FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE NFL POWER RANKINGS, GO TO ESPN.COM/NFL/POWERRANKINGS NOW AND EVERY TUESDAY THROUGHOUT THE SEASON.
AND THE SERVER SAYS...
This time of year, everyone has a theory—about the players who’ll matter the most, the games that’ll go to the wire and the team that’ll exit New Jersey with the Lombardi trophy. You can have your hunches; we’ll take analytics every time. So we turned to some of the NFL’s smartest statheads. Football Outsiders mined its 22 seasons of data to forecast each team’s offensive and defensive performance. Pro-Football Reference used its Approximate Value metric to highlight a non-QB MVP, while our resident Football Scientist, KC Joyner, studied the bad decisions of each signal-caller. Finally, Pro Football Focus performed its algorithmic gymnastics to predict the scores of all 256 regular-season games and our playoff bracket. The only theory left to test: Does champagne taste sweeter at Mile High or the Meadowlands?
THE MAG ’S PLAYOFF PICKS
+
GLOSSARY WIN LOSS
DVOA (DEFENSE-ADJUSTED VALUE OVER AVERAGE)
Breaks down the season play-by-play, comparing success to the league average based on variables including down, distance, location on the field, current score gap, quarter and opponent quality.
AV (APPROXIMATE VALUE)
34-31
The approximate measure of a player’s value, calculated by using metrics like games started, Pro Bowls, All-Pros and other stats when applicable.
BDR (BAD DECISION RATE)
24-14
The rate at which a QB makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the D.
28-24
INT CONVERSION RATE
The rate at which a quarterback’s INT opportunities—passes that reach the catching frame of a defender—are actually picked off.
37-20
41-28
BENGALS
31-24
BRONCOS
ADJUSTED LINE YARDS
23-21
Measures runs at specific distances to calculate blocking rather than what the RB does in the open field. Adjusted for situation and opponent.
SEAHAWKS
PACKERS
ADJUSTED GAMES LOST
20-13
24-3
45-10
Measures the cost of injuries, of missed games and of games in which players were unable to play to their full potential.
19-13
POWER SUCCESS RATE
The percentage of runs on third or fourth down, with two yards or less to go, that achieve a first down/TD.
TEXANS
RAVENS
DOLPHINS
CHIEFS
FALCONS
BUCS
FR OM LEFT: TO M D IPACE/AP IMAGES; RIC TAPIA/AP IMAGES; JOHN FR OSCHAUER/AP IMAGES; ROWAN STASZKI EWI C Z/PA PHOTOS/ LANDOV; GREG TR OTT/AP IMAGES; ROB TRIN GALI; HELMET ILLUSTRATIO N S BY HY PERAKT
49ERS
REDSKINS
09/02/2013 ESPN The Magazine
77
PREVIEW
A NEW YEAR Entering his first full season as Miami’s starting LT, Jonathan Martin will get an early test vs. the Browns’ big-money pass rusher, Paul 9/8 Kruger (NFL-high 12 sacks after Week 9 in 2012).
12/29
12
MIAMI
2 15 12/
23VS. 2 0
NE
VS.
NY
J
9/1
3
@ PIT
VS. BAL
33-20
F
. BU
10
/20
VS
-14
29 17-6
10/
13-10
11/11
10/31
PATRIOTS
IA
@
@ CIN
24-17
@ HOU
30-12
12/1
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
7-1 11.5
. NO
VS. PIT
34-14 11/3
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
VS. MIA
26-16 10/27
NY
J
1 13-
0
10/
20
10/
2
@
13
VS
-16
EN
11/
29
S. D
V 15 27- 4
CAR
9/29
27-AT2L0
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
10/6
15 12/
23@ 20 M
16 26- 2 7
VS. CIN
NEW ENGLAND
2
9–7 45.1%
VS. CLE
17
@ TB
NE
AFC EAST
9/2
28-13
WIN LOSS
11/
@
WIN LOSS
2
-17 25VS. TB
12/8
AR
45-
OVER/UNDER WINS
78
S. C
@ BUF
VS
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
18
2
27-24
38-. B2U1F
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
11/
VS
4 2 . SD -32
9/8
12/29
@
34
40-1 7.5
OVER/UNDER WINS
11/
Cameron Wake has easily been Miami’s best player since 2010. His 15-sack, 18-AV performance a season ago ranked among the most productive in football, and only J.J. Watt recorded more QB hits.
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
V 19 27- 4
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
Tannehill (2.1% BDR in 2012) is one of the NFL’s most risk-averse deep passers; he threw only one stretch vertical INT. That should continue with a capable No. 1 WR (Wallace) alongside Brian Hartline.
20
VEGAS VIBE
@ NYJ
0
2.1
% RYAN TANNEHILL
12/1
14.4
7.2
WR Mike Wallace must recover from a poor 2012 (78th in DVOA; first and eighth in 2010 and 2011, respectively), but the offense’s big question is whether the line, minus All-Pro Jake Long, can keep Ryan Tannehill upright. Dion Jordan joins a D-line that must be stellar again (42 sacks, seventh in NFL) to ease in CBs Brent Grimes (free agent signee) and Richard Marshall (returning from injury).
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
10–6 57.9%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
31-18
27 6
CAMERON WAKE
24-22
STARTING DL AVG.
DEFENSE
12/8
OFFENSE
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
9/30
by KC Joyner
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
@
BAD DECISION RATE
by Pro-Football Reference
@
-17
IND
24-N1O7
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
41 -
5
2
UNIT PROJECTIONS
6 1 6 - BAL
@
B
9/1
14 16V-S. ATL
SURPRISE! THE PATRIOTS GET CAUGHT IN MIAMI’S WAKE.
A NEW YEAR This is a different offense with a healthy Rob Gronkowski. Since 2010, Tom Brady has thrown an NFL-high 58 TDs targeting TEs (23 more than /22 12 the next QB).
23
9/2
DOLPHINS
@ CLE
VS. N
2 3-2UF @
24-15
30-7YJ
/22
10/6
AFC EAST
SUPER BOWL? WORRY ABOUT MAKING THE PLAYOFFS FIRST.
UNIT PROJECTIONS
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
by Pro-Football Reference
OFFENSE
STARTING DL AVG.
DEFENSE
2 20 Tom Brady can overcome the loss of 75% of his pass-catching production from 2012, but his numbers will surely take a hit if TE Rob Gronkowski misses serious time. According to DVOA, Gronkowski’s three seasons all rank among the 10 best for tight ends since 1991. Further development by DE Chandler Jones (6 sacks as a rookie) will go a long way toward improving the D’s consistency.
7.2 0
BAD DECISION RATE by KC Joyner
VINCE WILFORK
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
14.6
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
20
Wilfork is the biggest reason NE’s D-line allowed the league’s fourth-lowest rate of adjusted line yards on runs up the middle. Runs ended by Wilfork himself in 2012 averaged a scant 1.3 ypc.
0.9%
TOM BRADY
With four sub-1% BDR seasons since 2005 (0.9% in 2012), Brady is the NFL’s most pristine passer. But last season he was also the luckiest: No other QB threw 400-plus passes without a bad decision INT.
FROM TOP: TOM DIPACE; JIM DAVIS/THE BOSTON GLOBE/GETTY IMAGES
PREVIEW
9/8
12/29 12
VS. TB
@M
NE
-3
AR
37 @ -13 C
VS. OAK
@ ATL
34-7
12/8
31-20
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
60-1 6.5
9/29
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
VS. MIA
12/1
21 13
4–12 18%
@
DEFENSE
31-T1E3N
by Football Outsiders
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
31-18
A new coach, a talented rookie QB and an explosive run game (138.6 ypg in 2012, sixth in NFL) spell—maybe, just maybe— the beginning of a competent offense in Buffalo. New defensive coordinator Mike Pettine brings schematic diversity, but he needs $100 million DE Mario Williams and the rest of the well-paid, much-hyped defensive line to hold up their end of the “bargain” after a lackluster 2012 (24th in adjusted line yards).
UNIT PROJECTIONS
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
2
THE PLAYOFFS ARE STILL A YEAR AWAY FOR THE NEW-LOOK BILLS.
-18 28VS. BUF
12/
15
9/2
BILLS
45
@
2 VS. C
BUFFALO
OFFENSE
4 3-1 LE
38-33
30-IA7
10/7
AFC EAST
/22
A NEW YEAR Darrelle Revis, now a Buc, makes a return trip to N.J. Over 2011 and ’12, the Jets D had a minus-8 TD-to-INT differential with Revis on the 9/1 2 field, a plus-13 without him.
2.1%
KEVIN KOLB
27-24
38-21
17
VS. NO
20-14
48-3
11/3
VS. NE
@ NE
34-
VS.
CA
9/1
5
31
3
31-28
10/3
@ CLE
DEFENSE
25 5 NON-QB MVP
J
VS
11/
28
NY
-21
. CI
N
by Pro-Football Reference
1
@ NO
20-13 10/27
MIA
14 29- 2 0
@
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
OFFENSE
13
@
VS.
19 31- 7
PIT
11/3
by Football Outsiders
10/
JA
C
14-
@ TB
)
100-1 6.5
24-18
9/29
VS
ONTO
24-23
VS. ATL (TOR
12/1
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
VS. KC
20-. B1A9L
34-7
10/
JETS
IT CAN’T GET ANY WORSE THAN LAST YEAR ... RIGHT?
2
5–11 22.4%
3
WIN LOSS
20
NEW YORK
UNIT PROJECTIONS
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
10-
10/
10/27
R
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
A NEW YEAR 11/ 10 Doug Marrone called running plays 42.7 times per game at Syracuse (most in Big East). That power O won’t fly vs. Pittsburgh, which allowed 3.7 ypc in 2012 (fourth in NFL).
10 13-
WIN LOSS
15
.M
13
. PI
@ CIN
NE
AFC EAST
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
@
-17
VS
20 11/
20
VS.
9/2
12/
3 1 - BUF 19
9/8
-18 28@ NYJ
12/8
@
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
OVER/UNDER WINS
80
L
VS
BA
2
2 3-2 IA
@
22
9.4
If Kolb (2.1% BDR in 2012) wins the job over EJ Manuel, it’ll be because coach Doug Marrone trusts his decisionmaking. Before he got hurt, Kolb was on pace for a career-low 1.6% INT rate.
12/29
12/
0
24
by KC Joyner
6.2
-7
BAD DECISION RATE
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
C.J. SPILLER
11/
by Pro-Football Reference
STARTING RB AVG.
35
Even with the NFL’s ninth-worst passing game, Buffalo’s offense was only slightly below average in 2012 (minus-4.3% DVOA), which is a credit to C.J. Spiller, who led all qualified RBs in yards per touch (6.8) in 2012.
NON-QB MVP
T
OVER/UNDER WINS
10/
BAD DECISION RATE by KC Joyner
How will the return of a Rex Ryan–quality defense help the offense? Well, from 2009 to ’11, when the Jets defense never ranked outside of our top five, a Sanchez-led attack finished 22nd, 16th and 21st in DVOA. It won’t quite rise to that level of mediocrity, but RB Chris Ivory, 5.1 ypc in three seasons with the Saints, should help the offense rebound ever so slightly from its putrid No. 30 DVOA rank in 2012.
Since 2011, the 23-year-old Muhammad Wilkerson has racked up 8 sacks, 73 tackles and 18 AV points—numbers that compare with those of Mario Williams and Dwight Freeney at that age.
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
MARK SANCHEZ %
3.1
STARTING MUHAMMAD DL AVG. WILKERSON 7.2 0
9.0
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
20
Sanchez’s 3.1% BDR was awful, but his luck was even worse—54.5% of his potential INTs resulted in picks, third worst in the NFL. Sanchez is unlucky again: He faces my toughest collection of pass D’s in 2013.
FROM TOP: DO UG BENZ/RE UTERS; RICH K ANE/ICON SMI
PREVIEW A NEW YEAR Cincy averaged only 3.1 yards per play with multiple TEs vs. Pittsburgh in 2012, its worst vs. an AFC North foe. First-round TE Tyler Eifert (13.7 ypc 12/29 at Notre Dame in 2012) should help with that. /22 VS. BAL 12
9/8 AFC NORTH
CINCINNATI
12/
IT
VS. NE
24-17
@ SD
37-31
12/1
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
20-1 8.5
F
10
/13
-21 10
17 11/
WIN LOSS
BA
-13
L
@ MIA
VS. NYJ
13-10
T
10/
48-3
10/31
DE
21 24 - 2 0
@
by Pro-Football Reference
OFFENSE
STARTING DL AVG.
DEFENSE
10/27
BAD DECISION RATE
0
12
BALTIMORE
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
With an AV of 18, Atkins’ 2012 campaign was among the 25 greatest seasons ever by a DT. His 12.5 sacks helped the Bengals D-line rack up an 8.7% adjusted sack rate, tied for the league lead.
@ DEN
@
28
VS.
-0
E
ET
16@ 13 D
VS. MIN
. GB
-20
VS
NY J
-7
24
FROM TOP: MICHAEL KEATING/AP IMAGES; TOM DIPACE
11/
A 335-pound run-stuffing monstrosity, Haloti Ngata led all Ravens defenders in AV each of the past three seasons. In fact, no DT has racked up more tackles (186) or AV points (76) than Ngata since 2008.
30-1 8.5
OVER/UNDER WINS VS.
20
A Super Bowl MVP will do nothing to quell Flacco’s reputation as an unnecessary risk taker. His BDR has ranked in the top 15 only twice in five NFL seasons, and in 2012 Flacco was one of only eight QBs with a BDR of 3% or above.
VEGAS VIBE
35
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
3.0%
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
23
14.9
JOE FLACCO
9–7 48.8%
VS. PIT
0
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
11/28
7.2
HALOTI NGATA
30-12
STARTING DL AVG.
12/8
OFFENSE
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
9/29
by KC Joyner
@
BAD DECISION RATE
by Pro-Football Reference
20-B1U9F
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
2
12/
9/2
16
CL
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
28-0
UNIT PROJECTIONS
Ray Rice is the only player to have 250 rushes and 50 catches every year since ’09. But don’t worry about his stamina. Research shows that only carries wear down a back, not receptions, and Rice’s 257 rushes ranked 14th in 2012. Massive personnel turnover on defense—departed players made 59% of plays in 2012— needed to happen after a rare mediocre season (19th in DVOA).
23-10
34-CI1N3
A NEW YEAR Joe Flacco, the NFL’s highest-volume deep passer (218 20-plus-yard attempts since 2010), faces ex-teammate Ed Reed, who has 7 INTs on such throws in the 9/1 5 same span.
17 19V-S. HOU
PRIMED FOR A REPEAT? ONLY IF FLACCO SHELVES HIS RISKY THROWS.
6 16
6 1 6 - . NE
9/5
2.5%
ANDY DALTON
An unusual amount of tipped passes and receiver mistakes led to Dalton’s 38 INTs/ near INTs in 2012 (tied for third most in AFC). All Dalton (2.5% BDR in 2012) needs is better luck for his pick total (16 in 2012) to decrease significantly.
20
VS
RAVENS DEFENSE
/22
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
15.2
12/29 AFC NORTH
by KC Joyner
GENO ATKINS
7.2
The Bengals defense can beat you straight up—its 37 sacks when rushing four or fewer led the NFL. Or the D can beat you with the blitz, allowing just 4.4 yards per pass (sixth in NFL) when bringing six or more. Giving Andy Dalton a solid second target across from WR A.J. Green—maybe Mohamed Sanu (4 TDs in 2012)—would be the biggest help in surpassing our offensive projection.
BU
11/
28
E
@
. CL
VS -7 42
28
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
14 12
OVER/UNDER WINS
@
UNIT PROJECTIONS
@ MIA
19@ 13 P
VS. IND
11–5 55.9%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
9/29
@
31-21
NFL’S BEST FRONT FOUR COULD MAKE THESE CATS KINGS OF THE NORTH.
38-C2LE6
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
2
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
10/6
15
9/2
-13 26VS. GB
12/8
BENGALS
IT
V
10/6
2 S. M
6
33-20
7-7IN
9/1
38 VS. -17 P
@
2 7 CHI -24
11/
17
VS. CIN
28-13 11/10
@ CLE
23-20
PIT
20 30- 0
@
13
@ CHI
10/
23-17
34-13
10/
2
WIN LOSS
11/3
09/02/2013 ESPN The Magazine
83
PREVIEW 12/29
VS. TEN
9/1
38
6
WIN LOSS
@ -17 CI
AFC NORTH
N
BROWNS
@ NYJ
20-17
18-1 9
L
27
PITTSBURGH
STEELERS
CENTER-QB EXCHANGE IS IN GOOD HANDS. NOW, ABOUT THE RECEIVERS …
DEFENSE
BA
9/1
5
WIN LOSS
-0
L
5–11 21.2%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
60-1 6
OVER/UNDER WINS
20
PIT
-24
11/
ELITE
by KC Joyner
GOOD AVERAGE BAD
<1.5% 2% 2.5% 3%
TERRIBLE >3.5%
84
2.4
%
BEN ROETHLISBERGER
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
O-coordinator Todd Haley is back, and so is the more accurate and nimble Big Ben: In 2012 Roethlisberger (2.4% BDR) tied for eighth-lowest INT/near INT rate (5%), and his 5 TDs on scrambles tied for the NFL lead.
10
24
BAD DECISION RATE
9/29
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
34
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
28
@
VS.
0
MAURKICE POUNCEY
11.8
VS. MIA
@
VS
7.4
24-15
31-P6IT
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
VS. JAC
STARTING OL AVG.
12/1
by Pro-Football Reference
With three Pro Bowls and 37 AV points in his first three seasons, Maurkice Pouncey is the undisputed best center in football. The only concern: a leg injury that left him hobbled in the second half of 2012.
9/8
23@ NYJ
26-16
NON-QB MVP
12/29
38.-C2IN6
19 2
-14
3.7
2
OFFENSE
A NEW YEAR Ray Horton’s Arizona D sacked Tom Brady four times with four or fewer pass rushers in 2012, the most by any team last season. The Browns will have the horses off the edge to /22 12 best that.
BRANDON WEEDEN %
9/2
by Football Outsiders
The NFL’s oldest defense finally gets younger with first-round OLB Jarvis Jones (14.5 sacks at Georgia in 2012) and third-year CB Cortez Allen (12th in adjusted yards per pass). A youthful O-line will need time to jell, which puts the onus on Ben Roethlisberger to stay healthy (eight missed games since 2010) and find a big-play target to replace Mike Wallace. No returning receiver had more than 800 yards last season.
by KC Joyner
Weeden’s 3.7% BDR (second to last in NFL), 7.5% vertical INT rate (37th) and 11.8% stretch vertical INT rate (second to last) will be problematic in Norv Turner’s system, which puts an emphasis on the deep-passing game.
-10 30@ MIN
UNIT PROJECTIONS
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
20
10/3
AFC NORTH
BAD DECISION RATE
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
VS. BUF
11/10
0
31-28
A NEW YEAR From 2009 to 2012, 11/3 former Steelers (and current Dolphins) WR Mike Wallace led Pittsburgh with 36 catches of 30-plus yards. The next-highest total from a Steelers WR in that span was nine.
/13
10/
34-14
10.7
7.4
VS
6
JOE THOMAS
3 1 - . DET 29
13-
by Pro-Football Reference
STARTING OL AVG.
I
10-3
K
CH
@ NE
OA
The NFL’s most reliable left tackle in 2012, Thomas went 73.6 snaps for every missed block and was the biggest reason a young Browns O-line posted the league’s 12th-best pass-protection numbers.
NON-QB MVP
15
17
@
VS. BUF
28 11
12/
11/
DEFENSE
. BA
2
30
11/
VS
2 7 . DET -13
OFFENSE
-20
E
VS
CL
@ 24 34- 4
OVER/UNDER WINS
OLBs Paul Kruger (9 sacks, 21 hurries in 2012) and first-rounder Barkevious Mingo (28 QB pressures at LSU last year, tied for second most in the SEC) give new D-coordinator Ray Horton the speed off the edge he had last season at Arizona, which was seventh in adjusted sack rate. The main issue in Cleveland: The WR corps lacks experience, and Brandon Weeden (35th in Total QBR) remains a project at best.
by Football Outsiders
20
VS. MIA @ BAL
28-0
11/28
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
SPEEDY SACKERS GIVE D HOPE, BUT WEEDEN DRAGS DOWN OFFENSE.
UNIT PROJECTIONS
10/
24-22
N(
9–7 33.2%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
9/29
20L-O3NDON)
@ MI
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
10/13
CIN
19VS. 1 3
12/
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
2
24 31V-S. CHI
12/8
CLEVELAND
9/2
15
@
28VS. 2 7
VS.
@ NE
-37 5 2 GB
41 - 3 4
31-C6LE
28-13
/22
12/8
12
9/8
@
4 2 CIN -7
11/
17
VS. BAL
23-20 11/3
@ KC
24-14
GB
0 27-
@
10/
20
10/27
FROM TOP: TOM DIPACE; GEORGE GOJKOVICH/GETTY IMAGES
A NEW YEAR It’s time for a new plan vs. Tom Brady. Houston was the only D to send extra rushers at Brady more than half the time in 2012, and 9/9 he threw for 640 yards and 7 TDs in two wins.
TENNESSEE
15 I
34-18 11/10
@ STL
30-9 11/3
10/6
VS. KC
27-21
@ STL
20-9
10/6
3
10/
31 30 NON-QB MVP by Pro-Football Reference
13
AR
14
DON)
24-10
10 24 10/
20
10/27
SF
24 31-
10/
20
The fate of the offense depends on RB Maurice Jones-Drew’s health (only 414 yards in six games in 2012) and WR Cecil Shorts’ early development (17.8 ypc, second in NFL), especially with fellow WR Justin Blackmon (DUI) suspended for four weeks. Head coach Gus Bradley likely will need another year to fully develop his defense, which had the worst adjusted sack rate in 2012 and replaces three starting DBs.
A wide-necked tackling machine stuck in football purgatory, Paul Posluszny has recorded 452 solo tackles since 2008. The only NFLers with more? Pro Bowlers Chad Greenway and Patrick Willis.
10/
/14
10
12/
11/
VS.
VS. JAC
DEFENSE
A
VS. SEA
24-23
SD
@
-20
10/6
U
HO
37VS. 2 0
15 12/
27 VS. -23
31-21
12/8
@ CIN
23
100-1 OVER/UNDER WINS 6.5
9/29
VS.
THIS PAGE, FROM TO P: GEOR GE BRIDGES/MCT/GETTY IM AGES; TOM DIPACE ; O PPOSITE PAGE, FROM TO P: TOM DIPAC E; MICHAEL HICKEY/GETTY IM AGES
OFFENSE
VEGAS VIBE
VS
UNIT PROJECTIONS by Football Outsiders
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
2 7 . IND -20
34-18
VS. SF (LON
300-1? TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL? OUR ADVICE: STAY FAR, FAR AWAY.
U
31-N1Y3J
Following up a stellar decade as Peyton Manning’s most productive WR, all Wayne has done the past two seasons is collect 29.3% of the Colts’ adjusted catch yards, the ninth-best rate in football.
The high-percentage passing that Luck used at Stanford hasn’t yet translated to the NFL. His 57 INTs/near INTs (last in NFL) and 3% BDR reveal a rookie forcing things. A familiar face at OC will help Luck assess risk vs. reward.
@ TEN
SD
JAGUARS
5
2
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
20
3.0
VS.
I
11/10
9/2
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
0
9.4
ANDREW LUCK %
K
86
11/3
10
/20
Can new O-linemen RT Gosder Cherilus and LG Donald Thomas help keep Andrew Luck upright? The QB was knocked down after a pass 83 times as a rookie, 20 more than any other QB last season. The defense will need more than its nice offseason signings—S LaRon Landry and first-round DE Bjoern Werner—to improve much on our No. 27 pass D and No. 32 run unit from 2012.
7.2
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
OA
11/10
33-14
7
17 26
REGGIE WAYNE
9/1
33 @ -17 HO
2
38-14
@ HOU
1 29-
STARTING WR AVG.
DEFENSE
@ PIT
6–10 26.6%
11/
VS. STL
N
OFFENSE
VS. HOU
41 - 3 4
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
@ 21 30- 4
2
14
DE
by KC Joyner
35-32
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
@ IND
I
11/
11/
VS.
BAD DECISION RATE
by Pro-Football Reference
12/1
AR
@ 14 21- 4
30-1 OVER/UNDER WINS 8.5
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
17
. AR
-23
JACKSONVILLE
9/8
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
49-24
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
UNIT PROJECTIONS
11/
VS
AFC SOUTH
12/29
19 31V-S. SD
@
VS. TEN
12/1
49-24
VEGAS VIBE
THE COLTS DON’T HAVE THE HORSES TO HANG WITH HOUSTON. 9/29
30-J2AC8
8–8 37.4%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
2 7 TEN -20
2
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
@
WIN LOSS
COLTS
9/2
-13 3 4@ SF
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
-17
23@ JAC
INDIANAPOLIS
IA
@
12
WIN LOSS
SE
AFC SOUTH
20
-3
5
JAKE LOCKER
@
23 VS. -17 M
55-7
VS. OAK
VS. J
@ DEN
-17 2 7 KC
12/8
/2
A NEW YEAR The Titans’ biggest additions—guards Andy Levitre and Warmack—face the NFL’s No. 2 betweenthe-tackles D in 2012 (3.6 ypc). /22
26
Locker had the NFL’s best BDR in 2012 (0.6%). That is not a misprint; he made only two miscues on 314 attempts. Don’t expect a huge regression: The Titans face the easiest collection of pass D’s, according to my metrics.
0.6%
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
24
/13
10 11/3
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
13
@ SF
19-13
L
. ST
-7
VS
34
11/10
0
@
@ JAC
BU
IND
16-10
12/5
VS.
15
27@ 23
12/
33-14
0
9/29
16-10
2 10/
WIN LOSS
3
VS. IND
9.4
6.2
U
@ @ ARI
KC
14 24 -
K
HO
12
9/1
300-1 5
OVER/UNDER WINS
24
-10
CHRIS JOHNSON
11/
3
by Pro-Football Reference
STARTING RB AVG.
24 -
C
17
. OA
9/8
31-17
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
@
JA
11/
NON-QB MVP
by KC Joyner
27-1A7C
VEGAS VIBE
26-16
VS.
24
38
VS
Though he’s no longer CJ2K, Johnson is more than serviceable. His 2,290 rushing yards since 2011 ranks sixth; only three others broke more runs of 15-plus yards during that span.
BAD DECISION RATE
A NEW YEAR Pep Hamilton, Andrew Luck’s Stanford OC, takes over Indy’s offense. With Luck in 2011, the Cardinal ran 40 times per game, compared with Indy’s 27.5 in 12/29 2012. That’s a good strategy vs. the Jags (No. 30 run D). 2
4–12 18.7%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
@ CLE
26 28
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
VS
DEFENSE
12/1
12-1 10
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
OVER/UNDER WINS
11/
Forget Adrian Peterson: Watt’s 20 AV points made him MVP material in 2012. His season—20.5 sacks (sixth highest ever), 18 batted-down balls (tops in NFL)—was the best ever by a DE so young (23).
UNIT PROJECTIONS OFFENSE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
24 -
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
In 2012 Schaub (1.8% BDR) threw only 9.2% of his passes 20-plus yards (32nd in NFL). That should change with the rookie Hopkins (22.6 stretch vertical ypa at Clemson in 2012) lining up opposite Andre Johnson.
20
Good news for RB Chris Johnson: His offensive line, which ranked as our second-worst run-blocking unit, should only improve with better health, depth and the addition of first-round G Chance Warmack (6'2", 317). But any run-based offense also requires a good defense, and the Titans return nine starters from a bad one (32nd in ppg; 29th vs. the run, according to DVOA). New SS Bernard Pollard can help only so much.
by Football Outsiders
VEGAS VIBE
VS. NE
0
1.8%
MATT SCHAUB
12/1
16.7
7.2
J.J. Watt understandably stole the headlines in 2012 with one of the best seasons we’ve tracked by a D-lineman. But don’t sleep on the Texans secondary (our No. 4 pass D in 2012), especially after the team signed S Ed Reed. On offense, improving the right side of the line and getting results from rookie WR DeAndre Hopkins (1,405 yards, 18 TDs for Clemson in 2012) are critical.
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
30-12
13 10
J.J. WATT
K
30-. I2ND8
STARTING DL AVG.
DEFENSE
OA
5
2
OFFENSE
7@ 6
9/2
by KC Joyner
7 3-1 EN
9/1
-0 58@ SEA
by Pro-Football Reference
TITANS 9/29
by Football Outsiders
11–5 CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS 60%
VS. KC
@
2 VS. T
ANOTHER TALL ORDER FOR THE TITANS’ WILTING D.
VS
BAD DECISION RATE
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
21-. 1SE4A
NON-QB MVP
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
2
UNIT PROJECTIONS
17 19@- BAL
WITH WATT LIGHTING UP QBS, IT’S SUPER BOWL OR BUST IN HOUSTON.
34-27
27-IN1D7
/22
F
EN
9/2
TEXANS
12
AFC SOUTH
15
3 VS. D
5
12/
33 VS. -17 T
14-
@ SD
@ TE
12/29
16-10
HOUSTON
1 5-2EN
9/1
VS. HOU
12
25-20
35-3N2
10/6
AFC SOUTH
/22
12/5
12/29
A NEW YEAR RT Luke Joeckel, the No. 2 overall pick, will get his first big test against the Rams’ Chris Long, who had 11.5 sacks when lining up vs. the offense’s right 9/8 side (fifth in NFL).
3 7 DEN -6
PREVIEW
WIN LOSS
BAD DECISION RATE by KC Joyner
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
1.7%
BLAINE GABBERT
STARTING PAUL LB AVG. POSLUSZNY 7.6 0
8.4
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
20
Give Gabbert some credit: He cut his BDR from 3.7% to 1.7% in 2012, and my metrics suggest he’ll continue the downward trend this season. The next step is to increase his 5.9 ypa; only two QBs were worse in 2012.
09/02/2013 ESPN The Magazine
87
PREVIEW 12/29
1 5-2OU H
9/1
30 @ -27 NY
5
WIN LOSS
G
@
V S . WA S
@ SD
31-17
28-16
A NEW YEAR Peyton Manning completed an 11/10 NFL-best 77% of passes to slot WRs in 2012 (minimum 50 attempts). That explains the signing of ex-Pat Wes Welker, who had an NFL-high 1,033 receiving yards from the slot.
29
STARTING WR AVG.
-17
20 10/
10/27
0
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
12
KANSAS CITY
A NEW YEAR Alex Smith, who’s taking over Andy Reid’s West Coast offense, had the No. 2 Total QBR on throws 9/8 10 yards or fewer in 2012. The Titans allowed the highest completion 9/1 percentage in 5 @ JAC the NFL on such VS. throws. DA
2317 L
15
24 @ -17 O
12/
9/1
AK
@ WA S
@ TEN
60-1 7
OVER/UNDER WINS S. S D
28 34 11/
17
@
10
2
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
VEGAS VIBE
11/
The No. 15 pick in 2005, Derrick Johnson grew into his role as one of the NFL’s premier run-stuffing LBs. The eight-year vet’s three best seasons have been his last three (103 tackles per year).
This is what a game manager looks like? Top four in short pass ypa, vertical ypa, stretch vertical ypa and, oh yeah, overall ypa. Smith (1.8% BDR in 2012) was off target on only 14% of his throws last season (sixth best in NFL).
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
V 10 24 - 4
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
20
31-14
10.9
1.8%
ALEX SMITH
10–6 46.0%
VS. DEN
0
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
12/1
7.6
DERRICK JOHNSON
12/8
STARTING LB AVG.
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
9/29
OFFENSE
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
VS
by KC Joyner
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
17-. 1N6YG
BAD DECISION RATE
by Pro-Football Reference
88
@
-27 30@ PHI
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
Only Arizona made a bigger upgrade at QB, but Dwayne Bowe is the only reliable pass catcher for Alex Smith (unless, of course, you count RB Jamaal Charles, whom Andy Reid is hyping as Brian Westbrook 2.0). A wealth of talent returns on all three levels of the D, but this is still a unit that gave up the fifth-most passes of 25-plus yards despite being dead last in opponent pass attempts.
34-27
14-1SD0
24-20
UNIT PROJECTIONS
23 32
In 2012 Manning registered a career-low 1.6% BDR (fifth best in NFL), a 4.3% INT/near INT rate (second best in NFL) and a 68.6% completion rate (second best of his career). Noodle arm? What noodle arm?
20
The NFL’s most prolific pass catcher over the past eight seasons, Welker (average of 1,462 yards per season since 2011) will stand out even next to fellow 1,000-yard WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker.
VS
A TEAM LONG ON POTENTIAL COULD BE POTENT BEFORE LONG.
DEFENSE
-17 2 7 . IND
PEYTON MANNING
9
CHIEFS
/22
1.6%
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
15.2
12/29 AFC WEST
by KC Joyner
WES WELKER
7.2
Denver is down to its third center, but with Peyton Manning throwing to the NFL’s top WRs, the O isn’t a concern. The D (our No. 5 in 2012) should regress after fielding the best third-down unit since the ’91 Saints. Our data shows that elite third-down units tend to decline the next year. The D will miss Elvis Dumervil (37.5 sacks since 2009) and won’t likely stay as healthy (11th in adjusted games lost).
10/
2
17
-12
IND
OFFENSE
DEFENSE
BAD DECISION RATE
10/6
VS
11/
11/
. KC
by Pro-Football Reference
3 21
.
3 7 JAC -6
NE
@ 15 27- 4
34
VS
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
27-21
5-1 11.5
OVER/UNDER WINS
UNIT PROJECTIONS
/13
@ DAL
17-14
@ KC
12/1
24-20
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
THE SHERIFF IS BACK IN TOWN, AND SO ARE SUPER BOWL EXPECTATIONS.
13
55-7
VS. TEN
V
13–3 CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS 65.9%
BRONCOS
9/29
45S-.2PH4I
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
10/6
SD
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
K
40VS. 1 4
3
12/8
DENVER
-23 49VS. OAK
12/
12
9/2
AFC WEST
. OA
@
VS. BAL
@
VS
3
23-10
30-O2AK2
/22
-14
12
9/5
DE
-12
VS.
N @ BUF
24-18 11/3
VS. CLE
24-14
HO
U
14 24 10/
20
WIN LOSS
10/27
FROM TO P: PAU L JASIE NSKI/AP IMAGES; SPORT PICS
PREVIEW A NEW YEAR Rookie RT D.J. Fluker and newly signed LT Max Starks will have their hands full with J.J. Watt, who led the NFL with 20.5 sacks in 2012. Philip Rivers was sacked once 9/9 every 11.9 drop-backs in 2012 (32nd 9/1 in NFL).
OAKLAND
20 10/
38-14
11/10
Durable (49 straight starts) and a playmaker (311 tackles since 2010, 17th in the NFL), Burnett, the ex-Dolphins LB, is exactly what this porous Raiders defense needs (29th in DVOA in 2012).
10/
14
by Pro-Football Reference
WIN LOSS
11/3
BAD DECISION RATE
SAN DIEGO
CHARGERS
12
/22
3
@
15 KC
24 VS. -17
12/
@ NYJ
12/8
31-20
200-1 5.5
9/29
VEGAS VIBE
VS. N
Look past Rivers’ shoddy throwing motion on deep balls: It was his 1.9% INT rate on short passes (fifth worst in NFL)—and 2.3% BDR—that hurt SD in 2012. Did I mention the Bolts are switching to a short-passing attack?
TE
20
24
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
4–12 15.8%
-21
90
2.3%
PHILIP RIVERS
C
OVER/UNDER WINS
11.4
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
5
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
11/
by KC Joyner
0
7 VS - 6
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
30
BAD DECISION RATE
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
6.3
ERIC WEDDLE
9/1
. JA
S
@ DAL
by Pro-Football Reference
STARTING DB AVG.
11/28
NON-QB MVP
Weddle makes headlines for his pass coverage (12 INTs, 31 passes defended since 2010), but he’s at his best vs. the run. His 59% stop rate on rush plays was fourth among all qualified DBs last season.
@ IND
VS
VS
20 22
31-17
30-. D2E2N
34.-W2A4S
DEFENSE
* PROJECTED BDR, DUE TO LACK OF 2012 STATS 9/8
42-24
OFFENSE
20
3
by Football Outsiders
This offensive line was a mess last season (8.9% adjusted sack rate, last in NFL). RB Ryan Mathews has missed 10 games in three seasons and didn’t give defenses much to worry about last year (3.8 ypc, 1 TD). Massive NT Cam Thomas and ILBs Donald Butler and Manti T’eo will make it tough to run on the Bolts. Of course, with a patchwork secondary, aside from All-Pro safety Eric Weddle, third and long won’t look so scary to QBs.
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
-23 49@ DEN
UNIT PROJECTIONS
0
9/2
RIVERS WILL NEED A JOLT TO GET THESE CHARGERS PLAYOFF-READY.
4 8-2 D
9.3
7.6
2.0
12/29
AFC WEST
KEVIN BURNETT
Two seasons ago, a 480-yard game— % * at home in Green Bay vs. a banged-up Detroit secondary—got Flynn a MATT multimillion-dollar deal. Two pit stops FLYNN later, his luck strikes again: He faces my third-easiest collection of pass D’s.
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
by KC Joyner
STARTING LB AVG.
10/6
D
. IN
2
31-17
32 17 NON-QB MVP
-20
VS
11/
23
KC
@ 10 24 - 4
17
@ WA S
DEFENSE
C JA
10 24 -
@
VS. DEN
10/6
@ OAK
20-13
50-1 7.5
OVER/UNDER WINS
MIA
by Football Outsiders
VS. SD
EN
V S . N YG
28-27
VS. CIN
37-31
12/1
VEGAS VIBE
Carrying $49 million in dead money, GM Reggie McKenzie overhauled the Raiders roster with 12 new starters—nine on defense alone. The result: an offense devoid of any weapons— the oft-overhyped Darren McFadden was dead last in DVOA among starting RBs in 2012—and a defense that will be hard-pressed to surpass last season’s 25 sacks (31st in NFL) and 19 forced turnovers (26th).
UNIT PROJECTIONS OFFENSE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
11/
9/29
VS
5–11 CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS 27.2%
42 -32
ANOTHER WASTED YEAR. LET THE COUNTDOWN TO CLOWNEY BEGIN …
24.-D2AL0
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
2
40 @ -1 4 D
12/
12
9/2
19 31@- TEN
12/8
RAIDERS
HI
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
@
AFC WEST
20-13
3 VS. O
5
38 WIN LOSS
11/
17
@
HO
-10
VS.
U @ N YG
34-0 11/10
VS. PHI
17-13 11/3
PIT
13-
13
27@ 21 P
10/
VS. HOU
VS.
KC
4 8-2 AK
25-20
14-1K0C
@
/22
-14
12
28
12/29
6 27
A NEW YEAR Oakland lost four of its top five D-linemen in terms of snaps played. The newbies won’t stand a chance against the Skins’ No. 1 rushing O (169 ypg in 2012).
10/
FROM TO P: KIRBY LEE/IMAGE OF SPORT/USA TODAY SPORTS; RIC TAPIA/ICON SMI
PREVIEW 9/9
12/29
12/
19@ 14 G
12/
27 @ -1 0 A
TL
31-14
VS. KC
@ DAL
13-9
12/8
/20
VS
3 1 - . CHI 14
F
10
25
Alfred Morris was a total shock in 2012. The sixth-rounder became only the third rookie to rush for at least 1,600 yards and 13 TDs. Only Adrian Peterson had more 10-plus-yard runs than Morris’ 44.
@
2 7 PHI -24
11/
17
@
17-P3HI VS.
17-13
VS. NYG
3 @W
9/1
23 @ -17 K
28
VS. SD
31-27
38-14
11/7
15 GB
VS. DEN
17-14
10/
13
VS
.
1 3 - WA S 9
2
VS. MIN
38-23 11/3
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
@ DET
34-29 10/27
PH
I
22 24 - 2 0
@
10/
10/6
12/
27VS. 1 9
@ CHI
19-17
G
11/
10
NO
COWBOYS
A THIRD STRAIGHT 8–8 SEASON WON’T SIT WELL IN THE OWNER’S BOX.
9/29
@
24-2SD0
NY
@ 17 24 - 4
30-1 OVER/UNDER WINS 8.5
DALLAS
2
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
A NEW YEAR DeMarcus Ware, right DE in Dallas’ new 4-3, will be tested by Washington’s option. The Redskins ran seven options for 73 yards and a TD to the right side of the Cowboys D in 2012.
/27
NFC EAST
9/2
-28 52VS. STL
VS. OAK
11/28
VEGAS VIBE
42-24
8–8 CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS 43.5%
-19
-16
A NEW YEAR RG3 was contacted on 10 71 rushes in 2012 (second most among QBs). The Eagles levied six 11/3 of those hits, holding RG3 to five option rushing yards in Week 16, when he wore a brace, as he will all season.
@ MIN
C
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
11/
N
5
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
@
DE
9/8
12/29
23
9/29
S. S
RG3 was both good and a little lucky. His overall BDR (1.2%) tied for third, and his vertical BDR (0.8%) was a league low. But he also benefited from only 22.7% of his potential INTs being picked off (lowest in NFL).
20
20-1 8
OVER/UNDER WINS
11/
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
V 12 13-
0
1.2
% ROBERT GRIFFIN III
@
13.0
6.2
RG3’s secret: He can be a pocket QB if the ACL injury hurts his mobility. In 2012 he was more efficient under center than in the pistol or shotgun. The defense returns OLB Brian Orakpo (28.5 sacks from 2009 to ’11; torn pectoral in 2012) to a strong front seven. But the re-signing of DeAngelo Hall (81st out of 87 CBs in adjusted yards per pass allowed) spells bad news for the back end.
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
34-O2AK4
4 8
10–6 48.3%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
by KC Joyner
ALFRED MORRIS
2
STARTING RB AVG.
7 5-1 AS
V
OFFENSE
DEFENSE
BAD DECISION RATE
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
V S . N YG
by Pro-Football Reference
12/1
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
31-7
UNIT PROJECTIONS
/22
B
-3 30S. DET
KNEE BRACE IN TOW, RG3 IS BACK TO FINISH WHAT HE STARTED.
12
5
9/2
REDSKINS
12/9
9/1
VS. PHI
@
15
WASHINGTON
92
7 5-1 AL
41 - 0
24-N1YG4
3 VS. D
NFC EAST
WIN LOSS
22
10/13
WIN LOSS
UNIT PROJECTIONS
NON-QB MVP
BAD DECISION RATE
by Football Outsiders
by Pro-Football Reference
by KC Joyner
OFFENSE
STARTING DL AVG.
DEFENSE
16 29 Without a stable running game, QB Tony Romo will lean too heavily on WR Dez Bryant (12 TDs in 2012, third among pass catchers) and TE Jason Witten (110 catches, fifth in NFL). The real problem: Monte Kiffin’s defensive scheme— the same one that couldn’t stop the Pac-12 read-options last season—will face RG3, then Chip Kelly’s mystery Eagles offense in back-to-back weeks twice.
7.2 0
DEMARCUS WARE
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
12.2
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
20
DeMarcus Ware leads all edge rushers with 46.5 sacks since 2010. His 32 career forced fumbles are a byproduct of that pressure. It helps that he hasn’t missed a game in his eight-year career.
2.4%
TONY ROMO
The Cowboys would be wise to let Romo (2.4% BDR in 2012) take more chances downfield, based on his above-average vertical BDR and a maturing deep threat in Bryant (6 catches of 40-plus yards, second in NFL).
FROM TOP: BRAD MILLS/USA TODAY SPORTS; TOM DIPACE
PREVIEW A NEW YEAR Are you ready for Chip Kelly’s speed offense, which averaged a play every 20.9 seconds at Oregon from 2009 to 2012? The NFL’s 9/9 fastest O (Patriots) was four seconds slower 9/ than Kelly’s Ducks.
12/29 12
NFC EAST
/22
IN
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
9/8
17-13
24-14
@ DAL
S
D
30 VS. -27 D
15 12/
EA
31-23
10/6
VS. PHI I
CH @
-26
33
34-31 10/27
27-12
VS. DET
@ N YG
31-23
TB
17-13
34-31
13
10/
@
30
-23
12/8
by Football Outsiders
OFFENSE
DEFENSE
18 14 NON-QB MVP by Pro-Football Reference
10
@ SD
2
@ PHI
V S . N YG
11/3
10/
19 VS. -1 3 S
28-27
L
11/
VS.
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
9/29
@
. DA
VS 17 24 - 4
20-1 OVER/UNDER WINS 9
11/10
17-1K6C
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
34-0
2
31-7
@ WA S
12/1
VEGAS VIBE
. GB
@ OAK
L
22 24 - 0 10/
2
10/27
THE BIRDS ARE ON THE FAST TRACK TO ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING YEAR.
9/2
8–8 35.7%
VS. OAK
10
UNIT PROJECTIONS
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
-28
11/
DA
EAGLES
EN
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
11/ A NEW YEAR In 17 2012 the G-Men didn’t record a sack vs. Philly when bringing four or fewer rushers. The departure of Osi Umenyiora (12 sacks since 2011 in that package) won’t help their cause here.
WIN LOSS
VS.
PHILADELPHIA
5
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
VS
5 1 - GB 20
NFC EAST
9/1
-28 30@ CAR
12/8
@
20
10/6
15
24 @ -17 M
12/ 0
9/29
2.8
@
@
AS
ELI MANNING %
V S . WA
S. W
2
7 3-1 ET
11.1
7.2
Not all mistakes are created equally. Manning, 2.8% BDR in 2012, had 35 points (worst in NFL) in my weighted bad decision metric, which measures the consequences of faulty throws.
12/29
/22
VICTOR CRUZ
1
by KC Joyner
60-1 7
OVER/UNDER WINS
11/
BAD DECISION RATE
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
V 24 27- 7
by Pro-Football Reference
STARTING WR AVG.
6–10 18.4%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
VS. ARI
Since 2011, Cruz has racked up the fifth-most receiving yards (2,628), eighth-most receiving TDs (19) and 10th-largest share of team adjusted catch yards (28.7%). No wonder the man got paid this offseason.
NON-QB MVP
12/1
10 19
45-D2EN4
DEFENSE
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
9
by Football Outsiders
94
D
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
42-20
The defense had an adjusted sack rate ranked in the top 10 during its last two Super Bowl seasons. Last year that ranking fell to 22. Injuries and defections—among them DE Osi Umenyiora (Falcons)—make this now-average D (No. 16 in 2012) unlikely to regain its spark. Luckily Eli Manning has two talented backs in David Wilson (5.0 ypc as rookie) and Andre Brown (5.3) to help him keep the D off the field.
UNIT PROJECTIONS
34
15
-27 30VS. KC
WITH MANNING AT THE CONTROLS, NOTHING IS OUT OF THE QUESTION.
12
27 VS. -21 S
9/1
GIANTS
WIN LOSS
@ WA S
@D
23VS. CHI
NEW YORK
OFFENSE
-16
41 - 0
17-3AL
MIN
13 27-
10/
21
BAD DECISION RATE by KC Joyner
Everything with this team remains a Chip Kelly–cloaked mystery. Sure, the offense—especially the line, which ranked 28th in run blocking last season—will have to adjust to Kelly’s fast-paced, run-first scheme. But the defense (our No. 26 unit in 2012) is the biggest wild card: Four new DBs dot the secondary, while the front seven seems ill fit for new defensive coordinator Billy Davis’ 3-4 scheme.
Even during a concussionmarred 2012, LeSean McCoy had seven runs of 20-plus yards (17th in NFL). With Kelly at the helm, McCoy’s versatility (34 total TDs since 2010) will be put to full use.
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
1.8
NICK FOLES
%
STARTING RB AVG. 6.2 0
LESEAN MCCOY
8.8
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
20
Yes, Kelly wants playmakers, but he’s also a zealot about protecting the ball, which is why Foles (1.8% BDR in 2012) should ultimately win this QB battle over Michael Vick. He didn’t make one bad decision in four of his seven games as a rookie.
FROM TOP: RICHARD A. BRIGHTLY/ICON SMI; DAVID RICHARD/USA TODAY SPORTS
PREVIEW
9/8
23-13
27-C2H4I
19 VS. -1 4 W
NFC NORTH
5
GREEN BAY
15
@ BAL
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
8-1 10
.
MIN
10/
24 @
VS. PHI
VS. CHI
51-20
10/
31-13
11/10
MIN
21 27-
G
STARTING LB AVG.
DEFENSE
27
1 1 /4
CLAY MATTHEWS
7.6 0
11.4
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
12
CHICAGO
A NEW YEAR Chicago’s three offensive line additions will be put to the test early. The Bengals recorded a sack once every 12.5 drop-backs 9/8 when sending four or fewer rushers last 9/1 season, best in 5 VS. CIN the NFL.
15 12/
LE
28@ 27 C
19-17
ST L
VS. NO
10
2
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
11/
By far the league’s most prolific defensive lineman over the past decade, Julius Peppers shows no signs of slowing down after posting the 10th-best sack season (11.5) in NFL history by a 32-year-old.
30-1 8.5
OVER/UNDER WINS
33
20
A bad BDR—3.2% in 2012 (third worst in NFL)—has followed Cutler through every NFL system he’s played in. Not even offensive innovator and new Bears coach Marc Trestman will change Cutler’s risk-taking mentality.
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
@ 22 30- 4
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
3.2%
VEGAS VIBE
@ MIN
16.2
JAY CUTLER
12/1
0
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
16-14
7.2
JULIUS PEPPERS
9–7 35.7%
VS. DAL
STARTING DL AVG.
12/9
OFFENSE
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
9/29
by KC Joyner
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
@
BAD DECISION RATE
by Pro-Football Reference
96
IN
31-D2ET7
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
The 2012 Bears D was one of the best we’ve ever tracked, leading our metrics against both the run and pass. Even factoring in heavy regression, it still projects as our top unit. The O, hamstrung (again) by upheaval up front, needs to find a No. 2 WR. Brandon Marshall was the target of 40.2% of Chicago’s passes in 2012; no other WR since ’91 has had more than 36% of a team’s targets.
341 M 4
VS.
9/2
UNIT PROJECTIONS
30 1
VS
24 31@- PIT
NEW COACH, SAME STORY: “BEAR DOWN” DEFENSE GOES TO WASTE.
DEFENSE
-16 23@ PHI
23-17
27-.2GB4
2
BEARS
/22
1.8
% AARON RODGERS
Volume is not what makes Aaron Rodgers (1.8% BDR in 2012) the NFL’s best; eight QBs threw more passes. But no one closed out drives better: 33 TDs on vertical/stretch vertical throws, six more than the next closest QB.
20
Matthews is one of the most versatile LBs near the line. He missed four games in 2012 but still was third among LBs in sacks (13) and had a 73% stop rate vs. the run (22nd among LBs).
12/29 NFC NORTH
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
. NY
17
NY
-28
by KC Joyner
OFFENSE
VS
11/
@
BAD DECISION RATE
by Pro-Football Reference
-26 G
34
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
The WRs likely will be healthier this season (seventh in adjusted games lost in 2012), and prized rookie RBs Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin give a real boost to a ground game that ranked 20th in yardage despite an 11–5 record. Likely improvement on third down gives the defense (eighth in DVOA, 21st on third down) a good chance to beat this projection.
VS
VS.
-7
11/
28
2 7 CLE -0
OVER/UNDER WINS
UNIT PROJECTIONS
1 15
10/13
23-20
@ DET
11/28
33-27
VEGAS VIBE
20
AL
27 @ -1 9 D
VS. ATL
23-13
11–5 CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS 55.5%
THE NFL’S BEST QB PACKS A DIVISION-WINNING PUNCH.
10/6
VS.
23-D7ET
12/8
2
12/
9/2
-13 26@ CIN
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
WIN LOSS
PACKERS
AS
VS
35-27
-27 5 2 . PIT
9/1
@ SF
@
10/6
12/29
VS
2 7 . BAL -24
11/
17
/10
A NEW YEAR Did the Packers learn their lesson? They allowed 176 yards on zone-read runs vs. the 49ers in last year’s playoffs (the most by any team in 22 the last three 12/ seasons).
@
VS. DET
27-13 11/10
@ GB
31-13
WA
S
1 31-
4
10/
20
WIN LOSS
1 1 /4
FROM TOP: SCOTT BOEHM/AP IMAGES; JEFF HA N ISCH/USA TODAY SPORTS
PREVIEW A NEW YEAR Greg Jennings had 40 catches of 30-plus yards (fourth most in NFL) with the Packers from 2008 to 2012. The Vikings had seven such plays as a team last season, tied 9/8 for fewest in the NFL.
2 @ CI
9/1
34 @ -1 4 CH
5
NFC NORTH
DETROIT
I
PH
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
@ BAL
IT
7–9 CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS 27.4%
VS. CAR
27-20
VS. CHI
16-14
12/1
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
50-1 7.5
9/29
20(-L3ONDON)
30-12
QUESTION IS: WHY DIDN’T STAFFORD TARGET JOHNSON 522 MORE TIMES?
VS. P
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
2
24 VS. -17
12/
15
9/2
-10 30VS. CLE
12/8
LIONS
I
by Football Outsiders
OFFENSE
OVER/UNDER WINS @
GB
10
24
17
This is a pretty easy sell, huh? Fighting through constant double-teams, Megatron has posted an astonishing 19 games of 100-plus yards in the past two seasons. Next closest in the NFL: Wes Welker (13).
by Pro-Football Reference
/21
-7
11/
11/
12 27
GB VS.
SEA
3117
DEFENSE
NON-QB MVP
2 7 N YG -13
@
28
@
The secondary lacks depth, which showed on sub-packages last season, when the Lions allowed 6.2 yards per play in nickel and dime (23rd) and forced just 10 turnovers (27th). A reversal of fortune—the Lions recovered only 29% of available fumbles in 2012, second worst in the league—and a more diverse offense (Calvin Johnson had an NFL-high 205 targets in 2012) featuring RB Reggie Bush could get Detroit a few extra W’s.
UNIT PROJECTIONS
V S . WA S
@ DAL
31-27
38-23
11/7
21 27-
27 10/
11/3
BAD DECISION RATE
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
by KC Joyner
MINNESOTA
12/
VIKINGS
22
7 3-1 YG
16 BA
L
16VS. 1 3
12/
@ PHI
12/8
27-12
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
50-1 7.5
9/29
VS
5–11 21.7%
VS.
Ponder, with a 2.2% BDR in 2012, doesn’t always know when to cut his losses. His three INTs on scrambling plays tied for the NFL lead. Worst of all: His 3.7 ypa on such throws indicates little reward for such risky play.
TB
13
10/
20
24
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
14.8
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
RI
-19
98
2.2%
CHRISTIAN PONDER
0
5
OVER/UNDER WINS
11/
by KC Joyner
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
6.2
ADRIAN PETERSON
9/1
25 @ -24 A
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
20
BAD DECISION RATE
STARTING RB AVG.
VS. MIN
@
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
VS. GB
by Pro-Football Reference
Peterson powered Minnesota’s O with an astounding 6.0 ypc on 348 carries (second most in NFL). The last time he had 340-plus carries in a season, he led the NFL in TDs the following year.
11/28
NON-QB MVP
19-14
27-M1I0N
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
33-27
24 25
20
9/8
31-.2CH7I
DEFENSE
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
2
OFFENSE
0
9/2
by Football Outsiders
As great as RB Adrian Peterson is, the stats show he’ll likely regress: The only ball carrier ever to have back-to-back 1,800-yard seasons is Eric Dickerson. This puts offensive improvement in the hands of QB Christian Ponder and new wideout Greg Jennings, who started just five games in 2012. Yikes. Losing CB Antoine Winfield (eighth in adjusted yards per pass allowed) will hurt in a division full of high-volume passers.
13.9
7.2
-3 30@ WAS
UNIT PROJECTIONS
2.3%
MATTHEW STAFFORD
2 VS. N
PETERSON IS A WONDER, BUT THE VIKES’ FATE WILL REST WITH PONDER.
CALVIN JOHNSON
Quantity far outweighed quality for Stafford in 2012 (2.3% BDR). He set the record for attempts (727) but had the second-highest INT/near INT total (48) and the most bad decision INTs on short passes (5).
12/29
NFC NORTH
STARTING WR AVG.
10/6
@ DET
VS.
@ GB
7-7N
19-14
27-D1E0T
23-7
/22
@
12
10/13
WIN LOSS
3 1 - CLE 29
12/29
@
WIN LOSS
2 7 PIT -13
11/
17
@ CHI
27-13 11/10
VS. DAL
CIN
21 24 - 0
VS.
A NEW YEAR Reggie Bush arrives having led the NFL with five runs 10/27 of 20-plus yards outside the tackles last season. The Packers were the only team to allow such a run vs. the Lions in 2012.
34-29
10/
2
FROM TOP: CARLOS OSORIO/AP IMAGES; ANDY KING/GETTY IMAGES
PREVIEW
12/29
12
ATLANTA
VS.
15 12/
AS
27 VS. -1 0 W
23-13
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
@ GB
11–5 52.2%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
ONTO
18-1 10
)
38-33
34-27
@ NYJ
30
9/1
20
10/
11/
17
VS. SEA
28-24 11/10
I
10/
31-23
WIN LOSS
27
11/3
NFC SOUTH
TAMPA BAY
O
BUCCANEERS THE SECONDARY STOCKED, THIS D IS PRIMED FOR A TURNAROUND.
VS. PHI
30-23
@ CAR
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
T
@
DE
@ 19 20- 4
50-1 OVER/UNDER WINS 7.5
27 ATL -10
12/1
26-23
VEGAS VIBE
10
2
/20
11/
C VS.
L
VS. MIA
17-6 11/11
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
@ SEA
31-3 11/3
AR
3 27-
10/
24
WIN LOSS
9/29
VS
38.-A1R0I
9–7 46.5%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
10/13
SF
2
-17 25@ NE
12/
1
9/2
26- 5 VS. 2 3
@ CAR
5
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
34-7
AR
13 27-
@
VS. -7 N
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
VS. BUF
VS
@
2 7 TB -23
9/8
2 @S
17
2 7 . TB -10
O
2
A NEW YEAR The Bucs gave up the third-most 30-yard pass plays in 2012 (25), but the arrival of Dashon Goldson and Darrelle Revis 12/29 should help. Drew Brees completed five such throws /22 vs. Tampa 12 @ NO in 2012.
11/
Since 2010, Roddy White is second in receiving yards (4,036) and tied for first in targets (502). With Matt Ryan under center, White should notch his seventh straight season of 1,100-plus yards.
OVER/UNDER WINS S. N
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
Ryan’s 14 INTs indicate a down year, but his 4.6% INT/near INT rate (fifth best in NFL) and 2% BDR tell another story. Expect a turnover turnaround from the NFL’s most accurate passer in 2012 (68.6% completion rate).
20
V 24 35- 1
0
VS. NYJ
VEGAS VIBE
34-7
2.0%
MATT RYAN
12/1
13.9
7.2
RB Steven Jackson (No. 11 RB in 2012, according to DVOA) will add pop to the Falcons offense, but only if its No. 24 run-blocking line shows improvement. Atlanta hopes that rookie CBs Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford will help boost its pass defense to an elite level (No. 11 in 2012), but that plan could fall short: Even eventually great corners tend to struggle as rookies.
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
24-23
11 24
RODDY WHITE
12/8
STARTING WR AVG.
DEFENSE
27 -23
L
9/29
OFFENSE
11/
-3
ST
VS
by KC Joyner
. AT
/15
27-. 2NE0
BAD DECISION RATE
by Pro-Football Reference
VS
26
2
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
12/8
@ NO
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
@ BUF (TOR
UNIT PROJECTIONS
100
42-34
VS
14 16@- MIA
THESE GAME BREAKERS WILL PUT UP POINTS IF THE LINE OPENS UP HOLES.
9 4-1 TL
-19 2 5 @ SF
30-. C2A0R
9/2
FALCONS
/23
10/7
NFC SOUTH
A NEW YEAR The Falcons will miss DE John Abraham. They had 27 sacks in 454 drop-backs with him on the field in 2012 but only two sacks on 141 drops without him. New DE 9/8 Osi Umenyiora has zero sacks in three games vs. the Pats. 9
UNIT PROJECTIONS
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
by Pro-Football Reference
OFFENSE
STARTING RB AVG.
DEFENSE
15 4
The additions of CB Darrelle Revis (led Jets’ top D vs. No. 1 WRs in 2011) and S Dashon Goldson (9 INTs past two seasons) change everything for the Bucs (our No. 26 pass D in 2012). WRs Vincent Jackson (19.2 ypc, No. 1 in NFL) and Mike Williams (15.8, No. 12) will continue to stretch the field if QB Josh Freeman ups his accuracy. He completed only 54.8% of his passes in 2012, 29th in the NFL.
6.2 0
BAD DECISION RATE by KC Joyner
DOUG MARTIN
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
14.0
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
20
Doug Martin’s big-play ability helped make up for Freeman’s struggles. Martin’s five runs of 40-plus yards (tied for second in NFL) helped the Bucs jump from 30th in rushing in 2011 to 15th.
2.0
% JOSH FREEMAN
Freeman’s 17 INTs in 2012 (tied for fifth most in NFL) were a little misleading. More than one-third of those picks were at least partially—and in many cases entirely—due to a route-running mistake.
FROM TOP: DAVE MARTIN/AP IMAGES; TOM DIPACE
PREVIEW A NEW YEAR Without suspended coach Sean Payton in 2012, the Saints converted only 44% on third down, their worst rate since 2006, Payton’s 9/8 first year. Arizona had the NFL’s No. 2 third-down D. 9/
12/29
12
/22
3
CAROLINA
22
-12 34VS. NO
15 AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
9/8
27-17
30-A2TL0
VS. SEA
@
34-
@
BU
F
9/1
5
31
YJ
27-20
@ MIN
VS. TB
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
40-1 7.5
VS. CAR
24-17
OFFENSE
DEFENSE
5 31 NON-QB MVP by Pro-Football Reference
L . ST
/20
10
2
23
11/
-16
VS
MIA
@ 19 27- 4
41 -
11/
18
. NE
34
@ @ SF
31-7 11/10
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
31-23
23-19
35-27
@ CHI
NE
13
-16
@
20-14
20
-13 10/
27
11/3
With Sean Payton back, the Saints offense could return to the heights of 2011, when it had one of the 10 best offensive DVOA seasons ever. But even with big-name rookies like S Kenny Vaccaro and DT John Jenkins (6'4", 346), new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan inherits a mess from predecessor Steve Spagnuolo that won’t be easily fixed this season. The Saints D finished dead last in DVOA in 2012.
A first-team All-Pro for four straight years, RG Jahri Evans didn’t allow a sack in ’12. His 6'4", 318-pound frame helped the Saints post the NFL’s third-best power success rate (71%) on short-yardage runs.
TB
3 27-
A NEW YEAR Can Lotulelei clog the middle? Carolina allowed 1.92 yards after contact 3 11/ per inside rush in ’12 (second most in NFL), including 2.4 yards after contact vs. Bucs RB Doug Martin.
VS. ATL
29
12/8
by Football Outsiders
10/6
7–9 CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS 30.0%
@
26-23
23-A2RI0
12/1
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
VS
@ NYJ
11/10
UNIT PROJECTIONS
10/13
15 12/
37 VS. -13 N
17
VS. DAL
F
PAYTON RETURNS, BUT SO DOES THE INFAMOUS SAINTS DEFENSE.
2
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
@ NO
11/
BU
SAINTS
9/2
24-17
WIN LOSS
VS.
NEW ORLEANS
WIN LOSS
OVER/UNDER WINS
102
1 4 - . SF 10
NFC SOUTH
-28 30VS. NYG
12/8
VS
20
10/6
TL
23@ 20 S
12/ 0
9/30
3.1
12/29
12/
18-1 9
OVER/UNDER WINS
Newton (3.1% BDR in 2012) cut it loose last season, as nearly 36% of his throws were 11-plus yards downfield (third highest in NFL). The reason: He was efficient with the deep ball (3.5% vertical INT rate, 10th best).
CAM NEWTON %
VS
by KC Joyner
10.5
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
ATL
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
7.2
6–10 25.3%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
11/
BAD DECISION RATE
STEVE SMITH
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
@ 24 35- 2 1
by Pro-Football Reference
STARTING WR AVG.
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
@ SEA
Smith edged out LB Luke Kuechly (165 tackles as a rookie) for this honor. Since Cam Newton was drafted in 2011, Smith has accumulated 30% of the team’s adjusted catch yards (seventh in NFL).
NON-QB MVP
12/2
9 3
-7
24.-M1IA7
DEFENSE
TB
15
9/2
OFFENSE
@
C
34-19
Seven losses by less than a TD and a 5–1 finish suggest a team ready to step forward. Unless, of course, coach Ron Rivera is the problem, which is entirely possible. If rookie D-linemen Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short can help stud DEs Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy (23.5 combined sacks in 2012) create more opportunities for an already-solid secondary (5.8 net ypa allowed, 10th in NFL), this could be a special defense.
by Football Outsiders
30
-20 30VS. ARI
A FEISTY FRONT FOUR LEADS THE WAY FOR THIS REVIVED D.
UNIT PROJECTIONS
@
VS. ATL
VS
2
PANTHERS
2 4-1 AR
42-34
34-.2TB7
10/
NFC SOUTH
10/
24
BAD DECISION RATE by KC Joyner
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
2.3%
DREW BREES
STARTING OL AVG. 7.4 0
JAHRI EVANS
17.7
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
20
It’s hard to knock a guy who threw 43 TDs (best in NFL), but Brees was one of two QBs with 10 bad decision INTs last season. And that was despite getting his historically high BDR somewhat in check (2.3%).
FROM TOP: SCOTT A. MILLER/AP IMAGES; TIM H EITMAN/USA TODAY SPORTS
PREVIEW 9/8
16VS. 1 3
3 VS. A
5
WIN LOSS
SF
YG
@ SF
@ IND
24-23
VS. NO
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
10-1 10.5
N
. TE
10
1
10
/13
11/
11/
ATL
VS. TB
@ STL
31-3
17-10
A NEW YEAR Recently added 11/3 DE Cliff Avril had 16.5 sacks when Detroit rushed four or fewer the past two seasons. Seattle had two sacks after Week 14 (zero vs. Atlanta in playoffs) in the same set.
AR
I
16 24 - 7
@
-24
10/
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
by Pro-Football Reference
OFFENSE
STARTING DB AVG.
DEFENSE
1
10/28
BAD DECISION RATE
0
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
12
In 2012 Richard Sherman led all DBs in AV (18), tied for second in INTs (8) and had the eighth-best success rate on pass targets (61%). And yet his cap hit was $511K. Come on, Seattle, pay the man!
9/8
9/1
161 S 3
@
5
EA
1
26- 5 @ 23 T
B
12/
VS. SEA
RI .A VS
12/8
26-23
S
ESPN The Magazine 09/02/2013
WA
The best LB the past half-decade, Patrick Willis has averaged 137 tackles per season in his NFL career. He’s no pushover vs. the pass either. His 4.3 ypa allowed was fourth among LBs in 2012.
46
10
Kaepernick (2.2% BDR) threw the NFL’s fewest INTs in 2012 (3), but five defenders dropped potential picks, and WR Randy Moss broke up 3 INTs. Don’t be shocked if CK posts double-digit picks this season.
2
20
OVER/UNDER WINS
11/
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
6-1 11.5
COLIN KAEPERNICK
9/26
15.2
2.2%
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
@ 12 13- 5
0
by KC Joyner ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
@
7.6
13–3 58.8%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
BAD DECISION RATE PATRICK WILLIS
24-S2TL1
OFFENSE
STARTING LB AVG.
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
VS. STL
by Pro-Football Reference
12/1
NON-QB MVP
by Football Outsiders
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
32-3
UNIT PROJECTIONS
-13 34VS. IND
WILLIS & CO. HAVE THE GOODS FOR A RETURN TRIP TO THE SUPER BOWL.
104
VS. GB
@
2
49ERS
All four starters from the NFL’s best linebacker corps return to San Francisco, but whether or not the 49ers defense will register a third straight season in our top three depends largely on the health of DE Justin Smith (triceps). Back-to-back 1,200-yard seasons—and Colin Kaepernick’s running the read-option—have revitalized RB Frank Gore (No. 4 rushing DVOA in 2012).
23-13
22-A1R7I
9/2
SAN FRANCISCO
8 7
9 5-1 TL
Wilson (1.2% BDR) didn’t make a bad decision in his last eight games. A little context: The best QBs tend to make an error once every three games. Wilson has a chance to dethrone Tom Brady as BDR king.
20
2 VS. A
NFC WEST
DEFENSE
/23
1.2
% RUSSELL WILSON
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
13.7
12/29 WIN LOSS
by KC Joyner
RICHARD SHERMAN
6.3
Percy Harvin will miss most of the year, but the Seahawks were fourth in offensive DVOA without him last season. Marshawn Lynch (1,592 yards, 11 TDs) was our second most valuable RB in 2012. The biggest question with the D: With Bruce Irvin suspended and Chris Clemons coming off an ACL tear, will the Seahawks have enough pass rush to repeat their No. 3 rank in pass defense DVOA?
-3
IN
VS
S. M
V 17 31- 7
28
@
UNIT PROJECTIONS
7 9
OVER/UNDER WINS
24
12/2
34-19
VEGAS VIBE
NO PERCY, NO PROBLEM. WILSON’S MISTAKE-FREE PLAY LIFTS HAWKS.
VS. HOU
26-23
13–3 64.3%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
SEAHAWKS 9/29
@
21-H1OU4
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
10/6
12/
19@ 13 N
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
2
-0 58VS. JAC
12/8
SEATTLE
9/2
15
NFC WEST
19-13
0 8-1 RI
9/1
@ CAR
VS
10/6
27-17
37-. 1STL0
/22
-16
12
/13
12/29
@
11/
1 4 - NO 10
17
VS. CAR
31-7 11/10
@ JAC (LON
DON)
24-10 10/27
TEN
24 31-
@
A NEW YEAR Expect the 49ers to play Vernon Davis (19.0 ypc when lined up at WR) in the slot a lot vs. the Saints, whom he torched for 147 yards on such plays in the 2011 playoffs.
10/
20
FROM TOP: OTTO GREULE JR./GETTY IMAGES; MARK J. REBILAS/USA TODAY SPORTS
PREVIEW A NEW YEAR Falcons RB Steven Jackson faces his former team. From 2004 to 2012, Jackson accounted for 65.4% of the Rams’ total 12/29 rushes, the highest rate for one rusher /22 and team over 12 @ SEA that span.
9/8
22-17
37-10
-19
VS. ARI
24VS. TB
26-
@
ATL
9/1
5 NFC WEST
3
ARIZONA
15 12/
NO
by Football Outsiders
@ ARI
20-9
@ SF
VS. JAC
VEGAS VIBE
32-3
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
50-1 7.5
DEFENSE
22 18
VS. SEA
17-10
11/3
10/
/13
20
10/28
BAD DECISION RATE
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
by KC Joyner
ST. LOUIS
RAMS
12
3
DE
5
WIN LOSS
T
15
21-13
VS. STL
VS. CAR SF
12/8
EN
37 @ -20 T
12/ Forget Austin, the most vital signee for Bradford (1.7% BDR) is ex-Titans TE Jared Cook, who can flex wide or line up tight. Only one of Bradford’s 24 INTs/near INTs in 2012 was on a throw to an in-line TE.
46
20
26 11/
17
@
10
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
9/29
0
38@-1TB0
9.0
300-1 5.5
OVER/UNDER WINS
ND
SAM BRADFORD
7.6
VEGAS VIBE
by LVH SuperBook SUPER BOWL ODDS
S. I
1.7
%
STARTING JAMES LB AVG. LAURINAITIS
3–13 14.7%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
2
FROM TOP: PAUL JASIENS KI/AP IMAGES; TOM DIPACE
9/1
25V S . 24
11/
by KC Joyner
A big reason the Rams’ rush D ranked 10th in DVOA: Laurinaitis hardly ever leaves the field. He hasn’t missed a game in four seasons and is by far the league’s leading solo tackler (427) since 2009.
ELITE <1.5% GOOD 2% AVERAGE 2.5% BAD 3% TERRIBLE >3.5%
@ STL
V
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
V 14 21- 4
BAD DECISION RATE
22-17
22S-.1S7F
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
@ PHI
by Pro-Football Reference
The Rams offense ranked 21st in our metrics last season, and that was before the team let Jackson and WR Danny Amendola walk. First-round WR Tavon Austin (10.4 yards per touch at West Virginia in 2012) will give QB Sam Bradford a much-needed weapon. But to get into the playoff hunt, St. Louis’ D will have to avoid a likely regression after improving from 21st to seventh and having the third-fewest adjusted games lost in 2012.
12/1
NON-QB MVP
9/8
S
42-20
29 23
@
20
2
DEFENSE
CARSON PALMER
-20 3 0 @ NO
OFFENSE
0 8-1 EA
AVG. APPROXIMATE VALUE (2010-12)
9/2
A REGRESSING D AND REBUILDING O. WHAT’S NOT TO LIKE?
by Football Outsiders
/22
0
Palmer has a risk-taking reputation, but his 2% BDR last year was nearly equal to that of Aaron Rodgers (1.8%). He won’t make many unnecessary throws in Bruce Arians’ vertical offense.
%
12/29
NFC WEST
UNIT PROJECTIONS
2.0
15.7
6.3
10/6
VS. TEN
30-9
R
-16
-14
CA
16 23-
@
23-20
IND
PATRICK PETERSON
@
10
10
2
11/
by Pro-Football Reference
STARTING DB AVG.
/13
U HO
11/
38
@
Peterson’s punt-returning skills made him an All-Pro as a rookie, but he has evolved into a shut-down corner. In 2012 he had 7 INTs and denied opponents on 59% of targets (11th in NFL).
NON-QB MVP
-7
HI
@
S. C
V 22 30- 4
OVER/UNDER WINS
34
12/1
The 2012 Cardinals featured the worst run blocking we’ve ever measured, so even if first-round G Jonathan Cooper improves the O-line, it’s still in sorry shape. The bright side: Competent QB play should revitalize WR Larry Fitzgerald, whose percentage of Cards receptions has dropped from 32% to 21% since 2011. CB Patrick Peterson, leader of last season’s No. 2 pass D, will need to adjust to three new starters and coordinator Todd Bowles.
UNIT PROJECTIONS OFFENSE
10/6
23VS. 2 0
21-13
V
7–9 22.1%
CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS
UH, MR. PETERSON, YOUR THUMB IS POINTING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.
9/26
24S-. 2SF1
12/8
2
by Pro Football Focus 2013 PROJECTED RECORD
WIN LOSS
CARDINALS
9/2
-28 52@ DAL
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
JA
-23
VS.
C
VS. HOU
16-10 11/10
VS. ATL
27-13 10/27
SE
A
16 24 - 7
A NEW YEAR Arizona drafted Cooper after giving up an NFL-high 38 sacks vs. four or fewer rushers in 2012. The 49ers had 36 sacks with a standard pass rush last season (second in NFL).
10/
1
09/02/2013 ESPN The Magazine
107