An Idiot's Guide To Watching Football

NFL

PARDON ME, COACH

EVERY FAN WORTH HIS FACE PAINT THINKS THE MAN IN CHARGE SHOULD LISTEN TO HIS ADVICE. HERE’S THE SHOCKER: THE STATS SAY HE’S NOT ALWAYS CRAZY.

BOB LEVEY/GETTY IMAGES

12/23/2013 ES P N T h e M a g a zin e

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PLAYBOOK

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NFL

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“IT’S FOURTH AND SHORT …

GO FOR IT!”

DISTANCE

Turns out those dudes in the gorilla suits are correct. From 2001 through Week 12 of this season, teams converted fourth-and-short plays (one to three yards to go) 60% of the time, and that climbs to 67% when offenses run the ball. Those are extremely favorable odds. For example, going for it on fourth and one from your own 40 is worth 0.73 expected points to your offense, which is more than triple the expected points a punt would generate.* As the chart below shows, there’s no reason to get cute on fourth and short; smashmouth football will do just fine. —HENRY GARGIULO AND JOHN PAROLIN, ESPN STATS & INFORMATION

54%

1

>> >>

“GO FOR THE TWO-POINT CONVERSION!”

That old couple with matching mullets is right: Your coach should go for two—but only if he elects to run it. Since 2001, rushing tries on two-pointers have been successful 57% of the time, which translates to 1.13 points per attempt, more than on any other post-TD option. Conversely, as the accompanying numbers show, teams actually gain more points per attempt when they settle for the PAT rather than trying to throw their way to a two-point conversion. —H.G. AND J.P.

99% SUCCESS RATE

57%

69%

44%

2 3 0%

25%

50%

.99

75%

FOURTH-DOWN PASSING SUCCESS RATE FOURTH-DOWN RUSHING SUCCESS RATE KICK THE PAT

*CONTROLLING FOR THE FOLLOWING SCENARIO: IT’S A TIE GAME, AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SECOND QUARTER, BOTH TEAMS HAVE ALL THEIR TIMEOUTS AND THE DECISION IS BEING MADE BY THE HOME TEAM, WHICH PLAYS ON A GRASS FIELD.

3

“THROW THE RED FLAG!”

1.13

POINTS/ATTEMPT

.89 PASS FOR 2

RUN FOR 2

Since 2001, NFL coaches have won only 39% of their challenges. So, sorry, Scary Guy With the Face Tattoo, but with TDs and turnovers now automatically reviewed, do you really want Coach to risk losing a TO to get another look at a second-down spot?

No, you don’t, especially in the second half, when a full portfolio of TOs is essential to a comeback. Of course, there are exceptions …

—H.G. AND J.P. ... IF THE REF IS ONE OF THESE GUYS: MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A REVIEWED CALL REVERSED

... IF YOUR COACH IS ONE OF THESE GUYS: BEST ACTIVE COACHES AT CHALLENGES

70%

67%

67%

58%

47%

44%

LESLIE FRAZIER VIKINGS

DENNIS ALLEN RAIDERS

MARC TRESTMAN BEARS

CARL CHEFFERS*

CLETE BLAKEMAN

ALBERTO RIVERON

*CHEFFERS IS THE ONLY ACTIVE REFEREE WITH A REVERSAL RATE ABOVE 48%, THE REPLACEMENT-REF LEVEL FROM LAST SEASON.

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ESPN The Magazine 12/23/2013

illustrations by KIKUO JOHNSON

PLAYBOOK

NFL

COLD HARD FACTS PRESENTED BY

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SOCCER

“ WIN THE COIN TOSS, TAKE THE BALL!”

This one is close, but you can—gently—tell the shirtless guy in the clown wig he’s wrong. As tempting as it is to start on offense and “get the momentum,” it doesn’t really matter who has the ball first. Teams that choose to receive the opening kickoff win 49.1% of the time, compared with 50.9% for teams that defer. So you might as well follow Bill Belichick’s preferred strategy: defer and get an extra second-half possession. —H.G. AND J.P.

Sure, UEFA is chock-full of FIFA’s top-ranked teams, but we took a look back at World Cup qualifying, and as it turns out, those who claim CONCACAF has the hardest road to the finals might be right.

HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE IN WORLD CUP QUALIFYING NORTH/CENTRAL AMERICA 0.80

AFRICA

0.79

SOUTH AMERICA

0.77

ASIA 0.62

EUROPE 0.40

4

In the past four qualifying cycles, home-field advantage has been worth more in CONCACAF— 0.8 goals per game—than in any other conference.

“ESTABLISH THE RUN!”

HOME VS. AWAY GOALS, PAST FOUR QUALIFYING CAMPAIGNS

Time to drop some knowledge on the guy in the Tim Biakabutuka jersey. From 2007 to ’12, the team that passed more efficiently in the first quarter won about 61% of the time, versus 56% for the team that ran more efficiently. Add in the fact that teams that ran more in the fourth quarter won about 84% of their games and this much is clear: Advocates of “establishing the run” have the cause and effect backward. Teams don’t win because they establish the run early; they win because they establish the pass early and run the ball late to protect their lead. —DANNY TUCCITTO, FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS

104 84 HOME GOALS

52

AWAY GOALS

MEXICO

536

6 ONSIDE ATTEMPTS RECOVERED

135 68

69

50%

13%

1ST - 3RD QUARTERS

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ESPN The Magazine 12/23/2013

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4TH QUARTER

“SURPRISE ’EM. ONSIDE KICK!”

Since 2001, desperation onside kicks in the fourth quarter have a 13% success rate. But a surprise onside in the first three quarters is recovered 50% of the time and is worth double the expected points (0.31) of a normal kickoff (0.15).* As the chart shows, 400 fewer onside kicks have been tried in quarters one through three, but nearly the same number were recovered. So tell that lady wearing the fake beard she’s right. This time. —H.G. AND J.P. *SEE CAVEATS ON PREVIOUS PAGE.

USA

The effect of tough road games is clear. The U.S. has outscored opponents by 2.1 goals per game stateside but by just 0.1 goals on the road. Mexico?

Plus-2.6 goals at Estadio Azteca, versus plus-0.5 on the road.

75% Javier Hernandez had a famously poor qualification, but he did do well on the road: He was tops in CONCACAF in road goals, scoring three of his four away from home this go-round.

STATS COURTESY OF ESPN STATS & INFORMATION