2013 College Football Team Previews

ESPN POWER RANKINGS

PLAYERS COME AND GO, but somehow the best college programs remain at the top. Turns out it’s all about identity. To reveal how teams make their indelible marks, we had ESPN analysts Brock Huard and David Pollack identify go-to plays and defensive missions. And to help you cash in this fall, our Insiders show how to top Vegas in key games. The takeaway? Roll with the Tide.

ALABAMA

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES LAST SEASON 13–1 (7–1 SEC WEST)

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

BIGGER, STRONGER, FASTER AND THE TITLE FAVORITE ... AGAIN.

@ TEXAS A&M SEPT. 14

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP GUN TRIPS RIGHT 18 STRETCH Everything the Tide run has a simplistic beauty to it. There’s no better example than the outside stretch/zone run, which forces defenders sideline to sideline and controls the clock.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

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ESPN The Magazine 00/00/2013

VS. LSU NOV. 9

-13

-10

-7 PS Tide off bye; with extra prep, Saban is 15–4 at Bama.

1 3

BF Limit Manziel (76% of O) and the Tide roll, big.

-10

PS Bama is 32–3 at home the past 5 seasons.

BF My top 2 D’s; Bama’s No. 2 O gets the W.

2 1 The staple of Nick Saban offenses is linemen like junior LT Cyrus Kouandjio (6'6", 310) who use their athleticism to win on plays that force them to reach the second level.

2 RB T.J. Yeldon’s 6.1 ypa vs. ranked teams was fifth best in the FBS (minimum 50 carries). Yeldon consistently makes the smart cut here and uses his burst and power in the open field.

3 QB AJ McCarron has one of college football’s best play-action fakes and used it on 43% of his TDs in 2012.

WR Amari Cooper (16.9 ypc) will be heavily targeted out of sets like this.

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U Bama makes you play lefthanded. LB C.J. Mosley did a bit of

everything in 2012—tackles (107), sacks (4)—and he’ll only get better, especially with one of the nation’s best safeties, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (5 INTs), cleaning up behind him.

illustration by MARK MATCHO

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

11.1 37

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M Broken plays. Bama defenders are robots—well-coached, film-ingesting robots—trained to take away tendencies. But cues become null when the unscripted happens. Other than this, my advice to O-coordinators: Good luck.

08/19/2013 ESPN The Magazine

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OHIO STATE LAST SEASON 12–0 (8–0 BIG TEN LEADERS)

BANNED NO LONGER, IT’S NATIONAL TITLE OR BUST FOR THE BUCKEYES.

HUARD’S HUDDLE TREY LEFT 16 QB POWER While at Florida, Urban Meyer handed Tim Tebow a playbook heavy on designed QB runs. Two BCS titles and the Heisman followed. Now Meyer is using the same plays—this time with QB Braxton Miller—to run circles around Big Ten D’s.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

OSU has plenty of talent, starting with LB Ryan Shazier and CB Bradley Roby (led FBS with 1.73 passes defended a game). In fact, the Buckeyes won’t meet a team with better players in the regular season, so they’ll play it safe and wait for the O to make a mistake.

2

3

1

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M 1 With RB Rod Smith

(6'3", 238) playing lead blocker, the Buckeyes get a helmet on everyone in the box. Meyer’s various spread formations force the D to still account for the pass catchers, which gives OSU a numbers advantage.

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2 First-team All-Big Ten OG

Andrew Norwell (6'6", 319) is the key to this play. His ability to stay flat—with his eyes up—and pick up one of the two edge defenders enables Miller to churn out big gainers as a runner (10 runs of 30-plus yards in 2012, second among QBs).

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

3 Miller (1,271 rushing

yards, 13 TDs in 2012) dominates one-on-one matchups with defensive backs in space. Last October against Nebraska, the junior scampered for a career-best 186 yards (11.6 ypc) on plays just like this one.

OSU’s bend-but-don’tbreak style works, to a point. Against Big Ten teams? No problem.

But a team with better athletes—like in a potential BCS title game—will turn breakdowns and short gains into TDs instead of FGs.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

VS. WISCONSIN SEPT. 28

-13 -5 PS UW is 1–7 in Big Ten road openers since 2005.

BF Badgers have the No. 6 O, say my ratings.

@ NORTHWESTERN OCT. 5

-9 PS Buckeyes have won 28 of 29 since 1972.

-5 BF Stopping NW QB Kain Colter (61% of O) is key.

10.4 16

%

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

MIKE MCGINNIS/GETTY IM AGES

LAST SEASON 12–2 (8–1 PAC-12 NORTH)

STANFORD IF THIS TREE FALLS, THE WHOLE COUNTRY WILL HEAR IT.

OREGON LAST SEASON 12–1 (8–1 PAC-12 NORTH)

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP HEAVY I RIGHT 17 POWER Stanford pounds an old-fashioned we’re-gonna-run-it-just-try-tostop-us power-I. It’s enough to make Marty Schottenheimer blush and give the Cardinal one of the FBS’s most lethal ground attacks.

THE DUCKS ARE FLYING HIGH, BUT IS A BCS TITLE STILL OUT OF REACH?

2

3

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP THE ZONE-READ TRIPLE OPTION Like a featherweight boxer who never stops moving, the Ducks offense is a blur. Its immaculate spacing gives QB Marcus Mariota endless options on zone-read runs like this one.

1

2

1 1 RBs Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson will share a heavy workload behind a veteran O-line, which employs an extra OT more often than any team in the country.

2 This set is

Byron Marshall, who replaces Kenjon Barner (1,767 yards).

Unlike in Ohio State’s hat-on-hat scheme, Oregon linemen attack an area, using movement, tempo and game-plan keys to dictate blocks.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

All-America corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu is a standout on a unit that plays more defenders than anyone. The fluid rotations, akin to hockey shifts, are the engine behind this suffocating D. H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

With a physical offensive line and a punishing RB, you can negate the Ducks’ renowned speed. Witness Stanford’s upset last year, when Stepfan Taylor ran for 161 yards.

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2 If the inside isn’t open, it’s

3 There’s a reason Thomas (5'9",

Mariota time—bad news for the edge LB. Commit to Mariota and he pitches it to RB De’Anthony Thomas (3), sweeping behind him; commit to Black Mamba and the QB’s 4.5 speed kicks in.

11.0 30 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

%

one of the most versatile linemen in the FBS. He excels in space, as seen here, and is powerful enough to win one-on-one blocks straight ahead.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

3

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U 1 First option: an inside run to

3 David Yankey is

structured to create advantageous angles on down blocks, as seen here with the left tackle.

This forces the D to account for an extra gap.

176) scored a TD once every 8.6 offensive touches in 2012 (ninth in FBS, minimum 100 touches).

Oregon works to get him the ball in space. Just watch how often he reaches the wide hash this season.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

@ STANFORD NOV. 7 PS The Ducks have won 9 of the past 11 matchups.

-1

+1

BF Two of CFB’s top-10 O’s and D’s, according to my ratings.

VS. OREGON STATE NOV. 29

PS UO (6-0 TO margin) has 5 straight Civil War W’s.

-16

-20 BF UO’s ppg vs. OSU since ’08: 47.2. The Beavers have my No. 45 D.

With one of the country’s best front sevens and safety Ed Reynolds (6 INTs), Stanford often confuses QBs with a variety of pre-snap looks.

10.2 11 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

If you protect the QB and get your athletes into space, Stanford struggles. Arizona proved it in 2012 by putting up 48 points in Palo Alto.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

@ OREGON STATE OCT. 26

-1.5 PS The Cardinal have won 4 of the past 5.

-10 BF My No. 45 D struggles vs.

SU’s run game.

@ USC NOV. 16

+4 PS Off Oregon, another brutal game for SU.

-5 BF Matt Barkley was 64% of SC’s offense.

OTTO GR EULE JR/GETTY IM AGES

LAST SEASON 11–2 (6–2 SEC WEST)

TEXAS A&M

MR. FOOTBALL IS BACK, AND SO ARE THE PLAYS HE RUNS AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN. HUARD’S HUDDLE

DRAWING UP GUN TRIPS RIGHT 15 ZONE STICK X HITCH

An SEC D-coordinator told me: “I was surprised at how often A&M ran the same plays.” Yes, the Aggies love their 3-by-1 sets, as seen here, because Johnny Manziel can beat the D any number of ways.

TIE

LAST SEASON 12–2 (7–1 SEC EAST)

GEORGIA THE DAWGS WILL TRY TO POUND THEIR WAY TO AN ELUSIVE SEC TITLE.

2

3

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP I-RIGHT 93 ISO

1 1 The first option is the inside-zone run to RB Ben Malena (919 total yards in 2012). As the WRs run their routes, it’s Manziel’s decision to give, keep or drop back for a pass.

2 The speedy six-foot Malcome Kennedy (4.5 40) will be Manziel’s new Ryan Swope, who caught 72 passes in 2012, several of them on this five-yard hitch vs. soft coverage.

3 The third option is

UGa ran the ball nearly 40 times per game in 2012. Why? Because Mark Richt knows that a run-heavy scheme inflicts ample collateral damage: a slowed pass rush and a relaxed secondary.

throwing the hitch/ fade/slant to last year’s leading WR Mike Evans (1,105 yards as a frosh), who at 6'5" can outjump just about any CB in the SEC.

3

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

The Aggies disguised coverages well in 2012. But with the suspensions of experienced DBs Deshazor Everett and Floyd Raven Sr., they’ll be back to basics and base defenses.

@ MISSISSIPPI OCT. 12

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

Their defensive line isn’t the greatest, so if you’re a physical team like LSU or Bama, you can pound them with the run when they lack an eighth defender in the box.

8.9 1.0

-2 PS The Rebels gave up a 10-point 2nd-half lead in 2012.

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

94

-6 PS A&M went 6–0 on road in 2012.

Average margin of victory: 20.3 ppg.

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

1 1 At RB, Georgia platoons Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall with great success. The thick-legged Gurley excels at running behind his pads. The downhill iso play, as seen here, sets the physical tone Richt covets from his offense.

-1 BF The Aggies, with my No. 3 O, score just enough to win.

@ MISSOURI NOV. 30

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

2

-5 BF Manziel averaged 408 total ypg on road in 2012.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

Speed off the edge. What else is new? OLBs Jordan Jenkins (5 sacks as a true frosh) and James DeLoach (6'3", 265) both have the goods to preserve Georgia’s sack-tastic tradition.

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

When they get out of their gaps, they’re not great at recovering. As a result, they give up big plays; in 2012 they allowed 15 40-plus-yard gains (12th most in SEC).

2 This set also allows for a toss sweep, with FB Merritt Hall leading the way in front of Marshall (6.5 ypc in 2012, 15th in FBS, minimum 100 carries), who excels at making plays on the edge in the Bulldogs’ G-scheme.

8.7 1.5 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

3 Overcommit to the run and QB Aaron Murray can burn you deep with a play-action fake. It’s no accident that WR Malcolm Mitchell and TE Arthur Lynch (18.0 ypc in 2012) often get open behind cheating LBs and safeties.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

@ CLEMSON AUG. 31 PS Focused Tigers have FCS game and bye on deck.

-1

-1

BF It’s raining TDs! Two of my top 15 O’s face off.

VS. LSU SEPT. 28 PS LSU hasn’t been a road ’dog since 2011 vs. Bama.

BF Tigers’ No. 2 D makes the difference on the road.

-5 +2

TOM DIPACE

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES

HUARD’S DRAWING UP OPEN TRIPS RIGHT HUDDLE INSIDE ZONE ALERT BUBBLE SCREEN

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

The Head Ball Coach keeps his scheme as simple as any in the SEC. Much like A&M, the Gamecocks make defenses declare their intentions and then choose the path of least resistance.

@ GEORGIA SEPT. 7

-6

TIE

+6

LAST SEASON 11–2 (6–2 SEC EAST)

SOUTH CAROLINA DON’T SLEEP ON THE GAMECOCKS. MORE THAN CLOWNEY AWAITS. POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

PS Cocks have won 3 in a row for the first time ever.

3 2 1 If SC can get a hat on a hat, this inside zone run is the call; sophomore RB Mike Davis’ versatility (5.3 ypc, 8.8 ypr in ’12) makes him an ideal fit for Marcus Lattimore’s old spot.

1

2 Zone-read guru

3 SC will work to get WR Bruce Ellington touches any way it can. This bubble screen forces the D to cover the entire width of the field and opens up shots down the seam later.

Connor Shaw (131 carries, third among SEC QBs) will see action in this scheme, but Spurrier also will play Dylan Thompson in more pass-friendly sets.

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U It’s no secret that DEs Jadeveon Clowney (13 sacks, 23.5 tackles

for loss) and Chaz Sutton (5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss) excel at creating negative plays.

A third-and-long is the last thing a QB wants to face against this D (43 sacks, fifth in FBS).

VS. CLEMSON NOV. 30

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

-6

+5 BF UGa QB Aaron Murray (61% of O) not afraid of SC.

PS Since ’09: SC 25–3 at home, Tigers 8–11 on road.

9.2 2.8

BF Home field aids No. 105 special teams.

%

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M You have to force turnovers and make this defense play a short field. Florida drubbed South Carolina 44-11 last season despite gaining just 183 total yards. None of the Gators’ seven scoring drives was longer than 59 yards.

LAST SEASON 11–2 (5–2 BIG EAST)

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES

LOUISVILLE

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

WITH BRIDGEWATER BACK, A RETURN BCS TRIP IS IN THE CARDS.

@ CONNECTICUT NOV. 8

-9

-2

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP TRIPS RIGHT SCAT RIGHT Y DIG Louisville’s offense is as pro-style as it gets in college football. This play, with varying route depths and plenty of options, is one you’ll see the Manning brothers run often on Sundays.

1

1 The most NFL-ready of any QB

in this class, Teddy Bridgewater (6'3", 196) is masterful with these inside-breaking routes.

His vision and downhill delivery allow the Cards to consistently attack the underbelly of zone D’s.

96

2 The beauty of this play is that

6'3" WR DeVante Parker (18.6 ypc, seventh in FBS, minimum 40 catches) is able to react to the coverage with multiple routes. That’s a hard combo for a CB to defend one-on-one.

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

Corner blitzes. Zone pressure. Man-to-man coverage. Charlie Strong will do it all in hopes of disrupting the opposing QB. Safety Hakeem Smith (6'1", 179) quickly diagnoses plays and covers up for mistakes in the back end.

When they play a QB with a pulse—like Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib, who averaged nearly 11 ypa against the Cards in 2012—their aggressiveness works against them. But they won’t face too many QBs like Nassib this year.

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

PS More upsets (4) than not (2) since ’07.

BF Louisville’s ST (91st in FBS) keep UConn in it.

@ CINCINNATI DEC. 5

2

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

-6

3

3 This play, like so many in the

Cards’ passing game, doesn’t work if the route depth and spacing aren’t exactly right.

The overall attention to detail

by Louisville’s WRs is as good as it gets in college.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

+8 PS Cincy coach Tommy Tuberville is 6–3 vs. top-5 teams.

BF Two of my top 25 O’s put up points, but Cincy is too much at home.

9.4 3.3

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

KEVIN C. COX/GETTY IM AGES

CLEMSON LAST SEASON 11–2 (7–1 ACC ATLANTIC)

LEANER, MEANER TIGERS CLAW BACK TO THE TOP OF THE ACC.

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP BUNCH RIGHT PASS 14 Z ORBIT X GO O-coordinator Chad Morris mixes personnel, formations and shifts at a dizzying pace.

With the RB depth chart in flux, it’s the passing attack—and senior QB Tajh Boyd— that will determine whether the Tigers can surpass their 11 wins from 2012.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

2

Their overall athleticism is the first thing you notice. DE Vic Beasley led the team with eight sacks and didn’t start a single game last season. When the Tigers get to the QB and successfully shoot gaps, they’re able to cover up a lack of size along the front seven.

3 1

H O W YO U B E AT T H E M

1 Dabo Swinney told me that

last season Boyd didn’t become “fat and happy like he did in 2011.” That’s no small thing: A svelter Boyd means more production in the run game (10 rushing TDs in ’12) and smoother execution on play-action passes like this one.

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2 Sammy Watkins, who inherits the No. 1 WR slot from DeAndre Hopkins, will often find himself opposite the formation’s strength.

The result: Watkins (2,255 total yards in his first two seasons) gets more big-play chances but also more safety help.

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

3 The Tigers line allowed

31 sacks in 2012 (90th in FBS), and it would’ve been worse if not for Boyd’s superior pocket presence.

Clemson won’t sniff a BCS game unless the rest of the linemen take a few cues from first-team All-ACC LT Brandon Thomas.

Beasley is a microcosm of the D—extremely athletic but undersized.

He’s 6'3" and only 225. No Tigers starting LB weighs more than 235. You’re not going to find that very often. And you can attack them in the run because of it.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

VS. GEORGIA AUG. 31

VS. FLORIDA STATE OCT. 19

0 +1 PS Tigers D returns 6 starters to UGa’s 3.

-2

+1 BF Top-15 offense hangs with Bulldogs D.

PS The home team has won 6 straight.

BF Boyd threw for 280 ypg at home in 2012.

8.8 1.2

%

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

TOM DIPACE

HUARD’S HUDDLE

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES

DRAWING UP UNBALANCED POD LEFT 22 POWER

The Gators will shift and substitute players a lot, but their offense is really pretty simple. This power play, straight out of the ’80s, is at the core of Will Muschamp’s run-first mindset.

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

@ MIAMI SEPT. 7

-1 3

LAST SEASON 11–2 (7–1 SEC EAST)

FLORIDA THE GATORS ARE CHOMPING AT THE BIT TO GET BACK ON TOP. POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

1

2 1 UF uses an extra lineman to get the D off balance. Mix a fast tempo with differing sets and running lanes open easier (188 rushing ypg in 2012, third in the SEC).

2 What would Tim

Tebow do if he were not a QB? Meet Trey Burton (7.7 yards per touch), a 6'2", 224-pounder who has played RB, WR, FB and QB. Look for him in the slot a lot.

3 LT D.J. Humphries is a freak, but Florida’s power ball requires better overall line play— perhaps from O-line transfers Tyler Moore (Nebraska) and Max Garcia (Maryland).

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U Florida, with shut-down CB Loucheiz Purifoy (six feet, 190),

plays more man-to-man than anyone. The problem for O’s: UF also has DT Dominique Easley and DE Dante Fowler Jr. (combined 16.5 tackles for loss in 2012) to pressure the QB.

PS SEC was 5–1 vs. ACC in 2012 regular season.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

VS. GEORGIA ( JACKSONVILLE ) NOV. 2

-4 BF Canes return 19 starters and my No. 25 scoring O.

risk of playing man-to-man: Because the corners’ backs are turned to the QB, the big play is always looming, both through the air and on the ground.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

@ CLEMSON OCT. 19

0

DRAWING UP MOTION TO DOUBLE WING RIGHT WAGGLE 15 DOUBLE POST Z DEEP OVER

+2

FSU’s offensive identity is in flux with new QB Jameis Winston. Expect Jimbo Fisher to stick with what he knows best: heavy play-action passes, like this one, off zone runs.

PS FSU has lost the last 5 games in Death Valley.

3

2

2 Kelvin Benjamin (6'5", 238) headlines FSU’s WR corps.

His ability to stretch the field (16.5 ypc in 2012) enables FSU to use plenty of seven-man protections, which will help ease Winston’s transition.

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

DT Timmy Jernigan (8 tackles for loss), LB Christian Jones (95 tackles) and CB Lamarcus Joyner (sub-4.4 speed) are the core of FSU’s “rebuilding” D. Different year, different players, same talent for Fisher.

It’s difficult to line up and beat the Noles when they’re zoned in. You have to hope they beat themselves. They did that vs. NC State in 2012, playing a lackadaisical fourth quarter and giving up 14 unanswered points to lose by one.

BF EJ Manuel (61% of FSU O in ’12) had 482 total yards vs. Tigers.

VS. MIAMI NOV. 2

1

TOMASSO DERO SA/A P IM AGES

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M You have to take shots against Florida. That’s the inherent

ANOTHER YEAR, ANOTHER DOMINANT D IN TALLAHASSEE.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

BF Florida’s No. 43 offense will get chances vs. young D.

%

FLORIDA STATE 1 Fisher’s system is complex and limitless, but he’ll likely keep it simple for the freshman Winston.

Fewer check-with-me run/pass calls and more straightforward plays will be key for Winston’s early confidence.

PS Florida had won 18 of 21, then it dropped the last 2.

9.0 1.7

LAST SEASON 12–2 (7–1 ACC ATLANTIC)

HUARD’S HUDDLE

-4

+2

-10

-4

3 Speedy WR Rashad Greene

(six feet, 175, 4.42 40) caught an FSU-high 57 balls in 2012, many of them on intermediate routes like this one. Winston would be wise to zero in on the sure-handed Greene often.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

PS Seminoles looking for 4th straight win in series.

BF My No. 25 O falters late vs. the Seminoles’ No. 12 D.

8.9 1.3

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

08/19/2013 ESPN The Magazine

101

LAST SEASON 10–3 (6–2 SEC WEST)

LSU

THE TIGERS WILL RUN THEIR BACKS RAGGED TRYING TO CHASE DOWN THE TIDE. HUARD’S HUDDLE

DRAWING UP I RIGHT 48 TOSS POWER

“There’s no easier game plan to install,” an FBS D-coordinator told me about prepping for LSU. Yes, Les Miles keeps it simple, relying on bruising RBs to wear down foes—but it still isn’t easy to stop.

NOTRE DAME LAST SEASON 12–1

LARGE AND IN CHARGE? WE’LL SEE ABOUT THAT.

3 2

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP SOLO RIGHT SLOT ZB RIGHT SCAT SMASH H MIDDLE

1 1 Talent outweighs deception, and even without suspended Jeremy Hill, the two-RB attack of Kenny Hilliard and Alfred Blue (6.8 ypc) gives Miles the versatility he covets.

2 To keep D’s from crowding the line, QB Zach Mettenberger (201 passing ypg, last in SEC, minimum 300 attempts) will need to sharpen his play-action passes and shots downfield.

3 LSU’s weak link?

The O-line. The crew coming back has only 49 combined starts, and it really wasn’t that good last season (32 sacks allowed, 93rd in the FBS).

O-coordinator Chuck Martin will call plenty of zone-stretch runs, but in the red zone and on third down, his go-to is this empty set that lets QB Tommy Rees attack favorable matchups.

1 2

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

LSU plays fast, pressuring up front and running man-press coverage. LB Lamin Barrow can hit (104 tackles) and drop back, giving Miles flexibility and toughness.

VS. TCU ( ARLINGTON ) AUG. 31

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

Force turnovers and three-and-outs against their O. Make them defend short fields with little rest and put a few of the seven new starters in a situation to blow assignments.

9.0 1.4

-3 PS Miles is 11–2 vs.

Top 25 in regular season since ’11.

-4 PS Split the last 10, but the home team has won 6 of 8.

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

102

BF Two top-10 D’s, but LSU’s ST are also No. 2.

VS. FLORIDA OCT. 12

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

%

-4

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

-5 BF Florida’s No. 3 D keeps it close, but the No. 43 O outpaces UF.

3

1 The Irish are unique: They like

two TEs when running their empty set. It keeps LBs on the field and gives their athletes, like TE Troy Niklas (6'7", 260), a chance to make a big play down the seam.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

D-linemen Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix III—all 629 pounds of them—are space eaters. This is a huge advantage because ND can usually stop the run without committing an eighth guy to the box.

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

Alabama showed everyone the recipe: Force the Irish into playing with a single high safety by running the ball effectively, then put your athletes in space on the perimeter, where ND is often overmatched.

2 A Notre Dame coach told me that WR DaVaris Daniels (15.8 ypc in 2012) is “much better than he’s getting credit for.” At 6'2", he uses his frame to get position on this corner route, which is one of Rees’ best throws.

7.9 0.3 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

3 Brian Kelly has always adapted to his QB’s strengths. With Everett Golson suspended for the season, Kelly will put Rees (14 INTs in 2011) in sets that help him minimize mistakes and convert third downs and red-zone opportunities.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

VS. OKLAHOMA SEPT. 28 PS ND won 5 of 6 home games by a TD or less in 2012.

-4

-1

BF Former QB Landry Jones was 69% of OU’s O in 2012.

VS. USC OCT. 19 PS Irish are 0–5 against Trojans in South Bend since 2003.

-3

-3

BF ND’s No. 16 D allowed only 10 TDs last regular season.

JOHN MERSITS/CAL SPORT MEDIA/AP IM AGES

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

VS. NOTRE DAME SEPT. 7

-3 HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP DOUBLE LEFT STACK, F RIGHT SPRINT RIGHT PASS

+10

O-coordinator Al Borges catered to Denard “Shoelace” Robinson’s dual-threat ability. Expect him to build a new identity around one of the country’s best LTs and most talented WRs.

PS ’Dog has won 7 of 9; last 4 have been decided

by TD or less.

TIE

LAST SEASON 8–5 (6–2 BIG TEN LEGENDS)

1

MICHIGAN POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

VS. OHIO STATE NOV. 30

2

+6

3

1 At 6'8", 309, LT Taylor Lewan

SHOELACE IS GONE, BUT MICHIGAN’S OFFENSE IS READY FOR THE NEXT STEP.

2 Senior WR Jeremy Gallon

is a QB security blanket. In addition to securing the blind side, Lewan often creates a wall play-side for his QB to run around or cleans up on the back side, which he does here.

(team-high 829 yards in ’12) can run effective screens from multiple positions. Here, he crosses the field to overload with senior Drew Dileo and sophomore Amara Darboh.

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

UM is a machine against conventional sets, like most Big Ten offenses, lining up in a 4-3 and stopping you man-on-man. Top LB Jake Ryan tore his ACL this spring, but the team will be in the mix. Let’s face it, the conference is weak.

Spread them out! The Wolverines struggle against unconventional sets, anything that puts playmakers out on the perimeter, where they can’t tackle speed in space. That’s why they need to get so much pressure up front.

HUARD’S HUDDLE

QB Devin Gardner the starting job in Week 9, the junior proved he can throw on the run to either side. That will allow a young O-line to mature with play pass, screens and movement.

%

VS. OKLAHOMA (DALLAS ) OCT. 12

PS Sooners coming off ND and TCU. Situational edge to UT.

LAST SEASON 9–4 (5–4 BIG 12)

TEXAS HORNS GO UP TEMPO TO BUCK RECENT DRY SPELL IN AUSTIN. POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

CARLOS OSORIO/AP I M AGES

2

2 QB David Ash can tuck and run but can also turn to a bubble screen here if the box gets crowded.

That’s why fly sweeps and play-action are vital to loosening the defense.

3 If the run has

success, the D’s commitment will give Jaxon Shipley (737 yards) space on the perimeter and Mike Davis room to operate downfield opposite Shipley.

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U The secondary will fly all over out of the 4-3 because

UT can clamp down on the run now that athletic LB Jordan Hicks (hip) and stud DE Jackson Jeffcoat (pectoral) are fully healthy. They were hyped for a reason in 2012.

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

TIE

Johnathan Gray, Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron is unrivaled in the Big 12. Here, the RB needs the C and OG to extend their combo blocks to the LBs.

BF OSU’s No. 7 D dominates and gives its No. 18 O a short field.

5.9 0

-3

1 The RB trio of

PS OSU, which has won 8 of last 9, comes off Illinois and Indiana.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES

New OC Major Applewhite will speed things up to about 75 plays a game, but the Horns will still pound D’s. “Everything starts with our run game,” he says, “and in particular our inside-zone run.”

1

+13

3 When coach Brady Hoke gave

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

DRAWING UP DOUBLE WING RIGHT 32 ZONE ALERT BUBBLE WEAK

3

BF Top-10 Irish O shines vs. UM’s No. 31 D under Big House lights.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

@ TCU OCT. 26

-1.5

-5 BF I rank UT’s D 20th and give it the edge vs. a new QB.

-1

PS Horns haven’t lost 2 straight since 1958-59.

BF No. 14 ST give Horns a boost in Fort Worth.

9.6 5.2

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M Get them confused by moving guys around and disguising

looks. Against West Virginia and Oklahoma, they struggled with tempo. That and they couldn’t tackle my 3-year-old son. The result? They gave up 111 combined points.

08/19/2013 ESPN The Magazine

105

LAST SEASON 8–5 (5–4 BIG 12)

OKLAHOMA STATE

IT’S NO STRETCH TO SAY THE COWBOYS COULD LAND ATOP THE BIG 12 STANDINGS.

HUARD’S HUDDLE

DRAWING UP TRIPS RIGHT OPEN 3 JET ALL GO X COMEBACK ALERT BUBBLE SCREEN RIGHT

The Cowboys remind me of an All-Star power pitcher who can turn to a devastating changeup. The vertical passing game is their go-to, but they’re a nightmare to defend when they combine it with the option of a potent screen underneath.

1 3

2

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

Turnovers. The Cowboys don’t want you to go 17 plays and eat up 10 minutes of clock.

They led the country in takeaways (44) in ’11 but couldn’t capitalize last year. Watch for senior CB Justin Gilbert to turn his team-high nine pass breakups into INTs in ’13.

H O W YO U B E AT T H E M

1 Junior WR Josh Stewart (5'10", 185) has proven to be remarkably durable and elusive in the open field (101 catches, 1,210 yards in ’12). On this play, he has the option of an inside seam over the middle but would prefer the screen if the corner’s cushion allows.

106

2 The soft spot between the safeties and behind the LBs is where senior WR Tracy Moore (6'2", 215) is particularly adept at finding holes in the coverage. As one Big 12 head coach says, “Very few teams attack vertically as well as Oklahoma State.”

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

3 OSU has allowed just 73

sacks since ’07, third best in the FBS, thanks to a mix of tempos and screens.

Without RB Joseph Randle (Dallas Cowboys), the QB combo of senior Clint Chelf and soph J.W. Walsh must make quick reads and smart decisions on the fly.

Just connect on your home run opportunities.

They’ll give you man-to-man on the outside, so you can throw the deep ball with success. They want you to take the risks, but it’s painful to watch. They gave up 92 points combined to Oklahoma and Baylor last season.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

@ TEXAS NOV. 16

+4

VS. OKLAHOMA DEC. 7

-6

-7

+7 PS Cowboys’ 3rd road game in 4 weeks.

BF Home UT has edge in battle of top-20 D’s.

PS OSU was 6–0 as home favorite last season.

BF Cowboys’ No. 5 ST the difference at home.

9.7 5

%

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

T IM WARNER/CAL SPORT MEDIA/AP IM AGES

LAST SEASON 7–6 (4–5 BIG 12)

OKLAHOMA LAST SEASON 10–3 (8–1 BIG 12)

BOB STOOPS’ NEW QB HAD BETTER BE READY SOONER THAN LATER.

TCU

THE D IS ALWAYS LOCKDOWN, BUT IT’S THE OFFENSE THAT’LL GET FORT WORTH HOPPING. HUARD’S HUDDLE

DRAWING UP MOTION TO SPREAD RIGHT SMOKE SCREEN RIGHT

TCU hasn’t had an offensive tackle drafted in the first three rounds since 1962. Coach Gary Patterson knows you have to make up for holes up front with lots of misdirection. A smart, decisive QB helps too.

3

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP WEAK I RIGHT FAKE BELLY FULLBACK SNEAK All is well in Norman, Sooners fans, even without Landry Jones, the Big 12’s career passing leader. The fast tempo and innovative quick-strike pass plays aren’t going anywhere.

1 1 QB Casey Pachall knows when to pull the trigger (10/1 TD/INT in four starts before DWI arrest).

“They really missed his ability to get the ball out on time,” says a Big 12 coach.

3

1

2 TCU allowed 34 sacks from 2009 to ’11; it gave up 29 in ’12. RBs Aaron Green (Nebraska transfer) and Waymon James (ACL in ’12) will keep the D honest but pass protect here.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

2

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U 1 Senior FB Trey Millard will be a

stud. He’s as adept at cutting runs upfield (6.0 ypc in ’12) on zone plays as he is cutting the thigh pads of would-be tacklers. Millard will also see his pass-catching role expanded, as shown here.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

OU likes to force TOs by attacking the QB and dropping athletes like CB Aaron Colvin (4 INTs) into coverage. When the D gets its mojo going early, it’s tough to re-establish your game plan.

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

Dominate the line! In 2012 OU couldn’t stop the run or get the QB (25 sacks; 40 in ’11). Tavon Austin rushed for 344; K-State and ND rolled ’em. Then A&M’s spread beat the dog mess out of them.

108

2 A decoy on this play, rough-

3 OU starts five upperclassmen on

running senior RB Damien Williams is still a workhorse (946 rushing yards, 320 receiving in ’12).

Creative playcalling and misdirection will create even more chances for him to find open field.

8.8 1.3 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

%

its O-line. So don’t be surprised if the team averages more than 200 rushing yards per game (a first since ’04), especially with a mobile QB in junior Blake Bell, a threat OU hasn’t had in a long, long time.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

VS. TCU OCT. 5 PS Sooners are 37–2 hosting Big 12 foes since 2002.

-7

-3

BF The numbers favor OU and its No. 11 defense.

VS. TEXAS ( DALLAS ) OCT. 12 PS Schedule tips to UT; OU coming off 2 Top 25 teams.

+3

+5

BF My No. 14 ST unit swings this game in Horns’ favor.

Patterson is like Nick Saban: He knows your strengths and weaknesses and how to hide his. His 4-2-5 scheme allows for many deceiving looks.

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

Patience. It’s okay to gain four yards. You must stay balanced and wait for slipups. Abandon the run and you’re done.

9.0 1.7 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

2

%

3 Brandon Carter

(5'11") is Pachall’s first option on the screen as 6'3" Cam White (13.5 ypc) and 6'4" LaDarius Brown (5 TDs) occupy the opposite side of the field.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

VS. LSU ( ARLINGTON ) AUG. 31

+3 PS LSU has won 10 straight openers, 6 vs. BCS.

+4 BF TCU’s No. 35 O can’t hang with LSU’s No. 2 D.

@ OKLAHOMA OCT. 5

+7 PS TCU was 4–1 on Big 12 road; OU is 81–5 at home since ’99.

+3 BF Sooners’ No. 5 O and No. 11 D add up to my No. 10 team.

MI CHAEL PRENGLER/CAL SPORT MEDIA/AP IM AGES

LAST SEASON 9–5 (6–3 PAC-12 SOUTH)

INTRIGUE IS BRUIN AGAIN IN WESTWOOD. HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP SPREAD LEFT 3 JET Z SNAG When coach Jim Mora arrived last year, he stated that UCLA wouldn’t lack an offensive identity. O-coordinator Noel Mazzone designs sets to attack vulnerabilities in the D. This play is simple and allows the Bruins’ speed to shine.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

UCLA disguises looks, then brings pressure from all over. The Bruins have a ton of speed, and senior LB Anthony Barr (No. 11), a former RB/TE, made the flip look way too easy with 13.5 sacks in his first season on D. He’s a bona fide top-15 pick.

3 1

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

@ ARIZONA NOV. 9

VS. WASHINGTON NOV. 15

-3

+1.5

-4

+8 PS Home team has won 7 of the past 9.

BF Zona’s No. 11 O burns UCLA’s No. 56 D.

PS Huskies have lost 7 straight at Rose Bowl.

BF UCLA’s No. 53 offense returns 7.

2 H OW YO U B E AT T H E M 1 The “snag” or “spot” route relies on a WR to fight through contact and sense open space. Senior Shaquelle Evans proved last season (team-high 60 catches and 877 yards) that he can do both. Sophs Jordan Payton and Devin Fuller must do the same.

110

2 WRs must be precise with splits and hit their spots for soph QB Brett Hundley (3,740 yards, 29 TDs in ’12). He is gifted and tough, but a Pac-12 coach says Hundley needs to see the whole field in his progressions to take the next step this season.

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

3 UCLA was 11 ppg and 90

ypg better in ’12 than ’11.

The presence of departed RB Johnathan Franklin (1,734 yards) helped this play work. Without him keeping D’s honest, the O-line, led by LG Xavier Su’a-Filo, must improve (52 sacks, 118th in FBS).

When they disrupt the QB, the pass D is great.

But when they don’t, they struggle (No. 85 in FBS). So get the ball out quick and let your WRs go to work. Look at Oregon State: Its two WRs killed UCLA for 325 yards combined, mostly on screens.

5.4 0

%

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

RIC TAPIA/ICON S MI

LAST SEASON 10–4 (7–1 BIG TEN LEGENDS)

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES

NEBRASKA

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

@ MICHIGAN NOV. 9

THE HUSKERS RESORT TO A FAMILIAR OPTION.

-7

+4

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP TRIO RIGHT FAKE 23 POWER DOUBLE POST

PS UNL’s 4th visit to UM since 1911; Huskers lost by 28 in 2011.

“Multiple” is the buzzword in Lincoln. Even as teams catch on to the power-read option, few have QBs who take advantage of its variety like senior Taylor Martinez.

BF Martinez, 60% of O in 2012, returns to face UM’s No. 31 D.

@ PSU NOV. 23 3

0

2

+1

1 1 Martinez trusts his speed (1,019 yards rushing in ’12) and holds the ball in the back’s belly longer than most. RB Ameer Abdullah, who gained 1,137 yards as a sophomore, is a big enough threat to sell the fake.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

2 The top three WRs return, including junior Kenny Bell (team-high 17.3 ypc). All of them set up play-action well and are able blockers. Their speed gets them past LBs and DBs expecting to be blocked.

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

3 From zone read to power to

PS PSU 20–3 in home finales; UNL off 3 Big Ten foes.

speed to triple, the option has long symbolized Huskers football.

Martinez and Abdullah get the spotlight, but OG Spencer Long is a huge (6'4", 315) asset with the constant pulling required.

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

Coach Bo Pelini, an NFL guy, likes a matchup zone. DBs play zone with man principles, which confuses young QBs. Senior CBs Ciante Evans and Andrew Green and junior SS Corey Cooper return from the nation’s No. 4 pass D.

HUARD’S HUDDLE

The run will be a real problem again (see UW’s 539 rushing yards in the Big Ten title game).

Playing zone, the Huskers can’t commit guys to the box, but they have no studs up front (just 2 career sacks among D-line starters).

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

BF No. 15 D wins at home over Nebraska’s No. 16 O.

9.3 3.3

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES

DRAWING UP WING RIGHT FAKE BUBBLE Z DOUBLE PASS

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

The main reason Boise is 84–8 since ’06: Coach Chris Petersen focuses on personnel strengths (not his personal ego) and embraces gadget plays like this one.

@ WASHINGTON AUG. 31

@ BYU OCT. 25

-13 LAST SEASON 11–2 (7–1 MWC)

BOISE STATE

CAN THE BRONCOS BUST THE BCS ONE FINAL TIME? POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

112

-8

+4.5 +6

3

2

1

1 This WR runs a tunnel screen, while the O-line and soph RB Jay Ajayi sell hard an outside-stretch zone run. Lose focus and Boise fools you into thinking all is covered.

2 Matt Miller, who caught a Boise record 128 passes his first two years, plays decoy here.

This will give Miller and QB Joe Southwick more room to operate later.

3 Boise can’t break

a team’s will at the line. Instead, the “gotcha” moment when the TE sells screen, then breaks for the pass, is what keeps D-coordinators up at night.

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U The Broncos don’t have four horses up front, so you’ll see

plenty of blitzes. DE Demarcus Lawrence isn’t big (6'3", 244) but can make plays against the run or penetrate (9.5 sacks in ’12). Soft comp keeps them fresh.

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

PS UW returns 18 starters to Boise’s 9.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

BF My metrics say Boise ranks No. 17 overall, UW No. 50.

PS The Cougars are 38–5 in Provo since 2006.

BF Boise’s No. 13 D stifles BYU’s No. 61 O on the road.

10.4 17

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M Just four starters return, and they must replace CB Jamar Taylor, one of their all-time best. So if the front seven doesn’t get to the QB, you can exploit them for big plays, as the back end isn’t good enough to hold up one-on-one.

G REG MCWILLIAMS/ICON S MI

LAST SEASON 10–3 (5–3 BIG TEN LEGENDS)

NORTHWESTERN THE CATS ARE BEATING THE ODDS BY WINNING WITH TWO QBS.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

@ IOWA OCT. 26

-4

+1

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP SPREAD RIGHT 2 JET ALL GO No coach does more with less than Pat Fitzgerald, who has NU on a five-bowl run. He knows that college hash marks allow spread and spacing, and 85 scholarships enable a great equalizer: tempo.

PS ’Dog has won 6 of last 8; NU has won 4 of last 5.

BF NU’s No. 60 D scares no one; nor does Iowa’s No. 55 O.

VS. MICHIGAN STATE NOV. 23 3 1 On plays like this, pass-first

2 Even in a four-wide set, RB Venric Mark (1,366 rushing yards, 12 TDs) forces teams to use extra men in the box. That allows more big plays downfield.

If all else fails, Mark is a capable receiver as a checkdown.

QB Trevor Siemian will often sub for run threat Kain Colter (894 rushing yards). In the last seven games of 2012, NU called 85% runs with Colter and 63% passes with Siemian.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

0

2

1

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

This is a very disciplined 4-3. They’re small up front, so they slant to get pressure. DE Tyler Scott doesn’t jump off the tape, but he tied for the Big Ten lead with nine sacks because he never lets up. That describes this defense.

The teams they lost to in 2012 had better athletes: Penn State, Michigan and Nebraska.

They’re having more success in recruiting, but right now the margin of error isn’t fair. It just takes one big play and NU can’t catch up.

HUARD’S HUDDLE

BEAVERS HAVE TEETH. THEY JUST NEED TO FIND AN ARM. POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

114

of Markus Wheaton, junior Brandin Cooks (17.2 ypc in ’12) will be the main target underneath. He has the body control and burst to take a D over the top.

3 Balance is a must

in the pro-style, and soph RB Storm Woods (940 rushing yards, 313 receiving) will keep D’s honest on the ground and as a safety valve on this play.

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U By shutting down the run. Their corners and safeties are

fantastic in support. CB Rashaad Reynolds was the No. 2 tackler (75), and FS Ryan Murphy was No. 3 (67). You just don’t see that a lot from a secondary. DE Scott Crichton (9 sacks) is able to fly to the QB because of how much help they commit to the box.

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

PS Visitor has won 9 of last 12, but NU is 7–1 in home finales.

BF No. 6 D gives MSU edge over NU’s No. 26 offense.

7.2 0.1

%

-4.5 -3

1

2 With the departure

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

@ UTAH SEPT. 14

3 1 QBs Cody Vaz and Sean Mannion will battle for time and Riley’s trust. The read on this play is deep-to-short, and the quarterback must learn to check down.

scheme says WRs are adept at breaking off routes based on cushion and technique. NU’s top WRs (Tony Jones, Christian Jones, Rashad Lawrence) return and will be even cagier to cover.

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

LAST SEASON 9–4 (6–3 PAC-12 NORTH)

2

3 A coach who has faced this

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES

DRAWING UP STACK DOUBLE WING LEFT SCAT X DIG RIGHT

While programs across the Pac-12 have adopted the nohuddle, don’t expect coach Mike Riley to deviate from a pro-style system that’s produced seven bowls in 10 seasons.

OREGON STATE

+2

PS Beavers return 15 starters from 21-7 win in ’12.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

BF Balanced OSU—40th O, 45th D, 36th ST—trumps Utes’ No. 29 D.

@ ARIZONA STATE NOV. 16

-1

+4 PS Beavers off bye, but home team has won 11 of last 13.

BF OSU’s No. 40 O squeaks out a win vs. my No. 35 D.

8.3 0.2

%

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M Hit them with play-action. They struggled with it a lot last

year. WRs were able to get behind their LBs and capitalize over the middle. OSU allowed 26 passes of 25-plus, ninth in the Pac-12. Big plays were a constant problem; the LBs just seemed too focused on the run, and that would create openings down the field.

AJ MAST/ICON S MI

LAST SEASON 8–5 (4–5 BIG 12)

USC

LAST SEASON 7–6 (5–4 PAC-12 SOUTH)

THE TROJANS FELL HARD, BUT NOW THE ELEMENT OF SURPRISE IS ON THEIR SIDE.

BAYLOR

THE BEARS COULD HAVE A POINT-AMINUTE OFFENSE—AND DEFENSE.

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP RED 20-40 Coach Art Briles cuts back on formations and personnel groups so the Bears can move at his preferred pace: fast. What’s left of the playbook is what you see, a set that allows them to call it at the line.

3

2

HUARD’S HUDDLE DRAWING UP BLUE RIGHT F SHORT 200 JET X SLANT SPACING Coach Lane Kiffin knows exactly how he wants his offense to operate: “It’s critical to make our passes within five yards of the line of scrimmage work.” Translation: Get the ball to Marqise Lee, the nation’s best wideout, early and often. Because once the quick game falls into place, the deep ball can follow.

1 1 Lache Seastrunk usually runs from this set, but here he is an outlet for new QB Bryce Petty. If Seastrunk keeps pace (139 ypg in last six), a Heisman run isn’t a stretch.

2 Petty and his WRs must be in sync with so many route adjustments. Senior Tevin Reese (18 ypc in ’12) will be the main target now that Terrance Williams is gone.

3 If D’s can’t

pressure Petty, they’ll be in trouble.

LG Cyril Richardson weighs 335 pounds and is a force in man protections. He swallows D-line stunts and twists.

1 2 3 1 Lee (1,721 yards in ’12) will draw

even more attention with Robert Woods (Bills) gone, so the goal is to get him the ball on smoke screens, hitches and slants (seen here) before he has to fight off combo- or double-coverage.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

Clancy Pendergast (new hire from Cal) uses a 5-2 and QB spies to stop the spread. USC likes to shoot an LB through the gap, and DEs Leonard Williams and Morgan Breslin totaled 21 sacks in ’12.

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

I still say you spread them out. Pendergast was hired to counter it, but their LBs haven’t tackled well or contained. Watch Arizona, Oregon and UCLA tapes; their spreads killed USC.

116

2 This play spaces the field and

3 With Wittek under center, senior

allows sophomore QB Max Wittek to make quick progression reads.

Over the past decade, several future pros have been able to execute this scheme at a young age because of its simplicity.

10.1 2.2 FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

ESPN The Magazine 08/19/2013

%

RB Silas Redd will have a heavier workload both on the ground and as a pass catcher. The O-line has 85 combined starts, so it should be better than last season at giving the QB and RB room to operate.

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

@ NOTRE DAME OCT. 19 PS Kiffin has lost 2 of 3 vs. ND; the Irish are off a bye.

+3

+3

BF I rank USC No. 14, ND No. 19, but Irish have home field.

@ OREGON STATE NOV. 1 PS USC off Utah; OSU off tough one vs.

Stanford.

0

-2

BF Trojans’ No. 20 O too much for the Beavers’ No. 45 D.

POLLACK GETS DEFENSIVE

UNLOCKING KEY GAMES

H O W T H E Y B E AT Y O U

Phil Steele uses his Vegas mindset to predict where lines will open, while Brian Fremeau says where spreads should be based purely on his metrics.

Baylor is at its best creating turnovers so the offense can get on the field. The Bears do a good job of disguising looks on the back end and forcing QBs to make bad decisions.

H O W Y O U B E AT T H E M

Run your plays. Baylor’s D was No. 119 in ’12, so there’s more than one way: Get athletes in space (the LBs can’t cover the field) or just pound the ball (the D-line is undersized).

6.6 0

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS’ AVERAGE PROJECTED WINS

%

@ KANSAS STATE OCT. 12

+3 PS Bears lost last 4 at KSU by average of 27 points.

+9 BF A No. 89 D dooms Baylor vs. K-State’s No. 24 O.

VS. TEXAS TECH ( ARLINGTON ) NOV. 16

-6 PS Baylor won last 2; tired Tech plays 7th straight week.

-1 BF Bears’ top-ranked O slashes Tech’s No. 81 D.

FBO’S CHANCE OF GOING UNDEFEATED

RI CH SCHULTZ/GETTY IM AGES

THE HIGHS, LOWS & IN-BETWEENS OF THE ESPN POWER RANKINGS

RANKINGS RECEIVED FROM ESPN VOTERS 1 2

3 4

5

6

Q HIGHEST Q LOWEST Q OTHER

7

For weekly in-season updates on how our ESPN experts cast their votes, direct the Internet browser of your choice to ESPN.com and search: High Low Power.

8 9

NOT RANKED

10

25

11

24

12 13

23

14

15

22 16

21 17

18

19

20