MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TRADE OF UKRAINE
Economic Situation in Ukraine and Perspectives of Development
6 July 2016
The stages of economic development March – IIQ 2014
IIIQ 2014 – IQ 2015
IIQ 2015
The Second half of 2015
Reporting period of 2016
Annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol City
Devaluation shock
Increase NBU discount rate
De-escalation of the conflict
Activation of production in the East. Increasing productive activity
The first inflation shock
The second inflation shock
Introduction of administrative measures in the foreign exchange market
Sovereign debt restructuring
Improved price dynamics in global commodity markets
Logistical problems with the supply of raw materials and export of products
Reduction of real wages
Regulation of banks' liquidity
Easing the NBU administrative measures to the currency market
Further slowing the inflationary wave
Loss of inter-branch relations
Trade restrictions by the Russian Federation
Reduction of the State budget deficit (the introduction of additional import duties)
Slowing the reduction of real wages
Increase in the number of legal entities
Capital outflow
Stop enterprises operating in the East
Slowing inflation wave Resumption of inter-branch relations; Increased industrial activity Improving consumer and business sentiment, credit ratings
Annexation of Crimea, the beginning of the military conflict in the East of Ukraine
The escalation of the military conflict, panic
Tight fiscal policy
Macroeconomic stabilization
Economic growth
6 July 2016
Economic growth Real GDP
Retail trade and Real wage % of the corresponding period of the previous year
6 July 2016
Industry
Industry, world prices for black rolling
Types of industry
% of the respective month of the previous year
% of the corresponding period of the previous year
6 July 2016
Industry and construction
Construction
Industry by major industrial groups
% of the corresponding period of the previous year
% of the corresponding period of the previous year
6 July 2016
Consumer price indices and exchange rate of Hryvnia versus US Dollar
Consumer price indices, %
Consumer price indices and exchange rate of Hryvnia versus US Dollar, %
6 July 2016
Foreign trade Export, Import to EU, %
Export, Import to Russian Federation, %
6 July 2016
Balance of Payments Current account and foreign direct investments
Foreign trade
(according to the NBU)
(according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine)
USD million
USD million
6 July 2016
Investments Capital investment and GDP % of the corresponding period of the previous year
Capital investment by financing sources in I quarter 2016 % to the total volume
6 July 2016
Forecast GDP, CPI
GDP
Consumer price indices, %
6 July 2016
Major macroeconomic indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine for 2016-2017 2014 (report)
2015 (report)
2016 (expectation)
2017 (forecast Sc. 1)
2017 forecast Sc. 2)
1586,9
1979,5
2262,8
2584,9
2574,3
-6,6
-9,9
1,0
3,0
1,5
GDP deflator index, % of the previous year
115,9
138,4
113,2
110,9
112,1
Consumer price indices, December to December of previous year, %
124,9
143,3
114,1
108,1
110,3
annual average
112,1
148,7
114,3
112,7
113,6
Industrial producer price indices, December to December of previous year, %
131,8
125,4
112,9
108,5
111,1
annual average
117,1
136,0
113,1
109,6
111,6
Average monthly wage, adjusted to the consumer price index, percent, year to year , %
-5,4
-18,9
5,1
5,4
4,0
Unemployment rate of population aged 15-70 (by International Labour Organization methodology), percent of the economically active population in respective age group
9,3
9,1
9,0
8,7
8,8
Balance of trade (by balance of payments methodology), USD mln
-4,6
-1,7
-1,8
-2,7
-1,9
Exports of goods and services, year to year, %
-16,9
-27,0
-8,6
8,0
3,3
Imports of goods and services, year to year, %
-26,8
-29,3
-8,1
9,7
3,5
0,3
3,1
3,5
4,5
2,5-3
Nominal GDP at current prices, bln UAH Real GDP (%, annual change)
Foreign direct investment, net gain, USD mln
Comparison of forecasts for Ukraine. 2016: NBU - 1.1%, IMF - 1.5%, World Bank - 1%. 2017: NBU - 3.0%, IMF - 2.5%, World Bank - 2%.
6 July 2016