T H E M O N T H LY B U S I N E S S S E C T I O N F O R L I N N A N D B E N T O N C O U N T I E S A N D T H E M I D - W I L L A M E T T E VA L L E Y
www.democratherald.com/business • www.gazettetimes.com/business
Optimism
2012 for
We asked experts about the prospects for nine different economic sectors in the new year. The consensus: A surprising amount of cautious optimism that although the economy may not have turned the corner yet, the corner might be coming into view. Here’s the outlook, segment by segment:
Finance The good news: Banks, credit unions and other financial institutions that have weathered the worst of the recession have likely done so thanks to prudent and careful decisions, and now those institutions are poised to take advantage of the economic upturn, when it finally comes. Financial institutions have cash to loan, and are making loans to business people with sound business plans and consumers who are good prospects for timely repayment. The bad news: It’s likely that the shakeout in the sector still isn’t quite finished: Some banks may close in 2012 and a Eugene credit union recently closed its doors. And, ironically, an improving economy could fuel liquidity issues in institutions in the next couple of years as investors take their money out of the safe havens of banks and credit unions in search of higher returns. The uncertainties: It’s still unclear what impact financial reforms like the Dodd-Frank legislation recently passed by Congress will have on banks and credit unions. And, although consumer confidence appears to be on the rebound, it still could be shaken by any number of events, both in the United States and abroad. – Mike McInally
Government and education The good news: Enrollment increases at Oregon State University are helping to bankroll an increase in the ranks of faculty and staff members. OSU projections call for the growth in enrollment to slow, but to continue at a 2 to 3 percent pace for the next few years. The bad news: Although it tends to be obscured by OSU’s hiring boom, other branches of local government likely will be looking at shedding jobs over the next year or so. The Corvallis School District, for example, is looking at a budget shortfall of more than $4 million for its next fiscal year, and would appear to have little option but to lay off workers. The same is true at other mid-valley school districts, and city and county governments as well. The uncertainties: Governments have been shielded from the worst of the budget cuts by a number of voter-approved levies. But those come up for approval every few years, and government officials worry that voters will start to reject those levies – which would trigger deeper personnel cuts. And any year with a legislative session – and now, that’s every year in Oregon – brings some uncertainty. – Mike McInally
Retail The good news: Mid-valley retailers report the last few years have showed improvement. While optimism is guarded, steady holiday sales bode well for the economy. Hiring is up and spending local has increased. The trend to stay local and shop local has resulted in more event participation and an increase in business. Mid-valley business associations report there is a trend to buy quality goods and retailers catering to higher quality goods are seeing positive sales. The bad news: In an election year, there are many uncertainties and unpredictable events. Dubious information flying around can cause unease while new regulations and tax burdens will raise questions. The uncertainties: It is impossible to predict human nature. If people aren’t feeling secure, they won’t part with their money. While many hope for a better economy and some say things are improving, shoppers still hold tightly to their wallets waiting for a sign that things will change for the better. – Maria L. Kirkpatrick
December 2011
Agriculture
Construction and real estate
The good news: Mid-valley farmers continue to diversify their planting selections away from what had been primarily grass seed only. Wheat, clover seed and even hazelnuts are being added to the mixture. The backlog of grass seed that has sat in warehouses due to anemic new home sales and cutbacks in over seeding by the golf industry, is slowly decreasing. The bad news: The number of acres of wheat grown in the midvalley continues to increase and prices have remained relatively strong. But a long, cold, wet spring decreased wheat yields in some case by as much as 50 percent over the 2010 crop. The uncertainties: Prices for some varieties of grass seed have begun to come back, but how far they will go is the question. Also, weather has affected wheat yields in other parts of the world, causing U.S. prices to fluctuate. Relatively high crude oil prices have resulted in diesel fuel prices approaching $4 per gallon and fertilizer prices of $600 to more than $800 per ton.
The good news: As the economy continues to recover from the burst of the housing bubble, the brightest spot on the horizon in the world of mid-valley construction and real estate is multifamily housing. Expect to see continued demand for rental housing. The neutral news: Other than that, 2011 was a fairly flat year for construction and real estate. Albany Realtor Dave Pautsch said that since area house prices began declining in August 2007, things have stabilized in the mid-valley. Few if any builders are putting in new subdivisions or building spec homes, but the inventory of unsold houses is starting to decline. Realtors consider that when the average listing sits on the market for more than six months, it’s a buyer’s market; when properties are snapped up in less than six months, it’s a seller’s market. Currently, the average is 5.27 months for Corvallis, 6.61 for Albany, and 6.46 for Lebanon.“I’d say it’s a fairly neutral market,” Pautsch said. Commercial Realtor Gary Pond said that it’s been a flat year for commercial real estate. Some stores, such as JoAnn’s Fabrics in Corvallis, moved to larger, newer spaces, but such movements leave behind holes to fill at the old storefronts. “It’s really been like musical chairs,” he said. “There’s no major net gain.” The uncertainties: The free fall has stopped, but don’t expect to see a housing boom anytime soon.
– Alex Paul
– Jennifer Rouse
Health care The good news: In July, expect a major healthcare transformation as a legislatively imposed deadline arrives that has given health care organizations a 12month period to form coordinated care organizations, local organizations with networks of providers that offer preventive care. The organizations will aim to focus on prevention and early detection. Overall, hiring should continue in the sector as demand rises. The bad news: Health care costs are rising as reimbursement for services is reduced. In July, changes in the state budget take effect that will reduce by 20 percent reimbursements made to hospitals for care of patients with state-funded medical coverage. The uncertainties: There is no way to predict how these changes will impact the economy. Less money coming in to hospitals will have an impact but at the same time new jobs in health care likely will be created. 2012 is shaping up as another transition year, and the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on President Obama’s Affordable Care Act adds another layer of uncertainty.
Manufacturing The good news: Chris Scherer, director of the Oregon Manufacturing Extension Partnership, predicts growth across industries. “Most of the companies that have made it have at least a reasonable recovery gain plan,” he said, adding that most of his clients were relatively optimistic. In the area of technology manufacturing, Bruce Laird of the Oregon Business Development Department described himself as quite optimistic.“The numbers are very optimistic and certainly business is picking up.“ In Linn County, metals manufacturing may receive a boost due to increased demand for aircraft, said Will Summers of the Oregon Employment Department. However, he does not expect huge growth. The bad news: Benton County won’t be seeing much, if any, growth in wood-product manufacturing, said Summers. Overall,“business is still nowhere near where it was, but it doesn’t seem to be sinking any further except in isolated cases,” Scherer said. The uncertainties: No one can predict exactly what 2012 will bring, and different industries will see different results. Scherer added the stipulation that companies actively working to improve their productivity are more likely to find success in the coming year. – Jen Matteis
– Maria L. Kirkpatrick
Timber/wood products
Dining and tourism
The good news: Housing starts are up compared to the last couple of years at 680,000 units, but still well below the normal standard of 1.3 million units per year, according to Jim Geisinger of Associated Oregon Loggers.“It’s better than what we’ve seen in recent years, but it’s still a far cry from the really good years when there were 2 million starts,” Geisinger said.“And, there’s an uptick in home repair and remodeling, so that market has improved a bit.” Other good news is that investor groups are buying foreclosed homes, remodeling them and putting them up for sale. “It’s not new housing, but at least this should help take some of the backlog out of the market,” Geisinger said. The bad news: The market has been shored up by the shipment of raw logs overseas, because domestic demand is so poor. But that means new jobs in wood processing aren’t being created. The uncertainties: How long overseas demand will continue and whether the European debt issues will balance out.
The good news: Mid-valley tourism was strong in 2011, and while the dining business isn’t back to prerecession levels, local restaurateurs are optimistic. Surging attendance at local festivals and continued bookings for conventions and conferences contributed to a good year for tourism. Corvallis and Albany both reported increases in the amount of money they received from room taxes in 2011. Dave Gilbert at Visit Corvallis said that Oregon State University sporting events and conferences played a big role in those numbers, as well as the area’s emerging role as a bicycling center. Corvallis restaurant owner Iain Duncan said times have been tough on restaurant owners, as food prices rose dramatically and the failing economy made diners less likely to eat out. Partly in response to such pressures, Duncan and his wife, Tonya, closed one restaurant, Terzo, and converted their French restaurant, Le Bistro, into the lower-priced Brew BBQ. But things are looking up, Duncan said. Albany restaurant owner Matt Bennett had to make changes to keep his restaurants vital as well – he and his wife, Janel, sold Boccherini’s coffee shop and added a retail wine component to their Italian-American restaurant, Clemenza’s. Now, Bennett said, his restaurants are doing better than they have for the past few years. The uncertainties: If fuel prices go up, that could dampen some of the optimism here. But the overall trend appears to be slightly upward.
– Alex Paul
– Jennifer Rouse
20129024 6 X 2.00 HOUSE ACCT PAID |
MID-VALLEY InBusiness
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B US I N ES S P R O F I L E
December 2011
Q & A WITH
Bill Humphreys Sr.
B
JESSE SKOUBO | CORVALLIS GAZETTE-TIMES
Earthfort co-owner Scott Smith at his business in Corvallis. Earthfort works to educate customers, evaluate situations and remediate soil.
Taking root in soil By MARIA L. KIRKPATRICK
D
irt is dead. Soil, on the other hand, is the foundation of life. A wellbalanced soil gives forth more bounty. And so the Corvallis company Earthfort works to provide education, tools and supplies to cultivate good soil. Earthfort works with Soil Foodweb Inc. to put soil under a microscope and educate growers on what lives within their landscape. “Most people assume chemistry is all you need to know about the soil,” said Elaine Ingham, director of Soil Foodweb in Corvallis. “But the biology will predict what the chemistry will be.” Soil Foodweb Inc. is owned by Ingham to promote her research on soil biology. The company houses the flagship lab in Corvallis owned by Earth Fortification Supplies Co. – Earthfort, for short. Ingham is directly involved with the lab. “Earthfort makes applying Soil Foodweb concepts practical and tangible,” said Scott Smith, Earthfort’s chief executive officer. “We partner with Sustainable Studies Institute (Ingham’s nonprofit educational organization, which aims to further the research done by Soil Foodweb research) to teach the biological approach,” he said.
SCOBEL WIGGINS | CORVALLIS GAZETTE-TIMES
Cutaway example of a home compost tea brewer from Earthfort.
Earthfort applications are being used near and far. For example, Earthfort sells a bucket brewer kit to make a compost tea that can be applied to gardens. Farmers in California have used Earthfort’s compost tea to grow record-breaking vegetables and more fruitful trees. Slaughter, vice president of Soil Foodweb Inc., lab director and consultant, recently was in Suriname to work with the SCOBEL WIGGINS | CORVALLIS GAZETTE-TIMES Caribbean Institute to Matt Slaughter is vice-president help support the country’s and lab director of Earthfort. goal of building sustainable and organic agricul“read” the living matter in ture. the samples. He said the farmers “Everything exists for a were struggling with the reason,” Smith said. soil and having to farm “Predators are there to further from the village take out the weak. The year after year. In teaching same happens in plants. Dominating plants deter- them to care for the soil, they not only keep work mine the soil.” and food nearby, they are “If you really want to growing enough food for predict how well your their families and are able plant is going to grow, you to sell their produce at need to know the biology,” market. Ingham said. “Biology is Even the Woodland more than a snapshot of Park Zoo has benefited the time of the sample.” from Earthfort knowledge. Breaking down the biUtilizing biology from a Smith and Matt ology and feeding the good compost tea, E. coli in Slaughter, vice president so that it will outgrow the urine of the Komodo dragat Earthfort, educate oth- bad is what Earthfort aims on has been neutralized, ers, evaluate situations to do. The company offers enabling habitat keepers to and remediate soil for a education, consulting, lab safely clean their habitat. living. services, products and “Tea is biology,” equipment to restore soil Farmers and agriculSlaughter said. “(This apbiology. turists mail in soil samples plication) introduced a to the office and consult Work ranges from natural biology that outwith Earthfort staff. helping landscapers to competed the E. coli.” Working with microscopes small organic farmers to “Composting is handand other equipment, large-scale commercial Earthfort scientists exam- farms, municipalities, crafted hummus,” Smith. ine the samples, break nurseries and greenhouse “We take what happens in down ingredients and operations. the forest and accelerate it.”
PHOTOS OF THE
YEAR
See Lifestyles on Jan. 1
ill Humphreys Sr. is the president and CEO of Citizens Bank. In recent years, Humphreys has presented talks throughout the area on the economic outlook for the mid-valley and the nation, so it made sense for Mid-Valley InBusiness to check in with him for his thoughts about 2012. Here’s an edited version of the discussion: InBusiness: Last time we talked about the state of the economy, a year ago, we were still in the grips of real economic uncertainty. That uncertainty is still out there, but are you starting to see some things come into focus? Humphreys: One of the things that has come into focus is the fact that we’re going to be in this for a while longer. I think we’ve got at least two years. One strong indicator of that is the Federal Reserve announcing that it’s going to keep interest rates low … and low means zero to .25 (percent), probably, on the fed funds rate, for the next two years. That’s an unprecedented move, and so that probably means that we’re going to be in this for 18 to 24 months in terms of the economy. … There are some signs of, certainly not economic growth overall, but certain sectors of the economy have grown. InBusiness: What segments of the economy do you see growing? Humphreys: I think agriculture has been quite strong. Exporting has been good because the dollar has been so low against foreign currencies. … Boeing and the aircraft-manufacturing sector are doing well, and it’s because the airlines are running to the end of their expected life period on most of their assets. … As you look around, you can pick spots in the economy that are doing quite well. Profits are good. … But the rest of the economy is not recovering to the extent that we’d like to see it at this point in a recession. We’re three years in. Although the recession officially ended two years ago in October, it sure feels like a recession because there’s just been very little growth — even though I guess there’s officially been some growth. (I)n the housing market, recession continues … and because housing is the biggest part of any consumer’s life, when that’s in recession, consumers are in recession. And jobs … if you’ve got a job, that’s how you can pay for your housing. If unemployment is at 10 percent, that means 10 percent of the people can’t do that. I think the 10 percent is just an overwhelming negative that has to improve before we climb out of this recession. InBusiness: Why do you think jobs haven’t bounced back? Is it that businesses are being cautious about adding jobs? Humphreys: I think there are a lot of reasons for that. I think there’s caution and uncertainty among businesses … I think a lot of businesses have learned that they can do as much or even more with the staff that they have, getting more efficient.
ANDY CRIPE | CORVALLIS GAZETTE-TIMES
Bill Humphreys Sr., president and CEO of Citizens Bank. Humphreys thinks we’ll be in a weak economy for a while longer. InBusiness: What’s your general advice to businesspeople trying to figure out strategies for success and survival in 2012? Humphreys: They need to create some sort of a strategic business plan. They need to know where they’re going. They need to have a plan. They need to formalize it and they need to put the budget and all the management conditions behind the plan. We’ve been offering to just help people with their business plans, free of charge. Just come in, you don’t have to bank with us, just let us help us with your plan. It’s very important that they do that. InBusiness: A good plan is important in good economic times. It’s critical in periods like this. Humphreys: I agree. I’ve been asking people to take advantage of these low rates to restructure their balance sheet. If they have any debt, try to get the debt fixed and termed out in terms of interest rate. There’s likely to be interest rate inflation when the Fed takes its foot off the governor of the interest rates. When that happens … there will be a round of increased interest rates and they need to prepare for that. So now’s the time to use the low rates in this short-term environment to take care of all your financing needs. And then we’re telling them to shorten up on all their debt. There’s no reason right now to not pay off your debt with your cash if you’ve got excess cash. … InBusiness: What else can businesses do? Humphreys: (B)usinesses have lots of room to get more efficient. They can do more with fewer resources. They need to anticipate higher operating costs. They need to really take a look at their costs. ... Understand your product costs.
Really understand what it costs to produce your product. Take a look at who you’re doing business with, who you’re selling to. If you’re not making a profit on that line of business or with that customer, then change your pricing or exit that customer relationship. Now’s the time to do that, and you can use the economy as an excuse. (Remember) the theory that you can’t make a small loss on every deal and make it up in volume. … (U)nderstand where your best business comes from, understand who your best customers are, and then clean out the negatives, the losses, the loss leaders, the losing products and really emphasize the positives, with all the positive relationships and spend a lot of time maximizing those things. … InBusiness: It’s easy to forget how cyclical the economy is. Humphreys: There has never, ever been a recession that didn’t end.There’s always an end to the downturn portion of a cycle and we have to remember that and prepare for it. But we also have to remember, and we often forget, is that there’s an end to the upturn portion of the cycle, too, and we think that’s going to last forever, and it doesn’t.That caused us some real headaches in this last go-round. InBusiness: The thing I like about this advice is that, it’s really things that businesspeople can do. It helps them focus on the things that they can control. You can’t fret about the things that are outside your control. Humphreys: Focus on what you can control. Be an observer on the other things, but don’t worry about them. And then prepare. I think preparation is the key to business success. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.
20127867 3 X 5.00 CITIZENS BANK/LOCAL
MID-VALLEY InBusiness
MOVERS&SHAKERS ceuticals, cosmetics and other industries. SAMARITAN JOINS ART EFThe company opened its doors FORT: Samaritan Health Serlast May, and today employs five vices has been selected to help people. AGAE Technologies licreate an Oregon Network for censed the patented technology Arts in Rural Health Care, which from OSU, and has conducted its will be a chapter of the new Paown research on cost-effective, cific Northwest Arts in Health Al- high-yield processes for manuliance. facturing a compound known as A planning session took place a rhamnolipid biosurfactant. Dec. 2 at Good Samaritan ReBiosurfactants are a novel gional Medical Center. Rural group of microbial compounds health care and arts leaders from made by living cells, and can be across Oregon were invited to at- used in personal and household tend at no cost. products, paints and manufacSince 2004, Samaritan has turing processes. AGAE Techplayed a leadership role in foster- nologies’ compounds are noning a local movement to connect toxic, environmentally benign patients, visitors and employees and biodegradable. with artistic experiences, to AGAE is one of the latest commake the health care experience panies to commercialize OSU remore enjoyable and to promote search. This year the university healing. Samaritan has partincreased licensing revenues by nered with The Arts Center in 63 percent with 101 “active” Corvallis and the Oregon Coast technology licenses from mass Council for the Arts to create spectrometry to mold and yeast ArtsCare, a program that brings inhibitors. artists directly into the health The company CEO is Harrison care setting. Parks, who has more than 25 The Society for Arts in Healthyears of international technology care has since 2009 provided funding to implement a planning sales and marketing experience. process with a goal of increasing Xihou Yin is president and access to arts in health care pro- founder of AGAE Technologies, grams in Oregon’s rural commu- and senior research faculty nities. The society also provided member in the OSU College of Pharmacy. AGAE also has hired professional trainers to lead the Martha Cone to oversee techniDec. 2 session. cal operations and to manage The trainers led participants customer technical engagement. through a process to identify populations that have limited access to arts in health care servicCITIZENS DECLARES DIVIes; determine how to reach underserved populations; initiate a DEND: On Dec. 20, the Board of Directors of Citizens Bancorp plan to increase the number of rural health facilities with arts in declared a cash dividend to be paid to all shareholders of record health care programs; and provide those attending with access on Jan. 5. The company declared a cash to practical materials. For more information about lo- dividend equal to 35 cents per share of common stock, and 37 cal efforts, contact Samaritan’s Jeanette Partl at 541-768-6868. cents per share to holders of preferred stock. This dividend will be paid on or before Jan. 13. Citizens Bank, a wholly owned AGAE SHIPS FIRST PRODUCT: AGAE Technologies LLC, a subsidiary of Citizens Bancorp, is a full-service community bank new Corvallis biotechnology with offices in Corvallis, Philocompany based on research at math, Albany, Lebanon, Junction Oregon State University, has City, Springfield, Harrisburg, shipped its first product: a speMcMinnville, Dallas, Silverton, cialty chemical for use in environmental remediation, pharma- Oregon City and Salem.
News & Notes
DAT E B O O K Jan. 3: Orientation session for the MicroBusiness Explore and Commit class, 6 to 8 p.m., Room CC-213, Calapooia Center, Linn-Benton Community College, 6500 Pacific Blvd. S.W., Albany. The orientation session will describe the eight-week course, which is designed to help participants determine whether they have a viable business idea. The class will meet from 6 to 8 p.m. Tuesdays from Jan. 10 through March 20 at Corvallis High School. Cost of the course is $349; partial scholarships are available. Information: LBCC Small Business Development Center, 541-917-4974. Jan. 4: Orientation session for the MicroBusiness Explore and Commit class, 6 to 8 p.m., Linn-Benton Community College Benton Center, 757 N.W. Polk Ave., Corvallis. See description above. Jan. 10 and 11: Principles of Natural Resource Management, 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m., Portland. Being a natural resource manager requires a scientific grounding in ecology and ecosystem function, and a grasp of resource policy and policy-making. The goal of this course is to provide an introduction to the science and politics of natural resource management as it is practiced today. Participants should have some knowledge of ecology and environmental science. A general un-
derstanding of natural resource management is helpful but not required. Sponsored by the Northwest Environmental Training Center. Cost: $595. Registration: www.nwetc.org. Jan. 10: Lebanon Area Chamber of Commerce Women In Business Luncheon: “Leading Us Into A New Year.” Speaker: Rob Hess, Lebanon Community School District superintendent. Time: Noon, Bing’s Kitchen, 2416 S. Santiam Highway, Lebanon. Cost: $12. Info: 541-258-7164. Jan. 17: Expanding Your Leadership Edge: “Leadership from the Inside Out.” Facilitated by Joseph Bailey, Linn-Benton Community College. Time: 8:08 a.m., chamber office, 435 First Ave. W., Albany. Cost: $10. Info: 541-9261517. Jan. 19: Lebanon Area Chamber of Commerce Business After Hours. Time: 5 to 7 p.m., Key Bank, 95 E. Sherman, Lebanon. Cost: $8. Info: 541-258-7164. Jan. 24-25: Bureau of Labor and Industry Training: “Employee Supervision: A Two-Day Basic Training.” Presenter: Jennifer Germundson, BOLI. Time: 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., Central Willamette Community Credit Union Headquarters, 7101 Supra Drive S.W., Albany. Cost: $130 chamber members; $150 nonmembers. Info: 541-812-8668 or greg.e.ivers@state.or.us.
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B US I N ES S DATA Residential Average Sales Price by Area
Unemployment Rate Oct. 2011
Nov. 2010 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0
Nov. 2011 13.0
9.8 9.0 8.6
10.6
9.5 9.1 7.2
U.S.
12.0 11.5
6.4 6.1
Benton Co.
Oregon
325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125
Thousands
December 2011
Linn Co.
Source: Oregon Employment Department Note: Data are seasonally adjusted.
306,557 257,847 Benton County Linn County
194,920
2007
Nov. 2011
Albany N. Albany Brownsville Corvallis
447 119 23 501
Units sold past year
Nov. 2010
469 134 21 471
Average sales prices
Nov. 2011
152,983 221,748 150,813 270,541
Average ales price
Nov. 2010
161,417 252,591 197,992 279,659
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Service
Mid-Valley Residential Report Units sold past year
146,054
Independence Jefferson Lebanon Philomath Sweet Home
Units sold past year
Units sold past year
Average sales prices
Average ales price
Nov. 2011
Nov. 2010
Nov. 2011
Nov. 2010
53 52 297 74 123
64 45 313 81 138
165,226 202,409 137,623 241,437 115,892
209,490 211,929 150,326 240,900 121,720
Source: Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Service
Corvallis MSA (Benton County) Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Oregon Employment Department
Nov. ’10 1,160 3,320 4,410 810 1,360 3,630 5,650 3,500 1,170 580 9,780 2,930
Change from Oct. ’11 Nov. ’10 -20 70 -10 -20 130 0 20 -10 10 20 0 60 100 130 -30 -260 10 -10 -10 -20 240 690 70 30
Natural resources, mining and construction Manufacturing Trade, transportation and utilities Information Financial activities Professional and business services Educational and health services Leisure and hospitality Other services Federal government State government Local government
Nov. ’11 1,230 3,300 4,410 800 1,380 3,690 5,780 3,240 1,160 560 10,470 2,960
Oct. ’11 1,250 3,310 4,280 780 1,370 3,690 5,680 3,270 1,150 570 10,230 2,890
Total nonfarm payroll employment
38,980
38,470
38,300
Nov. ’11
Oct. ’11
Nov. ’10
2,400 6,860 8,450 390 1,250 2,930 4,730 2,890 1,340 320 1,160 5,970
2,520 6,960 8,390 390 1,230 2,940 4,730 2,890 1,330 330 1,160 6,060
2,220 6,500 8,720 390 1,300 3,160 4,820 2,940 1,350 340 1,190 6,550
-120 -100 60 0 20 -10 0 0 10 -10 0 -90
180 360 -270 0 -50 -230 -90 -50 -10 -20 -30 -580
38,690
38,930
39,480
-240
-790
510
680
Linn County Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Oregon Employment Department Natural resources, mining and construction Manufacturing Trade, transportation and utilities Information Financial activities Professional and business services Educational and health services Leisure and hospitality Other services Federal government State government Local government Total nonfarm payroll employment
Change from Oct. ’11 Nov. ’10
U O I N D E X O F EC O N O M I C I N D I CATO RS The numbers: The University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators rose 0.3 percent in October to 89.3, (1997=100), the second consecutive monthly increase. What was up: Most of the components that make up the index improved in October, including initial unemployment claims, residential building permits and the Oregon weight-distance tax, a measure of trucking activity. The interest rate spread improved as market participants upgraded their assessement of U.S. economic activity, said the report’s author, Timothy Duy
Index, 1997 = 100 92 91 90 89 88 87 86 May-11
June-11
July-11
of the University of Oregon. What was down: Core manufacturing fell, as did U.S. consumer sentiment. What stayed steady:
Aug-11
Sept.-11
Oct.-11
Employment service payrolls (mostly temporary help employees) stayed about the same, a sign of weak labor demand. The upshot: Duy con-
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cluded that “the economy has been following a startstop pattern of activity since the recession ended, with bursts of growth followed by temporary slowdowns that raise concerns of recession. We may have experienced another such episode this past summer. Still, the ongoing European financial crisis, coupled with expected fiscal contraction in the U.S. next year, suggests continued caution with regard to the outlook for 2012.” To learn more: Check out the full report at the website http://pages. uoregon.edu/oefweb/