AVMA Workforce Update

Tackling Today’s (and Tomorrow’s) Workforce Challenges

While COVID-19 is slowly becoming endemic, the disruptions it caused continue to exacerbate workforce challenges that were already evident before the pandemic. While all areas of the profession have been impacted, those providing services in rural areas and those in emergency and specialty practices have been particularly overwhelmed. And – front and center virtually everywhere – there is a very clear shortage of veterinary technicians and other staff. To effectively address these challenges with future-proof solutions, we must look holistically and collaboratively at the factors driving veterinary workforce supply and demand. The AVMA has undertaken and continues to support comprehensive workforce analyses to improve upon our existing data. As part of this process, the AVMA is actively seeking and considering information from as many sources and stakeholders as possible. Being deliberate and inclusive, and working together to gather, broadly share, and analyze robust information is tremendously important, because some remedies that have been suggested to improve our current situation will take years to implement, while having long-term and lasting effects felt across the profession that could include some unintended consequences. We anticipate some preliminary results from our workforce modelling studies will be available in the fourth quarter of 2022. Among other things, when complete, we hope these analyses will help the profession better understand the motivations and dynamics of those entering and leaving the veterinary workforce, including those limiting their hours of practice, focusing on relief practice, or transitioning from one segment of the profession to another. What we know about the supply of companion animal veterinarians Labor economics are incredibly complicated, and it can be very difficult to identify all the factors that impact the labor market and to obtain data that fully and accurately represent them. In volatile times such as these – with so many continuing stressors, evolving opportunities, and changing employer and employee expectations – doing so is even more challenging. Unfortunately, there has also been some inaccurate media coverage causing confusion. For instance, several news articles have suggested there are only 2,500 to 2,600 veterinary graduates entering the U.S. workforce annually. Actually, in 2021, there were 3,308 U.S. graduates and 1,197 international graduates (U.S. citizens) from AVMA COE-accredited schools added to the veterinary workforce in the United States. Approximately 3,470 (77%) of those veterinary graduates provide services for our nation’s pets. In addition, three new U.S. veterinary schools are on track to be graduating their first classes in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, and two additional U.S. colleges are under development. Putting this all together, by 2030 it appears we will have more than 5,100 veterinarians entering companion animal practice annually. This is based on what we know now, and our estimates are conservative. By 2030 it seems quite likely that class sizes of accredited institutions will have grown even more than anticipated. In addition, at least two additional international schools are seeking AVMA COE accreditation hoping to attract more U.S. students. What we know about the demand for companion animal veterinary services The aforementioned media coverage also equates all growth in the pet services market to an increased demand for veterinary services. However, growth in the market and growth in demand for veterinary services are not equivalent for multiple reasons. The “pet services” market, projected to grow 33% by 2030, includes many products and services unrelated to veterinary care, such as pet food, bowls, beds, grooming, and daycare. Only slightly less than one third of that 33%, or approximately 10%, is actually “veterinary services.” In addition, 33% growth as reported was not corrected for inflation. Inflation is conservatively estimated at 3% per year for the period from 2019 through 2030, so it follows that projected market growth may be largely attributable to increased cost, rather than to increased demand for services. For instance, according to the US Bureau of

Withlaborcostsincreasing,howdoIkeepmyprofitup?

Weknowthereisashortageofveterinariansacrossthecountry.Nearlyevery clientwehaveislookingtohireatleastonedoctorifnotmore.Someclients arealsostartingtoseethehiringchallengesdriftintotherestofthesupport staff.Iforeseethesechallengesgettingworsebeforetheygetbetter.

Basiceconomicstellusthatwhendemandexceedssupply, pricesincrease.

Thedemandforhiringdoctorsandstaffishighwhilesupplyislowwhich correlatestoemployeesdemandinghighercompensation.Weareseeingsome impressivecompensationpackages. Thedemandforveterinaryservicesisalsoveryhighwhichshouldcorrelateto hospitalsincreasingtheirfees.Whenyourlaborcostsareincreasingdueto shortsupply,thisisalsoareasonforyoutoincreaseyourfees.Increasingfees istheonlywayyouaregoingtobeabletogrowrevenueandgenerateaprofit, especiallyifyoucannotseeanymorepatientsbecauseyourschedulesarefull. Whenisthelasttimeyouincreasedyourfees?Doyoukeeptrackofyour averageinvoicecharge?Youshould!

Donʼtbeafraidofa10%feeincrease!

IfIgotothedentistoneyearandmybillis$100thenIgobackthenextyear forthesameserviceandmybillisnow$110,Idonʼtevennotice.Mostpeople wonʼt.Thisisa10%increase.Goforit!Youaregoingtoneedtoinorderto remainprofitable. Sure,youmaylosesomeofyourlowertierclientsduetoafeeincrease.Would thisbeallthatbadwhenyouareovercapacity?Wouldnʼtyouratherhavemore timetospendonyourhighertierclientsanyway? Whenwecompletevaluationsforourclients,wecoachthemonhowtheir expensesareliningupwithindustrybenchmarksandpointoutareasof opportunity.Thisincludeslaborcosts.Giveusacallifyouʼdlikeustocoach youtoo!

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(Workforce cont. from page 22 healthy. However, if the demand for veterinary services is overestimated, the need for veterinarians will be as well. Putting it all together Using the best currently available estimates for future demand for veterinary services, and accounting for retirees, the AVMA estimates the profession will need an additional 31,200 companion animal veterinarians in the workforce by 2030 (on an FTE basis). Considering the number of new graduates expected each year, the impact of new schools and incremental growth of class sizes, ECFVG and PAVE certificate holders, and the contributions of mixed animal practitioners who also treat companion animals, theoretically there will be approximately 42,900 additional graduate veterinarians focused on providing companion animal services by 2030. To understand what this really means, we need more information about what expectations for a veterinary workweek will be in this new era; how veterinarians will choose to deliver their services (e.g., traditional employment, mobile, relief); how better utilization of our teams’ skills and the adoption of technology will impact the efficiency of veterinarians; and how changing work and lifestyles, availability of discretionary income and spending choices, and strengthening of the humananimal bond will impact supply and demand for veterinary services. As an example, while we’re looking at supply, we need to consider that veterinarians want to work fewer hours, so they have more time for family and other interests. AVMA survey results indicate that about one-third of companion animal veterinarians would like to work one-third fewer hours than they currently do. To accommodate this, the number of these practitioners would need to be increased by about 10% (approximately 11,000 veterinarians). However, a veterinarian indicating they would like to work fewer hours does not mean they will actually do so, especially if that results in less income. No one has a crystal ball, but we do have a responsibility to ensure we are being as thoughtful and deliberate as possible when trying to understand supply and demand for veterinary services. It is important to recognize that these are bare-bones calculations, not an economic model, and the fact that the numbers being reported by various sources are so different is a clear indicator that we need to take a closer look. The more information and bright minds we bring to the table, the better our analysis will be. Getting the numbers right is critically important, because any changes we make based on those numbers are likely to have long-term impacts on patients, clients, and our profession. While we are digging more deeply, there are some areas we can focus on right now to help practices that are still reeling from the impacts of COVID and facing hiring challenges caused by today’s tight labor market. While ensuring a healthy pipeline of veterinarians is important, focusing on retention is critical. Workplace culture and support for wellbeing have always been important for retention, but they are even more important now as practices face staff shortages, particularly of technicians. The AVMA is committed to providing support for practices, including the continued development of resources on wellbeing, suicide prevention, student debt, burnout, and practice efficiency (including potential boosts to that efficiency associated with the thoughtful adoption of technology). One place where we can have an immediate impact is in addressing the veterinary technician shortage and ensuring opportunities for these professionals to work to the top of their degree. This will support their career growth and job satisfaction, while also improving the efficiency, effectiveness, and wellbeing of our teams. AVMA has shared some helpful resources at www.avma.org/technicianutilization.

Key Demographic Projections: •The number of active veterinarians in the U.S. is expected to continue increasing through at least 2030, with substantial increases in companion animal practitioners and small increases for food animal, equine, and mixed animal veterinarians. •The average starting salary for companion animal veterinarians is expected to rise from $88,000 in 2020 to $102,000 in 2030, and for food animal veterinarians from $80,500 to nearly $94,000. In the public sector, a net gain of veterinarians will be driven by more people working in higher education, industry/corporate, and nonprofit practice. •The U.S. dog population is expected to increase from 85 million in 2020 to over 100 million by 2030. The cat population is expected to grow from 65 million to over 82 million by 2030. •The proportion of households owning a dog is expected to grow from 38% of all U.S. households to 45% by 2030.