ENERGY REFORM WHY? WHERE? WHEN?
June 2016
1
Macroeconomic environment has been stabilized Key improvements
Currency exchange regulation is eased
• Economic recession is stopped • GDP growth in 2016 is forecasted to be 1% • Inflation is expected to decrease three times in 2016 to 15.1% • After 2 years of UAH depreciation and exchange rate fluctuations, the latter has stabilized around 25 UAH/USD • Industrial output in January-May 2016 is in the green first time since 2013
Dividends obtaining procedure is simplified
NBU discount rate decreased from 30% in June 2015 to 16.5% in June 2016 Successful negotiations with IMF Next credit tranche expected in July 2016
Credit Ratings of Ukraine are improving • • • •
TE Moody's Fitch S&P
15 Caa3 CCC B-
stable stable n/a stable
The main growing industries are:
Machinery
Metallurgy
2
Key macroeconomic indicators are improving GDP and CPI dynamics
UAH/USD exchange rate
48,7
15,1
11,0
8,0
1,0
3,0
4,0
2016*
2017**
2018**
-9,9 2015
GDP growth, %
27,0 26,0 25,0 24,0 23,0 22,0 21,0
CPI, average growth, %
Industrial output, y-o-y, % 2,9 3,7 3,7 3,1
-1,7
-19,0
-17,4
-14,0 -16,1 -14,9
* - Expected;
-13,0
NBU discount rate, % 30,0 27,0 22,0 19,0
18,0 16,5
** - Government forecast
3
Energy sector undergoes in-depth reforms Natural gas sector is heading towards full liberalization
Retail household gas tariffs, UAH/m3 *
• Gas market was liberalized – new law was enacted in October 2015
6,80
• Retail household gas and heat tariffs were raised to cost recovery level based on full import parity
3,60
• Dependence on Russia for natural gas was cut and gas supply has been diversified
0,73
• Gas transmission and storage business is to be unbundled from Naftogaz and transferred to independent operators
2010 - Apr 2014
Regulatory environment in energy sector to be further improved
• Legislation for switching to RAB tariffs is ready since 2012. Pilot implementation project is on since January 2016 (points of entry to and exit from gas transmission system)
Apr 2014 - Apr 2015 Apr 2015 May 2016
1,32
0,72 0,23
2011
0,83 0,25
2012 Households
Remaining State-owned assets in thermal power industry to be privatized
From May 2016
Retail household and commercial electricity tariffs, UAH/kWh **
• Draft law on independence of energy sector regulator is being developed by the Government • Draft law on electricity market is pending adoption by the Parliament
1,18
0,90
0,26
2013
1,01
0,28
2014
0,41
2015
Commercial clients
* Including VAT ** Excluding VAT
4
Privatization and SOE governance legislation is improved Increased transparency of privatization process 5-10 %
Cancelled requirement to sell 5-10% of company shares on local stock exchange prior to privatization Allowed for attracting advisors for privatization of largest SOEs (group G) Banned Russian individuals and companies from participating in privatization
Implementing OECD recommendations in managing SOEs Mandatory supervisory boards (“SBs�) in the largest SOEs Majority of independent members of SBs in all SOEs
Cancelled voting instructions for SB members in all SOEs Mandatory independent audits of largest SOEs (Big 4 + 1 audit company are allowed) Transparent selection process for CEOs of the largest SOEs + market-level remuneration
Developed a concept of national holding company to manage top-20 largest SOEs not subject for privatization in medium term
5