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TRANSCRIPTION
Company: Mercury
Duration: 19 minutes
Operator: Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Mercury announcement. All participants are in a listen only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Vince Hawksworth, Chief Executive. Please go ahead.
Vince Hawksworth: So that's the project. We are pretty excited about it. We expect to kick off within weeks, so we expect to see mobilisation occur and see the project under construction in October. We would expect to see machines being erected around about the middle of next year and the project complete well within the calendar year. So a bit of work to do comes on the back of our Turitea project, which we are now still expecting to have complete around the middle of
Date: 13 September 2022
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Vince Hawksworth: Thank you Marina, everybody. I'm joined by William Meek, our CFO. So this morning we announced the decision to go ahead with Kaiwera Downs Wind Farm just south of Gore. We're going ahead with the first stage of the wind farm, which is a 43 megawatt build, 10 machines, about $115 million, excluding capitalised interest. So we see this as a sensible next step in terms of our growth towards being a major player in the decarbonization of New Zealand. It establishes the wind farm at Gore at Kaiwera Downs and gives us the optionality on the further build that could take the wind farm up to 240 megawatts.
Vince Hawksworth: Look, we acknowledge that there is uncertainty in the marketplace, but we also think that if New Zealand doesn't start this construction phase, we won't reach net zero and I think it's important to show that the players in the market are able to bring projects to market and deliver them. The great thing about Kaiwera Downs is it's an excellent project. It's been a long time in the making from the original resource consent gained by Trustpower. It was then in the Tilt book that Mercury gained with the transaction to acquire New Zealand Tilt Renewable's assets and pipeline. It's an excellent project from a point of view of performance, we will be using the best possible technology with 10 4.3 Megawatt machines and we are partnering with Vestas ElectroNet, PowerNet and Higgins to deliver the project under a collective set of contracts that will be coordinated by Mercury.
Andrew Harvey Green Yeah. Okay. And next question, just around cost, is are you able to say roughly how much is going to be in FY 23 versus FY 24?
Vince Hawksworth: And I think we can't have our cake and eat it in this world. And if we believe that we need to decarbonize it we can sit on our hands and wait for every piece of certainty, then I suspect the next time it's really dry we will then be asking ourselves why the market hasn't responded to prices and forward prices are still relatively firm as well. So if we don't step up, roll our sleeves up and do the work, we should expect someone else to do it for us.
Vince Hawksworth Fixed. I mean largely fixed. I mean there are always contract risks associated with things not happening as you would think they would. But in terms of the deal investors, that's for the actual kit that's fixed and the deals with the other contractors, they are fixed around the design scope. So yeah, we're not expecting big variations to that.
Operator: Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question today comes from Andrew Harvey Green with Forsyth Barr. Please go ahead.
Vince Hawksworth: I think, look, the consents could easily have been renewed. I don't think I think we could have renewed the consents. I think the reality is it's a really neat opportunity to secure that site at a level which is relatively small, retains the ability to scale because all of this power will be going into the Powernet network. So it has a lot of attractive features in order to still have all of the optionality of the large scale project. So I think consent's just a small part of an overall feature
Andrew Harvey Green: Good morning, William and Vince, not a big surprise from my perspective, I guess that this has been announced. A couple of questions from me. First of all, just, I mean this cost is obviously a key consideration at the moment. Are you able to say how much of that 115 million I guess you would describe it being fixed versus that there might be some variability and is dependent on future pricing?
Andrew Harvey Green Yeah. Next question I just had was just in terms of, I understand that the consents were expiring on Kaiwera Downs and that was I guess a key consideration. To what extent if the consents were not expiring, would you have actually gone ahead at this point in time on this one farm?
next year and is part of our strategy to ensure New Zealand meets its decarbonization targets. William, anything you want to add or should we open for questions?
Vince Hawksworth: So yep, we'll open for questions. Thank you.
William Meek: We should have some questions?
William Meek: A lot of it's going to fall on FY 23. Given the phasing.
Stephen Hudson: Very good, thanks Vince.
Andrew Harvey Green Yeah, and just last question for me was just in terms of the choice of Vestas, I just given some of the difficulties at Turitea, we take it as a pretty good sign that the relationship there is pretty sound and obviously very happy to continue working with them.
Stephen Hudson: Oh, good morning Vince and Will congratulations on the announcement. Just two questions from me just around Stage Two. Firstly, can you give us a feel for what the cost per megawatts might look like for Stage Two and secondly just around PPAs, have you had any discussions on PPAs to back the project and yeah, where do those discussions sit at the moment?
Vince Hawksworth: Yeah, so Stage Two, so a couple of things with Stage Two we will probably use very similar technology if and when we decide to go ahead. I think it's absolutely the case that costs have increased, if we imported costs, let's put it that way, have increased and may still have a little way to go and we'll monitor that quite carefully. Of course, the decision on Stage Two is completely independent of this decision. It will have to connect into the grid. So we have the benefit of a totally independent decision that we can again pick the timing on. We still think Stage Two is probably the best yielding wind project that's got a consent at the moment and probably better than many that haven't got a consent.
Andrew Harvey Green: Well good. Okay, thanks. That's all from me.
Vince Hawksworth: So it's a good project. From the point of view of your second question. Look, we are in discussions with many parties at the moment who are looking for long term energy arrangements that are associated with new renewables and we're not at the point of signing any deals, but we are actively in a number of processes and obviously we'll make those public as and when we get somewhere and we can within the framework of NDAs and all of those good things that we're involved in. But look, we are active in that space and we've got some good projects that can back so if there's anybody out there looking for a PPA and we've got some good projects that can back some PPAs, this doesn't need to be the only one that people talk to us about.
Operator: Your next question comes from Stephen Hudson with Macquarie Securities. Please go ahead.
Operator: Your next question comes from Nevill Gluyas with Jarden. Please go ahead.
Vince Hawksworth: Look, I think you have to be grown ups in this world and there are always going to be project problems and relationships that are difficult. The reality is that we want to use the best technologies for the sites we have available and I have no doubt that Vestas are strongly committed to doing a great job on their part of this project and delivering a great solution. I think it's fair to say, as the light at the end of the tunnel appears at Turitea, we're all able to think about how we can do better in the future and there are plenty of lessons that we've learned out of that.
Vince Hawksworth: Again for that one Neville.
Vince Hawksworth: We would always think about the timing relative to any off take agreements that we might have and relative to where we are in the cycle, I don't think the price increase cycle in this technology has reached its top yet. And we don't want to be the buyers at the top of the market.
Nevill Gluyas: Great. Now that's good colour, thank you. One specific question, can you give any guidance, so you've got a 30 year agreement for maintenance with Vestas. Can you give any guidance as to, in real terms, what we should think of as average lifetime O&M on that dollar millions per annum.
Nevill Gluyas: Good morning team. Question around, firstly around obtaining turbines and whether or not that was difficult, I'm not sure how you might answer that. Perhaps one way to answer the question is, we've heard from many others that it's difficult to even get manufacturers to quote. It seems to be that you've come up with quite a fast timeline for getting these 10 turbines. If you decide to proceed to Stage Two, how do you anticipate, let's imagine that was middle of year hypothetically, how long do you think it would take to negotiate to procure the remaining turbines for the site?
Nevill Gluyas: Okay. No, that's fine. And last question Vince.
Vince Hawksworth: Stage Two would take a bit longer. What is it? It's three and a half times bigger, so you've just got more work to do. It's also got a good connection to get done as well, which will. So there's a whole bunch of probably increased complexities. So I don't want to give our project teams a heart attack by saying something that is way out of kilter, but look, it will take longer and as many projects will, this is just a relatively simple execution.
William Meek: No, I can't, no, I haven't looked at what the average for the 30 years is.
Nevill Gluyas: Okay, that's helpful. Thanks. I guess the construction time for this between FID to completion seems pretty quick. Should we expect similar timing? Assuming you could procure turbines between FID and Stage Two?
Vince Hawksworth: Gee, that's an interesting question, Nevill. I guess to the first half of your question. I think what happens in this part of the cycle is that OEMs talk to people who have a track record of executing. So they get lots of people come and say, "I've got this project, can you give me a price?" And that costs them money to do that and they're less likely to want to spend that money to do it if they think the chance the project actually being committed to is low. So I think Mercury has a reasonable reputation with OEMs of following through on projects it discusses providing of course everything stacks up. So I do think there is a range of, buyers are viewed through different lenses by sellers is the first thing I'd say. And the second thing is with respect to Stage Two, look if we, middle of next year sounds pretty quick to me, but look, if we had some reason to want to move that fast, I think the major OEMs would want to talk to Mercury about those.
Operator: Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. We'll now pause a short moment to allow time for questioners to register. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Hawksworth for any closing remarks.
Nevill Gluyas: No, that's useful colour. Thank you. Last question then, Kaiwaikawe. Any connection at all between this decision and how we should think about whether or not Kaiwaikawe could be delayed or not or whether are they completely independent as I would expect?
Nevill Gluyas: Yeah, useful. Just get some guide. I mean I guess we've been working for some recent projects in that 11 or $12 per megawatt hour range indicative and it's just whether or not that number has crept up along with all the other costs.
Vince Hawksworth: Thank you. Well thanks everyone. Thanks for dialling in. You know how to find us if there are things that you want to talk about outside of the call and that we look forward to getting this project built and added into the Mercury portfolio. Cheers.
Operator: That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Vince Hawksworth: Look, we are working hard on Kaiwaikawe. We've got a customer who we want to be able to present the project back to and we're very conscious of that. It is taking longer than we hoped. But I guess we've said before, we would be a lot further advanced if it hadn't been so hard to get a resource consent. But we are working towards that project and we are talking with all the people that you need to bring together to get a firm position to go to FID. So that's OEM providers and issues around connection and civils and all of those things are being advanced. So I can't give you an exact timing at the moment and I wouldn't, anyway, that just the nature of it. I think the first people we'll talk to as we bring this together are Genesis, who are the customer.
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William Meek: Thanks Nevill.
Nevill Gluyas: Makes sense. Okay. Thank you very much. That's all for me.
William Meek: Oh no, definitely. Then it's definitely higher than that and you've got a payment for the use of the transmission line because we're not going to own that. That's going to be owned by the line company. So you effectively got instead of paying the cost you’re paying effectively an annuity.