2014 Super Bowl Preview

SUPER BOWL XLVIII PREVIEW

Broncos QB Peyton Manning

Seahawks CB Richard Sherman

LIFE OF PI

THINK THE DBS ARE WORRIED ABOUT PASS INTERFERENCE PENALTIES ON SUPER SUNDAY? THINK AGAIN. IN FACT, HARASSING PEYTON MANNING’S RECEIVERS IS KEY TO A SEATTLE VICTORY. By David Fleming

FROM LEFT: AARON M. SPRECHER/AP IMAGES; PAUL KITAGAKI JR/SACRAMENTO BEE/ZUMA PRESS

02/03/2014 ES P N T h e M a g a zin e

25

1

S I X W AY S TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL

8

STOP CARING ABOUT PENALTIES

Eight of the past 12 Super Bowl winners were flagged for more penalty yards than their opponents. This is a clear departure from the regular season, in which teams that are flagged more have just a .452 winning percentage since 2001. So memo to all Broncos and Seahawks: Bump, interfere and hold all you want. If history holds, you’ll be leaving Jersey with a nice trophy.

On his way to the airport, Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith always checks and rechecks his backpack for the one item he absolutely must have when traveling home to California: his Super Bowl ring. A year ago in New Orleans, Smith’s aggressive, physical coverage on 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree on fourth and goal with 1:46 to play secured the Ravens’ win, despite the volcanic protestations of coach Jim Harbaugh, who simply couldn’t believe Smith wasn’t flagged. To this day, Niners fans who cross paths with Smith keep up the barrage.

“They still see me and go, ‘That was holding, that was holding, that was holding,’” says Smith. “I always just flash my ring and say, ‘Yeah, well, the only thing I’m holding now is the championship.’”

Smith’s mostly incidental contact with Crabtree did more than help the Ravens procure the world’s most ostentatious trump card, featuring 243 diamonds and custom amethyst. It also ushered in a new, ingenious and highly effective tool for defensive backs in this pass-happy era of the NFL—and that tool played a big role in determining this

Kuechly wasn’t flagged for PI (top), and Bailey didn’t commit a penalty all season.

26

ESPN The Magazine 02/03/2014

FROM TOP: EVAN PIKE/CSM/LANDOV; RON CHENOY/USA TODAY SPORTS

2

S I X W AY S TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL

5-1

year’s Super Bowl matchup.

Watch closely downfield inside MetLife Stadium during the big game and you’re sure to see the same sleight of hand Smith and the Ravens pulled a year ago: not just embracing pass interference but using it as an effective weapon. In today’s NFL, the choice is simple: Defenses can back off, stay penalty-free and surrender 500 yards passing, like the 3–13 Redskins (one pass interference call all season, 29.9 ppg allowed).

Or they can follow the lead of Seattle (NFL-most 13 PIs, NFL-best 14.4 ppg) and push the boundaries of what the rulebook allows.

Bruising Broncos corner Chris Harris certainly did.

He had seven penalties (four for defensive holding) for a Denver defense that finished with 10 PI calls, but he’s out with a torn ACL. And make no mistake: He’ll be missed on Super Sunday. The otherwise soft Denver pass D gave up 254.4 ypg this season, 27th in the league.

Veteran Champ Bailey will shift over from safety to replace Harris, and as counterintuitive as it sounds, Bailey (zero penalties in 2013) may want to consider digging out the mugging gloves that got him seven yellow hankies in 2012. “It’s a no-brainer,” says Smith. “I’d rather risk a PI than play too tentatively and let Crabtree catch the game-winning touchdown in the Super Bowl and never, ever be able to redeem myself.”

The numbers suggest the NFL is cracking down more than ever on PI—233 penalties cost defenses 4,058 yards in 2013; by

28

DON’T LOAD THE BOX

Since 2006, Super Bowl offenses that faced a loaded box on more than 20% of snaps are 5–1. The reason? Overall, the stats from the past seven Super Bowls indicate that crowding the line of scrimmage with more defenders than the offense has blockers nearly triples the likelihood that the offense will score a touchdown on that play.

comparison, five years ago those numbers were 154 for 2,534 yards. But the truth is that defenses are actually camouflaging new, überaggressive coverage techniques by hiding them in plain sight.

It’s the same logic loophole long used by offensive linemen: hold on nearly every single play because refs simply won’t throw 50 flags in a game. The same principle works on defense.

If everything in the NFL looks like pass interference, that’s the same thing as saying nothing is. It’s genius, really. “Coaches tell us that now: ‘Hey, they can’t call it on every play,’” Smith says.

“You see how much Seattle gets away with? They get called for it a lot, but they also get away with it a lot.”

That’s because referees are often tentative, confused and flat-out fatigued watching all

71.9%

ESPN The Magazine 02/03/2014

Once pass interference is called, how good are refs at spotting the ball? We analyzed tape of 167 PI calls from 2013, respotting each ball where it should have been placed. The verdict: Refs get PI spots wrong by at least one yard 71.9% of the time. Often it’s much more than a yard (24.6% of calls were three-plus yards off), and that matters— especially in the Super Bowl. —KC JOYNER

the holding, pushing and hand-checking going on during nearly every pass play.

That, in turn, only increases the upside to a DB’s risk/ reward calculation. What’s more, when corners and safeties do get called for interference, it’s not a punishment but a license to be even more aggressive, knowing that odds are, they won’t get flagged again right away. A pass interference call once shamed DBs into compliance. Now it emboldens them to harass receivers even more. “That concept is very prevalent out there, but especially so with the teams in the playoffs,” says Gerry Austin, an NFL official for 26 years who now serves as a rules analyst for ESPN. “NFL leadership has very serious concerns not just about the number of PI calls being made but the number of PI calls not being made. The whole thing is headed for a major review.”

More than likely, the investigation will start with the Seahawks, who led the league in both penalties (1,183 total yards) and total defense (273.6 ypg). The connection is no coincidence.

In the past decade, the most penalized pass defenses (holding and PIs) all have one thing in common: winning records. Pass interference, materially impacting a receiver’s opportunity to catch the ball, is a spot foul that results in an automatic first down.

Even so, defenses still lost only 17.4 yards per game from PI calls this season. The trade-off is so advantageous that, in the Legion of Boom, interference flags don’t mean you’re sloppy or undisci-

WHAT IS YOUR OPINION OF THE NUMBER OF PASS INTERFERENCE CALLS IN THE NFL THIS SEASON? Not enough

15.1% Too many

47.2% 37.7%

Just the right amount

TOTAL VOTES: 16,905 through Jan. 17

plined—they mean you’re doing your job. “You have to go for it and play as aggressively as you can,” says Earl Thomas, Seattle’s All-Pro safety. “If that means a PI call goes against you, so be it.” Adds teammate Richard Sherman: “Maybe years ago it would have been better to back off and not risk that 30-yard penalty. You just can’t do that anymore.”

On Super Sunday, the Seahawks DBs will meet their match in Denver’s crafty wideouts. Broncos receiver Eric Decker drew five PI calls this year, tied for third most in the NFL, and Wes Welker had a dubious divisional round fourth-quarter flop in a win over San Diego. Most observers thought it was inadvertent contact between Welker and safety Marcus Gilchrist; refs said it was a 23-yard foul.

The reality is, however, that refs usually are reluctant to toss an interference flag in a game’s critical moments.

Take, for example, the most

notorious noncall of the 2013 season. In Week 11, the Panthers held on, literally, to beat the Patriots 24-20 when, on Tom Brady’s final throw into the end zone, linebacker Luke Kuechly was initially flagged for impeding tight end Rob Gronkowski’s path to the ball. The underthrown pass had been intercepted, and gun-shy officials ultimately picked up the flag, claiming the ball was uncatchable. “The refs gave me a bone there,” Kuechly admits now.

Expertly exploiting the PI loophole helped catapult Kuechly and Carolina into the playoffs. Last year Smith’s touchy coverage helped the Ravens secure their Super Bowl bling.

Now Seattle’s ultra-aggressive secondary has set the Seahawks up for a chance at their first-ever NFL title. For defenses trying to survive in this pass-happy league, if you want a shot at a Super Bowl ring, the message is clear: Just reach out and grab it.

3

2.11

S I X W AY S TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL

START THE SECOND HALF WITH THE BALL

Since 2001, teams have averaged 2.11 points per drive in the second half of the Super Bowl, compared with just 1.52 points per drive in the first half—a 39% difference. Post-halftime drives have netted nearly 5% fewer points in the regular season over that same span.

THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE MATCHUP THROWING DOWN

QBs threw more than 18,000 passes in 2013, and ESPN Stats & information tracked where and how far each one traveled and whether the pass was completed. The result is a comprehensive look at the strengths and weaknesses of every QB and pass defense. The grids below plot the completion percentages of Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning, along with what the defenses they’ll face on Super Sunday allowed in the regular season.

RUSSELL WILSON VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE 10

61 72

60 56

52 34

72 70

N/A* 39 49 38

10 Behind the line

20

0-15 yards

PEYTON MANNING VS. SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

30

63 69

75 57

BRONCOS

30

10 Wilson’s 16.6 ypa on these throws is second in the NFL. Denver has allowed 637 yards here, second worst.

Manning’s 5 TDs on these throws is tops in the league.

Seattle faced only three such passes this season.

15+ yards

78 71 82 67 67 49

Line of scrimmage

Line of scrimmage

N/A* 55

20

SEAHAWKS

30

75 61

39 37

73 73

77 N/A*

71

39 38

61 10

Behind the line

20

0-15 yards

20

30 15+ yards

* Sections listed as N/A did not meet the minimum attempt threshold.

PICK YOUR POISON

Peyton Manning’s recordsetting season—5,477 yards and 55 TDs—was paved by plays like this iso and go. It’s impossible to cover all four Denver pass catchers. All it takes is one faulty move by the D and the Broncos are ripping off yet another big play. —FIELD YATES

30

1 WR Wes Welker (1A) and TE Julius Thomas (1B) run basic underneath routes. The goal is to draw the attention of the LBs and FS (1C).

If the D backs off either player, Manning has an easy completion.

1C 2C

2B

2A 1A

ESPN The Magazine 02/03/2014

3 1B

2 Because of his 14.8 ypc average, WR Eric Decker (2A) forces the

nickel corner (2B) and SS (2C) to account for the deep ball.

3 Demaryius Thomas (14 TDs, second in the NFL) has been the true target all along.

If everything goes to plan, Manning will have Thomas isolated one-on-one with nothing but green in front of him.

The past 12 Super Bowl winners have had, on average, a time of possession advantage of 4:51, and teams that control the clock are 9–3 in the big game since 2001. That .750 winning percentage is higher than even the .678 mark compiled by teams with a positive time of possession margin in the regular season since ’01.

WHERE TO RUN

Knowshon Moreno’s 5.7 yards per carry on runs outside the tackles ranked second among all RBs with 40 such carries this season, and it just so happens the Seahawks’ No. 7 rush defense is weak off left tackle. The Broncos D usually controls the middle well, but Marshawn Lynch is a beast up the gut: He has 737 carries inside the tackles since 2011, most in the NFL.

SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

BRONCOS DEFENSE

4.9 5.8

4.2 4.4

4.2

3.5

3.7

4.1

3.9 YARDS PER CARRY ALLOWED

3.5

4.4

5.6

4.2

5.3 3.1

2.5

3.2

5.0

4.3

5.3 4.5

In this era of quick-strike QBs, it should come as no surprise that six of the past eight Super Bowl winners have boasted aboveaverage pass D’s.

As the chart shows, that gives the Seahawks’ top-ranked pass D the advantage over the Broncos’ 27th-ranked unit.

254.4

235.6 172

BRONCOS

3.9 YARDS PER CARRY ALLOWED

DO NOT PASS

LEAGUE AVERAGE

4:51

CONTROL THE CLOCK

SEAHAWKS

4

S I X W AY S TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL

Passing ypg allowed

KNOWSHON MORENO, BRONCOS

MARSHAWN LYNCH, SEAHAWKS

4.3 YARDS PER CARRY

4.2 YARDS PER CARRY

All yards-per-carry numbers from the regular season.

IF PEYTON MANNING WINS ANOTHER SUPER BOWL, WHERE WILL HE RANK AMONG THE BEST QBS OF ALL TIME? 47% NO. 1

28% OUTSIDE THE TOP TWO NO. 2

25% TOTAL VOTES: 21,568 through Jan. 19

32

ESPN The Magazine 02/03/2014

3

Wins by Peyton Manning in nine career outdoor starts played in freezing temps since 2001. That’s the fewest of any QB with at least eight such starts over that span.

FYI: It’s supposed to be a little nippy in New Jersey on Super Sunday.

GREG TROTT/AP IMAGES

5

S I X W AY S TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL

6.1

LEAV E THE BLITZES ON THE BUS

Since 2006, defenses have employed a standard pass rush on nearly 75% of QB dropbacks in the Super Bowl. The reason? Bringing four or fewer pass rushers nets a sack on 6.1% of dropbacks— nearly double the 3.2% sack rate when D’s blitz.

GO BEHIND THE SCENES AT THE 10TH PUPPY BOWL: ES.PN/ PUPPYBOWL2014

BOMBS AWAY

82

Anyone who’s written off the read-option hasn’t watched the Seahawks lately. They’re averaging 4.8 ypc on read-option rushes, and perhaps more important, the scheme is also effective at loosening the secondary and opening up the vertical passing game, as shown in this play. —FIELD YATES 1 RB Marshawn Lynch (1A) was second in the NFL with 301 carries in 2013, so the D can’t ignore the possibility that QB Russell Wilson (1B) will hand the ball to Lynch rather than keep it. When neither happens, the defense is left scrambling.

2B

2A 1B

3

2 WR Jermaine Kearse (2A) runs

1A

RING OF TRUTH

a seam route, which draws the attention of the free safety (2B).

3 Despite his 5'10" frame, Golden Tate is a great jump-ball WR. With Kearse distracting the FS, Tate is left one-on-one up the sideline.

Tate has 4.42 speed, so that’s a tough cover for any CB.

THE AGE-OLD QUESTION: YOUTH VS. EXPERIENCE

Playing in the Super Bowl is no doubt the pinnacle of an NFL player’s career. But at what price? In a poll of more than 300 players conducted by ESPN.com’s NFL Nation reporters, an overwhelming majority admitted they’d play in the title game even with a concussion.

As the chart shows, this Super Bowl features the largest experience disparity between starting QBs in NFL history. But consider this: Since 1999, nine QBs in their 20s have won Super Bowls; none over age 35 has.

Advantage: Russell Wilson.

T R U E O R FA L S E

I’D PLAY IN THE SUPER BOWL WITH A CONCUSSION.

STARTS BY MORE EXPERIENCED QB

85% TRUE

For more results from the NFL Nation Confidential, go to es.pn/1aBURkS

34

ESPN The Magazine 02/03/2014

Don’t expect the first punt return TD in Super Bowl history to happen against Seattle.

It allowed 82 total punt return yards in 2013, fourth fewest of any Super Bowl team since 1978.

2013

208

SUPER BOWL XLVIII 1976

163

SUPER BOWL XI 1970

143

SUPER BOWL V

136 121

1974

SUPER BOWL IX 1998

SUPER BOWL XXXIII

STARTS BY LESS EXPERIENCED QB

DIFFERENCE IN STARTS

240

PEYTON MANNING, DEN RUSSELL WILSON, SEA

32 214

FRAN TARKENTON, MIN KEN STABLER, OAK

51

JOHNNY UNITAS, BAL ( COLTS ) CRAIG MORTON, DAL

172

29 187

FRAN TARKENTON, MIN TERRY BRADSHAW, PIT

51

JOHN ELWAY, DEN CHRIS CHANDLER, ATL

219 98

Only regular season starts included; Source: Elias Sports Bureau

GREG TROTT/AP IMAGES