Coal Insights, November 2021

CONTENTS

6 | COVER STORY

17 Seaborne thermal coal offers plunge in November 18 Falling steel demand pulls down coking coal prices

COP26 and Coal: Towards the new sustainability paradigm

19 India’s September coal imports down 22% 20 CIL’s coal production up 6% in October 21 SCCL’s coal production up 36% in October 27 ‘Coal transition may turn messy, complicated’: study 30 Coal crisis improving gradually 34 October auction premium for importers jumps to 300%

A look at the impact of Climate Summit on coal mining sector.

22 | FEATURE Coal gasification mission proposes major sops, bold policy decision Close coordination between stakeholder ministries suggested.

35 | FEATURE

37 October sponge iron production remained flat 38 India’s cement production up 22% in Q2

Coal India readies price hike to ref lect rising costs

44 Coal handled by major ports up 25% till October 45 Indian Railways’ coal handling up 27% till October 46 New Hope sees hope for coal in Australia 47 US coal consumption for power to rise 18% in 2021 48 Smart towns as solution for rehabilitation of landlosers 50 CIL operating profit margin to stay at 20%: Analysts 53 JSPL to get own Aussie coking coal in December 54 Corporate update 56 Government update 58 E-auction data 60 Port Data

4 Coal Insights, November 2021

Decision was delayed due to supply crisis: CMD.

39 | INTERVIEW

“Need for equipment will increase exponentially” Mine Line Pvt Ltd MD Nandini Chakravarty talks about opportunities and challenges facing the sector.

51 | CORPORATE

NTPC coal production up 2.6 times in Q2 Achieves H1 coal production of 5.54 mt.

COVER STORY

COP26 and Coal

Towards the new sustainability paradigm Sumit Maitra

6 Coal Insights, November 2021

COVER STORY

T

he 26th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (CoP26) took place in the backdrop of a global surge in power demand that drove up prices of coal to new highs.

The context exposed the contradiction in the efforts of nations to put an end to the use of coal.

The outcome, as expected, was a compromise.

However, keeping aside the minor controversy over changing the phrase “phase out” to “phase down” in the outcome statement, several notable achievements were made.

Close to 90 percent of the world is now committed to Net Zero against 30 percent in 2019.

Scores of countries made commitments to phase out coal power, including five of the world’s top 20 coal power-dependent countries.

Major international banks committed to effectively end all international public financing of new unabated coal power by the end of 2021 while at least 25 countries and public finance institutions commit to ending international public support for fossil fuel by the end of 2022.

Nearly 450 financial institutions with $130 trillion of assets under management committed to Net Zero while 5,200 plus firms joined the Race-to-Zero campaign.

“Coal phase-out pledge was not signed by major coal emitters, but halting coal funding by 2022 is a positive sign,” said Boston Consulting Group, exclusive consultancy partner to COP26.

Only 5 out of top 20 power generating countries - Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Poland, Ukraine - committed to phase-out by 2040s while largest coal users - China, India, US, Japan, South Africa, Australia did not sign the pledge.

“Securing a 190-strong coalition to phase out coal power and end support for new coal power plants and the Just Transition Declaration show a real international commitment to not leave any nation behind,” COP26 President, Alok Sharma said adding that there is a need to accelerate access to

electricity for more than three-quarters of a billion people who currently lack access,” COP26 President Alok Sharma said.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres sounded less optimistic.

“The approved texts are a compromise.

They reflect the interests, the conditions, the contradictions and the state of political will in the world today,” he commented.

Major collaboration initiatives at COP26

Green grids initiative – One sun one world one grid Jointly led by India and the United Kingdom, the new initiative, called ‘Green Grids Initiative – One Sun One World One Grid’ (GGI-OSOWOG), is aimed at accelerating the development and deployment of interconnected electricity grids across continents, countries and communities, and improve energy access of the poorest through mini-grids and off-grid solutions. Featured as one of the leading initiatives under the Glasgow Breakthroughs, the initiative saw active support from Australia, France and the United States.

Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet The GEAPP, with $10bn funding from philanthropies and development banks, aims to deliver clean, renewable energy to 1 billion people in developing and emerging economies and create 150 million green jobs by 2030. The partnership will include up to £25 million from GEAPP to support the Energy Transition Council’s Rapid Response Facility.

Breakthrough Agenda Over 40 world leaders have backed and signed up to the new Breakthrough Agenda, including the US, India, EU, China, developing economies and some of the countries most vulnerable to climate change – representing more than 70 percent of the world’s economy.

Modelled on the UK’s landmark Net Zero Strategy, the Breakthrough Agenda will help countries and businesses coordinate

“The new announcements put forth a clear ambition of the Modi government to tackle climate change more aggressively.

In order to do so, the market will aim to increase its lowcarbon power capacity to 500GW by 2030 and meet 50 percent of its total energy requirements by 2030.”

Fitch Solutions and strengthen their climate action each year, scale and speed up the development and deployment of clean technologies and drive down costs.

The aim is to make clean technologies the most affordable, accessible and attractive choice for in each of the most polluting sectors by 2030, particularly supporting the developing world to access the innovation and tools needed to transition to Net Zero.

SEAD initiative A total of 14 countries including India, Indonesia, Japan and Nigeria – part of the Super-Efficient Appliance Deployment or SEAD initiative - committed to the largest ever increase in product efficiency by signing up to a global goal of doubling the efficiency of lighting, cooling, motors and refrigeration by 2030 with support from the Climate Group’s EP100 initiative of 129 businesses.

Coal Insights, November 2021

7

FEATURE

Coal gasification mission proposes major sops, bold policy decision Coal Insights Bureau

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he National Coal Gasification Mission has proposed to the government major incentives to promote coal gasification including 15 percent methanol-blending target with petrol to encourage investments in the sector.

The mission document has also proposed close coordination between various stakeholder ministries such as P&NG, chemical and fertilisers, steel, coal, power for the success of various coal gasification projects.

India has a huge reserve of coal of about 344 billion tons (bt) of non-coking coal out of which about 163 bt is proved reserves and with the current rate of consumption; it is expected to last for more than 5 decades.

About 80 percent coal is used in thermal power plants. With environment concerns and development of renewable energy, diversification of coal for its sustainable use is inevitable.

Coal gasification is considered as cleaner option as compared to burning of coal and has diversified use of coal in other form of energy.

Syngas can be used to produce gaseous fuels such as hydrogen, substitute natural gas (SNG or Methane), di-methyl ether (DME), liquid fuels such as methanol, ethanol, synthetic diesel and chemical and petrochemicals like methanol derivatives, olefins, propylene, mono-ethylene glycol (MEG), nitrogenous fertilisers including ammonia, DRI, industrial chemicals along with power generation.

Value chain of coal gasification

“Grant of long-term Fuel Supply Agreements will ensure the supply of coal from a single source helping to curb the sensitivity of the gasifiers due to the difference of physical and chemical properties of coal from different sources.”

Recommendations

Based on various consultations made, the following actionable points have emerged for the mission: Allocation & linkages The best suited condition for the lower maintenance and operational cost for the optimum performance of the gasifier is when the feedstock is not diversified.

“Grant of long-term Fuel Supply Agreements will ensure the supply of coal from a single source helping to curb the sensitivity of the gasifiers due to the difference of physical and chemical properties of coal from different sources,” the document said.

The identification of mines with better grade of coal suitable for surface gasification will help the stakeholders to identify assets for future auctions. Keeping in the mind the mega gasification projects, allocation of coal blocks will be better option than long term coal linkages as far as the pricing of coal is concerned, the mission has recommended.

Gasification technology adoption There is a need to develop research and development facilities on similar lines of China to promote gasification technology in India.

22 Coal Insights, November 2021

FEATURE

October auction premium for importers jumps to 300% Coal Insights Bureau

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eflecting elevated global coal prices and rising demand for power in the country, premium on coal sold through e-auction held exclusively for importers has touched 300 percent over notified price in October 2021, as per data collated by the Coal Ministry.

The coal offered in the auction during the month was one-third of what was offered in the previous year– just 0.05 million tons (mt) against 1.6 mt - indicating that the premium was partly driven by the scarcity of coal available for auction as Coal India had to divert a major part of its output to the power sector to avert any power crisis in the country.

The average premium over notified price allocated to importers during the AprilOctober 2021 period was 50 percent with 2.33 mt being allocated during the period

against 1.6 mt allocated in the corresponding period of 2020.

The premium in the special forward e-auction for the power sector rose 174 percent in October with 1.15 mt being allocated. The allocation was significantly lower than 6.51 mt allocated in October 2020.

In the April-October period, allocation under special forward e-auction was higher y-o-y at 18.49 mt against 16.58 mt in the previous year.

Under spot e-auction, only 0.41 mt was allocated in October 2021 against 5.06 mt in the corresponding month of 2020.

The quantity allocated during the seven months of the current fiscal under spot e-auction was 15.51 mt against 21.69 mt allocated in the corresponding period of 2020.

The premium realised in October 2021 was 97 percent over notified price.

“Whatever we are offering, the premium is

Spot e-auction Qty. Allocated October, 2021 0.41

Qty. Allocated October, 2020 5.06

Increase over notified price 97%

Qty. Allocated April-October, 2021 15.51

Qty. Allocated April-October, 2020 21.69

Increase over notified price 61%

Qty. Allocated October, 2021

Qty. Allocated October, 2020

Increase over notified price

Qty. Allocated April-October, 2021

Qty. Allocated April-October, 2020

Increase over notified price

1.15

6.51

174%

18.49

16.58

29%

Qty. Allocated October, 2021

Qty. Allocated October, 2020

Increase over notified price

Qty. Allocated April-October, 2021

Qty. Allocated April-October, 2020

Increase over notified price

0.00

3.36

–

20.16

16.80

28%

Qty. Allocated April-October, 2020 2.29

Increase over notified price 81%

Exclusive e-auction for non-power

Special spot e-auction Qty. Allocated October, 2020 0.28

Increase over notified price –

Qty. Allocated April-October, 2021 2.66

Special spot e-auction for importers Qty. Allocated October, 2021 0.05

Qty. Allocated October, 2020 1.60

Increase over notified price 300%

34 Coal Insights, November 2021

Qty. Allocated April-October, 2021 2.33

Replacing imported coal

Coal India is targeting the lower grade coal being imported by power plants and has so far been successful in replacing 45 percent of the G9-G11 grade range coal this year by offering similar grades of domestic coal to the importers, Agrawal told analysts.

The total addressable market for Coal India to replace imported coal is 100 mt of domestic coal, which, in terms of quality, translates to around 70 mt of imported coal.

“We have been able to supply 60-70 mt of extra coal to replace that,” he said.

Following a sharp rise in international coal prices, coastal power plants using high grades of coal have reduced imports substantially and the deficit in the generation is being replaced by domestic coal-based power plants and supplies to those plants have also been enhanced.

Premium improves over Q2

Special forward e-auction

Qty. Allocated October, 2021 0.00

very high,” Agrawal told analysts during a conference call.

“In October, supplies to e-auction were less because of power crisis and low stocks at power houses for which we had to provide extra supplies to the power sector. In October, we supplied 56 mt to the power sector, 4-5 mt more than last year,” the Chairman said.

There was no exclusive e-auction for nonpower sector or special spot e-auction during October as Coal India prioritised supplies to the power sector during the month.

Qty. Allocated April-October, 2020 1.60

Increase over notified price 50%

Coal India’s second quarter average e-auction premium was at 15.3 percent which has now gone up to 50 percent. “It has re-started e-auction to non-regulated sectors, which should result in improved profitability,” analysts said.

E-auction target for FY22

Coal India in FY21 booked 120 mt in the e-auction and sold 94 mt. “We will try to achieve that figure of previous year but giving any firm commitment would be difficult as I don’t know how the power demand is going to pan out,” Agrawal said. Sales to the power sector are at 20 percent discount to the nonpower sector.

FEATURE

Coal India readies price hike to reflect rising costs Coal Insights Bureau

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oal India is likely to announce a hike in prices of coal in line with elevated global prices and rise in costs of production, Chairman Pramod Agrawal told analysts on November 25.

“I am quite sure that it will happen soon.

Coal price increase is something where we have to bring the stakeholders on board.

That process is on. Everybody understands that we have reached a point where coal price increase has become inevitable,” Agrawal told analysts during a conference call.

The expected rise in prices should be seen in the context of the fact that Coal India hasn’t undertaken any hike for the past 4-5 years, he said.

While Coal India has been trying to raise coal prices for the past couple of months, it couldn’t be done as the priority shifted to meeting the coal supply issues that threatened a nation-wide power crisis, Agrawal indicated.

But now that the crisis has been resolved to a large extent, the issue of raising prices has been revived.

“In October, because of the (coal) crisis, everybody was shaky,” the Chairman said.

Coal India in the second quarter suffered a hit of `600 crore because of rise in diesel prices by around `18 a litre, Finance Director Samiran Dutta said.

Coal India consumes 130 crore litres of diesel a year to operates its heavy earth moving vehicles and other mining equipment.

Apart from input cost rise, Coal India also need to take into account likely rise in employee costs following the conclusion of wage negotiations for its works.

In the second quarter, Coal India has made a provision of `300 crore to reflect expected rise in employee costs.

The quarterly provision doesn’t reflect actual rise in wages as negotiations are at a nascent stage, Dutta clarified.

Global coal prices: time to cool off

Seaborne thermal coal prices have dropped by an average $70-75/ton FOB over the last four weeks. Prices are expected to remain soft as continued market intervention by the Chinese government may lead to further softening of China’s domestic prices.

The downside is limited as there is strong demand for power following roboust economic activities although there is a threat of the pandemic resurfacing again as seen in several European economies.

“The prices shall be supported by a strong power demand, driven by robust industrial activities, winter demand, supply concerns in key exporting countries, supply chain constraints and a continued strong steel sector demand ex-China as against China curtailing steel production. However, if the Covid-19 infections resurge in China or there is a slowdown in Chinese real estate demand along with metal production cuts, the coal consumption may slow down, leading to higher availability of coal and thus, a softening of the prices,” India Ratings said.

The rating agency believes the coal import prices could sustain at the current high levels due to limited downside risks with no sharp corrections likely over the current quarter.

Skyrocketing thermal coal import prices

Import prices for Indonesian-origin thermal coal, primarily consumed in the power sector, surged by 105 percent during June to October 2021 (higher by around 375 percent) on a sustained high demand from China, which is grappling with an acute coal shortage and continued supply concerns regarding heavy

“I am quite sure that it will happen soon. Coal price increase is something where we have to bring the stakeholders on board. That process is on. Everybody understands that we have reached a point that coal price increase has become inevitable.”

Pramod Agrawal, Chairman, Coal India rainfall in Indonesia. “While the onset of the monsoon season in Indonesia and priority to domestic demand obligations shall partially support prices on persistent supply concerns, as China’s domestic supply increases with additional coal mines commencing production and increased focus on thermal coal production over coking coal, import demand may subside leading to a softening of the import prices,” analysts said.

South Africa-origin thermal coal prices, primarily used in sponge iron manufacturing in the steel sector, followed a similar trend on continued supply disruptions in the transportation services to the RCBT port in South Africa, limited cargo availability, limited stocks on Indian ports and a sustained high export demand on winter re-stocking needs.

Prices corrected to some extent following rise in natural gas supplies.

Coal Insights, November 2021

35

CORPORATE comprising of 89.20 mt of domestic coal and 0.88 mt of imported coal.

The coal supply during the corresponding previous period was 78.75 mt, with 78.40 mt of domestic coal and 0.35 mt of imported coal.

During H1, PLF of coal stations of NTPC was 69.63 percent as against the national average of 57.7 percent.

The generation loss due to grid restrictions in coal-based stations was 36.82 billion units (BU) in H1 FY22 as compared to 61.19 BU in H1 of FY21.

The generation loss on account of fuel supply constraints was 3.43 BU for H1 FY22.

NTPC coal production up 2.6 times in Q2

Operational highlights for Q2/H1 FY22

Coal Insights Bureau

N

TPC’s coal production from its own mines increased 2.6 times during the second quarter to 2.79 million tons (mt) from 0.77 mt in the corresponding quarter of previous year.

During the first half of FY22, NTPC achieved a total coal production of 5.54 mt compared to 4.46 mt in the same period year ago.

Cumulatively, 37.90 mt coal has been

excavated from Pakri-Barwadih, Dulanga and Talaipalli coal mines till September 30.

Cumulative expenditure of `7,500.45 crore has been incurred on the development of coal mines till that date.

Coal supply

During the H1 of FY22, materialisation of coal against ACQ was 94.14 percent as against 87.43 percent in H1 FY21.

Coal supply during H1 was 90.08 mt,

NTPC’s standalone gross generation in Q2 was 74.81 BU and in H1 FY22 it was 146.56 BU as compared to 67.67 BU and 127.86 BU in the corresponding previous periods registering an increase of 10.55 percent and 14.63 percent respectively.

Gross Generation of NTPC Group in Q2 FY22 was 90.97 BU and in H1 FY22 was 176.78 BU as compared to 77.93 BU and 145.88 BU in the corresponding previous periods registering an increase of 16.74 percent and 21.19 percent respectively.

Capacity addition

In H1 FY22, NTPC added 2160 MW to its commercial capacity, comprising 800 MW at Darlipalli, 660MW at Tanda, 15 MW solar capacity at Bilhaur, 25 MW floating solar capacity at Simhadri and 660 MW at Nabi Nagar.

Coal supply position Quarter ended Quarter ended Change % change Quarter ended Change September 2021 September 2020 (Q2-o-Q2) (Q2-o-Q2) June 2021 (Q2-o-Q1)

% change 6 months ended 6 months ended Change % change (Q2-o-Q1) September 2021 September 2020 (6M-o-6M) (6M-o-6M)

Coal Produced

2.79

0.77

2.02

262.34

2.46

0.33

13.41

5.25

3.19

2.06

64.58

Domestic Coal

43.39

38.21

5.18

13.56

45.81

(2.42)

-5.28

89.20

78.40

10.80

13.78

Imported coal

0.42

0.15

0.27

180.00

0.47

(0.05)

-10.64

0.88

0.35

0.53

151.43

Total

43.81

38.36

5.45

14.21

46.28

(2.47)

-5.34

90.08

78.75

11.33

14.39

Coal Insights, November 2021

51

CORPORATE

JSPL to get own Aussie coking coal in December Coal Insights Bureau

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oking coal from Naveen Jindal-led Jindal Steel and Power’s (JSPL) Russel Vale mine in Australia is likely to reach Indian shores by early December helping the steelmaker to protect its margins from rising coking coal prices.

“First consignment of coking coal of 50,000 tons from our Australian mine is likely to reach by end November or early December. We would be producing 2-2.5 million tons to begin with and will slowly ramp it up,” V R Sharma, MD, JSPL told analysts during a conference call.

Higher coking coal price would impact margins in the third quarter with upward trend in premium hard coking coal prices continuing, rising beyond $400/ton for the first time ever, JSPL management said.

However, incremental supply from Russel Vale mine in Australia and declining iron ore prices should help contain margin compression from rising coking coal prices, JSPL told investors.

JSPL’s Wollongong Coal owns two coking coal mines – Wongawilli and Russel Vale. JSPL’s thermal, coking and anthracite coal assets are spread across Australia, Mozambique and South Africa.

Plans Botswana coal mine project

JSPL is reportedly planning to start building a coal mine in Botswana’s southeastern Mmamabula coalfields in 2022, which will feed a planned power project in South Africa and also target the export market.

JSPL in 2018 acquired Canada’s CIC Energy Corp giving the company access to CIC’s estimated 6 billion tons of thermal coal assets in Botswana.

The coal resource is located in the Mmamabula Coalfields of southeastern Botswana, adjacent to the country’s main

road and rail corridor which links the country’s capital, Gaborone, with its second largest city, Francistown.

The Mmamabula Coalfields form the western extension of South Africa’s Waterberg Coalfield, which contains approximately 40 percent South Africa’s coal resources, along with Eskom’s 3,690 MW (net capacity) Matimba power station and Exxaro Resources Ltd’s 19 million tons per annum Grootegeluk coal mine.

The two prospecting licences, RL2009/1R (also referred to as the Central Block), and PL11/2004 (divided into the Eastern and Western Blocks) are 100 percent owned by CIC Energy subsidiaries. The total area for the two licences is 295.4 square kilometers.

The Central Block is the site of the planned coal mine (Serorome Mine) envisaged to supply the Mmamabula Energy Project’s 1,200 MW power station.

The anticipated capacity of this coal mine will be approximately 6.3 mtpa, yielding 4.7 million metric sales tons per year.

The mine that will support the planned 300 MW domestic power project will be located in the Western Block (PL11/2004) and will utilise about one-third of this block.

Existing JSPL global coal mines

♦ Mozambique: Chirodzi mine produced 954 kilo tons ROM (up 9 percent y-o-y) in Q2. Mozambique operations reported EBITDA of $17.2 million (up 417 percent q-o-q) on rising coking coal prices ♦ South Africa: Kiepersol mine in South Africa produced 181 kilo tons ROM (up 22 percent q-o-q). The mine reported an EBITDA of $1.8 million for the quarter on the back of improved coal prices ♦ Australia: Russell Vale mine has started production post receiving the final go ahead from the regulatory authorities.

JSPL is expected to get the first shipment

“First consignment of coking coal from our Australian mine is likely to reach by end November or early December. We would be producing 2-2.5 mt to begin with and slowly ramp it up.”

V R Sharma, MD, JSPL in November/December. Wongawilli continues to remain under care and maintenance as Wollongong Coal Ltd is working towards securing additional approval for restarting the mine.

Impact of rising coking coal prices

The second quarter saw sharp rise in input costs, impact of which was compounded by exhaustion of low-cost iron ore inventory in the first quarter.

“Upward trend in coking coal (premium hard coking coal) prices have continued in October, rising beyond $400/ton for the first time ever. Higher coking coal prices is likely to impact margins going forward.

However, incremental supply from WCL’s Russel Vale mine in Australia and declining iron ore prices should help contain margin compression from rising coking coal prices,” the company said.

Against coking coal prices of around $400 a ton, JSPL’s cost of production in Australia is $90 a ton. The actual cost would include freight charges, washing costs and also costs associated with converting coking coal to coke at coke ovens.

Considering long-term contracts and sourcing of own coking coal from Australia, JSPL sees a modest impact of $50 per ton of steel due to coking coal price rise.

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62 Coal Insights, November 2021