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CARRYING THE WEIGHT OF HISTORY
Pop quiz: What do Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson and Arian Foster have in common? For starters, each was a top-five NFL running back at one point. And they were all workhorse backs, each entering last season with three consecutive years of 250-plus carries. Oh, and one more thing: The cumulative pounding took its toll in 2013, when their collective production fell off a cliff. All of which should serve as a fantasy red flag for Marshawn Lynch and Frank Gore, who find themselves on the back-to-back-to-back 250-carry watch list this season. In the charts below, we extrapolate just how far their numbers could fall in 2014. —JOHN PAROLIN
THE TREND
The cumulative stats of Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson and Arian Foster took a big hit last season. 2010-12 AVERAGE
2013 AVERAGE
192.75
-34.2%
YARDS 1,256.33 705.50
2011-13 AVERAGE
3.66
MARSHAWN LYNCH
CARRIES
CARRIES 272
TOUCHDOWNS 8.58
300.3
180
198 YARDS 1,184.3
-43.8% -14.7%
CARRIES, 2011-13
2014 PROJECTION
1,350.3
666
759
YARDS PER CARRY 4.29
4.25
Using last year’s quartet as a baseline, Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch might be in for a tough year.
YARDS
YARDS PER CARRY
901
WHO TO WATCH OUT FOR FRANK GORE
CARRIES 292.75
MARSHAWN LYNCH
YARDS PER CARRY 4.4
4.5
3.7
3.8
TOUCHDOWNS
TOUCHDOWNS 8.3
-50.5%
FROM TOP: DAMIAN STROHMEYER/AP IMAGES; KIM KLEMENT/USA TODAY SPORTS
4
11.7 6
FRANK GORE
816 CARRIES, 2011-13
06/23/2014 ES P N T h e M a g a zin e
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