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The Malta Independent | Thursday 31 March 2011
ICT Feature
When computers exceed human intelligence
Roderick Spiteri Roderick Spiteri is Marketing and Communications Executive at MITA and editor of Malta Independent ICT feature
The Malta Independent ICT Feature
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tudents currently studying for their exams have surely thought on how blissful it could be if they somehow managed to upload all their study books to their brain. In today’s ICT Feature we look at The Age of Spiritual Machines, a book published in 1999 about the future course of hu-
manity, particularly with regards to artificial intelligence. By today some of the predictions made 12 years ago in this book have already materialised and thus became true. This makes us eager to look at what else this book is predicting for the future – and trust me, some are wild! However, what makes this
book gripping is that the author, Ray Kurzweil, builds very compelling arguments backed up by scientific data. We will also look at a recent study by McAffee and SAIC which show how cyber criminals are shifting their attention onto corporate intellectual data and how cyber attacks are becoming more and more sophisticated.
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n today’s ICT Feature, we will look at The Age of Spiritual Machines this book, which inspired a music album, was written by an author who has been described as ‘the restless genius’ by the Wall Street Journal and ‘the ultimate thinking machine’ by Forbes. To get a better feeling of what the book proposes, one must start by examining the author - Ray Kurzweil. He has been called as ‘the rightful heir to Thomas Edison’ by Inc magazine and was included as one of 16 ‘revolutionaries who made America’ by PBS. Kurzweil was the principal developer of the first CCD flat-bed scanner, the first omni-font optical character recognition (OCR), the first print-to-speech reading machine for the visually impaired, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of accurately duplicating the sounds of real instruments such as the grand piano, and the first commercially marketed vocabulary speech recognition technology. In his book The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence, published on 1 January 1999, he discusses how today’s advances in computer intelligence will eventually lead to machines that are more intelligent than human beings. The machines, he adds, will also develop human sensitivities which lead to an increased blurring between machines and humans. By citing physics, biology and other scientific disciplines, Kurzweil makes fairly compelling arguments. The book is divided into three main parts. In the first part, Kurzweil probes the past and looks at the trends which were vital in getting us to where we are and he continues by building a convincing case of why these trends are expected to continue. The second part looks at where we are now, the choices we have and the forces that will continue driving the advancements in technology. Here he presents the argument that we will soon start implementing technological advances, simply because they make life better. In the third and final section, Kurzweil starts by skipping a whole decade and shows how life would be when living with the technology of that era. He starts by 2009, then skips to 2019 and to 2029. He then takes larger steps and skips to 2049, 2072 and finally to 2099. One is intrigued to see what predictions this book makes for the future and what grabs ones attention is that everything is backed up by convincing data. Chapter 9 of the book lists 108 predictions for 2009. 2009 • computers are largely portable, with people having at least a dozen on or around their bodies, networked together; •Rotating memory (CDs, hard disks) are on their way out; •The majority of text is generate by speech recognition software; •Distance learning through computers is commonplace; •Computer-aided devices are used to help the disabled; •Virtually all communication is digital and encrypted; •Most purchases of books, videos and music are digital downloads; •Warfare is dominated by unmanned intelligent airborne devices; •Translating telephones are commonplace (callers speaking in different languages) •Human musicians jam with cybernetic musicians. •Tele-medicine is widely used (physicians examine patients at a distance with virtual reality) Kurzweil maintains that out of the 108 predictions for 2009, he managed to get 102 correct as of 2010. The predictions for 2019, are: •A $1000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain;
•The summed computational power of all the computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race; •Computers are embedded everywhere (in furniture, jewellery, walls, clothing, etc) •Humans experience 3D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas. Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people; •People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. •Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. •Most people own more than one PC and the concept of what a “computer” is has changed considerably: It’s no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of shapes and sizes. •Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. •Rotating computer memories are no longer used. •Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere. •Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents. •Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. Students still learn together and socialize, though this is often done remotely via computers. •All students have access to computers. •Blind people wear special glasses that interpret the real world for them through speech. Sighted people also use these glasses to amplify their own abilities. •Deaf people use special glasses that convert speech into text or signs, and music into images or tactile sensations. •People with spinal cord injuries can walk and climb steps using computercontrolled nerve stimulation and exoskeletal robotic walkers.
•Language translating machines are of much higher quality, and are routinely used in conversations. •Access to the Internet is completely wireless and provided by wearable or implanted computers. •The vast majority of business interactions occur between humans and simulated retailers. •Household robots are ubiquitous and reliable. •Computers do most of the vehicle driving - humans are in fact prohibited from driving on highways unassisted. Furthermore, when humans do take over the wheel, the onboard computer system constantly monitors their actions and takes control when necessary. •Humans are beginning to have deep relationships with automated personalities, which hold some advantages over human partners. The depth of some computer personalities convinces some people that they should be accorded more rights. •Public places and workplaces are ubiquitously monitored to prevent violence and all actions are recorded permanently. Personal privacy is a major political issue, and some people protect themselves with unbreakable computer codes. •Human-robot relationships begin as simulated personalities become more convincing. •Virtual artists (creative computers capable of making their own art and music) emerge in all fields of the arts. 2029 •A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain. •Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use. •The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears and are capable of recording what the user sees and hears. •Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available.
They are capable of augmenting natural senses and of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed and overall intelligence. •Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers “know” literally every single piece of public information generated by human beings. •Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality— with complete sensory stimulation— without any external equipment. People can have their minds in a totally different place at any moment. This technology is in widespread use. •The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few humans. •The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real “robot rights” movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of civil rights and legal protections machines should have. •Reverse engineering of the human brain completed 2049 •Food is commonly “assembled” by nanomachines. This food is externally indistinguishable from “natural” food, but can be made much healthier since production can be controlled at the molecular level. This technology decouples food production from climate conditions and the availability of natural resources. •The distinction between virtual reality and “real” reality becomes confounded as foglets come into common use, allowing immediate assembly or disassembly of all sorts of physical objects. 2072 •Picoengineering (technology on the scale of trillionths of a meter) becomes practical. 2099 •Natural human thinking possesses no advantages over computer minds. •Machines have attained equal legal sta-
tus with humans. •Humans and machines merge together in the physical and mental realms. Cybernetic brain implants enable humans to fuse their minds with A.I.s. •Clear distinctions between humans and machines no longer exist. •The world is overwhelmingly populated by A.I.s that exist entirely as thinking computer programmes capable of instantly moving from one computer to another across the Internet (or whatever equivalent exists in 2099). These computer-based beings are capable of manifesting themselves at will in the physical world by creating or taking over robotic bodies, with individual A.I.s also being capable of controlling multiple bodies at once. •Individual beings merge and separate constantly, making it impossible to determine how many “people” there are on Earth. •This new plasticity of consciousness and ability for beings to join minds alters the nature of self-identity. •Organic human beings are a small minority of the intelligent life forms on Earth. Even among the remaining Homo sapiens, the use of computerised implants that heavily augment normal abilities is ubiquitous and accepted as normal. The small fraction of humans who opt to remain “natural” and unmodified effectively exist on a different plane of consciousness from everyone else, and thus find it impossible to fully interact with A.I.s and highly modified humans. •”Natural” humans are protected from extermination. In spite of their shortcomings and frailties, humans are respected by A.I.s for giving rise to the machines. •Knowledge and skills can be instantly downloaded and comprehended (learned) by most intelligent beings. Free from this time-consuming burden, A.I.s now focus their energies on making new discoveries and contributions. •Femtoengineering (engineering on the scale of one quadrillionth, i.e. one thousandth of a trillionth, of a metre) might be possible.
•A.I.s communicate via a shared electronic language. •Artwork and music created by machines encompasses areas of the light spectrum and frequencies of sounds that normal humans cannot perceive. •Money has deflated in value. •Computer viruses are a major threat since most intelligent beings are software-based. •A.I.s frequently make “backup copies” of themselves, guaranteeing a sort of immortality should the original A.I. be killed. •The concept of “life expectancy” has become irrelevant to humans and machines thanks to medical immortality and advanced computers. •The pace of technological change continues to accelerate as the 22nd century nears. The third part of the book is driven by the reasoning that human intelligence is changing very slowly whilst machine intelligence is doubling every two years. Readers ask themselves “can humans win this race?” In a representation by Kurzweil which shows the exponential growth of computing, he estimates that PCs are now at about the intelligence level of a fly. At the predicted doubling rate, PCs should be able equal to humans by about 2019. So in 2019, your computer will be as smart as you. By 2021, it will be twice as intelligent as you and by 2014 it will be four times as smart, and so on. Another point is that computers are already designed and built by other computers. No human can place millions of transistors which the modern CPU consists of. Readers therefore ask themselves “what happens when computers that are smarter than humans start designing the next generation of computers?” The way the book illustrates the future, will definitely grab your attention and makes you look at the world of tomorrow with a different perspective. This review was written by referencing a number of sources, including Wikipedia for a summary of the presented predictions.
Cyber Criminals are after Corporate Data and Trade Secrets A study compiled by security firm McAfee and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) found that cybercriminals are now specialising in intellectual capital and sensitive corporate data - this is the latest cybercrime currency. The report, based on a survey of more than 1000 senior IT decision makers in the US, UK, Japan, China, India, Brazil and the Middle East highlights the shift of cybercrime from individuals to businesses. Whereas in the past cybercriminals targeted personal information such as credit card and social security numbers to sell in the black market, they have now realised that selling a company’s proprietary information to competitors or foreign governments cashes bigger rewards. A company’s corporate value is no longer derived from physical assets – it’s now measured by the intellectual corporate capital which a company owns. This capital consists of all the value that a company derives from its intellectual property including trade secrets, marketing plans, R&D findings and even source code, and nowadays most of this is stored in the cloud. Recent analysis by Ocean Tomo Intellectual Capital Equity estimates the value of intangibles at around 81% of S&P 500 companies’ value. This mass of intellectual property is what drives cybercriminals. Lately attacks such as ‘Operation Aurora’, which targeted Google and at least 30 other firms, have shown a so-
phisticated approach designed to steal intellectual capital. More recently, the ‘Night Dragon’ attacks on oil and gas companies around the world has managed to exfiltrate gigabytes of highly sensitive internal information over a period of several months. The report shows that threats are now coming from inside and outside the organisations. WikiLeaks, for example, poses a new threat for businesses as insiders will be increasingly tempted to release secrets related to their employer for financial or technological gains, to increase the level of transparency or because they feel the
need to expose what they believe is ethically or morally wrong. The report continues by saying that the publicity around WikiLeaks, has made companies take more seriously what should be confidential, what should be public and what should be protected. “The distinction between insiders and outsiders is blurring,” said Scott Aken, vice president for cyber operations at SAIC. “Sophisticated attackers infiltrate a network, steal valid credentials on the network, and operate freely – just as an insider would. Having defensive strategies against these blended insider threats is essential,
and organisations need insider threat tools that can predict attacks based on human behaviour.” Investment in IT security is increasing. In 2008 companies spent about $3 for the protection of $1 of data. This has proportionally increased to $4.80 in security for every $1 of data stored abroad because many companies have decreased the amount of data stored abroad while keeping the same protections. The sophistication of attacks orchestrated by cybercriminals has also increased. In china, Japan, UK and US, organisations are on average spending more than $1 million a day on their IT. The global corporate state of security is seemingly unprepared to protect itself from the sophistication of attacks generated by the underground economy, states the report. Mobility and social media channels are identified as two forces that astronomically increase the level of risk organisations face with regards to leaked data. The danger increases also because of the organisation’s need to share critical data with key partners. The report concludes with some approaches on how companies can protect their intellectual capital. It states that for policies to make a difference, they must work hand in hand with advanced solutions and be implemented along with technology for deep packet inspection, data loss prevention, advanced threat monitoring, forensics and even taking particular data off the network.