OCTOBER 26, 2011
Sign Up PRINT | TEXT SIZE
SPECIAL REPORT
Create an account or log in to see what your friends are doing.
| EMAIL | SINGLE PAGE The Man Who Knew Too Much - By David Rieff 599 people recommend this.
TechnoolgyW TalkieonaLfeo itsO Ifwn
Outside the Law - By Eric A. Posner 177 people recommend this.
Welcome to the Hybrid Age. BY AYESHA KHANNA, PARAG KHANNA | SEPT/OCT 2011
Facebook social plugin
IN THE THIRD WAVE, the Tofflers foresaw that advanced societies would no longer be content to see humankind as the pinnacle of evolution. Instead, they wrote, we are moving into a brave new world where knowledge will become an inexhaustible commodity and transform not just our economies but more deeply our sense of who we are -- and "not just for a generation, but forever," as they put it. A generation later, it is time to revive the Tofflers' methodology as we try to understand an incipient future in which technology has insinuated itself into every sphere and nook of human activity -- from the manipulation and replication of DNA to space exploration -- and in which humans continuously seek ways to speed up their biological evolution to match the breakneck pace of technological evolution. The only way to do that is to incrementally integrate with technology, launching an era of change and innovation that we call the Hybrid Age. If the first wave was agrarian and tribal, the second industrial and national, and the third informational and transnational, then the Hybrid Age is what the Tofflers might call the "Fourth Wave." In this new era, human evolution has become human-technology coevolution: We're becoming part of the machine, and it is becoming part of us. There is no adequate word in English to capture this complex entanglement of humans and technology. The German word Technik comes closest: It means not just technology, but the mastery of the methods and processes that shape and steer it. In today's emerging world, Technik can be something of a broad index of preparedness for the future Hybrid Age. It rejoins the scientific and mechanical dimensions of technology with a necessary concern for its effect on humans and society. So while today we talk about promoting democracy, tomorrow we will realize we should be promoting good Technik. Five characteristics differentiate this Hybrid Age from those that came before it: the ubiquitous presence of technology, its growing intelligence, its increasingly social dimensions, its ability to integrate and combine in new forms, and its growing power to disrupt, faster and on a larger scale than ever before in human history.
MOST VIEWED
MOST C OMMENTED
Coming Up Empty The Qaddafi Family Scrapbook The World According to Condi Outside the Law Gripping and Grinning with the Colonel The Man Who Knew Too Much Young Qaddafi and King Idris TODAY THIS WEEK
THE CALL TURTLE BAY
The hidden costs of defunding the U.N. Putin determined to avoid Occupy Moscow
BY COLUM LYNCH
BY JENIA USTINOVA
First, computers have become exponentially more powerful and cheaper at the same time. This trend is likely to continue for at least another decade, after which DNA computing -- literally using enzymes and molecules instead of silicon chips -- could bring us even cheaper nanoscale computers. Soon, extremely small computing machines and sensors will move from our smartphones and
converted by Web2PDFConvert.com
laptops into every single object we encounter in our daily lives, including our bodies. IBM estimates that by 2015, there will be 1 trillion devices connected to the Internet, constantly recording and sharing information. We will literally live in technology. Second, technologies will no longer be just dumb repositories of information that require humans to understand and process them. They will be intelligent, able to understand the data they collect and work both autonomously and in concert with each other. When IBM computer Watson trounced two human competitors on the game show Jeopardy this February, it was a great breakthrough in artificial intelligence: By answering questions that required contextual understanding, Watson exhibited language comprehension, the highest marker of human intelligence -- and few Americans batted an eyelash. Someday, we will look back at those three nights as the moment the Hybrid Age became real. Third, both the form and function of technologies will become anthropomorphic. Voice- and gesture-based commands will make interaction with machines more natural, and they will respond and react to us almost like humans. Even though their intelligence will be inferior to ours, we will find ourselves forming emotional ties to them. The love you have for your iPhone is just the beginning. In Japan, a young man recently married a video-game character. The more we immerse in online and virtual environments, the more our online behavior shapes our "real" behavior rather than simply mirroring it. Fourth, technology will combine in new and powerful ways. Forget about the Internet: As scientific fields ranging from neuroscience and biology to mathematics and physics mingle and mate, they'll produce new technological offspring capable of unimagined prowess. Already, the Hybrid Age is moving us well beyond information technology into entire new sectors like biotechnology, nanotechnology, clean technology, artificial intelligence, and robotics, as well as invigorating traditional ones like industrial manufacturing and energy production. The falling cost of computing has unleashed collaboration across scientific fields and given rise to whole new arenas of invention. Biomechatronics, for example, brings together biology, electrical engineering, and physics to create lifelike prosthetics that are almost as good as our natural human limbs. Lastly, the Hybrid Age is not only one of increasing technological presence, but also technological disruption. Brian Arthur, a professor at the Santa Fe Institute, writes in The Nature of Technology that unlike humans, technology can mature, diversify, and scale at an accelerating pace. The more technologies that exist, the greater the number of combinatorial possibilities, resulting in ever newer and more complex products that revolutionize industries. This has already happened with jet engines and semiconductors and is now under way with software and carbon nanotubes, whose combination of strength, elasticity, and thermal-conduction properties could revolutionize everything from bone repair to batteries. This means we will constantly witness technologies blowing apart old business models as they come to market faster than ever. And it's not just business models that will be affected. Take the coming advent of do-it-yourself manufacturing. At first blush, the United States' first-mover advantage in developing these affordable designer devices will empower its mom-and-pop shops to tailor-make niche products at cut-rate costs, threatening China's manufacturing base while reviving the U.S. economy. But if China suddenly loses revenue to America's heartland, how will it continue to recycle its vast foreign exchange reserves into U.S. Treasury bonds? In the end, one technological innovation in the United States could lead to its interest rates skyrocketing and economy tanking (again). Be careful what you wish for: The Hybrid Age is also an age of disruption. PREVIOUS 1 Like
2
3
See All Photo Essays
Ultimate Fighting Crickets
Haiti Doesn't Need Your Yoga Mat
November 2011 Cover Story America's Pacific Century Feature The Elephants in the Room In Other Words Written on the Wall See Entire Issue Preview Digital Edition
FP JOB BOARD President American Council on Science and Health New York, NY Linux Administrator II+ - Internation... Rackspace San Antonio, TX Professor Nonproliferation and Terror... Monterey Institute of International S... Monterey, CA More Jobs > Post a Job > Subscribe to FP Jobs by:
Apple recruits iTunes designer to build TV
Should kids get anthrax vaccine test? The McRib is back NPR host steps down
The Culture Gabfest, “Explain It To Me Like I’m a Golden Retriever” Edition The Effect Effect Advertisement: The Next Generation Virtual Workspace
NEXT
764 likes. Sign Up to see what your friends like.
Save big when you subscribe to FP.
Candorville: The Judge's Daughter A Peek at Elmo's Right-Hand Man GOP Campaign vs. the World
SUBJECTS:
Ayesha and Parag Khanna are co-directors of the Hybrid Reality Institute. Ayesha is author of Straight Through Processing for Financial Services. Parag is senior research fellow at the New America Foundation and author of How to Run the World: Charting a Course to the Next Renaissance.
converted by Web2PDFConvert.com
SHARE THIS ARTICLE:
More From FP
|
|
Around the Web
Micromultinationals Will Run the World - By Hal Varian Did Qaddafi's End Justify the Means? How the Obama administration bungled the Iraq withdrawal negotiations Liberals are musicians, realists are jocks John Podesta stepping down as head of CAP
Fox News Won't Air Wall Street Protester Who Humiliates Fox News (GOOD) It’s Curtains for the US — the Unapologetic Truth About Our Economy (Moneynews) The New King is Crowned on Alcatraz (www.redbullusa.com) Famous People With Psoriatic Arthritis (Health.com) The Best Gmail Add-On (GigaOM) [what's this]
Kleptocracy Watch: Feds Go After $2 Million Michael Jackson Collection
This Week’s 5 Biggest Signs of Decline
(26)
URGELT 12:27 PM ET August 15, 2011
HIDE COMMENTS
8 Behind-TheScenes Moments in Condi's New Book
LOGIN OR REGISTER
America Could Take Some Pointers from Mexico -- Really
REPORT ABUSE
Where's the Shock? I enjoyed the article, but when I read Future Shock, I was struck by its ambivalence as much as its insight. Yes, the future is exciting, yes, we have to learn to adapt to accelerated changes whose potential to improve humanity is large, but there's a larger downside than feeling bewildered by it all. Other prognosticators have offered darker visions which we are seeing in developing tech, particularly with respect to extending authoritarian controls over citizenry and the technology of warfighting. There is plenty of room for gloom. Then there is overpopulation, and climate change, and the ongoing extinction event which is so extreme that comparisons cannot be found without going back at least 62 million years. Biologists are telling us that we may no longer have commercially significant stocks of edible fish in the world's oceans by 2050, give or take a few years. If you know anything about DHA and EPA in human health, the Omega3 fatty acids only obtainable from ocean sources, you will be as worried as I am over this projected loss of these food sources. Too, capitalism appears to be racing towards its end-point. When automation replaces workers, they can't fully participate in the increasingly technological economy. As productivity accelerates, fewer jobs are needed. When workers are few and wealth is concentrated into too few hands, we won't have to wait long for a bloodbath. The Tofflers have secured their place in the firmament of prognosticators. You are right to celebrate their brilliance. But there is more to "future shock" than feeling bewildered over the rapid evolution of technology. It may be a shock we cannot survive, if we play our cards badly.
BRAUERR31 12:40 PM ET August 15, 2011
Agreed. @Urgelt I agree with what you have to say about this article. Definitely a let down with the contents of the actual article itself, however the title is sure captivating. Great marketing on their part! I'm not sure that technology will evolve as rapidly as some may converted by Web2PDFConvert.com
suggest, mainly because we are already used to the rapid pace that it evolves. Even something as simple as a flight simulator for mac computers has come a long way. Before it was nothing to write home about and now there are some fantastic games out there. Same goes for PS3 or Xbox 360 the technology is rapidly moving forward. I just want to see what technology will bring us in 20 more years, when my kids are playing video games.
HOMER81 9:49 PM ET August 15, 2011
Renewable energy?
FP2011 7:55 PM ET August 29, 2011
Agree..
ZHONGURO 2:45 AM ET August 16, 2011
It is amazing how much the Tofflers had insight 40 years ahead but I am shocked realizing how little progress has been made with the use of renewable energy, especially at the household level. Only a few people have been implementing the usage of solar panels and other renewable energy sources at this time. Home renewable energy strategies are well documented and easy to come by, especially now that these technologies are so readily available. Despite the fact that most electric energy providers will happily buy your surplus, people seem not to be inclined to take advantage of this opportunity.
I agree with your points, specially about the good food sources.. I just watched a documentary on all the stuff we doing to produce more and more chickens and cows.. and as you said fish is on the hook too. How they are using technology to improve our lives. From the report I watched, it was more how they used technology to mess up our lives. Any way, I can see how technology has helped to change some of the countries, like the twitter revolution in the middle east, how cell phones helped victims of disasters in several countries. How computers have helped us link together. Yet, we certainly find out soon enough if that was for good or bad.
very good web: === http://www.goodshopping100.com very good web,believe you will love it. FREE SHIPPING,accept pyapal discount including evisu jeans,watches shirts,bags,hat and the decorations trust me! Quickly snapping up right
TAKAMASHI 11:37 AM ET August 16, 2011
HELPDADDY 12:17 PM ET August 25, 2011
main problem is still energy I think evolution made on many areas but main problem of finding renewable energy sources stays still in front of us. Event computer pc technology needs energy.
Energy problem Agree with your post that energy is still the main problem. I think we are now at the era wherein finding renewable energy sources is becoming critical. Running out of fossil fuels is not a far-fetched scenario in the future. Now is the time for developing new sources of energy that are clean and renewable. Can you imagine a future full of pollution and scarcity of energy sources? God bless our children and the coming generations if that will be their future.
converted by Web2PDFConvert.com
SEO IN LONDON 11:12 AM ET August 17, 2011
KEITH MCDONALD 5:41 PM ET August 19, 2011
LIFEISLIFE 6:13 PM ET August 20, 2011
FP2011 2:51 AM ET September 1, 2011
ENERGY2CWORTH 8:08 AM ET August 20, 2011
Need new power resource For technology to truly move forward in my opinion there needs to a better medium as to how we power our gadgets and even cars for that matter. Batteries are still the universal medium as to how we power everything, electric cars are powered by batteries which the battery alone causes more harm to the enviroment than that of a standard vehicle, not to mention the cost of replacing them. In my view batteries are old hat, when we discover a new power source, whther that be efficient loar technology then and only then will technology move into a new age. seo in london
I remember I remember reading Future Shock while still in high school. I read it for fun, not as an class assignment. It is very eerie that a lot of the "predictions" Toffler made have been realized. I did not read The Third Wave as I was attending college and couldn't be bothered. It sounds like it is time to dust off my brain and read The Third Wave now.
me too Capitalism appears to be racing towards its end-point. When automation replaces workers, they can't fully participate in the increasingly technological economy. As productivity accelerates, fewer jobs are needed. When workers are few and wealth is concentrated into too few hands, we won't have to wait long for a bloodbath. The Tofflers have secured their place in the firmament of prognosticators like afgans in handmade jewelry. You are right to celebrate their brilliance. But there is more to "future shock" than feeling bewildered over the rapid evolution of technology
Technology I was just thinking how can it be possible that a kid married a video game character. Not that surprising, many people spend more time hooked to their phones than to the people that are close them. Many kids now are obese just because of the same reason. I remember when I was kid, all I did was play outside. Now a days kids are playing video games all day, instead of being outside playing, like we used to do. Adults, same thing, just with reality tv, they should pick an exercise program like P90Xp90x or something instead. No wonder our kids do the same thing. Have you ever notice couples "having a romantic dinner" only to find them both texting and checking their cell phones. It seems that we are already married to technology! Technology can be a blessing many times. However, many times can be destruction in this case, we are destroying our own bodies, our relationships. I was at the doctor's office while listening to a conversation: one nurse was saying that she took the cell phone from her kid as punishment. The kid puzzled asked: and how am I going to talk to my friends now? He had no idea, he can actually walk to them and talk! Technology! Love it or hate! Will make us better or will destroy us! We will see...
Special Issue To begin with, the whole exercise is quite bold and it seems that authors of individual pieces were briefed to paint a picture for 2025 using their respective lenses. While putting a timeline on forecasting future based on megatrends is particularly tenuous, not putting one might put off readers as they would not have a time-anchor to relate the future with. In my opinion, having the time-anchor is a better proposition for the reason that if the authors have got their megatrends right and articulated well the future outcome following those megatrends, it is likely that those outcome would materialize give or take a few years. On both these counts, I felt the individual pieces do a good job. The other thumbs-up for this report is the way the lead piece attempts converted by Web2PDFConvert.com
to start where Tofflers stopped. Whoever has read Future Shock and The Third Wave would distinctly remember the awe those two books aroused. There have been works before and after these but they have remained an important milestone for the students of futurism. It is a pity that macroeconomic aspects didn’t stand out in the piece on shape of global economy. For the interested, I would recommend reading of Fault Lines by Raghuram Rajan for the most influential insights into the emerging macroeconomic megatrends. I thought that pieces also missed to make much comment on mega corporations and business models. The Too-big-to-fail in Seo’s article might appear to be but he is not talking about the mega-corporations but ‘power of concentration’. While Varian’s concept on Micromultinationals is taken, he does not suggest that megacorporations would cease to exist. As APK put we would witness new business models in the face of changing realities of world, I guess the same would hold true for mega private sector corporations. The energy piece is also a missed chance to go beyond oil. Although there is no denying that oil still rules the roost, there are definite trends of technology innovation in non-hydrocarbon-linked energy that are likely to impact not just the energy users but also the way it is produced and transformed. Even if the word limit was restrictive, in my opinion those could have been mentioned. To sum it up, all the pieces in the special issue make an interesting reading. These do not belong to the category where we just read the conclusions and make a note of ‘key takeaways’. Just like Toffler books, these make you think and wonder what if the future is like foretold.
JAMESKNULL 6:53 PM ET August 26, 2011
Energy I'm pretty confident science will come through to overcome the energy crisis facing the world. Even with a lack of government funding and the shift towards private companies funding science for profit. When the global economy starts to understand that oil is a limited resource things will start to change in my opinion. How long will that be? I'd say 20 years at least. Barry - http://www.searchedmontonrealestate.ca
HANS HOWARD 1:38 PM ET August 30, 2011
The Future is here?
IRISHSILVER 11:03 AM ET August 31, 2011
Future
HOMER81 4:37 PM ET August 31, 2011
Today's Future
I remember when I was a kid, I watched sci-fi films and I was amazed about it. Fast forward to 20 years, I am living in the amazement I had when I was a kid. Technology is really taking our future. I will not be surprise if most of our cars are hovering or our helpers at home are mostly robots. I will not be surprise if you order watches online, you only make a wink. But my only worry is that modern humans are very dependent to technology. What if these technologies are gone overnight?
while some things are changed, some basics of life will always remain the same. i marvel at my two-year old's instinctive understanding of technology, and how he can navigate my smartphone to find his favourite videos, but he still gets a bigger kick out of going to the park and throwing stones into the pond. people will always need social interaction and fun, and no amount of facebook will replace that. (and thank goodness for that!)
Like it has been said here earlier, there is no doubt oil is still the main energy provider, but for how many time still? I can not imagine a future full of pollution and scarcity of energy sources. We are indeed at the era in which finding renewable energy sources is crucial. If the Tofflers had to write other books about today's future, I would be expecting to see a lot of innovating in the domain of home renewable energy for it can prevent a serious harm on our children and next future generations.
JULIEHOWARD1
Solar Energy converted by Web2PDFConvert.com
4:29 AM ET September 1, 2011
Although the governments are definitely pushing the whole green thing, there is less take up than there might be. Certainly people will find it financially beneficial but also, they are aware that governments change frequently and thus tarifs do too. sexywomen JH
RALOSUN 4:04 PM ET September 2, 2011
Solar energy, indeed @Homer81 I agree. Oil is harmful for the environment, not to mention that it cost loads to extract and then to ship to consumers. Renewable energy would be the key to those problems. I'd be looking forward for many more solar energy to be spread in common household usage over the next decades. @JulieHoward1 Yes indeed. Let's hope that the governments stay focused on the green objectives, and do not raise the costs of these too much as it takes higher place on the market. With less fuel usage governments will probably have less to spend on environmental issues.. They'd rather be interested in tomorrow's environmental conditions than today's budget.
LUISMCAFEE 12:40 PM ET September 5, 2011
Todos os Dias o futuro
JEFFREY PALIAK 11:51 AM ET September 6, 2011
Futur is closer then we think
Acho que chegou para todos , Parabens amigo JosĂŠ Luis
All this new technology is evolving extremely fast. When you think about it, all the technology has come a long way in such a short amount of time that it makes us wonder what will be invented in 1, 2 or even 5 years from now. For now, the craze is all about iPad, Android Tablet, smartphones. But eventually, we might have glasses or even contact lenses that do virtually the same thing that computers do today. You also have the robots, Japanese are coming out with some crazy robot technology these days. Will these robots some day have their own mind and be able to make judgments on their own? I am sure they already do.
RIDGE 9:13 PM ET September 6, 2011
stimulated Our brains are stimulated by new technologies to the point where we can almost not able to think rationally about anything i.e. maths, logic, best insurance sports, love The generation aged 7-14 today is among the least literate ever!!!! no wonder when kids as young as 2 are using iphones and ipads to do their maths homework for them
EZONLINEATM 5:13 AM ET September 7, 2011
<a href="http://HealthUpdates4U.com">Great Thinkers</a>
J.LAW 1:53 PM ET September 7, 2011
Technology Will Take on a Life of Its Own!
The Tofflers wrote epic books. Look forward to reading their memoirs.
converted by Web2PDFConvert.com
September 7, 2011
MR.GABANSAMA 6:29 AM ET September 17, 2011
I believe that in the near future technology really will take on a life of it's own because it is so sophisticated as of today. Maybe in a couple of years I wont have to Bill My Parents and will only have to tell my technology to print out money. Boy wouldn't that be a blast!
Sorry.. I Dont Think So.. I dont believe that in the near future technology will take on a life of it's own. There will always be human behind to control them. Technology have no emotional factor to take care their on life. Maybe one day there will be no technology and this will be happen. Pelaburan Emas
LUISMCAFEE 1:03 PM ET September 14, 2011
Desentupidora, desentupimento e Hidrojateamento
MADCLIVE 12:57 PM ET September 15, 2011
Interesting article
MR Desentupidora, busca oferecer serviços de qualidade , Efetuamos desentupimento, esgotamento de fossa , limpeza de caixa dagua e hidrojateamento de alta pressão , empresa é especializada em desentupimento. MR está prestando serviço a mais de 10 anos no mercado entre em contato consoco José Luis
Interesting article. Some good really good points made above about technology taking on a life of its own, I agree with some of them. Thanks for the article. Kindest regards, Mad DJ Clive
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER | VISIT US ON FACEBOOK | FOLLOW US ON RSS | SUBSCRIBE TO FOREIGN POLICY ABOUT FP | MEET THE STAFF | FOREIGN EDITIONS | REPRINT PERMISSIONS | ADVERTISING | CORPORATE PROGRAMS | WRITERS’ GUIDELINES | PRESS ROOM | WORK AT FP SERVICES:SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES | ACADEMIC PROGRAM | FP ARCHIVE | REPRINT PERMISSIONS | FP REPORTS AND MERCHANDISE | SPECIAL REPORTS | BUY BACK ISSUES
PRIVACY POLICY | DISCLAIMER | CONTACT US
1899 L STREET NW, SUITE 550 | WASHINGTON, DC 20036 | PHONE: 202-728-7300 | FAX: 202-728-7342 FOREIGN POLICY IS PUBLISHED BY THE SLATE GROUP, A DIVISION OF THE WASHINGTON POST COMPANY ALL CONTENTS ©2011 THE SLATE GROUP, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
converted by Web2PDFConvert.com