FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE NFL POWER RANKINGS, GO TO ESPN.COM/NFL/POWERRANKINGS NOW AND EVERY TUESDAY THROUGHOUT THE SEASON.
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This time of year, everyone has a theory—about the players who’ll matter the most, the games that’ll go to the wire and the team that’ll exit New Jersey with the Lombardi trophy. You can have your hunches; we’ll take analytics every time. So we turned to some of the NFL’s smartest statheads. Football Outsiders mined its 22 seasons of data to forecast each team’s offensive and defensive performance. Pro-Football Reference used its Approximate Value metric to highlight a non-QB MVP, while our resident Football Scientist, KC Joyner, studied the bad decisions of each signal-caller. Finally, Pro Football Focus performed its algorithmic gymnastics to predict the scores of all 256 regular-season games and our playoff bracket. The only theory left to test: Does champagne taste sweeter at Mile High or the Meadowlands?
THE MAG ’S PLAYOFF PICKS
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GLOSSARY WIN LOSS
DVOA (DEFENSE-ADJUSTED VALUE OVER AVERAGE)
Breaks down the season play-by-play, comparing success to the league average based on variables including down, distance, location on the field, current score gap, quarter and opponent quality.
AV (APPROXIMATE VALUE)
34-31
The approximate measure of a player’s value, calculated by using metrics like games started, Pro Bowls, All-Pros and other stats when applicable.
BDR (BAD DECISION RATE)
24-14
The rate at which a QB makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the D.
28-24
INT CONVERSION RATE
The rate at which a quarterback’s INT opportunities—passes that reach the catching frame of a defender—are actually picked off.
37-20
41-28
BENGALS
31-24
BRONCOS
ADJUSTED LINE YARDS
23-21
Measures runs at specific distances to calculate blocking rather than what the RB does in the open field. Adjusted for situation and opponent.
SEAHAWKS
PACKERS
ADJUSTED GAMES LOST
20-13
24-3
45-10
Measures the cost of injuries, of missed games and of games in which players were unable to play to their full potential.
19-13
POWER SUCCESS RATE
The percentage of runs on third or fourth down, with two yards or less to go, that achieve a first down/TD.
TEXANS
RAVENS
DOLPHINS
CHIEFS
FALCONS
BUCS
FR OM LEFT: TO M D IPACE/AP IMAGES; RIC TAPIA/AP IMAGES; JOHN FR OSCHAUER/AP IMAGES; ROWAN STASZKI EWI C Z/PA PHOTOS/ LANDOV; GREG TR OTT/AP IMAGES; ROB TRIN GALI; HELMET ILLUSTRATIO N S BY HY PERAKT
49ERS
REDSKINS
09/02/2013 ESPN The Magazine
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