ANTHOLOGY | FEBRUARY 2025
THE NEXT “GREAT MIGRATION”
POLICY A WHOLE–OF–GOVERNMENT APPROACH TO MIGRATION
EDUCATION
EDUCATION AT CENTER OF RESPONSE TO MIGRATION CRISES
CLIMATE NEED OF A PARADIGM SHIFT AMID CLIMATE CRISIS
LA RÔTISSERIE
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MASTHEAD
CEO & PUBLISHER
ANA C. ROLD
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
SHANE SZARKOWSKI
ART DIRECTOR
MARC GARFIELD
MULTIMEDIA MANAGER
WHITNEY DEVRIES
EDITORS
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MELISSA METOS
PHOTOGRAPHER
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RESEARCHER
EILEEN ACKLEY
EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD
ANDREW M. BEATO FUMBI CHIMA KERSTIN COATES
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AUTHORS
SIR IAN FORBES
LISA GABLE
GREG LEBEDEV
ANITA MCBRIDE
LEONOR DIAZ ALCANTARA RUI DUARTE
THOMAS GARRETT
KATY NOBLE
TOM PLANT
MARISSA QUIE
AIDA RIDANOVIC
EUAN WILMSHURST
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Welcome
Shane Szarkowski Editor-in-Chief
The Next “Great Migration”
Migration is especially contentious right now, and that’s not just because of how much it is now tied to political ideologies. It’s a global phenomenon that is already creating new economic, security, and social pressures on both origin and destination countries. The volume and impact of migration will only grow in the coming years, because the drivers of migration—voluntary and involuntary—are going to grow. Our World in 2050 Brain Trust—comprised of experts, innovators, and other leaders from all over the world —has chosen to call this the “Great Migration.”
The name is fitting, and not just because it captures the scope and impact of what’s happening today. It is also fitting because this isn’t the first “Great Migration” and the one which came before —African Americans moving from the U.S. South northward and westward during the 20th century—has interesting parallels when we look at causes. Jim Crow laws continued to systematize discrimination in the U.S. South, and African Americans were subjected to both violence and disenfranchisement. There were economic pressures too, with agriculture in the South suffering from pest infestations even as it industrialized, decreasing the need for manual labor.
This echoes what we understand to be the drivers of migration today—from marginal land losing productivity due to changing climate or overuse to fleeing abusive regimes or communal violence. That’s something to think on as we debate how to think about migration today and what to do about it. While the global, polycrisis-fueled nature of our current migration crisis makes it extraordinarily complex to solve for, there are underlying drivers that seem to remain the same. That means to an extent, we’ve been here before, and we can learn from that.
Given the overlapping drivers of migration, the complexity of our current geopolitical climate, and concerns among host countries over the impacts of migration, there’s a lot to get right as leaders around the world contemplate action. That’s why Diplomatic Courier asked its Brain Trust to think about this Great Migration—what makes it different and how we can most effectively and humanely mitigate the negative drivers and impacts of migration—for an expert commentary series and special edition. We hope you enjoy, and that this helps when you’re thinking about migration in the future!
#CiscoCDA #SwissCDA
The Next Great Migration. Illustration via Adobe Stock.
05 I Introduction: The Next “Great Migration” By: Shane C. Szarkowski
08 I Rethinking Involuntary Migration with a Whole–of–Society Approach By: Rui Duarte
10 I Globally, Irregular Migration Action Should Be Whole–of–Government By: Thomas Garrett
12 I A Path Forward Amid Divisive, Fear–Ridden Migration Debate By: Marissa Quie
14 I The Future of Irregular Migration: Challenges and Policy Imperatives By: Leonor Diaz Alcantara
16 I Schools Are the Heart of Migrants’ Integration and Resilience By: Katy Noble
18 I Put Education at Center of Response to Migration Crises By: Euan Wilmshurst
20 I Climate–Migration Nexus in Need of a Paradigm Shift Amid Climate Crisis By: Aida Ridanovic
22 I What the Flight to Rednote Says About Attention–Driven Social Media Feeds By: Tom Plant
Rethinking Involuntary Migration with a Whole–of–Society Approach
By Rui Duarte
Photo by Jim Black from Pixabay.
The era of permanent involuntary migration has arrived. What were once episodic migration crises— Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine—have now become sustained, global phenomena. Displacement that might once have been temporary is increasingly permanent, driven by worsening conflicts, climate change, and geoeconomic instability. By mid–2023, over 108 million people were forcibly displaced globally, according to UNHCR, and climate–related migration alone could uproot 216 million more by 2050, warns the World Bank. These numbers signal a fundamental shift: We are no longer managing temporary waves of migration but grappling with the enduring realities of a world where many people will never return home.
At the core of this challenge lies a paradox: Permanent involuntary migration is often framed as a threat, one that overwhelms resources and polarizes societies. Yet it holds immense potential to strengthen economies, renew aging populations, and enrich host communities. The key to resolving this paradox is a whole–of–society approach, a framework that mobilizes every sector—governments, civil society, businesses, and local communities—toward the shared goal of integration and opportunity.
A whole–of–society approach is not merely collaborative; it recognizes that addressing migration’s complexities requires intersecting solutions. Governments can provide policy frameworks, but civil society must bridge social gaps, businesses must create economic opportunities, and communities must foster belonging. The strength of this model lies in its inclusivity. No single actor can shoulder the weight of permanent migration alone, and only through unified action can migration be managed effectively.
Germany demonstrates this approach in practice. During the 2015–2016 refugee crisis, the country welcomed over 1.2 million asylum seekers, many of whom faced permanent displacement. By aligning federal policies with local initiatives, such
BY MID–2023, OVER 108 MILLION PEOPLE WERE FORCIBLY DISPLACED GLOBALLY AND CLIMATE–RELATED MIGRATION COULD UPROOT
216 MILLION MORE BY 2050.
as vocational training, language programs, and job placement efforts, Germany turned migration into a pathway for mutual progress. Crucially, collaboration between federal agencies, businesses, and communities ensured that integration was not only efficient but sustainable. By 2020, nearly half of these refugees were employed.
Similarly, Canada’s Local Immigration Partnerships (LIPs) show how uniting municipalities, businesses, and civil society can transform permanent involuntary migration into an opportunity. Canada’s high immigrant population, 23% by 2022, has thrived due to frameworks addressing housing, language acquisition, and employment. These partnerships exemplify how a society–wide strategy can balance local needs with national objectives.
Permanent involuntary migration is not simply a humanitarian issue; it is a structural reality of the 21st century. It tests humanity’s capacity to cooperate, adapt, and thrive. A whole–of–society approach, rooted in inclusivity and shared purpose, offers the tools to turn this challenge into resilience. Migration, when embraced collectively, is not a crisis. It is an opportunity to redefine the strength of nations, not by their borders but by their humanity.
About the author: Rui Duarte is an expert in political economy (LSE) with over a decade of leadership in public policy, global communications, and science PR.
Globally, Irregular Migration Action Should Be Whole–of–Government
By Thomas Garrett
Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash.
Elections in 2024 were tough on incumbents, with irregular migration a significant campaign issue across much of the world.
Just before the U.S. elections in November, a NYT/Siena poll found that 57% of likely voters supported deporting migrants unlawfully in America. Donald Trump pledged strong action on migrants and was a beneficiary of this sentiment, as were like–minded politicians in other Western countries.
In 2025, strong action on migration will happen, but delivering on this promise will be complicated: You cannot toss people across a border without first establishing a process for their safe and lawful reception. To do otherwise violates international law and could lead to a humanitarian crisis, which might reverse the opinion of those who supported deportation in concept. Writing in Foreign Affairs, International Organization for Migration Director–General Amy Pope cautions that border restrictions, large–scale deportations, or violation of migrant legal protections “feed the problem rather than solve it.”
What is needed is a longer–term, whole–of–government approach to the issue, which mitigates the negative drivers of migration, especially forced migration. An example is unfolding in Syria following the fall of dictator Bashar al–Assad. Nations across Europe, including Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and Greece—among others—have now suspended the processing of Syrian asylum claims yet also maintain harsh economic sanctions against Damascus. The UN High Commission on Refugees has noted the large number of Syrians now seeking to return to their country, but conflicting policies do not help.
As of last year, more Venezuelan refugees had migrated than Syrians over the course of their civil war. Instead of seizing the opportunity of a peaceful election to address the driver of this large–scale migration—the illegitimate
VOTERS IN 2024 CHARGED NEW GOVERNMENTS WORLDWIDE WITH ADDRESSING IRREGULAR MIGRATION. STATES MUST WORK TO ALIGN
POLICIES ACROSS GOVERNMENT TO ADDRESS THE CHALLENGES OF MODERN-DAY MIGRATION.
rule of Nicolas Maduro—the international community allowed the regime to steal the election and the influx of forced migrants from that country continues.
Another major source of migration can be found in Russia’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine. In 2025, Ukrainian refugee numbers in Europe were at 6.8 million. A just and secure peace agreement will be needed before many of these refugees, largely women and children, can return to Ukraine. The matter of Ukrainian refugees will not be resolved until a safe environment is established.
Voters in 2024 charged new governments worldwide with addressing irregular migration. States must work to align policies across government to address the challenges of modern-day migration. This holistic approach is not just a suggestion, but a necessity in the face of such a complex issue.
About the author: Thomas E. Garrett is a lecturer on democracy for Fall 2024 at the Brooks Policy Center at Cornell University, arriving from the Community of Democracies where he was Secretary General from 2017 to 2024.
A Path Forward Amid Divisive, Fear–Ridden Migration Debate
By Marissa Quie
Photo by Lucas de Moura on Unsplash.
Migration, a universal human phenomenon, has been reframed in political discourse as a polarizing issue; manipulated by populist leaders and far–right movements to amplify fear, bolster nationalism, and foster division. Across Europe, North America, and beyond, migration dominates electoral debates, reflecting anxieties about security, economic volatility, demographic change, cultural identity, and crime.
State fragility and violent conflict, often shaped by shortsighted foreign interventions in Afghanistan, Ukraine, Venezuela, and other regions, remain key drivers of migration. By mid–2024, the global number of forcibly displaced people rose to 122.6 million, prompting stricter measures in destination countries.
Destination countries such as Finland and Poland have expanded border walls, while nations like Algeria, Türkiye, and Pakistan implemented large–scale expulsions. In the U.S., President Donald Trump’s declaration of a “national emergency” at the southern border signals a similar approach, with plans to revive policies such as “Remain in Mexico,” which have exposed asylum seekers to violence and have strained neighboring countries’ resources. The EU’s new Migration Pact, emphasizing externalized asylum procedures through third–country “return hubs,” also faces logistical and ethical challenges. Meanwhile, unexpected geopolitical developments, such as the fall of Bashar al–Assad, must be carefully managed within a volatile migration context to ensure durable returns aligned with Syria’s reconstruction efforts.
Quick fixes like deportation obscure migration’s complexities. Nearly 40% of the 11.2 million undocumented migrants in the U.S. have legal authorization to live or work, and many are deeply integrated into their communities. Deportations destabilize origin countries, eroding remittance flows and reinforcing cycles of poverty and violence. Historical examples,
NEARLY 40% OF THE 11.2 MILLION UNDOCUMENTED MIGRANTS IN THE U.S. HAVE LEGAL AUTHORIZATION TO LIVE OR WORK, AND MANY ARE DEEPLY INTEGRATED INTO THEIR COMMUNITIES.
such as Canada’s deportations during the Great Depression and Uganda’s expulsion of Asian entrepreneurs, highlight the economic damage such policies can inflict.
Conversely, migration offers significant opportunities. Aging populations in wealthy nations increasingly rely on migrants to address labor shortages. Migrants already play vital roles in healthcare and construction across the U.S., Europe, and the UK. Some demographers even foresee competition between nations to attract a shrinking pool of young migrants.
To unlock migration’s potential, policymakers must adopt rights–based, evidence–driven, and context–appropriate approaches that balance immediate needs with long–term planning. Integration strategies like Germany’s vocational training programs and careful investments in education, green industries, and gender equity in origin countries can address the drivers of involuntary displacement while benefiting host nations. Recognizing migration as a multifaceted global phenomenon rather than a crisis in isolation is critical to creating solutions that foster resilience and shared prosperity.
About the author: Dr. Marissa Quie is a Fellow and Director of Studies in HSPS at Lucy Cavendish College, who specializes in Migration, Peace, and Conflict Studies.
The Future of Irregular Migration: Challenges and Policy Imperatives
By Leonor Diaz Alcantara
Syrian refugee camp in Athens, 2020. Photo by Julie Richard from Unsplash.
Irregular migration—defined as the movement of people across borders outside legal frameworks, often without proper documentation—is rising rapidly, driven by conflict, political instability, and climate change. According to UNHCR, over 117.3 million people were forcibly displaced by the end of 2023—an 8% increase from the previous year. Without urgent action, these numbers will continue to grow.
Conflict, violence, and political instability push millions to flee their homes in search of safety. Countries suffering from war, persecution, and repressive regimes often see high levels of forced displacement. Weak governance and corruption further exacerbate migration pressures.
Climate change is another factor, displacing millions through extreme weather, rising sea levels, and resource scarcity. Many communities face environmental degradation that destroys livelihoods, forcing migration.
Human rights violations, persecution, and insecurity from criminal networks, gang violence, and human trafficking also compel migration, particularly in regions with weak law enforcement. Addressing these root causes requires long–term commitment, international cooperation, and targeted funding to promote stability in origin countries.
Host nations must balance security with humanitarian obligations. Humane border management ensures asylum seekers receive fair treatment. Expanding legal migration pathways, such as work visas and refugee resettlement programs, can reduce reliance on dangerous, irregular routes. Integration programs—including language training, job placement, and social support—help migrants contribute to their new communities and ease social tensions.
Studies from the U.S. and Europe highlight the benefits of well–integrated migrants. Research from the Cato Institute and the National Bureau of Economic Research shows that skilled immigrants
TO
ENSURE MIGRATION IS A CHOICE RATHER THAN A NECESSITY, WE MUST STRENGTHEN LEGAL MIGRATION FRAMEWORKS.
contribute to innovation and entrepreneurship, particularly through increased patent filings and business startups. European studies indicate that migration enhances labor markets, addresses demographic challenges, and fosters economic growth. Given proper support, migrants can revitalize communities and drive local economies.
Being part of a family of political refugees, I understand the hardships and resilience migration entails, but I am also an example of how well–integrated migrants contribute positively to society. In my roles in the NGO sector, I have impacted thousands of lives.
To ensure migration is a choice rather than a necessity, we must strengthen legal migration frameworks, invest in climate resilience, and foster international cooperation. With sustainable policies, migration can be effectively managed to benefit both migrants and the societies they join. By fostering international cooperation, strengthening legal migration frameworks, and investing in climate resilience, we can create a future where migration is effectively managed, benefiting both migrants and the societies they join.
About the author: Leonor Diaz Alcantara is an award-winning leader with nearly 25 years of experience as a CEO, specializing in transformation, change management, and organizational growth. In January 2025, she launched the think tank, Saviesa.
Schools Are the Heart of Migrants’ Integration and Resilience
By Katy Noble
An education program supporting refugee schools in Somalia. Photo courtesy of UNICEF Somalia, via Flickr.
Migration is a deeply political issue because it intersects with identity, sovereignty, and the allocation of finite resources. In recent years, the urgency of the migration debate has been amplified by several converging factors: climate change, protracted conflicts, rising economic inequality, and shifting political landscapes. At the heart of the political sensitivity is a tension between humanitarian obligations and national interests. While international law enshrines the rights of refugees and displaced persons, host countries often grapple with the socio–economic and political challenges of absorbing new populations.
The global education sector, especially teachers and schools, stands at the crossroads of this complex reality, uniquely positioned to address the challenges and opportunities that migration brings. Evidence suggests that investment in education and young people’s leadership are critical levers for building resilient communities and mitigating against negative drivers of migration, such as environmental degradation, insecurity, or lack of economic opportunity.
A joint report by the International Labour Organization, UNICEF, and the World Bank shows that equipping young people with skills for green jobs, fostering climate resilience, and teaching conflict resolution in fragile settings can stabilize communities and reduce the push factors for migration. To succeed, this requires significant international commitment to fund education and leadership development in the world’s vulnerable regions.
Host countries face significant challenges in integrating migrant students. Schools often serve as the first point of integration for newly arrived children, but they are also ‘ground zero’ for tensions. The success or failure of integration depends on system preparedness. Underprepared education systems can result in discrimination, cultural polarization and economic inequality, while well–supported schools
UNDERPREPARED
EDU-
CATION
SYSTEMS CAN RESULT IN DISCRIMINA-
TION, CULTURAL
POLAR-
IZATION AND ECONOMIC INEQUALITY, WHILE WELL–SUPPORTED SCHOOLS AND TEACHERS TRANSFORM THE DIVERSITY INTO STRENGTH.
and teachers transform the diversity into strength. This transformation requires teacher training to go beyond acquisition of technical skills to also include cultural humility, trauma–informed pedagogy, and socio–emotional learning. When teachers are empowered to do the “inner work” of unlearning harmful frameworks, they create classrooms where migrant and host country children can learn together and succeed.
Education sits at the heart of any long–term solution, for migrants and host communities. Across the Teach For All global network, we’ve seen how teachers serve as bridges for individual learners and foster understanding across communities. We can build education systems that are responsive to the realities of migration and uphold the dignity of all children on the move by developing collective leadership. Collective leadership brings educators, political leaders, families, and communities together around a shared vision that ensures all students can thrive.
About the author: Katy Noble is the Head of Education in Emergencies at Teach For All.
Put Education at Center of Response to Migration Crises
By Euan Wilmshurst
A school for refugees in Ethiopia. Image courtesy of UNICEF Ethiopia via Flickr.
Forced migration is not a choice. Conflict and climate change are forcing millions from their homes, making displacement an unavoidable reality for many. According to UNHCR, over 110 million people were forcibly displaced by mid–2023—the highest number ever recorded. Education plays a critical role in ensuring displaced young people have the opportunity to rebuild their lives and contribute to society.
Tackling the Root Causes of Forced Migration
Reducing forced migration requires addressing systemic drivers such as conflict, environmental degradation, and economic instability. Without urgent action, climate–related displacement alone could reach 216 million people by 2050, according to the Global Education Monitoring Report. A just transition is essential to support communities facing climate impacts, ensuring access to quality education and economic opportunities. However, education in emergencies remains critically underfunded, receiving less than 3% of humanitarian aid.
Managing Migration in Host Countries
Host countries face challenges in providing education to displaced populations. Only 68% of refugee children are enrolled in primary school, compared to 90% globally, and just 34% of refugee youth access secondary education. Inclusive policies that provide formal schooling, vocational training, and language support are key to helping young migrants integrate and contribute positively. Research shows that every $1 invested in refugee education returns $2 in economic benefits, highlighting the potential for host countries to turn challenges into opportunities.
Strengthening Education Systems in Origin Countries
Education is often overlooked when discussing solutions to forced migration. Eco-
REDUCING FORCED MIGRATION REQUIRES ADDRESSING
SYSTEMIC DRIVERS SUCH AS CONFLICT, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, AND ECONOMIC INSTABILITY.
nomic opportunities and climate resilience take centre stage, but without quality education, young people have few options. Ensuring they have access to learning must be a priority, with sustained funding and political will to make it a meaningful part of long–term development efforts.
Making Education Part of Emergency Response
When crises hit, immediate needs like food and shelter come first—education is often left behind. But for displaced young people, learning is critical. It provides structure, a sense of belonging, and the opportunity to shape their future. Education should be included from the start of every humanitarian response, with flexible solutions that meet learners wherever they are.
Looking Ahead
Forced displacement will keep increasing, and education can’t continue to be ignored. It’s central to rebuilding lives and creating opportunities—whether young people return home or put down roots elsewhere. Prioritizing education is the right and smart thing to do for all our futures.
About the author: Euan Wilmshurst is a board-level strategic advisor and Non-Executive Director with experience spanning a 30-year career, working at the intersections of education, climate, and philanthropy.
Climate–Migration Nexus in Need of a Paradigm Shift Amid Climate Crisis
By Aida Ridanovic
Image via The African Union Mission in Somalia on rawpixel.
As climate change accelerates, migration will no longer be a choice but an inevitability for millions. Are we ready to confront this reality or are we still clinging to outdated assumptions about what drives people from their homes?
For too long, discussions about climate–induced migration have revolved around rising sea levels and drought–stricken farmlands. These are critical issues, but they are just the tip of the iceberg. The climate–migration nexus is not simply about environmental collapse. It is the culmination of layered crises. A failing state doesn’t need another excuse to crumble, and a farmer teetering on the edge of survival doesn’t leave home because of a single bad harvest. Climate change pushes these fragile systems over the brink, triggering mass displacement in regions already battered by political, social, and economic instability.
Consider the Sahel. Years of erratic rainfall and desertification have turned vast areas into uninhabitable zones, forcing millions to abandon traditional livelihoods. But climate is not the sole driver. Armed conflicts over dwindling resources, extremist recruitment in desperate communities, and weak governance all converge to turn environmental challenges into humanitarian catastrophes. This is the climate–security nexus in action. Migration, in this context, is a last resort, not a choice.
Yet the global response to this escalating crisis remains stuck in denial. Border walls rise higher, aid dollars are funneled into emergency relief rather than long–term resilience, and migration policies are framed as containment strategies. These are band–aid solutions that ignore the reality: migration is not a failure but a survival mechanism. Denying its legitimacy doesn’t stop it. It makes it more dangerous.
To truly address the climate–migration nexus, we need a paradigm shift. Proac-
FOR TOO LONG, DISCUSSIONS ABOUT CLIMATE–INDUCED MIGRATION HAVE REVOLVED AROUND RISING SEA LEVELS AND DROUGHT–STRICKEN FARMLANDS. THESE ARE CRITICAL ISSUES, BUT THEY ARE JUST THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG.
tive policies must prioritize prevention, preparedness, planning, and migration policies. Recognizing migration as a legitimate and organized adaptation strategy is key. Cross–border agreements must accommodate climate refugees, ensuring they are treated humanely and given opportunities to contribute to their host communities. At the same time, mitigation efforts are critical. Without drastic cuts in global emissions, adaptation will become an exercise in futility. The wealthiest nations, whose emissions have disproportionately contributed to the crisis, bear a moral and practical responsibility to lead these efforts.
The climate–migration nexus is not a distant threat. It is a defining challenge of our era. The time for bold, coordinated action is now. Anything less is a betrayal of those already on the frontlines.
About the author: Aida Ridanovic is an international strategic communications expert with over 20 years of experience in stakeholder engagement, diplomacy, and global project management.
What the Flight to RedNote Says About Attention–Driven Social Media Feeds
By Thomas Plant
Image by George Pagan III from Unsplash.
Just days before the U.S. government would ban TikTok over alleged Chinese government ties, RedNote—a Chinese—owned app with mostly Mandarin content and no major marketing push—unexpectedly shot to the top of the U.S. App. This massive digital migration occurred because RedNote offered the path of least resistance for fleeing users: its TikTok—like, attention-driven algorithm let users start scrolling immediately without rebuilding their follower lists. Their feeds are automatically curated based on what they interact with—pulling content from anywhere on the app. While convenient, these feeds skew perception and warp worldviews by removing user choice and appealing to their biases, surfacing emotionally charged content and omitting content that may be neutral, informative, or corrective—something particularly dangerous in a fraught period of U.S. politics.
And it’s not just RedNote and TikTok. While RedNote was the most noteworthy, TikTok “refugees” silently fell back on other similar offerings like Instagram Reels or YouTube Shorts. All of these platforms have copied TikTok’s attention–driven feeds, meaning that a user’s biases will follow them wherever platform they migrate.
To put this incident in context, social media migrations have happened before. Platforms like Gab, Parler, and Truth Social emerged after Trump’s post–January 6 deplatforming; BlueSky gained traction after Musk’s Twitter purchase. But these gains were blips compared to the initial rise of TikTok and the RedNote incident, which occurred not from ideology or protest, but for an unmatched ability to capture attention.
While seemingly unremarkable now, TikTok pioneered a revolutionary departure from traditional social media. In the traditional approach, users follow friends and creators and see their posts displayed chronologically. But TikTok’s ‘For You Page’ introduced an approach where users don’t need to follow anyone. The algorithm
TODAY, ATTENTION–BASED FEEDS MAY BE CREATING REAL ECHO CHAMBERS—NOT JUST BY CONTROLLING WHAT USERS SEE, BUT BY CONTROLLING WHAT THEY DON’T SEE.
automatically curates their feeds, suggesting content based on what users linger on or engage with, refining its recommendations over time in an infinitely scrolling feed. These feeds deliver content designed to capture your attention—no matter who posted it or when. In doing so, attentiondriven algorithms have made digital migration effortless. TikTok became the fastest growing social media app between 2021–2023, and its success forced nearly all other platforms (e.g., Instagram, YouTube, Facebook) to copy its formula to not hemorrhage users.
What’s Wrong with Attention–Driven Feeds?
But attention–driven feeds are so problematic because they automatically align what a user sees with their personal preferences, biases, and behaviors.
These feeds resemble “echo chambers”— a term popular a decade ago that has since been debunked. Back then, echo chambers described social media feeds that brainwashed users by drowning them in identical opinions. But researchers revealed that people sought out the content they wanted to see by curating their own feeds while encountering—but ignoring— diverse perspectives. Echo chambers were more myth than reality.
Today, attention–based feeds may be creating real echo chambers—not just by controlling what users see, but more
WHILE META’S ROLLBACK OF FACT–CHECKING IN FAVOR OF COMMUNITY NOTES IS ALARMING, FACT–CHECKING CANNOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF ALGORITH-
MIC
OMISSIONS IN ATTENTION–BASED FEEDS.
importantly by controlling what they don’t see.
First, attention–based feeds bury neutral or informative information. Instead, they favor emotionally engaging content because it can better capture users’ attention—either by confirming a user’s beliefs or reinforcing them by framing opposing perspectives to stoke anger or resentment. And there are endless opportunities to do so. The vast amount of content on social media means that algorithms can always find content that is highly tailored to any user’s specific array of biases, interests, or grievances.
Second, these feeds omit context. The brevity of short–form videos makes it easier to mislead users by presenting clips out of context (also known as “clip chimping”). In an infinite feed that can pull content from any user, tracing down original sources is difficult. Users cannot go back to a post they saw in the past without knowing exactly who posted it. To this end, users are often left unaware of what part of the story was left out. Instead, they have to trust that their feeds—and the videos within them—present a comprehensive picture of reality.
Efforts to combat mis/disinformation are dangerously behind if they do not recognize and adapt to this reality. For example,
while Meta’s rollback of fact–checking in favor of community notes is alarming, fact–checking cannot solve the problem of algorithmic omissions in attention–based feeds. The problem requires a different solution set, where two main strategies are essential:
1) Revamp Media Literacy. Social media users must be made aware of how infinite–scroll algorithms work and how they shape (and limit) their understanding of current events. Teaching about omission is crucial because it involves revealing what people would otherwise not see—content they need to see. The goal is to explain the seemingly paradoxical statement that information can be factual yet misleading.
2) Capture Attention with CounterMessaging: In an infinite-scroll world, counter–messages or corrections must be compelling enough to those who were misled that their algorithms surface them in their feeds. Simply correcting the misinformation isn’t enough. A good starting point is speaking directly to those being misled and framing the message in a way that resonates with their concerns.
Regardless of TikTok’s future in the United States, the attention–driven infinite scroll that users flock to is here to stay. But rather than deny it, we must innovate alongside it, acknowledging how it’s warping worldviews and then targeting this new dynamic directly.
About the author: Thomas Plant is an Associate Product Manager at Accrete AI and co–founder of William & Mary’s DisinfoLab, the nation’s first undergraduate disinformation research lab.
