COVID-19 in Strategic Intelligence of WEF

COVID-19 Dynamic Briefing Generated 03 September 2020 for Marco Antonio Gonzalez

COVID-19 Last review on Thu 23 July 2020

About This dynamic briefing draws on the collective intelligence of the Forum network to explore the key trends, interconnections and interdependencies between industry, regional and global issues. In the briefing, you will find a visual representation of this topic (Transformation Map – interactive version available online via intelligence.weforum.org ), an overview and the key trends affecting it, along with summaries and links to the latest research and analysis on each of the trends. Briefings for countries also include the relevant data from the Forum’s benchmarking indices. The content is continuously updated with the latest thinking of leaders and experts from across the Forum network, and with insights from Forum meetings, projects communities and activities.

2 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

Executive summary COVID-19 threatens to become one of the most difficult tests faced by humanity in modern history. As the pandemic has spread it has taken lives, stirred anxiety and political drama, overwhelmed health systems, and triggered potentially lasting geopolitical change. The International Monetary Fund says the global economy now faces its worst downturn since the Great Depression, and Oxfam International has warned that half a billion people could be pushed into poverty as a result of the unfolding crisis. Around the world, desperate efforts are underway to contain what has become a profoundly disruptive outbreak.

1. The Media’s Role During COVID-19 Balancing the public’s need for critical information with business interests can be tricky.

2. Response and Recovery Public officials and companies walk a fine line as they attempt to reopen economies.

3. COVID-19’s Workforce Impact The coronavirus has kept many employees away from offices, while other workers remain on the frontlines.

4. Avoiding COVID-19 Infection and Spread People have been encouraged to stay home, but many mobility restrictions are now being eased.

5. Finding a Vaccine Some efforts to develop a COVID-19 vaccine appear to be making progress.

6. COVID-19’s Impact on Trade The WTO has warned that global trade could decline by as much as 32% in 2020.

7. COVID-19’s Impact on Travel Demand for air travel evaporated and new border controls emerged as the coronavirus spread.

8. COVID-19’s Impact on Financial Markets Stock markets have been sent reeling, and assets of all types have been impacted.

3 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

The Media’s Role During COVID-19 Balancing the public’s need for critical information with business interests can be tricky A global pandemic makes sources of information about social impact, risk factors, and the latest recommendations from public officials on slowing the spread of the disease critical. During any outbreak, whether it is COVID-19, SARS, or Ebola, the media plays a key role as agenda-setter - by distilling complex data into easily digestible and useful information. However, COVID-19 has shined a spotlight on several challenges faced by the media as the public looks to it to function as a public-health educator. The first involves balancing the public’s right to critical and timely health information with the media industry’s business objectives.

Some news outlets, including major publications like The New York Times and The Financial Times, are granting people access to coronavirus-related news without the need for a subscription. Others, such as The Boston Globe, have come under fire for maintaining their paywall policy even for articles about the pandemic. Restrictions placed on the right to information potentially penalize the poor, who may not be able to get the most accurate health-related news and information - thereby making them more susceptible to misinformation.

Related insight areas: Future of Media, Entertainment and Culture, Global Health, Corporate Governance, Behavioural Sciences, Internet Governance, Human Rights, Global Governance, Arts and Culture, Inclusive Design, Values

Another big challenge facing media outlets as they cover COVID-19 is the set of unintended consequences of constant exposure to sometimes inaccurate views and information often referred to as the “infodemic.” Concerns have also been raised about people’s mental health as they steadily consume negative news while making disruptive lifestyle adjustments - like working from home and limiting social interaction due to shelter-in-place measures. One survey of Chinese citizens conducted relatively early in the pandemic found that social media exposure was significantly associated with depression and anxiety. Meanwhile irresponsible media coverage has been blamed for fuelling racist assaults on people of Chinese origin, for being potential carriers of a “Chinese” disease. Perhaps the most difficult challenge facing the media is the need to communicate in a way that restores faith in scientific institutions, amid a constant barrage of misinformation related to everything from the concept that exposure to sunlight or cleaning products can prevent COVID-19, to the notion that it does not affect young people. Disseminating such ideas could severely undermine official public health recommendations, and put the public at greater risk.

- This key issue is curated in partnership with Dr. Edmund W.J. Lee, Public Health Communications Scientist and Research Fellow at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

4 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

Latest knowledge World Economic Forum

Niskanen Center

5 things COVID-19 has taught us about fighting climate change

Congress Must Demand Robust Refugee Consultation Amid Record Low Admissions and COVID-19

02 September 2020

31 August 2020 The immediate crisis we are facing today has much to teach us about an even more existential threat: climate change. Here are 5 lessons to take forward.

In 1980, Congress passed legislation that gave the president the responsibility of determining how many refugees would be admitted each fiscal year, and how that number would be split among world regions, after appropriate consultation with the Congress. In the coming weeks, the Trump administration should provide inperson, cabinet-level consultation with the House and Senate Judiciary Committees before coming to a final decision on what the FY 2021 refugee resettlement plan will look like. .

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

How the Swiss fared under partial lockdown 02 September 2020 A joint study by EPFL, the Idiap Research Institute and the University of Lausanne’s Institute of Psychology has provided us with a unique snapshot of how Swiss residents experienced the partial lockdown measures resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. The findings include gender disparities, doubts about the future and hopes for change. .

VoxEU

Reproduction numbers tend to 1 and the reason could be behavioural 31 August 2020

Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton

Standard epidemiological models that show how infection rates in the population rise and then fall assume that people do not understand what’s going on. When people react to infection rates by changing behaviour, the model’s predictions are no longer valid. This column explains why that can mean that pandemics don’t rage out of control but becoming something more endemic. In particular, epidemiological models that incorporate rational economic agents tend to predict that pandemics may move towards a steady state for a significant period of time.

Creating Inclusive Public Policies: Guidelines for Compassionate Regulators 01 September 2020 “A policy’s success largely rests on how well inclusion is embedded in its blueprints,” write Santosh K. Misra and Wharton’s Raghuram Iyengar in this opinion piece.

Australian Strategic Policy Institute

Conflict and Covid-19 are a deadly mix

The Diplomat

01 September 2020

How Japan’s Universal Health Care System Led to COVID-19 Success

We are all grappling with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, but it could not have come at a worse time for people already made extremely vulnerable by warfare. .

28 August 2020 As of August 22, Japan has registered 9.24 deaths per million people due to COVID-19. Though Japan is the most aged country in the world, this mortality rate is much lower than in many other developed countries (i.e., 529.92 in the United States, 609.92 in the U.K., 110.61 in Germany). The reasons for the lower mortality rate in Japan compared to Western countries are still being examined. However, the Japanese health care system is thought to be one of the main factors underlying Japan’s success so far in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic domestically.

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Response and Recovery Public officials and companies walk a fine line as they attempt to reopen economies The reopening of many economies as COVID-19 recedes has been accompanied by intense debate about whether peoples’ lives should be put at risk to keep commerce flowing. By mid-May 2020, China had largely reactivated its factories, even as it was not immediately clear whether a sufficient number of people around the world would be able to buy what they produce. In Singapore, officials went from receiving praise for their response to the outbreak to abruptly having to close businesses and schools when a second wave of cases struck the city-state in April. And in the US, individual states were largely left to devise their own plans for reopening even as the country remained the epicentre of the pandemic - and as public health officials warned of the dangers of relaxing social distancing measures too early. US President Donald Trump signed a $484 billion relief package in April that includes aid for small businesses, and in May the European Commission unveiled a €1.85 trillion post-pandemic recovery plan. Meanwhile demand has grown for bailouts for large businesses similar to what was administered during the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.

Public officials have also sought to find the right balance when it comes to monetary policy. Central banks have responded to the pandemic by cutting interest rates in ways designed to encourage more consumer activity, for example.

Australia’s central bank cut its benchmark rate to a record low, as the US Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of England, Bank Negara Malaysia, and the Bank of Canada took similarly drastic action. In another echo of the global financial crisis, some central banks triggered emergency bond-buying programs aimed at bolstering bond prices and curbing related interest rates (when the US Federal Reserve announced it would slash its benchmark rate, it also said it would kick off a $700 billion “quantitative easing” asset-purchase program). The European Central Bank, without much room to maneuver on interest rates, unveiled its own, €750 billion quantitative easing program in response to the pandemic. The central bank in China, where COVID-19 was originally detected in late 2019, has said it will use a variety of measures to limit the cost of borrowing for hard-hit companies.

Related insight areas: Justice and Law, Healthcare Delivery, Vaccination, Civic Participation, Pandemic Preparedness and Response, The Great Reset, Global Governance, Agile Governance, Humanitarian Action, Financial and Monetary Systems, Workforce and Employment, Public Finance and Social Protection, Cities and Urbanization

6 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

Latest knowledge Asia Global Institute

Project Syndicate

Rebuilding Cities Better in the PostCovid-19 World

The COVID City 31 August 2020

03 September 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has fallen hardest not just on cities but on poorer, overcrowded neighborhoods, lending further credence to the observation that, in today's world, one's post code determines one's destiny.

But could the pandemic lead to a more advanced and inclusive form of urbanism?.

Covid-19 and its means of transmission have created unprecedented challenges for urban planning. How will cities and their residents cope if present standards of architectural design and creating cityscapes are inadequate or unsafe in the face of new pathogens, asks Jeffrey Kok Hui Chan of Singapore University of Technology and Design. Despite uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus, it could spark efforts to rebuild better cities.

Harvard Business School Working Knowledge

State and Local Governments Peer into the the Pandemic Abyss 31 August 2020

Policy Center For The New South

The national automotive industry faced with the Covid-19: Should we be worried about the impact on the current account?

State and local governments that rely heavily on sales tax revenue face increasing financial burden absent federal aid, says Daniel Green.

UN Women

02 September 2020

Expert’s take: Four lessons from COVID-19 that should shape policy decisions everywhere

The year 2020 is one of the most difficult years for the global automotive industry. The pandemic first appeared in a region of China known for its developed automotive sector. Initially, it was the South Asian manufacturers who first felt the impact of the shutdown in China before the pandemic shifted to Europe and the United States and before the disruption of value chains took on a global dimension. In Morocco, the sector has not remained immune to this turbulent context and its export performance shows a decline of nearly 40% in turnover over the first half of the year.

28 August 2020 Laura Turquet is a Policy Advisor at UN Women, where she leads the organisation’s flagship report, Progress of the World’s Women. For the past decade, she has worked at UN Women leading major research and data initiatives that inform the organization’s advocacy objectives and empower civil society and governments to seek and implement change. She is also a co-founder of the UN Feminist Network.

World Resources Institute

5 Pillars for a Green and Resilient Recovery from COVID-19 01 September 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic and economic crisis is likely to push tens of millions of people into poverty -- and this is only a preview of how the climate crisis will threaten human well-being. Yet we have all the means needed to take a better, safer path.

Project Syndicate

The End of College as We Know It? 01 September 2020 When COVID-19 hit the United States in March, colleges and universities around the country quickly shifted to remote learning. But, as a new semester begins, the pandemic is nowhere near under control, and many institutions are wondering how much longer they can survive with closed or restricted campuses.

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COVID-19’s Workforce Impact The coronavirus has kept many employees away from offices, while other workers remain on the frontlines The number of jobless claims made in the US between the implementation of COVID-19 shutdown measures in midMarch 2020 and mid-May topped 38 million. Meanwhile analysts have speculated that China’s unemployment rate may have reached about 10% amid the crisis, though the official figure has remained at roughly 6%. Around the world, organizations have had to reckon with a new reality where they cannot support the number of employees they could previously, or simply cannot expect employees to take daily commutes in ways that may put them at increased risk of exposure to the coronavirus. In Washington, one of the first US states to see a spike in confirmed cases, firms including Amazon and Microsoft quickly asked Seattle-area staff to work from home, and Twitter has since told its employees that many may work from home permanently. However, other people have not been fortunate enough to be able to work from home; the death toll among National Health Service and social care workers in the United Kingdom topped 300 in late May, and employees at meatpacking plants in the US have been disproportionately exposed to infection.

Related insight areas: Inclusive Design, Systemic Racism, Aviation, Travel and Tourism, Retail, Consumer Goods and Lifestyle, Agile Governance, Digital Economy and New Value Creation, Workforce and Employment, Supply Chain and Transport, Future of Economic Progress, Advanced Manufacturing and Production, Education and Skills, Future of Health and Healthcare, Public Finance and Social Protection, Corporate Governance

In China, the economic slowdown triggered by the outbreak caused many companies to implement pay cuts or other measures. Uxin, which sells used cars online and operates about 1,500 service centres, said in early March it expected it would take “some time” before operations returned to normal, and that it had attempted a “workload-based staffing program” across the company. Even as the number of newly-reported COVID-19 cases in China appeared to be levelling off in late February, only 30% of its small businesses had so far reopened, according to information released by the country’s industry ministry. In addition, factories across China experienced difficulties related to workers being impeded by coronavirus-related safety measures and travel disruptions. Usually bustling locales such as Wenzhou, a city in the southeast of the country that produces much of the world’s shoes, eyeglasses, and clothing, saw their workforces dramatically thinned. In response to spikes in unemployment, policy-makers around the world have sought to deploy relief. In late April, for example, the European Union unveiled a €100 billion unemployment scheme.

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Latest knowledge LSE Business Review

INSEAD Knowledge

COVID-19 may exacerbate the digital divide among businesses

Pandemic or No, It’s Business as Usual for Boards

03 September 2020

31 August 2020

What is the essential task of management? To look after the short term in ways that not only protect, but even enhance medium and long-term prospects. For businesses, the COVID-19 crisis presents massive challenges to fulfilling this quest; it is difficult to pull off even in periods of growth. Previous downturns demonstrated how problematic it is to ride out, for any length of time, dramatic falloffs in sales, inventory problems, customers defaulting on debts, running out of cash, and delayed new products. Understandably, businesses focus on short-term survival and adaptation.

Then begins the slow process of recovery. How are businesses responding this time? And what role will digital technologies play? .

For now, corporate boards prefer to keep the status quo – and the long view – in the face of Covid-19 upheaval.

VoxEU

COVID-19 and the effects of social distancing on the economy 31 August 2020 Social distancing policies are necessary from a public health perspective but can have negative effects on economic activity. Using a newly constructed dataset of sectoral dependence on the use and sale of intermediate goods, this column investigates whether social distancing policies can have negative spillover effects on sectors that are not directly targeted due to input-output linkages. It finds that firms that depend on the sale of intermediate goods to sectors affected by social distancing measures are more affected by the crisis.

The Diplomat

COVID-19 and Japan’s Mysterious ‘Night City’ District 02 September 2020

UNESCO

11 million girls may not return to school

COVID-19’s persistent presence in Japan — with, as of early September, more than 600 daily reported cases on average — has been very often associated with a district called “ Yoru no Machi ” by Japanese media and politicians. The term literally means “night city” and vaguely refers to host clubs, sex establishments, and night clubs, implying physical contact. Does it? Actually, it’s not entirely clear what Yoru no Machi means.

28 August 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has put over 11 million girls at risk of not returning to school, threatening decades of progress toward girls’ education and gender equality. If there are fewer girls in the classroom, it will mean fewer women who can make valuable social and economic contributions to their communities in the future.

If girls lose out, we all lose out.

Rocky Mountain Institute

From In Trouble to Informed 01 September 2020 As the coronavirus swept around the world, dramatic upheaval followed in its wake. Many industries have been devastated while others have boomed, joblessness has spiked as automobile emissions and mobility demand have plummeted.

Harvard Kennedy School – Journalist’s Resource

Reopening schools amid the coronavirus pandemic: 5 research studies to consider 01 September 2020 As education officials re-open schools for the fall semester or debate the possibility, we look at research on the role children play in the transmission of COVID-19.

9 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

Avoiding COVID-19 Infection and Spread People have been encouraged to stay home, but many mobility restrictions are now being eased According to the World Health Organization, the COVID-19 virus infects people of all ages - though older people and those with underlying medical conditions are at a higher risk of getting a severe form of the disease. The WHO recommends that people frequently wash their hands with either soap and water or alcohol-based hand rub, and that they maintain a comfortable distance between themselves and others if they must venture outside. People coughing or sneezing pose a particular threat, as this can spray droplets containing the virus. Rules requiring people to stay home in a bid to limit social contact have been implemented with varying degrees of severity around the world - and in many places are now being relaxed. The WHO also recommends that people avoid touching their eyes, nose, and mouth, as hands can pick up viruses from surfaces. Anyone with a fever, cough, or difficulty breathing is advised to seek medical help. There is evidence that masks can help limit the spread of the coronavirus, and they should generally be worn when making trips for food and other essentials. In a bid to bust coronavirus-related myths, the WHO says there is currently no proof that hydroxychloroquine or any other drug can cure or prevent COVID-19, and that drinking bleach will not only not protect you but may in fact kill you.

Related insight areas: Healthcare Delivery, Future of Media, Entertainment and Culture, Mental Health, Behavioural Sciences, Public Finance and Social Protection, Global Governance, Retail, Consumer Goods and Lifestyle, Values, Vaccination, Global Health, Ageing, Agile Governance

There have been abundant examples of irresponsible behaviour in the face of the spreading pandemic. Mask hoarding became an issue, to the point where the French government felt compelled to requisition all current and future local stocks of protective masks in order to ensure they will be available for health workers and patients. Some of the more egregious examples of irresponsible behaviour have included attempting to assign blame for (or assign a nationality to) the outbreak, attempting to sell “nonmedical immune boosters� as a means to ward off infection, and suggesting that the severity of COVID-19 has been hyped for political purposes. Shortcomings have also been exposed when it comes to official preparation for such an outbreak, particularly in terms of testing capabilities and activity. For example, by the beginning of March South Korea had performed more than 100,000 tests for the coronavirus on patients, or more than 2,000 per million people, while the US had tested less than 500 people in total at the same point. Faulty test kits were initially distributed in the US in February, and there have been some delays in delivering testing kits to states.

10 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

Latest knowledge The Diplomat

VoxEU

As COVID-19 Surges in South Korea, Doctors Are Furious Over Government Training Plan

Lockdown accounting 29 August 2020 Many countries have implemented social distancing and lockdown policies to tame the spread of Covid-19. This column discusses the potential GDP and employment effects of lockdown policies for a broad cross-section of countries ranging in income per capita from Niger to Luxembourg. It shows that the employment and GDP effects of lockdown policies are U-shaped in income per capita. While workers in rich countries have a substantially higher ability to work from home, which mitigates declines in employment and GDP, poor countries concentrate employment and value-added in essential sectors that are not shut down. Middle-income countries see the largest declines as they feature relatively large employment shares in non-essential sectors and relatively low work from home ability.

02 September 2020 South Korea was once praised for its effective response to the outbreak of COVID-19 and showed a sign of recovering from the pandemic ahead of many other nations. The latest numbers tell a different story. The country had reported 20,449 cases of the virus as of September 2, up 267 compared to the previous day. That “marked the 20th consecutive day of triple-digit rises,” Yonhap reported, a streak dating back to August 14.

World Economic Forum

How local modelling can build resilience in the post-COVID era 02 September 2020

World Health Organization

COVID-19 has shown us we need more resilient supply chains and infrastructure - and assessing risks at a hyperlocal level is key to doing so successfully.

WHO's Science in 5 - Herd Immunity 28 August 2020

World Economic Forum

Watch WHO experts explain science related to COVID-19. Today, the concept is Herd Immunity. .

6 tips on how to lead in COVID times 01 September 2020 The business world is undergoing rapid and unprecedented change. Here are 6 ways leaders can help their staff adapt and thrive in this new age.

Project Syndicate

The COVID Middle-Income Trap 01 September 2020 COVID-19 has had a devastating impact on middle-income countries, especially in Latin America. By helping these countries to overcome the pandemic and its economic fallout, the international community will be acting in its own interests, too.

International Labour Organization

COVID-19 and beyond: “How can social dialogue help us get through the crisis together?”

31 August 2020 On 26th August 2020, the International Labour Organization (ILO) and GIZ development agency brought together industry's leaders & experts to talk about how social dialogue can impact and improve COVID – 19 crisis recovery for the garment sector supply chain in Asia. .

11 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

Finding a Vaccine Some efforts to develop a COVID-19 vaccine appear to be making progress Following the outbreak of a strain of the swine flu virus in 1976, public health officials in the US worried that they were faced with a repeat of the 1918 "Spanish flu" that infected roughly a third of the world’s population - and hurried to identify a vaccine. The predicted epidemic never materialized, and hundreds of people vaccinated that year developed a serious adverse reaction. That history informs the way researchers and officials now take a generally cautious approach to vaccine development. The World Health Organization has taken pains to communicate to the public that COVID-19 will require its own vaccine. By July 2020, the developers of three vaccines, including one being devised jointly by the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca, had published promising trial results - though more research was required to determine if any will effectively protect against COVID-19 infection. Meanwhile clinical trials have gotten underway to determine the ability of existing drugs to combat the effects of the disease. One drug designed to fight the Ebola virus, remdesivir, has demonstrated some ability to speed up recovery time for patients infected with COVID-19.

Some studies have suggested that the blood plasma of COVID-19 survivors can be used to help victims, and several efforts were commenced to use the blood of survivors to help develop the first real treatment for the disease; it can be difficult to obtain an accurate fatality rate in the midst of a pandemic, though experts estimated in March that it was about 1% for COVID-19, or ten times the rate of a typical flu.

In mid-April, the WHO published a statement on behalf of a group of scientists, physicians, funders, and manufacturers aiming to speed the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine. The group applauded community measures that have reduced the spread of the virus, and pledged to use the time gained by these efforts to develop a vaccine as rapidly as possible.

However, the ultimate availability of any successful vaccine that is identified may depend on domestic politics. In the US, for example, Democrats have pushed for rules to ensure that a vaccine will be affordable, while Republicans have expressed concern that price controls might discourage companies from aggressively pursuing a solution.

Related insight areas: Human Rights, Inclusive Design, Biotechnology, Future of Media, Entertainment and Culture, Innovation, Vaccination, Future of Health and Healthcare, Justice and Law, Global Health, Global Governance, Healthcare Delivery, Insurance and Asset Management

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Latest knowledge World Economic Forum

Scientific American

COVID-19 and your brain: 6 ways to control the damage to your mental health

COVID-19 Can Wreck Your Heart, Even if You Haven't Had Any Symptoms

02 September 2020

31 August 2020

Do you suffer from a tendency to ruminate? Have negative bias and an alarmist sense of threat? Emotional numbness? Inattention and cognitive fog?.

Beyond its scientific backing, the notion that a COVID-19 patient might wind up with long-term lung scarring or breathing issues has the ring of truth. After all, we hear the stories, right? The virus can leave survivors explaining how they struggled to breathe, or how it can feel, in the words of actress Alyssa Milano, “like an elephant is sitting on my chest.” We’ve also known for a while that some COVID-19 patients’ hearts are taking a beating, too—but over the past few weeks, the evidence has strengthened that cardiac damage can happen even among people who have never displayed symptoms of coronavirus infection. And these frightening findings help explain why college and professional sports leagues are proceeding with special caution as they make decisions about whether or not to play. .

VoxEU

Internal migration and the spread of COVID-19 02 September 2020 Many internal migrants returned to their place of origin after the initial outbreaks of COVID-19 and before national lockdowns were in place. Has this behaviour contributed to the further spread of the pandemic and to its heavy death toll? Looking at the case of Italy and using data on the place of origin and destination of internal migrants, this column finds that provinces more exposed to return migration from areas hit by the pandemic earlier on experienced considerably more COVID-19 deaths in the ensuing months.

IndiaSpend

‘COVID Lessons: Invest In Basic Healthcare, Surveillance & Public Health’

London School of Economics and Political Science

31 August 2020

From Impact to Inequality: How PostCOVID-19 government policy is privatising research innovation

India has been chronically underspending on health, and COVID-19 has put in stark focus the damage that can do, K Sujatha Rao, former Union health secretary says. “We need to have a constant vigil and it is very important to keep investing in basic healthcare, surveillance systems, and public health functions,” she adds. .

01 September 2020 Post-COVID-19 government policy has included an increase in investment in the UK’s research sector.

However, Daniel Hook finds that the emphasis on the impact of this research means that longer-term, less measurable, blue skies research is being pushed into the private sector. Not only is blue skies research the key driver of technological change, but it is also linked historically with the largest redistributions of wealth. If governments around the world adopt policies that lead to the privatisation of tomorrow’s research, the result will be faster increases in wealth inequality, with all that brings. .

Center for Global Development

Mental Health and the COVID-19 Pandemic: What We Knew, What We Now Know, and What We Still Don’t Know 28 August 2020 Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 on mental health is growing. And yet there is still a lot we don’t know about the pandemic’s effect on people’s mental health.

World Economic Forum

Doctor Copper: this Canadian mining company explains how the red metal fights COVID-19 28 August 2020 The COVID-19 virus survives for less than four hours on copper surfaces, compared to up to three days on plastic and stainless steel.

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COVID-19’s Impact on Trade The WTO has warned that global trade could decline by as much as 32% in 2020 In early April 2020, the World Trade Organization announced that global merchandise trade was set to plummet by between 13% and 32% in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile global banks, charged with managing the regular flows of finance necessary to keep trade afloat, have been compelled to figure out ways to keep their trading operations running as usual as they split up departments and isolate employees in a bid to limit the further spread of the coronavirus. Trade shows and conferences have also been severely impacted. Major annual events including the Geneva International Motor Show, the South by Southwest festival in Texas, and the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona have been cancelled (in the case of the Geneva event, for the first time since 1904 for reasons other than a world war), while other normallypopular events have lost out on large numbers of attendees.

As more aspects of global commerce are affected by COVID19, the effects are likely to spread further - prompting a need for more responsive action from international organizations and central banks.

China was home to the first detected outbreak of COVID-19; it is also now commonly referred to as “the world’s factory” due to the significant amount of global manufacturing that takes place there. China accounted for about $4 trillion in manufacturing “value added” (a term that accounts for all net output) in 2018, or nearly a third of the global total for that year, according to World Bank data - and the country is home to seven of the ten busiest container ports in the world. Data published by China's National Bureau of Statistics for the January-February 2020 period, when the number of confirmed cases in the country was rising sharply, reflect declines in domestic factory output, fixed asset construction activity, and retail sales - though figures for March marked the return to a trade surplus for the country.

The shipping companies that bring goods from China to the rest of the world have had to reduce the number of vessels in operation due to lowered demand, however, and in some ways the pandemic has only worsened already-difficult trade relations between China and the US. Related insight areas: Development Finance, Infrastructure, Banking and Capital Markets, Agriculture, Food and Beverage, International Trade and Investment, Global Governance, Agile Governance, Financial and Monetary Systems, Automotive, Emerging Multinationals, Digital Economy and New Value Creation, Geo-economics, Advanced Manufacturing and Production, Supply Chain and Transport

14 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

Latest knowledge Brookings Institution

VoxEU

How the Fed will respond to the COVID-19 recession in an era of low rates and low inflation

Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic 29 August 2020 Fighting COVID-19 has forced countries around the world to make trade-offs between lives and livelihoods. But in countries where many people already live at or close to subsistence, the alternatives are more excruciating yet. This column analyses cases in which the trade-off is actually between lives and lives; in other words, countries that can save their populations from the pandemic or from deprivation, but not both. The authors consider ways to alleviate these trade-offs, as well as their implications for policy – both national and international.

02 September 2020 On September 1, the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy will host Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard to talk about the outlook for the economy and monetary policy, as well as the Fed’s new framework. .

Pacific Forum

Conflict and Coronavirus: How COVID19 is Impacting Southeast Asia’s Conflicts

Project Syndicate

02 September 2020

The Post-Pandemic Economy’s Barriers to Growth

Since COVID-19 spread out of China in January 2020, it has caused unprecedented damage to the global economy and national health systems. The virus also having serious ramifications.

28 August 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic could not have come at a worse time for the global economy. If history is any guide, the current period of deglobalization, public indebtedness, weakening growth, and the expanding economic role of governments does not bode well for sustainable GDP growth.

South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)

Corruption hampers the development of South Africa’s youth 31 August 2020 The coronavirus pandemic has once again exposed the rife corruption and disregard for governance, accountability and transparency by senior officials in South Africa.

The New Humanitarian

Italy’s Lampedusa: Back on the migration front line 31 August 2020 Boat arrivals have surged this summer, overcrowding processing centres and rekindling Italy’s bitter and highly politicised debate over migration.

War on the Rocks

COVID-19 and Economic Competition with China and Russia 31 August 2020 The novel coronavirus pandemic has upended the global economy, reflected in dramatic declines in growth in national economies throughout the world, including those countries that the United States deems its leading global competitors: China and Russia .

15 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

COVID-19’s Impact on Travel Demand for air travel evaporated and new border controls emerged as the coronavirus spread Roughly one million Chinese tourists had been visiting Bali every year before the spread of COVID-19 reduced outbound travel from the world’s second-biggest economy to a relative trickle. Bali is not alone; in Australia, for example, Chinese tourists were estimated to have spent AUD $11.5 billion in 2019 alone, while in Switzerland Chinese tourists accounted for about one-fifth of the international tourists visiting the cities of Lucerne and Bern. Roughly a few months after the coronavirus was first detected, a European Union official announced that Europe’s tourism industry was losing €1 billion per month due to the decrease in arrivals from China.

As the coronavirus spread globally, its impact on travel and tourism only broadened - as more would-be travelers stayed home and public officials tried to prevent outbreaks. On 11 March US President Donald Trump abruptly announced a ban on travelers from dozens of European countries. The move spawned confusion, prompted the panicked buying of early return flights by American tourists abroad, and sent stocks plummeting. It also earned a rebuke from European governments who said they had not been consulted.

Within Europe, the spread of the coronavirus has tested a core belief in fluid cross-border travel and trade. It has also drawn a line under the European Union’s lack of control over an area where most authority resides with national governments. Spain and Portugal partially sealed their borders, while Austria prevented people from crossing into the country from Italy - the hardest-hit EU member state in terms of confirmed COVID-19 cases - without a health certificate (Austria also reintroduced border controls with Switzerland). Germany, too, sealed borders (with the exception of goods and commuters), and the Czech Republic followed an initial restriction on entry to the country from 15 countries including fellow EU members with a broader ban on all inbound foreign travel. The European Commission said in a statement that while member states have the ability to temporarily implement controls at internal EU borders in the event of a serious threat, those controls must remain an exception - and must respect the principle of proportionality. The commission acknowledged that while it can issue opinions about the necessity of such measures, it cannot veto them.

Related insight areas: International Trade and Investment, Geopolitics, European Union, United States, Migration, Aerospace, Aviation, Travel and Tourism, Switzerland, Indonesia, Australia, Arts and Culture, China

16 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

Latest knowledge Policy Center For The New South

Project Syndicate

Covid-19: Are we heading for a war without guns?

Realizing America’s Anti-COVID Potential

02 September 2020

31 August 2020

The crisis of the new Coronavirus is exacerbating the tensions between the United States and China, thus foreshadowing a war without guns, in which the stakes are neither territorial nor ideological, but economic.

Having adopted a vehement attitude towards China, well before this crisis, the tenant of the White House has brandished the threat of economic sanctions against China and is pushing towards its isolation on the international scene in order to contain its influence. In contradiction with Deng Xiao Ping’s famous maxim “Hide your strength and bide your time”, Xi Jinping’s China claims to be a key player on the world chessboard whose quest for supremacy, with its variable geometry, is less and less camouflaged.

The United States should have invested more money in science in recent decades, established a virus and pathogen forecasting service, and built resilient publichealth systems on the basis of cost-effective diagnostics.

And yet, even though the US did none of those things, it can still limit the damage caused by the pandemic.

The Diplomat

Australia’s Aged Care Facilities Have Failed Amid the Pandemic 28 August 2020 Australia’s aged care sector was failing long before the pandemic arrived. A royal commission into the treatment of the elderly in aged care facilities last year found that “the aged care system fails to meet the needs of older, vulnerable, citizens. It does not deliver uniformly safe and quality care, is unkind and uncaring towards older people and, in too many instances, it neglects them.” COVID-19 has simply created an environment in which the mistreatment of elderly Australians has reached an alltime-low.

Institute for New Economic Thinking

COVID-19 Shows that Global Value Chains Shouldn’t Keep Africa in Chains of Dependence 01 September 2020 During this interview, Professor Kako Nubukpo, Dean of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Lomé, Togo and former Minister of Prospective and Evaluation of Public Policy of Togo considers the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 crisis and its repercussions on monetary policy and fiscal reforms underway in West and Central Africa today.

Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Resetting Asia: Technology, Investment, and Sustainability 28 August 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic is posing unprecedented challenges, forcing us to rethink our vision of the future to refocus on creating a more inclusive and sustainable Asia and the Pacific. .

Brookings

American individualism is an obstacle to wider mask wearing in the US 31 August 2020

World Economic Forum

Could copper beat COVID-19? Three lessons from Chile

As Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his running mate Kamala Harris call for a national mask mandate , it provides the first glimpse of how efforts to combat the virus may change radically under Democratic leadership. As we have documented previously, a large segment of the American public has been resistant to wearing a mask to reduce the spread of the coronavirus.

Although we were able to identify important differences in mask usage based on race and partisanship, we were not able to evaluate the underlying reasons that are driving this critical trend. .

27 August 2020 Chile has long led the world in copper-based innovation, using the metal’s antiviral properties to develop products from disinfectant to children’s clothes. When the pandemic came, it was ready.

17 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

COVID-19’s Impact on Financial Markets Stock markets have been sent reeling, and assets of all types have been impacted In addition to having to worry about contracting a fastspreading coronavirus, many investors around the world have also had to contend with the sweeping impact of COVID-19 on financial markets and asset prices. In midMarch, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a measure of 30 of the most prominent publicly traded stocks in America, registered its second-worst day of trading in its 124-year history. For many Americans, particularly those who are saving for retirement with 401(k)-style accounts, the troubled stock market hit close to home. In Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100, France’s CAC 40, Switzerland’s SMI, and Germany’s DAX also took coronavirus-related hits. In Asia, on 13 March Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index recorded its sharpest one-day drop since April 1990. Bond prices also declined sharply amid the turmoil, while gold - usually a safe haven for investors declined in value. Meanwhile as the spread of COVID-19 depleted oil demand, an oil-market war erupted between Saudi Arabia and Russia - which resulted in the price per barrel suffering a steep decline.

As markets were knocked off balance, expectations increased for policy-makers to step in and start implementing stimulus measures aimed at safeguarding global growth - by, for example, lowering (already low) interest rates as a means to potentially facilitate more lending and consumer activity. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced that the bank was ready to take measures to address the impact of the worsening outbreak (the ECB later unveiled an emergency, €750 billion bond-buying program), and central banks including those in the US and Australia swiftly moved ahead with related rate cuts - in Australia’s case, bringing its benchmark lending rate to a record low. A meeting of the G7 nations held in early March illustrated the sensitivity of financial markets to the twists and turns of the coronavirus response; though investors had anticipated some sort of announcement from the high-level gathering of central bankers and political leaders on concrete steps aimed at counteracting the effects of COVID-19, none was forthcoming - and stocks promptly responded by giving up the gains that had been made as hopes for policy relief had built.

Related insight areas: Geo-economics, Banking and Capital Markets, Oil and Gas, Private Investors, Global Governance, Financial and Monetary Systems, Institutional Investors, Public Finance and Social Protection, China, Global Health, International Security, Future of Economic Progress

18 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

Latest knowledge Center for Global Development

VoxEU

Digital Technology in Social Assistance Transfers for COVID-19 Relief: Lessons from Selected Cases

The corona crisis and corporate bankruptcies 31 August 2020

02 September 2020 The corona crisis has hit the Swiss economy hard, with survey results showing that corporate profits and demand expectations collapsed and uncertainty about future business prospects has risen sharply. This column uses unique company bankruptcy data for Switzerland to assess the current bankruptcy trend using the concept of excess mortality. The corona crisis is not causing a wave of bankruptcies for the time being, but it is still too early to give the all-clear.

Many countries have launched unprecedented relief packages to cushion the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This short review considers some initial lessons emerging from selected countries around the use of digital technology to implement these government-to-people (G2P) social transfer programs.

The New Humanitarian

In Peru’s Amazon, Indigenous COVID19 patients get too little, too late

The Diplomat

How COVID-19 Wreaked Havoc on South Korea’s Labor Market

01 September 2020 Unable to get to a hospital, those in remote areas with coronavirus are reliant on shamans, traditional remedies, and community volunteers.

28 August 2020 One of the early protagonists of the struggle against the coronavirus was South Korea. The densely peopled peninsula, just a short hop away from the Chinese trade centers of Shanghai and Qingdao, was ravished early on.

By mid-February, South Korea was the nation with the highest count of new infections after China. Since then its numbers have slipped to a few dozen, but clusters of the disease have resurfaced across the country, often in regulatory blind spots such as at church congregations, fitness dance classes, night clubs, and a logistics warehouse.

World Health Organization

Dr Tedros talks about four things countries can do to curb the pandemic and avoid further lock downs 01 September 2020 "We are 8 months into the COVID-19 pandemic and we understand that people are tired and yearn to get on with their lives, but no country can just pretend the pandemic is over. This virus spreads easily and we all must remain serious about suppressing its transmission and saving lives"- WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus .

Observer Research Foundation

The fear factor: How Portugal tackled COVID19 28 August 2020

TED

Can light stop the coronavirus?

Portugal was hailed as a success story in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The reasons for the relatively controlled spread of the virus have been debated and vary, and whether it can still be deemed a success story, the Portuguese themselves are too cautious to confirm.

As the world prepares itself for a seasonal uptake in cases worldwide in the coming months, how is Portugal faring with this first impact of COVID-19? By 20 August, Portugal registered 1,786 COVID-19 related deaths, with 54,701 confirmed cases and 40,129 recoveries.

31 August 2020 Far-UVC light is a type of ultraviolet light that kills microbes and viruses and, crucially, seems to be safe to use around humans. Radiation scientist David Brenner describes how we could use this light to stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in hospitals, nursing homes, trains and other public indoor spaces -- paving the way for a potentially game-changing tool in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic.

19 COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

References 1. The Media’s Role During COVID-19

5. Finding a Vaccine

5 things COVID-19 has taught us about fighting climate change, World Economic Forum, www.weforum.org How the Swiss fared under partial lockdown, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, actu.epfl.ch Creating Inclusive Public Policies: Guidelines for Compassionate Regulators, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania - Knowledge@Wharton, knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu Conflict and Covid-19 are a deadly mix, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, www.aspistrategist.org.au Congress Must Demand Robust Refugee Consultation Amid Record Low Admissions and COVID-19 , Niskanen Center, www.niskanencenter.org Reproduction numbers tend to 1 and the reason could be behavioural, VoxEU, voxeu.org How Japan’s Universal Health Care System Led to COVID-19 Success, The Diplomat, thediplomat.com

COVID-19 and your brain: 6 ways to control the damage to your mental health, World Economic Forum, www.weforum.org Internal migration and the spread of COVID-19, VoxEU, voxeu.org From Impact to Inequality: How Post-COVID-19 government policy is privatising research innovation, London School of Economics and Political Science, blogs.lse.ac.uk COVID-19 Can Wreck Your Heart, Even if You Haven't Had Any Symptoms, Scientific American, www.scientificamerican.com ‘COVID Lessons: Invest In Basic Healthcare, Surveillance & Public Health’, IndiaSpend, www.indiaspend.com Mental Health and the COVID-19 Pandemic: What We Knew, What We Now Know, and What We Still Don’t Know, Center for Global Development, www.cgdev.org Doctor Copper: this Canadian mining company explains how the red metal fights COVID-19, World Economic Forum, www.weforum.org

2. Response and Recovery

6. COVID-19’s Impact on Trade

Rebuilding Cities Better in the Post-Covid-19 World, Asia Global Institute, www.asiaglobalonline.hku.hk The national automotive industry faced with the Covid-19: Should we be worried about the impact on the current account?, Policy Center For The New South, www.policycenter.ma 5 Pillars for a Green and Resilient Recovery from COVID-19, World Resources Institute, www.wri.org The End of College as We Know It?, Project Syndicate, www.projectsyndicate.org The COVID City, Project Syndicate, www.project-syndicate.org

How the Fed will respond to the COVID-19 recession in an era of low rates and low inflation, Brookings Institution, www.youtube.com Conflict and Coronavirus: How COVID-19 is Impacting Southeast Asia’s Conflicts, Pacific Forum, pacforum.org Corruption hampers the development of South Africa’s youth, South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), saiia.org.za Italy’s Lampedusa: Back on the migration front line, The New Humanitarian, www.thenewhumanitarian.org COVID-19 and Economic Competition with China and Russia, War on the Rocks, warontherocks.com Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic, VoxEU, voxeu.org

State and Local Governments Peer into the the Pandemic Abyss, Harvard Business School Working Knowledge, hbswk.hbs.edu Expert’s take: Four lessons from COVID-19 that should shape policy decisions everywhere, UN Women, www.unwomen.org

The Post-Pandemic Economy’s Barriers to Growth, Project Syndicate, www.project-syndicate.org

Acknowledgements

3. COVID-19’s Workforce Impact

Cover and selected images throughout supplied by Reuters.

COVID-19 may exacerbate the digital divide among businesses, LSE Business Review, blogs.lse.ac.uk COVID-19 and Japan’s Mysterious ‘Night City’ District, The Diplomat, thediplomat.com From In Trouble to Informed, Rocky Mountain Institute, rmi.org

Some URLs have been shortened for readability. Please follow the URL given to visit the source of the article. A full URL can be provided on request.

Reopening schools amid the coronavirus pandemic: 5 research studies to consider, Harvard Kennedy School – Journalist’s Resource, journalistsresource.org Pandemic or No, It’s Business as Usual for Boards, INSEAD Knowledge, knowledge.insead.edu COVID-19 and the effects of social distancing on the economy, VoxEU, voxeu.org 11 million girls may not return to school, UNESCO, www.youtube.com

4. Avoiding COVID-19 Infection and Spread As COVID-19 Surges in South Korea, Doctors Are Furious Over Government Training Plan, The Diplomat, thediplomat.com How local modelling can build resilience in the post-COVID era, World Economic Forum, www.weforum.org 6 tips on how to lead in COVID times, World Economic Forum, www.weforum.org The COVID Middle-Income Trap, Project Syndicate, www.projectsyndicate.org COVID-19 and beyond: “How can social dialogue help us get through the crisis together?”, International Labour Organization, www.youtube.com Lockdown accounting, VoxEU, voxeu.org WHO's Science in 5 - Herd Immunity, World Health Organization,

20

COVID-19 Briefing, September 2020

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