5.2 Manning Threat and Risk Assessment

Key risks and threats to our ECMP objectives for the Manning River estuary and catchment were assessed and ranked using MidCoast Council’s risk assessment methodology. Once ranking was complete, a risk tolerance was assigned from low tolerance to moderate and high tolerance. All risks assigned low to moderate tolerance were then nominated as issues for further analysis.

5.2.1 Threat and Risk Assessment Method

Several inputs were considered when assessing risks and threats to our objectives and the ECMP Management Areas. The steps included: • Review of the NSW Government’s Marine Estate Management Strategy (2018) state-wide Threat and Risk Assessment (TARA) and finer scale TARA for the Northern Region which includes the

Manning estuary. These documents assess and rank risks to ecological and socio-economic values. • A literature review for the Manning River estuary and its catchment, conducted for the Stage 1

Scoping Study. • A workshop with our Technical Advisory Group (TAG) to select and assess the risks that related to the Manning estuary and catchment, using best available scientific and local knowledge (MCC 2018).

Existing management regimes, research and knowledge gaps were accounted for in the risk assessment.

• Consultation with the ECMP Reference Group who were invited to identify their top three issues.

Issues that featured most strongly and align with the TAG consensus were acid sulfate soil discharge, sediment and erosion control and managing agricultural impacts. Other issues raised by the Reference Group were flood mitigation, drought resilience and lack of community understanding and stewardship. • A more detailed climate change threat and risk assessment was conducted by Salients Consulting, based on a literature review and consultation with key stakeholders. Council’s Risk Management Framework was used to rate the risks. Scores were assigned to the likelihood and consequence of threats to environmental, social and economic risk, and the risk rating was derived from the matrix below. Management controls were then considered, and the scoring repeated to assess the residual risk.

Acid sulfate soil