The assessment of the stability of the electronics industry facility in the man-made emergencies

Mechanics, Materials Science & Engineering, January 2016 – ISSN 2412-5954

The assessment of the stability of the electronics industry facility in the manmade emergencies with the use of information technology Hancharyk A.V.1 and Kizimenko V.V.1 1 – Belarusian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronics, Minsk, Belarus

Keywords: evaluation method, system sustainability, electronic industry object, hazard prediction, mathematical model, risk.

ABSTRACT. The object of study is the enterprise (object) of the electronics industry. By industrial object means engineering-technical complex, which includes buildings, structures, power systems, equipment, automated systems, equipment, tools, etc. By the stability of the industrial object we mean ability to produce specified types of products in required quantities in a case of variety of emergency situations, as well as the willingness to self-repairing in if the object proves in the affected area of weak or medium damages. For the stable operation of the facility, in addition to the stability of the object, the security of workers and employees must be ensured, as well as individual and collective protection equipment have to be provided. One of the important indicators for assessing the sustainability of industrial facilities in emergencies is an evaluation of the probability of occurrence of internal and external emergencies and their impact on the operability of the industrial facility. The estimation of probability of occurrence internal and external emergency situation is characterized by a measure of the risk. By the risk means a value, which includes both the probability of accidents and damage from them [1]. The development of criteria for evaluating the stability of the object in the man-made disaster is often identified with the risk. The stability of the facility's operation in the man-made disaster is estimated by the highest acceptable risk. There are the following methods for determining the risk: statistical, model, expert and sociological. Currently, the software «SKEVIA» has been developed, which allows estimating the damage caused by man-made emergencies for a particular industrial facility. Scientific novelty lies in the development of new criteria for sustainable operation of the enterprises of electronic industry. The practical significance lies in the implementation of software «SKEVIA» at the enterprises of electronic industry of Belarus.

Introduction: In this paper, we will consider the work of the facilities of electronic industry in emergency situations. To ensure stable operation of the facility in emergency situations it becomes necessary to increase the level and effectiveness of preventive measures to reduce the scale and impact of disasters. Until recently, the highest priority in solving the problems of protection of the population and territories from emergency situations was paid to eliminate the consequences of accidents, i.e. rapid response to emergencies. However, as time has shown, it is economically feasible to direct limited resources to reduce probability of occurrence of emergencies and to ensure human security, rather than to pay huge costs for covering damage caused by emergencies.

Carrying out activities to identify hazards and the monitoring the probabilities of disaster on the potentially dangerous facilities will prevent the growth and magnitude of the consequences of natural and man-made disasters. The implementation of the complex preventive measures will reduce the cost of the emergency response by 10-15 times in comparison with the avoided damage, and in some cases - to completely avoid them. [2] A rapid change of the conditions of emergency situations significantly complicates quick reaction and the development of adequate measures to eliminate their consequences. Therefore urgent task is a minimization the amount of raw data and the development of a rapid method of predicting not only the areas of contamination and damages with a minimum number of parameters, but also assessment of the risks, which can lead to complete loss of the stability of the facility in the situation of man-made disaster [3].

In order to reduce and optimize the processing time to predict the impact of sources of emergency on the production staff and processes, and for development of measures to prevent man-made MMSE Journal. Open Access www.mmse.xyz

Mechanics, Materials Science & Engineering, January 2016 – ISSN 2412-5954

disaster (and in case of emergency - in order to minimize the damage) is needed to create a software product for operational use by the head of safety department of the facility.

Analysis of recent publications and researches in this area. A great contribution to the development and introduction of methods of assessment of emergency situations have made Akimov V.A., Bariev E.R., Belov P.G., Vetoshkin A.G., Ermin V.G., Mikhnyuk T.F., Kozlachkov V.I., Kukin G.Sh., Safronov A.G., Frolov A.B., Shadsky I.P. and others.

As it was previously mentioned, the criteria for assessing the sustainability of the enterprise are associated with the risk indicator. Currently, there are following methods for determining the risk [1]: – Statistical: based on the statistical analysis of data on accidents; – Model: model of the impact of harmful factors on the production staff, the process and the environment of the facility is built. Such models can describe as a normal mode of operation of the enterprise, as well as damage from an accident on it; – Expert: the risk of accidents, the connection between them and the consequences are determined not by calculation, but by the results of the survey of experienced experts; – Sociological: the danger level is determined by the results of sociological surveys of various large groups of people, which work on the facility.

The probabilities of events, calculated on the basis of information accumulated over a certain period of time in the past can be extrapolated to the future using the law of distribution of random variables in time.

The random variable ζi, which distribution function corresponds to the probability of occurrence of z-th accident scenario, has a compound distribution, calculated by the formula (1): ζi=ξi+γi+ηi,

(1)

where ξi – random variable distributed according to an exponential law and is responsible for the probability of failure due to technical problems; γi – random variable which is responsible for the accident as a result of natural disasters; ηi – random variable is responsible for accidents involving the "human factor".

Distribution of the last two variables is established empirically.

Known methods for evaluating the sustainability of enterprises in emergency situations can be divided into some main approaches.

By the first approach the assessment is made using as a criterion the generalized criteria which includes certain indicators. The difficulty and complexity of the application of these methods of assessment lies in the fact that the number of indicators and their significance of these methods are significantly different for different authors, in addition, given values of parameters are not supported by the regulatory documents.

The second approach is to identify the most vulnerable links in the system, and evaluation of stability for these links, which will be the assessment of the stability of the whole system.

The third approach is to identify and develop integral evaluation criterion the stability of the facility. Moreover, this approach can be divided into two groups. The first group includes methods of evaluation using the generalized criterion on the basis of partial indicators. The second group involves the development or the search for a universal integral criterion, which will replace partial ones.

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Mechanics, Materials Science & Engineering, January 2016 – ISSN 2412-5954

Analysis of information sources has showed that the most promising methods of evaluating and predicting the sustainability of facilities in a man-made disaster are methods which use criteria Multiple-discriminant analysis based on the use of multifactor criteria.

It should be noted that there are several problems in application of known methods in practice, and the main of them is the mismatch in the specificity of the functioning and development of certain industries and their facilities.

Forecasting technological disaster is based on an assessment of the technical state of the object, its equipment and the assessment of the human factor and the environment. The result of the prediction of any man-made disaster is the determination of the risk of its occurrence, which depends on many factors. Let us consider accounting these factors on the example of an estimation of industrial structures and technological equipment, the accident on which usually can led to the disaster. [4].

The essence of the research The following main features were used in research: – The technogenic hazard is considered to be the main hazard; – All hazards are probabilistic by the inherently; – All sources of technogenic hazards, leading to emergencies, are divided into three classes by the nature of occurrence: 1) the human factor; 2) Technical (technological) factor; 3) factor of the environment; – Risk is a measure of hazard. It simultaneously takes into account the possibility of a disaster and an estimate of the risk; – The stability of control system is interpreted as ability to to perform specified functions, not only in normal conditions but also in emergency situations.

The risk of death in the industry is estimated at 10-6 or less per person per year [5]. Thus, during the process of design the operation of technical devices the risk at the level 10-6 per person per year can be accepted valid when the following requirements for risk analysis are provided: the problem of the risk was analysed; i.e. probability of occurrence of adverse events and the probability of it escalating into a emergency was estimated; all factors affecting emergency were considered, etc.

– Analysis carried out before making a decision and confirmed by the available data in a certain time interval; – Analysis and conclusion about the risk, obtained on the basis of the available data do not change after the occurrence of an adverse event; – Analysis and the results of control all the time show that the threat cannot be reduced at the cost of acquitted costs.

As a result of research the algorithm for estimating the stability of the industrial facility in the emergency was considered. (see Fig.1). [3] Estimation of the stability of the object is provided consistently in relation to the effects of each striking factor that may have a significant damaging effect on one or another element. The sustainability of object's element is characterized by the practical value of a factor, when the element is not broken and does not fail. However, in order to be able to predict the stability of the facility in the man-made disaster, it is required to calculate the risk of damaging factor and compare it to an acceptable risk.

In this paper we focus on the development of the block "Assessment of probability of occurrence internal and external emergencies and their impact on the working process of the facility."

A special software product «SKEVIA» has been developed (the developers are Alena Hancharyk and Viacheslav Kizimenko) in order to reduce and optimize processing time for the prediction of MMSE Journal. Open Access www.mmse.xyz

Mechanics, Materials Science & Engineering, January 2016 – ISSN 2412-5954

effect of emergency sources on production personnel and technological process. «SKEVIA» has a very simple and convenient user interface.[2]

Estimation of the stability of the object

Estimation of the probability of internal and external disaster and its impact on the performance of the enterprise объекта

Estimation of protection of facility's personnel

Estimation of the control system stability

Estimation of the physical stability of the buildings, and other systems

Estimation of the stability of the logistics and industrial links

Estimation of the readiness object to the restoration of impaired production

Fig. 1. Algorithm for estimating the sustainability of the industrial facility in emergency situations «SKEVIA» is designed for predicting possible consequences of man-made emergencies on the basis of a single industrial enterprise for one personal work place; it does not presuppose work via the Internet or LAN. This condition is required due to the protection of confidential information of the industrial enterprise. For the image of the program, see Fig. 2.

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Mechanics, Materials Science & Engineering, January 2016 – ISSN 2412-5954

Fig. 2. The image of «SKEVIA» The application deals with two possible ways of emergency development. The first way of emergency development is the explosion of a tank with propane at the railway station near the object (see Fig.3).

Fig. 3. Damage area

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Mechanics, Materials Science & Engineering, January 2016 – ISSN 2412-5954

Damage areas are displayed as concentric circles where the centre is in the explosion point. They show the geographic position of the points that are affected by various values of manometric pressure (heavy damage – 0,4 kg/sm2 = 39,24 kPa – within a radius of 306 m, average damage – 0,3 kg/sm2 = 29,43 kPa, light damage – 0,2 kg/sm2 = 169,6 kPa). Calculation results are shown in Fig. 3-4.

Fig. 4. Zones of gas-air mixture explosion base The second way is the emission of the chemically hazardous substance (ammonia) at the processing industry object that is situated nearby (see Fig.5).

Fig. 5. Zones of chemical contamination MMSE Journal. Open Access www.mmse.xyz

Mechanics, Materials Science & Engineering, January 2016 – ISSN 2412-5954

It is possible to estimate death toll after exposure to poisonous substances. After entering the number of the staff of the enterprise, the total number of victims as well as the number of people with minor and moderate injury and the number of the dead is calculated. Graphic construction is made on the cartographic basis loaded by the user. For user convenience it is possible to press any two points of the map and see the distance in meters below the map. All the objects the location of which is considered in the program as well as the distance between them are displayed on the map after clicking “Objects”. Saving of the maps that contain the data of calculations is done by clicking “Save” that creates a temporary file with the extension .bmp in the work directory of the PC. The program is undemanding towards the processor resources, it is easy to use as it does not require special skills apart from Windows interface basic work skills.

Thus, we have developed the system that significantly facilitates the work of an expert who deals with safety of industrial enterprise personnel. Output graphic information allows to imagine the scale of consequences after man-made catastrophes and to take rapid measures that are necessary for people’s safety.

Currently, with the development of information technologies software «SKEVIA» is being upgraded, which will provide more detailed development of the block algorithm, the stability of the industrial facility in an emergency (Fig. 1) "The evaluation of the probability of internal and external emergencies and their impact on the working process of the facility".

The following risks of man-made disaster will be analyzed: 1. The risk of unacceptable physical stability of buildings and structures; 2. The risk of failure of process equipment; 3. The risk of error in the work of administrative and management personnel and engineers; 4. The risk of errors in the work of service personnel; 5. The risk of failure of power supply systems; 6. The risk of unpreparedness of logistics; 7. Risk of influence of negative factors and working environment; 8. The risk of errors in the work of main production staff; 9. The risk of failure in the management systems; 10. The risk of failure in the systems of telecommunications.

All of these risks affect on the occurrence of man-made disaster at the facilities of electronic industry. If the values of three criteria are higher than acceptable risk, the calculation of the rest can be ignored. These criteria are: the limit of resistance to the shock wave, the limit of resistance to light radiation, as well as the limit of stability to the electromagnetic field (EMF). The novelty is a new criterion for the stability limit to EMF. If it exceeds the limit, then the entire electronic apparatus fails, control systems, which consist of electronic devices, will be denied, as well as technologies and equipment, i.e. the risk will exceed the permissible, therefore further payment other risks impractical.

In case the risk values are within an acceptable risk, we calculate the remaining risks. The worst option of these is selected, and its value will be the criterion for assessing the stability of the object of electronic industry.

Currently, the program units to the software «SKEVIA» are developed, taking into account all described risks, but there are practical difficulties in debugging these additions, as the majority of facilities of electronic industry in Belarus today are not able to conduct testing and debugging this changes.

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Mechanics, Materials Science & Engineering, January 2016 – ISSN 2412-5954

References [1] Kolodkina, V.M. (2001) Quantitative risk assessment of chemical accidents / V.M. Kolodkin, Murin A.V., Petrov A.K., Gorsky V.G. / Izhevsk: Publishing House "Udmurtia University", 2001 228 p. ISBN 5-7029-0260-2 [2] Levkevich, V.E. (2004) Environmental risk - patterns of development, forecasting and monitoring. Minsk.

[3] Dorozhko, S.V. (2008) Protecting the population and facilities in an emergency. Radiation safety: manual. Part 1. Emergency situations and their prevention/ Dorozhko S.V., Rolewicz I.V., Poustovit V.T. / 2nd ed. - Minsk, 2008. - 284 p.

[4] Dorozhko, S.V. (2008) Protecting the population and facilities in an emergency. Radiation safety: manual. In 3 hours. Part 2. The system of survival of the population and territories protection in emergencies / Dorozhko S.V., Poustovit V.T., Morzak G.I., Murashko V.F. /2nd ed., - Minsk, 2008. - 400 p.

[5] Medvedev, V.T. (2002) Environmental Engineering / Ed. by V.T. Medvedev. M., 2002.

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