. What if, China has to engage in a conflict for a long time same the US has been in Middle East.

This is of much significance, to ponder.

Globally diplomatic and strategic campaign by US and its allies and security situation are main Challenges to BRI. For instance, Pakistan, a flagship partner of BRI, has been enduring insurgency, backed by multifold foreign agencies. Last year November attack on China’s consulate Karachi, bomb blast in Quetta, Baluchistan in April and recent Gwadar attacks mirror the security challenges to BRI. Stability in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s relationships with Afghanistan, India and Iran, would affect the progress of BRI.

For the similar reasons, Turkey and India had not attended “Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation”, held in Beijing, China last month. BRI spreads across Asia, Africa and Europe, subsuming 68 countries. BRI countries, sharing 30% of global GDP, 62% of world population will find it advantageous and economic driver of change. In reality, BRI will decide of what shape the world would be in 21 century and the next super power. However, BRI’s perennial It sounds well that, Belt and progress until its completions, Road Initiative (BRI), as of its is the real test of leaderships of China’s military capability is not first kind and biggest develop- Chinese and also of world. so high and sophisticated commental project in the history, pared to US. What if, China has will open its trade, economy US as global leader, is being to engage in a conflict for a and influence, across the hamstrung by US-Russia rivalry, long time same the US has world.BRI is transcontinental US-China fickle economic rela- been in Middle East. This is of and transitional, cooperation tionships, China’s openness to much significance, to ponder. and connectivity-based long- international market, Russia To circumvent proxies, if may term mega project to China and growing hegemony and catego- any, China and its allies, must its allies but countries like US, rially the “Globalization”. US’s share a sophisticated intelliTurkey and India have per- influence as major economy, gence—the most advance than ceived it as geopolitical, eco- and supplier has been fading ones the individual has today. away each passing day. nomic colonialization.

STARTING in 2001 from the low-cost industry, China has established most advanced technology today. To a first approximation, China is struggling at its best, to emerge as global power or super power, or in other words you might like to say about. However, in some respect, it still faces challenges, in domestic politics, military’s capability and most importantly what its equivocal vision of whether unipolar or multipolar world.

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Power Projection of China

by Maryam Zohra Warraich A coin has always two faces, an ferent aspects. As African analyst is ought to analyze the states were facing a massive number of problems at all levboth sides. els, many super powers came CHINA is considered as flag and ruled the world but they holder of soft power with a didn’t bothered the prosperity global agenda of peaceful rise. of third world countries.

At moment, the world is facing a new emerging global order by China started invested in the rise of multiple actors in the African region and assured the international arena. Now there chances of prosperity over are two school of thoughts who there. Due to this economic inare proposing contradictory tegration of China in Africa, a views like one wing regarded it demise of Indian influence in as optimistic Sino rise who be- that has been observed as well. lieves that China’s rise is peace- Their economic cooperation is ful. Its foreign policy is viewed based on model of helping unas one of the most harmonious derdeveloped countries by initipolicy ever structured. They be- ating the projects like Belt and lieve in the mutual cooperation Road Initiative. They are exand peaceful coexistence. Rise tending the helping hand to deof China is an optimistic oppor- veloping countries by selling tunity which is justified by dif- products at cheaper rates.

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On the other hand, there are supporters of pessimistic Sino rise who believe that China’s rise is threat for globe. This pessimism is oftenly prevailed by western analysts. They think that rise of China can disturb the existing world order. For example, China is competing with American economy in the international market.

They respect the ideologies of other countries, for example, China didn’t celebrated Pig year in Muslim countries. Regarding Pakistan, here the optimistic view is prevailed at higher context. Pakistan’s policy makers favor Chinese investment in Pakistan, as it will help Pakistan in economic prosperity.

China helps Pakistan at almost all of the international forum.

Friendship of china and Pakistan is the strongest one to be observed. Pakistan can learn a lot from them. The proper use of diplomacy, image building, projection of soft power and individualism in ideologies and beliefs. Long term planning strategies can be learned from them. China is all weather friend of Pakistan but self-skills are significant, as there is a famous Chinese saying, “to serve a guest by fish is a good way but to teach them how to catch fish is the best way to serve them.”

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Balance of power is coin of international politics, so other actors are emerging now. But the rise and demise of powers after a certain time period is one of the laws of nature. Specially America is feeling threatened by this emergence of China as a super power which can be seen through events like Huawei issue over 5G technology, its sensitization, trade war between china and America, claim of copyrights by America etc. increasing influence of China in majority of states is posing the seriousness of issue.

Chinese model of Confucianism is spreading as it has started practices in South Korea as well which is predicted through their cultural stimulus. Pessimistic school of thought deny the authenticity of foreign policy of China, they consider that it is a mere framework which has nothing to do with reality.In reality China’s behavior is like relations having towards Taiwan, South China Sea etc.

Interest of states are very important which may differ from each other. Lensing through these views, this unpredictable situation leaves a humans mind into a chaos, whether the rise of China is peaceful or just a myth?

Behind Indo-Pacific Vision

by Tridivesh Singh Maini

MIKE POMPEO’S recent speech titled, ‘America’s Indo-Pacific Economic Vision – at the Indo-Pacific Business Forum’ at the US Chamber of Commerce, Washington DC has been carefully observed across Asia. Beijing has understandably, paid close special attention to it. Pompeo emphasized on the need for greater connectivity within the Indo-Pacific, while also highlighting the role which the US was likely to play (including financial investments to the tune of 113 Million USD in areas like infrastructure, energy and digital economy). The US Secretary of State while stating that this vision was not targeted at anyone, he did make references to China’s hegemonic tendencies, as well as the lacunae of Chinese connectivity projects (especially the economic dimension).

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The Chinese reaction to Pompeo’s speech was interesting.

Senior Chinese government officials were initially dismissive of the speech, saying that such ideas have been spoken in the past, but produced no tangible results.

An article in the Global Times ‘Indo-Pacific strategy more a geo-political military alliance’ response is significant. What emerges clearly from this article is that Beijing is not taking the ‘Indo-Pacific vision’ lightly, and neither does it rule out the possibility of collaboration. The article is unequivocal, in expressing its skepticism, with regard to the geo-political vision of the Indo-Pacific vision. Argues the article:

While the geopolitical connotation of the strategy may lead to regional tensions and conflicts and thus put countries in the region on alert

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It is optimistic with regard to the geo-economic dimension, saying that this would be beneficial, and would promote economic growth and prosperity.

What must be noted is that, while the US vision for ‘Indo-Pacific’ has been put forward as a counter to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the article also spoke about the possible complementarities between the US vision for ‘Indo-Pacific’ and China’s version of BRI. While Mike Pompeo had spoken about a crucial role for US private companies in his speech, the article clearly bats in favor of not just between Indian, Japanese, Chinese, US governments as well as companies.

This is interesting, given the fact that China had gone to the extent of dubbing the Indo-Pacific vision as the foam on the sea” “that gets attention but will soon dissipate”

While there is absolutely no doubt, that there is immense scope for synergies between the Indo-Pacific vision, and BRI especially in the economic sphere. China’s recent openness towards the Indo-Pacific vision is welcome, but one of the propelling factors is the growing resentment against the economic implications of some BRI projects. While in South Asia, Sri Lanka is a classical example of China’s debt trap diplomacy, where Beijing provides loans at high interest rates (China has taken over the strategic Hambantota Project, since Sri Lanka has been un-

able to pay Beijing the whopping 13 Billion USD). Even in ASEAN grouping, countries are beginning to question the feasibility of BRI projects, Malaysia which shares close economic ties with Beijing is reviewing certain Chinese projects (this was one of the first steps undertaken by Mahathir Mohammad after taking over the reigns as Prime Minister of Malaysia).

Second, that while for long the Indo-Pacific Vision has been dubbed as a mere ‘expression’ and one of the criticisms has been a lack of gravitas in the economic context (and even now 113 Million USD is not sufficient). Developments over recent months, including the recent speech, indicate that The Department of State seems to be keen to dispel this notion that the Indo-Pacific narrative is bereft of substance.

Here it would be pertinent to point out, that Pompeo’s speech was followed by an Asia visit (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore).

Countries which are key stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific narrative need to keep in mind the following:

US needs to walk the course and apart from investing, more it needs to think of involving more countries, including Taiwan and more South Asian countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific partnership.

Second, the Indo-Pacific speaks in favor of democracy as well as greater integration, but not only are countries becoming more inward looking, even their stand on democracy, and Human Rights is ambiguous. Japan is trying to change its attitude towards immigration, and is at the forefront of promoting integration and connectivity within the Indo-Pacific.

Neither US, nor India, Japan or Australia have criticized China for its excesses against the Uighur minority in Xinjiang province.

Finally, there is scope for China to be part of the Indo-Pacific, but it needs to look at certain projects beyond the rubric of the BRI. A perfect instance is the Bangladesh China, India Myanmar BCIM Corridor which India was willing to join, but China now considers this project as a part of BRI.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Beijing can not be excluded from the ‘Indo-Pacific’ narrative, but it can not expect to be part of the same, on its own terms. It is also important, for countries like US and India to speak up more forcefully on issues (within their domestic contexts, as well as external) pertaining to Freedom of Speech, Human Rights and immigration issues, given that all these are essential for a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’

THE BRIDGE

Interesting developments in past few days

Some specific developments have taken place in the past few days, which have meant, that the Indo-Pacific has been in the news in recent days.

First, on Thursday May 31, 2018 US Pacific Command or ‘Pacom’ was renamed as IndoPacific Command. Speaking on the occasion of Change of Command, US Defence Secretary, James Mattis put forth the reasons for the renaming of Pacom:

“In recognition of the increasing connectivity between the Indian and Pacific oceans, today we rename the U.S. Pacific Command to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command,…. Over many decades, this command has repeatedly adapted to changing THE NARRATIVE of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ has un- circumstance and today carries derstandably gained currency over the past that legacy forward as America year. Since 2017, there has been an increasing focuses west.” focus on the narrative of the Indo-Pacific. The usage of the term Indo-Pacific, as opposed to Second, at the Annual Shangri‘Asia-Pacific’ (which the Chinese prefer) by US La Summit, US Defence SecrePresident Donald Trump during his trip to Asia tary, James Mattis pulled no (in November 2017), the re-emergence of the punches, while speaking of Quad Grouping (India, US, Australia, Japan) China in the context of the after a decade, and the repeated usage of the South China Sea dispute. Matexpression, ‘Free and Fair Indo-Pacific’ on a tis remarked: number of occasions, by top officials of the Trump Administration, including former Sec- “There are consequences that retary of State, Rex Tillerson, have resulted in will continue to come home to roost the ‘Indo-Pacific’ drawing attention.

The Indo-Pacific narrative and China

by Tridivesh Singh Maini

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Mattis also referred to some steps which the US has taken recently, such as exclusion of China from the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC exercises), as well as two US ships sailing in Spratly Islands. He warned of more such consequences, if Beijing did not change its approach towards the SCS dispute.

Finally, members of the Quad met in Singapore (this was the second such occasion, since the meeting last year). India was represented by the Joint Secretary East Asia. A statement released by the Ministry of External Affairs stated, that while recognizing the centrality of the ASEAN to the Indo-Pacific architecture, Quad members also “reaffirmed their Indian PM Modi also referred to support for a free, open, prosthe Indo-Pacific Concept, dur- perous and inclusive Indo-Paing his visit to Indonesia, as cific region.” well as the Shangri La Dialogue.

New stakeholders in Quad During PM Modi’s Indonesia visit, a document making spe- If one were to look beyond Matcific reference to the Indo-Pa- tis’ remarks and Modi’s South cific was released. Said the East Asia visit, as well as his document: address at the Shangri La Summit. It is important to take note “free, open, transparent, rules- of two new stakeholders in the based, peaceful, prosperous Indo-Pacific narrative — Indoneand inclusive Indo-Pacific re- sia and Sri Lanka. So far, the gion, where sovereignty and ter- emphasis has largely been on ritorial integrity, international Quad grouping. law, in particular UNCLOS, freedom of navigation and over- A delegation of US officials visflight, sustainable development iting Sri Lanka spoke about the and an open, free, fair and mu- importance of Sri Lanka in the tually beneficial trade and in- context of the Indian Ocean. vestment system are respe cted”.

Congressman Mac Thornberry, Chairman of the powerful During the Shangri La Summit, House Armed Services Comthe Indian PM referred to ‘sta- mittee stated: ble, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific Region” as an “im- ‘The American relationship with portant pillar of strategic ties Sri Lanka goes back to hunwith the US. He did manage to dreds of years, and Congress is strike a fine balance, and was committed to deepening it not aggressive. going forward. Sri Lanka is

a vital hub in the Indian Ocean, one that is key to keeping the lanes of commerce and security free and open’.

Off late, Sri Lanka has expressed its discomfort with China’s increasing presence, and has sought investments from other countries like Japan and India. The Hambantota Project (of which China has gained lease for 99 years) is often cited, as an important instance of China’s ‘Debt Trap Diplomacy’. A report by the Centre for Global Development describes this best and states that Beijing by pushing ahead certain projects ‘introduces new debt vulnerabilities in developing countries and risks growth setbacks’. The US delegation also took note of this aspect.

Relevance of Sri Lanka and Indonesia

Sri Lanka and Indonesia both are strategically important in the context of the Indo-Pacific, what also makes their participation relevant is the fact that both also share close economic ties with China, (though the former is off course vary of China’s increasing strangehold).

THE BRIDGE

Conclusion

Indo-Pacific narrative can draw greater resonance, if there is an emphasis on connectivity, and providing an alternative (so far Japan and India have been the only countries which have attempted to do so, the latter off course does face a resource crunch) to China’s infrastructural economic projects some of which are economically unfeasible. Apart from this, there have to be more stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific narrative (Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh), so as to have a vision which extends beyond the China factor in the South China Sea.

It is also important now for countries which are part of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ grouping, to define its geographical scope, and have a clearer economic vision as well as accelerate projects

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like the Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor (a brain child of the US), which can complement India’s neighborhood outreach in South Asia, ties with South East Asia as well as Japan’s projects in South and South East Asia.

While the US has spoken about a Free and Fair Indo-Pacific, Trump’s fickle mindedness even towards allies on key economic and strategic economic issues is doing no favors to anyone or the narrative of a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’. A strategic vision has to be matched by a concrete and cohesive long term view of robust economic linkages. It is also important to realize, that in the longer term, the economic vision of the ‘Indo-Pacific’ can not necessarily ignore China, which with all its challenges

and constraints, has taken a lead in terms of pushing for connectivity and economic linkages.

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A few days later, at the ShangriLa Dialogue (SLD) conference in Singapore, the idea of IPP was spelled out by the American side, with an emphasis on the aspects of regional security. When commenting on the change of the name of the American command, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi remarked that for India the unification of the Indian and Pacific oceans into a single geographic array looked “natural”.

Chimeras and Realities of the Indo-Pacific Partnership

by Vladimir Petrovsky THE NEW AMERICAN initiative for the creation of the Indo-Pacific Partnership (IPP) has grabbed the spotlight in many political discussions of late. Although the idea to set up such a forum was proposed at the end of 2017 and to this day has been no more than a general slogan, now the Trump administration seems set to stake on it. Why?

As a reminder I would like to point out that on May 30 the US Secretary of Defense announced the renaming of the Pacific Command into the Indo-Pacific Command (although the Command’s responsibility zone a priori included the Indian Ocean waters).

The practical implementation of the IPP strategy will most likely be carried out both through the strengthening of US bilateral relations with countries of the region and through the creation of multilateral cooperation formats. The most important of these cooperation initiatives is the so-called.

“Quadro”, which is designed to bring together the four “democracies” of the Indo-Pacific region – the United States, Japan, Australia and India.

It is believed that the United States, Australia, Japan and India, united in the Quadro, will consider the two oceans a single strategic space. Since 2016, the United States, India and Japan have been conducting joint naval exercises “Malabar”.

Washington is clearly giving New Delhi ever more attention, counting on India as one of the future regional security poles, along with Japan, Australia and its other allies.

THE BRIDGE

The feasibility evaluation of IPP was proposed in the concept of “free and open Indo-Pacific strategy”, FOIP). And the recent report of the US National Security Strategy states that “in the Indo-Pacific region, there is a geopolitical competition between free and repressive visions of the world order.”

Apparently, this is about China.

Therefore, the idea of IPP, which is motivated by the value and geostrategic approach, did not cause immediate enthusiasm from the American allies in the region.

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Assessing the US initiative to establish IPP, Japanese experts, for example, say that Japan has no objections in principle to such an initiative as long as it is “transparent and inclusive”.

To this, they add that this initiative can play a role in the development of interregional relations involving East Asia, South Asia, Africa and Eurasia; the main thing is that it should not be directed against China, since Japan is interested in China’s sustained development and Japan-China relations.

In response, South Korea argues that it is too early to suggest a full approval for the IPP as this initiative has been put forward in the form of a general slogan. Seoul has yet to understand what it is and needs more time to examine it in more detail. If it turns out that the initiative aims to deter China, participation in it of the Republic of Korea will be a “difficult choice” to make.

According to experts of the US Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Indo-Pacific region may account for half of

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the global economy within decades, but this requires investments of almost $ 26 trillion. Now it is obvious that from the point of view of trade and economic cooperation, the IPP is set to replace the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP), which Donald Trump chose to reject, and offer an alternative.

US Secretary of Commerce William Ross explains in this respect that TPP agreements require too much effort to conclude and too complicated: “With such major geopolitical phenomena as the TPP, it is impossible to carry out a controlled experiment.”

Verbally, Washington welcomes China’s contribution to regional development, emphasizing that IPP will not be aimed at containing China or opposing China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

At the same time, the emphasis is put on the need to adhere to “international standards of transparency, the rule of law and sustainable financing”.

However, in practice, the main reason underlying IPP is the attempt to conduct a “controlled” geostrategic and geoeconomic experiment, by constructing a partnership framework artificially, in the American interests, without taking into account the interests of potential partners who are not interested in political or economic deterrence of China

Supporters of conventional geopolitical approaches say that the creation of IPP means the advance of the US into Eurasia still further from the east to the west by strengthening ties with predominantly “naval” powers in the eastern and southern peripheries of the Eurasian continent (from South Korea to countries of the Arabian Peninsula) and with island states of the Pacific (from Japan to New Zealand). The main purpose of the IPP is the political and military-strategic deterrence of China, the creation of a rigid “framework” that would prevent Beijing from assuming a dominant position in the region.

partnership by developing security mechanisms and fostering cooperation in the land areas of the Eurasian “heartland”.

In the first place, such mechanisms involve the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), measures towards linking the Eurasian integration and the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and the consistent implementation of the Russian initiative to establish the Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP).

India’s participation in these organizations and initiatives is a matter of special concern, while the three-party consultative arrangement Russia-IndiaWhatever the case, American China needs further strength attempts to artificially “patch ening as well. together” the IPP “from the material at hand” indicate the need First published in our partner Infor the Russian diplomacy to ternational Affairs boost efforts to cement the Russian-Chinese strategic THE BRIDGE

Despite fact that China’s strong ambition to enter European market through BRI makes Georgia one of the most important players in the region (it has FTA both with China and EU) its high-level officials did not attend the forum (Emerging-Europe, January 3, 2018).

China’s changing interests in South Caucasus

by Orkhan Baghirov ON APRIL25-28,“Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation” took place in the capital city of China.

From South Caucasus region only Azerbaijan leader Aliyev was in the list of 36 top-Level attendees (Diplomat, April 27).As the Azerbaijan was participating first forum in 2017 on ministerial level, visit of President in second forum demonstrates intention of both sides for close cooperation within the framework BRI. MODERNDIPLOMACY.EU

Generally, South Caucasus region was not in the Chinese focus when the BRI project was unveiled in 2013.Its attitude to the region has changed afterwards. Being part of the Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor, South Caucasus has strategic importance for China.

At the same time, transportation projects such as Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and Anaklia Deep-Sea Port has increased significance of the region.

From geopolitical point of view stability in Azerbaijan and Georgia’s political problems with Russia creates ground for Chinese presence in Caucasus. It is clear that having political problems with West Russia is not willing to confront China.

Therefore, using these opportunities and establishing good relations both with Georgia and Azerbaijan China is able to avoid its biggest rival in Eurasia and use shortest way to European markets (Trend.az, April 10).

Importance of South Caucasus countries within the BRI framework is not same. Armenia has less potential for BRI.

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It does not have enough transportation infrastructure and its borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey closed. Armenia has a potential to become a corridor to markets of Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and Iran.

However, it does not have borders with the members of EEU and railway project between Armenia and Iran is not viable due its high costs ($3.2 billion) and less importance in commercial means (Vestn ikkav kaza, August 25, 2018).Also, China has borders with two biggest members of EEU and could easily reach EEU markets through them.

In the case of Georgia, China is the biggest foreign investor.

China’s Hualing Group controls Kutaisi free industrial zone (FIZ), owns Basis Bank, hotels, wine export enterprise. It also constructs “Tbilisi Sea New City” near Tbilisi Sea in which company has already invested around 150 million dollars (hualing.ge).Another Chinese company CEFC Energy owns 75% of Poti FIZ (Cbw.ge, March 20).

Unlike the Georgia, mostly state-owned Chinese companies have invested in Azerbaijan. One of these companies CTIEC Group constructed biggest cement factory in Azerbaijan in 2014.China also has a great interest on Baku International Sea Trade Port as it is one of the main ports within BRI. Based on intergovernme

ntal grant agreement China transferred $2 million worth equipment to the port (Azernews, April 4, 2018).

Despite fact that Azerbaijan is China’s key trade partner in the South Caucasus (it accounts 43 percent of China’s trade turnover in the region) it has massive investments in Georgia (Azernews, April 25). It mostly related to political orientation of these countries. Georgia follows more western orientation that made it more attractive for China while Azerbaijan implements balanced strategy and it does not want to feel China’s pressure. Besides, Azerbaijan is not in need of financial assistance like Armenia and Georgia as it has enough financial reserves.

However, recent developments of Sino-Azeri economic relations within the framework of the Second Belt and Road Forum creates new perspectives for China’s presence in South Caucasus. During the forum 10 agreements worth of 821 million USD has been signed (Azvision.az, April 24).

These contracts cover different economic spheres of non-oil sector including the construction of a tire factory in the Sumgayit chemical-industrial park, the creation of a 300-hectare greenhouse complex in the Kurdamir region of Azerbaijan, and the construction of agrological industrial parks in the Guba, Goychay and Khachmaz re

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gions (Turan.az April 24).If we take in account that Chinese investors have invested800 million USD in the economy of Azerbaijan since independence, obtained agreements in the forum worth of same amount shows China’s growing interest in Azerbaijan.

Nevertheless, it does not mean that China’s preference of Georgia has changed. Within the BRI project both Azerbaijan and Georgia are of geopolitical importance for China. It is in China’s interest to boost bilateral relations with both of countries. It is apparent that China already has considerable investments in Georgia and now it is time to deepen cooperation with Azerbaijan. At the same time Azerbaijan is not going to cross limits of its balanced policy. Chinese companies that signed agreements in second forum are government affiliated companies as well. It again shows that Azerbaijan is willing to deepen cooperation without creating room for pressure in its domestic economy.

THE BRIDGE

In fact, despite analysts’ positive views, Georgia and the South Caucasus transit corridor has yet to feature in official versions of the Chinese Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). Overall, China has been cautious. Russia’s factor too might have been at play when Beijing only minimally involved itself in the economy of Georgia. But the biggest obstacle has been geographic barriers such as the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus range, difficult Georgian terrain as well as the Black Sea.

China Set to Increase its Influence in Georgia

by Emil Avdaliani CHINA-GEORGIA relations since the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 have been positive in both the economic and overall political sense. However, they are often overestimated by analysts in Georgia and elsewhere. Bilateral trade growth as well as a gradual increase in Chinese investments in Georgia have oft been hailed as exceptional and a marked sign of increased Chinese influence over Tbilisi.

Still, in a number of articles for GT, I have suggested that the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is not static in nature and, like any other trade routes in ancient or medieval periods, it does respond to rising challenges and opportunities. Another suggestion was that Georgia, if it improves its railroads, roads and ports infrastructure inside the country, will become more attractive to China and its BRI.

Indeed, there are signs proving this scenario. On 24 May, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Georgia. This is crucial as it is the first official visit of a Chinese foreign minister to Georgia in 23 years. According to the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the focus of the True, economic growth has minister’s visit was to underbeen taking place, but this has stand more about Georgia’s fubeen but a small portion of the ture and its potential as an important transit state. real potential.

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The visit to Georgia came as a part of the Chinese delegation’s regional trip. China and Armenia on Sunday signed an agreement for mutual visa exemption for ordinary passport holders.

The Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the visit to Georgia confirmed the “clear vision” of China regarding Georgia and its role in China’s plans for large-scale projects. Here, most likely BRI was meant, a clear emphasis on Georgia’s potential as a transit state.

“Trade, investments, transport, as well as partnership within the frames of international organizations, were set as the major priorities for future cooperation,” states the Georgian Foreign Ministry.

The Chinese Foreign Minister said that “China is implementing a foreign policy which is based on the principles of peaceful coexistence. We are ready to develop friendly relations between our countries further. We have a firm position that all countries are equal, regardless of their size. We respect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia and other countries.”

China’s interests in Georgia are also intricately linked to the latter’s territorial problems with Russia. For Tbilisi, it is important that China supports it on the issue of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali. Indeed, the issue of

the Georgian occupied territories was also raised during the meetings and Georgian officials mentioned the “high importance” of Chinese support for Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Chinese delegation’s visit follows the Georgian Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development, Maya Tskitishvili’s, trip to Beijing, where she attended the second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation.

More importantly, she signed an agreement on cargo and passenger transportation with Chinese Minister of Transport Li Xiaopeng.

Overall, the Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister’s visit to Tbilisi has been important, but atten-

tion in the Georgian media was only paid to official statements; no analysis has yet been made.

However, what is crucial is the timing of the visit, as China and the US are locked in a geopolitical battle over influence in the Indo-Pacific world. Since Georgia is close to the US in terms of military and political cooperation, it will be interesting to see how far China-Georgia cooperation will go. One thing is likely to happen: Beijing will try to increase its influence in Georgia through economic and various political moves.

Author’s note: first published in Georgia Times

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How Will Uzbekistan Become A Regional Transit Hub?

by Fuad Shahbazov ON 5TH APRIL of 2019, a meeting of the railway authorities of Kazakhstan, China, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan took place in Almaty dedicated to advancing cargo traffic along the North-South Transit Corridor. In fact, the participation of Uzbekistan in the project will shorten the route of goods from China to Iran and forward.

Being a part of the ambitious North-South Transit Corridor — a 7,200 km long multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road routes for moving freight between India and Europe —the C h i n a - K a z a k h s t a n - Tu r k menistan-Uzbekistan-Iran railway can shape the geopolitics of Central Asia.

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The decision had been made at the time when Uzbekistan, under the leadership of Shavkat Mirziyoyev, embraced a new path for the country’s further development. Faced with a collapsing economy, international isolation, and a growing number of unemployed youth following years of Karimov’s misrule, the country had little choice but to open up. Unlike his predecessor, President Mirziyoyev adopted a clear strategy document (namely, Uzbek Development Strategy 2017-2021) with the aim of further liberalization of the economy and the development of local infrastructure and cargo routes.

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It is safe to note that Uzbekistan now seeks new opportunities to be a key player in the region by promoting various transit projects. Railway diplomacy, in particular, is central to this strategy. Undoubtedly, Central Asian countries including Uzbekistan require large-scale investments in nearly all sectors, but developing regional and transnational connectivity is a sound economic opportunity to stimulate further growth and diversification.

It is not the only regional transit project that Uzbekistan joined recently. In the last three years, Uzbekistan’s new government has shown eagerness to boost cooperation with countries like India, Pakistan, and Afgha nistan aiming to become a Central Asian gateway. It is worthy to note that from 2017, Uzbekistan is set to become the biggest trading partner of Pakistan from Central Asia since the bilateral trade between the two countries has improved from $36 million to over $90 Hence, for Central Asian states million in 2018. these infrastructure projects are not merely grand invest- Moreover, in November of ments but are also tickets to 2018, Foreign Minister Abdujoin a global trade and geo- laziz Kamilov visited Pakistan graphic reorientation toward and was received by Pakistan’s market economies in Western Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Europe and South and East Several important issues were Asia. put on the table, including the proposal of constructing a railUzbekistan joined the new rail- road connection between the way project as an attempt to two countries that would pass regulate the flow of containers through Afghanistan. Considerthrough its territory to Iran via ing the substantial hydrocarbon Bolashak station. According to reserves of Uzbekistan in oil reports, the volume of traffic and natural gas, Pakistan could along the China-Kazakhstan- have particular benefits from Turkmenistan-Iran corridor last this cooperation. year amounted to 1 thousand The proposed railway connecTEU (container in 20-foot equiv- tion is supposed to link Pakalent). It is expected that the istan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan number will grow as all involved and possibly India. Uzbekparties have agreed on inte- istan’s government pledged grated tariff rates for goods $500 million from its own funds transportation. The total length for this critical railway line, of the China-Kazakhstan-Turk- which, if realized, will become menistan-Iran route is about the shortest transit route to the 10,000 kilometers, and the total Iranian port of Chabahar. Howtravel time is about two weeks, ever, the Indian government did which is twice as fast than by not immediately agree to this proposition. sea, which takes 25-30 days.

For Uzbekistan, the proposed trans-Afghan railway project is critical in terms of strengthening its position as a crucial transit point of Afghan goods to other Commonwealth of Independent States’ (CIS) and Chinese markets. Until now Uzbekistan has established a transit hub in its Termez city, which borders with Afgha nistan.

The hub includes a railway line, station, and trade center for Afghan goods. Nevertheless, Uzbekistan seemingly intends to develop the railway connection by linking it with Mazar-iSharif and Herat cities, which will open a direct link to the Iranian Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports.

Additionally, Uzbekistan is keen to encourage India – a global economic giant, to take an active part in its regional initiatives. Uzbekistan’s territory opens new horizons for India as the railway will allow India a more straightforward route to the markets of Afghanistan, Central Asia, and the wider Eurasian region.

Currently, in large part due to the lack of direct transport routes, trade turnover between India and the Central Asian states remains far from its potential, and does not exceed 1.1 percent. Moreover, Uzbekistan eyes to gain access to the Indian Ocean’s sea trade routes through the implementation of the trans-Afghan railway.

THE BRIDGE

All regional transit projects such as the aforementioned railway plans create the necessary conditions for the further development of intercontinental transport corridors. Notably, this line of development underscores Uzbekistan’s target to attract Chinese investments and possibly to enter into Chinese markets by its development of localand regional infrastructure and railway connections. For instance, the construction of the aforesaid Mazar-i Sharif-Herat route will allow goods to get from Afghanistan to China in merely three days via Andijan city in Uzbekistan. Thus, giving Uzbekistan’s potential as a transit country, economic benefits area matter of time.

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The recently initiated railway diplomacy strategy is a part of Uzbekistan’s efforts to implement long-harbored projects to diversify the economy and boost external linkages.

Notwithstanding the fact, the government still faces not only geopolitical but also financial challenges that need to be resolved.

Though, the new government seems to lack of practical solutions for now. This includes the ongoing economic deficit and regional security problems, in particular in Uzbek – Afghan border. Yet, railway diplomacy is poised to help Uzbekistan rekindle its relations with major foreign economic partners and will also enable it to expand its

influence across the region. In order to achieve this goal, the country needs to build constructive dialogue with neighboring countries just to prevent the future possible economic or political unrest. Indeed, it is an important step for the region’s long-term development plan.

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Unfortunately, corruption, poor governance, nepotism, and geopolitics have made Pakistan so miserable that we have to borrow money to pay back loans. The nation is facing debt of around 100 billion US Dollars and a severe shortage of foreign exchange. The major source of earning foreign exchange in Pakistan was Export and Foreign remittances; unfortunately, both have declined in the last few years. The situation may convert into crisis when the loan installment is due to pay back and no foreign exchange available.

Pakistan: Is it in Midst of Debt Trap?

by Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan PAKISTAN is a country with a population of 210 million, 6th largest country by population, 23rd largest in term of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), and 40th largest in terms of nominal gross domestic product.

Rich in natural resources, blessed with an excellent climate, suitable for agriculture.

Pakistan has a youth workforce of around 140 million under the age of 40 years; it has a unique geo-strategic location, possessing the high potential for rapid development.

Prior to 1990, Pakistan utilized IMF loans temporarily to bridge minor balance of payments gaps. And it was all right. However, the abolition of Foreign Exchange Controls by the Pakistan Government in 1991 was a wrong-policy move and was the beginning of the crisis which we are faced with till today. The ruling elite wanted to be free to convert/launder their ill-gotten wealth in Rupees into Dollars and send it abroad. This same trick was employed by successive governments one after other.

During 2013 -18 went totally mad using the old trick and kept on borrowing Dollars, again and again, to keep the Rupee at around Rs100 so that they could convert their mega commissions from mega projects into Dollars and send it abroad. At the same time, they were accumulating external THE BRIDGE

debt by unrestrained resort to Sovereign Guarantees on mega projects and borrowing repeatedly from the IMF. The external debt kept mounting to unsustainable levels and reached over $100 billion. Chinese loan on CPEC projects is around 6 billion only, which constitute less than 10% of total loan. The major part of foreign loan is from IMF, World Bank, Paris Club and western donors.

IMF is full of experts and no doubt on their intellectuality and scholarly capacities. The question is why did the IMF keep on lending without assessing the payback capacity of Pakistan? Why did not impose the same kind of severe conditionality as they are doing now? Why not the IMF did improved governance in Pakistan? Why did not IMF asked for stopping corruption? Etc many such questions.

The answer is simple. Our adversaries wanted to lead us into a Debt Trap and the NRO which they forced on Gen Musharraf as well as the crisis which was engineered to oust him, were part of the Grand Strategy to bring Pakistan down to its knees unable to protect its vital national security interests – undermine the Pakistan Armed Forces, its nuclear and conventional deterrence and its strategic relationship with China.

They want us to remain economically weak and dependent.

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Especially, the current program under consideration – 22nd program, is we planned the trap. It is obvious that an amount of US Dollars 6 Billion over a period of 39 months, on an average less than US Dollars 2 billion a year, is not less than a joke. Will it help Pakistan at all? While Pakistan has sought enough amount from friendly countries like Saudi Arabia, China, and the UAE.

If they’re still a small gap, can be sourced from any other friendly country. The conditions placed by the IMF are so heartening that the people of Pakistan feel ashamed. If the experience of the previous 21 programs was not satisfactory, how to expect the new one, 22nd will solve the real issues of Pakistan?

solved by the Government. It is a policy issue and needs an understanding of the issue. It may not cost the Government any huge funds, just reforms to facilitate exports are required by policy incentives. The second major source of earning of foreign exchange was Foreign remittances, which were witnes sed a sharp decline over a period of a few years. Overseas Pakistanis may be facilitated to transfer their funds into Pakistan in a friendlier manner.

Legal complications may be removed and procedures may be formed more convenient.

IMF may force the government to collect more tax, which will cause more difficulties for common citizens. The Business community may escape the country, but salaried persons will be victimized. Inflation and In a matter of fact, borrowing price hike in the domestic marmoney is bad, and borrowing ket may create unrest and money to pay back the loan is chaos in the country. worst. It means, the system is not delivering or improving the We must avoid debt trap and economy that is why there is a think wisely, smartly and proneed to borrow more. We can- tect our national interests. not keep this habit for a long time. We must change this habit and should change now, the sooner the better.

We need to focus on generating wealth. The best source of earning foreign exchange is by increasing export. Pakistan does have a huge potential of enhancing exports, but the bottlenecks are required to be re

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7 Must Visit Sites in Chiang Rai “CHIANG RAI is steeped in culture and tradition, with so much to explore and a lot to be discovered,” says Tobias Emmer, Camp Manager at Four Seasons Tented Camp Golden Triangle, “Don’t leave Chiang Rai without seeing these sites!”

These seven must-do experiences journey through the culture, tradition and rich history of this region.

Hall of Opium

Located close to the very fields where millions of poppies once bloomed, the Hall of Opium museum offers a comprehensive look at the historical opium trade in the region, the charac-

ters involved, and the lives of addicts. “The dark reality of this period in Chiang Rai’s history and revival is brought alive through modern interactive displays and multimedia presentations,” explains Tobias.

Royal Legacy Tour

Home to the Princess Mother’s Royal Villa, these beautiful grounds are a horticultural masterpiece, with over 70 species of cool-climate flowers flourishing alongside native plants and trees. The garden blooms all year round, forming a splendid hillside tapestry that changes with the seasons. With the recent addition of the Tree

Top Walk, guests can stroll along a 30 metre (90 feet) high walkway, bordered by lush treetops and exceptional views.

Golden Triangle Excursion

This experience begins with a cruise down the majestic Mekong River on-board a traditional, custom-designed longtail boat. Making its way to the heart of Golden Triangle, where Thailand, Myanmar, and Laos converge, the spectacular view that encompasses three different countries are unmatched.

“Guests can soak in the sights and sounds of the Golden Triangle, as they get from one place to another like a local, THE BRIDGE

hopping onto a ‘songtaew,’ followed by a tuk-tuk, to visit a vibrant local market and a revered ancient temple, Chedi Luang. Our Camp Guides are very knowledgeable and will relate fascinating stories and interesting facts along the way,” says Tobias.

Colour of Chiang Rai

A curated experience by Four Seasons Tented Camp Golden Triangle, guests can explore the vibrant culture of Chiang Rai through its most striking sights.

“We recommend to start your journey at the Chinese Temple (Wat Huay Pla Kung), a dragonflanked staircase leads you to a

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nine-storey golden pagoda, while a massive white statue of the Buddha offers blessings,” he shares. Next, guests can discover the bizarre beauty of the White Temple (Wat Rong Khun), designed by renowned Thai visual artist, Chalermchai Kositpipat. “This is one of the most visited temples in Chiang Rai!” confirms Tobias. At Singha Park, lush greenery takes center stage: guests can stroll through tropical gardens and rolling plantations, while enjoying a cup of coffee. Before returning to the Camp, witness three countries coming together on the banks of Mekong River and enjoy the view of the Golden Triangle.

Doi Mae Salong Chinese Village & Tea Plantation

The Mandarin speaking residents have preserved their cherished customs for generations, such as the cultivation of ‘high mountain oolong tea’ – perfectly suited to the high altitude and cool climate of their village. “Your Camp Guide will reveal the fascinating political history of the region as you drive through the gorgeous mountain scenery that gives this areas its other name ‘Little Switzerland’,” explains Tobias.

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Chiang Rai Kaleidoscope

Besides vividly-coloured temples, this curated itinerary includes other intriguing spots.

“Guests can marvel at the Blue Temple (Wat Rong Suea Ten), an intricate masterpiece wrought in blue and gold which remains hidden from most tourists,” says Tobias. Guests can then take a tour of the Black House (Baan Dam Museum), a cluster of 40 black ‘houses’ showcasing a private collection of provocative art. At Doi Din Dang Pottery, guests get a up-close-and-personal experience with potters at work, while browsing their lovely wares, made from the red clay, native to this region.

Craft Route

For an immersion into Northern Thailand’s rich crafts heritage – including textiles, weavings, carvings, silverwork and papermaking – Tobias recommends a visit to Doi Tung Cottage Industries Centre. “This is a Royal Project initiative, where artisans make mulberry paper and roast locally-grown coffee on site.” At the Doi Dung Daeng Centre, guests can witness the creation of stunning ceramics, “We’ll take you to an excellent local shop, renewed for its highquality antique textiles, hilltribe artifacts, beadwork and carvings,” smiles Tobias.

THE BRIDGE

Everything about Abu Dhabi’s newest business and lifestyle destination

Al Maryah Island

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ABU DHABI, meaning Land of the Gazelle, has been at crossroads of commerce and culture for centuries. Today, the Emirate, is a modern, cosmopolitan hub for travellers from around the world to explore this growth. Al Maryah Island is the perfect vantage point for this.

The new heart of the the capital offers visitors and residents exceptional business and lifestyle experiences. Here are our top three reasons to choose Four Seasons for your next visit to Abu Dhabi:

Location, location, location

Director of Rooms, Mark Syputa feels Four Seasons Hotel Abu Dhabi at Al Maryah Island is perfectly positioned to offer business and leisure travelers the best of the UAE’s capital:

“What I love about Al Maryah Island is that you have all the conveniences of direct connecti ons to downtown Abu Dhabi, with the added benefits of being able to walk to Abu Dhabi Global Market and the surrounding office towers. Add to that the close proximity to key cultural attractions (like Louvre Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque, Qasr al Watan, and

leria, the city’s most exclusive shopping experience filled with the luxury brands. This is only set to amplify with the city’s latest mega-mall Al Maryah Central opening mid-2019 with over 400 retail outlets and 100 World-class shopping and din- restaurants. ing Health & Wellness focus Al Maryah Island has a wealth of world-class dining and shop- Health & Wellness is another ping. Exotic flavors from near key focus. The Island is fortuand far are the biggest attrac- nate to have one of the region’s tion with over forty options in- premier hospitals, Cleveland cluding our very own award- Clinic, which has some of the winning restaurants Butcher & world’s best doctors and highly Still, and Cafe Milano; not to personalized care. On property, mention, Zuma, Coya, and Le Dahlia Spa in Four Seasons Petit Maison. Guests can also Hotel Abu Dhabi, encapsulates shop until they drop in The Gal- this holistic wellness approach

Qasr al Hosn) and the highest density of amazing restaurants & bars in all of Abu Dhabi; I can’t think of anywhere else I would rather live, work & play in our capital city.”

by providing guests a resultsdriven approach through customised experiences crafted by an international team of spa experts.

THE BRIDGE

The Athenian Riviera: Where the City Meets the Sea ATHENS BEACHES feature crystal clear waters and sand-fringed shorelines that are consistently awarded Blue Flag status for their high standards in water quality and cleanliness.

Among them, Astir Beach in Vouliagmeni offers the ultimate seaside experience with its long and majestic coastline and fully serviced sunbeds. If you thought you’d seen all the ruins in Athens, the seaside Temple of Apollo Zoster will surprise you with its elegant marble alters and thrones that date back to the 6th century BC.

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Lake Vouliagmeni offers an entirely different swimming experience with added therapeutic value. Located beneath the remains of a limestone cavern, the underground springs feed salt and mineral-rich freshwater into the lake to wash away those aches and pains. Water temperatures remains at a comfortable 25 degrees celsius for ideal swimming conditions all year round.

Glyfada Food, art and wine lovers head to Glyfada to explore the wide boulevards of this upmarket district. Spend a relaxing day people watching, whilst sipping a Greek coffee or discover the many art galleries, hip boutiques and shoe emporiums.

Glyfada has seen a new wave of designer shops; cafés and restaurants emerge in recent years that are upheld by its affluent residents.

Popular streets to explore: Leoforos Dimarchou Aggelou Metaxa, Kyprou, Lazaraki.

Fine Dining The Four Seasons Astir Palace Hotel Athens signature restaurant Pelagos, specializes in sophisticated Greek seafood that is inspired by the traditions of the Aegean and provides the perfect environment for an al fresco lunch or dinner. For lunch and dinner, light salads, homemade pastas and Neapolitan-style pizzas, head to our authentic Italian trattoria Mercato, where guests get to watch the cooking action and the Aegean Sea.

Nearby on the Astir peninsula, Matsuhisa Athens offers exemplary Japanese cuisine with Peruvian influences created by Nobu Matsuhisa and executed by executive chef, Nikos Skamnakis and head sushi chef, Toni Vratsanos.

Temple of Poseidon At the southernmost point of Athens lies one of the city’s great monuments, perched above the Cape Sounion peninsula. Made entirely of white marble, the Temple of Poseidon was erected in the middle of the 5th century BC, built to honour Poseidon, god of the sea.

Archaeological finds have been traced back to as early as 700 BC. At sunset, skies are transformed into blankets of oranges, blues and reds.

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Day trips Hop on a private boat to get the full experience of Athens’ beautiful coastline. A half-day or fullday luxurious rib cruise will get you to nearby islands and inlets that you may not have heard of.

Hydra, Kea, Aegina, Fleves and more are comfortably reached within a day, with plenty of time for lunch and swimming along the way or witness the sun setting over the Aegean Sea on a sunset cruise, all of which can be arranged by the Concierge team of Four Seasons Astir Palace Hotel Athens.

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