2013 College Basketball Team Previews

TO SEE HOW WE RANKED ALL 351 D1 TEAMS, GO TO ESPN.COM/INSIDER

THE ESPN TOP

25 IT’S TIME TO COWBOY UP AS EVERY TEAM IN OUR JOINT ESPN.COM/MAG TOP 25 SHOOTS FOR THE FINAL FOUR IN ARLINGTON. OF COURSE, FOR COACH CAL’S SUPER-YOUNG, SUPERHYPED SET OF CATS, THERE’S ALWAYS DRAFT NIGHT. CAPSULES BY JEFF GOODMAN

1 KENTUCKY WHAT YOU KNOW John Calipari keeps signing top-10 recruits—13 in his five years at UK, five in this incoming class alone—and expectations remain lofty in Lexington.

WHAT YOU SHOULD No one questions PG Andrew Harrison’s natural ability, but some NBA folks wonder whether he can keep all his one-and-done cohorts happy. If all goes to plan, No. 3 recruit Julius Randle, a versatile Amar’e Stoudemire type, should challenge Andrew Wiggins for the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft. Yes, the Cats’ new talent is such that Calipari might relegate two key returnees—Alex Poythress (11.2 ppg) and Willie Cauley-Stein (62 FG%)—to the bench.

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS

1

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

32% RETURNING MINUTES

AROUND THE BASKET

MIDRANGE JUMPERS SEASON

56%

600

400

42%

’11-12

62% 800

36%

’10-11

61%

27%

’12-13 200

0

0

50

100

150 FGA

Calipari’s dribble-drive offense works only if his players can get downhill and finish at the rim.

And that’s exactly what Randle will bring. I’d expect UK’s around-the-basket attempts to revert to 2011-12 levels, when the Cats rode easy buckets all the way to a title.

FGM

Without the big-bodied guards needed to win one-on-ones, UK made one midrange J every other game in 2012-13. That won’t be a problem this season; Harrison and twin brother Aaron, both physical 6'6" guards, relish playing through contact and hitting the pull-up J.

TERMS YOU SHOULD KNOW* SHOT SELECTIONS AROUND THE BASKET Layups, dunks and tip-ins, excluding post-ups. POST-UPS When an offensive player receives the ball with his back to the basket, less than 14' from the rim. SHORT JUMPERS Inside 17'. MIDRANGE JUMPERS 17' to 20'9". THREE-POINTERS Beyond the arc in half-court set.

TEAM OFFENSIVE/ DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY Points scored/allowed per 100 possessions.

STEAL PERCENTAGE Opponent possessions that end with a steal. For a player, it accounts only for his time on the floor.

TURNOVER PERCENTAGE A team’s or opponent’s possessions that end in a turnover.

* Shot breakdowns (half-court sets only) courtesy Synergy Sports Technology LLC; metrics courtesy KenPom.com

62

ESPN The Magazine 11/11/2013

photograph by DYLAN C OULTER

2 M I C H I G A N S TAT E WHAT YOU KNOW Tom Izzo returns four starters, led by C Adreian Payne and SG Gary Harris, from a team that ranked No. 7 in defensive efficiency.

WHAT YOU SHOULD For a big guy who likes to attempt threes, Payne has an off-the-charts true shooting percentage (63%, 40th in the NCAA). No longer dealing with shoulder woes, Harris will get back to his slashing self. Guard Branden Dawson, 20 months removed from ACL surgery, is regaining the explosiveness that made him one of the best offensive-rebounding wings.

1

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

83% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS MIDRANGE JUMPERS

POST-UPS SEASON

34%

’10-11

37% 27% 200

100

43% 47%

’11-12

45%

’12-13

0

0

150

300 FGA

FGM

Now that Derrick Nix is gone, Izzo will grapple with using Payne down low, which limits his versatility, or leaning on frosh F Gavin Schilling and soph Matt Costello.

Keith Appling’s trigger finger (42 FG%) is costly in this midrange area.

Izzo’s challenge: getting Appling to shelve his scorer’s mentality and become a facilitator.

3 KANSAS WHAT YOU KNOW Bill Self lost his top five scorers, but a 10th straight Big 12 regular-season title could be in store after the coach inked the nation’s No. 2 recruiting class, led by F Andrew Wiggins.

WHAT YOU SHOULD The much-hyped Wiggins (No. 1, ESPN 100) has incredible upside, but NBA folks whisper about his lack of a killer instinct. So don’t be surprised if 6'5" freshman Wayne Selden (No. 14), who will impress with both his shooting and court vision, outshines Wiggins on the court in their one year in Lawrence.

1

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

23% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS POST-UPS

AROUND THE BASKET SEASON

55%

400

64%

’10-11

45%

’11-12

56%

44%

’12-13

59%

200

0

0

400 FGA

Everyone wants to focus on the freshmen, but this O will run through the post. Perry Ellis, a late-blooming frosh last season, will be KU’s next go-to low-post scorer.

64

800 FGM

To free up Selden and Wiggins for easy buckets, Self will try to exploit matchups by creating one-on-one opportunities off quick ball reversals.

ESPN The Magazine 11/11/2013

4 DUKE WHAT YOU KNOW Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly are both gone, but coach Mike Krzyzewski has won at least 25 games in 15 of the past 16 seasons— and that’s not going to change this year.

WHAT YOU SHOULD Small ball is all the rage, and Coach K has brought the NBA fad to Durham because his personnel requires it. Of the Blue Devils’ three primary candidates to defend the post— forwards Jabari Parker (No. 2, ESPN 100), Amile Jefferson and Josh Hairston—none is taller than 6'9". One plus to not having a true big man: speed.

Lots of it. Yes, Parker, Mississippi State transfer F Rodney Hood and versatile G Rasheed Sulaimon (11.6 ppg) are ready to lead a fast-break revolution at Duke, which has ranked above 50th in tempo only twice in the past 10 seasons.

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS POST-UPS

THREE-POINTERS SEASON

45%

1

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

58% RETURNING MINUTES

200

36%

’10-11

48%

’11-12

37%

49%

’12-13

39%

100

0

0

400

800 FGA

Coach K’s philosophy: Shoot more FTs than the opponent. Without a go-to low-post scorer, the Blue Devils will rely on multidimensional players such as Parker and Hood to get their freebies. D’s will have to worry about a different guy every night.

FGM

If you’re going to go small, you’d better be able to shoot. Duke rode Seth Curry’s hot hand to the sixth-best 3PT% in 2012-13. If Sulaimon and Matt Jones become threats from three, it’ll keep D’s from packing the lane to prevent penetration.

photograph by DYLAN C OULTER

5 ARIZONA WHAT YOU KNOW With five top-25 recruits the past two years, including Aaron Gordon (No. 4, ESPN 100) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (No. 21), Zona is ready for its close-up.

WHAT YOU SHOULD PG T.J. McConnell, a pass-first transfer who can shoot (43 3PT% at Duquesne in 2011-12), will be a stable presence early while coach Sean Miller experiments with the 6'9" Gordon at SF. Hollis-Jefferson (6'7", 215) and his go-go-gadget arms will give Miller a lockdown defender in the mold of Stacey Augmon.

2

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

44% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS AROUND THE BASKET

SHORT JUMPERS SEASON

56%

400

37%

’12-13

57% 800

36%

’10-11 ’11-12

53% 0

39% 100

0

200 FGA

FGM

The Cats’ motion O will allow Miller to isolate Gordon on the block.

When the rim is guarded, look for Gordon and junior G Nick Johnson to pull up for a short J.

With two slashers like Hollis-Jefferson and Gordon, the Cats should see their easy buckets rise to 2010-11 levels, when Derrick Williams owned the paint.

6 LOUISVILLE WHAT YOU KNOW F Chane Behanan’s indefinite suspension hurts, but the Cards have the talent to become the first team since ’07 to go back-to-back.

WHAT YOU SHOULD Juco POY Chris Jones is a more dynamic talent than his PG predecessor, Peyton Siva. At a rangy 6'8", F Montrezl Harrell is perfect for Rick Pitino’s pressing scheme and an ideal replacement for C Gorgui Dieng (9.8 ppg). A healthy 6'5" Wayne Blackshear, who was a top-30 recruit out of high school in 2011, will have a tough adjustment moving to the 4.

2

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

69% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS AROUND THE BASKET

THREE-POINTERS SEASON

55% 54% 400

30%

’11-12

57% 800

37%

’10-11

34%

’12-13 0

0

400

800 FGA

G Russ Smith (18.7 ppg) is one of the country’s best off the bounce. His ability to coexist with Jones will determine the Cards’ overall success around the hoop.

66

FGM

Louisville will let it fly from deep. Smith can create his own shot, but it’ll be up to Jones to draw the D and get sharpshooter Luke Hancock (40 3PT%) involved.

ESPN The Magazine 11/11/2013

7 OKLAHOMA STATE WHAT YOU KNOW Marcus Smart would have been a top-five pick in June’s NBA draft, and his return to Stillwater instantly makes OSU a contender to dethrone Kansas atop the Big 12.

WHAT YOU SHOULD Yes, Smart is the country’s best all-around player: 15 ppg, 6 rpg, 4 apg and a 5.3% steal rate, fifth best in the nation. He came back to school to clean up some rough spots (a clunky 1.25-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and a shaky 29% three-ball) but also to make a title run with an intriguing supporting cast. His backcourt cohort Markel Brown (15.3 ppg) scored double digits in all but four games last season.

G Phil Forte struggled as a freshman, but if he can live up to his reputation as one of the nation’s best shooters, the Cowboys will be tough to check.

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS POST-UPS

THREE-POINTERS SEASON

55% 34%

3

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

89% RETURNING MINUTES

100

33%

’12-13

42% 200

30%

’10-11 ’11-12

0

31% 0

200

400 FGA

Le’Bryan Nash, OSU’s lone legitimate post presence, shot more than 100 FTs and scored over 13 ppg in each of his first two seasons.

The 6'7" junior is most effective when he’s attacking on the block and the baseline instead of settling for J’s.

FGM

This is where Smart, the rare superstar who’s also a willing passer, really pays dividends.

With Brown, Forte and freshman G Stevie Clark (No. 68, ESPN 100), the Cowboys will be an elite three-point-shooting team. Anyone in that trio can take over a game.

photograph by DYLAN C OULTER

9 MICHIGAN

8 FLORIDA WHAT YOU KNOW His top three scorers gone, Billy Donovan has a new cast of characters primed for a fourth straight Elite Eight trip.

WHAT YOU SHOULD UF is stacked again, so expect another efficient offense (top 20 in each of the past three seasons). PG Kasey Hill (No. 10, ESPN 100) will get into the lane with ease and free up F Patric Young (10.1 ppg). Casey Prather (62 FG%), VaTech transfer F Dorian Finney-Smith (No. 18, ESPN 100 in 2011) and No. 12 recruit F Chris Walker (ETA December) give Donovan one of his deepest teams.

3

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

55% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS AROUND THE BASKET

WHAT YOU KNOW Mitch McGary (14.3 ppg, 10.7 rpg in the tourney) and Glenn Robinson III are back, and Ann Arbor is abuzz with expectations of a return trip to the Final Four.

WHAT YOU SHOULD G Nik Stauskas (44 3PT%) made his bones outside, but he’s not just a shooter. Look for John Beilein to run more of his offense through the 6'6" Canadian to take pressure off McGary’s nagging back and inexperienced PGs Spike Albrecht and Derrick Walton (No. 30, ESPN 100). Walton doesn’t shoot like Trey Burke, but he excels in open court and gives UM the best chance for a run in March.

POST-UPS

THREE-POINTERS ’10-11

60%

’11-12

61% 800

400

37%

68

RETURNING MINUTES

51%

36% 0

800

40

FGM

The Gators finished last season tied for sixth in made threes. That might be hard for Donovan’s crew to keep up after it lost three of its top shooters: Erik Murphy, Mike Rosario and Kenny Boynton. But pairing Finney-Smith, who can stretch the D at the 4, and Michael Frazier (47 3PT%) is a recipe to continue the Gators’ triple tradition.

ESPN The Magazine 11/11/2013

80

’10-11

0

RETURNING MINUTES

THREE-POINTERS

34%

61%

’10-11

35%

36%

58%

’11-12

34%

38%

’12-13 0

55% 400

800 FGA

Beilein plays four guys on the perimeter so much that Michigan doesn’t get many looks in the post. I mean, the Wolverines have averaged 22 made buckets off post-ups per year the past three seasons. But I’ll be shocked if McGary isn’t more of a focal point of the offense. He has a nice jump-hook over his right shoulder.

52%

SEASON

’11-12

35% 400

2

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS AROUND THE BASKET

THREE-POINTERS

57%

38%

FGA

Hill excels off ball screens and has the athleticism to get to the rim and finish better than any Donovan point guard in a while. He just sees plays develop before they happen.

Finney-Smith will instantly increase the team’s easy buckets.

He’s a terrific passer and gives UF an excellent cutter to play off Hill’s penetration.

62%

WHAT YOU KNOW Coach Jim Boeheim enters his first season in the ACC without a proven PG after losing Michael CarterWilliams to the NBA (76ers).

WHAT YOU SHOULD Syracuse’s chemistry will be better without Carter-Williams, whose leadership style didn’t sit well with everyone.

The Orange won’t miss a beat offensively with 6'2" freshman Tyler Ennis (No. 20, ESPN 100) running the show and F C.J. Fair (14.5 ppg) as the focus. But their D, which ranked eighth in efficiency last season, will suffer without Carter-Williams’ disruptive length atop the 2-3.

SEASON

’12-13 0

2

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS

SEASON

56%

10 S Y R A C U S E

800

400

0

400

800 FGA

FGM

This is where the loss of Burke really hurts. Will Walton and Albrecht be able to draw the defense and kick the way Burke did? Sure, Stauskas will continue to have success from deep. But if Robinson (32 3PT%) makes a permanent move to small forward, you have to wonder how much Michigan can really stretch the defense.

33%

’12-13 0

One of the biggest reasons I’m so high on the Orange? Fair’s ability to beat any D when he posts up off the lane and makes a move toward the bucket. He’s such a tough kid to game-plan for. Boeheim will run a quick two-man screen game, freeing up Fair and fellow F Jerami Grant (3.9 ppg as a frosh) to attack the hoop from the midpost.

FGM

The surefire way to keep Fair from being doubled: Hit open shots from the outside. The Orange got plenty of them last year and couldn’t convert (195th in three-point shooting), which really shrunk the court. If redshirt sophomore G Trevor Cooney and Duke transfer Michael Gbinije consistently hit threes, defenses won’t be able to pack the paint.

FROM LEFT: STACY REVERE/GETTY IMAGES; ALBERT PENA/CAL SPORT MEDIA/AP IMAGES; DEBBY WONG/USA TODAY SPORTS

11 NORTH CAROLINA WHAT YOU KNOW After his tumultuous offseason, G P.J. Hairston (14.6 ppg), UNC’s best returning player, is facing a still-to-be-determined suspension.

WHAT YOU SHOULD Reggie Bullock’s departure will put even more of an onus on sophomore PG Marcus Paige to carry the scoring load while Hairston is out. He’s not Ty Lawson, but the 6'1" Paige naturally plays at Roy Williams’ desired pace (top 20 in tempo eight of the past 10 seasons). Williams would prefer to have a post presence, but if one doesn’t emerge, look for UNC to go small and play 6'9" combo forward James Michael McAdoo (14.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg) at the 5 spot.

3

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

69% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS POST-UPS

THREE-POINTERS

12 O H I O S T A T E WHAT YOU KNOW PG Aaron Craft is back for a final season, and so is his if-you-ain’t-bumpin’-you-ain’t-tryin’ D that’s been the backbone of OSU’s three straight top-10 defenses.

WHAT YOU SHOULD From Evan Turner to Jared Sullinger to Deshaun Thomas, Thad Matta has had a 17-plus-ppg scorer for five consecutive seasons.

That streak is in serious jeopardy now that hot-and-cold junior forward LaQuinton Ross (16.9 mpg, 8.3 ppg) is the Buckeyes’ presumed No. 1 option on offense. No matter the streak, Matta will need better interior scoring from OSU’s lone player over 6'8", Amir Williams (3.5 ppg).

43% 36% 400

200

’10-11

32%

’11-12

34%

MIDRANGE JUMPERS

70

RETURNING MINUTES

THREE-POINTERS

42%

36% 0

35% 400

800 FGM

With Bullock gone, UNC loses nearly one-third of its made three-pointers from last season. Paige can make shots, but he’s not a guy who can take over the game. When Hairston (40 3PT%) comes back, he’ll solve so many of the Heels’ problems on the perimeter. Without him, this offense just doesn’t have many shooters who require a D’s attention.

ESPN The Magazine 11/11/2013

200

100

0

55% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS AROUND THE BASKET

POST-UPS

42%

44%

56%

’10-11

’11-12

34%

62%

’11-12

48%

’12-13

35%

56%

’12-13

45%

0

400 FGA

Much like Thomas, whose fingerprints are all over these stats, the 6'8" Ross can affect the game in a multitude of ways. Matta will use Ross’ versatility to the Buckeyes’ advantage, running him off screens and having Craft get him the ball in pick-and-pop situations. The goal: Create mismatches that Ross can exploit in this middle area.

4

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

SEASON

’10-11

41%

FGA

Roy has usually had a post player to whom he could just throw the ball, but it’s hard to find that guy on this team. Frosh F Isaiah Hicks (No. 18, ESPN 100) will make a contribution, but at 6'8", 220 pounds, he’s not strong enough to be a consistent low-post player. Strength isn’t a problem for Kennedy Meeks (6'9", 290), but he lacks a go-to move.

74%

WHAT YOU KNOW The Tigers’ cupcakes are gone. Josh Pastner’s squad will play seven games against five teams in our top 25: Louisville, Oklahoma State, Florida, UConn and Gonzaga.

WHAT YOU SHOULD Transfer guard Michael Dixon (13.5 ppg at Missouri in 2011-12) may be the nation’s most significant pickup. With Dixon and G Joe Jackson (13.6 ppg, 4.8 apg) at the helm of a rangy four-guard lineup, the Tigers’ play will be fast and furious.

But it’ll all be for naught if Memphis’ frontcourt—6'9" F Shaq Goodwin, George Washington transfer David Pellom and F Austin Nichols (No. 15, ESPN 100)—can’t control the glass.

SEASON

’12-13 0

3

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS

SEASON

39%

13 M E M P H I S

800 FGM

Because Thomas was so dominant elsewhere, the Buckeyes didn’t have to rely on outside shooting the past two seasons.

OSU doesn’t have that luxury this year. The pressure will be on Craft and Shannon Scott to deliver the ball to G Lenzelle Smith (37 3PT%) on time and on target. As long as Smith moves better off the ball, he’ll get open looks.

800

400

0

0

100 FGA

A John Calipari disciple, Pastner has always emphasized attacking the hoop. And that’s not changing any time soon with these four guards and a couple of bigs who can finish. An added wrinkle: The guards can shoot—Chris Crawford made a pair of threes per game last year, so it’s not as if teams will be able to back off and play a prevent defense.

200 FGM

The Tigers’ challenge is not to become so guard-oriented that they ignore their talented guys up front.

Pellom was a 69% shooter two seasons ago. Nichols’ length will make him a tough matchup. And if Goodwin can stay on the floor (he committed four or more fouls in 17 of 36 games), he could have a breakout season.

FROM LEFT: MITCHELL LAYTON/GETTY IMAGES; GREGORY SHAMUS/GETTY IMAGES; PAUL SANCYA/AP IMAGES

14 V C U

15 W I C H I T A S T A T E

WHAT YOU KNOW Coach Shaka Smart spurned major offers once again, so the Rams will be efficient (A-10’s top offensive efficiency) and favored to make their fourth straight tourney.

WHAT YOU SHOULD Smart preaches pressure D (28.5 TO%, No. 1 in D1), and this is his deepest roster yet: Senior F Juvonte Reddic and junior G Treveon Graham (29.7 ppg, 13.9 rpg combined) have the talent to play for any school, and FSU transfer PF Terrance Shannon lets Graham (6'6") move to the 3. New starting PG Briante Weber (D1-best 7.6 steal percentage) just needs to dictate the offense as well as he defended off the bench last season.

5

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

63% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS POST-UPS

WHAT YOU KNOW Gone are Wichita’s mainstays from a surprise Final Four, C Carl Hall and PG Malcolm Armstead (team-high 28.6 mpg apiece).

WHAT YOU SHOULD Steady soph Fred VanVleet saw action in all 39 games (16.2 mpg) and takes over at PG; 6'9" Louisiana-Lafayette transfer Kadeem Coleby will add athletic shotblocking; and soph wing Evan Wessel returns from a broken finger after he helped the team to an 8–0 start.

Ultimately, Wichita is as good as senior F Cleanthony Early, last year’s leading scorer (13.9 ppg). He must improve his left and his D if he wants to lead the Shockers deep into the NCAA tourney.

200

100

AROUND THE BASKET

THREE-POINTERS 37%

’10-11 ’11-12

33%

45%

’12-13

35% 0

72

63%

’10-11

62%

’11-12

400

800

400

FGM

They’ll keep shooting threes. But can they replace Troy Daniels (40.3 3PT%), who led VCU with 308 attempts?

Senior Rob Brandenberg (10.4 ppg) will be key; he has at least one three in 28 of his past 30 games.

Melvin Johnson (17.3 mpg as a true frosh) is also a threat. They both have to stretch the D to complement Reddic and Graham in the post.

ESPN The Magazine 11/11/2013

800

POST-UPS

35% 36% 34%

RETURNING MINUTES

THREE-POINTERS

0

48%

’10-11

39%

50%

’11-12

38%

50% 400

800 FGA

Extremely efficient, the Shockers create some of the toughest matchups in the country. Their numbers around the basket are high because of Early.

He’s strong enough to post up, but he can step out and is also really good playing off the lane. That gray area is hard to guard because good shooters like Early can rip it and go.

61%

SEASON

’12-13 0

4

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS

THREE-POINTERS

56% FGA

The numbers are skewed because a ton of VCU’s shots are created by the D. But I expect half-court paint opportunities to increase. The Rams will play through Reddic (6'9", 250), who has late-first-round potential, and Graham, which will equate to more post-ups and isos.

Shannon (6'8", 240) is also a big, physical target down low.

RETURNING MINUTES

WHAT YOU KNOW In 2012-13 the Zags earned their first No. 1 NCAA seed. But they lost to Wichita State in the round of 32, and top scorer Kelly Olynyk (17.8 ppg) left for the NBA (Celtics).

WHAT YOU SHOULD Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr. are a solid backcourt and started as frosh. Pangos runs the O and is a deep threat (41.7 3PT%), while Bell is a versatile wing with lockdown D. Providence transfer Gerard Coleman isn’t a shooter, but the 6'4" slasher can get inside, where Olynyk and PF Elias Harris (Lakers) will be missed. Soph Przemek Karnowski (7'1", 305) and 6'9" senior Sam Dower need to play smart; there’s virtually no frontcourt depth.

SEASON

44% 0

49%

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS

SEASON

47%

6

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

16 G O N Z A G A

400

200

FGM

Coach Greg Marshall runs a balanced system.

The versatility of Early and the Shockers’ good shooting make the team hard to defend in a lot of places. Even with Armstead gone (team-high 61 threes), Wichita will still shoot a high rate from long range—and the coaches are high on soph G Ron Baker and Wessel (46 3PT% before the injury).

37%

’12- 13 0

0

400

800 FGA

Gonzaga will play through Karnowski in the high and low post. If he’s the passer I think he is, he’ll remind folks of Arvydas Sabonis.

But coach Mark Few has to replace a lot of pieces, so chemistry is a concern. Coleman averaged double digits at Providence, and he adds an athletic dimension. But can he be a blend guy?

FGM

Bell will spot up in transition, and Pangos will shoot consistent threes. That remains the same. But I see the Zags playing more around the basket, with more cutters off their post action, and not playing off the high ball screen as much. A guy to watch is Dower, who will slide into Harris’ role and be pressured to create scoring chances off double-teams.

FROM LEFT: KEVIN JAIRAI/USA TODAY SPORTS; ROBERT DEUTSCH/USA TODAY SPORTS; STEVEN BISIG/USA TODAY SPORTS

17 M A R Q U E T T E WHAT YOU KNOW Buzz Williams went from anonymous assistant to prime-time coach with five straight NCAA tourney bids, reaching the Elite Eight last season.

WHAT YOU SHOULD Marquette signed ESPN 100 preps PG Duane Wilson (No. 53), SG JaJuan Johnson (No. 27) and SF Deonte Burton (No. 39), who could all play, and it possesses a rarity in college: two experienced senior bigs in Chris Otule (6'11", 275) and Davante Gardner (6'8", 290). But it lacks a star to replace Vander Blue (33 mpg, 14.8 ppg). One candidate is senior F Jamil Wilson, who had 9.7 ppg off the bench and brings versatility and high upside.

18 C O N N E C T I C U T

4

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

56% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS AROUND THE BASKET

WHAT YOU KNOW In his first year at the helm, Kevin Ollie coaxed UConn to 20 W’s. But the Huskies were ineligible to Dance due to a one-year ban.

WHAT YOU SHOULD The guard trio of senior Shabazz Napier, junior Ryan Boatright and soph Omar Calhoun posted 30-plus mpg and double-digit ppg. Ollie just doesn’t have bigs: 6'10" senior Tyler Olander has scored 3.2 career ppg, and the young posts don’t appear ready to contribute.

The lack of proven bigs (no player averaged more than 5.5 rpg) may be less of an issue in the new, weaker American, but the guards must hit the glass that much harder.

800

400

AROUND THE BASKET

THREE-POINTERS 35%

52%

’10-11

35%

57%

’11-12

32%

56%

’12-13

’12-13

34%

29% 0

53% 400

800

They’ve never been a good jump-shooting team, and I think they’ll shoot fewer threes this season. Jamil Wilson (6'7") has to be the undersized 4 who gets to the rack and creates dump-offs. I’m not big on hyping a kid before his first basket, but Johnson has the ability to contribute. Johnson or Duane Wilson has to be solid for this offense.

ESPN The Magazine 11/11/2013

800

400

0

FGM

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

71% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS AROUND THE BASKET

32%

POST-UPS

0

48% 59% 400

800

800

400

0

FGM

Boatright, Napier and Calhoun combined to take 77% of UConn’s total threes last season.

Again, the guards create everything, inside and out. It’s either drive or shoot. DeAndre Daniels is their 4 (12.1 ppg), but he thinks he’s a guard too, and he likes to drift around. He’s improved and is a good ball screener because he can pop and make plays.

44%

’10-11

55%

FGA

UConn’s around-thebasket shots are high for one reason: penetration.

Everything happens off the guards. The Huskies use a lot of angles to screen for the guards to get them in different situations. Boatright and Napier are a perfect tandem and have really good runners in the lane; Calhoun is smart and plays well off their penetration.

8

SEASON

’10-11

FGA

74

RETURNING MINUTES

THREE-POINTERS

’11-12

Everything Williams’ offense does is predicated on paint touches. Everyone thinks paint touches are just post-ups, but in this system, paint touches are drives too. Gone are Junior Cadougan and Blue, two of the best at getting into the paint, so having either Otule or Gardner as a low-post scorer in the game at all times is important.

88%

WHAT YOU KNOW Tony Bennett finally has players to fit his motion system, headlined by senior G Joe Harris, the ACC’s top returning scorer (16.3 ppg).

WHAT YOU SHOULD Sophomore Malcolm Brogdon (6'5") missed last season due to a foot injury but should excel in his new PG role. If not, frosh London Perrantes (No. 96, ESPN 100) is capable. Up front, Bennett has a long line of posts to rotate, including soph Mike Tobey (6'11"), 6'8" senior Akil Mitchell (13.1 ppg, 8.9 rpg) and South Carolina transfer Anthony Gill (6'8").

With that kind of depth, putting up points on the Cavs D (second most efficient in ACC play) will be a tall task.

SEASON

53% 0

4

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS

SEASON

54%

19 V I R G I N I A

’11-12

51%

’12-13

43% 0

100

200 FGA

UVa is a hard-cutting, hard-curling team. The around-the-basket shots are off curls, and Harris plays off screens as well as anyone in the country.

These shots also have to do with size: Mitchell, Tobey and 6'6" soph Justin Anderson. I look for Gill and Mitchell to be what Mike Scott was a couple of years ago, a guy who can score playing off the lane.

FGM

If Tobey develops into a low-post scorer, this is a different team. I look for them to post him and Gill a lot. Sophomore Evan Nolte (6'8") is a 4 who can shoot, so that will pull bigs away from the basket. The real question is whether Brogdon can facilitate. Bennett’s good teams have had big, physical PGs, and Brogdon fits that bill.

But he isn’t proven.

FROM LEFT: BRUCE SCHWARTZMAN; MITCHELL LAYTON/GETTY IMAGES; GEOFF BURKE/USA TODAY SPORTS

21 W I S C O N S I N WHAT YOU KNOW Bo Ryan’s Badgers won’t give up points (No. 1 defensive efficiency in D1), miss the NCAAs (15 in a row) or stray from the swing offense.

WHAT YOU SHOULD Wisconsin is eager to get junior G Josh Gasser (45 3PT%) back from last year’s torn ACL and see what wing Sam Dekker (9.6 ppg off the bench as a true frosh) can do with more playing time. Same goes for 6'11" junior Frank Kaminsky, whose 10.3 mpg will increase drastically with the loss of bigs Jared Berggren (11 ppg) and Ryan Evans (10.1 ppg).

5

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

57% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS AROUND THE BASKET

THREE-POINTERS SEASON

63%

’10-11

38%

52%

’11-12

37%

57% 800

400

33%

’12-13 0

400

0

800 FGA

All five guys can shoot.

Dekker is Ryan’s best post-up player and is one of the best on the perimeter. G Ben Brust (team-high 79 threes) is the heart of this team.

The swing offense is based on exploiting matchups, putting defenders in positions they’re unaccustomed to guarding. That’s why UW gets to the rim.

22 O R E G O N

20 C R E I G H T O N WHAT YOU KNOW When 6'8" do-it-all F Doug McDermott (23.2 ppg) decided to return for his senior season, the Bluejays instantly became legit contenders in their first season in the new Big East.

WHAT YOU SHOULD The difference between a No. 6 and No. 12 seed will be whether McDermott’s athleticism translates to the Big East. But he had no problem scoring against some of the best young NBA players at a Team USA minicamp this summer. He’ll need to rely on 6'5" senior G Grant Gibbs out of double-teams that will come even more often now that C Gregory Echenique (9.7 ppg) is gone. Senior F Ethan Wragge (45% from deep) could see an expanded role if coach Greg McDermott goes small.

But the D (sixth in efficiency in MVC play) must improve in a tougher conference.

76

ESPN The Magazine 11/11/2013

FGM

WHAT YOU KNOW Dana Altman loves one-year transfers: He’s added UNLV F Mike Moser and Detroit G Jason Calliste, both double-figure scorers.

WHAT YOU SHOULD The Ducks lost three starters who combined for 30 ppg and 18.4 rpg. PG Dominic Artis and SG Damyean Dotson (11.4 ppg) each played 20-plus mpg, and Altman will build the team around them. The concern is finding a post to help Moser (6'8"). Juco transfer Waverly Austin (6'11") certainly didn’t look the part in limited action last season.

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS POST-UPS

THREE-POINTERS

6

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

44% RETURNING MINUTES

SEASON

50%

6

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

81% RETURNING MINUTES

320

’10-11

37%

53%

’11-12

42%

54%

’12-13

41%

160

0

0

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS AROUND THE BASKET 400

51%

800 FGA

Coach McDermott will be pressured to put his son in different places, and even without Echenique, Doug will continue to be the main option on post-ups. Those are important; this team wants to spread you out to create open shots on the perimeter.

THREE-POINTERS SEASON

FGM

McDermott shot 49% on threes, and Wragge is ridiculous too. But getting Gibbs back for a sixth year was the next most important thing.

He is physical and sees the floor (team-high 5.8 apg) as well as PG Austin Chatman. They get it to guys in the right spots.

400

37%

’11-12

56% 800

34%

’10-11

58%

34%

’12-13 0

0

400

800 FGA

Moser may have the most impact of any transfer in the nation. He’s versatile and fits perfectly in Altman’s system: four out, with lots of cutting for easy buckets.

FGM

Threes will stay low.

The Ducks make downhill cuts to the rim, attack matchups with spacing and post different guys.

Artis must stay healthy at the point.

photograph by DYLAN C OULTER

24 U C L A

23 N E W M E X I C O WHAT YOU KNOW Steve Alford bolted for big bucks, so his buddy Craig Neal gets to slide over a chair, inheriting a team that has finished back-to-back seasons atop the Mountain West.

WHAT YOU SHOULD The Lobos can withstand SG Tony Snell’s early exit; the Bulls rookie had talent but a tendency to coast. Besides, senior G Kendall Williams (13.3 ppg), just the fifth player in program history with 1,000 points, 400 assists and 100 steals, is back. Junior Hugh Greenwood should get the brunt of playing time at the point, while Neal’s 6'4" son Cullen (No. 87, ESPN 100) joins Williams off the ball as a second perimeter scoring option.

7

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

63% RETURNING MINUTES

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS POST-UPS

25 T E N N E S S E E

WHAT YOU KNOW Steve Alford inherits a Ben Howland–built team that made the NCAAs. He must replace PG Larry Drew II (Heat) and the top scorer, G Shabazz Muhammad (Wolves).

WHAT YOU SHOULD Muhammad’s early exit was addition by subtraction; he was one-dimensional and not a glue guy, unlike soph Kyle Anderson, a 6'9" point forward who makes everyone better. The 6'10" Wear twins are back as seniors, and soph SG Jordan Adams (15.3 ppg) is fully recovered after breaking a foot in the Pac-12 tourney.

So there should be no trouble scoring, but a lack of athleticism may force Alford to go zone over motion.

MIDRANGE JUMPERS

44%

200

44%

’12-13

100

0

AROUND THE BASKET

41% 42% 35% 0

100

200

78

POST-UPS

Their midrange jumpers were high because of Snell. He was a great cutter and a 6'7" target.

They could miss that.

I think coach Neal will attack mismatches a little bit more out of sets as opposed to motion.

Williams is a tough matchup. He can jump and knock down a shot, and he’s so quick. One area I worry about is his curling off motion.

ESPN The Magazine 11/11/2013

800

400

41% 43%

45%

’11-12

55%

’12-13

47%

44%

’12-13

56%

0

48%

55%

’10-11 ’11-12

200

400 FGA

The Bruins’ around-thebasket attempts were a lot of Muhammad. I think Anderson will fill that role, and I think Adams (6'5") will be the focal point of their offense. He has an old-man’s game, which is perfect for Alford’s motion because he knows how to read screens at a high level.

But who will initiate the motion? Someone has to step up at the point.

RETURNING MINUTES

AROUND THE BASKET

58% 0

60%

SEASON

56%

FGM

5

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS

POST-UPS

56% FGA

The Lobos could be this season’s Gonzaga.

They’re mature and have a legit seven-footer in junior Alex Kirk (12.1 ppg) to play through. Senior Cameron Bairstow (6'9") is also a big target, and he had an excellent summer for the Australian national team. He’s the type of player the average fan doesn’t know now but will by March.

RETURNING MINUTES

SEASON

’10-11 ’11-12

67%

SETH GREENBERG’S SHOT SELECTIONS

SEASON

48%

7

JOE LUNARDI’S PROJECTED NCAA TOURNEY SEED

WHAT YOU KNOW The Vols return three potential All-SEC players: senior SG Jordan McRae (15.7 ppg) and senior PF Jeronne Maymon, who missed last season due to injury, and junior PF Jarnell Stokes (12.4 ppg, 9.6 rpg).

WHAT YOU SHOULD Cuonzo Martin lacks a proven point guard; Memphis transfer Antonio Barton and frosh Darius Thompson will vie to replace Trae Golden, who left for Georgia Tech.

Freshman wing Robert Hubbs III (No. 29, ESPN 100) should elevate a middling offense (No. 63 in efficiency last season in D1), while Maymon and Stokes must lift a pitiful defense that ranked 122nd in efficiency.

200

100

’10-11

0

FGM

David and Travis Wear will be ball movers and reversal guys in the high and low post. Alford will also space them out to open the lane. But again, who initiates the motion? Alford’s son Bryce, a freshman, has a great feel for the game, while Zach LaVine (No. 50, ESPN 100) is a world-class athlete. One of them needs to develop into a play starter.

0

400

800 FGA

Post-ups and shots around the basket are going to blow up because of Maymon and Stokes. They will be the focal point of Tennessee’s offense and will draw plenty of double-teams. They’re grown men, both 6'8", 260. While Martin is more of a motion coach, he’ll get them screened and isolated; the offense will run through them.

FGM

Don’t expect long-range jumpers to go up much.

McRae, who took the most threes last season (169), is a slashing shooter and athletic enough to score off the bounce. The same with Hubbs. But both will get buckets off kick-outs when the D collapses.

The Vols still need a play starter, and I think Martin likes Thompson over Barton at the point.

FROM LEFT: JOE ROBBINS/GETTY IMAGES; BRUCE SCHWARTZMAN; DON MCPEAK/USA TODAY SPORTS