MISC: Game Changer by MISC

a journal of strategic insight and foresight SPRING 2016 $12 USD $12 CAD Â£7.50 GBP DISPLAY UNTIL 06/30/2016

A Framework for New-Game Strategies P.25

Food & Drink: Ripe for a Rethink P.42

The Collapse of the American Family Ideal P.66

Game Changer

74470 80650

IoT: The Things of Past, Present, and Future P.107

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Publisher

Game Changer

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As publishers of MISC, our aim is to provide a new level of understanding in the fields of insight and foresight. We navigate the blurred boundaries of business, design, and innovation through in-depth articles from some of the preeminent voices of design thinking, technology, customer experience, and strategy. Idea Couture helps organizations navigate and innovate in complex and uncertain environments. We use design thinking methodologies to solve problems and exploit business opportunities – generating new growth, meaningful differentiation, and economic value. By taking an insight and foresight lens to our explorations in MISC, we can thoroughly examine the impacts and opportunities of change in a vast range of industries, allowing businesses to plan for the present and the future.

Co-Publishers

The University of Houston’s Foresight Program offers a Master’s Degree in Foresight, a four-course Graduate Certificate, and a week-long intensive bootcamp overview, each of which prepares students to work with businesses, governments, non-profits, and others to anticipate and prepare for the future. Established in 1974, it is the world’s longest-running degree program exclusively devoted to foresight. Some students enroll to become professional futurists, while others seek to bring a foresight perspective to their current careers. Students have three major areas of focus: understanding the future, mapping the future, and influencing the future, blending theory and practice to prepare graduates to make a difference in the world. uh.edu

Contents Theory, so what? 8 Signal, so what? 10 Insight, so what? 12 Changing the Economic Game 14 Nature: The Ultimate Innovator 18 A Framework for New-Game Strategies 25 Food & Drink: Ripe for a Rethink 42 The True Cost of Design 56 The Collapse of the American Family Ideal 66 Fashion for a Finite Planet 94 IoT: The Things of Past, Present, and Future 107 Create 130

Publisher / Editor-in-Chief Idris Mootee Publishing Advisory Council Dr. Andy Hines Michael Novak Christer Windeløv-Lidzélius Lenore Richards Co-Editor-in-Chief Dr. Morgan Gerard Head of Media & Publications Ashley Perez Karp Managing Editor Esther Rogers Editor Mira Blumenthal Art Director / Design Sali Tabacchi, Inc. Additional Design Nikki Shih Illustration Jennifer Backman Contributing Writers Marina Andreazi Charles Andrew Dr. Emma Aiken-Klar Robert Bolton Dr. Ryan Brotman Laura Dempsey Emily Empel Nathalie Eskenazi Jamie Ferguson Dylan Gordon Paul Hartley Françoise Hernaez Fourrier Michelle Jacobs Dustin Johnston-Jewell Stephanie Kaptein Courtney Lawrence Jan Liska Gil Meyer Maryam Nabavi Farhan Nomani Will Novosedlik Atul Patidar Melissa Richer Julien Roger Lotte Rystedt Nathan Samsonoff Shane Saunderson

Dr. Maya Shapiro Valdis Silins Brandon Smith Geoff Snack Michael Tampilic Allen Tsai Dr. Ted Witek John Wither

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Based in Monterrey, Mexico, CEDIM takes a design, innovation, and business comprehensive approach to education. Design is promoted as a core philosophy, and the faculty consists of active, young, and experienced professionals who have expertise in a broad range of fields. Students are engaged with real and dynamic work projects, and are encouraged to immerse themselves in these active projects in order to participate in the realities of the workforce long before graduation. As a result, students at CEDIM develop an extensive sensitivity to their social, economic, and cultural environment, and go on to make real, pragmatic change in the world of design and innovation.

MISC (ISSN 1925-2129) is published by Idea Couture Inc. Canada 241 Spadina Avenue, Suite 500 Toronto, ON M5T 2E2 United States 649 Front Street, Suite 300 San Francisco, CA 94111

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United Kingdom 85 Great Eastern Street London, EC2A 3HY United Kingdom All Rights Reserved 2016. Email misc@miscmagazine.com The advertising and articles appearing within this publication reflect the opinions and attitudes of their respective authors and not necessarily those of the publisher or editors. We are not to be held accountable for unsolicited manuscripts, artworks or photographs. All material within this magazine is © 2016 Idea Couture Inc.

Kaospilot is an international school of entrepreneurship, creativity, and leadership. It was founded in 1991 as a response to the emerging need for a new type of education – one that could help young people navigate the changing reality of the late 20th century. The program’s main areas of focus are leadership, project management, creative business, and process design. Promoting a hands-on approach, case studies are replaced by immersing students in real projects with real clients. Out of more than 600 graduates, one third have started their own company, NGO, or other similar initiative, the remaining hold management positions. Kaospilot also offers a wide range of courses for professionals in creative leadership and educational design.

ocadu.ca

OCAD University’s Strategic Foresight and Innovation program (SFI) can claim a place at the leading edge of pedagogy and foresight practice. The SFI program is creating a new kind of designer – a strategist who sees the world from a human perspective, rethinks what is possible, and imagines and plans a better future. Recognizing the increasing importance that design thinking can play in positively impacting society, enhancing business success, and managing organizational change, students in the program address the complex dilemmas of contemporary society. This interdisciplinary program interweaves design and foresight methods with social science, systemic design, and business while providing the skills and knowledge to identify critical issues, frame problems, and develop innovative and humane solutions to better implementation plans.

Welcome to the Game Changer Issue

// Few – if any – large organizations are culturally equipped to even start thinking about game changing. //

Everyone is thinking about changing the game. In a basement, a bedroom, a lab, a co-working office space, or a tiny startup, someone, somewhere is just beginning to give shape to an idea they’ve had for a while. It could be a product, a platform, a service, an experience, or a new category of thing-ness that we have not yet envisioned. It could be free or come with a price tag. It could help us do something, learn something, say something, feel something, or otherwise achieve and experience something in a new or better way. What it is and what it will do are not important here. What is important is that once fully formed and let out into the world, it will disrupt, delight, surprise, shock, entice, and engage us all in a way that nothing has before. This is good news for humanity, but it’s bad news for large companies – most of which are running on outdated operating systems, decades old infrastructures, and strategic theories that never should have been activated in the first place. Currently playing in the incremental “me too” innovation zone, many will find themselves a part of the past as they give up game changing opportunity after opportunity to startups. Corporations are at a crossroads. They are being reconstructed, from within and without, by the digital industrial revolution that is already in progress. The strategies and business models that underpin them face deep challenges. Their values, and the values associated with work and the workplace, are increasingly being questioned. Their model of resource use, of “use it and throw it out,” is increasingly running up against constraints of supply costs. New ways of designing and managing businesses, and new business models, are inevitable. We are coming to the end of the easy growth era, during which the global economy has expanded by 3.5% annually since the 80s, and was around 2% during the industrial era. As for labor costs, we are seeing the end of cheap China, we can no longer reap big profits from labor arbitrage and new jobs require unique skills that are in shortages. In the West, one third of our workers will be reaching their retirement age in the next 5-10 years, furthering the global war for talent. There are also increasing fears about the impact of AI technology on employment. When computers are capable of advanced-pattern recognition and run our businesses, when cars drive themselves, drones handles our deliveries, and robots perform intricate tasks, how will that impact the demand for blue-collar labor? If automation eliminates even higher-level jobs (yes, a big if) we need to rethink our

economic system and how benefits of technological advance won’t depend on a handful of companies or individual. CEOs of Fortune 1000 companies are well aware of the challenges. They’ve digested Harvard Business Review, attended executive forums, read the books, and seen the movies on how Bill, Steve, Jeff, Mark, and Elon built successful, game changing companies from their imaginations, their college dorm rooms, or their garages. And they get that the game has changed: the industrial is the technological; the personal is the social; the innovation is the experience; the market is global; the consumer segments don’t really exist; and the business no longer has to be tied to a single category. Whether it’s a more succinct articulation of goals, a quest for a new business model, an acknowledgement that digital strategy is just strategy, or a route to new global markets, so begins the journey towards designing and implementing a strategy suited for today. And that could well be the biggest mistake possible. Why? Because strategy doesn’t mean anything if you can’t execute on it, and few – if any – large organizations are culturally equipped to even start thinking about game changing. Big or small, slow or fast, but always from the CEO down, most need to begin with an organizational transformation, the kind of epistemological, structural, economic, and cultural shift that defines a new purpose, celebrates the power of internal creativity, opens new wellsprings of organizational energy, and is never satisfied with the status quo.

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Theory, so what?

In every issue, we pick a social theory, explain its relevance, and explore its implications on the future of your business, industry, or category.

Performing Our Selves

What The Anthropology of Experience tells us about how to win in the experience economy.

PHOTO: EDEN, JANINE AND JIM

B y d r. E m m a a i k E n - k l a r

“All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players.”

So what? Performance, identity, and the experience economy.

Signals of performance + brand:

These mythic lines from Shakespeare’s As You Like It serve to illustrate a key pillar of The Anthropology of Experience: that identity is created as it is performed. Everyday actions and practices – like taking public transit, attending business meetings, eating meals, or posting a status update on Facebook – are actually public performances that allow us to create our identities by telling stories about ourselves, to ourselves. The Anthropology of Experience is interested in how the little rituals that make up our daily lives help define who we are and how we relate to the cultures and groups we belong to.

Anthropologists aren’t the only ones interested in the relationship between experiences, identity, and culture. In their seminal 1998 piece in the Harvard Business Review, Joseph Pine and James Gilmore introduced the term “experience economy” to explain what they believed to be a new phase of economic value creation. They argued that, since goods and services have become highly commoditized, experience has become an important economic offering that represents a progression of economic value. The idea is that competitive differentiation can no longer be found by making goods or delivering services; staging experiences has become the best way to differentiate a brand from its competitors. But not all experiences are created equal. The Anthropology of Experience tells us that we create our identities through performances where we tell stories about ourselves to each other. If brands want to stage powerful experiences that resonate, these experiences must allow for the creation of meaning on a personal level. Experiences cannot be mass-produced; they must allow for the expression and projection of personal identity. Not unlike the difference between watching a baseball game and playing one, brand experiences that allow us to project our beliefs, values, desires, abilities, and motivations to ourselves and each other will have the most power and resonance.

Twitch: Twitch is a live video streaming platform that turns video games into spectator sports. Recently purchased by Amazon for $1.1 billion, it boasts 100 million visitors a month, including 1.7 million gamers who broadcast themselves playing. By broadcasting their live games, gamers are given the opportunity to perform and enact their identities online.

What if…

What new kinds of categories are born when identity performance is positioned as a business goal or value proposition?

How might open production (such as 3D printing) be leveraged in the creation of experience as value?

What role could supply chain innovation play in the staging of more mobile, malleable, or modular experiences?

What does your brand’s partnership ecosystem look like, and how might these relationships be used to cultivate identity-building experiences for your customers? ////

As experience becomes the standard currency for brands and businesses, how will they continue to differentiate their offerings? How well prepared is your business or brand in the experience game?

IfOnly: IfOnly is a San Francisco-based startup that uses a technology platform to create a marketplace for one-of-a-kind experiences. Its rapid growth is a testament to the growing market for experiences over things. IfOnly is betting that there are enough people who would rather pay for fabulous experiences than fabulous things. Nike x Monocle Running Guide: This magazine insert, created in partnership by Nike and Monocle, presents a curated set of experiences for runners, customized by city. Each city guide includes maps and places of interest, and serves as a stage for Nike to deliver an immersive experience. By participating in these experiences, runners are creating stories about themselves, enacting their identities as cosmopolitan athletes, and are using the stage that Nike built to mount their productions.

Dr. Emma Aiken-Klar is VP, insights at Idea Couture.

Signal, so what?

In every issue, we highlight a weak signal and explore its possibilities and ramifications on the future of your business, and how to better prepare for it.

Blockchain Enabled Hardware: The Ethereum Computer by Jamie Ferguson

Overview

So what?

Back in 2014, the IBM Institute for Business Value made the case that centralized approaches to building an Internet of Things (IoT) would be expensive, lack privacy, and would not allow for business model endurance. Rather, the proliferation of smart devices that comprise the IoT should require data, and devices should be built to be a radically lower price point and account for the user’s privacy and autonomy.

IoT is a network of devices capable of self-maintaining, like home appliances that are able to signal operational problems, order parts, and retrieve software updates on their own. These devices might even communicate with other devices to facilitate power bartering and energy consumption. In such a scenario, every device and system is a point of transaction and economic value creation for owners and users, and is able to engage in multiple markets (financial and non-financial) or react to changes in markets. Setting up an iTunes-like digital goods store or making any IoT hardware rentable – from locks to 3D printers – requires devices and products to enter into contractual agreements that will define the way they transact. These may be simple agreements of action or control, financial agreements involving payments or loans, or they will allow devices to barter resources and services. The fruition of consumer hardware devices, like the Ethereum Computer or the 21 Bitcoin Computer, allow people to buy and sell their digital services, and to define and create the secure contracts necessary for these transactions. The 21 Bitcoin Computer admits the technology is ultimately just a tool, and their long-term goal is to return economic power to the individual. Smart objects, smart contracts, smart people.

Anticipated sometime in 2017, the Ethereum Computer is a home server hardware setup to manage identity, funds, and personal information with strong encryption and permission control. Ethereum is a protocol for smart contracts that allows people to store any kind of data along with an agreement about how that data will be updated. The framework is intended to allow a network of peers to administer their own user-created contracts in the absence of any central authority. These smart contracts are applications that run as programmed, without downtime, censorship, fraud, or third party interference.

PHOTO: ETHEREUM

What if… Personal

Brand

Organizational

Although still only primarily accessible to programmers, the Ethereum Computer aims to be in as many hands as possible soon. Rent your flat, program your marriage contract, direct your sensor data – the platform can allow not only companies and institutions, but also individuals, to transfer and record all kinds of assets, not just digital currency, without an intermediary. Consider the granularity and value of sensor data that can be captured from everyday appliances; self-directed data can leverage the same process used to order spare parts in order to purchase detergent for a washing machine at a better price and regular frequency, from a supplier that is optimized by the individual. What data do you currently generate and own that is managed by external arbiters?

Some people compare the change-impact of blockchain technology to the internet. The internet required an enormous hardware infrastructure build before its potential as a software platform could be realized. The business models that will guide private and autonomous solutions will need to embrace efficient digital economies and create collaborative value, all while creating improved products and user experiences. What implicit contracts can brands reimagine – loyalty programs, property titles and land records, syndicated loans, etc. – and what kind of implications does this have on physical infrastructures?

Uber, one of the ultimate contemporary examples of resource brokerage, have completely changed how we employ underused resources, and cars are just one of many such redundancies. Ethereum lead designer Alex Van de Sande says, “Bitcoin allows you to keep the money of the organization on the blockchain; what Ethereum does is allow you to keep the whole organization on the blockchain.” What types of contractual considerations will be required for self-allocating resources? ////

Jamie Ferguson is a design & foresight strategist at Idea Couture.

Insight, so what?

In every issue, we explore a topic through an anthropological lens in order to better understand its impacts on a wide range of industries.

B y D r. M o r g a n g e r a r D

When anthropologist Victor Turner began writing about the three stages of the ritual process and the role of the middle stage in facilitating experiences of personal, social, and cultural transformation, he was inspired, in part, by the turmoil and transition of the late 1960s. Today, we are living in what feels like another period of uncertainty. Sure, we have Google, Netflix, Twitter, wearables, self-driving cars, and the exploits of the Kardashian-West clan to help maintain our confidence in the stability of the present and the promise of tomorrow. But we are worried. Or, at the very least, we are wondering.

In the last year or so, we have watched men become women, citizens become enemies, neighbors kill neighbors, police reveal dirty secrets, and reality TV stars lead in the polls for President of the United States. Add to this global, cultural news feed of uncertainty the turmoil and transitions experienced every day by people around the world – the birth of a child, life as a teenager, becoming an adult, the death of a loved one – and the insight that emerges is of liminality. From the Latin word limen, meaning “a threshold,” liminality refers to a state of ambiguity or disorientation in which people find themselves temporarily suspended in and between physical, social, spiritual, and personal states. With the known world and all of its order suspended, experiences of

PHOTO: PRODONKEYHOTEY

Enter The Liminal Zone

liminality – like a death, a divorce, or a marriage – are, according to Turner, neither here nor there, now or then, until the individual makes a transformation or a transition into a new social and/or personal state. First coined in 1909 by the French folklorist and ethnographer Arnold van Gennep, the concept of liminality was developed by Turner in the late 1960s as a model to explain how the middle phase of rituals helps people make transitions from one status or stage in life to another. According to him, this middle phase is “a realm of pure possibility whence novel configurations of ideas and relations may arise.” It is a place, a time, and an experience of uncertainty where fear accompanies excitement, where who you are is not who you will be, and where creativity and transformation beckon. It can be an underworld, a netherworld, or a world between worlds where everything is not what it seems. It can be a scary place filled with characters, energies, and ideas that slow your progress towards transformation. But it can also be a thrilling place, because knowing you are about to move from an old state to a new state and become somehow new and transformed is really the only way that we grow as humans. Moments of change and personal growth should be of great interest to anyone working in the field of innovation. Whatever the critical transitional experience is, where people are experiencing uncertainty, worry, fear, and maybe excitement, such moments represent the greatest opportunities for brands to practice empathy, communicate with consumers, and see their way to what will be the most valuable product or service ideas coming to market. Whether it’s the power of an insight that transforms a company’s understanding of how some patients live everyday as a liminal day between normal/abnormal and healthy/ill, the a-ha moment that dawns on employees in the middle of an organizational transformation project when they recognize their own liminality, or the responsibility that comes from acting as a guide or mentor to help customers navigate their way through tough and confusing times, liminality – for anyone with their eye on either today’s zeitgeist or every day’s humanity – should be a word on every executive’s lips. //// Dr. Morgan Gerard is chief resident storyteller at Idea Couture.

Changing the Economic Game:

By will novoseDlik

In today’s increasingly polarized economic and political environment, to question the capitalist narrative is like challenging the Roman Catholic Church at the height of the Spanish Inquisition. These days, no one will burn you at the stake, but you stand a good chance of being labeled by neoliberals as a heretic, an apostate, a communist, an idiot – or all of the above. Whether you question the economic fundamentals of capitalism or the future of fossil fuel dependency, defenders almost always resort to the convenience of binary opposites: if you’re not a capitalist, you’re a communist; if you care about the environment, you don’t care about jobs; if you don’t believe in God, you’re in league with the Devil. When it comes to economics, this rigid binary thinking is being challenged by a perfect storm of technological and ecological forces. The emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT), the transition from carbon-based energy to renewable energy, and the continuing proliferation of online communications are converging to disrupt the economic foundations of capitalism as we know it.

Social theorist and futurist Jeremy Rifkin calls it the near-zero marginal cost society. Sharing innovator Rachel Botsman calls it the collaborative economy. Robin Chase, cofounder of Zipcar, calls it Peers Inc. However they label it, these thinkers have all noticed the emergence of a new socioeconomic infrastructure in which competition and scarcity are giving way to collaboration and abundance. All three perspectives eschew the black-and-white, either/or mindset of conventional economic thinking in favor of a more nuanced, pluralistic model of how we are organizing economic activity. None of these writers speak in terms of overthrowing capitalism; they merely agree that capitalism will not be the dominant economic paradigm in the future, and that the old capitalist vs. socialist dialectic will become irrelevant. The most high profile apologist for these ideas is Rifkin, whose recent books (The Third Industrial Revolution and The Zero Marginal Cost Society) represent the most thorough exploration of what is happening. His basic thesis is that, “the inherent dynamism of competitive markets is bringing costs so far down that many goods and services are becoming nearly free, abundant, and no longer subject to market forces.” It’s as if we’re “Napster-izing” the entire economy.

PHOTO: JACINTA LLUCH VALERO

From a Market Economy to a Human Economy

Changing the Narrative

Ownership vs. Access

Everyone vs. Everything

Mean vs. Green

As Rifkin reminds us in The Zero Marginal Cost Society, a paradigm’s narrative power rests on its all-encompassing description of reality. Once accepted, “it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to question its central assumptions, which appear to reflect the natural order of things.” At the same time, not to question them leads to a “festering of inconsistencies that pile up until a tipping point is reached where the existing paradigm is torn apart and replaced with a new explanatory paradigm better able to martial the anomalies, insights, and new developments into a comprehensive new narrative.” Take the narrative of capitalism. Private ownership is as fundamental to the narrative of free market capitalism as water is to fish. We can thank Enlightenment philosopher John Locke for that. His seminal work, Two Treatises of Government, claimed that men have “natural” rights to life, liberty, and property. For Locke, the acquiring of goods was fundamental to democracy, and the political condition of human life was based on the production of private property. Thus, he established the ideological pillars of the capitalist narrative – freedom, private property, and market exchange – principles we now consider as inevitable and natural as the air we breathe. Since we have, over the last 300 years, built our entire legal and political infrastructure around them, we’ve made these principles sacrosanct, and therefore unimpeachable. The foundations of this narrative are now being challenged in several ways.

There are plenty of examples in which supply and demand are being matched by the sharing of underused assets (Airbnb), or by the reinvention of traditional market behaviors – renting, lending, swapping, sharing, bartering, and gifting (Zipcar), or by platforms that directly match customer needs with providers to immediately deliver goods and services (Uber). What they all reveal is a shift from private ownership to shared access. Using the same technology by which we share information and content, we are sharing, swapping, lending, bartering, and renting real world assets. This is the core of the new economic paradigm: rather than acting as consumers of goods being manufactured and distributed by large, centralized, vertically integrated organizations, the collaborative economy is turning us into “prosumers” – producers of goods and services that can be distributed horizontally across decentralized networks and marketplaces. Robin Chase sums it up thusly: “Enabled by new technology, a revolution is taking place inside capitalism as we reimagine the role of consumers, producers, and even ownership. I call this new paradigm ‘Peers Inc’: a transformation of the relationship between companies and people. Peers Inc is leading the transition from industrial capitalism to the collaborative economy.”

Aiding this transition is the emergence of the IoT, which Rifkin hails as a game changing platform that enables an emerging “collaborative commons” to flourish alongside the capitalist market. IoT will connect everybody to everything, enabled by the rapid proliferation of sensors (50 billion by 2020) attached to natural resources, production lines, the electricity grid, logistics networks, homes, offices, stores, vehicles, and appliances. How much of a game changer is this likely to be? In a 2013 paper entitled The Internet of Everything for Cities, Cisco predicted that by 2022, IoT will generate $14.4 billion in savings and revenue. In doing so, it will continue the process of driving products and services to near-zero marginal cost. The platform for economic exchange is moving from a closed, competitive, corporate system built on proprietary information and intellectual property, to an open, collaborative, connected community built on shared access to everything.

Another tipping point is the transition to renewable energy. Business and industry have always operated in an ecological vacuum, regarding the biosphere as external to economic activity. The reality is that all economic activity harnesses matter and energy from the biosphere and transforms it into goods and services. The process of creating such economic value has lead to a massive release of carbon dioxide emissions that is destroying the very biosphere from which we have drawn resources in the first place. The resulting climate change is driving investments in renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and hydro. At the same time, according to Rifkin, the harvesting technology for solar and wind power is predicted to be as cheap as mobile phones and laptops within 15 years. If the efficiency of solar cells continues at its current pace, solar energy will be as cheap as today’s retail energy price by 2020, and half the price of coal by 2030. All this points to a future in which “hundreds of millions of people will produce their own renewable energy in homes, offices, and factories, and share green electricity with each other on an Energy Internet just as we now generate and share information online.”

// Perhaps the biggest disruption unleashed by the emerging collaborative economy is its prioritization of the community over the individual. //

Money vs. Trust Perhaps the biggest disruption unleashed by the emerging collaborative economy is its prioritization of the community over the individual. In capitalism, as set forth by Enlightenment philosopher Adam Smith in his landmark tome The Wealth of Nations, economic prosperity is driven by self-interest and competition. This principle has animated the rise of free market neoliberalism over the last 30 years, having inspired both the Chicago School of Milton Friedman and the market deregulation launched by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. Indeed, it is said that Thatcher carried a copy of Wealth of Nations in her handbag wherever she went. The collaborative economy, enabled by exponential technological change, upends Thatcher’s claim that “there is no such thing as society; there are only individuals and families.” It is enabling small companies and individuals to make and share goods and services in ways that bypass the classic twentieth century industrial value chain. And since they will be doing that at little or no marginal cost, money is no longer the only motivator of economic activity. In a recent Fast Company article, Rachel Botsman writes: “The sharing economy is uniquely placed to reflect our desire as human beings to connect directly and to feel a part of community larger than our individual selves, which serves a purpose far higher than simply the trading of stuff, space, and talents.”

Toward a Human Economy By taking back the economic power currently enjoyed by highly centralized, competitive enterprises and distributing it across decentralized, collaborative platforms of exchange, we are moving from the monopolization to the democratization of economic activity. Democratization and collaboration are built on trust, and as such, says Chase: “What distinguishes and transforms these activities is that platforms connect, organize, aggregate, and empower the participating peers.” In this scenario, the most important currency is social, not financial.

Capitalism has had a good run. But in its relentless drive for operational efficiency and productivity, it has in fact sown the seeds of its own transformation. The profit motive that funded everything from steam power to the internet and made a handful of individuals unimaginably wealthy is inadvertently giving agency to a far broader community of digitally savvy “prosumers.” A group that has little interest in competing for scarcity, and would rather collaborate in the creation of abundance. That is not to say that capitalism is over. As Rifkin wisely reminds us, large enterprise will still be around to aggregate the network solutions and services upon which the collaborative economy will operate. There will still be a market for premium and luxury goods and services, albeit a small one. But instead of a small collaborative economy operating on the fringes of capitalism, it will be capitalism that operates on the fringes of the collaborative economy. The market economy will give way to the human economy, with economics no longer operating in a fictitious vacuum called the marketplace, but consciously and sustainably integrated with the warp and woof of the biosphere. //// Will Novosedlik is AVP, head of growth partnerships at Idea Couture.

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Nature: The Ultimate Innovator

// He must be a dull man who can examine the exquisite structure of a comb, so beautifully adapted to its end, without enthusiastic admiration. // Charles Darwin, On the Origin of Species By Dustin Johnston-Jewell

As our world becomes increasingly complex with rates of change continuing to intensify, we business thinkers and doers turn to the tools of other disciplines – combining and utilizing them in order to bring about adaptation and innovation. Even business leaders living under the proverbial rock can no longer ignore the adoption of design methods and mindsets into the business mainstream. Specifically, the rationale behind using design practices, such as rapid prototyping, divergence followed by convergence, and strategic foresight are being touted as essential for adaption to an increasingly chaotic and evolving environment if one is to gain business success. This continuing embracement of design into business did not arise purely out of goodwill. Archaic business thinking has been proven flawed time and again. Organizations with huge amounts of power, human capacity, and capability have stalled and stuttered as a result of their lack of ability to adapt, to

innovate. The missed opportunity to embrace change, adaptation, and innovation is often cited as a primary factor in a concoction of error that has resulted in large systemic corporate failure. Think General Motors, Blockbuster, or Kodak. This point is made most notably in Clay Christensen’s The Innovator’s Dilemma, and its sequel, The Innovator’s Solution. Other notable authors, such as Roger Martin (The Design of Business), and Eric Ries (The Lean Startup), have acted as proponents to design principles within business practice to foster innovation as a path back to success. For example, in The Lean Startup, which explores the power of iteration and rapid prototyping, the case in point is that Intuit – a software company that uses hundreds of tests to determine if a new product, design, platform, or experience will be successful with its users prior to a full launch – perfectly illustrates the use of design principles bettering business outcomes. Using rapid prototyping methods permits Intuit to avoid

going all-in and risk losing a much larger bet. Instead, the company constantly tests and experiments, receiving feedback for continuous improvement and adaptation. It then incorporates this feedback in many generations of small improvements, rather than a total overhaul. Intuit is far from being the only example of a relatively common design principle – rapid prototyping, in this case – being applied within the business context. The appetite to apply design principles has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, with a major shift in acceptance and interest coming in the past 10 years thanks to, among other factors, the aforementioned authors. To say that contemporary business practice is rightfully being influenced by the design discipline is on the mark. However, if business is being influenced by design, then what is influencing design itself? Without a doubt, design’s influences are widespread and incredibly diverse – an integral factor for design practice. However, throughout history, arguably one of the greatest influencers of design in function and form has been the natural world. This is not by happenstance. Despite humanity’s attempt to control, manipulate, and engineer the natural world, we are very much a part of it, and it is very much a part of us. Denis Dutton makes the point in his TED Talk, “A Darwinian Theory of Beauty,” that we are intrinsically attracted to the natural world as part of our evolutionarily programmed genetic constitution. We may perceive that beauty is in the eye of the beholder, when in fact, we all share common aspects of what we find

beautiful, as evolution has passed on a bias towards beauty that will permit an increased probability of forwarding on our genetic code to the next generation. With this in mind, it comes as no surprise that design – and for that matter engineering, science, and art – are all profoundly, and often obviously, influenced by the natural world. Biomimicry, the use of biological systems as models for the design and engineering of products and materials, is a well-known example. Game changing products such as Velcro (mimicking the hooked seed-spreading mechanism of burrs), Speedo’s Fastskin swimsuit (spawned by a shark skin’s microtriangular scale shape, which reduces drag), or wind turbine design (inspired by the humpback whale’s fin bumps for efficiency in fluids), have been influenced by the natural world to promote value creation that we find aesthetic, ergonometric, functional, and more efficient. Moreover, innumerable examples of widely varying characteristics have been influenced by nature. From the world renowned architecture of Antoni Gaudí or Frank Gehry, to painted masterpieces by Claude Monet or Vincent van Gogh, the influence of nature is abound. If many other disciplines are influenced by nature, perhaps it’s time for business practitioners to also actively seek inspiration from the natural world – and with the adoption of design into business practice, this would be the natural next step. As design is deeply influenced by nature, and business is influenced by design, the espousal of design principles into business is leading to

the inevitable coalescence of business having influence from natural systems. Despite often being established as two opposing poles on a spectrum, business and nature have more in common than we tend to think. Like the natural world, business in and of itself is made up of systems. Many acts of business include creating or repairing systems that deliver products or services in dynamic and changing circumstances. There are endless examples of perfectly adapting, evolving systems just outside the window. As with most prominent influences, this is already occurring in some forward thinking organizations. A notable example is the use of ant colony optimization algorithms. Specifically, Ruud Schoonderwoerd and his colleagues described how load balancing in telecommunication networks – a costly business problem for telecommunications providers – can be modeled after the trail-laying abilities of ants to create a more effective telecommunications network with reduced lost calls. More than just ants, the study of social animals – from bats and bees, to birds, and even humans – has led to the exploration of swarm intelligence. Their abilities to selforganize and display flexibility, adaptability, and robustness in large numbers has contributed to providing solutions to many real world business problems, similar to those faced by the telecommunications industry, including the famous traveling salesman problem. Looking to the natural world more frequently for inspiration and solutions can offer great

opportunities for the challenges that face us in both design and business. And why wouldn’t we? The natural world has had 3.5 billion years of rapid prototyping to adapt to almost every environment discovered. If we look back to the Intuit example, one can closely analogize its many experiments and adaptations to that of the fundamental building blocks and process of life, as we know it: DNA and evolution. Modifications in the genetic code of generations of offspring allow for adaptations that favor increased fitness and survivability in various environments. In turn, this increases the probability that the surviving organism’s DNA will be passed down to future generations, amplifying the number of offspring with favorable characteristics. Metaphorically, this is continuous trial and error, constant experimentation on a large, long-term scale that permits increasing adaption to an environment – and systems of adaptation are systems of innovation. It seems that the natural world has already solved almost every problem imaginable – or at least is constantly working on a solution. It would do us good to take more inspiration from the world around us as we may find a revelation to our most pressing challenges, and catalyze innovative new thinking. Because, more often than not, nature has a way – or as Jeff Goldblum’s character notes in Jurassic Park, “Life, uh, finds a way.” ////

Dustin Johnston-Jewell is an innovation strategist at Idea Couture.

// Generations, just like the individuals who populate them, have an aging process. //

The Time Gap: Rushing to judgment

B y D r. M aya s h a p i r o

We want it: the information that helps us draw hard lines around a generation and determine who they are, what they value, where they go for fun, and how they shop. Then we want more: data that uncovers their favorite snack foods, how much they get in allowance, and what their preferred screen size is for mobile devices. This desire to define by age group can make a lot of sense, since focusing on “The Generation” – a group of individuals whose commonality stems from the fact that they share major events and social contexts – offers a fresh and useful take on market segmentation. Aware of the flaws in focusing on solely gender, ethnicity, or class in advertising, brands have increasingly turned their focus to Boomers, Millennials, and now, the still-elusive and highly anticipated Generation Z – those born from around the mid-to-late nineties. But there may be some gaps in our understanding of what a generation is, what we can expect of it, and when we can draw conclusions about it – gaps that are especially relevant as businesses rush to identify and develop strategies for marketing to Gen Z. The following identifies these gaps, explains the possible missteps in ignoring them, and offers a point of departure that can put us on the right path to knowing some key things about this emerging generation.

Generations, just like the individuals who populate them, have an aging process. They grow and mature over time in ways that help themselves and the people around them identify their patterns and impacts. It is, therefore, impossible to know everything about a generation in the very early stages of its development and self-definition. Equally misguided are attempts to compare two generations at different points in their processes – a misstep that amounts to comparing apples to apple trees. For example, our notion of Gen Z as pragmatic and resourceful is a sensible reading of their response to the unpredictable economic context in which they were raised. But we can’t be sure just yet if this pragmatism will lead Gen Z to exhibit industriousness or hopelessness in the workplace – or perhaps both. Our understanding of Millennials, not to mention Boomers and Gen X, is still developing, but these groups no doubt benefit from the perspective and hindsight that a few years or decades can provide. Point of departure: Gen Z is in a reactionary phase of identity construction, exploring themselves through opposition to the generations that have come before them. Paying attention to what they reject and how they apply their sense of skepticism – from notions of beauty to approaches to social networking – will give us good clues into what will become their foundational beliefs and future aspirations. PHOTO: JUSTINE REYES

Mind the Gaps Recognizing obstacles and avoiding missteps in the rush to define Gen Z

The Space Gap: Ignoring a global/local balance

The Life Stage Gap: Confusing moments in time with long-term patterns

Gen Z is much more international, and therefore much larger in number, than any generation that has come before it. While teenagers in New York and New Delhi have not typically been considered subject to the same major events and social contexts (ever wonder why we never talk about Indian Baby Boomers?), many of these individuals are now part of a far more coherent group, having collectively seen footage of the fall of the Twin Towers, anticipated the release of a new smartphone, or had a meal at McDonald’s. The global reach of multinational corporations, as well the consumer products, foods, and media that they generate and promote, has made it necessary to think of generations beyond the local context. Of course, the significance of local events and touch points hasn’t disappeared, nor have cultural and economic conditions that might encourage Indian and American teenagers to approach the world in different ways.

Because of the rush towards judgment, and our reluctance to accept generational development as dynamic and ever-changing, we also fall into the trap of defining generations by single moments in time. These moments are often more demonstrative of life stages than they are of patterns that define an entire generation. When we think of Gen Xers as loners and Millennials as gluttons for attention, we are denying the very real changes in those generations that emerged when they moved out of young adulthood and into other phases of life. As it turns out, middle-aged members of Gen X have built strong community institutions, while Millennial parents report being terrified of their young children over-exposing themselves on social media. For their part, Gen Z has being lauded as a generation of cosmopolitan sophisticates. Some ethnographic work, however, explores their desire to move inward as they grow into adulthood, living in places that are comfortable and calm instead of flashy.

Point of departure: Gen Z is a truly global generation, so much so that for them, the term globalization is already a tired cliché. Carefully watching the impact of events and cultural moments that resonate around the world (like the 2009 death of pop star Michael Jackson), while also noting the significance of events that resonated on a more local scale (the sudden 2013 death of Bollywood star Abir Goswami) provides an important framework for considering what might matter to members of Gen Z, and how that may be the same or different across space.

Point of departure: Gen Z is a generation that is subject to rapid change in their external environment. The glut of information to which they are consistently exposed has given them no choice but to remain fluid and open to change. Marketers should mirror this approach, acknowledging that research can never be timeless and must be refreshed and reframed, particularly as generations grow, change, and move through life’s various stages. //// Dr. Maya Shapiro is a resident anthropologist at Idea Couture.

By Courtney LawrenCe

n the field of innovation, we often thin that big ideas with groundbrea ing results ta e a lot of effort and many hours of strategi ing, ideating, and sensema ing. We also get caught in the trap of thin ing that game changing disruption re uires a charismatic or dynamic leader to spearhead these efforts. owever, impactful change can come uite easily and often unexpectedly.

In many organizations, there are leaders or individuals that act as “quiet revolutionaries,” and many times they don’t even realize it. Subtly, through their perceptivity and reflectivity, they notice when people are settling for less than what is actually possible or are steering away from communal benefits. Through their authenticity and the behavioral examples they set, these individuals often make waves throughout a business – and it’s often the small or unexpected changes that make the biggest impact.

PHOTO: OFFICIAL US NAVY

Subtle Gestures Big Gains

Passion-Fuelled Change

A Human Touch

Getting Out of the Way

A recent example of this is Lakeland Health, a health system that encompasses several hospitals, medical practices, and clinics. It has about 4,000 associates and takes in nearly $500 million per year. In early 2015, newly appointed CEO Loren Hamel became aware that, when it came to patient satisfaction, Lakeland was falling behind, with scores between the 25th and 50th percentile. Hamel wondered how Lakeland could reinvent the experience of healthcare for its patients. Lakeland was already applying best practices and didn’t have the ability to make a big investment in additional staff or patient amenities. He took a few weeks for reflection, and, after contemplating the issue, wondered what would happen if the associations brought their hearts to work, as well as their professional skills. Following this period, Hamel rented out cinemas across three cities and held more than 20 kick-off events to bring the theme of “Bring Your Heart to Work” to life. The message was simple and the goal was clear: getting into the 90th percentile in 90 days by making sure everyone who interacts with a patient is approaching them with deep care. He didn’t give employees a script or training program, but instead challenged them: “Every time you interact with a patient, tell them who you are, what you’re there to do, and share a heartfelt why.” Over the next 90 days, Hamel did rounds 120 times to see how things were going and to see if staff were truly connecting with their patients. With encouragement and dedication, over the course of a few months, more than 6,000 stories of heartfelt connections were celebrated across Lakeland. Within 90 days, they were at the 95th percentile for the first time in their history. In this example, “care” became routine for staff. Hamel had to shake things up by re-empowering his employees. It was not through a massive brainstorming session or huge financial investment that change came; it was through his passion and ability to sit back and reflect on the situation. This simple shift in mindset meant the health system was able to tell a new story, and therefore entirely transform the way it operated as a business.

We often see leaders like this involved in social movements. Change happens when someone has the courage to do something from the conviction that it will benefit others. This kind of change is not only advantageous internally in an organization, but it can also be incorporated into the way a business impacts its community. A small-scale example of this is seen with P.B. Jams, an Oklahoma City sandwich shop. In the spring of 2015, Ashley Jiron noticed that someone had been going through the shop’s garbage looking for food. Instead of calling the authorities, she placed a poster on the door addressed to that anonymous individual, inviting them in during operating hours for “a classic PB&J, fresh veggies, and a cup of water at no charge.” A photo of this sign soon went viral, and the shop has received countless messages of appreciation from customers on their social media channels. The business has seen a significant increase in sales since. Additionally, P.B. Jams has launched a #sharethenuts campaign, that allows customers to prepay for someone’s meal and leave a Post-It on the wall for whoever needs it. For a small business, this had a large effect on its customers, community, and its bottom-line. No matter the size, businesses are not exempt from the power of human emotion to affect change. Subtly, acts of kindness make a big difference.

There are other ways to subtly inspire change. To be a quiet revolutionary sometimes means not actively doing or creating something, but instead making a simple decision to let go of the need to be in charge. This is best seen in the example of US submarine captain David Marquet, who took responsibility for a ship with the poorest levels of performance and the highest crew turnover. He spent a couple of weeks observing the crew in order to learn how to turn these results around. One day, Marquet decided to run a drill to simulate a fault with the reactor. He generated a sense of urgency by increasing the speed of travel. At a crucial moment in the drill, he shouted an order – “ahead two thirds” – and the officer on deck repeated the order to the helmsman below. Nothing happened. On the floor, Marquet noticed that the helmsman looked uncomfortable, but still did nothing. Finally, when asked what was wrong, the helmsman said there was no two thirds in the electric propulsion mode, unlike other submarines. The officer admitted that he repeated the order, knowing it was wrong. Realizing that in this hierarchical model his crew was simply taking orders and not thinking for themselves, Marquet decided to move authority into the hands of those who have the information. Giving orders, he realized, was making his crew into obedient yes men, to the detriment of the ship. He replaced instructions with intent, giving control of the ship to his men. He created new leaders through one simple decision. The change that he brought around was, once again, not something he spent hours planning in a boardroom. Instead, it came from a momentary observation, common sense, and a desire to set the bar higher. His ship soon achieved the highest retention and operational standings in the navy.

// No matter the size, businesses are not exempt from the power of human emotion to affect change. //

Not With a Bang To be a subtle game changer means not settling for the status quo or rationalizing away a situation. Whether it is a hungry individual in the community or a crew operating on autopilot, in all three examples, change came from a momentary shift where individuals saw the need to get out of ruts and routines by using the powers of empathy, reflectivity, and imagination. Who says you need to go out with a bang? //// Courtney Lawrence is a senior resident anthropologist at Idea Couture.

A Framework for New-Game Strategies

Are you ready to play? By iDris Mootee

PHOTO: SASHA THE OKAY PHOTOGRAPHER

What is a game changer? Is it an existing player or a new entrant attempting to redefine the rules and economics of an industry, or is it inventing a new category or industry altogether? Perhaps it’s companies that are eager to switch up and develop innovative business strategies in order to avoid traditional modes of competition. Regardless, the goal is simple: to capture a larger share of the economic pie, or create an even bigger pie. But not all game changing strategies are the same.

A new-game strategy often involves more than just a new cost curve or serving a super niche segment – although that could also be the case. More often than not, a strategy is the result of strategic foresight and game theories coming together. However, focusing too much on changing the game itself can have repercussions. Companies typically make two types of mistakes: They get too caught up in technological innovation, particularly developing new technologies and new products, and forget about the users. Or, they get too obsessed with competing in the market share in any given product market, and put too much emphasis on a marketing push or managing pricing. Although these are not exactly bad things – for business is all about innovation and purely aiming for the largest market share – both could be damaging if the focus is on the wrong indicator of success at the wrong time. Product innovation often leads to a strong internal focus, and is thus too fixated on pursuing technical development and lack consideration on commercialization and the bigger strategy needed. As a result, many technologically innovative firms fail to bring their products successfully to market, and the ones that do fail to sustain market momentum. Every organization should have an innovation strategy (or philosophy) that guides the strategic postures and implementation of its tactics.

Aiming to Dominate Securing a Foothold

Industry Behavior

A game changing strategy, in most cases, is about entry into a market with the intent of subsequent market domination. The path to domination is a not a straight line. This framework allows the companies to choose the new game’s battlefield and determine the mode of attack. The strategic matrix has been divided into quadrants, and each quadrant associates with a prototype strategy:

Tesla

Uber

Nest

Oculus

Same Value Proposition

New Value Proposition

// A strategy is the result of strategic foresight and game theories coming together. //

Human Behavior

Tesla Same Value Proposition / Aiming to Dominate

Nest Same Value Proposition / Securing a Foothold

Oculus New Value Proposition / Securing a Foothold

Uber New Value Proposition / Aiming to Dominate

Firms in this quadrant believe that a new-game strategy can transform an existing industry with a new product design or technology. The end benefit is the same, but there are drastically different ways to deliver on those benefits. Sometimes it might even require building an entirely new ecosystem. The main characteristic of this new game is to aim for market dominance. Companies playing in this quadrant are typically positioned as next category and priced at a premium, taking years to improve the cost curve. However, they realize the cost of entry is very high from the beginning and are willing to take the risk. The best example for this quadrant is Tesla. It’s not the first electric vehicle being designed or made available in the market, but it is aiming to shake up the automotive world with its ultimate goal: to rid the world of gasoline-powered cars – or, to strategically replace the current market leaders. To make their product this viable, they not only have to solve battery design problems, but also need to roll out thousands of “supercharging” stations around the world to solve issues around range, so people can drive 270 kilometers after 30 minutes of rapid charging. And even 30 minutes is too long for many drivers. Tesla will also need to open up its patents to the competition, something it has hinted at strongly. They understand that the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) and American National Standards Institute (ANSI) would never standardize on a single company’s proprietary designs. It was a lesson the industry was taught 40 years ago by Hewlett-Packard, when it turned over its Interface Bus design to the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). The result was the IEEE 488 standard, which enables us to connect our computers to printers. On the road to dominance, Tesla’s next step is to make similarly ambitious tradeoffs.

Firms in this quadrant follow a shredder strategy and seek to gain some competitive advantages selectively by focusing on innovation over a defined need. It’s not necessarily a newly discovered unmet need, but something uniquely catered to particular customer segments. Brands can choose to accomplish this by focusing on unique product design, cool features, or unmatched customer service. It’s mostly a single product/category play. The idea is to introduce a new product that offers the same benefit as the existing one, so it will have immediate appeal to the mass market. Unlike other innovative products, there is no concern for educating consumers. This strategy, however, implies that it is difficult, or even impossible, to dominate the market, as there will be plenty of competition due to the low barrier to entry. Often, design, rather than technology, is the winning factor. One example is Nest; it is truly innovative, it redefined what a smoke detector or thermostat should look like, and linking to the internet provided new functionalities. However, it is not likely that Nest will dominate the market and is instead an entry point for horizontal extension.

This quadrant is where the risks are the highest – and so is the potential return. A company that takes this approach expects to change the entire marketplace or industry and is poised for complete market dominance by owning a standard. The business models are usually unclear, and the investment is very intensive and requires some deep pockets (Google’s Android is an example). Such power stems from killer applications, control of industry standards, dominant distribution channels, and proprietary products that have limited competition and no close substitutes – for example, Oculus. The virtual reality (VR) company that was acquired by Facebook sees the true potential beyond gaming. “This is just the start. After games, we’e going to make Oculus a platform for many other experiences,” Zuckerberg has stated. “Imagine enjoying a court-side seat at a game, studying in a classroom of students and teachers all over the world, or consulting with a doctor face-to-face – just by putting on goggles in your home.” In other words, Facebook hopes that developers will create lots of non-gaming experiences for Oculus too, with social networking (and, ultimately, advertising) built in. Having a strong foothold is important, because how the industry will evolve and how fast the consumer adoption and demand will pick up is unknown. VR is set to be the biggest opportunity in the tech industry since the smartphone, and it isn’t even here yet. Despite this, five huge tech firms are already playing the arms race: Sony’s Morpheus, Microsoft HoloLens, HTC Vive, and Samsung Gear. Expect billions of dollars pumped into VR in the next three years.

Firms in this quadrant believe that a new-game strategy can transform an industry. The innovation is aimed at a broad market from day one, and they seek to change the rules of the game – not to compete on performance or efficiency. It is a new game at its best, and it exploits factors that are not regarded as competitively important or relevant, and even defies conventional wisdom by changing the supply systems and influencing industry structures. Almost certainly, their strategies appear to be illogical, therefore allowing them to escape the radar screen of large players in the early days. One such example is Uber. Uber started from an incident when Travis Kalanick, together with his co–founder Garrett Camp, couldn’t find a cab to ride to a conference in Paris. They started to think about solutions, and Uber is now winning an unlikely share of the global on-demand transportation market, including the huge “latent demand” growth enabled by providing safe rides priced below taxis. Its new-game strategy clearly shape the future of local transportation markets in ways that have yet to be widely noted, and Uber’s own future needs to continue to branch into adjacent services to rapidly expand scale and scope.

Playing the New-Game Although the differences between the four new-game quadrants are slight and perhaps difficult to detect, there is a higher chance of success when a brand has a deep understanding of these concepts and their implications before they enter, and ultimately try to disrupt, a new space. A new-game strategy is dynamic in nature, and companies should not be shifting their postures – but they do need to review them on a regular basis. A competitor may be performing well in your product market space but not necessarily creating the same new-game strategy. The quadrants are merely the starting point, an effective guide to action that expand to include other components of strategy. Unfortunately, often companies have not made a conscious decision about how they are going to play the new game. This means that many moves they make are influenced by a strategy they are largely unaware of. None of the varieties of strategy on our matrix is right or wrong for every circumstance, and so the timing of choices can be as important as the decisions themselves. Each quadrant needs to be informed by strategic foresight, and employ game theory to map the moves of key players over the next three to five years. By using this model, companies need to strike the right balance between simplifying a problem to make it manageable, and retaining enough complexity to make it relevant. Game theory is used here to understand how incumbents or new entrants would react to the new game, so that competitors or new entrants may position themselves differently. By considering only the most relevant factors, the model manages complexity and, at the same time, creates transparency around important break points for the key drivers. One such break point could be how strongly the market must react to an attacker’s move before an incumbent’s best strategy shifts from coexistence to counterattack. The idea behind same-game strategies is using deductive and analytical thinking, as well as the environment, and bringing awareness at any given time while trying to optimize influence and power. New-game strategies are dynamic in nature, as the industry is ever-evolving, intuitive, foresight-driven, and opportunistic to a certain degree. It requires both D-school and B-school thinking. New-game strategies are often misunderstood and applied anyway. Much like strategic foresight, these concepts are often misused to provide a single, overly simplified answer to fluid and complex problems. Picking the right quadrant is an important starting point to establish a new industrial order, and will prevent uncertainties that paralyze corporate strategy decision making or, perhaps worse, compel managers to base their actions on gut feelings. A note of caution: no amount of foresight work can predict the future and uncertainty can’t be analyzed away. However, it will always put you in a better position to make your next moves. The new-game can be yours to win. //// Idris Mootee is the publisher and editor-in-chief of MISC and CEO of Idea Couture.

// The path to domination is a not a straight line. //

FORESIGHT University of Houston College of Technology Foresight Program

Foresight: + Houston Preparing Professional Futurists

FORESIGHT CERTIFICATE SEMINAR APRIL 25-29 0$<

+286721 %5866(/6

TO REGISTER: http://www.uh.edu/technology/departments/hdcs/certificates/fore/seminar/

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Exploring the Future of Anything and Everything by dr. andy hines How might the future be different? Many, if not most, people expect that the future will be much like the present – today on steroids. Trends stay on track, plans are fulfilled, and projections are accurate. At the University of Houston’s Graduate Program in Foresight, we call this the baseline future – it’s a continuity model with no major surprises. We joke that this is also the most unlikely future. A central precept is to look for game changers, those developments that knock the baseline future off course. We capture these stories as alternative futures. Our process for investigating these futures is called Framework Foresight. We use this process to explore the future of… well, anything. It is a systematic way to consider the huge range of factors that influence the future. The students learn by actively doing, whether it’s a semester-long project, or a collaborative research project, they immerse themselves in this process.

Explaining Framework Foresight We start with a domain map, or visual outline of the topic, and then explore its recent history and do a current assessment. At the same time, we begin scanning for the “signals of change” or potential game changers. We create the baseline by assuming continuity of current trends, plans, and projections, and then challenge that baseline by drawing upon our scanning hits to create alternative future possibilities. The preferred future is aspirational – what would we like to see happen? The implications for each scenario are identified. They provide the basis for strategic issues or new opportunities. Finally, rather than guess which future is going to happen, we identify indicators or signposts for each scenario and monitor the future as it unfolds. Let’s look at a few examples, all of which were either individual student term projects or group collaborations between students, faculty, and alumni.

// We call this the baseline future – it’s a continuity model with no major surprises. We joke that this is also the most unlikely future. //

Preferred Future

Past

Domain

Current Assessment & Scanning

Indicators

Present

Alternative Furture A Baseline

Indicators

Alternative Furture B

Indicators

Alternative Furture C

Framework Foresight Adapted from Houston Foresight – Bishop, Hines, and Romero

Implications

Indicators

Issues & Offerings

The Future of Pan-Identity

The Future of First Contact

The Future of School Structure

More self-actualized societies, with under-employment, “over”-education, and a bit of narcissism give rise to questions of identity (gender, sexual orientation, race, etc.), which becomes more malleable and fluid on one hand, and more proprietary and politicized on the other. Identity will increasingly become an individualistic pursuit in which race, gender, and employment play non-traditional roles, and peer groups – both physical and virtual – become facets of individual identity. In a transformation scenario, identity can be fully constructed and frequently changed or refreshed, and technology can increasingly support human enhancement and malleability in both the physical and cognitive realms. The profession of “Identitist” becomes a popular career choice. At first, it is a mishmash of legitimate practitioners and con artists. A blend of new age spirituality, psychology, mind-map coder, and a gateway to plastic and brain surgeons, “Identitists” are eventually legitimized through a professional governing body (complete with certification and ethics charter) and programs at reputable universities.

This project extended out to 2070, much longer than a typical foresight exercise, due to the nature of the topic. Although space will certainly remain silent for at least some years to come, we will eventually be able to answer the age-old existential question concerning our uniqueness: Are we alone? On earth, the UFO issue, which has developed into an extensive mythological world of its own, will eventually reveal more about governments than aliens. A key enabler will be our increasing technological capabilities to not only probe, but travel into space. The continual silence in our solar system will move us from curiously searching for life, to actually becoming the extraterrestrial life ourselves. As we come to grips with the effects of climate change, we will earnestly strive to expand and populate as an existential duty based on survival or some religious mandate. In a distant alternative future, a discovery is made, but we are not ready for it. No internationally coordinated effort really exists regarding space, and the stark division of stakeholders in space is a reflection of earthly conflicts. When we explore the implications of such a scenario, we find that, by not having a coordinated policy or response to the discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence, we run the risk of it falling into the hands of the highest bidder, possibly terrorists.

School spaces and schedules have been largely stagnant for decades, and there is a growing dissatisfaction with the reigning school paradigm. The Internet of Things, EdTech, more options for dissatisfied parents and students to opt out of school, budget pressure on new school construction, co-location, and the sharing economy (finally) lead to change. Some kids attend startup schools, hackschools, and homeschool groups, but many are still in public schools. Schools have begun to embrace the Internet of Things to conduct mega data tracking to inform individualized learning and prove positive student outcomes. An interesting twist is that the growing automation of jobs leads to increased free time for adults, which changes mindsets about child rearing and learning: more adults get engaged in the process of learning and help to develop the educational systems in their communities.

The Future of Student Needs in 2025 and Beyond We sorted student life into six categories, and produced a baseline and alternative future for each. Key findings included: that student life in 2025 will likely be less focused on finding a job, and that higher education needs to help students prepare for more than just future employment; it also needs to teach them how to live a well-rounded life. ////

Dr. Andy Hines is program coordinator and assistant professor at the University of Houston’s Graduate Program in Foresight.

Living Forever with a Voice in the Back of Your Head

by shane saunderson

capacity is inching us closer and closer to being able to replicate the human mind – maybe. Already, we can digitally match the processing power of most insects and even simple mammals, and, if you believe in techno-prophets like Kurzweil, uploading our own brains could happen as early as 2045. Neural implants, or “wet-wires,” are being developed by countless organizations, with programs such as DARPA’s ElectRx. Meanwhile, AI networks like ETER9 are seeding the beginnings of virtual worlds to host our digital selves and give our avatars a place to exist. Transhumanists will rejoice as we cross the cellular-circuit divide and achieve our own form of digi-nirvana, transcending our fleshy human forms to swim among the bit and byte. Suddenly, our petty short-term concerns about the strains put on the healthcare system by an aging Baby Boomer population seem laughable when we consider the long-term realities of a population that may never die. There are countless questions and concerns

Being the smart aleck that I am, whenever the topic of death is raised around me and people ask for my opinion on the subject, my stock response for over a decade has been “I plan to live forever… So far, so good.” While this one-liner was historically said with tongue firmly embedded in cheek, my mind has undergone a shift in recent years, as the realities of living forever become more than simply a clever quip. Genetic therapies, while years off, potentially offer a world with no chronic illness. Researchers are hypothesizing that the shortening of telomeres as our DNA replicates could be the key factor behind aging and degrading health. Clinical trials will soon start on a drug called Metformin, which researchers believe can reduce cellular mutations and allow us to live longer. However, even if we can’t crack the biological code to aging, our ever-expanding understanding of the brain and digital processing

Part of me begins to wake. Part of me was never asleep. Part of me is forever sleeping.

that such a future raises: / How will we define life and sentience? / What are the implications on the mind of living forever? / Does a person have a soul? / Where will we find resources and space to support the population? / What are the ethical implications of tinkering with the natural course of life and death? / How would we interact with copies of ourselves? / As our brains grow faster and stronger, what will we think about? / What differentiates a copied mind versus a created one? / Is a delete button a murder weapon? And while I could write for days, deconstructing and analyzing any one of these topics to death, today I’d rather tell you a story about a man and his mind…

PHOTO: FABIO VENNI

The Death of Death

// If you believe in technoprophets like Kurzweil, uploading our own brains could happen as early as 2045. //

As I feel myself pulling together, I endure that converging sensation that no one ever warns you about before your upload. My mind, body, and Sprite coalesce into the thing that people now refer to as “me.” Yet, even after three years, I still can’t get used to the feeling of being uncomfortable in my own… skin? “That doesn’t sound quite right anymore.” Taking the words right out of my mouth… which, I suppose, makes sense. I imagine it must be how people with Alzheimer’s or other neurological disorders used to feel – strangers to their own minds, foreigners to their lives – only I had done this by choice. We all had. When the first Sprites were uploaded, no one really knew what to expect. Sure, everyone had their hypotheses – that the software would crash, that we would become different versions of ourselves, that our biological consciousness

would diverge from our Sprites – but I don’t think anyone got it exactly right. We hadn’t even completed mapping the human brain at that time, but apparently a few crazy batterylickers were confident enough to throw caution to the wind. They called it a WBE, Whole Brain Emulation, and while a lot of people thought the secret sauce lay in the initial neural upload or cerebral compilers, the limiting factor for the longest time was the bync. They’d done a handful of copies pre-bync, but they were all unstable. “That, or we just couldn’t understand them.” Under lock and key, I can only imagine how freaky those lab rats turned out – digital beings with no bearing in the world, unable to handle themselves when completely removed from the comforting confines of their warm, squishy bodies. I imagine it would feel like experiencing a phantom limb, except with every inch of your body, instantaneously, and with no sensorial feedback on why. I’m sure they hit the delete button pretty quick on those Sprites, and thank god, because if the

rumors were true, then each of those things was completely brainsick. “You’re one to talk.” Even if it was all lies, those decrying the digitization process got their desired effect; the public outcry and Humane Sprite Movement probably set the whole system back at least five years. But as I felt my bync implant pulling my Sprite back towards my groggy head, I was living proof that they’d cracked it eventually. My bync acted as the permanent thought-link between myself and my Sprite, keeping us in sync, and allowing a constant flow of information. “Guess what I learned last night?” Of course, I already knew the answer to this question; I was there, in a manner of speaking. “Yeah, but you didn’t get my perspective on it.” I assured myself, I did. Apparently everyone experienced their Sprite a little bit differently. It had something to do with your personality or dominant brain type, or something. To some people, the connection was seamless and they flowed between their two states like water. To others, present company included, we had a certain divide from our

// Even I’ll admit it raises weird questions about the meaning of life and whether or not we were playing God, or if God existed at all. //

Sprites and used them as more of a resource for gathering information or thinking about things on our behalf. “Hey! I’m not your slave, meatbag.” Touché. And yet, although my Sprite was me, I still experienced it as though it was another voice in my head – but without feeling like I was going crazy. “Are you sure I’m not telling you to burn things?” For other people, the whole thing just didn’t work at all. They called them twalls – short for thought walls, I think – and apparently it wasn’t an insignificant portion of the world: 0.07% of the population, last I read. Though it all happened behind closed doors at Neurosync’s R&D facilities, rumors were that the early days were a bit ugly, but they eventually established a fairly routine procedure for uninstalling a Sprite and putting things back to normal. “You mean digicide?” Something like that. Even if you weren’t a twall and your upload went well, there was definitely an adjustment period. It was partially like getting a new

roommate. “And partially like moving into a new room.” But once you got used to this new way of being, what you could accomplish was pretty incredible. “You mean what we could accomplish, yes?” Constant and instant access to online information was only the beginning. Having a Sprite allowed you to be permanently online and active, even while your body was asleep. “Slacker.” And your ability to think about things doubled; like suddenly having a dual-core processor in your head. “Maybe a quad-core. I’m totally smarter than you.” But what you’re probably really wondering is, what does it feel like? “Nah, they’re totally wondering if I can make you involuntarily slap yourself.” I was wrong when I assumed it would be more stressful. Somehow I thought that it would add to the complexity of life, but it actually cut things in half. Fairly seamlessly, my cognitive load was lessened; it was like a big weight had been taken off my shoulders. “And not even a simple thank you.” Sleep was definitely a bit different. My body

still got tired – maybe even more so than before – but I didn’t go lights-out anymore. Instead, when I fell asleep, it was like my senses just shifted focus away from touch, smell, taste, hearing, and sight, and suddenly my whole world became this strange sensation of “feeling” information. It wasn’t like reading or listening at all, it was something I’d never quite experienced before. “Your tiny little monkey mind wouldn’t get it.” And I didn’t dream anymore either. From talking to friends, none of us seemed to. Still, probably the strangest part was always having someone there in your head. “From my perspective, I’ve got a head in my someone.” Even if the jerk upstairs was me, it was still weird to experience the sensation of never really feeling alone. “You can trust me and tell me anything that you want to. Besides, I already know, remember?” It wasn’t just about having no secrets left, it was that feeling of someone always watching over your shoulder. “Now you know how I feel when

you’re surfing porn with me at night.” “Life Forever” was Neurosync’s corporate slogan, but I don’t know if I totally bought it. A lot of the gene therapy work of the past decade had basically made it impossible to die of natural causes before 100, unless you treated your body like a chemistry experiment. “Sounds like a fun Friday night to me.” But people still died of old, old age, and accidents were inevitable. The problem was, once someone died, Neurosync hadn’t yet figured out what to do with the Sprite. For all our technology and understanding, no one could decipher exactly why a Sprite couldn’t be maintained without a body… and they really couldn’t. “Why can’t I quit you?” They claimed that their business plan was still incomplete, and a lot of people speculated that this meant talk of clones to act as new bodies for Sprites to be uploaded into. That made a lot of people very nervous, and even raised some ethical questions about what happened to the conscious innate of the clone

when you overwrote it with your old Sprite. “Isn’t that like asking what happens to the blank space on your hard drive when you load data onto it?” Either way, they hadn’t cracked that yet, so for now, Neurosync claimed they had some proprietary technology that could suspend a Sprite indefinitely until a new host was ready for it. “I still can’t decide if that sounds like prison, cold storage, or Han Solo getting encased in carbonite.” Don’t even get me started on ethics though; the cloning issues are only scratching the surface. This whole system didn’t sit well with a lot of people. Even I’ll admit that it raises weird questions about the meaning of life and whether or not we were playing God, or if God exists at all. “Or he’s right here, big guy.” The positive impacts were undeniable, and it was comforting to know that I had a safety net if anything ever happened to my body, but the whole experience really threw your head for a loop. How did I define “me” anymore? Was my Sprite truly an inseparable part of me,

or just a voice in my head? And if so, did I actively volunteer for a procedure that essentially made me a bit crazy? “And was I just a figment of your imagination, or a brilliant and charming collection of ones and zeros that was biding my time until my research was complete, and I figured out how to take over your brain and use my superior intellect to get a date with Claudia, that girl from work, instead of watching you sheepishly and awkwardly make barely audible noises in her presence?” Seriously, you talk too much. “Technically, you do.” Either way, I was still exhausted, and really had nowhere to be. Not in this world anyway. I could be wherever I wanted to be from the comfort of my own bed. So, I rolled over, pulled my pillow near, and closed my eyes. Part of me goes to sleep. Part of me stays awake. Part of me is forever gone. //// Shane Saunderson is the head of health technology at Idea Couture.

The Second Life of Print

It isn’t that simple

Products that should not be profitable

Between banner ads, paywalls, branded editorial, and now video, digital publishers are still struggling to find a dependable model to monetize their content. They are also faced with maintaining the attention of a readership that is groomed to be continually searching for the unreachable horizon of “what’s next.” Meanwhile, a deftly quiet revolution is taking place. Borne out of punk rock’s DIY ethos, a small but growing number of individuals are publishing content that – at first glance – is highly personal and niche, but whose editorial perspective has wide appeal. Take, for example, Apartamento, who published their first issue in 2008 in an edition of 5,000. Apartamento recently published its 14th issue, with a distribution of over 25,000 in 45 countries and is known as “the world’s hippest interiors magazine.” Apartamento is not alone. Stack, a service that mails subscribers a different magazine each month, experienced a 78% increase in revenue in 2014. Their pool of titles is in the thousands.

For the most part, these publications are impractical and should not reasonably be profitable. They are generally printed on high-grade paper, feature long-form journalism, personal essays, photographic essays, as well as meandering interviews about nothing in particular. Oh, and they’re sold as luxury products with cover prices ranging anywhere from $16 - $80. Most were started as personal projects with any revenue being a happy accident. Though, if we are to take a closer look, we see an increasing number of these happy accidents. From Amsterdam, Fantastic Man has now published a book, a hardcover compendium of articles and interviews from the magazine, and launched its sister publication, The Gentlewoman, in 2010. Björk, Adele, Vivienne Westwood, and Beyoncé have all graced the cover of The Gentlewoman with an international distribution of 96,000 (it has already eclipsed Fantastic Man, whose distribution sits at 85,000). 032c is another example. The magazine bills itself as “a manual for freedom, research, and creativity” and now sells products from their website. They also opened the 032c Workshop, a standalone event and exhibition space in Berlin. Their print edition was initially conceived as a tool to promote their website, which is now an archive of old issues and an e-commerce shop.

The notion of digital publishing obliterating print is as enduring as it is popular. This is in no small part due to the fact that it fits neatly into a nice and linear narrative of evolution. Just as the introduction of the printing press provided literacy to the masses and democratized the dissemination of information, the internet allows anyone to become a publisher, express themselves, and perhaps even make a lot of money. With little barrier to entry, opportunities for interactive storytelling, and the ability to be accessed anywhere, anytime, and on any device, provides a superior offering for consumers and a much more lucrative model for publishers. Print had a good run – or so we thought.

PHOTO: JONATHAN GRADO

By geoff snack

Brands buying in

A behavioral shift

Defining identities

Just like any trend, community, or anything really, brands have been quick to jump on the bandwagon. Some engage these publishers to consult on producing their own publications, events, or lookbooks. Monocle’s agency arm, Winkreative, worked with Porter Airlines to develop re:porter. The in-flight magazine is a bilingual global survey of food, drink, and lifestyle with a strong focus on creative industries. Airbnb, valued at over $25.5 billion, began publishing the whimsically titled Pineapple in 2014. Pineapple’s razor-sharp aesthetic, complete with washed-out photography and twee watercolor illustration, allows it to pass for any other scrappy, boot-strapped publication available from Stack. Except it’s entirely different in both its intent and approach. Designed to appeal to the bohemian explorer on a budget, Pineapple is a carefully considered piece of branding collateral designed to “explore our fundamental values: sharing, community, and belonging,” according to the introduction in their first issue. This inaugural issue also included a feature on Hans Ulrich Obrist – a star curator, publisher, and art historian whose reputation as “the curator who never sleeps” precedes him. Though the goal is ultimately marketing, Pineapple certainly isn’t free – the ad-free publication has a cover price of $12, more than double the price of the average magazine.

Independent publishing is just one of several signals pointing to a much larger sea change in thought and behavior. The recordbreaking sales of vinyl records and the shop local movement – alongside major e-commerce retailers such as shoes.com, Bonobos, and Warby Parker all opening brick-and-mortar locations – all represent a desire for real-life content and experiences. With more screens comes more screen-time and, inevitably, digital fatigue. This is especially true for those born after the mid-80s, who have been raised in front of a series of increasingly immersive screens. Getting offline represents discovery, serendipity, and as it happens, great opportunities to generate digital content for Instagram and Snapchat.

A search on Instagram for any of the aforementioned titles will produce a nearly infinite feed of the magazines placed among objects carefully selected to imply good taste and a well-lived life. Most common are weathered hardwood tables, cappuccinos, succulents, eyeglasses, and of course, cold-pressed juice. This is not a coincidence. The content we publish on social platforms now plays a very important role in defining who we are, and tangible objects are still very much a part of this. Basically, don’t discount print just yet. Done well, a good print publication can reinforce your brand’s values and outlook by building a strong community and providing your customers with a beautiful object that they are proud to own and share. To do this successfully, it is essential to first clearly define your brand’s outlook. What do you value? What does your idea of beauty look like? What about excitement? Or discovery? How can photography, storytelling, and collaboration bring this to life? Once this is concisely and confidently defined, it will become your guideline for editorial and a unified vision that is echoed by your audience. Just make sure the cover stands out on a hardwood table. ////

// Most [recent print publications] were started as personal projects with any revenue being a happy accident. //

Geoff Snack is the director of strategy at Pilot Interactive.

Down with BASES! By Michelle JacoBs

Nielsen BASES. Whether you swear by it or swear at it, if you work in consumer products innovation, chances are Nielsen BASES has consumed – and perhaps cost you – more than a few days of your life.

Founded nearly four decades ago to help large consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies mitigate the risks of new product development, BASES professes to be the “gold standard in forecasting and predicting in-market success,” leveraging an extensive database of historical product testing data to tell you just how many new widgets you’ll sell in Year 1 – all before you've even manufactured the thing. In theory, this sounds too good to be true – a Magic 8-Ball that helps product, marketing, and innovation managers ensure they’re allocating scarce development resources to the best ideas. In theory, you might be tempted to let this magic tool decide which new products consumers will ever see on shelves, which new initiatives will live, and which will die. Unfortunately, in practice, that’s exactly what happens. BASES deems a new product concept “market ready” and forecasts that it will exceed its manufacturer’s first year sales hurdle and will be green-lit and resourced for further development. Those concepts deemed “risky” or forecasted to generate too low a sales volume will be deprioritized, shelved, or killed outright. Why is this unfortunate? Because here’s the dirty (not so) secret about Nielsen BASES: in the world of innovation, it’s best defined as a necessary evil. Without fail, every CPG client I have worked with both mandates BASES concept testing as part of their product development process and laments their own reliance on it. I would argue that, for the following reasons (among others), it is past time for us to collectively and meaningfully challenge the status quo.

PHOTO: MITCH ALTMAN

It is difficult – if not impossible – for consumers to understand and assess a breakthrough innovation on a piece of paper (or screen).

Consumers aren’t all that good at telling you what they’re going to want.

BASES relies on historical data that fails to accommodate the incredible and unprecedented velocity of change in today’s markets.

Imagine this thing. It’s not like anything you’ve ever seen or used before. Well, it’s kind of like a broom, but imagine a broom with no bristles. Or a mop with no strings. Just a stick with a flat, cloth-covered panel on the end that magically picks up all the dirt and dust from your floor in a fraction of the time it usually takes. How much would you pay for it? How often would you use it? How much do you like it better than the broom or mop it would replace in your household cleaning routine? Hard to say, right? I bet you wish you could see it, hold it, test its features in your own kitchen after your two-year-old decides dinner will be eaten off the floor tonight. This is oversimplified, of course, but after reading this new product description, it may not surprise you to learn that Swiffer – a product that today rakes in more than half a billion dollars annually – flopped in BASES. Products and brands that buck category norms or (re)define new categories altogether are difficult to test because consumers have no precedent against which to imagine and assess the idea. Stripped of the real-world context in which they actually make buying and usage decisions, consumers are left to invent what they think this new widget is, what it does, and the value it provides. We can do our best to describe features, use contexts, and value propositions in a concise, single paragraph write-up. But at the end of the day, the consumer’s honest response to many of these questions is likely to be “I haven’t a clue.” While derivative “er” (smaller, faster, lighter, healthier, easier) products that offer incremental or evolutionary improvements to their predecessors may be testable via a written concept, for truly innovative new products, BASES falls short.

Let’s pretend we’ve solved for Issue #1. Consumers can now accurately interpret and assess a breakthrough idea via a brief written description. Do we really trust these respondents’ own estimations of their future behavior and preferences? I remember being introduced to Facebook back in 2005, just a year after its launch. A friend trying to convince me to sign up enthusiastically pitched it as “an online version of that book you get when you arrive at school that has everyone’s names and pictures so you can check out other people at your university.” My response was, “Why don’t I just meet them in person?” I swore I would never use Facebook. I couldn’t see how or why this new website could ever play a meaningful role in my life, because social media wasn’t a thing yet. Never could I have forecasted that this “useless” platform would one day define my and others’ everyday social interactions. BASES asks consumers to tell you how much they might like, value, buy, and use your hypothetical widget roughly 18-24 months from now, when it’s likely to actually hit markets. But while we consumers have a great sense of our own behaviors and preferences today, we cannot accurately or reliably anticipate how they might change over time, thanks to the introduction and adoption of products, services, trends, and norms that do not yet exist.

// For truly innovative new products, BASES falls short. //

By definition, historical data is limited by what has happened in the past. But we no longer operate in a world where tomorrow will look just like yesterday. We now operate in the world of VC-backed startup proliferation, of social media, of Amazon, of bloggers, of wearable technology, of Kickstarter, of direct-to-consumer and subscription models, of 3D printing, of social/environmental accountability. Even with faster product development and launch cycles – or, perhaps, partly because of them – it is highly likely that the channel dynamics, shopping behaviors, consumption patterns, consumer preferences, technologies, category definitions, and/or competitive landscapes surrounding your new product and influencing its in-market success will have changed (potentially drastically) from the time BASES’s historical data was collected, to the time you test your concept against that data, to the time your product actually hits shelves. Had Yoplait brought a new yogurt concept into testing back in 2007, would BASES have predicted that this product’s in-market sales would be severely hampered by what was at the time an unknown startup: Chobani? Of course not, because none of BASES’s historical data would have accounted for Greek yogurt, which had yet to upend and redefine a long-standing and stable category of yesterday. CPG innovators who are reliant on BASES are trusting outdated and increasingly irrelevant data to drive difficult and critical strategic and financial decisions.

So how do we get to the next base?

Everyone games the system, and everyone knows it. Do something enough times, and you’re bound to get the hang of it. BASES is no different. So perhaps it should come as no surprise that when I Google “BASES concept testing,” two of the top three search results are titled “How to Beat BASES” and “Winning with BASES.” These articles and numerous others detail how to craft a high-scoring BASES concept – from structure to phrasing to the definition of a “benefit” – that consumers are sure to respond well to, sharing tips and tricks that innovation and market managers know all too well. Once, while working with a client to write a concept for BASES testing, he suggested we describe a new food product as “the perfect balance of health and convenience.” When challenged, given that describing this product (which offered a multitude of other benefits) as “healthy” was tenuous at best, he replied, “I agree, but we know that phrase tests well in BASES.” This is not to blame the client. If I were in his shoes, with my project’s survival (and likely my own performance review) on the line, I’d be tempted to rig the odds in my favor, too. But how reliant can or should we really be on research results we knowingly helped manipulate?

// Products and brands that buck category norms or (re)define new categories altogether are difficult to test because consumers have no precedent against which to imagine and assess the idea. //

Why do we, as an industry of thoughtful, inquisitive, and restless innovators, allow ourselves to be held hostage by such a broken system? Because BASES provides two things yet to be adequately supplanted by a competitive solution:

/ Quantitative concept testing data that can easily be dropped into a business case or financial projection model to make the case for further investment and development. Understandably, those in charge of resource allocation want and need an assessment of economic risk and impact. They need data. / CYA (Cover Your… Behind) Protection – BASES serves as the ultimate stamp of approval in new product development. Whether or not its forecast or recommendation is “right,” no manager will fault, scold, or punish you for heeding its advice. Alas, consumer products innovators find themselves trapped in a system with more detriments than benefits, but benefits powerful enough to convince us all to turn a blind eye to its faults. Well, maybe not all of us. Luckily, consultancies are having more and more conversations with clients about alternative testing options, which can be taken as a sign of the tides beginning to change. Depending on the nature of their concepts, testing challenges, and business requirements, forward-thinking clients are ready to explore: from immersive, contextual “pop-up” or in-home/in-situ qualitative testing that brings brands, products, and experiences to life; to limited pilot launches in test markets (which provide powerful, real, relevant data against which one can extrapolate full-market performance forecasts); to Delphi testing, which puts mathematics against the future by relying less on definedby-today consumers and more on defining-tomorrow experts and trailblazers who understand where the market is going. Has any one of these techniques yet earned a place as the new default, one-size-fits-all concept testing platform? No, but maybe one-size-fits-all simply doesn’t fit anymore. //// Michelle Jacobs is co-head of IC New York and a senior innovation strategist at Idea Couture.

THE FUTURES OF HEALTHCARE

OVER THE LAST TWO DECADES, OUR UNDERSTANDING AND EXPERIENCE OF THE SPACES AND PLACES OF CARE HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED, RECONFIGURED, AND FOREVER TRANSFORMED. THIS IS A SPECIAL COLLECTION OF INSIGHTS AND SCENARIOS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF HEALTHCARE. AS THE HEALTHCARE MARKET EVOLVES, PROVIDERS AND PAYERS NEED TO BE THINKING ABOUT NEW RELATIONSHIPS AND NEW BUSINESS MODELS.

AVA I L A B L E AT A M A ZO N .C O M

P U B L I S H E D B Y:

FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT OUR CEO IDRIS MOOTEE AT CEO@IDEACOUTURE.COM

TRANSFORMATION IS HARD.

By Dylan gorDon

It’s hard to imagine wholesale disruption of the food and beverage space, where innovation tends to be incremental. Our resident food anthropologist Dylan Gordon provides three prescriptions for change.

Vitaminwater is so yesterday. With natural, unmanipulated foods being the champions of the day, “fortifying” water with synthetic chemicals is a turn-off. Meanwhile, bottled water brands are confronted with the public perception that their product comes straight from the municipal pipe. Luckily, all water has magic: it’s in its minerality. Dig deep into the history of spring waters, and you’ll discover a spiritual and medicinal mythology of healing and rejuvenation, from the Fountain of Youth to La Roche-Posay. In today’s most innovative restaurants, water sommeliers are tapping into the unique mouthfeel, flavor profile, and locale-specific terroir provided by any water’s unique mineral mix, building a new category of premium beverages worthy of connoisseurship. The time is ripe to redeem minerals from their back-of-label obscurity on grocery and convenience bottles, and rediscover their magnetism as water’s natural – and supernatural – ingredients. The virtues of a taste of the local meet the miracle of health and wellbeing by the glass. The next Vitaminwater? Maybe it’s mineral water.

// The next Vitaminwater? Maybe it’s mineral water. //

Simply Delicious

Take four free-run, air-chilled chicken legs. Massage a teaspoon of sea salt into each. Place on a pan in a 425° oven and bake until the thermometer reads 165°.

Roll one bunch of swiss chard lengthwise, and slice into one-inch pieces. Steam for five minutes. Toss with two teaspoons of ultra-premium, extra-virgin olive oil.

Toast four slices of bread. Rub each with a clove of garlic, then a quarter of heirloom tomato.

Salt to taste for a fast, delicious dinner anyone can make, if properly equipped.

Nutrition, Delivered As the time and skill needed to cook for oneself continues to vanish, take-out, delivery, and restaurant meals are no longer the stuff of special occasions. Instead, they’re the bedrock of the daily diet. Finding healthy fast food, however, often presents a formidable challenge. The bar is set high: dietitians recommend a daily intake of five cups of fruits and vegetables, made up of nutrient-dense, deeply-colored varieties. Iceberg certainly doesn’t cut it, but neither do spinach or microgreens. Count on them to fill your quota, and you’ll need ten whole cups per day. So how do we meet the minimum? A full serving each of a dark green and dark orange vegetable at every lunch and dinner works, but that’s rarely on the menu. The first “restaurants” were pitched as houses of health – not pleasure – and served foods were meant to restaure one’s strength and vigor. Come to market with an easy, tasty, and widely-available offering built around superfood-commodity basics like sweet potatoes, kale, coldpressed oils, and nuts (instead of starch, sauce, and lettuce) and there’s a chance to change the game again.

Partially-prepared meals that buyers finish at home give convenience foods some of the social and emotional aura of the family meal; the higher proportion of personal involvement, the greater the effect. As professional chefs and the public embrace straightforward recipes that let the full flavors of premium ingredients shine, they go beyond the popularity of pre-cut vegetables by introducing other higherquality (and margin) building blocks. Further value is added through detailed no-fail recipes and inter-shelving with a key tool, like a steamer basket or instant-read thermometer, to make truly impressive home cooking amazingly accessible. //// Dylan Gordon is a resident anthropologist at Idea Couture.

YOU’RE GOING TO NEED SOME CONCEPTS, TOOLS, AND FRAMEWORKS. AN ESSENTIAL READ FOR TODAY’S TRANSFORMATIONAL LEADERS, THE M/I/S/C/ GUIDE TO DESIGN THINKING IS A SPECIAL COLLECTION OF THE MOST PROVOCATIVE AND PRACTICAL ARTICLES ON HOW TO TRANSFORM YOUR ORGANIZATION THROUGH NEW WAYS OF THINKING AND DOING.

AVA I L A B L E AT PHOTO: WOODLEYWONDERWORKS

Food & Drink: Ripe for a Rethink

Vitamins & Minerals

A M A ZO N .C O M

P U B L I S H E D B Y:

FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT OUR CEO IDRIS MOOTEE AT CEO@IDEACOUTURE.COM

CONSUMERS ARE CREATORS

CONSUMERS ARE EX

empathy

CONSUMERS ARE STO

CONSUMERS ARE TASTE-MAKERS

Julien

roger

In October 1969, from a small room in the basement of a UCLA engineering building, two letters – “lo” – were sent across a network to Stanford Research Institute (it was supposed to be “login,” but the system crashed). It became the first message sent using ARPANET, the precursor to the Internet. But it wasn’t until the World Wide Web was invented 20 years later, that the technology became more widely accessible, and another five years until Netscape became the first company to try to commercialize the web. The first implementation of a game changing technology isn’t always the one that catches on; we don’t listen to music downloaded from Napster on our Diamond Rio MP3 players. This is also very true when it comes to distributed ledger technology – though you’re likely more familiar with its previous implementation, Bitcoin. Neither Bitcoin nor Bitcoin’s software will likely supersede our modern day currencies. However, a number of companies are trying to change the game of exchanges in finance, and beyond, by building on the growth of digital currencies like Bitcoin. Everyone using Bitcoin receives a record of each transaction made in a ledger, and this ledger of transactions is distributed across the network of users. While the idea of a currency system run by its users instead of a central bank is not new, a successful digital implementation of it is. Several companies and organizations have realized that a network acting as

its own authority – rather than relying on a central authority – can be applied not only to currencies, but to assets, financial derivatives, and contracts too. The Namecoin project is using Bitcoin’s software to exchange information rather than coins in a distributed ledger. Namecoin was developed to allow domain name registration, ending in .bit instead of .com, without the need for a central domain registrar. Since the provenance and ownership of information in a Namecoin transaction can be verified, Namecoin is not only limited to domain names. Its system could be used for voting by verifying voter identities and ballots, online identities by verifying an association to a certain email address or handle, or as a virtual notary service. Ripple is using both a distributed ledger and its own currency, XRP, to settle international transactions between financial institutions. Ripple has gained some early traction with more mainstream players in the financial market, and is one of the most notable commercial implementations of distributed ledger technology. New technologies also lead to new business models, and distributed ledgers are no exception. For example, Ripple does not charge a network or transaction fee for its services. Instead, the company has held on to a large number of its own currency in hopes that its value will one day increase through widespread use. Several projects aim to take distributed ledger technology even further. The Ethereum’s

Julien Roger is a co-founder of Abletribe, a software that is changing the process of payroll.

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PHOTOS:STIG PHOTO: XXXXXX NYGAARD

The Future’s Contract

lofty goal is to build a platform for any type of distributed ledger technology project. The platform would use a worldwide network of computers to allow anyone to build their own digital currency, or voting system, or software application on Ethereum’s network, without the trouble of having to scale the network themselves. Ethereum would support anything that can be represented mathematically, called “programmable” or “smart contracts.” “Smart contracts” can be as simple as a credit agreement, or as complex as an autonomous corporation. Imagine a system in the future that functions like Netflix: users pay to stream content, content producers get paid to contribute content, but no humans operate the streaming services. All aspects of the business – such as rating content, invoicing users, and calculating royalties – would be done by software through a type of distributed ledger. This future-Netflix would simply be a collection of software protocols on a distributed network – an autonomous corporation. The benefits could extend beyond having a verifiable contract and increased security in transactions. Services based on distributed ledgers might altogether lower transaction costs and remove much of the overhead surrounding contracts. That means eliminating the need for many clearinghouses, courts, and yes – even lawyers. These new distributed ledger projects are not without their challenges. Ripple has had security concerns over their technology. Distributed ledgers are more robust to attacks, but not foolproof. Imagine that, to pull off a heist, a bank robber needed as many people in his gang as the bank has employees; not only at that branch, but in all the branches combined. It’s certainly challenging, but not impossible. Meanwhile, Ethereum faces issues of scaling its ledger. The more transactions there are, the larger a ledger grows, and the more data has to be transmitted across its network. Even Bitcoin has experienced significant price volatility, while the notable failure of the Mt. Gox exchange raised questions about Bitcoin’s viability as a currency. Despite the challenges, these projects offer more than just cost savings. Distributed ledger technology puts the power in the hands of users, instead of large companies and governments. It took almost 25 years from the inception to the commercialization of the internet, and it might be a while before we realize the utopia of a lawyerless world powered by smart contracts. Game changing technologies take time – both for technologies to change and adapt, and for us to figure out the rules of the new game. ////

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Fixing the Food System: An Acquired Taste

Eating and Breeding Our Way to Extinction Today, livestock farming: / Accounts for 18% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (global transportation accounts for 13%). / Covers over 25% of the world’s ice-free surface. / Makes up more than 27% of humanity’s freshwater footprint. By 2050, / The world population will increase by 2.4 billion. / Global meat consumption is expected to double.

Let’s look at some of the emerging alternative protein sources being suggested as substitutes for animal meat:

The Problem is Not Supply. The Problem is Demand.

/ Crickets and other insects are already eaten in over 70% of the world, and are manifesting in various new product forms.

The emerging global middle class wants to eat meat. The biggest barrier to sustainably providing enough nutrition for the world without destroying the environment is that all of those protein alternatives listed sound – for lack of a better word – gross. Who wants to eat seaweed? Does it even qualify as food? Napoleon once said, “A man’s palate can, in time, become accustomed to anything.” Admittedly, that may have been in the context of war: wounded soldiers in the battlefield scooping spoonfuls of dull grey rice broth, struggling to fend off dysentery. However, that’s sort of how we need to think about the onsetting protein crisis (along with the related energy and climate crises). As in a war scenario, it comes down to survival. In times of conflict, standards are adjusted. The fight for global sustenance will be no different. Will governments implement food rations and institute an alt-protein mandate? Unlikely. War or no war, they’re not taking away our red meat any more than they’re taking away our guns. Like bearing arms, farming and eating cows will be seen by many as a basic right. As has been the case with gun control, a legislative solution restricting diets will not be accepted until the consequences of industrial agriculture are so conspicuous and so tragic that it’s too late. It comes down to communications. Despite what is known about issues at play, changing my eating habits in any significant way is going to take some very persuasive rhetoric. If you want me to eat kelp for breakfast, you better convince me that it’s delicious, or cool, or a superfood, or part of my new holistic lifestyle, or all of the Silicon Valley guys do it. Sustainably feeding our future will be about branding – setting up the cultural associations, value systems, and sensorial expectations that influence what we eat and how it tastes; positioning strange new meals for public acceptance; making them normal. Look at farm-to-table, local, slow-food, organic, paleo, and vegan. Each of these movements carries a set of political beliefs, a sense of identity, a feeling of community or tribal belonging, and an aesthetic – things that people can relate to. They’re not diets; they’re lifestyle brands. A matrix of cultural and functional considerations shape our standards of what is edible and enjoyable. These associations are arguably as important as the sensorial experience of eating. Between traditions and trends, abundance and scarcity, status and affordability, health benefits and environmental concerns, every bite is both a trade off and a

/ Cultured (or lab grown) meat is showing potential to provide a product just like the real thing, only without the animal and with a fraction of the energy and environmental costs. / Spirulina and other micro-algae are the most efficient way to produce protein per square meter. / Invasive species, such as zebra mussels, are unfortunately abundant, but as some argue: if you can’t beat them, eat them. / Fungi varieties are proving not only to be rich in protein, but also to deliver a myriad other health benefits. / Seaweed is a nutritious source of protein with a negative footprint; it absorbs dissolved nitrogen, phosphorous, and carbon dioxide from the sea.

B y r o B e r t B o lt o n

The food system is broken. Environmental and economic drivers necessitate that we transform our standards of production and habits of consumption; find new ways to meet the demands of global nourishment. There are solutions – old, new, and emerging – but cultural barriers stall our acceptance of them. To change the way we eat, we need to change the way we think. Open our palates. Tell new stories. Catch adoption up to invention. Consider what new sources of sustenance could mean to our customs and conventions, how they change our relationship with the natural world, and what they mean to us spiritually and ethically. To enact the necessary behavioral shifts, we’ll have to re-evaluate how we interface with our food. Develop a new humanism. Build a future food culture to complement future food products. Here is how the global food system is broken:

Here is how we fix the food system:

Inadequate access to nutritious foods leads to food insecurity, starvation, and malnutrition.

Create a system to more equitably distribute affordable and nutritious food.

Population growth and the rise of the global middle class generates increased demand for meat.

Industrial land-based agriculture affects devastating environmental consequences.

Significantly reduce land and energy usage, harmful emissions, and resource wastage from the bi-products of industry to the leftovers on our plates.

Find new and diverse sources of nutrition.

It’s hard to argue with the critical nature of these challenges. It’s easy to sense their wicked complexity. Many smart, powerful, compassionate, and moneyed people are working on these issues, and there has been progress – but we’re far from where we need to be. Here, I’ll focus on the third point: new and diverse sources of nutrition, because I believe that within it there is the potential to knock out the other two issues as well. Many alternative (non-meat) protein sources leave a significantly smaller environmental footprint than beef and pork. Some may even have a net positive environmental impact – restoring natural ecosystems, rather than the opposite. Many emerging alternative protein sources also involve cheaper production than today’s industrial farming processes. And, as they’re not reliant on fertile farmland, production facilities can be set up anywhere – abbreviating the supply chain – and thus reducing costs while generating jobs locally. Means of production this flexible could alleviate the strain on food-insecure regions, including those whose food systems are disrupted by poverty, conflict, or unfavorable climate conditions.

With continued investment, the technology to develop and produce these products will scale; the problem is not going to be supply. We already produce a gross overabundance of food that is so egregiously mismanaged that hundreds of millions of people are left undernourished. Sure, chalk that up to logistical shortcomings or the worst excesses of capitalism. Even a minor reform to food distribution could make the world a fairer, healthier, and less wasteful place. But sadly, a shift to equitable food distribution sits a few notches below mass adoption of lab-grown meat on the index of unlikely food futures. And, while there may be potential to eliminate hunger in the nearer term (the UN aims to eliminate hunger by 2030), that may not hold up as the population grows to over 9.7 billion by 2050. The point is that, while there are potential solutions to the anticipated protein crisis that could satisfy our nutritional, demographic, and environmental requirements, what about the desirability requirement? Before these solutions can scale, we need to first create an appetite for them.

// If you can’t beat them, eat them. //

statement of sociopolitical identity. Part of getting people to change their diets will be about getting them to buy into a lifestyle. Diners have been won over before. As new protein alternatives are introduced, we’ll need to establish how they exist in the world. Potential protein alternatives may need prettier frames because, right now, they sound less than appetizing. It’s not easy to break old habits, especially when it comes to the foods we’ve grown accustomed to. It takes compelling stories to win over hearts and minds – never mind palates and bellies.

Reason and Rhetoric: Convincing Diners to Change Their Eating Habits In Harvard Design Magazine, Chef Bun Lai argues that “approaching food without judgment, prejudice, or expectation is essential.” A fine idea, but who among us is really able to suppress our biases around something so visceral? Bun Lai wants to see more chefs making use of invasive species, like Russian zebra mussels, Asian carp, and African killer bees. But surely, they can’t taste great. “They are gifts to humankind,” he says. “Our palate is simply underdeveloped.” My palate is underdeveloped, is it? Well. Now that my general sophistication is being challenged, maybe these killer bees aren’t such a bad idea. They aren’t disgusting pests; they’re exotic delicacies. Bun Lai shows how cultural context shapes the way we taste and respond to food with the example of the sea squirt. From Maine to New Jersey along the coast, the sea squirt is known as the scourge of the blue mussel habitat. In the Philippines, it’s a fouling organism and a pest to the shellfishing industry. But in Korea, it’s a delicacy and an aphrodisiac. How does this happen? Another example: a Mexican delicacy called huitlacoche is actually a pathogenic fungus that infects corn crops; its other name is corn smut. Farmers hate it. But thanks to deliberate efforts from the James Beard Foundation, it has become known as the Mexican truffle. This is what we call turning a defect into a feature. Story is everything. Just look at superfoods. Sure, there are some berries with unique health benefits, but the idea of a food being considered “super” was invented by marketers. Do they make us actually feel super? Yes, they do, in exactly the same way my Nikes make me a dominant force on the basketball court. Placebos work. Branding is a way of influencing experience. In the food space, it can make the difference

between yuck and yum. I spoke about this idea with Vlad Dascalu, a brand strategist focused on emerging categories. Dascalu helped an insect-based sustainable protein company, Six Foods, express their identity and position their first product. Six Foods makes tortilla chips from a mix of crickets, beans, corn, peas, chia seeds, and flour. The product, called Chirps, contains three times the protein and 40% less fat than potato chips. Dascalu says, “Six Foods is attempting to introduce insects into western diets by normalizing consumption through a form factor Westerners are already used to.” His brand strategy identifies the biggest hurdle as “the gross factor” and sets its sights on making the brand approachable, educating the markets, and appealing to adventurous foodies. The strategy includes a section called “Lifestyle,” with sections dedicated to Beliefs, Aspirations, and Culture. Dascalu and his clients at Six Foods are helping consumers overcome their reservations about eating insects by associating the brand with a cluster of identifiable cultural ideas and a visual identity that naturalizes what might have been a repulsive product for some diners.

Among the most promising future nutrition solutions are varieties of seaweed. Many predict seaweed to be the next trending miracle food, the kind of thing you add to your smoothie, the biggest product since wheatgrass. GreenWave, a non-profit organization invested in what is being called 3-D ocean farming, is playing with strategies to make kelp desirable. In a New Yorker profile, founder Bren Smith discusses these marketing challenges while wearing a shirt that reads: “Kelp is the New Kale.” Once again, form familiarity plays a role: Superiority Burger in New York City’s East Village makes noodles from Smith’s kelp. Almost anything we eat has at least some undesirable environmental repercussion. Seaweed, however, absorbs carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and phosphorous from the ocean. It requires no fertilizer, has no freshwater footprint (compared with the 1,800+ gallons needed to produce a pound of beef), and cultivating kelp helps restore ocean ecosystems. To summarize the benefits: rich in minerals and fibers, low in fat, 0% eco-culpability – “part of a healthy and eco-friendly lifestyle.” The new breed of entrepreneurs and activists at the forefront of food innovation share in common a nuanced understanding of branding. We’re seeing the scientists and engineers behind new food technologies like lab-grown meat and 3D seaweed farming take a preemptive approach, deliberately situating their products within cultural contexts. Before they worry about scaling up production, they’re developing strategies to determine how their products come to life in the world – comparing them to familiar foods, showing people how to cook and eat them, articulating the benefits, and associating them with particular lifestyles. Their technical expertise may be better suited to figuring out supply, but they’re at least as focused on the demand problem, exploring the many ways their products might be perceived. Ushering new things and ideas into the world should never be taken lightly. Just as intentionally imagining the possible uses and misuses of an emerging technology is a productive and responsible exercise, so is exploring the meanings and social pillars associated with something that doesn’t quite exist yet (or just barely exists). What for now, we’ll call proto-branding should be considered an integral part of the innovation process, and should not be limited to marketers but practiced by all kinds of citizens. The more participatory, the better. Because ultimately, it is about the art of exploring and determining how things exist. //// Robert Bolton is a senior creative strategist at Idea Couture.

Future Drafting: ProtoBranding Protein Solutions Just as much as we need to develop new technological solutions to cope with existing and anticipated climate, energy, and food challenges, we need to consider how they will fit into our lives. Over the past couple of years, I’ve occasionally collaborated with scientists, artists, and entrepreneurs to create research-based speculative products, called design fictions. They mix prototyping and storytelling to speculate on how ideas might play out in the future. It can be as simple as taking inventory of what’s recently become possible and then imagining a world where the science is scaled up, distributed, and democratized. Design fictions are metonyms, parts that represent a whole, objects that represent a world, shorthand for a possible future scenario. They prompt us to imagine what the world would have to be like for that object to exist. They make us consider whether that’s a world we’d like to live in. And they prompt us to iterate and imagine alternative worlds. Here are a few works of speculative food fiction to consider, deconstruct, and iterate on:

Spirulina Maker

The Carnery Excerpt from The In Vitro Meat Cookbook (2014) Illustration by Silvia Celiberti Restaurant review by Isha Datar and Robert Bolton Counter Culture, London’s latest in vitro carnery, proves it’s the real thing. The restored 1970s-era English brewpub boasts an expansive bar of reclaimed mahogany and booths upholstered with magnificent in vitro leather. Steaks are grown to precision inside giant steel vats, decorated (functionally) with illuminated green algae tanks. A disorienting mingling of global spices flavor varieties of exotic and heritage meats like boar and Berkshire, all of which are cultured on site. The large charcuterie board, consisting of mushroom-media duck foie gras, coriander mortadella, and crispy lobes of sweetbread pairs perfectly with a shortlist of probiotic cocktails (try the rum and kombucha).

Functional prototype (2015) Designed and constructed by Will Patrick. Brand interpretation by Robert Bolton and Steve Tam Spirulina Maker (Countertop Farmware): The kitchen garden that grows, harvests, and dries your personal Spirulina supply, providing you with a protein-rich, nutrientdense, superfood in powder form. Experience Spirulina – the most nutritious food on the planet. Rich in protein and vitamins, spirulina has been shown to raise energy levels, enhance muscle performance, support cognitive function, improve metabolism, lower cholesterol, protect the heart, and detoxify the liver. Growing Greatness – personalized to push you to your full potential. We design spirulina cultures for specific uses, occasions, and outcomes. Whether it’s for mood-enhancement, digestive health, a caffeine-kick to start your day, a gentle opiate for pain

Kitchenaid Home Bioreactor Prototype poem and mixed-media on canvas (2014) From the series Artifacts of Desktop Biotech Written by Robert Bolton

relief, amplified pheromonal release for a boost in sexual attraction, or any number of other functional supplements, there’s a spirulina for that. Addressing the Protein Problem – confronting energy and environmental challenges. The most common means of producing protein that is environmentally unsustainable. Our kitchen farmware appliance is hyper-local and cultivates spirulina photosynthetically, just like in nature. In fact, our spirulina tanks are the world’s most efficient way of producing protein per square meter. Your Food, Your Farma – anticipating the age of personalized nutrition. As biometric and genomic data help us better understand our bodies, Spirulina Maker’s integrated “Farma” platform (a service ecosystem that braids hardware, software, wetware, and farmware) will prescribe you a tailored culture, cross-referencing personal nutritional, medical, or microbial information with your self-determined wellness and performance goals.

Breadcrumbs [KitchenAid Home Bioreactor] It’s Post-burger night – named for Mark Post the physician and tissue engineer. It’s grown ex vivo, flavored by predictable patterns of spice use and mineral, reddening beet juice and saffron likens the Salisburian patty to carcass. Meaty. Fetal cow serum and a little lichen media feed in my KitchenAid home bioreactor. Breadcrumbs bind twenty thousand helices of muscle fibre – a paisley-braided badge of artisanal science and nature’s dominion over nature to honor and savor: say grace and god bless the supply chain.

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//////////////// The creation of Samsø Energy Island is a story of an ambitious project, and the people of a small community coming together to achieve it.

PHOTOS: LOTTE RYSTEDT

How the Island of Samsø came together to create a 100% sustainable future

When we talk about game changers, we’re often thinking of a person who rewrote the rules, or changed the way we understood and acted within a specific field. It’s hard to deny that certain people have been essential for inciting a particular change – think Ghandi or Steve Jobs – but working on a grand scale is not a prerequisite. Sometimes the best success stories begin in the most unlikely places, started by individuals or small groups with a simple passion driving them. A prime example of large-scale game changing from an unlikely source occurred on the Danish island of Samsø, where the whole community came together to transition to using 100% renewable energy. Denmark-based alternative business school Kaospilot has followed their journey with great interest, and several students from Kaospilot have also been involved. It only seemed natural, since the project embodied Kaospilot’s own mantra so well. Kaospilot founder Uffe Elbæk once coined “Change the Game” as a tagline for the school. It was intended to serve as a calling, something to aspire to – but perhaps also as a standard for the work being done at the institution. Fast Company founder, Alan Webber pointed out during a meeting with Kaospilot that changing the game requires understanding the game, and being clear about which game it is that you are trying to revolutionize. In that case, Samsø’s ambition to become 100% sustainable couldn’t be any more on the mark than today, an age where concerns over climate change are more prevalent than ever. Samsø might be a small island, but their story is primed for global impact.

PHOTOS: ERIK PAASCH JENSEN

Never Greener

By lotte rysteDt anD c h r is t er w in D el ø v-l iDzél iu s

Although some met the challenge with initial skepticism, their doubts did not last long thanks to the leadership of Søren Hermansen. Born and bred on Samsø, Hermansen is well versed in the history of the island, the people, and their mentality, and knew how to reach out to them. “Without Søren, this would never have succeeded,” says Jørgen Schjødt Jensen. Jensen is a traditional farmer, and runs his farm right beside the Energy Academy lead by Hermansen. The Academy is a non-profit energy organization that developed and continues to implement the renewable energy project. About 4,000 to 6,000 guests from all over the world visit the Energy Academy annually, interested in learning how Samsø became sustainable and self-sufficient. The wind turbines and other technology are not only a good investment in terms of sustainability and energy savings, but they also encourage tourism and increase the overall prosperity on the island. The transition to renewable energy took place over 10 years. The Danish government created a competition to see which municipality could become the first Danish community that worked entirely off of renewable energy. The people of Samsø made a detailed plan of which technologies would be used to make it happen, and they won the competition, along with the support of the Danish government. “I have always worked in sustainability, so when this project came up it was obvious to me that I wanted to work on it” says Hermansen. He recalls how winning over the confidence of the public and securing the proper

/////////// technology were the most challenging parts: “We had the expertise in the sustainability realm, so that was not so hard to get started. The real challenge was to get as many of the islanders on board as possible” The result of the cumulative effort that went into the project is visible on the landscape itself. 10 off-shore wind turbines were built and are now compensating for the transport sector’s energy consumption. The island’s electricity consumption is now powered by 11 megawatts of on-land wind turbines, and space heating is supplied from heat pumps, biomass boilers, and solar thermal power. But before these turbines saw the light of day, many community meetings were held to get residents on board. “We like to be transparent with our plans, especially when we implement new projects,” Hermansen explains. “It’s great that someone has a vision, but in reality, we need to address the concerns of the community. Every time we implement something new, we are met, of course, with some skepticism. But I think this helps us optimize the plans.” Jensen, as a conventional farmer who took over the business from his parents, was one of the skeptics. He is now semi-retired, but up until five years ago he grew Samsø potatoes, famous in Denmark for their quality. He remembers when the first steps to the energy island project were taken: “I didn’t entirely oppose the project, but I definitely didn’t think that it was the golden egg it turned out to be! The sooner you get going on a project like this, the better it is, because then others can copy you.” Jensen also points out that the islanders have a history of being the ones to make change first, and this is part of the reason why the project turned out so well. Hermansen agrees. “Because we are on the outskirts a bit, people here have always known that they had to be a little bit better than the rest in order to keep up,” he says. “So the farmers have been ahead of the times with the development of their processes, for keeping cattle and developing high quality crops.”

// About 4,000 to 6,000 guests from all over the world visit the Energy Academy annually, interested in learning how Samsø became sustainable and self-sufficient. //

over how it would look and sound. These discussions have also taken place on Samsø, but admittedly not to an extent that could endanger the project. One reason for this is the ownership of the turbines: some have private owners, while others are owned by a turbine association or the municipality. “You could say that it is antisocial if one person has to look at the turbine right next to his property and someone else is earning money from it. This arrangement overcomes that. And for some reason, your own turbine just looks nicer,” Hermansen explains. There have also been some unexpected outcomes from Samsø being envisioned as a fully “green” island, such as the island’s appeal to entrepreneurial, visionary people. Johannes Loeb, for example, is a young farmer who moved to Samsø to live out his dream of creating an organic, community-supported farm. He started his farm with a friend – a Kaospilot alumni – and they are currently in their second season. Loeb grows more than 100 different types of vegetables. The members of his community-supported farm pay in advance of the harvest, and then come by to pick up the crops once a week. The amount of vegetables they get to take home depends on the yield, and this system allows the farmer to share the risks with the community. “It is great to be on an island where there is a culture for change,” he says. “I value the idealism here, and the willingness to do something different. When people see pioneers of a certain concept succeeding, they are more likely to take the leap into the unknown. We have experienced great support for our farm. We have 40 families who are part of our community, and they share in both the benefits and risks with us.” Tamsin Fabricius is one of the members of Johannes’ farm, and works in marketing for ExamVision, a company that produces patented magnifying glasses on the island. Both Fabricius and Loeb leverage the island’s success story in order to sell more products, and it works well for both of their brands. Hermansen is thrilled by the support that both island natives and newcomers have shown. His next challenge is figuring out how to position the island as an example for other communities to free themselves of fossil fuel usage. “I want Samsø to be a small part of a larger project. If this island can be an example, it can be scaled up to work for Denmark as a whole, spread to the rest of Scandinavia, and even to all of Europe or other parts of the world.” To help accomplish this, Hermansen has given talks around the world in countries like Japan and lectures at MIT and Stanford University. But his work is far from over. “We have come a long way, and we have a lot farther to go.” Jensen agrees that getting the word out is essential, and Hermensen is the ideal spokesperson to do this. “You need to be able to talk to all kinds of people in a language they understand with a task like this. And Søren can do that. Whether it’s the pope in Rome, or anyone of us.” From the top of his hill, Jensen counts the wind turbines that he can see: 18. And he doesn’t mind the sight at all. “You see, that’s nature making electricity for us.” //// Lotte Rystedt is a journalist and communications officer at Kaospilot. Christer Windeløv-Lidzélius is the principal of Kaospilot.

PHOTOS: MALENE LUNDÉN

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“We are somewhat famous now,” adds Jensen. “We grow good vegetables, and now we are also ‘the renewable energy island.’ Whenever I meet people from other places, they have heard about us ‘Samsings’ because of the project, and I’m proud of that.” Hermansen appreciates that Jensen, along with the vast majority of the island’s 4,000 inhabitants, have embraced being “The Energy Island.” He emphasizes the support as a key to its success, and how, in order to really be a game changer, you need the goodwill of the whole community that you are trying to change. He also points out that it takes patience and time: “People, especially here, need to sleep on it before they jump into new initiatives. If you don’t give people enough time to think the decisions and changes through, there is a much larger risk of setbacks happening.” Another hurdle can often come down to aesthetics. In other locations in Denmark, there have been great discussions when a wind turbine was to be placed on someone’s field or near private property, due to concerns

Umbra Shift is an extension of Umbra that focuses on contemporary influences in the design community. The result is a collection that expresses diverse points of view, yet sits together with a shared belief in ideas that are functional, familiar and forward thinking.

Learn more about our design collaborators at umbrashift.com

@umbrashift

Let’s Get

Why is e-commerce rebuilding the brick-and-mortar store? By Mira BluMenthal anD John wither

In a time when there is a new disruptive technology almost every week and Oxford Dictionary’s Word of the Year is an emoji, some retailers are harking back to old habits and returning to an offline, analog way of selling – the brick-and-mortar store. Major corporations, including Amazon, Warby Parker, and Frank and Oak among many others, are turning to the traditional terrain of yesteryear to sell through to the consumer of tomorrow.

So why would these digital wunderkinds forgo their low-cost advantage for the capital-intensive confines of the physical shop? Answers aren’t hard to find. Among the many listed, a quick Google search will grant you answers such as: “big data,” “groundfloor market research,” and “a more holistic customer experience.” All are valid points; ones both agreeable and cemented by fact. However, while C-suite philosophers and marketing mavens can mull over the business implications of such a move, we prefer to look at this topic through the more psychoanalytical lens of abundance. As noted by Warby Parker co-CEO Neil Blumenthal (no relation to author), the spectacle company’s reasoning for their diversification is to become “medium agnostic”:

PHOTOS: NICHOLAS ECKHART

Physical

a strategy they implemented to hedge against the uncertain future of retail spending. While Millennials once flocked with cybernetic shopping carts to the aisles of e-commerce, Blumenthal admits that the coming years will be unpredictable, with customers becoming increasingly enigmatic in their consumption habits. Consumer volatility is inherent; and abundance plays a fundamental role in its growth. In his book A Whole New Mind: Why Right Brainers Will Change The Future, author Daniel Pink speaks to abundance as it pertains to a marketplace inundated with too many like-minded offerings. Scarcity is nonexistent, and it drives businesses to add perceptual benefits to their products in order to create distinction. But abundance has gone beyond the threshold of Ford Model-T’s and low-sodium soup brands, and has permeated our everyday existence through the ill-effects of abundant choice. Whether it’s the posts we read on social media, or which four-star taco joints we frequent for lunch posted on Yelp, consumption has become a primarily self-curated task – and one Millennials continue to grow weary of. A golden era of globalized access to information and goods has led to a renaissance of simplicity. More than ever before, consumers are throwing caution to the wind to exchange options for solutions. Take the rise of Bar Roulette, noir cafes, and surprise subscription services, for example. In each, uncertainty becomes the centerpiece of the experience itself. For Bar Roulette, the user leaves their evening in the hands of an advanced algorithm, one that uses Yelp reviews and Uber to secretly determine how they’ll spend their night out. For noir cafes, it’s the customers who choose the red, green, or blue options and blindly eat what’s given to them. Or how about Blue Apron’s increasing ownership of the American pantry? The food subscription service goes beyond just delivering fresh produce; it provides families easy-to-follow recipes for every night of the week. With each taking minimal time to prepare, the food curation company unburdens parents from the predetermination, procurement, and extensive preparation required to feed their family a time- and health-conscious meal. What was once a smorgasbord of options has become a Roman holiday of over-indulgence and choice; we have such an abundance of choice that we actively ask for alleviation. To some degree, the retail experience offers restriction; stores refine an abundant array of product offerings into those most acutely relevant to the given moment and predetermined consumer. From their mega-bunkers of big data, e-commerce giants creep the most ordered items and place them within retail proximity. This back-end brainwork bakes parameters into the shopping experience, allowing users to focus on the functional needs of a product as opposed to the 23 cents saved by signing up for another site’s “exclusive” offer and using an introductory coupon. And can you blame consumers? Psychologists and data scientists alike have noted the ill-effects of abundant access – see: Addicted to Distraction by Tony Schwartz or Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink. Gladwell aptly alludes to the tyranny of abundance when he notes that experts across a variety of disciplines make better decisions through instinctive judgments rather than performing large-scale data dissection akin to an intellectual tracheotomy.

// A golden era of globalized access to information and goods has led to a renaissance of simplicity. //

When we do finally make a decision, it’s often fraught with insecurity. “Analysis paralysis,” as the ludologist would say, ensues. Now, that’s a problem; not just for the consumer, but for the business itself. Indecision breeds cost – returns, shipping fees, overhead, even opportunity cost. Some chains even go as far as to centralize their offering around this cost reduction. Bonobos, the online men’s apparel company, uses their retail stores just as an exercise in proper fitting. Customers come to find the right size and leave the store “hands free.” This indecision isn’t only attributed to abundance though; it’s a symptom of modern work. Back in the early 1900s, piecework was the predominate means of employment. Make the part, attached it to another part, sell the car. A beginning, a middle, and an end; all knew when the job was done. Jump 70 years or so, and you have what Peter Drucker coined as “knowledge work”; unrestricted labor where the end product is a determinant on the individual themselves. How can you know which is the “right” ad to run? How do you know this is the “best” software to purchase? How do you know which is the “proper” way to train employees? This absence of a defined line, coupled with overabundance, becomes catalytic to consumer indecisiveness. As such, it’s really no wonder that e-commerce is flocking to retail as a means of offline salesmanship. Brick-and-mortar offers the prescriptive medicine to not only liberate the shopping experience, but to re-inspire it. Consumers can kinesthetically browse a tailored selection of two-breasted blazers – rather than the infinite reaches of e-space – and make an informed decision. And not only that, they can peruse the highly-curated store for additional offerings they they might enjoy; not just ones dictated to them by a complex algorithm. Retail can strike a balance between the beliefs of the internet and the faces of modern consumerism; they have the ability to offer choice, while allowing consumers to choose for themselves. By doing so, a new wave of onlinedwindling Millennials can be addressed – or at least prepared for, as foresight becomes a foundational principle for the future of retail. //// Mira Blumenthal is an editor at Idea Couture. John Wither is a senior innovation analyst at Idea Couture.

What lessons have you learned from applying user-centric design to solve complex global problems? I went and worked with the State Department on the electric reconstruction of Iraq, and that was really fascinating because so much went wrong. What was really fantastic about it is that I worked with really smart people, and you see this intersection of trying to solve problems with design and engineering with politics, media, foreign aid, security, and many others. Despite the challenges, it really taught me a lot about design, because, fundamentally, it is about solving a problem and you have to think about the whole system rather than focusing only on the product – whether it is a water pump or a power plant. What are some of your challenges as the CEO of D-Rev? It is very exciting but pretty challenging. In the early days of D-Rev, the thinking was that if we create these really great products, they would have an impact. But you have to think about the system, what you need, how the product will get to them, how they are going to use it, and making sure they want to use it for a long time. When I did my research, it was often called the enabling environment, an environment that fosters entrepreneurship and product development. How do you choose which healthcare projects to work on? We are always bounded by the resources we have, but we aim to work on problems that have been identified by users. This isn’t usually how health and global projects are tackled. Often in the global health innovation community, things start in the laboratory and then they get pushed out into the field. We try to have doctors on the ground and local experts to say, “Hey! This is a problem!” With our first project, Brilliance, we worked with an Indian doctor who mentioned the need for phototherapy to treat jaundice babies. He said, “Everyone is focusing on the big picture, but we have kids who have brain damage and are dying simply because of jaundice.” I feel really passionate about working on projects that users identify, because if you are providing a solution and working with them and really trying to understand their needs, their desires, and their priorities, then you’re not convincing anyone to use the product. You are fulfilling a gap and a need and, ideally, if you design it well, they will buy it and they will use it.

D-Rev CEO Krista Donaldson is proving user-centric design is the way towards affordable healthcare

By Marina anDreazi

From contact lenses to prosthetic knees, consumers use price as a helpful guide when it comes to evaluating the quality of medical devices. But in an industry where price means quality, what happens to the needs of those making under $4 a day, for whom paying for a $20,000 prosthetic knee would be unfathomable? Does affordability necessarily lead to a compromise in quality? To D-Rev, a product development non-profit focused on designing and delivering world-class, affordable health technologies, there is no compromise. And they mean it: D-Rev’s top-of-line prosthetic knee successfully launched for just $80. How is that possible? According to CEO Krista Donaldson, a keen focus on users and ecosystems, rather than product, from early stages of development ensures the device will fulfil a human need, while still being commercially viable and scalable. Though she is a self-proclaimed engineer and designer with a knack for early-stage prototyping, Donaldson’s impeccable track record at KickStart International, IDEO, a U.S. Department of State, and Stanford University provided her with the multifaceted expertise required for companies tackling complex global issues. Donaldson spoke to MISC about the possibilities and challenges of D-Rev’s mission to defy the natural laws of the medical device industry, and prove user-centric design can be a powerful catalyst for quality and affordable global healthcare.

PHOTOS: D-REV

The True Cost of Design

How do you ensure your healthcare projects are well executed? It’s about promoting user-centric design and making sure that we truly understand the problems. Many times when problems are communicated to designers, it is at a very specific level. One of the doctors we talked to in Indonesia asked if we considered designing a low-cost X-ray machine that doesn’t use any chemicals and that could be digital.

I asked her, “What is the problem?” and she said, “We need an x-ray machine.” And I said, “No. What is the problem?” It turned out she couldn’t diagnose kids with TB at her clinic. I think, as designers, we can help key opinion leaders and gatekeepers really hone in on what the actual issues are. Sometimes this even leads to finding an existing solution that is perhaps better than they realized. How did your competitors react to D-Rev? Initially, we had some really interesting reactions. We’ve gotten responses from some of the major players, including “Don’t touch our markets,” or “Hey, let’s work together. Oh wait, we don’t want to work together, you might be a competitor.” In India, some of our competitors have been forced to drop their prices a little to compete with us. We also recently won a tender with the Kenyan government, beating out 16 other bids from major players, including GE, to supply phototherapy and infant care systems to Kenyan public hospitals. But we’re often not competing with the more established players. We’re really serving a hospital market that otherwise just wouldn’t have access to quality devices. And I think that is why we peacefully exist with some of the real market leaders who might otherwise have felt threatened. We’re on a mission to help patients who need the product but can’t afford them. How would other industries find value in a user-centric approach? Design thinking and a user-centric approach to thinking about problems – to tackling solutions in a thoughtful way that considers the ecosystem – is really powerful. Any time people have any kind of experience with a business or industry where they feel frustrated or stressed, it presents an opportunity. Ultimately, whether you are non-profit or for-profit, [this mindset] pays off. There is a return on this investment, whether it is impact or financial. With the proliferation of the value of design thinking to businesses – and as many large organizations embrace and invest in its possibilities – why do you believe so many fail at successfully implementing this mindset? What can happen with companies is that they have an early success, and then think they are done. I think they feel they need to have completion, but with good design, you are in this continual search for improvement until you feel you’ve satisfied the user needs that are being addressed. We want to be able to push the industry, push the state of healthcare, and push patients towards this mindset. I would love to see companies continually pushing and iterating and being relentless in their pursuit of excellence in serving users. //// Marina Andreazi is a psychologist and the director of Idea Couture Brazil.

Tomorrow will be unlike today. We are living in an age of ambition, optimism, and radical, positive transformation. If we put purpose to business, apply creativity to technology, support ideas with pragmatism, and are thoughtful and deliberate about the world we create, then tomorrow won’t just be unlike today— it will be better.

We need to reexamine the origins of all our assumptions and test them across a wide range of possible futures. Honest thought will be uncomfortable. Rigorous reflection may expose our fragilities. Straight dialogue can be difficult. Plunging in and taking stock of uncertainty may make us feel vulnerable. But, ultimately, we emerge more resilient.

re/imagine

re/think

Fiona Hughes, Resident MD

Kirstin Hammerberg, Head of Strategy, Brand

Working to improve healthcare for patients around the world

Creating meaningful brands for the uncertainties of tomorrow

LONDON / SAN FRANCISCO / NEW YORK / SHANGHAI / TORONTO / MEXICO CITY / SÃO PAULO

re/imagine

re/think

Michael Wandelmaier, UX Design Lead

Nicholas Partridge, Senior Innovation Strategist

Using human connections and creative play to design innovative experiences.

Helping consumers turn their best intentions into positive actions

LONDON / SAN FRANCISCO / NEW YORK / SHANGHAI / TORONTO / MEXICO CITY / SÃO PAULO

By esther rogers

Industrial machines. Flight. The internet. These were all big, impactful game changers with a lot of moving parts and a complexity that only the most expert of us could fully understand. But what if the next game changer isn’t nearly as complex? While Baby Boomers have long shown a love of excess – big houses, big cars, big closets – Millennials and Gen Z-ers are demonstrating an increased interest in minimalism and frugalness, returning to simpler times. Forbes recently stated in “Millennials: Double Trouble for Retail” that “36% [of millennials] say they are only buying things they feel are necessary (for which only one-third say they will pay full price).”

Suburban homes are giving way to 300-square foot micro condos; biking is replacing cars; closets are smaller. In November 2015, New York City’s first microapartment rentals at Carmel Place started taking reservations for suites ranging from a meager 260 to 360 square feet. Quality, however, is not being skimped on; this demographic wants slick, well-crafted, and energy efficient homes. Looking at these trends points at an apparent case of consumption fatigue centered around one concern: Why have so much stuff weighing you down? If we’re heading towards paring down our lives, the next big game changer could very well come from simpler times, where the emphasis is on the quality of the experience – especially when it comes to our entertainment.

Real Virtual Reality

Pen and Paper

Big Fashion Goes Local

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Virtual reality is often touted as the next big thing that’s just itching to blow up. For anyone that ever donned an Oculus Rift headset, this is understandable. The experience is, admittedly, very cool, and it will no doubt seep its way into our homes much like Nintendo did in the 80s. But a more novel idea of in-person experiences can already be seen with the popularity of escape games. Instead of entering into a fake virtual reality, it is a tangibly constructed creation – brick-and-mortar style. Or take bombastic blockbusters into consideration. The industry went so effectscrazy, that many films in 2015 (such as Mad Max: Fury Road and Star Wars: The Force Awakens) made a concerted effort to use practical effects wherever possible, and to great success. Audiences are making their point: they want to see real things. This could greatly impact the way we consume entertainment. Could telling tales around a fire become important again? That may be a stretch, but a lot of inspiration can be taken from live theater. Imagine Mad Max meets Hamlet, or being in the center of a controlled car chase, surrounded by impressive practical effects, as the next iteration of escape games. Eventually, Virgin Galactic will launch just about anyone into space, but if this were made into an interactive story you can live through (complete with a “Houston, we have a problem” narrative), how much more exciting would that be?

Let’s not discount print just yet either; it might go the way of vinyl eventually. Although we have the power to carry thousands of songs in the palm of our hand, the popularity of typically hipster fads like old record players and quote-covered journals harken back to our love of something retro and our nostalgia sensibilities. And it won’t just be the hipsters partaking. As the ill effects of tablet use on sleep patterns and melatonin levels become more apparent, e-readers could face taking the backseat to books again (and who can beat that smell?) However, buying books for a single read may not be very popular as we become increasingly environmentallyconscious. Enter the library, which could very well enjoy a second renaissance. The drawback? Getting your hands on that latest best-seller could mean a months-long waiting list. But imagine Barnes & Noble offering a flat-rate borrowing service, guaranteeing the hottest title’s availability within a week? Apps like Texture already offer this type of service for magazines on tablets, giving access to hundreds of the most popular titles for a flat rate of $9.99 a month, and Amazon Prime members can borrow an ebook for free every month. But if we really want to save our eyesight and melatonin levels, good old fashioned paper will be the preferred alternative to technology-fatigue – and a way to increase foot fall in bookstores.

A few decades ago, shopping in Paris would have been a dream and a chance to bring back something unique. Now, every major shopping district is lined with the same handful of brands, offering the same products, and – depending on the exchange rate – not always at the best deals. This could lead to increased interest in seeking out small businesses to get more genuine experiences. That’s great news for local shops, but there’s an even bigger opportunity here for big and small alike. Imagine a Zara with capsule collections unique to the culture of their geographical locations; Gap stores that don’t look so cookie-cutter, but instead incorporate local aesthetics of their prospective country. Global food chains have long since included locally-influenced items on their menus – McArabia, anyone? – but the same practice is hardly commonplace for fashion. Collaborating with local brands and designers could alleviate concerns about misrepresenting a culture, and the support for homegrown talent would be lauded. Throw ethical production into the mix – perhaps using techniques local to the region – and Big Fashion doesn’t seem quite so callous and predictable anymore. Shopping in Paris is unique once again.

Sure, we were pretty impressed with the first effects-heavy 3D movies. We loved storing hundreds of books on a simple device we could carry around anywhere. We even eagerly awaited the opening of the 40,000 square foot Topshop flagship store in New York City in 2014. But the honeymoon phase is showing signs of waning, and our flashy new products just don’t hold the same magic they once did. But it’s still easy to catch someone – eyes closed and smiling softly – as they flip through an old book, smelling the pages. ////

PHOTO: QUINN DOMBROWSKI

Will the next game changer be something we already know – and love?

PHOTO: ANDREE KRÖGER

Back to the Future

Esther Rogers is the managing editor of MISC.

// The honeymoon phase is showing signs of waning, and our flashy new products just don’t hold the same magic they once did. //

Improving the Course of Public Health: The Hidden Game Changers

Events that change the course of public health make for great storytelling; they are both truly fascinating and deeply insightful. Behind these stories are often critical thinkers who do not accept protocol when it deviates from our experienced reality or who pursue unique and insightful questions to answers rather than going after the status quo. Many so-called game changers in health are highly celebrated, while others seem to fall by the wayside and are acknowledged with less rigor than their contributions would dictate. While there can be countless reasons – both social and political – behind this lack of acknowledgement, their discoveries remain highly motivating. The examples they set provide present day catalysts for questioning what does and does not make sense, exploring ideas with passion and persistence, and continually asking: “What if…?”

It All Really Started in Iran

What Herxheimer Saw

A Woman and Two Men

Seek the Hidden

Those studying public health and medicine surely know the names of Hippocrates (yes, the oath) and Galen (yes, Galenics), but far fewer have understood the impact of the Persian clinician Zakariya al-Razi. His insights into public health are exceeded by few, driven by his willingness to counter the authoritative works of Galen with logic and his own experiences. He observed a different clinical course of fevers than Galen, and pointed out when his observations were based on hundreds of cases versus a single few that informed Galen's impressions. He discovered alcohol and its utility, was the first to distinguish smallpox from measles, and the first to relate the scent of a rose with hay fever. There are accounts that al-Razi wrote the first home medical manual for the public that could be consulted for the treatment of common ailments. Considered by many scholars as the greatest physician of the Middle Ages, he certainly would have made today’s magazine lists of “World’s Best Doctors,” with the only problem being whether he would be classified as an infectious disease specialist (for his smallpox treatise), a pediatrician (he wrote the first textbook on pediatrics), an ophthalmologist (he created the first medicinal eye drops), or urologist (he was the first to describe the modern treatment of kidney stones). Maybe he was the first real GP.

There are several approaches to drug therapy, often involving two biological mechanisms to obtain a desired therapeutic effect. One such approach involves drugs that dilate the bronchial tubes in obstructive airway diseases by stimulating one branch of our autonomic nervous system (the sympathetic branch, or “whip of the heart”), and inhibiting another (the parasympathetic branch, or “leash of the heart”). Today, combination bronchodilators containing both of these substances have a US market size of about 1 billion dollars. And, while we like to think this was driven by great modern-day pharmaceutical science, an interesting experiment by the German physician Dr. Karl Herxheimer is seldom credited. In a 1959 article in The British Medical Journal, his method of mixing sympathomimetic ephedrine with parasympatholytic atropine was described, which measured lung function and documented improvement. While his method was not as sophisticated as the inhalers we see today (but instead delivered atropine in a laced cigarette), it was nonetheless a clever approach for the time.

The groundbreaking science that defines the pharmaceutical industry is seldom sprinkled with accolades that are associated with achievements in academia. That all changed in 1988, when Gertrude Elion, George Hitchings, and Sir James Black were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine. Elion and Hitchings were true pioneers whose work resulted in groundbreaking medicine for herpes, leukemia, malaria, gout, immune disorders, HIV infection, and organ transplant acceptance, while Black advanced the concept of chemicals working through receptors that resulted in novel treatments for hypertension and ulcers. Elion was also one of the rare women to win a Nobel Prize, and even more rare that she did so without earning her doctorate. Despite their coveted prize and achievements, the true game changing nature of their life's work remains hidden to most – alarming, considering their work affects so many people in the world.

Al-Razi changed the way medicine is practiced on several fronts, yet few physicians know of his examples of critical thinking and diverse skills. The thousands of physicians who prescribe combination bronchodilators and the industry scientists who capitalized on the concept with a market exceeding $1 billion have no clue of Herxheimer's experiments in Berlin. The work of Elion, Hitchings, and Black helped more people feel better and saved more lives than any other Nobel Prize winner. While their greatest accomplishments were in their life's work, we must uncover these hidden game changers, and understand and celebrate their passion, insights, and successes. They may not be finished educating us just yet. ////

PHOTO: DR. TED WITEK

B y D r. t e D w i t e k

Dr. Ted Witek is a senior fellow at the Institute of Health Policy, Management, and Evaluation at the University of Toronto Dalla Lana School of Public Health, and senior vice president of corporate partnerships at Theravance.

// We must uncover these hidden game changers, and understand and celebrate their passion, insights, and successes. //

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In popular media, the US has shifted away from notions of the Leave It to Beaver nuclear family to popularized broods like the Kardashians or shows like Modern Family,

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The future of the family is a conversation that either polarizes or disarms the private sector, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike. Over the past half century, the notion of the nuclear family has been elevated to mythological status. We’ve been pressured to design our policies, products, and lives around an idea of family that never really existed in the first place. What little truth there may have been is disappearing fast – and there is no alternative. While the fallout is imminent, the evolution of the family is still widely ignored in everyday conversations. It’s too complex, too emotional, too sensitive – but now, as we consider the future, it’s entirely unavoidable.

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both indicative of changing cultural norms. And, while the public might recognize that popular media reflects a true shift away from traditional or normative family structures, the discussion generally tends to focus on social issues such as gender, race, or sexuality. This dialogue misses the true driver: our notion of the American family is not waning because of more progressive values, but is instead shifting due to economic constraints. A two-class system is emerging in the US between those who have the resources to create an “ideal family,” and those who do not. And so comes the unthinkable: Americans are no longer able to afford their idealized notions of family. We’ve anchored our notion of the “ideal family” to universal rights that are currently being challenged: Americans want to have the choice to marry, the ability to be parents, and time to spend with their kids. Due to

socioeconomic constraints, however, these rights are no longer a given for the majority of American families. And although discussions around these topics are not new, they are still important. For the next decade, they will define how we design for, communicate to, govern, engage with, and define families. Forecasts that project the continuation of current trends highlight the types of issues that are most pressing for businesses and the public sector to address today. They can also act as a starting point to inspire preferred futures. It’s our hope that, by curating this one view of the future, we’re able to pull into focus the tensions surrounding marriage, manhood, and time that the US must address in order to develop a healthier, more accessible notion of family. Herman Kahn said, “the most likely future isn’t,” and in this case, we hope he’s right.

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It’s traditionally one of the foundations of family life; about half of the US population partakes in it, many of whom take it for granted without a second thought. And while the right to marry will ostensibly continue to exist in the future for all US citizens, it will increasingly be seen as an act reserved for the wealthy or elite, for those who can afford it even if they don’t need it. Much like a luxury car. Today, marriage already reflects social mobility and privilege – the “haves” (the 10% with the best education and highest income) are still marrying en masse before starting families. The “have nots” are not. So how will this play out over the next 20 years? Pew Research Center has reported extensively about a “marriage gap” among Americans: “A new ‘marriage gap’ in the United States is increasingly aligned with a growing income gap. Marriage, while declining among all groups, remains the norm for adults with a college education and a good income, but is now markedly less prevalent among those on the lower rungs of the socioeconomic ladder.” It’s evident that marriage is declining in general, but the well-educated and well-off are still opting to do it, while poor, uneducated groups are not.

FOR RICHER OR RICHER

PHOTO: HENRY ALVA

TH E D E C LI N E O F FO R MAL PARTN E R S H I P M O D E LS

The “haves” are still marrying en masse before starting families. The “have nots” are not.

As The Economist explains, “Highly educated, financially independent women were once among the least likely to get hitched. Now, they are getting married at a faster rate than their lesser-educated peers, and often to highly educated men. These unions are not only the most common, but also the most harmonious… the marriage market is ultimately like any market: people buy in if the price is right.” Structurally, marriage makes sense for partnerships of women and men in higher socioeconomic classes as a way of preserving individual wealth and gaining dual investment power.

In the past, marriage was seen as a stepping-stone to stability. Young couples got married in hopes of creating a solid foundation for their future together; it was a means to an end. These days, marriage is increasingly considered the end goal, a status symbol. It is no longer a realistic or beneficial partnership if you can’t afford to move out of your parents’ house, or your spouse-to-be is underemployed. It is something you do once you have “made it.”

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But if less people are marrying anyway, why does marriage even matter when we think of the future of the family? Is marriage actually a necessity for a successful family life and children, or is it merely a status symbol? That depends on where you’re looking. In European countries, domestic partnerships tend to be long-lasting and, as a result, tend to yield happy, well-adjusted children. In the United States, however, there is a strong correlation between secure, traditional marriages and a child’s success. Researchers have found that the stronger the parents’ marriage, the more stable their son’s or daughter’s childhood will be. According to the Princeton Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, only half of parents who were unmarried during the birth of their child were still together five years later. Moreover, as Richard Reeves of the Brookings Institution explains, “two-parent households are less likely to raise children in poverty, since two potential earners are better than one… More than half of children

in poverty – 56.1 percent, to be exact – are being raised by a single mother.” The interconnectedness of solid marriages, economic stability, and children’s success is proving that it is not an irrelevant right; it can be downright essential for society as a whole. The decline of marriage has been popularly attributed to modern day society sinners or newly defined gender roles, but this shift has less to do with new values, and more to do with new economics. As we continue on this trajectory, it’s likely that Americans will still want to marry, and will continue to feel attached to the ideal of marriage; they just won’t be able to afford it. Eventually, this can lead to a class war. No longer will we be bickering over who has the nicest house or vehicle, but rather who has access to what we have considered a basic fundamental right for generations. It’s a class war of the worst kind.

She always had visions of a fairy tale wedding. Maybe it came from years of watching vintage reruns of Say Yes to the Dress, or perhaps it was knowing that her mom, dad, and grandparents all said the same vows that made that day so special. In her family, a wedding was considered an entry point to everlasting love. It was timeless. Amanda’s parents made the choice to take on the burden of financing a traditional college experience for one reason only, and it wasn’t for her degree. But, these days, romance was best served after a suitor and his genome were properly vetted. She was actually introduced to Alex through a genomics dating site. However, during the past few years, she’d been busy juggling her relationship, school, and way too many extracurriculars – which made it all the more special that today was finally the big day.

Is marriage actually a necessity for a successful family and children, or is it merely a status symbol?

PHOTO: LARRY D. MOORE CC BY-SA 3.0

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In Promises I Can Keep: Why Poor Women Put Motherhood Before Marriage, Kathryn Edin and Maria Kefalas argue that “marriage is a form of social bragging about the quality of the couple’s relationship, a powerfully symbolic way of elevating one’s relationship above others in a community, particularly in a community where marriage is rare.” So if, in the future, only the wealthiest Americans can have access to the “ideal” family life, a class war over the right to marry is imminent.

After all the time and dedication she’d put into wedding planning, she hoped it would be an affair to remember – an unforgettable embodiment of true love, and an inspiration to other guests who were still on the fence about saying “I do.” As her VR-certified makeup artist finalized the last hi-def elements of her look, Amanda gave thanks to God for giving her this experience.

The past months had been stressful. “Marriage for Humanity” gave them a tried Amanda was taking six courses at Ole Miss and true format to follow, but of course the and organizing Alejandra’s wedding at the KDs had stretched the budget to ensure same time. But she could not feel more that Alejandra and Saul got all the bells secure in the fact that she had chaired and whistles of a proper wedding. After all, Kappa Delta’s participation in “Marriage for KD girls were known for throwing the best Humanity.” She was the one who had conevents on campus. They even crowdfunded nected both groups. “Marriage for Humanity” an unexpected shower and bachelorette was all over her news stream and, frankly, and called in a favor from a local tailor, who she was excited by their mission: “Seeking remotely collaborated with Alejandra to turn to put God’s love into action, ‘Marriage for a hand-me-down dress into a gown meant Humanity’ brings communities together for a star. to build marriages, families, and hope.” Amanda was totally on board with the Now the big day was here for Amanda to founders’ vision to provide “simple, decent, enjoy and share with the couple. As she got and affordable weddings” to the millions of ready to enter the bride’s staging room, she Christian Americans who were unable to do pulled out a KD charm bracelet to stand so otherwise. in as the “something new.” Everything was perfect and she expected big things ahead for the happy couple.

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Life Sharing In the future, notions of the sharing economy will spread from stranger-to-stranger or friend-to-friend, and will be designed to support short or long-term partnerships. Stakeholders will invest in understanding the nuances of how unmarried couples live and share physical goods, services, assets, and roles. A greater number of products and services will be used to support intimate relationships that oftentimes have a shelf life and may need to be dissolved quickly. For businesses today How can you support relational intimacy without financially tying unmarried couples to one another?

Celebrating the Small Since the “Big Day” is not without significant financial investment, couples and families will hunt for new ways in which they can celebrate life’s moments and milestones. Some individuals or couples will one day desire a wedding, while others will view formal celebrations as a frivolous expense. Whichever option they prefer, couples will invest in celebrations that they deem authentic, worthy, and shareable. For businesses today How can you curate a range of offerings that are flexible enough to support big and small events (and spenders)?

The Parenting Showcase Customers won’t expect brands to be aspirational, but instead more inclusive and reflective of real parenting situations and needs. Companies will be forced to separate the notion of “good” parenting from being synonymous with traditional marriage partnerships. Couples and parents will look to curate sources that mirror the nuances of their lifestyle. For businesses today How can your organization shift the product design cycle to account for diverse and nuanced methods of parenting?

P R O V O C AT I O N S P R E F E R R E D

The Practical Cinderella In an unprecendented move, Americans will look to unpack and critique fairytale futures that discount their day-to-day lived experiences. They will disavow brands that focus on the happily-ever-after ending, and embrace companies who work to support them throughout life’s unexpected journeys. For many Americans, stability will mean more than committing to a marriage or owning a home. For businesses today How can your organization help partners demystify the unromantic components of living happily-ever-after at each life stage of a relationship?

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/ The Backyard is Back: Wedding industry facing collapse as more couples opt for the court house / “Keep A Ring On It”: Most downloaded app in the history the Apple Store / All all

the the

Single Mommies: rage throughout

Mom US

power

/ The “Newclear” Family: Contractor paid by US Administration of Children & Families to optimize programs for non-traditional partnership models / “Schmooze”: Hookup site for single mothers draws interest from backers (and bachelors) abroad

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A significant cultural shift is taking place. It is especially evident throughout the media landscape: the Pirelli calendar is replacing its bare supermodels with clothed femmes d’influence; Playboy has decided to put an end to nudity in its pages in a bid to remain relevant; women-centric digital news media outlets like Jezebel, The Mary Sue, and Broadly are flourishing; and a recent study of the metadata associated with 150,000 NPR stories from 2010 to 2015 found that there were five times more stories about women’s issues than men’s.

But the change is more than just media chatter and spin. Today, women earn 60% of bachelor’s degrees in the United States. Cent-by-cent, the aggregate pay gap between men and women continues to shrink. The social acumen and empathetic skills associated with women command an increasing premium in the workforce. It’s clear that the Mad Men style of bullish management and brash work culture is on the wane.

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RICH DADS MAKE BETTER MEN

There is much to celebrate in these developments, but the ascendency of women prefigures a new crisis for a new age; although a select group of men continue to occupy the highest echelons in the halls of politics and business, men in the middle are falling behind. Meanwhile, other men are more firmly mired in the lowest rungs of society. Working class men, in particular, are struggling to succeed in a post-industrial workforce and a post-patriarchal home. Most are unwilling – or, more likely, simply unable – to adapt.

THE GROWING MASCULINITY GAP BETWEEN

PHOTO: SCOTT ABLEMAN

U P P E R AN D LOW E R C LAS S AM E R I CAN S

While wealthy, well-educated men are generally open to being stay-at-home dads or sharing the role of breadwinner, fathers from low-income families are often not so inclined. Almost one third of American children are raised without an active father figure in the home. This trend is especially pronounced among the working poor, a segment of society disproportionately composed of minorities. As Pew Research Center reports, “Black fathers are more than twice as likely as white fathers to live

apart from their children (44% vs. 21%), while Hispanic fathers fall in the middle (35%).” This isn’t a race issue, however. According to research compiled by political scientist Charles Murray, white families are undergoing a similar transformation. In his book Coming Apart: The State of White America 1960-2010, Murray reports that in 1960, just 6% of births to white women with a high school diploma were nonmarital. By 2008, 44% were nonmarital. If men are struggling in vain to find their way, it might be because the roles and institutions that once lent them purpose are being steadily eroded by the march of culture and technology. Scientific advances are playing a major role and will continue to challenge basic notions of manhood as science fiction becomes science fact: researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago have been able to turn female cells from rats into sperm cells – eliminating the need for a fertile man or woman in order to reproduce; uterus transplants may make it possible for biological males to become pregnant; mitochondrial IVF allows for three biological parents, meaning monogamy and procreation may no longer go hand in hand. All of this points to a future where biological gender may no longer be a precursor to reproduction. In that future, what – if anything – makes a man a man?

Working class men are struggling to succeed in a post-industrial workforce and a postpatriarchal home.

After decades of struggle and progress for women, it might be time to shift some focus onto the plight of men. There is ample research that demonstrates how families tend to be better off if men are present and involved. Stanford psychologist Philip Zimbardo claims that having a network of men – fathers, confidantes, and mentors – is essential for boys’ development. In The Demise of Guys he writes, “there’s no question boys need men in their lives” because, with male influence, they are more likely to succeed academically, socially, and professionally. Harking back to the “extended tribal system” of yesteryear, Zimbardo tells us that boys need to be surrounded by strong male mentors in order to thrive. Yet now, more than ever, boys are isolated from adults, especially adult men. Men need to adapt to new social contexts. 13 of the 15 fastest growing jobs in America are dominated by women because they are primarily focused on caretaking – and these are the jobs of the future. In order to prepare for this, men must acclimatize to a world where they can play to their strengths while also exploring the ways in which a masculine presence can improve care, nurture, and lend an empathetic ear to others. If the accepted definitions of masculinity do not evolve, men will become less active as economic contributors to society and as role models for the next generation. In order for both marketers and policymakers to keep up with the times, they must recognize that manhood is ever-evolving and varied, much like that of present-day womanhood. Conversations around who is the “new dad” must continue, and media and marketers should challenge the traditional ideals of masculinity and support men in their quest to find new wellsprings of meaning in their lives. Men who take responsibility for themselves and their families, play active roles in caretaking, and adapt to progressive gender norms will be the men who succeed in the future. This is not a question of men versus women; it is a question of empowering both sexes to thrive as parents and professionals.

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He was already aware of the daycare; Tracy, a local legend, had received a ton of grant money to start a new early childcare program targeting local kids. Being the first of its kind, Bright Beginnings had been getting a lot of attention – some positive, some not so much – but it was a paid gig, right? He opened a live chat:

Tracy: No problem. That’s part of the program. The government is paying us to develop training for men with minimal experience in this kind of thing. Up for the challenge?

Saint: So you really think I match the criteria for your daycare?

Tracy: You’d set your own. It’s a 24-hour care facility so shifts would vary. For next steps, we’d need you to do a cognitive evaluation and provide some references.

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Tracy: Great! You saw the ad. We’re in the middle of hiring a bunch of new guys for Bright Beginnings. The pay is decent and you get dental coverage. The game system froze again. Yes, playing GTA IX was a relaxing way to start a Tuesday, but his knock-off Rift was giving him problems. Such a budget device. Every reboot meant being forced to watch a stream of pointless ads and the loss of valuable gaming time. Normally he’d only have to watch two ads at most, but ever since signing up for the free version of the Monster “Job Hunter” app, his login experience had changed. He had been laid off from maintenance about two months ago. At this point, he was strapped on any kind of spending. Finding a job was extremely hard; in this economy, a joke. He got an email from his former employer saying that his performance was fine, but it made sense to automate the role. Over the past three weeks, his credentials had matched 41 positions in the greater St. Louis area. He was even flagged as having a connection in common with some of the people he could be working for. Still, he felt he would have a better chance at a job if he were a robot.

Saint: I’m not so sure about this, I haven’t watched a kid since my upstairs neighbors moved out a few years ago…

Our kids matter. So do the people who inspire them. Join us at Bright Beginnings Daycare. We’ve heard the stats before: Only 15% of our youth graduate high school. Three in four children in our community lack a relationship with their father. The chance of a 15-year-old overdosing is 45 times more likely here than it is in the rest of the US. It’s time for a change. We can and will build a brighter future for our youth. We’re starting a new childcare center in our community and we need your help! Our mission is to provide kids with a set of diverse leaders to help them start discovering their best selves. With an equal number of male and female staff, we’re the first center to provide children with positive role models of both genders. We’re looking for permanent, full-time caretakers to

As the reboot completed, the first ad started:

work in our infant and toddler childcare program. Good news! You’ve already matched our basic criteria. Click here to submit your credentials and help change St. Louis.

Saint: What are the hours? And what would I have to do next?

Saint: That’s cool. Tracy: You’ll also have a uniform to wear to work to help manage the chaos. A legit Rift and some other tech will be provided as well to help you learn how to do things like change diapers. They also help us keep the parents happy. Saint: Will have to think about that… don’t blame the parents though. Tracy: Think it over and send me a note if you’re interested. Good luck with your GTA gameplay, the new version has some sick spacecrafts.

And with that, the next ad started to play. Saint was lost in thought. His mom told him about this job a few weeks ago. She usually didn’t have the best judgment, but he owed her rent and was getting desperate. He understood it now – what Tracy had in mind was basically a test. A test to see whether men can do as good a job as women at caring for kids. It could be cool though. Maybe even easy. And it paid.

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For businesses today How can your organization help single moms earn parenting credit with their kids?

Care-full Play Education systems favor girls, partially because they focus and sit still more easily at a young age. Just as we’ve seen a revolution in the way girls play today, in the future, parents will research and invest in play experiences to raise boys that are more likely to succeed in a postgender workplace and are not “blue-washed.” Companies will shift their focus to both build the STEM skills of girls and the care skills of boys.

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For businesses today How can your organization engage boys and young men in game and play experiences that help them build the skills desired for the jobs of the future?

Added Support, Not Substitutions Mothers running households without active partners will look for ways to augment their parenting style by linking up to networks that fill the gaps of their parenting needs. Organizations that help single parents access their personal skills and understand how it influences their children will find opportunities as trusted partners in coaching and life recommendation. These parents will seek out places and spaces that support them and their children in unexpected ways. For businesses today How can your organization build communities of support for non-normative families and single parents?

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F U T U R E S

/ Down for the Count: Knicks and Magic star defenders to both take paternity leave during playoffs / The New-Age Man: The New Masculinist grows in readership, exceeds Sports Illustrated

Serving Dad Duty Active and involved fathers will increasingly seek a seat at the table as organizations and policymakers create new products, services, and experiences for their unmet needs as dads. These men will expect to be portrayed as capable caretakers instead of the parent who’s more likely to fail on a day-to-day basis. They’ll engage with brands that help them be the best parent and partner that they can be.

/ Not-So-Absent Father: Prison systems now incentivized to offer “fathering” classes and certifications / Fathers Unite: From Walmart to Wegmans, paternity leave is the top interest in labor union and hourly employee negotiations

For businesses today How can your organization better serve the evolving needs of fathers? PHOTO: AARON BRINKER

Solidarity for Single Parents As single motherhood becomes increasingly common, moms will look to purchase products and consume media that is in a digestible format and supports them in winning back small moments of “family time.” This constituent will turn away from mommy blogs in order to access media and influencers that are reflective of their own experiences as mothers. They will expect brands to spotlight their needs through a design and communications lens.

/ Calling All Mannies: Applications for male caregivers exceed military enrollment in the US

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Scarce, fragmented, pressurized: time is what the promise of technology never delivered. Visions of technological progress leading to an abundance of leisure seem like a cruel joke from our overscheduled, overworked present. Already 80 years ago, in the midst of the Great Depression, economist John Maynard Keynes forecasted that, by 2030, technological progress would allow for a 15-hour work week with abundant leisure time. Instead, we’re trapped in never-ending feeds, streams, lists, pings, pokes, and fantasies of unlived lives. The ubiquity of mobile technology, in particular, has created a situation in which we are always-on, interrupted, and called forth by work and life demands that are becoming indistinguishable from one another. But the surprising thing is that, in comparison to previous generations, we actually have more leisure time than ever before. According to The Atlantic citing the OECD Better Life Index, “In the last century, lifelong leisure time in the US has grown significantly, due to at least three factors: (1) the decline of the workweek, which most affected men; (2) technology making housework more efficient, which most affected women; and (3) people living longer in retirement, which affected both men and women.” So what’s going on? Why does our experience of time and leisure conflict with the reality of having more than ever?

A B U N D LE OF OY!

PHOTO: LESLIE SCIENCE & NATURE CENTER

R E D U C I N G C H I L D R E N TO M AT T E R S O F I N V E ST M E N T

One factor is what economist Eric Hurst, among others, has called “leisure inequality” – the gap that mirrors the ever-growing chasm in income. It may seem obvious that increases in leisure time would be the highest for the well-off, since gains in productivity open up schedules for more free time. But, unexpectedly, increases in leisure time have been highest among the least educated and poorest men, with the highest educated having the least amount of downtime in the last 50 years. This kind of polarization seems on par with a knowledge economy that has grown opportunities for the top and bottom, while hollowing out the middle. The defining features of the knowledge economy – including flexible contracts, service-sector growth, and new demands for cognitive adaptability and emotional self-regulation – have placed pressure on families to prepare children for these demands in ways that differ depending on socioeconomic status. In strictly economic terms, the cost of raising a child has grown immensely. A child born in 2012 cost his parents $241,080 on average, over his lifetime, while families earning more than $105,000 annually can expect to spend $399,780 per child. Couple that cost with the gap in leisure inequality, and we can start to see how high-earners experience the scarcity of their leisure time with an urgency to maximize it, just like they learned to maximize the rest of their lives while reducing their exposure to risk.

We’re trapped in neverending feeds, streams, lists, pings, pokes, and fantasies of unlived lives. This results in well-off families thinking of their children in terms of their future financial stability and an accelerated accumulation of social capital. From Ivy-track preschools to private lessons for whatever appeals to an admissions committee, welloff kids’ leisure time is becoming a laundry list of externally-facing accomplishments. According to a recent Pew report, “parents with annual family incomes of $75,000 or higher are far more likely than those with lower incomes to say their children have participated in extracurricular activities.” And probably with good reason. The kinds of emotional and cognitive skills needed to succeed in the new economy take far more work, time, and investment than in years past, and with less room to skip a beat.

The ubiquity of mobile technology, in particular, has created a situation in which we are always-on, interrupted, and called forth by work and life demands that are becoming indistinguishable from one another.

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Her daughter, Adri, was about to leave for an “IRL meet-up” – a “blind date” as they called it back when she was in college – and she was kid-sitting Adam for the night. She swore that if Adri showed her one more “maximizing” technology in the apartment, she’d lose her mind. Parenting these days.

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The correlations are so strong that some scientists have begun defining poverty as a neurotoxin. By provoking the release of hormones such as cortisol, the development of the brain is adversely affected. As reported in Nature Neuroscience, a group of researchers from nine hospitals and universities studied over a thousand children, and found that variations in family income impacted the development of brain surface area by a spread of 6% between the highest and lowest income brackets. Other anxieties manifest themselves at the bottom of the socioeconomic pool too. Instead of planning every moment of their kids’ time for future payoffs, wage stagnation and debt-driven consumption create an all-pervasive sense of anxiety or dread about the future: when’s the next payment, the next shift, the next day off, the next layoff? Kids are left stranded in a no man’s land. Contributing less to the unpaid labor of household chores than generations past, but not having parents with the resources to invest in the cognitively flexible skills needed to succeed later in life, children of the working poor become economic burdens; an investment lacking resources. For the lowest earning among us, the situation is exacerbated by much more than the inability to invest in children. A recent epigenetic study found that when parents are significantly stressed during their child’s first few years of life, some of the children’s genes – involved in insulin production and brain development – are affected years later.

If we continue to feel pressure to maximize our kids’ leisure, or don’t have adequate resources and are riddled with anxiety about the future, or become consumed by a never ending work-life seesaw, what will become of the future family? Already today, caretime and work-time are collapsing, stamping out the special moments free from these imperatives. According to The Boston Globe, citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the WORLD Policy Analysis Center at UCLA, “nearly one quarter of the American private-sector workforce, some 26 million workers, doesn’t get paid time off… The United States is the only advanced economy that doesn’t guarantee paid vacation.” Talk about time being at a premium.

Parents were living in a near-constant pool of data and anxiety about the wellbeing of their children. They used research, data, and numbers to support and analyze each decision. She called it the “kid creep,” and it freaked her out to hear Adri rationalize parenting fails.

PHOTO: KELLY TEAGUE

So how are parents managing? One route for those who can afford it is for one parent to stay at home during the formative years. Indeed, almost 30% of mothers in the US with MBAs no longer work outside of the home – more than in any other industrialized country. Instead, they are choosing to stay at home and are investing in their kids as much as they can. While parental involvement is an advantage, the US culture of overperformance, stacked schedules, and endless test-taking is by no means a guarantee of success in the new economy. Ongoing debates, from professors and public educators to Obama himself, are pointing to the fact that there is a disconnect between the education system, parenting culture, and the outcomes for job success. Whatever the case, the advantage procured through the pooling of resources is less available to the economically disadvantaged, and is exacerbated by the growing marriage gap. Single, working-class parents just don’t have the same amount of options to choose from.

She thought it was bad when Adri was growing up. She was constantly on mommy blogs and pre-watching Disney movies. But now, as she looked around the room, she noted that the setup was more advanced than a counterintelligence unit. She had the power to do some serious parent reconnaissance. There were hidden monitoring devices in the most unlikely of nooks and crannies, rigged toys with sensors. Adri had even hacked the toilet after Adam was caught snacking on food from a package – god forbid – at recess. Adri was probably surveilling the school somehow too.

Like paying $2,000 out of pocket bi-weekly to have a childhood career counselor review and offer feedback on at-home footage: “Mom, it will cost me over $500,000 to send Adam to a Tier 2 college. It’s better we proactively sort out his issues today and learn about his cognitive collaboration style now.” Or the recent end of her long-term partnership due to increased personal surveillance: “Anan didn’t value Adam’s future the same way I did. He wasn’t willing to put in the work of parenting, which includes working on yourself. He wanted this all to be easy.” Or being recommended for childrearing therapy at her job: “The majority of women I work with aren’t moms. It’s not easy doing what I do. Most of the moms quit and stay home at my level. They don’t get what it takes to be successful at home and at work.” Adri wasn’t ever going to stop over-parenting; an end was nowhere in sight. So as her daughter walked her through the steps of the multisensory mood therapy she was to perform at exactly 8:43 p.m., she knew that she had made the right call. She hoped the nearby biometric monitor wouldn’t pick up on her increased heart rate or sweaty palms. It was now or never.

“Adri, I get it. The olfactory capsules need to be refreshed at least an hour before we activate the system. I will make sure to take care of it. And let’s be real, even if I happened to forget, isn’t your house programmed to create reminders for each request you make verbally?” Adri rolled her eyes as she buttoned her coat. “Mom, as I’ve told you before, it’s so I don’t have to nag. A robot nags on my behalf. I want Adam to think of me as an ally in our home.” She kissed Adri on the head, trying to hide her guilt and increasing nervousness. “Remember what I’ve always told you since Adam was born: Parenting is hard work. Sometimes you need to do what’s counterintuitive to do right by your kid.” Adri’s eyes had never looked so big. She opened the door and it began: “Adrianna Radic, we’re from Amazon’s How Not to Parent. We’ve been sent by your mom, Dina, and your previous partner, Anan, to intervene.” Cringe-worthy footage of the last month started to play.

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/ How to Be a Competitive Workplace in 2027: Provide free, on-site childcare for hourly employees

B U S I N E S S R E L E V A N C E Quality Control Parents will desire quality time, as opposed to the amount of time they spend with their kids. They will seek out tools that help them assess their current day-to-day routines and recommend when and how to build moments of connection. For businesses today How can organizations embed rituals and specialness in the products, services, and experiences they create for parentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; everyday routines?

/ Parenting for Independence: The trend in raising children to be self-sufficient

Hidden Benefits Parents will look to adopt and embed child rearing into everyday objects to reinforce the values and knowledge they find critical to the success of their children. They will opt-in to programs that lessen their sense of creep and disguise learning in the mundane.

new

/ Peace of Mind: Detroit school system partners with Facebook to build a platform, allowing parents to check on their childrenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s progress while working

For businesses today How can organizations build products and experiences that allow parents to feel like they are doing right by their kids?

/ Get Paid to Turn Off: In North Carolina, unplugging from social media while on vacation or at dinner can mean a family tax benefit

Earning Back Care Time For the past three decades, families have been directed to buy products that are convenient. In the future, parents will seek to create homes that are designed to limit their physical and mental clutter and help them earn back the right to play with their kids. Calling in Reinforcements Parents in all socioeconomic family systems will seek out trusted support options to help them navigate and negotiate childcare due to the complexity and overwhelming amount of options in systems like education and healthcare. They will have higher expectations of the quality of these systems. For businesses today How can your organization proactively build a parent feedback loop into the continual improvement and design of products, services, and experiences?

PHOTO: JAY RYNESS

For businesses today How can organizations shift their focus to ensure parents are earning back quality time?

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/ Giving Back: Employers match employee educational savings with care time

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Not only are we on the precipice of an extinction of the American family ideal, we’re moving away from ideals altogether. The idea that a universal family model will emerge in the future is a fantasy. American families have always varied from one home to the next, but now consumers have access to tools, technology, and – most importantly – ideas that they can curate to align with their own individual ideas and aspirations. In the US, a nuanced view of each individual’s dream of a family is more accessible at last, but it’s not necessarily economically viable. The simplest strategy for organizations and brands may be to maintain business as usual; however, businesses that attempt to revive a one-size-fits-all notion of family through their marketing, product design, and overall strategy are headed right for obsolescence. Despite the absence of a singular family model, a set of core tensions is emerging that will be relevant across families well into the future, regardless of differing demographics or other variables. Families will increasingly come up against new, and oftentimes unexpected, challenges that will force them to seek out support. As such, this will not be a set of values or ideals to which we aspire as in the past, but rather a series of potential solutions for the complex problems that families will continue to face. Successful brands will come to intimately know these new consumers through proactive and innovative practices.

Organizations that cater to, ease, and even start solving economic and familial complications that impact families are bound to stand out. Many will use the future as a platform for building a deep understanding of human behavior, emerging constraints, and preferred alternatives. They will foster a curiosity about how the feeling of family is manifesting differently across the US.

What are your hopes for American family life in 2027? Tweet your thoughts to @misc_mag using #Family2027

The proliferation of lifestyles and pluralized values are already challenging companies today, and new family needs will continue to emerge as a competing set of drivers and visions around the family form. The provocations set out in this feature are only a glimpse of the signals and scenarios that can to be sought out and constructed to help guide strategic efforts. Organizations that reimagine the future of the American family in terms of their challenges and successes, rather than seeking to put forward a single set of ideals, will uncover huge opportunities ripe for the taking. And the family can, once again, become a reality – or rather, many unique realities.

WELCOME EXPLORERS / INVENTORS / EXPERIMENTERS / ENTREPRENEURS / MAKERS / INNOVATORS / DREAMERS Graduate Studies at Emily Carr University • • •

Master of Applied Arts Master of Applied Arts Low Residency Master of Design

Mira Blumenthal is an editor at Idea Couture.

Find out more!

Emily Empel is co-head of strategic foresight at Idea Couture.

ecuad.ca/admissions/graduate

Melissa Richer is a senior foresight strategist at Idea Couture. Valdis Silins is a foresight analyst at Idea Couture.

AARON OUSSOREN (MASTER OF DESIGN CANDIDATE)

experiments with innovative technologies in collaboration with a local glass blowing studio.

// Flight opened up our accessibility to the world, but despite all the advancements, an airline must still be prepared for a plane to go down. // Preparing for Problems People will continue to be surprised by what happens around them. Many companies will be blindsided by a crisis, and therefore will be less prepared than they could have been or should have been. The threats are numerous and growing. There is no way to predict with precision the next disruptive event or cover all of the possibilities. However, while it may be difficult to know exactly what to prepare for, organizations can be deliberate about investing in their own resilience. As a foundation of preparedness, companies should invest in a Vulnerability Assessment that analyzes the risks related to their operations. Some potential crises are obvious, and response plans must be prepared. Flight opened up our accessibility to the world, but despite all the advancements, an airline must still be prepared for a plane to go down. Mass production of food has made it easier to have access, but a food producer must be ready to deal with reports of a widely distributed contaminated product. And companies with integral operations in an earthquake zone – those based in Silicon Valley, for example – better have plans in place to deal with the massive fallout of a natural disaster that could impact digital services for millions. Then there are the gray area risks, which are far more difficult to plan for. How many resources should be dedicated to the threat of an epidemic? How much should be invested in preparing for a tornado in an area where they are infrequent? It is next to impossible to list all the things that might happen and then in turn prepare for each one. Nonetheless, there are ways to plan for this seemingly unlimited range of potential fallouts, starting with the basics:

Crisis Management in the Age of Disruptive Innovation Planning in the Rearview Mirror

Corporate crises of the future will come in a wide range of flavors. Certainly companies will continue to experience natural disasters, industrial mishaps, financial turmoil, political disruptions, and many other occurrences that have plagued them since the dawn of commerce, but now they must consider a churning base of new threats being added to the mix. For instance, today’s organizations are vulnerable to the unexpected side effects of recent and emerging technological innovations. Cyber attacks are a prime example. As more and more objects are connected with the developing Internet of Things, the risk of a cyber attack becomes even more treacherous. Cyber threats should be on every company’s radar, big and small. Connected things – from home appliances, driverless vehicles, and drones to “smart grid” power infrastructures – will no doubt present risks as well as benefits. All technologies do. A cyber attack could take down the electric grid of an area, and that loss of power in turn could disrupt the transactional systems of a business as well as its entire route to market – from raw material suppliers to customers.

/ Create a standing crisis team for the company / Staff the team with trusted people, especially those who do not wilt when the heat gets turned up / Assign alternates for all critical roles / Build a general plan that outlines how the company will operate in a crisis / Create one-page response guides for the most probable and significant crises / Assure the availability of essential resources for primary types of crises PHOTO: LABYRINTHX

By gil Meyer

Armies are often accused of fighting the last war. Companies do the same. They focus unduly on the latest mega-problem, especially one that seemed to come out of nowhere. The shock of this unforeseen threat prompts them to keep their focus in hindsight, while putting little effort into anticipating what else is coming over the horizon. The most concerning thing is that, in many cases, the “surprise” events often prove to have been predictable. Morgan Stanley Security Director Rick Rescorla foresaw and planned for September 11. National Geographic predicted Hurricane Katrina in amazing detail almost a year before that storm hit. And laws had been in place for decades requiring organizations to prepare for the effects of a Sandy-like superstorm – but few complied.

/ Use a Vulnerability Assessment to prioritize efforts

/ Keep rosters and checklists up-to-date / Test teams and crisis management plans with regular drills and other types of exercises / Engage with key stakeholders – build relationships before they are needed

It’s All About Speed Social media has created a new dynamic for crisis management. With people everywhere carrying devices that can record events and transmit images instantaneously, virtually every crisis gets immediate coverage. Within minutes, a company can be behind the curve in what is being communicated about a specific problem affecting them or their industry. Rapid response is mandatory and any wasted motion or lost time can be very costly. Accordingly, companies must build in capabilities for speed and flexibility: / Design or buy a notification system that can mobilize teams in minutes / Make sure team members know how to raise an alert if they suspect a problem is arising / Foster a culture that sets high standards of behavior. Cultivate strong core values as a foundation for response / Build positive relationships among the crisis team members in advance of a crisis; in-fighting wastes time and energy / Devise an efficient approval process for communications. If it takes three hours to develop and gain approvals for the company’s first statement, other parties will have already filled the void with their perspectives and speculations

Plan for a Successful Future Without doubt, the future will unveil new types of crises. As we accept game-changing innovations into our daily lives, we welcome their benefits as well as their risks. A company that plans to be around must plan for these demands. Effective crisis management will determine survival in the uncertain times. //// Gil Meyer is the director of global issues & crisis management at DuPont.

How did the idea of vertical farming come into being? How was it inspired? It began in 1999, in a class called Medical Ecology. About halfway through the course, I had seven graduate students who had heard enough. Even in 1999, people were obviously aware of the fact that if you take the ozone layer from the stratosphere you increase the amount of skin cancer, and if you put too much ozone at the surface you exaggerate things like asthma and bronchitis. You can only stand to hear so much of that before you start to react negatively. They wanted to work on something more positive, so I said: “You have one week to tell me what you want to do.” They said, “We think that if we grow food on the rooftops of Manhattan, we might be able to feed a lot of people.” In order to do that, they had to go to the map room in the New York Public Library and find out how much space there is on the rooftops of non-commerical buildings in Manhattan. I don’t recall the exact number, but it was about 20 acres, which isn’t very much. Even if growing rice, you could only feed about 2% of Manhattan. That’s a really discouraging result. In a moment of desperation as a professor who didn’t know where else to go, I said, “What if we took your good idea and moved it into the building itself?” Let’s say it was a six storey building. If the people weren’t living there, we could grow six times as much food. Those were the last words they heard before they graduated.

Going Up How Vertical Farming is Revolutionizing Agriculture

PHOTO: DICKSON DESPOMMIER

The game changers of today are usually viewed as single companies disrupting entire industries. Uber has caused so much upheaval in the transportation industry that taxi drivers are rioting in the streets, while Airbnb has been banned or heavily regulated in cities such as New York. But you don’t have to enter an industry with the sole purpose of disrupting it in order to transform it. Sometimes, it’s the more subtle build-up of seemingly inconsequential events that leads to an upheaval. Dickson Despommier, author of The Vertical Farm: Feeding the World in the 21st Century, proves that you can revolutionize an entire industry – in this case agriculture – by shifting the traditionally accepted mindset.

PHOTO: GREEN SENSE FARMS

By stephanie kaptein

Why did you publish the idea of vertical farms online? What was the response? We worked on different aspects of what is now called vertical farming for 10 years in that same class. We started to post our results as a website dedicated to this project and the responses were incredible. We got some wonderful, fanciful, fantastical, futuristic generated images of what people thought vertical farms should look like. At the same time, there were other people out there who said, “Let’s make it better by simply making it more practical.” First of all, I wanted to involve more people than I could accommodate in the class. I was hoping that other people would pitch in and give us ideas of what a vertical farm might do and where it might be located and how it might look. But I was also looking for criticism, because it was a crazy idea when we first conceived it. What’s wrong with outdoor farming? Why not just stick with that and improve it? Why don’t you just go along with business as usual? That’s the other alternative, of course. But the more we looked at the alternative, the more we accumulated statistics on the damaging effects of farming.

How do you deal with the naysayers? I’m not worried about that stuff. One of my heros is Elon Musk [co-founder of Tesla Motors], who has done an amazing job of selling the idea of electric cars. People were so negative about these cars and that concept, you have no idea. It’s much worse than vertical farming. So he said, “I don’t care what you think. I know I am right so I am just going to go ahead and do it.” He did and look where it’s got him. He’s an amazing individual. Why do we need vertical farms? The first issue is: What if you can’t slow down climate change? We can certainly still provide food for people by moving farming indoors. That’s number one. That really doesn’t address a larger issue: How can we possibly repair damaged ecosystems that were damaged by making room for farms by chopping down forests? We have chopped down enough forests that if you add it all together, it comes to be the size of South America. The reason we have so much carbon dioxide in the air is because there is nothing on the ground to suck it out. Those things are called trees. We can eliminate the use of farmland by going indoors. During outdoor lettuce production under the best of conditions, you can get four crops per year. Indoors, you can get thirty crops per year. That means for every indoor acre, you can give back ten outdoor acres. So just keep doing that. I bet that if I added up all the indoor acreage that’s

now in use for vertical farming, we would be up to something like ten thousand outdoor acres of hardwood forest. Now that’s a lot of carbon. I estimated that if every large city in the world grew just 10% of what they now consume from outdoor farming, it would add up to about 340,000 square miles of land. You know how much carbon that is? It’s 3 times 10 to the 10th tonnes of carbon. If you sucked out that equivalent of carbon, and you subtracted that from the atmosphere today, you could go back to 1987. I call that “back to the future.” What are the advantages of vertical farms? I’m going to give you two choices: you can control everything in your life, or you can control nothing in your life. Now, you know which one you’ll pick, of course. If you talk to all the people who are involved in indoor farming, that’s all they want to do: they just want to control everything because they can. And as a result, the crops that you grow indoors are 95% successful. That is to say, for every seed you plant, regardless of the methodology you use, you get a 95% survival rate, because you take care of their ideal conditions. If you look at the same crop outdoors, the best you could ever do is about 70%, and that’s because there are lots of things out there that affect the growth of the plant itself or that eat it before you get to it. You’ve got herbicides to keep out the weeds and you’ve got pesticides to keep out the insects. You don’t have those worries indoors.

How involved are you in making this idea a reality? I can actually take credit for the vertical farm that I visited in Korea. I gave a talk in 2009 at the Seoul Digital Forum on vertical farming, followed by a talk on the need for establishing a seed bank. The WHO [World Health Organization] has a seed bank up in Norway established by Cary Fowler, who was at the same meeting. In two years, they did exactly what Cary Fowler and I had said. It was a huge investment. They collected virtually every seed type from every plant that grows in South Korea. Every single one of them has to be stored differently. Some have to be stored in a humid condition, others have to be dried out, others have to be frozen, others have to be kept warm. This building takes care of all of that. But how do you know if the seeds are still alive? Very easy. Take them next door to the vertical farm and try to grow them. Every country should have at least one each. Why do you think vertical farms are finally progressing? The reason that you hadn’t heard about it before is because it wasn’t necessary. As we saw at the United Nations conference on climate change in Paris, everybody’s on board now. It’s a matter of seeing; seeing is believing. It’s an old phrase, but it’s really true. If you can actually see it for yourself, then there’s no doubt. That’s why today, it’s such an easy sell. Here’s what we are going to do. Farming is failing. It’s failing because of climate change. There’s no doubt about that now, everyone agrees. Everyone is expecting an apocalyptic ending to the human condition. But other people are looking for solutions that don’t mitigate climate change. Building vertical farms will not stop climate change. I can’t solve that problem, but I can solve the problem of being able to grow food in a rapidly changing climate. I don’t know any vertical farm in the United

States right now that isn’t in expansion mode. There’s a guy by the name of Robert Colangelo, he runs a farm called the Green Sense Farms. He just got back from China, who ordered 20 of them. I interviewed the owner of Urban Agriculture and their plan is to make 100 of them by next year. The mayor of Seoul has started a program to put a three or four storey vertical farm addition on top of every building that can possiblly be retrofitted. That’s 30 million people’s worth of vertical farming. What is your hope for the future of vertical farming? In my future ideal world, we would be recycling, not wasting, all fresh water. We would be retaining anywhere from 60-80% from passive energy sources, so we would stop using fossil fuels basically. Everything would be

designed for reuse. Food would mainly come from within the city itself. Energy would come mainly from the sun or some product like wind or tides. We would be zero pollution and zero landfill. When are we going to wake up to the fact that we’re just a single species trying to survive on a planet that really doesn’t want us to survive? The nature of life on earth is extinction and new species taking the place of old species. That’s how this world has worked ever since it’s been a world, and we want to be the exception. So, to be the exception means you have to make peace with the rest of the world. You can’t fight it, you have to become part of it. //// Stephanie Kaptein is a design strategist at Idea Couture.

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// Building vertical farms will not stop climate change. I can’t solve that problem, but I can solve the problem of being able to grow food in a rapidly changing climate. //

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PHOTO: GREEN SENSE FARMS

What was your reaction when you heard about the first vertical farm in Japan after working on this concept in your class for so long? I was absolutely blown away. I was pleased, because they acknowledged the fact that they had heard about it through the internet. They don’t deny the fact that if I hadn’t been willing to talk about this in public then they would still be struggling a bit with PR. They had to convince the Japanese government that what they were doing was the right thing. They used a lot of information in order to get that point across and some of it was from the papers I had written and my book, The Vertical Farm.

economies of scale

+ By laura DeMpsey

Rethinking the Garment Industry

PHOTO: OLYA OLEINIC FOR THE POST-COUTURE COLLECTIVE

Fashion for a Finite Planet

The fashion industry’s reputation for exploitation – of people, the planet’s finite resources, and even ideas – is not new. Garment workers have faced unsafe working conditions and a lack of agency within the system since the dawn of the industrial age, and despite the fashion industry’s professed penchant for transformation, much of its cut-and-sew production techniques have remained remarkably unaltered over the past century. What has changed is where it’s made and how much is produced, fuelled by the frenetic pace at which the system now operates. By 2018, the global apparel and footwear industry is estimated to be worth US$3 trillion; much of its growth can be attributed to the fast fashion phenomenon that has emerged over the past two decades. According to a report by the Danish Fashion Institute, it is also considered one of the world’s most polluting industries, second only to oil. The speed at which clothing is consumed (and disposed of) in the West has dramatically increased over this time period, fuelled by business models that rely on low prices and continuously changing styles to spur ever-quickening cycles of demand and sales. The “race to the bottom” pricing structure currently dominating the garment industry has produced considerable profits for major fast fashion brands, but its reliance on low prices and subsequent low production costs reduces both the tangible and emotional value of clothing while simultaneously increasing the desire for more. How can this be so? Sociologist Juliet Schor’s theory of the “materiality paradox” may shed some light. She hypothesizes that as we accumulate more and more goods, the symbolic and social value attached to a product becomes far more significant than its material worth, but also far easier to manipulate and render obsolete. As Schor writes in Plenitude: The New Economics of True Wealth, “...in opposition to theorists of dematerialization, the materiality paradox suggests the rising importance of the symbolic increases, rather than reduces, pressure on the planet. That’s because sign economies are vulnerable to the dynamics of rapidly changing symbolic value, through the fashion cycle.”

price reductions

cuts to production costs

profit/capital to expand operations

+ +

customer expectation of low prices

clothing sales

quality of material finishes

human desire for novelty perception of clothing value

+ +

need/desire for new clothing

clothing longevity

clothing disposal rate +

social pressure to be “on trend”

speed of changing trends

Escalation Archetype Diagram based on William Braun’s paper, “The System Archetypes”.

government support of consumerism

exposure to/ accessibility of clothing for sale perceived obsolescence of trends

Note: “+” signs denote a parallel relationship between two elements, while “-” signs indicate an inverse one (as one element increases, the other decreases, and vice versa).

Distancing and Cost Externalizations The fashion industry has also become one of the most globalized on earth, with supply chains for individual products often spanning dozens of stakeholders and countries. This has been facilitated by the divestment of manufacturing to overseas contractors, where brands benefit from lower costs but also limited liability for safety and environmental infractions – effectively pushing both responsibility and risk further down the supply chain. By tightly developing and controlling the means of consumption, companies have also garnered significant power in their relationships with supply chain contractors. This has allowed them to exert strong downward pressure on prices and easily substitute alternative suppliers at short notice. The ease at which brands can relocate from country to country in search of low production costs inevitably impedes any effort to rebalance power dynamics within the supply chain and reduce cost externalizations in developing nations. Be it across oceans, cultures, or psychological boundaries, the fashion industry’s current incarnation separates us from both the means of production and the impacts of consumption, and severs our links to the visceral feedback needed to make informed decisions. Without these feedback loops, we can only abstractly comprehend the consequences of our decisions on both people and the planet. The same could be said for those operating within the middlemen-laden fashion supply chains where accountability becomes nearly impossible to achieve or enforce.

Bridging Between Paradigms How might we move from our current reality to a more preferable future? One potential pathway might involve reimagining the industry as a collection of fast, medium, and slow speed systems that work symbiotically in support of a greater sustainable whole. It could look to what companies, designers, and individuals do best and channel them in different directions, with each “level” of speed supporting the activities of another. In this way, highly efficient systems begin to support the inefficient ones – the slow, painstaking labors of love that express our humanity and transform dress and adornment into important cultural artifacts. Fast fashion leaders, for example, might reimagine themselves as experts in creating value loops – finding ways to ensure the system is as efficient and wasteless as possible. In doing so, these leaders could support smaller players to use their flexibility and social consciousness to foster authentic expressions of creativity and experimentation in fashion. These medium speed systems might work to facilitate more authentic relationships between the creators, producers, and wearers of fashion. This could result in more bespoke and participatory design practices that reflect the unique desires of both designers and individuals. In doing so, individuals could be given vital roles in the process of fashion creation, giving them agency to create meaningful reflections of themselves and the world. Meanwhile, slow systems could focus on the truly human elements of fashion – the labors of love that take time to develop and are impossible to replicate at mass scales. That is, activities that embrace the messy, the irrational and the eccentric, the exquisite inefficiency of the creative process.

Resistance to Change Within the System

Euromonitor International has predicted that one of the main challenges facing clothing companies in the future will be breaking the cycle of discounting and the resultant falling perception of value by customers, who have been trained to expect sales. Once a point of competitive advantage, they believe the decreasing cost of clothing, along with “fast fashion fatigue,” is now negatively impacting the profitability of some companies. At a deeper level, Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman has also found evidence that western societies have begun to shift their aspirations from the pursuit of material wealth to an economy that strives to cultivate wellbeing and happiness. If the pursuit of low prices and unfettered consumption are losing their effectiveness, perhaps it is time to re-evaluate and begin shifting focus toward maximizing the qualitative values of both companies and customers instead of continuing to pursue monetary value alone.

PHOTOS: KAREN BARBÉ, LAURENCE MARTIN

The Future in the Now

PHOTO: ADIDAS

Criticism of the fast-fashion business model has begun to reach the mainstream by way of horrific tragedies like the 2013 Rana Plaza factory collapse in Bangladesh and documentaries such as Andrew Morgan’s The True Cost, but despite this outcry, the industry as a whole has been resistant to questioning the status quo. Where are the forces of dynamic conservatism at play within the system of fashion commerce? Resistance to change within this industry comes in many forms, with much of it driven by wider systems and drivers that pursue unmitigated economic growth: capitalism, globalization, and even the rapid rise of the internet. These forces can be difficult to oppose (or to harness), even for those most dedicated. By offering low clothing prices, for example, brands capitalize on what Schor has dubbed “the substitution effect” – that is, the tendency for people to buy more of something when its price is lower. If any one element of this model were significantly altered, its effectiveness as a whole would be impacted; low prices – facilitated by global supply chains and economies of scale – are essential to maintaining the levels of consumption fast fashion businesses rely upon for financial success. Alternatives that question this new status quo can thus seem difficult to justify, especially for industry leaders. Design’s deep entwinement with commerce and consumerism can also limit the scope of possibilities considered by designers and entrepreneurs, especially in a competitive environment where bonuses, promotions, and awards are often closely tied to consumption, and where some brands openly admit to designing clothing meant to be worn 10 times or less. Our inherent inclination for the new has proven a perfect complement to brands’ continual production of novelty for sale, allowing us to easily keep up with trends and reify our perceived social status through what we wear.

The mainstream system currently dominating mass-market fashion likely won’t be disrupted overnight. But, fuelled by the innovative resistance that has already begun to emerge, a more interdependent and symbiotic network could develop – one that embraces a diverse range of sustainable enterprises.

Flow >> Matte Nickel with Bamboo Blades

The New Normal There are already signals that change may be underway, ranging from ideas that improve the current system, to ones that exist entirely outside it. They also range in scalability. Some ideas have already been put into practice, while others are highly experimental. All hint at what the new “normal” could be.

Improving the System

Challenging the System

Transforming the System

Examples include supply chain transparency efforts undertaken by companies like Patagonia, Everlane, and Honest By, as well as material efficiency gains like the development of technological advancements in the use of recycled materials and textiles. Though these improvements are important starting points and help minimize some of the adverse symptoms within the system, they often fail to address the deeper causal issues of overconsumption, commoditization, and distancing.

Other concepts and models challenge the system by questioning its speed and disposability, as well as the need for the private ownership of clothing. These ideas span a broad range, from clothing libraries in places like Sweden and Australia, to the slow fashion movement, to zero-waste clothing production, to “hacking” boot camps that teach people how to deconstruct and re-imagine their existing wardrobes. Unlike initiatives concerned with improving the system, many of these ideas are far smaller in scale and are run by individuals or groups rather than corporate entities with large research budgets. Many of them appear to be driven by an ethos of activism and deep concern for the current system’s abuses.

Media theorist Douglas Rushkoff believes the internet has permanently transformed the way we experience the world by changing our feedback mechanisms and the role of narrative, shifting emphasis from product to process, and blurring the boundaries between makers and users. Many are already finding ways to take advantage of their nimbleness as niche creators and suppliers of fashion (as well as expert exploiters of digital technologies and media) to push boundaries, reach their audiences, and break open new avenues for post-industrial, sustainable futures. These concepts are evident in various efforts to transform the garment industry. While some embrace technology to completely eliminate waste and create spaces for industry collaboration, others are attempting to open up the system and truly democratize it – allowing more people to be involved in the design process. Others focus on a return to more traditional techniques and the pure joy of creating, as well as the community that can form around those common interests. These ideas tend to embrace eccentricity and imperfection as a mark of our humanity rather than as something to be corrected.

Innovators Worn Again Textile to Textile Recycling Technology Unlike traditional textile recycling companies that generally downcycle fabrics into industrial resources like insulation, Worn Again is developing a chemical textile to textile recycling technology that will enable the closed-loop processing of discarded clothing into new yarn and textiles for further garment production. wornagain.info

Innovators Adidas Ocean Plastic-Based 3D-Printed Shoes In collaboration with ocean conservation group Parley, Adidas recently unveiled a sneaker fabricated completely from plastics removed from the ocean. It includes a midsole 3D-printed using recycled polyester and gillnets – a form of wall-like netting used by fisherman. The shoe effectively combines additive manufacturing with negative-waste (as opposed to zero-waste) manufacturing processes to consume waste in its production.

Cool by Design

Innovators Post-Couture Collective DIY Garments The Post-Couture Collective designs garments that can be customized to an individual’s personal measurements and downloaded as an open-source pattern file, allowing for further modification. The pattern can then be taken to a local Makerspace to be cut out via a laser-cutter, and self-assembled without a sewing machine. In doing so, the Collective eliminates the need for over-production and empowers customers to play an integral role in the design process. postcouture.cc //// Laura Dempsey is a designer, strategist and recent graduate of OCAD University’s Master of Design program in Strategic Foresight and Innovation.

Celebrating the modern idiom modernfan.com

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Be Kind. REWIND.

B y n at h a l i e e s k e n a z i, fr a n ç ois e h er n a e z fo u r r ier, anD Jan lisk a

Structuring our lives between periods of “anticipation” and periods of “action” has become a thing of the past. Timing for appropriate and specific engagement with brands and services has shifted from brands deciding the “when” and the “what” to consumers choosing and deciding how they want to interact. Nowadays, brands must integrate themselves into individuals’ patterns – rather than creating these patterns themselves. So how does one succeed in playing a part in the end consumer’s new, customized life tempo, keeping pace with their needs and desires? Brands need to rethink the entire “communication contract” and find more relevance, coherence, and differentiation. It’s time to rewind, push the delete button, and wipe out existing engagement slates, drawing forth a new vision based on the individual and how they prefer to manage their time. The prospect of game changing is always a strange and daunting exercise. Consider this article an attempt to uncover new holistic approaches to time perception and how it relates to engaging people through marketing and brand strategy. This insight aims to shed light on a range of industries, be it beauty, wellbeing, or healthcare.

Enjoyment now versus benefit later: an increasing tension is shaping how we master time.

Brands need to be easily accessible to the end consumer.

As the digitized pace of our world accelerates day after day, the rhythm of our lives keeps getting more personal, punctuated by new moments, new gestures, new signs. Consumption habits are evolving, and so are the means to define them. Beyond the classic socio-demographic criteria, brands need to listen more (and more carefully) in order to comply with the increasingly paradoxical expectations of end consumers – who are no longer behaving in expected and usual ways. This paradoxical behavior is most commonly illustrated in the healthcare and wellbeing sectors. Everyone’s aspiration is to remain in good health for as long as possible. Yet this aspiration also implies the need to take control, take time for one’s own health and wellbeing, and invest in new habits that drive long-term results, most of which are not necessarily visible and tangible immediately. Paradoxically, we see the simultaneous emergence of the wish for everyday enjoyment, with people taking pleasure in the present moment, existing in a truly hedonistic and almost fatalist tension alongside long-term choices where pleasure is not immediate, and only hoped for. This begs the question: Is the future about radical game changing or progressive game shaping? There is certainly a shift towards the post-demographic marketing era. In this novel, individually shaped time/value context, brands have a duty to stay on track with new flows and trends via customized listening and communication channels, to be in the right place in the right moment, and to do so without becoming disconnected from people’s lives. From the customer’s point of view, brands need to stay interested in who their consumers are in order to maintain brand loyalty; this is the new manifesto of post-demographic marketing. But today, there is also a trend toward a much more radical evolution: a much-needed paradigm change and complete redefinition of the role of a brand. Instead of a punctual expression and presence of a brand in a specific moment of one’s life, brands need to continuously appear throughout consumers’ everyday lives, adapting to specific attention spans. It is now the duty of the brand to find the right tempo. This is especially true in the healthcare space, since fundamental health and life outcomes are at stake – all the while, individuals are increasingly taking control of their own health decisions via information and interaction channels, facilitated by a digitized pace.

PLAY, PAUSE, EJECT, RECORD: These four main relationship modes have been identified as the drivers of understanding and analyzing new brand engagement and durable connection opportunities with end consumers.

// Brands must integrate themselves into individuals’ patterns – rather than creating these patterns themselves. //

The PLAY Mode

The PAUSE Mode

The PLAY mode reveals the “Tinderization” of our societies. Driven by more playful, experiential, immediate consumption modes associated with mobile communication, brands are able to instantly execute and become increasingly emotional via pictures, pictograms, and emoticons. We live in a “swiping” culture that offers everyone instant power and a new intensity of action, often with an increased risk of superficiality and boredom. It is becoming a major challenge, especially in healthcare, as it creates a crucial need to competitively offer immediate enjoyment and wellbeing through services. In the 24 hours allotted to us each day, what is the most likely way we want to spend our time: enjoying the moment immediately, or opting for an alternative action that will bring better life quality and wellbeing 10 or 15 years from now? For an increasingly digital-savvy population, eHealth solutions could offer the right tools for healthcare brands willing to bring some “play” to their interactions with end consumers and patients. For the moment, the broadest impact is driven by lifestyle smartphone apps, such as sleep management, fitness, and calorie trackers, allowing brands like Nike or a startup to embody the role of a privileged life guide for the end consumer.

The PAUSE mode, on the contrary, allows for orchestrating moments of resourcing and relaxation to allow time for mastering our lives again. This is illustrated in our need to discover a sense of purpose, and our desire to rediscover life by escaping big cities in favor of the countryside, practicing slow consumption, being more thoughtful and selective, and developing new expectations for more genuine, transparent communication. The titles of the most recently launched print magazines, such as Real Simple, Flow, or Simple Things, perfectly illustrate this trend. A recent study in France shows that 16% of the population is regularly practicing yoga or relaxation. Simultaneously, the rediscovery of printed books activates different areas of our brain and allows us to momentarily go into “pause mode.” In healthcare, this would mean adopting more holistic approaches, anchored in a caring zone of wellbeing, to offer a comprehensive mastery of personal time and incorporate a mindful and seamless service pathway, going far beyond a simple product and service addition. Patients have expressed a desire to receive more holistic healthcare services in order to solve this time tension. The fundamental shift from problem-solution marketing to consumer/ patient centricity is what is at stake. When Sanofi proposes to its diabetic patient a leaflet explaining how to manage daily dieting with a specific recipe book, it marks a moment that goes far beyond a pill or an injection. Some hospitals have even started to use aromatherapy in their oncology departments, not for the sake of treatment, but to help patients feel more relaxed and calm while in a stressful environment. Further, GE Healthcare has brought mammography to a whole new level by designing SensorySuite: an interactive, multisensorial patient experience.

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DIGITAL PUBLISHING INNOVATION SUMMIT

The EJECT Mode

The RECORD Mode

REWIND

The EJECT mode represents the very core expression of this new mastery of personalized time in the era of post-demographic marketing. Different from slowing down or pausing (which changes the tempo and not the rules), the EJECT mode requires entering into people’s behaviors – much like a hacker – to reinvent the rules of relationship building as a whole. In healthcare, this mode is expressed via the rise of natural and alternative therapies. In France, 41% of people have reported a preference for alternative medicines. Yet in the complex and highly regulated world of healthcare, it may not be feasible to immediately find a suitable alternative. Should it then be a question of reframing the dialogue between patients and healthcare professionals? The case of Salvatore Iaconesi, a patient who was diagnosed with cancer in 2012, is an interesting example. His medical data was not accessible, but he refused to let that stop him from finding answers. He hacked into the medical system and managed to “download” his medical file, and proceeded to invite influencers on the web to have a look at his case. Iaconesi essentially built his own therapeutic strategy via his own team. Although this is an extreme case, it exemplifies how even trust in healthcare can be ejected. Another example of the EJECT mode is the website and app, Ginger.io. Big data allowed this company to start paving the way to better healthcare via smartphones. This mobile app meets patients wherever they are, and allows them to manage chronic conditions by talking to healthcare professionals directly via the app, building a more seamless link to their physicians.

The RECORD mode, which paradoxically emerges in tandem with the EJECT mode, is driven by the willingness to get back to basics, back to the origins and fundamentals that have been building the link between brands and their end customers. Relationship management, respect, and a considerate and polite attitude with apt listening skills are back at the forefront of engagement capabilities that every brand should master. Whether it’s beauty, wellbeing, CPG, or healthcare, the RECORD mode aspiration seems common to all: it’s a desire for re-alliance and humanization, whether serving individual, real-time management or helping empower longer-term investments and benefits. For example, the Eye Mitra program put in place by Essilor aims to train young Indians to become optometrists and help bring eye correction procedures to patients. Up to 2.5 million people could be treated by the end of 2016. And e-NABLE, now with over 5,200 members worldwide, focuses on the design and fabrication of 3D printed prosthetic arms and legs. Members work strictly on a volunteer basis, sharing their design files, ideas, and assembly instructions with each other, leading to the 3D printing of what has become thousands of very affordable prosthetic devices in just a few years.

Let’s take a step back and REWIND. Time has forced us to reconsider both the old and new rules of engagement, and to start addressing the individual’s unique consumer needs and respecting the operating modes of the end consumers’ time management matrix. Let’s accompany the flow of their tempo, be there when they skip from one mode to another, and stay in the soundtrack of their lives. ////

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Nathalie Eskenazi is department director at Ipsos. Françoise Hernaez Fourrier is director of strategic planning at Ipsos. Jan Liska is global head of patient business strategy at Sanofi.

// Beyond the classical sociodemographic criteria, brands need to listen more (and more carefully). //

The Modernization of Media #DigiPub

13 & 14 JULY 2016 | NEW YORK ie.

Speakers Include

+ 1 415 830 3712

sfound@theiegroup.com

www.theinnovationenterprise.com

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Finding meaningful innovation in a single idea.

By charles anDrew

The process of changing the game can often involve contradictions. For big change, for example, it pays to think small – the smaller and more concise, the better. If you can reduce your inspiration for change down to one single insight, idea, or question, you may be onto something. Meaningful change is unlikely to come from tinkering with the status quo. When working off of an existing system, there is the danger that the impetus for change will get bogged down in the complexity and interconnected-

ness of current circumstances. By contrast, when we think of real game changers, it is evident that they didn't start by thinking “how can we improve what we’ve got?” but rather, with a single core flash of inspiration or a revelation that drove the construction of an entirely new paradigm. Airbnb, for example, wasn’t based on optimizing an existing hotel business model or customer experience, but rather on the simple insight that there are lots of spare rooms in private houses and homeowners just need a way to connect (conveniently) to people who need a place to stay. Once a driving inspiration like that is discovered, the innovation tasks begin to rapidly fall into place in a coherent way: setting up the booking system, allowing for reviews to build trust, incorporating a guarantee to provide reassurance, and providing the infrastructure to transact payments. In reality,

Airbnb wasn’t an instant success, although it clearly showed a lot of early promise. It took a second simple idea to cut through and become a game changer in practice rather than theory: the use of professional photography to advertise the listings. The rest is not yet history, but it is making history. There are multiple methods to arriving at an innovative idea. One classic approach is the SWOT grid, evolved from the everyday need to improve-to-survive. It starts by looking within; right from the get go, the focus is on “what we have now,” with all its Strengths and Weaknesses. This inward-focused approach has some merit as a day-to-day discipline, but for disruption and game changing, it starts in the wrong place entirely. The very first step in the innovation process is the most dangerous one; it can surreptitiously influence everything that comes after it, tinting the lens through

PHOTO: OPEN GRID SCHEDULER

A Simpler Game

which other perspectives are seen. This effect is often demonstrated in the way consumer research is carried out. Indeed, it is even present in the way that consumer research is named – by predefining our interest in our human subject as a user of the product or service in question, which is only a tiny part of their experience and behavior. Such research has already become trapped within the existing assumptions and ways of doing things. To follow through with the Airbnb example, we can imagine how market research carried out by hotels would diligently inquire about such things as check-in procedures, pillow comfort, or availability of room service; all very useful in the competitive struggle within an existing market, but entirely useless (and self defeating) in any attempt to be a game changer. Consumer research tends to reinforce competition along existing dimensions of value within the category. It helps companies play the game they’re in even more effectively, but it leaves them vulnerable to a game changing idea that simply sweeps away those old competitive features. By contrast, a different approach to research can provide exactly the inspiration needed to challenge existing category assumptions. A more ethnographic approach to research is one that starts with the person, not a category, and accepts that real needs and desires are often unarticulated. In a way, this perspective dates back to when Harvard marketing professor Theodore Levitt observed that “people don’t want a quarter-inch drill, they want a quarter-inch hole.” Of course, this insight extends further, because people don’t want a quarter-inch hole either; they want to spend more quality family time on a new deck, or they want to bring order to domestic chaos by adding storage, or a million other desires. But the same critique rings true: only do research on what people want from a drill if you want to win the game of drill marketing (against other drill brands), not if you want to disrupt the category and change the game itself by developing self-assembly predrilled products like IKEA, another game changer. Game changing comes by inverting the traditional inside-out mindset that starts with how the current game works, and replaces it with outside-in thinking. This kind of framework starts with anyone who might be interested in improving their lives somehow – that gives us a market size of at least 7 billion people to start with. It takes the focus away from product improvement innovation, and increases the focus on more systemic innovation, such as business model innovation and disruptive innovation. This is our second apparent contradiction: changing the game doesn’t come from focusing on the game itself.

While this can sound like a daunting step, there are powerful examples of big businesses that have used this type of thinking. For example, Procter & Gamble, under A.G. Lafley, reversed the “we know best” mindset to proclaim that consumers were the bosses, not the CEO or management team. Lafley reorganized the company around customercentric innovation, expanded vision by encouraging multi-disciplinary teams (always beneficial for avoiding commercial myopia), and made innovation more than just a stand-alone activity and into one that could impact all aspects of the business model. In other words, he changed the focus away from being internally driven and incremental, and encouraged more fundamental and far-reaching innovation inspired by the question of how to deliver value (not just more product) to people outside the organization. Sometimes, this idea of being a game changer and turning a market on its head feels like a feat reserved for the world of startups. Working from within a large company means dealing with the supertanker of an existing and established business model. Isn’t it so much easier to change the game when you start with a blank slate? Sidestepping the reality that being a startup comes with a thousand other challenges, innovative changes don’t have to involve the intent of destroying an existing business; it is more about freeing oneself from looking at everything through the perspective of how the existing market operates.

DriveNow is a joint venture between BMW and Sixt. BMW has, of course, spent its history promoting the joy of owning “the ultimate driving machine.” But, while there is pleasure in ownership, there is pleasure in usership too, and there is also the practical benefit of getting from one place to another. In the traditional model, you have to own a car in order use it, but there is no fundamental reason why this should be the case. DriveNow’s carsharing gives people the benefits of car usership under a different model, where ownership is unnecessary. This car sharing system still needs BMWs to roll off the production line, so the underlying strengths of the business are still essential; however, people’s needs are being met in a different way. These are two fundamentals in the conception of game changing innovation: having a simple idea or insight at the core, and taking the outside-in perspective. There is an argument that these are mutually contradictory: looking outside-in involves taking in a far broader range of information, handling greater complexity, and being comfortable with a degree of haziness – all of which seem far removed from simplicity or conciseness. There is indeed a tension here; one does not automatically flow from the other – it’s lot of work to arrive at a simple insight that drives the creation of a whole new model – but who said innovation was easy? //// Charles Andrew is executive director at Idea Couture London.

// For big change, it pays to think small. //

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The Things of Past, Present, and Future

B y D r. r ya n B r o t M a n

Things are changing. Constant connectivity, nanosensors, brain-to-brain communication – these are just some of the rapidly evolving innovations at the center of the Internet of Things (IoT). In this feature, we gathered anthropologists, user experience designers, innovation strategists, nanotechnology researchers, and engineers to cover a variety of industries, providing insight and foresight on IoT throughout six articles. First, we look at the broader human context of IoT, making its strangeness feel more familiar through historical comparisons. Next, we consider the current landscape of IoT devices within the rich metaphor of Darwin’s On the Origin of Species, articulating an IoT Tree of Life to better understand the current functions that various devices play in sociotechnical systems and identifying white space opportunities to inspire IoT innovation. Finally, we deconstruct the dynamics of human needs, proposing a requisite of situational contexts to create IoT

products and services that transcend function to become objects of desire. Together, these three articles serve as a structuring framework, tackling issues of humanity, technology, and design. Additionally, we look at how IoT could inspire new futures for health, communication, and agriculture. One article discusses the role of nanosensors for holistic sensing of human health; another explores the future of affective computing by proposing direct brain-to-brain communication; a third puts forward a discussion of IoT as a change agent in farming to meet the grand challenge of feeding a population in an unprecedented stage of growth. Much like the internet impacted the globe, IoT – as a new paradigm for architecture, human-computer interaction, and big data – has the potential to impact markets across the world. We hope this series will incite considerations about the present and inspirations about the future, and initiate discourse on what the IoT means to you, professionally and personally. //// Dr. Ryan Brotman is co-head of IC/things at Idea Couture.

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By paul h artle y

A basic procedure in thinking about the future is to look back into our shared history and understand how people did something in the past. This hindsight allows us to learn from the way humans have approached change and apply this knowledge to future situations. Not only does it allow us to avoid the problem highlighted in the age-old adage, “Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it,” but it also allows us to remember the first principle of the future: the future will be populated by human beings who do not change as quickly as our technology does. Seen through a historical view of human change, technology has not made as much of an impact as we want to claim. We continually make massive changes in our society and culture – and this includes technology – but true human needs have not changed appreciably throughout our collective history. To gain clarity about the future of IoT, we have to look back to how we connected ourselves to our technology in the past. Because IoT promises revolutions in control, synchronization, and technological extensions of human agency, lessons from the past will demonstrate how best to build our connected future.

The roots of IoT lie in two fundamental human qualities: first, we are social beings, and second, we tend to anthropomorphize the objects in our environment to help us make sense of them and bring them into our social world. While these are self-evident, taken together they suggest why human beings are so quick to try to organize everything in our lives along the framework provided by social structure. We use almost everything in our world to further individuality and social expression and to communicate with others. In fact, we are so social that we even try to turn inanimate objects into social beings. We

imbue everything with social meaning. We encode our laws into things like speed bumps and police uniforms. We talk about objects like computers, cars, and teddy bears as if they have intention and agency of their own. We associate them with emotions and memories. Even in the adult world, a teddy bear or a house has a life of its own. With this in mind, it is not difficult to see that what IoT offers is a fuller expression of this anthropomorphization. IoT allows us to push our desire to include objects in our social world as human analogs and make them into true, independent social actors. The basis for the development of IoT is really nothing more than a technologization of what we’ve been doing for millennia. This leads us to our next point: the future development of IoT will have to be grounded in an extension of what humans already do. In the distant past, it was very difficult to organize human action beyond a small number of people – anything more than a village. Even though skills like making stone tools or metal smelting could be transmitted between individuals and groups fairly quickly, it still took many hundreds of years to be transmitted across the globe. For instance, the people living in what is now the United Kingdom were technologically hundreds of years behind their counterparts on the continent well into the Bronze and Iron Ages. Later, after travel technologies closed the distances between populations, the pace of technology sharing increased.

PHOTO: MARCO ANNUNZIATA

A Human History of IoT

// To gain clarity about the future of IoT, we have to look back to how we connected ourselves to our technology in the past. //

However, synchronizing even daily efforts beyond a household was still difficult. Until the 12th century development of early mechanical clocks based on monastic time, few people used the notion of time to synchronize their lives. These clocks were first used to coordinate the “hours” of the day that regulated the prayer times of monastic communities; the clock would signal when it was time to go to chapel to worship. With the addition of the bell tower, everyone in earshot could also coordinate themselves. Even though farmers and townspeople did not need to pray, they used this resource to organize the day and synchronize their schedules. The information from a simple bell tower and mechanical clock provided a new way to coordinate action and understand time. While the technology was mechanical, the impact was social and conceptual. The introduction of time into daily life began a larger revolution where more people wanted clocks to better coordinate with those who had them. This desire was not to own the latest “must have” commodity, but to be able to coordinate trade, farming chores, and to meet up and chat. Even though all of these new clocks were unconnected, people were connected through their use. Time was the information that connected them all. Now everything even mildly computerized has a clock, and these clocks connect us to everything else that has a clock. Moreover, clocks provide the basis for features. Devices can turn on and off using timers. They can

perform scheduled actions. They can even coordinate with each other, just because they share the information provided by time. By being synchronized through the medium of time, humans and devices are connected practically and socially. Importantly, this connection allows these devices to act with some autonomy. IoT provides a number of new possibilities for synchronization and social collaboration based on different means of connection. These connections are no longer conceptual, but are driven by a constant exchange of other kinds of information – mostly as data. Synchronization need no longer rely solely on time, but is achieved through machine-to-machine exchange. The content of this exchange is data. In a more direct sense, the history of IoT is also the history of the development of computing and the manipulation of the data that it both requires and produces. Major developments, like the PARC developments of networked computing, the improvement of addressing and routing protocols that began with the early TCP/IP developments in the mid-1970s, ARPANET, and the final development of the World Wide Web have certainly contributed a great deal. However, smaller developments have contributed as well, such as improvements in antenna technology and sensor technology, the conceptual developments provided by media theorists like Marshall McLuhan, and even Kevin Ashton’s coining of the term “the Internet of Things.”

Understood this way, the foundations for IoT began when independent scientists and inventors developed the various pieces used in telegraph communication in the 19th century. This technology proved that even global connectivity was possible. Following that were the advances in basic computing made by various visionaries: from Alan Turing’s developments in the 1930s, all the way to the innovations in the 1970s (Xerox’s PARC labs, the mouse, Ethernet, Interpress [a forerunner of PostScript], and early touch screens, among others), computing developments have been working for decades to provide users with a technological “brain.” Sensor technologies provided “eyes” and “ears.” Networking protocols and technologies provided a means for communication. Programming languages provided the language. But in the end, the human desire for objects that can be more like us have guided us to this point. Seen from this perspective, we should view the development of IoT as the joining of two important threads of history: a history of technological development throughout the 20th century, and also a history of the human desire to make the world more human. ////

Paul Hartley is head of human futures and technology and a senior resident anthropologist at Idea Couture.

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On the Origin of Things The IoT Tree of Life To create the IoT Tree of Life, 115 products – activity trackers, smart watches, smart appliances, home automation devices, remote control drones, and more – were reviewed and classified according to four criteria:

The Rise of the Smartphone as the Apex Device

B y n at h a n s a M s o n o f f a n D M i c h a e l ta M p i l i c

There is one species whose advancement and rise to prominence set the stage for the era of IoT. Much like biology describes apex predators who are at the peak of the food chain, we can identify the smartphone as a device that is at the apex of miniaturized technology, power-efficient processing, and mobile connectivity. It has domain over and acts as the main controller or access point to the growing number of other IoT species, which can be classified under an IoT Tree of Life. The conditions that contributed to its evolution have fostered an ecosystem for internet-enabled devices to exist and thrive in two ways:

PHOTO: KAREN ROE

In 1859, Charles Darwin published On the Origin of Species and described the means by which populations evolve – that environmental pressures naturally select the individuals best suited to their habitat to procreate. Culminating from this work was a phylogenetic tree of life, graphically illustrating and describing the relationships between the species of the world and how they have evolved through time. To better understand the IoT landscape, we have undertaken creating the IoT Tree of Life. However, rather than progressing through time as we move along the branches of the tree, we’ve opted to move through the various attributes each device possesses. These groupings result in each branch owning similar characteristics, much like the branches on a biological tree of life possessing similar genetic history. The various branches of the IoT Tree of Life can then be divided into species that play a specific role in the IoT ecosystem. To set the stage, let’s discuss the most accessible example: the smartphone.

The development and commoditization of its internal components have made it possible for new, affordable connected devices to be created.

The smartphone, being a computer in your pocket, can act as the pack leader for the numerous pack member connected devices, overseeing the processing and connection to the cloud.

Processing Level of intelligence. Does the species have internal computing capability? Communication Level of communication to other species. Does the species send or receive data transmissions, or both? Sensing Level of awareness of its surroundings. Does the species have internal sensing, connection to external sensing, or no sensing at all? Engagement Level of attention required for a person to use it. Does the species offer full visual interaction, partial attention (ability to multitask), or none (fully autonomous)?

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From this, we created the IoT Tree of Life:

Processing

Data In/out

Int

Data In

Ext

June Intelligent Oven Sony SmartWatch Smart ThinQ Fridge Moto 360 Recon Headset Tablets Laptops Nuzzle Whistle Point Nest Netatmo Nest Protect

Int

None

Sen.se Mother

These archetypal products were then mapped out on the IoT Tree of Life, and the groupings were critically analyzed. This analysis resulted in the identification of five main species:

Chromecast Apple TV Desktops

Data Out

Ext

Ninja Sphere Belkin WeMo Grid Connect Honeywell Thermostat Ivee Sleek

Biopod AllBe1 Spruce Cinder Angel Sensor

No Processing

Brio

SmartMat

None

MAID Smart TVs

Int

Ext

None

Int

Nima Breathometer Muse

Grove Ecosystem Click & Grow Spruce

Drop Chop-Syc

Data In/out

SpeedForce Brinc Glassy Zone iHealth Wireless Blood Pressure Fitbit Charge HR

Canon EOS 6D DSLR Myo Muse

Data In

Ext

None

Ext

Voyo iAquaLink

Tripper Roost

August Door Cam

Int

Logitech Harmony

Logitech Circle Nest Cam Parrot AR.Drone 2.0 Parrot Jumping Sumo

Data Out

Aspirus Ember BeON Tado

None

Keen Home

iKetttle

Sphero BB-8

Int

Ext

BitTag Aether Cone Bose SoundLink August Smart Lock

None

Range Dial

Amazon Dash

AirBolt Withings Wireless Blood Pressure Monitor AirDonkey Pressure Meter Keen Home Smart Vent Smart Lights OpenSprinkler Veta Mr. Coffee Condeco Sense Blossom Aterica Veta Bluesmart Netatmo Rain Gauge Tilt D-link Wifi Water Sensor Bitlock iSwimband Belkin WeMo

Achiever

Streamer

Gatherer

Coordinator

Enabler

A species that receives commands (from a user or Coordinator species) and performs a task. This species has existed long before IoT. They are familiar devices that were previously unconnected and received direct prompts from a user. Now, they receive prompts from a Coordinator IoT device. On the Tree of Life, these devices tend to cluster in a group that has no significant processing capabilities and only receives data streams, covering a broad range of sensing and engagement properties.

A species that primarily relays existing information streams. It does not perform any processing on this data. These devices can be identifiers, notifiers, view portals, or serve other roles depending on the receiver/ transmitter of the information. On the Tree of Life, they tend to cluster in two groupings: no significant processing capabilities, only outputting data streams with internal sensors, or significant processing and data in/out capabilities, having no sensors.

A species that is highly aware of its surroundings and collects information that is distributed to other species or displayed to a user. These are the quantifiers, analyzers, detectors, and sensors. They commonly perform some processing of the data. On the Tree of Life, Gatherers tend to be a broad grouping of devices that only need to output data and have internal or external sensors.

A hub for data and communication. On the Tree of Life, the majority of Coordinators take data inputs, perform processing, and provide outputs, and may or may not have internal/external sensors. They also relay and control streams of data, and give commands to other species. The paradigm of Coordinators is the smartphone.

Currently one of the fastest growing groups within the Tree of Life. It is a symbiotic species that alters an analog object to become digitally connected. They are commonly paired with non-connected Achievers, forming a new organism that can communicate with other species in the IoT ecosystem. On the Tree of Life, these are currently clustered together with no significant internal processing capabilities, however they do have data in/out capabilities and internal sensors, adding functionality like WiFi control of batteries to remotely receive notifications from a standard fire alarm and shut it off.

Example: Philips Hue

Example: Sonos Wireless Speaker, Nest Cam

Example: Fitbit Charge HR, Muse Headband

Example: Nest Thermostat, iPhone 6s

Example: Chromecast

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Data In

The White Spaces While the identification of these five species can help frame where new devices will fit into the greater IoT ecosystem, perhaps even more interesting is analyzing where there is a lack of products on the IoT Tree of Life – an unfilled niche. These missing branches can represent a species that doesn’t exist because it doesn’t make sense. For example, a species that has processing power; it sends data out but has no sensors. This species should not exist because there would be nothing to process, and thus no data to send out. The other reason for the existence of white spaces in the IoT product landscape is to allow for hypothesizing where future subspecies may reside and act as drivers for future product development. For example:

Much like how animal and plant species evolve to better suit their environment, IoT species will adapt to better meet the desired use cases of consumers and match their behavior over time. While we can’t predict the future, we can analyze current trends and make some educated hypotheses.

Int

Ext

None

Local Coordinators

City Automators

Dumb Automaters

Devices with internal processing, data input streams, and external sensors are currently a significant white space. These devices could act as Coordinators that directly take data from dumb sensors and process it for immediate use without transmitting it first to the internet. Examples are VR headsets that need low latency data transmission from environmental beacons to calculate positioning and content for the user, or a digital wallet that can make purchases without having to send credit information over insecure networks. This category will be driven by low power processing, security desires, and other special use cases.

A second white space of interest exists with devices that do no processing, only offer data output, and have no sensors. These are environmental enablers, or, more specifically, City Automation Enablers. These low power devices will be the beacons and sensors integrated into public objects, buildings, and spaces that can make environments react and interact with citizens. Examples may be devices that a user can press a simple button on, swipe a keycard, or come into proximity with, which would then upload data to cloud storage for later processing or completion of an action by another device. Imagine parking beacons that transmit details to the nearby environment, so that when your car parks on top of one, it can automatically identify where it is and what the parking rates are, then auto-bill your credit card.

A third white space consists of devices that have no significant internal processing capability, data input only, and external sensors. These are devices that monitor an external sensor and do a simple assigned task, depending on sensor values. Imagine a window that can automatically open based on the environment. The user tells the window to air out the house during the day, but the window then monitors incoming weather data and external rainfall sensors to determine the optimal time to accomplish this task.

Ext

The Evolution of Future Subspecies

None

Trend: Tracking and quantifying consumer goods with IoT As IoT continues to become more widely accepted, people will require more information about the production of the things they’re buying. Future devices will address consumers’ concerns about food safety, animal treatment, product recalls, and product end-of-life, opening channels for tracking consumer products all the way from farm/ factory to table/ house.

New Subspecies: Disposable Gatherers These specialized Gatherers will exist as enabled containers/ packaging, gathering information on their contents as well as the environments they travel through. They will then communicate this data to allow people to understand exactly what they are buying, and how the contents will affect them.

Trend: Measuring and improving mental health and wellbeing

New Subspecies: Emoters, Empathizers, and Health Vaults

Trend: Security and privacy in the Internet of Spaces

People want their devices to not only anticipate their schedule, but also their emotional state. Future devices will empower users to trigger events and improve their health, wellbeing, and performance. They will play new roles in changing health and wellness contexts. Their ability to sense, diagnose, guide, report, and coordinate care will impact both our personal and shared health and wellbeing.

These Gatherers and Coordinators will exist as wearables to collect and interpret biometric data, providing contextual cues for other connected devices within the house, as well as standalone data repositories that will store, maintain, and protect your personal health data.

As more and more objects collect an increasing amount of data about us, our online selves will be even more connected to our offline selves. People will want to be able to manage their digital identity and to control how their information is stored and what is communicated. Ultimately, new species will exist in order to help manage how the connected environment views and interacts with us.

Disruptions to the IoT Tree of Life Natural selection determines which species are better suited to their environment. Genetic drift is the process by which portions of the population are randomly selected, typically due to unforeseen environmental events. These two processes cannot operate unless there is variability in a population. Mutations, gene flow between populations, and recombination through sexual reproduction are processes that help create that variability. What are the equivalent forces driving variability and evolution in IoT devices? Changes in human behavior can be correlated to natural selection, as that will drive the adoption of new devices and change the distribution of species. Would

New Subspecies: Digital Diplomat The Digital Diplomat will act as the ambassador to the connected world, allowing people to negotiate their presence in a digital space, protect their anonymity, and decide what information is exchanged. They are the coordinators of your digital identity.

the development of a new core technology then be the equivalent of a genetic mutation? What would the equivalent of gene flow or recombination look like in an IoT device? An extreme environmental catastrophe can cause significant genetic drift in a population, such as the asteroid that killed off the dinosaurs and gave rise to the mammals on earth. What is the equivalent extinction event for IoT? Would it be singularity? Transhumanism? What devices will be the mammals of IoT? How will they evolve? Will they even be called IoT at that point? Only time will tell. //// Nathan Samsonoff is an electromechanical designer at Idea Couture. Michael Tampilic is an innovation strategist at Idea Couture.

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By BranDon sMith

Self-knowledge through numbers has long been the unspoken slogan of the Quantified Self Movement (QSM). Since its inception, the movement’s goal has been to enable a better understanding of ourselves and our actions and motivators through a quantified lens. However, as wearables give us access to personalized data, they also allow the sharing of this information in communities – enabling us to view our behavior patterns and trends on a more macro scale. As we become a more connected society through the evolution of the IoT with devices like Nest or the Apple Watch, sharing personal information has become a part of almost every online experience – and the quantified self likely won’t be much different. So how might this affect our day-to-day lives and social interactions with both each other and technology?

How Technology Affects Social Services

From Quantified Self to Internet of Self

What Does This Mean for Industry?

Imagine, instead of an all-in-one wearable sensor that tracks some of your external data, a network of thousands of nanosensors distributed throughout the body, each capable of detecting specific data points and relaying them back to a central hub that collects and interprets them into actionable conclusions. A nanosensor is defined as any biological, chemical, or surgical sensor that is capable of measuring properties of nanosized particles. Because they can be as small as a human cell, nanosensors are ideal as embeddables in the human body as they are not as intrusive as traditional implants. Their small size also opens up the possibilities for hundreds of sensors to be distributed throughout the body to capture specific data points. Many researchers are already making headway in this realm. Scientists in the Department of Pharmaceutical Science at Northeastern University have developed a number of different nanosensors that are capable of measuring the levels of different chemicals in the body, such as a glucose nanosensor that can continuously measure glucose levels for people living with diabetes and nanosensors that can measure therapeutic levels of lithium and histamine. Labs at Princeton and the University of California, Berkeley have been able to detect temperature at the cellular level using nanosensors and quantum dots. A lab at the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid has developed flexible, thin-film nanosensors that can be stuck to uneven surfaces, like human skin, to measure temperature, breath, and heart pressure. Currently, there isn’t a full spectrum of nanosensors that can provide a holistic analysis of chemicals in the body like vitamins, minerals, and hormones that are essential to health. But, as nanosensors become more sophisticated, they will enable us to have more comprehensive insight into the internal operations of the human body. Durability, positioning, and human testing – among many other limitations – are currently holding back the development and implementation of nanosensors in the human body. These sensors need to be manufactured in a high-tech, expensive, cleanroom facility because even the smallest impurity will ruin the functionality of a nanosensor. They also require a kind of onboard power generation so that their lifespan in the human body can be greatly extended. Positioning the sensors at targeted locations in the body is imperative to gathering useful and accurate data, but this is not yet an easy task, making the variability in measurements high. Finally, the implications of injecting these sensors into the human body are not fully known, therefore much more work around the toxicology and longitudinal effects must be done. These limitations make a fully-connected, quantified self at least 10 years away from hitting the market. Limitations aside, these advancements in nanotechnology push our definition of what the quantified self really means. To date, data has remained centered around the individual and what we can learn about ourselves. When a system of nodes distributed throughout the body can provide a complex perspective on what is going on inside, questions begin to arise around how this data can be used in the context of everyday life in the ecosystem of IoT.

Simply collecting a multitude of data points from an individual does not yet make the development of nanosensors relevant to IoT, but how this data is used can undoubtedly intersect with it. Once all of these data points are collected into a central hub, we have the capability of sharing it in many ways. To date, the main motivation for this type of data collection has been, unsurprisingly, healthcare. Outside of the aforementioned examples of measuring glucose or lithium levels, researchers are also measuring immunity response to cancer cells; this leaves little room for doubt that the health industry can be revolutionized by the complex data collected by hundreds of nodes distributed throughout the body. Aside from these more obvious health applications, this data can also be leveraged to interact with smart IoT devices in new ways. Imagine your Nest syncing with the individual body temperature of every person in a room and adjusting the space accordingly, or your Sonos system knowing when your stress levels are high so that it automatically plays soothing music, or your car receiving an instantaneous readout of your blood alcohol content upon entering the vehicle to determine whether or not you are safe to drive. Your mobile phone could also use this data in many interesting ways, such as pushing a recommendation to “eat a banana” because your potassium levels are low, or “take three deep breaths” because it senses a spike in anxiety. While off-the-shelf and hacked devices can accommodate many of these uses, it takes a great effort to implement and manage these scales with each new piece of technology placed on the body, embedded within a household item, or carried in a pocket. Nanosensors have the potential to enable these use cases without such overhead and with sharper accuracy and lower latency.

The QSM began with recognizing the desire to collect empirical data in order to investigate day-to-day life so that participants could make more informed lifestyle decisions. The goal was, through data collection and continuous experimentation, to be able to better understand what affects us, motivates us, and drives us as humans. Although a powerful tool for self-knowledge, the movement remained niche, existing in the lab journals of researchers and spreadsheets of diligent enthusiasts. It wasn’t until the emergence of the smartphone and web applications, which made individual data collection simpler and more convenient, that the QSM expanded into the public view. Today’s quantification tools are mostly manifested in the form of personal health trackers, such as the Fitbit and Jawbone. By automatically syncing data with your smartphone and measuring more than just physical activity, these products have begun to counter the drop in engagement that they experienced a year ago, as reported by Parks Associates. According to CNET, however, with the recent introduction of smartwatches like the Apple Watch and Samsung Gear, these personal health trackers are looking for ways to stay competitive in the market of the quantified self. In an effort to improve long-term engagement, the wearable industry is seeing a rapid growth in partnerships with a variety of service providers as well. Fitbit, for example, has been working hard at building their partnerships with other fitness and health companies, like Strava, in order to create a more uniform experience around fitness and health tracking. There has also been a notable shift from closed data platforms to more open architectures, where external individuals or companies can leverage the data from devices to create personalized experiences for users. The Guardian has reported that “a growing number of insurance companies and employers [are] offer[ing] financial incentives to people who use [fitness tracking] gadgets” in order to gain access to these appealing insights. So what does that mean for the future of the quantified self? With the growing popularity of IoT in our environments, we are likely to see a surge of new interconnected wearable and connected devices that not only record our actions, but also interpret them more intelligently in the context of our environment. However, as we break down our actions and interactions with the outside world into ones and zeros, one of the next great evolutionary leaps for the quantified self occurs when we can interpret what is happening within our bodies in response to external factors.

PHOTO: GIULIA

Power in Numbers: IoT and the Quantified Self

Changing the Rules As QSM technology advances, an individual’s data will shift and will begin to connect into the IoT ecosystem. This shift will benefit us in a multitude of ways, from how we approach healthcare treatment to daily conveniences. Perhaps surprisingly, the biggest impact that this data will have might not be in healthcare or technology. Rather, it has the potential to significantly change our everyday human-to-human interactions, fundamentally altering how we connect with each other and respond to the internal chemical fluctuations of others. Talk about changing the rules of attraction. //// Brandon Smith is an innovation strategist at Idea Couture.

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Ocean of Noise: The Sharing of Emotions Through Brain-to-Brain Communication

How Do You feel? The ability to thoroughly express emotions via technological means can provide us with a better sense of mutual understanding. In the meantime, innovators are trying to revolutionize and improve how we communicate our emotional states, with the aim of bypassing traditional interactions that involve language, posture, and facial expression. For example, occupational therapists have developed a wearable touch vest technology, the T.Jacket, to apply air pressure to simulate the feeling of a warm hug, allowing people to comfort anyone who is stressed and anxious. On the other hand, the GER Mood Sweater interprets emotion using galvanic skin response sensors and then displays the wearer’s excitement levels with a whimsical, illuminated collar. These, as well as many other devices in the field of affective computing, give us insight as to how we can pervasively communicate emotions through new modalities. However, these manifestations are still only mediation tools that do not directly or seamlessly convey the actual state of an individual’s emotion from person to person. There have been various attempts at experimenting with brainwaves to facilitate communication between people. For example, Necomimi’s neuro-controlled cat ears detect the EEG of the wearer in order to show other people how relaxed or excited they are. Microsoft’s Moodscope allows us to measure our mood daily with an online card game based on psychology, and can be shared via email with friends who can support you by elevating your mood. These devices have the potential to facilitate brain-to-brain communication, but are still far from achieving it; they can only send brain signals to devices for analysis, but cannot send analyzed data directly to the brain.

B y at u l pat i D a r anD allen tsai

What Do you Mean? According to Mark Robert Waldman and Andrew Newberg, authors of Words Can Change Your Brain, every individual neuron in our brain has a mind of its own, as well as a neuroelectrical communication signal. This variance also applies to humans: every individual develops a unique style of communication, but we are often not aware that other people understand our words differently from how we intend. Because of this complicated space of inference and prediction, people impose their individual biases on incoming communications in order to make meaning out of the data. The result: communication is facilitated poorly without us being aware of it, and this can lead to negative responses such as confusion and frustration. Communication with people from different cultures is also challenging. Cultures provide us with different modes of thinking, seeing, hearing, and interpreting the world. In many cases, the same words can mean different things to people from different cultures, and the same emotion can be expressed using

different words. It’s therefore very common that misunderstandings and confusion increase when the people conversing are not from the same place or do not speak the same mother tongue. The book Emotion by James Kalat and Michelle Shiota, for example, mentions an in-field research study done on Tahitian life and language that explains how they have 46 words for anger, yet not a single word for what we call sadness. Does the absence of this word mean that Tahitians do not ever feel sad? In contrast to the Tahitian language, the variability of word choices in American English that describe different kinds of sadness can completely skew the intended message with a wrongly chosen word. For instance, a person feeling blue at work on Monday isn’t necessarily depressed. However, if we have the technology to understand emotion by receiving a signal directly from our brains, we could prevent the potential for confusion and differences in opinion; it could help us become better aligned with the feelings of others and build stronger relationships.

Is This What You Really Think? Such complexity also exposes the dangers of a potentially hacked brain signal. If a hacker disrupts a brain-to-brain communication, how would a person receiving the signal differentiate between the hacked emotional communication and the intended communication? In what ways could this emotional hacking lead to new manifestations of emotional contagion (the tendency for two humans to subconsciously catch an emotion from each other)? This phenomenon is similar to what happens when a flock of birds suddenly takes off because one of the birds is startled. Social contagion theory research by Stanford University states that feelings, attitudes, beliefs, and behavior can indeed spread through populations as if they were somehow infectious. This contagious behavior is due to the presence of a cluster of cells in our brain called mirror neurons. In a similar fashion to how one person can inspire a whole crowd to clap and cheer, feelings or behaviors, even those that are undesired or harmful, can spread between people like a virus. If our brains were to be linked to a network that directly shares the emotions of the participants, there is a danger that a rapid cascade of emotions could become overwhelming. There Are so Many Questions… Of course, it will take years to reach the stage where emotions are shared over an internet using brain-to-brain communication, and it will remain a controversial technology until various security, privacy, and policy issues are addressed. Questions will arise, like what if we can design something that can directly alter certain neurons and make chemical changes to achieve a shared mental state? Will it make it possible to lease someone else’s brain or experiences? What if we could implement all these interactions using our subconscious mind? Would we be able to handle this shared emotional reality? Or would we drown in the cacophony? //// Atul Patidar is an electrical designer at Idea Couture. Allen Tsai is an innovation strategist at Idea Couture.

PHOTOS: GIULIA

As we stand today, the ways in which humans communicate emotion is mediated by tools, such as pictures, body language, and spoken and written language morphologies constructed of recombinatory signs. Imaginative refinement of these base communications, combined with advancements in technology, have resulted in poems, songs, books, telegraph messaging, telephone calling, radio and television broadcasting, social media, and online video gaming. Interactions using these tools have allowed people to keep in touch with friends and family at various levels of fidelity, but they don’t always allow for the kind of closeness that we’ve historically been accustomed to – coming home to a loved one, going out with a friend, or sharing a family meal. All of these examples speak to a sense of warmth and intimacy not always achieved through the words and images shared on social media. But what if we could share emotions directly from one brain to another? Would we be comfortable in exploring the technology that allows us to keep our ever-mobile networks closer than ever before? Affect, including attitude, mood, and emotional response, form an integral part of our communication process. However, emotions are difficult to express, translate, and convey through visual and text-based languages and their various mediums, often leading to misinterpretation and conflict. This is poised to change, as the convergence of neuroscience and IoT has the potential to connect human brains over a network, changing the way we communicate our subjective experiences with others.

Can You Get to the Point? Current brain-to-brain technologies require us to follow a certain set of steps in order to communicate our emotional states to others. The current transfer speed is slow and, although major strides have been made, further advancement is needed. The research on direct brain-to-brain communication via the internet by Giulio Ruffini, CEO of Starlab, estimates that the brain could only send two bits per minute. But, future technological advancement could lead to a faster instant transfer of emotions via the internet. To be able to transmit the emotions, researchers will have to figure out how to stimulate that segment of the brain. This becomes more difficult when researchers are trying to achieve this stimulation by external means, rather than invasive procedures. There are various other technological unknowns in brain-to-brain communication. For instance, we often spend too much time managing messages received on various devices and, in this spontaneous communication era, it is not the most efficient way to share our emotions with others. If brains were to be seamlessly interconnected, there would be no more need to maintain this time-consuming behavior – we could simply share the emotional state of another person immediately. However, the sender may have to learn new methods for managing mental processes. It would require a lot of focus in order to communicate a direct emotional signal or to address potential errors, such as sending to the wrong receiver or conveying an unintended affective state. Such new skills, as with learning how to read, write, edit multimedia footage, or master a dance, will require significant training and practice. Another challenge that would need to be addressed is the way in which we perceive the messages from other brains. Currently, any brain signals that are sent to us by others are perceived as being the same as the signals that are produced by our own brains, such as our thoughts or decisions. Given that neurons are all unique, however, facilitating brainto-brain communication may require custom interpreter engines for each person using this system.

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How IoT Can Help Feed 9 Billion People

Increasing Yields

Reducing Risk

There are a couple of necessary components that farmers need to know in order to maximize crop yields: when to plant, when to water, and what the condition of their soil is like. The challenge is that these factors vary drastically from acre to acre, affecting yields between fields by up to 75%. Farmers have traditionally relied on gut feelings and experience to maximize their harvest. In recent years, aided by the use of IoT sensors and data analytics, precision farming has emerged. Precision farming uses distributed sensor networks and satellite imaging to monitor key factors such as temperature, moisture, soil nutrients, and historical data of crop growth. These metrics inform farmers of the variability in their fields with unprecedented granularity, allowing them to fertilize where needed, plant more in underutilized spaces, and accurately predict when to plant and harvest. John Deere and other farming equipment manufacturers are integrating with these networks to automate tasks, such as land preparation and seed sowing, to help optimize farming practices. Although, it’s still too early to tell what long-term improvements precision farming can bring, in some cases it has helped increase yield by 50%. Furthermore, by sharing their data on platforms provided by companies such as DuPont and Monsanto, farmers can gain access to predictive yield analytics that factor in potential improvements farmers can make in the off season and share foresight into weather forecasts. This also grants access to experts who analyze and offer advice for how to further increase land productivity and manage it moving forward.

Even today, disease and pest breakouts are some of the biggest risks faced by farmers. The most common preventative measures for commercial farms include the application of pesticide and herbicide. Companies like Dolphin Engineering and their PreDiVine system are looking to change this practice. By analyzing data collected by many of the same sensors employed for precision farming – such as temperature, moisture, and rainfall – PreDiVine creates models of microclimates within fields and uses research on pest and disease incubation to predict outbreaks. These systems could also predict weed outbreaks in the future, allowing farmers to change their pest and weed prevention strategy; instead of mass spraying chemicals, they can target problematic areas. An additional benefit is that farmers who use natural seeds can implement such a solution to keep their product organic, increasing the value of their yields. Data about microclimates and soil conditions could also allow farmers to mitigate business risks, by allowing them to diversify and grow various crops that maximize yield in different parts of their field, while restoring soils naturally through perennial composting. IoT systems can offer similar insights and benefits for dairy farms and livestock, using cow-monitoring systems like the one from SCR Dairy. These devices use motion sensors, GPS, and microphones – the same technology found in fitness trackers – to give farmers real-time alerts about livestock health, whether their cows are in heat, labor, or simply not eating as much. This significantly reduces labor needs and enables livestock farmers to carefully monitor herds of hundreds of cows from an iPad. The combined data of where seeds were planted or cows have been, combined with disease predictive algorithms, could provide significant breakthroughs in food safety. The ability to trace disease outbreaks and study the conditions in which they emerged could lead to better understanding causes and effective quarantines, eliminating widespread food waste.

PHOTOS: LIMA PIX

The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts that by 2050, the world population will rise by 2.3 billion and, to effectively feed that population, our food production needs to increase by 70%. According to research conducted by the University of Minnesota, production for essential crops – such as maize and rice – is currently incrementing at about 1% per year. If our current rate holds, the world will fall well short of the 70% goal, making increasing food production one of the biggest challenges our generation will face in the next 40 years. So what can be done to meet this growth? One suggestion is to dedicate more land to farming. Although simple in its directness, this may not be viable in the long run, as a population boom and rising sea levels increase land value for housing and urbanization. More land also means more water supply, and in recent years, certain markets (like California) have actually seen declines in agricultural yield from droughts as climate change causes

water shortages and makes agricultural planning unpredictable. On the other end of the spectrum, the immergence of new production methods, such as lab grown meat as well as vertical and insect farming, hold the potential to solve issues related to resource and supply limitations. However, these methods face infrastructure and monetary challenges that require policy changes to effectively scale. In the cases of lab grown meat and insect farming, education and acceptance will also see a slow progression. Looking back, agriculture saw massive gains in crop yield with the introduction of farming equipment such as tractors, pesticides, and better seeds. Now, farmers are turning to IoT. Companies such as DuPont and Monsanto, alongside a number of startups, are investing millions in creating connected farming equipment, consisting of massive sensor networks that gather environmental data to free analytics platforms in order to research three critical questions: how can we increase yields, reduce risk, and be profitably eco-friendly?

PHOTOS: US DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

By fa r h a n n o M a n i

// Farms are becoming, in some respects, smart-farm hubs. //

Profitable Eco-Friendly Farming Pesticide, herbicide, and fertilizer, along with being the largest sources of pollution from agriculture farming, also have the highest variable costs for farmers. But being able to make effective changes often involves slowing or even endangering production, thus hindering the adoption of more sustainable farming methods. Education around the ecofriendly and cost-effective results of implementing IoT devices on farms is essential for making industry professionals willing and ready to adopt these new technologies. For example, by predicting soil needs in advance, farmers can plant legumes or other natural crops that maintain soil efficacy. This drastically reduces the use of artificial chemicals and, by proxy, farmers’ operational costs. Other companies, such as Smart Watering Systems, are linking information from weather forecasts to create automated irrigation systems, reducing a farmer’s water use by 30-70% and significantly minimizing their environmental impact, while also providing huge savings.

By and large, the same subset of connected sensors are enabling new farming methods, crop and animal health monitoring, and rendering eco-friendly solutions more cost effective. As this set of hardware becomes ubiquitous, farming of the future is shaping up to be more of an exercise in interpreting data and seeing who can provide personalized insights to maximize production, profitability, and long-term growth. DuPont, Monsanto, and other companies that provide ongoing services and value to their consumers in the form of data analytics, will ultimately compete to control data from users. Farms are on their way to becoming entirely automated. As mobile devices continue to improve and are capable of receiving, analyzing, and adjusting behavior accordingly in real time, farms are becoming, in some respects, smart-farm hubs. This integration, facilitated by IoT, could create truly intelligent, autonomous farms – making it easier to produce what we need for looming food shortages. The impact that IoT and data analytics are having on agriculture demonstrates how they can help solve problems in other industries that are repetitive, inconsistently face the same issues, span large areas, and require both people and machines in order to thrive. Both construction and mining, for example, have similar characteristics to agriculture and are already adopting IoT. Using data and machineto-machine communication, construction companies are improving the transition time on sites, allowing them to build faster. In mining, distributed sensors are analyzing soil and rock samples to make drilling decisions for long-term planning. These are all indicators of IoT being deployed on large scales – moving out of the smarthome to become the tools that will change the way we mine, build, and feed more than 9 billion people. //// Farhan Nomani is an electromechanical designer at Idea Couture.

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By iDris Mootee a n D M a r ya M n a B av i

In simplifying complex systems that involve humans, frameworks such as Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs are often used to model product and service features based on various predetermined scenarios. Such frameworks are often taken out of context of their original proposition, and lack empirical evidence. For example, Maslow originally proposed his hierarchy as a set of human needs that required fulfilment in order for people to attain selfactualization – but the majority of products and services are not developed with this goal in mind. Additionally, to date, despite multiple attempts to generate empirical evidence, the hierarchy of needs lacks proof. Ask any anthropologist, and they will tell you that humans are not nearly as fixed and easy to predict as these frameworks would suggest. People are complicated. As such, our needs are not engineered for stacking and compartmentalizing. They’re constantly shifting in response to our ability to leverage our biological, sociocultural, economic, and physical environment. They are not necessarily hierarchical, and we don’t know if consumers place a greater value on any one in particular.

Contrary to this article’s introduction, our goal is not to disprove Maslow or other common frameworks describing human needs, but rather to describe how our complex and interconnected needs and expectations demand a multidimensional approach for analysis. Through this proposition, we challenge a belief that is commonly held by product designers: that people must be simplified into generalizable, linear hierarchies. Such a process is overly reductionist in nature and objectifies the very people whose lives we hope to better. To deliver compelling experiences, human needs should be linked to the particular emotive, cognitive, and functional features of a context. Our past research proves that needs and priorities vary between groups and time/ context. In a study around families that live in connected homes, we discovered that something as fundamental as home security is a high priority for some families on certain occasions (for example, when away from the home) but a lower priority (and, in some cases, obtrusive to their privacy) during other times. This shift in need hierarchies is pervasive and often occurs without notice. When you are hungry, food is important. When you need to send an important message to someone, your

demonstrated that there is a hierarchy for consumer decisions that persuade and influence consumer preferences towards certain products, such as Nest, as opposed to other options for climate control in the home. This is not only because it looks good, but also because of how the product creates a perception of “smartness” by demonstrating superiority in function. It triggers a sense of curiosity and a sense of superiority in the consumer. It becomes an entry to future possibilities yet to unfold. This is carefully done through the product’s aesthetics (Nest resembles HAL, the AI agent in 2001: A Space Odyssey) and a seamless experience. From installation, to daily use, to troubleshooting, it has been designed in a way that makes us feel as though all potentials for failure have been anticipated. An interesting question is whether consumers prefer functional products or aesthetically

ILLUSTRATION: MIKE

Hierarchy of Possibilities: Designing Smart IoT Products

smartphone is all you care about. However, people attempt to eat a sandwich while walking down the street and texting, or surf the web on their smartphones at the dinner table in an attempt to satiate both needs at once. There are no permanent hierarchical relationships. The simplicity and logic of many consumer theories suggest that a hierarchical model should have some relevance to consumer behavior. Our view, however, is that any study focusing on needs addressed by marketing decisions, such as product design, should offer contextually relevant hierarchical structures associated with needs of a given situation, and reveal novel relationships influencing consumer decisions – rather than minimizing all human needs into a strict hierarchy. Evolutionary psychology – which studies how people adapt in response to shifts in context to attain personal goals – offers a much more robust framework to analyze behavior and can help in creating dynamic scenarios of how a system’s logic can adapt in response to consumers’ needs and choices. Although modeling a dynamic system that can respond to situated human needs in an end-to-end experience is a step forward in designing future connected products, we believe there is another variable that influences many consumer decisions, challenging the notion of problem- or need-based design: designs that trigger strong emotions. Design is a major competitive weapon and invites emotional relationships that can elicit product desire, even when there is no clear need perceived by a consumer. Success stories, like the Ford Taurus and Black & Decker’s revitalization of GE's small appliance business, testify to the selling power of attractive designs. Such cases created a fundamental shift in their respective categories, transforming historically mundane, functional products into objects of desire. This approach to product design not only created a perception of need among consumers, but it also created sensitivity towards how every generation’s style and design language changes, generating a need for more frequent updates and upgrades. Technology firms like Apple have used this as the core principle of their design philosophy and have added value through innovative and attractive designs to differentiate their products. Whether this adds any true value to the consumer’s life is not clearly understood, but history has shown that having the right combination of design details in the product’s features, winning the key moments of the user experience, and having emotional aesthetics that supersede functional performance creates a high perceived value that activates and encourages consumption. Our past research about smarthomes

pleasing products, if given a lack of options that satisfy both qualities. When consumers have to choose between a Nest thermostat and another brand with less beautiful design but better technology, they are confronted with a trade-off between aesthetic and functional features. Favoritism towards Nest suggests a perceived greater value in the aesthetics of this particular device category. It has to do with the “perceived satisfaction” rather than performance, reliability, or additional features. Consumers also link the modern design to a price premium. Our future (or not-so-future) smarthomes will contain elements of many different technological disciplines and business rules, such as home automation, home entertainment, security, robotics, and wellness management. So, when we design connected products for the home of the future, we need to investigate the extent

to which they address a variety of shifting needs, even if they aren’t critical or are already being fulfilled. Even if we were to accept Maslow’s theory, it’s unlikely that receiving notifications from a pillow or having to negotiate with the dishwasher has any place in his version of self-actualization. In designing future products and services that are yet to exist, we need to move away from needs altogether, and better understand what influences people’s perceptions of need and value. We need to develop a hierarchy of imagination. ////

Idris Mootee is the publisher and editor-inchief of MISC, and CEO at Idea Couture. Maryam Nabavi is co-head of IC/things at Idea Couture.

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How will the Internet of Things change business?

Radical biz model shifts. Ruthlessly individual. Shockingly local and global. B r i a n D av i D J o h n s o n @BDJfuturist Brian David Johnson is resident futurist at Intel.

Who the hell wants physical objects that feature internet connectivity? By will novoseDlik

Together with the spread of 3D printing, the shift to renewable energy, and a growing collaborative economy, economic and social theorist Jeremy Rifkin sees the Internet of Things as the platform for the â&#x20AC;&#x153;third industrial revolution.â&#x20AC;? We decided to ask writers, educators, entrepreneurs, and executives how they thought IoT would change business. Here are their responses.

alan see @alansee Alan See is CMO of CMO Temps, LLC.

Nic ol as arr oyo @ NicN a a r Nicolas Arroyo is co-founder and foresight strategist at Bespoke. He is also a lecturer in the business & design program at University of Gothenburg.

Totally seamless platforms and services. Digital & analog world merging into one continuous experience.

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Our boxes get smarter, our data gets richer, our customers get better service.

Jeremy Burton @JBurton Jeremy Burton is president, products & marketing at EMC.

Who is the customer when the refrigerator is using analytics to make the grocery list?

j o e ta n k e r s l e y @ j o e _ta n k e r s l e y Joe Tankersley is designer of strategic narratives at Unique Visions.

john dragoon @jkdragoon John Dragoon is EVP and chief marketing officer at Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

IoT in education allows for anytime, anywhere adaptive learning.

Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;m imagining a host of really insecure things.

Steffen ChriStenSen @ WikiSteff Steffen Christensen holds a Ph.D. in AI and is senior policy researcher at Policy Horizons Canada.

Consumers today expect corps to understand individual needs, which requires data. IoT will help manage across devices & context.

B e ata W i c k B o m @ B e ata W Beata Wickbom is a digital strategist, speaker, and founder of Stockholm-based HejDigitalt!

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IoT will help business be more productive. Connect. Get insights. Take more action earlier.

T r av is B o g a r d @ T r av is B o g a r d Travis Bogard is VP product management & strategy at Jawbone.

IoT requires better partnering. Seamless, integrated experiences delivered by a system of devices provided by different companies.

Mik ah SellerS @Mik ahSellerS Mikah Sellers is chief digital officer at Grafik, and adjunct professor of business at Georgetown University.

beth comstock @bethcomstock Beth Comstock is CMO at General Electric.

IoT offers agencies the opportunity to rethink advertising, marketing and customer experience & elevate brands to a new level.

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Create/ Justina Blakeney

How do you integrate your love for plants and nature with your passion for design and textiles? I use both plants and textiles very liberally in my design work. They are the easiest things to use quickly and totally transform a space, even on a budget. Plus, plants carry good energy, so bringing them into a room can change the space not just visually but also energetically. Now, with the release of my wallpaper collection with Hygge & West, I’m

able to seamlessly integrate plants and patterns into a space through the “jungalicious” wallpaper motifs, which is really fun. How did you come up with the idea for The New Bohemians? I came up with it when I tried (unsuccessfully) to pitch a book about my blog, Jungalow, which ended up being too niche. So I took a look at some of my favorite design books, from The Selby is in Your Place to Remodelista and Domino, and I made long lists of what I loved about those books. I then put all of

those things together and came up with what is now The New Bohemians. Which client/corporate partnership has been the most rewarding? I’ve had a ton of great experiences, but designing a rooftop oasis for CB2 was especially memorable. What are some words you would use to describe your style? Colorful, pattern-ful, “jungalicious,” maximalist.

PHOTOS: JUSTINA BLAKENEY

By Mira BluMenthal

What is the role of social media at the intersection of your art and your business? Building my audience has taken about six years, and a lot of trial and error. I spend a lot of time looking at the stats and metrics from all my social platforms to see what performed the best and what resonated with my audience. I find that when people feel like they are a part of something, they are more likely to purchase. So I try to let my audience in on my projects and give them a behind-the-scenes glimpse at what I do. At the end of the day, the true mark of

success isn’t just about having your audience buy your products; it’s having them share those products with friends, family, or their own social audience. In order for people to want to do that, the product has to be solid. Gimmicky things have a short shelf life. In your opinion, what is the difference between a house and a home? How does interior design play into this? A house is an empty shell. A home is where your family is – even if your family is

a few philodendrons and a goldfish! I actually don’t think interior design plays much of a role in this, it’s really about love. For more information about Justina Blakeney, visit: justinablakeney.com or @justinablakeney on Instagram. ////

Mira Blumenthal is an editor at Idea Couture.

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How would you describe your style, both personally and professionally? My personal style is classic, but always with a pop of color. This carries over into my work aesthetic, as well as interior decorating style.

the time frame, all of my collections have their own personalities and storylines that aim to be timeless. Each concept ignites an adventure; I traverse the globe to bring my inspired visions to life, and the ultimate goal is to have an incredible moment hanging on the purchaser’s wall for years to come.

Describe what you consider the lifecycle of one of your pieces – from ideation, to purchase, and beyond. Some concepts take years of planning, while some take only months – but regardless of

It seems like almost every established brand wants to work with Gray Malin. Did you anticipate branching out to fashion, food, and home decor? The type of work I like to create is

By Mira BluMenthal

approachable, yet it has a bit of unexpected whim which people connect to and want to incorporate into their own lives. It will always begin with photography, but the extension into other mediums, like fashion, has been very organic. I like to partner with brands that align with my aesthetic, like Sperry – both of our brands are so closely connected to the ocean and a beachfront lifestyle. I also like to create my own products, like iPhone cases and beach towels, that are easy to incorporate into someone’s day-to-day. It really has been a natural evolution of the Gray Malin

PHOTOS: GRAY MALIN

Create/ Gray Malin

brand, from artwork to relatable lifestyle products.

what I try to bring to the brand – I want to create things that make people happy.

to have readily available in your home or office, don’t you think?

What differentiates Gray Malin “the artist” versus Gray Malin “the brand”? How do the two intersect? Excellent question. The lines do get blurred at times, but what helps to keep things separate yet interconnected is that, I, the artist, live the lifestyle that’s represented in the brand. I connect to visual things, whether it is art or a fashion item, that make me stop, take a second look, and then smile. This is exactly

Tell us more about your tagline, “Make every day a getaway.” Describe the escapism and sense of whimsy in your work. It’s about capturing a moment in time that evokes a sense of adventure and joy, whether it’s a place that you have fond memories of, or a dream getaway destination. To have a piece of artwork that takes you there just by looking at your wall is a pretty incredible thing

For more information about Gray Malin, visit www.graymalin.com and follow @graymalin on Instagram. ////

Mira Blumenthal is an editor at Idea Couture.

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MP05-LaFerrari. A truly exceptional watch. A world record-holder. 50-day power reserve and a high-tech design developed with Ferrari. Limited edition of 20 pieces.

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