Economic Situation in Ukraine and Perspectives of Development

MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND TRADE OF UKRAINE

Economic Situation in Ukraine and Perspectives of Development

6 July 2016

The stages of economic development March – IIQ 2014

IIIQ 2014 – IQ 2015

IIQ 2015

The Second half of 2015

Reporting period of 2016

Annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol City

Devaluation shock

Increase NBU discount rate

De-escalation of the conflict

Activation of production in the East. Increasing productive activity

The first inflation shock

The second inflation shock

Introduction of administrative measures in the foreign exchange market

Sovereign debt restructuring

Improved price dynamics in global commodity markets

Logistical problems with the supply of raw materials and export of products

Reduction of real wages

Regulation of banks' liquidity

Easing the NBU administrative measures to the currency market

Further slowing the inflationary wave

Loss of inter-branch relations

Trade restrictions by the Russian Federation

Reduction of the State budget deficit (the introduction of additional import duties)

Slowing the reduction of real wages

Increase in the number of legal entities

Capital outflow

Stop enterprises operating in the East

Slowing inflation wave Resumption of inter-branch relations; Increased industrial activity Improving consumer and business sentiment, credit ratings

Annexation of Crimea, the beginning of the military conflict in the East of Ukraine

The escalation of the military conflict, panic

Tight fiscal policy

Macroeconomic stabilization

Economic growth

6 July 2016

Economic growth Real GDP

Retail trade and Real wage % of the corresponding period of the previous year

6 July 2016

Industry

Industry, world prices for black rolling

Types of industry

% of the respective month of the previous year

% of the corresponding period of the previous year

6 July 2016

Industry and construction

Construction

Industry by major industrial groups

% of the corresponding period of the previous year

% of the corresponding period of the previous year

6 July 2016

Consumer price indices and exchange rate of Hryvnia versus US Dollar

Consumer price indices, %

Consumer price indices and exchange rate of Hryvnia versus US Dollar, %

6 July 2016

Foreign trade Export, Import to EU, %

Export, Import to Russian Federation, %

6 July 2016

Balance of Payments Current account and foreign direct investments

Foreign trade

(according to the NBU)

(according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine)

USD million

USD million

6 July 2016

Investments Capital investment and GDP % of the corresponding period of the previous year

Capital investment by financing sources in I quarter 2016 % to the total volume

6 July 2016

Forecast GDP, CPI

GDP

Consumer price indices, %

6 July 2016

Major macroeconomic indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine for 2016-2017 2014 (report)

2015 (report)

2016 (expectation)

2017 (forecast Sc. 1)

2017 forecast Sc. 2)

1586,9

1979,5

2262,8

2584,9

2574,3

-6,6

-9,9

1,0

3,0

1,5

GDP deflator index, % of the previous year

115,9

138,4

113,2

110,9

112,1

Consumer price indices, December to December of previous year, %

124,9

143,3

114,1

108,1

110,3

annual average

112,1

148,7

114,3

112,7

113,6

Industrial producer price indices, December to December of previous year, %

131,8

125,4

112,9

108,5

111,1

annual average

117,1

136,0

113,1

109,6

111,6

Average monthly wage, adjusted to the consumer price index, percent, year to year , %

-5,4

-18,9

5,1

5,4

4,0

Unemployment rate of population aged 15-70 (by International Labour Organization methodology), percent of the economically active population in respective age group

9,3

9,1

9,0

8,7

8,8

Balance of trade (by balance of payments methodology), USD mln

-4,6

-1,7

-1,8

-2,7

-1,9

Exports of goods and services, year to year, %

-16,9

-27,0

-8,6

8,0

3,3

Imports of goods and services, year to year, %

-26,8

-29,3

-8,1

9,7

3,5

0,3

3,1

3,5

4,5

2,5-3

Nominal GDP at current prices, bln UAH Real GDP (%, annual change)

Foreign direct investment, net gain, USD mln

Comparison of forecasts for Ukraine. 2016: NBU - 1.1%, IMF - 1.5%, World Bank - 1%.

2017: NBU - 3.0%, IMF - 2.5%, World Bank - 2%.

6 July 2016