MVMA QUARTERLY - FALL 2022
AVMA Workforce Update: Tackling Today’s (and Tomorrow’s) Workforce Challenges
While COVID-19 is slowly becoming endemic, the disruptions it caused continue to exacerbate workforce challenges that were already evident before the pandemic. While all areas of the profession have been impacted, those providing services in rural areas and those in emergency and specialty practices have been particularly overwhelmed. And – front and center virtually everywhere – there is a very clear shortage of veterinary technicians and other staff. To effectively address these challenges with future-proof solutions, we must look holistically and collaboratively at the factors driving veterinary workforce supply and demand. The AVMA has undertaken and continues to support comprehensive workforce analyses to improve upon our existing data. As part of this process, the AVMA is actively seeking and considering information from as many sources and stakeholders as possible. Being deliberate and inclusive, and working together to gather, broadly share, and analyze robust information is tremendously important, because some remedies that have been suggested to improve our current situation will take years to implement, while having long-term and lasting effects felt across the profession that could include some unintended consequences. We anticipate some preliminary results from our workforce modelling studies will be available in the fourth quarter of 2022. Among other things, when complete, we hope these analyses will help the profession better understand the motivations and dynamics of those entering and leaving the veterinary workforce, including those limiting their hours of practice, focusing on relief practice, or transitioning from one segment of the profession to another.
What we know about the supply of companion animal veterinarians Labor economics are incredibly complicated, and it can be very difficult to identify all the factors that impact the labor market and to obtain data that fully and accurately represent them. In volatile times such as these – with so many continuing stressors, evolving opportunities, and changing employer and employee expectations – doing so is even more challenging. Unfortunately, there has also been some inaccurate media coverage causing confusion. For instance, several news articles have suggested there are only 2,500 to 2,600 veterinary graduates entering the U.S. workforce annually. Actually, in 2021, there were 3,308 U.S. graduates and 22
1,197 international graduates (U.S. citizens) from AVMA COE-accredited schools added to the veterinary workforce in the United States. Approximately 3,470 (77%) of those veterinary graduates provide services for our nation’s pets. In addition, three new U.S. veterinary schools are on track to be graduating their first classes in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, and two additional U.S. colleges are under development. Putting this all together, by 2030 it appears we will have more than 5,100 veterinarians entering companion animal practice annually. This is based on what we know now, and our estimates are conservative. By 2030 it seems quite likely that class sizes of accredited institutions will have grown even more than anticipated. In addition, at least two additional international schools are seeking AVMA COE accreditation hoping to attract more U.S. students.
What we know about the demand for companion animal veterinary services The aforementioned media coverage also equates all growth in the pet services market to an increased demand for veterinary services. However, growth in the market and growth in demand for veterinary services are not equivalent for multiple reasons. The “pet services” market, projected to grow 33% by 2030, includes many products and services unrelated to veterinary care, such as pet food, bowls, beds, grooming, and daycare. Only slightly less than one third of that 33%, or approximately 10%, is actually “veterinary services.” In addition, 33% growth as reported was not corrected for inflation. Inflation is conservatively estimated at 3% per year for the period from 2019 through 2030, so it follows that projected market growth may be largely attributable to increased cost, rather than to increased demand for services. For instance, according to the US Bureau of (cont. on page 24
